I just got back from the beach. Did I miss anything?

I'm getting so sick of see Daddy Warbucks and listening to his BS. January can't get there soon enough.

I've managed to get hold of some outtakes from this spot.

YouTube -

So basically we need to keep mortgage rates artifically low at the taxpayers expense.

And we need to make sure that our cash flowing "assets"(FHFA mortgages paying 6.5%) are more than our borrowing rate(treasuries).

Sound doable?

unwatchable obfuscation. He set up FNM and FRE to have the problem they now have.

I mean, look at the reality.

The charter was implied govt backing. If it was basically actual and not just implied, why not make it explicit. And if it was not true, which we now know to be false, why not say it is false. Why is it that this ambiguity was allowed to persist for so long when the cost of that ambiguity would be so high?

So, first he lets the ambiguity continue. Then, knowing full well how he already felt about the matter (that a bailout would happen if needed, meaning he knew the implicit backing was more) he goes on to push these two goliaths (which are too big, so he says)into gettting bigger. And NOW he tells us the size is the problem? This is just horse manure.

He knew they were thinly capitalized, and he knew that prices were falling. But he allowed them to resist capital raising measures when he knew the implied backing was a guarantee?

I mean, hello people, wake up~ Youve been had from day 1 with this tool. All he has ever been about is bailing out his buddies through the taxpayers largesse, that they would never have acceded to. Disgustin!

So after this, what other powder do they have dry?

Only question left to answer in my mind is who is gonna bail out the treasury?

Paulson would not answer the question about how much it will cost tax payers.

I am shocked he didn't use Tanta's answer that these were actually assets and everyone was a moron for thinking this is an issue.

Paulson also said and I loosely quote "we need to get these companies run to do what they do best/well." - I agree with him there. They should be lending to middle income people that want to buy an average home when they have 20% down payments. That would bring housing down aggressively across the country and would save rational people (savers) from competing with gambles (no money down folks).

Paulson's body language is riddled with insecurity and mistruths in my opinion.

SR

OH MY!!! Lokk what the taxpayers inherited

Fed Deemed Fannie, Freddie Capital Low, Fisher Says

Fed Deemed Fannie, Freddie Capital Low, Fisher Says (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Federal Reserve examiners deemed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's capital reserves too low prior to the U.S. Treasury Department's takeover of the mortgage finance companies, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said.

We concluded that the capital of these institutions was too low relative to their exposure,'' Fisher said in response to an audience question after a speech in Austin, Texas. Further,that capital in and of itself was of low quality.''

Um, no. When you subsidize the middle class...YOU MAKE THEM LOWER CLASS BY DEFAULT!

Well, this is just peachy. I guess the FCB's that are being made whole for their purchase of agency paper, will turn around and by treasuries to pay for the bail out...or something.

Cheers,

1.They been working on this for a long time? A lot of people have been doing work on this?

And yet, there is no price tag, wtf?

2.Watch this from a NLP, pov?

3."These companies are too big" read as "Weezz gunna bust 'em up and piece it off to WS"

I disagree I think for years these GSE served a purpose but like most gov programs over time they became abused. The severance packages today seem far - right Tanta?

I think by diversifying mortgage risk across the country with conforming 20% down mortgages with reasonable caps ($417k or so) the system worked and spreads were likely very fair.

Once housing got too expensive (unaffordable) then FNM pushed and stretched and created all these great new 'assets.'

It is shocking that there isn't more outcry about what has happened over the past few years with housing. It's a massive asset inflation while the average person makes the same wage as a few years ago - that is how you make the middle class the lower class or debt slaves. That is criminal and that is what gets some people here so annoyed when Tanta posts sillyness about NY Times or US Today.

SR

"we did not sit down with a calculator" = we had not choice (concerning cost to tax payers)

Putting artifical floors under any good or service is always bad.

Econ 101

Well, did the mortgage rates actually go down today?

Kneel_before_Zod,

"Putting artifical floors under any good or service is always bad."

Yep, increases supply, and reduces demand. Kind of the exact opposite of what you're shooting for.

Cheers,

BFD about the mortgage rates. Yeh, if they go up it's a disaster, but if they go down, it doesnt much change the calculus that prices are still way too high! And whatever juice you can get out of lower rates is going to be more than overhelmed (overall) by the continuing loss of jobs and incomes. And this fool has the nerve to suggest here that the housing market bust will be over soon (it was somewhere early in the interview.) Total joker.

SR,

Blink rate and accessing cues suggest something other than the unvarnished truth...

Mortgage rates did go down about 45 bps. Most other spreads did not budge.

Anyone else notice that?

SR

Mortgage rates aren't going to sink. Treasuries are going to rise to meet mortgage rates.

The change in riskiness of the underlying collateral has affected treasuries more so than houses with this latest fiasco.

They keep talking about "confidence". I work for a bank that's in decent shape. There is confidence about our situation, but for the housing market in general, I don't think so.

Paulson also talks about making sure mortgages are available. Let me ask a stupid question. What would happen if there were virtually no new mortgages for a few months?

Well, new entities would pop up, and firms who were either just servicers or had minor damage from the mortgage market would get into the business in a big way. They would probably have tough underwriting standards. They would probably charge higher interest rates. But really, would having mortgage rates rise from 6.5% to 7.5% or 8.0% be a nightmare?

At most other times and places, that kind of an interest rate move wouldn't cause much trouble. It wouldn't cause much trouble for new borrowers in the current market. It's the banks with REOs and overextended homeowners who really care about interest rates and availability of credit. They want to get out of their positions with as little damage as possible. When your 20% loss on a particular property portfolio goes to 30% because things take longer to sell and interest rates make them slightly less affordable, you care.

The banks who are on the edge, with moderate problems, are praying that: A. Their short term credit facilities don't go poof. B. They don't get a new flood of REOs. C. The REOs they already have get sold reasonably quickly. D. The loans they bundled up and sold off don't get returned to them for reasons like fraud on the application.

THE NEXT GREAT QUOTE OF THE CRISIS

When asked by Liesman at about the 2 minute mark how much the bailout would cost, tens of billions, hundreds of billions?:

PAULSON: There is no specific analysis. We didn't figure it out with a calculator.

TO REITERATE: THERE IS NO SPECIFIC ANALYSIS

OMFG

I disagree I think for years these GSE served a purpose but like most gov programs over time they became abused.

More generally that whenever you have a period of voter apathy and ignorance, the government itself is likely to become an instrument of abuse.

What good will more regulation do if the regulators are all in the pockets of private industry?

The risk is that ALL long term rates go up and thus take libor based mortgages with them. Then we have traded one specific problem - mortgage spreads - and turned it into a system wide problem. Think early 80s. While I am not sure this will happen I do know that news like this isn't good. Some things in life are pretty black and white.

SR

"who is gonna bail out the treasury?"

Kind of a silly question. Who do you think?

I'm getting so sick of see Daddy Warbucks and listening to his BS. January can't get there soon enough.

Just remember that the worst abuses in the markets had their origins in the mid 90s.

This was when Robert Shiller first made his plea to government officials that we were headed down the same path as in the 1920s.

He was ignored.

Hang that bastard now. He's guilty!

Democracy is a form of government that cannot long survive, for as soon as the people learn that they have a voice in the fiscal policies of the government, they will move to vote for themselves all the money in the treasury, and bankrupt the nation.

Hey if I am bailing out the Treasury, will I at least get a stupid T-shirt?

Here's hoping Marx was wrong.

EEcon

People will do anything for a T-shirt. Including willfully enslave generations of their progeny.

I am marking my calendar. I suspect we will see within about 4 months the "good bank-bad bank" separation. Parts of these operations will be spun off with clean balance sheets, to write only new loans. I am unsure if they will have explicit federal guarantees. However, I expect the new entities will operate for a year or two and then be privatized.

Paulson: "The housing downturn is at the heart of the problems that our economy is facing right now."

NO!!!

The housing UPTURN was at the heart of the problems that our economy is facing right now.

I think they will return as private companies. My guess is they'll soon be known as Fannie Mao and Freddie Xiac.

China's gunna own yo' doubley-wide.

One more thing: it's important to frame the conversation that way if we're ever going to have any hope of preventing these bubbles in the future.

"A lot of people have been doing work on this for a long time." (paraphrasing)

At this point, an ACTUAL reporter would have asked: "Were they already working on it when you told Congress this was highly unlikely to ever be necessary? How do you explain that?"

Paulson: "There is no analysis [about how much this will cost taxpayers.] We didn't sit there with a calculator and figure this out."

Uhh...he says this as reassurance? Is it a good thing that they have no idea of what this might cost us in a worst case scenario?

Democracy is a form of government that cannot long survive, for as soon as the people learn that they have a voice in the fiscal policies of the government, they will move to vote for themselves all the money in the treasury, and bankrupt the nation.

Hahah... well maybe that's an argument in favor of fiat currencies. They can vote themselves all the money in the treasury, only to find it worthless.

That'll teach them.

solohedger,

""Were they already working on it when you told Congress this was highly unlikely to ever be necessary? How do you explain that?""

Were they working on this when you told them to go out and raise capital? All those preferred shares that were recently sold to investors who are now holding crap?

Cheers,

Paulson: "There is no analysis [about how much this will cost taxpayers.] We didn't sit there with a calculator and figure this out."

Uhh...he says this as reassurance? Is it a good thing that they have no idea of what this might cost us in a worst case scenario?

There's no forethought being applied here.

Hence the endless series of disasters.

KbZ,

Well then Paulson is falling down on the job by not offering that inducement to help sell the beneficial effects of nationalizing FNM & FRE...go get him straightened out!

The US should outlaw retarded presidents appointing numbskull appointees from investment banks.

The US should also outlaw pork sushi.

The market and savvy know this: Every warm body that has good enough credit, savings, and cash flow have their seats already in a house and probably at a low fixed rate set in 2003. The rest are flailers who overbought, gamed the system, speculated. This market is slowly flushing that rot out, although some bottom pickers are rushing the trough still. However in cleansing the gangrene, demand for everything will shrink, unemployment will soar, currency will devaluate, and taxes will be rapacious. Flimflam is out but unfortunately a large portion of the majority and formerly solvent homeowners are going to fail. Pulled down by their fellows in the insidious chain of monkeys.
Deep scouring depression is a comin'. Cannot be avoided now. Even very good and prudent people are going to be hurt for decades.

Steve asks will this move the ball forward?

Hank says, yes, his time, we've really got our shit together. All those other times . . . well, let's not talk about those. This move is the move to end all moves.

This move is just an act of desperation. Just like all the silly alphabet soup facilities the FED created. It won't work, but it will hurt.

Cheers,

ac writes:

Paulson: "There is no analysis [about how much this will cost taxpayers.] We didn't sit there with a calculator and figure this out."

Uhh...he says this as reassurance? Is it a good thing that they have no idea of what this might cost us in a worst case scenario?
There's no forethought being applied here.
Hence the endless series of disasters

... this statement is so "enormous" we all focused on it
as I posted above, the logical meaning is they had NO CHOICE

The GSEs haven't been operating in a vacuum. First, they were privatized (for what reason? - they had been stable and were earning money).

Then the Investment Banks were let loose in the markets (Thank you ex-Sen. Phil Graham (PhD) for your several hundred page late-at-night modification of the laws on the firewall between IB and Commercial Banks as Chair of Senate Finance (with no debate!). Yes, the same Sen. Graham that was an advisor to McCain (and said to the the next Treas. Sec.) before he called the US citizens whiners - and is now back on McCain's 'informal' team).

Then the hedgies, IB's and CB's multi-layered the mortgage debt through leverage obtained by various forms of asset backed (LOL) securities that noone understood. Why was this allowed?

I won't complete this litany, but this isn't just a GSE failure, it is a failure of the financial system due to greed by big financial players of several flavors. Can we spell lobbyists and insiders - give and you shall receive?

Maybe re-privatizing the GSEs someday is a solution, but I don't see that as an article of fact, but one of faith. Faith-based policy making is the hallmark of the 'market always solves the problem' crowd (with the accompanying faith that less regulation is always better). With appropriate 'banker's caution' there is nothing inherently wrong with the Fed. gov't backing mortgages as long as the private players who initiate the loans are regulated within an inch of their life and made to pay for their mistakes.

Paulson was choosing his words carefully, but the intent to deceive was patent. Count how many times he was blinking fast and looking upwards and you tell when the lies weren't rehearsed enough.

Note he gave no justification for making the Treasury 'contribution' (ack!) junior to all the GSE debt(bonds). There was no analysis of how much this could cost if the bad/worst case occured? Bullshit!SELLOUT!

Only one logical conclusion flows from the current American Economy. Default on the debt followed by war with our creditors. As has been pointed out we do not have the military strength, oil reserves or capital to fight another world war. We do have nuclear submarines off all of our creditors shores.

History is literally an open book with which you can draw the obvious conclusions.

The only topic we should be discussing is how to stop this series of events from happening.

The only topic we should be discussing is how to stop this series of events from happening.

Well, a good place to start is not reelecting the lying bastards that since 2001 have controlled the executive branch of the government and not pretending that McCain - who backed BushCo every time he could, particularly when he wanted the 2008 nomination represents 'change'. Change of a few faces, maybe. Change in direction: not on our lives.

Want more of the same? Elect McCain/Palin and you get reformulated Bush/Cheney - but its still the same conservative faith-based policy.

We are way past pretending it matters which party is in charge.

The democrats are complicit in every decision made by government.

cnn money is reporting a low 2.1% increase in consumer borrowing as bad news for the economy. More would be better?

Business, financial, personal finance news - CNNMoney.com

Also, if I understand the history, the originally public GSEs were privatized when they became profitable. I'd be happy to have profitable GSEs contributing to positive cashflow without raising taxes.

Long way down the road if ever. But not unthinkable if you take the very long view.

Looking at that creep just made me vomit in my mouth.....a little. If I would have had the sound on....it would have been a full fledge deluge of entrails and partilally digested B.S. that these clowns have been shoving down my throat for almost a year. When will this prison term end.....? The end can't get here fast enough!

The whole interview could have been shortened with a simple "The GSEs couldn't roll over their debt."

how to stop this series of events from happening.

something about physics rings a bell...
equal but opposite force

what could that be?

Paulson MSNBC Audio :

Direct Link
Podcast Link

I'll try and keep up with the audio rips. The audio works well for the drive/ride home.

we have so long until FDIC Friday, I sure hope we get some more hints on who is going to fail next!

Paulson never said they were well capitalized. Lockhart did. He's still the regulator.

But now that the fed knows they are not adequately capitalized, how undercapitalized are they - in DOLLARS, like how much will it cost to get them stable today ?

Paulson is a crook.

They steal from the taxpayer to reduce mortgage rates to prop up an inflated asset to be purchased by the taxpayer.

No ponzi scheme here...move along.

Now the govt can open the flood gate and buy 3 houses per illegal in the US to spur growth!

The money grab continues as the rich elite soak the working slave homedebtor middle class.

Hey Homedebtor working stiffs unite. maybe fnm/fre scam will be used to forgive all your debts.

Since Bill slick clinton took over in 1992 it has been all down hill in terms of ethics and corruption. This includes bush the serial giver too.

I realize this is probably the contrarian opinion on CR, but I thought Paulson came off as much more "in-touch" with the real problems than most of the other people involved in the mess. With the exception of some spin BS (eg: housing prices "back to normal"), everything he said made sense, in a "doomed system, what can you do" sort of way.

For example, his telling the GSE boards they were not at fault, since their dual mandate and laughable regulations created by Congress decades ago really created the problem they are currently in: pretty much true, as far as I can tell. I don't know what people expected... them not to take advantage of the legal leeway Congress gave them to maximize their profits? Their existence is the problem, not the fact they are operating as allowed by the stupid laws Congress made.

He's totally right: they have gotten too big to fail, conservatorship is probably the least bad option, and the next administration is going to need to figure out what to do about it. The best we can hope for is that they don't repeat the same mistakes again (ie: don't create enormous pseudo-government entities to manipulate the market and lobby Congress with weak oversight and conflicting goals), and clean up the mistakes previous administrations have already made (eg: winding down the existing GSE's).

PS: The dodge to the "what did you tell the boards" question was kinda funny... like anyone couldn't guess how exactly that conversion went.

--
Born-and-bred dopes like to be ruled over by manipulative Crooks. Sensible people thru most of history have liked to be ruled by kings.

Israelites were not happy with 'democracy' with division of labor among tribes and they demanded that God give them a king. The golden age of the Israelites was under the kings. The best the Romans had was under the three emperors during Marcus Aurelius era.

History, biblical or otherwise, is immaterial to modern era dopes who have gained new knowledge about human institutions. All that new knowledge consists of brainwashing from birth. And it shows.

Born-and-bred American dopes have no idea how evil the banking and finance Crooks, BFNYC, really are and can be. They will find out the hard way. People are not told who were behind many of the modern wars and revolutions. We are dealing with evil. Bernanke, Greenspan, Paulson, etc. are faces of modern evil. Yeah, America's Crooks have a global empire and have spread their scams and schemes to most of the world.

Disaster led by financial collapse will engulf the whole world. The main culprits are BFNYC.

Jas

Hey Zod, quote your sources next time....I have othing against Karl other than his system of government failed as well...I guess we are all phuked.

Karl Marx, known as
the 'Father of Communism' and himself a student of political science,
stated: 'Democracy is a form of government that cannot long survive, for as
soon as the people learn that they have a voice in the fiscal policies of the
government, they will move to vote for themselves all the money in the treasury
and bankrupt the nation.

"Just remember that the worst abuses in the markets had their origins in the mid 90s."

Bull shit.

Jim in Portland writes: With appropriate 'banker's caution' there is nothing inherently wrong with the Fed. gov't backing mortgages as long as the private players who initiate the loans are regulated within an inch of their life and made to pay for their mistakes.

Ah, Jim, such innocence. Don’t get tripped up with the word “private.” The person who supplies the service of regulation is also a human being, and as such, has interests, PRIVATE interests (boiled down by one successful politician, LBJ, to a desire for money, power, sex or fame.)

People good at finding ways to help a regulator get what he humanly wants are good at bending him to their purpose. As a result regulations never work, at least for very long. The regulator is always captured.

Private enterprise is closer to a system where players pay for their mistakes. But “private enterprise” is another u-topia, something that exists no-where.

What does exist is our fierce desire to sustain our own independence. If we can find ways to do so, we fend off the goons, because independence is precisely this, that is, independence is civilized people finding ways to fend off the goons. If we fail to do so, we become enslaved by their crude and stupid, but strong, will to power.

Nick writes:
I realize this is probably the contrarian opinion on CR, but I thought Paulson came off as much more "in-touch" with the real problems than most of the other people involved in the mess.

Yes, the GSE issues started decades ago however... Taking a superficial look at what has transpired just this past year a few questions come to mind that Hank should have considered:

If Hank knew that the shit was gonna hit the fan then why push F&F into getting bigger?
Why set them up to fail by forcing them to relax lending standards (Alt-A, ARMs, Jumbo Prime...)?
Why allow them to run what is essence were hedge funds using some of their riskier portfolios?
Why relax their capital cushion requirements in the face of rising risk?
Why not take them to task regarding their 'book' and demanding a real earnings report?

Didn't they give Lockhart's predecessor at OFHEO the bum's rush when he did a study of systemic risk?

""who is gonna bail out the Treasury?"

Perhaps we should consider downsizing government instead?.

Not a political move to help McCain? Is that why one of the guys taking over the nationalized entities is a McCain right hand man? This is blatant politics.

We didn't sit there and figure this out with a calculator.

We only used the calculator when figuring up our enormous bonuses we earned thanks to the flawed mathematics that created this mess.

For all of you armchair economists, I am curious of your assessment of the economic implications of the alternative as you seem to strongly believe that our Nation would have been better off. And explain how we the people would be better off (I know, it's much easier to complain than explain).

Everybody, check this out:

Fannie, Freddie Get Tax Pass, Too - Tax - CFO.com

Wouldn't it be nice if the Internal Revenue Service issued a new tax rule that applied just to your company to help it retain all the net-operating losses it could? In that way, the NOLs could be used over the next 20 years to offset income, and reduce the company's tax bill.

That's what Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson did for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on Monday, when he had the IRS issue Notice 2008-76, which essentially allows the two government-sponsored enterprises to retain all of their NOLs, despite a change of control of ownership, tax expert Robert Willens told CFO.com.

Under the tax code — specifically Section 382 — NOLs are severely limited when there is a change of control. The rule is in place to prevent acquiring companies from buying up targets just to gain access to their NOLs. The NOLs for Fannie and Freddie are substantial. Over the last four quarters, Fannie and Freddie recorded about $14 billion in aggregate losses.

In essence, Paulson changed tax law so that the two lenders aren't paying more in taxes to the government as a result of that same government becoming their controlling investor. When the government structured its bailout of the two mortgage lending giants, it seized control of Fannie and Freddie by buying up $1 billion worth of senior preferred stock in each GSE. The plan also stipulates that Fannie and Freddie will pay a 10 percent annual dividend on the preferred stock owned by the government; and no other dividend can be paid out without the permission of the Treasury Department.

If the Treasury Department were simply another company, such a takeover would constitute a change of control under the tax code. But the new ruling creates a big exception for the two mortgage lenders. And while the IRS ruling was issued without any basis in law, says Willens, the NOL provision of the bailout was done "very effectively." He explains that the new rule eliminates the "testing dates" that normally would have applied to Fannie and Freddie, or any other company, in the event of a takeover.

Etc.

Only one logical conclusion flows from the current American Economy. Default on the debt followed by war with our creditors. As has been pointed out we do not have the military strength, oil reserves or capital to fight another world war. We do have nuclear submarines off all of our creditors shores.

Agreed. Eventual war with China is very real , and could come within 20 years. Proxy wars are certain.

The US has a policy of encirclement toward China, from Korea, Japan, through the Philippines. The other strategy: own the choke points in the oil supply system. Iraq was important. Iran is key.

From a new interview with economist Michael Hudson:

"It is pure hypocrisy for Wall Street’s Hank Paulson to claim that all this is being done to 'help home owners.' They are vehicles off whom to make money, not the beneficiaries. They are at the bottom of an increasingly carnivorous and extractive financial food chain."

Mike Whitney: An Interview with Michael Hudson on the Worsening Debt Crisis

And explain how we the people would be better off ...

Seeker, haven't you been reading here? These posters can't explain anything because, as Tanta pointed out yesterday, most of them don't even know the difference between an asset and a liability on a balance sheet. They knee-jerk their political philosophy into economic terms and then when the numbers don't bear them out call them "cooked" and point to other numbers that back up their pet theory. Jas is acutally talking about them, although I'm not sure if he realizes it. Look no further at those in office because these are the people that vote. Welcome to the new millennium in the US.

Of course the situation was made to be what it is with stupid laws and regs on the GSEs in the first place. How could the outcome have been any different? And to blame the banks is quite besides the point because, you know, no one held a gun to anyone's head and made them sign off on a mortgage for a property they had no hope of affording. So the blame belongs to EVERYONE, and that includes ANYONE who was looking for double-digit returns in the last ten years or any day traders and other market participants out there that put management into the position of managing a company to the market without regard to effect to keep their jobs.

But, of course, no one here will blame themselves, will they? But you know, I take the good times with the bad, and hope in the end, that my investment just make more money, overall, than they lose. And now is a time of loss. Suck it up.

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