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Recent Recommendations
Got Puts?
Thanks, Popeye.
Sorry for all the posts - someone (Lehman) made me get up early today!
Best to all.
OT but related FYI: Google apparently took a licking from market reaction to changes for the government-sponsored -- now government-controlled -- mortgage giants. While the broader stock markets rallied world-wide, Google shares fell by more than 5% to close regular trading at $419.95 apiece, a nearly half-year low. And the San Jose Mercury News blames institutional investors who sold off Google stock to cover losses wrought by investments in shares of Fannie and Freddie.
Woohoo!
CR has to many posts? rofl, not possible
It's probably not limited to WaMu.
Berkshire Hathaway tells subsidiary to stop insuring bank deposits above the amount guaranteed by the federal government
I'd thought he never stopped writing insurance, but just raised premiums enough to encourage folks to go elsewhere. Maybe no price is high enough to ensure jumbo bank deposits.
Damn, I almost closed my WaMu account a couple weeks ago, but didn't. I don't keep much there though, so in a way it'll be interesting.
Looking to me like another of those miraculous "bounce off the previous close" (BOPC) days for the Dow.
Who could have seen this coming?!
So.......as a complete amateur and dabbler in things financial, now that WM is at 2.40, would it be time to buy?
I say this because Bear went to heaven at $8. A pure specualative move, but what are the known downsides?
I think you woke up the pump monkeys
Wow! Beautiful move right at 11:30, huh?, seems I've seen that move before right on the clock. Nothing like a public squeeze to make you feel warm and fuzzy.
Yeah pump monkeys i guess..wtf just happened?
Quadruple witching today. WWW. Maximum volatility. Looking to take advantage of any rally to short more.
I don't think that last 100 point pop on the dow was "organic"
Sorry for all the posts - someone (Lehman) made me get up early today!
It's kind of an eventful period, oh host with the most. =)
Crap - I really liked their retail banking operation.
Gotta start looking for a new home for basic checking acct service.
But who? BoA, Wells? Gag! Those 2 are the banking antichrists.
WM: burn baby burn.
that poor (new, and rich) CEO.
With all we've seen over the last year, I am more convinced than ever that we have the freest, most transparent, and equitable stock market in the world. Please please hurt me some more, because I know I'VE been bad! And Mr. Fuld has been good! Make sure to reward him handsomely.
Good thing fundamentals are strong
Wow, miss a day...
So let me get this straight. The spread is in a sense the risk premium perceived by sellers of default swaps. Higher the premium, higher the risk.
What's standard for a bank this size?
I can't get the hub to move the WM account. It's open on Saturday.
Can I hire chimpanzees to slap down my SKF and gold when it gets froward?
Big pizza party on Friday!
Do you want butter or jam on you Wamu?
So who goes first LEH, WM, or DSL?
I REALLY don't understand the CDS spreads, except as a few people doing very strong bets that WaMu will fail completely.
Those actually buying the CDS at 40% are betting there is a >40% that WaMu will honor $0.00 of that debt, right?
Its useless as a hedge, because if you are HEDGING WaMu debt, and think there is a >40% chance of it imploding, you just sell it now for $.90 on the dollar and get out good.
And even as a failure-bet, I find it hard to believe that its more cost-effective than a $1 strike-price put-option.
I don't know, but the banks have a lot of sudden extra reserves in their employees pants!
So does anyone have any recommendations on where to put my money? Sounds like it's about time to pull it all out of wamu so I don't have to wait in the cattle call for my FDIC money.
Dirk: WM is safe this week. New CEO, more OTS limits. Too big to fail. They'll string WM along until the other banks cut them off.
Race to get to front of queue for FDIC funding; afterall, might be a little untimely in getting add'l funding from Congress! Me first, no me...
"It's kind of an eventful period, oh host with the most. =)"
You are witnessing the implosion of an empire, history in the making.
My money is on Downey on Friday. Though Lehman could throw a pizza party on Sunday. Why would anyone take on that counterparty risk?
I wouldn't be surprised to hear something nasty out of National City soon. They've been quiet. A little too quiet.
Unless you have >$50K+ in WaMu, no worries.
WM is safe this week. New CEO, more OTS limits. Too big to fail. They'll string WM along until the other banks cut them off.
WM and LEH are now zombies. I don't think either will "fail" but they will have any thing of value sold off until they are only a shadow. if you're a shareholder, you lost.
The funny thing is you don't want to stop doing business with anyone, because you know, karma's a bitch.
My money is on some random little bank most of us have never heard of (maybe one with a lot of Frannie preferred holdings) getting shut down Friday. The FDIC is desperate to avoid shutting down a big bank (which, of course, means that the losses will be that much worse when they finally do).
Can anyone explain why the REITs like SPG and GGP are holding up so well? Those CRE charts are fugly. And the news just keeps getting worse. Yet SPG is close to 6 month highs. What are the potential catalysts for a true price discovery? Doesn't gravity have to kick in at some point?
Another thing on WM: it is both a thrift and a bank (parent is a thrift, but deposits go to the bank - I think), so the regulatory mess of the gov. doing anything is a factor.
Fuld: But I still have a pretty window that turns my offal into gold. That's gotta be worth sumfin'.
I don't see how your money is not safe if you have less than the FDIC limit at WaMu
Looking at how they dealt with IndyMac you can use your account just the same as before the FDIC took it over. It's only a problem if you have more than 100,000 grand.
It's too late for me to change my direct deposits before they hit this week, and I am sure I am just one of many many many in the same boat.
So why should I worry if I have a basic checking account at WaMu?
Does anyone else wonder why in the midst of the biggest fin. crisis in decades, GLD and SLV are both cliff diving. Doesn't make any sense that 'safe refuges' are being driven down. Manipulation?
Zombie banks... welcome to Japan. Although the thing that has always bothered me about the Japan comparisons is that they had a strong US/world economy to support their economy while their banks slowly recovered. If we only could be so lucky.
If I wanted to corral my little lemmings into a fiat (all the better to fleece them with), I would program trade my stockpile of gold and paper-trade gold to sell hard when markets were tanking and volatility to downside brisk. Hopefully break that move to gold in panics and change entire psychology. Afterall Mr. gold is my nemesis and I can't devalue him without confiscation. This is better than confiscation.
Five-year credit default swaps on Washington Mutual traded at 40 percent upfront, plus 500 basis points annually....
ROTFLMAO!!!!
.........
JimPortlandOR writes:
Does anyone else wonder why in the midst of the biggest fin. crisis in decades, GLD and SLV are both cliff diving. Doesn't make any sense that 'safe refuges' are being driven down. Manipulation?
I believe that would be one point for team deflation.
Monetary policy at zero bound.
Can I haz ink?
Is it Friday already? As tranches of lucifer notes, this is like Japan, a ton of Zombie banks.
The fact that smart money (Buffet) is getting out of the insurance game definitely means something.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
ps
Never too many CR posts... and I just woke up! I'll have a busy half hour.
The fact that gold and silver is crashing makes a lot of sense. Dollar started strengthening (many reasons, see Mish's logic), hedge funds got caught overleveraged on a long commodities/short financials play. Hedge funds blow up and liquidate. Gold and silver drop. Many of the investors in PMs panic as its supposed to be "safe", and bail en mass.
I'm not sure if we're approaching the end of the unwinding, but I expect the reversal to eventually be spectacular!
Tranches... don't forget cheap energy and the ability - even encouragement - to devalue their currency at will, plus the fact that their issue was largely commercial real estate, which didn't have the same impact on consumers.
Japan would be the best outcome I can think of for this scenario.
Two thoughts on GLD and SLV:
(1) We're finally getting to the deflationary part of the credit crisis, with all asset classes dropping in price.
(2) They were way overpriced when the decline began. I reckon they're just finding their way back to a more rational price level.
The real lesson of BSC...
So why should I worry if I have a basic checking account at WaMu?
You don't at this point, it is what the result of this fiasco unless there is a change in goverment intervention and a chnge at the FED is going to be in a couple of years as the currency becomes worthless.
The only reserves any these banks have to hold are for checking accounts. That is why the whole US banking systen only has about 270 bil in actual currency.
Anonymous writes:
Quadruple witching today. WWW. Maximum volatility. Looking to take advantage of any rally to short more.
I got excess cash...and I agree.
RE: glod. When you get a margin call, you can't sell what you want. You sell what you can.
Who would pay that?
I underestimated how slowly this would all unravel. I knew WM was a disaster, had a boatload of 42.50 September puts on him way back in February, 2007 when he was trading at 46.
They kept it in the air by moving the credit card reserves.
They were kept in the air by benign Fed language.
By that time, the Greeks were sucking all the premium out of those puts.
I made some money, but by September, the party was really just getting started.
Here we are a year later where I thought we'd be at this time last year.
I know this has been mentioned before, but is there any reason at all to pull my money out of WaMu if all have is a normal sub 100k checking account? I can't think of a good reason.
I can't believe my bank is about to go down. I can't tell you how weird this is. And I actually try and pay attention to all this. If they really do fail, there are millions of other people who are going to be shocked as hell. There will be a significant psychological aspect to this, lemme tell ya.
Nicholas Weaver writes:
Unless you have >$50K+ in WaMu, no worries.
WaMu is in horrible shape but those with >$100k should be worried. Yes, you lose your interest on deposits and/or CDs but you will get your principal back. Please correct me if I'm wrong...or drunk.
I don't know about gold, but silver was not overpriced. There's strong and growing industrial demand, on top of investor demand, and supplies are not expanding.
In addition to the leveraged hedge fund unwinds, I think there was significant unwinding in emerging markets to cover falling equities. China and India hold huge stocks of gold in individual hands, more than anybody knows, and it tends to come out of the woodwork in times of duress and low liquidity.
I believe that would be one point for team deflation.
oh no! when something behaves not as you expect, you make a post about a conspiracy here. i mean, do you expect people to actually take a look at what happens in a deflationary environment as all asset classes decline in value? That would make too much sense. It also doesn't help that a lot of positions are being liquidated.
And anyone that is thinking gld is in for some stunning reversal...well, I have some old dot com stocks you may be interested in....
Gavshire Hathaway writes:
Doesn't gravity have to kick in at some point?
Does F = MA or is it E = MC3 ? Only the PPT knows for sure.
Surprised the crap outta me in the 80's
Margin calls liquidate what can sold to pay of what cannot be sold. Yes, you can lose money on good assets....now is not the time to be wandering around looking up at knives to catch.
ipodius,
There is no longer a question in my mind as to whether you are posting your honest thoughts. I apologize if I insulted you. I still disagree, but nuf said.
ipodius:
Conspiracy?
What? Here?
Really now...
I got excess cash...and I agree.
Popeye | 09.10.08 - 12:20 pm | #
Excess cash is my favorite kind.
Hummm, my most recent info suggests the huge army of shorts are now gathering at MER and GS
now is not the time to be wandering around looking up at knives to catch.
Now is also not the time to be thinking about deflation. If you weren't prepared for it already, you're too late. Let's see...RE, metals, commodities, oil..all headed down, and down further. And no love on the stock market. What's an investor to do??
Tim, those with less than the FDIC insured limit have nothing to worry about. If the worst does happen (not saying it will), the money will be available as usual. Either someone will buy the bank and run it - or the FDIC will run it.
I wouldn't worry. The money will be there. The branch will be there. The ATMs will work. No worries for depositors under the limit.
Best Wishes.
You have excess cash, I have abcess cash. Mine is bleeding with pus.
Lionel writes:
Excess cash is my favorite kind.
Lionel, if you are betting this market up, well.... good luck cowboy.
CR,
Any thoughts on how a WM failure would affect money market funds?
ted spread rising
Jim,
on gold,you realize if you want to buy size , thru futures, and want totake delivery, you recieve a paper certificate of bullion held at a depository!
fail,,,,no,,,change hands,,maybe
popeye i love people who disagree...that how i learn. back in the day (when i was working in dotcomville) we used to call it "sucking your own exhaust", which is what everyone seems to do on here even when evidence is contrary and what everyone is yelling about never happens.
Will this effect shareholder dividends and option grants for insiders?
Uh oh, ipodius is about to get on his ipodium again...
fail,,,,no,,,change hands,,maybe
i'd change the maybe to a definitely. especially in the case of LEH.
o doggy. potus stiritupus. wow, that sounds like a looney tunes thing
actually i feel like a voice crying in the wilderness sometimes...just trying to inject pragmatism.
It seems we already have quite a few samples of how the gov handles these
banks that tumble into their supervisio
"which is what everyone seems to do on here even when evidence is contrary and what everyone is yelling about never happens."
There is a lot here that has been called and that is exactly what happened with the goverment basicly taking over Phoney and Fraudy as just the latest example. Stick around maybe you'll learn something.
if we all close our eyes for just a minute and concentrate hard, I know we can make oil close below 100 today. let's try it!
pragmatism is an easily transportable asset immune to (in)deflating, easily liquified, beyond the reach of forex exchange controls and most sudden shocks. View history. Modern society doesn't change it.
workd better if you click your heels together three times...
When I bite-test the coin of the realm, I'm getting a very long-term sinking feeling despite an instant's euphoria.
ipodius writes:
if we all close our eyes for just a minute and concentrate hard, I know we can make oil close below 100 today. let's try it!
I conceded that you were honest, prescient is pushing it.
iPodius,
You misconstrue the comments here. If it were just about the facts on their face you'd have a point that CR looks like an echo chamber but the participants here are perceptive enough to see the implications and draw conclusions no obvious in the bare facts. Recall Sebastian who slavishly held onto the "fact" that there was no NEBR declared recession. Absolute and incontrovertible fact. Didn't stop many here including our genial host from correctly calling the true economic conditions.
No one is claiming the rampant deflation in certain asset classes is universal nor uniform. Don't put words in people's mouths.
WaMu has 128 bio of option arm, subprime and home equity loans on their balance sheet, and as of June 30th, a capital adequacy cushion of $1.2 bio. Without another substantial capital injection, there's simply no way they meet minimum capital requirements at quarter-end. Washington Resolution Trust sounds like a good name for a thrift anyway. At this rate, the federal deficit is going to explode to around $1 Trillion next year. No matter who gets elected, it's not hard to imagine what's not going to be in your wallet.
interesting,,if you want to change your truck over to natgas,,you will be on a waiting list,,,,is that right!
I guess a change really is in the works..
ew thread
I conceded that you were honest, prescient is pushing it.
i just have to be right more than i'm wrong...right?
"At this rate, the federal deficit is going to explode to around $1 Trillion next year."
We are in the deflation of this cycle and cash is king however the default on the US government debt is going to lead to a currency collapse within the next few years. Use this time wisely.
"change your truck over to natgas"
that $2 won't last long and you'll be in the exact same position we are in now, in a few short years.
Can you buy some of those stock thingys with no money down?
OT but related FYI: Google apparently took a licking from market reaction to changes for the government-sponsored -- now government-controlled -- mortgage giants. While the broader stock markets rallied world-wide, Google shares fell by more than 5% to close regular trading at $419.95 apiece, a nearly half-year low. And the San Jose Mercury News blames institutional investors who sold off Google stock to cover losses wrought by investments in shares of Fannie and Freddie.
Uh... I guess that rumor of anti-trust procedures against google/yahoo had nothing to do with it. Personally I blame it all on investors who are cycling money into the pig, pitbull and lipstick sectors. Or... fear of mini-blackholes.
he US government debt is going to lead to a currency collapse within the next few years
repeat after me: the US will never EVER default on its debt. Say it again. Good. Now understand why.
Ike will not let that happen Ipodius..
But Tina that she could make it happen..
Rolling down the river...
YouTube - Tina Turner - Proud Mary
did I hear?the Nat Gas Bubble II has started?
I'm having trouble wrapping my brain around this one.
How good are TIPS or the TIP ETF in straddling the question of whether we're headed for massive deflation or massive inflation?
In an inflationary environment, I know the gov't plays tricks with the CPI, but wouldn't TIPs still perform better than CDs and other cash accounts?
What is the downside to owning them in a deflationary environment? Any difference between actually owning TIPS or owning the TIP ETF?
Thanks,
qt
Ipodius -
Increased currency debasement is a form of default.
If you think the long-term purchasing power of the USD is going to increase, well, good luck with that.
USD index has completed 50% retracement of it's decline from 87 to 71 and looks to be completing it's double top today.
I'm buying real silver today. It's outperformed nearly everything but energy since 2001 and I will load up for the next wave up.
This severe correction was expected and the fundamentals are now better than ever.
The fundamentals of paper promises are worsening by the day.
Ipodius -
Increased currency debasement is a form of default.
If you think the long-term purchasing power of the USD is going to increase, well, good luck with that.
USD index has completed 50% retracement of it's decline from 87 to 71 and looks to be completing it's double top today.
I'm buying real silver today. It's outperformed nearly everything but energy since 2001 and I will load up for the next wave up.
This severe correction was expected and the fundamentals are now better than ever.
The fundamentals of paper promises are worsening by the day.
$TYX bottomed yesterday and is bouncing this A.M., bonds usually fortel something aweful,,or is it just
bottom players...
ANONYMOUS: "Use this time wisely." You seem like one of the sharper pencils in this box....What is your game plan? Right now I'm hangin with MS April '09 puts but getting killed on the Swiss Franc trade.....Darryl
CashOnlyHousing writes:
Ipodius -
Increased currency debasement is a form of default.
The Weimar Solution. CashOnlyHousing, collect your Nobel in Economics. Be sure to ask for the prize money in gold.
Where's Don Maclean when you need him?
Bye, bye, housing bubble, bye bye,
Drove my Hummer all summer,
Now the tank is all dry,
And the good old bankers sipping lemon and Skye,
Singing, this is the day the bubble cried,
This is the day that WAMU died...
As long as there's fiat money, ink and a printing press, the US will never default on its debt. However, devaluing that debt via inflation and currency depreciation versus default becomes a distinction without a difference to foreign debt holders at some point.
"repeat after me: the US will never EVER default on its debt. Say it again. Good. Now understand why."
You pays your money takes takes your chances. Don't cry for me Argentina.
Is there even a slim chance for Wamu to survive?
They are so heavy into residential mortgages in Cal.
Vivendi Pulls Seven-Year Bond Sale on Lack of Demand (Update2)
By Rudy Ruitenberg and Esteban Duarte
Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Vivendi SA, the owner of French pay- television operator Canal Plus, said it canceled its proposed sale of as much as 600 million euros ($846 million) of seven-year bonds because of a lack of investor demand.
We tried to test the market and we wanted a maturity of seven years to improve the structure of our debt,'' Paris-based Vivendi spokeswoman Solange Maulini said in an interview today.The market considers the maturity of seven years too long and sought five years. There was no market for a seven-year.''
[snip]
Turbo I sort of agree with you but I think about it like this: Ipodius is old enough to remember the stories about how Japan was going to rule the world. And the oil producers. And [fill in flavor of the decade here]. China's and India's story ends the same way as Japan's but for a different reason.
What would take the dollar's place? A basket? Of what? Who else has the sheer economic mass and output that the US does? The EU? Pay attention to the next year and what is happening there. It is very unclear to me if the Euro will be the same one year from now. If any country makes noise about pulling out, that's the end of anyone's thought of using the Euro for anything.
So the F&F bailout took us back to late May in terms of spreads...and for the two year note today the spread ticked up 2 bps...
Fannie Mae Plans Largest Sale of Debt, After Takeover (Update1)
By Jody Shenn
Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Fannie Mae set plans for its largest individual sale of senior debt, offering $7 billion of two-year benchmark notes after the U.S. government takeover of the company led to a record drop in yields relative to benchmarks.
The debt will be priced today, the Washington-based company said in a statement sent by e-mail. The notes mature Oct. 12, 2010, Fannie said yesterday in an announcement that didn't say how much debt would be offered, a break from its traditional practice. Earlier today, the company sold $2 billion of short- term debt at lower yields versus benchmarks in a weekly auction.
The U.S. Treasury and the Federal Housing Finance Agency put Fannie and Freddie Mac into conservatorship on Sept. 7 and agreed to inject funding as needed, citing concern that the government- chartered mortgage-finance companies may not have sufficient capital. A day later, the extra yield investors demand to own the companies' debt over Treasuries plunged the most on record.
Spreads over Treasuries on Fannie's two-year debt fell to 54 basis points on Sept. 8, the lowest since May 27, from 89, the steepest drop in history. They rose to 56 basis points today.
[snip]
ipodius: "? Who else has the sheer economic mass and output that the US does? The EU?"
I mostly agree with what you are saying.The economic mass? EU of course. If we Euros could kick out the Yanks from our internal politics and convert their Trojan horse the UK. The EU would be a much bigger player than the US.
We would develop a close relationship with the Russians and try to be very accommodating to the Arabs.
Turbo,
Very true.
And I think some day soon, sooner rather than later, they (BRICs) will prefer to buy the debt of each other or reinvest $ in themselves once they're sufficiently economically independent. Then we are really screwed.
Ipodius - I actually agree with you, to a point. I'm not uber-bearish on the US economy, I don't think China will rule the world, or that the Euro will ever be the world's reserve currency. I do think the Federal government will be forced to borrow a lot more money to mop up the financial system, which will cause modest (20%)? further depreciation of the US dollar and significant (5%)?monetary inflation. If you're a foreign bond holder who bought a 10 year agency in 2002 with DXY at 110 and a coupon of 4%, when you go to cash that bond in in 2112 after zero real income for 10 years, and you effectively receive 55 cents on the dollar with DXY now trading at 60, it's going to kind of feel like your getting a settlement from a defaulted borrower all the same.
ipodius - you have reached your 10 comment limit on this thread. Step away from the ipodium. Thank you.
What happened in the case of a brokered CD we had at a bank that failed recently is that we got a notice saying if we did nothing the CD was going to be automatically transferred to another bank out in Nebraska somewhere which would cover it for the same period but at a lesser interest rate. But if didn't want this Nebraska bank to take it over we could direct the CD value to be returned to our brokerage account (which is what we did).
Local WAMU branch has a hand drawn (black marker) sign sitting on the sidewalk advertising 5% CDs. Desperate?
"I wouldn't worry. The money will be there. The branch will be there. The ATMs will work. No worries for depositors under the limit.
Best Wishes.
Calculated Risk"
Shelia is in the house!!
The WAMU is about to fail mantra has been running for a lonnnnng time on here now. Wake me when it actually happens. I'm not being cynical but it would appear that the FDIC has zero interest in taking WAMU over and who could blame them?
Wamu bonds that mature in Jan of 09 are priced to yield anywhere from 57-69%.
A few quants/technical traders seem to be buying Wamu up right now. Good luck with that.
CR, thanks for the response. Bout what I figured, but I'm just not up on my "what happends if my bank fails" scenarios. Go figure
Jim,
on gold,you realize if you want to buy size , thru futures, and want totake delivery, you recieve a paper certificate of bullion held at a depository!
PonziMonetizaCoruptiCapatlism
If you have enough of those certificates at a given depository, you can take your list of certificates, the numbers of the associated metal bars, your independent auditors, and yourself and have a physical inventory count. I know. We did it last Spring. Silver bars are heavy.
You can also pay Brinks to move your physical metal to the location of your choice.
No Japan, but "the implosion of an empire, history in the making", as Anonymous said.
The terrifying beauty of it keeps me up all nights, even as I am in wrong time zone (Europe).
This might sum it up:
WaMu Chase Sucks!
Welcome to another "Bank Failure Friday"
Will they implode this coming Friday? or will they start pumping the buyout rumor BS.
--> Why Do Banks Fail on Fridays? | Bear Market Investments
Frankly I don't see how these Fed characters can bail out another bank. The Freddie and Fannie mess has wiped out their balance sheet.
By the way, Wamu's uninsured deposits are worth three times the amount the FDIC can cover.
Realize (given the gross inadequacy of the FDIC fund) that it will take an act of Congress to close WAMU. And those critters don't move too fast. Too busy raising money for their noncompetitive reelection races.
We are in the deflation of this cycle and cash is king however the default on the US government debt is going to lead to a currency collapse within the next few years. Use this time wisely.
Anonymous | 09.10.08 - 12:54 pm | #
and do what??? Move to Europe and convert all cash to euro's....