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BofA, Merrill in Merger Talks
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Sun, 09/14/2008 - 2:00pm (299 comments)
Wasn't it Merrill that founded the sale of their bad assets a month or so ago? Are they really lacking in baggage?
NYtimes.com says 25-30 per share...WTF?
First! I think
why oh why would BAC want to be polluted by MER? Crazy. Gluttons for punishment.
Wasn't Ken Lewis the guy who said he had all the "fun" he could stand with investment banking?
Guess he wants to be part of the "club" since the boys on wall street think of BoA as a bunch of southern country bumpkins.
25 to 30???? Talk about catching falling knife!
B of A has taken down Countrywide and now will add MER?!? How long before B of A's health is likened to Citi???
If I said that I closed my MER short on Friday, would anybody believe me?
Two corpses embracing each other in death.
Good timing Nemo. What do you forsee for Citi?
How long before Citi and B Of A/MER merge???
Oh wait, that's next weekend's news...
It is me from Europe writes:
Two corpses embracing each other in death.
God that's beautiful. I just cut myself and it feels good.
Merger or bailout? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.
Opening scene: Two dinosaurs looking at a flaming horizon under otherwise absolute black skies.
Triceratops 1: This cant be good.
Triceratops 2: Oh well, life will go on.
Triceratops 1: Would you like to cuddle up?
Trying to shore up one of the remaining IBs from the cascading damage the LEH implosion will cause is my completely uneducated peanut gallery guess, with the side effect of potentially staving off a panic in the markets tomorrow. Dump LEH, buy MER, all is well(untilthenextmeltdown)!!!!
Even to my utterly clueless mind, this looks like the industry falling back and trying to reinforce any possible defence against further cascade failures.
Cue Dandy Don Meredith:
"Turn out the lights, the party is over..."
Merger or bailout? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.
Even worse it could just be to buy time and no real deal can be done there either.
Bac has old montgomery..what do they need Mer for, that they can' t grow organically
I would. Congratulations.
Don't get greedy.
One big noose instead of two smaller ones. Big deal.
Ah... the penny drops for me.
If a merger discussion is announced the shorts will think twice tomorrow...maybe.
In the spirit of Roubini, I think these mergers will continue until there's only one zombie left standing, which will make the bailout process much easier and palatable to the public.
Two wrongs don't make a right.
@would anybody believe me?
Most excellent timing.
Hah, BoA hopes to get 'too big to fail' by merging with Merrill.
curious-er writes:
In the spirit of Roubini, I think these mergers will continue until there's only one zombie left standing, which will make the bailout process much easier and palatable to the public.
curious-er | 09.14.08 - 5:16 pm | #
Yes, one Zombie requiring 20% down and proof of income for a mortgage.
None of this last minute crap can be good IMO. These are desperate measures for desperate times for sure. Wall Street is in a world of hurt and well deserved!
696 visitors
how come the after hours dont reflect an increase in MER?
.......
YouTube - Birgit Nilsson - Liebestod
Wow! 686 visitors on a Sunday afternoon? I guess your legions are growing, CR.
Maybe the anger will spread beyond .001% of the population.
Next: Bill Gross on Fannie and Freddie - Bloomberg
That means JPM get WAAMOO
Bank of Merrill? or Merrill of America?
Congrats, Nemo!
MER's balance sheet looks terrible, and so does BAC's. If they do announce a merger, I'm shorting BAC.
Nemo - I believe Nemo, I believe
25 to 30 for Merrill. Such an obvious lie. They're just desperate to stop the shorts from piling in tomorrow.
BofA would be stupid to take MER for free, let alone for a premium to market price. I call total BS.
Gavshire Hathaway writes:
25 to 30 for Merrill
I agree its probably another pump. Howevr, if the Fed had some back door discussion about swapping out debt,,it could happe
Source : CG
who could CG be?
The new bank will be
Bullish of America
BOB BRINKER JUST TOLD DEPOSITORS TO GET THEIR MONEY OUT OF WASHINGTON MUTUAL ON HIS "MONEYTALK" PROGRAM TODAY HOLY HELLLLLLLLLLLLL
Gavshire is right. This is another wall street shell game lie.
Bye, bye, American style crooked crony capitalism.
Good riddance.
Ho-Hum
It seems an officer working in the shareholders interest would wait until the post LEH marks were taken.
Will any uninsured money market funds take a hit from this? That would cause a run!
25 to 30 for Merrill. Such an obvious lie. They're just desperate to stop the shorts from piling in tomorrow.
It's not a lie. It's Market Manipulation We Can Believe In.
706 visitors
on Sunday
I guess if Merrill is gone, that would formally announce the death of the Bull.
Bear eats bull, pukes after realizing it was poison.
rich --
Don't get greedy.
That was the spirit in which I closed the short.
I'm probably going all cash soon.
Bubba2Friday --
I have no idea about Citi. Too large to make a call. My strategy lately has been "long the XLF, short the garbage". I do not count Citi among the garbage... At least, not compared to some others.
sounds fishy to me as well. I don't doubt that BAC could try for Merrill... but for so much $$$???
seems like this is a starting point, nothing more.
but it will have its intended effect: punish the Merrill shorts and strike the fear of merger into people thinking of shorting other financial firms.
works as well if not better than a "do not short" list.
is there any doubt that tomorrow Merrill would have seen 10-50% drop in share price had this merger not been discussed?
There is a special CNBC program on Lehman tonight, 8-10 PM New York Time.
From The Big Picture
Interesting times indeed...
........
BOB BRINKER
Yeah, and he thinks the S&P is cheap right now also.
I hope someone has the decency to turn that stupid bull upside down upon its demise.
BOB BRINKER JUST TOLD DEPOSITORS TO GET THEIR MONEY OUT OF WASHINGTON MUTUAL ON HIS "MONEYTALK" PROGRAM TODAY HOLY HELLLLLLLLLLLLL
Sheila is NOT going to be pleased.
I hope Merrill jumps tomorrow. It makes another entry point for free money.
BAC buying MER. Do they really think this will work, that they can just apply a bit of spin and keep the game going. When will this smoke and mirrors BS end?
@That means JPM get WAAMOO
Like the last person left to be picked for dodgeball.
to all the dollar bulls; Japan is nervous and is talking about selling their agencies. what would you do if you held hundreds of billions of Agencies that just a week ago were selling for perhaps 70 cents on the dollar and the US Treasury just guaranteed them up to par? sell, sell, sell.
what would Bill Gross do with the 1.7B windfall he just made from the bailout? you'd better believe he'd take those profits and run.
TNX up, dollar down, glod up, oil stocks up eventually followed by oil up.
step up, get your hard assets, get your hard assets.
Well, Nemo, congrats.
I shorted 1,000 shares of Citi on Friday. It was around $18, and it has been more or less between $18 & $20 for a good chunk of the past 3 months. Though certainly not during the July lows....
Well it sure seems as if there confusing many readers on CR. They can't keep bailing everyone out. WS will have to take it's mdicineand might get an alergic reaction big time.
Once again none of this is good.
And I just refi' the White House with WaMu last year! Suckers.
currency futures:
eurusd up sharply
usdjpy down sharply
gbpusd up sharply
WSJ: "Wall Street Firms Scramble to Avert Crisis"
This kinda reminds me of a game we use to play in the frat in college.
Every so often then seniors would come running thru the house screaming
"Whos Next? Whos Next?"
They choose Joey first and start pounding on Joey's door, Joey final realizes that they are drunk and not going to leave so Joey gets up and takes the tequila shot...
The chants resume "Whos next, whos next" and Joey chooses Kyle and the mob runs off to Kyle's door and starts thumping....
So:
Whos next? Whos Next?
........
Opening scene: Two dinosaurs looking at a flaming horizon under otherwise absolute black skies.
Triceratops 1: This cant be good.
Triceratops 2: Oh well, life will go on.
Triceratops 1: Would you like to cuddle up?
Scene Two: (pan out to a backlit pair of Tyrannosaurs some distance away)
T. Rex 1: I smell fear.
T. Rex 2: Panic in the Herd?
T. Rex 1: Heard that. I taste opportunity in the air.
T. Rex 2: With a hint of ash in the aftertaste.
T. Rex 1: its times like these I love being big.
why would BAC pay a 50% premium? Also wonder what Temasek thinks? Seems like they have deeper pockets at the moment than all parties involved. Also, on a fully converted basis. Also is the valuation on a fully converted basis. Tangible book is in the 17 dollar range, why would they pay 2x TBV? mkes no sense.
"MER's balance sheet looks"
Read the '07 Annual Report $1.4T liability should adverse events occur - "we [The Mgmt] thinks taht this is unlikely."
If memory serves under Notes, pg 26
729 must be record
This BAC price is from the same morons at NY times deal blog that said LEH had a deal...Yeah, they were f'n wrong on that one BIG TIME!
I must say this is exciting!
CNBC BREAKING: AIG To Announce Asset Sale or Capital Injection (More details to come)
Lehman Inches Toward Bankruptcy After Potential Buyers Drop Out
Lehman Inches Toward Bankruptcy After Potential Buyers Drop Out - Bloomberg.com
The best case is that the Fed offers a 48-hour standstill by backing Lehman's liquidity directly to win time for other bidders to come forth or the previously interested parties to reconsider,'' said Sean Egan, president of Egan-Jones Ratings Co. in Haverford, Pennsylvania.The worst case is bankruptcy, and Lehman goes down the tube.'
So we have a solution for Merrill what's up for AIG? Wonder how long till some announcement comes up with them selling assets to raise capital.
There is a special CNBC program on Lehman tonight, 8-10 PM New York Time.
My TV listing says Armageddon is playing in that time slot...you know, where Bruce Willis flies a spaceship in to blow up a giant hemorrhoid threatening life on earth as we know it.
cd
Wow, just wow.
This does not seem a smart move to me.
Wow that was fast....
Adam writes:
So we have a solution for Merrill what's up for AIG? Wonder how long till some announcement comes up with them selling assets to raise capital.
CtD,
Wrong Armageddon check the details
........
REUTERS SEVERAL BANKING EXECS LEAVING NY FED MEETING-REUTERS WITNESS
BB - I suspect the SEC to halt LEH, and close all shorts indefinelty. This will avoid panic selling and pressure.
idoc how is the USD doing
MER was $28/share just 1 week ago.
Wonder what the Fed and OCC would think of BofA picking up MER. Not to mention the FDIC. Poor Shiela.
$25-$30/sh for Merrill seems like a horrible price, at this time, for BAC shareholders.
Of course, Countrywide was a horrible deal and Ken "Fun, Fun" Lewis went ahead with it.
BOB BRINKER JUST TOLD DEPOSITORS TO GET THEIR MONEY OUT OF WASHINGTON MUTUAL ON HIS "MONEYTALK" PROGRAM TODAY HOLY HELLLLLLLLLLLLL
Anonymous
Thank God most Americans are watching football. All we need is a Monday run on a major retail bank. It isn't even October yet!
I get it now. It's slick, really slick.
Dollar down 2 figures v Yen in early trades Alea | Dollar: Early Trades
No way BAC is paying 2x TBV. On a fully ocnverted basis 2B shares outstanding. Do have Bloomberg and Blackstone stake which I assume deals for their sale would be off. That price is just wrong. I call bullshit. LEvel III is $44B or so. Tangible equity is approx $30B. Also Citi in note says that the insurance counterpary for their CDO hedges is AIG on approx $8B (among other high quality counterparties). Citi on Fri came out with $40 target price. $15 on institutional franchise, $15 on asset management business and resideual for blackstone etc/. MER does have $100B in deposits which makes it a better fit for BAC.
The theory is that Ken Lewis is trying to prove that he is every bit the elite player he pretends to be.
You can take the hick out of the country...
Lehman Heads Toward Brink as Barclays Ends Talks
(with photos of white male banker boyz and Pandit)
- NY Times
If a deal happens, much of that $38B will go to the 16+B of preferred and possibly even some debtholders in my opinion. Leaving much less than 25-30 for the common.
We'll see, but I doubt that deal happens for any premium to the shareholders.
BofA to be renamed Banco USSA
Whatever happened to free markets? I always hear WS doesnt like uncertainty. This chaos is not going help.
About the USDXJPY, that would be more than 10% drop from the price friday...
wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!
"My TV listing says Armageddon is playing in that time slot..."
A movie so bad, I was pulling for the giant rocks.
Bank of Merrill? or Merrill of America?
How about Bank of Lynch?
What a bunch of crap.... Bac buying Mer 10 dollars over Friday's close.... Pathetic and obvious......
If the dollar tanks 10% I dread to think what will happen in equities.
This weekend's meetings in New York are more about who the survivors will be, not Lehman Brothers.
Lehman Brothers was just a cover for the meetings.
White House refuses comment on Lehman
WASHINGTON, Sept 14 (Reuters) - The White House declined on Sunday to comment on the latest developments involving Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc, but said U.S. President George W. Bush in general keeps in close touch with key officials on pressing financial matters. "The president and his staff stay in close and frequent contact with Treasury Secretary (Henry) Paulson and other senior economic officials on all pressing financial market issues," said White House spokesman Tony Fratto. He declined further comment as talks to sell Lehman Brothers appeared to be faltering.
After Bush's comment that Wall Street got drunk wonder what dinger we might get if the market crashes in the morning
How about Bank of Lynch?
thoth
That has my vote.
Fox news just reported LEH would email its employees to let them know by midnight!
WSJ reporters and that twerp who writes deal book need to learn the common fu$king sense rule.
How about "Merryl Bank of Robbers".
Steal from the poor, give to the rich.
That is wrong. That Yen quote is wrong!!!!!
This weekend's meetings in New York are more about who the survivors will be, not Lehman Brothers.
Lehman Brothers was just a cover for the meetings.
I think you're onto something, mp. It does seem as if the trash is finally being taken to the landfill.
FT article on Fuld's failures at Lehman:
A tragedy of hubris and nemesis
FT.com / In depth - A tragedy of hubris and nemesis
More like Bank of David Lynch.
Wait, wouldn't this merger violate the Glass-Steagall Act?
HAHAHAHAHA kidding.
Lehman Brothers was just a cover for the meetings.
mp
I agree. I think by mid-afternoon Saturday it came down to slicing up the goodies and doling out survivership.
This is a firebreak for the "Merrill is next" shorts. They will get creamed tomorrow, and they will think twice before shorting the next stock down to zero. I see how it makes sense for the broader financial system, but not for BofA obviously. Why not just pick up the Lehman bankers for nothing?
Don't tell me -- there are synergies between the BofA branches and the Merrill brokers? Sure. That's why the Citibank/Traveller's merger worked so well, right? Come on, that's so 90's!
I know lots of tin-foil hat wearers will say there's a quid pro quo here on the part of the government. Sorry. Seems to me like pure stupidity on BofA's part.
Obviously it's Lynch America
UPDATE 1-Fifteen U.S. oil refineries shut due to Ike-DOE
Page not found - - CNBC.com
The refineries closed by Ike represent just under a quarter of U.S. fuel production capacity. The department said Sunday was the first opportunity for companies to assess the damage to the energy infrastructure and the timing of reopening refineries will depend on the extent of the damage.
BofA to be renamed Bańo
Is it just me, or did a lot of folks not named NEMO short MER on Friday?
Bush has always kept in touch with his bankers to keep is checking account in balance. Fuck the nation's checking account.
Oh, glod, 110 posts already to read.
Currently Smoking Cannabis --
Obviously it's Lynch America
ding ding ding!
We have a winner!
ffdic - what does the nations checking account mean?
You guys are gullible. Don't believe everything you read.
If a deal doesnt make sense it wont happen.
David Pearson, I enjoy reading your post but I disagree with you on this one. If BAC does this deal then the bears will try to short it to zero rather than ML - and that would be a very bad thing since they have over 10% of the US's deposit base.
The world will go on without ML and LEH. BAC and others can pick up the pieces in liquidation.
Refineries shut, US out of Venezuela and fuel supply nationalized, Iraq calls off talks with Western oil Cos. I don't know much about oil, but this looks like a bad combo.
"BofA to be renamed Bańo"
No, BAMER is better.
Oh, glod, 110 posts already to read.
lawyerliz | 09.14.08 - 5:51 pm | #
liz,
Read them carefully and depose everybody is my free advice...and find bacon dreamz. This is way too much pork without his sage advice.
why would BAC pay a 50% premium?
Is it really that much of a premium ? MER traded above 25 as recently as a week back. Sounds more like BAC decided that they could get it at a price that smelled like a premium, but might be more realistic than some think.
From wsj.com:
"Merrill was believed to be asking for a price that would value the firm at well above $40 billion."
So MER is asking $40B. It doesn't mean BAC will give that much.
mp,
Not bad, not bad. Question is then what's the best way to determine who is not chosen to survive?
Iraq calls off talks with Western oil Cos
So we spend $500B+ to free them from Saddam and this is their thanks?
Thanks, Ralph.
My confidential sources report Mrs. Bair is pulling her greasy hair out.
Orson Wells (did you mean "Welles"?) --
The world will go on without ML and LEH.
Lehman... maybe.
But Merrill is considerably larger than Bear Stearns by any metric. If BSC was "too big to fail", then MER is "way too big to fail". If they need a bail-out, the only question is what form it will take, not whether it will happen.
"If BAC does this deal then the bears will try to short it to zero rather than ML"
The smoke and mirrors are being re-arranged hastily.
Just for posterity:
At this juncture . . . the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime markets seems likely to be contained, Bernanke said in prepared testimony to Congress Joint Economic Committee.
Bank of Merrill? or Merrill of America?
How about Bank of Lynch?
No, no, no. Lynch America.
"Not bad, not bad. Question is then what's the best way to determine who is not chosen to survive?"
Look at the guest list.
Theyre just trying to confuse the hell out of everyone. Its working. Going to be a wild ride.
Rumors, rumors, and more rumors!
Hey...write your own material, Outsider.
BofA new name, Barrio?
Who ever said 'firebreak' gets a biscuit.
The pupils in Conjure's eyes are beginning to turn red. He's saying that all of this has been arranged so hastily they're going to screw it up.
We're talking Swissies here.
Over 700 visitors is historic!! Commom sense says go short but CR visitors meter tells us to go LONG!
BAC has $100B in deposits.
Also MER on a fully converted basis for all the convert pref out has approx 2 billion shares out? that math doesn;t equal 35-40 a share. More like where the stock trades.
S&P futures just started selling off hard. They were flat half an hour ago, now down 1.5%.
Just FYI.
dresdner...bear..now lehman yuppies looking for a job... more reason for those who still have a job (with the 'survivors') not to get paid this year...
not that i was..err..hoping to...(sniff)
Jeez, will I have to do a "How large is BofA" post?
No Nemo. I'm Beenie Wells' pop. OSU would have won that game if my son played. Well, maybe not....
I'm smart enough to not believe 90% of what is reported in the financial press having seen the errors first hand on several occasions.
You'll see, BAC aint buying MER - and if they do the common shareholders wont get $25-$30 per share. Maybe the preferred and sub debt will get that but I see little left over for the common.
The argument that BAC would pay up for MER to flush out the shorts so it wont happen again is absurd. I'm sure the BAC shareholders would love to see that behavior. It just puts a massive target on BAC's back - trust me, that's who we will go after next.
The world goes on fine without MER and LEH. Their operations will be picked up in liquidation. Its happened before and it will happen again.
What if the Fed basically said no mas (and LEH and MER were chosen as the odd men out) and essentially the BAC story is to obfuscate a dual filing BAC and MER tonight?
CR,
Time to wake Tanta up and get her on a new story by Gretchen Morgenson about AIG!! There is virtually no time to waste !
Rush Is On to Prevent Big Insurer From Failing
Big Insurer Seeks Cash As Portfolio Plummets - NY Times
Additional write-downs may also be required in A.I.G.s collateralized debt obligations, which the company does mark to market because they are held in a short-term account known as available for sale. The company valued $42 billion in high-grade holdings at 75 cents on the dollar, while it marked another $16 billion in lower-rated obligations at 70 cents.
A spokesman for A.I.G., Nicholas J. Ashooh, said it was inappropriate to compare the markdowns of Lehman Brothers securities with those at A.I.G.
We dont think thats valid, to look at somebody elses portfolio markdowns and then infer what A.I.G.s might be, because theres so many variables, Mr. Ashooh said, what kind of risk is in the portfolio, what kind of collateral there is, and how the marks were calculated. We think we use a very thorough and conservative approach that includes third-party input and input from the rating services.
BAC has $805 billion in deposits (6/30/08)
Am I wrong to believe that maybe the gubmint is saying "No bailout this week" because it realizes the worst-case scenario for F&F losses are the likely scenario?
Or perhaps some foreigners that fund our gubmint debt have said, "No Mas!", seeing the likelihood of an eventual default growing by the bailout?
agree with orson fully. BAC is a false flag
The visitor count on CR broke 800 in the days after the BS hedge funds collapsed.
They can't possibly think US borrowing capacity is infinte?
If you're BofA, why does Merrill look yummy but Lehman is a 'no thanks?' Don't they both look as appetizing as a soup sandwich?
I have heard that JP Morgan spent $106/Share all in for Bear Stearns after all the nasty little "surprises" were accounted for. Relatively speaking BofA might be getting a deal.
"more like BAC decided that they could get it at a price that smelled like a premium, but might be more realistic than some think"
They could wait until next Sunday and get it for nothing.
"They can't possibly think US borrowing capacity is infinte?"
Oh, sure they can.
This will cause a run pretty quick. He has a huge national audience.
If BoA buys MER at $38B as discussed, BAC is a short to zero IMO.
Whoa big boy, say that again louder:
"We think we use a very thorough and conservative approach that includes third-party input and input from the rating services."
S&P futures down 3%.
(I know, I know, the market is off-topic by definition. But tonight is special, I think.)
FUTURES OPEN DOWN BIG
-225 on dow
Country Lynch of America.
Try -296 on DOW, -39 S&P, -44 NAZ.
Has the fed made any statements affirming the window for all the banks?
Dude....we might see jumpers.
mp,
Tell Conjure to turn on a football game and chill. I picture him as an "old school" Raider fan, not like these johnny-come-lately pansies.
and here I am only a quarter position in SDS.
Oh Well.
1% FFR, here we come.
Conjure says, "If BofA buys Merrill without explicit federal guarantees, BofA is going on my death watch list."
The last Sept Dow futures trade I saw (about 20 seconds ago) was 11,148. Down about 300 points
BAC - MER merger talks?
... more rumors running like chicken without a head
Bloomberg ASIA live now.
There's something else to be aware of. The insurance industry isn't like the banking industry. They don't all get in a room together and try to work things out.
What they do is more like a pack of jackals attacking a wounded buffalo.
They don't do this overtly at headquarters-level, of course. But there's several hundred thousand semi-starving insurance agents out there trying to make their next sale.
So, tomorrow, any agency manager worth his jackal soul will be telling his troops to get out there, find AIG contracts, and strip them, flip them. AIG's permanent life insurance contracts (whole life and universal) and fixed annuities would be most vulnerable.
Of course, it helps when the buffalo is this big. Lots of meat for the jackals to chew on.
Brett Favre could figure this mess out.
re: bac and mer - lest we forget, bac is paying in stock that was valued at 18 bucks not too long ago.
2 way street, kids.
They need some kind of positive announcement tonight. Either the SEC will announce something about short sales, or the Fed will announce something, or "Lynch America"...
I would be very surprised if all we got was a Lehman bankruptcy (or lack of same).
anybody who is gonna be stupid enough to try and short BAC is getting whatbthey asked for.
Only way BAC or JPM goes down is if sealy posturpedic becomes the preferred saving vehicle. Anybody who says otherwise is talking their book.
Og for pity sake, future value based on future earnings is going to have the crap beat out of "it" and dividends will be cut and stocks will come down along with Treasury yields and the dollar, and oil, and unemployment will go up, inflation will rocket and Bush and his friends will walk away with a mess far more complex than The Great Depression, which needs a new verb modification, like, The Gargantuan Depression Linked To SubPrime Fraud & Bush's Ownership Society Bullshit which was also linked to a tsunami of synthetic derivative bullshit and collusion and corruption and shit like that...
We did have close to, or slightly over 1,000 users once. I think it was during the second Countrywide panic.
"Over 700 visitors is historic!!"
I agree with Nemo.
I think the 2 pieces of news we'll probably get tonight are that Lehman is liquidating and that Paulson just saved a lot of money on his car insurance....
If people have live quotes on the indexes, could you please post them?
Or Shamwows for everybody.
"Tell Conjure to turn on a football game and chill."
Conjure is now stone cold, so cold it's scary.
Conjure says, "The next leg down has begun."
So how is he going to wack this mole?
Re: They need some kind of positive announcement tonight
Could we finally set the revival of the community bank in the ashes of this mess?
@and here I am only a quarter position in SDS.
Don't sweat it, Troy. Closed ALL my shorts Friday. Ugh.
Japan, China, S Korea markets closed for a holiday. I bet none of them are enjoying their day "off".
"Bush and his friends will walk away with a mess far more complex than The Great Depression"
Just about time for the Alt-As to reset. Average American in deep. OY.
tj & the bear writes:
Try -296 on DOW, -39 S&P, -44 NAZ
PPT will be going crazy on Monday
If Conjure is prognosticating again them I'm scared... very scared...
.........
Futures for S&P -39, Naz -49, Dow -315.
Pretty stable after initial drop.
Futures
DJ -310, S&P 500 -38 at 18.08
Re: Dude....we might see jumpers.
Very cool! This should be mandatory! What about jumpers with lipstick?
Thanks tj!
MER after hours is actually down half a point... This story is comedy....
.....
If BoA are doing a deal with Merrill it is clear the Lehman are going into BK.
Merril were next.
That's were Hank is going to use the last shot of his bazooka.
Roubinni(?) is right. This is the meltdown of the secondary banking system.
Do BoA have ehough capital to bail out Merrill?
Have the Fed & Treasury both run out of money.
Japan & China may be closed tomorrow. But they will wake up on Tuesday.
Gotta be a rate cut coming. That'd throw a bone to the entire street. I'd say the only reason they haven't announced one yet is that it's the carrot their dangling in front of all the meeting participants.
Not having the far east open tomorrow is a bad thing. The only way they can hedge is through Europe and here.
Expect monster volume.
NASD-47,S&P-39,DOW-313 from CNBC-Worldwide
-K
ppt still in bed or busy squaring positions in special session...
Yah,
2 pt rate cut and tax rebate check already in the mail. We will follow Japan and cut to zero and go through 13 years of denial as these crooks are given opportunities to flee our jurisdiction.
Now these guys are jumpers:
YouTube - Extreme Base Jumping in Wingsuits
YouTube - Flying Dude
......
Coming to your way 100bps FFR cut next week to kill the shorts.
I'll take bankruptcy giving 3 points to Lehman.
I'll take no MER deal giving 25-30 to a deal with BAC.
I'll give Wamu 10 business day until it goes into receivership.
Yah, yah,
Whay bones can be tossed out there? maybe unlimited access to Discount Windows, no money down, no payments and no interest and two-for-one swaps on CDOs and CDS??
Sarah Smokes Dope has this figured out. Good call!
Rate cut is probably coming...bet 50bps tomorrow morning right before the market opens. Man is the volume going to be nutz tomorrow morning.
Coming to your way 100bps FFR cut next week to kill the shorts.
S N
thats ok, i'm hedged with energy and glod. bring it on Ben.
Look out for the liquidity trap!
i meant "bring it on Ben, you dumbshit".
Silly question but if the futures hit the circuit breaker before the markets opens, do they open the markets?
I never thought about that before.
No mas.
Anonymous writes:
Could we finally set the revival of the community bank in the ashes of this mess?
Anonymous | Homepage | 09.14.08 - 6:14 pm | #
My wife and I took all our money out of these banks over 6 months ago. We use Schwab. They pay almost 3% in checking and reimburse all ATM fees at any bank. Why use any of the other banks?
NYT says bankruptcy filing coming:
the article
WaMu out there on a thin tree limb and it's windy. No fire trucks left.
ross,
no link or reference, but i'm pretty confident the answer to that one is 'no
Roberto Duran....haha....fucking classic.
This video is a great metaphor for the current crisis...
YouTube - Tunnel of Death (Lefortovo Tunnel, Russia)
.....
Didnt B of A come up with a winning formula with the Countrywide purchase?
Buy a failing company, keep the assets and spin off the liabilities into a new company that goes bk?
Currently Smoking -
Gracias.
Why is everyone assuming the BofA deal with Merrill is any good? BofA CEO Ken Lewis is completely incompetent. In a deflationary credit cycle he OVERPAID for a business dependent on the expansion of credit. He has put his shareholders and company in a position to be vulnerable when there was NO need to take a risk. This deal is another bad move by Lewis. Lewis is single handedly putting threatening the future of Bofa. This is insane.
ymex gold up $14
If theres a bustle in your hedgerow
Dont be alarmed now,
Its just a spring clean for the may queen.
Yes, there are two paths you can go by
But in the long run
Theres still time to change the road youre on.
And it makes me wonder.
Your head is humming and it wont go
In case you dont know,
The pipers calling you to join him,
Dear lady, can you hear the wind blow,
And did you know
Your stairway lies on the whispering wind.
Ross,
Keep talking. It is all worth listening too.
bac would still be a regional bank worth a couple billion tops if they hadn't launched their expansionary strategy 20 years ago.
you can't ask a shark to stop swimming.
Why is everyone assuming the BofA deal with Merrill is any good?
i'm not.
RaT,
I'm waiting for the MER bounce on the BAC deal and then I'll short the sh!t out of it.
If the futures hit the fan, they break out the PPPPHFT - (Pre/Post Plunge Protection Hat-trick Financial Team) to save the day.
LEH Filing
the article
Ha just a little over 2 yrs ( when article was written ) and all the financial malfeasance from Wall St, The Fed, The Treasury and the Bush admin ( and what we get more of with McSame ) and this is closer to being true....
The case for a global currency
The case for a global currency - Editorials & Commentary - International Herald Tribune - The New York Times
FRIDAY, AUGUST 4, 2006
There is a rising tide of opposition around the world to America's unilateral assertion of its national interests. But few realize that for the United States to become a more responsible country, the world economy needs to move from the current U.S. dollar standard to a global currency.
U.S. dominance rests not only on military superiority and on the size and productivity of its economy, but also on the fact that most international transactions are denominated in U.S. dollars and more than 60 percent of world foreign exchange reserves are held in U.S.-denominated assets, like U.S. Treasury bills.
The problem for the rest of the world is that the U.S. dollar standard encourages the United States to be careless in its monetary and fiscal policies.
STAY TUNED because likely coming and sooner than most thought just 2 yrs ago !
So the big financial rat houses are banding together to better compete.
ymex gold up $16.10
From the NYT article:
Lehmans broker-deal subsidiaries would not be a part of the bankruptcy filing. Those entities must file under Chapter 7 rules, which are the procedures for liquidation, under the assumption that it is the best way to protect customers. The Securities Investor Protection Corporation would handle the liquidation of such brokerages, and bankruptcy lawyers say that customers are likely to receive their holdings back.
Moreover, changes to the bankruptcy code mean that counterparties to Lehmans credit-default swaps can seize their collateral at any time, posing an enormous potential risk to the entire financial markets. Investment banks, hedge funds and other financial players labored throughout Sunday to offset their exposure to Lehman, moving their contracts to other firms.
What happens to MER if the deal doesn't go through?
Idoc -
You are correct sir.
I hear Charlie Gasparino is reporting that Lehman may consider a joint bid for MER with Mamu too....
Conjure and I are getting out of $US.
Re: WaMu out there on a thin tree limb and it's windy. No fire trucks left
Some kitties have to bite it dude, sorry to be the one to let you know, but shit, don't be naive man, they have like 40,000 teenagers working there and like, what else can you do?
Sarah, if #3 is right, I'll consider being a banker. I'd put on Brooks Brothers to tend a hydro room.
Hey idoc, i never been long on market in past 6 years. My pessimism started way back in 2002. I know how many times crooks gambled the market. I lost quite lot on being short. I couldn't overcome my pessimism to be long on these years. I was wrong in my pessimism that i had low pessimism.
Still I feel strongly that the only asset that is going to be worthwile investing is courage to face the new world and earning money in hard way.
No more free money. The investment is died couple of years ago.
People feel that there is always oppertunity to make money in the market. I say to them, the rate at which companies are going to die and reborn is going be astronomical for next dacade and being right to protect the capitol is going to be nightmare.
Am I the only one here mystified that the "Visitors Online" count isn't HIGHER?
I mean, I like my NFL football as much as the next guy, and my wife is nagging me to take our toddler to the park, but how are more people not interested in finding out what's going on here?
Sometimes I'm sad that my boy won't know his grandparents, who are deceased; on the other hand - and it kills me to say this - I'm grateful that they didn't live to see what this counrty has become.
Lay, Leh, Lee, Lay, lay across my big brass bed...(2X)
I long to milk you in the night,
You can't have your cake and eat it too;
Why wait any longer for the precipice,
When its standing right in front of you.
Listening to the Michael Chertoff Houston news conference: "This is not about a screwup ..."
Bush has literally gutted the federal government. He wanted it to fail.
All of this is a Band-Aid on a shotgun wound! The markets may like it till the blood starts squirting all over the place.
Bill Gross has wet pants again, after begging Treasury to bail out Fannie! What a turd!
Pimco's Bill Gross said on Sunday that a Lehman Brother's (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) bankruptcy risks an "immediate tsunami" because of the unwinding of derivative and credit swap-related positions worldwide.
Talks to sell Lehman faltered Sunday, triggering concerns that the investment bank may be heading into bankruptcy by the end of the day and prompting banks to call an emergency trading session to unwind positions with the firm.
"It appears that Lehman will file for bankruptcy and the risk of an immediate tsunami is related to the unwind of derivative and swap-related positions worldwide in the dealer, hedge fund, and buyside universe," Gross, the chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co (Pimco), told Reuters. Pimco oversees more than $812 billion in assets.
Looks like the Fed is going to take lower quality LEH assets for treasuries to grease the wheels here. Where are they in line when those assets tank...looks like another bailout by a different name.
The fortune cookie with my Chinese food this WE said:
the article
Looks like the Fed is doing a bailout in taking the crap paper on to get and orderly bankruptcy.
LH chapter 7 will be a good test for SIPC I suppose.
That wasn't an earthquake in San Fran it was poor Mr. Giannini is turning over in his grave.
Bush has literally gutted the federal government. He wanted it to fail.
Sue (Capital S) |
More like gave it a qualuude, forced it to toot some bad marching powder, boofed it repeatedly, and then left for morning's light to fill the world.
S N
uh, yeah, i think i hear yuh ?*^%$#()
MP,
Weren't you bullish on the dollar just a few days ago? Short term anyway?
Idoc,
I meant the media idiots, not any critical thinkers on this blog.
What value could BofA possibly see in ML that warrants a premium?
John Thain's blow dried hair?
Ross writes:
Silly question but if the futures hit the circuit breaker
This is a good question....anyone know
AIG Said to Be in Talks to Raise Capital From KKR, J.C. Flowers - Bloomberg.com
About AIG.
New thread alert!!
It plays "Booyah!" and the show continues
Nothing is safe even the gold and commodity. Every one will feel the pain. This is not 1932 GD. This is going to be many many times intense, acute and seviere compared to 1932 GD.
People here in US take lots of things for granted and couldnt value intangiable value of many things. Like $ loosing it status as reserved currency. Not having couple of grand hard cash with them. Believing that every things solvable to their benefit.
BTW dont forget the check out CR adverts...it generate rev. for CR
wow, the level of anxiety, ii am not sure i ve seen anything like that.
anyway, does anyone remember what happened to the price of gold during the 87 crash, did it go up with decent volatility in a short period of time?
"Weren't you bullish on the dollar just a few days ago? Short term anyway?"
Yes, but now we're getting out. Damn.
Yikes, gotta go
Mere flesh wound.
The who is who meeting in NY must be playing new music during the launch...
YouTube - Aerosmith - Livin' On The Edge
I've looked on the NYSE web site under circuit breakers but can't find the answer.
Probably a moot point, I hope.
Folks in a town that was quite remote heard
Lay ee odl lay ee odl lay hee hoo
Men in the midst of a table heard
Lay ee odl lay ee odl lay hee hoo
Yes, but now we're getting out. Damn.
mp
better late than never.
Step 1:
Start seizing assets of all the CEOs, CFOs and any executive who drove his/her company into insolvency.
Step 2:
Impeach any politician currently in office.
Step 3:
Imprison Christopher Cox, Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan and Vladimir Henry Paulson.
Step 4:
Close Harvard.
Step 5:
Elect someone with a clue, brain and integrity...Ron Paul.
"I've looked on the NYSE web site under circuit breakers but can't find the answer."
Trading collars appear likely at the open.
Republicans are Traitors
sounds good to me.
old man gianini wouldn't be too shocked - after all, the business really took off when he set up card tables after the '06 earthquake, and really set itself up when it repossessed all of those houses in the early 30s.
@ idoc -
Thanks for the quotes.
I normally look at Kitco:
24-hour Spot Chart - Gold
But now I see NYMEX is more up-to-date:
NYMEX.com
Where are you getting your latest quotes?
Some perspective on the current financial crisis. In a year span, BS, LEH, and likely ML will no longer exist in the financial world as we have known it. That's half of the pre-crisis IB's amid the largest global expansion. Just think of the survivors and all the market share windfalls. Also, notice none of the failing IB's falling into foreingers' hands suggesting some political impediments and the desire to keep global finances are to stay in the western hemisphere. Anyway, perhaps the LEH's bk and ML's ma signal the beginning of the end for this crisis. Input anyone.
same place.
Nemo writes:
"They need some kind of positive announcement tonight. Either the SEC will announce something about short sales, or the Fed will announce something, or "Lynch America"..."
This would be perfect:
"I have never been a quitter. To leave office before my term is completed is abhorrent to every instinct in my body. But as President, I must put the interest of America first. America needs a full-time President and a full-time Congress, particularly at this time with problems we face at home and abroad. To continue to fight through the months ahead for my personal vindication would almost totally absorb the time and attention of both the President and the Congress in a period when our entire focus should be on the great issues of peace abroad and prosperity without inflation at home. Therefore, I shall resign the Presidency effective at noon tomorrow. Given the Florida fiasco we all remember, future President Obama will be sworn in as President at that hour in this office.
We may hit lock limit down, but circuit breakers require much larger percentage moves. Can;t hit circuit breakers until the market opens.
Anyone here that needs a dose of normality is reminded that the "Folsom Street Fair" starts in a week or two...
I don't know where gold and silver will go, but I do know what will happen to your savings.
The federal reserve has declared open season for savers. You will no longer get any yield, inflation will punish you and don't be surprised to have to pay more taxes on your savings.
The federal reserve has declared open season for savers. You will no longer get any yield, inflation will punish you and don't be surprised to have to pay more taxes on your savings.
Republicans are Traitors
And taxes on your employer paid healthcare benefit if McCain makes it in.
@ idoc:
ok, thanks.
Sarah Smokes Dope | Homepage | 09.14.08 - 6:12 pm | #
Welcome shady Sarah! Were you in a Dallas rehab in 1997 (GreenOaks) w/4 Louie Vuitton luggage & shit load of prohibited items? You sound so familiar to me. Whassup?
Hey...write your own material, Outsider.
Oops. So many posts, I can't keep up. A thousand apologies.
the time for PM's has arrived. don't be surprised if the pigmen try to open GDX down at the open. if so, swoop and scoop and squeeze those SOB's hard.
Nymex gold up almost a $1.00 in 15 min. to $16.70
ymex silver up $0.295 cents from 11.09.
Silly question but if the futures hit the circuit breaker before the markets opens, do they open the markets?
Ross,
I'm certainly no expert on the NYSE rules, but the answer may be in this: Rule 48. Exemptive Relief Extreme Market Volatility Condition. The exchange would have to declare it, and get the SEC to buy into it. It does refer to futures markets in a list of possible triggers.
NYSE Rules
for those who feel trapped in USD's watch oil carefully. i think energy stocks have already reversed but oil itself has not. it may go down a bit more but there's your opportunity to buy a great long term hard asset that will eventually reverse hard. don't despair, we can beat these pigmen.
Remember someone here was so into shorting DUG and dismiss the "demand destruction" theory, just before DUG had a week-long run-up. Just be very careful out there.
Thanks, S-S-D-. It would be sweet if Gross/Pimpco took a big hit on this.
mp-
If out of $US, then into what?
I'm heavily in foreign treasuries, but both Europe and Asia look bad now too.
SFR? Oil exporters?
Not even going to talk about UK.
I believe that (when all the major currencies look awful) is when people decide that they like the PMs
I know they announced a release of 306K barrels of oil from the SPR this morning. Oil should be down today.
"guarionex writes:
@ idoc: "
Nice Charts, tnx!!!
anon
if ur referring to me, yes i was early. not easy to pick the exact bottom.
however, if you'll kindly look at charts of PBR, XLE, SU bellwether energy stocks you see capitulation selling on Wed with record volume followed by even higher buying volume the next 2d. PBR has moved up 24% from the washout low which i was watching for the 45 min of continuous selling after the EIA reported huge drops in crude oil/gas inventories. price action to me indicated a coordinated shakeout with snapback buying. draw your own conclusions.
i've posted here for 2 yrs and at least i identify myself with a recognized moniker unlike anon.
ymex gold up $17.60, silver up $0.37
"Gavshire Hathaway writes:
If BoA buys MER at $38B as discussed, BAC is a short to zero IMO.
Gavshire Hathaway | 09.14.08 - 6:06 pm | # "
As an FYI. SKF the ultra short and SEF which is simply short the Dow Jones US Financials Sector has top 10 holdings as follows:
JPMorgan Chase & Co. 6.10%
Bank of America Corp. 5.60%
Citigroup Inc. 4.70%
Wells Fargo & Co. 3.81%
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. 3.24%
American International Group Inc. 3.19%
U.S. Bancorp 2.48%
Bank of New York Mellon Corp. 2.22%
American Express Co. 1.99%
Morgan Stanley 1.87%
Merrill Lynch is just down the list a smidge and comes in a hair under 1%. Also in the top holdings are AIG and Wachovia....
NOTE: SKF and SEF and UYG have nothing to do with XLF. Completely different indexes that they are based on...
BOA is buying Merrill at 36 eh.
That might explain why all the insiders bought ~18 million worth a couple of weeks ago.
Significant Insider Buys: Merrill Lynch, XL | Freund Investing | Professional Investment Advisors
Is the federal government loaning money to the federal reserve?
I smell BULLSHIT. When in the hell are they going to stop this crap. Need a rule that states: No source named you can't report it.
Republicans are Traitors: Step 2: Impeach any politician currently in office.
[snip]
Step 5: Elect someone with a clue, brain and integrity...Ron Paul.
Um, Ron Paul is a politician currently in office.
Today is finished. There will be lots more fun tomorrow. Sleep well.