Lehman will seek to place its parent company, Lehman Brothers Holdings, into bankruptcy protection, while its subsidiaries will remain solvent while the firm liquidates its holdings, these people said. A consortium of banks will provide a financial backstop to help provide an orderly winding down of the 158-year-old investment bank. And the Federal Reserve has agreed to accept lower-quality assets in return for loans from the government.
I knew it! The 'backstop' is going to be financed by...?
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the financial crisis that began with the collapse of the subprime-mortgage market last year ``is probably a once in a century event'' that will lead to the failure of more firms.
There's no question that this is in the process of outstripping anything I've seen, and it is still not resolved,'' Greenspan said in an interview today on ABC'sThis Week with George Stephanopoulos.'' Greenspan, 82, retired from the Fed in January 2006 after serving for 18 years as chairman.
The Sep '08 futures expire on Friday, together with equity options and futures options (so-called "triple-witching"). It might -- just might -- be a volatile week in the markets.
Hmm category 2 hurricane Ike hits Houston and category 5 hurricane Lehman hit NY. From the looks of the futures market I think hurricane Lehman will cause more destruction.
The raptors test the fence for weak spots,'' said Vincent Reinhart, a former director of the Federal Reserve Board's Division of Monetary Affairs who is now a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.The speculators think the authorities will blink, and the authorities think the speculators will run out of funds.'
AP
Banks said to unveil plan to restore confidence
Sunday September 14, 6:22 pm ET
By Joe Bel Bruno, AP Business Writer
AP Source: Global banks to unveil massive lending program to help restore confidence
NEW YORK (AP) -- A top investment banking official says U.S. and foreign banks are planning major steps to inoculate the global financial system as a bankruptcy filing by Lehman Brothers appeared likely.
The official said Sunday the banks would create a pool of money up to $50 billion to lend troubled financial companies. And officials at the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve are expected to say they are prepared to make additional loans.
The plan comes as top government officials and Wall Street executives hold marathon meetings about Lehman's future.
The official says the Fed and Treasury are pushing Bank of America to buy Merrill Lynch. The person, with direct knowledge of the talks, was not authorized to speak publicly because the discussions were ongoing.
Hey anybody think the timing of this is supicious with the Asian markets offline tomorrow? They are going to get buried if it's a humdinger of a sell off...
Tightening access to international credit and mounting stock losses are hurting Russian billionaires as well as state- owned corporations, prompting calls by businessmen to heed Western complaints over Kremlin policy in Georgia.
The country's biggest business association, the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, will raise the issue today at a meeting with President Dmitry Medvedev, said Igor Yurgens, a board member and adviser to Medvedev.
This is a natural alarm clock,'' Yurgens said in an interview.It's a concern to big owners, it's a concern to the Russian economy. There are limits to what Russia can do alone if it chooses to be isolated.''
The Merrill-BofA deal is moving closer but could still falter. A deal is expected at $26 per share or higher. Meanwhile, AIG is set to shift capital from its regulated insurance business to a holding company. Complete stories to follow.
"It's a bailout again....Taking worthless paper into the fed reserve book is a bailout..."
Vladimir Bernanke and Hank Putin are betting that the American public can't figure that out. Unfortunately, there are only about 700 CR readers that know different.
Credit-default swaps on AIG, the biggest U.S. insurer, soared on concern that it may be the next big financial firm to run short of capital after $587 billion in contracts guaranteeing home loans, corporate bonds and other investments plunged in value. Standard & Poor's and Moody's Investors Service have said AIG's credit ratings may be cut if its mortgage assets fall further or if potential capital needs aren't addressed. AIG may have to post more than $13 billion of collateral following a downgrade, it has said in regulatory filings.
Turnaround Plan
Credit-default swap sellers demanded 12.5 percentage points upfront and 5 percentage points a year to protect AIG bonds from default for five years, according to broker Phoenix Partners Group. That means it would cost $1.25 million initially and $500,000 a year to protect $10 million in AIG bonds for five years. Yesterday, it cost $688,000 a year with no upfront payment, according to CMA Datavision.
AIG's market value shrank by 46 percent this week on concern its credit ratings will be cut. Chief Executive Officer Robert Willumstad has promised to deliver a turnaround plan on Sept. 25 after the firm posted three straight quarterly losses totaling $18.5 billion. The plan may be announced sooner, a person familiar with the company said.
``As distressed as they are, raising new capital could be extremely hard,'' said Tim Backshall, chief strategist at Credit Derivatives Research LLC in Walnut Creek, California, today in an e-mail.
I think the BOFA and Merrill deals are just smoke and mirrors. They wan't to make such a complex model that no one will be able to figure out what the business is worth.
Investors are showing less fear after the Fed set up special lending facilities following the Bear Stearns bailout, giving securities firms the same access to its cash as commercial banks. The ability to tap the Fed for funds means financial troubles at one investment bank are unlikely to bring down others.
We've learned that no dealer's going to fail,'' said Julian Mann, a bond manager at First Pacific Advisors LLC in Los Angeles, which oversees $11 billion.The equity may be worthless, but the trades are honored.''
A smiling face just showed up,so it is time to toss some Bambi Burgers on the grill,and pour a glass of Pinot,whetstone's single vineyard "Bella Vigna".My neighbor makes some good stuff,Carpe Diem.
Old news, but related: JPMorgan Chase & Co. will stop selling interest-rate swaps to government borrowers in the $2.6 trillion U.S. municipal bond market roiled by an antitrust probe and the near bankruptcy of Alabama's most-populous county.
At least seven former JPMorgan bankers are under scrutiny in a Justice Department criminal investigation of whether banks conspired to overcharge local governments on swaps and other derivatives. The bank also is embroiled in negotiations over how to resolve a debt crisis with Jefferson County, Alabama, where the county's former adviser says a group of firms led by JPMorgan, the third-largest U.S. bank by assets, overcharged it by as much as $100 million for financing a new sewer system.
Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Moody's Investors Service is about to tell as many as 29,000 U.S. state and local government borrowers that they have higher credit ratings. That doesn't mean taxpayers will enjoy lower borrowing costs anytime soon.
Next month Moody's will start changing how it assesses tax- exempt bonds, a move that will boost ratings by an average of one to two grades for cities and towns. Even with the expected increases, a tax-exempt borrower currently rated A is being charged an extra $6 million in annual interest to sell $1 billion of bonds, up from about $2 million a year ago, according to Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. data compiled by Bloomberg. Moody's Loses Credibility; Muni Ranks Mean No Savings (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Call it what you want, it's still a bailout when you "accept lower-quality assets in return for loans from the government." You might as well take Hummel figurines and Franklin Mint miniatures as collateral.
What about the Brinker finance man saying "Pull your $ from WAMU?" Isn't a bank run in the works? Combined with Merrill, Lehman, and the problems with damaged rigs in the Gulf? Plus another potential hurricane? Plus the Pakistan military getting all worked up about Bush allowing US Special forces to conduct ops in their country without prior approval. Plus Iran getting ready to light off their nuke reactor?
Deep breath
Ok, not a problem with the crack leadership team we have in the Whitehouse.
In case you forget: In 1984, Palin won the Miss Wasilla Pageant,[10][11] then finished third (second runner-up) in the Miss Alaska pageant,[12][13] at which she won a college scholarship and the "Miss Congeniality" award.[14] Palin admits to trying marijuana as a youth, during the time Alaska had decriminalized possession, though she says she did not enjoy it..
Yah right, how many pounds did it take for that conclusion?
I can't figure out how people in Europe and China think they will go unscathed. These IBs are heavily exposed to oversees institutions. Say bye, bye to the afternoon nap.
can one of the idiots using the word "bailout" in their post please explain what that means because, try as i might, i don't see BK and bailout having anything to do with each other. or do you just believe whatever anyone tells you? because i'd like to take the other side of all of your trades...
And remember tomorrow, while you are dipping your fingers in the blood coming from LEH's head after the blade falls, you need to look at who is up next at the scaffold. and play your cards accordingly. this is far from over....
australian swap rates down 20 bp at the oen. this is not good for anyone anywhere. a small treasury contingent liability could have saved lehman and what will be a worsening of the credit contraction that will hit the global economy. very very shortsighted of paulson and the treasury.
Ip,
LEH can file for bk protection and still dump a bunch of garbage on the taxpayer. Then they will come out of BK with a company void of debt. The CEO will make a couple hundred million and everyone will praise capitalism. The only problem is the debt will still be worthless paper carried by the gov't.
and did anyone really think that there was any reason to save LEH when you can pick up a better deal in BK? And just you wait until the sector processes what LEH's mortgage holdings are worth. There will be a lot more confessional time in the months ahead.
meanwhile, just to prove that no one needed these assclowns anyhow, the rest of the world will keep on spinning as the shadow banking system collapses. and if you're the fed, is that such a bad thing? think about it...seems there is no honor amoung those thieves is there? they wouldn't even pony up to save their own business models...
And the Federal Reserve has agreed to accept lower-quality assets in return for loans from the government.
If the central bank is exposing itself to credit risk, then it is a bail-out. If not, then I agree with you. We lack the information to decide.
Best case, the Fed will just keep the juices flowing while everything unwinds. Worst case, they get stuck with garbage on their balance sheet. Again, we lack the information at this point to know.
"The average age of the world's greatest civilization has been two hundred years. These nations have progressed through this sequence. From bondage to spiritual faith; from spiritual faith to great courage; from courage to liberty; from liberty to abundance, from abundance to complacency; from complacency to apathy, from apathy to dependence, from dependence back into bondage."
Alexander Tyler circa 1787 re the
fall of the Athenian Republic.
my comment was meant to say, please tell me how, because i can't see any whay dumping anything on "the taxpayer" is possible here. so please enlighten us
last i checked Nemo, these were being taken at a discount, and the lower quality ones at a much steeper discount. furthermore, those get paid off at par in a BK in the first round. so how is this dumpage?
I have some connections at Lehman. I was told I was "a lock" for an internship there next summer. They currently aren't answering the phone. Will this affect their intern program?
Ip,
Loan guarantees backed by worthless "assets" for starters. But I'm sure Benny and the boys will create something really exciting like TAF for IB's.
This might be simplistic, but I don't see how today's trading session should be tolerated by a Bankruptcy court.
Lehman has assets and obligations to numerous parties not in the trading session. In an unscheduled session, only a small group of counterparties are allowed to swap assets and obligations involving Lehman.
This, naturally, reduces the assets of Lehman available to parties not privy to today's trading. Did the parties privy to today's trading get full credit for the Lehman obligations they released in the trades?
Even if not "full credit", who decided what was exchangeable?
I hope parties not invited to today's session file an emergency request with the bankruptcy court to nullify today's trading.
This seems almost certain to be a fleecing of all other Lehman creditors, and Lehman assets should be distributed only by or at the authority of a BK trustee.
and ella your point is what? what is your point please? the pointless posts around here are really getting out of control. did you all escape from yahoo finance or mish's blog or housing bubble blog?
ipod: if the treasury has to take them then it is because nobody else will. Hint: what does that tell you about the price they are offering, and the open market price?
"We have, in this country, one of the most corrupt institutions the world has ever known. I refer to the Federal Reserve Board. This evil institution has impoverished the people of the United States and has practically bankrupted our government. It has done this through the corrupt practices of the moneyed vultures who control it". -- Congressman Louis T. McFadde
Leh parent is C11, broker dealer is C7, and it looks as if it's trying to ring fence and let the other "solvent" subsidiaries operate. In the olden days a "parent" holding company was not allowed because it allowed asset shifting, tax evasion, etc; but that was long ago in a far away place before Greenspan.
They are still takin on paper of substandard quality which will provide the cash to the banks tomorrow when liquidity is gone.
Hopefully people don't get around to asking who's going to bailout the Fed and the US government if their balance sheet begins to collapse under the weight of all this garbage.
If people begin to think that maybe a bailout just moves the problem from one balance sheet to another, instead of solving it, then things could get real ugly, real fast.
Yes, the Fed accepts a wide variety of collateral at the discount window, and also (I believe) the PDCF and TSLF.
But the article says the Fed has agreed "to accept lower-quality assets", which sounds like something new. I would hope you are right, but as I said, we lack the information to be sure. How far would the Fed go to prevent Lehman's collapse from contaminating the entire system, do you think?
Whether this turns out to be a bail-out depends largely on what happens in the next few days.
ella, this doesn't involve the taxpayer. i have no idea what anyone is smoking, but the knowledge level here seems to have hit a new low.
and a BK here is probably the only option to stop disorder. the bad news is the equity holders are wiped out utterly, and the bond holders are also going to take it in the shorts. actually, i think this is a good thing. here is what happens when you forget about what the word "risk" means.
and the only thing the taxpayer should be worried about is the influx of all those people working for the financial sector into the Social Security roles because a lot of people's retirement just went up in smoke. And there is a lot more coming too. Wait until these trades unwind and make the weak even weaker. Watch MER next.
The White House budget office said yesterday that it has decided not to incorporate mortgage-finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into the federal budget, citing the temporary nature of the Treasury Department's takeover and "the level of federal ownership" of the firms.
The decision affects the way public expenditures on the two companies will be reflected in official budget projections. Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. has pledged to invest as much as $200 billion to keep the firms solvent.
On Tuesday, two days after the takeover, officials at the Congressional Budget Office announced that the deal had bound the government so tightly to the firms that their business operations, assets and liabilities should be included in the government's balance sheets
But the article says the Fed has agreed "to accept lower-quality assets", which sounds like something new.
How come people don't complain about this like they would if the federal government decided to use their backyard as a dumping ground for radioactive waste so it doesn't make the people on Wall Street sick?
if Only i could buy some long dated puts on upmarket nyc condo prices. Or corcoran fees. 25000 bankers cannot get absorbed by a job market that already coped with bear and now mer/bofa ..
This is another rear-guard action. Usually the rear-guard is holding off to get the troops to a point at which they can extricate themselves. With all the stuff happening, how will that happen? Oh yeah, open the liquidity tap and keep something in the bucket despite the hole.
And yes, it is a bail since the taxpayer is on the hook for the crap.
And I believe that Bernanke already set up a window for the IBs after BSC. PDFC? PFCD? Whatever, it already exists.
AS I PASS through my incarnations in every age and race,
I make my proper prostrations to the Gods of the Market Place.
Peering through reverent fingers I watch them flourish and fall,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings, I notice, outlast them all.
We were living in trees when they met us. They showed us each in turn
That Water would certainly wet us, as Fire would certainly burn:
But we found them lacking in Uplift, Vision and Breadth of Mind,
So we left them to teach the Gorillas while we followed the March of Mankind.
We moved as the Spirit listed. They never altered their pace,
Being neither cloud nor wind-borne like the Gods of the Market Place,
But they always caught up with our progress, and presently word would come
That a tribe had been wiped off its icefield, or the lights had gone out in Rome.
With the Hopes that our World is built on they were utterly out of touch,
They denied that the Moon was Stilton; they denied she was even Dutch;
They denied that Wishes were Horses; they denied that a Pig had Wings;
So we worshipped the Gods of the Market Who promised these beautiful things.
When the Cambrian measures were forming, They promised perpetual peace.
They swore, if we gave them our weapons, that the wars of the tribes would cease.
But when we disarmed They sold us and delivered us bound to our foe,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "Stick to the Devil you know."
On the first Feminian Sandstones we were promised the Fuller Life
(Which started by loving our neighbour and ended by loving his wife)
Till our women had no more children and the men lost reason and faith,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "The Wages of Sin is Death."
In the Carboniferous Epoch we were promised abundance for all,
By robbing selected Peter to pay for collective Paul;
But, though we had plenty of money, there was nothing our money could buy,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "If you don't work you die."
Then the Gods of the Market tumbled, and their smooth-tongued wizards withdrew
And the hearts of the meanest were humbled and began to believe it was true
That All is not Gold that Glitters, and Two and Two make Four
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings limped up to explain it once more.
As it will be in the future, it was at the birth of Man
There are only four things certain since Social Progress began.
That the Dog returns to his Vomit and the Sow returns to her Mire,
And the burnt Fool's bandaged finger goes wabbling back to the Fire;
And that after this is accomplished, and the brave new world begins
When all men are paid for existing and no man must pay for his sins,
As surely as Water will wet us, as surely as Fire will bum,
The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return.
I guess, Nemo, that I just object to the "blah blah blah taxpayer blah blah blah" lines without any knowledge. And i have no problem with accepting anything as collateral at the window, even some of the executives hand-made italian suits, so long as they are properly discounted. that's the way it should be.
and that's not even the most interesting thing about all of this anyhow. the interesting bits are, what is the franchise worth, what happens to the counter-parties, what about the bond holders, and the most philosophical question...is the business model dead? And if it is, that means it's dead around the world.
Bill "chicken" gross (protagonist of wall street welfare) chimed in on CNBC Asia that Lehman Liquidation will cause tsunami in swaps & some such instruments...
"And the Federal Reserve has agreed to accept lower-quality assets in return for loans from the government." Loans from the government are the same as loans from the taxpayer.
The White House budget office said yesterday that it has decided not to incorporate mortgage-finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into the federal budget...
In other news a multi-national concil has announced that term "Planet Earth" will no longer be used in official communications.
And yes, it is a bail since the taxpayer is on the hook for the crap.
again, because no one has answered the question here, exactly how homedad is the taxpayer involed in an LEH BK filing? I really want to know becuase, you know for the life of all my experience and education, I can't figure out how. Perhaps I should have just skipped grad school and just read the blog posts here...
I know very little about the financial sector, and you all seem to know a lot, so I hope you don't mind if I ask what I am sure will seem like a stupid question.
My retired aunt has most of her holdings with Merrill. Since she is retired, I assume much of her holdings are in bonds. What happens to those if Merrill goes bankrupt? I assume she loses whatever cash she has with them, but what about the rest of her portfolio,
The problem with saying "taxpayer" is that it seems to imply that government revenue per se is going to be spent "making the bankruptcy happen."
Is it better to say that, in order to expedite the bankruptcy, the Treasury has agreed to transfer some risk -- and most likely, liability -- onto the public?
"I guess, Nemo, that I just object to the "blah blah blah taxpayer blah blah blah" lines without any knowledge. And i have no problem with accepting anything as collateral at the window, even some of the executives hand-made italian suits, so long as they are properly discounted. that's the way it should be."
The FED accepted MBS as collateral with a haircut. The government by backstopping FNM/FRE made MBS whole.
In other words the FED (a private institution) made money via .gov (the US taxpayers).
You might not have a problem with this arrangement but I surely do.
Then again you've been arguing all along, screw the moral hazard issue, we need to save the system.
Note we predicted that the authorities would lower collateral standards as a finesse for Lehman. This is a back-door bailout. Dow futures opened down 300 and S&P futures down 37, which would seem subdued ex the stealth provision of central bank support.
Update 6:55 PM Reader Jim Bianco e-mailed this observation on the futures trading:
Its all about Merrill. They need to announce a deal with BAC before the open. If they do not, they plunge to $10 to $12 (from $17) on tomorrows open and no way does BAC pay $25 to $30. Then Merrill is at risk of blowing up and a crash becomes very possible.
If you are less than 40 yrs of age and not financially well off then you are basically screwed....
25+ yrs of industrial production decline and increasingly financial engineered driven bullshit for the US economy ( especially last 8 yrs under Bush ) with massive market bubbles has created systemic damage.
And if you vote for McSame you are ignorant or a glutton for more punishment.
I'm going to pledge by '83 dodge as collateral (750k miles) tomorrow to get a loan so I can loan it to my father who needs to pay off a few of his credit card bills.
"Are we saving the system by institutionalizing dishonesty and criminal behavior?"
Newsflash: that's exactly what FRNs have been for 35 years - a crystallization of the above. The period from 1981-2000 was the freakish anomaly, the time before and since was the normal reaction to having this as our ballast.
"Its all about Merrill. They need to announce a deal with BAC before the open. If they do not, they plunge to $10 to $12 (from $17) on tomorrows open and no way does BAC pay $25 to $30. Then Merrill is at risk of blowing up and a crash becomes very possible."
So why not just let it fall then pick it up for $15 per share?
"And i have no problem with accepting anything as collateral at the window, even some of the executives hand-made italian suits, so long as they are properly discounted."
So this collateral is presumed to have some intrinsic worth above zero? The suits can be cleaned, pressed and rented out?
I'll be surprised if the MER deal goes through at that price ultimately...or if it goes through at all.
And remember I keep telling you, while you're so busy freaking out over this, you should be paying attention to AIG, which is far more interesting and has much more damage potential.
"Seems to me we're just selling our soul to the Devil, so to speak, for a second chance."
When Bush decided it was fine to inflict the same torture on our captives that the NVA inflicted on John McCain, the Devil made the buy then. All this stuff now is just arranging the financing of the sale.
km4 is correct, under 40 folks are f$cked, but we have our health....good luck to the boomers who need health care in the future....I will do my best to make sure I vote seniors to eat cat food for what they have done to this country.
Hmmm...i will see what I can find out about MER/BOA counter-party crap and other entanglements. perhaps BOA is just covering its ass here, much the same Jamie did on the BSC deal by taking it all in-house. Perhaps it's the only thing to do. But they are going to be severely hurting from this and the CW deal...
Fannie, Freddie to Be Kept Off Federal Budget
Sarah Smokes Dope
Nothing of any import makes the Fed Budget anymore. Wars? nope Financial Implosions? nope It's all free money made with Bernanke's "secret weapon"...the printing press. Now the fact that future generations have to pay for this? Not on my watch says Bushco.
How could MER possibly command a $29 price? They're currently at $18, without news they tank tomorrow. And BAC is foolish enough to pull the trigger early with a premium over current price? Nobody is that stupid unless they're gambling with gov't funds
at this point,,i dont think the gov. will allow AIG to be downgraded knowing full well that a 46 billion cash call would make everything that happened today look like playtime...
Note that the BIG Dow Futures CR links to tend to be a bit less liquid in electronic because of their size (look the the ETS volume). In contrast, the prices from the regular DOW Futures at
ipodious, would you please stop being so sanctimonious and patronizing. we are well aware aig is the bigger deal. the nice posts from nemo several days ago illustrated that in stark numbers.
If those futures stick, Monday will be a trend day - down 5% at least from Friday's close to Monday's low. SPX 1190 minimal target. If those futures hold
"Why? If BoA is an acquirer, they want MER cheap, not expensive."
That's funny. Does anyone really think the game is about acquiring assets at an "undervalued" price instead of just forestalling general financial meltdown?
"Greenspan, 82, retired from the Fed in January 2006 after serving for 18 years as chairman"...you forgot the rest: "and leaving a stinking mess behind that he didn't bother to clean up leaving that to others"........
I happen to have all nine of my teenage grandchildren visiting this afternoon. I went over with them what is happeing and tried to explain that their future just got real challenging. They can't believe the government is not able to save them. I have failed. They still believe, for now.
So we head down 400 points in the morning? SO what? The market has been overvalued for years and the earnings yield are bullshit. Reality is good and America should not depend on synthetic bullshit to pump growth bubbles. The Dow should reset at 7500, so relax and be patient, that is unless it's God's Plan to stuff that reatrd Palin into office and screw this up even more! Don't get me wrong, I think Obama is very limited and will not solve much of anything, but at least change will be attempted (I hope).
"And the Federal Reserve has agreed to accept lower-quality assets in return for loans from the government."
If so then this is indeed just another taxpayer bailout and an open door for financial firms to dump garbage onto the publics balance sheet and take even more of exactly the sort of risks that got us where we are now.
Paying good money for trash is no different than simply giving that money away.
A 30 billion sweetener given to JPM to gobble up BS was not considered tax-payer financed bailout by someone here. How can tax-payers' funds being used to mop up "lower quality" assets, assets that no one wants, be considered a bail out? No way.
We are there. We are witnessing the beginning of a new era.
Just as the Rissian invasion of Georgia has ushered in a new era of great power politics (or the end of the post Cold-War period) the failure of Lehman marks the end of the "Greenspan Put".
The Put dates back IMO to about 1997, when we used low interest rates and liquidity to manage the Asian currency meltdown. Since then there have been numerous interventions and bailouts.
Now the Fed/Treasury's "hand" has been exposed. No more bailouts for eveyone. The implicit assumptions of assistance will change.
There is some good news in this. It's "the beginning of the bottoming process". The bottoming may take a few years, but the real economy, and real evaluations of value and risk, are going to be returning.
and the tone of that post was what, squeezed? if you don't like what i say, don't read my posts. trust me, i won't lose any sleep over the thought.
so now that the rumor is 29 for MER, we have to back into the number somehow by figuring out what BOA's current exposure is to anything MER has, and that's part of the price. i can't imagine that anyone is thrilled, though, at what LEH's book will go for at auction. but everyone must have calculated that whatever the mark is, picking up LEH assets out of BK will make enough money to offset some of the pain here.
And AIG is now dumping assets too. But the Fed doesn't have authority over an insurance entity...this is very interesting.
They can't believe the government is not able to save them. I have failed.
Nonsense.
There are things that all of our grandparents told us which took years to sink in. Some of it took so damn long in my case that sadly they were around to thank anymore. But I expect it was the same with their grandparents too.
What are the odds of the Fed doing an emergency 8:30AM rate cut tomorrow?
less than zero. this was the line in the sand, and ammo needs to be saved for a couple of big banks that will go down too.
and i agree this is historic. you are watching the end of the shadow banking system as it was known, and the end of modern finance as it became in the last quarter century. but something will come out of it.
If so then this is indeed just another taxpayer bailout
Not necessarily. If the assets are subject to a sufficient "haircut", and the Fed is sufficiently close to the head of the line in liquidation, then this could just be a means to slow down the "fire sale" of Lehman's (CRE?) assets.
Give the Fed and Treasury at least a little credit here; they are clearly allowing the firm to fail. They still have an interest (and a mandate) to try to stave off a systemic meltdown.
I think ipodius is overstating his case, but I also think the "this is a bail-out!!!" crowd are overstating theirs. I cannot say I have any particular problem with any of the Fed's and Treasury's actions this weekend, at least from what we have heard thus far.
Perhaps my use of the term "taxpayer" was a bit incorrect. Maria Slartibartfast (Love that name) said it better.
"Is it better to say that, in order to expedite the bankruptcy, the Treasury has agreed to transfer some risk -- and most likely, liability -- onto the public?"
Regardless of the exact verbiage, the public trough is again open for the trash. At some point, we pay.
Perhaps my use of the term "taxpayer" was a bit incorrect. Maria Slartibartfast (Love that name) said it better.
"Is it better to say that, in order to expedite the bankruptcy, the Treasury has agreed to transfer some risk -- and most likely, liability -- onto the public?"
Regardless of the exact verbiage, the public trough is again open for the trash. At some point, we pay.
"There is some good news in this. It's "the beginning of the bottoming process". The bottoming may take a few years, but the real economy, and real evaluations of value and risk, are going to be returning."
Mozo Maz
Agreed - I think this is one of the most positive events since the creit ubble started deflating. Whether because Hank found his manhood, or just reluctantly admitted there was a limit to what he could, I think it marks a turning point.
Actually this mess goes back to LBJ and guns and butter. Esentially off balance sheet items and unfunded future liabilities. It just got progressively out of hand.
It takes a long time to find a tipping point. Greenspan was certainly responsable for using an accelerent but he had a lot of help.
Camel's nose was under the tent way back then.
This too shall pass. It won't be pretty but discipline will be restored.
Dr. (bend the spoon) Roubini is quite perceptive. I love the guy!
The U.S. dollar slid against the yen and euro in Asian trade on Monday as talks to rescue Lehman Brothers Holdings (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) faltered, fuelling concerns over the stability of the U.S. financial system and sparking talk of a possible rate cut there.
Not necessarily. If the assets are subject to a sufficient "haircut", and the Fed is sufficiently close to the head of the line in liquidation, then this could just be a means to slow down the "fire sale" of Lehman's (CRE?) assets.
Give the Fed and Treasury at least a little credit here; they are clearly allowing the firm to fail. They still have an interest (and a mandate) to try to stave off a systemic meltdown.
I think ipodius is overstating his case, but I also think the "this is a bail-out!!!" crowd are overstating theirs. I cannot say I have any particular problem with any of the Fed's and Treasury's actions this weekend, at least from what we have heard thus far.
I'm just commenting more generally, Nemo.
I don't know any of the specifics of what's going on here.
I'm just trying to point out that intentionally paying too much for something is just another method of giving away money.
The White House declined on Sunday to comment on the latest developments involving Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), but said U.S. President George W. Bush in general keeps in close touch with key officials on pressing financial matters.
"The president and his staff stay in close and frequent contact with Treasury Secretary (Henry) Paulson and other senior economic officials on all pressing financial market issues," said White House spokesman Tony Fratto.
They can't believe the government is not able to save them.
An attitude by no means limited to grandchildren.
My own epiphany on this point came back during the S&L meltdown. Some reporter was doing on-the-street interviews about the mess, asking passersby what should be done about it. One person's response: "why should the taxpayers bail out the S&Ls--why can't the government do it?"
We can talk about AIG all we want, and what's Paulson going to do about it.
But this firm is not a Commercial Bank, S&L or IB. It is an insurance company and as such, there's no venue for the Federal Government to do anything.
It is the purview of the Department of Insurance (or whatever the hell they call it) for whichever state is the state of residence for the parent corporation.
Trucks will be arriving all night in order to stock up for our big Monday Sale of Wall Street Size Depends and pints of Val-U-Rite Vodka. We were going to call it the SPINCO sale, but that just didn't work out. You know, like selling AAA rated toxic MBS.
well, all the boys got put in one room but they all decided that to pony money up was less attractive then to let the chips fall. which means that the people with the cash want to pick over good assets and let firms go BK. that's what should happen.
LEH made bad investment decisions. it now bears the responsibility and the government has stepped aside and told wall street to deal with its own. trust me, there will be A LOT of money made from these failures. none of this stuff is worth zero.
I suppose the worry is whoever is on the other side of their credit default swaps.
Ziggurat, indeed that is the worry. and outside of the federal power stucture to facilitate a solution for. someone is going to lose a ton of money here...and watch the hedge funds. a lot of wealth will be evaporated by next week. a lot.
I still think WaMu may end up being the biggest story of all.
Nemo
I agree, because much as we've been watching all these convolutions for hours, Average Annie and Andy could care less. They will here that on the news and go "Oh, that's those people on Wall Street. But Grandma standing in line outside her bank or 6 of the 18 nurses on our floor that I work with calling in sick so they can get in line? Multiple that by the number of branches across the country? THAT will get Annie and Andy's attention.
I Like Ike, I think we should all be thankful for the excellent work at the NY Times, WSJ, Bloomberg and other media sites. They've done an excellent job.
. . .you are watching the end of the shadow banking system as it was known, and the end of modern finance as it became in the last quarter century. . .
First
Well I guess all the king's men and horses didn't care enough to put Lehman back together again...
I think "C.D.S. and the Seized Collaterals" would be a great name for a band.
Yee--haaaa!!!
Very stupid question, but where do you find the futures quotes?
Monday, bloody monday......
Does this mean "spinco" is dead? LMFAO!!
1 down, 3 more to go
Asian Market: "You white dudes will eat flied lice for lunch Tuesday."
Financial Depends Pads, for those moments when you need good protection with slightly more absorbency!
the world will be better off with out high finance
Lehman will seek to place its parent company, Lehman Brothers Holdings, into bankruptcy protection, while its subsidiaries will remain solvent while the firm liquidates its holdings, these people said. A consortium of banks will provide a financial backstop to help provide an orderly winding down of the 158-year-old investment bank. And the Federal Reserve has agreed to accept lower-quality assets in return for loans from the government.
I knew it! The 'backstop' is going to be financed by...?
Lawyerliz,
Here I think:
Pre-Market Data, Stock Market Quotes, Fair Value, Futures, Volatility Index, World Markets Information - CNBC.com
Futures at Bloomberg---Dow down 300
High Finance....haha...how apropos
Lizbaby dude:
CME Group - Home
lawyerliz,
Right hand column on Bloomberg.com
ooops! Wrong one. LOL!
Did anyone else load up on LEH 2.5 puts on Friday?
Thanx Sarah & Disempowered.
September 15, 2008
The day the music died...
(With many thanks to Charles Prince)
Liz here:
Stock Futures on Bloomberg
Did anyone else load up on LEH 2.5 puts on Friday?
Yeah, switched out my 4's for 2.5's.
If AIG is downgraded tuesday,,they will have a cash call of around 46 billion,,man, now thats a lot of money.
aig moving cash from regulated subs to holdco..
Liz,
If you have cable, go to Bloomberg and they roll the tape.
Also the Bloomies public site will give you info on stocks and commodities.
Greenspan Says Crisis May Be `Once in Century' Event (Update1)
Greenspan Says Crisis May Be `Once in Century' Event (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the financial crisis that began with the collapse of the subprime-mortgage market last year ``is probably a once in a century event'' that will lead to the failure of more firms.
There's no question that this is in the process of outstripping anything I've seen, and it is still not resolved,'' Greenspan said in an interview today on ABC'sThis Week with George Stephanopoulos.'' Greenspan, 82, retired from the Fed in January 2006 after serving for 18 years as chairman.
What's 46b between friends?
I am going to cook (not squirrel, but orange roughy) and watch trashy tv, or I will have a heart attack.
Awesome coverage, today CR! Been glued to the screen.
Lawyerliz --
Several of the financial sites have them; e.g.
Stock Futures on Bloomberg
Not sure if they are real-time, though. You can also get them on Yahoo, but the ticker keeps changing as each expiration passes:
Symbol Lookup from Yahoo! Finance
The Sep '08 futures expire on Friday, together with equity options and futures options (so-called "triple-witching"). It might -- just might -- be a volatile week in the markets.
Hmm category 2 hurricane Ike hits Houston and category 5 hurricane Lehman hit NY. From the looks of the futures market I think hurricane Lehman will cause more destruction.
Wall Street readied for a potential Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. bankruptcy after Bank of America Corp. and Barclays Plc pulled out of talks to buy it and the government indicated it wouldn't provide funds to prevent a collapse.
Wall Street Prepares for Potential Lehman Bankruptcy (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
It's a bailout again....Taking worthless paper into the fed reserve book is a bailout...
Paulson, Bernanke Brave `Raptors,' Resist Lehman Aid (Update1
Paulson, Bernanke Brave `Raptors,' Resist Lehman Aid (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Henry Paulson and Ben S. Bernanke may have to weather more speculative attacks on financial institutions as they resist using public funds to aid the sale of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
The raptors test the fence for weak spots,'' said Vincent Reinhart, a former director of the Federal Reserve Board's Division of Monetary Affairs who is now a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.The speculators think the authorities will blink, and the authorities think the speculators will run out of funds.'
Dunno if posted yet.
Expired
AP
Banks said to unveil plan to restore confidence
Sunday September 14, 6:22 pm ET
By Joe Bel Bruno, AP Business Writer
AP Source: Global banks to unveil massive lending program to help restore confidence
NEW YORK (AP) -- A top investment banking official says U.S. and foreign banks are planning major steps to inoculate the global financial system as a bankruptcy filing by Lehman Brothers appeared likely.
The official said Sunday the banks would create a pool of money up to $50 billion to lend troubled financial companies. And officials at the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve are expected to say they are prepared to make additional loans.
The plan comes as top government officials and Wall Street executives hold marathon meetings about Lehman's future.
The official says the Fed and Treasury are pushing Bank of America to buy Merrill Lynch. The person, with direct knowledge of the talks, was not authorized to speak publicly because the discussions were ongoing.
Re: The raptors test the fence for weak spots,'
Which is what Palin is all about...
Hmm. If we open down 300, I think I still short into it.
639 online on a Sunday afternoon.
Hey anybody think the timing of this is supicious with the Asian markets offline tomorrow? They are going to get buried if it's a humdinger of a sell off...
Tightening access to international credit and mounting stock losses are hurting Russian billionaires as well as state- owned corporations, prompting calls by businessmen to heed Western complaints over Kremlin policy in Georgia.
The country's biggest business association, the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, will raise the issue today at a meeting with President Dmitry Medvedev, said Igor Yurgens, a board member and adviser to Medvedev.
This is a natural alarm clock,'' Yurgens said in an interview.It's a concern to big owners, it's a concern to the Russian economy. There are limits to what Russia can do alone if it chooses to be isolated.''
Global recession!
CME eminis are the most fun as there is a futures chain too:
Symbol Lookup from Yahoo! Finance
Did they mean raptor, meat-eating dino or raptor, F-22 Lockheed killing machine?
LEH PUT JAN 15 (LYHMC)\t \t 400 \t 1,527.00 \t 1,552.99 \t -25.99 \t
LEH PUT OCT 15 (LYHVC)\t \t 3,500 \t 9,768.73 \t 10,381.22 \t -612.49 \t
You're looking at the guy who lost $600+ shorting LEH this month.
My oh my, looks like the bankruptcy reform act has bitten another debtor in the arse.
"Fed and Treasury are pushing Bank of America to buy Merrill Lynch."
That makes sense. So far, no one wants an IB without govi support.
Wasn't Lehman one of those places that used to tell you what to do with your money?
You have 2 years to learn Mandari
666 Visitors Online
No spinco....
nooooo
nice one c&c roflmao
"Banks said to unveil plan to restore confidence" Of course more debt is just what they need.
Can anyone say insolvency?
The Merrill-BofA deal is moving closer but could still falter. A deal is expected at $26 per share or higher. Meanwhile, AIG is set to shift capital from its regulated insurance business to a holding company. Complete stories to follow.
wsj.com
breaking....
"It's a bailout again....Taking worthless paper into the fed reserve book is a bailout..."
Vladimir Bernanke and Hank Putin are betting that the American public can't figure that out. Unfortunately, there are only about 700 CR readers that know different.
the Jim Rodgers school of mandarin.
Credit-default swaps on AIG, the biggest U.S. insurer, soared on concern that it may be the next big financial firm to run short of capital after $587 billion in contracts guaranteeing home loans, corporate bonds and other investments plunged in value. Standard & Poor's and Moody's Investors Service have said AIG's credit ratings may be cut if its mortgage assets fall further or if potential capital needs aren't addressed. AIG may have to post more than $13 billion of collateral following a downgrade, it has said in regulatory filings.
Turnaround Plan
Credit-default swap sellers demanded 12.5 percentage points upfront and 5 percentage points a year to protect AIG bonds from default for five years, according to broker Phoenix Partners Group. That means it would cost $1.25 million initially and $500,000 a year to protect $10 million in AIG bonds for five years. Yesterday, it cost $688,000 a year with no upfront payment, according to CMA Datavision.
AIG's market value shrank by 46 percent this week on concern its credit ratings will be cut. Chief Executive Officer Robert Willumstad has promised to deliver a turnaround plan on Sept. 25 after the firm posted three straight quarterly losses totaling $18.5 billion. The plan may be announced sooner, a person familiar with the company said.
``As distressed as they are, raising new capital could be extremely hard,'' said Tim Backshall, chief strategist at Credit Derivatives Research LLC in Walnut Creek, California, today in an e-mail.
what time would asia open their market
I think the BOFA and Merrill deals are just smoke and mirrors. They wan't to make such a complex model that no one will be able to figure out what the business is worth.
You're looking at the guy who lost $600+ shorting LEH this month.
Don't feel too bad. I lost more shorting FNM. Should've had the conviction to keep the position on.
Sarah,
Don't worry about Russian businessmen. They are a bunch of whiney Kuloks.
This is the problem for a few days ago:
Investors are showing less fear after the Fed set up special lending facilities following the Bear Stearns bailout, giving securities firms the same access to its cash as commercial banks. The ability to tap the Fed for funds means financial troubles at one investment bank are unlikely to bring down others.
We've learned that no dealer's going to fail,'' said Julian Mann, a bond manager at First Pacific Advisors LLC in Los Angeles, which oversees $11 billion.The equity may be worthless, but the trades are honored.''
WSJ site is in crisis mode...
A smiling face just showed up,so it is time to toss some Bambi Burgers on the grill,and pour a glass of Pinot,whetstone's single vineyard "Bella Vigna".My neighbor makes some good stuff,Carpe Diem.
CR - Thanks for the great coverage today.
Man if I could cover my shorts right now I could seriously retire.
I guess I won't make it before our big rate cut or new socialist policy announcement.
Let no punch bowl go un-spiked.
Let no screw-up go unrewarded.
Let no public catastrophe go uncompensated with newfound political power.
S&P 500 future is down by 3%.
Will 10% circuit-breaker be triggered this week?
Old news, but related: JPMorgan Chase & Co. will stop selling interest-rate swaps to government borrowers in the $2.6 trillion U.S. municipal bond market roiled by an antitrust probe and the near bankruptcy of Alabama's most-populous county.
At least seven former JPMorgan bankers are under scrutiny in a Justice Department criminal investigation of whether banks conspired to overcharge local governments on swaps and other derivatives. The bank also is embroiled in negotiations over how to resolve a debt crisis with Jefferson County, Alabama, where the county's former adviser says a group of firms led by JPMorgan, the third-largest U.S. bank by assets, overcharged it by as much as $100 million for financing a new sewer system.
fond memories of Middle class America
Bye Bye !
Don't feel too bad. I lost more shorting FNM. Should've had the conviction to keep the position on.
Hey, I lost money shorting oil, Indymac, and Lehman.
How could a Cotton Trading firm hope to make it in the global economy...
the writing's been on tha wall for 145 years
Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Moody's Investors Service is about to tell as many as 29,000 U.S. state and local government borrowers that they have higher credit ratings. That doesn't mean taxpayers will enjoy lower borrowing costs anytime soon.
Next month Moody's will start changing how it assesses tax- exempt bonds, a move that will boost ratings by an average of one to two grades for cities and towns. Even with the expected increases, a tax-exempt borrower currently rated A is being charged an extra $6 million in annual interest to sell $1 billion of bonds, up from about $2 million a year ago, according to Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. data compiled by Bloomberg.
Moody's Loses Credibility; Muni Ranks Mean No Savings (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Late to the table:
Asia is on holiday
Is this really it ? Can I take it to the bank ? Oops I mean - open my NA beer now ?
-K
CR is proving that print media is dead.
Call it what you want, it's still a bailout when you "accept lower-quality assets in return for loans from the government." You might as well take Hummel figurines and Franklin Mint miniatures as collateral.
From tax and spend,
to borrow and spend,
to borrow, give and run.
That's great progress. You guys should spread that all over the world.
if not resolved in some way,,prior to markets opening,,its not going to matter anymore...
"Banks said to unveil plan to restore confidence" Of course more debt is just what they need.
Can anyone say insolvency?"
We'll dig our way out!
Americas inflated asset prices will continue to fall !!!
This is not a big deal. You want to see a big deal, check out my package.
CR, where the hell are you and how is that story going for Tanta?
"Global banks to unveil massive lending program to help restore confidence"
just like the Super SIV was supposed to do?
this could just be interpreted as a bad thing as opposed to a good thing.
CR rocks
and is Number 1 blog for accurate, unbiased analysis.
What about the Brinker finance man saying "Pull your $ from WAMU?" Isn't a bank run in the works? Combined with Merrill, Lehman, and the problems with damaged rigs in the Gulf? Plus another potential hurricane? Plus the Pakistan military getting all worked up about Bush allowing US Special forces to conduct ops in their country without prior approval. Plus Iran getting ready to light off their nuke reactor?
Deep breath
Ok, not a problem with the crack leadership team we have in the Whitehouse.
Ok, its Sunday. NFL. Is Bush sober?
Deep breath
silent scream
Americas inflated asset prices will continue to fall !!!
I don't like to think of it as falling so much as sobering up.
agree with others here, thanks CR
all other RSS feeds just became irrelevant
Late to table,
I think the major Asian markets are all on holiday tomorrow.
In case you forget: In 1984, Palin won the Miss Wasilla Pageant,[10][11] then finished third (second runner-up) in the Miss Alaska pageant,[12][13] at which she won a college scholarship and the "Miss Congeniality" award.[14] Palin admits to trying marijuana as a youth, during the time Alaska had decriminalized possession, though she says she did not enjoy it..
Yah right, how many pounds did it take for that conclusion?
Sarah Pali - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
chop yu dong - you have no clue how the federal government operates ina floating exchange fiat currency regime.
I can't figure out how people in Europe and China think they will go unscathed. These IBs are heavily exposed to oversees institutions. Say bye, bye to the afternoon nap.
Punditry, cotton has been an international trade since the 1700s. A great launching platform for global finance.
can one of the idiots using the word "bailout" in their post please explain what that means because, try as i might, i don't see BK and bailout having anything to do with each other. or do you just believe whatever anyone tells you? because i'd like to take the other side of all of your trades...
And remember tomorrow, while you are dipping your fingers in the blood coming from LEH's head after the blade falls, you need to look at who is up next at the scaffold. and play your cards accordingly. this is far from over....
The better thinkers have posited that the unwind, when it happens, will happen at a velocity not yet imagined. So goes the Austrian thinking.
They were right.
It is.
BofA's new lineup
Countrywide
Merril Lynch
Why let a NY bank take out the garbage? Let those hicks from down south do it.
Comrades Bush, Paulson and Bernanke I thought your ruse of the USSRA (United Socialist State Republic of America) was going so well...
NOT !
source: RGE Monitor : Nouriel Roubini Blog
I think it will be our great grand children who might dig us out.
Asian markets closed,,,,,what a break for the banks,,few more hours to stir the pot...
Bailout by the Fed:
They are still takin on paper of substandard quality which will provide the cash to the banks tomorrow when liquidity is gone.
australian swap rates down 20 bp at the oen. this is not good for anyone anywhere. a small treasury contingent liability could have saved lehman and what will be a worsening of the credit contraction that will hit the global economy. very very shortsighted of paulson and the treasury.
Ip,
LEH can file for bk protection and still dump a bunch of garbage on the taxpayer. Then they will come out of BK with a company void of debt. The CEO will make a couple hundred million and everyone will praise capitalism. The only problem is the debt will still be worthless paper carried by the gov't.
Asian markets should open in about 3 hours
mr mortgage (YouTube) was 100pc right about leh wamu and more .. I hope he made a pile for himself.
You forgot the rebels in Nigeria are on a terror.
GH,
Oct 5p's .. a fair Boatload
on MER.
"Merrill was believed to be asking for a price that would value the firm at well above $40 billion."
Are you kidding me?
Bank of America to Buy Merrill - WSJ.com
and did anyone really think that there was any reason to save LEH when you can pick up a better deal in BK? And just you wait until the sector processes what LEH's mortgage holdings are worth. There will be a lot more confessional time in the months ahead.
meanwhile, just to prove that no one needed these assclowns anyhow, the rest of the world will keep on spinning as the shadow banking system collapses. and if you're the fed, is that such a bad thing? think about it...seems there is no honor amoung those thieves is there? they wouldn't even pony up to save their own business models...
ipodius --
You need to read the article.
And the Federal Reserve has agreed to accept lower-quality assets in return for loans from the government.
If the central bank is exposing itself to credit risk, then it is a bail-out. If not, then I agree with you. We lack the information to decide.
Best case, the Fed will just keep the juices flowing while everything unwinds. Worst case, they get stuck with garbage on their balance sheet. Again, we lack the information at this point to know.
Arent Asian markets closed tomorrow? (today?)
"The average age of the world's greatest civilization has been two hundred years. These nations have progressed through this sequence. From bondage to spiritual faith; from spiritual faith to great courage; from courage to liberty; from liberty to abundance, from abundance to complacency; from complacency to apathy, from apathy to dependence, from dependence back into bondage."
Alexander Tyler circa 1787 re the
fall of the Athenian Republic.
LEH can file for bk protection and still dump a bunch of garbage on the taxpayer.
LEH and BS are only needed on wall street, for the fees and bonuses.
my comment was meant to say, please tell me how, because i can't see any whay dumping anything on "the taxpayer" is possible here. so please enlighten us
Anonymous writes:
You forgot the rebels in Nigeria are on a terror.
Pay no attention to the distraction. The magician is performing, the assistant is a sex object. Or militants in Niger.
OLd newsclip (2 hrs is a long time these days)
Lehman Brothers Moves Towards Insolvency
YouTube - Lehman Brothers Moves Towards Insolvency
Alexander Tyler
Hoax.
utter horseshit
So is Fuld a vindictive guy?
Because if I wanted to be a jerk, I wouldn't file BK until, say, 12:15am. Or 8:30am, if I were a world-class dick.
from dependence back into bondage
Me and my rowdy friends say, 'Come and get me.
George Bush Says :
Nothing to see here, move along, move along ...
last i checked Nemo, these were being taken at a discount, and the lower quality ones at a much steeper discount. furthermore, those get paid off at par in a BK in the first round. so how is this dumpage?
Guess who back stops the FED, the US Treasury. Guess who back stops the US Treasury, the taxpayer.
Well for all those traders that bought LEH at what they thought was the bottom friday,,,,,OH-MY...
This guy creeps me out and needs to find a new t-shirt, but...
Lehman, Bank America, Merrill and Idiot Nation
YouTube - Lehman, Bank America, Merrill and Idiot Nation
crispy&cole writes:
Does this mean "spinco" is dead? LMFAO!!
Damnit! I was having an afternoon coffee! My nose...
Now to get an idea of how many other banks will go with LEH (or AIG or...)
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Palin smoked out as a youth?
Funny how the prohibitionists seem to think that marijuana is OK if you do it as a child, but not as an adult.
Don't be like Sarah Palin kids. Stay away from pot till you're 21.
I have some connections at Lehman. I was told I was "a lock" for an internship there next summer. They currently aren't answering the phone. Will this affect their intern program?
Ip,
Loan guarantees backed by worthless "assets" for starters. But I'm sure Benny and the boys will create something really exciting like TAF for IB's.
This might be simplistic, but I don't see how today's trading session should be tolerated by a Bankruptcy court.
Lehman has assets and obligations to numerous parties not in the trading session. In an unscheduled session, only a small group of counterparties are allowed to swap assets and obligations involving Lehman.
This, naturally, reduces the assets of Lehman available to parties not privy to today's trading. Did the parties privy to today's trading get full credit for the Lehman obligations they released in the trades?
Even if not "full credit", who decided what was exchangeable?
I hope parties not invited to today's session file an emergency request with the bankruptcy court to nullify today's trading.
This seems almost certain to be a fleecing of all other Lehman creditors, and Lehman assets should be distributed only by or at the authority of a BK trustee.
and ella your point is what? what is your point please? the pointless posts around here are really getting out of control. did you all escape from yahoo finance or mish's blog or housing bubble blog?
You can file in Bankruptcy court via the net. They want it done ASAP to get their Stay.
Ben Bernanke Says :
Nothing to see here, move along now, move along ...
UPDATE:
I didn't make peanut butter cookies last night, I went for Brownies
ipod: if the treasury has to take them then it is because nobody else will. Hint: what does that tell you about the price they are offering, and the open market price?
"We have, in this country, one of the most corrupt institutions the world has ever known. I refer to the Federal Reserve Board. This evil institution has impoverished the people of the United States and has practically bankrupted our government. It has done this through the corrupt practices of the moneyed vultures who control it". -- Congressman Louis T. McFadde
Aussies open in an hour?
Dr. Roubini will be on Bloomberg in 10 minutes. talking about LEN
Leh parent is C11, broker dealer is C7, and it looks as if it's trying to ring fence and let the other "solvent" subsidiaries operate. In the olden days a "parent" holding company was not allowed because it allowed asset shifting, tax evasion, etc; but that was long ago in a far away place before Greenspan.
The point is a clear response to "How will the taxpayer be liable"
UPDATE: I am baking ganja carrot cake right this moment. The house smells good.
Bailout by the Fed:
They are still takin on paper of substandard quality which will provide the cash to the banks tomorrow when liquidity is gone.
Hopefully people don't get around to asking who's going to bailout the Fed and the US government if their balance sheet begins to collapse under the weight of all this garbage.
If people begin to think that maybe a bailout just moves the problem from one balance sheet to another, instead of solving it, then things could get real ugly, real fast.
I think the oil market will be interesting this week.
SPR and such says oil down.
spot shortages at pumps and the likely dollar drop would say oil way up.
I think there may be some blood in the streets on the oil markets.
@Dr. Roubini will be on Bloomberg in 10 minutes. talking about LEN
Let's hope he's been drinking. I want a rant like the one from the other day.
I am baking ganja carrot cake right this moment. The house smells good.
so now we know what Schadenfraude smells like. Works for me. Send a slice to the Lehman trading desk.
Roubini on Bloomberg Asia in a moment! Live.
Aussie market will do nothing more than follow the dow futures.
Guess those 5$ puts on LEH are not looking to good right now..
ipodius --
Yes, the Fed accepts a wide variety of collateral at the discount window, and also (I believe) the PDCF and TSLF.
But the article says the Fed has agreed "to accept lower-quality assets", which sounds like something new. I would hope you are right, but as I said, we lack the information to be sure. How far would the Fed go to prevent Lehman's collapse from contaminating the entire system, do you think?
Whether this turns out to be a bail-out depends largely on what happens in the next few days.
I think today is the heaviest day for HaloScan.
BAC owns CFC,MBNA and soon MER?
what could go wrong.
ella, this doesn't involve the taxpayer. i have no idea what anyone is smoking, but the knowledge level here seems to have hit a new low.
and a BK here is probably the only option to stop disorder. the bad news is the equity holders are wiped out utterly, and the bond holders are also going to take it in the shorts. actually, i think this is a good thing. here is what happens when you forget about what the word "risk" means.
and the only thing the taxpayer should be worried about is the influx of all those people working for the financial sector into the Social Security roles because a lot of people's retirement just went up in smoke. And there is a lot more coming too. Wait until these trades unwind and make the weak even weaker. Watch MER next.
LEH,,bond holders will want out right away monday
Another shotgun wedding arranged by Hank and Ben...BofA and ML.
Congrats to the newlyweds!
Who's going to pay for the dowery?
I missed this yesterday:
Fannie, Freddie to Be Kept Off Federal Budget
Fannie, Freddie to Be Kept Off Federal Budget - washingtonpost.com
The White House budget office said yesterday that it has decided not to incorporate mortgage-finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into the federal budget, citing the temporary nature of the Treasury Department's takeover and "the level of federal ownership" of the firms.
The decision affects the way public expenditures on the two companies will be reflected in official budget projections. Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. has pledged to invest as much as $200 billion to keep the firms solvent.
On Tuesday, two days after the takeover, officials at the Congressional Budget Office announced that the deal had bound the government so tightly to the firms that their business operations, assets and liabilities should be included in the government's balance sheets
But the article says the Fed has agreed "to accept lower-quality assets", which sounds like something new.
How come people don't complain about this like they would if the federal government decided to use their backyard as a dumping ground for radioactive waste so it doesn't make the people on Wall Street sick?
It amounts to pretty much the same thing.
if Only i could buy some long dated puts on upmarket nyc condo prices. Or corcoran fees. 25000 bankers cannot get absorbed by a job market that already coped with bear and now mer/bofa ..
Nouriel's bring the 'bini on BloombergTV momentarily....
This is another rear-guard action. Usually the rear-guard is holding off to get the troops to a point at which they can extricate themselves. With all the stuff happening, how will that happen? Oh yeah, open the liquidity tap and keep something in the bucket despite the hole.
And yes, it is a bail since the taxpayer is on the hook for the crap.
And I believe that Bernanke already set up a window for the IBs after BSC. PDFC? PFCD? Whatever, it already exists.
The Gods of the Copybook Headings
AS I PASS through my incarnations in every age and race,
I make my proper prostrations to the Gods of the Market Place.
Peering through reverent fingers I watch them flourish and fall,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings, I notice, outlast them all.
We were living in trees when they met us. They showed us each in turn
That Water would certainly wet us, as Fire would certainly burn:
But we found them lacking in Uplift, Vision and Breadth of Mind,
So we left them to teach the Gorillas while we followed the March of Mankind.
We moved as the Spirit listed. They never altered their pace,
Being neither cloud nor wind-borne like the Gods of the Market Place,
But they always caught up with our progress, and presently word would come
That a tribe had been wiped off its icefield, or the lights had gone out in Rome.
With the Hopes that our World is built on they were utterly out of touch,
They denied that the Moon was Stilton; they denied she was even Dutch;
They denied that Wishes were Horses; they denied that a Pig had Wings;
So we worshipped the Gods of the Market Who promised these beautiful things.
When the Cambrian measures were forming, They promised perpetual peace.
They swore, if we gave them our weapons, that the wars of the tribes would cease.
But when we disarmed They sold us and delivered us bound to our foe,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "Stick to the Devil you know."
On the first Feminian Sandstones we were promised the Fuller Life
(Which started by loving our neighbour and ended by loving his wife)
Till our women had no more children and the men lost reason and faith,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "The Wages of Sin is Death."
In the Carboniferous Epoch we were promised abundance for all,
By robbing selected Peter to pay for collective Paul;
But, though we had plenty of money, there was nothing our money could buy,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "If you don't work you die."
Then the Gods of the Market tumbled, and their smooth-tongued wizards withdrew
And the hearts of the meanest were humbled and began to believe it was true
That All is not Gold that Glitters, and Two and Two make Four
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings limped up to explain it once more.
As it will be in the future, it was at the birth of Man
There are only four things certain since Social Progress began.
That the Dog returns to his Vomit and the Sow returns to her Mire,
And the burnt Fool's bandaged finger goes wabbling back to the Fire;
And that after this is accomplished, and the brave new world begins
When all men are paid for existing and no man must pay for his sins,
As surely as Water will wet us, as surely as Fire will bum,
The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return.
Once again dear friends, into the breech!!!
Listen carefully, if it goes bad then it will involve the taxpayer. End of story
Nymex gold jumped $1.50 in last 15 min to up $18.20
749...tell all your friends...we can get to 1000
crispy&cole - Fear not. Spinco shall rise again.
Does anyone have a web link for bloomberg asia live?
I guess, Nemo, that I just object to the "blah blah blah taxpayer blah blah blah" lines without any knowledge. And i have no problem with accepting anything as collateral at the window, even some of the executives hand-made italian suits, so long as they are properly discounted. that's the way it should be.
and that's not even the most interesting thing about all of this anyhow. the interesting bits are, what is the franchise worth, what happens to the counter-parties, what about the bond holders, and the most philosophical question...is the business model dead? And if it is, that means it's dead around the world.
Breaking news on FOX, employees are carrying out boxes of personal items from Lehman's
c&c,
Even if we get 1000 then that still leaves approximately 299,999,000 clueless. Sigh.
Bill "chicken" gross (protagonist of wall street welfare) chimed in on CNBC Asia that Lehman Liquidation will cause tsunami in swaps & some such instruments...
HB: That broke on CR about 2 hours ago.
Watch Bloomberg TV US Live Online | Free Online Bloomberg TV US Tv Channel
Bloomberg live link
LEH started as a dry goods store that accepted cotton for payment for merchandise.
"And the Federal Reserve has agreed to accept lower-quality assets in return for loans from the government." Loans from the government are the same as loans from the taxpayer.
I take it treasuries and the USD are doing poorly this evening? This is very unusual - surely they'll turn it around tomorrow. They always do.
This is the first time since 1987 I can recall gold up, dollar down, in response to financial chaos. Anyone have any other counterexamples?
Roubini is on Bloomberg now, LIVE.
Roubini on!
The White House budget office said yesterday that it has decided not to incorporate mortgage-finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into the federal budget...
In other news a multi-national concil has announced that term "Planet Earth" will no longer be used in official communications.
From now on it will be called "World of Lies".
WSJ: Merril voting now for $29 deal
And yes, it is a bail since the taxpayer is on the hook for the crap.
again, because no one has answered the question here, exactly how homedad is the taxpayer involed in an LEH BK filing? I really want to know becuase, you know for the life of all my experience and education, I can't figure out how. Perhaps I should have just skipped grad school and just read the blog posts here...
I know very little about the financial sector, and you all seem to know a lot, so I hope you don't mind if I ask what I am sure will seem like a stupid question.
My retired aunt has most of her holdings with Merrill. Since she is retired, I assume much of her holdings are in bonds. What happens to those if Merrill goes bankrupt? I assume she loses whatever cash she has with them, but what about the rest of her portfolio,
Any help would be much appreciated. Thx
The problem with saying "taxpayer" is that it seems to imply that government revenue per se is going to be spent "making the bankruptcy happen."
Is it better to say that, in order to expedite the bankruptcy, the Treasury has agreed to transfer some risk -- and most likely, liability -- onto the public?
"the influx of all those people working for the financial sector into the Social Security roles"
The Rock had a line about that one...
"I guess, Nemo, that I just object to the "blah blah blah taxpayer blah blah blah" lines without any knowledge. And i have no problem with accepting anything as collateral at the window, even some of the executives hand-made italian suits, so long as they are properly discounted. that's the way it should be."
The FED accepted MBS as collateral with a haircut. The government by backstopping FNM/FRE made MBS whole.
In other words the FED (a private institution) made money via .gov (the US taxpayers).
You might not have a problem with this arrangement but I surely do.
Then again you've been arguing all along, screw the moral hazard issue, we need to save the system.
Bloomberg News
He is on now
"And if it is, that means it's dead around the world."
If by world you mean the USA and UK...yes.
crispy&cole --
749...tell all your friends...we can get to 1000
You mean the price of gold?
well so it is official my hanes lehman tshirt celebrating going public, the one with the stock certificate printed on it, outlasted the firm.
LOL
"The Gods of the Copybook Headings"
Rudyard Kipling. It gives one a shiver.
But his son went to die in the First World War, and he was devastated. But he kept on believing in it and promoting it.
If the MER deal desn't go through, Paulson will have to work next sunday as well.
Roubini on bloomberg on sunday....
...right now.
This comes from over at Naked Capitalism.
naked capitalism
Note we predicted that the authorities would lower collateral standards as a finesse for Lehman. This is a back-door bailout. Dow futures opened down 300 and S&P futures down 37, which would seem subdued ex the stealth provision of central bank support.
Update 6:55 PM Reader Jim Bianco e-mailed this observation on the futures trading:
Its all about Merrill. They need to announce a deal with BAC before the open. If they do not, they plunge to $10 to $12 (from $17) on tomorrows open and no way does BAC pay $25 to $30. Then Merrill is at risk of blowing up and a crash becomes very possible.
Perhaps I should have just skipped grad school...
THAT explains a lot.
If you are less than 40 yrs of age and not financially well off then you are basically screwed....
25+ yrs of industrial production decline and increasingly financial engineered driven bullshit for the US economy ( especially last 8 yrs under Bush ) with massive market bubbles has created systemic damage.
And if you vote for McSame you are ignorant or a glutton for more punishment.
Ken Lewis is a genius.
Ken Lewis is a genius. I say again.
Vomit.
I'm going to pledge by '83 dodge as collateral (750k miles) tomorrow to get a loan so I can loan it to my father who needs to pay off a few of his credit card bills.
Roubini is on now. Follow the link posted above
...and Roubini walks in like Ron Jeremy into a locker room
Then again you've been arguing all along, screw the moral hazard issue, we need to save the system.
Are we saving the system by institutionalizing dishonesty and criminal behavior?
I've never understood how turning the economy into a giant crime ring equates to "saving the system".
Seems to me we're just selling our soul to the Devil, so to speak, for a second chance.
But what kind of second chance will that be?
merril-boa merger announcement on 8-9 PM!!!
How much is Lewis going to pay above friday's close? Is it really going to be $29?
I wonder if he'll bid $500 for my old Atari 2600 along with Pac Man, Zaxxon&Donkey Kong cartridges.
Nouriel! Nouriel! Nouriel!
PPT is on the job; S&P futures were down 40, now down only 37.
Tomorrow, they blow their wad. Wonder if it will be enough.
F'ing bloomberg sound does not work in linux. Can someone please post the juicier bits. Especially any bits about USSA or comrade paulson.
bill miller thanking his lucky stars he only added 10 million shares of LEH on Friday
MER BOA desperate attempt to shore up market confidence. BOA will be dead in a year if this goes through.
USA, RIP.
MS and GS next to m&a
"No way they can survive"
-- Nouriel Roubini
"Are we saving the system by institutionalizing dishonesty and criminal behavior?"
Newsflash: that's exactly what FRNs have been for 35 years - a crystallization of the above. The period from 1981-2000 was the freakish anomaly, the time before and since was the normal reaction to having this as our ballast.
"Its all about Merrill. They need to announce a deal with BAC before the open. If they do not, they plunge to $10 to $12 (from $17) on tomorrows open and no way does BAC pay $25 to $30. Then Merrill is at risk of blowing up and a crash becomes very possible."
So why not just let it fall then pick it up for $15 per share?
Roubini on Bloomberg - "You had reckless lenders and reckless (borrowers?)...you need punishment, at this point"
Bloomberg Talk Head: "Have a nice weekend....if that's possible"
"No way they can survive"
Wow!
"And i have no problem with accepting anything as collateral at the window, even some of the executives hand-made italian suits, so long as they are properly discounted."
So this collateral is presumed to have some intrinsic worth above zero? The suits can be cleaned, pressed and rented out?
Not looking for an argument, asking a question.
If you missed Roubini on Bloomberg minutes ago be grateful. Depressing.
WSJ: Merril voting now for $29 deal
WTF?
Help a poor stupid guy out.
Why does BoA buy Merrill for $29 today, when they can buy it for $5 next week?
I'll be surprised if the MER deal goes through at that price ultimately...or if it goes through at all.
And remember I keep telling you, while you're so busy freaking out over this, you should be paying attention to AIG, which is far more interesting and has much more damage potential.
Damm, no Lehmen office in my town!
Wanted to try out my "The End is Nigh" sandwich board.
Roubini said all of the investment banks will fail.
"Seems to me we're just selling our soul to the Devil, so to speak, for a second chance."
When Bush decided it was fine to inflict the same torture on our captives that the NVA inflicted on John McCain, the Devil made the buy then. All this stuff now is just arranging the financing of the sale.
Sorry Shaq, you're faster. But then, that's why you score the baskets...
km4 is correct, under 40 folks are f$cked, but we have our health....good luck to the boomers who need health care in the future....I will do my best to make sure I vote seniors to eat cat food for what they have done to this country.
The news is BOA is being FORCED by the Govt to buy Merril
Dr Doom did not dissapoint!
Ah, your taxpayer dollars at work: S&P 500 futures only down 32, now.
Folks are calming down, now. All will be okay.
May you die a horrible death, PPT.
JP writes:
WSJ: Merril voting now for $29 deal
WTF?
Help a poor stupid guy out.
Why does BoA buy Merrill for $29 today, when they can buy it for $5 next week?
Probably because they don't want the value of the assets to fall any further.
Hmmm...i will see what I can find out about MER/BOA counter-party crap and other entanglements. perhaps BOA is just covering its ass here, much the same Jamie did on the BSC deal by taking it all in-house. Perhaps it's the only thing to do. But they are going to be severely hurting from this and the CW deal...
Fannie, Freddie to Be Kept Off Federal Budget
Sarah Smokes Dope
Nothing of any import makes the Fed Budget anymore. Wars? nope Financial Implosions? nope It's all free money made with Bernanke's "secret weapon"...the printing press. Now the fact that future generations have to pay for this? Not on my watch says Bushco.
AP - Fed may be more generous in lending program, pool would be worth $50bl
Pavel,
The Gods of the copybook headings are what killed that boy, sure as the sun rises.
He knew that, and yet waived goodbye.
NOw comes the ultimate short squeeze as Lehman brokerage accounts have to be wound up.
Everything heavily short by them is going straight up tomorrow as they hit the bid.
SIPC liquidation.
frack- this is gonna be totally wild.
I guess I should put some limit orders in on some of the calls I own.
they just might get filled for some very big coin as this gyrates.
Someday this war's gonna end...
How could MER possibly command a $29 price? They're currently at $18, without news they tank tomorrow. And BAC is foolish enough to pull the trigger early with a premium over current price? Nobody is that stupid unless they're gambling with gov't funds
BAC should blow up with that retarded Countrywide scam, which just a pea and shell game!
at this point,,i dont think the gov. will allow AIG to be downgraded knowing full well that a 46 billion cash call would make everything that happened today look like playtime...
This is the WSJ link mentioning $29/share for MER:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122142278543033525.html?mod=special_coverage
Probably because they don't want the value of the assets to fall any further.
Why? If BoA is an acquirer, they want MER cheap, not expensive.
Hell, they'd like to buy it out of bankruptcy if they could.
You guys worry too much. Check out this website:
Not Found
It clearly says that they are growing worldwide.
Note that the BIG Dow Futures CR links to tend to be a bit less liquid in electronic because of their size (look the the ETS volume). In contrast, the prices from the regular DOW Futures at
Sorry. Page not found.
or the Dow e-Minis (no pit trading, electronic only, with smaller notional futures contract size)
E-mini Dow ($5)
may be more instructive given their higher volume.
ipodious, would you please stop being so sanctimonious and patronizing. we are well aware aig is the bigger deal. the nice posts from nemo several days ago illustrated that in stark numbers.
Wall street is one whole Level 3 unobservable casino with zero credibility and zero cash!
May you live in interesting times...
PS. I'm well capitalized. I promise.
Andy in nz
Laughed so hard I lit the filter end of a cigarette. Haven't done that in years!
Matt, good point. I'll add the minis ...
Best to all.
Chris,
That was a good one, subtle, but funny! Welcome!
Banks to create pool to lend to troubled firms
If those futures stick, Monday will be a trend day - down 5% at least from Friday's close to Monday's low. SPX 1190 minimal target. If those futures hold
"Why? If BoA is an acquirer, they want MER cheap, not expensive."
That's funny. Does anyone really think the game is about acquiring assets at an "undervalued" price instead of just forestalling general financial meltdown?
Oh for pity sake, Matt is CR, and I'm Tanta now, WTF?
"And the Federal Reserve has agreed to accept lower-quality assets in return for loans from the government."
I view this as DIP financing of sorts.
ipodius writes:
Hmmm...i will see what I can find out about MER/BOA counter-party crap and other entanglements.
That at least holds water, but I can't understand why they wouldn't wait until end-of-week and do the deal cheap.
Even if the deal were all stock, BAC is going to do relatively well compared to MER.
Like I said, I'm just stupid on this issue. I expect them to buy low, and can't figure out why they want to buy high (with apologies to CSC).
Also here's a helpful graph of the S&P minis.
"Greenspan, 82, retired from the Fed in January 2006 after serving for 18 years as chairman"...you forgot the rest: "and leaving a stinking mess behind that he didn't bother to clean up leaving that to others"........
Banks to create pool to lend to troubled firms
$50B? Bah. AIG will eat that in one swallow.
I happen to have all nine of my teenage grandchildren visiting this afternoon. I went over with them what is happeing and tried to explain that their future just got real challenging. They can't believe the government is not able to save them. I have failed. They still believe, for now.
720 visitors is very bullish for next week.
As David Pearson said a couple of days ago, people have had 6 months to get their house in order regarding LEH exposure.
We are going to see what happens when an investment bank goes down. Sort of like the European supercollider.
The thing is, LEH could have sold some of their profitable pieces if they had been willing to take a painful haircut. Now they get the guillotine.
So we head down 400 points in the morning? SO what? The market has been overvalued for years and the earnings yield are bullshit. Reality is good and America should not depend on synthetic bullshit to pump growth bubbles. The Dow should reset at 7500, so relax and be patient, that is unless it's God's Plan to stuff that reatrd Palin into office and screw this up even more! Don't get me wrong, I think Obama is very limited and will not solve much of anything, but at least change will be attempted (I hope).
Would you look at those futures rocket up. LOL!
"And the Federal Reserve has agreed to accept lower-quality assets in return for loans from the government."
If so then this is indeed just another taxpayer bailout and an open door for financial firms to dump garbage onto the publics balance sheet and take even more of exactly the sort of risks that got us where we are now.
Paying good money for trash is no different than simply giving that money away.
Banks to create pool to lend to troubled firms
LEH had access to the Fed alphabet soup--didn't seem to have helped.
A 30 billion sweetener given to JPM to gobble up BS was not considered tax-payer financed bailout by someone here. How can tax-payers' funds being used to mop up "lower quality" assets, assets that no one wants, be considered a bail out? No way.
I still think WaMu may end up being the biggest story of all.
What are the odds of the Fed doing an emergency 8:30AM rate cut tomorrow?
We are there. We are witnessing the beginning of a new era.
Just as the Rissian invasion of Georgia has ushered in a new era of great power politics (or the end of the post Cold-War period) the failure of Lehman marks the end of the "Greenspan Put".
The Put dates back IMO to about 1997, when we used low interest rates and liquidity to manage the Asian currency meltdown. Since then there have been numerous interventions and bailouts.
Now the Fed/Treasury's "hand" has been exposed. No more bailouts for eveyone. The implicit assumptions of assistance will change.
There is some good news in this. It's "the beginning of the bottoming process". The bottoming may take a few years, but the real economy, and real evaluations of value and risk, are going to be returning.
anonymouse
that the fib on the SPX, btw
we are well aware aig is the bigger deal
and the tone of that post was what, squeezed? if you don't like what i say, don't read my posts. trust me, i won't lose any sleep over the thought.
so now that the rumor is 29 for MER, we have to back into the number somehow by figuring out what BOA's current exposure is to anything MER has, and that's part of the price. i can't imagine that anyone is thrilled, though, at what LEH's book will go for at auction. but everyone must have calculated that whatever the mark is, picking up LEH assets out of BK will make enough money to offset some of the pain here.
And AIG is now dumping assets too. But the Fed doesn't have authority over an insurance entity...this is very interesting.
all right,,time to get some rest, gonna need it for mondays action,
plus i better do a little bonding with the missus.
ADIOS
They can't believe the government is not able to save them. I have failed.
Nonsense.
There are things that all of our grandparents told us which took years to sink in. Some of it took so damn long in my case that sadly they were around to thank anymore. But I expect it was the same with their grandparents too.
What are the odds of the Fed doing an emergency 8:30AM rate cut tomorrow?
less than zero. this was the line in the sand, and ammo needs to be saved for a couple of big banks that will go down too.
and i agree this is historic. you are watching the end of the shadow banking system as it was known, and the end of modern finance as it became in the last quarter century. but something will come out of it.
Republicans are Traitors writes:
CR is proving that print media is dead.
Republicans are Traitors | 09.14.08 - 6:55 pm
An interesting statement considering most of CR's blog entries are based on print media's web presence.
Thanks JP. At least I gave them a heads up.
ac --
If so then this is indeed just another taxpayer bailout
Not necessarily. If the assets are subject to a sufficient "haircut", and the Fed is sufficiently close to the head of the line in liquidation, then this could just be a means to slow down the "fire sale" of Lehman's (CRE?) assets.
Give the Fed and Treasury at least a little credit here; they are clearly allowing the firm to fail. They still have an interest (and a mandate) to try to stave off a systemic meltdown.
I think ipodius is overstating his case, but I also think the "this is a bail-out!!!" crowd are overstating theirs. I cannot say I have any particular problem with any of the Fed's and Treasury's actions this weekend, at least from what we have heard thus far.
The will Fed meet on Tuesday. They can cut then.
i don't think aig will sell anything this week unless they are forced to. and if that happens...
ipodius:
Perhaps my use of the term "taxpayer" was a bit incorrect. Maria Slartibartfast (Love that name) said it better.
"Is it better to say that, in order to expedite the bankruptcy, the Treasury has agreed to transfer some risk -- and most likely, liability -- onto the public?"
Regardless of the exact verbiage, the public trough is again open for the trash. At some point, we pay.
ipodius:
Perhaps my use of the term "taxpayer" was a bit incorrect. Maria Slartibartfast (Love that name) said it better.
"Is it better to say that, in order to expedite the bankruptcy, the Treasury has agreed to transfer some risk -- and most likely, liability -- onto the public?"
Regardless of the exact verbiage, the public trough is again open for the trash. At some point, we pay.
"There is some good news in this. It's "the beginning of the bottoming process". The bottoming may take a few years, but the real economy, and real evaluations of value and risk, are going to be returning."
Mozo Maz
Agreed - I think this is one of the most positive events since the creit ubble started deflating. Whether because Hank found his manhood, or just reluctantly admitted there was a limit to what he could, I think it marks a turning point.
Actually this mess goes back to LBJ and guns and butter. Esentially off balance sheet items and unfunded future liabilities. It just got progressively out of hand.
It takes a long time to find a tipping point. Greenspan was certainly responsable for using an accelerent but he had a lot of help.
Camel's nose was under the tent way back then.
This too shall pass. It won't be pretty but discipline will be restored.
Dr. (bend the spoon) Roubini is quite perceptive. I love the guy!
BTW I hope this underscores how any notion that we have free markets in this economy is absolutely absurd.
If we really had free markets we would have dealt with these problems back in 1998.
Instead the government steps in and intervenes like clockwork anytime the market tries to correct its own excesses.
A free market is a market that is free to correct and re-balance itself.
We have no such thing is this country and we have had no such thing in this country for at least a decade now.
The U.S. dollar slid against the yen and euro in Asian trade on Monday as talks to rescue Lehman Brothers Holdings (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) faltered, fuelling concerns over the stability of the U.S. financial system and sparking talk of a possible rate cut there.
Not necessarily. If the assets are subject to a sufficient "haircut", and the Fed is sufficiently close to the head of the line in liquidation, then this could just be a means to slow down the "fire sale" of Lehman's (CRE?) assets.
Give the Fed and Treasury at least a little credit here; they are clearly allowing the firm to fail. They still have an interest (and a mandate) to try to stave off a systemic meltdown.
I think ipodius is overstating his case, but I also think the "this is a bail-out!!!" crowd are overstating theirs. I cannot say I have any particular problem with any of the Fed's and Treasury's actions this weekend, at least from what we have heard thus far.
I'm just commenting more generally, Nemo.
I don't know any of the specifics of what's going on here.
I'm just trying to point out that intentionally paying too much for something is just another method of giving away money.
The White House declined on Sunday to comment on the latest developments involving Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), but said U.S. President George W. Bush in general keeps in close touch with key officials on pressing financial matters.
"The president and his staff stay in close and frequent contact with Treasury Secretary (Henry) Paulson and other senior economic officials on all pressing financial market issues," said White House spokesman Tony Fratto.
Concur, AIG is huge. But it all beginning to feel like death by a thousand cuts.
Some of the cuts are deeper then others.
from WSJ:
"AIG plans to disclose a comprehensive restructuring that is likely to include the disposal of major assets"
Shorter AIG: FED is now toxic financial landfill.
Calling Jas Jain...
i need to hear the soothing born and bred line...
Wasn't WB in the dead zone, too?
They can't believe the government is not able to save them.
An attitude by no means limited to grandchildren.
My own epiphany on this point came back during the S&L meltdown. Some reporter was doing on-the-street interviews about the mess, asking passersby what should be done about it. One person's response: "why should the taxpayers bail out the S&Ls--why can't the government do it?"
Bingo.
AIG will be interesting.
Most of their insurance is in regulated legal entities with dedicated capital. Most of the insurance will not be a problem.
Virtually all their problems are in their relatively small but lethal capital markets business.
They should be able to sell something this weekend and we will see what it looks like tomorrow.
I suppose the worry is whoever is on the other side of their credit default swaps.
We can talk about AIG all we want, and what's Paulson going to do about it.
But this firm is not a Commercial Bank, S&L or IB. It is an insurance company and as such, there's no venue for the Federal Government to do anything.
It is the purview of the Department of Insurance (or whatever the hell they call it) for whichever state is the state of residence for the parent corporation.
God help us if it's Mississippi.
Trucks will be arriving all night in order to stock up for our big Monday Sale of Wall Street Size Depends and pints of Val-U-Rite Vodka. We were going to call it the SPINCO sale, but that just didn't work out. You know, like selling AAA rated toxic MBS.
well, all the boys got put in one room but they all decided that to pony money up was less attractive then to let the chips fall. which means that the people with the cash want to pick over good assets and let firms go BK. that's what should happen.
LEH made bad investment decisions. it now bears the responsibility and the government has stepped aside and told wall street to deal with its own. trust me, there will be A LOT of money made from these failures. none of this stuff is worth zero.
Futures are rather well-behaved, considering. People may be afraid the Fed may have one more rabbit left in the hat, I assume.
Street could surprise tomorrow with a relief rally similar to last week. I doubt it will hold.
Don't get me wrong, I think Obama is very limited and will not solve much of anything, but at least change will be attempted (I hope).
Change will most certainly be attested.
squeezed writes:
i don't think aig will sell anything this week unless they are forced to. and if that happens...
WHEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!
According with Wikipedia AIG is in NY.
I suppose the worry is whoever is on the other side of their credit default swaps.
Ziggurat, indeed that is the worry. and outside of the federal power stucture to facilitate a solution for. someone is going to lose a ton of money here...and watch the hedge funds. a lot of wealth will be evaporated by next week. a lot.
homedad....
AIG is a holding company. The insurance companies are mostly stand alone entities with dedicated capital and will remain solvent.
They also have banking like subs, like their toxic capital markets unit.
That part of AIG is no different then an investment bank.
I still think WaMu may end up being the biggest story of all.
Nemo
I agree, because much as we've been watching all these convolutions for hours, Average Annie and Andy could care less. They will here that on the news and go "Oh, that's those people on Wall Street. But Grandma standing in line outside her bank or 6 of the 18 nurses on our floor that I work with calling in sick so they can get in line? Multiple that by the number of branches across the country? THAT will get Annie and Andy's attention.
State of incorporation for AIG is Delaware, mailing address is NY.
What this means, I leave to you fine folk.
may be more instructive given their higher volume.
Matt
good catch - I was 'bout to post but you beat me too it (outside BBQing!)
sayez to me a blip but nothing to remarkable
wait 'till average passive investor wakes up and goes to work and checks the markets that will be the true test - will fear rule or calmer heads
i don't think aig will sell anything this week unless they are forced to. and if that happens...
really? one aircraft leasing business is posted on ebay...it could be yours
I Like Ike, I think we should all be thankful for the excellent work at the NY Times, WSJ, Bloomberg and other media sites. They've done an excellent job.
Best to all.
the fed and its backer the treasury have a near unlimited supply of rabbits.
No doubt about WAMU is huge.
Just in "Fed expected to say it will be more generous with emergency lending program"
. . .you are watching the end of the shadow banking system as it was known, and the end of modern finance as it became in the last quarter century. . .
And the end of Manhattan real estate.
homedad43 writes:
We can talk about AIG all we want, and what's Paulson going to do about it.
Copy that! This is the pig in the room.
This is the one that makes me nervous - esp. from a wider public pov