NY Fed: Manufacturing Activity Weakened in September
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Mon, 09/15/2008 - 4:38am (206 comments)
in
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Recent Recommendations
"My parents are with AIG!"
"Your parents will be the first to be shot."
First!! This is the underlying weakness that has to be addressed. The consumers have no money.
2nd. And 3rd.
Will we have a financial system by thetime I get to Miami in 4 hours?
425 online at 8:48 EST what a mess.
Will we have a financial system by thetime I get to Miami in 4 hours?
lawyerliz |
Yes, but it only takes monopoly money.
We still manufacture things?
(Repost from prev thread)
13-week T-Bill yielding 0.75%
Heavens to Murgatroyd
The kid from the AIG commerical has run away from home...he is heading to Omaha
Whoocoodanode that manufacturing activity would be weak?
OK CNBC is running a "Breakig News" banner.
Pres. Bush to address financial markets during media availability at 11:10 A.M. ET
This should be good
There was some good news on prices...
I would argue that we're approaching a point where rising prices are good news.
Lliz:
Yeah, there'll be a financial system.
It's going to resemble downtown Mayberry perhaps, but it'll be there.
The Large Hadron Collider discovers the God Particle and the world is saved.
Where is the AIG announcement? I guess they don't know what to say.
Best to all.
They know what to say....they just dont have the balls to say it
Once again Will Rogers comes to mind--it's not getting a return on my money that worries me, it's getting a return of my money.
Recession strengthening? Well, thank goodness the banks are strong!
AIG is hitting all the payday loan places around the country...rates are a little higher than the fed window...
Where is the AIG announcement? I guess they don't know what to say.
George Bush will announce the AIG bailout himself this morning
Yup, "they don't know what to say" is a good synopsis.
My wife and I were in process last night of trying to figure out how Fed justifies opening up the windows to a state regulated insurance entity.
Perhaps "justifies" is the wrong word since the risk of letting them go TU is high. That said, this is even further beyond their mandate than ever considered.
Someone earlier mentioned "emergency powers" I believe. Have no knowledge of that.
TED Spread = 2.10
Not good.
This is the real game of "chicken". AIG, an insurance company, turned down private financing and is seeking a loan from the Fed. Their only justification is an implicit threat to crash the system.
AIG's executives should be shot. But I'd settle for life imprisonment.
Just wait until McCain's tax policy pumps a negative $500 billion into the Treasury....
I'd guess they'll let AIG get downgraded before they do anything...but I've been wrong several times over the last few days.
Bush: We are tough. We have strong fundamentals. We are tough. We are monitoring the situation. We are tough. I want to assure Americans that we will take the necessary steps to insure stability.
Please, Bush, just ... shut... up. I never want to hear from you again.
Doofus,
Im going to write in "Ron Paul"
Speaking of Merrill, this is amusing in a Quentin Tarantino kind of way.
Merrill seems to have gotten on the wrong side of the Australian mob:
Bronte Capital: Weekend edition: Merrill Lynch and a guy who admits killing an underworld hitman
Bankers, brokers and gangsters, sometimes you need a score card.
As I look back at all the pumping over the last six months I sure hope the SEC/DOJ sends someone to jail...
Has the 2nd half recovery been cancelled officially?
Just wait until McCain's tax policy pumps a negative $500 billion into the Treasury....
Or Obama implements those "automatic stimulus checks" he was talking about earlier this year.
The nature of politics these days is to focus too much attention on superficial quick fixes that don't address the underlying issues.
Blooms showing a -350+ pre-market for the Dow. Can this be correct?
Has the 2nd half recovery been cancelled officially?
No, it's just been postponed until 2011. The 2nd half recovery is still coming.
Doofus writes:
Blooms showing a -350+ pre-market for the Dow. Can this be correct?
Was down 400.
"2nd half recovery" has been slightly reworded to "2nd half of the century recovery".
Boy, the kids are sure not going to like us for this mess.
There's not much point McCain or O pronouncing on economic policy - they have no idea what conditions will be when one of them takes office.
McCain and Obama are just competing to be the next Hoover, anyway.
Has the 2nd half recovery been cancelled officially?
ROFL. it sure is nostalgic thinking WAY BACK TO MAY when people talkied so passionately about the assured 2nd half recovery.
hoocoodanode?
Nemo:
Re AIG executives and chicken
Wondered about that. Thought that perhaps - in my naivete - that were turning down private money as simply inadequate.
That's why I was scratching my head at the size of the potential loss.
Your premise makes sense with all of the other shyster antics.
Bush should just STFU. I can't imagine anything that he can say that will calm the markets.
Calculated Risk writes:
Where is the AIG announcement? I guess they don't know what to say.
Actually, they know what to say. They just don't want to say it.
RE: comments about Bush. Exactly. George, SHUT UP! You sound even dumber and less convincing each successive time you speak.
Gareth G: very entertaining link. ;>)
Bush is the Hoover.
Question is whether McC or Obama have the wherewithal to be the next Roosevelt.
Again, I would like to see a Teddy Roosevelt instead of a FDR. Take the bastards down.
Barclays in UK is down 14%, or 50! Wow.
Good thing they didn't do the deal otherwise someone would have to bail them out instead.
NYSE Alerts moderately interesting this morning.
"There's not much point McCain or O pronouncing on economic policy"
Absolutely not true. They should each be assembling a 'team' of advisors and acting like they are already in charge. They should be looking like the opposite of the chimp.
AIG is worrisome, wonder how exposed they are to IKE.
Does BAC test its July 15 lows soon? Or does the market perceive the Merrill blunder as a good thing?
Take what Bush says this am, spin it 180 degrees, and you'll have the truth.
14 minutes AIG...what are you going to do?
Oil down to $94/bbl.
Think that we answered the question of world demand vs speculation.
Wow.
Geez, this is like a soaper.
(Cue organ music)
Has the 2nd half recovery been cancelled officially?
We never recovered from the dot.com bust. Just look at real wages - lower today than in the year 2000.
The notion that prosperity and wealth can be generated by devaluing money is absurd. What were they thinking?
Sue (Capital S) | 09.15.08 - 9:07 am |
You forgot to throw in......9/11
CNBC reporting SEC has announced they may announce new short-selling rules as early as this week
Sorry, no more Roosevelts in this country. The elites are more like the Bushes, so now go off and eat your cake
All this superficial economy and finance stuff. What about a good ole' knock down drag out lexographical donnybrook over the proper spelling of "hoocoodanode?"
Question for you CR since you bring it up. How does one, in practice, get "away from financials?" we are all counterparties now.
homedad43 writes:
Oil down to $94/bbl.
Nigerian militants just bombed shell oil facilities this week. That's the sweet stuff.
Let's see if it continues down or a short squeeze is in order soon.
Isn't AIG supposed to announce something?
I can't wait for the mid day rally.
Dubya will reassure us that it's contained.
I'm hearing that the markets are gonna rally. They'll hit a low and then rally hard to the upside.
Erin Burnett just referred to Bill Gross as the "world's biggest bond insurer".
Heh.
Is that worth uploading to Youtube?
I predict another stimulus package soon. Who knows maybe Bush will announce it. Let's see shall we.
Bill Gross just said "what is missing" in these rescue operations is "addition of new capital, not just liquidity".
BB, you are on the mark about a new stimulus package. Treasury is going to get busy buying something. Because we always give Bill Gross what he wants.
Sorry, should have posted here.
Mer + BAC, deal was for 0.8595 shares of BAC for each share of MER.
Current quote
BAC= 28.5
MER= 21.77
0.8595 * 28.5 = 24.49575
Someone thinks this deal is going to fall apart.
Watch for Bush to announce something completely out of left, actually right, field.
Bush "We will weather this storm together. In the meantime I have assurances from Israel that the ongoing airstrike in Iran is..."
Or
Bush " We will begin exploring new ways to enable the workering class to ..."
"How does one, in practice, get "away from financials?"
Did you the rate on the 13 week Treasury this morning? No Escape.
Looking for manufacturing activity in NY (Empire State) is a bit like looking for Financial activity in Peoria Illinois.
They haven't manufactured much in that region (except 'paper' like MBS, CDO, etc.) since the sixties at least...
Manufacturing in the US is now more likely to be found in places like North Carolina, Texas, Alabama.
The too are down in automotive, housing & housing related consumer products. WAAAAAAY down in automotive... article this morning in my SME inbox saying 4000 more 'buyouts' (voluntary layoffs) at Chrysler. Whatta Surprise.
The interesting thing I'd like to see more info on is the effect of the Boeing strike... If it lasts a few weeks to a month - nothin' burger - supply chain that far behind on supplying the current build schedule let alone 'Dream Liner'... after that its gonna have a real effect - more lay offs, real out of pocket losses, somethin' burger status.
Nemo writes:
Because we always give Bill Gross what he wants.
Because he's our biggest bond insurer this side of china.
Hold on to your butts...
S&P cuts BAC...
Don't worry: Fed rate cuts will stimulate growth. And the weak dollar will stimulate exports.
Gross says he doesn't know if the Fed will "extend a lifeline" to AIG, but "something of that sort is required".
I think I'm going to puke.
Honestly, I don't think the dow will fall all that much. We'll probably end the day on the upside.
dryfly,
Good point about Boeing. $100 million a day in lost revenue.
Look at the r2k vs the TWM. Just a tad outta kilter.
over 500 folks on here at 930A
hmmmmmmmm
What happened to the -400 point drop?
why 'daq percentage drop so diff than the dow percentage? Yeah, I'm a newbie at this stuff.
index values dont reflect the futures
is the data coming in too fast to process?
It'll get there, patience
Don't worry, it'll drop 400 maybe not in one day, but what's the net difference if it drops in one day verses 5?
Hemorrhaging is rarely instant.
"Bill Gross just said "what is missing" in these rescue operations is "addition of new capital, not just liquidity"."
What Bill Gross is hinting at is the Fed needs to start printing.
AIG...Drop of more than 40 percent/
- Bloomberg
400 point drop? Jim Kramer is, as I predicted, long and strong and on the tebeisions calming the sheeple and wear a full suit and tie.
Seriously, it takes 20-30 minutes to sort out the volume of orders and after 10 minutes less than half the Dow 30 have "opened"/posted their first transactions.
"I'm hearing that the markets are gonna rally. They'll hit a low and then rally hard to the upside."
There have already been several times this year when the consensus around here was apocalypse in the markets, and instead we've seen noticeably lower losses than expected, if not outright gains when all is said and done. I bet we see the same thing here.
Cramer says your money is safe......and then chuckles.
DOW down 0.8%. No meltdown yet. Let's see the reaction to the AIG solution, whatever it turns out to be.
why 'daq percentage drop so diff than the dow percentage?
Good question. It isn't Amazon that is going to take down the financial system unless we write them a big check.
SDS, DXD, TWM, SKK all the double down ETFs are out of whack
Popeye:
Yeah, I hold both TWM and RWM. That's my casino money and everything else is sequestered as best as possible.
Could be that folks anticipate a rate cut, which typically benefits small business.
I'm still betting on gravity in the longer term.
WaMu off 20% in early trading.
Looks like a computer glitch to me. My screen is showing bid and ask prices moving as if trading is taking place, but nothing is clearing as a last price and volumes haven't changed since just after the open.
Yield on the 13-week down 49%.
Very ho-hum opening. Most of the action done over weekend.
wow...from ~100 down to ~300 in a blink of an eye....
homedad43 re Teddy Roosevelt:
His great-great grandson (Teddy V) was married on Saturday and he works on the junk bond desk at Lehman. Teddy IV, the bridegrooms father is a managing director at Lehman.
- NY Times
So help me on the t-bills. If it's down 49%, that indicates that yields are dropping precipitously and that demand for t-bills are high.
Correct?
So folks are piling into treasuries?
And there we go--the problem cleared just after I hit 'publish', and we're suddenly down 300.
homedad,
Trouble is those rate cuts haven't been passed on - I hope all that wishful thinking comes home to roost in our favor.
dd:
Don't think that their progenitor would be pleased.
On the day the Dow lost 508 points (October 19, 1987), it opened down 199.
from the time I started reading this thread until I got about twenty posts in, the Dow dropped from -96 to -300. I'm afraid to switch windows again...
BTW - if you can drag your eyes away from the babes on CNBC for a minute... read CR's update on automotive feom Marketwatch... automotive is far worse that reported... I have a conference call every Monday AM with an auto supplier I work with - grim - I'm due to do it in a few minutes. Like starting out your week with some bitter horseradish chased down with a shot of turpentine.
Auto is falling off the table... and again what a surprise - tight credit & uncertain employment situation... think I 'll go out and buy a very expensive car financed for... oh say... seven years.
Automotive as a 'biz model' is WAY more F/U'ed than RE... and RE is plenty F/U'ed.
Oh well, time to prep for horseradish & turpentine.
So when are the circuit breakers going to trip?
.......
bluestatdon,
sorry, but you are on crack. Around here 2 months ago the Dow was up 1000 pts, and 6 months ago 2000 pts.
AIG getting killed 5.99
Ben Frank'll Tank Bernanke writes:
Very ho-hum opening. Most of the action done over weekend.
It says something about the general mood, and the mood on this board, that so much can be read into some incorrect numbers coming out of a computer somewhere.
SM_Landlord and PeakVT have the real story. The 13 week is seriously steepening. I like the simplified snapshot at: Bloomberg.com:
Government Bonds
Well, the trained seals on Wall Street are conditioned to buy into panic. Normally this strategy works. I suspect that given a complete systematic meltdown, this is a recipe for disaster.
circuit breakers won't kick in until a 1200 point drop at a minimum:
NYSE, New York Stock Exchange > About Us > News & Events > Media Resources > Media Resources
Nades,
10% drop is first
dryfly, thanks for the update. Good luck on that conference call.
Best Wishes.
Paulson to speak at White House at 1:30 pm eastern
"Mission accomplished"
"Why do you think I'm leaving my post in January"
Ah hahahhaa they are still running those AIG commercials on CNBC. So wrong!!
Nice link, RD.
Pres. Bush to address financial markets during media availability at 11:10 A.M. ET
Oh, that'll help. Not.
Wachovia getting hammered.
Pres. Bush to address financial markets during media availability at 11:10 A.M. ET
Live shot of him taking a crap on J6P.
dryfly,
This supplier just do domestic?
Im curious if foreign demand will keep automakers afloat.
Certainly the US market is dead, or soon will be. The demand after will likely be in smaller cars.
The system begging for another rate cut via the repo. process.
Temporary Open Market Operations - Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Submitted= $160.60b (largest submission I've ever seen)
Accepted= $20b
Rate cut guaranteed....not that it makes one damn bit of difference though.
Ciao
MS
More comedy.
Johnny-on-the-Spot, Fitch slashes Lehman ratings to default:
Expired
The bond desk won't take my sell order this morning. They keep canceling it the second I submit it. =(
Welcome to Pakistan ladies and gents.
Halo is getting wiley again...
Must be the volume!
.......
dryfly,
Don't you think an electric GM car priced at $45,000 will save them?
Ha.
Dirty little secret: So many broken windows downtown Houston skyscrapers were not the result of the hurricane Ike. No, no, bank workers were there busily looting the places and the upper management getting rid of documents and PCs by throwing those out of windows
BoA is down 12%.
So much for maximizing shareholder value.
Anyone know why MER didnt jump to 29$?
........
WashMutt next to go?
Waiting for Bush to calm the markets.... NOT! Whoa-ho, What a mess!!!
I predict another stimulus package soon. Who knows maybe Bush will announce it. Let's see shall we.
I hate to be this negative, but so far we've followed every step from "10 Secrets to the Greatest Screw-Ups in Financial History".
The next step is some form of printing money.
Maybe this will be the one mistake we don't make, but I'm not going to bet my life on it.
No way Helicopter Ben is going to stay inflating.
Anyone know why MER didnt jump to 29$?
I suspect the answer is on the con call.
Currently BAC * sharepurchase =
0.8595 * 29.84 = 25.64748
MER at 22.9
I say again, somebody is dubious about the close of the deal.
Honestly,
So far, it looks like a bit of a snooze for a meltdown. Less than a 3% overall decline is well within the scope of a bad day.
I went and looked at the AAA gas price list this morning. So much for declining NYMEX oil prices helping the 'consumer'. Lots of gas prices right back where they were when oil was at $140 except California is getting a break now and the Southeast getting hammered.
558 Visitors Online...@ 10 AM EST.
So far, it looks like a bit of a snooze for a meltdown. Less than a 3% overall decline is well within the scope of a bad day.
The day is young. And the volatility is high.
So far, it looks like a bit of a snooze for a meltdown. Less than a 3% overall decline is well within the scope of a bad day.
Concur. Markets taking this surprisingly well.
Spunkmeyer | JP
Thanks....
I'm still laughing over that:
"Is the second half recovery offically been canceled yet?"
Damn thats funny!!!!
........
The President will speak to us.
My guess he will have some stern words for the people in congress that want higher taxes and more big government...this is not a situation that has been caused by the lack of oversight and regulation...the markets are cyclical by nature...we must take the long view...the fundamentals are fine...
Sorry but today is different. Even the Twittertariat has been distracted from their indignant Sarah Palin postings. Lots of "AIG omfg" tweets.
No refineries operating = increase oil supplies....decrease gas supplies...
All means lower oil prices and higher gas prices.
Makes sense to me. First time in a long time.
Well, today is the day all of them can dump bad news and get it over with..
I suspect that S&P downgrade of BAC likely planted considerable doubt in alot of heads about the deal finalizing. No doubt, it was forced upon Lewis anyways. He's not that stupid to pay a 70% premium over last Friday's close, at least, not voluntarily. Fed's whippin' boy.
S&P LOWERS CREDIT RATING TO AA- FROM AA; ON WATCH NEGATIVE
Oh THIS is funny....
Someone just bought the LEH 2.5 Oct puts @2.30.
The most they could make is about $260 on them AFTER putting down $2,300 for 'em. That mean;s it has to zero out for that to happen.
This is why these "issues" happen. People with more money than brains.
Ciao
MS
From Naked Capitalism:
Banks Can Now Use Deposits to Fund Investment Banking Operations? « naked capitalism
Reader Michael M called our attention to this statement in a Financial Times article:
The Fed also suspended rules that prohibit banks from using deposits to fund their investment banking subsidiaries.
Was this the quid pro quo for Band of America buying Merrill? If so, the repercussions extend beyond BofA. This is a time when the federal authorities need to be vigilant, not lax about banks taking risk with depostors' funds.
Note than many banking experts, post the S&L crisis and now, recommend the reverse, "narrow banking", which requires banks to invest depositors' funds only in the very safest assets. This is the exact opposite of the sort of regulatory measures needed to improve the health of the banking system. Expediency trumps soundness.
Any reader inputs appreciated.
Markets not facing reality. If Lehman's Alt-A mortgages were valued, pre bankruptcy, at 39 cents on the dollar how can AIG's and Wachovia's be worth 66 cents?
Reminds me of the scene from City Slickers...
Billy Crystal: "So Curly, did you kill anyone today?"
Jack Palin: "Day ain't over yet."
Hope everyone is enjoying their nothingburgers.
No meltdown until after the elections.
how much longer can these guys juice the dollar?
I go to bed last night and dollar is down across the board, I wake up and dollar is up against all but the yen...
The lower oil, and higher gas should actually be really good for DIG and the oil cos. American oil companies refine product, they don't really pump much oil. They make their money off the spread. Probably won't play out that way in the market though....
NOW it is gut check time for Bennie and the FEDz. DOes he stare down the liquidity crunch and start printing and flinging, or does he save the cash-rich and let deflation kill-kill-kill the poor debtors?
What's gonna happen to Bucky now?
I no longer have a preference, because no matterwho you are, and what your position, the times they are gonna suck mightily.
Markets not facing reality. If Lehman's Alt-A mortgages were valued, pre bankruptcy, at 39 cents on the dollar how can AIG's and Wachovia's be worth 66 cents?
unit472
Hey! Look over there! A shark! Puppies! Sarah Palin!
SS,
Yes but wait until the rest of failing companies get flushed into the open with really low share-price and high-interest to service their growing debt...they'll bk as well and then you have a cascade of failure.
While this is not a deleterious catastrophe, down almost trey-fid 30 mins in is a bit unnerving.
No doubt, it was forced upon Lewis anyways.
It occurs to me that if I were Ken Lewis and unexcited about the prospect of having a negative balance sheet forced down my throat, I would do the deal so high that the shareholders vote it down.
Everybody wins. Feds get their delay (no concurrent meltdown) BAC looks like a team player, and then punts MER before close.
Anyone know why MER didnt jump to 29$?
........
nades | 09.15.08 - 9:58 am | #
About 12% of that is because the offer is worth less than it was last night (it was made in a badly deflating currency, BAC stock).
The rest would presumably be uncertainty that the deal will actually go through as advertised. That's hard to judge until we get details on the agreement.
friar-
I have to agree.....however the real bullshit of this is that the FED now accepts equities at the alphabet soup auction. So all those stocks that have had severe haircuts (LEH, FNM, FRE, AIG-too many to list here) that are sitting in L3 are now "eligible" to be turned into cash and thrown at the market. Methinks they won't accept the FNM, FRE stocks however they also think (or say) that those entities will be profitable in 2011 too.
This is exactly what led to these problems.
Ciao
MS
don't focus on one day drops. big picture is a little more revealing. like 16% YOY with a ways to go.
Well the 5$ sept put only popped 2.58
i thought it would have done better...oh-well
Mark D writes:
Paulson to speak at White House at 1:30 pm eastern
"Mission accomplished"
"Why do you think I'm leaving my post in January"
Does anyone know which side of the screen he will speak from?
@ friardaddy
Thanks for that info. I think. That is some crazy sh*t - not too easy to digest at 7 AM PDT.
well BoA market value is < then of JP Morgan as of today...
Does anyone know which side of the screen he will speak from?
trader walt
The bulletproof side.
So.... we are above Thursday's lows???
Things were worse last Thursday?
John Thain totally looks like Stephen Colbert.
guess what, there are number of voices proclaiming the bottom is here....
let's rally!!! (-2+%)
Dryfly,
Which end does the horseradish and turpinine go in?
Have a Nice Day
WaHoo! Mission accomplished! Bring Em On!!
Markets not facing reality. If Lehman's Alt-A mortgages were valued, pre bankruptcy, at 39 cents on the dollar how can AIG's and Wachovia's be worth 66 cents?
unit472
You may well be right about this, but "alt-A" isn't a uniform commodity that can be expected to have a single market price. Can some of this be because Lehman's alt-A was of lower quality? They were heavily into buying up bottom of the barrel B/C, and I wonder if some of that BNC Mortgage production wound up getting packaged as alt-A.
btw, capacity utilization down to 78.7%, but dont worry, no recession. 2nd half recovery must have been some kind of inverted paradigm shift, where 3% gdp becomes negative but that is an improvement. LOL. Where's that little pump monkey from NC when you need him?
Quant bubble trades holding up like a champ. The more things change the more things stay the same.
Oh, and Ameritrade's site just crashed. Lovely.
13-week yield now down 54%. Chart:
Quotes for ^IRX - Yahoo! Finance
BofA is at least taking on the best strategy for survival: get bigger, get so much crap on your books you will have to absolutely be back-stopped no matter what. So you're only risk is if US defaults, and that ain't gonna happen right? Of course it destroys the beautiful efficiency of our markets doesn't it?
Just stir up the foreigners to dump their markets. Create "sudden" fear and have naive Americans run for the money markets. Pumps the Treasuries.
Financial jackasses still playing their stupid psychology games. 5 years from now any of them found on the streets will be open game.
Anyone have visibility into CDS?
PS. Ameritrade up for me.
quotes were really screwed up anyway
PeakVT --
Your charts are 20-minutes delayed. Real-time shows IRX now at 0.82%, down 44%.
Still a big move (which I highlighted near the top of this thread).
They have unleashed the bounce monkeys... "this was the sentiment bottom"...
Are the WMD's being used against the financial markets ? Bush speak ...
So Ken Lewis has just essentially admitted that BoA did NO DUE DILLIGENCE on this deal. This guy is a buffoon, or else a fraud.
Shotgun merger.
Markets will go down slowly after all news is digested probably over the week.
No crash here.
S&P downgrades Bank of America ratings
hard to rationalize such a muted response.
Gavshire Hathaway writes:
So Ken Lewis has just essentially admitted that BoA did NO DUE DILLIGENCE on this deal. This guy is a buffoon, or else a fraud.
Gavshire Hathaway | 09.15.08 - 10:21 am | #
The deal happened in all of 5 minutes. Did you really think they did anything other than "hey dude, 50bil ok?" "a-ok, just get me out of this shitpile"
Help me with this please.
Yields down on treasuries as everyone piling into them, correct?
Unclear as to the real problem (yeah, I'm a duhster with this aspect). Point reached that eventually everyone says screw it and sells the treasuries as no longer profitable and able to get better rates elsewhere?
Popeye --
hard to rationalize such a muted response.
How do you figure? The financial companies have just re-arranged their holdings. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley can now finance (long) equity positions with ultra-low-interest Fed loans.
Dow could easily snap 1000 points in either direction from here.
When do we get the FF rate cut ?
How long is AIG going to hold out? weren't they supposed to announce something this morning?
what about them - AIG conference?
playing chicken with Paulson again?
Cant log in to Ameritrade's pages all went black save for the trade box, and the streamer - stupidly closed my browser, now I cant even log back in. Tried to call them - due to heavy call volume, your call cannot go through.
Asshats.
homedad43 --
Yields down on treasuries as everyone piling into them, correct?
Correct. Short-term yields crashing suggests a FF cut coming. Long-term yields crashing implies fears about credit risk or, conceivably, deflation.
But yeah, yields are down = people are buying them.
USO steadily climbing.
Umm...this is bad.
Banks Can Now Use Deposits to Fund Investment Banking Operations? « naked capitalism
Nemo,
Equities to the Fed - aye, there's the rub. Thanks Nemo. And, by the by, thank you for that derivative analysis you did on the 10Q's. That was very helpful.
Geoff, if you aren't already:
Firefox + lastest Java.
If that doesn't work, it might be your isp. Things here ok.
Bush being Bush
will his announcement this AM be about the markets or about Texas relief?
it just came back up - Im already on firefox with latest java, but thx. Was about to get really irritated.
Only the pro's are in this market. Like a fine chess game. Oh and some pawns like Seb. Whatever way it breaks there will be blood.
Bush: "Heck of a job Fuldy."
I'm a pawn too {wait don't get me started on another poem} [[ don't worry, I won't inflict that on ya'll at this point]]
KBZ-
They have been doing it all along. That is just tacit approval to continue to do so.
Ciao
MS
I can see a bottom.Actually quite a few bottoms,and other things.The tide is going out FAST...
Homedad 43:
Several rather inconspicuous articles this weekend on how the Chinese were finally getting fed up with their investments in the US and beginning to get out. If these stories are to be believed, then rates won't go down for long. They will have to start going up, no matter what the FED does. If we run a deficit, and other countries are now deciding enough is enough, rates will not decline...just give it a week or two.
Bruce in Tennessee
Anybody seen the most recent S&P earnings estimates, especially financials and energy? Look a little frothy to me. What say you?
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_500/2,3,2,2,0,0,0,0,0,1,6,0,0,0,0,0.html
"USO steadily climbing."
You oil bulls crack me up.
Oh, come on. I just saw a commercial last night (before the power went out, good old American infrastructure) explaining to me that the thing we all really needed was a hybrid... get this... Cadillac Escalade.
It defies snark.
"sorry, but you are on crack."
Naw, I don't mess with that stuff. I stick to airplane glue.
Don't get me wrong, I think the market will continue its ride southwards. I've just grown skeptical that single events will prompt the sort of immediate catastrophic meltdowns some predict when the bad stuff happens. Armageddon ain't here yet... that's for when Sarah takes the oaf of office.
Who cares about Bush - CNN headline
'O.J. heard ranting on tape at robbery trial'
OJ IS IN THE HOUSE
OJ OJ OJ
Lehman ? AIG ? Borrrinnnggggg.
Pay attention while we repeat today's important news - OJ! OJ! OJ!