NAHB: Builder Confidence Near Record Low

in

First?

But it's up month-over-month.

Time to rally!

Horror graph show.

Builder confidence is just another word for nothing left to lose, nothing baby, if it ain't free

Why have we not seen BKs from builders yet?

Usually housing bottoms look like a "V"; this one will probably look more like an "L". (this refers to activity like starts and sales, but will probably also be apparent in the confidence survey).

|___________________________

This is most certainly not my fault.

They need a government bailout!!

actually, it was 18 in September, not 17.

My small local builder client keeps wanting to start another house, when he can't sell the previous 2. I keep discouraging him. Oh, he sez, by the time the house is finished we will be out of the woods. No, I say.

Of course it was up. Some are still in business so this represents the "Gosh I feel lucky" syndrome.

OT:

Learned from the best...

Page not found

Ciao
MS

MoT, we have - just fewer than some expected. Perhaps the builder's lenders don't want to force them into BK, so they can limit their own write downs for now.

Nemo, very funny. It's amazing that some news stories are reporting the small increase. The graph shows the real story ...

Best Wishes.

This place is great! I LOVE it here!

It's like when we get a bit snarly and snarky, the day care folks grab something shiny and wag it in the air above the crib and we all run toward the shiny thing and ...

If an "L" is big enough it tends to become indistinguishable from a horizontal line.

"Usually housing bottoms look like a "V"; this one will probably look more like an "L". (this refers to activity like starts and sales, but will probably also be apparent in the confidence survey)."

On a heart monitor, an "L" means "flatline." They ain't coming back. And while housing must come back in some form -- they wear out, y'know -- it may be as some weird "dawn of the dead" version of its former self.

On the upside, flat lines are ideal building sites.

it just occured to me, neither party wants AIG to be a factor in the election,,,suddenly i'm thinkin,,,bet they do something???

rnutting@marketwatch.com, thanks. The NAHB site orignially showed 17. They just fixed it ...

I'll update the graph.

Best Wishes.

Who are the worst positioned homebuilders? I'm thinking HOV is atrocious, but I'd love some other short candidates to do some due diligence on. Does anyone have a couple favorites?

Probably more like a crooked U... a very very wide crooked U.

|______________________________/

Thank you CR. Consistently keeping it real.

Talk about the right guy at the right time.

And I thought I came here just to figure out when's the right time to buy a house?

From previous thread:

How do you think the current financial crisis will affect the Iran situation? A few weeks ago I heard rumors that the attack is still on. Do you think the financial meltdown will encourage or discourage the administration's plans?

Now we're getting this news:

Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found

o?t

Munich Re is interested in a number of the assets of troubled U.S. insurance firm AIG, the German company's chief executive told a newspaper.

"In general a lot of the businesses are interesting for us," Chief Executive Nikolaus von Bomhard told German daily Handelsblatt in a preview of a story to be published on Wednesday.

"Decisive is whether they fit with our strategy and price is right."

Shares in American International Group (AIG) plumetted on Tuesday after the insurer's credit ratings were cut, heightening concerns it might file for bankruptcy."

(like I said late yesterday, I was open to buy, and I did at the open)

They will get a bridge loan, and it will be parcelled off - beakup value is $28 depending on the finance losses..imho

Greenberg-Led AIG Investors Consider Taking Control

Greenberg-Led AIG Investors Consider Taking Control (Update2) - Bloomberg.com 
Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- American International Group Inc. investors led by former Chief Executive Officer Maurice ``Hank'' Greenberg may consider taking control of the insurer through a proxy fight or buyout.

The investors also are considering acquiring New York-based AIG's subsidiaries or making loans to the company. They disclosed their options today in a regulatory filing.

Greenberg may be seeking to rescue the insurer that is struggling to raise cash amid losses tied to U.S. mortgages and credit downgrades. Greenberg, who was ousted in 2005 amid a regulatory probe into accounting, controls about 11 percent of the company through personal holdings and companies he heads. The stake has plunged in value as AIG stock declined more than 90 percent this year.

Greenberg's group is reviewing its options ``in light of current circumstances relating to'' AIG, the filing said.

AIG declined $1.71, or 37 percent, to $3.02, paring losses from earlier in the day when shares were down 74 percent.

Glen Rochkind, a spokesman for Greenberg, declined to comment.

How do you think the current financial crisis will affect the Iran situation

I believe that these latest events have thankfully hogtied this administration and therefore prevents them to act on their disaster seeking impulses.

O/T

CNBC needs more Becky Quick.

That is all.

CR-

Have the recent financial events been worse than you were expecting and has it changed your outlook wrt moderate/severe recession at all?

BQ is Cute but annoying

Where do they find the collateral for the bridge loan by this afternoon. Its gonna take a lot of Man U jerseys to get to ~100B

Perhaps the slight increase in confidence by the builders is coz gas prices are coming down so those livin in their cars can afford to drive around and look at new homes.

Conjure says, "COME TO JESUS!"

This is part of WW3 preps. Don't expect the lunatics at the wheel to feel constrained by facts or concerns about the consequences.

Without a huge bloody war, the people will be watching domestic issues. Can't have that.

Better to say, "We had a problem, but it wasn't catastrophic...until THOSE guys did THIS." Rally round the flag, everyone!

Somebody take the watch while I go cut the grass... Conjure??

This is very off topic but I am going to be on a panel in a month or so that follows a speech by Alan Greenspan and will have a chance to ask a question or two.

If you could ask Greenspan a question or two, what would it be?

JPM paying .38c divi...

1929er writes:
Somebody take the watch while I go cut the grass... Conjure??


John Deere stock just went up 2 percent

Giuliani says AIG should look abroad for help

CORRECTED - Giuliani says AIG should look abroad for help
| Reuters

Hey Rudy how many time can American intitutions hand these guy's handgernads with the pins pulled out before they tell you to go frik youself?

If you could ask Greenspan a question or two, what would it be?

"Do you have any shame?"

Currently Smoking Cannabis | 09.16.08 - 1:39 pm |
I agree.
That's why we are trying so hard to get someone to throw the first punch, Russia, Iran, Pakistan.....etc.
So that way we can blame them.
After all....we are compassionate people

When the stock market hits 8000, they won't feel like buying anything. And the homebuilders won't be around to do this survey anymore. Wells Fargo will have to ask me, and I'll ask them how there HELOC porfolio is doing in return.

"If you could ask Greenspan a question or two, what would it be?"

DO YOU BELIEVE IN GOD?

According to LEAP2020:
The « Very Great Depression » is already triggered in the US and, according to LEAP/E2020, it will result before the end of 2009 in a regime crisis in the US, where the army will play an important role.

http://www.leap2020.eu/SEQUENCE-6-Very-Great-Depression-in-the-US,-social-unrest-and-army-s-growing-influence-on-public-affairs-2nd-quarter_a2036.html?PHPSESSID=ce9a6bb9e2a542023cc306ca720bf50b

Oh, he sez, by the time the house is finished we will be out of the woods. No, I say.

What does "out of the woods mean"?

Maybe people will be buying houses in 2 years. But at what price?

The cost to build homes is rising while home prices are falling. Lumber is up 10-15% since bottoming in the spring. The cost of construction financing has to be going through the roof.

"If you could ask Greenspan a question or two, what would it be?"

Who is John Gault ?

Hey Alan, Do You Yahoo (finance)?

If you could ask Greenspan a question or two, what would it be?

Top or bottom?

Hummmmm Greenspan???

Do you know,,,history is going to hang all of this on you???

I believe that these latest events have thankfully hogtied this administration and therefore prevents them to act on their disaster seeking impulses.

You're kidding, right?

You think Bush-Cheney are gonna throw 3 years of war planning and training down the drain, just because of a financial crisis?

Dear AG:

Please tell me as a tax paying saver whether I'm a shelimiel or a shlimatzel?

Points are deducted for each mention of soup.

Oh, he sez, by the time the house is finished we will be out of the woods.

Tell him to go ahead WITH HIS OWN MONEY - that usually shuts them up.

Hey Elvis,
I didn't think of that. Once a HB goes out of business, they don't survey them anymore. They don't even wait a while before they're not counted (as they do with the unemployed).

"If you could ask Greenspan a question or two, what would it be?"

What's the frequency, Kenneth?

If you could ask Greenspan a question or two, what would it be?

Do you want fries with that?

"If you could ask Greenspan a question or two, what would it be?"

On Tuesday, August 6, 2008 Ascendia Brands (the company that makes Mr. Bubble) filed for bankruptcy protection. Mr. Greenspan, do you think this is coincidence or something more sinister?

And I thought I came here just to figure out when's the right time to buy a house?

Yeah, I didn't expect to have a guided tour of a "once in a hundred year" event. Thanks to all.

"## What's the frequency, Kenneth?"

LOL....I won't even play after that answer.

I will stake my inconsiderable reputation that the "not new lows" assertion represents a survivor's bias error.

If you could ask Greenspan a question or two, what would it be?

"did you get your book royalties up front?"

"Will you please just GO AWAY?"

Rob Dawg,
Reminds me of all the managed mutual fund companies that drop the bottom 10-15% of funds each year to keep the results up.

"If you could ask Greenspan a question or two, what would it be?"

Do you want to be now known as "The Imposter Maestro" or Alan "The Finanical Bubble of Destruction" Greenspan?

"if you could ask Greenslime a question"

Would please go stand against that wall then put this blindfold?

Cheers,

Question for Greenspan:

Who is a better paid liar, you or your wife?

"If you could ask Greenspan a question or two, what would it be?"

Have you ever slept with or thought about sleeping with Tanta?

"I believe that these latest events have thankfully hogtied this administration and therefore prevents them to act on their disaster seeking impulses"

Ha! Just the cover they were counting on. It's an opportunity to shift the focus so no one will notice when the pigmen load up.

Would please go stand against that wall then put this blindfold?

Cheers,
Misean | Homepage | 09.16.08 - 1:54 pm | #

Correct please pass go.

I'd ask Greenspan if he still thinks advising everyone to get into ARMs at a time when rates were at a historic low was a good idea.

Any old economist-

I'd pin Greenspan down for an answer to this:

How much debt is safe for the average American to take on when purchasing a home?

What percentage of their income should go to paying the expenses involved in homeownership (mortgage, taxes, insurance).

What is the multiple of income that most Americans should buy at, to ensure stability in the future (not now, instability is baked into the cake for the foreseeable future), Is it 1X? 2X?3X ?10X ?15X?

I would love for Greenspan to give us a REAL answer on this, without waffling and bullsh*tting.

Good God, what is with the dithering today? Is this what it's come to? Or is there some sort of high level ideological discussion going on inside the Fed right now?

"I'd ask Greenspan if he still thinks advising everyone to get into ARMs at a time when rates were at a historic low was a good idea."

Hell yes it was. Who wants to lock the banks into ultra-low interest rates for 30 years? No, no, no..... let the homeowner 'benefit.' That was just a shift of risk. It only looks like a bad call because you misunderstand who he was representing.

Bloomberg says WaMu can survive if no bank run by customers:
WaMu's $143 Billion Retail Deposit Base May Buy Time (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Day to day ops bankrolled by deposits, not by short-term loans.

AIG will have an orderly, well scripted funeral...'morrow

Bloomberg says WaMu can survive if no bank run by customers

Well THAT gives one confidence!

"Was your destruction of the US economy intentional or just accidental?"

for those that play dips,,,CEG

OT: Constellation stock now down 71% for the day - the ability to buy a stock with real assets for a 71% discount sounds great to me!

Bloomberg says WaMu can survive if no bank run by customers

Quick! Shut down the Internet before Sheila gets mad!

looking for entry .....now...

"Bloomberg says WaMu can survive if no bank run by customers:"

BOOO!

the ability to buy a stock with real assets for a 71% discount sounds great to me!

Knock yourself out.
Posting here will just get people to pile onto the short side.

I'd ask Greenspan if he still thinks advising everyone to get into ARMs at a time when rates were at a historic low was a good idea.

He's been asked that, he says he was quoted out of context. It was just hypothetical. Something like that.

FYI: Sheila Bair is coming up on the Bloomberg stream.

Run customers, RUN!

Cheers,

For those not familiar with Yiddish -

shlemiel
A clumsy, inept person, similar to a klutz (also a Yiddish word). The kind of person who always spills his soup.

shlimazel
Someone with constant bad luck. When the shlemiel spills his soup, he probably spills it on the shlimazel.

look @ toll brothers insiders selling . Are they afraid . It reminds me of the tan guy TOL: Insider Transactions for TOLL BROTHERS INC - Yahoo! Finance

Knock yourself out.
Posting here will just get people to pile onto the short side

It just seems to be that the financial crisis jumped the shark.

More importantly, Erin or Becky who is hotter.

Dell see lower business spending. With all the consolidation in financial services they can expect the trend to get worse to the downside.

2:30 ET for Sheila

Fred-
I know what they mean, I watched Laverne and Shirley.

I want to thank CR, Tanta, and all the commenters here.

It is such a relief to have a place to come to that is filled with people who have been watching this clusterf*ck evolve and unfold ON a DAILY BASIS for the past 2 years, and thus understand what has happened and why.

It is very frustrating to be constantly listening to people, from those in the neighborhood to commentators on CNBC, responding as though this has "come out of the blue" or was not totally predictable.

Again, thanks to all for a place of sane reflection and informed opinions.

I just had a vision.
50bps cut on the way.

You can go ahead and book it.

Lama,
Long time no post. Exactly. Survivor's bias, composite rotation, laggard pumping. Itsallgood as Casey would claim. Wink

Bob Toll can use his stock sale proceeds on cigarettes in prison to buy protection.

WAMU does have better customer service than most banks/thrifts etc. I hope it survives.

"I know what they mean, I watched Laverne and Shirley."

But they lived in Milwaukee... I didn't know they were Jewish??

Bill Poole: no rate cut. Are the 80% wrong?

Getting ready to laugh my arse off when we get a 50bps and the overjoyed Dow goes up 100. Fools

It just seems to be that the financial crisis jumped the shark.

Then post something with a little more heft to it than "a company with real assets". Have you noticed that there quite a few companies going into the toilet with "real assets"?

The problem of course is that there are "real liabilities". And if you are pumping here then many folks are going to focus on the difference between assets and liabilities, which will lead to a different outcome than you are hoping for.

I think it's quite plain to see that this financial "crisis" is all but manufactured.

Not in the sense that it isn't a crisis, just in the sense that events are unfolding quite exactly as they have been designed to do.

All the thoughts spewing around here about Iran, Russia, regime crisis in the US, etc....carry at least some weight in my opinion...though it unlikely that we can at our level of input deduce what the outcome of all this maddness is meant to be.

But you simply cannnot believe that this is "crisis" is so unexpected by the top parties involved...

Did Mr. Serin just make it into a CR post? Sweet Jeezus....Why is the Fonz putting on skis?

But they lived in Milwaukee... I didn't know they were Jewish??
Anak

I bet you also didn't know that Carmine was Indian and Squiggy was Chinese.

When will the Fed meeting adjourn?
Are they also working on AIG?
Market confidence is fragile and ready to break. Leh' BK, Merill's sale to BA and pending collapses of Wamu, Wachovia, AIG, weigh heavily on the market psyche. Moreover, GS reported disappointing earnings after global market crashes overnight. If rate cut is not in the card and resolution to AIG problems not completed as anticipated, all hell will break loose. Is Hank playing roulette with the economy in its current state? Interesting!

Currently Smoking Cannabis writes:
FYI: Sheila Bair is coming up on the Bloomberg stream.

Way upstream, without a freaking paddle!

But they lived in Milwaukee... I didn't know they were Jewish??

You don't have to be jewish to know what they mean.

WAMU does have better customer service than most banks/thrifts etc. I hope it survives

Since even they are acknowledging their only remaining source of money is their customers' deposits, which depends entirely on their customers' confidence, that seems unlikely.

Rob,
I sometimes get jobs where I set around and wait for questions. This one, they want me to do real work.

I will miss WaMu as well. I pulled out a few weeks ago, but they did have the best service. Sad

">>If you could ask Greenspan a question or two, what would it be?"

How much gold do you own?

set around, sit around. whatever.

If Fed cuts any less than 50bp today, we'll get a full 100bp move within a week. So it's really a question of how many bullets (in short supply) do they want to use up today.

"I just had a vision.
50bps cut on the way"

& AIG LOAN!

"I just had a vision."

Was that vision a friend of yours?

If Fed makes a cut, I'll be on the phone tomorrow to Citi and MBNA about my CC interest rates.

what will happen to the dollar with 50 bps rate cut?

Later this week, when AIG either implodes completely, or figures out a way to hide its' problems for the next 10-20 years, do we finally get that 2nd half '08 recovery that Paulson promised several months back?

I don't know what this means, but:

BC-APNewsAlert

WASHINGTON (AP) — Scientists document largest population of grizzly bears in Montana in more than 30 years.

BEARS, not bulls

It will become a cheap alternative to rolling papers.

"what will happen to the dollar with 50 bps rate cut?"

Got Gold?

"Scientists document largest population of grizzly bears in Montana in more than 30 years."

I think it means that Bush will open up grizzly hunting in Montana.

lama writes: I sometimes get jobs where I set around and wait for questions. This one, they want me to do real work.

Bummer, got an empty seat next to you?

I love the $1 for the question, $140/hr to be available to answer the question correctly gigs.

"If you could ask Greenspan a question or two, what would it be?"

How much do you charge a Wall Street bond trader for giving him advice on how to loot taxpayer wealth?

NO CHANGE IN FED FUNDS RATE

No change in the Fed Fund rate.

Doh!

Look out below.

Steady As She Sinks!

That's Ballgame-

The wild animals are taking over.

Frankly, i'd rather have them in charge of our world than these domesticated Wall Street pigs and their political lackeys.

Hold the line.

no change.

Cheers,

What the f?

FED - UNCH 2.0

TIMBER!!!!!

Scientists document largest population of grizzly bears in Montana in more than 30 years.

It means the "Threatdown" will make an appearance on Colbert's show soon.

Inflation will moderate... later. Jeez.

DECISION UNANIMOUS

I drink your milkshake.

SO FAR:

YTL: 1
People betting on fed drop: 0

Let's see if I can bat 1000...

AIG solution? I'm waiting....

Absolutely the right decision by the Fed.

Dow should drop, too. Which is also right and necessary.

OMG!!!!

federal reserve finally did the right thing!

whocoodanode?!!!

Hands in the air, folks! Make sure the bar is pulled tight against your lap.

Wooo hooo.... this thing not only goes upside down, it goes under water. Good times.

2:00 PM came and went, so they're pounding AIG again.

Conjure says, "COME TO JEEEE-SUS!"

Haha - Just refreshed my charts. I don't even have to check Bloomberg to see the Fed cut less than 50bp.

Me thinks they were protecting the dollar, but not for us.

Dow went from up 25 to down 63 in a SNAP

So the Fed decided to hold the line and see what else goes down.

BTW, "The biggest jump in the London interbank lending rate in seven years could wreak further havoc on the U.S. housing market and there's nothing the Federal Reserve can do about it."

--Bloomberg

hoo-ray, smart move

save the bullets for when you really need them

ceg was great buy $15+ since posted here....cheers for heads up

Vote was unanimous!!!!

Fed will cut 100bp by next Tuesday - count on it.

"Paulson Considers A Conservatorship For AIG"

headline on dealbreaker. is this true? anyone can confirm another source on this?

Shite, we are the dollar, at least for the next 5 minutes....

where is the explosive downside? PPT in action?

AIG? Hellooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo?

CNBC: "There was active loud booing" on Wall Street as a reaction to the announcement.

Suckerz...

ew post

Nice vision, CSC.

Anonymouse-

dang! please don't rain on my parade! I've been waiting for this for what seems like forever.

I'm gonna breath easy today.

Haha.

Self-PWN3D

Was that vision a friend of yours?

California Casual.....

FOMC:

"Economic growth appears to have slowed lately". LOL

Yeah, it appears that way to me too.

Good to have geniuses at the top. Things always go better that way.

CNBC: Breaking news on AIG

Hank Greenberg trying to take control of AIG through proxy fight or proxy fight (which is old news).

Greenberg: Blah... blah... I was a stud... Why don't you love me anymore? All I want to do is help. Why won't you take my calls? I'm going to show you bitches.

cd writes:
ceg was great buy $15+ since posted here....cheers for heads up

Ya, I bought at just under $15 and then posted so others could enjoy. No real reason it shouldn't be back at $40.

Fed will cut 100bp by next Tuesday - count on it.

You've got a great record, but I'd fade that bet.

Bernanke understands liquidity traps, and there's no way he'd lead the charge into one.

Bloomberg has now taken to reporting breaking news from a source described as "person says".

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