Predictions and Emails

I predict I am first.

Great couple of clips at London Banker
London Banker 

we require guillotines..

I predict I'm second!

emo, somebody is going to write a script of their own. When they do... oh you will rue the day...

RUE I SAY!!!!

Hey CR, the real prediction I would like to hear from you:

Will it work?

that should have read, someday somebody is going to write a script

As it was written above it implied I might do it. That will never happen.

Quote of the day:

"I used a WaMu ATM today and it asked to borrow $20 till Friday"

(thanx LOLFed)

Sorry CR, I retract my email asking when I am getting my pony....

When will we 'know' what the "mother of all Crisis" is???

Will no one 'trust' our ability to handle it?

I'm going to go out on a huge limb here and guess that thing doesn't pass. Despite the Bush-Paulson-Pelosi-Reid-Bernanke alliance, both liberals and conservatives hate this plan, and as does middle America. The only folks who love it are, surprise, surprise, those tied to the financial institutions that it bails out.

The media started out reporting this bills passage as likely to be overwhelming, but the longer it takes to come to a vote (and it probably won't get a vote this week), the more time there is for folks to analyze how well it stands on its own merits. And, frankly, it doesn't stand very well.

The only hope to pass this bill is a rushed vote.

I'm thinking this$700 billion largess should be controlled by someone other than Paulson or BB. Maybe CR.

Here's to all the contrarian (at least on this site) douche bags. Please feed the douche bags.

The only folks who love it are, surprise, surprise, those tied to the financial institutions that it bails out.

OK, but wouldn't that be a majority in both houses of Congress?

Somewhat OT, but is Tanta ok? Seems she should have weighed in by now...it's been a while, or certainly seems that way. I'm missing her sharp tongue and cutting insight.

I heard Barney Frank being interviewed on MSNBC earlier. I still say he is related to Paul Frank:

WELCOME TO PAUL FRANK INDUSTRIES

The Monkey Puppet Speaks

No, I don't think it will work. Might get us to November tho.

This is a really weird news/lack of news period. I think the collective perception of our shared world has shattered.

Houston, as Char said, the US 4th largest city is still without power.

Housing, on Zip, in No VA is at least 30% short/foreclosure and there is a lot of it.

The economy, even in No. Va, is starting to obviously slowdown.

Atlanta is almost out of gas.

I could go on. These all come back to why the "PLAN" is not going to work. I can not think of any worse group of leaders except for the French General staff in 1914 - 1917.

If this wasn't an election year, I think the bill would pass w/o too much opposition.

Given most of the US opposes this giveaway,and many representatives are up for re-election, I think iceman is correct, it won't pass.

However, the next step after the bill fails is that the market comes unglued and they rush a larger bill through a week later.

Who ordered the Vinegar and Water?

Ron Paul is gonna flip shit.

I want to see what BRK-A does tomorrow. I am still kicking myself for not buying a share or two in July.

Nova writes:

Houston, as Char said, the US 4th largest city is still without power.


73% of Houston has power. I can't believe the facts were distorted by a poster on this site.

CNP

Perhaps the bill gets passed, but with reduced spending authority? No-way can HP & Co value $700B in SIVs overnight, so why give them so much money up front?

I don't trust Newt. He'd shut down the world for spite.

I am already looking forward to the exchange between the only honorable man in Congress, Ron Paul and these crooks.

Paribus writes:
Nova writes:

Houston, as Char said, the US 4th largest city is still without power.


73% of Houston has power. I can't believe the facts were distorted by a poster on this site.

Wow, maybe I got it wrong. Thanks.

For our amusement. And I am trying not to be a partisan here. But one needs to be careful when turning

from finance deregulation advocate/co-dependent to anti-wall street populist.

September 23, 2008, 8:13 pm
Wall Street Journal

McCain Gets More Questions on Fiorina’s HP Pay Package

Matthew Dolan reports on the presidential campaign.

John McCain has been quick to criticize the lucrative payouts for the heads of bailed-out mortgage lenders at Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. But for the second time in as many days, the Republican presidential nominee declined to apply the same principle to his campaign’s high-profile economic adviser.

After touring a solar power panel factory in rural, Freeland, Mich., a reporter asked McCain Tuesday if his campaign economic adviser, Carly Fiorina, who once led Hewlett Packard Co. but was forced to step down, should give back any portion of her golden parachute. McCain quickly drew a distinction between HP and the mortgage lenders he singled out, calling them quasi-governmental lenders.

“Carly Fiorina is a role model to millions of American women,” McCain said pointing out that she rose from working as a part-time secretary to heading HP. He added: “I’m proud of her record.”

McCain had been asked about Fiorina’s compensation package in an interview Monday on NBC-TVs Today Show. “I think she did a good job as CEO in many respects,” he said, adding: “I don’t know the details of her compensation package but she is one of many advisers that I have.”

McCain Gets More Questions on Fiorina’s HP Pay Package - Washington Wire - WSJ


I might add I have two Fiorina vintage
HP notebooks...pieces of crap...coincidence or not? Should have stayed with Toshiba. Spouse went to Apple. Apple nice. Very nice.

"Ron Paul and these crooks."

I hope Ron brings his own bazooka.

Any action of this kind needs to be put off until there is a new administration who will be around to shoulder the responsibility for it . No one with connections to the industry should be involved with get . Get a panel from academia with people like Roubini ,

I've said it before and I'll say it again:

This bill isn't going to pass.

Mel, to big of a headache, but thanks!

Best to all.

That's ok CR, I get swamped with emails too. Mostly for Cialis, but some others as well.

Thanks CR and Tanta. This is a wonderful public service you are providing in very interesting times. Love your blog.

Calculated Risk writes:
Mel, to big of a headache, but thanks!

Best to all.

You could get Tanta and Krugman to help--and work on commission,

CSC,

First verse as I have it:

Investment Bank bankers have always been a real close family

But lately some of my kinfolk, have stolen from the kit-ty

I guess that's because, I kinda changed my position

Lord I guess my promotion triggered their banking tradition.

Nostroiva,

CR

thank you for your service. You deserve veterans benefits

BTW, re: gas shortages, its not just Atlanta and Nashville ... I had to drive to 3 gas stations in Durham, NC tonight to get 87 octane.

This doesn't seem to be reported very much outside of Atlanta for the supply situation in the Southeast is bad. Much worse than considering that its reported that the Houston refineries are fine.

These all come back to why the "PLAN" is not going to work. I can not think of any worse group of leaders except for the French General staff in 1914 - 1917.

Or perhaps French General Maginot's staff... André Maginot

iceman

it's extremely sporadic here in Atlanta. Today seems to be worse.

There seems to be a considerable effort to downplay it to avoid panic buying....seems some brands are harder hit than others.

Comrade Misean: LOL. Freaking awesome.

would "nation's kit-ty" be better meter?

This is the first verse.

I recall a few back-and-forth comments that sums up my view of Ron Paul:

1: I can't wait for Ron Paul's questions.

2: Ron Paul asks questions?

Krugman was on the Nightly News - good showing by the Dr.

Thanks for calling out Paulson and Bernake for trying to pass us gargabe - you're still my favorite popular economist for 9 yrs running.

This isn't over until a city burns,
DJ

Ron Paul better burn a bowl before the hearing. That Patriot is going to blow his top.

God I can't wait.

LET'S WALK THE TALK.

One single question should be made to Paulson and Bernanke tomorrow, while they are on national TV.

If you are so convinced that this is THE best possible move, then let's make a deal: I will buy all your assets (not your retirement funds, but simply your assets), and pay you with the very same toxic assets, at 50% face value, that you want Uncle Sam to buy. If your plan is good for Uncle Sam, it must be good for your personal assets.

Would you sell? deal or no deal?

It is that simple.

I am an American taxpayer, and I approve this message.

ew thread! with VIDEO!!!!!

CSC,

would "nation's kit-ty" be better meter?

Like it...no need for dash then to emphasize second syllable

Investment Bank bankers have always been a real close family

But lately some of my kinfolk, have stolen from the nations kitty

I guess that's because, I kinda changed my position

Lord I guess my promotion triggered their banking tradition.

Nostrovia,

There continues to be lots of loose talk here about "The Bill" or "The Plan" or "The Bailout."

In fact, there are several bills/plans/bailouts that have been proposed in this episode.

The Paulson was the first one proffered, but it as dead as Hank is bald and dishonest.

It is clear as day that the bill that will be considered in the House is the Barney Frank bill, or what might better be called the Frank/Dodd bill. Contrary to Paulson's wet-dreams, that will include oversight, cramdowns in bankruptcy, equity stakes, compensation limits, claw backs, and maybe it will even provide funds in stages, as Schumer and others requested today.

Now some of you might think that is just as bad as Paulson's plan, or worse, or so slightly better that it is insignificant - but it is not the same as the Paulson plan, and it is clear that many folks think it is a whole lot better.

My view: It isn't perfect. Perfect would be Swedish style nationalization and impeachment and a few other things. But you can't always get what you want . . . but if you try real sometimes you can get what you need.

1: I can't wait for Ron Paul's questions.

2: Ron Paul asks questions?

Persecuted Comrade Anonymouse | Homepage | 09.23.08 - 10:09 pm |

I am a big Ron Paul fan but its true he is more about chastising than asking questions.

I've just written my Congressman and Senators to urge them to oppose the bailout. It probably won't help, because the fix is in.
The only hope in stopping this disaster is to delay it for a while, but the banksters are pushing for an emergency vote. They'll throw in some goodies to the Democrats and it will sail through.

Threesome: Goldman + Buffet + Wells Fargo

sorry for reposting from an earlier thread:

Really, this is not a difficult problem. You had several trillion of
securities issued based on home values of 2 times X, and the underlying real estate is now worth X. The reason you cannot reset the bonds to their proper value is that contracts have been drawn up stating that the collateral value is 2X, so bondholders are freaking out along with various Bush officials. The ultimate crooks here are the bondholders, who did not do sufficient due diligence before extending credit. They should not be
bailed out or if so only at a loss. They are the ones who should suffer
the writedowns, but contract law has to be amended to allow short sales to
be "passed through". This idea would contradict the 10th amendment and would get tried in court, but so will everything else.

A possible alternative to "rejection" is "smaller spending authority" than HP has sought.

He won't be able to value $700B of assets quickly, so a smaller initial authority, say $140B, would get him started and would allow Congress to evaluate the effect of the intial "tranche" on the markets. If it works well, give him more. If it doesn't work, use the additional money in some other way or not at all.

I just wrote Senators and Congressman, but doubt it can be noticed. But surely there are people in Congress who can think. This seems a pretty obvious compromise between constituent unease and Treasury/Fed panic.

CR,
Just take the rest of the week off. Nothing much going on anyway.

Puppet congress pretending to do their job confronting Wall Street manipulators just trying to get paid.

What's new?

This immediate crisis is Paulson’s and Bernanke’s doing. Fire them.

The best solution is Karl Denninger’s found at FedUpUSA.

Protect the America budget! No more debt.

"I'm thinking this$700 billion largess should be controlled by someone other than Paulson or BB"

Well... ya.
Paulson will only be there 4 months AT MOST.

"I can't wait for Ron Paul's questions."

It isn't the questions... it's the votes. Politicians can scream and yell and then vote yes, like they've done every time they were asked to authorize a war.

iceman writes:
I'm going to go out on a huge limb here and guess that thing doesn't pass.

I don't think that's such a huge limb, iceman.

If you buy what CR says and just about everybody here agrees to, that this is just a disguised way to funnel money to banks and recapitalize, then what?

What's the upside for Paulson and Bernanke to press ahead with so much handcuffs and oversight that they can't buy high and hold low?

They might go to Plan B, and here's what I think it is. They are withdrawing Plan A based on valid suggestions by Congress, the public, etc, and they will resubmit it later, blah, blah. Meanwhile, they are introducing new liquidity facilities, international injections, individual bank buy-ups and bailouts, a rate cut, etc.

Anything to keep the markets afloat another few weeks.

People need to get out on the street in Washington and protest! Isn't there anyone organizing a demonstration?

I can not think of any worse group of leaders except for the French General staff in 1914 - 1917.

And they had a mutiny too.

No deal unless the taxpayer gets first reward on up side.

Run repro's from the fed window to keep the decrepit financial sector running until the new congress and next administration.

No need to rush in and bankrupt the kids' country.

Let the next congress deal with the mess.

Nobody writes:
I've said it before and I'll say it again: This bill isn't going to pass.

Maybe this "thing" isn't even going to become a bill.

why is nemo always first...its like groundhog day in every thread.

If you want to have an impact - call your Congressman - the vote will be closer in the House.

You have go to be kidding... my rep is dumber than a potted plant. I have called my senators though... they are a little more responsive - I think.

ok wb gets ten percent returns on senior preferred
But the taxpayer gets the return of zero on the equity tranche for our five Billion.
If we are going to put up seven hundred billion then we get ten percent preferred. We get warrants to get freebie options.
Wonder why wb took this deal instead of buying goldmans garbage assets? Bc he is an investor not a loser.
And by the way if the us had done the deal wb just pulled the stock and the whole market would have tanked.

Thank God.

Things seem to be slowing down.

I think that the congressmen/women are listening. Actually had the ear of my rep's financial staffer today and drove home the points about the currency. He seemed to think that the world ends if Paulson doesn't go through...but he listened and asked cogent, pointed questions. Yes, I'm aware and I'll take the depression, thank you. Just save the currency or you'll impoverish future generations.

People are worked up - rightfully so - about the exec compensation. But the killer is the very potent downside to the currency.

This rep is also on the China oversight committee (whatever the name is...) and I can only imagine what he's been hearing from that end. If anyone's divulging.

We'll see.

Comrade CSC,
I am very proud of my I-Banks gain
Although this kinda profit and mine ain’t exactly the same.

Stop and think it over
Put yourself in my position.
If I get a TARP and sing all night long it’s a banking tradition.

Nosotrvia,

Any legislation Congress passes will merely be an enabling act for Bush's signing statement. The choice is to pass Paulson's original plan, or have Bush impose it via signing statement. Which is no choice.

Not passing anything denies Bush the opportunity to impose his will via signing statement.

But as doing nothing is not tenable, the only realistic choice is to impeach Bush, impeach Cheney & install Pelosi as acting president.

Is it possible? Yes. When it became clear Nixon would be impeached, his vp, Spiro Agnew, was railroaded out of town in a matter of days, or so it seems, as he was clearly unfit to become president. It's the same situation now.

why is nemo always first...its like groundhog day in every thread.

Lehman raising money again http://cgi.ebay.com/LEHMAN-BROTHERS-OPERATING-CUBE_W0QQitemZ320300860741QQcmdZViewItem?hash=item320300860741&_trkparms=72%3A1205|39%3A1|66%3A2|65%3A12|240%3A1318&_trksid=p3286.c0.m14

I predict that Ron Paul gives 'em hell! Go get 'em Ron!

Suppose Buffett Goldman Sachs will buy up WaMu on Friday?

Warren Buffett invested $5B into Goldman Sachs today.

For his cash, he received perpetuity preferred shares w/10% dividend, plus $5B more in options priced at 8% below the close.

Can anyone here explain why if a bank like Goldman is stable enough for the world's pickiest investor to put money in today, why we need to give $700 billion of taxpayer money for free, no strings, no dividends, no equity, no options?

If Warren would up his investment to $7B, we'd only need to find 99 more private investors like him and we'd be at $700 billion. Or we can give half of 2007's personal income tax from every taxpayer in america to the banks for free.

Outrageous. This crisis is a sham.

I thought this would happen to the USA
but down the track about twenty years.
No manufacturing base.Not good...
The defence budget will have to be cut in half.

It is over...

GS buy WM clean deposits after FDIC takes all the Toxic Crap.
This will take care of most of FDIC's cash.
So big thursday/friday scare tacit for Washington is WM goes TU and FDIC is now out of money.
Now main street is scared because FDIC was suppossed to insure their deposits and it is now out of money. Now we get a possible run on the banks.
Bill gets passed by Monday.

I got my popcorn ready for Ron Paul. He needs to go postal on these idiots.

My money says no agreement is reached on this bailout. The politicians are concerned about getting reelected, and this bill is highly unpopular with the voters.

The emails, faxes and calls are working.

I might add I have two Fiorina vintage
HP notebooks...pieces of crap...coincidence or not? Should have stayed with Toshiba. Spouse went to Apple. Apple nice. Very nice.
Comrade FallonPDX

I bought a top of the line HP Pavilon laptop to house my ITunes. It stutters worse than a Secretary of Treasury. Thanks Carly.

I now own a Mac. It works.

I'll never buy another HP computer again!!!

ou have go to be kidding... my rep is dumber than a potted plant.

Yeah but I think most of them can count, and with enough calls maybe they'd get the idea that they might get tossed out in Nov.

TRUST ME....this will pass no problem. This is all a smokescreen to simply make it look like they are doing something...

They are doing nothing. None of these people are in the dark per say...they know what's going on alot more than any of us on this blog know.

It'll pass with flying colors.

It's amazing....just a year ago, this administration didn't have the money to assist schools from closing so children can get proper education...a mere $100 million or so...

But somehow, they can find $700Billion..

Wake up people...you're all a bunch of sheep and getting screwed. Talking won't do crap...it's action that'll change history.

Here is a letter I sent to my congressman.

Dear Sir,

With respect I want to submit to you that using tax payer money to bailout selected financial companies should be opposed vigorously for the following reasons

1) It was this administration's lack of oversight on mortgage practices that created gigantic bubble.

2) There were enough economists warning about the fallout since 2002 but neither Mr. Greenspan nor his successor Mr. Bernanke paid any attention. In fact Mr. Greenspan encourage people to use ARM as affordability innovation!

3) When these companies were making money hand over fist no one said that they should share their windfall with taxpayers.

4) There is no transparency in the plan how this 700B bailout is supposed to work. Since the crisis started appearing FED/Treasurey has done all sorts of easing and emergency lending which has not worked. Why should be trust Paulson and Bernanke now.

5) While all this was going on, President Bush and his administration kept saying that US economy is sound and strong. Either they were clueless or lying. We cannot believe they suddenly know what to do with 700B.

6) If anything we should be asking Paulson, Bernanke and President Bush to resign for bringing such avoidable calamity to our nation.

Regards.

A government intervention should lead to at least the following outcomes:

  • Transparency regarding what toxic crap so called expert financial institutions generated, so we can tell the strong and effective firms from the weak, short-sighted, and ineffective ones.
  • The ineffective firms all go out of business and the strong and effective ones take their market share.
  • A large number of Jas' so called "crooks" are prosecuted in court for misleading their investors and customers.
  • The Wall Street culture that was buiding since the 1980s is recognized as a stain on the american character, along with Greenspan's idiotic philosophies and policies.
  • Bubbles and ponzi schemes are as well recognized as a stain on american know-how and sustainable prosperity.
  • We "suffer" through a two year deep recesion to remind us that we can take it.
  • Those who bought homes they couldn't afford lose their homes and become renters until they repair their credit.
  • Savings rates and federal deficits reverse their recent course.
  • Government investment programs in energy and infrastructure become our largest budget item, above defense.
  • Home prices return to affordability according to the fundamentals of comparison to rents and annual household income.

Folks, we need a "dark night of the soul" in america so we can get clean and then ante up for major culture change.

Anything else the government pansies feel like doing, I'm against because I have two kids and I don't want my legacy to be "you and your generation screwed us over."

satan: France still has some guillotines in storage. Perhaps they can put them on a cargo plane bound for New York. Heads need to roll on Wall Street...

Why not nationalize/clean-slate the system? Run it, for the time being, with intelligent beings who actually believe the words "comin' outta their mouths"?

Could they do a worse job than these current jokers? We're talking about a crew that has just destroyed a national financial system.

Just asking.

Buffett's deal makes Paulson and Bewrnanke look really, really stupid. I predict you'll hear a lot about that today.

What it does is clearly show that Paulson and Bernanke are doing a giveaway of something that people would be more than willing to pay for... and arguing that there is no option. WEB has called BS on that.

Buffet's actions bear no relationship to what is going on for the rest of us.

He has the money to weather ups and downs.

And you can bet your life on it that he has information regarding Goldman Sachs that you and I will never have...perhaps for at least a year.

He's got inside information, he's got fore-knowledge, he's got infinite amounts of wealth, help, and assistance to help him decide.

So what Buffet does and us judging what things are going to do is just stupid.

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