Did anyone notice how he was referring to much of the housing related fiasco (current equity below purchase price). Isn't much of this still not going on?
and watch our expenditures." And that could lead to a deeper recession.
I don't think it will lead to a deeper recession. China and the emerging markets may feel a deeper squeeze, but I think it helps the U.S. Negative savings may create an illusion of prosperity, but it will always be temporary.
Anyone else wonder what happens if/when commercial real estate goes bad? Minyanville likes to say the FED/Treasury has 2 bullets left and the last one will be pointed at themsleves, so was this bill the second to last bullet?
Methinks Biden will stick his foot so far down his throat in the next few weeks, and Barnie Frank will come out such a hero that Obama will replace Biden with Frank....Go Barnie...I've been impressed.
The chairman of the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday said it is "clear" there will be enough votes to pass a broad Wall Street bailout bill.
Bush inherited an economy teetering on recession in 2001. Rather than do the right thing and allow us to take our medicine, he and the other asshats in NYC and DC did everything they could to inflate this imaginary economy to the breaking point. In some very small, inexplicable way, I find it very satisfying that the whole thing should go down on his watch. Whoever wins the election in November will go down as the sucker of the (relatively young) century.
Honestly, I'm encouraged. He didn't declare martial law and postpone the elections. All he did was parrot precisely the stuff Paulson and Bernake have been saying for two days.
How Bush think he can inspire anyone to do anything after his track record for the last eight years is beyond me.
I just want to know if an effective tax-payer revolt could be set up if this bailout passes and corporations and individuals you made bad/greedy decisions get off the hook at the expense of those of use who were responsible and didn't overextend ourselves and our families.
Anyone else up for the tax-payer revolt of '08-'09? We could call it the Wall Street Derivatives Party.
Translation: "If we told you how deeply we screwed this up, you'd all really get unhinged. Let us manage the repair of the system. We know what's wrong now."
Well, I'll go out and do right what you say Great Leader
Please.
Go get hit by a bus and do the world a favor. As if anyone listens to a word he says anymore. The Freakin nerve trying to pass the blame to congress if they 'don't help the American People'
Zeus writes:
Did anyone notice how he was referring to much of the housing related fiasco (current equity below purchase price). Isn't much of this still not going on?
Yes. There are alot of loans with up to date LTV's greater than 100. Most are in CA and FL where in certain zips houses have fallen 100%. Interestingly even when homeowners have negative equity whether they default or go delinq. depends on whether they put money in originally. For example if a person had and 80% LTV and house prices fell 30% they'd have negative equity. But take the same person but one who took out an 80% LTV loan with a 15% heloc to pay the down payment and the default rates are tremendously different.
I'm not sure if this speech will motivate people to call their representatives, but it might motivate people that haven't been paying attention to say: "Wow, this is bad. Let's make sure our money is safe, and watch our expenditures." And that could lead to a deeper recession.
While I agree that this will likely have an impact, my personal opinion is that it is small. What freaks people out is simple: jobs, and the fear of losing one's job.
You think the US economy is going to recover now that we are past the global peak of oil production? Too much financial thinking, too little big picture thinking.
ah but this is a wonderful scam thankfully run for the citizens benefit...buy cheap assets, inflate the dollar so that even the scariest assets turn a profit and pay off our creditors with cents on the dollar. Will take a couple of years but in the meantime, borrow all you can to buy hard assets..even houses..and hold on for the ride.
If they could put together a set of visual aids and
links to real time data showing in J6P terms why they think the economy is dead in a week, that would be helpful.
Tim Auld writes:
"And that could lead to a deeper recession."
You think the US economy is going to recover now that we are past the global peak of oil production? Too much financial thinking, too little big picture thinking.
Tim Auld | 09.24.08 - 9:57 pm |
Thats been my exact thought on this for the past year.
screwed up the last sentence in a previous post. sorry.
Zeus writes:
Did anyone notice how he was referring to much of the housing related fiasco (current equity below purchase price). Isn't much of this still not going on?
Yes. There are alot of loans with up to date LTV's greater than 100. Most are in CA and FL where in certain zips houses have fallen so LTVs are greater than 100%.
He is just trying to panic people. And we are going to have "...rising foreclosures, lost jobs, closed business and "a long and painful recession." if they pass the Paulson proposal or not. The question is are we going to piss away $700 BILLION dollars bailing out his fat cat friends. Heaven forbid they should live with the consequences of their own folly and greed.
It is interesting that Asia and the futures are getting stronger on the speech. On the other hand, Buffet's deal had everyone giddy overnight as well...
There was too much money lent out and too much crddit extended so we get out of this mess by....giving the banks more money to lend and to extend more credit with? Backed by the taxpayer?
Nor Car writes:
Any chance the bill does not pass?
sm_landlord beat me to it. But I'll add that I think it's already been priced into both the equity and credit markets; nowhere to go but down (kinda complete opposite of what's intended)
ac- I agree. Seems a lot like the WMD/Gotta do something big now speech v2 so his banking/finance buddies can get even richer like Iraq helped his oil buddies rake it in.
and Dan-in-PA, I head another metion that the White House addmitted today they have been formulating a plan for this for months and only now they spring in on us the week before Congress is supposed to adjorn for the elections? That's way fishy also. Anyone have anymore detial on this? I ran a search but couldn't find anything.
Dan - After Bushasses speech I am hitting the wine pretty heavy tonight, so don't feel bad, I am sure we are not alone!
Well, if people do cash out their stocks and equity mutual funds, a lot that cash will probably go to money-market funds which will buy commercial paper, which will help (big) companies operate.
Of course, to cash out requires that there be buyers for the stock, and that the mutual funds have cash to exchange for redeemed shares.
Yeah, it could be ugly. Buckle up.
Perhaps the entire economy will deleverage the hard way.
Could there be executive orders waiting to be promulgated to implement the HP plan without Congressional approval? Declaration of state of emergency?
Bush came far closer to telling the truth than I expected. But he called the $700 billion "the solution," when it's just a bigger version of what they've already tried. And he blamed it on Clinton; "For more than a decade..." Oh, and he failed to mention the 2 million or so Alt-A resets that are coming up soon. There's no amount of money that can prevent that.
I want to show a few of you what firesale prices mean. I have access to a sh*tload of resources on how to analyze, and uncover the collateral behind many of these securities. I can show you where this stuff clears and why there is a difference between fire-sale and fair value/htm value. How to set something like this up dunno.
There sure are alot of Comrades around here. I had no idea Comrades were so well versed in the workings of the free market. Then again, neither are the capitalists these days.
How long until one of the countless government owned homes gets sold to a congressional staffer for $1, then he flips it for $250,000 at our expense? 1 Month? 3 months? Over/under?
I dunno. In watching the talking head shows, from CNN to Fox, the consensus is this is a universal bad idea. As I said, you have Barney Frank and Newt Gingrich both opposing this. You can't get a more broad based condemnation than that.
The problem is most of the sample letters I have seen people sending to congress are that they oppose this bail out. So now they are just going to amend it and pass it anyway. We need to make it clear that we oppose ANY bailout using taxpayer money. Let the banks and FED figure it out. I don't think this has really been made clear to congress.
For the newbies to the discussion, the speech tonight will have them running to their bank tomorrow. "Is it that bad? Must get our money out of the bank!"
"...Barney Frank and Newt Gingrich both opposing this. You can't get a more broad based condemnation than that."
That's narrower than it looks. What you have is two fairly extreme types opposing, but the sheep in the middle will push this through in some form because they are scared.
It won't start off that way however as news spreads about the lines at the banks it will gather momentum and it will be shut off into the close and not re-open.
Then the real fun begins. Using that as leverage to pass the bill as it is with the mantra of "see I told you so".
Barney Frank (good old male escort brothel running Barney!) is having a meeting with the house financial committe to orrow at 10am, and the president is meeting with Obama and McCain at 10am, both discussing what to do. Should be interesting.
Cr writes... "but it might motivate people that haven't been paying attention"
When I was watching, I'm thinking "This whole thing going back to last week is Heisenberg uncertainty principle", meaning that there has to be some measure of economic activity simply as a result of folks waiting for the new rules.
And I don't know what Barney Frank is talking about, I have watched all the hearings and he wants some form of bailout, its called the Dodd/Frank plans, it's still taxpayer money and it is going to pass. What is he opposing exactly?
I'm ignorant of 'blogging, but I believe that it is not difficult to set up a personal website/blog for free at sites such as blogspot.com (which hosts CR)
" BEIJING, Sept 25 (Reuters) - Chinese regulators have told domestic banks to stop interbank lending to U.S. financial institutions to prevent possible losses during the financial crisis, the South China Morning Post reported on Thursday.
The Hong Kong newspaper cited unidentified industry sources as saying the instruction from the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) applied to interbank lending of all currencies to U.S. banks but not to banks from other countries.
"The decree appears to be Beijing's first attempt to erect defences against the deepening U.S. financial meltdown after the mainland's major lenders reported billions of U.S. dollars in exposure to the credit crisis," the SCMP said.
A spokesman for the CBRC had no immediate comment. "
Youtube of Letterman's reaction to the McCain no show is up on KOS. It's pretty awesome, all nine minutes of it. I assume they will edit it down a little for tonight.
So, John McCain has reportedly paid more than $5,500 to Tifanie White, the makeup artist who works on "American Idol," for similar cosmetic services. It is yet another incident of a politician -- regardless of ideological stripe -- coughing up a lot of money for the sake of good looks. McCain's $5,000 Makeup: Will There Be Backlash?
You retards don't understand. Inflation is the GOAL of this program. It puts a floor under housing and commercial RE. If they can cause massive inflation (10%/year). House prices can only crash another 10% in nominal terms and the bottom will be in. Weakening the dollar will also solve the problem with outsourcing and production. It will no longer be profitable to do either outside the country. Our standard of living will decline until we meet the Chinese on their way up. THEN THE RISING TIDE WILL LIFT ALL BOATS. But the recession and market/RE crash in REAL TERMS is unavoidable. They just want to trick the morons into continuing to think the stock market and RE and debt in general is good.
""This whole thing going back to last week is Heisenberg uncertainty principle""
Actually Brownian motion. Lots of heat cause the particles to bang against each other at a furious rate. The appearance of activity but not much motion - heat, noise, but no motion yet.
Simple if you are a 1099 you make sure you don't pay taxes. There are several ways to do this however space dictates that I don't go into them (and so does whoever is watching too)
Paying taxes from here on out is a sucker's game. I understand many of you have no choice but for those that do you know how to "make it so"
Check out C-Span 2, the head of the Congressional Budget office is on. He sounds like he knows what he is talking about, and has been making some very good points
Shrub's other nut- couldn't really interpret the response. I am open to show a select few a what I'm talking about. This is not a 20/20 publication I'm offering.
Maybe we need a "long and painful recession". Trying so hard to avoid recession for the last 20 years is what go us into this mess. I was hoping that they were going to come up with a better one than that for the dark and evil danger lurking right around the corner.
Clinton and GHWB are supporting the bail-out. $700 billion to buy garbage, issue fat government contracts to asset managers to hold the garbage until the market returns to "normal" - which it can never do because it was peak bubble garbage. Peak Garbage. And the big new lie is that the $700 billion will be paid back as the Peak Garbage recovers and is sold.
I am trying to find real time sources for reactions to the speech from regular people - not media, not politicians. CR is great, but is there a similar source for "the other side"? Almost everybody posting here sees things the same way (correctly of course)...
Any suggestions?
"How long until one of the countless government owned homes gets sold to a congressional staffer for $1, then he flips it for $250,000 at our expense? 1 Month? 3 months? Over/under?"
It already happens. When I lived in DC, my soon-to-be roomate got wind they were shutting down the Kentucky Courts housing project in SE DC. He bought a row-house across the street. We lived in it a year, then he sold for $300k, approx 120% what he paid... This was 2001-ish.
sandito writes:
CR - totally agree. GWB could cause a bank run tomorrow or a giant sucking sound as Americans pull out their stock money
I missed the speech. But the headlines are f'ing scary enough.
We might be congradulating each other from the breadline on our foresight... ugh. I still think we can get out of this with a deep recession... but hope is slipping.
"I'm not sure if this speech will motivate people to call their representatives, but it might motivate people that haven't been paying attention to say: "Wow, this is bad. Let's make sure our money is safe, and watch our expenditures.""
But that's what people should do. Be financially prudent and live within their means. Save money. How many of us really need any more of the crap that fills up our malls? Frugal is good.
"If we want to become a socialist country then elect a socialist leader. We don't even get to vote for socialism, we just get it."
Heck they can't even do socialism right. Socialism is when the government seizes the assets of the wealthy for the (alleged) benefit of the proletariat; now we have the assets of the proles being seized for the benefit of the capitalist! We may have to invent a new word for that. Or maybe just use the F-word.
Bush mentioned MBS, but didn't say that the financial institutions leveraged these instruments to ridiculous levels (and that leverage limits were in effect removed for five of the biggest firms (three of which have now failed already), nor did he say that CDS's were left completely unregulated, nor did he mention that his appointees were busy deregulating or preventing better regulation of the financial industry. No harms were committed on his watch, he wants us to believe.
Bullcrap. Notice also that Bush's speech was done in the Imperial Hallway leading to the East Room, and not the Oval Office.
Not once did he say that they have been planning this bailout for months and sprung it on the Congress about to adjourn (like Iraq resolution, Patriot Act, etc.). This time however, his 'shock and awe', do it tomorrow or else approach hasn't worked so well. All hat, no horse has been exposed again.
Assuming that just putting a team together to actually execute this bill (whatever it becomes) will take well in 2009, Congress should only actually appropriate 10% of the $700 billion now, and hold 90% to see if any of Paulson's magic potion is going to work.
MS- that attitude about taxes (I'm gonna get mine) is what got us into this mess. If you've followed this even somewhat carefully, you should have made a small fortune over the past two years. I don't mind sharing a bit of the winnings with society- god knows they'll need it.
The panel arranging the U.S. presidential debates said Wednesday night John McCain and Barack Obama should go at it Friday despite the financial market crisis.
The non-partisan Commission on Presidential Debates said in a statement it was "moving forward" with plans for the first presidential debate to be held at the University of Mississippi in Oxford, Miss., The New York Times (NYSE:NYT) reported.
"The plans for this forum have been under way for more than a year and a half," the commission noted. "The (commission's) mission is to provide a forum in which the American public has an opportunity to hear the leading candidates for the president of the United States debate the critical issues facing the nation. We believe the public will be well served by having all of the debates go forward as scheduled."
You retards don't understand. Inflation is the GOAL of this program. It puts a floor under housing and commercial RE. If they can cause massive inflation (10%/year). House prices can only crash another 10% in nominal terms and the bottom will be in. Weakening the dollar will also solve the problem with outsourcing and production. It will no longer be profitable to do either outside the country. Our standard of living will decline until we meet the Chinese on their way up. THEN THE RISING TIDE WILL LIFT ALL BOATS. But the recession and market/RE crash in REAL TERMS is unavoidable. They just want to trick the morons into continuing to think the stock market and RE and debt is good.
SRC: this is valuable info so I'm not trying to broadcast to the worl, ie. somewhat of a competive adv. I'm not trying to blast it out.
Just offered the opportunity for a few of the biggest critics to see a different view on how this stuff is working out in the cap mkts.
Funny now that I think about it maybe Paulson and Bernanke should pick a specific security and show what they mean rather than speak so obtusely about firesale mktval vs htm value... i have a ton of examples.
The way Bush tells it, the cause of the current crisis is foreign investors kept investing too much money in this country, leading to too much money being lent to consumers, who then spent too much on houses. He conveniently skips one of the key causes: too much deregulation and not an appropriate amount of oversight.
The Democratic led Congress did what in the last 2 years to save us ?
JMK | 09.24.08 - 10:04 pm | #
Exactly how many Democrats are there in the Senate, how many GOP? Answer 49-49 with 2 independents. Ok, I'll give ya Sanders as a Dem, Leiberman, not so much. How many votes does it take to over ride a veto? How many votes does it take to invoke closure? The GOP was involved in more fillabusters in the last 2 years than any other single congress in the history of the nation.
This "do nothing Congress" line of attack by GOP hacks convineintly ignores the fact that it is the GOP that has done everythig possible to prevent congress from actually doing anything. Of course when the GOP was in charge and the Dems tried to Filibuster, the GOP tried to eliminate 215 years of tradition in the Senate and eliminate the Filibuster.
What they figure is getting back to the nominal price. They do that with inflation. With enough inflation, it won't be long until the median house price -- anywhere in the country -- is at least 300K. It's like the Dow tricksters were so happy when the Dow recently got back to where it was before the dotcom mess. The Iraq war guaranteed future inflation. The 700B bailout will make it even greater.
This is a re-post from the prior thread. For those that didn't see it, Megremis offered to spend $50K of his/her own money to organize a march to oppose the bailout.
Megremis:
First, let me congratulate you for your patriotism and selflessness. It's been some time since I've seen this in such vivid relief. You inspired me.
Next: you need instant-ness. Think about radio spots or people handing out flyers at metro-rail stops in DC or NYC. Think Republican churches. The Repubs are opposed to the bailout, and they can mobilize FAST.
Hook into organizations that already exist, and can mobilize quickly - already have e-mail lists, already have relationship to action-oriented members. Think labor unions, small business association, AARP - get on the phone to big orgs that are opposed to this - and get them to mobilize their people. Hire a PR exec that knows the decision-makers at these big orgs. I can't supply names, but I bet there's other people on this list that can.
Above all, the strategy needs to concentrate on speed, and that means radio. Consider doing your own voice. Your message is really convincing because you don't seem "coached" and you are putting up your own $$. This is going to get people's attn. Also, consider putting your story out to the local TV stations - this is truly newsworthy, they might bite on it.
Best I can do on the spur of the moment. feel free to e-mail if I can be of further assist.
outerbeltway at yahoo dot com
To Jas Jain: here's somebody that's taking a swing at the problem. Will you donate some $$ to get the job done? You seem like you're a both a strategic thinker and action-oriented. I'll put in some hours if you'll put in some $$
Anyone else in a position to put in time or $$ ??
Got better ideas how to apply pressure that may not necessarily be via a march? Speak up. Vote's in two or less days.
Bush did comment that the plan was to buy assets "at the current low price", seemingly contradicting the comments from Bernanke and Paulson earlier today that they would buy at above the current "fire sale" prices.
Bush states that current prices are low, implying that the time to buy them is now.
BandP say they'll pay more than the real value of the toxic assets out there, and they need the money to do it now.
It's not contradictory, it's just some speechwriter's idea of passing a baldfaced lie as technical truth. Bush and his handlers just tried to convince taxpayers that they're really getting a great deal on these things, and that the taxpayer can only watch these assets grow, grow, grow to save the economy! Meanwhile, BandP are gearing up to buy overpriced assets to the tune of hundreds of billions to... save the economy.
Bush is fronting for a bunch of cheap con men taking everyone for an expensive ride, and Mr. "I Ran Several Companies Into the Ground So I Gets To Be The CEO Preznit" probably doesn't even realize it.
Under the pressure of the financial crisis, one presidential candidate is behaving like a flustered rookie playing in a league too high. It is not Barack Obama.
Channeling his inner Queen of Hearts, John McCain furiously, and apparently without even looking around at facts, said Chris Cox, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, should be decapitated. This childish reflex provoked the Wall Street Journal to editorialize that "McCain untethered" -- disconnected from knowledge and principle -- had made a "false and deeply unfair" attack on Cox that was "unpresidential" and demonstrated that McCain "doesn't understand what's happening on Wall Street any better than Barack Obama does."
An oz is $350 ? You're kidding right? If not, I'm glad I was a kid in the 70's and not today...
More to the point - the bailout will pass. Don't bother with the cards and letters. The Dems already have their version of the plan, and now it's just about reconciling a few deal points. Probably done by Friday so McCain can go down to Mississippi for the debate.
What I meant to say is that if you ever overpay for anything, you will have overpaid for it forever, regardless of whether inflation makes it "worth more."
Oxford, MS and Ole Miss spent $5 mil of somebodies money in preparation for for the debate. The town is filling up now. Quite a hit to the area if it gets cancelled.
The first thought that came to my mind while Bush was droning on and on was a memory of this kid in the 9th grade who was running a craps game scam before classes.
How much is a trillion dollars? $1 Trillion will buy 178,571 POUNDS of CSC's bud... Scary.
Hmmm.. all this weed talk. What about legalization? Tons of tax revenue and people sitting at home not driving and spending more than they can pay back... Just a thought...
If there is no campaign, and all hell is breaking loose, you can't have an election. The people will not have had a fair chance to assess their candidates.
Was in your neck o the woods the last few days. Went up to St. Helens on Sat. saw nothing...socked in completely. Was out at The race track(PIR) on Monday rained a little bit.
Sorry about the flipness of the kb comment, not really thinking about the area. 350/O probably is a decent price, given the higher COL. But man, I'd be putting the pressure on for 3 if I was at all regular.
The stupid ass squandered all his credibility with his lies about the Iraq war. Nobody forgets that and nobody with any sense trusts him any more. He's shot his wad; he's a has been liar. So it doesn't make much difference what he says. At least not to me.
ac- I agree. Seems a lot like the WMD/Gotta do something big now speech v2 so his banking/finance buddies can get even richer like Iraq helped his oil buddies rake it in.
I'm more concerned with the practical matters of Bush's track record:
The actions he advocates generally lead to poor outcomes.
The simple fact that GWB says we need this bailout is the most damning strike against it. His recommendation should be a glaring warning sign to people that it might make things significantly worse instead of better.
You retards don't understand. Inflation is the GOAL of this program. It puts a floor under housing and commercial RE
Um, we got it. But the more glaring reason is reducing the value of the national debt. I mean how brilliant is that. Get the slant-eyes to fund our party and then undercut the value of what they lent us by half? God, effing brilliance and utter immoral clap, given that the burden falls as a tax on the middle to lower american classes.
Floors under asset prices is an accidental follow-on.
I thought Bush looked terrible.Not that I'm sympathetic.
He raised the white flag. it really was amazing to watch. Agreed to bi-partisan over-sight; Control of CEO compensation; Increased regulation and even current market valuation
The only concession of the "big four" I did not hear was an agreement to trade equity for cash.
Byz: No flipness received. Top Kush in West LA goes for $90 1/8 in the medical community. OC lacks any good medical presence, so the "guys" get more for the kgb.
Long Beach is cheaper, but OC has held here for about 5 years or so.
(I've been in over a hundred dispensaries throughout the state, and the quality/price varies regionally/by strain.)
manu06 writes:
Can't get into Denninger's site now.
Karl basically accused BB of purposely draining the liquidity out of the system to force banks closures and the present crisis, to further the need for this bailout.
AS far as protests go.......what can we left coaster's do???
Any idea's?? At least from this group. I'm sure I could find something however we need educated response and not some petruli infused BS that will get no respect...
Question: If Paulsen says banks will be reluctant to participate if salary caps or equity is involved, why can't they just add to the bill: "On Sep 11, 2009 FASB Statement 157 will go into effect" and poof all these things will be mark-to-market on the balance sheet? That should get them to go along, right?
All the charts I've seen show the big nasty resets happening next year.
Also,these are where alot of the no-documentation (liar loans) are at.
$7oo Bill.? Not even close...
Triple that and then triple again.
Funnily enough there is an opportunity for some kind of Ross Perot type party to emerge right now.
An Independent party.
Platform?
Nationalise Healthcare.
Nationalise the oil infrastructure.
Public works programs.
Cut the defense budget by half for five years.
Establish target for balancing the budget.
Convert the mortgages to 5% fixed,30 years.
Make the wealthy pay for the mess
they helped create.
The people must retake control over the right to print money,which must be backed by something.
We will have to buy back our debt if we wish to retain our sovereignty,although it is possibly too late.
The good thing is that people are discussing real issues now.
Strange that it had to take something so extreme for this to happen.
In a nation with high gun ownership the idea of social instability is very unpleasant.
In closing I would like to say how suspicious I am of this "Tonkin Gulf"
methodolgy of stampeding Congress to pressure a quick vote.
This problem has been known about for years and nothing was done.
NOW IT IS URGENT. WHY THE RUSH?
I can't see why good Banks should have to pay for the sins of the corrupt Bankers.
Shouldn't we be rewarding the good Bankers with our business?
This scenario is not going to produce higher inflation, it is going to produce deflation. As I said on the last thread, this is a liquidity trap, and liquidity traps are deflationary. If they want to intervene in a liquidity trap, they need to address the intervention to consumers, not to the banks. Banks are just going to continue to hoard capital once they get it.
That ain't no white flag. Paulson is laughing his ass off that the Dems asked for so little - he got them on board with nothing more than a couple of cheap headline-friendly "concessions".
I think it is useful to analyze Bush's speech in 4 parts, somewhat interrelated, but the 4th part is the most important.
1 - Bush attempts to cry terror: This might be discounted because of Bush's history of pulling the same stunt, or it could worsen the panic by causing panic. On balance a wash more or less as the opposite currents cancel each other out, roughly.
2 - Bush attempts to explain the causes and history of the crisis: Crap all job of it for us who have learned from reading CR, but probably more mildly mediocre in the context of educating the public. The big lies in Bush's telling were to forget that he played some small role in the whole thing (int rates, ownership society, deregulation, no enforcement, etc) and also his palming so much blame on Fannie and Freddie when their MBS have never sunk to zero in value unlike non-GSE MBS.
3 - Bush attempts to explain how the bailout will work. This was all lies. Buy MBS at the current low price? BULLSHIT. Could say more but it wastes electrons.
4 - Bush describes the contours of the bailout now on the table. This is the biggest part of the speech because Bush describes the plan in terms that match the Frank/Dodd proposal. This is no longer the Paulson plan. It is the Frank/Dodd bill, and the President of the US just went on national TV with his pitiful tail between his legs to endorse it.
Now Congress can bargain from here and force Bush to accept an installment plan and thereby include more time to comb the whole fucking thing for fraud and lies.
The lesson of the episode is that not only is Bush the worst President in history, but he is also the lamest duck to ever finsih serving out a term in the White House.
Citi were the dopes at the head of the CDO parade, Wachovia
followed closely behind, while bank-who-shall-not-be-named was sniffing testicles in the rear. $700BB is a dribble fart compared to their combined toxic exposure, and
they inevitably be will be back for more. They deserve to fail, but if
for pragmatic reasons you are going to let them live, you ought to also
let the train motorman whose understanding of loan terms was only mildly worse than theirs live too.
So banks aren't (or can't or won't) lending money therefore the economy will implode...
Doesn't the tax payer own several banks? How about if we inject 2 Trillions on those banks and advertise that we are open for business, fully capitalized and willing to take credit worthy borrowers (individuals and companies) from those other weakly banks? By the way this tax payer owned bank should tell prospective customers that if they find a house appraised at 2001 or so prices and they have income to support the payments on a fix 30 yrs then we will even consider to give them the loan even if they walked away from a upside down situation on another bank....
MS: Dude, I honestly think it's time to just take care of the family. Other than making constant noise via fax/email/phone, I dont know. I wouldn't go near a mass gathering in this environment. Protesters are enemies of the State to the frightened. I'm probably overreacting, but this seems rather serious to me. A power play in which we are not a major power. I just don't want to get squashed.
Can tell most of you aren't die-hard Republicans. The guys I work with still believe Saddam had weapons of mass destruction and he was tight with Al Qaida. They still talk of Bush like he's a hero.
Bond Girl - they won't be hoarding cash. It'll go to salaries and benefits, golden parachutes, dividends, administrative expenses, and some of it will just go missing. It won't be loaned, it will just get spent. $700 billion and more.
people only hoard money if they have savings. they are only discouraged from taking out loans if they save 30% of their income like USA 1929 and japan 1990. Americans will borrow and default again and agai
Here's the part where Bush tried to scare Americans into buying into the bailout by appealing to their selfish financial interests:
"The stock market would drop even more, which would reduce the value of your retirement account. The value of your home could plummet. Foreclosures would rise dramatically."
I hear you...I basically told my wife to be VERY careful going out anywhere as this can get out of hand very quickly. People are finally waking up to this crap and now are in self-preservation mode......not that year's of excess made them any more aware of anyone but themselves however when you take the punch bowl away people will react and take it anyway.
I just feel that emails, faxes, phonecalls really don't convey what is needed....not that I have the answer but I feel powerless after I've exhausted those avenues. Guess I'm just venting outloud.
Hope you got cash......and stash.
We should do lunch one day.....you sound unlike a typical OC resident. I was born in SF valley so believe me I know what it's like in the orange curtain.
my wife is 20 years old, no credit history. got a 10K limit on her card last week. I have bad credit! My limit is 3.5K because of high Debt/income ratio
Watching the Simpson's Movie right now... The parallels to the clueless president handing over the reigns to the cabinet member with carte blanche are just sinking in. We need a Homer Simpson-like hero.
no solution exists that anyone is going to like at all. time to eat that shitty, bitter humble pie.
oh, and get a lot poorer.
look at the overall mood of the comments over the last 6 months. it used to be a bit of a joke. we'd be disgusted by this or that, unhappy with something or other.
now you can sense the fear, frustration and anger through each thread.
Currently Smoking Cannabis writes:
It's a bad idea until a historic crash. Then it will be considered the "only idea." It will be passed in hours.
Currently Smoking Cannabis | Homepage | 09.24.08 - 10:09 pm | #
And a loadie is the only one here who gets it...
To those who disapprove of taxpayer money going toward a 'bailout' - I understand your angst but forget that line of reasoning... taxpayer money is going in SOMEWHERE at SOMETIME... Only question is where, when, how much & to whom.
It will go in to take over more failed banks (FDIC), fiscal stimulus like GM & Ford & 'rebate checks', increased borrowing costs for gov't due to weak credit markets and probably some sort of eventual equity buyout a la RTC II.
The only honesty Bush can be creditied with is he didn't try to pass it off to McCain - though I'm sure they've been trying... damn markets just wouldn't cooperate. So here you go kids - my parting shot.
There is going to be so damned much stimulus & bad debt monetization by the time this is done we probably won't recognize our economic terrain. 700B could end up the 'floor' not the ceiling.
I don't believe this bill is a panacea by any means but if you were here on CR and didn't see something like this coming a year ago you were smoking something a lot stronger than CSC. It was a done deal a year or two ago when real estate only went up...
The question I'd like to know is what comes next - to the 'real economy' of farms, factories, stores, services where most of us really work.
I have no idea... my guess is it will be rough regardless of what happens in DC this week.
The bailout is a good idea IF we can be sure that the bailed-out will begin lending with more capital at better terms to the consumer. Bond Girl is right; banks will hoard the cash, consumers won't get their credit lines renewed, and taxpayers will be stuck. We need confidence the banks will give credit.
House prices will deflate until the rising tide of inflation catches up. Anything unnecessary will deflate. All necessary things will inflate in price. Food, energy, clothes, bus fare, car insurance, rent, etc...
Ya I've been carping about that for a couple years here - just a question of how we get poorer... via weak dollar where we still work but for little gain in terms of purchasing or maintain dollar strength with very high and increasing unemployment.
i think anyone who voted for bush (especially those that voted for him twice) should have to pony up the money for the bail out. let them pay for their fucking mistake instead of all of us paying for it.
My forecast calls for an American Hitler to get elected in 2016 or 2020. We would need 5-10 years of serious pain for born-and-bred American dopes to figure out who the real evildoers for the American People are -- BFNYC. Yes, democracy would be the road for the American Hitler.
In the great depression the PRICE OF FOOD WAS THE FIRST THING TO FALL. They slaughtered animals to keep prices up. This is no great depression. This is weimar germany. Huge EXTERNAL debt
Mo's linked homepage on all his posts above is a website which links, in turn, to bearish sites like patrick.net, Mish, Dr. Housing Bubble, and Mike Morgan, who all forsee deflation. I don't what kind of game he's playing.
It only works if you have the cash right now to live the rest of your life. Once the dust settles from this mess (2-10 years) no one will loan to you or your girlfriend ever. EVER.
Very classy of you to ruin your GF. Your credit will be easier to repair.
Born-and-bred American dopes only have a choice between an intellectual slave and a hothead. It is a challenge to elect "the lesser of two evils." Dopes like the game, though.
dryfly, that seems to be the million dollar question around here.
i'm still of the thought that a deflationary period will come and be quite oppressive. debt is extremely destructive and NO MATTER what form this bailout comes in we are going to experience the same amount of deleveraging.
a true contraction in the money supply will not allow any inflation to exist. this certainly will mean unemployment levels higher then we are used to.
i suppose now the question is this: when america pushes to inflate everything in sight, maintain a leveraged position and steer clear of disaster, will the world follow??
While I think that it sucks, I believe that the bill will pass. Actually, if you think about it, Bush and team did the correct thing in negotiations. If you want something, ask for the world and let the other team bargin you down to your desires. Bush and team want a bail out so they ask for the kitchen sink knowing that they would get a bail out with restrictions. Either way, my portfolio is ready for the bail out.
As a male, middle-aged, white-collar corporate cog, I tend towards prudence; I want neither to avert my eyes from the crisis and assume everything works out, nor run wild-eyed to my BofA branch and convert all my assets into gold and guns.
So I'm taking the middle course: $300 a day from the ATM, turning some of it into bags of rice and beans, stashing the rest. I'm thinking enough basic food for three months...probably wise anyway. If nothing else, folks could use this crisis as an excuse for preparing for generic disasters, like hurricanes or earthquakes.
If things get dodgier, I'll add a few cases of hard liquor, some cartons of cheap cigarettes, and a gross of condoms: trade goods which should be a decent hedge against hyperinflation for a few weeks, at which point I expect I will likely be ambushed and disemboweled by looters.
I wanna second (third?) the notion - anybody new to this watching Bush has gotta be freaked. Wouldn't be surprised to see runs on the bank, 401k's, IRAs...
The other part that got me is - he talked about the bad loans, then talked about greasing the system - that the solution is to get banks to loan "families and business" money.
Dude, didn't you just say the problem was too much lending?
The backlash, in phone calls as well as e-mail messages, is putting lawmakers in a quandary as they weigh what many regard as the most consequential decision of their careers: whether to agree to President Bushs request to spend an estimated $700 billion in taxpayer money to rescue the financial services system.
Lawmakers Constituents Make Their Bailout Views Loud and Clear Lawmakers' Constituents Make Their Bailout Views Loud and Clear - NY Times
Misean - I've always said I could tolerate 'reinflation' - but only via a true RTC like mechanism... the equity needs to be wiped out & the perps have to walk the plank... THEN let the FDIC or RTC liquidate what remains.
But first wipe them out.
And I'm as big a bleeding heart as there ever was - if we are going to spend money to help folks then help them get an apt after they are foreclosed & rebuild credit, see to it affordable basic health care is available, see to it kids can still go to school, don't let people starve.
But the institutions like GS & MS aren't people. We shouldn't be feeding them nor their pigman captains. How liberals have gone from saving people from Hooverville to saving the mini-McMansions blows me away.
Once the dust settles from this mess (2-10 years) no one will loan to you or your girlfriend ever. EVER.
Oh whatever, spare the morality lecture. They'll write it down and he'll be just another casualty of the downturn. One that never FCed a half-million dollar house.
I wonder why Bush forgot to mention that during the run up in house prices and astronomical debt that he was exalting the brave new era of The Ownership Society?
So someone with a some video editing software could intersperse W's critique of what got us to this crisis with his bragging about The Ownership Society. Not that our leader needs any further dismantling of his reputation but it could be kind of funny.
He can tell that the blame train is coming and he definitely trying to get out of the way for the sake of the future of the Republican party. And by "he" I mean his speech writer. Gearge W the person checked out a long time ago.
--
"The rich will feel asset deflation. the middle class will feel inflation (CPI)."
Angry Saver,
That is what most think and most never think right. My forecast is for outright CPI deflation next year led by demand destruction (gasoline demand off 8%, YoY).
WASHINGTON, Sept 24 (Reuters) - U.S. congressional Democrats and Republicans plan to meet on Thursday to draft a final bipartisan Wall Street bailout bill, a Democratic source said on Wednesday night.
"Not too many unresolved issues remain," the source said.
The source spoke after meetings earlier in the day by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and members of the House of Representatives and Senate.
House and Senate Democrats, along with some Republican committee members, intend "to sit down at 10 a.m. (1400 GMT) tomorrow to draft a final bipartisan bill to be passed and signed into law," the Democratic source said.
Earlier on Wednesday, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd emerged from a meeting with Paulson and other Democratic senators saying there was no deal yet on a financial bailout bill, but he expressed optimism one could come soon.
"We're not there yet," Dodd told reporters, adding there was a "good possibility we'll get there in a day or so."
1st?
mister bush, you failed.
first
Will financial institutions be housed in FEMA trailers?
Do you really think anyone was watching?
be afraid, panic.
Now the market can attempt to force Congress' hand by plummeting.
Bush fail to inspire?
You are kidding right?
Or am I.....
Did anyone notice how he was referring to much of the housing related fiasco (current equity below purchase price). Isn't much of this still not going on?
I never thought I'd see the day when Newt Gingrich and Barney Frank agreed on something. Is that a good thing?
Their only priority is to delay the real crash into January so they can pin it on Obama. No concern about what 2010 is gonna look like.
Then they'll run Jindal/Palin ticket of snakehandling holy rollers in 2012.
Joo got some splainin to do
The speech should have mentioned dollar cost averaging the bad assets; call the speech The Automatic Trillionaire.
I used to get a laugh out of this blog....now I get sad
All news is bad news...
I meant to say, he was referring to much of the housing related fiasco in the past tense. So has it all ended, are prices on the rise now?
Nemo is gone?
This speech motivates me to withdraw my money and hid it in my backyard.
Didn't we get the same sales pitch about Iraq?
Something about WMD and smoking guns turning out to be mushroom clouds?
and watch our expenditures." And that could lead to a deeper recession.
I don't think it will lead to a deeper recession. China and the emerging markets may feel a deeper squeeze, but I think it helps the U.S. Negative savings may create an illusion of prosperity, but it will always be temporary.
Savings = Investment.
CR:
Any updates on the shallow recession call?
Anyone else wonder what happens if/when commercial real estate goes bad? Minyanville likes to say the FED/Treasury has 2 bullets left and the last one will be pointed at themsleves, so was this bill the second to last bullet?
If that lying SOB had known about this crap for months already and then only gives congress a week to act, I say SCREW YOU ASSHOLE....
I WANT FULL DISCLOSURE AND ADEQUATE TIME FOR FULL DISCLOSURE
Fucktard.
He has ZERO credibility.
(remind me not to post while drinking)
Bush thinks anyone is listening to him? NOW? As if he as ANY authority among the electorate after 8 years of his ignorance?
wow
Methinks Biden will stick his foot so far down his throat in the next few weeks, and Barnie Frank will come out such a hero that Obama will replace Biden with Frank....Go Barnie...I've been impressed.
CR - totally agree. GWB could cause a bank run tomorrow or a giant sucking sound as Americans pull out their stock money
The critical question:
How much damage did Bush do with this speech?
More than Hank and Benny with their bumbling, unjustified, unthought-out claims?
Scare, scare, scare. Is anything new here. Oh that's right Oct. just a few days away.
jo6pac
The chairman of the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday said it is "clear" there will be enough votes to pass a broad Wall Street bailout bill.
US Rep. Frank says bailout legislation will pass
| Reuters
We're screwed.
Bush inherited an economy teetering on recession in 2001. Rather than do the right thing and allow us to take our medicine, he and the other asshats in NYC and DC did everything they could to inflate this imaginary economy to the breaking point. In some very small, inexplicable way, I find it very satisfying that the whole thing should go down on his watch. Whoever wins the election in November will go down as the sucker of the (relatively young) century.
Honestly, I'm encouraged. He didn't declare martial law and postpone the elections. All he did was parrot precisely the stuff Paulson and Bernake have been saying for two days.
That means they have nothing else.
Keep up those calls and emails.
How Bush think he can inspire anyone to do anything after his track record for the last eight years is beyond me.
I just want to know if an effective tax-payer revolt could be set up if this bailout passes and corporations and individuals you made bad/greedy decisions get off the hook at the expense of those of use who were responsible and didn't overextend ourselves and our families.
Anyone else up for the tax-payer revolt of '08-'09? We could call it the Wall Street Derivatives Party.
Bush = EPIC FAIL
Translation: "If we told you how deeply we screwed this up, you'd all really get unhinged. Let us manage the repair of the system. We know what's wrong now."
Well, I'll go out and do right what you say Great Leader
Please.
Go get hit by a bus and do the world a favor. As if anyone listens to a word he says anymore. The Freakin nerve trying to pass the blame to congress if they 'don't help the American People'
I want to scream
Zeus writes:
Did anyone notice how he was referring to much of the housing related fiasco (current equity below purchase price). Isn't much of this still not going on?
Yes. There are alot of loans with up to date LTV's greater than 100. Most are in CA and FL where in certain zips houses have fallen 100%. Interestingly even when homeowners have negative equity whether they default or go delinq. depends on whether they put money in originally. For example if a person had and 80% LTV and house prices fell 30% they'd have negative equity. But take the same person but one who took out an 80% LTV loan with a 15% heloc to pay the down payment and the default rates are tremendously different.
<a href="http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/CF/FR/MKJ/>and the Nikkie gets a woody
I'm not sure if this speech will motivate people to call their representatives, but it might motivate people that haven't been paying attention to say: "Wow, this is bad. Let's make sure our money is safe, and watch our expenditures." And that could lead to a deeper recession.
While I agree that this will likely have an impact, my personal opinion is that it is small. What freaks people out is simple: jobs, and the fear of losing one's job.
Government is finally admiting that the financial system is broken and the economy is about to break. Expect panic any day now....
"And that could lead to a deeper recession."
You think the US economy is going to recover now that we are past the global peak of oil production? Too much financial thinking, too little big picture thinking.
ah but this is a wonderful scam thankfully run for the citizens benefit...buy cheap assets, inflate the dollar so that even the scariest assets turn a profit and pay off our creditors with cents on the dollar. Will take a couple of years but in the meantime, borrow all you can to buy hard assets..even houses..and hold on for the ride.
I thought everything was contained?
You mean they lied? Oh that's so strange
girlbear | 09.24.08 - 9:51 pm | #
Humor is what make the world go-around, this just a sad state of affairs.
"borrow all you can to buy hard assets..even houses..and hold on for the ride."
Thanks, but I'm not up for any more leveraged bets right now...
That means they have nothing else.
If they could put together a set of visual aids and
links to real time data showing in J6P terms why they think the economy is dead in a week, that would be helpful.
Tim Auld writes:
"And that could lead to a deeper recession."
You think the US economy is going to recover now that we are past the global peak of oil production? Too much financial thinking, too little big picture thinking.
Tim Auld | 09.24.08 - 9:57 pm |
Thats been my exact thought on this for the past year.
screwed up the last sentence in a previous post. sorry.
Zeus writes:
Did anyone notice how he was referring to much of the housing related fiasco (current equity below purchase price). Isn't much of this still not going on?
Yes. There are alot of loans with up to date LTV's greater than 100. Most are in CA and FL where in certain zips houses have fallen so LTVs are greater than 100%.
Futures went up after the speech--who coulda predicted that?
Any chance the bill does not pass?
He is just trying to panic people. And we are going to have "...rising foreclosures, lost jobs, closed business and "a long and painful recession." if they pass the Paulson proposal or not. The question is are we going to piss away $700 BILLION dollars bailing out his fat cat friends. Heaven forbid they should live with the consequences of their own folly and greed.
"Any chance the bill does not pass?"
No.
We didn't really need the 13th Amendment anyway. Charge it up, Bushmaster. My back can handle the load.
Any chance the bill does not pass?
yes, if constituents continue to oppose it in their faxes and emails
Give me all your money or you'll lose all your money.
"... are we going to piss away $700 BILLION dollars bailing out his ... "
It's not a total of $700B. It's no more than $700B at any one time. There is no limit to the amount that they can spend.
I used to think my grandmother in the old country who only trusted in gold was so old fashioned.
Now, I realize that I was the clueless one.
700 Billion reasons to move into gold.
It is interesting that Asia and the futures are getting stronger on the speech. On the other hand, Buffet's deal had everyone giddy overnight as well...
There was too much money lent out and too much crddit extended so we get out of this mess by....giving the banks more money to lend and to extend more credit with? Backed by the taxpayer?
I wish someone would have the balls to say there IS a crisis and the best thing to do in a free market economy is let the market work the crisis out.
If we want to become a socialist country then elect a socialist leader. We don't even get to vote for socialism, we just get it.
Recently read that ebay might reduce staff. They need to increase -- gonna be a lot of people trying to sell their junk to each other, soon.
John McCain Cancels Letterman Appearance, Keith Olbermann To Fill In
John McCain Cancels Letterman Appearance, Keith Olbermann Fills In
Nor Car writes:
Any chance the bill does not pass?
sm_landlord beat me to it. But I'll add that I think it's already been priced into both the equity and credit markets; nowhere to go but down (kinda complete opposite of what's intended)
ac- I agree. Seems a lot like the WMD/Gotta do something big now speech v2 so his banking/finance buddies can get even richer like Iraq helped his oil buddies rake it in.
and Dan-in-PA, I head another metion that the White House addmitted today they have been formulating a plan for this for months and only now they spring in on us the week before Congress is supposed to adjorn for the elections? That's way fishy also. Anyone have anymore detial on this? I ran a search but couldn't find anything.
Dan - After Bushasses speech I am hitting the wine pretty heavy tonight, so don't feel bad, I am sure we are not alone!
I remember being told in 2000 and 2004 that if I didn't vote for Bush, the country would go to hell.
Well, I didn't, and it did.
The Democratic led Congress did what in the last 2 years to save us ?
Well, if people do cash out their stocks and equity mutual funds, a lot that cash will probably go to money-market funds which will buy commercial paper, which will help (big) companies operate.
Of course, to cash out requires that there be buyers for the stock, and that the mutual funds have cash to exchange for redeemed shares.
Yeah, it could be ugly. Buckle up.
Perhaps the entire economy will deleverage the hard way.
Could there be executive orders waiting to be promulgated to implement the HP plan without Congressional approval? Declaration of state of emergency?
"Entire Economy is in Danger"
that is what will set off the bank runs tomorrow.
We went from "strong economy" to that in one week's time.
Get ready for a circuit breaker day tomorrow....count on it.
Ciao
MS
Bush came far closer to telling the truth than I expected. But he called the $700 billion "the solution," when it's just a bigger version of what they've already tried. And he blamed it on Clinton; "For more than a decade..." Oh, and he failed to mention the 2 million or so Alt-A resets that are coming up soon. There's no amount of money that can prevent that.
If we don't pass the bailout... the terrorists win.
Is McCain still hiding in the time-out corner?
I am going to put an offer on the table.
I want to show a few of you what firesale prices mean. I have access to a sh*tload of resources on how to analyze, and uncover the collateral behind many of these securities. I can show you where this stuff clears and why there is a difference between fire-sale and fair value/htm value. How to set something like this up dunno.
There sure are alot of Comrades around here. I had no idea Comrades were so well versed in the workings of the free market. Then again, neither are the capitalists these days.
How long until one of the countless government owned homes gets sold to a congressional staffer for $1, then he flips it for $250,000 at our expense? 1 Month? 3 months? Over/under?
Asia doesn't seem to like what they heard. And bucky is exhibiting a little limpness...
I dunno. In watching the talking head shows, from CNN to Fox, the consensus is this is a universal bad idea. As I said, you have Barney Frank and Newt Gingrich both opposing this. You can't get a more broad based condemnation than that.
I give it a 60/40 NO.
"Then they'll run Jindal/Palin ticket of snakehandling holy rollers in 2012."
No way anybody's prying the top spot from Evita Palin's fingers in '12.
Maybe futures are up because the futurists figure Bush's speech will stampede Congresscritters into approving Hank's plan without further delay.
The problem is most of the sample letters I have seen people sending to congress are that they oppose this bail out. So now they are just going to amend it and pass it anyway. We need to make it clear that we oppose ANY bailout using taxpayer money. Let the banks and FED figure it out. I don't think this has really been made clear to congress.
For the newbies to the discussion, the speech tonight will have them running to their bank tomorrow. "Is it that bad? Must get our money out of the bank!"
What an idiot.
Deep in the collective subconscious of all Americans is this scary thought - we'll solve this problem just as we solved Iraq and Katrina.
Alt-a option arms coming,Alt-a option arms coming,Alt-a option arms coming,Alt-a option arms coming,Alt-a option arms coming,Alt-a option arms coming,Alt-a option arms coming,Alt-a option arms coming,Alt-a option arms coming,Alt-a option arms coming,Alt-a option arms coming,Alt-a option arms coming,Alt-a option arms coming,Alt-a option arms coming,Alt-a option arms coming,Alt-a option arms coming,Alt-a option arms coming,Alt-a option arms coming,Alt-a option arms coming,Alt-a option arms coming,Alt-a option arms coming,Alt-a option arms coming,Alt-a option arms coming,Alt-a option arms coming,
"AIG threatened,,,threatened,,to take down the whole,,,,,house of cards"
actual Bush quote last week.
He makes me so confident.
"...Barney Frank and Newt Gingrich both opposing this. You can't get a more broad based condemnation than that."
That's narrower than it looks. What you have is two fairly extreme types opposing, but the sheep in the middle will push this through in some form because they are scared.
It won't start off that way however as news spreads about the lines at the banks it will gather momentum and it will be shut off into the close and not re-open.
Then the real fun begins. Using that as leverage to pass the bill as it is with the mantra of "see I told you so".
Any strength tomorrow should be faded....HARD.
Ciao
MS
Barney Frank (good old male escort brothel running Barney!) is having a meeting with the house financial committe to orrow at 10am, and the president is meeting with Obama and McCain at 10am, both discussing what to do. Should be interesting.
Cr writes... "but it might motivate people that haven't been paying attention"
When I was watching, I'm thinking "This whole thing going back to last week is Heisenberg uncertainty principle", meaning that there has to be some measure of economic activity simply as a result of folks waiting for the new rules.
It's a bad idea until a historic crash. Then it will be considered the "only idea." It will be passed in hours.
This reminds me of the " Read My Lips " speech from Senior.
raphael writes:
I am going to put an offer on the table.
If it can be linked to, I can scrape it and package it, no problem.
S.o.N.
anonymous - 70-90% default, 60-75% severity. wait till those houses hit the market. adjust personal portfolio appropriately.
And I don't know what Barney Frank is talking about, I have watched all the hearings and he wants some form of bailout, its called the Dodd/Frank plans, it's still taxpayer money and it is going to pass. What is he opposing exactly?
CSC, what's historic? I'd like your opinion...and an ounce...
raphael,
I'm ignorant of 'blogging, but I believe that it is not difficult to set up a personal website/blog for free at sites such as blogspot.com (which hosts CR)
https://www.blogger.com/start
I've not done this, but my impression is that it is not hard to do. You could broadcast your information to the world, if that is your desire.
Sincerely,
somebody better cheer Cracker up.
Its not even fun making money from stupid anymore.
" BEIJING, Sept 25 (Reuters) - Chinese regulators have told domestic banks to stop interbank lending to U.S. financial institutions to prevent possible losses during the financial crisis, the South China Morning Post reported on Thursday.
The Hong Kong newspaper cited unidentified industry sources as saying the instruction from the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) applied to interbank lending of all currencies to U.S. banks but not to banks from other countries.
"The decree appears to be Beijing's first attempt to erect defences against the deepening U.S. financial meltdown after the mainland's major lenders reported billions of U.S. dollars in exposure to the credit crisis," the SCMP said.
A spokesman for the CBRC had no immediate comment. "
this is such a farce.
Here hurrry up and sign this 700 billion dollar bailout or the next thing you see will be a mushroom cloud.
Jesse's Café Américain: American Public to Wall Street Banks: Drop Dead
Youtube of Letterman's reaction to the McCain no show is up on KOS. It's pretty awesome, all nine minutes of it. I assume they will edit it down a little for tonight.
So, John McCain has reportedly paid more than $5,500 to Tifanie White, the makeup artist who works on "American Idol," for similar cosmetic services. It is yet another incident of a politician -- regardless of ideological stripe -- coughing up a lot of money for the sake of good looks.
McCain's $5,000 Makeup: Will There Be Backlash?
You retards don't understand. Inflation is the GOAL of this program. It puts a floor under housing and commercial RE. If they can cause massive inflation (10%/year). House prices can only crash another 10% in nominal terms and the bottom will be in. Weakening the dollar will also solve the problem with outsourcing and production. It will no longer be profitable to do either outside the country. Our standard of living will decline until we meet the Chinese on their way up. THEN THE RISING TIDE WILL LIFT ALL BOATS. But the recession and market/RE crash in REAL TERMS is unavoidable. They just want to trick the morons into continuing to think the stock market and RE and debt in general is good.
""This whole thing going back to last week is Heisenberg uncertainty principle""
Actually Brownian motion. Lots of heat cause the particles to bang against each other at a furious rate. The appearance of activity but not much motion - heat, noise, but no motion yet.
First?
Sorry - here is the link to story above:
halt lending
Tax Payer revolt?
Simple if you are a 1099 you make sure you don't pay taxes. There are several ways to do this however space dictates that I don't go into them (and so does whoever is watching too)
Paying taxes from here on out is a sucker's game. I understand many of you have no choice but for those that do you know how to "make it so"
Ciao
MS
Check out C-Span 2, the head of the Congressional Budget office is on. He sounds like he knows what he is talking about, and has been making some very good points
Shrub's other nut- couldn't really interpret the response. I am open to show a select few a what I'm talking about. This is not a 20/20 publication I'm offering.
albrt: where is the video ?
Maybe we need a "long and painful recession". Trying so hard to avoid recession for the last 20 years is what go us into this mess. I was hoping that they were going to come up with a better one than that for the dark and evil danger lurking right around the corner.
Clinton and GHWB are supporting the bail-out. $700 billion to buy garbage, issue fat government contracts to asset managers to hold the garbage until the market returns to "normal" - which it can never do because it was peak bubble garbage. Peak Garbage. And the big new lie is that the $700 billion will be paid back as the Peak Garbage recovers and is sold.
merciless: I'm a lightweight here, but 8500 on the DOW would send every suit on the Hill scrambling for the Aye button.
An ounce is holding firm at $350, dollar collapse or no.
I posted Youtube link to video in last thread.
I am trying to find real time sources for reactions to the speech from regular people - not media, not politicians. CR is great, but is there a similar source for "the other side"? Almost everybody posting here sees things the same way (correctly of course)...
Any suggestions?
thank you childish.
All your bailouts belong to us
I think Bush got into a bet with bin Laden about who could do the most damage. Bush is clearly winning.
Is that for real, Hank the Impaler? That's really scary if it is.
"An ounce is holding firm at $350, dollar collapse or no."
I assume that you were not referring to an ounce of silver? Or....?
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjkCrfylq-E>Letterman lambasting some guy who shall remain nameless
I lost money on that speech. I had bet that he would coin a new Bushism misspeak and say "The troubled asses on Wall Street..."
"coughing up a lot of money for the sake of good looks."
he got ripped off.
"How long until one of the countless government owned homes gets sold to a congressional staffer for $1, then he flips it for $250,000 at our expense? 1 Month? 3 months? Over/under?"
It already happens. When I lived in DC, my soon-to-be roomate got wind they were shutting down the Kentucky Courts housing project in SE DC. He bought a row-house across the street. We lived in it a year, then he sold for $300k, approx 120% what he paid... This was 2001-ish.
calvert: The YouTube comments are pretty diverse usually. Lots of good ole fashioned name calling and racism.
McCain's Economic Plan: Blurt Out Random Crap
Bob Cesca: McCain's Economic Plan: Blurt Out Random Crap
cali schwagg goin for 200 an oz. in OR.
shout out to CSC.
sandito writes:
CR - totally agree. GWB could cause a bank run tomorrow or a giant sucking sound as Americans pull out their stock money
I missed the speech. But the headlines are f'ing scary enough.
We might be congradulating each other from the breadline on our foresight... ugh. I still think we can get out of this with a deep recession... but hope is slipping.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
sm_landlord writes:
I assume that you were not referring to an ounce of silver? Or....?
Gold. Acapulco Gold.
$350 an ounce? that better be really green and sticky.
Futures went up after the speech--who coulda predicted that?
Mel,
I hope you're not insinuating that a lot of the $700 billion is really just a slush fund to prop up the stock market?
As long as the stock market can be propped up, does the economy really matter so much?
200 for a wizard. Deflation has its up side.
If an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure, what would prevention have cost f the cure is $700 Billion?
"I'm not sure if this speech will motivate people to call their representatives, but it might motivate people that haven't been paying attention to say: "Wow, this is bad. Let's make sure our money is safe, and watch our expenditures.""
But that's what people should do. Be financially prudent and live within their means. Save money. How many of us really need any more of the crap that fills up our malls? Frugal is good.
"If we want to become a socialist country then elect a socialist leader. We don't even get to vote for socialism, we just get it."
Heck they can't even do socialism right. Socialism is when the government seizes the assets of the wealthy for the (alleged) benefit of the proletariat; now we have the assets of the proles being seized for the benefit of the capitalist! We may have to invent a new word for that. Or maybe just use the F-word.
JOHN MCCAIN'S LATEST CRAZY, BRILLIANT, DESPERATE CAMPAIGN TACTIC.
John McCain's latest crazy, brilliant, desperate campaign tactic. - By John Dickerson - Slate Magazine
Bush mentioned MBS, but didn't say that the financial institutions leveraged these instruments to ridiculous levels (and that leverage limits were in effect removed for five of the biggest firms (three of which have now failed already), nor did he say that CDS's were left completely unregulated, nor did he mention that his appointees were busy deregulating or preventing better regulation of the financial industry. No harms were committed on his watch, he wants us to believe.
Bullcrap. Notice also that Bush's speech was done in the Imperial Hallway leading to the East Room, and not the Oval Office.
Not once did he say that they have been planning this bailout for months and sprung it on the Congress about to adjourn (like Iraq resolution, Patriot Act, etc.). This time however, his 'shock and awe', do it tomorrow or else approach hasn't worked so well. All hat, no horse has been exposed again.
Assuming that just putting a team together to actually execute this bill (whatever it becomes) will take well in 2009, Congress should only actually appropriate 10% of the $700 billion now, and hold 90% to see if any of Paulson's magic potion is going to work.
Out, out, damn failed Presidency.
Cr*p that is an ominous <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/>NYtimes front page (Bush looks like Vader emerging from his chamber)
MS- that attitude about taxes (I'm gonna get mine) is what got us into this mess. If you've followed this even somewhat carefully, you should have made a small fortune over the past two years. I don't mind sharing a bit of the winnings with society- god knows they'll need it.
Commission says debate to go on
Commission says debate to go on - UPI.com
The panel arranging the U.S. presidential debates said Wednesday night John McCain and Barack Obama should go at it Friday despite the financial market crisis.
The non-partisan Commission on Presidential Debates said in a statement it was "moving forward" with plans for the first presidential debate to be held at the University of Mississippi in Oxford, Miss., The New York Times (NYSE:NYT) reported.
"The plans for this forum have been under way for more than a year and a half," the commission noted. "The (commission's) mission is to provide a forum in which the American public has an opportunity to hear the leading candidates for the president of the United States debate the critical issues facing the nation. We believe the public will be well served by having all of the debates go forward as scheduled."
You retards don't understand. Inflation is the GOAL of this program. It puts a floor under housing and commercial RE. If they can cause massive inflation (10%/year). House prices can only crash another 10% in nominal terms and the bottom will be in. Weakening the dollar will also solve the problem with outsourcing and production. It will no longer be profitable to do either outside the country. Our standard of living will decline until we meet the Chinese on their way up. THEN THE RISING TIDE WILL LIFT ALL BOATS. But the recession and market/RE crash in REAL TERMS is unavoidable. They just want to trick the morons into continuing to think the stock market and RE and debt is good.
CR- "current low prices" is Bernanke speak for "hold to maturity"....ie: house prices will be higher in 30 years.
SRC: this is valuable info so I'm not trying to broadcast to the worl, ie. somewhat of a competive adv. I'm not trying to blast it out.
Just offered the opportunity for a few of the biggest critics to see a different view on how this stuff is working out in the cap mkts.
Funny now that I think about it maybe Paulson and Bernanke should pick a specific security and show what they mean rather than speak so obtusely about firesale mktval vs htm value... i have a ton of examples.
The way Bush tells it, the cause of the current crisis is foreign investors kept investing too much money in this country, leading to too much money being lent to consumers, who then spent too much on houses. He conveniently skips one of the key causes: too much deregulation and not an appropriate amount of oversight.
A rescue will be abandoned
Sent to its grave following fiery debate
The foolish Emperor will resurrect it
His act spreads fear
You idiots are advising prudence? Our system rewards PROFLIGATE SPENDING!!!
The Democratic led Congress did what in the last 2 years to save us ?
JMK | 09.24.08 - 10:04 pm | #
Exactly how many Democrats are there in the Senate, how many GOP? Answer 49-49 with 2 independents. Ok, I'll give ya Sanders as a Dem, Leiberman, not so much. How many votes does it take to over ride a veto? How many votes does it take to invoke closure? The GOP was involved in more fillabusters in the last 2 years than any other single congress in the history of the nation.
This "do nothing Congress" line of attack by GOP hacks convineintly ignores the fact that it is the GOP that has done everythig possible to prevent congress from actually doing anything. Of course when the GOP was in charge and the Dems tried to Filibuster, the GOP tried to eliminate 215 years of tradition in the Senate and eliminate the Filibuster.
What they figure is getting back to the nominal price. They do that with inflation. With enough inflation, it won't be long until the median house price -- anywhere in the country -- is at least 300K. It's like the Dow tricksters were so happy when the Dow recently got back to where it was before the dotcom mess. The Iraq war guaranteed future inflation. The 700B bailout will make it even greater.
Did we really need a historical review of this debackle?
Inspired? Good grief, what an epic fail and resounding and fitting end to his administration.
Re: Gold. Acapulco Gold.
Kona Gold
Chimpy's short.
This is a re-post from the prior thread. For those that didn't see it, Megremis offered to spend $50K of his/her own money to organize a march to oppose the bailout.
Megremis:
First, let me congratulate you for your patriotism and selflessness. It's been some time since I've seen this in such vivid relief. You inspired me.
Next: you need instant-ness. Think about radio spots or people handing out flyers at metro-rail stops in DC or NYC. Think Republican churches. The Repubs are opposed to the bailout, and they can mobilize FAST.
Hook into organizations that already exist, and can mobilize quickly - already have e-mail lists, already have relationship to action-oriented members. Think labor unions, small business association, AARP - get on the phone to big orgs that are opposed to this - and get them to mobilize their people. Hire a PR exec that knows the decision-makers at these big orgs. I can't supply names, but I bet there's other people on this list that can.
Above all, the strategy needs to concentrate on speed, and that means radio. Consider doing your own voice. Your message is really convincing because you don't seem "coached" and you are putting up your own $$. This is going to get people's attn. Also, consider putting your story out to the local TV stations - this is truly newsworthy, they might bite on it.
Best I can do on the spur of the moment. feel free to e-mail if I can be of further assist.
outerbeltway at yahoo dot com
To Jas Jain: here's somebody that's taking a swing at the problem. Will you donate some $$ to get the job done? You seem like you're a both a strategic thinker and action-oriented. I'll put in some hours if you'll put in some $$
Anyone else in a position to put in time or $$ ??
Got better ideas how to apply pressure that may not necessarily be via a march? Speak up. Vote's in two or less days.
Bush did comment that the plan was to buy assets "at the current low price", seemingly contradicting the comments from Bernanke and Paulson earlier today that they would buy at above the current "fire sale" prices.
Bush states that current prices are low, implying that the time to buy them is now.
BandP say they'll pay more than the real value of the toxic assets out there, and they need the money to do it now.
It's not contradictory, it's just some speechwriter's idea of passing a baldfaced lie as technical truth. Bush and his handlers just tried to convince taxpayers that they're really getting a great deal on these things, and that the taxpayer can only watch these assets grow, grow, grow to save the economy! Meanwhile, BandP are gearing up to buy overpriced assets to the tune of hundreds of billions to... save the economy.
Bush is fronting for a bunch of cheap con men taking everyone for an expensive ride, and Mr. "I Ran Several Companies Into the Ground So I Gets To Be The CEO Preznit" probably doesn't even realize it.
I hate the way Bush implied this "solution" would stop the decline in home prices.
also...has anyone asked or answered what happens if this is enacted and does not work?
The end of the world as we know it is near.
wally writes:
Give me all your money or you'll lose all your money.
we had to kill our people to save our people
Soviet Union
wow
McCain Loses His Head
George F. Will - McCain Loses His Head - washingtonpost.com
Under the pressure of the financial crisis, one presidential candidate is behaving like a flustered rookie playing in a league too high. It is not Barack Obama.
Channeling his inner Queen of Hearts, John McCain furiously, and apparently without even looking around at facts, said Chris Cox, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, should be decapitated. This childish reflex provoked the Wall Street Journal to editorialize that "McCain untethered" -- disconnected from knowledge and principle -- had made a "false and deeply unfair" attack on Cox that was "unpresidential" and demonstrated that McCain "doesn't understand what's happening on Wall Street any better than Barack Obama does."
Oregons already in a the depression...
and everyone knows it..
coffee and bonghit, the new speedball.
Mo: Very interesting summary. But there are no retards here except for a few political drifters.
Megremis offered to spend $50K of his/her own money to organize a march to oppose the bailout.
As long as it's not a sausage fest, I'll ride the bus.
An oz is $350 ? You're kidding right? If not, I'm glad I was a kid in the 70's and not today...
More to the point - the bailout will pass. Don't bother with the cards and letters. The Dems already have their version of the plan, and now it's just about reconciling a few deal points. Probably done by Friday so McCain can go down to Mississippi for the debate.
gab, he is not kidding.
What I meant to say is that if you ever overpay for anything, you will have overpaid for it forever, regardless of whether inflation makes it "worth more."
An O is $350 for kind in Orange County. The same quality is available cheaper in LA. LA is Mecca though for Kush.
"An O is $350 for kind in Orange County."
Now, there is a business with some sensible margins.
gab, he is not kidding.
You're getting ripped of, even for kb.
Re: Chinese halting interbank lending to US banks (linked above)
Just how much do US banks typically borrow from Chinese banks? I've never seen any figures, but I suspect it's not much.
Re: Re: Chinese halting interbank lending to US banks (linked above)
I read it fast, but I'm guessing it means no swap counterpartying. If so, not so big a deal.
Oxford, MS and Ole Miss spent $5 mil of somebodies money in preparation for for the debate. The town is filling up now. Quite a hit to the area if it gets cancelled.
McCain suspends campaign. Will the debate be postponed?
YouTube - McCain suspends campaign. Will the debate be postponed?
The first thought that came to my mind while Bush was droning on and on was a memory of this kid in the 9th grade who was running a craps game scam before classes.
How much is a trillion dollars? $1 Trillion will buy 178,571 POUNDS of CSC's bud... Scary.
Hmmm.. all this weed talk. What about legalization? Tons of tax revenue and people sitting at home not driving and spending more than they can pay back... Just a thought...
HECKUVVA JOB PAULIE
Sh*t.
If there is no campaign, and all hell is breaking loose, you can't have an election. The people will not have had a fair chance to assess their candidates.
Ugh. Nightmares are coming true.
jim in OR-
Was in your neck o the woods the last few days. Went up to St. Helens on Sat. saw nothing...socked in completely. Was out at The race track(PIR) on Monday rained a little bit.
Beautiful area...all of it.
Ciao
MS
Sorry about the flipness of the kb comment, not really thinking about the area. 350/O probably is a decent price, given the higher COL. But man, I'd be putting the pressure on for 3 if I was at all regular.
The stupid ass squandered all his credibility with his lies about the Iraq war. Nobody forgets that and nobody with any sense trusts him any more. He's shot his wad; he's a has been liar. So it doesn't make much difference what he says. At least not to me.
ac- I agree. Seems a lot like the WMD/Gotta do something big now speech v2 so his banking/finance buddies can get even richer like Iraq helped his oil buddies rake it in.
I'm more concerned with the practical matters of Bush's track record:
The actions he advocates generally lead to poor outcomes.
The simple fact that GWB says we need this bailout is the most damning strike against it. His recommendation should be a glaring warning sign to people that it might make things significantly worse instead of better.
Just how much do US banks typically borrow from Chinese banks? I've never seen any figures, but I suspect it's not much.
A shot across the bow.
Can't get into Denninger's site now.
You retards don't understand. Inflation is the GOAL of this program. It puts a floor under housing and commercial RE
Um, we got it. But the more glaring reason is reducing the value of the national debt. I mean how brilliant is that. Get the slant-eyes to fund our party and then undercut the value of what they lent us by half? God, effing brilliance and utter immoral clap, given that the burden falls as a tax on the middle to lower american classes.
Floors under asset prices is an accidental follow-on.
"If there is no campaign, and all hell is breaking loose, you can't have an election."
Nothing in the constitution about campaigns. Plenty about elections.
YouTube -
FEDERAL RESERVE BANKING INDUSTRY INSIDE JOB
YouTube -
Leave it to Stephen Colbert to come up with this one
Interesting speech.
The only concession of the "big four" I did not hear was an agreement to trade equity for cash.
No equity no deal!
mini-dows fading already? Man, can't American tax dollars buy the prez at least a few hours of market pop?
Congrats to whoever is making their income tax payments back off their uncle tonight.
Dollar dropping
INO Equities Stocks Indexes - U.S $ INDEX (NYBOT:DX) Price Chart and Quote
WTF- if the Dumbocrats vote for this bill, then ...
aw damn, maybe I should get a hobby or something
Byz: No flipness received. Top Kush in West LA goes for $90 1/8 in the medical community. OC lacks any good medical presence, so the "guys" get more for the kgb.
Long Beach is cheaper, but OC has held here for about 5 years or so.
(I've been in over a hundred dispensaries throughout the state, and the quality/price varies regionally/by strain.)
Bill will pass. Deflationists will be ass raped
manu06 writes:
Can't get into Denninger's site now.
Karl basically accused BB of purposely draining the liquidity out of the system to force banks closures and the present crisis, to further the need for this bailout.
Debtors will be rewarded. Take out unsecured loans. Buy a big screen TV and a BMW. Default.
AS far as protests go.......what can we left coaster's do???
Any idea's?? At least from this group. I'm sure I could find something however we need educated response and not some petruli infused BS that will get no respect...
CSC-
What say you....what can we do?
I got the time......
Ciao
MS
Bailout about avoiding great depression again.
YouTube -
Question: If Paulsen says banks will be reluctant to participate if salary caps or equity is involved, why can't they just add to the bill: "On Sep 11, 2009 FASB Statement 157 will go into effect" and poof all these things will be mark-to-market on the balance sheet? That should get them to go along, right?
Anonymous above is the Cassandra voice.
All the charts I've seen show the big nasty resets happening next year.
Also,these are where alot of the no-documentation (liar loans) are at.
$7oo Bill.? Not even close...
Triple that and then triple again.
Funnily enough there is an opportunity for some kind of Ross Perot type party to emerge right now.
An Independent party.
Platform?
Nationalise Healthcare.
Nationalise the oil infrastructure.
Public works programs.
Cut the defense budget by half for five years.
Establish target for balancing the budget.
Convert the mortgages to 5% fixed,30 years.
Make the wealthy pay for the mess
they helped create.
The people must retake control over the right to print money,which must be backed by something.
We will have to buy back our debt if we wish to retain our sovereignty,although it is possibly too late.
The good thing is that people are discussing real issues now.
Strange that it had to take something so extreme for this to happen.
In a nation with high gun ownership the idea of social instability is very unpleasant.
In closing I would like to say how suspicious I am of this "Tonkin Gulf"
methodolgy of stampeding Congress to pressure a quick vote.
This problem has been known about for years and nothing was done.
NOW IT IS URGENT. WHY THE RUSH?
I can't see why good Banks should have to pay for the sins of the corrupt Bankers.
Shouldn't we be rewarding the good Bankers with our business?
Good thing I took out the MAX loans possible while in school. hehehehe
This scenario is not going to produce higher inflation, it is going to produce deflation. As I said on the last thread, this is a liquidity trap, and liquidity traps are deflationary. If they want to intervene in a liquidity trap, they need to address the intervention to consumers, not to the banks. Banks are just going to continue to hoard capital once they get it.
Yup, time to buy a bunch of stuff and default like i'm bear stearns
He raised the white flag.
That ain't no white flag. Paulson is laughing his ass off that the Dems asked for so little - he got them on board with nothing more than a couple of cheap headline-friendly "concessions".
Dems have just been played -big time.
I think it is useful to analyze Bush's speech in 4 parts, somewhat interrelated, but the 4th part is the most important.
1 - Bush attempts to cry terror: This might be discounted because of Bush's history of pulling the same stunt, or it could worsen the panic by causing panic. On balance a wash more or less as the opposite currents cancel each other out, roughly.
2 - Bush attempts to explain the causes and history of the crisis: Crap all job of it for us who have learned from reading CR, but probably more mildly mediocre in the context of educating the public. The big lies in Bush's telling were to forget that he played some small role in the whole thing (int rates, ownership society, deregulation, no enforcement, etc) and also his palming so much blame on Fannie and Freddie when their MBS have never sunk to zero in value unlike non-GSE MBS.
3 - Bush attempts to explain how the bailout will work. This was all lies. Buy MBS at the current low price? BULLSHIT. Could say more but it wastes electrons.
4 - Bush describes the contours of the bailout now on the table. This is the biggest part of the speech because Bush describes the plan in terms that match the Frank/Dodd proposal. This is no longer the Paulson plan. It is the Frank/Dodd bill, and the President of the US just went on national TV with his pitiful tail between his legs to endorse it.
Now Congress can bargain from here and force Bush to accept an installment plan and thereby include more time to comb the whole fucking thing for fraud and lies.
The lesson of the episode is that not only is Bush the worst President in history, but he is also the lamest duck to ever finsih serving out a term in the White House.
The Paulson Plan is Dead, Dead, Dead.
Preznit Pissypanmts didn't inspire you all?
Ministry of Truth, you will LOVE this:
bushfail.org
Did anyone around here like the speech? There's gotta be at least one Bushbot still on message.
Citi were the dopes at the head of the CDO parade, Wachovia
followed closely behind, while bank-who-shall-not-be-named was sniffing testicles in the rear. $700BB is a dribble fart compared to their combined toxic exposure, and
they inevitably be will be back for more. They deserve to fail, but if
for pragmatic reasons you are going to let them live, you ought to also
let the train motorman whose understanding of loan terms was only mildly worse than theirs live too.
So banks aren't (or can't or won't) lending money therefore the economy will implode...
Doesn't the tax payer own several banks? How about if we inject 2 Trillions on those banks and advertise that we are open for business, fully capitalized and willing to take credit worthy borrowers (individuals and companies) from those other weakly banks? By the way this tax payer owned bank should tell prospective customers that if they find a house appraised at 2001 or so prices and they have income to support the payments on a fix 30 yrs then we will even consider to give them the loan even if they walked away from a upside down situation on another bank....
Yeah Bond Girl, Germany, Zimbabwe, Turkey, and every other country in the world had DEFLATION
postscript
I should add that Congress bloody well ought to demand that some body other than the treasury administer the bailout.
Fuck Paulson. He is now lamer than Bush.
What's clear is that the Feds are going to spend borrowed money to avoid short term pain until some external force causes them to stop.
MS: Dude, I honestly think it's time to just take care of the family. Other than making constant noise via fax/email/phone, I dont know. I wouldn't go near a mass gathering in this environment. Protesters are enemies of the State to the frightened. I'm probably overreacting, but this seems rather serious to me. A power play in which we are not a major power. I just don't want to get squashed.
my assIf the assets are bailed out. ThE CDSes lose all value. They are only valuable in the case of default
Byz: No flipness received. Top Kush in West LA goes for $90 1/8 in the medical community.
Just, "damn!" That's a hell of a cash crop.
Mo,
Who's the defensive one? I'm secure with my deflationary arguments, not double-posting profane-laden attacks on others.
The CDSes are only an issue in the case that MBSes default. If we buy them up. there will be no default
"Funnily enough there is an opportunity for some kind of Ross Perot type party to emerge right now."
Funnily? That one sentence should scare the piss out of everyone.
This is how Hitler came into power.
Nehemiah Scudder in 2012.
(Robert A. Heinlein, Revolt_in_2100, written in 1949)
comrade anonymouse you have no understanding of math. this is inflationary
Wanda Sykes on Jay Leno: Bailout & Palin
YouTube -
Can tell most of you aren't die-hard Republicans. The guys I work with still believe Saddam had weapons of mass destruction and he was tight with Al Qaida. They still talk of Bush like he's a hero.
Bond Girl - they won't be hoarding cash. It'll go to salaries and benefits, golden parachutes, dividends, administrative expenses, and some of it will just go missing. It won't be loaned, it will just get spent. $700 billion and more.
Did anyone around here like the speech? There's gotta be at least one Bushbot still on message.
Well, I did say above that I was encouraged by his speech, because he didn't declare martial law.
Best I can do, sorry.
Bush needs to resign and let someone else handle the grownup stuff.
Well, I did say above that I was encouraged by his speech, because he didn't declare martial law.
Crying and laughing at the same time.
Mark Cuban (really rich guy who owns NBA Team) on Fox:
(Paraphrased)
"If bailout passes we will see a week or so uptick but then everyone will realize that nothing really changed"
people only hoard money if they have savings. they are only discouraged from taking out loans if they save 30% of their income like USA 1929 and japan 1990. Americans will borrow and default again and agai
Comrade Kona,
Nice link, but did someone use their camcorder focused on their tv like in the 80s?
Gold ........... flat
Bush didn't scare enough people ...
China asks local lenders not to lend to U.S. banks:report
wow...way to panic the rest of world Bush, Paulso
TARP =
Taxpayers Ass-Raped in Perpetuity
Mo: Borrow against what though? They get all the stuff and we have crappier jobs. What's our collateral going to be, our kidneys?
Here's the part where Bush tried to scare Americans into buying into the bailout by appealing to their selfish financial interests:
"The stock market would drop even more, which would reduce the value of your retirement account. The value of your home could plummet. Foreclosures would rise dramatically."
CSC-
I hear you...I basically told my wife to be VERY careful going out anywhere as this can get out of hand very quickly. People are finally waking up to this crap and now are in self-preservation mode......not that year's of excess made them any more aware of anyone but themselves however when you take the punch bowl away people will react and take it anyway.
I just feel that emails, faxes, phonecalls really don't convey what is needed....not that I have the answer but I feel powerless after I've exhausted those avenues. Guess I'm just venting outloud.
Hope you got cash......and stash.
We should do lunch one day.....you sound unlike a typical OC resident. I was born in SF valley so believe me I know what it's like in the orange curtain.
Ciao
MS
A little background material.
Fannie Mae Eases Credit To Aid Mortgage Lending - NYTimes.com
Yeah Bond Girl, Germany, Zimbabwe, Turkey, and every other country in the world had DEFLATION
Drawing parallels between banana republic economies and reserve currency economies is...not smart.
Deflation is next. Coupled with high interest rates.
After that has gone on for a few years and the reserver currency days are but a distant memory - only then will it be possible to get high inflation.
Comrade Bagholders,
Anyone got a link to CSC's youtube thing.
TIA
Nostrovia,
"The guys I work with still believe Saddam had weapons of mass destruction"
He did. We still have the receipts from when we sold them to him for use against Iran.
anonymouse,
my wife is 20 years old, no credit history. got a 10K limit on her card last week. I have bad credit! My limit is 3.5K because of high Debt/income ratio
Many have known the day of financial reckoning was coming, but I never thought it would be this bad. Suddenly Schadenfreude isn't much fun...
Raphael, I agree there are no specifics. Can you share a few of the examples you mention? I know the CR crowd would love to see them.
Thanks in advance.
She also got a 20K private student loan which we used to buy furniture.
People are finally waking up to this crap and now are in self-preservation mode...
Glad to hear it's that way at your house, MS anon. My husband is still Cleopatra, hands over ears, singing at the top of his lungs.
It's his money, so I try not to be too much of a noodge.
And that was on top of her 20K govt student loa
Mo,
You two sound like a smart couple NOT
HILARIOUS!!! Sarah Palin FIRING RIFLE on Jay Leno Tonight Show during Charles Gibson Interview
YouTube -
Watching the Simpson's Movie right now... The parallels to the clueless president handing over the reigns to the cabinet member with carte blanche are just sinking in. We need a Homer Simpson-like hero.
We are soooooo screwed.
hahaha, we'll see who is smart when the govt inflates my debt away
Raphael
Don't think you are the only one yapping away in the CR comments with access to actual data and/or internal models.
You are, at best, a potentially interesting n00b, so welcome.
what a mess.
no solution exists that anyone is going to like at all. time to eat that shitty, bitter humble pie.
oh, and get a lot poorer.
look at the overall mood of the comments over the last 6 months. it used to be a bit of a joke. we'd be disgusted by this or that, unhappy with something or other.
now you can sense the fear, frustration and anger through each thread.
good times... good times.
It's unsecured. She can default next week if she wants
Comrade Bagholder MS,
"you sound unlike a typical OC resident. I was born in SF valley so believe me I know what it's like in the orange curtain."
I grew up in the OC and live in the valley...go figure.
I still want to hit the dynamic duo with an ugly stick...no wait that would be innefective aa baseball bat.
Nostrovia,
Currently Smoking Cannabis writes:
It's a bad idea until a historic crash. Then it will be considered the "only idea." It will be passed in hours.
Currently Smoking Cannabis | Homepage | 09.24.08 - 10:09 pm | #
And a loadie is the only one here who gets it...
To those who disapprove of taxpayer money going toward a 'bailout' - I understand your angst but forget that line of reasoning... taxpayer money is going in SOMEWHERE at SOMETIME... Only question is where, when, how much & to whom.
It will go in to take over more failed banks (FDIC), fiscal stimulus like GM & Ford & 'rebate checks', increased borrowing costs for gov't due to weak credit markets and probably some sort of eventual equity buyout a la RTC II.
The only honesty Bush can be creditied with is he didn't try to pass it off to McCain - though I'm sure they've been trying... damn markets just wouldn't cooperate. So here you go kids - my parting shot.
There is going to be so damned much stimulus & bad debt monetization by the time this is done we probably won't recognize our economic terrain. 700B could end up the 'floor' not the ceiling.
I don't believe this bill is a panacea by any means but if you were here on CR and didn't see something like this coming a year ago you were smoking something a lot stronger than CSC. It was a done deal a year or two ago when real estate only went up...
The question I'd like to know is what comes next - to the 'real economy' of farms, factories, stores, services where most of us really work.
I have no idea... my guess is it will be rough regardless of what happens in DC this week.
What an embarrassment to all sentient beings.
The bailout is a good idea IF we can be sure that the bailed-out will begin lending with more capital at better terms to the consumer. Bond Girl is right; banks will hoard the cash, consumers won't get their credit lines renewed, and taxpayers will be stuck. We need confidence the banks will give credit.
Deflation where? Price of milk? eggs? gas? school? overnight stay in hospital? medical procedures? surgeon's fees?
Sara Palin vs Jay Leno - No Blinking Contest
YouTube -
deflation in the inside inflation on the border
Sarah Palin Back-To-School Locker Organizer
YouTube - Sarah Palin Back-To-School Locker Organizer
House prices will deflate until the rising tide of inflation catches up. Anything unnecessary will deflate. All necessary things will inflate in price. Food, energy, clothes, bus fare, car insurance, rent, etc...
Shrub-nut; Could be playin possum but I think he's in a corner.
Schmoe nailed it. Which means they are really skeered.
See what the "deal" is. Then we can argue over whether it's a trap or a concession.
oh, and get a lot poorer.
Ya I've been carping about that for a couple years here - just a question of how we get poorer... via weak dollar where we still work but for little gain in terms of purchasing or maintain dollar strength with very high and increasing unemployment.
Fun indeed.
i think anyone who voted for bush (especially those that voted for him twice) should have to pony up the money for the bail out. let them pay for their fucking mistake instead of all of us paying for it.
Deflation is next. Will drive bonds sky high.
credit lines are STILL AVAILABLE! I am bombarded by balance transfer junk mail!!!
--
"This is how Hitler came into power."
My forecast calls for an American Hitler to get elected in 2016 or 2020. We would need 5-10 years of serious pain for born-and-bred American dopes to figure out who the real evildoers for the American People are -- BFNYC. Yes, democracy would be the road for the American Hitler.
Those who dont learn from history
Jas
A 10k credit card and 2 tickets to a remote island sounds perfect.
CSC 1968,at best ice cream,1 oz "saigon Black" $8.00.Saigon black was opiated Thai Stick.I may have stopped smoking pot before you were born...
hahaha, I am short TLT bond girl. We'll see who has the last laugh!
Bond Girl,
You mean Treasuries, of course. Most bonds will default.
Short term (3-6 months) cash is king. Long term, cash is trash and you want to be 100% in hard assets and max debt.
Comrade dryfly,
No...stop it here...let it fail.
Sure gov't might then make money available...but shouldn't...but the trash is dead. THAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN.
After that let's discuss.
Sorry I don't believe the sun doesn't rise if these asshats get what's comming to them.
Nostrovia,
Mo writes:
Deflation where? Price of milk? eggs? gas? school? overnight stay in hospital? medical procedures? surgeon's fees?
Mo | Homepage | 09.24.08 - 10:51 pm | #
Deflation in 'credit'... inflation as fed & treasury 'monetize' those collapsing debts. We'll feel both unpleasant effects simultaneously.
denninger site is still up. Slow but still there.
hahaha, we'll see who is smart when the govt inflates my debt away...
Mo, let me put this in real simple, unambiguous terms:
You are fucked.
crap, should have stopped paying my mortgage and hoarded the cash
CSC, MS,
What's our collateral going to be, our kidneys?
YouTube - Charlie : Candy Mountain
If they want your kidneys, they'll just take them.
In the great depression the PRICE OF FOOD WAS THE FIRST THING TO FALL. They slaughtered animals to keep prices up. This is no great depression. This is weimar germany. Huge EXTERNAL debt
So what's the net result of this TV appearances?
How am I fucked? I can just default.
Comrade CSC,
Link to youtubage video from yesterday?
I got a bit splashed late on and had to be in Sacremento today.
Nostrovia,
Taking out huge unsecurd lines of credit is win win. If credit contracts (deflation)....credit is gone anyways. If inflation...debt is inflated away
Mo's linked homepage on all his posts above is a website which links, in turn, to bearish sites like patrick.net, Mish, Dr. Housing Bubble, and Mike Morgan, who all forsee deflation. I don't what kind of game he's playing.
Shock Doctrine anyone?
Yet another example of this most effective neocon criminal manuever...
Impeach, Convict, Execute!!
Someone please address how maxing out unsecured lines of credit is not win win? there are no debtors prisons. default is the national past time
"How am I fucked? I can just default."
It only works if you have the cash right now to live the rest of your life. Once the dust settles from this mess (2-10 years) no one will loan to you or your girlfriend ever. EVER.
Very classy of you to ruin your GF. Your credit will be easier to repair.
What's next, "the boogie man's going to get you"?
Eh, it's just a cycle folks. Granted a scary bad cycle but once passed, I'll meet you all back here in 2011-12.
Good hunting.
Deflation in 'credit'... inflation as fed & treasury 'monetize' those collapsing debts. We'll feel both unpleasant effects simultaneously.
I've been saying that forever. Inflation and deflation are not mutually exclusive. Nothing against the Austrians either.
The rich will feel asset deflation. the middle class will feel inflation (CPI).
--
"McCain Loses His Head"
Now, that is a first.
Born-and-bred American dopes only have a choice between an intellectual slave and a hothead. It is a challenge to elect "the lesser of two evils." Dopes like the game, though.
What a system!
Jas
MS: That would be chill. Are you the MS that used to work for TIC?
Comrade Misean: I did not record the video today. Fires.
"yes, if constituents continue to oppose it in their faxes and emails
Commissar 4822"
My congressman is Barney Frank. Do you think he'll listen to me?
Wait, so we are going to have deflation and then in 2 years credit will be important again?
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/china-asks-local-lenders-not/story.aspx?guid={389CCD2E-9D08-4A8B-A512-F1B3E0B0BE19}&dist=hplatest
If credit contracts it is taken away from everyone. EVEN MR PAYS BILLS ON TIME
dryfly, that seems to be the million dollar question around here.
i'm still of the thought that a deflationary period will come and be quite oppressive. debt is extremely destructive and NO MATTER what form this bailout comes in we are going to experience the same amount of deleveraging.
a true contraction in the money supply will not allow any inflation to exist. this certainly will mean unemployment levels higher then we are used to.
i suppose now the question is this: when america pushes to inflate everything in sight, maintain a leveraged position and steer clear of disaster, will the world follow??
i think not and that has me very very worried.
While I think that it sucks, I believe that the bill will pass. Actually, if you think about it, Bush and team did the correct thing in negotiations. If you want something, ask for the world and let the other team bargin you down to your desires. Bush and team want a bail out so they ask for the kitchen sink knowing that they would get a bail out with restrictions. Either way, my portfolio is ready for the bail out.
Muni bonds will go to hell
Comrade Bagholder CSC,
"Comrade Misean: I did not record the video today. Fires."
Copy that.
Nostrovia,
As a male, middle-aged, white-collar corporate cog, I tend towards prudence; I want neither to avert my eyes from the crisis and assume everything works out, nor run wild-eyed to my BofA branch and convert all my assets into gold and guns.
So I'm taking the middle course: $300 a day from the ATM, turning some of it into bags of rice and beans, stashing the rest. I'm thinking enough basic food for three months...probably wise anyway. If nothing else, folks could use this crisis as an excuse for preparing for generic disasters, like hurricanes or earthquakes.
If things get dodgier, I'll add a few cases of hard liquor, some cartons of cheap cigarettes, and a gross of condoms: trade goods which should be a decent hedge against hyperinflation for a few weeks, at which point I expect I will likely be ambushed and disemboweled by looters.
I no longer recognize the country I grew up in.
Mo, you are a no-class deadbeat. Worse, you're proud of yourself. I pity you.
sigh
George is the boy who cried wolf.
I hear a lot of people (including congressmen) talking about how Bush used fear and doubt to push the Iraq vote though right before elections.
With zero crediblity left, I don't think a meaningfull bill will get passed.
We all know what happened to the boy in the wolf story. The sheepeople get eaten.
I wanna second (third?) the notion - anybody new to this watching Bush has gotta be freaked. Wouldn't be surprised to see runs on the bank, 401k's, IRAs...
The other part that got me is - he talked about the bad loans, then talked about greasing the system - that the solution is to get banks to loan "families and business" money.
Dude, didn't you just say the problem was too much lending?
Mo,
There are debtors prisons. The over priced over taxed house that they want to keep you in at all costs.
They need the cash flow and will even take a haircut with cramdowns.
Arbeit Macht Frei!
There's a job at an investment bank somewhere for you, Mo. Oh, wait.... LOL. Good night, folks. You are a real treat as always.
The backlash, in phone calls as well as e-mail messages, is putting lawmakers in a quandary as they weigh what many regard as the most consequential decision of their careers: whether to agree to President Bushs request to spend an estimated $700 billion in taxpayer money to rescue the financial services system.
Lawmakers Constituents Make Their Bailout Views Loud and Clear
Lawmakers' Constituents Make Their Bailout Views Loud and Clear - NY Times
Misean - I've always said I could tolerate 'reinflation' - but only via a true RTC like mechanism... the equity needs to be wiped out & the perps have to walk the plank... THEN let the FDIC or RTC liquidate what remains.
But first wipe them out.
And I'm as big a bleeding heart as there ever was - if we are going to spend money to help folks then help them get an apt after they are foreclosed & rebuild credit, see to it affordable basic health care is available, see to it kids can still go to school, don't let people starve.
But the institutions like GS & MS aren't people. We shouldn't be feeding them nor their pigman captains. How liberals have gone from saving people from Hooverville to saving the mini-McMansions blows me away.
I don't recognize 'my own people'...
whooo hoooo! a "I voted for Gore and Kerry" double tax credit. I'm for that. Only voted for one of them: single credit.
Excise Tax on those who voted for Reagan, and Bush II.
Inflation is the best time to go into debt, but it only works if your wages/investments keep up.
I think I would rather default on a mortgage than a student loan, I've heard stories.
Once the dust settles from this mess (2-10 years) no one will loan to you or your girlfriend ever. EVER.
Oh whatever, spare the morality lecture. They'll write it down and he'll be just another casualty of the downturn. One that never FCed a half-million dollar house.
I wonder why Bush forgot to mention that during the run up in house prices and astronomical debt that he was exalting the brave new era of The Ownership Society?
So someone with a some video editing software could intersperse W's critique of what got us to this crisis with his bragging about The Ownership Society. Not that our leader needs any further dismantling of his reputation but it could be kind of funny.
He can tell that the blame train is coming and he definitely trying to get out of the way for the sake of the future of the Republican party. And by "he" I mean his speech writer. Gearge W the person checked out a long time ago.
--
"The rich will feel asset deflation. the middle class will feel inflation (CPI)."
Angry Saver,
That is what most think and most never think right. My forecast is for outright CPI deflation next year led by demand destruction (gasoline demand off 8%, YoY).
Happy Saver,
Jas
Ruh roh
WASHINGTON, Sept 24 (Reuters) - U.S. congressional Democrats and Republicans plan to meet on Thursday to draft a final bipartisan Wall Street bailout bill, a Democratic source said on Wednesday night.
"Not too many unresolved issues remain," the source said.
The source spoke after meetings earlier in the day by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and members of the House of Representatives and Senate.
House and Senate Democrats, along with some Republican committee members, intend "to sit down at 10 a.m. (1400 GMT) tomorrow to draft a final bipartisan bill to be passed and signed into law," the Democratic source said.
Earlier on Wednesday, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd emerged from a meeting with Paulson and other Democratic senators saying there was no deal yet on a financial bailout bill, but he expressed optimism one could come soon.
"We're not there yet," Dodd told reporters, adding there was a "good possibility we'll get there in a day or so."