"Review" as if she gave a damn about anything anybody would say about it?

I hate when politicians pull this stunt.

I'm not sure Pelosi will like the feedback, but I like that she thinks we should get to see it first.

Best to all.

It's almost like they don't want to pass any bill??

Transparency? Who would have thunk it? Yay dems!

This might be her way of getting cover to vote no.

Pelosi to bloggers: "Bring 'em on!"

CR- "I'm not sure Pelosi will like the feedback, but I like that she thinks we should get to see it first."

CR, I think she's afraid, and she should be.

This may be the first time I have felt respect for that woman.

like one day on the internets means anything if we cant nudge it in the slightest

I hope the supply side repukes have not screwed this deal up. If there is no preferred equity ownership... I will be more than upset. Twenty eight years of supply side trickle down economics is more than this wage slave can take.

Did Pelosi just pull an FDR? "Now go out and make me (not) do it"...

If Dems can't get what they want, they can hide behind public opinion--sort of the same game the House Republicans tried. Methinks Pelosi read some of the faxes we sent.

It isn't 'transparency' when they trot it around the room once after all the deals have been made behind closed doors. It is a sham. It is a dishonest thing. The theory is that it lets the public vent... highway departments and planning agencies do this over and over and over. They hold 'public hearings' with no intent whatsoever of responding to anything anybody says.

Mel writes:
This might be her way of getting cover to vote no.

Mel | 09.27.08 - 8:42 pm | #

No, it's her way of applying pressure to (R)'s to cut this deal tonight, since the vote "must" take place Monday morning.

This way, she'll try to blame the (R)'s if the deal isn't brokered until the 11th hour and we all find the pork after it's been voted in.

I can't help but think this is a negotiation and grandstanding ploy.

Either she wants to get commitment on current momentum, or cover for a no.

A Day? She's giving us a day?
I emailed my sentiments to Pelosi on Wednesday and I ecourage everyone else to do the same, let you voice be heard!

So we get to take a look at the noose?

I'm not sure I'm up for that.

Republicans don't want to put $700B of taxpayer money "at risk." They prefer to waste it outright in an unjust war and enriching Big Oil.

Both are boondoggles: neither Iraq nor Paulson's Putsch will be repaid.

"It isn't 'transparency' when they trot it around the room once after all the deals have been made behind closed doors."

And this is most apt for CR: the common name for trotting it around is: "Dog and Pony show.

Gingrich calls for Paulson to resign:

"But Gingrich had harsh words for President Bush, who he said doesn’t understand the situation, and for Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who the former speaker said — for the first time — should resign.

"The former Georgia congressman also demanded that the final version of be bill be posted on the Internet for 24 hours before Congress votes on the package.

"“That will let you flush out the kind of hidden, secret deals that crop up, that the press finds two weeks after something’s been voted on,” he said.

Atlanta Metro News | ajc.com 

yep she must be afraid, when you look back to this monster it's just scaring.

Wow - Pelosi has more faith in illiterate Americans than I do.

As an illiterate scanner of CR, I'll do my best to understand the details.

I'm sure CR (and Tanta?) will help us.

"The former Georgia congressman also demanded that the final version of be bill be posted on the Internet for 24 hours before Congress votes on the package."

Website to track individual expeditures, posting emergency legislation on the internet ahead of time. These sound like the actions of an honest democracy.

Bailout failure 'will cause US crash’
The US stock market could suffer a devastating crash with shares losing a third of their value this week if Hank Paulson’s financial bailout plan fails, US Treasury officials have warned.

By Tim Shipman in Washington and Edmund Conway
Last Updated: 11:47PM BST 27 Sep 2008

There was a rare Saturday session of Congress on the bailout package Photo:
The financial system could face a meltdown of 1929 proportions unless US politicians succeed in their efforts for a $700bn rescue scheme, experts added

Bailout failure 'will cause US crash'
- Telegraph

I'm clairvoyant. I don't like it.

the public debt is topping 9 trillions
we pay 250b on interest a year and we have a 160b deficit (for 2007)

They are about to kill medicaid

Bulls make money, Bears make money, and pigs...

... get bailouts.

Sigh.

I sure hope they're looking for cover to kill it, rather than trying to appease everyone by claiming "we let everyone review it and this was the best we could do". Which is BS. The best they could do would be to try to stop pouring money into a broken system, and finally get around to fixing the system.

Looks like we have the Brits scared!

Reuters reporting that part of the Dermocrats' plan is a brand-new tax on Wall Street!  
[via DRUDGE].

That's called being unclear on the concept! As I said the other day, the Democrats in Congress don't understand what problem they're supposed to be solving, and they can't help reverting to bad habits. It's deeply saddening, to say the least.

I really hope there is a huge anti-incumbent wave when this thing passes, like in 1994.

Its great that Pelosi says she wants us to review it, but in the next breath she says that Congress will stay in session until they pass it.

You can have your Model T in any color, as long as its black.

....The financial system could face a meltdown of 1929 proportions unless US politicians ...

Telegraph | Error 404 | Sorry, the page you have requested is not available crash.html

crispy&cole | Homepage | 09.27.08 - 8:53 pm | #

The only thing I can think of that's worse than the MSM is the British MSM.

But hell, I thought the crash would happen Friday. It'll either be this Monday or eight Monday's from now...

bitch scambling for cover.

ju writes:
the public debt is topping 9 trillions

The public debt is $5.7 trillion, the rest is govt IOUs to the Social Security trust fund.

Angry Renter it's still debt

I read somewhere today that there were protest marches across the Golden Gate bridge opposing the bailout today. Isn't that Pelosi's district?

Pelosi is up for re-election in 5 weeks as well folks!

As a lefty liberal, pinko, communist, Maxwell House FRENCH Roast drinking, Audi driving, San Francisco-type Democrat living in Michigan, I propose all Democrats in Congress should wait for their GOP Confederates to vote first. If the GOP can deliver 150 votes in the House, we evil fascist liberals will support the GOP bailout of Wall St.

Otherwise: Meltdown, baby, meltdown.

Interesting Take on Bailout Talk:

TPMCafe | Talking Points Memo | Is the Crisis Real?

Gist of the article is that all the talk of the bailout is actually causing the credit freeze. Why get raped by guys like Buffet when the Gov't will give you a free ride?

The public debt is $5.7 trillion, the rest is govt IOUs to the Social Security trust fund.
Angry Renter | 09.27.08 - 8:57 pm | #

doesn't that just mean that it's owed to american citizens instead of foreign central banks?

The US stock market could suffer a devastating crash with shares losing a third of their value this week if Hank Paulson’s financial bailout plan fails, US Treasury officials have warned.

I'd rather have a quote from someone OUTSIDE the U.S. Treasury office. Hank Paulson is warning about voting against his own plan.

Let's hear some third party opinions on this.

Put the PDF out on the web. This dumb band aid should be funny as hell. Poor Nanacy, doesn't realize that 3.2 Trillion is a bare minimum figure just to cover the Credit Defauly Swap nonesense. Maybe 7 Trillion solves the whole problem in the USA, but of course we are in a global interconnected economy, so really 15 trillion is the figure. But 700 billion will carry the McCain camp through election day!

Reuters is reporting that the Democrats in Congress have proposed Reuters is reporting that the Democrats in Congress have proposed a a new tax on Wall Street as part of their plan!

Talk about being unclear on the concept! As I said the other day, not only don't the Democrats in Congress understand what problem they're supposed to be solving, but they keep reverting to bad habits. It's deeply saddening, to say the least.

I just sent an email to Pelosi.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi | Contact Us 

Everyone try please.

Here was my lame attempt.

2 weeks to decide how to spend 700B of OUR tax dollars?

Why are no economists such as Nouriel Roubini, who predicted this crisis 12 months ago and has laid out a well thought-out bailout proposal being contacted?

Why are the people who created this disaster being given OUR tax dollars to solve it?

Why are we not looking at other solutions that have been tried in Europe?

This bill WILL NOT solve this crisis, result in sky high interest rates, increase our dependence on foreign buyers of US treasuries and not resolve our basic issue of a Country that is addicted to debt.

I don't think Democrats OR Republicans understand the amount of anger out here in Main Street towards this bill.

Outsider writes:
I'm clairvoyant. I don't like it.
Outsider | 09.27.08 - 8:54 pm | #

ROTFLOL.

Where's Carnak? Anybody with mad skillz up to rendering his view on this?

Pretty dang responsible on her part. This ought to happen for everything.

Angry Renter it's still debt

Yeah but we only tap capital markets for $5.7 trillion.

My friend told me an old Boston political story -

This negotiation is like when I went to the Boston Garden and both fighters were being paid to lose the fight.

Sorry for the re-post. (Impeach Haloscan!)

I don't think Democrats OR Republicans understand the amount of anger out here in Main Street towards this bill.

Pissed in Califoria? You have a lot of nerve opposing this bill.

Where's Carnak? Anybody with mad skillz up to rendering his view on this?

Exit | 09.27.08 - 9:01 pm | #

There's gotta be an Ed McMahon foreclosure joke there somewhere... I'll keep looking.

Ah crap. McCain already said he hadn't read the Paulson plan. If they put it on the internet there is no way he'll be able to find it.

As for Pelosi. I like that you want to give the american people 24 hours to review how they spend $700 billion. I was worried we hadn't dumbed down the american public enough. You have quelled my fears.

Maybe we should have a new law where people only have 24 hours to decide on the house they want to buy, apply for and review their financing options and then have to make a decision on whether or not to buy.

All that said, vote for Sarah Palin. She is doubleplusgood.

$700B is 1/8 of the non SS debt. That's a big increment in a short time.

I emailed my sentiments to Pelosi on Wednesday and I ecourage everyone else to do the same, let you voice be heard!
girlbear
~~~

really, all I got was a constituant only remark ...

do you have the web address or do you live in SF?

CSpan won't get you there ....

Speaker Nancy Pelosi | Contact Us  for Pelosi Contact

That's right SRC. Seems that we are dealing with a credit crunch by slamming stretched capital markets with new borrowing that just diverts capital from the productive sector to a bunch of failed banks.

My greatest hope is that the Dems would grow a pair and stand with the 150 House Republicans and the few Dems who think this Bill is a total POS that needs to be scrapped in its' entirety.

If that can't happen, I hope they'll use McCains' suggestion of capping CEO pay for those firms that choose to participate at 400K.

Methinks a 400K cap on CEO pay would be enough to discourage any private entity from participating in the rape of the american taxpayer.

this debt should stay in the intragovernmental and be pay off over time

This will turn out to be the biggest looting in financial history. Along with all that toxic crap bought up by the US Govt, will be some real gems that will be sold off by Hank for cents on the dollar to his Pig Men mates at auction. I would say hundreds of billions worth.

The Treasury/Govt/Taxpayer will be stiffed with all that toxic crap nobody will ever want.

Nice one Hank.

Sent an email thanking her for the review time. Hey anytime to review a bill before it is voted on is great in my books. If it is too much reading I am sure we can get a few volunteers to parallel process it so we have a timely full analysis.

Don't the brits have an excise tax on deriative transactions. Don't they make billions off The City of London with this tax? Is this what the Dems are calling for?

El Cliffo -- what do you know about this and reasons why it won't work? Seems interesting, tell me why this shouldn't be considered.

mmckinl has been arguing for a GD-style bank holiday and audit, and closure of the insolvent institutions. That's looking more and more attractive to me.

I can just see the "new math" textbooks they're going to have to come out with now:

If a country is $10 trillion in debt, and they approve an extra $700 billion bailout, how much will every man, woman and child have to pay in increased taxes per year to sustain their economy?

Right on Nancy! "Let's see the Beef before the Bailout."

Three pages takes McCain a week (and still counting). And we only get one day? Guess that says something about McCain.

"Transparency" best refers to the clothes these clowns are wearing.

The emergency seems to be quite real but I'm happy to say a lot of us are holding hands as we let the ship sink with the financiers lashed to the mast. Can't live forever. Fiat money always dies this way.

I still want to see Paulsonstein genuflecting and begging Pelosi. Now there'a youtube moment to savor.

...... been arguing for a GD-style bank holiday and audit, and closure of the insolvent institutions. That's looking more and more attractive to me.
SRC
~~~~~~~~~

It's the only way to get trust back into the system.

Anything less is chicken lips ...

Why do we not talk about means testing for Social Security and Medicare ?

Wow a whole day!

this debt should stay in the intragovernmental and be pay off over time

American workers get worthless Social Security IOUs but I'm afraid the Chinese will demand cash payments. Probably at significantly higher rates than we're paying currently.

This detail from ethe reuter's story on a tax proposal sounds good to me. The Repubs said that wall St and not the tax payer should pay for the bailout. Okay, fine. Here's how. Too bad you didn't stick with the agreement on Frank/Dodd on Thursday. From the Reuters story:

U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, speaking to reporters after a meeting with fellow Democrats, said the fee could be assessed after five years if the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office determined taxpayers had lost money in the bailout.

"If after five years ... the CBO decides that the American taxpayer has lost money in this, then there would be a fee on financial institutions," Pelosi said, adding that she hoped the provision could be part of a final bailout deal.

Won't mean didly squat. It's a done deal.

10 to 1, the last call every congress critter made on Friday before the close was to their broker. You don't think they live on what we pay them, do you?

Oh, like a national day of mourning...!

Angry renters
we are talking about the gov debt not the full external debt

CDG

means testing ? I paid my money into SSI and I want what's coming, same with medicare.

Why don't we means test the rich by taxing them more ...

I agree with MP on this one, she is afraid. President Bush also seemed afraid in his address to the nation. John McCain's body language seemed to indicate fear as well during the debate. Barack Obama was inscrutable. I think that the populace is frightened by these events and has converted that fear into anger.

People are looking for someone to blame for all this turmoil and that is not healthy. Let us be careful that no scapegoats are chosen because we are afraid and angry. This crisis is worldwide and although it was made by men, men may not have very good solutions for it. We have to improvise, innovate and muddle through, just as we have always done.

If we are to have no regrets about how we handle this then let us think before we lash out in anger.

These are just my impressions for what's it worth.

American people and members of Congress to review the legislation on the Internet

The Mother of All Internet Crashes...AKA, Cr vis count calculated by ISDA

One more gripe and I'm through.

I propose that anyone who has the "congress hairdo" should be ineligible for re-election. If your hair is so coiffed that it looks like it will break if you touch it, you've been in Washington too long.

I guess that's a thing with politicians, judging from the white braids they used to wear. Must be a personality type.

Okay, thank you, carry on.

CDG,

SS and Medicare is already means tested. The camel's nose is under the tent.

10 to 1, the last call every congress critter made on Friday before the close was to their broker. You don't think they live on what we pay them, do you?
Ross
~

they just vote themselves a bigger pension, probably fine print in the deal ....

Even though we predicted as much months and months ago, the partisan recriminations in the posts really are eye-opening.

Why is it always someone else's fault when reality doesn't match your personal narrative of "how things should be". Doessn't the lack of assuming personal responsibility for one's own life a large part of what got us here in the first place?

The gov't cannot save you from yourself. Partisan hack blog posters, especially those who have only recently discovered CR have been thoroughly used (up). I pity the hatred, but eyes are being opened daily now.

Both parties are the same on a nat'l level. Re-election is all that matters, and you are their tool. Congratulations.

tbapple-

Of course they don't want to pass this! Unlike the other WS Bailouts, notably the Fannie/Freddie last month, people _are_watching this time.

The Dems will look really_ BAD_ when they come out full force for this one like they did on HR3221 because PEOPLE ARE WATCHING this time. They NEED the Repubs. on board to share the blame and, so far, the Repubs aren't budging.

CR, I have to disagree with you on this one. That we the people might have the opportunity to read the legislation before Congress votes on it is meaningless. If those on the Hill were listening to their constituents, Secretary Paulson's proposal would have died an early death. On the other hand, if one includes within the definition of "constituents" those on Wall Street, then Congress is indeed heeding the call of at least some of its constituents.

wtf can i do during or after the 24 hr review period?
What's the point in showing us the bill if its going to passed anyway?

What a farce. Dems hand in hand with Bush pretending to pay attention to the will of the people.

Nothing in this world could stop Pelosi from voting yes. Gotta keep the debt growing so they can pretend keep spending on pet projects.

That anyone can support either of these parties is dumbfounding.

I thought Nancy Reagan said it best, "JUST SAY NO!"

I told my daughter the same thing.

If a version of the HP plan is going to be implemented, I hope that there are punitive equity stakes for Treasury. That would at least partly disincentive future misbehavior.

mmckinl: perhaps part of the reluctance to aggressively shut insolvent institutions is that FDIC can't afford to cover the depositor losses. That consideration was an issue in the sale of WaMu --- according to a link at CR's sidebar, FDIC pre-empted senior debtholders in a hasty sale rather than a liquidation of WaMu's assets to protect its 9FDIC's) own assets. The author of that piece warned that it will be harder in the future for banks to issue debt, since purchasers have a new risk to worry about -- instant cramdown in an FDIC siezure.

CDG writes:
Why do we not talk about means testing for Social Security and Medicare ?

OK, let's talk about that at the same time we talk about opt-out.

key key key

"...for the American people and members of Congress to review...."

The tax is a bad idea. Why should prudent banks have to pay for this mess any more than the rest of us? The responsible banks should to be screaming.

Did you guys see the letter from the CEO of BB & T? Pretty remarkable, there's a .pdf and coverage here:

Bad Deal? BB&T chief takes issue with bailout

This new tax proposal doesn't solve any fiscal or banking problem at all, but it does finally admit that the taxpayer will lose money on the bailout deal. The Democrats don't understand that the voters' message is "Don't blow our cash on trash," and not "Tax the rich."

So easy to know who to blame.
Bush, Paulson, Republicans and all the other Wall Street pigs.

There will be blood in the streets before this is over

mmckinl@9:15 In total agreement.

Yes Rubin did nothing to help move this along.

Cliffo

I thought the message was Wall St has to pay for our need to pull the financial system out of the crapper.

That's what the repub leadership said.

The tax looks right to me. A good back-up plan behind equity warrants.

El Cliffo,

The 1%ers broke it.
We have to fix it.
They have to pay for it.
We have to make sure of it.

SRC

The FDIC definitely needs more money ... better spending bailing out depositors than banksters.

Just a thought:

If the first "installment" is small -- $250B has been in view --- it may still be possible to implement a more aggressive (as in rooting out the rotten enterprises from the system) after the election.

I'm guessing that we're going to have Democratic control of the presidency and certainly of Congress next year. Perhaps they will resort to GD-style measures.

The Big Kahuna:

I'm not sure Pelosi will like the feedback, but I like that she thinks we should get to see it first.

Agreed. Even if it's just the appearance of seeking popular support, this is monumental.

People can say what they want about how the fix is in -- I have my own feelings that I don't want to explore at length -- but having done this once, they'll have to do it again and better from here on out.

tax on Wall Street

It's called STET

Short memories, folks!

------ quote follows:

Published on Friday, September 26, 2008 by CommonDreams.org
How Wall Street Can Bail Itself Out Without Destroying The Dollar

by Thom Hartmann

... there's another way: Create an agency to fund the bailout, loan that agency the money from the treasury, and then have that agency tax Wall Street to pay us (the treasury) back.

It's been done before, and has several benefits.

In the United Kingdom, for example, whenever you buy or sell a share of stock (or a credit swap or a derivative, or any other activity of that sort) you pay a small tax on the transaction. We did the same thing here in the US from 1914 to 1966 (and, before that, we did it to finance the Spanish American War and the Civil War).

For us, this Securities Turnover Excise Tax (STET) was a revenue source. For example, if we were to instate a .25 percent STET (tax) on every stock, swap, derivitive, or other trade today, it would produce - in its first year - around $150 billion in revenue. Wall Street would be generating the money to fund its own bailout. (For comparison, as best I can determine, the UK's STET is .25 percent, and Taiwan just dropped theirs from .60 to .30 percent.)

But there are other benefits.

As John Maynard Keynes pointed out in his seminal economics tome, The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money in 1936, such a securities transaction tax would have the effect of "mitigating the predominance of speculation over enterprise."....

when you owe the bank $1000 you have a problem
when you owe the bank $1m they have a problem
when the banks owes the country $100 billion the country has a problem
when the country owes our kids $700 billion our kids have a problem

Note the similarity to the idea that if we charged five cents per email message, spamming would no longer be profitable.

Speculators equal spammers? Yeaah!

The republican plan:
table banks bid on a pool of the bad assets and pay for government insurance on the bad assets up to $300 billion.
Is this a correct interpretation???

anonymous

-sad but true

But 24 hrs to review will make it better.

STET might also put some "molasses" in the trading activity, which might be a good thing.

I just got an email from my friends telling me if I don't start saying things in a language they all understand, they're just going to delete and ignore every message I send. Great answer - head in the sand. Since when did laziness become such an awesome pasttime?

It's the Wall Street Banks and Investment Banks tat created this mess. They should be the ones to pay for it.

hope antitrust says no to Goldman or is it done. They get to opt in after never having had to contribute .... f 'em

10 to 1, the last call every congress critter made on Friday before the close was to their broker. You don't think they live on what we pay them, do you?

Ross | 09.27.08 - 9:14 pm | #

True story:

March/April-ish 2000 there was a major drop in the DOW. I didn't follow the market at all back then so don't remember the exact date or final point loss, but I want to say it was around 500-600 down.

Before the markets opened that day I was in Rep. Joseph Crowley (Dem, 7th Dist, NY) Capitol Hill office doing tech work.

Capitol Hill offices have TV's mounted all over with the CSPAN feed. Until that morning, I had just assumed it was a close-circuit feed, because not once in my 2 years experience in a dozen other CapHill Congressional offices had I ever seen one of these TV's showing anything besides CSPAN.

Well, this one morning, before the markets opened on a huge down day, all of Crowley's TV's were tuned to CNBC. This was very very strange. Odder still, I thought, were that the few more senior staffers (who actually made salaries higher then Crowley I'm told) were VERY nervously on the phone with their own brokers. liquidating (or at least the PC I was there to fix couldn't be worked on because the guy was logged into his brokerage account).

I should look up the specifics, but the DOW dropped huge that day and I vividly remember J6P's surprise that evening.

If I'm lying, I welcome the lawsuit and look forward to Discovery! I am vague on the precise date (shortly before I converted from being an Idealist to Realist), but it was the big-drop day from that period.

O'k, so when you read that bloomberg article, you are left with a nasty putrid taste in your mouth. What in the world is going on here. A-hole paulson is arguing against the concept of executive pay limits! Who is this moron working for, wall street or the people? This is what I've been ranting about. This shouldn't be a political/lobbyist type of negotiation. This plan should be constructed by the brightest minds in economics, not a bunch of politicians who wouldn't even know how to balance a check book. Just think about it. Paulson is arguing against protecting the taxpayer! He should be dragged out of office and thrown in jail.


It's the Wall Street Banks and Investment Banks tat created this mess. They should be the ones to pay for it.

Those new fees will be on all banks and will get passed on to us savers and investors. Far better to just let Wall Street collapse and force Paulson to resign.

Translation: "This is a stickup!"

Hey Brian, thanks for the story.

I'm frugal as all hell but I could't live on the straight salaries that congress is paid.

I want to pay them each 2 mil a year. It would be interesting to watch the transition.

No, no, STET was-- and could be again -- a tiny fee on securities/futures/bets just to make sure there's some cost for making bets in that market. It worked fine for a very long time.

It was discontinued recently.

Bring it back!

Think of it as starting up a Social Security program for securities market participants.

Those new fees will be on all banks and will get passed on to us savers and investors.

Great point!

What mmckinl said.
BAC and JPM should say "put up or shut up to" GS. Self-interested to be sure, but buying CFC and WM at least kept the house of cards from collapsing immediately. Hell, BAC and JPM can even say they saved the depositors without sucking (too much) the public teat. Paulson has already been questioned about his GS ties--he should be hammered for that.

Those new fees will be on all banks and will get passed on to us savers and investors. Far better to just let Wall Street collapse and force Paulson to resign.
Angry Renter
~

sorry not buying in. banks that minded their business should not have to pay for the real criminals .... the banksters of Wall Street aka The Clearing House Criminals LLC

Ross-
You can't live on what congress is paid and you say you're frugal as hell? Give me a break.

on the proposal to use a tax as a backup to warrants to make sure the taxpayer doesn't lose money on the bailout, let me remind you of this statement, copied from Bloomberg news:

``We will not agree to a bill that bails out Wall Street at the expense of taxpayers,'' said House Republican leader John Boehner of Ohio.

Boehner should have more careful about his duplicitous demands, for he really did not want Wall St to pay. He couldhave accepted thursday's Frank/Dodd bill, but nooooooooo.

Now he has to eat this potential tax on Wall St or eat his words of concern about the tax paying citizenry footing the bill.

I think this is why pelosi wants the bill out in public for a day.

Hell, BAC and JPM can even say they saved the depositors without sucking (too much) the public teat. Paulson has already been questioned about his GS ties--he should be hammered for that.
skewed...
~

early days my friend , JP and BAC are neck deep in derivatives and are card carrying members of the Bankster Clearing House LLC.

SSI is a resource & income based program--you have to be low income to receive it, either retired & low income or disabled & low income.

The SSI program keeps quite a few older women from starving (or they starve more slowly) since typically women have been paid less & had fewer years in which they worked (worked for pay, raising kids is work) but live longer than men & so are more likely to outlive what small savings they have been able to accumulate. It's a good program if you think that people, who may have worked quite hard during their lives (but just not made much money) shouldn't be allowed to starve or die in the street. That was its original purpose, now quite a few people receive SSI because they're disabled & very low income.

It's Title XVI of the Social Security Act &, like Medicaid, was part of the Great Society program. I'd guess that's one reason why the Bushies & much of the GOP hate it & can't wait to say we "can't afford it".

Social Security disability insurance benefits (SSDI)& retirement benefits are not--unless you work from retirement age to 70 (maybe less than 70, Clinton changed the rules a bit). During that time period, if you earn over X dollars (amount increases every year, your retirement benefit is reduced dollar for dollar. After 70, you can earn as much as you want w/no reduction in cash benefit. The limit applies to earned income only--if you are disabled and receive SSDI (Social Security disability insurance benefits) or you receive retirement benefits, you could also have $50,000 or more in dividend income and you'd still receive your full benefit, as long as it's unearned income (classified as ssa as "unearned income"). What you get is based on what you paid in.
Check this info at Social Security Online - The Official Website of the U.S. Social Security Administration

Regarding this bail-out--I don't understand why we can't afford single payer national health care insurance but we can "afford" this. I do know that, with all these bailouts, the Bushies & GOP have made sure that there will be no funding for any "social" or other useful gov't program. Forget federal research into & regulation of toxics, forget federal assistance in upgrading water treatment plants, sewage treatment plants, infrastructure repair, improving & expanding a national passenger rail system, high speed rail, NIH & other scientific research funding (unless it's weapons), or anything that might actually benefit someone other then members Bush's economic/social class or those cater to them (lobbyists, etc.).

I think it's time for another Constitutional Convention myself. Or maybe we can simply secede from the union, one state at a time.

"I'm frugal as all hell but I could't live on the straight salaries that congress is paid."

It's funny. When I worked IT for Congress, I lived in a very nice house with a roomate. 9th St, SE, one block off Pennsylvania Ave.

Rent was $2500/mo, split 3 ways (we sub-let a cottage house in the back).

My salary then (2000) was $29,000/year. Happiest years of my life.

look at the link I posted about the tax proposal. It is not a STET tax to be imposed now. It is a provison for a tax to be applied in 5 years if the CBO says the govt lost money on the bailout. It is conditional, for the future. It is taxpayer protection

Brian, you are likely thinking of April 14; a 600+ point down day, preceded by drops the previous two days. It also retraced the fall completely over the next 5 days.

My guess is you experienced nothing more than what the ordinary J6P would if we tried explaining what we know.

They are about to kill medicaid
ju | 09.27.08 - 8:54 pm | #

________________________________-
Yep, this was the GOP's and Grover Norquist's plan all along.

So, Hank agrees to 'warrants' from companies receiving help. Why didn't they go the 'preferred stock' route?

I am amazed the The Speaker's proposal to let the american people look at this for 24 hours is treated as news. Think of it, the biggest ripoff in our history and we get a whole 24 hours to review it on the net before they cram it down our throats. And we are supposed to be grateful! God save us.

So, Hank agrees to 'warrants' from companies receiving help. Why didn't they go the 'preferred stock' route?
Baca
~~~

Why didn't we get the deal that Buffet got ?

"
One Republican said that the message from government officials is that “the economy is dropping into the john.” He added: “We could see falls of 3,000 or 4,000 points on the Dow [the New York market that currently trades at around 11,000]. That could happen in just a couple of days"

I say, bring it on. Isn't that just a reset back to 1999 (or 2002) or something? so what??? if company valuations go down to 1999 that isn't the end of the world.

Maybe the last 30% of equity valuation is just a chimera. So lop it off.

Or maybe we can simply secede from the union, one state at a time.
azurite | 09.27.08 - 9:43 pm | #


Sarah and Todd Palin like that idea.

Update (9:20 p.m.):

No wonder why things keep getting more complicated! The New York Times is reporting that nine Democrats showed up to the negotiations, surprising Republicans who sent only Rep. Roy Blunt and Senator Judd Gregg. At one point Democratic Sentor Max Bacchus started shouting at Paulson over executive pay caps. (Paulson is presumably smart enough to know this would mean Wall Street executives wouldn't play ball.) Latest word from the NYT: "lawmakers said they hoped to reach an agreement by Sunday night, in time for the opening of the markets in Asia." Hoping, of course, is not a strategy.

Hanging by a thread

read it again... she said if it passed today we'd get a look ...

is everybody missing this or am I wrong ?

I sense progress.

Not to going to matter. The velocity of this change an the accompanying information is speeding up geometrically.

The is not your Grandfathers bank failure. This is economic meltdown at a speed far greater than anyone or any firm can comprehend.

Since the past spring we have gone from being stunned at write-offs in the single digit billions to three figure billions.

Mortgage companies
Banks
Investment Brokers

and soon

Pension Funds

Hi folks. I'm not sure if I'll make it for Christmas but I promise to be there by next summer. I'm looking forward to eating your delicious 401ks.
Tootles!

Congress is going to force us to eat it regardless, but Pelosi's going to let us smell it before she and Chris Dodd and Barney Frank and Chuck Schumer and the Republicans force it down our throats. Enjoy your sniffing tomorrow!

mmcknl

you've read it wrong. if the working group comes up with a compromise proposal that they accept, then it gets released tonight and voted on tomorrow.

i just called feinstein's sf office and the answering service seems to have been overwhelmed.

we need to keep the pressure up on this shills for Wall Street

Nova

bank holiday

the only way to stop the dominoes ...

But no one has truly defined the problem which this bill is supposed to solve.
Without the problem clearly defined including the need for such urgency, no one can make an infomed decision.
Thus, the only "vote" I can make is no.

ANY economic reprisal against the banks or other institutions will be paid by the saver, investor or other "little guy" in the form of higher fees. It will get passed on, no way to prevent it.

STET tax is just a fancy way to shoot yourself in the foot.

Well, I was going to wait til the dow went below 10,000 to buy back in with my pittance, but I guess I will change that to 9000, or possibly 8000.

I wrote to Pelosi. Thx to the threadster above who posted the address.

Under the Radar with the 700 billion taking center stage

Congress Approves Auto-Industry Loans, Defense Budget

Congress Approves Auto-Industry Loans, Defense Budget (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
The U.S. Congress gave final approval to legislation providing the auto industry with $25 billion in loans, lifting an offshore oil-drilling ban and funding the government until the next president takes office.

mmckinl writes:
Nova

bank holiday

the only way to stop the dominoes ...

Soon, but not soon enough I think.

joe shmoe

what if they don't come to an agreement tonight ?

Why@zirp

so savers and citizens do better when there are no or minimal regulations or taxes on wall st . . . oh, wait, that's how we got in this mess!

I can accept a crash or bailout with provisions for certain, eventual, taxpayer profit. Let's choose our poison wisely.

Lawyerliz,
Please don't rush. The DOW index will soon be sold door to door. A representative should be calling on you shortly.

5% aint nuthin,
DOW 7000

These people are not youngsters. They will need to sleep. Heck, McCain wasn;t able to stay awake for the State of the Union. He also does not campaign on weekends.

Nova

we need that 700 billion for the FDIC to cover depositors ...

the stock and bondholders will have to go first...

Quote from Telegraph article reference above:

"One Republican said that the message from government officials is that “the economy is dropping into the john.”

It's going to happen regardless of a bailout plan, so they needn't feel pressured to pass one immediately. There's nothing they can do at this point to stop it.

"My guess is you experienced nothing more than what the ordinary J6P would if we tried explaining what we know.
requiem | 09.27.08 - 9:45 pm | # "

I considered that. Really, at that time I WANTED to believe these guys were thical.

However, if as you say, that drop was preceded by 2 down days was there a panic in his office that morning? Why didn't they deal with their personal finances on their own time the night before? The nervousness I saw in that office existed nowhere else on Capitol Hill until lunchtime when the market was open and falling.

Can't convince me they weren't trading on inside info. I can't prove it, but the circumstantial evidence combined with all the other shadiness I witnessed by our 'leaders' will never convince me otherwise.

Yeah, I'm a cynic.

This crap has got to stop. The DEMS are defending the rich and the GOP is protecting Main St.? Private equity can pull this load let the free market work!

This whole bailout plan is a stick-up to begin with. Now it's been hijacked by a Democratic Congress that thinks if they threaten a tax, the bankers will sell them just the money-making assets.

Nonsense.

As Nobel-prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said in The Nation very recently, it's going to be extremely difficult to price the banks' assets up for sale. It's unfathomably compliacted. Who are they going to use to set the prices? The same Masters of the Universe who mispriced the risk in the first place?

The bailout is a stickup! This tax is just further nonsense. If a mugger holds you up, but lets you come back in five years for a partial rebate in case you need the money, and it's the mugger who decides how much you'll get back, if anything, then you still got mugged.

Gingrich was right. Paulson should resign immediately. No Bailout! Let this sucker go down.

It's going to happen regardless of a bailout plan, so they needn't feel pressured to pass one immediately. There's nothing they can do at this point to stop it.
mp
~

the wrong bailout plan will make it worse ...

mmckinly

I think the risks of a very big crash are real if some stopgap is not clearly on its way. It's not like there's a specific time or date that the thing blows. More that if people think a stopgap is coming, confidence will barely hold together. If it drags out and confidence recedes more . . . then dominoes pick speed fast.

on the real economy side we've lost Nevada recently

Page not found

next is CA and FL

OMG! I didn't know Pelosi was available for throwing out of office in 5 short weeks!!!!

Californians, you know what to do from here. MAKE SURE she's OUT! Do whatever it takes, including voting for the biggest dumba$$ opponent! Just hold your nose and vote for whoever. Uggghhhhh........shuudddderrrr

The public debt is $5.7 trillion, the rest is govt IOUs to the Social Security trust fund.

Good laugh.

And every defined benefit pension plan, public and private, is totally solvent because it has assets and no liabilities.

Congress should just tell Bush to declare a bank holiday ... in public , in front of all the networks then pass an FDIC infusion.

MP

all due respect . . .

yes, the economy is going down the tubes. nothing will stop that. but how it goes down the tubes matters. I'd rather have Japan post 1990 than U.S. post 1929.

Does anyone remember a multi-day series from the WSJ about 2 years ago called "Awash in Liquidity"? The core idea over 50,000 words was that there was a glut of cash (possibly due to a glut is savings...but more likely due to super-efficient securities that helped reduce interest rates to 1%...perhaps permanently..... ) This cash was waiting to be invested throughout the world.

I would really love to re-read the series but I can not find it...if anyone knows where it is...please let me know. sbuelter@gmail.com

Thanks...Scott

joe shmoe | 09.27.08 - 9:57 pm | #

The dominoes are falling. Fortis is a big deal. Barclays will be a contry killer.

Informmation is being modeled an acted on far faster than ever before. It has to be. It is who gets the last chair with the music playing a increasingly shorter bursts.

Ha! They're putting it out for review? By me? Will they let me click on "Yes" or "No?" Will the vote count be accurate? More things to discuss ...

mckinly

Congress might as well tell Bush to be smart as to call a bank holiday. Same effect.

"Congress should just tell Bush to declare a bank holiday "

Conjure says, "There will be a bank holiday sooner than you think possible."

"Sen. Bob Corker, a Tennessee Republican who serves on the Senate Banking Committee, said lawmakers were encountering extraordinary voter anger.

Referring to his own Senate office, Corker said, "We had, I'm going to guess, 3,500 calls this week about this particular issue. I've had 95 calls in support of it if that gives you any indication." "

we are headed to a Japanese scenario without the savings

Re:
We will not agree to a bill that bails out Wall Street at the expense of taxpayers,'' said House Republican leader John Boehner of Ohio. The lead negotiator for House Republicans, Missouri Representative Roy Blunt, said the caucus isnot moving on any kind of artificial time line.''

I dont trust Mr. Mark Foley/Lover Boehner, I find it impossible to conceive that he has Americas interests at heart! I think he is looking for opportunity to add in something or play ball with his rebublican scum suckers!

LIBOR short term rates inverted. Even though it was by a hair it is a sign more portent of things to come then a red comet.

"I'd rather have Japan post 1990 than U.S. post 1929."

Conjure says, "You don't get a choice now."

the big question in my mind is... do we crash before letting shorts back in the market Oct 2nd, or let the shorts do it on the day of?

Conjure says, "There will be a bank holiday sooner than you think possible."
mp
~

here's hoping ...

ova

agreed. the effect of things getting stymied on Thursday. (that is, on top of the underlying solvency problems, of course)

On the surface of it all, I am finding it hard to beleive this is going to pass quickly. All you need is a few filibustering senators to grind this to a halt. Surely there are a few in safe states that do not like being rushed to pass this bill.

My email to Pelosi:

I appreciate your intent to make the bailout bill available for comments but 24 hours is grossly inadequate. The costs for this will weigh well into our children's lives. Further, this may be our last chance to successfully stop the financial crisis. If this bailout fails we will not likely be able to attempts another and we may well be doomed to another Depression. If this happens, all voters will remember who rushed through the wrong legislation and "Hoover" will get replaced in American terminology.

At least 72 hours are required for a bill of this magnitude. People need time to read, reflect, and discuss with their friends, colleagues, and family. It is our due as American citizens.

Not asking for much here, but even in the direst financial crisis that's our due.

Hey Everyone-
Don't worry. John McCain's back in town and is available by phone if anyone needs him. We're going to be just fine.
Back in Town, but Not on Capitol Hill - The Caucus Blog - NYTimes.com

mmckinnil-

I got thru to Pelosis' office yesterday with the Toll Free Capitol Hill Switchboard #'s.

Left her a scathing message. Beargirls' right, Pelosi needs a little love right now, LOL.

Sorry, I'm still with Roubini, CR and Krugman. We just need a simple, transparent bank recapitalization with Treasury preferred share purchases. Of course equity holders will be diluted, but that is the price you pay.

The WSJ seems to be getting some wind of what's going on down there-- they say the "insurance with fees" idea is gaining ground:

Bailout Negotiations Enter Evening Session - WSJ.com

ju writes:
we are headed to a Japanese scenario without the savings
~

and without the trade surplus but a huge trade deficit...

"This crap has got to stop. The DEMS are defending the rich and the GOP is protecting Main St.? Private equity can pull this load let the free market work!

really pissed in CA | 09.27.08 - 9:56 pm | #

Welcome to Bizarro World. Oh, wait, you already live in California.....

(couldn't resist)

sorry joe schmoe the japanese were a nation of savers......we have no savings in the US. In addition while Japan was failing, the rest of the world was growing.

When we go down, we take everyone with us. We have no choice and Japan in the 1990's is not an option for us

Conjure is often right. Arguing with MP is one thing, with conjure another. Gulp.

Still, a stopgap is worth a shot.

joe shmoe writes:
Why@zirp

so savers and citizens do better when there are no or minimal regulations or taxes on wall st . . . oh, wait, that's how we got in this mess!
joe shmoe | 09.27.08 - 9:54 pm | #

Taxes on WS are counterproductive, regulation and criminal penalties are much more inspiring! Some bankers need to go to jail, maybe a lot of bankers need to go to jail. We don't have debtors prisons but we do send people to prison for fraud. There is a reason for that, as a person can become a debtor for reasons beyond their control (illness, etc). Fraud is always deliberate.

Japan. Not in the ballpark. Europes banking system is melting in parallel.

I've had 95 calls in support of it if that gives you any indication."

seb must have voice throwin skilz...and we all thought he was monotone.

We sleep in the web we weave

What is it we're reviewing, the Pauson Plan with the Dem plan on top and the Pub plan as a side dish?

I think I'm getting ill. Waiter, send the table to my right the check!

Bank holiday/audit may not work very well. Hard to audit and value the toxic waste. The banks themselves don't have good numbers on what the stuff is worth, so determining solvency for a complex institution might be a close call.

Better to get preferred stock, terms like Buffett vs. GS, or Treasury vs. AIG (even better terms!)

Of course equity holders will be diluted, but that is the price you pay.
Groundhogday
~

you are an optimist ... many of these banks are busted broke and the liabilities will wipe out the share and bond holders ...

OMG! I didn't know Pelosi was available for throwing out of office in 5 short weeks!!!!

Every rep. who votes for this bailout will take a hit at the polls. Many will be voted out of office.

They will be opposed even by taxpayers who are for the bailout.

Every opponent will run relentless ads from now until election day saying: "Pelosi voted for the $700 billion bailout of Wall Street."

Voter will want to wash away the stench and the stench-makers.

Whatever the bill says, the real test will be when reps have to vote and go on record for all the world to see and smell.

"MAKE SURE she's OUT! Do whatever it takes, including voting for the biggest dumba$$ opponent! Just hold your nose and vote for whoever."

Isn't that how Pelosi was elected in the first place?

You know, if this idea of letting people review the legislation on the internet takes hold and is repeated in the future, the internet will have transformed this pseudo-democracy into a real one. I know I am being a bit too optimistic, but who knows...

"We just need a simple, transparent bank recapitalization..."

Conjure says, "Won't happen soon enough."

Comrade Canadaman,

For the past few weeks I've thought of the Japan scenario as a best case scenario. The limits of optimism.

The differences you note are of course significant.

Something tells me I don't even need to look at this legislation to know that it's garbage. Can I just cast my vote now?

Left her a scathing message. Beargirls' right, Pelosi needs a little love right now, LOL.
waitinginPNW
~

Pelosi odes'nt know what the f she's doing or she'd have slowed this thing down already ... Now she's getting railroaded ...

Don't know if this has been discussed on another thread.
But just got to read a NYT article (via Yves Smith) on the AIG/GS connection.
Behind Biggest Insurer's Crisis, A Blind Eye to a Web of Risk - NY Times

GS had a 20bil wipeout if AIG went down. Lehman and AIG bailout were both being discussed with a GS dude and others.
Leh was allowed to tank. Hands off AIG then suddenly hands on and bailout

Everyone thinks the next bank in US to fail is Wachovia. What if it's Citi?

That could be reason for panic, Citi is likely in trouble.

But this plan would not be enough to fix a solvency problem at Citi let alone make it healthy. So it's the wrong medicine.

Massive govt purchase of preferred stock a'la Buffett vs. Goldman. Do that, and bump up FDIC limits to $1M per account. Appropriate that $700B to provide massive cushion for FDIC, more to be added if needed.

Is Buffett's deal with GS contingent on a bill being passed??

Anybody know for certain?

Bravo Zulu all you Politicans!

Peter Jones: 'This has the feeling of potentially a world order-changing event'
Peter Jones: 'This has the feeling of potentially a world order-changing event' - Scotland on Sunday

..But right now, we are on the beach with President Bush and Prime Minister Brown. The sky is darkening as the tsunami rears itself up. And if it hits, there is nowhere to ru

Update (10:00 p.m.): Despite the happy talk about getting closer to a deal, all the new proposals we keep hearing about suggests the opposite. Rich Lowry, the editor of National Review, thinks things are falling apart on Capitol Hill: "Just talked to a friend who is plugged-in to all this who wants a deal and has tended to think all along that there will be a deal. Now he’s not so sure. He thinks the wheels are coming off. House Republicans want their insurance as a mandatory thing rather than an option, while the House Democratic caucus is imploding and pulling the deal far to the left. It’s getting ugly."

OT

I am open-minded to the concerns some posters have voiced about holding Proshares inverse ETFs. I have a lot of them.

So, I've spent some time looking into them. I don't understand the concern.

These are plain-vanilla equity swaps, not CDS.

Proshares holds the vast majority of assets in safe, interest-bearing securities. Then, they have a "side fund" that registers the gains or losses and is marked to market daily. To the extent the swaps gain or lose, cash changes hands.

What's the big risk? I can understand that duress in a swap counterparty could cause a day or two worth of gains to disappear. But I can't understand fears that somehow there would be a run on the shares or deeper losses. It's cash.

What am I missing?

the banking collapse was foretold.

Project Mayhem is going smoothly, Sir!

Cinch

Massive govt purchase of preferred stock a'la Buffett vs. Goldman. Do that, and bump up FDIC limits to $1M per account. Appropriate that $700B to provide massive cushion for FDIC, more to be added if needed.
artichoke
~

after an extensive audit , Citi may be long gone ... why throw good tax payer money after bad ...

rich i would be happier holding the inverse ETF than the double inverse ETF.

Nova writes:
Not to going to matter. The velocity of this change an the accompanying information is speeding up geometrically.

and...
Ministry of Truth writes:
Under the Radar with the 700 billion taking center stage

Congress Approves Auto-Industry Loans, Defense Budget

Bad stuff happening awfully fast now -here and abroad rate of change is picking up & we're all mesmerized by this bailout proposal, which, really, was pretty predictable, if infuriating.

Ladies and Gentlemen, House Speaker Cindy Sheehan.

The talking heads would go nutz..

mmckinl-

I totally agree. Throw the insolvent under the bus. Who needs them?

Get back to small community banks that make loans that they themselves are responsible for .

We'll need a good portion of that 700 billion to pay off FDIC. And put some of that $$ towards something of value like....oh, I dunno....infrastructure, new energy solutions.

Something like.....real jobs that have real value? Instead of throwing it at Wall Street Crooks.

Disgusting and waaayyy too transparent as to where these pols sentiments lie.

Artichoke

probably good odds that soon enough "the next bank to fail" won't be one bank, but bigger groups of banks - bundles of banks.

when Conjure says we will have a bank holiday sooner than we think, I get the sense he means it may not be a holiday called by GWB. Rather it will be doors shutting more or less simultaneously on a massive scale.

don't want to put words in Conjure's mouth . . .

This is utter bullshit PR by Paulson -- what the fuck is the hurry and why speed up the panic and flame it, fuel it, pump it, hype it -- this smells like Lady MacBeths loin cloth:

One Republican said that the message from government officials is that “the economy is dropping into the john.” He added: “We could see falls of 3,000 or 4,000 points on the Dow [the New York market that currently trades at around 11,000]. That could happen in just a couple of days.
“What’s being put around behind the scenes is that we’re looking at 1930s stuff. We’re looking at catastrophe, huge, amazing catastrophe. Everybody is extraordinarily scared. It’s going to be really, really nasty.”
Bailout failure 'will cause US crash'
- Telegraph

This is Airforce One. We are at 500 angels, and we are feet wet. Proceeding at 245 knots for Paraguay.

Don't look back cause that "Sucker is going down" Sir.

Maybe I'm spitting in the wind here but I'm going to reiterate my call to protect the working capital market and the bank clearance systems from a financial meltdown. It's clear from the multiple out-of-the-blue failures of the past few weeks that we cannot guarantee the system will survive even with a bailout. So any action that doesn't include protection for the most essential systems is gambling with the future of the world.

Metaphorically, no matter how many compartments you put in the Titanic you d*** well have to put on enough lifeboats.

"...no matter how many compartments you put in the Titanic you d*** well have to put on enough lifeboats."

Didn't happen.

Now he’s not so sure. He thinks the wheels are coming off. House Republicans want their insurance as a mandatory thing rather than an option, while the House Democratic caucus is imploding and pulling the deal far to the left. It’s getting ugly.

That makes me hopeful. Partisan bickering is our best hope for stopping this thing.

For those here who decide to take up gardening as a fruitful hobby, consider John Jeavons' "How to Grow More Vegetables".

But be careful if you double-dig; not hard to hurt your back doing that.

Compared to what has already happened and will happen, a stock market crash is relatively unimportant. People are focused on the stock market because they remember 1929 and 1931 crashes as harbinger of GD. Therefore gov't supports stock market to put lipstick on the pig.

But fixed income markets are really significant. Where's that CP backstop, Hank, that we already appropriated??

All this blogtalk about the glorious Repub. House guys saving the country....

What part of Bush/Paulson/Bernake versus GOP House don't you understand.

This is a Republican Plan (TM).

My blood is boiling. If you want all the mutual funds, banks, insurance companies, and other financial institutions to fail, then have at it.

Now I'm hoping the Dems say F*ck You to both Paulson/Bush and the House Repubs. Come back and see us in early Feb. 09. Maybe then we'll talk.

Or pass some bill you think you can agree upon between the WH and GOP in Congress (with your minorities in both houses.) And don't ask us not to filibuster your nonsense in the Senate. 60 votes, baby.

Fucking losers.

“What’s being put around behind the scenes is that we’re looking at 1930s stuff. We’re looking at catastrophe, huge, amazing catastrophe. Everybody is extraordinarily scared. It’s going to be really, really nasty.”

Does this mean the bloggers have carte blanche?

Are they trying to stampede the herd?

Is it Mad Max time?

I'm freaking out.

Pensions! I scream it. You want to see pissed off motivated voters. Just wait. Especially in Europa.

The unit’s revenue rose to $3.26 billion in 2005 from $737 million in 1999. Operating income at the unit also grew, rising to 17.5 percent of A.I.G.’s overall operating income in 2005, compared with 4.2 percent in 1999.

Profit margins on the business were enormous. In 2002, operating income was 44 percent of revenue; in 2005, it reached 83 percent.

nuf said

artichoke

i agree. 1929 is my shorthand for start of the great depression. We're gettting there this time by a different route: housing first, bonds second, stocks third - speaking loosely.

The reason this plan is disintegrating is that it's the wrong plan, or a combination of two wrong plans.

When designing something it is much faster to throw out what you have that is on the wrong track, and go the right way. False starts are excusable, but willful ignorance is not.

Treasury buys preferred or common shares at or above current market. That's the right idea.

"Compared to what has already happened and will happen, a stock market crash is relatively unimportant."

Conjure says, "Exactly. Forget the f*(^ing equity markets. The problem now is the debt markets. Watch the damned debt markets."

There is still a problem with the plot. Where is the leadership? Why are the Pres. and Treas. Sec. fanning the flames, with comments like, "this sucker could go down." If people believed this they would have sold everything last week, right?

For those in the know: Are public employee pensions at serious risk right now or is that still in the 'maybe one day' column?

I have a lot of family that lives on these.

If they have to pass this, I at the very minimum want to see it hashed out over several weeks. There is too much rush,rush and secrecy right now, and too much intrigue with the hand washing Paulson could be seeking with GS.

Let Paulson step down. Take all of October to negotiate. Then vote on it. Many people could grudgingly go along.

I think the opposition we're seeing now is also based on long, left-over resentment from the Patriot act and the Iraq war. The American public has seen enough of what rushing into things brings us.

Sorry I meant

Treasury buys preferred or common shares at or BELOW current market. That's the right idea.

proshares (i have no position in them)

if theyre synthetically long an equity total return swap, or similar...

you understand counterparty risk...

next, question is what hair is on the swap...if it were me, id have built in language allowing breakage at fair value if my hedging became too expensive

furthermore, we dont know the tenor of those swaps, and when they end, there may not be new counterparties to establish new positions with because no shorts = no easy hedging

(the market maker exceptions dont apply here where the end user is net short)

finally

inv companies required to mark to market to the extent possible

if their counterparty is suffering ratings downgrades or even the equivalent thereof then they have to apply a haircut to their swap side value to reflect credit risk.

There was a time during the Athens City State period where when a new law was defeated,the one/s who purposed the new law were slain.

It's amazing to think that anybody in Washington or on Wall Street thinks $700 billion will make a meaningful difference.

All I can figure is there's so much panic and anxiety, they're all in survival mode. The brain disengages at that point.
Comrade Ness | 09.27.08 - 7:44 pm | #


OT from previous thread.

Spoke with younger friend who's associate with NYC firm with financial clients.

Yes, the atmosphere is one of great fear. Apparently, many firms/banks fear being bought out by chinese given the chaos.

mp

life jackets, 200 miles from shore in 40 degree water ...

"Bitch set me up"

I still there is plenty of time to add a rider into the bill which will legalize marijuana -- just for revenue purposes of course.

the unthinkable is possibly going to happen: GWB is going to get to go on TV and tell the nation, "I told you so."

i meant synthetically short

For those in the know: Are public employee pensions at serious risk right now or is that still in the 'maybe one day' column?

I have a lot of family that lives on these

Go back and look at my post on the earlier thread about what the NC State Pension fund has in it. Or look at CALPeRS who bought big into commodities.

Pension funds for public employees seem to follow the big ones in their decision making

But fixed income markets are really significant. Where's that CP backstop, Hank, that we already appropriated??
artichoke
~

time to frog walk Paulson ...

"life jackets, 200 miles from shore in 40 degree water ..."

Don't forget, it was cold that night.

Go back and look at my post on the earlier thread about what the NC State Pension fund has in it.

Go back to an earlier thread?!

In the quarter that ended Sept. 30, 2007, A.I.G. recognized a $352 million unrealized loss on the credit default swap portfolio.

Because the London unit was set up as a bank and not an insurer, and because of the way its derivatives contracts were written, it had to put up collateral to its trading partners when the value of the underlying securities they had insured declined

the funny thing is....Someone, or group is probably winning Huge in this game.... who is it?

highway departments and planning agencies do this over and over and over. They hold 'public hearings' with no intent whatsoever of responding to anything anybody says.

Well, yes. But I've also attended some public hearings where public input really does change the direction of government. I think there is an especially good chance of that here--because Pelosi and the rest of them really don't know WHAT to do. (Neither do I, and neither do you.)

Thanks, Nova.

For those interested:

The NC State pension fund...

Figures provided to The Insider by Lang show that, as of June 30, the pension fund held 3,197,515 common and preferred shares of Fannie Mae; 1,105,989 shares of Freddie Mac; 2,860,203 shares of insurer AIG; 1,701,070 shares of investment bank Lehman Brothers; and 3,123,151 shares of savings and loan Washington Mutual

Source: poster Nova

Free Tibet! Free Markets!

to the extent that the public employees funds are not subject to normal (erisa, public company reporting) actuarial provisions, youre SOL

very serious issues

lots written about it

some cases serious underfunding

i get pitches (im an exotic finance product engineer and securities / tax lawyer) from for example orange county teacher's pension plans for screwball bond issues to shore up the underfunded plans

nitwit ideas like issuing non-tax-exempt muni bonds and making a spread

pigme

Ponzi

It seems to me that Iran is the global big winner of the Bush Admn overall: economically, strategically, militarily.

Nova writes:
How is your pension doing?

The NC State pension fund...

Figures provided to The Insider by Lang show that, as of June 30, the pension fund held 3,197,515 common and preferred shares of Fannie Mae; 1,105,989 shares of Freddie Mac; 2,860,203 shares of insurer AIG; 1,701,070 shares of investment bank Lehman Brothers; and 3,123,151 shares of savings and loan Washington Mutual

Deutsches bank - A lovely bank with a great history, especially in the 1933 to 1945 period.
Nova | 09.27.08 - 8:07 pm | #


Just for you cannibis... and because I have such fond memories of Thailand

JohnMcCain writes:
"Bitch set me up"

It only hurts when you know you had it coming.

"Project Mayhem is going smoothly, Sir!
"

HEY!!! First rule!!! FIRST RULE DAMMIT!!!!

Currently Smoking Cannabis

there will be many cities, counties and possibly states that declare BK ...

pensions are then fair game ...

Wow - I wonder how they are going to spin it when they post it on the web and they get nothing but hate mail. We let you see it as a courtesy, now take it.

must eat dinner before food is only available on breadlines

Pelosi doesn't care if people read the bill, she just wants to see if the markets collapse on Monday.

Good for her! All the opponents of the bailout need to step up to the edge and look into the abyss. That will focus their small minds on reality.

On the other hand, if we step up to the abyss and it doesn't look so bad then even Pelosi will be willing to take a pass on Bush's bailout.

Either way - Brilliant!

"pensions are then fair game ..."

Conjure said, "Watch the debt markets.

Re: Are public employee pensions at serious risk right now.

See Doc Holiday a year and a half ago bitching about Department Of Labor and Pension Protection Act:

See shit like this: http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d08200.pdf

In its 1999 report, the PWG made recommendations to enhance market discipline and the risk management practices of market participants. Since LTCM, other hedge funds have experienced near collapses or failures. 8 Despite a few notable failures, hedge funds overall seem to haveheld up well, and their counterparties have not sustained material losses in the market turmoil that began in the summer of 2007..

Hedge funds typically are organized as limited partnerships or limited liability companies, and are structured and operated in a manner that enables the fund and its advisers to qualify for exemptions from certain federal securities laws and regulations that apply to other investment pools, such as mutual funds.

You don't want the truth: YouTube - A Few Good Man "You Can't Handle the Truth" 

Don't forget, it was cold that night.
mp

80' shark infested swells ...

Cannabis - go to Thailand. They grow it like corn in rows that go on as far as the eye can see.

New York City Teachers Retirement System TRS;

Fixed Return Fund
(Fixed Annuity Program)
Objective
To provide a fixed rate of return, determined by the New York State Legislature in accordance with applicable laws. The annual net
rate is currently 8.25% for active participants.
Strategy
Not applicable
Investment Manager
Not applicable
Risk
The return on the Fixed Return Fund is guaranteed by the New York State Legislature in accordance with applicable laws.

http://www.trs.nyc.ny.us/brochure/FundProfiles_web.pdf

Don't tell anyone. I just got over on Nancy Pelosi big time. I downloaded the PDF and moved the decimal point a few places. I made the bailout for 7 cents. Then I reposted it. Think anyone will notice before they pass it?

Sorry Ben...

I'm going to tell you again that public pension plans OFTEN (but not always) are SERIOUSLY UNDERFUNDED.

If someone is a plan participant they may have a right to various reports including actuarial funding assumptions.

A few of em could hire a consulting actuary for a few thousand to give them a reality check.

Not pretty.

DOW7000-

I predict late night infomercials to !!!GET RICH!!!! Buy DOW NOW!!!!

"That makes me hopeful. Partisan bickering is our best hope for stopping this thing."

Just as the Founders envisioned with that whole checks-and-balances thing.

(Yeah I know that has to do with separation of powers, but a party system inadvertantly adds another layer)

I have to admit that the bailout proposal seems to be improving as time passes - I do think the Congress is hearing the public's anger. This is almost a "Horton Hears a Who" moment.... everyone screaming in unison not to stick the tax payers with the debt bomb.

Most of these people want to keep their jobs and perks. I think when their staffers are exhasuted from fielding 98% negative phone calls, they do sweat.

please dont confuse segregated investment accounts with the master account designed to fund defined benefit plans, do more harm than good.

mp,

Cash-flow is of interest to me, i.e, where will it flow and why? How does one even probe where it is now? It (money) seems to be morphing into a new state with new properties...

Why can't Dr. Roubini be allowed to testify before Congress on TV?

He has a crapload of credibility since he's nearly predicted this entire thing down to the T.

Let him have his say, and any other respected economists as well.

Conjure said, "Watch the debt markets.
mp
~

of course , this goes without saying ...

comment on Paulson's failure to fund short term paper markets... ?

There is a commercial on LA radio for a sweet seminar teaching us how to get rich buying foreclosures. The dude sounds like the old Don Lapre or Carlton Sheets scammers.

Apparently there has never been a better time to buy real estate in the history of America.

There are probably no seats left though...dude said it was filling up fast.

I don't understand the people who think a gov't bailout will stop what is going to happen. The global derivatives market is now worth ~$676.5 trillion. The gov't is in over its head.

fred writes:
please dont confuse segregated investment accounts with the master account designed to fund defined benefit plans, do more harm than good.
fred | 09.27.08 - 10:32 pm | #

Fred knows more about this I am sure. You need to look it up, do some reading, an ask questions.

From POLITICO
"[McCain] told the group that Pelosi had a choice: She could either allow her negotiators to craft a package that Republicans would accept, or she could make it a partisan vote by attaching the plan to a must-pass stop-gap funding bill that lawmakers from both parties would be compelled to support.

If she chose the latter category, McCain told the Republican leaders that they could vote against the hugely unpopular measure and he would help them make that vote a campaign issue on the trail."
-Watch the politicians work-

"... Private equity can pull this load let the free market work!"

Indeed. I've been waiting for a good opportunity to buy and hasn't materialized yet because of pesky ban on short selling.

Here is one scenario for the way that things could/should ideally unfold:

SHORT-TERM:
Ideally, they should delay the legislation until briefly before the ban on shorting expires. This would give the market enough time to tank, and allow the smart money (i.e. private equity) to get in.

Then, allow the shorts to jump in with the prices way low. Essentially, they would be selling to the smart money.

Meanwhile, legislators would have had enought time to cool their heads and get some objective advice from some of our most illuminated minds about the plan.

Finally, vote and pass after the market close on the day after the plan is ready, and after the smart money is in, and after the shorts are in.

This would cause a huge initiall rally from the shorts running for cover (probably to the 200-day SMA), and the Treasury would only need do a bit more work to make it punch through.

MEDIUM-TERM:
As we get closer to ellection day, prices would gradually rise and penetrate through the remaining technical levels.

The key, though, would be to keep the bad news flowing so that there would be a steady supply of shorts to come into the market and to be squeezed out.

LONGER-TERM:
Eventually, the legislation would actually start to work, and the markets would recognize this by making new highs, esentially starting a new leg up in a bull market.

Ideally...

Pew Study Finds States Face $2.73 Trillion Bill for Retiree Benefits
Pew Study Finds States Face $2.73 Trillion Bill for Retiree Benefits - The Pew Charitable Trusts

States have promised at least $2.73 trillion in pension, health care and other retirement benefits for public employees over the next three decades, according to a report released today by The Pew Charitable Trusts’ Center on the States.

Pew found that states’ long-term price tag for retiree health care and other non-pension benefits is about $381 billion for state employees alone (excluding obligations for teachers and other local government workers). About 97 percentof that 30-year obligation was unfunded at the end of FY 2006.

I tried to discus pension safety with my Father when the CDOs were being pitched to them. Tanta did a scary post on it last Spring.

He just laughed. Said that LA County pensions are so big and so safe that it could never be an issue. Impossible.

Like a Black Swan, I'm sure.

This is very bad news for the Cannabis clan.

"...comment on Paulson's failure to fund short term paper markets... ?"

Conjure says, "I've always thought Paulson a fool, now I know."

s0mebody writes:
I don't understand the people who think a gov't bailout will stop what is going to happen. The global derivatives market is now worth ~$676.5 trillion. The gov't is in over its head.

It is, and has always been, a CONfindence game.

CONfidence is the Gold Standard behind the dollar. Lose confidence and the house of cards collapses.

Comrade Jeremy writes:
Why can't Dr. Roubini be allowed to testify before Congress on TV?
~~~

Because Roubini is a foreign born double agent with a secret organization bent on destroying America ...

sincerely,

Banksters Clearing House LLC

LIES. LIES. LIES.

I've been calling Pelosi's office all week, the people who answer the phones were rude and abusive about this subject, and immediately put me through to some voicemail comment line while I was mid-sentence. They did this 6 times in a row. I demanded to speak to a live human being to no avail.

mp-

That's one of the things that MOST pi$$e$ me off about this: It won't help. It's too late way, way too late. Like YEARS too late.

So save the $$ and do something useful with it that WILL help. Like FDIC and jobs.

Apparently, the problem we've got isthat these politicians do not want to help us, their real constituents are WS and they will throw every last one of us under the bus in one futile attempt after another to save WS.

Left her a scathing message. Beargirls' right, Pelosi needs a little love right now, LOL.

Or girlbear......

Currently Smoking Cannabis I know some people in California that just bought a foreclosure in Buffalo, NY for $20k and now are looking for another $20k to rehab it. I am sure it was from on of those seminars. Just think about the hell it would be trying to manage the repairs and then the tenants from clear across the country.

"Because Roubini is a foreign born double agent with a secret organization bent on destroying America ..."

Roubini is of Iranian extraction, which makes him an evil-doer.

she has the votes if she want to pass it, coward move, she's not doing it because she wants a more open, transparent process, it's a cheap political stunt. gimme a break, you are majority madame speaker, act like it. loser.

Quarterly Pressures Add to Bond Turmoil
Quarterly Pressures Add to Bond Turmoil - WSJ.com

"There isn't enough capital in the system. Banks are hoarding cash at quarter-end," said Tom Tucci, head of U.S. government-bond trading in New York at RBC Capital Markets, the investment-banking arm of Canada's biggest lender. "In a market that normally took any type of agency bonds or mortgages, people want only triple-A government bonds on their books, which is causing the squeeze."

The three-month London interbank offered rate/OIS spread, a gauge of stress in the money markets, widened to about 2.0 percentage points Friday from about 1.98 points late Thursday. The spread Thursday breached 2.0 percentage points for the first time.

"Gordon Brown warns short-selling ban may become permanent"

That is the quickest way to hand dubai or any other financial center with proper markets london's crown.

The phone calls won't work.

One of you hardcores needs to self-immolate on the steps of the Capitol.

Who's got my Patriotism?

Above all - I WANT MY OUNCE OF FLESH! It's been painful fighting this tape since 2006, even though I knew I was right that the whole thing was a charade ready to crash.

Pisses me off now Cox wants to relax mark-2-market (great when all of a sudden investors get a surprise wiping out $200B in market cap overnight in BK - GOOD IDEA) and he attacks shorts. I lost a ton of money when lies on marks were never investigated. I want 10X my money back.

Enjoying it.

im not a pension lawyer, im a tax lawyer and quant/actuary

i know a great deal about this but not enough to pontificate

if youre asking me

(A) are the segregated investment accounts safe (like the 401k choices) then they answer is, "as safe as the securities underlying them" except in the case of guaranteed investment contract stuff where there is real counterparty risk

(B) are the accounts that are set up to FUND general retirement costs adequately capitalized (we call that adequately FUNDED) the answer is almost never, no

in particular: unrealistic earnings assumptions are made, which force huge amounts invested into weird crap that is promoted to them as "free alpha" where, other than purported manager skill, whats going on is synthetic leverage

your mileage may vary

MoT: 20k? I must admit I might bite on something like that.

mp writes:
"...comment on Paulson's failure to fund short term paper markets... ?"

Conjure says, "I've always thought Paulson a fool, now I know."
mp

~~~~~~~~~~~~

foolish or deliberate ? I'm thinking the latter ...

I'll gladly take my share of the 700 billion in cash.
Small bills please.

About half of the public pensions are seriously underfunded. This will limit what they can do in many ways, but they were limited to begin with. If they thought they were going to issue pension obligation bonds and earn arbitrage in the near future, well that is going to be a little tough on them.

Many have real estate positions as a way of diversifying the portfolio, and I am sure some own investment property outright. They are obviously going to be affected by it. For the ones that are seriously underfunded, making any kind of appropriations to catch up would be very difficult anyway, whether the financial markets got to this point or not.

Re: Cox wants to relax mark-2-market

Way too many conflicts of interest and on-going collusion. This all helps Warren, but... fraud is fraud and that doesnt re-build confidence in a broken system!

If we have to spend this 700 billion (as we are constantly told), why aren't we using it to buy and set loose some forensic accountant hounds and start prosecutions for what is obviously some serious and widespread fraud?

Seems like that would go quite a ways toward restoring some confidence in The Full Faith and Credit mantra.

(one can dream, yes?)

I don't know about Cali, CSC, but they announced today that WA State pensions had lost 47 million with the WAMU failure, after a 17 million dollar loss last week with AIG.
If it's CALPERS I would go to their website and see the latest news releases.

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