Bond Guy, M3 is no longer officially reported, but at least two public sources I know of are compiling their own M3 data using its still publicly available constituents. John William's Shadow Stats and Now and the Future
OT (but what really is nowadays).
Energy stocks (coal, nat gas, oil companies) are dirt cheap, some with PE's in the 7-8 range. Granted, some energy use will slow. But the unemployed still need heat. And if we get hyperinflation, won't they rise as well?
Looks like their subsidiary Financial Security Assurance Inc. has not worked out for them.
From Bloomberg,
"Dexia has come under pressure after bailing out Financial Security Assurance Inc., its New York-based bond insurance unit. Dexia agreed in August to provide $300 million to FSA after provisions tied to the subprime crisis led to a loss at the unit. That followed a $5 billion credit line to FSA Dexia agreed to in June, and $500 million it put into the unit in February. "
And yes - the comments have become overwhelming. For giggles I looked back to 2007 when I first began lurking here and saw many threads with fewer than 100 comments. Now with threads over 1000 comments its all but impossible to sift the wheat from the chaff.
It is perfectly normal for energy stocks to have PEs in the 7-8 range. That does not mean that they are cheap.
It's hard for most energy companies (think big oil) to do well in hyperinflation. They can't raise prices fast enough with bringing down the political class with cries of price gouging.
I prefer energy service companies. Small distinction perhaps, but I think important.
Business hits back after Congress bailout vote
| Reuters
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the nation's largest business lobbying group and a vocal bailout proponent, responded quickly after the vote with a letter to all members of Congress.
"Make no mistake: when the aftermath of congressional inaction becomes clear, Americans will not tolerate those who stood by and let the calamity happen," said the letter, urging reconsideration and passage of "financial rescue legislation."
"The chamber will score votes on, or in relation to, this issue in our annual 'How They Voted' scorecard," it said.
A Forecast:
Some candidate in the 2012 Prez Election cycle will be addressing folks in the heartland and be overheard to say:
"You have to understand, these former big city finance folks now serving you at Taco Bell and McD's are bitter. They fervently cling to their copies of Atlas Shrugged and Free to Choose, certain things will get better soon if they just believe strong enough."
The whole world is getting into the act. Just been 'listening' to Bloomberg TV -Asia and cooking dinner... havin' fun over there 'tonight-tomorrow' too.
Guess they weren't too happy 'bout our almost bailout.
OT: I have seen at least 4 different people over the past month or so on trains and subways reading Atlas Shrugged. I confess myself to reading it again (first time was 20 years ago) after hearing repeated mention of how Greenspan was a Randite on these very blogs. Another good re-read was Lucifers Hammer also suggested on this blog.
Energy stocks (coal, nat gas, oil companies) are dirt cheap, some with PE's in the 7-8 range. Granted, some energy use will slow. But the unemployed still need heat. And if we get hyperinflation, won't they rise as well?
True, but there is a drag on stocks of commodities producers when the stock market as a whole is tanking. Energy stocks correlate at something like .85 with the S&P.
It's best to go with the actually energy commodities until stocks bottom. I really like DBE because it's diversified among energy commodities and also because it has a cool method for maximizing roll yield on commodities contracts.
Deutche Bank and PowerShares really are innovators in the commodities ETF space.
House members rejected bailout because voters back home hated it
By David Lightman, McClatchy Newspapers
Mon Sep 29, 5:55 PM ET
WASHINGTON Almost until the early afternoon vote Monday on the financial rescue plan, voters bombarded congressional offices, protesting almost in unison: Don't bail out renegade financial executives and companies.
On Monday, House members, who face the voters in five weeks, listened to their constituents rather than their party leaders and rejected the $700 billion financial rescue package. For many, it was just too much to swallow too quickly, and too hard to explain...
Just saw Krugman on Larry King. He says that not passing the bailout was a mistake. Thoughts?
The US government does not have the resources to bail out the entire global financial system. It would only pile on national debt, raising interest rates in the process by crowding out private investments, and make matters worse.
Anonymous writes:
Just saw Krugman on Larry King. He says that not passing the bailout was a mistake. Thoughts?
Anonymous | 09.29.08 - 9:45 pm | #
Not as it was structured. We'll see a bailout - no doubt about it - just a matter of 'what' & 'when'. We can do better. We can also do worse. We'll see.
Just saw Krugman on Larry King. He says that not passing the bailout was a mistake. Thoughts?
Nobody is right. This is like throwing a chair into a hole in the fuselage of an airplane that sticks for a moment and then gets sucked into the void nevertheless. Best to conserve ammo, and more importantly, MAKE SHOTS COUNT.
My take on the bailout is that many do not want intervention because we want less goobermint in our lives. Less taxes, less debt, less everything.
Heck, I was in Yellowstone Park in August and met some od the most down to earth people who probably wouldn't miss Wall Street or DC if they went BK!
These boneheads try to stir up all the sheeple into believing we need them. Sorry, you need us more than we need you. DC and WS need to get oever themselves. I am so sick of these guys/gals.
Tell Maria Bartiromo and Dylan Ragdoll to get real jobs and stop talking about how the Filet Mignon will not be served this evening. Get out there and work at Dairy Queen for a day! Pigs! I hate them all!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The US government does not have the resources to bail out the entire global financial system. It would only pile on national debt, raising interest rates in the process by crowding out private investments, and make matters worse.
Nobody | Homepage | 09.29.08 - 9:48 pm |
No but it does have the ability to borrow $1tn per year for its cumulative defence budget which allows it to occupy the Aswan dam and collect fees for passage. Or was the the British? No the British never spent 33% of federal receipts on their military...
Who cares what Larry King thinks. Krugman and Ben Stein agreed that not passing the bailout was a mistake. Krugman was shocked that he was agreeing with anything that Ben Stein said.
It seemed to me that Krugman was just holding out for the plan to include an equity interest in the companies that use the facility. To me that did not address the economic questions of whether the bailout would work. As much as I respect him, I lumped him into the do something for the sake of doing something category.
This comment is sort of last thread, but there doesn't seem to be much discussion of homestead exemptions regarding the decision/reality of personal BK's and their role in peoples ability to keep their homes. It varies state to state, but I just did a search on the term, and (gee, how did Google know?) I got lots of info on TX.
In Texas, if you live outside city limits, your homestead exemption includes: 100 acres (200 acres for families); 2 firearms; home furnishings, including family heirlooms; 2 horses, mules or donkeys and a saddle, blanket and bridle for each, and so on. (Not making this up!)
The point is, subject to the labyrinth of state and federal law, is it not possible that many people might be able to stay in their homes, at least in certain, more populist, states?
As for Erin. Crybaby. Man up! You are gushing when the Dow is up 3 points, but it goes down 777 points and you look like a weekend bender at Daytona Beach during spring break.
Crickey, when the SHTF, she is gonna have a meltdown of more than just her mascara! Just another Harpie!
Sebastian Orsi, an analyst at Merrion stockbrokers, pointed out that loan to deposit ratios in Ireland are about 150 per cent, compared with 130 per cent in the EU.
Let's hope the bank holding companies have some stellar assets on their books to maintain their reserve requirements.
Todays sell of was more about hedge redemptions not the passage of some legislation. Once the fate was decided, it was better to capture gains (rather avoid further losses). Hanky had good timing.
Bear, I can't admire them for what they are because they are nothing more than prostitutes for WS.
In fact, the only person that channel worth anyting is Santelli and you can tell because they barely give that guy 3 seconds of air time when he is cut to.
Heck, if we have to go to MSNBC for babes we really are looking at a severe depression!
Unlimited; property cannot exceed 1 acre in town, village, city or 100 acres (200 acres for families) elsewhere; sale proceeds exempt for 6 months after sale (need not occupy if not acquire another home, Property 41.003)
"If Maria Bartiromo was a cashier at the local market, people would never even notice her."
Something you should know if you have never met one of these in person: What looks like a normal sized mouth on TV is quite large in person. When a person appears to have a large mouth on TV, it's quite amazing to see in person.
Maria would be noticed in a local market, but not in the way you were thinking.
Did any of the House members read the bill, or listen to that SIFMA (Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association) conference call with Henry Paulson last night?
Just wondering?
And, in passing, did SIFMA fix its web sight to not give me computer viruses?
I think Krugman has bought into the idea that the banking system as a whole is quite possibly insolvent, and "we" need to do something about that.
Krugman and other economists seem to think that direct equity stakes -- nationalization, essentially -- is the right way to recapitalize the banks.
He does not seem to spill much ink about what happens after that.
I think that he, along with virtually everyone else, is reluctant to admit that nobody has the slightest clue about what to do other than to throw money at the problem.
We're really in terra incognita here and there is no government backstop because the government neither has the resources nor any workable ideas nor the political will to do anything about it.
So what we need to do is to let the market correction happen, bolster our social insurance programs to alleviate the unavoidable pain to come, spend more money to clean up after failed businesses and banks, and let the market correct itself.
Roubini and Krugman are giants--both should get respect when their ideas are different than ours. If either were to become Treasury Secretary, I'd favor any plan they submitted.
BTW I think Maria B. is quite attractive. But I don't like her. If she had something of mine in her mouth, I wouldn't say no...or pull out...or whatever.
I would like to hear them explain how much they think it would take to recapitalize the banks, because with the inside information the Treasury would have, this should be something they could model. I'm not saying they could arrive at a great valuation for the assets, but they could arrive at something less arbitrary.
It gets kind of exhausting listening to people talk about the federal government like it has unlimited resources, such that absorbing these risks does not have major consequences that need to be considered. And to me that is what the nationalization argument amounts to.
I would have been more sympathetic with Paulson if he had attempted to inventory the distressed assets in the market before asking for money. I likely would have still thought the bailout was a bum deal (for the reason above), but I would have at least been sympathetic to him. Everything about the bill struck me as arbitrary though. Like, "let's just pick a number big enough that people think it sounds like it can accomplish a lot." This works because most people have no clue exactly how out of hand the derivatives market got. But they can say "establish guidelines" all they want - they have no idea how massive the universe of investment vehicles they are describing can be and what power they are giving him.
Someone called Schiller and Krugman. They said, "We need you guys to play ball on this and support the bailout. You'll get your rewards if you do." These guys know the real score, but they don't have the guts to refuse the order. That's why Krugman is on Larry King's retarded show.
The moment the Republicans killed the bill I knew that Krugman supported it. The guy is just a left-wing version of Ben Stein. He's gaming for Treasury Secretary next Spring.
OT- No one in my neighborhood seems to know or care about this. It's creepy. I'm surrounded by a hundred McMansions and everyone appears to be going about their normal business.
No gas in Atlanta or Charlotte? Eh, who cares?
Banks stopped lending? So what?
Something about that indifference makes me very nervous. Not sure what it is.
I can imagine Roubini's speech on being appointed treasury secretary would match those of Ray Patterson from The Simpsons after Homer's reign as sanitation commissioner ruins Springfield:
Oh gosh. You know, I'm not much on speeches, but, it's so gratifying to leave you wallowing in the mess you've made. You're screwed, thank you, bye.
sm landlord and rich. Thanks for the feedback on energy stocks. If we ever do have lots of "plug in" cars, what ends up charging them? If a fridge takes $15 a month to power, what about a car?
Why@ ZIRP writes:
I would have been more sympathetic with Paulson if he had attempted to inventory the distressed assets in the market before asking for money.
I think he did.
Why do you say that? It really does not seem that way to me.
Yes, but not to the point of orthodoxy. I asked what Larry King's views were, somewhat sarcastically, only because we all know Krugman's ideas, almost as soon as they're posted. Krugman supported the bailout, but Roubini and Stiglitz did not. They favor a Swedish-type plan, which I believe is far superior (but hopefully not necessary). Roubini characterized the Paulson bailout as similar to those conducted in Japan, and Mexico. In addition, I had a problem with Krugman's comment this afternoon that "we've become a banana republic with nukes."
Homes and other assets (but mostly homes) are sold to J6P at anywhere from 5-12X his/her income.
Mortgages sold off in packages to investors.
Only "smart" people left to buy and we are waiting and waiting and waiting for prices to drop. Prices begin slow descent.
J6P realizes that mortgage is not worth working himself to death with OT and eating Ramen from next 360 months, so he walks.
Number of homes begins to pile up on banks books all the while prices continue slow descent into abyss.
Banks screaming for help.
Paulson decides Fed goobers should buy these declining "assets" at prices that are more than they are really worth with the taxpayers ultimately on the hook and with no recourse.
Why am I upset again with this great plan and why does this make sense only to the banksters and Paulson?
We don't get it... Error - washingtonpost.com? hpid=topnews
this is real, folks
~~~~
same paper that reported that over a hundred economists were agin' it
If a fridge takes $15 a month to power, what about a car?
I am told that a natural gas-powered car could be pretty efficient, given a little Silicon Valley technology.
And you know how many people in Texas, Arkansas, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia have big pools of shale natural gas sitting right under their houses.
So, development of natural gas cars would serve two purposes. It would revitalize Detroit and also give people in these states the opportunity to start up filling stations.
I just think there are serious legal / legal exposure issues to registration and "going legit".
Byzantine_Ruins
Mr. Ruins,
Do you mean that you favor or do not favor moderated and registered comments?
It seems there are a few people who have an issue with others who do not meet their standards or post according to their personal criteria. If they ruled, the comments section would be shallow and boring. All personality would be scrubbed.
The dissatisfied are most likely accountants. They wouldn't know levity unless it could be expressed in numbers.
You're talking about Rebecca Jarvis. Reinforcing the point of how bad CNBC actually is, she was a contestant on the Apprentice.
Well golly gee, Gomer. Who will CNBC use when the goobermint finally goes BK and we are in a depression, Donald Trump and his 3 easy ways to BK a a casino and declare BK not once, but twice, even though daddy spotted him his start?
This is why duhmerica is where it is. We continue to watch tv and too many people actually listen and believe what is said/done on it!
As a sports fan, I have seen this w/ESPN. When ESPN first came on it was a little rough, but had something.
Now it is all about the hosts. Berman needs oxygen after one sentence and all the ex-athletes/coaches amke me puke. If you know so much, why are on some lame-brain show?
Do you mean that you favor or do not favor moderated and registered comments?
I think registration is a bad idea and will rob the venue of much of its character and all of its charm.
Way too many people post here who shouldn't. It's better when it's the 4chan of the financial world. I know it's the crew of the Crimson Permanent Assurance, that's why I come here.
I don't know what you gain by requiring registration, etc., except that it might prevent someone from making comments under another person's name. If people cannot contribute anonymously, however, that will probably be the end of contribution by market types that have to deal with compliance agents and similar concerns.
Did anyone else read/hear that Paulson bailed out AIG because Goldman Sachs had a 30 billion dollar trade that would have gone under? That's outrageous if true.
You're talking about Rebecca Jarvis. Reinforcing the point of how bad CNBC actually is, she was a contestant on the Apprentice.
rowen | 09.29.08 - 10:17 pm | #
well thank you very much, kind sir!
i saw her on CNBC, thought nah that couldnt be her, looked it on their website and no mention of apprentice.
Just a deduction and I could be wrong, but Secretary Paulson came to the Congress asking for money only after the Lehman BK and AIG's effective BK. He could have learned a lot about what they were holding and made some pretty reasonable estimates of what else was out there. Also they may have written swaps on the actual assets of other entities. More evidence.
The banks and insurance companies have been a black box to Treasury and the Fed since the crisis began. Stands to reason that when part of that system became visible and it was far uglier than had been assumed, panic ensued. The Fed and Treasury looked into the abyss and didn't like it one bit.
Just my humble opinion. Could be way off base. Shoot me down if you can, I'd welcome evidence to the contrary.
The more I learn, the more I realize how important, no, critical it is that any bailout plan does not pass in the US.
We simply can not allow the government to be able to artificially define prices. There were no cries for 'help' to set the prices when the spiral was going in the upward direction. And now it is time for the adults to take over who understand WHY we can not set these prices.
Krugman and other economists seem to think that direct equity stakes -- nationalization, essentially -- is the right way to recapitalize the banks.
He does not seem to spill much ink about what happens after that.
Nemo | Homepage | 09.29.08 - 9:57 pm | #
I know what they do after that - the 'sovereign' patches it up with its own freshly printed fiat, owns a big chunk of the equity and then sells it back into an inflated market and makes a killing.
I see no one else is posting on Dexia, so I'll get this in.
Usual catch-phrase: when US sneezes, Asia catches a cold. Well, with ASX, NZX, Nikkei already off by around 5%, we could conclude it's more like pneumonia. This is another angle for those writing to reps and sens, that the current situation is screwing frinds and allies. It's not the prime reason to do a deal, sure, but we need to think of our friends.
Let's not turn a sneeze into ebola for the Asia-Pacific.
I agree that Paulson seems to be cracking under the pressure. And he hopes a dump truck of bailout money for the bankers to feed on will make this all go away.
Inquiring minds are considering the Wall Street Journal article How Voter Fury Stopped Bailout
Left-Right Combo By Opponents Put Plan on the Ropes.
The defeat in Congress of a proposed $700 billion economic-rescue package followed an intense outpouring of voter anger, fanned by politicians, interest groups and media on the left and right, that overwhelmed calls from the president and top lawmakers to pass the deal.
Voters opposed to the deal deluged Capitol Hill with letters, emails, phone calls and faxes over the past week. Some 23,000 signatures were collected over two days by Sen. Bernie Sanders, a Vermont Independent, calling for a five-year, 10% surtax on the wealthiest Americans to help fund the bailout. Some prominent conservatives and bloggers criticized the deal as an unwarranted intervention in the free market.
On his Web site in recent days, Rep. Issa has posted letters and emails from some of the more than 2,000 constituents he said had contacted him about the proposal, including one from "Greg" in Temecula, Calif., who called the proposal "poorly thought out and rushed to the floor."
"I am 45 and a husband and father of 4. I am outraged and appalled at the arrogance of my President and the lack of regard for what is right," the message said...
I do not doubt he has a lot of information regarding what is "out there" in terms of the derivatives markets. You are certainly right about that. But that did not translate into the $700 billion, that is all I am saying. He did not set that as an upper limit or anything. He was not trying to get model-specific about what was needed, because he thinks it is all a confidence game.
Whatever you do, PLEASE don't switch the blog comments to Scoop... a horrible blogging system that marginalizes interesting discussion and creates a mob mentality. See "Kos, Daily."
"It's not the prime reason to do a deal, sure, but we need to think of our friends."
You need to balance the harm of inaction versus the harm of action.
The problem is that the lawless 700 billion pound turd has smashed one pan of the scale so hard down that it is impacted. The bill is irredeemably bad.
So the stock market falls to 8000. It was at about 10000 when Bush took over. Does anyone think that more than 80% of the original value is left?
Ugh, I'm pretty much addicted to the comments here at CR, but the relentless misogynistic objectification of the female talking heads is getting SERIOUSLY OLD, not to mention boring. Please, please self check?
Nolaguy writes:
Anyone watching Newt bash Paulson. Just said he should resign tomorrow or be fired.
Is it just me, or is he making sense to others?
Nolaguy | 09.29.08 - 10:38 pm | #
No. Paulson will be checking out in a few weeks anyway - after say Oct 15 he'll go into the victory formation & run out the clock. Its the next gang that have the problems then - as it should be.
The non-end-of-the-world reminds me of a line from the old Danny DeVito movie Ruthless People. Where he reminisced about his (hated) wife who he wanted to kill, almost dying, "...and then... she STABILIZED!"
In Fahrenheit 451 there was a substory involving Linda, the firemans wife.
Truffaut with the artists precognition nails the role the TV would have in our lives.
Here we have a thread on a serious financial blog on a most dangerous day.
Yet for many the only thing that they can discusss is TV stars and TV characters. Like with Linda that has become the real world and the outside event disappears. Only the remarks of their favorite TV personality remain, or if they are intellectuals, they compare what two of these personalities have said.
This is America today. The pastor of the chapel on the hill has been replaced with a 52" LCD screen with a televangelist leading us to Jesus
rowen: Every freaking institution or corporation that must roll over their CP every quarter, which incidentally begins on Wed.
Yeah, it's true. The paper market's gonna implode, and no congressional action til Thursday.
Guess that would have been a better target for guarantees / waivers. Spending time crafting better policy would have done better than screaming DRILL HERE DRILL NOW and trying to steamroller it til they stroked out. Something to consider during the next crisis.
japan may have an economy that is tipping into no growth but their banks are sumo wrestler sized and they are not really good at the kind of panic that needs pure American self interest to drive it.
Australia well it is spring and there are only about three banks in the entire country.
I guess hk is being supported as is china.
Euro reaction might be more interesting.. Do they catch up or take the lead downwards?
Bond Girl writes:
I do not doubt he has a lot of information regarding what is "out there" in terms of the derivatives markets. You are certainly right about that. But that did not translate into the $700 billion, that is all I am saying. He did not set that as an upper limit or anything. He was not trying to get model-specific about what was needed, because he thinks it is all a confidence game.
Bond Girl | 09.29.08 - 10:36 pm | #
I think they were planning to buy out the defaulted ABS all along, they just didn't know how much they would have to buy. Whether the 700B is just a down payment, I can't say. I actually hope that is all they need. Maybe as I have suggested before, that is what they need to bail out just ONE entity that is "too big to fail".
i'm just saying that this is eradict bear stock markets. Add in the gov't and also no one knows how much this paper is worse, and it gets more chaotic.
As my username implies, personally i've been mostly cash--with a few fun rides on SKF--due to reading all y'all on this blog for the past year and change.
I just don't want something dumb to be passed because of panic. It's disaster capitalism.
The window for selling common stock could be largely dependent on the SEC's decision on whether to extend the short-selling ban (set to expire Thursday) and legislative efforts to bail out the financial industry, observers say.
Statement by Howard Coble, 6th Distric N.C - my old howtown. The man is probably in his 80s now but he's still sharp as a tack:
"This was a bad deal from the beginning, and while improvements were made over a weekend of negotiating, the people of the Sixth District let me know in no uncertain terms that they were in no mood to bail out those who made some horrible financial decisions. Now that this bill has been defeated, we have to go back to the drawing board to see where
Congress can assist in the recovery of the financial, credit and housing markets. I was never completely convinced that this rush-to-judgment was the right approach.
The bill had too many unanswered questions to convince me to support the measure. There is no accurate estimate of the total amount of troubled assets and as a result, there is no guarantee that $700 billion will even secure our financial markets. Furthermore, the government purchasing toxic assets with taxpayer dollars makes no sense.
Taxpayers should not be forced to bail out Wall Street executives and other individuals who have enjoyed lucrative benefits by exploiting our financial services industry. Particularly those who have contributed to the sub-prime mortgage
crisis. To make matters worse, this bill did not prevent golden parachutes; it only prevented future golden parachutes. These executives must be held accountable and regardless of when their crisis occurred or the amount of government assistance, they should be prohibited from receiving any financial rewards. The appropriate role of the government is to protect the taxpayers and their investments, not subsidizing a market or sector of our economy.
Unfortunately, this bill did nothing to prohibit the activities that have led so many financial institutions into this current fiscal crisis.
the relentless misogynistic objectification of the female talking heads is getting SERIOUSLY OLD, not to mention boring. Please, please self check?
Just my opinion as someone who doesn't generally do it:
Being female does not entitle you to any special deal in life. Maria Bartromo sells stocks to rubes with her tits. It's like a champagne girl without the good parts.
Maybe I just ignore offensive sexual innuendo. Overall, she's a shill for evil men and deserves no more respect than any other mouthpiece of Babylon.
...LEADERLESS...
Stocks Lost $1.2 Trillion... $500 Billion More Than Bailout... Global Markets Brace As Asia Gets Hammered...
GOP Senator Gregg Sunday: "If We Don't Pass It, We Shouldn't Be A Congress"... GOP Blames Pelosi For "A Partisan Speech"... Dem Congressman Frank: "Well If That Stopped People From Voting, Then Shame On Them"... White House: Bush "Very Disappointed"... Andrew Sullivan: "The GOP Killed It"... New Republic: 'Very, Very Bad News For McCain'... Marc Ambinder: "If McCain Wanted Credit For Passage, Should He Share Some Of The Blame For Its Defeat?"...Time's Klein: McCain's 'Puerile Histrionics' Only Hurt Bailout...
@And you know how many people in Texas, Arkansas, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia have big pools of shale natural gas sitting right under their houses.
Yeah, in NY too, Rich. Did you see the article in nymag about the natural gas sitting under the Catskills? Say goodbye to the pristine landscape and hello to poison run-off and scalped mountain tops.
Apropos of nothing in particular, I extend this gem from James Kunstler of Clusterf**kNation:
It's odd to watch the talking heads on CNBC this morning, parsing endlessly over the latest minutiae of the latest deal for CitiGroup to land on Wachovia like a giant amoeba and begin the gruesome process of digesting its innards. The TV heads are just like the medieval monks trying to explicate the labanotation of x-number of angels dancing on the head of the pin. Religion really is the only metaphor left to discuss the epochal disaster underway right now, because God alone knows where this will take us.
What is with all of the bank holiday stuff? You work for one and haven't been able to get a day off?
Yeah, I want to see them nationalized too, but...
homedad43 | Homepage | 09.29.08 - 10:50 pm | #
As for bank holiday... How many years did it take to get answers on the books at Freddy & Fannie? And then try to do that on a worldwide basis w/ banks FAR larger with even worse paper???
If we get a 'bank holiday' its gonna last a decade... I don't think there will be enough squirrels.
For what it's worth, I am only down on one investment I've made all year.
That investment is double short the Dow Jones Real Estate Index.
Who would believe that we could be this deep into the worst U.S. real estate crisis in generations, yet investors could be down double short U.S. real estate?
Okay, I know there's some structural problems with the volatility and neg. dividend in SRS. And I'll never buy SRS again for holding periods more than a few months.
But I don't think the structural problems negate the basic idea. I think speculators have been driving SRS down more than should be.
So, I've been loading up on SRS. I'm looking for 30% upside from here, to about 100-110. And I'm profitable again and out.
Blood in the streets to me means at what level the SPX at a reasonable PE is the SPX priced to give me a good 5 yr CAGR.
here is how i frame it, you can use your PE estimate.
Peak SPX EPS trailing 4 Q's was $85 in 2Q07. Financials were $39 of that EPS. i'll assume a bad case scenario and estimate that 65% of financials' EPS goes away for good. so adjusted peak SPX EPS was $60.
From 100+ yrs of data we know SPX EPS grows 6% long term. so 5 yrs from now SPX EPS could likely be $80. Give it a 14x PE. That mean you have SPX at 1,120. Almost a 0% return from today's close of @ 1,100. sucky.
But....if the SPX got to 850, that's about an 8% 5 yr CAGR for total return (assume 2% div yld).
ouch,....given that i don't want to pay more than 14x LTM EPS, I need to see SPX 850 (down another 23%) just to set up an expected 8% 5 yr CAGR.
I'm selling half of my remaining DXD and SDS I bought two weeks/one month ago; but I'm having difficulty parting with TWM I bought @ $61.00 (currently trading @ $79.00).
I think TWM is a double in under a year. But I'm not sure I could hold onto it through Intermediate Term bottoms in the SPX. I hate when markets move this fast in either direction.
"relentless misogynistic objectification of the female talking heads"
Do you know who Ivy Zelman is? Far from a misogunistic objectification...do a google search for "Ivy Zelman" and "Mortgage Liquidity du jour: Underestimated No More"...page 47 of this Opus is one of the reasons we knew this tragic house of cards was going to come down back in early 2007. Until it was released, we had only anecdotal avidence of what was "coming down the pike".
Say goodbye to the pristine landscape and hello to poison run-off and scalped mountain tops.
Suggest development of time travel technology, putting policies in place 80 years ago to urge responsible exploitation of liquid petroleum supplies whose ecological devastation will be pleasantly removed from your sight.
If you have a vehicle, but are not willing to bear the burden of its energy source, you drive on the back of another.
edd browne writes:
I just listened to the entire Pelosi tirade again.
It's almost as if it was designed to batter
Republicans into reptilian Nay votes.
She is a sad excuse for a Representative.
A small-minded prima donna.
.
edd browne | 09.29.08 - 11:00 pm | #
Shall fire Paulson. America is becoming Banana Republic. Everyone say meltdown but i only see healthy crash. Life still goes on. Not that serious. Vote aganist those senators in favour of the $700 Billion Bailout soon. Any congressmen or senators in favour of the bailout shall be voted out of congress. The Paulson plan is a Bailout for the Wall Street gamblers. Who say working Wall Street you can't go broke. This is part of life. If you want something to be done, The Professor ideas are not bad. It is better than rescue the wall street toxic debts that taxpayers have to pay in the ends. The properties supply and demand is out of whack. Who can make profit out of it? Paulson needs to be fired,he think he is still Goldman Sach CEO everyone will listen to him, his 3 pages plan stated that he is above the LAW? This is worst than the communists. May as well call him the Dictator of Wall Street if that what he wants.
McCain now has a unique opportunity to diffrentiate himself from both Bush and from Obama while promotes republican ideas that will gain wide support:
Create a real change in the financial industry.
Now is the time to restore confidence into the system - not by bailing out Wall Street but by focusing on full disclosure, real transparency on banks balance sheet, regulating derivatives and reducing the insane leverage banks (and shadow banks) were allowed to take.
The senator can provide leadership in a place were Paulson/Bush/Obama/Pelosi/Frank/Dodd are all wrong:
The solution is simple, it is elegant, and it will work.
1.\tForce all off-balance sheet "assets" back onto the balance sheet, and force the valuation models and identification of individual assets out of Level 3 and into 10Qs and 10Ks.
2.\tForce all OTC derivatives onto a regulated exchange similar to that used by listed options in the equity markets. This permanently defuses the derivatives time bomb. Give market participants 90 days; any that are not listed in 90 days are declared void; let the participants sue each other if they can't prove capital adequacy.
3.\tForce leverage by all institutions to no more than 12:1. The SEC intentionally dropped broker/dealer leverage limits in 2004; prior to that date 12:1 was the limit. Every firm that has failed had double or more the leverage of that former 12:1 limit. Enact this with a six month time limit and require 1/6th of the excess taken down monthly.
4.\tSwap bank debt-for-equity: This will reduce debt on banks balance sheets. Equity holders will be diluted which is the right thing to do since some banks are nearly bankrupt (insolvent not just illiquid
5.\tNo government money will go toward buying "distressed assets" that job will be left to the market place to perform price discovery. It is up to the free market to set prices and trade those "assets" (if they are assets at all) not the government job to buy them.
6.\tIn cases where government money is used it is used for one thing only: Buying equity stake in companies. If the government/taxpayer provides funds into the system they get the complete ownership and future stake in the success.
7.\tRestoration of confidence will also require that many in the financial industry who for years made profits worth billions in bonuses and stock options while bankrupting the very institutions they were robbing will be made to return some of this money to the US treasury.
never liked Maria ... high maintenance , high strung ...
Did you date her? I couldn't recognize her out of a lineup to be honest. I see CNBC when I'm trapped in an airport with it or eating lunch someplace where it's on. I know her strictly as a news figure.
Last thing I watched regularly was animaniacs nigh unto 20 years ago, a college GF and I would get high and watch it after class and before sex.
"Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve will pump an additional $630 billion into the global financial system, flooding banks with cash to alleviate the worst banking crisis since the Great Depression. . ."
"Now let's think about this folks. The Fed threw $630 billion into the market before the vote, and yet the S&P 500 was down 40 handles anyway, and in fact tanked after the vote.
"Note carefully--Paulson's plan was $700 billion, and Bernanke spends $630 billion--almost the entire amount proposed--and failed to fix the problem. . . We were about to piss $700 billion into a tornado and lose it forever."
ouch,....given that i don't want to pay more than 14x LTM EPS, I need to see SPX 850 (down another 23%) just to set up an expected 8% 5 yr CAGR.
Pretty good analysis, craig.
What I think you're missing is the impact of higher tax rates and higher interest rates (discount rates) on corporations.
Given the now-likely outcome of Obama, I'd lower the P/E threshold from about 14 to 12. On the basis of discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, this would represent an increase in the discount rate of 1-2% and an increase in effective corporate tax rates of 5-10%.
Doesn't that lower your buy-in target into the low 800s or high 700s?
What is with all of the bank holiday stuff? You work for one and haven't been able to get a day off?
Yeah, I want to see them nationalized too, but...
homedad43 | Homepage | 09.29.08 - 10:50 pm | #
As for bank holiday... How many years did it take to get answers on the books at Freddy & Fannie? And then try to do that on a worldwide basis w/ banks FAR larger with even worse paper???
If we get a 'bank holiday' its gonna last a decade... I don't think there will be enough squirrels.
dryfly | 09.29.08 - 10:55 pm | #
Excellent point. In 1924 my dad was seven and lived on squirrel stew for a whole year (he was sick and for some reason was the only thing he could keep down). Never personally tasted tree rat and don't really want to.
It would take a brigade of accountants to sort out just one mega-banks trash, this is worldwide and I just wonder which COUNTRY will default first.
Plantagenet writes:
October MS 20 puts. I've got them. When to sell?
My advice (much lambasted on here) about trading options is that whenever you get a big % move - get your principal back and only play with the house's money. It's much easier to trade options when it's only your profit fluctuating on the screen.
Yeah, in NY too, Rich. Did you see the article in nymag about the natural gas sitting under the Catskills? Say goodbye to the pristine landscape and hello to poison run-off and scalped mountain tops.
Man-moth | 09.29.08 - 10:55 pm | #
FYI - you don't scrape mtn tops for gas - you do that for coal... gas they drill & tap and then run pipe to collect... use a lot of water sometimes but it doesn't have to be 'clean water'... and they have plenty of it up there unlike Wyoming, Colorado, Montana.
I think it would be wise to wait until after the election before making any decisions. The noise level will go down on its own.
Grease Monkey is a wonderful thing. Every time I see a moronic partisan (or misogynistic, or say Jas Jain) comment, the kill file's just a click away. If you notice other commenters saying they've redeemed themselves, then you can check for yourself.
Seems to me a lot of the regulars are still here, posting and joking in the midst of the chaos. Great blog CR.
And you know how many people in Texas, Arkansas, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia have big pools of shale natural gas sitting right under their houses.
We also have the largest reserves of coal in the world.
We're rich enough to think about the environment first, for now.
re:Asian markets. I heard that Japan is intervening to mitigate losses in their market.
"We simply can not allow the government to be able to artificially define prices."
I'm probably completely unqualified to comment here. But whenever I see a comment like the one above I recall how artificially defined prices were the symptoms of a morbid economy and a dysfunctional society.
FYI - you don't scrape mtn tops for gas - you do that for coal... gas they drill & tap and then run pipe to collect... use a lot of water sometimes but it doesn't have to be 'clean water'... and they have plenty of it up there unlike Wyoming, Colorado, Montana.
The stuff in the Catskills is the same shale formations they have in Wyoming, Colorado and Montana. To get to it, in any case, they have have to drill horizonatally and "frag" the shale rock so that it releases little pockets of natural gas. But there's lots of it and it adds up.
The problem is...the shale gas they found in the Barnett in TX and the Fayetteville in Arkansas was pretty plentiful and cheap to lease.
The center of the shale find in the East is in Western PA. It's also pretty established in most of WV and some parts of TX and SW New York State. But the Catskills? That's like buying Google at $600 a share. It's high-priced smoke and mirrors.
There once was a room full of power.
Who decided that bailouts should flower.
When push came to shove.
they put on a glove.
cuz, cramdowns dont get paid by the hour.
Here's a fairly reliable market signal (happened before Jan, March, July IT bottoms) that I'm watching intently to sell the rest of my S&P + DOW ultrashorts: it's called the TICK index (NYSE). You can see it change live intraday on stockcharts.com under $TICK.
I'm surprised it didn't flash a "bottom/reversal" warning today. I want (preferably days two near each other) a low TICK of minus 1400 or greater. The TICK (I believe) measures selling/buying pressure - like the degree or constancy of it. So if very high and very low TICKs are about pure FEAR and GREED. I'll update on it if I see anything. (Plus it happens real time - its a leading indicator)
Why the Bailout need to be passed?
The FED just pumps in 600 Billion into the banking System. The markets is still intact in asia. Dow future is even in the green. Are you american stupid enough to be conned by Dictator Paulson that wants to use his 3 pages bailout plan to control the banking system. He is above the Law in the original plan. Imaging what his brain is thinking. Imaging the COngress is voting for dictatorship not the well-being of the normal american that work hard and save.
Vote against those in favour of the $700 Billion Bailout. Asia markets are still around, no meltdown as Warren Buffett mentions. Taxpayers shall not bailout wall street Gamblers. They say the bill collapse we see meltdown? Where is the meltdown?
Here is why something to do with ICBC is potentially significant. There are four legacy State banks in China, and ICBC is the one through which many of the US/PRC ventures goes through, as well as (maybe) most of the Chinese direct investment.
So, if the US is "bailing out" an unfailable State bank (even if they did sell stock a while back), then one has to wonder...
I am female,Can I still post catty comments about Sarah Palin? If not,Can any of my 3 daughters or almost all of their girl friends or my female friends who detest Sarah post.I see many thinly hidden jabs at Obama.Is that OK?
Byzantine_Ruins writes:
Do you mean that you favor or do not favor moderated and registered comments?
I think registration is a bad idea and will rob the venue of much of its character and all of its charm.
Way too many people post here who shouldn't. It's better when it's the 4chan of the financial world. I know it's the crew of the Crimson Permanent Assurance, that's why I come here.
Byzantine_Ruins
Go ahead - register and watch CR's advertising revenues cliff dive like today's market. Sorry we're not as intellegent and handsome as you and the other "Economists" who post here. Registering is so NYTimes and Republican.
Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) just announced that the House will be in session on Thursday, a sign that Democratic leaders are going to work hard to deflect blame for today's debacle over the Wall Street bailout plan.
At this time, the House is scheduled to meet at noon on Thursday," Hoyer said in a statement just released by his office. "However, whether the House will consider legislation regarding the economic crisis has not been determined."
Hoyer added: "We will continue to work around the clock in a bipartisan manner to forge a solution to the serious threat confronting the economic security of millions of American families."
The House adopted an adjournment resolution today that closed the chamber until early January, although the anticipation had been that Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) would call members back to Washington in mid-November, following the elections.
But with the bailout meltdown, and the huge drop in stock prices, Democratic leaders are now signaling they won't leave town until some kind of rescue package is approved by Congress.
dryfly writes: FYI - you don't scrape mtn tops for gas - you do that for coal... gas they drill & tap and then run pipe to collect... use a lot of water sometimes but it doesn't have to be 'clean water'... and they have plenty of it up there unlike Wyoming, Colorado, Montana.
In Ohio, it's even easier, like putting in a well tap... if you find a gas seep, it's usually good for 10 years or so of free power. Odds are pretty good in many areas, but it's not a guarantee, and you gotta pay for the drilling regardless of whether you find the seep or not. That's what stops most people: people hate the chance of getting nothing after spending a few thousand, even with the nice upside.
Cramer is restyling himself as some sort of UberBear from way back. There are 2000 visitors on CR at midday. I found myself in agreement with both Sebastian and Jas Jain (well, partially) in the same thread.
WTF is going on?!? Did someone slip something in my drink?
Wash your hands after eating squirrel or you may have flu-like symptoms; you also should cook them until well done, versus dipping them in sauce in a raw state!
El Cliffo - KD has some good things wrapped in dogma. He is right about the FED pumping money and the entire thing still dips - its the hedgies liquidating, its Hanky's timing, and it nerves.
I will give KD one great thing he was ahead of all us asking us to send mssgs of protest to the over-lords.
And yet, they are screeching about how the end is near! Panic! Recession! The Great Depression! Y2K! Bird flu! Killer bees! We must pass the bailout bill today!! The sky is falling! The sky is falling!
Falling for whom? NOTHING in this "bailout" package will lower the price of the gas you have to put in your car to get to work. NOTHING in this bill will protect you from losing your home. NOTHING in this bill will give you health insurance.
Health insurance? Mike, why are you bringing this up? What's this got to do with the Wall Street collapse?
Ugly <a href="http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_ES.Z08.E&t=f>bearish flag forming on the ES after hours. Ugh. I kinda wanted to see a gap down so I could sell on somewhat reliable "capitulation." If we go up tomorrow without tagging today's lows first it's just another A-B=C-D down to who knows where. Just my take.
I see rate cuts and some emergency power thing; guess I better go see what they have left in the bag of tricks; speaking of bags, give my regards to conjure!
So remember how everyone warned that chasing out the shorts would impact liquidity in the markets? How we would have ASK only action?
Check out the Bloomberg quote above. The worst case scenario is starting to play out. Without liquidity a very few number of BID's can move the market in extreme ways.....
I just listened to the entire Pelosi tirade again. It's almost as if it was designed to batter Republicans into reptilian Nay votes.
I despise Pelosi, but for once she was speaking the truth. Why she chose such an untimely moment to speak it, I don't know. Maybe she just deeply resented how her party was being put in the position of rescuing the Party That Wrecked America.
third?
get long Lira!
Dexia? That's not even a word.
Bond Guy, M3 is no longer officially reported, but at least two public sources I know of are compiling their own M3 data using its still publicly available constituents. John William's Shadow Stats and Now and the Future
I like 1050 on the S&P tomorrow, then the sellers from Hedge-istan will be all wrapped up nice and tidy for redemptions.
When will King and Trichet wake up and cut rates?
Natixis also isn't even a word! They look worse than Dexia.
Or is "Dexia" French for "WaMu"?
The Irish banks are next. Stay tuned....
OT (but what really is nowadays).
Energy stocks (coal, nat gas, oil companies) are dirt cheap, some with PE's in the 7-8 range. Granted, some energy use will slow. But the unemployed still need heat. And if we get hyperinflation, won't they rise as well?
Dexia is the parent of bond insurer FSA.
Looks like their subsidiary Financial Security Assurance Inc. has not worked out for them.
From Bloomberg,
"Dexia has come under pressure after bailing out Financial Security Assurance Inc., its New York-based bond insurance unit. Dexia agreed in August to provide $300 million to FSA after provisions tied to the subprime crisis led to a loss at the unit. That followed a $5 billion credit line to FSA Dexia agreed to in June, and $500 million it put into the unit in February. "
Full Bloomberg Story Here
And yes - the comments have become overwhelming. For giggles I looked back to 2007 when I first began lurking here and saw many threads with fewer than 100 comments. Now with threads over 1000 comments its all but impossible to sift the wheat from the chaff.
I suppose "FSA" is French for SFA?
OT: the sun never sets when markets start falling: From MarketWatch: Sell Off Tsunami
dr munch,
It is perfectly normal for energy stocks to have PEs in the 7-8 range. That does not mean that they are cheap.
It's hard for most energy companies (think big oil) to do well in hyperinflation. They can't raise prices fast enough with bringing down the political class with cries of price gouging.
I prefer energy service companies. Small distinction perhaps, but I think important.
did the SEC extend the band on short selling.
Business hits back after Congress bailout vote
Business hits back after Congress bailout vote
| Reuters
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the nation's largest business lobbying group and a vocal bailout proponent, responded quickly after the vote with a letter to all members of Congress.
"Make no mistake: when the aftermath of congressional inaction becomes clear, Americans will not tolerate those who stood by and let the calamity happen," said the letter, urging reconsideration and passage of "financial rescue legislation."
"The chamber will score votes on, or in relation to, this issue in our annual 'How They Voted' scorecard," it said.
A Forecast:
Some candidate in the 2012 Prez Election cycle will be addressing folks in the heartland and be overheard to say:
"You have to understand, these former big city finance folks now serving you at Taco Bell and McD's are bitter. They fervently cling to their copies of Atlas Shrugged and Free to Choose, certain things will get better soon if they just believe strong enough."
wha?
The Chamber of Commerce has spoken?
The whole world is getting into the act. Just been 'listening' to Bloomberg TV -Asia and cooking dinner... havin' fun over there 'tonight-tomorrow' too.
Guess they weren't too happy 'bout our almost bailout.
OT: I have seen at least 4 different people over the past month or so on trains and subways reading Atlas Shrugged. I confess myself to reading it again (first time was 20 years ago) after hearing repeated mention of how Greenspan was a Randite on these very blogs. Another good re-read was Lucifers Hammer also suggested on this blog.
Just saw Krugman on Larry King. He says that not passing the bailout was a mistake. Thoughts?
True, but there is a drag on stocks of commodities producers when the stock market as a whole is tanking. Energy stocks correlate at something like .85 with the S&P.
It's best to go with the actually energy commodities until stocks bottom. I really like DBE because it's diversified among energy commodities and also because it has a cool method for maximizing roll yield on commodities contracts.
Deutche Bank and PowerShares really are innovators in the commodities ETF space.
I like this, getting to learn about foreign companies.
I didn't know anything about Fortis other than it feasted on ABN Amro just before the crunch
85,000 employees worldwide. That is 770 milli-AIG
*Shiller coming up next on CNBC
I think Krugman's credibility takes a hit when he's a guest on Larry King.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
House members rejected bailout because voters back home hated it
By David Lightman, McClatchy Newspapers
Mon Sep 29, 5:55 PM ET
WASHINGTON Almost until the early afternoon vote Monday on the financial rescue plan, voters bombarded congressional offices, protesting almost in unison: Don't bail out renegade financial executives and companies.
On Monday, House members, who face the voters in five weeks, listened to their constituents rather than their party leaders and rejected the $700 billion financial rescue package. For many, it was just too much to swallow too quickly, and too hard to explain...
whatever
just plod along.
unless this is the final chapter of american history, we should all be fine.
and by fine i mean, you know, eating.
or can we?
uhhh...
The voters hate it or the "Prime Movers" hate it?
Wow , another Euro Bank ...
When will these central banks see this is systemic and call for a world bank holiday to sort out the solvent and insolvent banks ...
These insolvent banks are going to take down the world financial system if they are not ferreted out ...
Just saw Krugman on Larry King. He says that not passing the bailout was a mistake. Thoughts?
The US government does not have the resources to bail out the entire global financial system. It would only pile on national debt, raising interest rates in the process by crowding out private investments, and make matters worse.
The voters hate it or the "Prime Movers" hate it?
You mean the Tax Payers?
Anonymous writes:
Just saw Krugman on Larry King. He says that not passing the bailout was a mistake. Thoughts?
Anonymous | 09.29.08 - 9:45 pm | #
Not as it was structured. We'll see a bailout - no doubt about it - just a matter of 'what' & 'when'. We can do better. We can also do worse. We'll see.
Comrade Bagholders,
There's a reason I vacationed in Mt, west side just south of the Canadian border a few weeks ago.
You know, they have open carry laws there. And Moose, and squirrel. And fire wood.
Just sayin'
Nostrovia,
Just saw Krugman on Larry King. He says that not passing the bailout was a mistake. Thoughts?
What does Larry King think about the bailout?
Look at it this way...
Buffet pissed off at least three reps by shooting off his big mouth and talking his book, on a position he initiated solely to manipulate a bailout.
The stupid conference call last night pissed off three votes.
Pelosi pissed off three votes with her egotistic, arrogant rant.
Ballgame over.
Conjure Bag would say: 'Someone hold me
Since when is a reading disability considered financial news?
Calculated Risk writes:
Voter Database, I'm working on a better comment system with registration and better moderation. Hopefully we can get bring back the regulars.
Best to all.
Calculated Risk | Homepage | 09.29.08 - 8:30 pm | #
Just saw Krugman on Larry King. He says that not passing the bailout was a mistake. Thoughts?
Nobody is right. This is like throwing a chair into a hole in the fuselage of an airplane that sticks for a moment and then gets sucked into the void nevertheless. Best to conserve ammo, and more importantly, MAKE SHOTS COUNT.
My take on the bailout is that many do not want intervention because we want less goobermint in our lives. Less taxes, less debt, less everything.
Heck, I was in Yellowstone Park in August and met some od the most down to earth people who probably wouldn't miss Wall Street or DC if they went BK!
These boneheads try to stir up all the sheeple into believing we need them. Sorry, you need us more than we need you. DC and WS need to get oever themselves. I am so sick of these guys/gals.
Tell Maria Bartiromo and Dylan Ragdoll to get real jobs and stop talking about how the Filet Mignon will not be served this evening. Get out there and work at Dairy Queen for a day! Pigs! I hate them all!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Commisar Misean:
try Oregon, the bums cant eve eat the deer meat road kill...concealed permits are the NORM.
they just beg for food...
The US government does not have the resources to bail out the entire global financial system. It would only pile on national debt, raising interest rates in the process by crowding out private investments, and make matters worse.
Nobody | Homepage | 09.29.08 - 9:48 pm |
No but it does have the ability to borrow $1tn per year for its cumulative defence budget which allows it to occupy the Aswan dam and collect fees for passage. Or was the the British? No the British never spent 33% of federal receipts on their military...
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has been against every regulation ever thought of ...
They are the poster children of this debacle ...
Tell Donohue to go kwrfuwurgfj himself.
Who cares what Larry King thinks. Krugman and Ben Stein agreed that not passing the bailout was a mistake. Krugman was shocked that he was agreeing with anything that Ben Stein said.
I thought Krugman was one of this blog's heroes.
i know but come on, maria bartiroma (sp?) gets a pass in my book for anything at any time
Krugman is turning into a celebrity economist, kind of like Roubini.
Personally, I don't tune in to Larry King for economic counsel.
I'd be very wary appearing on King's show for fear that Larry would die in mid-sentence.
we've always been at war with Eurasia
It seemed to me that Krugman was just holding out for the plan to include an equity interest in the companies that use the facility. To me that did not address the economic questions of whether the bailout would work. As much as I respect him, I lumped him into the do something for the sake of doing something category.
dc1000,
Maria? Erin's more to my liking...
dc1000 writes:
i know but come on, maria bartiroma (sp?) gets a pass in my book for anything at any time
dc1000 | 09.29.08 - 9:51 pm | #
Maria, does not get a pass. She makes me sick. She's just another pig at the tough. She wouldn't give a commoner the time of day. She can rot!
we've always been at war with Eurasia
you mean Elbonia?
OCDan,
You gotta chill out, turn off the volume and just admire the info-babes for the real reason they were hired.
This comment is sort of last thread, but there doesn't seem to be much discussion of homestead exemptions regarding the decision/reality of personal BK's and their role in peoples ability to keep their homes. It varies state to state, but I just did a search on the term, and (gee, how did Google know?) I got lots of info on TX.
In Texas, if you live outside city limits, your homestead exemption includes: 100 acres (200 acres for families); 2 firearms; home furnishings, including family heirlooms; 2 horses, mules or donkeys and a saddle, blanket and bridle for each, and so on. (Not making this up!)
The point is, subject to the labyrinth of state and federal law, is it not possible that many people might be able to stay in their homes, at least in certain, more populist, states?
"you mean Elbonia?"
We are all Elbonians now
As for Erin. Crybaby. Man up! You are gushing when the Dow is up 3 points, but it goes down 777 points and you look like a weekend bender at Daytona Beach during spring break.
Crickey, when the SHTF, she is gonna have a meltdown of more than just her mascara! Just another Harpie!
I don't think it's possible for a financial services firm to go broke.
This must be a mistake.
Be nice to Maria and Erin.
There merely capitalist tools and serve a useful purpose, like airplanes and machine tools.
FT.com / Financials - Economic fears take toll on Irish banks
Sebastian Orsi, an analyst at Merrion stockbrokers, pointed out that loan to deposit ratios in Ireland are about 150 per cent, compared with 130 per cent in the EU.
Let's hope the bank holding companies have some stellar assets on their books to maintain their reserve requirements.
Austin Tex
no dollar limit ? usually there's a dollar limit ...
Bond Girl --
I think Krugman has bought into the idea that the banking system as a whole is quite possibly insolvent, and "we" need to do something about that.
Krugman and other economists seem to think that direct equity stakes -- nationalization, essentially -- is the right way to recapitalize the banks.
He does not seem to spill much ink about what happens after that.
If Maria Bartiromo was a cashier at the local market, people would never even notice her.
Some people are just enamored by fame. It's a disease related to consumerism.
Need to say this. Sorry a bit O/T..
Todays sell of was more about hedge redemptions not the passage of some legislation. Once the fate was decided, it was better to capture gains (rather avoid further losses). Hanky had good timing.
Bear, I can't admire them for what they are because they are nothing more than prostitutes for WS.
In fact, the only person that channel worth anyting is Santelli and you can tell because they barely give that guy 3 seconds of air time when he is cut to.
Heck, if we have to go to MSNBC for babes we really are looking at a severe depression!
Oh Mrs Greenspan is a hottie OCDan, admit it.
This thread is worse than during the debate. CR needs to delete.
We are all Elbonians now
Yeah, Hank apparently likes the Elbonian solution to crisis
"no dollar limit ? usually there's a dollar limit ..."
Here's what it says in
Bankruptcy in Texas - Texas exemptions
Unlimited; property cannot exceed 1 acre in town, village, city or 100 acres (200 acres for families) elsewhere; sale proceeds exempt for 6 months after sale (need not occupy if not acquire another home, Property 41.003)
May file homestead declaratio
Comrade Kristina writes:
Oh Mrs Greenspan is a hottie OCDan, admit it.
Comrade Kristina | 09.29.08 - 9:58 pm | #
Actually, Mr. Magoo is quite the dapper one, himself! OHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH, those lips!!!!!
"If Maria Bartiromo was a cashier at the local market, people would never even notice her."
Something you should know if you have never met one of these in person: What looks like a normal sized mouth on TV is quite large in person. When a person appears to have a large mouth on TV, it's quite amazing to see in person.
Maria would be noticed in a local market, but not in the way you were thinking.
ocdan - santelli is the man. he is the one guy i watch every time he comes on. in fact, i'll keep the volume off til her comes on.
i love maria for personal reasons, and there's another one who kinda looks like that chick from the apprentice one year.....
This thread is worse than during the debate. CR needs to delete.
mostly, the comment section is for levity.
Just mod the good comments +1 insightful
I would add the real story in this is the credit rating on a sub called FSA (caution small pdf):
http://www.fsa.com/system/press_release/file_name/95/rel2q08.pdf
Austin Tex
if you don't need collateral and own it outright yeah ...
if you homestead after a mortgage there may be a problem ...
Did any of the House members read the bill, or listen to that SIFMA (Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association) conference call with Henry Paulson last night?
Just wondering?
And, in passing, did SIFMA fix its web sight to not give me computer viruses?
Just wondering again...
Come on you guys that think we are having too much fun. We gotta have some levity at this crisis moment in our goobermint's history.
It's all good fun.
Where else would we go?
I think Krugman has bought into the idea that the banking system as a whole is quite possibly insolvent, and "we" need to do something about that.
Krugman and other economists seem to think that direct equity stakes -- nationalization, essentially -- is the right way to recapitalize the banks.
He does not seem to spill much ink about what happens after that.
I think that he, along with virtually everyone else, is reluctant to admit that nobody has the slightest clue about what to do other than to throw money at the problem.
We're really in terra incognita here and there is no government backstop because the government neither has the resources nor any workable ideas nor the political will to do anything about it.
So what we need to do is to let the market correction happen, bolster our social insurance programs to alleviate the unavoidable pain to come, spend more money to clean up after failed businesses and banks, and let the market correct itself.
Roubini and Krugman are giants--both should get respect when their ideas are different than ours. If either were to become Treasury Secretary, I'd favor any plan they submitted.
Schiller showing his idiocy on CNBC: We dont need bailouts but we need a bailout this time.
He can read the RE sales charts and truly interpolate the same, but he has theYale disease when it comes to solutions.
Ah. So such things are not going to be able to come into play in an over-mortgaged (or "and"-mortgaged) situation?
Comrade Baholders,
Anyone got a link to CSC's video?
BTW I think Maria B. is quite attractive. But I don't like her. If she had something of mine in her mouth, I wouldn't say no...or pull out...or whatever.
Nostrovia,
"Where else would we go?"
Atlantic City? Vegas?
Peoria, Illinois?
This thread is worse than during the debate. CR needs to delete.
there is nothing left to discuss.
its really just about waiting and seeing what happens.
i mean for god's sake, JAS JAIN has props 'round here these days...
Comrade Misean,
You're not fooling anybody. We all know you'd bed the Incredible Maria Limpet if given half a chance.
Austin Tex
still may be of use against legal action outside the property lien holders ...
definitely need a lawyer ...
I would like to hear them explain how much they think it would take to recapitalize the banks, because with the inside information the Treasury would have, this should be something they could model. I'm not saying they could arrive at a great valuation for the assets, but they could arrive at something less arbitrary.
It gets kind of exhausting listening to people talk about the federal government like it has unlimited resources, such that absorbing these risks does not have major consequences that need to be considered. And to me that is what the nationalization argument amounts to.
I would have been more sympathetic with Paulson if he had attempted to inventory the distressed assets in the market before asking for money. I likely would have still thought the bailout was a bum deal (for the reason above), but I would have at least been sympathetic to him. Everything about the bill struck me as arbitrary though. Like, "let's just pick a number big enough that people think it sounds like it can accomplish a lot." This works because most people have no clue exactly how out of hand the derivatives market got. But they can say "establish guidelines" all they want - they have no idea how massive the universe of investment vehicles they are describing can be and what power they are giving him.
Someone called Schiller and Krugman. They said, "We need you guys to play ball on this and support the bailout. You'll get your rewards if you do." These guys know the real score, but they don't have the guts to refuse the order. That's why Krugman is on Larry King's retarded show.
I would have been more sympathetic with Paulson if he had attempted to inventory the distressed assets in the market before asking for money.
I think he did.
we've always been at war with Eurasia
you mean Elbonia?
Missed Information | 09.29.08 - 9:54 pm | #
The Orwell reference falls flat?
The moment the Republicans killed the bill I knew that Krugman supported it. The guy is just a left-wing version of Ben Stein. He's gaming for Treasury Secretary next Spring.
OT- No one in my neighborhood seems to know or care about this. It's creepy. I'm surrounded by a hundred McMansions and everyone appears to be going about their normal business.
No gas in Atlanta or Charlotte? Eh, who cares?
Banks stopped lending? So what?
Something about that indifference makes me very nervous. Not sure what it is.
Comrade Bagholder Patrick Bateman,
"We all know you'd bed the Incredible Maria Limpet if given half a chance."
Well yes I would.
So?
Nostrovia.
We don't get it...
Steven Pearlstein - They Just Don't Get It - washingtonpost.com
http://www.stephaniehaywood.com/uploads/my%20little%20pony.jpg
mp, would you feed the ponies to your familiar already? They've been galloping around for 15 minutes and it's already far too long.
Anyway, it would have to be national in scope to be effective.
The reason I brought it up is that the social fabric rips real bad when lots of people lose their homes, even if the causes were their own habits.
I'm thinking about, e.g., scenes in the movie Seabiscuit.
I can imagine Roubini's speech on being appointed treasury secretary would match those of Ray Patterson from The Simpsons after Homer's reign as sanitation commissioner ruins Springfield:
Oh gosh. You know, I'm not much on speeches, but, it's so gratifying to leave you wallowing in the mess you've made. You're screwed, thank you, bye.
For whatever it is worth, I like the comments section the way it is.
sm landlord and rich. Thanks for the feedback on energy stocks. If we ever do have lots of "plug in" cars, what ends up charging them? If a fridge takes $15 a month to power, what about a car?
Why@ ZIRP writes:
I would have been more sympathetic with Paulson if he had attempted to inventory the distressed assets in the market before asking for money.
I think he did.
Why do you say that? It really does not seem that way to me.
Bond Girl writes:
I would like to hear them explain how much they think it would take to recapitalize the banks.
~~~~~~
Some banks are going to have to be liquidated, there is no hope ... with the housing crisis getting worse more will follow ....
No use spending tax dollars on there.
For whatever it is worth, I like the comments section the way it is.
I just think there are serious legal / legal exposure issues to registration and "going legit".
I thought Krugman was one of this blog's heroes.
Yes, but not to the point of orthodoxy. I asked what Larry King's views were, somewhat sarcastically, only because we all know Krugman's ideas, almost as soon as they're posted. Krugman supported the bailout, but Roubini and Stiglitz did not. They favor a Swedish-type plan, which I believe is far superior (but hopefully not necessary). Roubini characterized the Paulson bailout as similar to those conducted in Japan, and Mexico. In addition, I had a problem with Krugman's comment this afternoon that "we've become a banana republic with nukes."
Nemo | Homepage | 09.29.08 - 9:26 pm | #
Dexia? That's not even a word.
Youre thinking of dyslexia.
yeah, delete the comment about the Lira,
WTF is that?
this is real, folks writes:
We don't get it...
Error - washingtonpost.com? hpid=topnews
funny - the article seems to imply that if only the bill would pass the deleveraging would stop - and reverse.
And that would be a good thing, right?
Some banks are going to have to be liquidated, there is no hope ... with the housing crisis getting worse more will follow ....
No use spending tax dollars on there.
Exactly, which is why they never got specific.
Here's what gets me about this failed bill.
Why am I upset again with this great plan and why does this make sense only to the banksters and Paulson?
We don't get it...
? hpid=topnews
Error - washingtonpost.com
this is real, folks
~~~~
same paper that reported that over a hundred economists were agin' it
That Pearlstein article is wrong in so many ways . . .
It's cute how he crams all the appropriate buzzwords into the article: systemic, credit bubble, deleveraging, recapitalized, etc.
"Golly! This guy must 'get it'. He said 'systemic'!"
i love maria for personal reasons, and there's another one who kinda looks like that chick from the apprentice one year.....
You're talking about Rebecca Jarvis. Reinforcing the point of how bad CNBC actually is, she was a contestant on the Apprentice.
THERE WILL BE NO RECOVERY UNTIL THE UNSECURED CREITORS FEEL SAFE.
get it.
I am told that a natural gas-powered car could be pretty efficient, given a little Silicon Valley technology.
And you know how many people in Texas, Arkansas, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia have big pools of shale natural gas sitting right under their houses.
So, development of natural gas cars would serve two purposes. It would revitalize Detroit and also give people in these states the opportunity to start up filling stations.
creditors.
sorry
I just think there are serious legal / legal exposure issues to registration and "going legit".
Byzantine_Ruins
Mr. Ruins,
Do you mean that you favor or do not favor moderated and registered comments?
It seems there are a few people who have an issue with others who do not meet their standards or post according to their personal criteria. If they ruled, the comments section would be shallow and boring. All personality would be scrubbed.
The dissatisfied are most likely accountants. They wouldn't know levity unless it could be expressed in numbers.
You know, the best thing the bailout advocates could do for their cause right now would be to put Paulson into a mental hospital.
The man was a turnoff to voters when he was all together.
And he is definitely not well.
Comrade Bagholders,
Krugman is a tool. Roubini isn't. Both are to the left. I am, quite obviously to the right.
There you have it...
Nostrovia,
I just think there are serious legal / legal exposure issues to registration and "going legit".
we could just register as various bags.
Conjure Bag is taken.
I reserve the Missed Bag nick.
Laws don't apply if you are just a piece of furniture.
If Maria was a cashier, she couldn't make change. She's got a caboose-a-plenty, and wouldn't look good in person, I'd suspect.
we could just register as various bags.
Conjure Bag is taken.
I reserve the Missed Bag nick.
Missed Information
~~~~~
I'll take dime bag ...
You're talking about Rebecca Jarvis. Reinforcing the point of how bad CNBC actually is, she was a contestant on the Apprentice.
Well golly gee, Gomer. Who will CNBC use when the goobermint finally goes BK and we are in a depression, Donald Trump and his 3 easy ways to BK a a casino and declare BK not once, but twice, even though daddy spotted him his start?
This is why duhmerica is where it is. We continue to watch tv and too many people actually listen and believe what is said/done on it!
As a sports fan, I have seen this w/ESPN. When ESPN first came on it was a little rough, but had something.
Now it is all about the hosts. Berman needs oxygen after one sentence and all the ex-athletes/coaches amke me puke. If you know so much, why are on some lame-brain show?
Do you mean that you favor or do not favor moderated and registered comments?
I think registration is a bad idea and will rob the venue of much of its character and all of its charm.
Way too many people post here who shouldn't. It's better when it's the 4chan of the financial world. I know it's the crew of the Crimson Permanent Assurance, that's why I come here.
I don't know what you gain by requiring registration, etc., except that it might prevent someone from making comments under another person's name. If people cannot contribute anonymously, however, that will probably be the end of contribution by market types that have to deal with compliance agents and similar concerns.
Plus you can't be textbook all the time
Guys what gives...
I dread every time Maria/Erin/Meridith comes up on a thread...
Mixed company here, please post accordingly...
Palin resigns?
YouTube - Maddow & Olbermann Discuss McCain/Palin Spindoctoring
Did anyone else read/hear that Paulson bailed out AIG because Goldman Sachs had a 30 billion dollar trade that would have gone under? That's outrageous if true.
You're talking about Rebecca Jarvis. Reinforcing the point of how bad CNBC actually is, she was a contestant on the Apprentice.
rowen | 09.29.08 - 10:17 pm | #
well thank you very much, kind sir!
i saw her on CNBC, thought nah that couldnt be her, looked it on their website and no mention of apprentice.
Registeration. Just another hurdle to free speech.
This is what is great here. People can air out, vent, learn, add/chime in.
That is what makes the Internet scary for the Powers. They can't control it, YET!!!!!!!!
Bond Girl-
Just a deduction and I could be wrong, but Secretary Paulson came to the Congress asking for money only after the Lehman BK and AIG's effective BK. He could have learned a lot about what they were holding and made some pretty reasonable estimates of what else was out there. Also they may have written swaps on the actual assets of other entities. More evidence.
The banks and insurance companies have been a black box to Treasury and the Fed since the crisis began. Stands to reason that when part of that system became visible and it was far uglier than had been assumed, panic ensued. The Fed and Treasury looked into the abyss and didn't like it one bit.
Just my humble opinion. Could be way off base. Shoot me down if you can, I'd welcome evidence to the contrary.
I come here mostly for the comments. It's a motley crew, for sure, and that's what I enjoy. Experts, comedians, weirdos, trolls, the whole bit.
Other than spammers, I welcome the diversity. It is what makes CR unique and the most interesting/stimulating blog on the internet.
my holder has just moved to Switzerland, any takers?
CR-
If the indians are getting too numerous, you might consider restricting comments to subscribers only.
I'd hate to see the levity go because I value it as much as the hard analysis, but, it might tamper down on the nonsense.
Including mine:)
Sorry for the O.T.
The more I learn, the more I realize how important, no, critical it is that any bailout plan does not pass in the US.
We simply can not allow the government to be able to artificially define prices. There were no cries for 'help' to set the prices when the spiral was going in the upward direction. And now it is time for the adults to take over who understand WHY we can not set these prices.
re: Missed Bag
sucks to be you. My holder took me with him.
Krugman and other economists seem to think that direct equity stakes -- nationalization, essentially -- is the right way to recapitalize the banks.
He does not seem to spill much ink about what happens after that.
Nemo | Homepage | 09.29.08 - 9:57 pm | #
I know what they do after that - the 'sovereign' patches it up with its own freshly printed fiat, owns a big chunk of the equity and then sells it back into an inflated market and makes a killing.
Its good to be king.
Semi OT.
I set up a poll on TARP. Cast your vote here:
http://polls.blogflux.com/poll-30323.html
Map of results here:
http://polls.blogflux.com/mapfull-30323.html
I see no one else is posting on Dexia, so I'll get this in.
Usual catch-phrase: when US sneezes, Asia catches a cold. Well, with ASX, NZX, Nikkei already off by around 5%, we could conclude it's more like pneumonia. This is another angle for those writing to reps and sens, that the current situation is screwing frinds and allies. It's not the prime reason to do a deal, sure, but we need to think of our friends.
Let's not turn a sneeze into ebola for the Asia-Pacific.
I am getting horrible 97 vibes.
M
If you don't like the comments, leave. Or just read the comments from dudes/dudesses who you know the names of.
I agree that Paulson seems to be cracking under the pressure. And he hopes a dump truck of bailout money for the bankers to feed on will make this all go away.
dr munch writes:
She's got a caboose-a-plenty, and wouldn't look good in person, I'd suspect.
dr munch | 09.29.08 - 10:21 pm | #
That's only a problem if you're a 'front of the train' kinda guy. Not all are.
Screw the comment moderation idea. Its a big day, deal with it...whiners.
Re: the Chamber of Commerce
"The chamber will score votes on, or in relation to, this issue in our annual 'How They Voted' scorecard," it said."
Bullsh!t they will. Their supported candidates deserve most of the blame for this and they are still running ads for them.
-wtf
"We don't get it..."
Yeah, well, don't worry about it because Steven Pearlstein just got "conjured."
Maria dressed like a nun today. That accounted for about 250 points down today.
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: How Voter Fury Stopped The Bailout
How Voter Fury Stopped The Bailout
Inquiring minds are considering the Wall Street Journal article How Voter Fury Stopped Bailout
Left-Right Combo By Opponents Put Plan on the Ropes.
The defeat in Congress of a proposed $700 billion economic-rescue package followed an intense outpouring of voter anger, fanned by politicians, interest groups and media on the left and right, that overwhelmed calls from the president and top lawmakers to pass the deal.
Voters opposed to the deal deluged Capitol Hill with letters, emails, phone calls and faxes over the past week. Some 23,000 signatures were collected over two days by Sen. Bernie Sanders, a Vermont Independent, calling for a five-year, 10% surtax on the wealthiest Americans to help fund the bailout. Some prominent conservatives and bloggers criticized the deal as an unwarranted intervention in the free market.
On his Web site in recent days, Rep. Issa has posted letters and emails from some of the more than 2,000 constituents he said had contacted him about the proposal, including one from "Greg" in Temecula, Calif., who called the proposal "poorly thought out and rushed to the floor."
"I am 45 and a husband and father of 4. I am outraged and appalled at the arrogance of my President and the lack of regard for what is right," the message said...
Where is "blood in the streets"? SP500 less than 1000?
Why the big currency swaps between CBs? Who needs these dollars and why? Or is it the other way around?
Is John McCain going to have a heart attack before the election?
YouTube -
"Where is "blood in the streets"?"
Somewhere in the vicinity of DJIA 7,500
"maria for personal reasons"
"Rebecca Jarvis"
Ivy Zelman. Enough said.
the dr munch is on the case..
S&P aint touched the 1050 just yet.
keep faxing and emailing and calling the poiticos...we gotta get more donwside action going.
The FEAR ISNT WORKING, DEFLATION IS WINNING!!!!
I do not doubt he has a lot of information regarding what is "out there" in terms of the derivatives markets. You are certainly right about that. But that did not translate into the $700 billion, that is all I am saying. He did not set that as an upper limit or anything. He was not trying to get model-specific about what was needed, because he thinks it is all a confidence game.
Hm, Asia seems to be taking this relatively well, all things considered.
Any unusual action in Asian Markets ? Any liquidation/BK etc ?
5% down is not a big deal
anyone see anything catastrophical ?
Gumbo: The way I see it is like an analogy....moving water does not freeze
Anyone watching Newt bash Paulson. Just said he should resign tomorrow or be fired.
Is it just me, or is he making sense to others?
"...because he thinks it is all a confidence game.
OMG you mean its not.
Maybe it is in Paulson's circles. I don't think he really understands the problem
Whatever you do, PLEASE don't switch the blog comments to Scoop... a horrible blogging system that marginalizes interesting discussion and creates a mob mentality. See "Kos, Daily."
COMRADES!
Here's some sanity
The stock market is only down 2.2% in the last 10 days. On Sept 18 it was at 10,609. Today it was 10,369.
"It's not the prime reason to do a deal, sure, but we need to think of our friends."
You need to balance the harm of inaction versus the harm of action.
The problem is that the lawless 700 billion pound turd has smashed one pan of the scale so hard down that it is impacted. The bill is irredeemably bad.
So the stock market falls to 8000. It was at about 10000 when Bush took over. Does anyone think that more than 80% of the original value is left?
Ugh, I'm pretty much addicted to the comments here at CR, but the relentless misogynistic objectification of the female talking heads is getting SERIOUSLY OLD, not to mention boring. Please, please self check?
The stock market is only down 2.2% in the last 10 days. On Sept 18 it was at 10,609. Today it was 10,369.
Not but but about a year ago it was at 14,000
Plantagenet
When Bush took over, the DOW was at 10,587.
Nolaguy writes:
Anyone watching Newt bash Paulson. Just said he should resign tomorrow or be fired.
Is it just me, or is he making sense to others?
Nolaguy | 09.29.08 - 10:38 pm | #
No. Paulson will be checking out in a few weeks anyway - after say Oct 15 he'll go into the victory formation & run out the clock. Its the next gang that have the problems then - as it should be.
The non-end-of-the-world reminds me of a line from the old Danny DeVito movie Ruthless People. Where he reminisced about his (hated) wife who he wanted to kill, almost dying, "...and then... she STABILIZED!"
Why the big currency swaps between CBs? Who needs these dollars and why?
Every freaking institution or corporation that must roll over their CP every quarter, which incidentally begins on Wed.
ella, the DJIA was bottomed at 7700 in 2003.
"The stock market is only down 2.2% in the last 10 days."
That's right! And, for you dollar-cost averagers out there, it's up over ten times in the last thirty-nine years!
So, Rejoice!
When Bush took over, the DOW was at 10,587.
Now that is management!
In Fahrenheit 451 there was a substory involving Linda, the firemans wife.
Truffaut with the artists precognition nails the role the TV would have in our lives.
Here we have a thread on a serious financial blog on a most dangerous day.
Yet for many the only thing that they can discusss is TV stars and TV characters. Like with Linda that has become the real world and the outside event disappears. Only the remarks of their favorite TV personality remain, or if they are intellectuals, they compare what two of these personalities have said.
This is America today. The pastor of the chapel on the hill has been replaced with a 52" LCD screen with a televangelist leading us to Jesus
Did the SEC extend the short selling ban???
That's right! And, for you dollar-cost averagers out there, it's up over ten times in the last thirty-nine years!
Yeah, and so you banksters had to go out and bag it, didn't you?
"...the relentless misogynistic objectification of the female talking heads is getting SERIOUSLY OLD, not to mention boring."
I agree.
Conjure says, "Me, too."
plschwartz,
you've got that all wrong there. we've been watching this for years. today is merely day 1549 for some on the end of the world watch.
like i said before, there is nothing left to discuss at this point.
we watch
with friends and popcor
rowen:
Every freaking institution or corporation that must roll over their CP every quarter, which incidentally begins on Wed.
Yeah, it's true. The paper market's gonna implode, and no congressional action til Thursday.
Guess that would have been a better target for guarantees / waivers. Spending time crafting better policy would have done better than screaming DRILL HERE DRILL NOW and trying to steamroller it til they stroked out. Something to consider during the next crisis.
re: comments.
One person's information is another person's troll.
We can make better decisions by having good information.
Electronic democracy is neither easy nor clean.
Keep comments the way they are; the only regulars are the ones that keep coming back.
japan may have an economy that is tipping into no growth but their banks are sumo wrestler sized and they are not really good at the kind of panic that needs pure American self interest to drive it.
Australia well it is spring and there are only about three banks in the entire country.
I guess hk is being supported as is china.
Euro reaction might be more interesting.. Do they catch up or take the lead downwards?
Bond Girl writes:
I do not doubt he has a lot of information regarding what is "out there" in terms of the derivatives markets. You are certainly right about that. But that did not translate into the $700 billion, that is all I am saying. He did not set that as an upper limit or anything. He was not trying to get model-specific about what was needed, because he thinks it is all a confidence game.
Bond Girl | 09.29.08 - 10:36 pm | #
I think they were planning to buy out the defaulted ABS all along, they just didn't know how much they would have to buy. Whether the 700B is just a down payment, I can't say. I actually hope that is all they need. Maybe as I have suggested before, that is what they need to bail out just ONE entity that is "too big to fail".
mp,
i'm just saying that this is eradict bear stock markets. Add in the gov't and also no one knows how much this paper is worse, and it gets more chaotic.
As my username implies, personally i've been mostly cash--with a few fun rides on SKF--due to reading all y'all on this blog for the past year and change.
I just don't want something dumb to be passed because of panic. It's disaster capitalism.
I posted this earlier in the day, but everyone burning the midnight oil....
BEN and HANK - Ben Bernanke and Henry Paulson Horned Masks - BENandHANK.com
Well, I could already be outed...
but it would limit posting to the home computer.
Nothing I wouldn't say in person.
Would I like it in the paper?
Well, not the juvenile stuff, lol.
As for the rest, well if anybody had bothered to ask me about this crisis last year they would have had the same responses.
Someday this war's gonna end...
mp says "So, Rejoice!"
Yes, while we can. TARP II = TARP I + judicial bankruptcy resets.
TIM writes:
Did the SEC extend the short selling ban???
TIM | 09.29.08 - 10:45 pm | #
**** not known yet
Capital's Available, But It Will Cost You...
The window for selling common stock could be largely dependent on the SEC's decision on whether to extend the short-selling ban (set to expire Thursday) and legislative efforts to bail out the financial industry, observers say.
When will these central banks see this is systemic and call for a world bank holiday to sort out the solvent and insolvent banks ...
Dude:
What is with all of the bank holiday stuff? You work for one and haven't been able to get a day off?
Yeah, I want to see them nationalized too, but...
Statement by Howard Coble, 6th Distric N.C - my old howtown. The man is probably in his 80s now but he's still sharp as a tack:
"This was a bad deal from the beginning, and while improvements were made over a weekend of negotiating, the people of the Sixth District let me know in no uncertain terms that they were in no mood to bail out those who made some horrible financial decisions. Now that this bill has been defeated, we have to go back to the drawing board to see where
Congress can assist in the recovery of the financial, credit and housing markets. I was never completely convinced that this rush-to-judgment was the right approach.
The bill had too many unanswered questions to convince me to support the measure. There is no accurate estimate of the total amount of troubled assets and as a result, there is no guarantee that $700 billion will even secure our financial markets. Furthermore, the government purchasing toxic assets with taxpayer dollars makes no sense.
Taxpayers should not be forced to bail out Wall Street executives and other individuals who have enjoyed lucrative benefits by exploiting our financial services industry. Particularly those who have contributed to the sub-prime mortgage
crisis. To make matters worse, this bill did not prevent golden parachutes; it only prevented future golden parachutes. These executives must be held accountable and regardless of when their crisis occurred or the amount of government assistance, they should be prohibited from receiving any financial rewards. The appropriate role of the government is to protect the taxpayers and their investments, not subsidizing a market or sector of our economy.
Unfortunately, this bill did nothing to prohibit the activities that have led so many financial institutions into this current fiscal crisis.
Most of the people who behave inappropriately go away when they are no longer being humored.
the relentless misogynistic objectification of the female talking heads is getting SERIOUSLY OLD, not to mention boring. Please, please self check?
Just my opinion as someone who doesn't generally do it:
Being female does not entitle you to any special deal in life. Maria Bartromo sells stocks to rubes with her tits. It's like a champagne girl without the good parts.
Maybe I just ignore offensive sexual innuendo. Overall, she's a shill for evil men and deserves no more respect than any other mouthpiece of Babylon.
Glad someone else is favoring nationalizing rather than just giving our money to stockholders/debtholders.
THE BUSH ECONOMY
Breaking News and Opinion on The Huffington Post
...LEADERLESS...
Stocks Lost $1.2 Trillion... $500 Billion More Than Bailout... Global Markets Brace As Asia Gets Hammered...
GOP Senator Gregg Sunday: "If We Don't Pass It, We Shouldn't Be A Congress"... GOP Blames Pelosi For "A Partisan Speech"... Dem Congressman Frank: "Well If That Stopped People From Voting, Then Shame On Them"... White House: Bush "Very Disappointed"... Andrew Sullivan: "The GOP Killed It"... New Republic: 'Very, Very Bad News For McCain'... Marc Ambinder: "If McCain Wanted Credit For Passage, Should He Share Some Of The Blame For Its Defeat?"...Time's Klein: McCain's 'Puerile Histrionics' Only Hurt Bailout...
When Bush took over, the DOW was at 10,587.
Now that is management!
ella
~~~~
consistency ...
@And you know how many people in Texas, Arkansas, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia have big pools of shale natural gas sitting right under their houses.
Yeah, in NY too, Rich. Did you see the article in nymag about the natural gas sitting under the Catskills? Say goodbye to the pristine landscape and hello to poison run-off and scalped mountain tops.
Apropos of nothing in particular, I extend this gem from James Kunstler of Clusterf**kNation:
It's odd to watch the talking heads on CNBC this morning, parsing endlessly over the latest minutiae of the latest deal for CitiGroup to land on Wachovia like a giant amoeba and begin the gruesome process of digesting its innards. The TV heads are just like the medieval monks trying to explicate the labanotation of x-number of angels dancing on the head of the pin. Religion really is the only metaphor left to discuss the epochal disaster underway right now, because God alone knows where this will take us.
The man can turn a phrase, can't he?
Dude:
What is with all of the bank holiday stuff? You work for one and haven't been able to get a day off?
Yeah, I want to see them nationalized too, but...
homedad43 | Homepage | 09.29.08 - 10:50 pm | #
As for bank holiday... How many years did it take to get answers on the books at Freddy & Fannie? And then try to do that on a worldwide basis w/ banks FAR larger with even worse paper???
If we get a 'bank holiday' its gonna last a decade... I don't think there will be enough squirrels.
homedad43
What is with all of the bank holiday stuff? You work for one and haven't been able to get a day off?
That's me!
Actually, I wouldn't mind if my bank would just fire me, I am feeling ashamed working for them. More so by the day.
mmckinl, bingo!
For what it's worth, I am only down on one investment I've made all year.
That investment is double short the Dow Jones Real Estate Index.
Who would believe that we could be this deep into the worst U.S. real estate crisis in generations, yet investors could be down double short U.S. real estate?
Okay, I know there's some structural problems with the volatility and neg. dividend in SRS. And I'll never buy SRS again for holding periods more than a few months.
But I don't think the structural problems negate the basic idea. I think speculators have been driving SRS down more than should be.
So, I've been loading up on SRS. I'm looking for 30% upside from here, to about 100-110. And I'm profitable again and out.
On TWM, I'm in all the way down.
Good night everyone.
I too object against the misogynistic objectification of the female talking heads. Can they talk from elsewhere?
Byzantine_Ruins
never liked Maria ... high maintenance , high strung ...
Blood in the streets to me means at what level the SPX at a reasonable PE is the SPX priced to give me a good 5 yr CAGR.
here is how i frame it, you can use your PE estimate.
Peak SPX EPS trailing 4 Q's was $85 in 2Q07. Financials were $39 of that EPS. i'll assume a bad case scenario and estimate that 65% of financials' EPS goes away for good. so adjusted peak SPX EPS was $60.
From 100+ yrs of data we know SPX EPS grows 6% long term. so 5 yrs from now SPX EPS could likely be $80. Give it a 14x PE. That mean you have SPX at 1,120. Almost a 0% return from today's close of @ 1,100. sucky.
But....if the SPX got to 850, that's about an 8% 5 yr CAGR for total return (assume 2% div yld).
ouch,....given that i don't want to pay more than 14x LTM EPS, I need to see SPX 850 (down another 23%) just to set up an expected 8% 5 yr CAGR.
That's my blood level
Nice job! I couldn't post because i was at work.
F'k those who try to hold the country hostage.
AAARGhhh.
Please check out the Asia action. It's the patriotic bald eagle in the mine.
M
bond girl
I just listened to the entire Pelosi tirade again.
It's almost as if it was designed to batter
Republicans into reptilian Nay votes.
She is a sad excuse for a Representative.
A small-minded prima donna.
.
Anybody know if a Bank Holiday would include Credit Unions?
rich writes:
On TWM, I'm in all the way down.
I'm selling half of my remaining DXD and SDS I bought two weeks/one month ago; but I'm having difficulty parting with TWM I bought @ $61.00 (currently trading @ $79.00).
I think TWM is a double in under a year. But I'm not sure I could hold onto it through Intermediate Term bottoms in the SPX. I hate when markets move this fast in either direction.
ella writes:
mmckinl, bingo!
bush is going to begin bingo for federal revenue ?
"relentless misogynistic objectification of the female talking heads"
Do you know who Ivy Zelman is? Far from a misogunistic objectification...do a google search for "Ivy Zelman" and "Mortgage Liquidity du jour: Underestimated No More"...page 47 of this Opus is one of the reasons we knew this tragic house of cards was going to come down back in early 2007. Until it was released, we had only anecdotal avidence of what was "coming down the pike".
Misogynistic indeed.
Say goodbye to the pristine landscape and hello to poison run-off and scalped mountain tops.
Suggest development of time travel technology, putting policies in place 80 years ago to urge responsible exploitation of liquid petroleum supplies whose ecological devastation will be pleasantly removed from your sight.
If you have a vehicle, but are not willing to bear the burden of its energy source, you drive on the back of another.
edd browne writes:
I just listened to the entire Pelosi tirade again.
It's almost as if it was designed to batter
Republicans into reptilian Nay votes.
She is a sad excuse for a Representative.
A small-minded prima donna.
.
edd browne | 09.29.08 - 11:00 pm | #
Intentional? 'Yes. Stupid? No.
edd browne" She is a sad excuse for a Representative.
A small-minded prima donna."
Whatever.
-wtf
the people cry out for answers.
the USA is bailing out Industrial and Commerce Bank of China...
Citi may balk on the WB deal....
watch it play out in real time.
"bush is going to begin bingo for federal revenue ?" No he is going to drill for oil again. If at first you don't succeed
misogynistic objectification,
That happens with rap music as well...
Anonymouse,
Now that the thread is sidetracked into trading trading tips, please I need advice:
October MS 20 puts. I've got them. When to sell?
Shall fire Paulson. America is becoming Banana Republic. Everyone say meltdown but i only see healthy crash. Life still goes on. Not that serious. Vote aganist those senators in favour of the $700 Billion Bailout soon. Any congressmen or senators in favour of the bailout shall be voted out of congress. The Paulson plan is a Bailout for the Wall Street gamblers. Who say working Wall Street you can't go broke. This is part of life. If you want something to be done, The Professor ideas are not bad. It is better than rescue the wall street toxic debts that taxpayers have to pay in the ends. The properties supply and demand is out of whack. Who can make profit out of it? Paulson needs to be fired,he think he is still Goldman Sach CEO everyone will listen to him, his 3 pages plan stated that he is above the LAW? This is worst than the communists. May as well call him the Dictator of Wall Street if that what he wants.
I stopped at WalMart to pick up a few medicines, some bags of rice. Basically rounding out my supplies.
The young girl at checkout, with nonchalant aplomb, said, "Stocking up, eh? Yeah, me, too."
Whoa! Cat's outa the bag?
Anonymous writes:
misogynistic objectification,
That happens with rap music as well...
Anonymous | 09.29.08 - 11:03 pm | #
Would make a pretty sweet 'blog handle' too...
ella writes:
"bush is going to begin bingo for federal revenue ?" No he is going to drill for oil again. If at first you don't succeed..
~~~~~~~~
Sarah Palin has plenty of oil ... and gas too !
McCain now has a unique opportunity to diffrentiate himself from both Bush and from Obama while promotes republican ideas that will gain wide support:
Create a real change in the financial industry.
Now is the time to restore confidence into the system - not by bailing out Wall Street but by focusing on full disclosure, real transparency on banks balance sheet, regulating derivatives and reducing the insane leverage banks (and shadow banks) were allowed to take.
The senator can provide leadership in a place were Paulson/Bush/Obama/Pelosi/Frank/Dodd are all wrong:
The solution is simple, it is elegant, and it will work.
1.\tForce all off-balance sheet "assets" back onto the balance sheet, and force the valuation models and identification of individual assets out of Level 3 and into 10Qs and 10Ks.
2.\tForce all OTC derivatives onto a regulated exchange similar to that used by listed options in the equity markets. This permanently defuses the derivatives time bomb. Give market participants 90 days; any that are not listed in 90 days are declared void; let the participants sue each other if they can't prove capital adequacy.
3.\tForce leverage by all institutions to no more than 12:1. The SEC intentionally dropped broker/dealer leverage limits in 2004; prior to that date 12:1 was the limit. Every firm that has failed had double or more the leverage of that former 12:1 limit. Enact this with a six month time limit and require 1/6th of the excess taken down monthly.
4.\tSwap bank debt-for-equity: This will reduce debt on banks balance sheets. Equity holders will be diluted which is the right thing to do since some banks are nearly bankrupt (insolvent not just illiquid
5.\tNo government money will go toward buying "distressed assets" that job will be left to the market place to perform price discovery. It is up to the free market to set prices and trade those "assets" (if they are assets at all) not the government job to buy them.
6.\tIn cases where government money is used it is used for one thing only: Buying equity stake in companies. If the government/taxpayer provides funds into the system they get the complete ownership and future stake in the success.
7.\tRestoration of confidence will also require that many in the financial industry who for years made profits worth billions in bonuses and stock options while bankrupting the very institutions they were robbing will be made to return some of this money to the US treasury.
never liked Maria ... high maintenance , high strung ...
Did you date her? I couldn't recognize her out of a lineup to be honest. I see CNBC when I'm trapped in an airport with it or eating lunch someplace where it's on. I know her strictly as a news figure.
Last thing I watched regularly was animaniacs nigh unto 20 years ago, a college GF and I would get high and watch it after class and before sex.
Karl Denninger says the real news was here:
"Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve will pump an additional $630 billion into the global financial system, flooding banks with cash to alleviate the worst banking crisis since the Great Depression. . ."
"Now let's think about this folks. The Fed threw $630 billion into the market before the vote, and yet the S&P 500 was down 40 handles anyway, and in fact tanked after the vote.
"Note carefully--Paulson's plan was $700 billion, and Bernanke spends $630 billion--almost the entire amount proposed--and failed to fix the problem. . . We were about to piss $700 billion into a tornado and lose it forever."
Peter Schiff in 2006: great fun.
YouTube - Peter Schiff - (Former Ron Paul Economic Advisor) Versus Art Laffer (Former Ronald McReagan Economic Advisor) - August 28, 2006 - Peter Schiff [Pimp]
Hey, I just woke up and was having the greatest dream...
I dreamt that the House didn't pass the Bailout Bill because a bunch of crazy bloggers were calling their congressmen...
I think I'll go back to sleep, maybe I'll win the lottery next time...
The young girl at checkout, with nonchalant aplomb, said, "Stocking up, eh? Yeah, me, too."
Whoa! Cat's outa the bag?
unirealist
~~~~~~~~~~~~
grocery checkout clerks and hairdressers know the score ...
Pretty good analysis, craig.
What I think you're missing is the impact of higher tax rates and higher interest rates (discount rates) on corporations.
Given the now-likely outcome of Obama, I'd lower the P/E threshold from about 14 to 12. On the basis of discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, this would represent an increase in the discount rate of 1-2% and an increase in effective corporate tax rates of 5-10%.
Doesn't that lower your buy-in target into the low 800s or high 700s?
dryfly writes:
Dude:
What is with all of the bank holiday stuff? You work for one and haven't been able to get a day off?
Yeah, I want to see them nationalized too, but...
homedad43 | Homepage | 09.29.08 - 10:50 pm | #
As for bank holiday... How many years did it take to get answers on the books at Freddy & Fannie? And then try to do that on a worldwide basis w/ banks FAR larger with even worse paper???
If we get a 'bank holiday' its gonna last a decade... I don't think there will be enough squirrels.
dryfly | 09.29.08 - 10:55 pm | #
Excellent point. In 1924 my dad was seven and lived on squirrel stew for a whole year (he was sick and for some reason was the only thing he could keep down). Never personally tasted tree rat and don't really want to.
It would take a brigade of accountants to sort out just one mega-banks trash, this is worldwide and I just wonder which COUNTRY will default first.
ight all
shorting morgan from 20?
I would cover when GS is 115. The Buffett warrant strike price.
you should settle for double the money in this environment.
@cracker: "the USA is bailing out Industrial and Commerce Bank of China"
Could you elaborate on that, please? (BTW, it's ..Commercial Bank) But, please, if you have a link.
Thanks
Plantagenet writes:
October MS 20 puts. I've got them. When to sell?
My advice (much lambasted on here) about trading options is that whenever you get a big % move - get your principal back and only play with the house's money. It's much easier to trade options when it's only your profit fluctuating on the screen.
Personally, I'm enraged because Peggy The Horse has been banned from the pub at the Alexandra Hotel in South Tyneside.
And all because the proprietor bought a new carpet.
What is this world coming to?
I dont do linky...
cuz so many are blinky...
Yeah, in NY too, Rich. Did you see the article in nymag about the natural gas sitting under the Catskills? Say goodbye to the pristine landscape and hello to poison run-off and scalped mountain tops.
Man-moth | 09.29.08 - 10:55 pm | #
FYI - you don't scrape mtn tops for gas - you do that for coal... gas they drill & tap and then run pipe to collect... use a lot of water sometimes but it doesn't have to be 'clean water'... and they have plenty of it up there unlike Wyoming, Colorado, Montana.
Won't work.
When a politician says "reform Wall Street" in this environment, voters hear: "This jerk just wants to pay off some pals on Wall Street."
To get elected, pretend Wall Street doesn't exist until after the election.
Re: registration and lowering the noise level.
Seems to me a lot of the regulars are still here, posting and joking in the midst of the chaos. Great blog CR.
Byzantine_Ruins writes:
never liked Maria ... high maintenance , high strung ...
Did you date her?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Maria doesn't date men , she shops 'em ...
What is this world coming to?
If you wanna bust out with some real gems of Dexia wisdom, oh wise one, I'm all ears, at least til your ellegua eats 'em off.
And you know how many people in Texas, Arkansas, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia have big pools of shale natural gas sitting right under their houses.
We also have the largest reserves of coal in the world.
We're rich enough to think about the environment first, for now.
re:Asian markets. I heard that Japan is intervening to mitigate losses in their market.
"We simply can not allow the government to be able to artificially define prices."
I'm probably completely unqualified to comment here. But whenever I see a comment like the one above I recall how artificially defined prices were the symptoms of a morbid economy and a dysfunctional society.
The stuff in the Catskills is the same shale formations they have in Wyoming, Colorado and Montana. To get to it, in any case, they have have to drill horizonatally and "frag" the shale rock so that it releases little pockets of natural gas. But there's lots of it and it adds up.
The problem is...the shale gas they found in the Barnett in TX and the Fayetteville in Arkansas was pretty plentiful and cheap to lease.
The center of the shale find in the East is in Western PA. It's also pretty established in most of WV and some parts of TX and SW New York State. But the Catskills? That's like buying Google at $600 a share. It's high-priced smoke and mirrors.
Greater fools live in the Catskills.
World not selling off as bad I expected.
There once was a room full of power.
Who decided that bailouts should flower.
When push came to shove.
they put on a glove.
cuz, cramdowns dont get paid by the hour.
U SMart. Shop S Mart.
fedlube is on sale.
Tokyo is getting The Big Wally.
Here's a fairly reliable market signal (happened before Jan, March, July IT bottoms) that I'm watching intently to sell the rest of my S&P + DOW ultrashorts: it's called the TICK index (NYSE). You can see it change live intraday on stockcharts.com under $TICK.
I'm surprised it didn't flash a "bottom/reversal" warning today. I want (preferably days two near each other) a low TICK of minus 1400 or greater. The TICK (I believe) measures selling/buying pressure - like the degree or constancy of it. So if very high and very low TICKs are about pure FEAR and GREED. I'll update on it if I see anything. (Plus it happens real time - its a leading indicator)
Bush to make statement Tuesday on rescue plan
| Reuters
Why is the President going on TV tomorrow before the market opens? WTF?
Everyone on CNN whining that there was a "failure of leadership."
The media acts like this is an absolute no brainer which it obviously isn't.
Why the Bailout need to be passed?
The FED just pumps in 600 Billion into the banking System. The markets is still intact in asia. Dow future is even in the green. Are you american stupid enough to be conned by Dictator Paulson that wants to use his 3 pages bailout plan to control the banking system. He is above the Law in the original plan. Imaging what his brain is thinking. Imaging the COngress is voting for dictatorship not the well-being of the normal american that work hard and save.
Why is the President going on TV tomorrow before the market opens? WTF?
Gone fishing. | 09.29.08 - 11:19 pm | #
Executive order?
"The White House said on Monday that President George W. Bush would make a statement on the financial bailout plan on Tuesday at 7:45 a.m. (1145 GMT)"
What a relief! I thought he was going to turn off the internet.
Why is the President going on TV tomorrow before the market opens? WTF?
Gone fishing. | 09.29.08 - 11:19 pm | #
Announcement of a Presidential Directive Order?
Executive order?
Now how am I going to get to sleep?
Suspension of trading?
Martial law?
It's going to be alright!
Vote against those in favour of the $700 Billion Bailout. Asia markets are still around, no meltdown as Warren Buffett mentions. Taxpayers shall not bailout wall street Gamblers. They say the bill collapse we see meltdown? Where is the meltdown?
"Heh. Cheney and me decided; well I'm
the decider; to abdicate tomorrow.
Were going huntin".
Why is the President going on TV tomorrow before the market opens? WTF?
Didn't he say something about a magic wand a couple of months back?
Here is why something to do with ICBC is potentially significant. There are four legacy State banks in China, and ICBC is the one through which many of the US/PRC ventures goes through, as well as (maybe) most of the Chinese direct investment.
So, if the US is "bailing out" an unfailable State bank (even if they did sell stock a while back), then one has to wonder...
Announce a round-up of bloggers for "interference in the national financial crisis"?
Were going huntin...
Well, the squirrel is mighty good this time of year.
bank holiday?
...the relentless misogynistic objectification of the female talking heads is getting SERIOUSLY OLD, not to mention boring.
Amen.
I am female,Can I still post catty comments about Sarah Palin? If not,Can any of my 3 daughters or almost all of their girl friends or my female friends who detest Sarah post.I see many thinly hidden jabs at Obama.Is that OK?
Bank holiday will never happen.
Suspension of trading?
Martial law?
It's going to be alright!
Ooh, another 45 second nothingburger, or is he going to have to do something stupid 'cuz he runnd out of money to pump through the Fed?
@dby around 9:42:
Those of us who cling to Atlas Shrugged are happily manufacturing as we speak. The Wall Street boys never read it, or at least never got it.
Value for value. Not value for money.
Da-ddy, I want a squirrel
YouTube -
"I welcome comments" ......1st Dude Todd Palin "FUCKIN A"
Byzantine_Ruins writes:
Do you mean that you favor or do not favor moderated and registered comments?
I think registration is a bad idea and will rob the venue of much of its character and all of its charm.
Way too many people post here who shouldn't. It's better when it's the 4chan of the financial world. I know it's the crew of the Crimson Permanent Assurance, that's why I come here.
Byzantine_Ruins
Go ahead - register and watch CR's advertising revenues cliff dive like today's market. Sorry we're not as intellegent and handsome as you and the other "Economists" who post here. Registering is so NYTimes and Republican.
mp writes:
bank holiday?
mp | 09.29.08 - 11:27 pm | #
Or some variant there of? Don't scare me like that mp - you had me having nightmares LAST night.
Could CR just block any post that mentions Bush, Obama, Biden, McCain, or Palin?
(But not Michael Palin.)
Hoyer: The House will be in session on Thursday
Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) just announced that the House will be in session on Thursday, a sign that Democratic leaders are going to work hard to deflect blame for today's debacle over the Wall Street bailout plan.
At this time, the House is scheduled to meet at noon on Thursday," Hoyer said in a statement just released by his office. "However, whether the House will consider legislation regarding the economic crisis has not been determined."
Hoyer added: "We will continue to work around the clock in a bipartisan manner to forge a solution to the serious threat confronting the economic security of millions of American families."
The House adopted an adjournment resolution today that closed the chamber until early January, although the anticipation had been that Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) would call members back to Washington in mid-November, following the elections.
But with the bailout meltdown, and the huge drop in stock prices, Democratic leaders are now signaling they won't leave town until some kind of rescue package is approved by Congress.
OT from rec.humor.funny:
"I used a WaMu ATM today and it asked to borrow $20 till Friday."
dryfly writes: FYI - you don't scrape mtn tops for gas - you do that for coal... gas they drill & tap and then run pipe to collect... use a lot of water sometimes but it doesn't have to be 'clean water'... and they have plenty of it up there unlike Wyoming, Colorado, Montana.
In Ohio, it's even easier, like putting in a well tap... if you find a gas seep, it's usually good for 10 years or so of free power. Odds are pretty good in many areas, but it's not a guarantee, and you gotta pay for the drilling regardless of whether you find the seep or not. That's what stops most people: people hate the chance of getting nothing after spending a few thousand, even with the nice upside.
They aren't giving up.
Bush will announce a new Surge.
No time lines.
Why is the President going on TV tomorrow before the market opens?
He's going to announce that Paulson is Jesus, and that verily, thy bonds shall be redeemed.
mp writes:
Tokyo is getting The Big Wally.
mp | 09.29.08 - 11:17 pm | #
Huh? Don't get that one...
Sounds like something one of my boys would do, i.e. "Force Push" or "Tummy Taser".
Cramer is restyling himself as some sort of UberBear from way back. There are 2000 visitors on CR at midday. I found myself in agreement with both Sebastian and Jas Jain (well, partially) in the same thread.
WTF is going on?!? Did someone slip something in my drink?
If I don't get credit for the Michael Palin bit, that's it, gloves are off.
UB,
Wash your hands after eating squirrel or you may have flu-like symptoms; you also should cook them until well done, versus dipping them in sauce in a raw state!
Also see: The Rich Are Staging a Coup This Morning ...a message from Michael Moore | MichaelMoore.com
Bush will make an announcement.
Timed before New York open.
El Cliffo - KD has some good things wrapped in dogma. He is right about the FED pumping money and the entire thing still dips - its the hedgies liquidating, its Hanky's timing, and it nerves.
I will give KD one great thing he was ahead of all us asking us to send mssgs of protest to the over-lords.
Actually that was good:
And yet, they are screeching about how the end is near! Panic! Recession! The Great Depression! Y2K! Bird flu! Killer bees! We must pass the bailout bill today!! The sky is falling! The sky is falling!
Falling for whom? NOTHING in this "bailout" package will lower the price of the gas you have to put in your car to get to work. NOTHING in this bill will protect you from losing your home. NOTHING in this bill will give you health insurance.
Health insurance? Mike, why are you bringing this up? What's this got to do with the Wall Street collapse?
Welcome to MichaelMoore.com? id=235
From the Michael Moore link:
Let me state this simply: If we had had universal health coverage, this mortgage "crisis" may never have happened.
Bwahahahah.
Ugly <a href="http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_ES.Z08.E&t=f>bearish flag forming on the ES after hours. Ugh. I kinda wanted to see a gap down so I could sell on somewhat reliable "capitulation." If we go up tomorrow without tagging today's lows first it's just another A-B=C-D down to who knows where. Just my take.
Bush will make an announcement.
Or some variant there of? Don't scare me like that mp - you had me having nightmares LAST night.
Maybe he's going to share what Hu told him on the phone.
Now go to bed dryfly.
Anonymous: I'm going to boil them slowly, like my frogs!
Flags ... speaking of flags, ain't we to be flying the flag upside down now??
Yamada Says `Absence of Buyers' Driving Stocks Lower: Audio - Bloomberg.com
Louise Yamada, listen in, learn, ignore at own peril.
Maybe he's going to share what Hu told him on the phone.
Now go to bed dryfly.
Outsider | 09.29.08 - 11:39 pm | #
LOL!!!! I will go to bed in the fetal position with my thumb in my mouth... but after I stop laughing.
God dang it UB, now yah have my moth watering and I have a wet keyboard, shit dude, look here:
Try this Squirrel Jambalaya recipe, or post your own recipe for Squirrel Jambalaya
Squirrel Jambalaya
So remember how everyone warned that chasing out the shorts would impact liquidity in the markets? How we would have ASK only action?
Check out the Bloomberg quote above. The worst case scenario is starting to play out. Without liquidity a very few number of BID's can move the market in extreme ways.....
Aww hell, not another thread gone squirrely, maybe that registration idea has something to it after all.
YouTube - john boehner gets weepy again...wall street bail out bill "mud sandwich" speech
TARP does not get passed until Congress goes one day without someone crying during a speech from the floor.
You heard it here first
Didn't Bush say something about a magic wand a couple of months back?
If he unzips his pants, I'm calling for impeachment.
Be interesting to see the auto numbers and employment numbers for September. Everything seemed to be slow this month.
I just listened to the entire Pelosi tirade again. It's almost as if it was designed to batter Republicans into reptilian Nay votes.
I despise Pelosi, but for once she was speaking the truth. Why she chose such an untimely moment to speak it, I don't know. Maybe she just deeply resented how her party was being put in the position of rescuing the Party That Wrecked America.
What is going on with the NIKKEI? It has been virtually flat for almost an hour now
I know. He'll announce that every American household that calls within fifteen minutes of his broadcast will receive a free box of corn flakes.
But, they must pledge to call their Congressman's office in support of the amended Paulson Plan.
mykillk - they are at lunch.
What is going on with the NIKKEI? It has been virtually flat for almost an hour now
I love this question. It never gets old.
MLM,
Aww hell, not another thread gone squirrely
It's our culture, this is out tribe, WTF is the problem?
I'm a rabbit lover myself.