Isn't tighter credit necessary and expected after a credit bubble? I would like to see someone explain how we should determine the correct degree of tight.
"Banks with excess balances put them to work by lending to other banks that have clientscompanies and individualswho need the funds."
That was the old paradigm.
Now, banks without excess balances get eaten alive.
And companies and individuals whose banks don't have excess balances, go out and find new banks. This forces credit competition at those banks. Companies and individuals who present poor credit risks get no credit.
All of which is a much better paradigm, IMHO.
The banks don't need to lend to each other.
And besides which, the Fed lending to all of them has taken away much of the need for the interbank lending market.
CR writes:
And Lockhart is clearly pessimistic on business spending, layoffs, and especially the slowdown of U.S. trading partners (impacting exports).
You forgot the best part: Fed's LockFART pessimistic on passage of bailout bill!
The cost of "hedging" default risk SHOULD rise. That's really the whole point of this crisis. Up to now banks have been "hedging" default risk with swaps backed by a gang of marginally solvent hedgies, SIVs and similar fly-by-night operations.
There is no reason why regulated banks and insurance companies should be able to pretend they have laid off the risk of default by another regulated institution, when in fact they have simply taken on exposure to a much LESS reliable institution.
All forms of insurance must be regulated, period, and must be sold at a price that reflects the true cost of maintaining meaningful reserves. Otherwise the so-called insurance is just another speculative bet.
"I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth
of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated
Governments in the civilized world--no longer a Government by free opinion, no longer a Government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a Government by the opinion and duress of a small amount of dominant men." Woodrow Wilso
"Otherwise the so-called insurance is just another speculative bet."
Lots of people just now realizing that.
It was always a fantasy that insurance could turn a risky speculation into a sure bet.
Even regulated insurance operations turned out to be beyond dodgy. A bill was just passed and signed in California to prevent health insurance companies from retroactively canceling policies of people who got sick. Weaseling out of payoffs became sufficiently widespread to trigger a political response.
The blocked pipes metaphor is getting old. Every time I hear it, I think about a blocked toilet pipe. How is sitting on it and having the biggest dump in history going to unblock it? Imagine the resulting mess!
The financial plumbing system is out of date and needs to be replaced. The money for nothing and ever-lasting credit paperprestidigitizer has been seen to be the confidence sham that it is.
Get back to the fiscal bottom line of balanced accounting...it's that simple!
Dow almost up 400 points. Hmmh, what happened to "this sucker is going down?"
I was really expecting the market to be rather flat until there was new bailout news.
Basically, the market should be playing dead until they get their free money. If they rebound too much, it's probably not convince too many people that they really need the free money... err... I mean help.
"Note that Lockhart was already pessimistic before September, and for good reasons."
Exactly...the American consumer was fueling his/her buying spree of the past 5 years with cheap credit, instead of stashing some of his/her income for a rainy day, or to saving for big purchases. Instead of saving for a big-ticket item, consumers financed them using ultra cheap and ultra attractive credit. This caused the economy to "boom" for a while (aka Goldilocks economy).
Now that lenders and investors have opened their eyes to the fact that the American consumer got in way over their collective heads, they are pulling credit back. It's the flip side of the lending boom and spending binge.
What the Federal government should try to do is to make sure we don't overshoot too far in the other direction, in other words keep us from getting to "zero credit", or close to it.
However, make no mistake, that in the absence of the crazy credit programs that got us here in the first place, the American consumer will have to retrench, pull back, cut down, and start saving for a house down payment, a car down payment, etc.
And before anyone yells "bring back the old loan programs, we want the Goldilocks economy back", just remember that even Goldilocks had her limits...and that was the reason house prices stabilized and started to come down in the first place.
It's probably incredibly annoying to people who reject "technical analysis" or charting in market forecasting; however, a reliable pattern setting up with today's rise (without having tested yesterday's lows) is an A-B=C-D down inside the much larger A-B=C-D down.
Today's market retracement is merely the "C point" of this move. The light volume and bearish flag are two key tells. Once can set high probability prices where the market reverses by looking at Fib. levels and high volume 10-minute, 30-minute, 60-minute bars. Don't have time to go into that, but you get the idea. Bear rally yadda yadda
I think he glosses over the larger picture by limiting his view of the source of our credit crunch as home loans that aren't being repaid. It seems to me that the credit bubble allowed for excessive speculation in both residential and commercial real estate, auto production, business expansion for a variety of national and international corporations, and the entire leveraged buyout industry, to name but a few of the players.
With the rug being pulled out from under the credit market, no matter what happens going forward, we are going to have to generate the money to repay this debt with real production, not speculation and debt roll over.
Can anyone confirm for the little minds like me...doesn't that mean that credit is available, but at a higher prices?
In some contexts that might mean the same as "blocked" (if you are a business living close to the cash flow edge, relying on cheap and abundant short term financing without a plan "B"), but how "blocked" is, well, "blocked".
The $300bn stimulus plan really was a stupid idea. It accomplished nothing and just forestalled many problems or rather dealing with the inevitable problems.
Better to dump $2tn at once than to drop a few hundred bn ever few months. Supposed to be a bazooka, not a six shooter
Also, who was the genius that gave government the idea it could ever avoid a recession? History has only showed them to be delayed, and at significant expense
EvilHenryPaulson writes:
If you are going to be off-topic, please don't be off-topic by spamming the comments with the same comments you spammed all over the last thread
I swear I will write to Congress advocating the initial Paulson plan if you keep it up
I am starting to subscribe to the idea that it a myth that lending to small businesses is tightening.
Banker buddy of mine, managing $250M is corporate and small business loans said that deals which were tough to sigh off on last year, are now getting green lights faster than ever.
This credit freeze excuse is a fear-monger so that the IBs can scare congress into signing this bailout bill to but their marketed to model fantasy paper.
I don't doubt that given enough time, this will impact everyday business. But given enough time, better managed IBs could easily take over the business from the currently insolvent IBs.
If you want to see how morally bankrupt Americas ruling elite, including media pundits and talking heads, just watch CNBC and FAUX Business Knows. Erin Burnet is a whore the way she spins. The moral climate has given rise to what I call "legally' organized gangs.
Gangistan must be eradicated of financial, media and political gangs, including the Fed, before any genuine revival can take place. That is decades away.
It is the morality, Stupid!
(Lack thereof during the past 25 years or so WILL take America down).
By ginning up inflation numbers, unemployment numbers, GDP numbers the government has shot themselves in the foot.
Ben and Paulson are yelling armagedon and according to the government numbers everything is fine. Why should we give those greedy SOBs billions so they can buy more big cars, huge mansions and boats and foreign property.
See when you fool the public into thinking everything is fine "the economy is sound...." then the next breath you yell cratering and emergency action is required by tomorrow, the credibility gap stinks.
Where are the leaders???? It certainly isn't Bush/Paulson. They have as much cred as my pig.
CR writes:
The PCE numbers for August, released yesterday by the BEA, strongly suggest the long anticipated consumer recession has started. September will probably be worse.
And Lockhart is clearly pessimistic on business spending, layoffs, and especially the slowdown of U.S. trading partners (impacting exports).
Re: those cheerin the bailout, I can only quote (from Wikipedia)what On his return to Paris, Edouard Daladier, Prime Minister of France said when he returned from the Munich sellout (je was opposed to it). Daladier, who was expecting a hostile crowd, was acclaimed. He then told his aide, Alexis Léger: "Ah, les cons (the fools) !"»
I'll bet the Fed cuts by 75bp before the end of October. They might do the emergency meeting, followed by the regular Oct28-29 meeting.
They've been running the effective rate at the level for the past few days. The rate will come back up to 2% before the cuts. The PCE report only reinforces my belief -- maybe some analyst or trader is taking conviction in the idea
While their participation in providing credit has grown dramatically, Lockhart said recent financial turmoil has made it clear banks have retained a central role in credit intermediation. Also, they provided back-up liquidity to the conduits that served as intermediaries to the ultimate investors, and they often helped the ultimate investors finance their holdings of the securities.
am in Norfolk VA & just back from shopping at Food Lion-- a huge sorta lower-end supermarket chain on E.coast.
A nice elderly black lady in checkout line telling everyone her "church phone tree" had called her, telling her to call her C-critter today to support the Bailout 2 plan, because if she didn't--"nobody will be able to get their social security checks or paychecks cashed on Friday".
(dunno when SSN checks are mailed, to those without direct deposit, but you can bet there's lotsa very scared elderly folks out there being told they'll not be able to get any money come Friday.)
Get your heads out of "whether" the .7T bailout goes through and focus on what's next. I think that's what CR is trying to get you to do with this thread.
What should Congress do now that the bailout bill has been defeated in the House?
Draft a new rescue plan \t42% \t102559
Let risk-taking financial institutions fail \t58% \t143860
Total Votes: 246419
risk spreads have widened, the cost of hedging against default risk has risen dramatically, and the range of assets accepted as collateral has narrowed.
so the market acting sensibly again - why does the Fed think this is a problem. To ne it looks like an important part of the solution.
My Congressman's response to my thanking him for voting against Bailout 1.0.
Dear my credit is crunchy:
Thank you for contacting me regarding the nation's financial crisis. I appreciate your input.
Earlier this week I voted against the plan to provide up to $700 billion in taxpayer dollars to shore up the nation's ailing financial markets. The bill failed in the House of Representatives by a vote of 205 - 228. Congressional leaders made significant improvements to the Administration's original proposal - including increased oversight, mechanisms to recoup tax dollars over time, and prohibitions against sweetheart deals for irresponsible CEO's. At the end of the day, however, I remain concerned that we are not doing enough to protect Southwest Louisiana taxpayers - while at the same time bailing out Wall Street billionaires. The free market system is built on key principles of risk and reward. Congress should give great pause before nationalizing Wall Street's bad debt on the backs of hard working Americans.
This financial situation is serious and has far reaching implications for the entire U.S. economy. Over the past month, I consulted with a wide array of financial experts - from across the country and Southwest Louisiana. The financial instruments at the root of the problem are complex. It will take months, if not years, to unravel the mess created by some unscrupulous financiers and implement responsible regulations to ensure this type of market meltdown is not repeated.
In the short term, however, we must restore investor confidence in the markets. Right now, credit is essentially freezing-up nationwide - which means Southwest Louisianians will find it increasingly harder to get a car loan, buy a new house, or finance their children's education. Havoc in the markets also puts at risk U.S. pension plans and harms responsible investors. Congress must act quickly and responsibly to restore faith in the U.S. financial system and work to ensure Main Street - not Wall Street - is protected.
Congress will reconvene later this week to continue discussions on legislation to stabilize the economy. I continue to push for alternatives to protect American taxpayers - like increasing FDIC insurance limits. Congress should also look at reforming outdated accounting laws that artificially undervalue good market assets which has contributed to the financial crisis. Finally, we need to take a hard look at reforming the U.S. credit ratings system.
Again, I appreciate your input. While there is no easy fix to the current crisis, I can assure you that I will continue to fight to safeguard taxpayers' funds and protect the savings and livelihoods of all Southwest Louisianians.
Sincerely,
Charles W. Boustany, Jr., M.D.
Member of Congress
Looks like Bailout 2.0 is all but in the bag.
Enjoy our short-lived victory and go pick out your pitchforks.
I missed that yesterday Roubini began meme-ing that MS and GS each need to hurry and find a large foreign financial institution to absorb them, and policy authorities around the world need to coordinate an immediate global 100bps reduction in policy rates to signal they take things, you know, seriously...
"nobody will be able to get their social security checks or paychecks cashed on Friday".
These are the same people who (if they have any spare cash) get sold front load annuities, option arm refis on their paid off houses, etc.
How typical that they are being mobilized to facilitate looting the taxpayer. Sad.
Did this man just tell us globable banking doesn't work? Did this man just tell us if we sent all our jobs to Asia the banking industry couldn't work, Did this man just tell us if we have nothing to export yet import every thing we need the dollars stay in Asia.
In politics nothing happens by accident, you can bet it was planned that way...FDR
For my part, I've called my Congresscritter. Twice.
He still voted for a bailout.
Oh, yes, the broadcast reporting I've seen on ABC and CBS concerning this whole thing has been nothing less than irresponsible. It's pretty obvious the USA's chattering class (with the exception of Robert Krulwich, who did a nice animated piece on what's happening), simply Don't Get It.
Two comments.
First: "A Working Financial Sector Matters to Us All". True. But it matters to different degrees and the issue here is why people to whom it does not matter much should be loaded up to bail out those for whom it seems like the whole universe. The masters of the universe did not pony up for the foreclosed, for the autoworkers... and on and on.
Second: The comment "this will affect Main Street" waved out there as though it is a justification. What is missing is the other half: so will the bailout because Main Street is who will pay. So now we need quantification, not arm-waving. We don't have that.
No goals. No quantities. No specifics. No definitions. No definition of success or failure. No exit strategy.
For $700 billion, a minimum of homework could be done. The fact that there isn't simply points out the fact that this is fundamentally a politically deal.
the NAR sent this campaign out to its members today...
excerpt:
"Dear ,
Main Street Needs Relief Now
Move beyond the debate over who is responsible and move towards a solution that will benefit REALTORS and the consumers we serve.
Please urge your members of Congress to support EESA.
By now you have heard that Congress failed to pass the Emergency Economic Stability Act (EESA). This is a critical time for our nation, and REALTORS everywhere need to call on Congress to enact a recovery plan that will end the economic crisis we are facing.
I have received messages from many of you, wondering why NAR is supporting this unprecedented government investment in financial institutions and the housing market. The truth is that consumers everywhere already are feeling the impact of the credit crisis. Many buyers can no longer find financing they need to buy a home, contracts are being pulled off the table, and sellers are taking their listings down. Without swift and substantial intervention, all REALTORS and the consumers we serve will soon face a market where:
Getting a mortgage, small business, or short-term loan becomes extremely difficult, even for good credit consumers and businesses.
Consumer and business bankruptcies rise significantly, as refinancing options are shut down.
Lines of credit are reduced and interest rates on personal and business credit cards rise, adding to the burden on families.
Consumer and business spending declines, further depressing the economy.
Unemployment increases significantly.
Budget deficits increases noticeably due to declining revenue collection at all levels of government....."
Re the David Brooks column in the NY Times - that what is needed is to shore up home prices.
This shows he fails to understand the problem - shoring up home prices only serves to perpetuate the bubble.
The elephant in the room is that over the last 8 years, home prices soared while average wages remained flat, to only with subprime money could the average wage earner "afford" a home.
So, maybe Brooks understands more - shoring up home prices and perpetuating fooling mortgage lending is needed to forestall the revolution, or to keep Reagan from becoming a dirty name.
You have in the past spoken accurately of lags in the system. I would suggest that if we mapped out the various rises of debt (credit) levels of all the different retail debt instruments:
housing
credit cards
auto loans
personal loans
HELOCs
etc
Then we would quite possibly be able to see the 'script' of the consumer level process of deleveraging and be able to map this script to how and who it would effect in the wholesale markets.
What we've seen recently is an unprecedented level of tight coupling (ahem!) between retail and wholesale where the demise now of the former is the prophecy of latter's demise.
The number of individuals and companies who can present themselves as a good (low) credit risk is so small, as compared to the number of companies and individuals who were able to get credit before the crisis (really pre-mid2007) hit, that there simply will not be enough credit extension to sustain any level of economic growth.
Our only real hope is that China, India and South America - Chile, Brazil - start large scale domestic spending policies and US companies are able to win good sized orders (this will become harder as the US sinks into deflation and the dollar rises in the short to medium term).
As a side note to the inflationists - yes, that will happen but not before the deflation hits. -ve breakeven rates on 2 years is all you need to tell you this.
"...Prior to September, we at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta had a rather downbeat outlook for the second half of 2008 and early 2009. We expectedand continue to expecta very weak second half reflecting contracting consumer spending, weaker business investment, and slower export volume."
Well, Lockhart's and the Atlanta Fed's forecast is already looking dubious.
(I already posted this on a previous thread.)
U.S. Sept. Chicago PMI holds at high level
By Greg Robb
Last update: 9:52 a.m. EDT Sept. 30, 2008
Comments: 12
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Business activity in the Chicago region expanded at a healthy pace in September, according to a survey of corporate purchasing managers released Tuesday. The Chicago purchasing managers index inched lower to 56.7 in September from 57.9 in August but stayed well above the 53.0% expected by analysts. Readings above 50 indicate overall business expansion. The Chicago PMI has rebounded after hitting a low of 40.5% in February. The Chicago PMI is considered a leading indicator to the national Institute for Supply Management manufacturers' survey to be released on Wednesday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expect the ISM factory index to slip to 49.6% from 49.9%.
As has been pointed here in many posts (but somewhat lacks in the CR post), we really have to thank the FED in particular, but also the FDIC and the Treasury for successfully limiting the banking liquidity crisis to the banking industry / Wall street. Main street has not been overly touched by the credit crunch. This is fortunately 100% different than the reaction to the 1929 downturn (that is actually what Jas and the likes want - crazy and inhumane). So far, so good. Now Congress needs to get their act together as well. Then we'll still have some bumpy years ahead, but without it getting out of hand.
O-Joe
And a good explanation of how the Senate might act 'first' even though the Constitution requires that all tax legislation originate in the House:
"An alternate route, described by two aides as a "nuclear" option, is for the Senate to pass a measure first, then adjourn and force the House to accept the Senate measure. Such a move would need to be attached to an innocuous tax bill already pending before the Senate in order to circumvent a constitutional mandate that all tax writing must originate in the House. "We always keep tax bills available for such situations," said Jim Manley, a senior adviser to Senate majority leader Harry Reid. "But I don't see that happening as of right now."
House Members Get Flooded With Calls Supporting Rescue Measure, Aide Says
I fully expected it.
I firmly believe that each and every country deserves what it gets. That's why, for example, I don't blame Bush for the last 8 years, I blame the american public.
If sheeple want to get eaten, who can save them?
On CNBC this morning it was said the 99 to 1 numbers against the bailout was just a few fanatics who were calling/faxing in. They said the polls were showing 1/3 for, 1/3 against and 1/3 uncertain. How's that for spin.
Looks like bernanke needs to go study bernanke papers and start looking in the mirro, where truth will set him free and peace will settle on Earth and hobo pockets will be filled with gold:
In any measure of reserve adequacy, gross reserves need to be carefully measured in line with the internationally accepted definition. To reflect available liquidity, it is reasonable in the indicators to augment gross reserves with contingent lines of credit that are truly usable, and to subtract from them obligations of the monetary authorities that can materialize immediately, such as derivatives subject to margin calls.
Corporate nonpayment arises either from corporate insolvency or illiquidity, and the degree of leverage is an important variable influencing the risk of both. Companies that are highly leveraged are more vulnerable to declining values of their assets (i.e., balance sheet effects), as their debt to collateral ratios are higher; and an increase in the domestic currency cost of servicing of debt relative to the value of collateral can trigger financing problems, which in turn can further reduce the value of collateral if widespread. Leveraged companies are also more vulnerable to cutoffs in financing as cash outflows (for debt service) are larger. The same applies to corporations with a high share of short-term debt. Profits and cash flow of such companies are also more sensitive to changes in interest rates (Bernanke and Gertler, Inside the Black Box: the Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1995).
OT, Countrywide finally, releases foreclosure data after 1 month wait. This is why financials are suspect. We can't get good numbers on foreclosures and the NAR spins sales to the positive.
No recession here. GDP was up in the 2nd quarter, so the soonest we could possibly have a OFFICIAL recession is in January 2009 if the 3rd and 4th quarter GDPs are both down.
@O-Joe Optimistic-Joe writes:
As has been pointed here in many posts (but somewhat lacks in the CR post), we really have to thank the FED in particular, but also the FDIC and the Treasury for successfully limiting the banking liquidity crisis to the banking industry / Wall street. Main street has not been overly touched by the credit crunch. This is fortunately 100% different than the reaction to the 1929 downturn (that is actually what Jas and the likes want - crazy and inhumane). So far, so good. Now Congress needs to get their act together as well. Then we'll still have some bumpy years ahead, but without it getting out of hand.
O-Joe
Thanks a yahoo. If they had done their job in the first place we wouldn't be where they are today. We should abolish the FED, depose Paulson, and replace the incompetent management at the FDIC.
Some hedge fund managers are said to be invoking clauses in contracts to prevent investors getting their money out, fearful that even a trickle of redemptions could turn into a stampede. And in the febrile atmosphere that pervades financial centres today, they may be right. The heyday of hedge funds - whose astronomical pay packets have attracted the brightest graduates as well as former high-flying investment bankers - look to be past. The capital-starved banks are turning off the borrowing tap and making margin calls, which force leveraged funds to provide extra collateral as security in a falling and uncertain market.
But smaller funds have been falling like ninepins. Researchers say 243 have been liquidated in the first half of 2008, the highest number in any six-month period. Only one in 10 did well enough to levy a performance fee during the same timespan.
He predicted that average holding periods for investments (before they are sold on or floated) would double to eight years, as short-termism gave way to a more measured approach.
We can take it as a given that the whole financial landscape will be dramatically changed because the debt boom of the past 16 years is over. With its demise, we will see the contraction of a huge industry that grew up in its wake, one that spawned a heady cocktail of debt-related investment opportunities and their derivatives, with sub-prime mortgage backed securities lighting the fuse that led to the current crisis.
As Freud says: 'Debts that in more staid times would be regarded as too hot to handle became the norm, offering generous returns, and tradeable in a debt markets that grew massively in size, scope and complexity.'
MisesRules writes:
we would quite possibly be able to see the 'script' of the consumer level process of deleveraging and be able to map this script to how and who it would effect in the wholesale markets.
Cr, I second the suggestion that it would be productive to examine debt limits. Whether viewed a the inevitable result of deleverging or the "impending impact { or aftermath } of the credit crunch" it seems clear that the consumer demand has to fall. It make good sense to think it through.
rps writes:
"I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth
of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated
Governments in the civilized world--no longer a Government by free opinion, no longer a Government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a Government by the opinion and duress of a small amount of dominant men." Woodrow Wilson
Wilson then continued,
"That being said, I had a great f-ing time. Who's up for some dancing girls?"
It seems truly astounding that the extent of the exposure to the "boomless pit" component of this deal, the so-called credit default swaps, has not been quantified. These are essentially futures contracts with margin calls. The exposure to them has already taken down major investment houses. The extent of these default insurance contracts is often mentioned in the media as being in the 50 trillion [with a "t"] range. If there is a significant amount of this exposure, then is there any reason that the U.S. Government could not become indebted for this amount or be forced to itself default on these mammoth commitments. I have seen nothing in the media to indicate that these instruments are not in the deal. I know it seems incredible, but what if Congress is unwittingly about to vote yes on something that could creat a USG default situation?
Joe G., Santa Cruz, CA
House Members Get Flooded With Calls Supporting Rescue Measure, Aide Says
I posted (upthread) a portion of the NAR letter that went out to the membership today. It contains a link that allows you to automatically send a letter of support to your congress people (mine, if sent, would automatically go to Schiff, Feinstein and Boxer.) Schiff, btw, voted against it.
Currently there are over 800,000 members of NAR, all of whom would have received this easy to execute email.
This money ($700B) will not change the course of this economic melt down and will probably prolong the deep recession we are heading into.
A deep recession is a much needed painful "cure" to our disease of extreme dept that will happen in order to restore balance. The best way to do that is by NOT having the government meddle with the free market. Let the market work this mess out.
Anyone against the bailout or against the inflationary policies that have redistributed wealth to the rich in general, must act now.
I just heard Obama say there will be plenty of time to punish later. That's not true (and up until now I was an ardent Obama supporter).
We are in a unique position: the banks need us, and our politicians are up for re-election. The stars might never line up like this again. If we can't get some reasonalbe, fair legislation and reforms passed now, it's not going to happen in the future.
I hope Krugman will do a 3rd "People I gree with"
Yal | 09.30.08 - 3:04 pm | #
I think I'm going to hide in my basement, the end must be near - I pretty much agree with Karl too. I might quibble a bit over how much it would cost (I think there is more debt there but let's see). Way better than Paulson's Plan anyway.
Basically what Karl's proposing is what FDR did via RFC - and it worked then, would work now.
"Aides to Representative Jim Moran of VA think the bill is required to save 401k plans."
By giving more money to the same den of snakes that CONed these people into buying into this is in search of the greater fool Ponzie scheme. Doesn't fly with me.
Thanks a yahoo. If they had done their job in the first place we wouldn't be where they are today. We should abolish the FED, depose Paulson, and replace the incompetent management at the FDIC.
Gavshire Hathaway
I think this is a rather ignorant view. There were as many manias and panics before the FED was established. The only difference was that there was almost no mitigating of the panic effects until past the Grest Depression, causing repeated extreme hardship for the American people. If any of the then-living could talk to you, they would praise above institutions and what they are doing now, including the bail-out. If you want to go back to the hardship of the past, go ahead. But don't require me to go there, too.
O-Joe
We are in a unique position: the banks need us, and our politicians are up for re-election. The stars might never line up like this again. If we can't get some reasonalbe, fair legislation and reforms passed now, it's not going to happen in the future.
~~~~~~~~~
We are in the unique position of giving $700 Billion to Wall Street Banksters. This all about bailing out te politically connected Wall Street Banks Period !
Bullshit! If some people in 401ks had retarded over-leveraged bets on exchange traded shit, then, yes, the bailout will save them, but the next question to ask, is why the other people that were in safer investments, who wanted to avoid risk, should end up paying off the bets of all the retards?
BTW - I called my senators this AM (~9AM Eastern Time)... got right into their clerks. Had a nice chat and asked that they kill it. No hysteria, no screaming, no threats just stern business voice - kill it... its bad politics & even worse policy.
Told them who I was, where I lived (in state for 30 years) and that I vote every election. I chatted ~3 minutes with each. One of my senators is in a close race for reelection - I told them I had voted for him before and voted against him before - its always a toss up - this vote matters.
I also told them I fully understand the issue and there are choices besides this bill - ones that are FAR better for tax payers and Main Street. Research it. If you don't understand the issue - delay.
Just suggesting - you might get farther with persuasion than w/ screaming & yelling.
Yesterday The Leave No Banker Behind Program was defeated.
This morning the World ended in fire
and ice.
Human beings are now only a memory.
We should have given them the money.
Look at how drastically the effective funds rate has risen and fallen compared to the target rate. Can anyone explain the sudden change from over the target rate to far below it? http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/fredgraph?&chart_type=line&graph_id=0&category_id=&recession_bars=On&width=1000&height=600&bgcolor=%2399FF99&txtcolor=%23000000&preserve_ratio=true&&s_1=1&s[1][id]=DFF&s[1][transformation]=lin&s[1][scale]=Left&
I've talked to several people who rely on commercial credit - they have NO problem getting loans - the only problem is getting them at the insanely low rates they were getting a couple years back.
I see no reason not to let this play out naturally.
This Congress must step up to its constitutional responsibilities to craft that right deal, not an insider trade, says Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) of Ohio, who opposes $700 billion in government purchases of troubled assets on the books of US and foreign financial institutions.
The financial crisis in the 1980s was resolved in a much more disciplined and rigorous way than taxpayers printing money for Wall Street, she adds, referring to actions by the FDIC to resolve thousands of problem situations with no cash changing hands.
Meanwhile, Republicans face a tougher task of bringing on board conservatives convinced that the Paulson plan is a step toward socialism. Im resolute in my opposition, said Rep. Darrell Issa (R) of California. Today we are ending the Reagan era if we vote for this, and we cant come back and fix it next year.
Unless the market drops substantially, the Republicans arent going to get scared enough to do the right thing. At this point, theyre listening to talk radio and not listening to the president, said Rep. James Moran (D) of Virginia, after the vote.
Maria Bartiromo losing her shit on Hardball about the bailout not happening. She's a shill for Paulson and Bernanke. I can't believe I used to love her.
House Members Get Flooded With Calls Supporting Rescue Measure, Aide Says
I'd bet there's a large basement office somewhere on WS or in New Jersey, filled with temp workers busy making calls to congress and posting apocalyptic messages on various key blog forums about the dire consequences of not passing the bailout. Maybe they've been promised a cut of the take.
My reps have a blog for entries on their websites and not one was positive. So...I'd say the new numbers are all spin..but the NAR is about as DUMB a you can get. They may SHARE a brain?
The spin on the media channels is unbelievable. I just need to turn the TV off! Listening to these losers can only lose you money.
Reps check names, addresses, and voting logs. They know who is important and who isn't as far as their jobs go. Got Money?
No doubt some small brains are scared,..I mean who wouldn't if you watched TV. Pass it or your fucked was the message I got? Anybody? CNBC you are PATHETIC DICK SUCKERS!
this credit market scare talk is just that: scare talk.
I hope the banking committee invest at least a LITTLE of their time verifying the effects of this crunch on their constituents. After all, didn't they get fooled by the same scare talk over WMD only to find evidence tissue thin?
If they look hard they will find that the effects of the "lockup in the arteries" are really just the withdrawal of easy credit to risky situations and to stop this would be like unclogging arteries that feed a cancer.
and yeah CNBC editors should be arrested for crimes against the state. Suddenly indexes and company report and economic statistics don't matter, it is all about an interbank market that none of them even understand or track? yeah right. They probably first said the word TED this year.
They are being told behind the scenes which bogey man to inflate and the guests are complicit as it suits their books.
Attempting to contact my House Rep., the following message appeared after completing the obligatory zip code + 4 info: The House of Representatives is currently experiencing an extraordinarily high amount of email traffic. The Write Your Representative function is therefore intermittently available. While we realize communicating to your Members of Congress is critical, we suggest attempting to do so at a later time, when demand is not so high. System engineers are working to resolve this issue and we appreciate your patience.
Perhaps the same System engineers can work on a practical and just (formerly known as a bailout) rescue pla
Looks like bernanke needs to go study bernanke papers and start looking in the mirro, where truth will set him free and peace will settle on Earth and hobo pockets will be filled with gold:
And then Kona quotes from Bernanke so apt that I actually remember reading it months ago. Ben, they're stealing your soul! (Of course if he left, we wouldn't get a pony, we'd only get someone else whose soul, if any, would then be stolen.)
FIRST
I prefer June Lockhart.
turdiest
emo is losing his touch...
You know, if I wanted to be one of the nimrods who only says "FIRST", I could be first every time.
Just saying.
Panic !!!!
Fear !!!!
Repeat !!!!
@nemo
Once it's too easy it loses its appeal I guess
Isn't tighter credit necessary and expected after a credit bubble? I would like to see someone explain how we should determine the correct degree of tight.
The person who answers our telephones informs me that we got two robo-calls yesterday from companies trying to sell us business loans.
Credit does not seem to be frozen around here. Of course, we didn't wait for the recordings to end in order to find out what the terms were...
Maybe we should re-schedule Christmas to next June.
"Banks with excess balances put them to work by lending to other banks that have clientscompanies and individualswho need the funds."
That was the old paradigm.
Now, banks without excess balances get eaten alive.
And companies and individuals whose banks don't have excess balances, go out and find new banks. This forces credit competition at those banks. Companies and individuals who present poor credit risks get no credit.
All of which is a much better paradigm, IMHO.
The banks don't need to lend to each other.
And besides which, the Fed lending to all of them has taken away much of the need for the interbank lending market.
CR writes:
And Lockhart is clearly pessimistic on business spending, layoffs, and especially the slowdown of U.S. trading partners (impacting exports).
You forgot the best part: Fed's LockFART pessimistic on passage of bailout bill!
What a joke
The cost of "hedging" default risk SHOULD rise. That's really the whole point of this crisis. Up to now banks have been "hedging" default risk with swaps backed by a gang of marginally solvent hedgies, SIVs and similar fly-by-night operations.
There is no reason why regulated banks and insurance companies should be able to pretend they have laid off the risk of default by another regulated institution, when in fact they have simply taken on exposure to a much LESS reliable institution.
All forms of insurance must be regulated, period, and must be sold at a price that reflects the true cost of maintaining meaningful reserves. Otherwise the so-called insurance is just another speculative bet.
and how is the 700B bailout supposed to help that?
"I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth
of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated
Governments in the civilized world--no longer a Government by free opinion, no longer a Government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a Government by the opinion and duress of a small amount of dominant men." Woodrow Wilso
Comrades,
As I've been saying, interest rates are too low.
The Fed needs to raise. And let the insolvent die.
Nostrovia,
Dow almost up 400 points. Hmmh, what happened to "this sucker is going down?"
GDP will be positive as long as there is enough deflator to play with.
The market's rise is a gift to those who wanted to go short or add to short positions.
Nemo-
I think by next June Xmas would be worse...
BTW isn't Jun 25th the Anti-Christ's B-day?
Let's hope, if they pass a plan... it sucks less (for the taxpayer).
"Otherwise the so-called insurance is just another speculative bet."
Lots of people just now realizing that.
It was always a fantasy that insurance could turn a risky speculation into a sure bet.
Even regulated insurance operations turned out to be beyond dodgy. A bill was just passed and signed in California to prevent health insurance companies from retroactively canceling policies of people who got sick. Weaseling out of payoffs became sufficiently widespread to trigger a political response.
18th
Unless Pelosi gets some mega job on Wall Street she is killing her career.
The blocked pipes metaphor is getting old. Every time I hear it, I think about a blocked toilet pipe. How is sitting on it and having the biggest dump in history going to unblock it? Imagine the resulting mess!
The financial plumbing system is out of date and needs to be replaced. The money for nothing and ever-lasting credit paperprestidigitizer has been seen to be the confidence sham that it is.
Get back to the fiscal bottom line of balanced accounting...it's that simple!
Dow almost up 400 points. Hmmh, what happened to "this sucker is going down?"
I was really expecting the market to be rather flat until there was new bailout news.
Basically, the market should be playing dead until they get their free money. If they rebound too much, it's probably not convince too many people that they really need the free money... err... I mean help.
Bloomberg spin is "Stocks in U.S. Rebound on Speculation Bank-Rescue Package Will Be Approved"
The recession is here.
Better check with Sebastian before you go out on a limb like that.
"Note that Lockhart was already pessimistic before September, and for good reasons."
Exactly...the American consumer was fueling his/her buying spree of the past 5 years with cheap credit, instead of stashing some of his/her income for a rainy day, or to saving for big purchases. Instead of saving for a big-ticket item, consumers financed them using ultra cheap and ultra attractive credit. This caused the economy to "boom" for a while (aka Goldilocks economy).
Now that lenders and investors have opened their eyes to the fact that the American consumer got in way over their collective heads, they are pulling credit back. It's the flip side of the lending boom and spending binge.
What the Federal government should try to do is to make sure we don't overshoot too far in the other direction, in other words keep us from getting to "zero credit", or close to it.
However, make no mistake, that in the absence of the crazy credit programs that got us here in the first place, the American consumer will have to retrench, pull back, cut down, and start saving for a house down payment, a car down payment, etc.
And before anyone yells "bring back the old loan programs, we want the Goldilocks economy back", just remember that even Goldilocks had her limits...and that was the reason house prices stabilized and started to come down in the first place.
Ruh-Roh!
House Members Get Flooded With Calls Supporting Rescue Measure, Aide Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_YZtegX5A9k&refer=home
You know what to do!
.
We can expect the third quarter GDP growth to be -ve.
The advanced estimate is due on Oct 30, 8:30 AM Eastern
BEA2008 Release Schedule
Benny & Hanky are seeing the incoming numbers, and are running scared to try prevent further damage.
If their past actions are any indication, whatever they try will be futile...
.
This is a plan I support:
http://www.denninger.net/letters/genesis.pdf
I hope Krugman will do a 3rd "People I gree with"
I am looking forward to the later post. It will be refreshing to have real data and analysis after the sound and fury of the market recently.
It's probably incredibly annoying to people who reject "technical analysis" or charting in market forecasting; however, a reliable pattern setting up with today's rise (without having tested yesterday's lows) is an A-B=C-D down inside the much larger A-B=C-D down.
Today's market retracement is merely the "C point" of this move. The light volume and bearish flag are two key tells. Once can set high probability prices where the market reverses by looking at Fib. levels and high volume 10-minute, 30-minute, 60-minute bars. Don't have time to go into that, but you get the idea. Bear rally yadda yadda
I think he glosses over the larger picture by limiting his view of the source of our credit crunch as home loans that aren't being repaid. It seems to me that the credit bubble allowed for excessive speculation in both residential and commercial real estate, auto production, business expansion for a variety of national and international corporations, and the entire leveraged buyout industry, to name but a few of the players.
With the rug being pulled out from under the credit market, no matter what happens going forward, we are going to have to generate the money to repay this debt with real production, not speculation and debt roll over.
Inflation, stagnation, and then hyper-inflation!
"The blocked pipes metaphor is getting old."
Can anyone confirm for the little minds like me...doesn't that mean that credit is available, but at a higher prices?
In some contexts that might mean the same as "blocked" (if you are a business living close to the cash flow edge, relying on cheap and abundant short term financing without a plan "B"), but how "blocked" is, well, "blocked".
The $300bn stimulus plan really was a stupid idea. It accomplished nothing and just forestalled many problems or rather dealing with the inevitable problems.
Better to dump $2tn at once than to drop a few hundred bn ever few months. Supposed to be a bazooka, not a six shooter
Also, who was the genius that gave government the idea it could ever avoid a recession? History has only showed them to be delayed, and at significant expense
The McCain regional offices answer the phones quickly:
The page cannot be found
They need to know that their Senator will loose because he lacks a plan and only follow Bush and Obama
If you are going to be off-topic, please don't be off-topic by spamming the comments with the same comments you spammed all over the last thread
I swear I will write to Congress advocating the initial Paulson plan if you keep it up
If Krugman is for it then I am for it.
EvilHenryPaulson writes:
If you are going to be off-topic, please don't be off-topic by spamming the comments with the same comments you spammed all over the last thread
I swear I will write to Congress advocating the initial Paulson plan if you keep it up
Hear Hear!
Anonymous writes:
If Krugman is for it then I am for it.
Fine, Left arm of Krugman.
I have to wonder if any US companies are actually turning a profit from real work instead of loan arbitrage.
Millions of dicussions on-going and virtually nothing about the real problem - too much debt.
Is there anyone left besides multi-millionaire Paulson and Bruce Wayne who can actually function on cash flow?
What is pissing me off about this debate is the notion that everyone needs credit to get by in daily life or throughout the business day.
Whatever happened to savings and 'self-financing' growth through retained earnings?
Maybe people will start to save more and spend less, and borrow less too. Or, is this the financial armageddon Hank fears?
Nemo writes:
Maybe we should re-schedule Christmas to next June.
Just move the general Christmas holiday
to coincide with the Greek Orthodox celebration (early 2009).
I am starting to subscribe to the idea that it a myth that lending to small businesses is tightening.
Banker buddy of mine, managing $250M is corporate and small business loans said that deals which were tough to sigh off on last year, are now getting green lights faster than ever.
This credit freeze excuse is a fear-monger so that the IBs can scare congress into signing this bailout bill to but their marketed to model fantasy paper.
I don't doubt that given enough time, this will impact everyday business. But given enough time, better managed IBs could easily take over the business from the currently insolvent IBs.
This is their greatest fear.
Krugman sez I can haz ponies? woo hoo!
If they get their money what happens
If they don't
So it's a damned if you do, damned if you don't... but I would rather be damned without the $700bn tab!
Interesting Times:
That makes the most sense.
--
Everyone at the Fed spins. They have to.
If you want to see how morally bankrupt Americas ruling elite, including media pundits and talking heads, just watch CNBC and FAUX Business Knows. Erin Burnet is a whore the way she spins. The moral climate has given rise to what I call "legally' organized gangs.
Gangistan must be eradicated of financial, media and political gangs, including the Fed, before any genuine revival can take place. That is decades away.
It is the morality, Stupid!
(Lack thereof during the past 25 years or so WILL take America down).
Jas
Interesting Times writes:
I am starting to subscribe to the idea that it a myth that lending to small businesses is tightening.
I totally agree.
I spoke to a friend of mine at Wells Fargo this morning regarding residential loans. Plenty of lending going on....
By ginning up inflation numbers, unemployment numbers, GDP numbers the government has shot themselves in the foot.
Ben and Paulson are yelling armagedon and according to the government numbers everything is fine. Why should we give those greedy SOBs billions so they can buy more big cars, huge mansions and boats and foreign property.
See when you fool the public into thinking everything is fine "the economy is sound...." then the next breath you yell cratering and emergency action is required by tomorrow, the credibility gap stinks.
Where are the leaders???? It certainly isn't Bush/Paulson. They have as much cred as my pig.
What freaking problem. The dow is almost up 400 points. Crisis averted. Please move along.
Verse 1 - Asset Bubble
Verse 2 - Asset Bubble pops
Verse 3 - Deflation kills banks
Verse 4 - Exports Collapse,"economic growth prospects in many of our major trading partners have weakened notably in recent months"
Verse 5 - Agricultural price collapse
I have heard this tune before and I don't want to hear it again, thank you.
Put some strings on it but give Treasury the money.
What happened? I thought the world was ending? Why are we still here, The Day After The Bailout Failed?
CR writes:
The PCE numbers for August, released yesterday by the BEA, strongly suggest the long anticipated consumer recession has started. September will probably be worse.
And Lockhart is clearly pessimistic on business spending, layoffs, and especially the slowdown of U.S. trading partners (impacting exports).
Additional supporting evidence:
http://web-xp2a-pws.ntrs.com:80/content//media/attachment/data/econ_research/0809/document/dd092908.pdf
What happened to the good old days, e.g, last week, with Morgans CDS spread over 1200 and
they lost over a third of hedge funds clients?
I miss those days!
I spoke to a friend of mine at Wells Fargo this morning regarding residential loans. Plenty of lending going on....
Do you think that it depends on the institution?
Re: those cheerin the bailout, I can only quote (from Wikipedia)what On his return to Paris, Edouard Daladier, Prime Minister of France said when he returned from the Munich sellout (je was opposed to it). Daladier, who was expecting a hostile crowd, was acclaimed. He then told his aide, Alexis Léger: "Ah, les cons (the fools) !"»
Lockart with something that looks like a bazooka
YouTube - To kill a Cougar
Again, could some one please explain to me why a delay has been greeted (on net) with good news?
Anybody?!
Let's take our time with the recapitalization process. Let's make sure it is done right. Only fools rush in.
Ok, I am going to have to ask at the risk of sounding like an idiot. What is a meme?
I'll bet the Fed cuts by 75bp before the end of October. They might do the emergency meeting, followed by the regular Oct28-29 meeting.
They've been running the effective rate at the level for the past few days. The rate will come back up to 2% before the cuts. The PCE report only reinforces my belief -- maybe some analyst or trader is taking conviction in the idea
google is your friend
meme - Is an idea or concept is that spread throughout society or culture.
Thanks, usually I do that, but I thought it might just be a CR thing like "ponies".
Got it now.
"What is a meme?"
Detailed explanation here:
Meme - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Lol... ponies is a perfect example of a meme.
Very true:)
Who here thinks the bailout is really a bailout of the Fed?
The Fed wants their treasury bills back. Their balance sheet is starting to look like the banks they are lending to.
CR has its own world of memes -some dead and gone
Re: "the plumbing of the financial world"
$700 Billion worth of Drano for a few plugged up shitter's
pony - Wiktionary
The Fed wants their treasury bills back. Their balance sheet is starting to look like the banks they are lending to.
Isn't the $700B going to be in the form of new T-bills? So someone out there has to buy those T-bills for it to be valid right?
china? russia?
While their participation in providing credit has grown dramatically, Lockhart said recent financial turmoil has made it clear banks have retained a central role in credit intermediation. Also, they provided back-up liquidity to the conduits that served as intermediaries to the ultimate investors, and they often helped the ultimate investors finance their holdings of the securities.
jacksen
Internet Marketing
current view from the "street"-(small "s")
am in Norfolk VA & just back from shopping at Food Lion-- a huge sorta lower-end supermarket chain on E.coast.
A nice elderly black lady in checkout line telling everyone her "church phone tree" had called her, telling her to call her C-critter today to support the Bailout 2 plan, because if she didn't--"nobody will be able to get their social security checks or paychecks cashed on Friday".
(dunno when SSN checks are mailed, to those without direct deposit, but you can bet there's lotsa very scared elderly folks out there being told they'll not be able to get any money come Friday.)
CEO of Diamond Hill Investment Group tells CNBC why he wants his company off the "No-Short" list:
CNBC Stock Blog - Shorts, Short Sellers - CNBC
"What happened? I thought the world was ending? Why are we still here, The Day After The Bailout Failed?"
That's because everyone is still betting that the bailout WILL pass.
And we all know it's going to, the government wouldn't do something silly like let the will of the people be heard.
"it's for your own good...I swears!"
Isn't the $700B going to be in the form of new T-bills? So someone out there has to buy those T-bills for it to be valid right?
china? russia?
Interesting Times
Yep...sure does. Any chance the Fed buys them outright?
"nobody will be able to get their social security checks or paychecks cashed on Friday".
Wow. More FUD. This is incredible.
Get your heads out of "whether" the .7T bailout goes through and focus on what's next. I think that's what CR is trying to get you to do with this thread.
Looked up FUD too. It is amazing what you can learn from Wikipedia.
Yep...sure does. Any chance the Fed buys them outright?
They can't buy them. Even if they had the money, which they don't, they're collateral. Someone else has to buy them.
They will assuredly go to the Fed.
CNN
What should Congress do now that the bailout bill has been defeated in the House?
Draft a new rescue plan \t42% \t102559
Let risk-taking financial institutions fail \t58% \t143860
Total Votes: 246419
Bush: We will deliver bailout
U.S. markets bounce as bailout revived - CNN.com
NEW: Bush: I assure citizens around the world that this is not the end
FUD is old-school.
risk spreads have widened, the cost of hedging against default risk has risen dramatically, and the range of assets accepted as collateral has narrowed.
so the market acting sensibly again - why does the Fed think this is a problem. To ne it looks like an important part of the solution.
My Congressman's response to my thanking him for voting against Bailout 1.0.
Dear my credit is crunchy:
Thank you for contacting me regarding the nation's financial crisis. I appreciate your input.
Earlier this week I voted against the plan to provide up to $700 billion in taxpayer dollars to shore up the nation's ailing financial markets. The bill failed in the House of Representatives by a vote of 205 - 228. Congressional leaders made significant improvements to the Administration's original proposal - including increased oversight, mechanisms to recoup tax dollars over time, and prohibitions against sweetheart deals for irresponsible CEO's. At the end of the day, however, I remain concerned that we are not doing enough to protect Southwest Louisiana taxpayers - while at the same time bailing out Wall Street billionaires. The free market system is built on key principles of risk and reward. Congress should give great pause before nationalizing Wall Street's bad debt on the backs of hard working Americans.
This financial situation is serious and has far reaching implications for the entire U.S. economy. Over the past month, I consulted with a wide array of financial experts - from across the country and Southwest Louisiana. The financial instruments at the root of the problem are complex. It will take months, if not years, to unravel the mess created by some unscrupulous financiers and implement responsible regulations to ensure this type of market meltdown is not repeated.
In the short term, however, we must restore investor confidence in the markets. Right now, credit is essentially freezing-up nationwide - which means Southwest Louisianians will find it increasingly harder to get a car loan, buy a new house, or finance their children's education. Havoc in the markets also puts at risk U.S. pension plans and harms responsible investors. Congress must act quickly and responsibly to restore faith in the U.S. financial system and work to ensure Main Street - not Wall Street - is protected.
Congress will reconvene later this week to continue discussions on legislation to stabilize the economy. I continue to push for alternatives to protect American taxpayers - like increasing FDIC insurance limits. Congress should also look at reforming outdated accounting laws that artificially undervalue good market assets which has contributed to the financial crisis. Finally, we need to take a hard look at reforming the U.S. credit ratings system.
Again, I appreciate your input. While there is no easy fix to the current crisis, I can assure you that I will continue to fight to safeguard taxpayers' funds and protect the savings and livelihoods of all Southwest Louisianians.
Sincerely,
Charles W. Boustany, Jr., M.D.
Member of Congress
Looks like Bailout 2.0 is all but in the bag.
Enjoy our short-lived victory and go pick out your pitchforks.
"layoffs have become more widespread, and hiring intentions have pulled back further."
Has been going on for the past 5 years. Capital chases the highest returns and the lowest labor costs.
There aren't enough jobs to replace the ones going offshore or being replaced with automation.
What does this have to do with the so-called "financial crisis"?
Also learned this:
FUD, Female urination device
I missed that yesterday Roubini began meme-ing that MS and GS each need to hurry and find a large foreign financial institution to absorb them, and policy authorities around the world need to coordinate an immediate global 100bps reduction in policy rates to signal they take things, you know, seriously...
...worsening global credit crunch...
Financial Bailout Vote: House Members Voting 'Yes' Received 54% More Money from Banks and Securities | MAPLight.org
"nobody will be able to get their social security checks or paychecks cashed on Friday".
These are the same people who (if they have any spare cash) get sold front load annuities, option arm refis on their paid off houses, etc.
How typical that they are being mobilized to facilitate looting the taxpayer. Sad.
Did this man just tell us globable banking doesn't work? Did this man just tell us if we sent all our jobs to Asia the banking industry couldn't work, Did this man just tell us if we have nothing to export yet import every thing we need the dollars stay in Asia.
In politics nothing happens by accident, you can bet it was planned that way...FDR
For my part, I've called my Congresscritter. Twice.
He still voted for a bailout.
Oh, yes, the broadcast reporting I've seen on ABC and CBS concerning this whole thing has been nothing less than irresponsible. It's pretty obvious the USA's chattering class (with the exception of Robert Krulwich, who did a nice animated piece on what's happening), simply Don't Get It.
I'm with the going long on pitchforks crowd.
Wisdom Seeker says "House Members Get Flooded With Calls Supporting Rescue Measure, Aide Says"
Did the Aide say how much these folks have pledged, in after tax dollars, to support their position?
Here is how it should work:
Everybody in TX write an $11,000.00 personal check payable to GS.
Everybody in FL should write an $11,000.00 personal check payable to MS.
Everybody in CA should write an $11,000.00 perosnal check payable to C.
and so on...
for those so inclined TIPS yields have jumped into rarified air - a great long term inflation hedge...
mainstreetamerica writes:
In politics nothing happens by accident, you can bet it was planned that way...FDR
.... and Karl Rove is very pleased.
They will assuredly go to the Fed.
Misstated myself. The cash proceeds will be used to bribe banks to give a (considerably) lesser value in Treasuries back to the Fed.
I am wondering if Bailout 1.0 was a test and/or for our benefit only.
"We feel your pain and share your regret, but we gotta do what we gotta do."
I said it before a thousand times , I'll say it again ...
Until the insolvent banks are purged from the system the banking system will choke ...
The issue is trust, not liquidity ...
The problem is that these insolvent banks are politically connected through Paulson and the Democratic leadership.
We need the Scandinavian Plan whereby we have a bank holiday , throw out the insolvent and re-capitalize the rest with tax payer equity ...
Call your reps and tell them NO to the Paulson -Pelosi Plan, that it won't work, that it is a tax payer ripoff.
Got my gift from BB today. It came in a pony box but it was only a squirrel.
Two comments.
First: "A Working Financial Sector Matters to Us All". True. But it matters to different degrees and the issue here is why people to whom it does not matter much should be loaded up to bail out those for whom it seems like the whole universe. The masters of the universe did not pony up for the foreclosed, for the autoworkers... and on and on.
Second: The comment "this will affect Main Street" waved out there as though it is a justification. What is missing is the other half: so will the bailout because Main Street is who will pay. So now we need quantification, not arm-waving. We don't have that.
No goals. No quantities. No specifics. No definitions. No definition of success or failure. No exit strategy.
For $700 billion, a minimum of homework could be done. The fact that there isn't simply points out the fact that this is fundamentally a politically deal.
What if Russia and China don't want to buy our Treasuries? Who will?
Ironic question of the day:Would the treasury finance the bailout package with short term (
Re: "nobody will be able to get their welfare checks or paychecks cashed on Friday"
So what!
Securities Regulators Plan Fair Value Guidance
SEC to Banks: Firesale Prices Not Always Necessary - Financials * US * News * Story - CNBC.com
They'll mark to fantasy with or without the bill i think.
The plan is just to 'legitimize' what has probably been done or in the process of already.
Once we buy all the worst paper from the banks, it will be business as usual. Isn't business as usual what drove the economy off the cliff?
$Billion Bank Bailout, 2008
$Trillion Bank Bailout, 2010
Squirrels aint just for breakfast anymore!
Unknown "21. A stylish pair of bronzed squirrel bookends on marble bases signed by M.Le Verrier ", Mossgreen Gallery | Art Network Australia
A stylish pair of bronzed squirrel bookends on marble bases signed by M.Le Verrier French, Circa 1930
Moody's on Housing: No Bottom until 2010?
Page not found - - CNBC.com
Previously, the credit rating agency had called for the housing market to bottom around mid-2009.
The exact timing of a turnaround could depend on the outcome of a $700 billion financial system bailout plan pending in Congress, Moody's said.
You see. There is the solution, right in front of the reg's faces.
We have level 3 securities(houses), but no level 3 wages.
The answer isn't to tighten down on stated income loans, it is to expand it!
Everyone wins!
Yeah, two pieces of scuttlebutt behind the move today, I'm hearing:
the NAR sent this campaign out to its members today...
excerpt:
"Dear ,
Main Street Needs Relief Now
Move beyond the debate over who is responsible and move towards a solution that will benefit REALTORS and the consumers we serve.
Please urge your members of Congress to support EESA.
By now you have heard that Congress failed to pass the Emergency Economic Stability Act (EESA). This is a critical time for our nation, and REALTORS everywhere need to call on Congress to enact a recovery plan that will end the economic crisis we are facing.
I have received messages from many of you, wondering why NAR is supporting this unprecedented government investment in financial institutions and the housing market. The truth is that consumers everywhere already are feeling the impact of the credit crisis. Many buyers can no longer find financing they need to buy a home, contracts are being pulled off the table, and sellers are taking their listings down. Without swift and substantial intervention, all REALTORS and the consumers we serve will soon face a market where:
Getting a mortgage, small business, or short-term loan becomes extremely difficult, even for good credit consumers and businesses.
Consumer and business bankruptcies rise significantly, as refinancing options are shut down.
Lines of credit are reduced and interest rates on personal and business credit cards rise, adding to the burden on families.
Consumer and business spending declines, further depressing the economy.
Unemployment increases significantly.
Budget deficits increases noticeably due to declining revenue collection at all levels of government....."
the NAR sent this campaign out to its members today...
A very good reason to keep the faxes and emails against the bailout flowing...
Re the David Brooks column in the NY Times - that what is needed is to shore up home prices.
This shows he fails to understand the problem - shoring up home prices only serves to perpetuate the bubble.
The elephant in the room is that over the last 8 years, home prices soared while average wages remained flat, to only with subprime money could the average wage earner "afford" a home.
So, maybe Brooks understands more - shoring up home prices and perpetuating fooling mortgage lending is needed to forestall the revolution, or to keep Reagan from becoming a dirty name.
up 500!
CR,
You have in the past spoken accurately of lags in the system. I would suggest that if we mapped out the various rises of debt (credit) levels of all the different retail debt instruments:
housing
credit cards
auto loans
personal loans
HELOCs
etc
Then we would quite possibly be able to see the 'script' of the consumer level process of deleveraging and be able to map this script to how and who it would effect in the wholesale markets.
What we've seen recently is an unprecedented level of tight coupling (ahem!) between retail and wholesale where the demise now of the former is the prophecy of latter's demise.
The number of individuals and companies who can present themselves as a good (low) credit risk is so small, as compared to the number of companies and individuals who were able to get credit before the crisis (really pre-mid2007) hit, that there simply will not be enough credit extension to sustain any level of economic growth.
Our only real hope is that China, India and South America - Chile, Brazil - start large scale domestic spending policies and US companies are able to win good sized orders (this will become harder as the US sinks into deflation and the dollar rises in the short to medium term).
As a side note to the inflationists - yes, that will happen but not before the deflation hits. -ve breakeven rates on 2 years is all you need to tell you this.
All the best.
"...Prior to September, we at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta had a rather downbeat outlook for the second half of 2008 and early 2009. We expectedand continue to expecta very weak second half reflecting contracting consumer spending, weaker business investment, and slower export volume."
Well, Lockhart's and the Atlanta Fed's forecast is already looking dubious.
(I already posted this on a previous thread.)
U.S. Sept. Chicago PMI holds at high level
By Greg Robb
Last update: 9:52 a.m. EDT Sept. 30, 2008
Comments: 12
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Business activity in the Chicago region expanded at a healthy pace in September, according to a survey of corporate purchasing managers released Tuesday. The Chicago purchasing managers index inched lower to 56.7 in September from 57.9 in August but stayed well above the 53.0% expected by analysts. Readings above 50 indicate overall business expansion. The Chicago PMI has rebounded after hitting a low of 40.5% in February. The Chicago PMI is considered a leading indicator to the national Institute for Supply Management manufacturers' survey to be released on Wednesday. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expect the ISM factory index to slip to 49.6% from 49.9%.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-sept-chicago-pmi-holds/story.aspx?guid={043F448E-1BE0-4254-960F-E5AD78CE1322}&dist=msr_2
S.
As has been pointed here in many posts (but somewhat lacks in the CR post), we really have to thank the FED in particular, but also the FDIC and the Treasury for successfully limiting the banking liquidity crisis to the banking industry / Wall street. Main street has not been overly touched by the credit crunch. This is fortunately 100% different than the reaction to the 1929 downturn (that is actually what Jas and the likes want - crazy and inhumane). So far, so good. Now Congress needs to get their act together as well. Then we'll still have some bumpy years ahead, but without it getting out of hand.
O-Joe
"Then we'll still have some bumpy years ahead, but without it getting out of hand."
Yeah -- its contained.
Sebastien,
That rise in manufacturing will probably have its roots in the low-USD levels earlier in the year. As the USD rises, those indicators will fall. Lags.
All the best
Ironic question of the day:Would the treasury finance the bailout package with short term
They have fronted at least that many Treasuries to the Fed already to keep it operating.
And a good explanation of how the Senate might act 'first' even though the Constitution requires that all tax legislation originate in the House:
"An alternate route, described by two aides as a "nuclear" option, is for the Senate to pass a measure first, then adjourn and force the House to accept the Senate measure. Such a move would need to be attached to an innocuous tax bill already pending before the Senate in order to circumvent a constitutional mandate that all tax writing must originate in the House. "We always keep tax bills available for such situations," said Jim Manley, a senior adviser to Senate majority leader Harry Reid. "But I don't see that happening as of right now."
Right now? Check back in a few hours.
House Members Get Flooded With Calls Supporting Rescue Measure, Aide Says
I fully expected it.
I firmly believe that each and every country deserves what it gets. That's why, for example, I don't blame Bush for the last 8 years, I blame the american public.
If sheeple want to get eaten, who can save them?
On CNBC this morning it was said the 99 to 1 numbers against the bailout was just a few fanatics who were calling/faxing in. They said the polls were showing 1/3 for, 1/3 against and 1/3 uncertain. How's that for spin.
I've not watched any of the financial news programs today.
Have any of them mentioned that the $1.2tn loss shown ON ALL PROGRAMS yesterday wasn't quite that bad today?
Looks like bernanke needs to go study bernanke papers and start looking in the mirro, where truth will set him free and peace will settle on Earth and hobo pockets will be filled with gold:
In any measure of reserve adequacy, gross reserves need to be carefully measured in line with the internationally accepted definition. To reflect available liquidity, it is reasonable in the indicators to augment gross reserves with contingent lines of credit that are truly usable, and to subtract from them obligations of the monetary authorities that can materialize immediately, such as derivatives subject to margin calls.
Corporate nonpayment arises either from corporate insolvency or illiquidity, and the degree of leverage is an important variable influencing the risk of both. Companies that are highly leveraged are more vulnerable to declining values of their assets (i.e., balance sheet effects), as their debt to collateral ratios are higher; and an increase in the domestic currency cost of servicing of debt relative to the value of collateral can trigger financing problems, which in turn can further reduce the value of collateral if widespread. Leveraged companies are also more vulnerable to cutoffs in financing as cash outflows (for debt service) are larger. The same applies to corporations with a high share of short-term debt. Profits and cash flow of such companies are also more sensitive to changes in interest rates (Bernanke and Gertler, Inside the Black Box: the Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 1995).
Debt- and Reserve-Related Indicators of External Vulnerability
Debt and Reserve Related Indicators of External Vulnerability
If sheeple want to get eaten, who can save them?
Missing Bag
~
If enough people who know what they are talking about get active we can stop this Bailout.
This fight is not over ...
Your Reps by zip code ...
C-SPAN | Capitol Hill, The White House and National Politics
Have any of them mentioned that the $1.2tn loss shown ON ALL PROGRAMS yesterday wasn't quite that bad today?
Sure. Rally IN ANTICIPATION OF APPROVAL. If it was down, it'd be continued fear. Why would you think otherwise, do you want the terrorists to win?
Have any of them mentioned that the $1.2tn loss shown ON ALL PROGRAMS yesterday wasn't quite that bad today?
I guess they forgot to mention wealth in the US is not equally divided.
OT
I just received an offer from Capital One in the mail to the wrong person.
It reads As of 9-23-08, our records show youve earned this offer for a 0% APR on balance transfers and 0% APR on purchases until January 2010.
When will they learn?
OT, Countrywide finally, releases foreclosure data after 1 month wait. This is why financials are suspect. We can't get good numbers on foreclosures and the NAR spins sales to the positive.
Countrywide Foreclosures (REO) Blog
CR,
No recession here. GDP was up in the 2nd quarter, so the soonest we could possibly have a OFFICIAL recession is in January 2009 if the 3rd and 4th quarter GDPs are both down.
La la la la Life goes on.
Sebastian,
Thanks for the link. It reminds me of the famous quote by Marx:
Who you gonna believe, me or you own two eyes?
(Chico, natch)
@O-Joe
Optimistic-Joe writes:
As has been pointed here in many posts (but somewhat lacks in the CR post), we really have to thank the FED in particular, but also the FDIC and the Treasury for successfully limiting the banking liquidity crisis to the banking industry / Wall street. Main street has not been overly touched by the credit crunch. This is fortunately 100% different than the reaction to the 1929 downturn (that is actually what Jas and the likes want - crazy and inhumane). So far, so good. Now Congress needs to get their act together as well. Then we'll still have some bumpy years ahead, but without it getting out of hand.
O-Joe
Thanks a yahoo. If they had done their job in the first place we wouldn't be where they are today. We should abolish the FED, depose Paulson, and replace the incompetent management at the FDIC.
Some hedge fund managers are said to be invoking clauses in contracts to prevent investors getting their money out, fearful that even a trickle of redemptions could turn into a stampede. And in the febrile atmosphere that pervades financial centres today, they may be right. The heyday of hedge funds - whose astronomical pay packets have attracted the brightest graduates as well as former high-flying investment bankers - look to be past. The capital-starved banks are turning off the borrowing tap and making margin calls, which force leveraged funds to provide extra collateral as security in a falling and uncertain market.
But smaller funds have been falling like ninepins. Researchers say 243 have been liquidated in the first half of 2008, the highest number in any six-month period. Only one in 10 did well enough to levy a performance fee during the same timespan.
He predicted that average holding periods for investments (before they are sold on or floated) would double to eight years, as short-termism gave way to a more measured approach.
We can take it as a given that the whole financial landscape will be dramatically changed because the debt boom of the past 16 years is over. With its demise, we will see the contraction of a huge industry that grew up in its wake, one that spawned a heady cocktail of debt-related investment opportunities and their derivatives, with sub-prime mortgage backed securities lighting the fuse that led to the current crisis.
As Freud says: 'Debts that in more staid times would be regarded as too hot to handle became the norm, offering generous returns, and tradeable in a debt markets that grew massively in size, scope and complexity.'
404 Page not found
Good place for a bounce.
MisesRules writes:
we would quite possibly be able to see the 'script' of the consumer level process of deleveraging and be able to map this script to how and who it would effect in the wholesale markets.
Cr, I second the suggestion that it would be productive to examine debt limits. Whether viewed a the inevitable result of deleverging or the "impending impact { or aftermath } of the credit crunch" it seems clear that the consumer demand has to fall. It make good sense to think it through.
rps writes:
"I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth
of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated
Governments in the civilized world--no longer a Government by free opinion, no longer a Government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a Government by the opinion and duress of a small amount of dominant men." Woodrow Wilson
Wilson then continued,
"That being said, I had a great f-ing time. Who's up for some dancing girls?"
From another board: House Rejects Bailout Package, 228-205; Stocks Plunge - Readers' Comments - NYTimes.com
September 29, 2008 7:52 am
It seems truly astounding that the extent of the exposure to the "boomless pit" component of this deal, the so-called credit default swaps, has not been quantified. These are essentially futures contracts with margin calls. The exposure to them has already taken down major investment houses. The extent of these default insurance contracts is often mentioned in the media as being in the 50 trillion [with a "t"] range. If there is a significant amount of this exposure, then is there any reason that the U.S. Government could not become indebted for this amount or be forced to itself default on these mammoth commitments. I have seen nothing in the media to indicate that these instruments are not in the deal. I know it seems incredible, but what if Congress is unwittingly about to vote yes on something that could creat a USG default situation?
Joe G., Santa Cruz, CA
Aides to Representative Jim Moran of VA think the bill is required to save 401k plans.
The aid said more money was lost in the market yesterday than the cost of the plan.
I said so what!? It wasnt taxpayer money.
Its a fun call - one aide likes to argue if you say your against the bailout.
(202) 225-4376
House Members Get Flooded With Calls Supporting Rescue Measure, Aide Says
I posted (upthread) a portion of the NAR letter that went out to the membership today. It contains a link that allows you to automatically send a letter of support to your congress people (mine, if sent, would automatically go to Schiff, Feinstein and Boxer.) Schiff, btw, voted against it.
Currently there are over 800,000 members of NAR, all of whom would have received this easy to execute email.
NO BAILOUT PERIOD!
This money ($700B) will not change the course of this economic melt down and will probably prolong the deep recession we are heading into.
A deep recession is a much needed painful "cure" to our disease of extreme dept that will happen in order to restore balance. The best way to do that is by NOT having the government meddle with the free market. Let the market work this mess out.
NO ON ANY BAILOUT!
Congress is all about "spin" rather than doing what is just.
I hate politics and I hate that I have to get involved, but I do.
Anyone against the bailout or against the inflationary policies that have redistributed wealth to the rich in general, must act now.
I just heard Obama say there will be plenty of time to punish later. That's not true (and up until now I was an ardent Obama supporter).
We are in a unique position: the banks need us, and our politicians are up for re-election. The stars might never line up like this again. If we can't get some reasonalbe, fair legislation and reforms passed now, it's not going to happen in the future.
Yal writes:
This is a plan I support:
404 Not Found genesis.pdf
I hope Krugman will do a 3rd "People I gree with"
Yal | 09.30.08 - 3:04 pm | #
I think I'm going to hide in my basement, the end must be near - I pretty much agree with Karl too. I might quibble a bit over how much it would cost (I think there is more debt there but let's see). Way better than Paulson's Plan anyway.
Basically what Karl's proposing is what FDR did via RFC - and it worked then, would work now.
"Aides to Representative Jim Moran of VA think the bill is required to save 401k plans."
By giving more money to the same den of snakes that CONed these people into buying into this is in search of the greater fool Ponzie scheme. Doesn't fly with me.
Thanks a yahoo. If they had done their job in the first place we wouldn't be where they are today. We should abolish the FED, depose Paulson, and replace the incompetent management at the FDIC.
Gavshire Hathaway
I think this is a rather ignorant view. There were as many manias and panics before the FED was established. The only difference was that there was almost no mitigating of the panic effects until past the Grest Depression, causing repeated extreme hardship for the American people. If any of the then-living could talk to you, they would praise above institutions and what they are doing now, including the bail-out. If you want to go back to the hardship of the past, go ahead. But don't require me to go there, too.
O-Joe
We are in a unique position: the banks need us, and our politicians are up for re-election. The stars might never line up like this again. If we can't get some reasonalbe, fair legislation and reforms passed now, it's not going to happen in the future.
~~~~~~~~~
We are in the unique position of giving $700 Billion to Wall Street Banksters. This all about bailing out te politically connected Wall Street Banks Period !
"Aides to Representative Jim Moran of VA think the bill is required to save 401k plans."
So ask them if they are proposing guaranteeing 401k plans.
so many wannabe politicians - so few who get what's real. Sad really.
Optimistic-Joe
The privately Owned and Operated Federal Reserve has its' fingerprints all over this crisis.
In 1994 Congress told Alan Greenspan to regulate mortgage brokers and gave him the tools to do it ... 1994 !
In 2002 Greenspan was warned again by a fellow Reserve Board Member that these brokers were pushing crap.
Greenspan then touted these loans as innovative!
Did anyone see this?
http://www.techcrunch.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/09/septembermadnessb.jpg
Obama's thinking is that this will be blamed on Bush, but if we don't pass it his presidency will be a nightmare, so screw the taxpayers and pass it.
Re: the bill is required to save 401k plans.
Bullshit! If some people in 401ks had retarded over-leveraged bets on exchange traded shit, then, yes, the bailout will save them, but the next question to ask, is why the other people that were in safer investments, who wanted to avoid risk, should end up paying off the bets of all the retards?
Kona writes:
Did anyone see this?
Wow ! great post ... NWO ...
BTW - I called my senators this AM (~9AM Eastern Time)... got right into their clerks. Had a nice chat and asked that they kill it. No hysteria, no screaming, no threats just stern business voice - kill it... its bad politics & even worse policy.
Told them who I was, where I lived (in state for 30 years) and that I vote every election. I chatted ~3 minutes with each. One of my senators is in a close race for reelection - I told them I had voted for him before and voted against him before - its always a toss up - this vote matters.
I also told them I fully understand the issue and there are choices besides this bill - ones that are FAR better for tax payers and Main Street. Research it. If you don't understand the issue - delay.
Just suggesting - you might get farther with persuasion than w/ screaming & yelling.
Yesterday The Leave No Banker Behind Program was defeated.
This morning the World ended in fire
and ice.
Human beings are now only a memory.
We should have given them the money.
Look at how drastically the effective funds rate has risen and fallen compared to the target rate. Can anyone explain the sudden change from over the target rate to far below it? http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/fredgraph?&chart_type=line&graph_id=0&category_id=&recession_bars=On&width=1000&height=600&bgcolor=%2399FF99&txtcolor=%23000000&preserve_ratio=true&&s_1=1&s[1][id]=DFF&s[1][transformation]=lin&s[1][scale]=Left&
dryfly
good idea ...
thanks for calling your Senators, for all us ...
I called mine as well, for all the good it will do ...
This has to be stopped in the House ... The Senate is just about hopeless.
I've talked to several people who rely on commercial credit - they have NO problem getting loans - the only problem is getting them at the insanely low rates they were getting a couple years back.
I see no reason not to let this play out naturally.
Daily Kos: Progressive Caucus to present Rescue package at 3pm
Interesting news, vote Repubs to congress and a Dem president.
That would keep these politicians in check.
the bill is required to save 401k plans.
So Congress is now a bunch of traders trying to preserve intraday market values?
Thank you dryfly, we need to keep calling and educating ourselves, as well as those that vote for all the J6P's
This Congress must step up to its constitutional responsibilities to craft that right deal, not an insider trade, says Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) of Ohio, who opposes $700 billion in government purchases of troubled assets on the books of US and foreign financial institutions.
The financial crisis in the 1980s was resolved in a much more disciplined and rigorous way than taxpayers printing money for Wall Street, she adds, referring to actions by the FDIC to resolve thousands of problem situations with no cash changing hands.
Meanwhile, Republicans face a tougher task of bringing on board conservatives convinced that the Paulson plan is a step toward socialism. Im resolute in my opposition, said Rep. Darrell Issa (R) of California. Today we are ending the Reagan era if we vote for this, and we cant come back and fix it next year.
Unless the market drops substantially, the Republicans arent going to get scared enough to do the right thing. At this point, theyre listening to talk radio and not listening to the president, said Rep. James Moran (D) of Virginia, after the vote.
listening to talk radio...
Why not blogging @ CR?
ROTL+FLMAO:
Check this cartoon out:
Seattle Post-Intelligencer: David Horsey
Those are great!
Seattle Post-Intelligencer: David Horsey
Maria Bartiromo losing her shit on Hardball about the bailout not happening. She's a shill for Paulson and Bernanke. I can't believe I used to love her.
House Members Get Flooded With Calls Supporting Rescue Measure, Aide Says
I'd bet there's a large basement office somewhere on WS or in New Jersey, filled with temp workers busy making calls to congress and posting apocalyptic messages on various key blog forums about the dire consequences of not passing the bailout. Maybe they've been promised a cut of the take.
My reps have a blog for entries on their websites and not one was positive. So...I'd say the new numbers are all spin..but the NAR is about as DUMB a you can get. They may SHARE a brain?
The spin on the media channels is unbelievable. I just need to turn the TV off! Listening to these losers can only lose you money.
TIMMAYY!
Reps check names, addresses, and voting logs. They know who is important and who isn't as far as their jobs go. Got Money?
No doubt some small brains are scared,..I mean who wouldn't if you watched TV. Pass it or your fucked was the message I got? Anybody? CNBC you are PATHETIC DICK SUCKERS!
If the banks don't have confidence in each other, why should we put our money on the table for them?
Did you know the DTCC owne all of your stock and bonds? The who? That's what I said - read this:
WHO REALLY OWNS YOUR MONEY? Part One: The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation « Your Mortgage or Your Life…
It is very disturbing.
this credit market scare talk is just that: scare talk.
I hope the banking committee invest at least a LITTLE of their time verifying the effects of this crunch on their constituents. After all, didn't they get fooled by the same scare talk over WMD only to find evidence tissue thin?
If they look hard they will find that the effects of the "lockup in the arteries" are really just the withdrawal of easy credit to risky situations and to stop this would be like unclogging arteries that feed a cancer.
and yeah CNBC editors should be arrested for crimes against the state. Suddenly indexes and company report and economic statistics don't matter, it is all about an interbank market that none of them even understand or track? yeah right. They probably first said the word TED this year.
They are being told behind the scenes which bogey man to inflate and the guests are complicit as it suits their books.
yeah, but
we'll be fine
in 2009
because it rhymes.
Attempting to contact my House Rep., the following message appeared after completing the obligatory zip code + 4 info:
The House of Representatives is currently experiencing an extraordinarily high amount of email traffic. The Write Your Representative function is therefore intermittently available. While we realize communicating to your Members of Congress is critical, we suggest attempting to do so at a later time, when demand is not so high. System engineers are working to resolve this issue and we appreciate your patience.
Perhaps the same System engineers can work on a practical and just (formerly known as a bailout) rescue pla
CR: if exports are slowing down, are you rethinking your scenario on the unemployment rate and severity of the recession? Thanks.
Kona @ 4:06 nails it:
And then Kona quotes from Bernanke so apt that I actually remember reading it months ago. Ben, they're stealing your soul! (Of course if he left, we wouldn't get a pony, we'd only get someone else whose soul, if any, would then be stolen.)
Sorry for the language, I had a couple and dislike socialism.
I want to apologize to Rick Santelli too. Your a stud man! keep it up and sorry if you saw this?