Does your chart use a consistent definition of unemployment? I believe the government severely narrowed what is "unemployed". Because if you look at the U-6 (broadest definition -- includes "underemployed" + those with expired beneifts as well), we must have 10%+ unemployment.
During the '30s I believe the government used the equivalent of U-6 to calculate the legendary 25% unemployment numbers of the first GD.
So, look at the U-6.
Every Jan / July, the B/D adjusts for delta between what it adds/subtracts and reality of the prior 5 months. For example, say for Feb - June the B/D adds 100k jobs a month, while in reality 0 jobs were created. Then, come July, the B/D adjusts -500k to match reality. So even if the economy added 300k jobs in July, the headline number would be -200k (a LOSS of 200k).
That's why the jobs report lately usually craps the bed come Jan and July.
The 4,000 number is not seasonally adjusted. The best way to estimate the effect on the seasonally adjusted payroll number is instead to look at average addition during the latest year, which is 71,000.
The data saying construction jobs are still being added to the economyas the B/D model contends is the case for Julyis absolutely no different from the glorious agricultural and manufacturing statistics put out annually by the old Soviet Union.
badger boy, the graph uses a consistent measure of unemployment. Some of the other measures have been changed - as you noted - but the headline number has been calculated consistently for the period shown.
The comments from Mofaz, who also serves as transportation minister, echoed statements he made last month to the Jerusalem Post that ``all options are on the table. If there won't be a choice other than a nuclear Iran or a military option, it's clear what our decision has to be.''
Similar threats he made in June were tied then to a surge in oil prices.
"Similar threats he made in June were tied then to a surge in oil prices."
While I'm sure a politician would NEVER use his position to fatten his wallet, I'm nonetheless curious if this Mofaz has personal investments in the oil business.
Lehman Brothers Holdings is in talks with prospective buyers to sell about $30 billion in commercial mortgage assets and other hard-to-value securities, the New York Post reported
The General Motors numbers have to be bad news for the entire mid west. More layoffs and cutbacks in the entire industry and they are on their collective asses now. Some of those states are going to be making big cuts.
Just an opinion, but likely most all of the private economists reports to industries predicted a first half slowdown with a second half 08 recovery. Employers in viable industries did not want to lose good employees as they are very hard to replace.
Now that we see that the "brainy guys" were wrong, you will see the really painful jobs cuts coming.
You are either right, or close but not quite, depending on what you mean with you mathematical example. Your comment on the example (craps the bed) suggests close but not quite. BLS doesn't dump the entire adjustment for revisions into the January and July counts. It revises back months. The total in July may be lower by the entire adjustment, but so is the total for the prior month, so the change in July doesn't reflect the revision. Only the level does.
Curlydan,
The unemployment rate is draw from the household survey. The plug is for the payroll survey. The unemployment rate is unaffected by the plug.
By the way, isn't the timing of the Lehman announcment just choice? Same day as the FT waves around the Fitch warning that CMBS has trouble ahead. But you knew that, right, 'cause you read CR?
Look at the duration of the sub-zero year-over-year change in employment line (the red one) from 2001 through 2003 - the longest period of subzero employment change on the chart.
1) The underlying real economy in jobs quietly rotted away for years,
2) The Fed held interest rates absurdly low to try and fight this,
3) The absurdly low interest rates sparked and sustained the housing bubble, and
4) The entry of ultra low cost Chinese labor into the world economy gutted the traditional relationship between low US interest rates and US employment growth - neutering the primary intent of Fed interest rate policies and in fact rendering them positively disasterous since they only served to feed the housing bubble.
Not to oversimplify too radically, but I think that is pretty much the economic history of the last 8 years.
History will puzzle at the Fed's ignorance of the China Effect and its insane willingness to hammer at the same single button that it possesses ("Drop Short-Term Rates").
In the face of the nearing entitlement catastrophe, an idiotic housing bubble fed by Fed stupidity was the last thing we needed.
I've been thinking that CR's shallow recession/slow grinding recovery scenario is in some ways the worst outcome. Not only have we gotten used to relatively mild recessions the past 25 years, they've also been fairly short -- and followed by another bubble of some sort. A long slog will feel like Chinese water torture to boomers staring at retirement (if they can still afford it).
Yeah. I kind of oversimplified it. I know B/D is an ARIMA model with some ungodly number of parameters. I also have enough of a statistics background that when I heard the number of parameters the B/D model had, I kind of snickered. The model would tend to overfit the data.
But, I think curlydan has a point: Since the B/D is a moving average model, it could impute in the wrong direction (theoretically).
That chart shows that the inadequacy of the current "recession" definition. Prior to the mid-80's the recession bars pretty much coincide with the large unemployment increases. That's as it should be. But starting with 1991, the recession bars are tiny slivers covering only the worst parts of the unemployment increases. This might be due to the GDP deflator changes - I haven't tried to analyze this - but clearly the current official definition of "recession" is too strict.
tranches - see my comment above. The last two recessions weren't really mild (they were pretty average) and they were both prolonged. The official definition of recession is misdescribing them. I agree though that if we see that kind of non-official but actual recession drag on for years and years it will be very hard on a lot of people. Turning Japanese indeed.
"The data saying construction jobs are still being added to the economyas the B/D model contends is the case for Julyis absolutely no different from the glorious agricultural and manufacturing statistics put out annually by the old Soviet Union."
I used to work for the press agency that published these figures in the US. There was a very uncomplimentary term in our shop for our readers.
From Wikipedia, for Boat52: Large denominations of United States currency - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia At one time, however, it also included five larger denominations. High-denomination currency was prevalent from the very beginning of U.S. Government issue (1861). $500, $1,000, and $5,000 interest bearing notes were issued in 1861, and $10,000 gold certificates arrived in 1865. There are many different designs and types of high-denomination notes.
The high-denomination bills were issued in a small size in 1929, along with the $1 through $100 denominations. The designs were as follows:
The $500 bill featured a portrait of William McKinley
The $1,000 bill featured a portrait of Grover Cleveland
The $5,000 bill featured a portrait of James Madison
The $10,000 bill featured a portrait of Salmon P. Chase
The $100,000 bill featured a portrait of Woodrow Wilson.
And this quotation:
"Circulation of high-denomination bills was halted in 1969 by executive order of President Richard Nixon, in an effort to combat organized crime."
Maybe, now that organized crime is licked, they'll start reprinting those bills [/sarcasm]
"The comments from Mofaz, who also serves as transportation minister, echoed statements he made last month to the Jerusalem Post that ``all options are on the table. If there won't be a choice other than a nuclear Iran or a military option, it's clear what our decision has to be.''
If Israel goes to war with Iran - then what happens?
What would the reaction be in Moscow and Beijing?
The door of doom may swing ajar. God help us if it does.
I'll do my monthly pissing in the wind and mention that the headline unemployment number is called U3, that U6 is better when comparing to the rest of the world and the U6 seasonally unemployed percentage is 10.3%
"What good does it do to gab about hitting Iran's nuclear assets? He must feel a verbal threat would accomplish something?"
Yes, of course, he must hope that such a verbal threat will be sufficient, or at least helpful. Everyone in his right mind must be very anxious not to let events get out of control. But when he refers to an 'existential threat', that sounds serious to me. Dr. Rice also made an ominous sounding comment this week.
It gives me the creeps, as I guess it's meant to. But I'm not an Iranian, and I have no idea how they're taking it.
Kurtyboy,
I read the Wikipedia article and was impressed with the fact that all the high value currency bills are now collectibles. Kind of interesting that they were all issued beginning in 1929. Maybe folks wanted money under their mattresses rather than in banks. I know there are large denomination Euros, I think maybe 500 Euros.
Is there a $1,000 bill and has anyone ever seen one? You can bet you will and it will be a great deal sooner than everyones expects.
Boat52 | 08.01.08 - 10:29 am | #
I'm tempted to say that you're on the money!
At the supermarket the other day I looked U.S. Grant square in the face as I paid for $29 in groceries. Let's face it, fifty is the new twenty, and Franklins don't cut it in a day when gassing up an SUV exceeds $100.
But I wouldn't hold my breath for bigger bills. Although intrinsically harmless (as opposed to, say, the falling dollar vs. the Euro or Yen), they would be political dynamite: an explicit and embarrassing admission that the world's largest economy is out of control.
BTW, $500 and $1,000 bills (depicting Presidents McKinley and Cleveland, respectively) haven't been printed since 1945 and were retired during the Nixon era, although they remain in circulation as collectibles.
regarding the large denomination bills, I seem to remember they were primarily used to transfer money from one bank to another. One reason they are no longer used (besides Nixon's decision to hinder crime) is that banks now transfer funds electronically.
I don't need large bills to gas my SUV because I use my ATM debit card...and so far, my 18 gallon tank has not cost more than $57 to fill...so far...
Great graph and commentary today. I agree heartily with those who find this blog (and its commentary) one of the best around.
As part of a larger package of data targeting real estate market information, my team tracks 6 month rolling averages of employment growth (total nonfarm and by supersector) and unemployment for over 200 cities around the country - what's been amazing to us of late is the increasingly wide range between the best and the worst cities - we haven't seen this impressive a spread between the best/ worst in the five years we've been tracking data. In the midst of the doom and gloom there are some surprisingly strong employment markets (cities) out there.
Odessa is #1 - they will like that in their perennial competition with Midland - energy driven growth driven by activity in the Permian Basin. More of the white collar set living in Midland, more of the blue collar set in Odessa...no value judgement there, just sayin.
For those of your interested in the comments on currency denominations, there is a 500 Euro note. I suppose that is now the preferred currency to be used by organized crime. As an aside, Euro notes become larger as the face value increases. The ECB was years ahead of the Fed in their design of debt instruments, AKA money.
What about the unemployment rate if you exclude the big 3 "ground zero" states for housing issues? California, Arizona and Florida?
I'm asking to see what is the trend for the rest of the regions, without being distorted by data from these 3.
This is because it seems that my area at least (NE Pennsylvania), I'm faced with inexplicable full restaurants, full roadways and RE prices that are running UP (from an already high price!). Something doesn't add up.
In light of the Fed's more-or-less mono-maniacal fixation with crashing US interest rates in an impotent attempt to prop up the real economy, what should pragmatic US savers and international dollar holders do?
I'm talking flight to quality here folks.
As in away from US dollars.
What is the best store of value for the next fifty years?
Looking at the last eight years, it ain't US Treasuries (or, as I like to think of it, the only market left to fall)
What foreign currency or tradable commodity is poised to replace the dollar as a trustworthy store of value.
To a certain extent, one can see in the extremely rapid run-up in oil prices the substitution of barrels-for-bucks in terms of trusted stores of value.
But is oil really the way to go as a replacement for the dollar?
Wouldn't a diversified commodity bundle exhibit more stable value (because of lowered exposure to individual technological developments that might undercut international demand for a single given commodity).
Could a case also be made for a diversified currency bundle (a la SDRs) - less exposure to the monetary depradations of a single government (thanks US, for teaching us that lesson) while perhaps reflecting service economy growth in a way that a purely commodity-based store-of-value wouldn't?
Thoughts from the group?
Because, folks, it is past time to at least partially abandon the dollar.
(I mean more than it has already been abandoned...)
hc: "This is because it seems that my area at least (NE Pennsylvania), I'm faced with inexplicable full restaurants, full roadways and RE prices that are running UP (from an already high price!)."
Careful hc, positive comments like that could get you banned for life!
While folks are talking about large-denomination bills, has anyone thought of the ramifications of not changing FDIC insurance levels for I don't know how many years? 100k was a LOT of money in the 70's, now everybody's (well, not EVERYBODY, but a lot of folks) are scrambling to set up in many different banks, adding spouse's names to accounts, etc.
Not to mention that 10,000 used to be a lot of cash to take out of the country, not so much anymore.
first
Are we now down over 500k jobs this year?...back out the b/d and we are down much more
Anyone know what the b/d adjustment for this report was??
Second. Third?
Is this the line for Lottery tickets?
Moin from Germany,
"Anyone know what the b/d adjustment for this report was??"
Same as in the year 2007....
Very realistic.....
Here the Table CES Net Birth/Death Model
msn money has headline at the top that sez the 51k is good news and then headline further down that it is the highest in 4 years.
Is today Black Friday?
Anyone know what the b/d adjustment for this report was??
Mish said something about how January and July are revision months for the B/D numbers. If anyone knows exactly what that means I'd love to hear it.
Kinda makes that hawkish Fed rhetoric about inflation concerns a little silly, no ? Which could send the dollah back on its trajectory south.
When do we get the next rate cut?
CR,
Does your chart use a consistent definition of unemployment? I believe the government severely narrowed what is "unemployed". Because if you look at the U-6 (broadest definition -- includes "underemployed" + those with expired beneifts as well), we must have 10%+ unemployment.
During the '30s I believe the government used the equivalent of U-6 to calculate the legendary 25% unemployment numbers of the first GD.
So, look at the U-6.
How can teenagers claim unemployment in the summer? That factor for the rise in UE rates has been trotted out in recent reports.
Every Jan / July, the B/D adjusts for delta between what it adds/subtracts and reality of the prior 5 months. For example, say for Feb - June the B/D adds 100k jobs a month, while in reality 0 jobs were created. Then, come July, the B/D adjusts -500k to match reality. So even if the economy added 300k jobs in July, the headline number would be -200k (a LOSS of 200k).
That's why the jobs report lately usually craps the bed come Jan and July.
When does Rick Wagonner join the UE ranks? easily the worst CEO ever
The 4,000 number is not seasonally adjusted. The best way to estimate the effect on the seasonally adjusted payroll number is instead to look at average addition during the latest year, which is 71,000.
You keep on putting on your charts we're in a recession. How can we be in a recession if GDP is growing?
The data saying construction jobs are still being added to the economyas the B/D model contends is the case for Julyis absolutely no different from the glorious agricultural and manufacturing statistics put out annually by the old Soviet Union.
badger boy, the graph uses a consistent measure of unemployment. Some of the other measures have been changed - as you noted - but the headline number has been calculated consistently for the period shown.
Best to all.
OT-this could keep oil where it's at today, it's tied to employment somehow
Iran Heads Toward Nuclear `Breakthrough,' Israel Says (Update1)
Iran Heads Toward Nuclear `Breakthrough,' Israel Says (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
The comments from Mofaz, who also serves as transportation minister, echoed statements he made last month to the Jerusalem Post that ``all options are on the table. If there won't be a choice other than a nuclear Iran or a military option, it's clear what our decision has to be.''
Similar threats he made in June were tied then to a surge in oil prices.
badger boy, thanks for your excellent explanation.
Man, a blog with intelligent and well informed hosts and commenters. What a gem this blog is.
Bob - did GDp grow in Q4? No. Also, see Cr's post on what the NBER defines as a recession (and its not 2 q of negative GDP)
Bob - did GDp grow in Q4? No. Also, see Cr's post on what the NBER defines as a recession (and its not 2 q of negative GDP)
Seriously I thought a recession was defined as 2 q of neg growth by most.
"Similar threats he made in June were tied then to a surge in oil prices."
While I'm sure a politician would NEVER use his position to fatten his wallet, I'm nonetheless curious if this Mofaz has personal investments in the oil business.
Bob: 2q is common, but not the defn.
CRs post: What is a Recession?
Calculated Risk: Does a Recession matter?
bottom line: NBER is the final arbiter.
OT- Lehman to Sell $30 Billion in Mortgage Assets: NY Post
Lehman to Sell $30 Billion in Mortgage Assets: NY Post - CNBC
Lehman Brothers Holdings is in talks with prospective buyers to sell about $30 billion in commercial mortgage assets and other hard-to-value securities, the New York Post reported
The General Motors numbers have to be bad news for the entire mid west. More layoffs and cutbacks in the entire industry and they are on their collective asses now. Some of those states are going to be making big cuts.
Just an opinion, but likely most all of the private economists reports to industries predicted a first half slowdown with a second half 08 recovery. Employers in viable industries did not want to lose good employees as they are very hard to replace.
Now that we see that the "brainy guys" were wrong, you will see the really painful jobs cuts coming.
and other hard-to-value securities,
$0.
There. That wasn't so hard, was it?
Unemployment could get really bad if the birth/death model starts turning in a negative direction.
bottom line: NBER is the final arbiter.
JP thank you for the post. I couldn't find that link when I did a search.
JP
They meant "hard" as in "unpleasant". You are correct in your valuation. If you owned those securities, you would also consider them "hard to value".
Only 3.3% more before we exceed CR's worst case UE of 8%.
A $100 million used to be an impressive number,
A $1 billion was a shocker, but now losses in the billions aren't bad.
Before we know it, a $100 billion loss will be here and folks will accept that too.
And a $1 trillion loss is not decades away.
When will the U.G. government start printing $1,000 bills in volume and say goodbye to minting pennies?
Is there a $1,000 bill and has anyone ever seen one? You can bet you will and it will be a great deal sooner than everyones expects.
Badger,
You are either right, or close but not quite, depending on what you mean with you mathematical example. Your comment on the example (craps the bed) suggests close but not quite. BLS doesn't dump the entire adjustment for revisions into the January and July counts. It revises back months. The total in July may be lower by the entire adjustment, but so is the total for the prior month, so the change in July doesn't reflect the revision. Only the level does.
Curlydan,
The unemployment rate is draw from the household survey. The plug is for the payroll survey. The unemployment rate is unaffected by the plug.
By the way, isn't the timing of the Lehman announcment just choice? Same day as the FT waves around the Fitch warning that CMBS has trouble ahead. But you knew that, right, 'cause you read CR?
For Boat52:
Redirect Notice
Look at the duration of the sub-zero year-over-year change in employment line (the red one) from 2001 through 2003 - the longest period of subzero employment change on the chart.
1) The underlying real economy in jobs quietly rotted away for years,
2) The Fed held interest rates absurdly low to try and fight this,
3) The absurdly low interest rates sparked and sustained the housing bubble, and
4) The entry of ultra low cost Chinese labor into the world economy gutted the traditional relationship between low US interest rates and US employment growth - neutering the primary intent of Fed interest rate policies and in fact rendering them positively disasterous since they only served to feed the housing bubble.
Not to oversimplify too radically, but I think that is pretty much the economic history of the last 8 years.
History will puzzle at the Fed's ignorance of the China Effect and its insane willingness to hammer at the same single button that it possesses ("Drop Short-Term Rates").
In the face of the nearing entitlement catastrophe, an idiotic housing bubble fed by Fed stupidity was the last thing we needed.
This puts some color on this report...
http://corporate.monster.com/Press_Room/MEI/Jul08/US/MEI_US_Jul08.pdf
CAS127,
You give history a great deal of credit.
I've been thinking that CR's shallow recession/slow grinding recovery scenario is in some ways the worst outcome. Not only have we gotten used to relatively mild recessions the past 25 years, they've also been fairly short -- and followed by another bubble of some sort. A long slog will feel like Chinese water torture to boomers staring at retirement (if they can still afford it).
Who knew CR was the gloomiest doomer out there?
k harris,
Yeah. I kind of oversimplified it. I know B/D is an ARIMA model with some ungodly number of parameters. I also have enough of a statistics background that when I heard the number of parameters the B/D model had, I kind of snickered. The model would tend to overfit the data.
But, I think curlydan has a point: Since the B/D is a moving average model, it could impute in the wrong direction (theoretically).
O/T
Bankrupt home developer owes $131,000,000 declares personal bankruptcy
Bankrupt home developer owes $131,000,000 - Atlanta Business Chronicle:
That chart shows that the inadequacy of the current "recession" definition. Prior to the mid-80's the recession bars pretty much coincide with the large unemployment increases. That's as it should be. But starting with 1991, the recession bars are tiny slivers covering only the worst parts of the unemployment increases. This might be due to the GDP deflator changes - I haven't tried to analyze this - but clearly the current official definition of "recession" is too strict.
tranches - see my comment above. The last two recessions weren't really mild (they were pretty average) and they were both prolonged. The official definition of recession is misdescribing them. I agree though that if we see that kind of non-official but actual recession drag on for years and years it will be very hard on a lot of people. Turning Japanese indeed.
There you go again: dragging "reality" into our definitions again.
"The data saying construction jobs are still being added to the economyas the B/D model contends is the case for Julyis absolutely no different from the glorious agricultural and manufacturing statistics put out annually by the old Soviet Union."
I used to work for the press agency that published these figures in the US. There was a very uncomplimentary term in our shop for our readers.
From Wikipedia, for Boat52:
Large denominations of United States currency - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
At one time, however, it also included five larger denominations. High-denomination currency was prevalent from the very beginning of U.S. Government issue (1861). $500, $1,000, and $5,000 interest bearing notes were issued in 1861, and $10,000 gold certificates arrived in 1865. There are many different designs and types of high-denomination notes.
The high-denomination bills were issued in a small size in 1929, along with the $1 through $100 denominations. The designs were as follows:
The $500 bill featured a portrait of William McKinley
The $1,000 bill featured a portrait of Grover Cleveland
The $5,000 bill featured a portrait of James Madison
The $10,000 bill featured a portrait of Salmon P. Chase
The $100,000 bill featured a portrait of Woodrow Wilson.
And this quotation:
"Circulation of high-denomination bills was halted in 1969 by executive order of President Richard Nixon, in an effort to combat organized crime."
Maybe, now that organized crime is licked, they'll start reprinting those bills [/sarcasm]
"Man, a blog with intelligent and well informed hosts and commenters. What a gem this blog is."
That's why I read it too. There are smart, well-educated, independently-thinking people who can write in this venue - rare on the Web.
"The comments from Mofaz, who also serves as transportation minister, echoed statements he made last month to the Jerusalem Post that ``all options are on the table. If there won't be a choice other than a nuclear Iran or a military option, it's clear what our decision has to be.''
If Israel goes to war with Iran - then what happens?
What would the reaction be in Moscow and Beijing?
The door of doom may swing ajar. God help us if it does.
Didn't private eye Marlowe brag he had a $5000 bill?
What good does it do to gab about hitting Iran's nuclear assets? He must feel a verbal threat would accomplish something?
Did they just do it before?
What name did you have for your readers, Pavel? I'm dying to know.
"What name did you have for your readers, Pavel? I'm dying to know."
Not me personally. s---eaters.
I'll do my monthly pissing in the wind and mention that the headline unemployment number is called U3, that U6 is better when comparing to the rest of the world and the U6 seasonally unemployed percentage is 10.3%
Table A-12. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
-K
"What good does it do to gab about hitting Iran's nuclear assets? He must feel a verbal threat would accomplish something?"
Yes, of course, he must hope that such a verbal threat will be sufficient, or at least helpful. Everyone in his right mind must be very anxious not to let events get out of control. But when he refers to an 'existential threat', that sounds serious to me. Dr. Rice also made an ominous sounding comment this week.
It gives me the creeps, as I guess it's meant to. But I'm not an Iranian, and I have no idea how they're taking it.
Kurtyboy,
I read the Wikipedia article and was impressed with the fact that all the high value currency bills are now collectibles. Kind of interesting that they were all issued beginning in 1929. Maybe folks wanted money under their mattresses rather than in banks. I know there are large denomination Euros, I think maybe 500 Euros.
Is there a $1,000 bill and has anyone ever seen one? You can bet you will and it will be a great deal sooner than everyones expects.
Boat52 | 08.01.08 - 10:29 am | #
I'm tempted to say that you're on the money!
At the supermarket the other day I looked U.S. Grant square in the face as I paid for $29 in groceries. Let's face it, fifty is the new twenty, and Franklins don't cut it in a day when gassing up an SUV exceeds $100.
But I wouldn't hold my breath for bigger bills. Although intrinsically harmless (as opposed to, say, the falling dollar vs. the Euro or Yen), they would be political dynamite: an explicit and embarrassing admission that the world's largest economy is out of control.
BTW, $500 and $1,000 bills (depicting Presidents McKinley and Cleveland, respectively) haven't been printed since 1945 and were retired during the Nixon era, although they remain in circulation as collectibles.
Oops, I see that we were all going Wiki at once! However, my opinion, which is debatable, is mine.
regarding the large denomination bills, I seem to remember they were primarily used to transfer money from one bank to another. One reason they are no longer used (besides Nixon's decision to hinder crime) is that banks now transfer funds electronically.
I don't need large bills to gas my SUV because I use my ATM debit card...and so far, my 18 gallon tank has not cost more than $57 to fill...so far...
hey sk,
Brad DeLong is banging on the U6 drum as well - you are not alone!
Another Bad Employment Report: Brad DeLong Calls Recession
or if you don't want to register for Roubini's web site (no
, here is the link back to Brad DeLong's web site:
Another Bad Employment Report: Brad DeLong Calls Recession
There are $1 million bills. I saw them in a Scrooge McDuck cartoon.
"Emma Anne writes:
There are $1 million bills. I saw them in a Scrooge McDuck cartoon."
No, but there used to be $100,000 gold certificates.
Be careful with regards to Scrooge McDuck, CB still has the bear fangs he grew as I recall...
""Man, a blog with intelligent and well informed hosts and commenters. What a gem this blog is.
Sonic Seuss ""
Don't forget our posters that argue endlessly about who is posting 'first' on the blog.
Just sayi
Great graph and commentary today. I agree heartily with those who find this blog (and its commentary) one of the best around.
As part of a larger package of data targeting real estate market information, my team tracks 6 month rolling averages of employment growth (total nonfarm and by supersector) and unemployment for over 200 cities around the country - what's been amazing to us of late is the increasingly wide range between the best and the worst cities - we haven't seen this impressive a spread between the best/ worst in the five years we've been tracking data. In the midst of the doom and gloom there are some surprisingly strong employment markets (cities) out there.
Redfish,
Odessa is #1 - they will like that in their perennial competition with Midland - energy driven growth driven by activity in the Permian Basin. More of the white collar set living in Midland, more of the blue collar set in Odessa...no value judgement there, just sayin.
man that is some driving energy there lol
Agree with the poster above:
CR IS one of the best blogs on the net. Love it.
At least someone is telling the truth!
Keep up the great posts!
"Great graph and commentary today. I agree heartily with those who find this blog (and its commentary) one of the best around."
You see, they even know that the possessive of it is its, not it's.
For those of your interested in the comments on currency denominations, there is a 500 Euro note. I suppose that is now the preferred currency to be used by organized crime. As an aside, Euro notes become larger as the face value increases. The ECB was years ahead of the Fed in their design of debt instruments, AKA money.
What about the unemployment rate if you exclude the big 3 "ground zero" states for housing issues? California, Arizona and Florida?
I'm asking to see what is the trend for the rest of the regions, without being distorted by data from these 3.
This is because it seems that my area at least (NE Pennsylvania), I'm faced with inexplicable full restaurants, full roadways and RE prices that are running UP (from an already high price!). Something doesn't add up.
To raise a new topic...
In light of the Fed's more-or-less mono-maniacal fixation with crashing US interest rates in an impotent attempt to prop up the real economy, what should pragmatic US savers and international dollar holders do?
I'm talking flight to quality here folks.
As in away from US dollars.
What is the best store of value for the next fifty years?
Looking at the last eight years, it ain't US Treasuries (or, as I like to think of it, the only market left to fall)
What foreign currency or tradable commodity is poised to replace the dollar as a trustworthy store of value.
To a certain extent, one can see in the extremely rapid run-up in oil prices the substitution of barrels-for-bucks in terms of trusted stores of value.
But is oil really the way to go as a replacement for the dollar?
Wouldn't a diversified commodity bundle exhibit more stable value (because of lowered exposure to individual technological developments that might undercut international demand for a single given commodity).
Could a case also be made for a diversified currency bundle (a la SDRs) - less exposure to the monetary depradations of a single government (thanks US, for teaching us that lesson) while perhaps reflecting service economy growth in a way that a purely commodity-based store-of-value wouldn't?
Thoughts from the group?
Because, folks, it is past time to at least partially abandon the dollar.
(I mean more than it has already been abandoned...)
hc: "This is because it seems that my area at least (NE Pennsylvania), I'm faced with inexplicable full restaurants, full roadways and RE prices that are running UP (from an already high price!)."
Careful hc, positive comments like that could get you banned for life!
While folks are talking about large-denomination bills, has anyone thought of the ramifications of not changing FDIC insurance levels for I don't know how many years? 100k was a LOT of money in the 70's, now everybody's (well, not EVERYBODY, but a lot of folks) are scrambling to set up in many different banks, adding spouse's names to accounts, etc.
Not to mention that 10,000 used to be a lot of cash to take out of the country, not so much anymore.