S&P Downgrades Downey Financial

I dont think it can get any worse. the bottom is in therefore.

It seems we are able to lose the entire GNP of South America every week. (Apologies to South America).

Careful.....Ms Bair is still watching?

Downey is done. There's no way they can recover.

If I had money in Downey, I would get out ASAP. Who cares about the FDIC insurance...I would want my money now.

da, da, da.....another bites the dust.

No worries. DSL stock up 10% this morning. DSL Bonds 6 1/2% last traded at 61, up 6 points from 55. Buying these bonds at 61 cents on the dollar would give you a yield 14%.

you want you money now? forgettabouit
who would want paper money in a fiat based money system? it worthless in the bank or out of it. think germany ww1

There are no known bank closings scheduled for this Friday but that does not include sudden 'public panic' closings.

Run on Downey!
Run on Downey!

Are you watching Sheila?

DSL will be an interesting test of the limits of too big to fail. If the 2B2F policy extends all the way down to the likes of Downey we are gonna need a bigger bagholder.

I believe they called off the pizza & vino fest at the last minute.

This one is gonna go - tomorrow or next week.

Same result.

Have a nice day, Sheila!

NAR posted prices for Q2 today. Can we get nice charts?

Metropolitan Median Prices

I blame the evil bloggers and I'm sure Sheila agrees.

Dear Ms Bair
i would like to start a rumor. Downey is going down and everyone should rush to get their money out now.
Yours sincerely,
Somebody outside your regulatory control

Did jas make it to Bair's sh*t list?

Come and catch me if you can, Sheila!

I closed my account with DSL last week.

The FDIC must also face a looming pizza shortage.

Dear Ms Bair
i would like to start a rumor. Downey is going down and everyone should rush to get their money out now.
Yours sincerely,
Somebody outside your regulatory control

+1

Where is Sen Dodd on this?

Gosh, S&P is really going out on a limb this time. If Downey recovers they'll probably sue...

paper tiger hidden regulator writes:
Dear Ms Bair
i would like to start a rumor. Downey is going down and everyone should rush to get their money out now.
Yours sincerely,
Somebody outside your regulatory control

+1
paper tiger hidden regulator | Homepage | 08.14.08 - 11:49 am | #

Hehehe. Isn't it fun to be bad?!

Where is Sen Dodd on this?

Drawing up a new bailout plan and working on getting his mortgage rate even lower...

HOW about a "land Bank" failure??

A Scottsdale-based "land bank" has filed for bankruptcy protection in the midst of pending foreclosure action on hundreds of vacant lots it owns in Gilbert and Phoenix.

Taro Properties Arizona LLC and two affiliates, Taro Properties Nevada I and Taro Properties Texas I, filed for protection from creditors Wednesday under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code.

Taro Properties Ariz. files for bankruptcy protection

NY AG: JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley to buy back $7 bln of ARS

NYTimes 7:53 AM ET
Gross domestic product in the 15-nation euro area declined 0.2 percent in the April-June period compared with the first quarter, according to reports on Thursday.

You gotta love how JPM suddenly ups the size of their "perp" preferred from 300 mln to 1.6 B.

Then latter in the afternoon they announce that they are buying back 3 billion in ARS at a loss of 13% to par.

And that doesn't include the institutional holders and those with accounts more than 10mil.

Of course...

"JPMorgan Chase neither admits nor denies allegations of wrongdoing"

Gee, then why did you pay 25 million dollars in fines?

Japan, Canada, Now Europe... China is Next - hello global slow down/so much for the BRIC new found confidence ....

It's amazing that Europe and Japan are already contracting, but we're yet to see "negative growth" here where the mess originated. Are we just more clever at manipulating statistics than they are?

Repeat

Paul,
As it happens, I'm 100% cash {in more than one currency}. I'm not denying anything, I'm attempting to explain this market to myself. Let's take a case in point..... may I suggest TGT.
Granted TGT is repurchasing 20% of their outstanding; granted they sold 50% of their credit card portfolio 3 months ago and don't "need" cash. Given that TGT has a currently "out of date" model compared to WMT. Given that the consumer is strapped and about to be whipped.
Please explain to me how or why or under what set of logic, the price of TGT moves from $41/share to - and, I'm giving you a bargain here - $50 today ... in less than one week.
sparks | 08.14.08 - 11:52 am | #

Wow! DSL up by almost 13%. Who the fuck are the investors kidding?!

Will DSL survive after OptExp ?

I had wondered when the bell was going to finally toll for Downey.

BTW thanks to you CR and Tanta for your analysis and spot-on news, the boys club at the gym now think I'm brilliant. I wish I had known what a powerful aphrodisiac financial savviness is the male species before I got married.

Did I miss something? I was in the head with a bad case of material deposit outflow?

Is this really the end of Downey? Don't take it the wrong way, but they've survived far longer than they should have. So I've given up the system working on the timeline that it should.

So... anyone tracking DC pizza joints tonight? Wink

Got Popcorn?
Neil

why is the market going up today with all this bad news out there? maybe because everyone senses that the bottom is in.

As you pointed out the other day, Downey is already operating under some form of supervisory action, which, judging by the terms, is a "supervisory agreement" with the OTS. Perhaps S&P is referring to the impsition of a more stringent "prompt corrective action".

In any event, the OTS will be the agency initiating any additional regulatory actions. The only way the FDIC will become directly involved is if Downey is taken down, in which case the FDIC would be appointed receiver.

"Are we just more clever at manipulating statistics than they are?"

Not necessary, in the past 15+ years US economy was much more flexible then of their developed counterparts. Some attribute US flexibility to lesser government involvement, (pre bailout times).

ok... I didn't get an answer from Paul. So, I'll simply state my point. The nature of trade has changed here. Retail traders have retreated - active traders are only eating themselves alive or beating the "Quant boxes". Enjoy your feeding frenzy.

markets up bcse of crude...broke down to 113 again...

Crude Oil Chart 

OT:

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the largest sources of financing for U.S. home loans, each jumped more than 6 percent after the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association said larger loans financed by the two companies will be allowed in the main market for mortgage bonds.
U.S. Stocks Rise as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Spur Bank Rally - Bloomberg.com

cd

... with all due respect, TGT is not up 20% as the result of 5% change in crude.

Sorry if this is a repost

"California plan could be major boon to subprime lenders"

"One reason California still has no state budget is a closed-door dispute over a tax proposal that could be a multimillion-dollar boon to banks that engage in subprime lending.

The proposal, according to legislative sources and industry lobbyists involved in the private budget talks, was brought to the table by the Schwarzenegger administration at the urging of lenders and other corporate interests. The proponents argued that it would help offset costs to businesses that could result from other tax changes under consideration. "...

Or, how the lobby got to Republican legislators and are holding up the budget.

Subprime lenders may see boon - Los Angeles Times 

We apologizing for breaking into the regularly scheduled broadcast, but there is urgent news. The 2008 Bulwer-Littons are out.

2008 Results

May you all have a dark and stormy night.

There seems to be a change in the general mood indeed. Bad news no longer bring panic, stock declines, commodity run-ups and the US$ down. Quite the opposite if I look at the US$, gold, oil chart etc. Inflation really is yesterday's news. At some point we'll get another leg down though with the Alt-A wave hitting banks books late this year or so. And it will be more of a disinflationary wave, smiting commodities even more.
O-Joe

Let's see... Last week the dollar was pumped and metals fell drastically. I figured something would close Friday after the market. Could it be Downey?

Question: When was the last time anyone here tried to get a loan?

Curious

My father recently died and mom was conservator...Dads retirement et al went into a conservator account. Dad dies, BOA closes access to MOM who was conservator. Their Mortgage is with CW ala BOA, she needs to make this month payment but cant get to funds. Life insurance hasnt come in yet, her lawyer handling the estate says go to BOA ask for 90 day note for living expenses, here is some parework. Her FICO ~800. She walks into local BOA and they turn her down on 90 loan..I'm guessing personal loan. I'm guessing less than 5K....

Given BOA has conservator account where deposits are locked up for now, her mortagage and will be getting her subtantial deposit when LI pays off. I was surprised by the denial.

Mother has lived almost 70 years and never been late on a thing.

This scares me more about BOA future than my mom's...

curious-er writes:
It's amazing that Europe and Japan are already contracting, but we're yet to see "negative growth" here where the mess originated. Are we just more clever at manipulating statistics than they are?

Oh, come now, get with the talking points plan! That's just de-coupling at work! You know, the rest of the world - all those emerging markets - in Asia in particular - will just keep growing like gangbusters. They'll keep buying all those Japanese and German goods, as well as their own.

/snark

It's fun sitting around here being snarky all the time, but really, we should be worried that we're not watching the slo-mo start of another Global Depression. What happened in Germany as a result of the last prolonged severe depression should serve as a warning. Roosevelt had all those nice sounding programs, but it's pretty clear that he used the war to dig us out just like Hitler did for Germany. We really don't need another round of that.

Let's see... Last week the dollar was pumped and metals fell drastically. I figured something would close Friday after the market. Could it be Downey?
Grace

...Or could it be gold closing under $800? Somethings closing indeed Wink
O-Joe

Jumbo Conforming Mortgages Eligible for TBA Trades: SIFMA
Jumbo Conforming Mortgages Eligible for TBA Trades: SIFMA : HousingWire || financial news for the mortgage market

Can someone wake Tanta please??

Re: Rates and liquidity
But what about everyone else? The inclusion of jumbo conforming mortgages could end up raising conforming rates for all borrowers as traders price in the new loans, although HW’s sources suggested that the 10 percent limit was likely “just the right proportion” to keep the TBA market on track.

The concern, as it was explained to us, is that prepayment behavior on jumbo conforming mortgages is likely quite different in trajectory than what’s observed in more traditional mortgages; the liquidity of the huge TBA market is predicated on the idea that the underlying loans share the same basic characteristics.

Remove that assumption, and risk locking up the only secondary market for mortgages that’s still functioning right now; which is why SIFMA limited the higher-balance inclusion to 10 percent of a given pool.

Roosevelt had all those nice sounding programs, but it's pretty clear that he used the war to dig us out just like Hitler did for Germany. We really don't need another round of that.
Scott

So Bush was right to start the Iraq war to "dig us out" or does hee need to start an even bigger war like say WWII to really dig us out? If that's true, how come people are still opposed to Pres. Bush' wars here?
O-Joe

OptomisticJoe,

I'm new to this group, and I apologize if I have disrupted the conversation. To be frank, I'm not sure whether I've intruded on a real estate centric view of the world or whether I'm in the midst of traders who are over my head.
Suffice it to say that I think the nature of "making money in the market" - be it real estate or equities - options - futures - or however else you construe the world ----- has changed.

FirstBank to hold forum on FDIC
Experts will answer public concerns on FDIC
"FirstBank will hold a forum on current public concerns about the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. from 8 a.m. to 9 a.m. Saturday at the bank’s office at 73-000 Highway 111, Palm Desert. Participants will get an overview of how the FDIC works and have the opportunity to meet one-on-one with an insurance expert. The event is free and open to the public, but space is limited, and reservations are required.

Information: 836-3506"

(Expect more of this in the future.)
mydesert.com | Palm Springs | The Desert Sun

So many banks should have disappeared so far--it is amazing how long shit survives.

So Bush was right to start the Iraq war to "dig us out" or does hee need to start an even bigger war like say WWII to really dig us out? If that's true, how come people are still opposed to Pres. Bush' wars here?
O-Joe
Optimistic-Joe | 08.14.08 - 12:56 pm | #

Maybe not killing people is more important to most people than making money.

35k car loan, FICO 750-ish, 5.5%, 5 years. Absolutely no problem with loan 1 month ago.

sparks ,

Let the buyer beware!

I wish I had known what a powerful aphrodisiac financial savviness is to the male species

Yeah, and you don't have to worry about what team they follow or the uncomfortable undercurrents when you talk about sex. Let's see, money, sex, sports, sex, cars, sex, and food; 'bout covers it.

I'm new to this group, and I apologize if I have disrupted the conversation. To be frank, I'm not sure whether I've intruded on a real estate centric view of the world or whether I'm in the midst of traders who are over my head.

Both,...And wait until you see the late night crew!

Alarm,

WHAT BUYERS? {sorry, I'm given to ironic humor}

El Cliffo re: UNO

It might seem M&A vintage 2005 is showing signs of cracks.

"It was acquired in a leveraged-buyout in January 2005 by the private-equity fund Centre Partners and members of management."

It might seem that they want to walk away.

"Uno's decision not to make the payment reflects its tight liquidity."

And, why is this "tight liquidity" not "cant make payments"

"May you all have a dark and stormy night."

But it's only one o'clock in the afternoon.

I must say though that I'm relieved by Sec. R. Gates' statement that there will be no direct confrontation between Russian and US forces.

I guess we get to live through the end of summer.

Noted on the Bulwer-Lyttons. English majors will rule the world.

Maybe not killing people is more important to most people than making money.
TCA

I think the whole argument that wars help to pull nations out of economic downturns is flawed. Yet everybody thinks that's what WWII did to the US in the Great Depression. However, if this was true, then Pres. Bush did the right thing - at least from an economic POV and he should receive due praise for this like FDR.
O-Joe

Optimistic-Joe writes:
Maybe not killing people is more important to most people than making money.
TCA

I think the whole argument that wars help to pull nations out of economic downturns is flawed.

Joe,
It is for that reason Dante described more than one level of Hell.

sparks

I'm also new to this blog. (6 months, plus or minus).

real estate centric, absolutely! Check out the ubernerd columns for thorough analysis of the real estate and complex finance causes of our current economic train wreck.

I'm here studying, for the same reason residents of Mt. St. Helens studied up on their volcanology in the 80's.

The Doo,

Thanks, I think the fact it was a signature maybe is what kept BOA from doing this, I really dont know since she would have turned around a wrote them the check for the house payment, but considering they can see the money siting in the conservator account really threw me...

FDR started WWII? Fascinating. And GWB starts a war in '03 to combat an economic situation in '08 that he doesn't admit is happening (per an interview at the Olympics). No wonder the market is going up. Basic Time is out of joint as well as Logic. Call in the ChronoGuard and JurisFiction.

Talk about a mealy mouth. Hey, guys come out with it: Downey is headed down the tubes, give a week or two, maybe more, maybe less. You probly don't want to do nutin' since your money level is low and you can't afford to bail out many more banks, at least relatively large ones.

FDR started WWII? No, but he did stage Pearl Harbor so the US would come into the war. He met Churchill at Placentia Bay, C. told him the UK was toast unless the US got into the war by year's end since Hitler was sure to be in Moscow by then, so FDR got busy and drew up a plan to lure Japan into an attack that could be used to bring the US into the war. This is all quite clear now to people who know.

Downey's Texas ratio was 89 as of the end of March and is doubtless higher now so it's sure to fold. No way to survive baring a MASSIVE cash infusion that is not at all in the cards.

I think the whole argument that wars help to pull nations out of economic downturns is flawed.
-O-Joe

You've got that one nailed. Talk about malinvestment, especially this time around-it's "make work" on steroids. Not only have we dumped billions into Hummers and McMansions in BFE places, we are paying people $100K a year to drive supply trucks in the desert. Not to mention all of the fuel that's getting burned over there. I believe the Pentagon is the world's largest customer for fuel.

...or whether I'm in the midst of traders who are over my head.

possibly traders in over their (own) heads

This is all quite clear now to people who know. nothing.

Oh why does S&P hate America so?

umber2son: I loved your fascinating display of knowledge. So much to learn from you.

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