Whack-a-mole economy.

"Whack-a-mole Fed." Priceless.

Dave the Liquidity Slave.

"But I think it appropriate to view the Fed's actions over this period as what I believe them to be: A measured and logical sequence of steps to address very specific liquidity distress in financial markets."

aka Trying to clean up the mess that we allowed.

" A measured and logical sequence of steps to address very specific liquidity distress in financial markets."

Maybe next time try this one - An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure?

We needed Chicken Soup for the Economy and we got Alphabet Soup. I see the problem now.

Again with the liquidity argument. UGH! That is but a sympton of the insolvency problem.

On the Titanic the captain and crew also took action according to "a measured and logical sequence of steps to address a very specific liquidity distress".

Knowing the location of a lifeboat is not a bad idea. Worst case is you don't need one.

On a personal note, when I first started blogging (a long time ago!), Dr. Altig gave Calculated Risk some wider exposure...

Haha... I hope he's not regretting it now.

So, a measured and logical sequence of steps to deal with circumstances that were unusual and exigent.

Everything is well contained.

How droll.

"introduced an alphabet soup of new lending programs to address acute stress in financial markets, some of which required the invocation of emergency powers based on "unusual and exigent circumstances"

(please add) "... circumstances that we created by keeping rates way too low for way too long and not doing anything to regulate the securitized mortgage business"

You do have to give them points for creativity; if not for their actions thus far, we would already have had a systemic collapse.

I cannot really argue with their actions... Well, except for bailing out Bear Stearns. And failing to impose a penalty rate at the discount window / TAF / etc. Oh, and accepting garbage collateral marked pretty much at par.

Um, yeah. But other than that, I do "find a certain beauty to it all".

Maybe next time try this one - An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure?

Which is hideously ironic since the doctor basically advertised time and time again that we shouldn't worry about the disease since they had the cure.

As far as I can tell we're still waiting for it and all we've gotten so far is a big dose of arsenic.

"Further relief was provided by the TSLF, which in effect implemented a swap of in-demand Treasury securities from the Federal Reserve's balance sheet for less liquid mortgage-backed assets."

Oh, wait, I see. Mortgage-Backed Securities are "less liquid".

I suspect he is a medical doctor or a dentist.

OT: Market headed for another day of Gravity's Rainbow?

It is not entirely obvious that the new long-run level of the OIS-Libor spreads pictured above will once again converge to the values that prevailed prior to August 2007, but I would argue that the still-elevated levels of these spreads implies we have a ways to go before financial markets are again fully functional.

Re: The curve has seen a push flatter with the 2-10-yr yield spread running 145.7. Gold has been offered into the open with the spot now 828.18 (+1.38) from an early 837 level. Crude has a minor bid at 116.20 (+0.20). The numbers due CPI and initial jobless claims (8:30). Fed-speak has Stern talking late (14:30) and a $75B 28-day TSLF auction..

"But given a little time for perspective I believe we will find a certain beauty to it all."

Lest I be perceived as being too cynical on the point, I have to agree with a previous post that finds broad agreement with the actions taken. Indeed, the Fed has been nimble in managing a chaotic and complex unwinding in the debt markets. However, as Roubini and others have argued, the underlying solvency issues remain to be addressed.

There is a certain ugliness regarding these matters, many of which are yet to be fully realized.

"But given a little time for perspective I believe we will find a certain beauty to it all"

I am certain the millions who have lost their homes to f/c would appreciate this comment?

The recent inversion of the long end OIS/LIBOR continues to place pressure on convergence, and thus the slope is headed South!

I see an attempt to LOOK like they are being creative and precise in the implementation of their moral hazard.

But moral hazard is moral hazard, whether is gets delivered via shotgun or rifle....you're still killing the bastard.

Crane collapses in Quincy, Massachusetts.

What's with these cranes?

My MANY go-rounds with Dave A on funny-money loans are on record. I respect his opinion, & am also pleased he's back. I can't imagine how he'll find the time, but if he'll write, I'll read.

"Indeed, the Fed has been nimble in managing a chaotic and complex unwinding in the debt markets." - Northern Cali

What new usage of the word "managed" am I missing?

All the Fed has been successful at is in protecting bank balance sheets from acknowledging losses. Obviously (in retrospect) this was a classic case of entanglement. The prevailing theory at the time was that the crisis was temporary. That's why Kennedy set advisors to South Vietnam.

All this talk about perception, and expectations is masturbatory at this point.

By the seventh or eighth inning, a sucker starts to recognize a con. By the ninth inning he's street smart.

One needs to maintain close watch of fiscal deficit/GDP and net issuance. As usual, convexity relating to regression analysis suggests that worsening fiscal balances will eventually push the US Treasury curve cheaper relative to the swap curve. WTF do I know?

A measured and logical sequence of steps to address very specific liquidity distress in financial markets

I would think it to be more measured and logical for the Fed to have not sewn the seeds of this crisis in the first place.

How self-serving. Guy from Fed says Fed is measured. Truth is that it is now controlled by NY Fed and Wall Street. With hands deep in US taxpayers pockets while bailing out criminal banks.

What's with these cranes?

Contractors are rushing to finish projects before the CRE market collapses. Cutting safety corners.

Cranes don't kill people.

People kill cranes.

Northern Cali,

Exactly! we can keep putting cream cheese icing on it, but eventually the rotting cake will cease to exist and the icing collapses upon itself..or as in the liquidity case, the maggots simply eat the support from the inside out,,,,,

btw RobDawg is it possible to short the fed?

After two of the big three car companies, dozens of auto parts vendors, and several big airlines collapse, history will look back and judge whether the Fed was measured in driving oil and commodity prices through the roof.

When the PBGC goes bust picking up the pieces of these companies' pension plans and tens of thousands of retirees are left holding an empty bag, we'll see what history says.

We'll see if Europe comes out the other side of the global recession faster than the U.S., because they didn't panic and print money to throw at the problem.

Kao commented on a number of
important credit spread properties. The
volatility of credit spreads increases as
credit quality declines. Credit spreads
show mean reversion. Credit spread
changes are positively correlated with
changes in the slope of the Treasury
curve, with interest rate volatility, and
with swap spreads. They are negatively
correlated with changes in LIBOR, the
level of Treasury interest rates and
equity returns.
Credit spreads show higher volatility
for short-term than for long-term bonds.
The term premium itself is negatively
correlated with the slope of the Treasury
curve for both investment grade and
high yield bonds.

Matching the duration of the debt to
the duration of the mortgage pool
reduces risk in the debt financing of the
pool. It turns out that the multi-stage
model does a better job of matching
duration than does the single-stage
model. And where callable bonds are
used we can expect negative convexity,
just as we can for mortgages that can be
prepaid. Again, the multi-stage model
showed its superiority in matching
convexity over the single-stage model. It
also turned out that a strategy of simply
minimizing downside risk through
minimizing the duration and convexity
gaps (delta and gamma hedging) was
less effective than the multi-stage
stochastic programming in terms of
providing a superior efficient frontier.
http://introduction.behaviouralfinance.net/vol5_text.pdf

Negative convexity which is the charateristic of the attenuation of maturity due to interest rate decline, you are also correct that as rates go up mortgages don't necessarily go up in value so much as outperform bonds that don't have pre-payment risk and there are other factors involved, like years to maturity etc.

Cranes, Credit, same difference.

It is not entirely obvious that the new long-run level of the OIS-Libor spreads pictured above will once again converge to the values that prevailed prior to August 2007, but I would argue that the still-elevated levels of these spreads implies we have a ways to go before financial markets are again fully functional.

In other words, this mess isn't over, we are not done with rapid churning of asset class relationships.

Um, in other words, hang on tight, there will be more waves with more ships going down.

In stead of whac-a-mole, a better analogy would be who has the worst balance sheet and when will the sharks (hedge funds) attack to kill.

There is a tremendous amount of damage left to be inflicted as RETAIL finally shows the slowing of the us consumer.

All in all, the markets are showing their usual discontinuities.

After today's stinging inflation report, one would expect the bond vigilantes to be conducting a massive selloff, the problem is the folks long commodities and short treasuries are unwinding massive positions.

Kinda funny to see an inflation print yielding over 10% annual inflation and gold goes down.

Someday this war's gonna end...

@Contractors are rushing to finish projects before the CRE market collapses.

This specific (shipyard) crane was being dismantled after being sold... to Romania. MP, Dryfly, check your blood pressure.

"Contractors are rushing to finish projects before the CRE market collapses. Cutting safety corners."

I find the use of bamboo cranes especially troubling and dangerous.

When you find "beauty" in the pain of others, you have become a very insulated soul.

"especially on housing. Altig wasn't as pessimistic as me at the time"

CR, isn't "realistic" a better word than pessimistic. IMO, this blog is about reality not about pessimism. Let's face it the facts are what they are.

"Let's face it the facts are what they are."

Especially government facts.

Buy bonds!!

Rising inflation eats into the value of fixed income investments and signs of rising prices normally push bond prices lower. But the bond market was unaffected by Wednesday's report, partly because it is a lagging indicator, according to Bill Larkin, a portfolio manager at Cabot Money Management in Boston.

"The assumption is that inflation is not going to be a concern going forward," Larkin said. And a government report showing signs of improvement in the labor market, "more than offset the inflation fear."

The Labor Department reported that the number of Americans filing for state jobless benefits decreased by a seasonally adjusted 10,000 to 450,000 in the week ended August 9.

ROTFLMAO!!!!

btw RobDawg is it possible to short the fed?
- Dinner with Diana Olick

Buncha people tried. They went long commodities and look what that got them. It got them the oldest two lessons of investing.

  1. You can't fight the trend.
  2. Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

[Disclosure, lost a lot being on the wrong side of bond rates last year.]

Well even Happy Days had a turning point,

When will Ben suit up and jump the shark?

Everyone into bonds ASAP, get that price up and start a bubble on lower yields ..ROTFLMAO......good one there Larkin; maybe you can sell to Gross..LOL!

So, the spoiled brat kids (i.e., banks) left home and promptly overextended themselves, and now the parents (i.e., Fed governors) are covering for them by lending them their credit cards, all so everyone else won't know their kids are losers and they therefore are lousy parents.

It's only a matter of time before the kids take the parents down with them. That is, until the grandparents (i.e., US Treasury) step in with the world's biggest credit card.

An O/T but interesting observation. Many Banks seem to be gearing up the PR machine to address FDIC insurance and FDIC programs. Two recent and random news bites:

At The National Bank of Oak Harbor, (NBOH), the management and board of directors are aware of the recent news reports about the state of the FDIC insurance fund and the state of the banking industry.
The National Bank of Oak Harbor is not facing any of these issues

"FirstBank will hold a forum on current public concerns about the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. from 8 a.m. to 9 a.m. Saturday at the bank’s office at 73-000 Highway 111, Palm Desert"

de ja ....

The 30-year long bond rose 25/32 to 99 20/32. Its yield fell to 4.52 percent from 4.57 percent.
The 2-year note rose 1/32, and yielded 2.46 percent, down from 2.48 percent late Wednesday.
Trading was light, which tends to make movements more erratic.
"We're still range-bound in my opinion," Spinello said, referring to the range that Treasurys have bounced between over the past few months. He said that while bonds will remain beholden to oil prices and stocks, the ongoing problems in the credit and housing markets should continue to support them.

Meanwhile; Investors to money-market funds contributed $22.43 billion in the week ended Tuesday, bringing total net assets to $3.517 trillion, according to the Money Fund Report, published by iMoneyNet Inc.

Institutional investors contributed $22.02 billion, while individual, or "retail," investors contributed $413.9 million.

Assets in taxable money funds rose by $16.74 billion to $2.990 trillion.

meanwhile: The truth is even uglier than I suspected.

Auction-rate securities were sold by nearly all the big firms as a slightly higher-yielding, but safe, alternative to money-market funds. They proved anything but when the auction markets froze in February, stranding thousands of investors with more than $300 billion in illiquid holdings.
Auction-Rate Securities And the Ugly Truth - WSJ.com

Buy bonds and run the price up!!!

Now if we can only coaxe General Glut out of retirement. He had an interesting perspective for all the deflationists out there.

"Maybe next time try this one - An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure?"

Or ... An ounce of pretention is worth a pound of manure.

Is Pimco selling bonds or buying?

Pimco is long on foreheads.

OT

Developers are now resorting to auctions to move luxury vacation homes, properties that have generally outperformed the market throughout the steep real estate downturn.


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Eighteen getaways in the mountain resort of Kirkwood, originally priced from $1.5 million to $3.6 million and targeted toward the second-home set, will go on the block at a Palo Alto event Sept. 14. Some minimum bids will be nearly half the initial list price.

The two most expensive homes are ski-in, ski-out properties with five bedrooms in the Palisades neighborhood. Palo Alto developer Clarum Homes began marketing the pair this spring but has failed to land a buyer.

The demand for second homes melted away with the winter snow across Kirkwood (Alpine County) and the greater Lake Tahoe area, Clarum President John Suppes said. He hopes, but doesn't expect, to break even on the properties sold at the auction.

"Whack-a-mole Fed."

I am sorry, English is my 2nd language.

Can someone translate this in English? What the hell is he saying here?

"Whack-a-mole Fed."

I am sorry, English is my 2nd language.

Can someone translate this in English? What the hell is he saying here?
WAWAWA"

I don't understand it either. I think it has to do with masturbation.

How many homeowners in trouble don't have any seconds? that seems to be a mayor inconvenience for the housing bill to gain traction.

I don't understand it either. I think it has to do with masturbation.

Now, I feel better, I am not the only one!

Now, I feel better, I am not the only one!
WAWAWA

Are you saying you are not the king of your castle?

Banana republic

What is going on with Gold?

You may think that with hi inflation number out today, Gold would go up.

It does not make sense.

Wachovia's BluePoint Insurance Unit Files Bankruptcy

Wachovia's BluePoint Insurance Unit Files Bankruptcy (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
Wachovia Corp.'s BluePoint Re Ltd. unit, which insures structured finance and municipal transactions, filed for bankruptcy protection, citing defaults on securitized mortgages.

At least Banana Republics have bananas. [And usually some kind of Republic but let's not start that again.]

PETA recently asked for boycotts of all amusement parks and carnivals that operate Whack-A-Mole gaming units. In response, the amusement parks and carnival operators all began requiring employees to wear fur coats as a part of their uniforms.

Are you saying you are not the king of your castle?

I AM, I TRULE AM.

Allow me to share a personal experience with you fellows.

I (single, no wife, no kids) have been in the US for last 24 years 

My older brother (four years ago) came to see me after 20 years and on the 2nd day here he said to me. “WAWAWA you the KING of this house now, If you marry you become prime-minister, and if you have any kid you become a door-mat.

Do not marry and stay KING.”

And I following my brother’s advice Smile

WAWAWAWA,

So in english does your name translate to LALALALA?

Sorry that was meant with respect and visions of "A Christmas Story" dinner came to mind....

"A measured and logical sequence of steps to address very specific liquidity distress in financial markets."

This statement is amusing in that it sums up everything that's wrong with the Fed today.

They're living in this world of shiny white models and emotionless robotic humans.

Meanwhile the real world is this animal mob gone into a feeding frenzy where you can't turn your back without getting a financial knife in it.

The Fed is solving problems on a different planet than the one we actually live on.

In being so brain dead to social and psychological matters they've played directly into Wall Street's hands by giving them the just the predictable series of outcomes they need (thanks to the central bank's intervention) to cannibalize all the consumer wealth in the nation.

We need more and longer vacations.

No ac, we need more cowbells!

We need more and longer vacations.

ac

And don't forget more Cheetos.

WAWAWA was my dog who died suddently, and cherrish his memories.

Good Luck to all.

We need Zanex.

Your dog was named WAWAWAWA?

The US economy is in trouble because we aren't hearing from Henry Kaufman (formerly of Salomon Brothers). For many years during the 70s and 80s, he was quoted frequently, especially on radio, and he always said, "Interest rates are going up." And they did. He was right every time. When he stopped being quoted, interest rates stopped going up, and even went down.

I am sorry, English is my 2nd language.

Can someone translate this in English? What the hell is he saying here?

Clearly you have not played whack-a-mole.

Here's an example. Give it a try:

Whack A Mole

That's a funny name for a dog, but I kind of like it. Better than Tinkerbell.

I know what you whacked last summer.

Elvis writes:
That's a funny name for a dog, but I kind of like it. Better than Tinkerbell.
Elvis | 08.14.08 - 3:06 pm | #

So your dog's name is the same as your boy's?

We have an English Bulldog. His name is not Tinkerbell.

His name is Dog.

We have a cat. Can you guess what her name is?

The only thing the FED has done is take a bad situation that THEY caused and made it worse.

So your dog's name is the same as your boy's?
Ministry of Truth

This makes sense?

Now that so many people knew everything so much better than the FED, government and company management, why have you guys not prevented it? You should have made sure decades ago that you were in positions of responsibility, so it would have never happened. That's why you were all long $CRB until July 11th and then short, right?!

O-Joe

Elvis writes:
So your dog's name is the same as your boy's?
Ministry of Truth

This makes sense?
Elvis | 08.14.08 - 3:13 pm | #

It does if your boy is named Tinkerbell

I am in a position of responsibility that has allowed me to avoid the pitfalls of the Fed's irresponsibility. Most intelligent people realize by the age of 14 that working for the gov't or a quasi-gov't entity is foolish. I still believe this today. I guess if I didn't believe this, I would have saved the US economy, but, alas, it was not to be.

Now that so many people knew everything so much better than the FED, government and company management, why have you guys not prevented it?

Well people in (somewhat) prominent positions like Robert Shiller actually tried back in the mid 90s. And Alan Greenspan actually listened briefly until he started to see his popularity vanish before his eyes.

Alas I had better things to do at the time.

Alas I had better things to do at the time.

ac

Including watching reruns of Punky Brewster.

Financial Security Assurance Holdings Ltd. (the Company), a member of the Dexia group and the holding company for Triple-A bond insurer Financial Security Assurance Inc. (FSA), announced net losses of $330.5 million for the second quarter of 2008 and $752.1 million for the first half, due primarily to other-than-temporary impairment (OTTI) charges related to the Financial Products (FP) Investment Portfolio and loss expenses related to financial guarantees of second-lien residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS).

The FP portfolio is managed: (1) to minimize interest rate, liquidity and convexity risk by generally matching the asset and liability portfolios on a floating to floating basis and (2) to minimize credit risk through investments in high-quality securities. As of June 30, 2008, approximately 65.6% of the investment portfolio was invested in non-agency RMBS, 66.2% of which were rated Triple-A, with 12.7% rated Double-A, 7.8% rated Single-A and 7.7% rated Triple-B

You warn ahead of time==you're an alarmist

you point out the current problems==it's time to think of solutions not blame

you offer solutions==it's not politically feasible

you point to the history==that's all in the past, it's time to move o

Elvis,
my boy calls his "dog" wawa...

Hmmm...

Well isn't all of this special.

"I know that in some quarters—maybe the one where you reside—all this activity had a certain frenetic, whack-a-mole feel to it."

I reside in a solar system with a sun named Sol, in a galaxy called the Milky Way. What galaxy do you reside in? I hope it's the Star Wars one, cuz that's far, far away.

Cheers,

Misean,

Better invoke Bill Murray with that Star Wars theme.

"At least Banana Republics have bananas"

We have an abundance of corn. Cornhole republic.

On a personal note, when I first started blogging (a long time ago!), Dr. Altig gave Calculated Risk some wider exposure...

And now he works at the Fed... I guess no good deed goes unpunished!

Elvis writes:
"Whack-a-mole Fed."
...
I don't understand it either. I think it has to do with masturbation.

Elvis | 08.14.08 - 2:42 pm | #

Is this a 'Porky's' reference? The kid with the mole on his tallywacker?

American-centric economists like Altig failed to comprehend the credit crunch crisis miserably. Roubini, Roach, with a global perspective warned long before things were falling apart. Altig simply refused to acknowledge the formation of the housing bubble, justifying its rise every step of the way. And guess what he was promoted to the Atlanta Fed. The continuation of 'yes man' promotion is baffling. Remember Mike Brown at FEMA. And while he was there Countrywide stuck it to the tax payers with some 50-100 billions Federal loans.

Dinner with Diana Olick wrote at 303
we need more cowbells!


sorry the fed said they aint goin below 2 percent

no more cowbell

(i gotta have more cowbell)

even though like most here i'm angry as hell that the fed is co-dependent user of the white line of credit and an enabler of the criminal IBs... none the less i gotta side with Nemo at 141

...if the fed didn't bend over for the wall street gang we would have gonee wiemar republic...

of course then again, we wopuld have had pay back for the pigs, but many innocents get flushed along with them.

...but that was 2001-2002. Now that we've moved past liquidity problems, whack-a-mole seems quaint...this seems more like the movie alien...I can see what's next, so I am taking a fed job with a pension and lifetime health benes. Sincerely, Dr. Altig.

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