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first
Noel is a math teacher?
Didn't he have the companion textbook for Real Estate, the one with all the answers in it??
I know that is how my math teachers got by.
Ryancarz is a businessman?
Cheers,
I also have to wonder how many peoples actions were driven by fear.
At some point they had may have had realization that they were never going to be anybody, nor would they ever have anything.
A vision of a future that always included second hand cars, less than ideal living conditions. A daily grind that upon its end would deposit them on the shores of the land of catfood and gameshows. The end spent in a community room filled with depend wearing, babbling wrecks.
It may be most peoples reality but that doesnt make it any easier to contemplate. I wonder when the realization that hard work and frugality would actually pay off was lost in the collective psyche? Because I think that is also at work here.
Don't mess with the House of El.
Noel must watch those TV shows about flipping houses and real estate prices only go up. Think of it this way, Americans get fat watching food/restaurant advertising--and moronic "learning" about finance on tv. The idiot box was aptly named.
OT: Heritage debunks Krugman on Fannie and Freddie "Crony capitalism".
Morning Bell: The Left’s Crony Capitalism Explodes » The Foundry
This qualifies as some kind of Financial Darwin Award Category.
Heelarious link, Angry - thank you! At first I thought it must be a spoof, but it's even funnier knowing it comes from the Falwell brain trust!
There is the population of marks, and the population of scammers. If the "1 in 25" estimate in this account has some real substance to it:
Martha Stout - An interview with author
Inside the Mind of a Sociopath
How to spot a sociopath
then we shouldn't be surprised that a porous licensing and due-diligence hiring filter for the role of mortgage broker/loan officer has enabled a lot of people towards the "sociopath" extreme of the behavioral spectrum to be creators (and aggregators, and securitizers) of huge piles of putrifying mortgage debt. Like other "personality" classification categories, this one describes a "type", in perhaps extreme terms. In reality, for a population of several hundred million, we will find a spectrum of economic agents who range from the "pure sociopath" to the "purely righteous".
When credit histories are translated into credit scores, we probably get a decent proxy for position on this spectrum (far from perfect because of "credit score renting" and other score distorting scams, credit transaction record errors, and random events that disrupt the credit histories of even very careful and honest credit users). Reviewing the characteristics of sociopathic personality, one can readily see also why credit scores would be predictive of the incidence of claims incurred on other kinds of risks (e.g.,hazards covered by homeowners, auto, and professional liability insurance).
If we can grade borrowers on creditworthiness, we should be able to grade the other economic agents who are given a role in the credit conduits we use to move capital between borrowers and investors. No grading scheme will be perfect, but certainly we can do better than the Florida official who licensed so many felons to be mortgage brokers! When you put vampires in charge of the blood bank, how can you be surprised when the blood inventory shows some serious shortgaes AFTER SEVERAL YEARS OF WILD PARTYING BY THE VAMPIRES?
"Conservatives had been warning about the systemic risk Freddie and Fannie posed for years"
where? when? have you ever watched cnbc?
Maybe I try to ignore most stories about unscrupulous mortgage brokers, but this seems to be the first time I've noticed the write identifing a mortgage broker as a "mortgage salesman".
Not that the title isn't apt. This guy would have fit right in at Mitch & Murray.
Been reading the blog for years, but never commented before. Wonderful work; invaluable; you've made a great contribution to the nation.
My response is to the declaration that real estate is just like any other business, and people who expect to put nothing down and make no loan payments and strike it rich are delusional.
I don't disagree completely with that sentiment, but honestly, a few years ago it really wasn't uncommon at all for people to get rich doing just that. I can't count the number of friends who were absolutely appalled at my disinterest in purchasing overpriced real estate. People who were not financial braniacs but rather staggeringly average were indeed getting insanely high mortgages with no money down and reselling them within 30 days and walking away with $50K. I mean, I personally know people who are absolute morons who did this. I did not, because at some point I knew the music would stop and people would be left without a place to stand much less sit, but it's not fair to wag a finger at people who relied on banks (I mean, seriously, who would ever have expected banks to be in the business of making loans that would never be paid back?) to tell them what was a sound financial move.
I would argue that if anybody was guilty of magical thinking in this whole mess it's the free market cultists, the people who argue that regulation is unnecessary because no businessman will make a bad product, since that would damage his future business, and the checks and balances of the invisible hand would do things like, I don't know, keep banks from making loans they knew could never be repaid....
Bear, have you been living in a cave lately?
Google 'FM Policy Focus' and read some of the items that come up. A good place to start is:
http://www.wattsconsultinggroup.com/columns/FMPF%20Politico%20Article.pdf
The WSJ has a good index of articles going back a few years too.
tomasyalba,
I often find myself wondering whether ordinary evangelists understand just how badly they were treated by the GOP they put in power. I don't happen to know evangelists, and have been sorely tempted to attend one of their services just in the hopes of meeting someone who would explain their views on the past 8 years. As I assess their values from afar and put myself in their place, I would be livid.
I just went naked short LEH
i assume it's naked, cause no one would be stupid enough to lend shares to my 'on the razor's edge' broker
Gruntled,
For what it's worth, I fully agree.
If it's to good to be true well it is. I had some one the other day explain a scam to me the other day and they thought about investing in it. You could earn 400% per year, I just looked at them and asked if they were nuts. I don't know if they did any way.
jo6pac
The race to the bottom continues
Orange County, Nigeria! Hysterical.
He's 45? He looks 65. Crime doesn't pay.
PT Barnum said it first - there's a sucker born every minute, and another one to take him. That'll never change.
Web pages that highlight their links in grey make me feel stabby.
The thing about the Ryancarz story is that even though I know he's the victim, his behavior and the last quote of the article just make me want to smack him upside the head. I'd love to hear the story of how he managed to end up running a business that could afford to let a customer rack up $1.2M in bills.
I read the OCR story and only one thought popped into my head: Just how did Ryancarz have money in the first place?
I'm thinking inheritance...
...but it's not fair to wag a finger at people who relied on banks (I mean, seriously, who would ever have expected banks to be in the business of making loans that would never be paid back?) to tell them what was a sound financial move.
Ah, well the key bit is that the banks did expect to be paid back, they just expected the borrower to have to sell the property to do so. They weren't making loans so that people could buy a home, they were flipping by proxy.
It's great to see that everyone is eager to root fraud out of the system these days, but all the tightening of lending requirements might be going to far.
What are people with low incomes and no savings supposed to do in order to buy a home now? It's as if the financial industry is just dooming a generation to the perils of tenancy, forever unable to grasp the reins of home-ownership. After all, you can't really participate in the American dream without owning your own home.
People have a right to home ownership...
(I am being a little sarcastic here, but I just wanted to articulate the sentiment I am hearing in social circles.)
Sniglet,
You had me going there for a moment...
Yes, Noel, real estate is a great business,...for the people who sold to you.
Sparks,
A good listen and read by an evangelical on the topic of appropriate relationships with the political sphere is:
Christian Video, TV Ministries, Joel Osteen, TD Jakes, Joyce Meyer, Beth Moore
and
The Moody Church
Another title worth checking out is:
Moody Church: Hitler's Cross
Bear,
A good read on Fannie and Freddie in today's WSJ is:
WSJ Error Page - WSJ.com
You do have a right to own a home you can afford. What's the problem?
Noel is a math teacher.
A math teacher who specializes in irrational numbers!
The simple fact is that there are plenty of situations in which "blaming the victim" is the logical and reasonable thing to do, as the "victimization" is able to occur ONLY as a result of much-greater-than-normal stupidity, self-deception, greed, and/or general self-destructive behavior. By all means, go after the perps like Osborn and sling their sorry asses in jail, but no culture is healthy when the terminally dumbwhatever the race/class/income/education parameters may beare excused from taking responsibility for the consequences of their own actions. And I say this as a so-called "liberal" who won't be voting for the old wrinkly dude in November.
You do have a right to own a home you can afford.
What about the right to get rich through real-estate appreciation? Isn't that in the constitution somewhere?
{x}= 1 OR -1
Absolute value - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
nope, it's not
sparks,
As a conservative Christian I can tell you that my pastor preaches, "I'm not going to vote for anyone who supports abortion...". Abortion just about superseeds everything. Since we are in California the gay marriage thing has also gets my pastor riled up.
Although I agree with the sentiment, its hard for me as someone who understands our democratic republic and Constitution understand how politically these two issues is going to go the Church wants them. I'd rather the government get out of the marriage business completely, and I think this is a better church position... as no-fault divorces have destroyed the whole "sanctimony of marriage".... banning gay marriage in the name of upholding the value of marriage just seems hypocritical... why did we allow the value of marriage to be trampled on?
I doubt Roe v Wade will ever get over-turned and I think the real "battle" to be fighting is to ensure that young kids have parents and role models in their lives instead of placing so much faith in politicians. Politicians who are dirty enough anyway.
sdtfs,
The problem is that a lot of folks who had few prospects of prospering were being told that this was the "ownership society", and, as they looked around, by golly, start up money was actually available; being used by friends they knew. Sure it was a risk, but - oh please .... if you honestly don't understand or are unable to empathize.... that's entirely your personal problem.
Tanta, you're actually being too easy on these guys. There is an old adage that goes something like "an honest man can never be conned." That is absolutely true here (and in most cons). A con works because the "victim" is led to believe he can make lots of money by just bending the rules but not doing anything "really" illegal. It cannot work on a mark who is unwilling to bend the rules. This is not "blaming the victim" -- these people were willing participants in what was obviously shady business because they thought they could get away with it.
Say goodbye to 1271 trade around number.
Okay, taken' this one way off-topic because I wanted to respond to sparks.
I also heard at my church, "all debt is bad except mortgage because homes are good investments". Although we've had people say, "all debt is bad" as well.
davenyc said: "Ah, well the key bit is that the banks did expect to be paid back, they just expected the borrower to have to sell the property to do so. They weren't making loans so that people could buy a home, they were flipping by proxy."
I strongly disagree. When my wife and I opened up a joint checking account with Bank of American in 2005, I jokingly suggested to the manager that I wasn't sure we should trust them with our money since they were making these crazy mortgages. He responded, "Oh, we sell those immediately on the secondary market. We have no exposure at all to any bad mortgages." I literally dropped my Coke can. And replied, "So you have no incentive at all to conduct any due diligance on these loans?" And he looked extremely uncomfortable and said, "Well, I wouldn't say that." Yet that's exactly what he said. And it's true; the banks offloaded (or thought they offloaded) all the risk to the "invesment community" and with zero risk, hey, take all the money you want dude. It's not my problem.
Dad, why do you go to the Reich-wing websites for your opinion?
sparks,
You have a right to own a pencil, a pen, and a Kindle,...just not a 1.5 million dollar one. I keep hearing people who seem to feel that you have to be able to own a million dollar home; no,... you have a right to bid on that one dollar home in Detroit. No one would deny you that right. Some how we're confusing "rights". You have the right to life,...just not a right to a wealthy life. But you do have that right.
You have the right to life,...just not a right to a wealthy life.
Not even a healthy life, although some tend to think otherwise.
I had a televangelist friend (sorta)of mine proclaim how he was starting a fund at his church to buy up foreclosed properties.
Of course, he also told as a part of his standard spiel about how he prayed over his dog that had been run over by his wife (accidently, one assumes) and "infused the Holy Spirit" in the dog until it got up, shook itself off, and walked away.
(Not, presumably from any of his foreclosure properties.)
Pfft!
wow, I'm more amazed that the first guy managed to keep a business afloat given his inability to do even the simplest due diligence.
secondly, the teacher story doesn't surprise me, they will let anyone teach these days.
YSLP,
As I attempted to say in a post that didn't get posted for some reason, I respect the fact that you hold different views than I do. At least that is one part of the American dream that we actually do share. The right to understand the world in a way that makes sense to us, as individuals, and to express our different views.
I would honestly enjoy the opportunity to understand your views better - so long as you respected my right to a different view. However, this is not the forum for that kind of discussion.
I thank you for your effort.
BE BOLD
blue rigdge, i don't think your pdf proves your point. in fact, it kind of doesn't prove your point.
I was responding to Angry renters post regarding "OT: Heritage debunks Krugman on Fannie and Freddie "Crony capitalism"."
The article states things like:
"Apologists for massive government intervention in the economy have been spinning Freddie and Fannies failure for months."
"Conservatives had been warning about the systemic risk Freddie and Fannie posed for years. But responsible legislation to reform the government-sponsored entities was defeated by Freddie and Fannie liberal allies, especially former Walter Mondale and Barack Obama campaign adviser James Johnson."
I said where and your reply is FM Policy Focus? I looked them up. 2 million is alot of lobbying and they are CONSERVATIVES. They are part of the problem.
"...House Representatives, Republican Watts became chairman of FM Policy Focus (formerly FM Watch), Washington, D.C. In this new role, Watts wants to make FM Policy Focus a top player shaping Congress' policy decisions on the GSEs. For those who don't know, FM Policy Focus is a coalition of financial services and housing-related trade associations working with affordable-housing and consumer advocates, taxpayers groups and financial institutions on GSE policy matters.
Mortgage Banking asked Watts about FM Policy Focus' recent name change (a change unveiled on May 13, 2003--the same day he accepted the chairman's job). "Four years ago, issues with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were not remotely on the radar screen of policymakers," says Watts."That has changed because FM Watch spent its first years raising awareness of the problems of GSEs, and it did a spectacular job. Now that the awareness has been raised, we want to direct the organization's energies toward advocating specific policy prescriptions."
J.C. Watts'' new focus. | Goliath Business News
Lobbying Spending Database-FM Policy Focus, 2008 | OpenSecrets
GM brings back employee pricing promotion
Gm still has employees?
i thought they were all contract workers now.
I'm waiting for destitute pricing.
This about sums it up....
"You Made A Big Impression On The Führer" - Dealbreaker - A Wall Street Tabloid - Business News Headlines and Financial Gossip
Funny stuff.....but once you think about it it's not so funny...
Ciao
MS
YSLP & sparks,
I thank you both sincerely for having a reasoned, respectful discussion that was actually enlightening. The degenerate politics of wingnut/moonbat namecalling has corrupted American discourse, perhaps not permanently.
OT
" Commercial real estate prices as measured by Moodys/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices (CPPI) declined 3.3% in June. The June index was the fourth consecutive month of negative returns, and the Moodys/REAL CPPI is now showing a negative return over a two-year time period. The index stands 11.8% below the peak in October 2007."
Change from previous quarter, National:
Apartments -7.1%
Industrial -9.3%
Office -5.9%
Retail -4.6%
"Unsurprisingly, transaction volume in the first half of 2008 is down significantly as compared to the first half of 2007. Transaction volume has fallen in each of the first five months of the year."
The only thing amazing about this is how well it demonstrates the time productive people casually fritter away.
I dunno, the notion that TGT is holding near 50 given all the problems they face, just amazes me. I shorted them yesterday and already covered. But there is a level of buying interest in their stock that is beyond everything I've been able to find out about the company.
This is on the Kitco metals site:
IMPORTANT NEW NOTICE: Due to market volatility and higher demand in the entire industry, we are anticipating delays in supply of all bullion products. Please note that you can continue to place orders and prices will be guaranteed; however, cancellation fees will still be applicable regardless of the length of the delay. Consequently once inventory is received there may also be delays in processing and shipping by our vaults.
Live Market Quotes
And the price continues to drop.....WTF??
Ciao
MS
MS, it's not like buyer's of bullion are buying in bulk, or are getting great prices.
buying thru them is a suckers' game.
you , of course, know that if you buy thru NYMEX, and request delivery, you still only get a PAPER certificate that you own gold, and that it's still held at a depository.
Ryancarz has all this money to pay Osborne for various up-front lawsuits and fines, he could've given all that money to his future step daughter so she wouldn't have to refinance.
The article begs more questions than it answers. I shouldn't have to take this stuff on faith.
I think this was an old Law and Order episode topic.
I don't buy through them...merely pointing out a pretty obvious disconnect.
I prefer having it physically since what good is it if it's still a piece of paper?? Not much IMO....
It's for the "oh shit" moment that is coming....
Ciao
MS
bailey, do you object specifically to the loss of productivity spent in maintaining the courteous exchange of ideas supporting a democracy or simply the time spent in commenting on a blog?
YLSP,
My wife and I will celebrate our 32nd anniversary this year [ unless she really pisses me off - which is another story ]. If you're still here, I just wanted you to know you weren't talking to a person who is totally on the fringe.
Trade well..... think... and trade well
Gruntled: The other half of "If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is," should be "If it IS that good, then it can't last." It sounds like YOU'VE internalized this, but really, shouldn't we all have realized this by now.
And of course NOBODY expected the borrowers to carry the crazy loans to term. They expected them to REFI, preferably in the first year or two so that they'd pay a significant penalty.
Maybe the gold bullion owners won't sell until the price goes up. It's like homeowners not selling, because they believe the "real" value of their house is higher than the current market price. That gives you no inventory, even as the price keeps going down.
Noel must watch those TV shows about flipping houses and real estate prices only go up.
When I was 15, I learned that real estate prices hadn't gone up in my South Side of Chicago neighborhood in the last ten years. When I was 22, they still hadn't budged. I can't imagine Harlem was too different. But why let actual experience trump a TV show?
Hmmmmm
Folks that scrimped and saved get to watch their savings vanish in a poof of inflation while their fellows availed themselves of beautiful women, beautiful homes, manly vehicles, trips to exotic places, social acceptance only to lose it.
There is a lesson here.
Couldn't Koslovic have refinanced by just by getting listed on Ryancarz credit card?
There are just scam prone people. A friend who works retail had a customer who was complaining that his bank had closed his account, given him his money back, and wouldn't let him open a new one. She was appalled, but then when he went on and on about how they were cheating him out of money that he was going to make on a business deal. She recognized it as a scam immediately, he got angry when she said so, and could see why the bank wanted nothing to do with him.
It's only shortly after 11AM. TGT has traded over 6M shares and is still toying with $50/share. There is buying interest out there that I just don't understand.
I would argue that if anybody was guilty of magical thinking in this whole mess it's the free market cultists, the people who argue that regulation is unnecessary because no businessman will make a bad product, since that would damage his future business, and the checks and balances of the invisible hand would do things like, I don't know, keep banks from making loans they knew could never be repaid....
I agree to an extent, but I think the regulatory cultists are just as guilty. No need to do any due diligence because the magical regulators are on hand to make sure nothing bad ever happens anymore. The free market cultists say "Nobody's fault but mine" whereas the regulatory culstits say "It's never my fault." Reality is closer to the former than the latter.
my dad was one of those 'victims' who participated (repeatedly) in his victimization. He lost $ millions over a period of decades, not in real estate but in penny stocks mostly traded on the Vancouver stock exchange. He always thought he was about to get fabulously rich and that he was one of the select few to be whispered inside information about the untold wealth that lay beneath all that moose pasture. I told him that trading on inside information is illegal and that he was being conned. But he was going to get rich and the fact that not everything might be quite on the up and up didn't bother him too much. Besides, who would you expect him to listen to - his son with a math phd (and not acquainted with the bare-knuckle world of business) or The Pez? No contest there.
Sadly, as a result my parents became destitute in their dotage, depending on me to keep their mortgage current and their heat and lights on. And my dad never recognized his role in his financial ruin, preferring to blame the crooked stock promoters or the heartless banks for foreclosing.
sparks , young grasshopper...
There is buying interest out there that I just don't understand.
so much to learn, and still so confused
Russ,
With all due respect. The regulatory cultists just saved you butt, unless [ like me ]you were short at the time]. If "Nobody's fault but mine" were the rule, Bear Sterns and many many many more would be in bankruptcy court right now ..... and I would be rich.
And he looked extremely uncomfortable and said, "Well, I wouldn't say that." Yet that's exactly what he said.
And you STILL opened a checking account with them anyway.
Um, except how much have we seen much of the regulatory cultist actually standing tall, beating their manly chests and avowing "Nobody's fault but mine." I thought that crowd was off whimpering at the feds for free cash (and stronger regulation).
How about a cognitive ability test as part of all future loan apps?
U.S. Producer Prices Surge More Than Forecast in July (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
No inflation there....
U.S. Producer Prices Surge More Than Forecast in July
..........
dp-
the banks are already in trouble. Don't make it tougher on them.
Tanta,
Today's Ultimate DARWIN Award.!
NEWSRADIO - 1290 WJNO
Note:
Financial stocks are dropping like rocks world wide. Another exciting ride on de roller coaster. Wheeeeee..
Sparks-
You have to see it for what it is....It's most likely being propped to allow for an exit. Look at Amazon last week.....up 9 bucks on "revised" Kindle projections......I travel all over the country and I've never even seen one..
The "analyst" that revised the numbers likened it to the Ipod. AMZN in the process of giving all that gain back with pretty heavy volume on it's rise.
Bill Miller must need some coin as it's basically a hedge fund that happens to be a retailer.
See through the BS.....If you are right it's usually for more than just one trading day....
Ciao
MS
OT
" Commercial real estate prices as measured by Moodys/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices (CPPI) declined 3.3% in June. The June index was the fourth consecutive month of negative returns, and the Moodys/REAL CPPI is now showing a negative return over a two-year time period. The index stands 11.8% below the peak in October 2007. "
Posted this yesterday, but thought it would be good here again, since it shows banks willingly being defrauded today:
A condo conversion project is on the verge of foreclosure. Zero units sold in seven months. Suddenly, when every other area unit is down 40-50%, this place manages to sell half a dozen units at 150% more than comps. Mysteriously, the developer sells these high prices units, while resellers in the complex can't find buyers at lower prices.
Banks are still part of this crap today! How is this possible?
Link:
http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2008/08/16/business/z49597e3f40b4acfc8825749700767894.txt
Russ said: "
And you STILL opened a checking account with them anyway."
Yeah, the FDIC accomplished its mission.
Can we take at least ONE lesson from all this?
MONEY UP FRONT is almost, nay... always, a BAD IDEA. Run when people ask for money "up front".
Maybe it's about time to drop the word 'victim' when describing people who lied about their income, assets, or intention to occupy the property on their mortgage applications?
A better term might be 'co-defendant'. Then, a jury of their peers might have the opportunity to assess the validity of the 'I didn't read what I was signing' defense.
As far as Noel the math teacher goes, don't forget that the Long Term Capital fiasco was brought to you courtesy of a couple of Nobel laureates.
By the way, how's Downey doing? BankAtlantic? Has Freddy gone under yet? Fanny is treading water somewhere, glub glub....
If God had not intended them to be sheared, he would not have made them sheep.
On a personal level, I try to act as a moral person, & hope most others do the same. But my "faith" in my own chosen worldview of human nature sure as hell should never have become any bank's business model!!
Hasn't the primal doctine of "banking" -- its guiding First Principle-- always been a cognizent acknowledgement of the universal truth that-- given the opportunity-- People Will Lie To Get Money??
I agree with Gruntled's comment: "I mean, seriously, who would ever have expected banks to be in the business of making loans that would never be paid back?".
I also agree with Davenyc's comment: ""They (*banks) weren't making loans so that people could buy a home, they were flipping by proxy.".
Both comments don't negate the truths in each other.
from time immemorial the definition of "banks" is one of hard-nosed, cynical, skeptical, flinty, tightfisted, "verify your ability to repay me with interest 17 ways from Sunday, before I will ever loan you one red cent!" moneylenders.
Whodaeverthunk banks would've collectively abandoned that first principle, "People Will Lie", en masse? In the short space of a few years?
To those of us who still twinge when ripping "Do Not Remove" tags off pillows, it's a marvel beyond talking dog status that banks would ever, ever just take people's word for it that "sure I can & will repay this mortgage".
The "cognitive dissonance" is mindcrashing.
I can only imagine the hordes of crusty old lending pros who one day circa 2003 found themselves staring at an approved loan file and first laughing out loud and then rapidly questioning their own sanity. Going to their supervisor & saying "Have I just gone nuts or does this thing say "approved" on it?" & the supervisor smilingly delivering the Monty Python line-- "Oh no dear, you're not crazy. It's just that everything you know is wrong."
On a personal level, I try to act as a moral person, & hope most others do the same. But my "faith" in my own chosen worldview of human nature sure as hell should never have become any bank's business model!!
Hasn't the primal doctine of "banking" -- its guiding First Principle-- always been a cognizent acknowledgement of the universal truth that-- given the opportunity-- People Will Lie To Get Money??
I agree with Gruntled's comment: "I mean, seriously, who would ever have expected banks to be in the business of making loans that would never be paid back?".
I also agree with Davenyc's comment: ""They (*banks) weren't making loans so that people could buy a home, they were flipping by proxy.".
Both comments don't negate the truths in each other.
from time immemorial the definition of "banks" is one of hard-nosed, cynical, skeptical, flinty, tightfisted, "verify your ability to repay me with interest 17 ways from Sunday, before I will ever loan you one red cent!" moneylenders.
Whodaeverthunk banks would've collectively abandoned that first principle, "People Will Lie", en masse? In the short space of a few years?
To those of us who still twinge when ripping "Do Not Remove" tags off pillows, it's a marvel beyond talking dog status that banks would ever, ever just take people's word for it that "sure I can & will repay this mortgage".
The "cognitive dissonance" is mindcrashing.
I can only imagine the hordes of crusty old lending pros who one day circa 2003 found themselves staring at an approved loan file and first laughing out loud and then rapidly questioning their own sanity. Going to their supervisor & saying "Have I just gone nuts or does this thing say "approved" on it?" & the supervisor smilingly delivering the Monty Python line-- "Oh no dear, you're not crazy. It's just that everything you know is wrong."
csd,
Good link...the FBI should be all over that. There must have been a kickback to the WaMu loan officer to make it work. Here's some red flag quotes:
"The buyer of record, Julie Cottam of Escondido, said she never provided any money for the condo and did not know she briefly owned a unit in the Brookhaven complex. She said she signed some documents as a favor to a friend, Nancy Renfeldt. "I don't know if it was a deed. I just trusted her; I was a friend," Cottam said, adding she never planned to buy the condo."
Signing documents for a friend...brilliant...
"Renfeldt didn't return several phone calls from the North County Times seeking an explanation of the transactions and other questions. John Meadors, reached by phone, characterized himself as only "an investor" and referred all calls regarding the condo sales to Nancy Renfeldt, whom he said had stopped taking his calls."
Gee, I wonder why?
"The buyer who broke Brookhaven's long sales drought was Maria Roberts of Tijuana."
No explanation needed there...
Read the whole thing...it'll make your head explode.
Annonymous,
The only one I can think of who might be looking for an exit is the Pershing Group { I may have misspelled that}. But they are the very ones who encouraged the company to sell their credit receivables. Obviously, the company partially adopted that course. But look at the price where Pershing came in. It doesn't make sense that they would bail here; unless they know something about the 1/3 of gross income derived from credit card receivables that Morgan Stanley doesn't.
.... and incidently, Bill Miller retired.
hopeinsd:
YouTube -
Ciao
MS
sorry!-- I don't know why that repeated--
"Bill Miller retired"
So Legg Mason's stake in AMZN retired along with him???
much to learn young one.....
Ciao
MS
Anonymous,
Correction..... It should read, "...unless they know something about the 1/3 of gross income derived from credit cards that JP Morgan doesn't."
Expired
PPT is warming up the helicopters...
If you know of any naifs who like to read fiction, introduce them to Balzac, where they'll find an exhaustive gallery of rogues and the fools who keep them happy.
No one finishes La Cousine Bette or Sur Catherine de Medici with a childish world view intact.
Anonymous,
It is with the recognition that something odd was happening that I decided to exit the trade {thank you very much for the profit}. So far as I am concerned now, TGT can drop back as far as I think is reasonable or hold here. As for me, I'm just looking to stay ahead, greed is a real monster.
Anonymous,
I didn't mean to suggest that Bill Miller went out to pasture. I only meant he ceased taking a salary from TGT.
This is like, totally about:
Victor Lustig (January 4, 1890 March 11, 1947)[1] was a con artist best known as "the man who sold the Eiffel Tower."
Victor Lustig - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Tanta you rock, dude.
burnside,
Right on...the works of Balzac are very relevant today; he nailed the psychology and human impact of the cyclical nature of market-based economic/social systems. Also, he was very good at illustrating corrosive effects of greed and fear. I recommend "Old Goriot" as a good intro to Honore de Balzac.
OT: Why is oil up so much today?
Bear sez,
"I said where and your reply is FM Policy Focus? I looked them up. 2 million is alot of lobbying and they are CONSERVATIVES. They are part of the problem."
Your argument seems to be "If they are spending a lot of money on lobbying, they must be conservatives, and thus part of the problem". A better retort would have been the observation that Fannie hired ex-special prosecutor Ken Starr to threaten the congressional oversight committee that was about to expose the Fannie execs compensation plan (with its strong dependence on "managing earnings").
But the constellation of liberal stars with deep GSE connections (and current BO campaign advisers, unless he has thrown them under the bus lately) like James Johnson, Franklin Raines, and Jamie Gorelick, is the counterfactual to Krugman's assertion that the Fannie/Freddie implosion rests in "conservative" laps. In truth, it is a mark against the entire Beltway "doing well by appearing to do good" mentality, practiced, pace former Enron-adviser Krugman, on a large scale in both of the Centrist Rome-on-the-Potomac Imperial Farties). Both factions use OPM extorted via taxes or threat of taxes (a much larger sum) to subsisize the favor seekers who give them the best deal for getting and holding onto power to be the gatekeepers for all this largesse.
The reason "conservatives" will be clobbered this year is that their former conservative supporters sent them to put a brake on this cozy little arrangement, and they joined it instead. The liberals who sent their favor seekers in the hopes of getting more favors, of course, will be happy to see this. But the jig is about up, as they will discover in the collapsing financial ruin they have done so much to create.
This all is about what I now refer to as a "Generational Tsunami of Shit" /©/®
OT: Why is oil up so much today?
curious-er
Because it is expected to be the most popular selling Christmas gift for the holiday season?
Kung Fu,
Different trading styles fit different people. I look at long term considerations and find them interesting at best. It's just a difference in perspective. Obviously, the big trend is down in this market, and it's smart to consider why and how far..... just don't fall in love with the concept; because right when you start to feel the full embrace of any belief like that.... the market will turn on you... and that, my friend will feel very very bad.
OT: Why is oil up so much today?
curious-er
Because a new article came out suggesting it will be the most popular holiday gift this year?
Sweet. Double posts. (I didn't think the first one made it, so I refined the second answer.)
Elvis, both were appreciated.
NoVA:
At some point they had may have had realization that they were never going to be anybody, nor would they ever have anything.
I saw your conclusions; and while they contain a grain of truth, for most Americans, the problem is the opposite end of the spectrum.
Welcome to the New Casino Economy.
Video moment: YouTube - Apocalypse Now - Helicopter Attack- Kilgore
sparks at 12:12....
WTF????? Bill Miller taking a salary at TGT???
All I can say is....wow.
CIao
MS
I'll admit from the outset that I'm not very smart, or at least I'm not rich yet. I just have my little view of the market on which I am very focused.
I'm writing this note, because I see so many posts that are focused on the "big picture" of what is happening to our society and economy. It is my sincere hope that you are hyping some real world position and that you are not risking savings on propositions like that.
It's just my humble opinion, but I don't think you will make money for long with that point of view. I genuinely wish you the very best of luck, but I don't the the market works that way.
oops, I left out the most important word.... please add the word "think" to the last sentence.
"Nonetheless, it's hard to prevent certain kinds of fraud against homeowners..."
Eugenics.
I wish they had the contact information for Razwhatever. I got a bridge in Brooklyn I'm looking to deal cheap.
Cheers,
"In truth, it is a mark against the entire Beltway"
this is true. please note my response was for a specific article.
i would disagree this is the reason republicans are getting the boot this year. imo, the number one reason is the bush admin. and the rubber stamp republican congress. number two is the economy but for most of america, the housing crash isn't the cause of their problems.
The "casino economy" is what drives working people toward the Republican Party. It's the rosy belief that the people running the Club will someday let you in. Only a few people get in, but YOU'RE one of the lucky ones who will. (White hillbillies, Protestants/Baptists, and middle-management suckups alike have all become convinced they are The Ones.) Little do they know that membership in the Club is illusory.
Not to say the Dems aren't running their own racket, but that's how this particular racket - the GOP one - has always worked.
misean-
he can put it on the swamp he bought last year.....
Ciao
MS
Bear,
The housing crash is the root of all evil. Always blame things on the housing crash and people will understand. Example:
"So how'd your thrid date go with Trixie?"
"She didn't put out."
"That little tease. Why not?"
"The fu*(ing housing bubble."
"Yes, of course."
Whoops "The fu*(ing housing crash."
"Why is oil up so much today?"
Because the hedges have the short the dollar, short financial, long commodity trade back on. Must be the only game in town.
the housing crash is the root of all evil...
money is the root of all evil.
or is it, greed is the root of all evil?
or is it, satan is the root of all evil?
I think it is satan's mom.
Stupidity is the root of all evil and that's a fact jack.
SEC's Cox is going to be implementing new short selling rules. Gotta love it! Get long the equity market now!
"There were warning signs, even early on. The first loan Osborn delivered for Ryancarz was bungled, resulting in much higher payments than Ryancarz had expected.Osborn blamed the problem on his boss.
Ryancarz said he called Osborn's boss, but the man wouldn't speak to him, so Ryancarz believed Osborn."
Yep, that's damn smart, that's what that is. I can't tell you the number of times I'd buy something that was one price (lower) when I got it from the salesman and higher at the counter. You gotta stick with that salesman when that happens.
It's also a good idea to use an umbrella in an open field during a lightening storm.
Cheers,
are you sure it's not the demons?
anybody know a good exorcist?
I have a new phrase for the bulletin board that resides over my computer screen. It goes like this: "Greed is a true Monster, information is your true friend; if you can't find the information that you need, trust the trend.... there is information there as well."
MS,
Damn he's already got some? I got some of that "water front" property to unload myself.
Cheers,
I'm pretty sure it is satan's mom, Helen Reddy.
Now there's a good theological question Elvis brought up. Do angels (even fallen ones) have mothers? On the other hand, if we're having problems at the root level, I suggest a hard reboot. Especially if daemons are getting involved. del . move on.
I thought I was the root of all evil? At least that's what my mom used to tell me...oh and the Nuns at school...oh and Father O'Leary...and the neighbor kid's mom.
I'd certainly rather blame it on the Housing Crash...or Satan's Mom...I'm not THAT particular.
Cheers,
I saw an ad from DiTech offering to help people who are in a bind with their ARM - the fox is cleaning up the henhouse.
scav,
Hmmmmm...
I thought it was
cd /
rm -Rf *
Cheers,
sorry. DOS snuck back into the working vocab.
curious-er,
My WAG is the dollar tankage today is the main driver, as the big unwind of short dollar/long oil pair trades is done or at least taking a breather...check out DX.
Tanta thanks!
Don't have time now, I'll read thoroughly later. But one question I'm going to be pursuing for my own knowledge. The truth in lending act requires full and fair disclosure on mortgages and there are severe penalties for not meeting that standard.
Does the liability extend from mortgage broker sharks to the banks who immediately buy their loans? Mortgage brokers are likely judgement proof, either bankrupt or fled. But most banks are not, yet, bankrupt.
Misean,
Wouldn't scav just clear the FAT and leave all that crap out on the disk - or was the low level reformat you threw out there?
There are 10 things that are never funny: DOS jokes, and binary jokes.
OT, however, con artists know that desperate people make bad decisions. By the way, I just received this email. Sounds like a good deal:
Having consulted with my colleagues, and based in information gathered from the Nigerian Association of Realtors, I am pleased propose a confidential business transaction to our mutual benefit. I and my colleagues have in our possession instruments real estate formerly held by my dead uncle...."
Well, I joined into this conversation to learn something. And, I must say, I certainly have. There are some very very very bright people here. I have gained several useful websites and a better understanding of your insights.
I have genuinely enjoyed virtually all of the conversations we have exchanged. However, my thoughts are clearly out of place here. You folks are intent upon an already decided general direction for this exchange of ideas.
I thank you for having taught me. It is my hope that you found something helpful in the ideas I expressed. I genuinely wish you all well, and I will continue to watch what you have to say. However, my thoughts are clearly out of place here, and I need to move on.
trade well my friends.... think .... and trade well
You must mean DOS IS a joke.
energy,
rm -Rf * is a unix command. That particular command is fairly dangerous when run as root.
Cheers,
Large U.S. Banks May Fail Amid Recession, Rogoff Says
Large U.S. Banks May Fail Amid Recession, Rogoff Says (Update5) - Bloomberg.com
The worst is yet to come in the U.S.,'' Rogoff, a Harvard University professor of economics, said in an interview in Singapore today.The financial sector needs to shrink; I don't think simply having a couple of medium-sized banks and a couple of small banks going under is going to do the job.''
GOT SKF?
i missed skf and srs.
better late right..
one interesting factoid I came across today is that the population is expected to grow another 140 million in 40 years... This has to suck up some of the excess inventory of housing. Things are looking up.
http://pewhispanic.org/files/reports/85.pdf
"SEC's Cox is going to be implementing new short selling rules. Gotta love it! Get long the equity market now!"
Bizarro
I wonder if the new rules are going to be so innovative they will be the old rules.
The top U.S. securities regulator plans to propose new short selling rules in the next few weeks.
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox said on Tuesday that the proposal "will focus on market-wide solutions" but is not intended to have any impact on the direction of prices.
Cox: SEC to propose short sale rule in weeks
| Reuters
Uh-Huh
WSJ - Bond yields hint at corporate bankruptcies /Key index identifies 72 issues in distress; banks seen hit hard
"We are forecasting 110 banks with $850 billion in assets to fail by next July. That's eight times the FDIC's total reserves," says Chris Whalen, managing director of Institutional Risk Analytics. "The next president of the U.S. is going to have to create a vehicle to buy banks that we can't sell after they fail."
Bond yields hint at corporate bankruptcies - WSJ.com
Who the fu_k fronts 1.2 million unsecured to a client?
1.2 million.
In todays environment, I wouldn't front 1.2k. without a first trust deed.
There are so many people that are going to get wiped out and whose lives will be irrevocably changed in the next two years.
"SEC's Cox is going to be implementing new short selling rules. Gotta love it! Get long the equity market now!"
No wait it will go lower and that way everyone will say double bottom. The bottom is in buy, buy, buy or be priced out forever while Cramer is having an orgasm on TV and all that stupid crap.
Bank Stocks Headed to Zero
MOST READ: Bank Stocks Headed to Zero | Stockpickr | Financial Articles & Investing News | TheStreet.com
FFDIC,
Always the cheery, sunny good news.
I'm going to go jump off the top of the building now.
Cheers,
rm -Rf * is a unix command. That particular command is fairly dangerous when run as root.
Cheers,
Misean | Homepage | 08.19.08 - 1:14 pm | #
I knew a guy who, as root, executed the following command inadvertantly:
rm -rf /
Luckily, the admins had very reliable backups!
Somebody please explain how we can continue to have negative interest rates. Don't interest rates have to be higher than inflation rates?
TCA,
LOL.
I accidentally typed:
chmod -R 777 /
I hit the enter key at that point.
I meant:
chmod -R 777 /home/guest
Good thing I had good backups too.
Cheers,
Yoikes Misean - you play without a net with all those -Rs, don't you?
well, maybe I was thinking more of the -f if it does what I think it does. -Rs can be unavoidable.
john stumpf,
wells fargo 33 billion in Level 3 assets (holy s**t)
Doesn't know what a Siv is...
I once represented a husband and wife who were scammed out of a mortgage and into a lease by someone who was in jail. The jailbird sent them an index card that said he could help them with the foreclosure they were facing and to give his girlfriend a call (she was on the outside). He found their names in the newspaper when the bank filed the foreclosure suit. He made the owners tenants, sold an ajoining plot for a quick 20k profit, and as soon as they missed a lease payment evicted them. I filed for bankruptcy, used a fraud provision under the bankruptcy code, and saved their home. The Judge was amazed at what the guy could do from a jail cell to people facing foreclosure. Showed me how desparate people become when they are facing foreclosure.
scav,
-f Attempt to remove the files without prompting for confirmation, regardless of the file's permissions. If the file does not exist, do not display a diagnostic message or modify the exit status to reflect an error. The -f option overrides any previous -i options.
Yep, I play dangerous. I also log on as root. :-0
Nuff *nix talk.
Cheers,
"Apologists for massive government intervention in the economy have been spinning Freddie and Fannies failure for months."
"Conservatives had been warning about the systemic risk Freddie and Fannie posed for years. But responsible legislation to reform the government-sponsored entities was defeated by Freddie and Fannie liberal allies, especially former Walter Mondale and Barack Obama campaign adviser James Johnson."
Centralized management of economies has such a poor track record I just don't understand why people continue to defend it like it's some kind of panacea.
It's not even a matter of ideology -- people take a strong interest and think carefully when managing their own affairs; not so much when managing the affairs of others.
When you let party A manage party B's affairs, they usually do so in a such a way that they just transfer wealth from B to A without regard to the well being of B.
Yet we always think when we do it somehow it will work out better.
"This time it's different."
the crappy deals of types like Noel's inflated prices in NYC like there's no tomorrow.
i am hoping RE here will crash soon!!! there's a big lag of time in Manhattan for FC houses to go into auction as i understand.
does anybody here know the foreclosing process in Manhattan well?
Unix. Explains the beard.
seems like we are having a bit of DOS hi jinks.
ac,
Yeah, that's why they want to extend centralized planning to healthcare (i.e., "single payer").
ac,
Nicely put. I have no time to make those arguments right now.
tj,
Cheers,
the population is expected to grow another 140 million in 40 years... This has to suck up some of the excess inventory of housing.
Only if these people bring their own jobs with them, and are so productive they can afford to pay a 70% tax rate. Otherwise, I hope they are bred to enjoy living under bridges.
ac,
This time is not all that different. In the end, it will be a bit easier to get a dinner reservation at the club. And Lord knows, they need to stop fighting over tee times. But in the end ac, it doesn't matter what the rational was... it was just getting a little too uncomfortable having to deal with all the new club members and all their bling and bragadocio.
Don't for a minute think they don't already know how far it goes down or when it ends. This is a revolution from the top down; not the bottom up.
O.Kay, I couldn't just watch and shut up. Big Deal.
FFDIC-
You notice how most of the "bad" stories that happen to slip by the editors at the street.com are almost always written by..."the TSC Staff"
I saw that this morning and had a great chuckle..especially the part about "while we won't go into detail about the big firms...."
Ciao
MS
Misean,
Prime 1170
PDP-11
Are we talking on Arpanet?
Now I feel totally old.
Thanks.
Someday this war's gonna end...
AC,
It is with respect that I ask you to show me I'm mistaken.
Insofar as I have directly challenged AC, allow me to consolidate the issue:
ac writes:
"Apologists for massive government intervention in the economy have been spinning Freddie and Fannies failure for months."
"Conservatives had been warning about the systemic risk Freddie and Fannie posed for years. But responsible legislation to reform the government-sponsored entities was defeated by Freddie and Fannie liberal allies, especially former Walter Mondale and Barack Obama campaign adviser James Johnson."
Centralized management of economies has such a poor track record I just don't understand why people continue to defend it like it's some kind of panacea.
It's not even a matter of ideology -- people take a strong interest and think carefully when managing their own affairs; not so much when managing the affairs of others.
When you let party A manage party B's affairs, they usually do so in a such a way that they just transfer wealth from B to A without regard to the well being of B.
Yet we always think when we do it somehow it will work out better.
"This time it's different."
sparks writes:
ac,
This time is not all that different. In the end, it will be a bit easier to get a dinner reservation at the club. And Lord knows, they need to stop fighting over tee times. But in the end ac, it doesn't matter what the rational was... it was just getting a little too uncomfortable having to deal with all the new club members and all their bling and bragadocio.
Don't for a minute think they don't already know how far it goes down or when it ends. This is a revolution from the top down; not the bottom up.
O.Kay, I couldn't just watch and shut up. Big Deal.
sparks writes:
AC,
It is with respect that I ask you to show me I'm mistaken.
sparks | 08.19.08 - 2:51 p
George Bush's record as a student, military man, businessman and leader of the free world is one of constant failure. And the part that troubles me most is he seems content with himself.
He will leave office with the country $10 trillion in debt, fighting two wars, our international reputation in shambles, our government cloaked in secrecy and suspicion that his entire presidency has been a litany of broken laws and promises, our citizens' faith in our own country ripped to shreds. Yet Bush goes bumbling along, grinning and spewing moronic one-liners, as though nobody understands what a colossal failure he has been.
I fear to the depth of my being that John McCain is just like him.
Forgive me AC, don't consider this as a personal attack. I perceive you to be a person of reason.
How could you send $ and do business to that extent with someone you've never met in person?? victim, indeed.
Let's see. Large companies good, large governments bad. Apparently that's all one needs to believe anymore.
Not that I'm agreeing with it. See earlier statement about need for hard reboot.
Sniglet wrote:
It's great to see that everyone is eager to root fraud out of the system these days, but all the tightening of lending requirements might be going to far.
First they piss and moan about the "evil banks" lending with no downpayment and/or DD, then they piss and moan about the banks being cautious and actually determining if someone can or will pay the money back. You just have to laugh at the idiocy of it all.
Hockey fans say:
Fed Backstop sucks.
SIV! SIV! SIV!
diogenes; Beware the snarky comments that lurk and linger amidst the honest (often quickly read?) remarks.
Irony mark - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
As a Cornellian '83 who camped out for season hockey tickets that is beautiful.
The problem with buyer beware, laissez-faire, "free market" arguments is that they are as utopian as Communism, Anarchy, Libertarianism, etc. Of course there can be too much regulation. There will always be too little. Yes, Ryancarz and Noel should have been smarter. Noel could be Einstein, and Ryancarz might be a very productive, hard working person. Jimi Hendrix was the finest musical genius in a generation. But he was easily duped and manipulated by "smarter" managers who took advantage of him. The litigation over his music in his lifetime and involving his estate (died 1970) continues to this day and comprises MILLIONS of pages. He should have done did his due diligence, but when he signed all those contracts in New York before making it big in London he was still a starving musician who had to rely on the business world to spread his message. Of course he was guilty of wanting to be rich and famous. Even though he never finished high school he should have realized you can't sign record deals with multiple entities. So what.
Even savvy posters who see through Bank of America's laughable business practices don't have the time and resources to read the fine print or shop around for the perfect bank. So they rely on Government regulators to insure a fair system, and the FDIC provides a backstop allowing a level of trust. Due diligence costs lots of money, despite Chicago School economists assuming it away. Updated regulation will always be needed, and a mixed economy will always be the most "efficient". The emphasis, however, should always be to punish the frauds and protect the naive.
how did this moron own a business and have a mil to loan. seriously. inherited $? i see no other way.
I can haz ryancarz muney plz?
You can't becauz despite your superior wit it's just possible that he worked hard for decades at some task he knew really well, could be plumbing supplies, and some smooth talking parasite got there first.
Gruntled,
I would argue that if anybody was guilty of magical thinking in this whole mess it's the free market cultists, the people who argue that regulation is unnecessary because no businessman will make a bad product, since that would damage his future business, and the checks and balances of the invisible hand would do things like, I don't know, keep banks from making loans they knew could never be repaid....
Incorrect! A market can never prevent stupidity. People can be staggeringly stupid, so some level of stupid activity is the norm. Rather, proper incentives should tend to destroy those who make numerous stupid errors. Which, as it happens, we're seeing now.
Older lady sits next to a younger man on an airplane.
Older lady: Where are you going today young man?
Younger man: I'm going to a Unix convention.
Older Lady: Gosh, I didn't know there were that many of you.
Y'know, he's not a bad guy and I love him to death, especially during the tickle behind the ears thing.
But here I am, my head feels like a bomb went off inside it and I'm not even sure most of my body actually works, and I gotta listen (remember my hearing is 50x as sensitive as yours) to this effing mumbo-jumbo BS as I try to get my systems back on line.
I'd have liked to lie there for a bit longer, at least until my eyes were actually focusing again, but I just had to leave.
Uh, yeah. If you look thru the comments some of those "stupid people" were the commenter's friends, and in one case it was his father.
You really want them "destroyed"??? At least the Canadian doesn't have to worry about health care.
Dog,
You really want them "destroyed"??? At least the Canadian doesn't have to worry about health care.
%$#& happens. If people aren't allowed to make mistakes and suffer consequences, they'll never improve.
Also, I don't know them from Adam. My look-out isn't the outcome for his buddies, but the general effect and the effect is has on moi. I was gonna say if you want a friend, get a....but anyway.