I'm hearing that GSE tightening is impacting volume. FHA is a rapidly growing segment of the purchase market. I don't think it's as likely to double app (there's more loyalty towards a known DE underwriter). I wouldn't be suprised if FHA ended up being close to half of the purchase market.
Mortgage "applications" suffers from the same problem that "mall traffic" suffered last Christmas in predicting retail sales. It ain't who's lookin' it's who's buyin'.
Someone the other day was saying this is becoming rampant. To me it sounds like an urban legend much like how Tanta described "walking away".
Walking away and renting (or moving in with family)is definitely not urban legend. However, I have not seen one real example of someone buying something less expensive with the plan to walk away from their existing obligation. I'm not saying it never happens, I've just never witnessed it. I can't help but thinking that the term "rampant" is quite a stretch.
Gadzooks! People can't get loans so they just stop applying. How Un'merican. The people need to get that can do attitude back and get out and apply for loans for chrissakes.
Mortgage application volume fell last week to the lowest level in nearly eight years. The Mortgage Bankers Association says the business is down 61% from this year's peak in February.
Not only are fewer new homes being built, but fewer people are refinancing existing mortgages.
Just yesterday, the Commerce Department said July construction of new homes and apartments fell to the lowest level in more than 17 years.
One of the downsides to the this economic downturn is that as the CR site takes over the world, many won't know who Sebastian, AheadofTheCurve or OJoe were, as they have tucked tail and run. Perhaps we need a wiki page with some of their best quotes so that we can reference that. Probably worth putting Conjure Bag on there as well. And some of Tanta's best zingers. And maybe a squirrel recipe. Or some Casseroled Pigeon.
The second quarter economic growth likely picked up more strongly than initially reported. In the advance gross domestic product (GDP) report released at the end of July, the Bureau of Economic Analysis assumed that trade contributed 2.4 percentage points to growth -- already the largest contribution since 1980.
Manitoba Bowlers Association.
When construction of bowling alleys goes down, the mooses (meese?) get very distraught. This causes ripples throughout the economies of North America, eventually causing Americans in the lower 48 to become too depressed to apply for mortgages.
slow...slow....like a giant ship, the continuing decline.
It's amazing that it takes so long for it to be obvious to a preponderance of possible buyers what the real picture is. I guess the NAR tricks work pretty well.
Yes! In addition it would be nice to have a reference capability like Yahoo's message board, where you can click on a name of a poster and go back to see previous posts. Unfortunately, that would not work well for posters like Kona and Total Crap, et al, who have dynamic identities; nonetheless, if a person wants to see all the topics from a specific era, one would see these types of comments associated with stable names.
I want me a "Long Pig - It's what's for dinner (perhaps you shouldn't have borrowed so much to buy that crap in your house you are underwater on but i'm glad you mostly eat organic because i prefer my longpig organic)" bumpersticker.
But, then again, I'll have no problem eating squirrel. I actually look forward to it. We are too soft. I've never been hungry enough to think that eating some intestines seems like a good idea. I see that as a character flaw.
LandCap JV to buy Wachovia loans: report
| Reuters
A joint venture created by LandCap Partners is buying $40 million of troubled land and construction loans from Wachovia Corp The Wall Street Journal said.
I wonder what mp's cookbook would offer...... the chapter heads would be interesting, if nothing else...... what would he choose as the other white meat.....
CR, you wrote: Although we can't compare directly to earlier periods because of the changes in the index, this does suggest that sales of homes are continuing to decline.
If you're still reading and haven't thrown your hands up - "Oh great, another thread blown to bits."
What's the relevance of the changes in the index? Do they mask more a robust decline?
many won't know who Sebastian, AheadofTheCurve or OJoe were, as they have tucked tail and run.
You know those guys continue to read, and credit must be given to them for having the incredible discipline not to post anymore.
You know they are desperate to continue to defend the indefensible.
Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac-two incestuous Appalachians sodomized by Wall Sreet tychoons leverage, falling asset values. It is all a grand plan to REMOVE securitization from the weak(govie) and place it in the hands of the strong. The taxpayers will be left holding the bad debt and new, lower risk securities will be packaged by the stong global financiers
The pres, or other honcho of Fannie was on NPR, the Diane Reims show (spelling?). He was so smarmy and slick it made me want to throw up my squirell breakfast. (Well, McD's said it was ham, but who knows.)
He was asked some moderately hard questions by Diane and the callers-in.
But, to ignore the very important water-cooler aspect of all threads momentarily, I wouldn't mind hearing more about why CR and others think this number is suddenly becoming a valuable index again. The "why not" issues were explicitly covered in the post and he mentions changes in the index meaning we can't directly compare periods (which?) to 2002 and I admit to not knowing what these changes are -- are they are actual changes in the definition itself or simply linked to CR's ambivalence about the usefulness of this number in 07?
I will just point out one thing about Moody's/Real CPPI data.
It's based on repeat sales transactions of the same property, sold at least twice.
On a monthly basis, repeat sales transactions logged by Moody's/Real has declined from 440 transactions worth almost $9 billion in 6-07 to 230 transactions worth under $150 billion in June.
So, CRE transaction volume is cratering and it makes the data a little more spotty.
The Post had a good article on the subject yesterday:
Sebastion said it could just mean more people are paying cash!
Is the same thing that led Greenspan to his 0% policy?
I'm staying away from this one
.............
Firsterist?
Sebastion said it could just mean more people are paying cash!
LOL
Thanks for the morning laugh, good stuff!
........
Novice people like me may enjoy this crash course. I have found sections 12 thru. 16 rather fascinating to demonstrate lucidly our financial problems.
Chris Martenson | chapters - The Crash Course - chapters, Crash Course, Economy, Energy, environment, Peak Oil, videos
Why apply for a loan when you can move into an abandoned REO for free?
Maybe foreclosure sharks tend to pay cash?
What does this mean for people who are moving into a less expensive home and letting their first one go into default?
McDonnell Douglas MD-82
i HATE this plane...
number one reason i won't fly with northwest airlines
"You're doing a heck of a job Muddy"
CIC (commander in chief)
MoT (et. al.)
What does this mean for people who are moving into a less expensive home and letting their first one go into default?
Someone the other day was saying this is becoming rampant. To me it sounds like an urban legend much like how Tanta described "walking away".
Have there been any studies / numbers released on this phenomenon?
It seems way to over the top to me.
...........
To me it sounds like an urban legend much like how Tanta described "walking away".
I agree with CR that walking-away is not urban legend.
I'm hearing that GSE tightening is impacting volume. FHA is a rapidly growing segment of the purchase market. I don't think it's as likely to double app (there's more loyalty towards a known DE underwriter). I wouldn't be suprised if FHA ended up being close to half of the purchase market.
I'm concerned about GHT.
I learned from Mt. Washington that walking down a mountain is just as difficult as walking up.
The slide is not easy, but necessary.
Elvis,
I confess I think it happens but I think it happens much less frequently than people talk about it...
......
Mortgage "applications" suffers from the same problem that "mall traffic" suffered last Christmas in predicting retail sales. It ain't who's lookin' it's who's buyin'.
First
What is MBA?
To jus sayin:
The Spanish flight that crashed was an MD-80, not MD-82. The engines were Pratt and Whitney. It was an engine catching fire that caused the crash.
Spanair Plane Overruns Runway, Catches Fire in Madrid (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
MBA = mortgage bankers associatio
Anon, MBA = Mortgage Bankers Association.
First Anon, "Sebastion said it could just mean more people are paying cash!" ... with quips like that you should have a name!
Best to all.
Someone the other day was saying this is becoming rampant. To me it sounds like an urban legend much like how Tanta described "walking away".
Walking away and renting (or moving in with family)is definitely not urban legend. However, I have not seen one real example of someone buying something less expensive with the plan to walk away from their existing obligation. I'm not saying it never happens, I've just never witnessed it. I can't help but thinking that the term "rampant" is quite a stretch.
Sorry, I was just kiddn there..oops
Gadzooks! People can't get loans so they just stop applying. How Un'merican. The people need to get that can do attitude back and get out and apply for loans for chrissakes.
Cheers,
If you don't take on more debt the terrorists win.
Mortgage application volume fell last week to the lowest level in nearly eight years. The Mortgage Bankers Association says the business is down 61% from this year's peak in February.
Not only are fewer new homes being built, but fewer people are refinancing existing mortgages.
Just yesterday, the Commerce Department said July construction of new homes and apartments fell to the lowest level in more than 17 years.
Someone the other day was saying this is becoming rampant. To me it sounds like an urban legend much like how Tanta described "walking away".
Heard a couple of people talking about it, but don't think they'll be able to swing the buying side of it. Hoping to do it is rampant.
Just next month, the Commerce Department said August construction of new homes and apartments fell to the lowest level in more than 26 years.
One of the downsides to the this economic downturn is that as the CR site takes over the world, many won't know who Sebastian, AheadofTheCurve or OJoe were, as they have tucked tail and run. Perhaps we need a wiki page with some of their best quotes so that we can reference that. Probably worth putting Conjure Bag on there as well. And some of Tanta's best zingers. And maybe a squirrel recipe. Or some Casseroled Pigeon.
12th,
I think "bred and born dopes" encapsulates me.
From MBA:
The second quarter economic growth likely picked up more strongly than initially reported. In the advance gross domestic product (GDP) report released at the end of July, the Bureau of Economic Analysis assumed that trade contributed 2.4 percentage points to growth -- already the largest contribution since 1980.
They are as full of shit as NAR
12th Percentile did you read that recipe, who has money for bacon when you are eating pigeon?
That link to above is here: Weekly Commentary
That type of crap is spin that Bush uses to take a vacation! That spin is crap!
Manitoba Bowlers Association.
When construction of bowling alleys goes down, the mooses (meese?) get very distraught. This causes ripples throughout the economies of North America, eventually causing Americans in the lower 48 to become too depressed to apply for mortgages.
slow...slow....like a giant ship, the continuing decline.
It's amazing that it takes so long for it to be obvious to a preponderance of possible buyers what the real picture is. I guess the NAR tricks work pretty well.
12th Percentile did you read that recipe, who has money for bacon when you are eating pigeon?
Have you ever tried to eat pigeon without the bacon?
I was very clear that I bought a bunch of SRS at $80. I have money for bacon.
Re: Perhaps we need a wiki page
Yes! In addition it would be nice to have a reference capability like Yahoo's message board, where you can click on a name of a poster and go back to see previous posts. Unfortunately, that would not work well for posters like Kona and Total Crap, et al, who have dynamic identities; nonetheless, if a person wants to see all the topics from a specific era, one would see these types of comments associated with stable names.
MoT,
"12th Percentile did you read that recipe, who has money for bacon when you are eating pigeon?"
It is perfectly acceptable to substitute shoe leather for bacon.
Just sayin'.
Cheers,
Wasn't there someone (Homedad43 ?) talking about using "long pig"?
12th Percentile - you started it...
here's your bumpersticker.
Wasn't there someone (Homedad43 ?) talking about using "long pig"? -- sdtfs
Homedad43 is much too civilized to have mentioned "long pig."
[takes a bow]
So, when are the drops in price in the expensive areas going to happen? (Manhattan, SF, better neighborhoods of Chicago, etc.)
Allright, stop that. This started out as a nice little discussion about eating MAB and as degenerated into talking about canabalism.
Right, AB, penalty box...you too stdfs.
Cheers,
finally discovered a Misean taboo...
been some time!
BWAHAHAHAHA!!!
[AB retires to put on his "I'm the quiet neighbor who always kept to himself" T-shirt]
I want me a "Long Pig - It's what's for dinner (perhaps you shouldn't have borrowed so much to buy that crap in your house you are underwater on but i'm glad you mostly eat organic because i prefer my longpig organic)" bumpersticker.
But, then again, I'll have no problem eating squirrel. I actually look forward to it. We are too soft. I've never been hungry enough to think that eating some intestines seems like a good idea. I see that as a character flaw.
It's interesting that when mention of "long pig" is made, nary a peep is made of the other choice - sheeple.
fricassee with a good brown roux--
Human Action at it's best.
The Sheeple is why I own some SKF
I consider it a moral obligation.
Anak Krakatau,
Not so much a taboo...more like I'm hungry.
Cheers,
Thaaat's more like it!
LandCap JV to buy Wachovia loans
LandCap JV to buy Wachovia loans: report
| Reuters
A joint venture created by LandCap Partners is buying $40 million of troubled land and construction loans from Wachovia Corp The Wall Street Journal said.
I wonder what mp's cookbook would offer...... the chapter heads would be interesting, if nothing else...... what would he choose as the other white meat.....
CR, you wrote: Although we can't compare directly to earlier periods because of the changes in the index, this does suggest that sales of homes are continuing to decline.
If you're still reading and haven't thrown your hands up - "Oh great, another thread blown to bits."
What's the relevance of the changes in the index? Do they mask more a robust decline?
many won't know who Sebastian, AheadofTheCurve or OJoe were, as they have tucked tail and run.
You know those guys continue to read, and credit must be given to them for having the incredible discipline not to post anymore.
You know they are desperate to continue to defend the indefensible.
Fifty-fifth!
for those who like to watch cliff diving
Rhodium Charts
scroll down to the 1 year graph for the full effect
rhoooooooodium...lookout below
You know they are desperate to continue to defend the indefensible -- feeting drolls
and defeat the feetless?
I think Sebastian is busy beating his garage door opener. Poor Pedro.
I saw an article on CNN about Sebastian the other day. It's title was something like "$10 A Day Hookers Have Little Choice."
You know they are desperate to continue to defend the indefensible.
feeding trolls | 08.20.08 - 12:49 pm | #
maybe they just changed their handle to Do
I do not own the market
I don't tell it what to do
I am just a passenger
I am just here for the ride
The engineer decides decides things
Comfort's handled by the crew
Great danger lurks before me
But I still fell good inside
Because I do know my place
It's to stand and wait or sit
until the market beckons
me to take my small profit
sorry, sometimes, I get lost.
and no longer wish to make a spectacle of throwing in the towel.
to 12:53 and 12.54
sorry
"If you don't take on more debt the terrorists win."
Don't worry your government has that covered, unfortunately the terrorist are going to win because of that.
Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac-two incestuous Appalachians sodomized by Wall Sreet tychoons leverage, falling asset values. It is all a grand plan to REMOVE securitization from the weak(govie) and place it in the hands of the strong. The taxpayers will be left holding the bad debt and new, lower risk securities will be packaged by the stong global financiers
CR: Is there a specific date for changes to the index or did they take place repeatedly?
The pres, or other honcho of Fannie was on NPR, the Diane Reims show (spelling?). He was so smarmy and slick it made me want to throw up my squirell breakfast. (Well, McD's said it was ham, but who knows.)
He was asked some moderately hard questions by Diane and the callers-in.
But, to ignore the very important water-cooler aspect of all threads momentarily, I wouldn't mind hearing more about why CR and others think this number is suddenly becoming a valuable index again. The "why not" issues were explicitly covered in the post and he mentions changes in the index meaning we can't directly compare periods (which?) to 2002 and I admit to not knowing what these changes are -- are they are actual changes in the definition itself or simply linked to CR's ambivalence about the usefulness of this number in 07?
MBA= More Bullshit Ahead
Ciao
MS
I posted this here yesterday, even before the media reported it or Michael tipped it. But I never get a hat tip.
In fact, I post a CRE summary for you every month, as soon as I get the e-mail alert. I'm a subscriber to their service.
No problem. I don't need hat tips, anyways. I'd rather have profits in SRS.
I will just point out one thing about Moody's/Real CPPI data.
It's based on repeat sales transactions of the same property, sold at least twice.
On a monthly basis, repeat sales transactions logged by Moody's/Real has declined from 440 transactions worth almost $9 billion in 6-07 to 230 transactions worth under $150 billion in June.
So, CRE transaction volume is cratering and it makes the data a little more spotty.
The Post had a good article on the subject yesterday:
DEALS TAPER OFF IN A LARRY LULL - NYPOST.com
I saw an article on CNN about Sebastian the other day. It's title was something like "$10 A Day Hookers Have Little Choice.
Huh. I thought that article was about Fannie and Freddie.
Sorry, the total volume of repeat sales transactions reported has declined from about $9 billion to under $3 billion.
of repeat transactions per month have declined from about 400 per month to under 150 per month.