July Existing Home Sales: Record Inventory
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Mon, 08/25/2008 - 6:00am (132 comments)
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Months of supply is the key right now. It will continue to increase as demand continues to fall and foreclosures rule the market. Homebuilders are SOL.
In other words, despite a slight increase in sales M/M due to REO sales, inventory is still increasing. Boo-yah!
Are these NAR statics reliable ? What am I missing- As credit is getting tighter and tighter there are fewer buyers. At some point it seems that pools of buyers will run dry and sales will drop again ratcheting prices down more (maybe even radically -capitulation )
"NSA sales were reported at 501 thousand in July, however about one-third of those were foreclosure resales. This means regular sales are less than half the level of July 2005 and 2006." CR
Or in other words, "regular" sales will soon become irregular as REOs continue to flood the market and other homes will be reluctant to compete in price.
Foreclosures are the new regular.
When does Walmart start selling houses? Buy in bulk from the banks and set up a little kiosk in the store.
Is it really fair to strip out foreclosure sales? A good percentage of those are probably going to folks want to be homeowners (i.e. owner occupied) and are discovering that the least sticky prices (i.e. best prices) are found in purchasing REOs.
When does Walmart start selling houses? Buy in bulk from the banks and set up a little kiosk in the store.
s0mebody |
I'm living on aisle 3 in the Flat screen TV section.
Who knows where NAR gets their data, but if they pull the data from the local Board of Realtor data, then odds are that the situation is worse than it appears. Many "short sales" get listed only when they sell.
Many of these get sold to investors without the use of the local board of realtors.
Tomorrow is Case/Shiller data? Uh-oh...
The last 3 or 4 Tuesday C/S releases - despite being worse than expected, have been scorching stock market rallies... Got to be careful about add to shorts now; or perhaps tomorrow will mark a change in reaction to C/S...
I'm living on aisle 3 in the Flat screen TV section.
NSA | 08.25.08 - 10:44 am
Free wifi I guess. Nice.
Plus, the snack food section is just around the corner.
I would love to see these graphs for the Canadian major cities.
Anyone?
CR - Thanks again for the hard work!
NSA, you can't do that forever. However, I've been living on top of the frozen food aisle. If you know what your doing, you can easily warm the frozen stuff to piping hot on the exhaust units.
Cheers,
...happening was that some inventory was being passed on from builders to speculators, i.e., invesuckers.
Really it was the banks that were the suckers. The house flippers weren't actually spending their own money after all. Comparatively they were the smart ones.
Now the fist time home buyer who put 20% down on a house in 2005 on the other hand...
ac,
"The house flippers weren't actually spending their own money after all."
Nope...they were spending their credit ratings.
Cheers,
Wasn't the NAR promoting 5+% gains in pending sales a little while ago? I wonder if it's significant that nearly half that gain disappeared once the actual sales numbers arrived. Could be noise (it's only a few percent in absolute numbers) but could also be a side effect of it being harder and harder to close sales.
FYI - the link to the NAR press release points to the June numbers, not July.
Where are all the FCs coming from, WaMu ?
Certainly not FNM, FRE & IMB since the government is working hard to suppress those units. When they capitulate it's anchors away!
Bank's are pulling back on foreclosures after the $300B bailout, to look politically correct if for no other reason. Meanwhile weekly mortgage applications are down 12.5% since June. Given these numbers one could predict the months of supply will surge to over a year before 2009.
It is already anchors away. At that point it will be full throttle.
UPS and FedEx will do inventory management for those firms that need help or want to reduce costs. Just ship those houses to Memphis and let the cranes (upgraded fork lifts) put them in mothballs until they are sold. 24 hour delivery on sold houses too!
Another idea: contract with the folks who do mothballing of ships and commercial aircraft! Send all the houses to some desert graveyard where they will be made ready for long-term storage without much degradation.
REOs and any other distress sales are not going to follow seasonality. As the initial demand for lower priced housing is used up and credit tightens much of the shadow inventory will migrate to the MLS where it finally gets counted. I expect the honest inventory to continue to rise.
How many records can this eCONomy take?
Cheers,
I see these numbers and they make me especially glad that my sister finally sold her house. She lived in one of the more desirable communities near Portland, Oregon, and she and her husband have been trying to get out of that area for a couple years to move out-of-state (and less crowded -- congestion doesn't even begin to describe Portland nowadays). The number of homes for sale in their area almost trebled in one year, from 125 to 365 (according to Zillow)! 68% of these were distressed sales. Tough market to sell in!
FunYun mentioned the "shadow inventory" on Bubblevision this morning...looks like even this clown sees it... He stated many banks are using realtors to sell homes OUTSIDE OF THE MLS...
OT:
Anyone familiar with the 95123 zip code in San Jose? My neice just bought (yesterday) a 2000sq.ft. house for $765K. How are things around there?
I could hold them from buying for about a year but I suppose they could not hold themselves any more.
There are REO FSBOs here! A lot of the homes that 'appear to sell' pop back up, FSBOs or REOs.
But they're still building, houses, offices, roads to nowhere...
Tyra,
I live down the way..prices still inflated or elevated here, reo pricing creeping in from east bay slowly...
Damn Google and Apple money still floating around here..hence the price...
everybody has thier own timeline for buying..waiting would have been better but who's to say...
cd,
Thanks for the reply. Yes, they both work in tech. and their cohort (hired graduate in 2005+) are all looking. I guess the peer pressure was unbearable.
First to buy REOs loses.
$382.50/ft., ty?
And here I bask of the lap of squalor, fully renovated and completely paid off, for $41/ft. I feel like such a bum.
What's the attraction? Hot and cold running virgins? Self-watering pot plants?
" tyaresun writes:
OT:
Anyone familiar with the 95123 zip code in San Jose? My neice just bought (yesterday) a 2000sq.ft. house for $765K. How are things around there?
I could hold them from buying for about a year but I suppose they could not hold themselves any more.
tyaresun | 08.25.08 - 11:22 am | # "
Over in the hill in Santa Cruz where many of the valley elite have second homes... prices are creeping down slowly and sales are very low.
As cd says, valley money supports valley prices, especially in the west valley. This assumes that high-tech will not slump. And that is a very faulty assumption.
"What's the attraction? Hot and cold running virgins? Self-watering pot plants?"
Too much money sloshing around, and good weather.
Elvis,
Do they track if a home is a 2nd or 3rd REO?
Cheers,
Thanks CR, all the headlines read about the increase in sales bit nothing about the record inventory.
Check out this analysts comment below, it is kind of like saying "If we score more goals than the other team we have a good chance of winning"
LINDSEY PIEGZA, MARKET ANALYST, FTN FINANCIAL, NEW YORK:
"We see some demand seeping back into the market. The majority of that was due to the price decline. As prices continue to decline, we should see more demand."
"We don't see the total supply diminishing because we are seeing more foreclosures and distress sales. We need to see prices fall further to clear the overhanging inventory. The more months of positive sales should be a sign of home buyer confidence."
"It's not enough to sign a change in trend, but it's a positive report. Hopefully we could move in this direction. It could take up to two years for prices to start climbing back up again."
AB,
"Hot and cold running virgins?"
I only want the hot ones. You can have all of the cold ones, for all I care.
Cheers,
Too much money sloshing around, and good weather.
Must be, Bob.
I guess one of the advantages to living where the cool people aren't is that although things like don't go all Saturn5y, they don't go all Hindenburgy either.
You can have all of the cold ones, for all I care.
Ahhh... spoken like a yout', my son.
They're like another dish best served cold.
fist time home buyer
Gawd, please tell me that was a typo, ac. "Fist time" may be an appropriate term but this is a family blog, right?
Interesting comment about some REO's not showing up on the MLS.
Chances are that the realtors don't want pure price discovery anymore. I've notiiced that in my area.
If I were the bank, I would insist on an MLS listing.
there is some evidence lenders are holding off foreclosing, perhaps trying for workouts, or maybe the lenders are just overwhelmed
Could there also be a situation where some lenders are dragging their feet on foreclosures simply because they don't want to have to take any more write-downs? In the situation where a lender is scating on thin ice to avoid FDIC conservatorship maybe they could feel that it is better to let a delinquency drag out rather than be forced to have to take a mark-to-market write down on the mortgage and upset their reserve ratios even more?
Oh, the humanity:
YouTube - Hindenburg disaster
Cheers,
When does WaMu go down? They are looking precarious. I expect a run any day now.
Sniglet,
"Could there also be a situation where some lenders are dragging their feet on foreclosures simply because they don't want to have to take any more write-downs?"
Hell yes! Why do you think banks are increasing the lag for NOD's?
Cheers,
"...fist time buyers"? ..."scating on thin ice"?
The typos are taking on a decidedly un-family friendly tone.
This has to mean something. . .
AB,
"Ahhh... spoken like a yout', my son."
Thanks Dad.
Cheers,
Chances are that the realtors don't want pure price discovery anymore. I've notiiced that in my area.
Relitters® never wanted price discovery. The NAR exists only to promote opacity.
JBR,
"The typos are taking on a decidedly un-family friendly tone.
This has to mean something. . ."
Other than being too funk to druck...?
Cheers,
sniglet,
My sister is 7 months down on payment to cntrywide without a hint of NOD..
They couldn't handle the reset especially with toy loving husband...
Btw-700 scores, no lates before...
repo next door is priced 200K below thier loan...
7 months is a lot of holding back....
7 months! I'm shorting BAC.
"Other than being too funk to druck...?"
At 11:58 EST? Good Lord man! At least wait 'till noon!
Here is Micheal Phelps real gold medal
http://i63.photobucket.com/albums/h143/dubolt/StephRice2.jpg
JBR,
I take vacation once every 5 years. I'm due.
Cheers,
"Son, hiding the REOs only makes it worse."
"I think getting no salary is worse, Dad."
And thank you for the Hindi vid. I'll remember to sit in the No Smoking section next time I go on them.
Getting back on topic, I can't help wondering (yet again) just how much of this so-called inventory is actually going to last, given it's poor construction to begin with.
My digs are 105 years old, and likely to survive me by a good long time. (Unless I blast Mrs.B out of here and decamp to palm trees and cold virgins.)
The realtors/MLS don't want those funky REOs being on the MLS, since then they can't pretend that this is a great time to buy a house (at seller asking price rather than auction price).
What just happened in the market?
AB,
Yeah...someone posted about the quality of REO's on Friday, but I'd be interested in how these new press board estates are holding up...structure wise.
Cheers,
7 months is a lot of holding back....
My guess is that they're not holding back but are unable to push forward. Bodies (with appropriate training/skills/experience) are still scarce.
"What just happened in the market?"
KABOOM!
I don't know, but I sure like it!
Mr. Beach: Bush farted. Dow quick fall, gold quick rise.
Mr. Beach,
"What just happened in the market?"
Oh my Glod!
Cheers,
I'm in agreement with some other posters (Elvis, iceman) that the foreclosures probably should be considered regular sales.
If a foreclosed house down the block sells for 20% less than my house (and isn't trashed out), then it's likely that my house headed down as well.
I think of the market as a big swimming pool...it's got some foreclosed water and some non-foreclosed water, but it's all mixed together and we all jump into the same pool at least on a local level.
If you could prove that speculators and investors are buying foreclosed houses at a significantly higher rate than they are buying non-foreclosed houses (any data sources?), then maybe you separate the two, but I think (based on intuition) it's a big mix now.
Disturbing signs of strength in DFW. By which I mean that a builder we're talking with is still making positive noises about how quickly his inventory is drying up.
Doesn't delaying NOD also delay writedowns?
No tickee, no worries, (Mon)
Curlydan,
"I think of the market as a big swimming pool...it's got some foreclosed water and some non-foreclosed water,"
You gotta watch those yellow warm spots as well...
Just sayin'
Cheers,
BAGHDAD - Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said Monday no security agreement with the United States could be reached unless it included a "specific deadline" for the withdrawal of all American troops from Iraq.
The loan that is 7 months in arrears has or should be listed on the books as non performing.
The write downs come later.
Anon Bosch-
It certainly does. This is why there is a huge disconnect in the reported FC's and the shadow inventory.
This was the best quote (IMO) from the PR
“A recent online survey of Realtors® shows nearly a quarter of potential home buyers are waiting on the sidelines,”
So 1/4 of all the people we are making up that might buy a house are sitting it out.....
Gotta love that.
Ciao
MS
"What just happened in the market?"
Rising inventory curve just crossed the falling expectations line, thus generating a shock-wave that blasted away the support.
OT: Anybody see the positive comments IRA made concerning DSL? Reprinted on RGE, FWIW.
PPT warming up the helicopters...look for a major rally soon...they cant let the market fail before the elections
A little old, but...
Home magazine, which shares an owner with other magazine brands such as Elle, Car and Driver, Road and Track and Woman's Day, will cease publication after its October issue.
Jack Kliger, president and CEO for the magazine's parent company, Hachette Filipacchi Media U.S. (HFM U.S.), reported that the "current economic environment is difficult, and the mid-market home sector has been particularly hard hit. When the middle market recovers, we will consider future publication of HOME" as a single-subject guidebook available at newsstands. Kliger added, "It is difficult to close a magazine, particularly when it means that some of our colleagues' positions will be affected."
See Also: Realogy
c&c,
You mean these things,
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:CH-47_2.jpg
Do we have enough?
Cheers,
I'm not just another pretty face, You know.
The median price of an existing home fell to $212,400 from $228,600 in July 2007.
We are in a very tight credit-availability condition,'' Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, said in a press conference.Inventories continue to remain very high.'' One-third to 40 percent of total sales last month reflected distressed properties, which include foreclosures, he said.
So median price went down 8% in one month. Is that correct?
LOL!!
Helicopter Ben hooking up with Bazooka Paulson
who finally realizes he was bringing a squirt-gun to a truly fine folderol
hence the howitzer?
Beware the $7,500 'tax credit'
The housing rescue credit may prod some new homebuyers. But the money must be repaid, and the program probably won't be enough to jump start housing market.
Tax credit for first time home buyers comes with caveats - Aug. 18, 2008
The $7,500 credit is for people buying their first homes, and was passed as part of the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 and signed into law in July. To qualify for the full $7,500, individuals must earn less than $75,000 annually, while couples may earn up to $150,000. Individual buyers with income of up to $95,000 and couples with income up to $170,000 are eligible for a partial credit.
The Senate Finance Committee estimates that about 1.6 million people will use the credit.
The housing industry pushed for the program. "Breaking the log jam of unsold homes is something we are very much behind," said Richard Dugas, president of builder Pulte Homes, at a news conference to discuss the program. First time home buyers represented about 20% of the market for new homes in 2007.
Mr. Beach,
Maybe they figured koreans won't touch leh at current price...Or not at all..
Rumor music .....
YouTube -
I bet there will even be rumors floatin'
around on judgement day.
I think I'll write my congressman and tell him to pass a bill
So the next time they catch somebody startin'
rumors shoot to kill.
Look at all these rumors that surrounding me everyday
"Home magazine, which shares an owner with other magazine brands such as Elle, Car and Driver, Road and Track and Woman's Day, will cease publication after its October issue."
But, later on, and importantly, in the article, the publisher annouced it will release a new publication starting in November entitled "Bando Today." The publisher stated, "We believe the bando is a growing and underserved demographic. This magazine will focus on such things as getting free cable, the best time of the day to rob your neighbor, and the pros and cons of abandoned homes with swimming pools."
Sorry AB, the name changer Got Glod's post just replaced my wall paper.
BTW I have the Mystery Science Theater 3000 version of CFTBL 3. It's quite funny.
Cheers,
Huh? Dow down 250 and there are only 165 visitors online?
So median price went down 8% in one month. Is that correct?
Fast Eddie
No, I year acoording to the NAR. But, yes, 8% down in one month in reality.
Sonic, you're not counting the elevator boy?
Squirrel story:
These homes for sale stink
Never before have there been so many squalid, dilapidated homes on the market - and they're helping to exaggerate already-plummeting home prices.
Houses in subprime shape lead price charge down - Aug. 22, 2008
"Part of the reason home prices are declining is a fundamental deterioration in the housing stock," said Glenn Kelman, CEO of the online, discount broker Redfin. "During the boom, nine out of 10 houses for sale in many markets were in prime condition. Now, for every 10 houses, at least three are dogs."
"The first one I saw was the worst home I had ever seen in my life," said the married mother of two young girls. "There were magic-marker messages on the front door saying, 'STAY OUT.' They had poured paint and other stuff on the carpets. There was a lot of trash. I felt like I was at the scene of a crime. I wouldn't let my daughters touch anything."
In Florida, another foreclosure hot spot, vacant homes deteriorate rapidly in the high heat and humidity.
Garbage and food that's left behind fester. "The properties smell," said Eve Alexander, an agent in Orlando. "You find maggots. The swimming pools are green. The lawns dry up. They're eyesores. Neighbors yell at us to water the lawn."
A public service of Kona Enterprises
I'm highly amused today because I bought some TWM on Friday except I wasn't paying attention and accidentally shorted it.
I'm not kidding. >:(
Sonic the volume is pathetic...
But you have to enjoy the the cliff jumping we are doing today.
AC that sucks. Anyone see a declining channel forming?? Volume is weak but it is an interesting trend forming.
Yah, WTF, there must be a negative correlation to this?
Re: 159 Visitors Online
That was a fun story:
Nationally 18.6% of all homes sold during the three months ended June 30 were foreclosures, compared with just 7% during the same period a year earlier, and 3.1% in 2006, according to the real estate Web site Zillow.com. And that doesn't include short sales, which is when a home is sold for less than the mortgage balance and the bank forgives the unpaid balance and also account for a lot of sales in many areas.
"A three-year old home that recently sold for $660,000 is listed for $350,000. There's no kitchen, no master bath. The toilet was taken, the tub, cabinets gone."
One way to think about what's happened in the market over the last year is that individual companies in trouble dragged down the indexes a bit. If you think about the hit caused by the car companies, airlines, and leading financials (C, MER, AIG, etc) alone, you get about 10-15% off the index highs.
But the indexes as a whole still haven't adjusted to a sinking global economy, descending earnings, and fuzzy-bleak prospects for recovery. The indexes as a whole haven't shifted away from speculative risk.
You'll know the indexes are finally recognizing reality when REITs, U.S. small caps and emerging market stocks decline a lot and stay down. It's not the PPT that's propping up emerging markets. It's leveraged hedge funds and prop desks that still haven't lost enough money to become more risk averse. There's always one more dime to pick up in front of a steamroller.
Emerging markets have huge downside before they bottom. MSCI Emerging tripled over five years, and at least 60% of that gain will be erased. Watch markets like Taiwan, India and Brazil. When they drop another 20-30%, the real bear will be on.
10900 would be amusing..
Just sayin'
Cheers,
I'm in San Francisco Bay Area and the housing fever is still running hot here. "Buy in this temporary drop in prices or be left behind forever..."
AIG looking ugly...maybe they are not oo big to fail. The connections between FNM and AIG are very significant with their off balance sheet entities... I think if FNM goes down so does AIG
Some drop in the market may be the lip service by Bernanke that he is running low on cash to bail out crooks; some of the speculation may have to chill down a bit and not depend on daddy as much, for bailouts?
REOs are just another type of inventory, attracting both investors and regular buyers who were priced out of the market.
I wasn't even intimating wanton destruction, Deaf Regulator.
Last year I helped a buddy replace ALL THE windows on his daughter's house because of rot around the sills...
built 10 years ago.
I'll be surprised if many of these mansions survive their mortgages.
c&c,
Bloom TV had a whol4e hour on AIG and Home Depot.
Scary...
Cheers,
What happens when AIG is too small to pay out claims, or Fannie is too small to underwrite, or BAC is too small to lend? These are my questions, but to stay on topic, what happens if there are too many homes to sell and not enough buyers with real assets? What if the curtain is pulled back and we find that this illusion is too stupid to continue?
AIG is going spelunking today.
"What's it like down there?" John "iRobot" Thai
The moral of the inventory data is that if you want to sell your house let it go to REO first. This is the "under house arrest" I've been warning of for years. Even people supposedly with equity cannot sell until they give up that paper equity. They can either give the house to the bank or they can lower price to comp the REOs but either way they need to mark to market in order to sell. This is also why equity lines are disappearing. The lenders know that paper equity would not withstand a mark to market. We homeowners are now the holders of our own private Level 3 asset.
What if the curtain is pulled back and we find that this illusion is too stupid to continue?
Deaf Regulator
Then we just click our ruby slippers three times and we are back in Kansas.
AB,
"Last year I helped a buddy replace ALL THE windows on his daughter's house because of rot around the sills...
built 10 years ago."
That's my point. The press board estates prolly can't hold up over the life of the loan.
Cheers,
What if the curtain is pulled back and we find that this illusion is too stupid to continue?
The hope is still very much alive. LEH and MER shouldn't even have common stock trading.
Re: "I'll be surprised if many of these mansions survive their mortgages"
I think you call that deferred maintenance, and when these mcMansion Retards start realizing the costs of maintaining these structures over 5 or ten years, during an inflationary boom -- you add fuel to the fire, just as with SUV retards bailing out for smaller more efficient life styles, which are more affordable.
10900 would be amusing..
AAACK! Don't even think that out loud, Misean. I'm long Bucky at the moment.
What if the curtain is pulled back and we find that this illusion is too stupid to continue?
We go back to saving for DP? Buying on layaway? Lots of pain between now and then.
Most people I know who are of Medium income 70-100k dollars per household are taking out 40 year mortgages in the Bay Area. Their reasoning, "I'll sell in ten years and make money off the appreciation" Yay
Re: layaway?
Are you crazy, people want instant gratification and if they wait a few days, they may want something different!
ac-
d'oh...
The only thing I've done like that is to buy puts instead of calls on a particular stock. The nomenclature for each was off by one letter and it was early...and I was leaving for a trip....my fault entirely.
but shorting a short, by accident, is a new one for me.... I've shorted the QID once.....never again.
I can see how easy it would be though....
Ciao
MS
there ain't gonna be no mo instant grati, grati, uh goodies.
We're going to go back to the mortgage company taking six weeks to process your apps. Even then, you're going to have to prove you don't need the money to get the loan. Like the old days.
Re: layaway?
In addition, did anyone see a post last night about a school district caving in to parents and kids that didn't want the school to reduce the bus service for the school district? They all complained so much, that the school board decided to use its reserves to pay for higher fuel costs and keep some kids from walking to school.
It is this instnat lotto society that is the foundation of The bush Ownership Society -- a spineless, weak society that can't say no, to more debt, more retardation, more trouble, more synthetic derivatives like covered bonds, more tattoos, more drugs, more alcohol, less discipline ...... how did we get a society to look the other way on no-doc loans that allowed idiots to take possession of homes that were built for speculators? Huh, huh punk?
daddie mac-
Are your initials C.H. ??
Ciao
MS
I'd rather have a Quid than a dollar.
AB,
"AACK! Don't even think that out loud, Misean. I'm long Bucky at the moment."
Well that's a struggle. Get out before summer ends...that's this week AB.
Cheers,
Anyone familiar with the 95123 zip code in San Jose? My neice just bought (yesterday) a 2000sq.ft. house for $765K. How are things around there?
Terrible area to be buying a home short or long term. Price way over the top for that area. The bubble is still perking along in Calif. even with the foreclosure buying it's all based on RE Spec
Roger that, M.
I did read that, DR. L'dMAO. Next winter they'll be burning the desks. Not that that would really matter. The damn schools are simply a place to keep the crotchfruit off the streets during the day.
daddie mac,
I'd be loath to ignore MS's advice.
Just sayin'
Cheers,
hey teds up
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP%3AIND
As the spread decreases, the risk of default is considered to be decreasing.
ac-
d'oh...
The only thing I've done like that is to buy puts instead of calls on a particular stock. The nomenclature for each was off by one letter and it was early...and I was leaving for a trip....my fault entirely.
but shorting a short, by accident, is a new one for me.... I've shorted the QID once.....never again.
I can see how easy it would be though....
Ciao
MS
Anonymous
It just ended up costing me a few bucks, but the reason it happened is I always try to short the Ultra fund, UWM in this case, which they didn't have. So I just went with TWM, without switching the transaction type.
Lesson learned.
AB,
Damn!
"crotchfruit"
I don't even know to go with this. Well I do...but it's not family friendly...
Cheers,
Jeez, Misean. I stepped over the line. It just escaped before I could hit Backspace.
I'd like to apoligise to all the crumb-snatchers, door-slammers, and rug-rats out there in CRland.
AB,
Your prolly safe. I'll drop one:
long pig....
that should do it...as long as sdtfs isn't around.
Cheers,
I suppose long piglet would be more tender. But, as we've acknowledged, this is a family blog, and further discussion on this subject may be more appropriate "after hours" when the meals, oops, kids are asleep.
There is, additionally, the consideration that we're treading perilously close to squi... uh, little furry ones with bushy tails.
Re: I'd like to apoligise to all the crumb-snatchers, door-slammers, and rug-rats out there in CRland.
Thank you for your sensitivity!
Mr. Beach,
"What just happened in the market?"
Oh my Glod!
Cheers,
Misean
Wall Street is sobering up?
Got Popcorn?
Neil
This is a newb question:
The fourth graph that shows the NSA is an Existing Home Sale measured by when the home actually closes Escrow or when it opens Escrow?
I'm just trying to figure out what month I should close escrow to fully leverage the supply/demand pricing to my advantage being a first time home buyer.
month I should close escrow to fully leverage the supply/demand pricing to my advantage
price is set at the start of escrow.
The loan that is 7 months in arrears has or should be listed on the books as non performing.
The write downs come later.
Yeah... "later"... as in after Obama/McSame take the helm. Amazing how effective 'kick the can' is, and how easily the sheeple fall for it time after time.
Inventory has turned a corner in the outer burbs of DC. In Loudoun county VA inventory is down from a high of 4900 in June 2006 to 2500 today. Prices peaked here in August 2005 and have been falling rapidly since. Looks like there may be a bottom in early 2009. Federal government raises in DC metro were substantial last year at 4.49% and should be 3.9% this year for military and civilians. Because of our rampant inflation the COLA for retirees is on track to be 6.2%!
prices are dropping clearly north of SF (route #1)
Bolinas Real Estate - Serving Bolinas, Stinson Beach, Inverness, Point Reyes Station and West Marin
note the shack in Inverness that is now 350K used to be 450K not so long ago
now let us just wait for the altA to get in full swing and the tech sector to show some cracks...
I'm just trying to figure out what month I should close escrow to fully leverage the supply/demand pricing to my advantage being a first time home buyer.
Jefferson Kim | Homepage | 08.25.08 - 1:52 pm | # -------------------------------------------
Basing your purchasing decision upon national numbers is so misguided that I am inclined to think you will just keep finding excuses to not purchase a home, save yourself a lot of wasted time and just be content to rent for the rest of your life.
I'm not sure that the percentage of REOs is THAT important. I mean the extra supply will continue to put negative pressure on prices, but each of those sales presumably represents actual demand from a buyer. I'm more concerned with the last chart and the fact that for every one of the last 30 months in a row, sales have been less than those 1 year previously. That is a significant erosion in demand.