OT: Cindy McCain is enroute to Georgia...no not the close one, the one way over THERE.... One presumes the GOP thinks that if Russians can issue passports to Ossetians, then maybe McCain can give Georgians US presidential ballots. You know, for write in votes. Probably worth a try...LOL
I keep asking me self---I say self "who would ever invest in a BankUnited; a WaMu: a fannie mae; a Corus bank; an Ambac; MBIA..GGP..GM Ford" This list seems endless and continues to get longer.
and I continue: self "Why..why.. haven't the regulators"...well you guys know the rest.
and self answers in a small voice
"it must be politics.. wait until after the elections...that's when the statemen will appear.
At least the McCains have the guts to show their support for a democracy that has had the crap kicked out of it by a bunch of authoritarian thugs. Where the hell is Michelle??? Oh, backtracking on a long list of gaffes...
The fundamental [macroeconomic] problem in the American economy is that, for years, people treated rising asset prices as a substitute for personal savings.
Is it merely strange coincidence that irrational exuberance and ill-conceived public policy experiments always trace back to California?
MLM - That "democracy" was set up to get kicked by Condi and Cheney. McSame is just trying to make political hay on the bodies of dead Georgians...
Want to ask the Iraqi's about getting the crap kicked out of them by authoritarian thugs - like Blackwater.
And Cindy? bwaaaahhaahahahahaha.
But hey, how 'bout that smokin' economy? Wow - great job Bush boys. Ripping off Americans, profiting on false wars, and criminal behavior at a level that staggers the imagination.
Double Jeopardy! Round
The second round, Double Jeopardy!, works like the first round, with the following exceptions:
Six new categories are used.
There are two Daily Doubles in this round.[3]
The value of each clue is double what it was in the first round (except in the case of the 1990 Super Jeopardy! tournament, where values were 500, 1,000, 1,500, 2,000, and 2,500 points).
The contestant with the lowest amount of money at the end of the Jeopardy! Round makes the first selection in Double Jeopardy! If there is a tie for the trailing position, the player to the host's left selects first.
Last month, the bank's president, Bruce Schwyhart, told the Wichita Business Journal the bank was raising up to $1.5 million in new capital following an examination by the OCC earlier this year. The regulator at the time was looking closely at the bank's commercial real estate portfolio, which is an area of concern for many banks nationally.
Schwyhart said examiners suggested the bank raise additional capital to keep up with its growth.
The following is an excerpt from a 10-Q SEC Filing, filed by PFF BANCORP INC on 8/11/2008
(4) Recent Developments
On June 13, 2008, we entered into a Memorandum of Understanding with the OTS. In
part, the Memorandum of Understanding formally prevents us from incurring,
renewing or rolling over any debt, formally limits our ability to make any
payments on existing debt (principal, interest or fees of any kind) and
prohibits us from declaring, making or paying dividends without OTS approval.
Lax Oversight by State and Federal Regulators
Testimony
before the
National Commission on Fair Housing
and Equal Opportunity The page cannot be found aspx?fileticket=8ZeI1MEbaBk%3D&tabid=3009&mid=6208
Federal banking regulators failed to reign in abusive practices at the lending institutions they regulated. Further, they prevented states from taking action against those institutions. Federally regulated lenders also took advantage of this lax oversight to originate huge volumes of loans. Depository institutions were able to use rules from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and other regulators to their benefit. The OCC, following a similar rule issued by the Office of Thrift Supervision, issued a statement providing an exemption for its member institutions from state anti-predatory lending laws. Not only did it provide pre-emption for the member bank, but the pre-emption extended to the affiliates and third party vendors of the member institution. Thus mortgage brokers doing business on behalf of the company and any subprime subsidiary would, according to the federal regulators, be exempt from state regulation and state lending laws that prohibited abusive lending practices. This was damaging to communities because many states that had responded more quickly than the federal government and established stringent anti-predatory lending statutes were unable to apply those statutes to the subprime affiliates of some federally regulated banks. However, the OCC rule and others like it were a boon to lenders who were able to make larger profit margins on subprime loans. Lenders, who for years had been telling civil rights and consumer advocacy groups that there was insufficient need for credit in minority neighborhoods, were now able to do high levels of lending through their subprime affiliates in central city neighborhoods much to the detriment of homeowners and buyers in minority neighborhoods. And while this was going on, the federal financial regulatory agencies did nothing except inhibit the efforts of state regulators to take any meaningful action. At the same time, FHEO failed in its responsibility to ensure that all federal departments work to affirmatively further fair housing.
At least the McCains have the guts to show their support for a democracy that has had the crap kicked out of it by a bunch of authoritarian thugs
MLM
geoprgia broke away from USSR, a move the vast majority of its population supported
ossetia was in the process of breaking away from georgia, a move the vast majority of its population supported.
Russia boarders ossetia and each views the other as allies
US interest in Georgia has little to do with democracy and more to do with trans- Caspian oil.
McCain said we are all Georgians now, and you agree?
and Finally, you, MLM, are willing to go fight and possibly die and or send your adult children and the young men and women of the USA to kill russians, ossetians, and fight and die there?
MLM, you have to understand that Jim is one of those Lambourghni Liberals that we have so many of here in the peoples glorius republic of chapel hill. He is just...what do the shrinks say?...projecting as in voting illegal aliens and graveyards. You know one of Vladimir Illiyich's "Useful Idiots".
Ross, the website is not really mine, I'm just advertising it. I figured that once in a while a guy with a good heart and a significant income might decide to divert a little bit of dough from the OU scholarship fund and the Montessori educational effort to help elsewhere .
However, I am involved with microfinance in other ways.
MLM,
No matter. If our banks did their DD like these folks, we wouldn't be where we are.
People forget that banking or whatever you call it is a personal trust business. It can't be done with FICO's and co-signers. Banking is good. It gives those with money a place to invest and those with realistic dreams a chance.
Hell, even my ancestor Robert the Devil needed a bank to plan the takeover of England!
Cindy McCain going to Georgia? That's freaking hilarious! What, she's going to strengthen their resolve by revealing the secrets of her plastic surgeon? You can't make this stuff up.
if you are a patriot, than i think you owe it to yourself and our country to make an intelligent argument that supports why we should put the USA on the line for Georgia
that way you stand a better chance of convincing those of us who still believe in reason
i could be won over to your position or MLMs if convinced
I worked as a lineman for Ma Bell in the mid 60's to finance Univ.
My supervisor would always ask permission to trim or cut down a tree for the phone lines. When he was rejected, he would wear his tree trimming pants. One pocket had a hole and he would load it up with copper sulphate. He would judicially inspect the tree by walking around it.
Lo and behold! Tree died within 2 years. Magic Fate?
The comments section here is officially dead. Burned to point of uselessness.
Congratulations, idiots, you have ruined what once offered a little quality. Now it offers none whatsoever. CR's posts still are worthy, but this neighborhood is rotten.
mock - I was really just trolling for jim. I could care less who wins because we're in for 5 years of hell (OK, anon, this is for you), due to the fact that per the WSJ article that CR references, so many freaking banks are going to fail or get propped up that no matter who gets the job things are going to suck.
Same thing happened at rgemonitor. Roubini's used to be high quality discussion in 05 and 06, then it became a flood of nasty squawkers who destroyed the comments. Then he forced registration.
Anonymous, have you ever considered that the majority of the stuff that this site was devoted to exposing is now pretty much MSM material now. The only finance mystery left in the shadows is the CDS black hole. Like to hear some juicy tidbits from that dark corner of the ponzi finance world.
A month or so ago there was a bond trader that came and shared some current inside baseball stuff but aside from that... just 1 predictable flop after another.
Just like AOL the political vermin start creeping in with a nastiness born of a polarization fostered by the MSM. As I have seen stated here in the past DNFTT, they will go away, just bore them with the ugly details of what's in store.
Yeah this has become an irrelevant pissing contest now fueled by twits. I don't give a CRAP about your political opinions, you get one vote like I do. Take it outside, you're not clever.
Ok,
After the first 40 comments, stuff becomes stale. You can only say 'total idiots' so many times in so many ways.
A little largess is not harmful. I have learned how to carb up a family from dryfly and many other useful, practical things.
I had lunch with FFDIC because I was interested in his knowledge.
Well, we should try more to stick to the thread. But tangents happen. Blogs are real life and not a lecture hall. Communities are to educate one another. Such is life.
Ok. Sheila is a greasy haired miscreant being paid by evil neocons.
What else is there to say? I keep hoping for a 'capital flight' thread but one can only bail fodder for so long.
Anyone want to discuss Herman Kahn and his 1982 book "The Coming Boom' and what he saw happening after 2000?
Russians think of Georgians as swarthy thieves and Ukranians as a bunch of hicks, so why do they care about either one?
Oil & gas
Too many folks in power mistakenly think the only reason the soviet union collapsed was due to money problems, and now that they have it things will go back to the way things should be.
The western position should be to hammer the demand curve of oil n gas to encourage renewable sources so dangerous men like Putin no longer have a bankroll to cover their shifty behavior (and start I'd investing in more productive uses of our resources and money)
I'm pretty political, but I get enough at other blogs. I come here for financial news. But really, there isn't any excess of political comments here; when there is, it seems to self correct.
Remember, a free-flow of comments will ensure the exchange of squirrel-cookery tips.
By the way, it's night and there was big first-lady news tonight--what with Michelle's speech and Cindy's airborne mission to Georgia (gad, I hope she's got that sling from the hand-shake injury off by now).
the political slant is interesting to me if it relates directly to economics
Lefty
i would never argue gun control abortion etc here, but i would hope the geopolitical oil stuff would be ok with everyone if its well reasoned, and esp during weekends and late night!
if you feel im part of the problem, ill try to tone it dow
I'm just a half wit among great wits and I have an 'age' problem to overcome. Like typing with more than 2 fingers and learning how to link.
I tell you that I never laugh soooo hard as when I read erudite comments here. We need our own cartoonist to put comments on paper. Call it CR and Tanta on the glod blog.
I'm sure there's been anon here since the first set of comments, but 3 years of posting without even bothering to come up with even a fake handle menas your "insight" is worth as much as my nephew's pog collection.
If you don't like the comments either grow a pair and start your own blog, grow up and use a handle so others can have an intelligent conversation with you or FOAD.
Politics and economics are inseperable. The nature of the field (human subjects) prevents the kind of rigorous, randomized/ controlled experiments found in the hard sciences.
Economics and finance deal with core productive activities of humanity, as does politics. It is therefore inevitable that politics "corrupts" economics and vice versa.
Further, I think in an age where the Chinese are lending us trillions of dollars and the Russians have control of some of the largest remaining oil reserves, geopolitics is maybe the most important aspect of economics.
Ross, once you've cleaned up that embarassing puddle, maybe you could lead off a capital flight conversation by tossing out a prediction on how long it will be until capital controls are imposed.
Hard to find the baby amongst all the dirty water. Maybe 8 months ago someone commented that this blog has become a bit of a victim of its own success. I somewhat agree. Did anyone even read the article?
Anyone wanna guess that someone political is going to argue for the FOIA to not cover bank regulation due to the threat of causing a panic?
I disagree. The free market is a chaotic system, due to huge number of unknowns and inputs. And any chaotic system is random in nature. What it means - you can't be very accurate in predicting the markets, therefore any planning, and that's what politicians ultimately try to sell us, FAILS.
As of resources, it is not necessary the abundance that sets the weather but rather the price of any given resource. We depended on OIL not because there are no alternatives but because it has been so ridiculously CHEAP.
As of our dependance on China let's not forget that they depend on us as MUCH or even more.
First let's wait until CHina GDP is at least 50% of ours, and only than it will make sense to call it a mighty tiger.
Since it is late and no-one will ever, I hope, read this (tree martulies and tree brandys) I will explain in abbreviated detail my first stock purchase in 1967.
As a new 'customer's man' sitting in the Plaza office of Harris Upham, I was bored answering the phones and taking orders for 100 big steel a quarter under.
I got into the habit of going to the library to do research with S&P sheets and other vendors.
The last bubble had been in bowling stocks, Brunswick and AMF. Lots of tech companies like Control Data and a squirelly company called Hydrometals that had all run from single digits in 64 to tripple digits and back again by 67.
This Hydrometals stock was interresting on the surface. It went from $2 to $100 and was now back at 5.
Hmm said I, might go back up. It looked like a tech play with the name Hydrometals.
I bought 100 at $5 and a quarter. The stock promptly traded down to 3 something.
Not one to take defeat lighty, I got the S&P sheet and called the CEO to find out how is business. To my suprise, he took my call. His name was Frank Zarb. Look him up. He 'retired' as head of the American Exchange. Good politico.
Come to find out, Hydrometals was a Dallas plumbing supply mfg.
I paid for the stock with a lien against my 61 Merc Comet.
The moral is: Trust no-one. Not S&P not your broker not me on a blog not anyone least of all your Gummint.
Everyone sells or at least touts their book. Even the Saintly Buffet.
Agree completely with Lunesta. As an econ. major I learned quickly not to buy into the notion that you can quantify human behavior. Fortunately, Congress is too smart to get suckered by pure free-market theory, which is why we have minimum wages, relatively safe working conditions, public schools, etc. Again, for those who don't want any kind of housing bill, let's start with getting rid of the tax-deductibility of mortgage interest.
I'm curious about do-it-myself capital flight. Is there a disinterested and reliable source of information on things like opening foreign bank accounts? My impression is that other major countries do not have things like the FDIC (flawed though it is), so is one completely stuck with depending on reputation?
"The moral is: Trust no-one. Not S&P not your broker not me on a blog not anyone least of all your Gummint."
I almost agree, with the exemption that diversification into different assets and within each asset class (if possible) is your best bet in the long term.
The pizza party may very well move to Atlanta or one of its burbs Friday.
Atlanta Statesman
FDIC gets ready for bank failures
Regulator, insurer boosts its staff and provisions as it faces its biggest challenge in decades FDIC gets ready for bank failures
The Kansas enforcement actions are not indicative of a banking industry that's unsafe and unsound, said Chuck Marshall, manager of the financial institutions group at accounting and consulting firm Kennedy and Coe.
"It says we're in a different regulatory environment," he said. "Regulatory agencies are being proactive to protect the banks and depositors and to ensure that the guidelines that are out there for safe banking practices are followed."
"Our regulators are responding to circumstances that are far beyond the Wichita and Kansas markets."
there is a simple resolution of any future issue with Russia.
1) Wait till their economic slowdown diminishes their newfound confidence.
2) Invite them into the NATO club.
"The western position should be to hammer the demand curve of oil n gas to encourage renewable sources so dangerous men like Putin no longer have a bankroll to cover their shifty behavior (and start I'd investing in more productive uses of our resources and money)"
Certainly the struggle over resources and international influence plays a role. But worst of all is that the US and Russia present existential threats to one another, and until that is settled there will be no equilibrium.
You would think that our glorious leaders would take a minute to consider the longer term and try to work out a plausible trajectory that didn't involve nuclear weapons or a whole bunch of kids getting killed for no good reason. But, you could easily be faulted for thinking wrong.
I mean with their population being x4 of ours and having the GDP of only 1/2 of hours, i say its a long road ahead for them.
And the longer the road, the higher probability for embracing the western freedoms, etc.
I question how much real freedom(s) is (are) in the West. Much of that highly touted freedom is manipulating the masses into believing that they have it.
Even if you believe that there is much of a difference, which I personally don't, have a look at Singapore which has had a similar model to the new Chinese approach and it has stood the test of time, at least as long as Lee Kuan Yew is there.
If we triple our population, will we become the tree times the economic power we are today?
The answer is no, unless we improve the means of production to sustain life style of population on the similar or higher level.
"- I almost agree, with the exemption that diversification into different assets and within each asset class (if possible) is your best bet in the long term."
I'm a big believer in diversifying my losses. Rather than lose everything by investing 100% in financials I prefer:
A little bit in ABK/MBIA.
A little bit in the 2005 vintage real-estate spread between Las Vegas, Phoenix and IE California.
A little bit in 30 year treasuries.
And the rest in gold,silver and grains bought 60 days ago.
At the end of the day not losing everything in one asset classes takes a load off my chest and helps me sleep easier at night.
The fact is that the East is rising and West is declining. I call it the "great leveling", back to the future around 1800 when India and China had similar per capita incomes. It won't be a pleasant experience for the West and the U.S. in particular. It will also bring with it some interesting political challenges.
Well, Singapore is pretty much our friend.I am pretty sure their policies are different from mainland China. Besides it is much easier to run an autocratic capitalism with two million citizens rather then 1400 millions.
Besides If two countries reach certain level of economic development, it is much more beneficial for them to agree then disagree. So if China does become a powerhouse in 40 years, it might be only beneficial for us. The globalization is shaping the world beyond our well known geopolitical reality and in the future the powerhouse might be not the country that has the highest GDP but the country that has the largest number of multinational corporations and the highest number of new start up firms.
mock turtle,
If it's not this Friday it will be soon perhaps in a week or two. Today 8/25 (or make that yesterday as it's after midnight in TX) I had dinner (Ojeda's on Maple Ave.)to celebrate my birthday with some overworked FDICers who mentioned Hotlanta. Hush, hush of course. The FDIC is working on a plan to open what it calls a 'consolidated' office in CA probably in the Irvine area where it once had an office during the last crisis. In fact FDIC had consolidated offices all around the country that were later closed or merged into remaining offices. There seem to be plans in the works to open new consolidated offices with CA being most likely the first to open since it's being planned now. I would look for offices in all the hot states like Florida, Arizona, Georgia, etc. This requires a huge staff up.
Yea I'm only a parvenu in Russian politics and culture.
I actually took a replica knights helmut to General Lebed in 1996. I greatly appreciated his opinions and outlook and am still saddened at his death.
Men like Lebed, Putin, Medvedev and German Gref are the generational leaders of Russia. These men are so above what we have in the West, it will be no contest. Abramovitz needs to beef up his security a tich.
Yet they are not cold warriers. They remain defensive but with certain guilty pleasures like Cuba and the Venzis. No harm.
Russia needs another 8 years of good commodity prices to make the transition to a higher valued society.
I'm no expert. I was Baptized in the Russian Orthodox Church on Great And Holy Saturday in 1999. A poinant memory for me was turning around three times and spitting towards the West. The symbolism still haunts me.
As long as Europe has a gas and oil pipeline/pipelines for 60% of their energy needs, Russia has no fear.
Ukraina is a different matter, I fear. There WILL be no NATO on a Russian border.
Perhaps the FSB can undermine Ukrainian resolve but historically that has been a bloody border.
RE,
Just released a stream of consciousness into another sally, but I digress...
One of the goals of globalization was to increase trade, followed by righting the trade imbalances. More importantly, it will correct the standard of living imbalances too keenly felt by most countries. Everyone speaks of first world and third world countries. Where are the second world countries? I assume in this class we don't get grades, just a pass/fail.
which kind of a country would you prefer to live in
1, free market economy totalitarian political regime (think of one of the asian tigers)
or
2, socialist economic system, with free press, freedom of expression and to travel and ability to criticize all gov policy without reprisal (think czeckoslovakia under dubcek, before the russian tanks rolled i
p.s.
the beauty of market, no one knows what the best thing is. It's similar to perfect competition model, where there are no ECONOMIC profits in the long run.
you don't really give me much choice there, do you?
Since I do hide most of my views anyway, I guess I'll settle for China but with null government economic intervention. (which is not the case there, yet)
"even the best and the brightest are hard pressed to figure out where to invest short term"
I don't think the majority of the best and the brightest invest in the SHORT TERM.
Disclaimer: my definition of shirt term is 1/2 year or less, which might be different from FED/industry definition.
DrChaos your subversive views are too intellectual. I am reporting your web address to the authorities, which includes all 3 branches of the secret police.
"The cash market for corporate bonds is virtually closed. There is nothing in the way of new issues and cash market trading is not even sporadic. One seasoned salesman said that conditions feel as bad as they have anytime in the last six months. Thinking that he might be a good friend prone to a bit of hyperbole, I checked with a portfolio manager who concurred with that judgement."
FFDIC,
Interesting that the consolidated office would be in irvine. Seems like more bank failures will be in orange county than los angeles county. Then again, the inland empire is just a short drive away on the 91 due east and san diego is a beautiful drive along the coast on I-5. Maybe the OC is geographically more central than I first thought. Of course the FDIC has some experience in this realm.
"Ross, notes on capital flight would be interesting."
May I, May I, May I?
1) The globalization might make the Economic slow down spread faster then ever before, since capital has become so flexible, Etc.
2) The US firms are extremely skillful in turning a $ anywhere in the world, and as long as they continue to turn profits in the future...
so I suggest just to "DUCK and HIDE" for a while?
or what was it, they suggested to do during nuclear explosion?
p.s. I just checked the world market performance the other day, US market outperformed most large economies but brazil on YTD basis.
f-in-f
Irvine isn't definite but the FDIC may feel there is more local/retired/ex employees still living in the Irvine area hence the focus there. It's not always driven by where the banks are located as where the best or lowest price talent is located. That is the main reason the one remaining 'DRR' office is located in Dallas, TX instead of states with higher income demands. Labor is seen as cheap here or was when the office put down roots.
once we round up binladen and his cronies, before waterboarding, i say we strap em down and force em to watch 100 shows back to back...that 'll break em dow
That's my investing style talking - often a bit early on things, so generally looking at red ink for a while. E.g., I'm 15% in FXF and calmly awaiting CHF carry unwind. No, really - very calm.
So I'm shopping for survivor economies at the moment. Premature, no doubt.
Dr. Chaos, IIRC it was "duck and cover." My grammar school was too close to a primary target to worry about it much.
Ross,
I had a power nap old man. I'm ordering two entrees - shrimp enchiladas & pork tenderloin quesadillas plus a few ritas or swirls or both. That should set you back some. You know everybody is going to hate me if I teach you to link. We will all be reading esoteric Russian blogshit.
free market economy totalitarian political regime (think of one of the asian tigers)?
I never had a better time than under marital law Taiwan. Unfortunately I was just a student in those days. Unless you advocated independence, the world was your oyster. And today it's the most free Chinese society in history...
Chaos-- diversification is great but the hardest part is selling your winners to maintain it!
Someday everyone will agree that a mixed economy is inevitable. The struggle will be merely to define the margins. Competition has its place, but cooperation has plenty of efficiencies.
"Chaos-- diversification is great but the hardest part is selling your winners to maintain it!"
you schedule a date for rebalancing and go through no matter what the numbers are. (Just read about yale endowment, that's what they do = on of the reasons of their GREAT SUCCESS)
But did you ever consider the "degradation" in the comments is more a lack of real news- sorry, I mean NEWS!!!- and instead we have a playing out of what was predicted and expected here? We're kind of spinning our wheels waiting for something that will change our course from the predicted path and so we teeter into the banal.
Although I must say, when Tanta's in a good mood and slinging barbs as she was this morning, it's a thing of beauty; shock and awe, baby. Worth the price of admission.
The comments section here is officially dead. Burned to point of uselessness.
Congratulations, idiots, you have ruined what once offered a little quality. Now it offers none whatsoever. CR's posts still are worthy, but this neighborhood is rotten.
But did you ever consider the "degradation" in the comments is more a lack of real news- sorry, I mean NEWS!!!- and instead we have a playing out of what was predicted and expected here? We're kind of spinning our wheels waiting for something that will change our course from the predicted path and so we teeter into the banal.
Although I must say, when Tanta's in a good mood and slinging barbs as she was this morning, it's a thing of beauty; shock and awe, baby. Worth the price of admission.
sdtfs | 08.26.08 - 3:11 am | #
Was a herculean effort to watch as much olympics as humanly possible (put an ass dent in the couch ).
Bugger all 'quality' jobs, seems like there is a sinking lid policy going on in corporate NZ at present. Massive mexican stand off, employers freaked by speed of slow down and employees sitting tight. Been the stinkest winter in ages to add to the gloom, has rained every weekend since may.
Went to fiji for ten days and abused the pool bar, "kelley" the barman told me in his ten years never seen it that slow.
We have election in november too, so people are going a bit loopy.
Everything is okay, just waiting for the next shoe to drop. Been catching up on deferred 'projects'. Hoping nothing blindsides our landlording business and we come out with a jump. But the waiting is unpleasant.
On the bright side, my daughter's first day of kindergarten was successful- won't be long before I'm worried about boys.
It seems to me here, like the US, we are in a holding pattern waiting for election idiocy to end. When we have some type of political certainty then the log jam will be released ( as per your lack of real news comment).
I think the new year will be very interesting...
The wife and I are trying for our first at the moment, fun times ahead I think? But at the moment its a chore
When people asked "Do you want a boy or a girl?" I had a couple responses: "Do I get a choice?" or "It doesn't matter, we can have it surgically altered."
Part of the problem with the comments must be that you can read the truth more or less in the papers now. The news is more or less the tin foil of 6 months ago.
A sneak preview of the new list reveals that IndyMac is under "a close watch," and could face failure before Q42011.
In sports news, Mark Spitz' record of seven Gold Medals in a single Olympiad may be threatened at the London Games is 2012, and Bob Beamon's long jump record may fall as well.
I never had a better time than under marital law Taiwan.
This is the problem with autocracy. You can have a whole generation or two under a benevolent king. It looks great, compared to Republics, which are inconstant to a fault and prone to the madness and cruelty of crowds.
But the issues of talent selection, succession, dotage rule and the erosive effect of the politics of dictatorship on state apparatus quality are real. When they catch up to your state, they will maim the crap out of it. They're just so much farther away than the next budget crisis that the limited human ability to visualize the future makes them seem illusory.
A United Arab Emirates bank said on Tuesday it expected other Gulf Arab investors to back a lawsuit it has filed against major U.S. financial institutions over a fund that collapsed in the U.S. credit crisis.
Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank ADCB.AD, which is majority owned by the Abu Dhabi government, filed a suit against Morgan Stanley, the Bank of New York Mellon Corp, and ratings agencies Moody's and S&P on Monday, accusing them of fraud, the lawsuit showed.
The lawsuit filed in U.S. district court in Manhattan said a complex deal known as the Cheyne Structured Investment Vehicle (SIV) was marketed by the defendants as highly rated and reliable, but that they had hidden the risks.
Not only those banksters let the horses run away, they also torched the barn and danced naked wildly around that fire, had a big barbeque party with a lot of booze and now everybody is waking up with biiig hangover. There is no barn, no horses, nothing. AND NOW the barn&horse inspectors are SHOWING UP!?
The barn&horse inspectors have been watching this for at least 7 years. They know that the invisible hand is properly guiding the actions of the banksters and just in case they are wrong, they are willing to pay for the clean-up and restoration from the profits of the sheep farm next door.
Things are looking grim. Lady and kid from down the street knocked on my door. They can't sell their place and are headed to foreclosure. Husband about to freak out. Something you would not have expected in your own neighborhood. Need to keep an eye on that one ... could turn into domestic abuse or something.
Frist psot?
is this the beginning of the end? or the end of the beginning?
"Assume the position."
"Please sir, may I have another?"
Now we know what script the FDIC is following.
"Face it. You fucked up. You trusted us."
Good thing they're nipping these problems in the bud before they get out of control.
Barn Door.
Horse.
You mean they might declare some bankrupt banks.....well.....er....bankrupt? Or just close em when nobody is looking?
OT: Cindy McCain is enroute to Georgia...no not the close one, the one way over THERE.... One presumes the GOP thinks that if Russians can issue passports to Ossetians, then maybe McCain can give Georgians US presidential ballots. You know, for write in votes. Probably worth a try...LOL
IMB was off the list before it ever got on. How useful is it when the FDIC is keeping zombie banks from being declared dead indefinitely ?
FDIC - BRING OUT YOUR DEAD!
"But I'm not dead yet!"
"Shut up, you will be soon." [bonk!]
I keep asking me self---I say self "who would ever invest in a BankUnited; a WaMu: a fannie mae; a Corus bank; an Ambac; MBIA..GGP..GM Ford" This list seems endless and continues to get longer.
and I continue: self "Why..why.. haven't the regulators"...well you guys know the rest.
and self answers in a small voice
"it must be politics.. wait until after the elections...that's when the statemen will appear.
Oh foolish me.
jim -
At least the McCains have the guts to show their support for a democracy that has had the crap kicked out of it by a bunch of authoritarian thugs. Where the hell is Michelle??? Oh, backtracking on a long list of gaffes...
Are the tickers on my death list correct?
MBI - MBIA
ABK - Ambac
NCC - National City
CORS - Corus
"This is an ex-bank."
"No it isn't."
ECONOMIC VIEW; Finding The Mess Behind The Mess - NY Times
The fundamental [macroeconomic] problem in the American economy is that, for years, people treated rising asset prices as a substitute for personal savings.
Is it merely strange coincidence that irrational exuberance and ill-conceived public policy experiments always trace back to California?
The McCains have a house in Tblisi?
Cindy is probably checking the schackles on the staff.
Georgia a democracy? What a hoot. An extended tribe maybe.
MLM - That "democracy" was set up to get kicked by Condi and Cheney. McSame is just trying to make political hay on the bodies of dead Georgians...
Want to ask the Iraqi's about getting the crap kicked out of them by authoritarian thugs - like Blackwater.
And Cindy? bwaaaahhaahahahahaha.
But hey, how 'bout that smokin' economy? Wow - great job Bush boys. Ripping off Americans, profiting on false wars, and criminal behavior at a level that staggers the imagination.
even the sunset wasn't that great tonight...what in the hell is going on here.
McSame --- how original. How's this for original:
Joe Bama!!
Secret Squirrel - Double Ex-Double Cross
YouTube -
Are Dean Wormer and Niedermeyer working for the Fed. I thought Niedermeyer was fragged by his troops in Nam! (-;
Double Jeopardy! Round
The second round, Double Jeopardy!, works like the first round, with the following exceptions:
Six new categories are used.
There are two Daily Doubles in this round.[3]
The value of each clue is double what it was in the first round (except in the case of the 1990 Super Jeopardy! tournament, where values were 500, 1,000, 1,500, 2,000, and 2,500 points).
The contestant with the lowest amount of money at the end of the Jeopardy! Round makes the first selection in Double Jeopardy! If there is a tie for the trailing position, the player to the host's left selects first.
I'll take DeCodeR RingLeader 1 is a moron for $1,000.
A: DeCodeR RingLeader 1
Q: Who is a moron?
Correct!!! Select again.
michelle O made a hell of a speech
Barrack Huisein Bin Biden Obama vs. McSame and (yet to be announced) no blame.
Planning my Haj. Wife may be known as the Queen of the Cantons, Bahama Mama or the Singapore whor...ain't going there.
The Praetorian guard will need a consuliari. I volunteer.
Sorry Ross & wilson, I'm going to have to throw you back. I'm a trolling for astroturf jim, and it appears he's moved on to another blog...
wilson - nice post!
Cindy McCain is going to Georgia to what? NOTHING! She will accomplish nothing but some right wing spin.
Meanwhile her servants (slaves) keep busy at her 7 estates...
Hey, careful crispy, my creel is always big enough to hold a couple more.
Last month, the bank's president, Bruce Schwyhart, told the Wichita Business Journal the bank was raising up to $1.5 million in new capital following an examination by the OCC earlier this year. The regulator at the time was looking closely at the bank's commercial real estate portfolio, which is an area of concern for many banks nationally.
Schwyhart said examiners suggested the bank raise additional capital to keep up with its growth.
LOL!!
yawn, why do you girls take sides in the elite's silly popularity contests? So high school...
I actually hate both sides...
The following is an excerpt from a 10-Q SEC Filing, filed by PFF BANCORP INC on 8/11/2008
(4) Recent Developments
On June 13, 2008, we entered into a Memorandum of Understanding with the OTS. In
part, the Memorandum of Understanding formally prevents us from incurring,
renewing or rolling over any debt, formally limits our ability to make any
payments on existing debt (principal, interest or fees of any kind) and
prohibits us from declaring, making or paying dividends without OTS approval.
c and c
to be "fair and balanced",
at least one of those estates is a condo occupied by their daughter...I guess she could be considered a servant.
why do you girls take sides in the elite's silly popularity contests?
For me, it's really all about jim. I just hope he's OK.
MLM
Like your website and the work going on. One day, one person, three lives touched. Kudos.
Schwyhart said examiners suggested the bank raise additional capital to keep up with its growth.
Schwyhart needs examiners to suggest the bank raise additional capital to keep up with its growth?
And why is Schwyhart getting a paycheck?
Lax Oversight by State and Federal Regulators
Testimony
before the
National Commission on Fair Housing
and Equal Opportunity
The page cannot be found aspx?fileticket=8ZeI1MEbaBk%3D&tabid=3009&mid=6208
Federal banking regulators failed to reign in abusive practices at the lending institutions they regulated. Further, they prevented states from taking action against those institutions. Federally regulated lenders also took advantage of this lax oversight to originate huge volumes of loans. Depository institutions were able to use rules from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and other regulators to their benefit. The OCC, following a similar rule issued by the Office of Thrift Supervision, issued a statement providing an exemption for its member institutions from state anti-predatory lending laws. Not only did it provide pre-emption for the member bank, but the pre-emption extended to the affiliates and third party vendors of the member institution. Thus mortgage brokers doing business on behalf of the company and any subprime subsidiary would, according to the federal regulators, be exempt from state regulation and state lending laws that prohibited abusive lending practices. This was damaging to communities because many states that had responded more quickly than the federal government and established stringent anti-predatory lending statutes were unable to apply those statutes to the subprime affiliates of some federally regulated banks. However, the OCC rule and others like it were a boon to lenders who were able to make larger profit margins on subprime loans. Lenders, who for years had been telling civil rights and consumer advocacy groups that there was insufficient need for credit in minority neighborhoods, were now able to do high levels of lending through their subprime affiliates in central city neighborhoods much to the detriment of homeowners and buyers in minority neighborhoods. And while this was going on, the federal financial regulatory agencies did nothing except inhibit the efforts of state regulators to take any meaningful action. At the same time, FHEO failed in its responsibility to ensure that all federal departments work to affirmatively further fair housing.
MLM writes:
At least the McCains have the guts to show their support for a democracy that has had the crap kicked out of it by a bunch of authoritarian thugs
MLM
geoprgia broke away from USSR, a move the vast majority of its population supported
ossetia was in the process of breaking away from georgia, a move the vast majority of its population supported.
Russia boarders ossetia and each views the other as allies
US interest in Georgia has little to do with democracy and more to do with trans- Caspian oil.
McCain said we are all Georgians now, and you agree?
and Finally, you, MLM, are willing to go fight and possibly die and or send your adult children and the young men and women of the USA to kill russians, ossetians, and fight and die there?
for oil??... or you great love of democracy???
MLM, you have to understand that Jim is one of those Lambourghni Liberals that we have so many of here in the peoples glorius republic of chapel hill. He is just...what do the shrinks say?...projecting as in voting illegal aliens and graveyards. You know one of Vladimir Illiyich's "Useful Idiots".
Yay its like making the Deans list.
Rest assured you will never see the REAL problem list. Causes the runs. Better than Ex Lax.
I'll bet there will be a don't ask don't tell list before we sort this out.
Stop complaining. It was an above average sunset. And I have to watch it between two damn big trees.
Rest assured you will never see the REAL problem list.
Amen brother. I know all the large banks will be left off the list. But Downey may be on there...
And I have to watch it between two damn big trees
Cut the mothers dow
Ross, the website is not really mine, I'm just advertising it. I figured that once in a while a guy with a good heart and a significant income might decide to divert a little bit of dough from the OU scholarship fund and the Montessori educational effort to help elsewhere
.
However, I am involved with microfinance in other ways.
The trees belong to my neighbors, and I can't cut down my neighbors. Can I?
mock turtle & Anon64 - there's still room in the creel, hop (or, err flop) on in!
rich - two words:
copper....spikes
MLM,
No matter. If our banks did their DD like these folks, we wouldn't be where we are.
People forget that banking or whatever you call it is a personal trust business. It can't be done with FICO's and co-signers. Banking is good. It gives those with money a place to invest and those with realistic dreams a chance.
Hell, even my ancestor Robert the Devil needed a bank to plan the takeover of England!
Cindy McCain going to Georgia? That's freaking hilarious! What, she's going to strengthen their resolve by revealing the secrets of her plastic surgeon? You can't make this stuff up.
Anon64
you might have a good point
but i never got to hear it
cause all i read on your post was name calling,
Lambourghni Liberals
peoples glorius republic of chapel hill.
what do the shrinks say?...projecting
voting illegal aliens and graveyards.
one of Vladimir Illiyich's "Useful Idiots".
if you are a patriot, than i think you owe it to yourself and our country to make an intelligent argument that supports why we should put the USA on the line for Georgia
that way you stand a better chance of convincing those of us who still believe in reason
i could be won over to your position or MLMs if convinced
but not by insults
mock turtle - my only position is that "jim" showed up to astroturf the blog, and then mysteriously disappeared.
Don't mean noth'e
Rich,
I worked as a lineman for Ma Bell in the mid 60's to finance Univ.
My supervisor would always ask permission to trim or cut down a tree for the phone lines. When he was rejected, he would wear his tree trimming pants. One pocket had a hole and he would load it up with copper sulphate. He would judicially inspect the tree by walking around it.
Lo and behold! Tree died within 2 years. Magic Fate?
1991.
Median Californian Home Price in 2004: $450,000
Kidsdata: Data and Resources about the Health of Children
Median Californian Income in 2004: $58,327
Median Affordable House Price with 5%/30 years annual mortgage, no other debt: $203,000
And you wonder why you are where you are?
"michelle O made a hell of a speech"
She worked so hard in overtime at sounding genuine that she ended up coming across fake & corny.
Love that Oberman guy. He's so impartial. Even with that woody he's sporting for Barak to take a toke on.
What a charade. Good thing he doesn't stand a chance.
rich...under the cover of darkness pour poison on the trees. wear a ninja suit to make it more fun.
decodeR and MLM...there is something to be said for being brief. especially for those of us on handhelds
OK
It's official.
The comments section here is officially dead. Burned to point of uselessness.
Congratulations, idiots, you have ruined what once offered a little quality. Now it offers none whatsoever. CR's posts still are worthy, but this neighborhood is rotten.
Go fuck yourselves.
Oh yeah? Go eat a fucking squirrel pal. I'll be farting through silk in the meantime.
Anon,
It really means a lot when it comes from a person so august as yourself.
MLM
i have no problem with what you said...might disagree, but your approach was reasonable
i continue to think our economy and our security is held hostage, in part, by oil
Anonymous @ 11:35 pm
You got that right. I used to read the comments, but now all I read are the posts ... unless I can't sleep or something.
About Georgia and Armenia.
These are two great and noble cultures that just happen to be in the sphere of influence of Russia.
They are Christian nations by and large but are not considered Slavic Christians. This will be a problem.
It is obvious that Russia is playing a macho hand but it is the hand we dealt them.
The problem will not be centered in Georgia but in Ukraine, a torn country.
At least the FDIC is somewhat forthcoming about problem banks. Our State Dept. should be so honest.
What did we promise Georgia that we didn't deliver?
Hubris gets you killed.
"so august as yourself."
right, dumbass. I've been here since 2005, until 2008, this place was quality. Downhill ever since.
Just like the global economy.
please consider this
the iraq war probably will cost us 5000 lives 40,000 wounded many with lost limbs, and 1 to 2 trillion dollars.
if government and industry invested that money, and employed that many people to find the next best energy thing,,,we would be safer AND richer
Cindy going to Georgia? Russians don't like skinny ass. Send Michelle, she has that black booty thang goin on.
mock - I was really just trolling for jim. I could care less who wins because we're in for 5 years of hell (OK, anon, this is for you), due to the fact that per the WSJ article that CR references, so many freaking banks are going to fail or get propped up that no matter who gets the job things are going to suck.
Same thing happened at rgemonitor. Roubini's used to be high quality discussion in 05 and 06, then it became a flood of nasty squawkers who destroyed the comments. Then he forced registration.
CR should consider the same. What a waste.
Please no more bank shutdowns.
I can't take any more of Sheila's ad hoc mortgage write-downs.
Unless, of course, one of the banks she shuts down just happens to be the one where I send my mortgage check.
(Which will be late again). LOL
Anonymous, have you ever considered that the majority of the stuff that this site was devoted to exposing is now pretty much MSM material now. The only finance mystery left in the shadows is the CDS black hole. Like to hear some juicy tidbits from that dark corner of the ponzi finance world.
A month or so ago there was a bond trader that came and shared some current inside baseball stuff but aside from that... just 1 predictable flop after another.
Adam Smith would have had nothing at all to do with Bluto Blutarsky.
Just like AOL the political vermin start creeping in with a nastiness born of a polarization fostered by the MSM. As I have seen stated here in the past DNFTT, they will go away, just bore them with the ugly details of what's in store.
ooo tomorrow is the big day when THIS list gets updated!
Troubled Bank List as of 03/31/2008
anonymous at 1143
i lurked here for two years before posting
i appreciate what you said, and there are solutions to be had with registration etc 9moderation)
but the free flow here is kinda "live" and wild west, and that can be good if "WE" handle bad posts better
Yeah this has become an irrelevant pissing contest now fueled by twits. I don't give a CRAP about your political opinions, you get one vote like I do. Take it outside, you're not clever.
Ok,
After the first 40 comments, stuff becomes stale. You can only say 'total idiots' so many times in so many ways.
A little largess is not harmful. I have learned how to carb up a family from dryfly and many other useful, practical things.
I had lunch with FFDIC because I was interested in his knowledge.
Well, we should try more to stick to the thread. But tangents happen. Blogs are real life and not a lecture hall. Communities are to educate one another. Such is life.
Ok. Sheila is a greasy haired miscreant being paid by evil neocons.
What else is there to say? I keep hoping for a 'capital flight' thread but one can only bail fodder for so long.
Anyone want to discuss Herman Kahn and his 1982 book "The Coming Boom' and what he saw happening after 2000?
Interesting read.
still good info in the comments. I could live with out the profanity...especially the f bomb.
Russians think of Georgians as swarthy thieves and Ukranians as a bunch of hicks, so why do they care about either one?
Oil & gas
Too many folks in power mistakenly think the only reason the soviet union collapsed was due to money problems, and now that they have it things will go back to the way things should be.
The western position should be to hammer the demand curve of oil n gas to encourage renewable sources so dangerous men like Putin no longer have a bankroll to cover their shifty behavior (and start I'd investing in more productive uses of our resources and money)
I'm pretty political, but I get enough at other blogs. I come here for financial news. But really, there isn't any excess of political comments here; when there is, it seems to self correct.
Remember, a free-flow of comments will ensure the exchange of squirrel-cookery tips.
By the way, it's night and there was big first-lady news tonight--what with Michelle's speech and Cindy's airborne mission to Georgia (gad, I hope she's got that sling from the hand-shake injury off by now).
Ross well said, I may even take you off my dipshit list.
uncle toby
the political slant is interesting to me if it relates directly to economics
Lefty
i would never argue gun control abortion etc here, but i would hope the geopolitical oil stuff would be ok with everyone if its well reasoned, and esp during weekends and late night!
if you feel im part of the problem, ill try to tone it dow
Canuck - If I see you all starting to hold hands and warming up for kumbaya, I'll definitely become concerned.
Ross - OK, let's talk capital flight, as long as the thread has been derailed (mea maxima culpa, but I didn't realize how little it would take).
Oooh Canuk, bless you.
I'm just a half wit among great wits and I have an 'age' problem to overcome. Like typing with more than 2 fingers and learning how to link.
I tell you that I never laugh soooo hard as when I read erudite comments here. We need our own cartoonist to put comments on paper. Call it CR and Tanta on the glod blog.
Daniel writes:
ooo tomorrow is the big day when THIS list gets updated! (see 1154pm)
Daniel
im confused why isnt WaMu on the list, or is it?
also what's your level of TRUST in the author?
anon,
I'm sure there's been anon here since the first set of comments, but 3 years of posting without even bothering to come up with even a fake handle menas your "insight" is worth as much as my nephew's pog collection.
If you don't like the comments either grow a pair and start your own blog, grow up and use a handle so others can have an intelligent conversation with you or FOAD.
YOU LIKE ME. YOU REALLY LIKE ME.
gripping Oskar with both hands and peeing her pants.
Politics and economics are inseperable. The nature of the field (human subjects) prevents the kind of rigorous, randomized/ controlled experiments found in the hard sciences.
Economics and finance deal with core productive activities of humanity, as does politics. It is therefore inevitable that politics "corrupts" economics and vice versa.
Further, I think in an age where the Chinese are lending us trillions of dollars and the Russians have control of some of the largest remaining oil reserves, geopolitics is maybe the most important aspect of economics.
And on that note allow me to plug one of Jim Lobe's recent posts. Interesting reading:
LobeLog.com » Blog Archive » Two Articles on Georgia Crisis Well Worth Reading
Well that link was a bit screwy. Try this:
LobeLog.com » Blog Archive » Two Articles on Georgia Crisis Well Worth Reading
Wheat & chaff, folks, wheat & chaff.
Don't throw out the baby with the bathwater.
Ross, once you've cleaned up that embarassing puddle, maybe you could lead off a capital flight conversation by tossing out a prediction on how long it will be until capital controls are imposed.
Thats better, now please stand, and turn you hymnals to page 38...
tranches of lunest
i enjoyed reading the first link!
Lefty, I'm looking for a punch supplier for next week's church social, any way you can help?
Hard to find the baby amongst all the dirty water. Maybe 8 months ago someone commented that this blog has become a bit of a victim of its own success. I somewhat agree. Did anyone even read the article?
Anyone wanna guess that someone political is going to argue for the FOIA to not cover bank regulation due to the threat of causing a panic?
lefty, what?
page 38!!
i dont know, sounds second amendment to me
(confession, im a libral and a life time member of the NRA!!
YLSP
yes i did
and by the way do you recall FFDIC posting a consent decree reached between the OTS and vinyard bank
sounds like more of this in our future
the comptrollers office was dictating bank policy and hiring practices...sounded like to me!!
"Politics and economics are inseperable."
I disagree. The free market is a chaotic system, due to huge number of unknowns and inputs. And any chaotic system is random in nature. What it means - you can't be very accurate in predicting the markets, therefore any planning, and that's what politicians ultimately try to sell us, FAILS.
As of resources, it is not necessary the abundance that sets the weather but rather the price of any given resource. We depended on OIL not because there are no alternatives but because it has been so ridiculously CHEAP.
As of our dependance on China let's not forget that they depend on us as MUCH or even more.
First let's wait until CHina GDP is at least 50% of ours, and only than it will make sense to call it a mighty tiger.
Ok,
Tranches, well said.
Since it is late and no-one will ever, I hope, read this (tree martulies and tree brandys) I will explain in abbreviated detail my first stock purchase in 1967.
As a new 'customer's man' sitting in the Plaza office of Harris Upham, I was bored answering the phones and taking orders for 100 big steel a quarter under.
I got into the habit of going to the library to do research with S&P sheets and other vendors.
The last bubble had been in bowling stocks, Brunswick and AMF. Lots of tech companies like Control Data and a squirelly company called Hydrometals that had all run from single digits in 64 to tripple digits and back again by 67.
This Hydrometals stock was interresting on the surface. It went from $2 to $100 and was now back at 5.
Hmm said I, might go back up. It looked like a tech play with the name Hydrometals.
I bought 100 at $5 and a quarter. The stock promptly traded down to 3 something.
Not one to take defeat lighty, I got the S&P sheet and called the CEO to find out how is business. To my suprise, he took my call. His name was Frank Zarb. Look him up. He 'retired' as head of the American Exchange. Good politico.
Come to find out, Hydrometals was a Dallas plumbing supply mfg.
I paid for the stock with a lien against my 61 Merc Comet.
The moral is: Trust no-one. Not S&P not your broker not me on a blog not anyone least of all your Gummint.
Everyone sells or at least touts their book. Even the Saintly Buffet.
Class dismissed.
Agree completely with Lunesta. As an econ. major I learned quickly not to buy into the notion that you can quantify human behavior. Fortunately, Congress is too smart to get suckered by pure free-market theory, which is why we have minimum wages, relatively safe working conditions, public schools, etc. Again, for those who don't want any kind of housing bill, let's start with getting rid of the tax-deductibility of mortgage interest.
I'm curious about do-it-myself capital flight. Is there a disinterested and reliable source of information on things like opening foreign bank accounts? My impression is that other major countries do not have things like the FDIC (flawed though it is), so is one completely stuck with depending on reputation?
Too close to home?
"The moral is: Trust no-one. Not S&P not your broker not me on a blog not anyone least of all your Gummint."
Billy - when you depend on the FDIC, you're also depending on reputation.
p.s.
Ross, nice story though, I did the same in 01, damn at the time I thought that analyst covered in CNN make sense.
:rofl:
Even the Saintly Buffet.
I had brunch at the Saintly Buffet on Sunday. It was alright, except the French toast was a little cold.
The pizza party may very well move to Atlanta or one of its burbs Friday.
Atlanta Statesman
FDIC gets ready for bank failures
Regulator, insurer boosts its staff and provisions as it faces its biggest challenge in decades
FDIC gets ready for bank failures
"McCain said we are all Georgians now, and you agree?"
But can we drink like Georgians? Georgians can drink Russians under the table.
If you can't keep up with the tamada you can't be a Georgian.
Ross?
Are we also all Mingrelians and Schvans?
still good info in the comments. I could live with out the profanity...especially the f bomb.
Dr. Chaos,
First let's wait until China GDP is at least 50% of ours, and only than it will make sense to call it a mighty tiger.
You might have missed the big event. Based on PPP, China has already passed the 50% mark.
List of countries by GDP (PPP) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Well, I agree with the last of 3 statements:
The Kansas enforcement actions are not indicative of a banking industry that's unsafe and unsound, said Chuck Marshall, manager of the financial institutions group at accounting and consulting firm Kennedy and Coe.
"It says we're in a different regulatory environment," he said. "Regulatory agencies are being proactive to protect the banks and depositors and to ensure that the guidelines that are out there for safe banking practices are followed."
"Our regulators are responding to circumstances that are far beyond the Wichita and Kansas markets."
As one of three offenders on the thread, you have my commitment to refrain from any more f'ing bomb throwing.
there is a simple resolution of any future issue with Russia.
1) Wait till their economic slowdown diminishes their newfound confidence.
2) Invite them into the NATO club.
"The western position should be to hammer the demand curve of oil n gas to encourage renewable sources so dangerous men like Putin no longer have a bankroll to cover their shifty behavior (and start I'd investing in more productive uses of our resources and money)"
Certainly the struggle over resources and international influence plays a role. But worst of all is that the US and Russia present existential threats to one another, and until that is settled there will be no equilibrium.
And those are 2007 numbers. They will pass us soon, in gold or oil PPP.
"First let's wait until China GDP is at least 50% of ours"
Sorry, I really meant 50% per Capita GDP.
Either way.
Per capita is really not terribly significant if you are talking real economic power. Who cares if Luxembourg and Qatar have very high per capita GDP?
You would think that our glorious leaders would take a minute to consider the longer term and try to work out a plausible trajectory that didn't involve nuclear weapons or a whole bunch of kids getting killed for no good reason. But, you could easily be faulted for thinking wrong.
I mean with their population being x4 of ours and having the GDP of only 1/2 of hours, i say its a long road ahead for them.
And the longer the road, the higher probability for embracing the western freedoms, etc.
"Per capita is really not terribly significant"
I know another country that called it insignificant - USSR.
I question how much real freedom(s) is (are) in the West. Much of that highly touted freedom is manipulating the masses into believing that they have it.
Even if you believe that there is much of a difference, which I personally don't, have a look at Singapore which has had a similar model to the new Chinese approach and it has stood the test of time, at least as long as Lee Kuan Yew is there.
If we triple our population, will we become the tree times the economic power we are today?
The answer is no, unless we improve the means of production to sustain life style of population on the similar or higher level.
"- I almost agree, with the exemption that diversification into different assets and within each asset class (if possible) is your best bet in the long term."
I'm a big believer in diversifying my losses. Rather than lose everything by investing 100% in financials I prefer:
A little bit in ABK/MBIA.
A little bit in the 2005 vintage real-estate spread between Las Vegas, Phoenix and IE California.
A little bit in 30 year treasuries.
And the rest in gold,silver and grains bought 60 days ago.
At the end of the day not losing everything in one asset classes takes a load off my chest and helps me sleep easier at night.
Or unless we decide to consume 75% less.
The fact is that the East is rising and West is declining. I call it the "great leveling", back to the future around 1800 when India and China had similar per capita incomes. It won't be a pleasant experience for the West and the U.S. in particular. It will also bring with it some interesting political challenges.
2 ways to look at it. Yes we must all share a pie, but they might cook it better, benefiting all.
If they use the world's oil to come up with efficient solar-powered cars, we should be thrilled.
Ross,
I'll teach you to link if you will buy lunch at Gloria's again. Deal?
interesting that FFDIC is "long" pizza in atlanta...
and above that in Daniels post the "not official FDIC list of stressed institutions" has quite a number in georgia (the state not the country.
hmmm
If they use the world's oil to come up with efficient solar-powered cars, we should be thrilled.
Lefty, you'd better cut yogi off.
FFDIC is on a hot streak. He hasn't been wrong yet.
I take any of his hints as gospel.
Give China their chance, they've invented just about everything.
Well, Singapore is pretty much our friend.I am pretty sure their policies are different from mainland China. Besides it is much easier to run an autocratic capitalism with two million citizens rather then 1400 millions.
Besides If two countries reach certain level of economic development, it is much more beneficial for them to agree then disagree. So if China does become a powerhouse in 40 years, it might be only beneficial for us. The globalization is shaping the world beyond our well known geopolitical reality and in the future the powerhouse might be not the country that has the highest GDP but the country that has the largest number of multinational corporations and the highest number of new start up firms.
RE
yeah
FFDIC is perceptive and connected
mock turtle,
If it's not this Friday it will be soon perhaps in a week or two. Today 8/25 (or make that yesterday as it's after midnight in TX) I had dinner (Ojeda's on Maple Ave.)to celebrate my birthday with some overworked FDICers who mentioned Hotlanta. Hush, hush of course. The FDIC is working on a plan to open what it calls a 'consolidated' office in CA probably in the Irvine area where it once had an office during the last crisis. In fact FDIC had consolidated offices all around the country that were later closed or merged into remaining offices. There seem to be plans in the works to open new consolidated offices with CA being most likely the first to open since it's being planned now. I would look for offices in all the hot states like Florida, Arizona, Georgia, etc. This requires a huge staff up.
Privet Pav,
Yea I'm only a parvenu in Russian politics and culture.
I actually took a replica knights helmut to General Lebed in 1996. I greatly appreciated his opinions and outlook and am still saddened at his death.
Men like Lebed, Putin, Medvedev and German Gref are the generational leaders of Russia. These men are so above what we have in the West, it will be no contest. Abramovitz needs to beef up his security a tich.
Yet they are not cold warriers. They remain defensive but with certain guilty pleasures like Cuba and the Venzis. No harm.
Russia needs another 8 years of good commodity prices to make the transition to a higher valued society.
I'm no expert. I was Baptized in the Russian Orthodox Church on Great And Holy Saturday in 1999. A poinant memory for me was turning around three times and spitting towards the West. The symbolism still haunts me.
As long as Europe has a gas and oil pipeline/pipelines for 60% of their energy needs, Russia has no fear.
Ukraina is a different matter, I fear. There WILL be no NATO on a Russian border.
Perhaps the FSB can undermine Ukrainian resolve but historically that has been a bloody border.
RE,
Just released a stream of consciousness into another sally, but I digress...
One of the goals of globalization was to increase trade, followed by righting the trade imbalances. More importantly, it will correct the standard of living imbalances too keenly felt by most countries. Everyone speaks of first world and third world countries. Where are the second world countries? I assume in this class we don't get grades, just a pass/fail.
"At the end of the day not losing everything in one asset classes takes a load off my chest and helps me sleep easier at night."
well if you hand pick only the few asset classes that you view as possible value, it is not the same as efficient diversification.
Anyway, I do the same for my own funds; I just can't resist the fun of it.
Also I never said DIVERSIFICATION is the best thing, I said it is the best BET.
DrChaos
just a thought game.
which kind of a country would you prefer to live in
1, free market economy totalitarian political regime (think of one of the asian tigers)
or
2, socialist economic system, with free press, freedom of expression and to travel and ability to criticize all gov policy without reprisal (think czeckoslovakia under dubcek, before the russian tanks rolled i
Shorting anything in the third quarter can't be a bad idea, except for the day Paulson buys Fanny and Freddie.
p.s.
the beauty of market, no one knows what the best thing is. It's similar to perfect competition model, where there are no ECONOMIC profits in the long run.
"the beauty of market, no one knows what the best thing is"
especially under these circumstances, even the best and the brightest are hard pressed to figure out where to invest short term
mock turtle
you don't really give me much choice there, do you?
Since I do hide most of my views anyway, I guess I'll settle for China but with null government economic intervention. (which is not the case there, yet)
lefty
the problem with Q3 shorts is the market is famous for anticipating growth, and all the money has to go somewhere even if PE ratios are lousy
even the best and the brightest are hard pressed to figure out where to invest short term
I'll be in the market for a liquor store, once I've shorted the heck out of anything and everything the day that Paulson buys Fannie and Freddie.
"even the best and the brightest are hard pressed to figure out where to invest short term"
I don't think the majority of the best and the brightest invest in the SHORT TERM.
Disclaimer: my definition of shirt term is 1/2 year or less, which might be different from FED/industry definition.
Dr Chaos
thanks for being a good sport
it was just for fun
i'd probably pick open socialist country believing free political discourse could change the system toward private enterprise and markets!?
of course one could argue that the free markets might change the asian tigers pol system...interesting model
Ross, notes on capital flight would be interesting.
But where offshore? Switzerland? Dubai? South Africa?
Ooooowe a liquer store.
I always (in high school) envisioned marrying a nempho whose father owned a liquer store.
They got it wrong in collage. It wasn't free sex and nickel beer. Free beer and nickle sex was/is always will be cheaper.
MLM
ok, but the future of the buck just scares the hell outta me...
deficit, debt, unfunded and underfunded social programs, etc
i just have a real hard time seeing how dollar denominated investments make out ???
Liquor store investments are not denominated in dollars, they are denominated in pints and quarts (especially this late at night).
fyi
shanghai given back all the gains from past week
all the rest in asian markets in the red
tomorrow will be interesting day at the new york stock exchange
bet "they" dont want back to back neg 2 % down...see if they can hold the line
DrChaos your subversive views are too intellectual. I am reporting your web address to the authorities, which includes all 3 branches of the secret police.
Does that change your answer?
yeah
and you rely on VOLUME sales
OT (but what the hell):
"The cash market for corporate bonds is virtually closed. There is nothing in the way of new issues and cash market trading is not even sporadic. One seasoned salesman said that conditions feel as bad as they have anytime in the last six months. Thinking that he might be a good friend prone to a bit of hyperbole, I checked with a portfolio manager who concurred with that judgement."
[hat tip]
Hi Burnside,
No need to worry right now about capital flight and exchange controls.
We can flesh this out down the road a piece.
Capital flight isn't on page 23 yet. When it gets to page 8, we should be long gone.
Capital flight and exchange controls are just the ultimate endgame of the darkness at noon in the desert.
Ross et al
Madonna's new Sticky & Sweet tour
Candy Shop / My Sugar is Raw
YouTube -
Waiting for wood...
FFDIC,
Interesting that the consolidated office would be in irvine. Seems like more bank failures will be in orange county than los angeles county. Then again, the inland empire is just a short drive away on the 91 due east and san diego is a beautiful drive along the coast on I-5. Maybe the OC is geographically more central than I first thought. Of course the FDIC has some experience in this realm.
"Ross, notes on capital flight would be interesting."
May I, May I, May I?
1) The globalization might make the Economic slow down spread faster then ever before, since capital has become so flexible, Etc.
2) The US firms are extremely skillful in turning a $ anywhere in the world, and as long as they continue to turn profits in the future...
so I suggest just to "DUCK and HIDE" for a while?
or what was it, they suggested to do during nuclear explosion?
p.s. I just checked the world market performance the other day, US market outperformed most large economies but brazil on YTD basis.
Which market, and using what benchmark?
f-in-f
Irvine isn't definite but the FDIC may feel there is more local/retired/ex employees still living in the Irvine area hence the focus there. It's not always driven by where the banks are located as where the best or lowest price talent is located. That is the main reason the one remaining 'DRR' office is located in Dallas, TX instead of states with higher income demands. Labor is seen as cheap here or was when the office put down roots.
Capital flight and exchange controls are just the ultimate endgame of the darkness at noon in the desert.
Naw, it gets worse after that, but you really won't want to be around to see it.
Wood, like love, is a four letter word...
Speaking of sweet and sticky, I'll be right back in 2 and 2.
FFDIC
bush got it wrong
he said they hate us cause wee are free.
that aint it
they hate us cause of madonna
once we round up binladen and his cronies, before waterboarding, i say we strap em down and force em to watch 100 shows back to back...that 'll break em dow
You are aware that the original "pursuit of property" was changed to "...happiness"
Hey FFDIC,
I love Madonna but she is to old for me;-)
Like Cher though. A Georgian with CLASS.
Go to bed. Your B-day is over.
Glorias fer sure. My treat if you teach me how to linc..k.
Premium content | Economist.com
"The last bubble was in bowling stocks"...LOL! Excellent points made from that little tale...
yogi writes:
You are aware that the original "pursuit of property" was changed to "...happiness"
thats cause ben franklin wanted to make sure thee free love thing was guaranteed along with property...get your happiness where ever you can find it
get your happiness where ever you can find it
But not with Madonna, because you will scare your family and pets.
Ross, I expect you're right.
That's my investing style talking - often a bit early on things, so generally looking at red ink for a while. E.g., I'm 15% in FXF and calmly awaiting CHF carry unwind. No, really - very calm.
So I'm shopping for survivor economies at the moment. Premature, no doubt.
Dr. Chaos, IIRC it was "duck and cover." My grammar school was too close to a primary target to worry about it much.
Ross,
I had a power nap old man. I'm ordering two entrees - shrimp enchiladas & pork tenderloin quesadillas plus a few ritas or swirls or both. That should set you back some. You know everybody is going to hate me if I teach you to link. We will all be reading esoteric Russian blogshit.
https://gloriasrestaurants.com/dinnermenu.php
At the end of "Failsafe" they actually showed a quick cut of a park that I played in growing up. That image stuck.
MLM wrote
But not with Madonna, because you will scare your family and pets.
---hell with scaring the pets, she scares me shitless
Socialism for large scale human projects works so much better than it gets credit for.
Hey Panda,
True story!!!
Our Nippon Brothers were learning to bowl in the 50's and 60's. AMF and Brunswick were valued on the backlog of lanes!
Swear. Not making it up.
Look at the golf craze in Japan in the 80's...Samo samo.
Da svidanya you'll.
Yogi
yeh, like grand coulee dam and race to the moon
then other projects not so much
i vote for a mixed economy, many things done best privately,
but sure dont want private armies and police...yikes
The Mr. Marx talked about overproduction a lot. The guy was your typical neo-classical economist; poor guy has been so misunderstood.
free market economy totalitarian political regime (think of one of the asian tigers)?
I never had a better time than under marital law Taiwan. Unfortunately I was just a student in those days. Unless you advocated independence, the world was your oyster. And today it's the most free Chinese society in history...
Chaos-- diversification is great but the hardest part is selling your winners to maintain it!
Someday everyone will agree that a mixed economy is inevitable. The struggle will be merely to define the margins. Competition has its place, but cooperation has plenty of efficiencies.
the USSR did not adhere to Marx
not that it would have done them much good
people must have incentives
Including the wage earner
Which is the guts of Marx's message, that the line worker should be cut into the bottom line in a meaningful fashion.
yogi
would be nice if...
good luck
and good night to all
"Chaos-- diversification is great but the hardest part is selling your winners to maintain it!"
you schedule a date for rebalancing and go through no matter what the numbers are. (Just read about yale endowment, that's what they do = on of the reasons of their GREAT SUCCESS)
"people must have incentives"
x 2
2 Visitors Online
That represents how boring this group of posters has bee
Late to this party-
But did you ever consider the "degradation" in the comments is more a lack of real news- sorry, I mean NEWS!!!- and instead we have a playing out of what was predicted and expected here? We're kind of spinning our wheels waiting for something that will change our course from the predicted path and so we teeter into the banal.
Although I must say, when Tanta's in a good mood and slinging barbs as she was this morning, it's a thing of beauty; shock and awe, baby. Worth the price of admission.
It's official.
The comments section here is officially dead. Burned to point of uselessness.
Congratulations, idiots, you have ruined what once offered a little quality. Now it offers none whatsoever. CR's posts still are worthy, but this neighborhood is rotten.
Go fuck yourselves.
Anonymous | 08.25.08 - 11:35 pm | #
But did you ever consider the "degradation" in the comments is more a lack of real news- sorry, I mean NEWS!!!- and instead we have a playing out of what was predicted and expected here? We're kind of spinning our wheels waiting for something that will change our course from the predicted path and so we teeter into the banal.
Although I must say, when Tanta's in a good mood and slinging barbs as she was this morning, it's a thing of beauty; shock and awe, baby. Worth the price of admission.
sdtfs | 08.26.08 - 3:11 am | #
true dat!
andy- how's the job search going?
sdtfs
quite shite to be honest.
Was a herculean effort to watch as much olympics as humanly possible (put an ass dent in the couch
).
Bugger all 'quality' jobs, seems like there is a sinking lid policy going on in corporate NZ at present. Massive mexican stand off, employers freaked by speed of slow down and employees sitting tight. Been the stinkest winter in ages to add to the gloom, has rained every weekend since may.
Went to fiji for ten days and abused the pool bar, "kelley" the barman told me in his ten years never seen it that slow.
We have election in november too, so people are going a bit loopy.
Earning season here, lots of red ink!
How are you?
Everything is okay, just waiting for the next shoe to drop. Been catching up on deferred 'projects'. Hoping nothing blindsides our landlording business and we come out with a jump. But the waiting is unpleasant.
On the bright side, my daughter's first day of kindergarten was successful- won't be long before I'm worried about boys.
sdtfs
It seems to me here, like the US, we are in a holding pattern waiting for election idiocy to end. When we have some type of political certainty then the log jam will be released ( as per your lack of real news comment).
I think the new year will be very interesting...
The wife and I are trying for our first at the moment, fun times ahead I think? But at the moment its a chore
Good luck, I'm off to bed.
When people asked "Do you want a boy or a girl?" I had a couple responses: "Do I get a choice?" or "It doesn't matter, we can have it surgically altered."
mock turtle, if you come back before the next thread:
the "unofficial troubled banks list" is from Obsedian of TickerForum.org. I am hoping the updated version has WaMu on it.
andy in NZ... gonna come tour NZ and find some relatives to crash with. Maybe start a business and stay for good.
Anonymous is right. Comments have deteriorated to the point they're not worth sifting through.
Here's a tip that will improve the thread for everybody: resist the temptation to make what you think is clever repartee.
Please. Because it isn't.
Part of the problem with the comments must be that you can read the truth more or less in the papers now. The news is more or less the tin foil of 6 months ago.
A sneak preview of the new list reveals that IndyMac is under "a close watch," and could face failure before Q42011.
In sports news, Mark Spitz' record of seven Gold Medals in a single Olympiad may be threatened at the London Games is 2012, and Bob Beamon's long jump record may fall as well.
I never had a better time than under marital law Taiwan.
This is the problem with autocracy. You can have a whole generation or two under a benevolent king. It looks great, compared to Republics, which are inconstant to a fault and prone to the madness and cruelty of crowds.
But the issues of talent selection, succession, dotage rule and the erosive effect of the politics of dictatorship on state apparatus quality are real. When they catch up to your state, they will maim the crap out of it. They're just so much farther away than the next budget crisis that the limited human ability to visualize the future makes them seem illusory.
Here's a tip that will improve the thread for everybody: resist the temptation to make what you think is clever repartee.
Please. Because it isn't. - unirealist
Your opinion is noted.
A United Arab Emirates bank said on Tuesday it expected other Gulf Arab investors to back a lawsuit it has filed against major U.S. financial institutions over a fund that collapsed in the U.S. credit crisis.
Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank ADCB.AD, which is majority owned by the Abu Dhabi government, filed a suit against Morgan Stanley, the Bank of New York Mellon Corp, and ratings agencies Moody's and S&P on Monday, accusing them of fraud, the lawsuit showed.
The lawsuit filed in U.S. district court in Manhattan said a complex deal known as the Cheyne Structured Investment Vehicle (SIV) was marketed by the defendants as highly rated and reliable, but that they had hidden the risks.
UAE bank eyes support in lawsuit over U.S. fund
| Reuters
Bagholders going to court, get those bastards.
UAE seeking legal redress from market manipulation? The irony.
New home sales in 2 hours. Put me down for a high end 532,000 SAAR.
Not only those banksters let the horses run away, they also torched the barn and danced naked wildly around that fire, had a big barbeque party with a lot of booze and now everybody is waking up with biiig hangover. There is no barn, no horses, nothing. AND NOW the barn&horse inspectors are SHOWING UP!?
Case-Shiller better than expected, time to load up on real estate!
News Break:
S&P/Case Shiller dropped a record 15.4% in Q208 vs Q@07
10 city composite declined 17%
20 city composite declined 15.9%
clearly housing has bottomed.
The barn&horse inspectors have been watching this for at least 7 years. They know that the invisible hand is properly guiding the actions of the banksters and just in case they are wrong, they are willing to pay for the clean-up and restoration from the profits of the sheep farm next door.
Case-Schiller Q2 numbers out--down 14.2% YOY
Housing Data Signal Small Pickup - WSJ.com
Gawd, should refresh befroe posting, and read more closely--15.4% down YOY is correct.
YTL is better at this than me...
Here's an interesting map of foreclosure activity for July 2008; not sure what is their metric:
Search Foreclosures Nationwide | RealtyTrac?
In some areas they are saying 1 in 106 houses are in foreclosure for July alone. That starts adding up fast over time.
Things are looking grim. Lady and kid from down the street knocked on my door. They can't sell their place and are headed to foreclosure. Husband about to freak out. Something you would not have expected in your own neighborhood. Need to keep an eye on that one ... could turn into domestic abuse or something.
"I was Baptized in the Russian Orthodox Church on Great And Holy Saturday in 1999."
Ross,
Christ be with you now and forever.
I'm Catholic myself, but we know that the Orthodox Church is a true Church, and you are my brother in Christ.
Pavel
This election is a first-class nothingburger; goodness I miss the olympics.
Once the brass comes back from holiday then what?
J go long Lorazepam and Domestic Violence Counseling centers....
Once a dork, always a dork. I can't see this crap continuing.
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