FDIC Problem Bank List Increases

in

The pump monkeys really don't want SPX to close below 1266.

The real number is 78 billion 2nd quarter, 26 billion 1st quarter - 200% increase in a quarter are the sorts of numbers that should really spark a Dow rally.

Dummy question... do they actually publish the names on the list or is that kept private?

Entirely baseless speculation: Does the FDIC have the auditing chops to correctly value and model modern financially engineered products?

For example, what exactly is the risk for a large bank holding synthetic CDOs (composed of credit default swap agreements).

I would imagine that the FDIC staff is trained and most capable of recognizing problems in 'traditional' loan portfolios.

@FFDIC: What would you is the FDIC's ability in valuing unusual items on bank balance sheets?

Sustained collapse of earnings - this is going to get interesting. Typically one would see a few stronger players sweeping up the weaker ones - but put yourself into the shoes of a strong one: Buy a corpse with unknown risks and spend precious capital or wait for the FDIC to butcher and buy filet. And even if one doesn't buy there will be some growth as others fall away.

RhodesianRidgebackinAZ, they keep it private - kind of a "double secret probation".

Best Wishes.

Fannie, Freddie May Avoid Bailout After All: Analysts
http://www.cnbc.com/id/26407759

But after Freddie Mac completed a $2 billion debt sale on Monday, several Wall Street firms said the government-sponsored companies have an adequate capital cushion to absorb billions of dollars in losses from soured mortgages in the near term, meaning a federal bailout could be avoided.


Famous last words.

I like to see who is on the "fu&*ed list".

Some CRE data from the report:

% C&D loans, 20-89 days past due: 2.01
% C&D loans, 90+ days past due : 6.08
% C&D loans, charged off : 1.66

Squueze the rest of the banks so hard until they too end up on the list? Not likely. They will get funds from the Treasury, until RTC V2 gets hatched in DC.

Of course, we don't want to write down any of those preferred Fannie/Freddie shares to market now, do we. At least, not until we can pass the losses on to the taxpayer.

Fed Officials Agree Next Rate Move Will Be Increase

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a9WciEKXXFr8&refer=home

More spin.

Well on the $78 billion number alone it's pretty clear WAMU and Wachovia are not on the list. IndyMac was also never on the list. So I spit on your list FDIC!

Fed Officials Agree Next Rate Move Will Be Increase (sometime in 2012)

From Bloomberg:
Wachovia, which reported an $8.9 billion loss in the second quarter, the widest in its history, has $34.5 billion of debt maturing in 2008 and 2009. New York-based Lehman, the securities firm that had more than $8 billion in credit losses in the past 12 months, has about $30.4 billion coming due by the end of 2009.
Spokeswoman for Charlotte, North Carolina-based Wachovia Christy Phillips-Brown said the company has enough cash to meet more than three years of long-term debt maturities.

Merrill, Wachovia Hit With Record Refinancing Bill (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

Lehman Said to Weigh Forming New Company to Buy Mortgage Assets

Lehman May Form New Company to Buy Mortgage Assets (Update1) - Bloomberg.com


So this is how the banks and investment banks avoid bankruptcy.

We are all insolvent now.

So the FDIC will probably have to raise rates for insurance.

That is what I was getting at regarding the Indymac mortgage workouts. If any FDIC funds are being used to support those workouts, that would seem just cause for other banks and their customers to be upset at the prospect of higher FDIC premiums, particularly since the FDIC workouts are susceptible to abuse.

"has enough cash to meet more than three years of long-term debt maturities"

and enough to meet reserve levels?

We are offering 5.2% for 12 month CD.

"Fed Officials Agree Next Rate Move Will Be Increase (sometime in 2012)"

The only question then is will inflation be 12% or 120% at that time.

they are just trying to pile on a commodities price decrease. all we need is another whooper of a bank failure and we'll get more rate cuts, more bank failures and more inflation.

BB-

The bailout is already happening. You don't suppose that the Fed auction of Monday ($75b) worth had anything to do with the "successful" debt auction on the same day??

An official bailout will not occur as it's already being done. Gotta keep those preferred SH's whole without appearing to wipe them out. That this is being done at the end of the qtr. adds even more stink to an already smelly problem.

Ciao
MS

OT:
Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Carteret Mortgage Corp., a closely held mortgage broker that originated more than $4 billion in loans in 2006, plans to close in several weeks, said Chief Executive Officer Eric Weinstein.

We ran out of money,'' Weinstein, 49, said in an interview today.We're not technically out of business yet, but we're winding it down and trying to do the best we can for everybody.''

More than 100 lenders that have halted loans, closed or sold themselves over the past 18 months amid the worst housing market since the Great Depression. Weinstein said the Centreville, Virginia-based company has about 800 employees, including 40 at headquarters.

You should definitely seek other employment immediately,'' Weinstein said in an e-mail today to the employees.I would expect that you have about 30 days to close your loans before it starts getting bad,'' he said, signing the note ``Eric `Shut the Lights' Weinstein.''

Foreclosures are expected to hit a record 2.5 million this year and next, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, cutting demand from investors who buy mortgage-backed assets.

Weinstein founded the company in 1995 and expanded to more than 4,500 employees by 2003 when annual loan volume peaked at more than $4.7 billion. The company's business model allowed employees to work from home and earn income by recruiting and managing other workers, Weinstein said. - Bloomberg


Love that last sentence in the article, a little ponzi scheme no less!

"The only question then is will inflation be 12% or 120% at that time"

I just cant get my head around this. So much cash going to wack-a-loss causing contraction, and yet so much commodity inflation.

o/t anybody watching the huge food recall in Canada - 12 dead so far, many sick...sad

is LEH setting up an Everquest?

Everquest IPO tied to troubled Bear hedge fund
Cioffi's fund transferred risky mortgage derivatives to firm he helps run
Everquest IPO entwined with troubled Bear Stearns hedge fund - MarketWatch

how is this legal?

here is a point from the bloomberg article.

"Lehman may contribute some of the equity for the new venture so it could benefit should asset prices recover, the people familiar with the talks said."

Doesn't LEH need to raise money?

"close your loans before it starts getting bad"

so, up until now it has been a walk in the park?

all signs say we are approaching a black hole

OT:
Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Evacuations of offshore oil and gas rigs and platforms in the Gulf of Mexico will begin tomorrow in preparation for Hurricane Gustav, which may become the strongest storm to hit the region in almost three years.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc is ``making logistical arrangements to evacuate staff who are not essential to production or drilling operations,'' spokesman Destin Singleton said in an e-mailed statement today.

Shell generally leads off'' the evacuations, said Jim Shugart, executive vice president of ERA Helicopters LLC, which ferries workers to and from offshore facilities.They have by far the majority of workers out there and they figure it takes them four to four and a half days to evacuate everybody.''


Those rigs will be close a long time as this storm won't even clear Cuba until Friday or Saturday. Katrina meet Gustav, Gustav meet Katrina, I think you guys would really hit it off and have a lot in common.

OT, here come the higher interest rates. Well we have inflation (food and energy) and deflation (housing) and now we will have higher interes rates.

Fed Officials Agree Next Rate Move Will Be Increase (Update3) - Bloomberg.com

The next rate move is up.

Not next meeting perhaps... but this should signal the bottom the the rate cycle.

Fed Officials Agree Next Rate Move Will Be Increase (Update3) - Bloomberg.com

I love the last sentence on the "About the FDIC" blurb, about how no taxpayer dollars are spent bailing out the banks. It reminds me of the annual Social Security statements the government sends me which are always good for a chuckle. "You'll receive such-and-so per month" with the footnote "btw, benefits might change from projected, because we'll be totally broke by then if they don't."

Sad that the American people are so dumb that the whole "everything will be fine, rah rah" rhetoric with no substance elicits praise and not ridicule. Sign of the times, I guess.

Lenders on the FDIC's ``problem list'' had assets of $78 billion at the end of the second quarter, an increase from the $26.3 billion at the end of the first quarter, the agency said.

$78B/117 = $666M per problem bank on average.

Coincidence?

Assets of insured institutions declined. Total assets of FDIC-insured institutions declined during the quarter for the first time since 2002. The $68.6 billion (0.5 percent) decline was caused by a reduction in trading assets at a few large banks. Assets in trading accounts, which increased by $135.2 billion in the first quarter, declined by $118.9 billion (11.8 percent) in the second quarter. In addition, the industry's holdings of one- to four-family residential mortgage loans fell by $61.4 billion (2.8 percent). Real estate construction and development loans declined for the first time since 1997, falling by $5.4 billion (0.9 percent).

Nothing like Fannie and Freddie completing their swan dives.

Not gonna hold any mortgage paper either.

Anybody else wonder why treasury bond rates are still so low?

The Fed is in total panic mode.

If Gustav hits GOM oil/gas production inflation will come unglued as oil and gas soar to new records.

Now with AIG the insurance companies are starting to take the hit.

FDIC should kill off at least 20 banks in the next four months to stay on top of the problem- after all their list just grew by 27 banks- which didn't include INDYMAC.

I should go back and lower my new house sale estimates after reading this thread.

Someday this war's gonna end...

Haircut: "FDIC-insured lenders reported net income of $4.96 billion, down from $36.8 billion in the same quarter a year ago"

Does the FDIC have the auditing chops to correctly value and model modern financially engineered products?

No.

Nobody does.

Any security whose value is substantially affected by insurance or hedging is subject to counterparty risk, and with many of the couterparties likely to fail to evaluate it you need to analyze the expected values and risks of the counterparties' assets - which in turn depends on their counterparties and so on. So to value one complicated CDO you need detailed and accurate knowledge of the entire world financial system and its interconnections and correlations. Nobody can do that. That problem, IMO, is at the core of the high TED spread and some of the abrupt market collapses like auction rate securities. The financial worth and creditworthiness of almost any player in the world financial markets is currently unknowable to anyone.

It looks like LEH is trying the classic investment strategy of looking for the greater fool.

Either though a MLEC like plan to sweep the crap onto someone else's balence sheet... or find retail investors... I mean suckers... to invest.

Selling equity trances of subprime debt to retail investors... that'll help the lawyers stay in buiness.

It should be noted that that list includes failed institutions one of which is indymac with their roughly $32bn of assets.

C'mon Sheila. Show us the list. At least the top ten.

"...net income of $4.96 billion, down from $36.8 billion in the same quarter a year ago."

WOW! How much of that is due to writeoffs and how much is due to a loss of income streams?

"But after Freddie Mac completed a $2 billion debt sale on Monday, several Wall Street firms said the government-sponsored companies have an adequate capital cushion to absorb billions of dollars in losses from soured mortgages in the near term, meaning a federal bailout could be avoided."

Two questions come to mind. How much did the $2 bil cost? And don't Fannie and Freddie have about a $100 billion each in debt to roll over before September 30?

Um... never mind. The Everquest deal is old news. Plus, the reference to LEH was weak.

LEH does not appear to be offloading equity CDO trances to retail investors.

Why does it take until late August to find out what the length of the problem bank list was at the end of June? We're now closer to the end of the current quarter than the end of the last one...

BB writes:
Fed Officials Agree Next Rate Move Will Be Increase

Wow... sanity. Did the left miss a delivery to the Fed? Wink

I agree with Barly, that we are approaching a mortgage "Black hole." This freaks my wife out. I stand by my point that if we're locked out of buying for 6+ months it will do more to improve our standard of living than anything else. Smile

JP...
ROTFLMAO.
$666M average per institution... That's got to mean something! Wink Tell me when the FDIC's trust fund hits $6.66B.

Got Popcorn?
Neil

"The risk of a downward spiral of house prices is the primary danger facing the American economy. Because of the structure of securitised mortgage finance, this risk has the potential to cause a global financial crisis. Both of these problems will remain until a new policy brings stability to house prices.

The current decline of house prices is the natural result of the bubble that by 2006 had raised house prices to 60 per cent above their long-term trend. The sharp decline since then means that today's prices are about 15 per cent above the trend level. But while a further 15 per cent decline may be inevitable, there is nothing to stop prices declining even further.

I have proposed a programme of "mortgage replacement loans" that I believe would stop the downward spiral of house prices. The basic idea is to provide an incentive to stop defaults among those who now have positive equity but are vulnerable to a further price decline. The federal government would offer every homeowner with a mortgage the opportunity to replace 20 per cent of that mortgage with a low interest government loan - up to a loan limit of $80,000 (€55,000, £44,000) - that reflects the government's lower borrowing rate."

Martin Feldstein knows the financial engineered structured finance economy woun't be returning to health anytime soon. Looks like a look out below is what he is saying.

this moving of bad paper around (SPE+s) reminds me of Bush's White House Correspondent's dinner a few years ago - where Bush was looking for the WMDs under the chairs and desks. This time, it is bad mortgages and their byproducts (think Bologna) being hidden waiting to be sold to great suckers.

If the banks won't lend to each other because of unknown risk, we don't have a banking system anymore.

Those who perpetrate and allow this financial gimmickry to continue should be taken and shot on the street (and some horse's heads placed on pillows) as an example to the others who cheat and lie. It's time for an investor rebellion: cash only until they fess up.

Calculated Risk writes:
RhodesianRidgebackinAZ, they keep it private - kind of a "double secret probation".

LOL!

............

Fair Economist,

You win the biscuit. Congrats. I'm even throwing in a pony and half dozen squirrels.

Brilliant.

Lets see. Wamu's CAMEL rating.

Capital - still adequately capitalized, but unable to raise new capital in the market to meet expected losses. Stock price $3.60.
Assets - 60 B Home Equity Loans and 55 B Option ARM loans most in California and Florida.
Managment - What management?
Earnings - Multibillion losses as far as the eye can see.
Liquidity - Paying 5% on 1 yr CDs, can't issue commercial paper or other debt instruments.

Hmm, what CAMEL rating would you give them?

Be interesting to see who the FDIC lets gobble up these small banks. I saw SunTrust got the remains of one Florida bank which could be seen as a vote of confidence in SunTrust by the FDIC...OR...maybe not as acquiring the branches and deposit base of a small bank shores up the bigger bank doesn't it?

Would the FDIC let WAMU takeover a small busted bank?

smart people video, stiglitz, scholes,et al may have been posted before, off Jesse's cafe americain

Jesse's Café Américain 

Eurovision3

Unfortunately, I am not going to be able to help Paulson with his bad Bair day. The world can see he has none.

I am a stylist, not an economist.

[non-facetious] Give Secretary Bair credit for making a frank scary statement just before the Repub. Convention.

If this is not a global financial mess...I don't know what one would look like. Ask Great Britian, Ireland, Germany or any others in the Eurozone.... how their real estate market or banking sectors are doing? Pass the popcorn this wreck will be better than pouring hot grease out at Talledega in 95+ degree heat with all the drivers rounding turn 3 on bald tires!

Even if you take the $32B from IndyMac off of the $78B, it's still a +77% increase over Q1.

But Sheila cares about us.
How to "Get a Good Night's Sleep" with FDIC Insurance: Answers to Common Questions
FDIC: Press Releases - PR-68-2008 8/21/2008 

Profits down 86% for Banks, time to start floating DEPRESSION ODDS the "R" word is now redundant....

Up at my local WAMU earlier in the day and the posters are up for the CDs. The really weird thing was the level of customer service. Everyone had big smiles on their faces, chit chat with the customers and there were vases with fresh flowers on the counter and on all the desks. I've been going to this same branch for 15+ years and it's never been decked out like that.
If they put up a floral easel spray or wreath I'm making out a really big withdrawal slip.

$78B/117 = $666M per problem bank on average.

The actual quote was...
Total assets of problem institutions increased from $26 billion to $78 billion, with $32 billion coming from IndyMac Bank, F.S.B., Pasadena, CA, which failed in July.

I take that mean that the $78 billion includes IndyMac. Subtracting out IndyMac gives a slightly different picture...
$46B/116 = $396 million per bank (on average). Seems there are quite a few Podunk National's with problem loans.

Anonymous | 08.26.08 - 6:47 pm | #

was me. thanks HaloForgetfulScan !

5% on a CD - sounds great, but it also sounds desperate. No thank you.

dude, we can guess...

C'mon Sheila. Show us the list. At least the top ten.
awgee | 08.26.08 - 5:05 pm | #

""You'll receive such-and-so per month" with the footnote "btw, benefits might change from projected, because we'll be totally broke by then if they don't.""

That message is brought to you by folks who want you to trust your future to Wall Street, the same folks who brought us the current mess. They've been saying SS is 30 years from bankruptcy for a couple of decades now.

Slightly more on topic, so the other day when Ms. Bair said that 99% of the banks were perfectly sound, she really mean 98.5%. Until, presumably, the next time they have to make a count.

Mr. Beach,
FDIC has this capability but it is limited. If they need assistance they will probably not hesitate to hire experts to assist. Some times so called experts turn out to be duds and the FDIC must start the process over. RTC was notorious for doing this. The FDIC budget is huge and growing. I'm sure it's going to be tapped extensively during this crisis. Right now I would guess they are playing catch up in a big way.

Fannie, Freddie Mortgage Profit Rises With Debt Costs (Update2) - Bloomberg.com

Washington-based Fannie said last month net interest income rose to $2.1 billion in the second quarter, from $1.7 billion in the first quarter. The company's profit on its investments expanded to 100 basis points from 82 basis points, according to Credit Suisse.

Freddie's net interest income jumped 92 percent to $1.5 billion. The annualized profit per dollar of investments rose to 80 basis points from 48 basis points.

They, at the increment, are very, very profitable,'' said Dan Fuss, vice chairman of Loomis Sayles & Co. in Boston and co- manager of the $17 billion Loomis Sayles Bond Fund.If they can continue to do anything close to business as usual, they are immensely profitable.'

Fannie plans on Oct. 1 it will double to 50 basis points an upfront ``adverse market delivery charge,'' introduced this year for every mortgage the company buys or guarantees.

You can't do the organ transplant until the donee is declared dead.

Builders need to stand together and "push back" on the banks.

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