I like your picks tanta. I am going to say 500 for 2008 and 475 for 2009. This looks like 1981, 1982 and we have a lot larger overhang and no babyboom generation.
I would like to point out thatImplode-o-Meter has posted that Woodside Homes, a Top 25 builder, has filed Chapter 11 to avoid foreclosure by five major life insurance companies. The article did not say what debt these five companies hold.
However, I believe it is asset-based financing of Woodside's own mortgage company, Hillsborough, which was used to make mortgage loans. The insurance companies may be doing their own version of securitization by advancing Hillsborough funds secured by mortgages and receivables. The financing also could be related to transactions made by Woodside in acquiring several smaller regional builders in recent years, perhaps secured by undeveloped land.
I've been saying all along...life insurance is one of the next shoes to drop. They have HUGE exposure to all types of real estate, direct ownership and securities. They became real estate junkies over the past decade.
Woodside isn't kaput. But without access to financing, they can't build many new homes. My pick is low because I think there will be many more builders sidelined by financing shortages.
Insured Bank and Thrift Earnings Fell to $5.0 Billion in the Second Quarter
FDIC Board to Consider Restoration Plan to Bolster the Deposit Insurance Fund
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
August 26, 2008 \t
Media Contact:
Andrew Gray (202) 898-7192 angray@fdic.gov
Commercial banks and savings institutions insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) reported net income of $5.0 billion in the second quarter of 2008, a decline of $31.8 billion (86.5 percent) from the $36.8 billion that the industry earned in the second quarter of 2007. With the exception of the fourth quarter of last year, the latest earnings were the lowest for the industry since the fourth quarter of 1991.
"By any yardstick, it was another rough quarter for bank earnings, but the results were not unexpected as the industry coped with financial market disruptions, the housing slump, worsening economic conditions and the overall downturn in the credit cycle," said FDIC Chairman Sheila C. Bair.
The FDIC's "problem list" grew to 117 institutions from 90 at the end of the first quarter. That is largest number on the list since the middle of 2003. Total assets of problem institutions increased from $26 billion to $78 billion, with $32 billion coming from IndyMac Bank, F.S.B., Pasadena, CA, which failed in July. "More banks will come on the list as credit problems worsen," Chairman Bair added. "Assets of problem institutions also will continue to rise."
OT - FWIW - this is a direct quote from an old chum now working inside CFC. Got it in an email today.
"Angelo is a well-intentioned (mostly) guy whose breathtaking arrogance left him totally unable to cope effectively with the growth of his company, and thus left him totally unprepared for the inevitable contraction. Dave Sambol is a soulless monster, and I say that with all respect and as much charitability as I can muster. Bank of America is a major upgrade."
So far it is about 2(27) to 1(14) that new home sales will go down next year. Three pick equal sales. Interesting results most likely biased by the depressing nature of the contest particiapnts.
NAR predicts existing-home sales for 2007 will likely total 5.66 million, the fifth-highest on record; then it expects sales to edge up to 5.7 million in 2008 and 5.91 million in 2009, compared with 6.48 million in 2006. Existing-home prices for 2007 are likely to be down 1.9 percent to a median of $217,600, then hold even in 2008 before rising 3.1 percent in 2009 to $224,400, according to NAR.
NAR has projected new-home sales at 773,000 for 2007 and a decline to 669,000 in 2008 before rising to 730,000 in 2009, but well below the 1.05 million posted in 2006.
Single-family new home sales in April (526,000 SAAR) dropped 43.4%. Year to date new home sales fell 36.3% as compared to a year ago. Existing home sales declined 15.7% in April (4.89 million SAAR). Existing home sales for the first four months of 2008 are 20% lower than in 2007. Pending (existing) home sales were surprisingly robust in April, up 6.3% vs. March, although off 13.1% on a year-over-year basis.
The new houses for sale statistic reached in excess of 500,000 during each of the 25 months ending November 2007, a level that has often presaged major industry downturns. And, of course, a downturn clearly has been under way. Since the peak in inventory (570,000 in August 2007), monthly statistics have worked down to 454,000 (456,000 SAAR) in April. The month's supply at the current sales rate was 10.6 months (SAAR) and 9.6 months (unadjusted). The existing homes inventory was 4.522 million which represents 11.2 months' supply.
My 420 number for 2008 borders on ludicrous since we are already at 328K after July.
But July was 35% down relative to 07 and that should have been peak season. For the rest of the year I would think possible that the following intensify: credit squeeze, and buyers take a step back as prices drop accelerates, the economy slows more clearly, oil stays at resilient levels over 110 and even retests higher levels, the financial markets retests the lows and show no actual sign of bottoming, volatility inspire no confidence. All of these may intimidate speculators and home buyers alike. This convergence of negatives reinforcing themselves would have to be a stronger negative than in July.
But mostly, bets are fun only if they are extremes. (I am not a betting kind, I am a trader and I have never set foot in a casino, or bought a lottery ticket).
I agree with CR that the new homes inventory has peaked. But I don't believe there will be pick up in sales. It will be very difficult to compete with the existing homes inventory. Moreover, falling prices with still quite expensive materials may create a situation in some places where prices fall lower than the replacement cost that the builders would not be able to even cash flow.
How many builders have large parcels of buildable land that isn't out in the boonies? The public HBs will be BK or in hibernation; the small ones will be all spec & refurb. The only reason we'll even see 350 is because of existing inventory.
Datahead, ahhh ... NAR's forecasts have been worthless and they hope New Home sales keep falling so that people buy existing homes. But it is weird to be more bullish than NAR on something - that hasn't happened for a few years.
In it, he argues again for modifying loans to create positive equity. If I am reading this properly, the borrowers status (current or in default) does not matter.
The goal is to keep people in their homes and put a floor on price declines. Will it work? I don't know. Will some undeserving speculators catch a break? Of course. This seems to be a deal breaker for everyone so I guess we'll all go down together.
.. And I think I'm high for 2009.. I just don't see how, with the Option ARM explosion ahead of us, and so many Black Swans lurking, how we get above 450k for 2009.
Always amusing that people need to voice that kind of "feeling". Especially at a site called "calculated risk". Notion of risk management = job#1 of traders familiar to you?
Facts: about 95% of people fail at it (ie do not make a consistent living). But just let your account tell you whether that works for you or not, say over 10 years or so. No emotion comes into play there either.
The home price contest is only fun to win if you are far from the "herd cloud" though
SAN FRANCISCO (Thomson Financial) - J. Crew Group Inc. late Tuesday reported second-quarter net earnings of $18.1 million, or 28 cents a share, down from $20.6 million, or 32 cents a share, in the year-ago period.
The company's shares closed at $26.64 and fell more than 13% in after-hours trade.
Clyde's new home sales picks:
2008: 485k
2009: 430k
I saw the CNBC real estate reporter talking to Yun yesterday (sound off of course). So does one increase their credibility talking to that guy? I think not. So it is a ratings play, subjecting their own viewership to untethered(non-reality based) opinion, sort of like devouring your young. Good grief.
Hint: Housing markets remain weak. Some 4.67 million houses and condos were on sale in July, according to the National Association of Realtors. The 11.2 months supply, measured by the current sales pace, matches a prior record.
Today's release also showed that Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser opposed creating a new program offering investment banks options on borrowing Treasuries from the central bank.
Actually, it is always nice to go back to Yun:
December 09, 2007
New-home sales are forecast at 788,000 this year and 693,000 in 2008,
8/26/2008:
New-home sales rose 2.4% in July from June's 17-year low to an annual rate of 515,000 homes, the Commerce Department said.
The number of unsold new homes on the market fell 5.2%, the biggest drop since November 1963, to 416,000. The time it would take to clear out the existing supply at the current sales rate fell to a still-high 10.1 months.
Through July this year, there have been 327K New Homes sold (subject to revision). For the last 45 years, the median number of new homes sold through July is 61%, so 2008 is currently on pace for 534K homes sold.
My opinion, is that what ever is in the works, will run its course, hence CR is only 5% off, thus my guess is:
But 2009 will depend on how much money the NAHB donates to the DNC. If the NAHB plays its cards right, there could be some sort of major tax credit for the purchase of a new home.
When will DAPs with FHA no longer be available. The bill passed - when is it effective? According to one article "the refinance law goes into effect on Oct. 1"
Builders will soon run out of cash for providing customer financing, such as "$500 move you in" programs.
I'm not sure of the absolute numbers, but I'm 90% positive that sales will be down in 2009. A 15% decline is my guess.
One major problem with this data is the way Census handles sales that fall through -- a sales is only counted once, so that if a sale falls through there is no adjustment to the data, but if the house is sold again the second sale doesn't show up as another sale. Census says that this averages out over the course of the business cycle, but at this stage of the cycle I believe it would understate sales.
Going on gut. It served me well in fifth grade, when I guessed how many books were in the library and I won a really cool Star Wars pop- up book. It's probably worth more than a house in Detroit right now.
Wow, I've never been considered terribly bullish but people here are really expecting the bottom to continue to fall out.... not sure I agree.
I'm thinking we are near bottom in NEW home sales volume (but still a little further to go in new home prices). Obviously, existing homes have a lot further to go (both declining sales volume and prices).
CR, I agree the NAR forecasts have been worthless for a couple of years now. You got to wonder where they come up with their numbers. Let's hope the bottom doesn't continue to fall out like many forecasts posted here have suggested.
Dee's picks. Main reason I feel 2009 will be worse is bank failures and tighter lending adding an avalanche of option arm recasts dragging down the market.
2008, 2nd half, builders (who want to stay in business) capitulate while mortgage rates are still low, mortgage programs striving for success; signs of inflation (delayed reaction to 1st half commodity bubble) spurs worries of higher mortgage rates to come and with firesale, more buying in second half than customary (see 1980 e.g.)
2009, new wave of foreclosures on market (including bankrupt builders stock), mortgage rates up 1-2%, failure of mortgage programs locks move-ups, no NEW homes built in 2008 leads to all stock in desirable locations sold down; lowest new home sales in 35 years!
2008: 499k
2009: 475k
jg's picks
2008: 450K
2009: 300K
I'm not sure what normal ratio of July to Annual Sales means (but it sounds deceptive):
2008: 516k
2009: 445k
If the prize is a free, self-funded trip to Cleveland, I don't want it.
2008 - 510
2009 - 490
Worsening credit conditions, food inflation, declining wages, higher unemployment. (Demand Destruction)
Do weez get a Star if we win?
FT's picks:
2008: 517K
2009: 330K
CR - Can I revise these once we know the final number?
I get the ratio thing now. Sorry read too fast the first time.
2008: 514K
2009: 500K
DEC:
2008: 501k
2009: 510k
CR, i agree with you.
My picks are
2008 515K
2009 540K
I like your picks tanta. I am going to say 500 for 2008 and 475 for 2009. This looks like 1981, 1982 and we have a lot larger overhang and no babyboom generation.
Max's Picks:
2008: 490K
2009: 490K
rk,
Great independent thinking. At least you could have said 2009 540,001.
O/T Quite the FAA problem, no?
08-499
09-465**
***revision + or - 11%
Red Plaid's picks:
2008: 495K
2009: 480K
rich's picks:
2008: 495K
2009: 435K
I would like to point out thatImplode-o-Meter has posted that Woodside Homes, a Top 25 builder, has filed Chapter 11 to avoid foreclosure by five major life insurance companies. The article did not say what debt these five companies hold.
However, I believe it is asset-based financing of Woodside's own mortgage company, Hillsborough, which was used to make mortgage loans. The insurance companies may be doing their own version of securitization by advancing Hillsborough funds secured by mortgages and receivables. The financing also could be related to transactions made by Woodside in acquiring several smaller regional builders in recent years, perhaps secured by undeveloped land.
I've been saying all along...life insurance is one of the next shoes to drop. They have HUGE exposure to all types of real estate, direct ownership and securities. They became real estate junkies over the past decade.
Woodside isn't kaput. But without access to financing, they can't build many new homes. My pick is low because I think there will be many more builders sidelined by financing shortages.
08: 502
09: 580
OT-dow green at end of day, bottom is in..
even with this just popping up in the news..
Russia threatens military response to US missiles
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
their president repeats military leader response
interesting times
t.o.l. picks:
2008: 510K
2009: 480K
Why these? I dunno. When reports surface of new houses actually tipping over due to shoddy workmanship, no one will want a new house. Yeah, that's it.
"My pick is low because I think there will be many more builders sidelined by financing shortages"
Bingo!
CR's picks:
2008: 525K
2009: 525K
And if those number have hat hair, it's with good reason.
Tim T's picks:
2008: 499
2009: 440
"My pick is low because I think there will be many more builders sidelined by financing shortages" rich
My sentiments exactly.
530
550
I am willing to put some money toward a prize. I could chip in $100. Anybody else?
I could also make the prize a house in Detroit. Might be able to get several for $100.
some investor guy,
Then that would be gambling. Gambling is amoral. Also, I think CR would get in trouble.
Do FEMA trailers count as 'new homes'? If so we should ask Gustav what he thinks the numbers will be.
Anyways...
dryfly's picks:
2008: 509K
2009: 569K
Tim R's picks:
2008: 490K
2009: 460K
490 / 350
FDIC PR out:
Insured Bank and Thrift Earnings Fell to $5.0 Billion in the Second Quarter
FDIC Board to Consider Restoration Plan to Bolster the Deposit Insurance Fund
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
August 26, 2008 \t
Media Contact:
Andrew Gray (202) 898-7192
angray@fdic.gov
Commercial banks and savings institutions insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) reported net income of $5.0 billion in the second quarter of 2008, a decline of $31.8 billion (86.5 percent) from the $36.8 billion that the industry earned in the second quarter of 2007. With the exception of the fourth quarter of last year, the latest earnings were the lowest for the industry since the fourth quarter of 1991.
"By any yardstick, it was another rough quarter for bank earnings, but the results were not unexpected as the industry coped with financial market disruptions, the housing slump, worsening economic conditions and the overall downturn in the credit cycle," said FDIC Chairman Sheila C. Bair.
The FDIC's "problem list" grew to 117 institutions from 90 at the end of the first quarter. That is largest number on the list since the middle of 2003. Total assets of problem institutions increased from $26 billion to $78 billion, with $32 billion coming from IndyMac Bank, F.S.B., Pasadena, CA, which failed in July. "More banks will come on the list as credit problems worsen," Chairman Bair added. "Assets of problem institutions also will continue to rise."
I think 350k is more of a possibility for 2010, but I like the thinking tj & the bear.
tj & the bear writes:
490 / 350
woa!
Yeah, too many factors weighing on 2009 to be as "good" as this year.
ipodius' (or should that be ipodii?) picks:
2008: 521K
2009: 549K
2008: 425k
2009: 375k
How can this even be quantified correctly?? With the games being played it's impossible to have an accurate number.
It will be well below even the most pessimistic #'s but I'll guess at 275k to put a # on it.
Means absolutely nothing....
Ciao
MS
2008 = 490k
2009 = 535k
I also predict Jas will declare himself the winner for both years and call us all dopes.
that's 275K for '09 since this year is too easy to extrapolate (and easily manipulated too)
Ciao
MS
2008: 529K
2009: 551K
Greg's picks:
2008: 465K
2009: 435K
Mitch's picks:
2008: 497k
2009: 510k
(Standing behind garish rectangular price-is-right podium)
Bob, I'd like to bid $1, please.
This is a first. CR is now more bullish than the National Association of Realtors. Here is their most recent forecast, which includes new home sales. Theirs is 509 for 2008 and 464 for 2009.
http://www.realtor.org/wps/wcm/connect/756f41004abe5d878e578ec3e1508f4c/August+2008+Outlook.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=756f41004abe5d878e578ec3e1508f4c&CACHEID=685c4e804abe290d918cdf0517252576&CACHEID=685c4e804abe290d918cdf0517252576
2008: 420K
2009: 390K
RE's picks
2008 490K
2009 450K
CR's picks:
2008: 520K
2009: 530K
Yal's picks:
2008: 485K
2009: 435K
Lurking Larry's picks:
2008: 502k
2009: 525k
Datahead's picks:
2008: 467k
2009: 475k
2008 474k
2009 362k
The really ridiculous part is they are sitting on 400k in inventory already.
Why are they still building?
Someday this war's gonna end...
2008: 497,671
2009: 2,124,887 (Obama gives everyone who is behind on their subprime loan a brand new house with a unicorn out in yard.)
470
445
OT - FWIW - this is a direct quote from an old chum now working inside CFC. Got it in an email today.
"Angelo is a well-intentioned (mostly) guy whose breathtaking arrogance left him totally unable to cope effectively with the growth of his company, and thus left him totally unprepared for the inevitable contraction. Dave Sambol is a soulless monster, and I say that with all respect and as much charitability as I can muster. Bank of America is a major upgrade."
480
380
2008: 520K
2009: 490K
2008: 505 K
2009: 505 K
2008: 477 K
2009: 422 K
2008: 510K
2009: 500K
Anonymous Bosch's Picks:
2008: 488K
2009: 421K
2008: High selling season is winding down.
2009: Credit is going to get tighter still.
2008 - 480k
2009 - 410k
2008- 475k
2009- 315k
Jerry's picks:
2008: 511K
2009: 496K
So far it is about 2(27) to 1(14) that new home sales will go down next year. Three pick equal sales. Interesting results most likely biased by the depressing nature of the contest particiapnts.
Great long term buying opportunity!
2008 - 525
2009 - 572
stevo's picks:
2008: 484
2009: 401
2008: 538k
2009: 570k
Sales will increase next year as prices collapse and lenders rush to unload inventory before the option-arm and alt-A inventory starts coming in.
I'm Not POTUS picks:
2008: 590K
2009: 220K
I also habitually double down on 10 in Vegas.
hopeinsd:
2008: 505k
2009: 460k
They can't sell what they don't build!
sportsfan's picks:
2008: 502k
2009: 468k
CR's picks:
2008: 515K
2009: 540K
opppsss! ! ! ! (Thats four Tanta
nades' picks:
2008: 501k
2009: 486k
(hope no one above picked those)
.................
fatbear picks:
2008: 517K
2009: 560K
Barley writes:
CR - Can I revise these once we know the final number?
Not unless you work for the NAR....
........
Well, of the 52 guesses (so far) we have the following:
2008 2009
Mean\t499\t464
Median\t500\t475
Mode\t490\t475
Only 16 believe in increased sales in 2009.
2008: 483K
2009: 433K
@008: 480
2009: 435
rew,
Only 16 believe in increased sales in 2009.
I noticed that trend too... I'm a believer in it too....
I hope we dont turn in to japan...
.........
2008: 480K
2009: 450K
As background:
NAR predicts existing-home sales for 2007 will likely total 5.66 million, the fifth-highest on record; then it expects sales to edge up to 5.7 million in 2008 and 5.91 million in 2009, compared with 6.48 million in 2006. Existing-home prices for 2007 are likely to be down 1.9 percent to a median of $217,600, then hold even in 2008 before rising 3.1 percent in 2009 to $224,400, according to NAR.
NAR has projected new-home sales at 773,000 for 2007 and a decline to 669,000 in 2008 before rising to 730,000 in 2009, but well below the 1.05 million posted in 2006.
Single-family new home sales in April (526,000 SAAR) dropped 43.4%. Year to date new home sales fell 36.3% as compared to a year ago. Existing home sales declined 15.7% in April (4.89 million SAAR). Existing home sales for the first four months of 2008 are 20% lower than in 2007. Pending (existing) home sales were surprisingly robust in April, up 6.3% vs. March, although off 13.1% on a year-over-year basis.
The new houses for sale statistic reached in excess of 500,000 during each of the 25 months ending November 2007, a level that has often presaged major industry downturns. And, of course, a downturn clearly has been under way. Since the peak in inventory (570,000 in August 2007), monthly statistics have worked down to 454,000 (456,000 SAAR) in April. The month's supply at the current sales rate was 10.6 months (SAAR) and 9.6 months (unadjusted). The existing homes inventory was 4.522 million which represents 11.2 months' supply.
2008: 482,300
2009: 450,000
My 420 number for 2008 borders on ludicrous since we are already at 328K after July.
But July was 35% down relative to 07 and that should have been peak season. For the rest of the year I would think possible that the following intensify: credit squeeze, and buyers take a step back as prices drop accelerates, the economy slows more clearly, oil stays at resilient levels over 110 and even retests higher levels, the financial markets retests the lows and show no actual sign of bottoming, volatility inspire no confidence. All of these may intimidate speculators and home buyers alike. This convergence of negatives reinforcing themselves would have to be a stronger negative than in July.
But mostly, bets are fun only if they are extremes. (I am not a betting kind, I am a trader and I have never set foot in a casino, or bought a lottery ticket).
2008 483k*
2009 425k*
No NAR data was used in this wild ass guess.
Curlydan's picks:
2008: 512K
2009: 444K
tyaresun picks:
2008: 510K
2009: 460K
How long is the contest open, CR?
I could be that anonymous guy from last night and vote (at least) a couple more times.
SRQ's picks:
2008: 500K
2009: 440K
2008: 519K
2009: 443K
I agree with CR that the new homes inventory has peaked. But I don't believe there will be pick up in sales. It will be very difficult to compete with the existing homes inventory. Moreover, falling prices with still quite expensive materials may create a situation in some places where prices fall lower than the replacement cost that the builders would not be able to even cash flow.
poszi,
Agreed.
How many builders have large parcels of buildable land that isn't out in the boonies? The public HBs will be BK or in hibernation; the small ones will be all spec & refurb. The only reason we'll even see 350 is because of existing inventory.
Totally wild guess, based on what I see in my region (Seattle area) which is supposed to be one of the least affected areas of the country.
2008: 526K
2009: 456K
This is a great idea, CR. I've been lurking for a year, but this brought me out;). Who can resist a contest?
"but this brought me out;)."
Strange reason to come out of the closet, but I bet the relief is huge.
CR's Picks by an Appraiser
2008 475K
Check That
CR's Picks by an Appraiser
2008 450K
2009 400K
Datahead, ahhh ... NAR's forecasts have been worthless and they hope New Home sales keep falling so that people buy existing homes. But it is weird to be more bullish than NAR on something - that hasn't happened for a few years.
Best Wishes.
Anonymouse picks:
2008 490,452
2009 000,002 (Sebastian & O-Joe picking bottom)
2008: 495K
2009: 450K
LAS picks:
2008: 502K
2009: 510K
Did any of the top 3 of the last contest get offered jobs at NAR since they are much better than their tools at predicting the future?
anyone?
Bueller??
OT - Tanta's earlier post on hardship letters:
Once again, I submit that Tanta misses the point of loan mods. See Martin Feldstein in the FT.
FT.com / Registration / Sign-up
29e69e...00779fd18c.html
In it, he argues again for modifying loans to create positive equity. If I am reading this properly, the borrowers status (current or in default) does not matter.
The goal is to keep people in their homes and put a floor on price declines. Will it work? I don't know. Will some undeserving speculators catch a break? Of course. This seems to be a deal breaker for everyone so I guess we'll all go down together.
I say it is worth trying.
Goose's Picks
2008: 504K
2009: 495K
"I am a trader" = Gambler
"winners each year will be announced in February"
CR turns optimistic and beleives we will all still be around on Feb.
YEA!
MattJ picks:
520K
510K
cdresearch picks:
2008: 502K
2009: 495K
2008: 498,498
2009: 498,498
History always repeats itself.
2008 650
2009 730
2008: 505K
2009: 355K
2008 510
2009 550
2008: 480K
2009: 420K
TOMS
2008 650
2009 730
Now that's low, although current figures could have been fudged.
Brian Picks
2008 510k
2009 472k
2008: 525
2009: 550
Nemo's picks:
2008: 530K
2009: 530K
Gomer,
No, but the budget guy who also reads CR joked I was famous.
Peer recognition is priceless!
Someday this war's gonna end...
2008: 500k
2009: 150k
2008: 485k
2009: 505k
2008: 510K
2009: 660K
2008: 505K
2009: 450K
.. And I think I'm high for 2009.. I just don't see how, with the Option ARM explosion ahead of us, and so many Black Swans lurking, how we get above 450k for 2009.
YLSP's picks:
2008: 450k
2009: 390k
2008: 491
2009: 337
remember, nobody 'qualifies' anymore.....
2008: 477k
2009: 417k
2008: 517K
2009: 652K
450k for 2008.
375k for 2009.
jm's picks:
2008: 475K
2009: 340K
2008: 509K
2009: 498K
CR, can we have a chart that goes back to 1950 please, since the ten year Treasury yield is going back to that era? Please?? Please??
DSNs picks:
2008: 538K
2009: 497K
Anonymous writes:
"I am a trader" = Gambler
Always amusing that people need to voice that kind of "feeling". Especially at a site called "calculated risk". Notion of risk management = job#1 of traders familiar to you?
Facts: about 95% of people fail at it (ie do not make a consistent living). But just let your account tell you whether that works for you or not, say over 10 years or so. No emotion comes into play there either.
The home price contest is only fun to win if you are far from the "herd cloud" though
O/T
SAN FRANCISCO (Thomson Financial) - J. Crew Group Inc. late Tuesday reported second-quarter net earnings of $18.1 million, or 28 cents a share, down from $20.6 million, or 32 cents a share, in the year-ago period.
The company's shares closed at $26.64 and fell more than 13% in after-hours trade.
Clyde's new home sales picks:
2008: 485k
2009: 430k
I saw the CNBC real estate reporter talking to Yun yesterday (sound off of course). So does one increase their credibility talking to that guy? I think not. So it is a ratings play, subjecting their own viewership to untethered(non-reality based) opinion, sort of like devouring your young. Good grief.
2008: 503,000
2009: 468,000
Hint: Housing markets remain weak. Some 4.67 million houses and condos were on sale in July, according to the National Association of Realtors. The 11.2 months supply, measured by the current sales pace, matches a prior record.
Today's release also showed that Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser opposed creating a new program offering investment banks options on borrowing Treasuries from the central bank.
2008: 496K
2009: 284K
lots of good numbers.
mostly out of nowhere:
480K
440K
If we get to 350K, it may as well be 250K, because if we get to that number I'm not sure there's much incentive to build.
R. Timm's Picks:
2008: 528k
2009: 569k
The more I look At CRs chart the more i think Fibonacci numbers or sequence, with the next leg down headed to the 377 range!
Fibonacci number - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
2008: 505K
2009: 511k
Opps, I meant 233 range, since we have already sailed past 377....
485/425. [and lucky if we hit either]
Actually, it is always nice to go back to Yun:
December 09, 2007
New-home sales are forecast at 788,000 this year and 693,000 in 2008,
8/26/2008:
New-home sales rose 2.4% in July from June's 17-year low to an annual rate of 515,000 homes, the Commerce Department said.
The number of unsold new homes on the market fell 5.2%, the biggest drop since November 1963, to 416,000. The time it would take to clear out the existing supply at the current sales rate fell to a still-high 10.1 months.
Through July this year, there have been 327K New Homes sold (subject to revision). For the last 45 years, the median number of new homes sold through July is 61%, so 2008 is currently on pace for 534K homes sold.
My opinion, is that what ever is in the works, will run its course, hence CR is only 5% off, thus my guess is:
Ravi's picks:
2008: 490K
2009: 340K
CR,
Mike in Long Island Picks:
2008: 489k
2009: 435k
Neil's picks
2008: 465K
2009: 385K
I believe a mortgage market shutdown is neigh.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Ok, I've had time to think about it.
I agree about the possibilities for a Fibonacci bounce at 377.
2008: 500k
2009: 380k
But no way 2009 is higher than 2008.
2008 2935
2009 3323
Pls forward the check.
Journeyman's picks:
2008: 500K
2009: 510K
DOGGY DOG WORLD's picks:
2008: 550k
2009: 410k
2008: 490
2009: 280
Also, my picks are Yun free.
2008: 500K
2009: 525K
Going with slightly unround numbers so my guess isn't a duplicate :
2008 - 479K
2009 - 424K
Why buy new houses from a builder when you can get them from the bank for half price?
2008: 524K
2009: 387K
Call it a dead cat bounce.
497K 2008
512K 2009
I asked my 8 ball:
2008: 490K
2009: 516K
i feel confident with my bachelor of fine arts degree:
2008: 505K
2009: 472K
2008: 504K
2009: 464K
But 2009 will depend on how much money the NAHB donates to the DNC. If the NAHB plays its cards right, there could be some sort of major tax credit for the purchase of a new home.
2008: 527
2009: 480
When will DAPs with FHA no longer be available. The bill passed - when is it effective? According to one article "the refinance law goes into effect on Oct. 1"
Builders will soon run out of cash for providing customer financing, such as "$500 move you in" programs.
2008: 521K
2009: 482K
2008: 514
2009: 450
2008: 504
2009: 428
I'm not sure of the absolute numbers, but I'm 90% positive that sales will be down in 2009. A 15% decline is my guess.
One major problem with this data is the way Census handles sales that fall through -- a sales is only counted once, so that if a sale falls through there is no adjustment to the data, but if the house is sold again the second sale doesn't show up as another sale. Census says that this averages out over the course of the business cycle, but at this stage of the cycle I believe it would understate sales.
Long time lurker (and admittedly poor typist)
08: 501.5K
09: 446K
08 430k
09 520k
2008: 492
2009: 357
Going on gut. It served me well in fifth grade, when I guessed how many books were in the library and I won a really cool Star Wars pop- up book. It's probably worth more than a house in Detroit right now.
Wow, I've never been considered terribly bullish but people here are really expecting the bottom to continue to fall out.... not sure I agree.
I'm thinking we are near bottom in NEW home sales volume (but still a little further to go in new home prices). Obviously, existing homes have a lot further to go (both declining sales volume and prices).
FWIW -
2008: 543
2009: 572
Dawg's picks:
2008: 496K
2009: 492K
We won't know until rev. 3 Apr '09.
2008: 510k
2009: 500k
easy$ picks:
2008: 495k
2009: 625k
I chose say sales during 91 (previous slowdown) adjusted for population size.
~300K *1.3 (population growth) = 390 +/- 5% my prediction.
2008: 450 +/- 5%
2009: 390 +/- 5%
Requiem's picks:
2008: 465
2009: 380
Figured I'd aim at a spot a little below '82, but if it's a Fib too, so much the better.
tranche water's picks:
2008: 497
2009: 295
BJP's picks:
2008: 505k
2009: 481k
REwatcher's picks:
2008: 455K
2009: 290K
Bellinghamster's picks:
2008: 540k
2009: 440k
a little DAP won't do ya.
John East's pick:
2008: 485k
2009: 295k
CR, I agree the NAR forecasts have been worthless for a couple of years now. You got to wonder where they come up with their numbers. Let's hope the bottom doesn't continue to fall out like many forecasts posted here have suggested.
Carrie's picks:
2008: 482K
2009: 501K
2008: 425K
2009: 350K
Why buy a new house when you can pick an old one up at an auction for $1,000?
NAVSPECWARCOM's Pick:
2008: 505k
2009: 485k
I trust CR for the 2008 figure, but I'm more bearish on the recovery of banks, and hence, on 2009 sales:
2008: 514K
2009: 510K
Dee's picks. Main reason I feel 2009 will be worse is bank failures and tighter lending adding an avalanche of option arm recasts dragging down the market.
2008: 505K
2009: 494K
Dave's Picks:
2008: 545K
2009: 385K
2008, 2nd half, builders (who want to stay in business) capitulate while mortgage rates are still low, mortgage programs striving for success; signs of inflation (delayed reaction to 1st half commodity bubble) spurs worries of higher mortgage rates to come and with firesale, more buying in second half than customary (see 1980 e.g.)
2009, new wave of foreclosures on market (including bankrupt builders stock), mortgage rates up 1-2%, failure of mortgage programs locks move-ups, no NEW homes built in 2008 leads to all stock in desirable locations sold down; lowest new home sales in 35 years!
2008 420k
2009 460k
sm's pick's
2008 498
2009 456
WaitingInOC's picks:
2008: 503,500
2009: 487,800
Prime_Is_Contained's picks:
CR's picks:
2008: 500K
2009: 325K
2008: 490K
2009: 550K
2008: 510K
2009: 500K