Anything about delisting them if volume falls below some minimums? Maybe companies will start doing reverse splits (which the market won't reward with a price increase) just to get trading volume?
Isn't this true of all markets? When they go berserk on the way up that's OK. Major drop and trading halts. That in itself is cause for bubbles because it limits the downside if one is playing with just the index.
The absurdity of this really illustrates what's going on across the global economy.
What does a market tell you about the value of a stock when a price floor has to be implemented to stop values from falling to far?
Basically it tells you that the market has nothing to do with reality.
Yet modern economies depend on markets that accurately value assets.
But now we see this disconnect around the world -- markets no longer have any relationship to the value of real world assets.
These financial organs vital to 1st world economies no longer function.
And all the solutions to these problems involve perpetuating the disconnect between markets and reality by altering rules, asset values, measurements, and access in such a way that real values can't be effectively determined -- apparently motivated by fears of panics and popular backlash if the truth is uncovered.
That path leads to doom as the financial system totally decouples from the real economy and becomes useless. The system disintegrates.
There's only one way to bring the system back to reality and maintain a 1st world economy:
Liquidate mortgages, liquidate stocks, liquidate commodities, liquidate real estate.
Find out what stuff is worth.
That's the only way markets can work.
In the glorious words of the great and wise Andrew W. Mellon:
"It will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up from less competent people.
Which, of course, is precisely what happened.
The US went on to experience decades of prosperity unprecedented in the history of the world.
This is off topic, but sometimes, I wonder if certain posters and I are living on the planet -
'New satellite measurements show that crucial sea ice in the Arctic Ocean has plummeted to its second lowest level on record.
The National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo., announced Wednesday that the extent of sea ice in the Arctic is down to 2.03 million square miles. The lowest point on record is 1.65 million square miles set last September. With about three weeks left in the melt season, the record may fall, scientists say.' Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Again, no modelling is involved - this is real time observational data. I agree with those that say the majority, if not basically, all climate models are not useful - because till now, even the most pessimistic models have not been able to predict what is happening in real time in the Arctic region. Including the impact of massive amounts of greenhouse gasses that are stored in deep freeze, so to speak - and it looks like we have pulled that freezer's plug.
A few more snowflakes in Antarctica isn't going to help.
Sorry about being such an anal loser but shouldn't one use the adjectival form for the place name when combining with "Style". You wouldn't say "Love America Style" but instead would say "Love American Style".
Long story short, it should say "Plunge Protection Team, Pakistani Style."
anyway, there was the bloomberg story from a few months ago where the traders were out in the streets throwing stones and whatnot when the pakistan markets were tumbling.
there was the other bloomy story about the SEC changing the accounting rules...yeah, thats how we does it in the West!
Not unlike many other hidden & covert bailouts that are going on right now....
Like this one....
Holders of asset-backed securities can get money 39 percent cheaper at central-bank auctions than through investors. A Spanish mortgage-backed bond rated at the highest credit rating trades with a spread of about 2.8 percentage points to the euro interbank offered rate, or Euribor. The resulting rate of 7.76 percent compares with an average rate of 4.74 percent at yesterday's ECB auction for three-month money.
rent_to_own,
The problem is that this information does not appear to be correct. Other data sources show Arctic ice having made a nice recovery this summer. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center data shows 2008 ice nearly identical to 2002, 2005 and 2006. Maps of Arctic ice extent are readily available from several sources, including the University of Illinois, which keeps a daily archive for the last 30 years. A comparison of these maps (derived from NSIDC data) below shows that Arctic ice extent was 30 per cent greater on August 11, 2008 than it was on the August 12, 2007. (2008 is a leap year, so the dates are offset by one.)
Actually, my previous post is on topic - just like the Karachi Stock Exchange, we could resolve all problems of climate change by simply saying it isn't happening. Better, we should just say it can't happen.
For example, sea ice in the Arctic is simply not permitted to drop any further. And notice the difference between the current record of 1.65 sq miles and the second lowest recording, currently 2..03 sq miles - depending on your view of percentages, that is a ca. 20% or 25% difference between the two worst recorded measurements. Though there is a simple explanation, also based on physical observation (various navies have been recording data in the Arctic since the Cold War, and especially since the 1960s, when ice thickness became relevant to nuclear submarine operations) - over the past 40 or so years, Arctic sea ice thickness has gone from something like 3 meters to 1 meter. In other words, the Arctic has been defrosting, and as any good housekeeper knows, regular defrosting makes the job go much quicker, as there is less to melt away in the frost place. Shame we don't have a second planet to use for comparison purposes, isn't it?
Obviously, those Arctic ice coverage numbers are bubble numbers, which means we will be reverting to mean any time now, right? Right? The mean determined, in part, by CO2 and other atmospheric components, right? (Enough volcanic activity, and we could cool this planet for a few years, as happened mid 1810-1820.) The components that have been rising, indisputably, since humanity has begun to burn geologically stored carbon on a scale that is geologically significant. And which seem to influence other stores of carbon, such as methane hydrates on ocean floors and in tundra permafrost formations, that we knew nothing about a generation ago.
The tide is rolling in, and we just need a couple of more determined Canutes, heads filled with the determination to ignore the waves coming up the shore.
In other words, the Arctic has been defrosting, and as any good housekeeper knows, regular defrosting makes the job go much quicker, as there is less to melt away in the frost place. Shame we don't have a second planet to use for comparison purposes, isn't it?
Ok, let's just start dumping large white plastic hollow balls into the ocean that float on the surface and reflect the sunlight the oceans would normally absorb.
Problem solved.
Just bring back snowball Earth except with big floating volleyballs.
Oh really? When was the last time you heard of a record high temperature chalked up to mere weather? Remember this is in context of you having just called a series of record lows mere weather.
Breaking News: Lehman To Be Acquired by Tooth Fairy
The market responded with enthusiasm to reports that the Tooth Fairy has agreed to acquire Lehman. The purchase price has not yet been determined and will be set by Dick Fuld wishing upon a star, clicking his heels three times, and being transported back to that magical place where Lehman still sells for over $70 per share.
In related news, Lehman has agreed to sell all of its level III capital, including CDOs, ABSs, pet rocks, baseball cards, slightly used condoms, and credit default swaps written by MBIA and Ambac. Lehmans level III capital will be acquired for 150% of its face value by Tinkerbell, who will carry it off to Neverland to be fed to a crocodile. Lehman is financing 90% of the acquisition at an interest rate that has not been announced; Tinkerbells up-front payment consists of a handful of pixie dust, three crickets, and a bullfrog. Analyst Dick Bove estimates that the bullfrog could eventually be transformed into three princes and a pumpkin coach. The deal gives Lehman no recourse to any of Tinkerbells assets other than the Level III capital. If Tinkerbell defaults, Lehmans successor entity will stick its hand down the crocodiles throat and attempt to get it to regurgitate. The firms historical value-at-risk analysis shows that sticking your hand down a crocodiles throat is completely safe.
Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson issued a statement: I am delighted that SWFs (Sovereign Wealth Fairies) continue to express confidence in the terrific values represented by American financial institutions. As I have been saying since August of 2007, this shows that the crisis is now over.
Meanwhile, the SEC has announced an investigation of mean, evil, bad short-seller David Einhorn. While out for a beer with a friend, Einhorn reportedly suggested that the Tooth Fairy does not exist and that wishing upon a star is not a wholly reliable price discovery mechanism. Christopher Cox, chairman of the SEC, said, Vicious rumors attacking the Tooth Fairy will not be tolerated. Our entire financial system and indeed the American way of life depend on the Tooth Fairy and wishing upon a star. How else could one value level III capital appropriately? The SEC is reportedly planning to set up re-education camps for short-sellers.
You know, this may seem a bit afield, but I actually knew S. Fred Singer, back when he was making the rigorous scientific case against ozone depletion. He remains a committed global warming skeptic too, using much of the same framework as with ozone depletion - though the checks he cashes seem to have grown in size over the years.
Let's look at his career -
'In 1960, Singer was one of several scientists who speculated that the Martian moon Phobos was artificial in origin. The claim was based on the erroneous conclusion that Phobos was hollow. Later observations demonstrated conclusively that Phobos was not hollow, rendering the artificial origin speculation moot'
( Fred Singer - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia )
Oops - well, that certainly gives him a good basis to understand how anyone can make wrong conclusions from simply assuming what one wants to assume without actually having reliable data.
And of course, anyone can make more than one mistake -
'In a September 24, 1993, sworn affidavit, Dr. Singer admitted to doing climate change research on behalf of oil companies, such as Exxon, Texaco, Arco, Shell and the American Gas Association. [10]
However, on February 12, 2001, Singer wrote a letter to The Washington Post "in which he denied receiving any oil company money in the previous 20 years when he had consulted for the oil industry.' S. Fred Singer - SourceWatch
Must be one of those McCain moments - can happen to anyone beyond a certain age.
Oh, here is what I was looking for -
'1. In his 1989 National Review article, Singer asserted that there was evidence for an ozone hole in the antarctic back in the 1950's. His basis was a letter to EOS by Marcel Nicolet which contained a quote from G.M.B. Dobson concerning measurement in that region in 1956-57. Even the most cursory inspection of Dobson's original paper (google my name on sci.environment on 20 January 1993, under the subject heading "Myth of the 1956 Ozone Hole") demonstrates that Singer completely misunderstood it. .... (To be fair, Singer has since conceded the mistake, although very much in sotto voce as a note to the webbed version of the National Review article....)
Singer has repeatedly claimed that back in the mid 1980's, the weight of the evidence implied that most of the chlorine in the stratosphere came from natural sources. He concedes that subsequent measurements contradict this, but insists that back in 1988 his conclusion was the right one to draw. In fact, his conclusion is based on asserting that one particular type of measurement (long-term trends in stratospheric HCl) is the only relevant one, and ignoring a cartload of other measurements going back to 1975 that lead to a different conclusion. His reasoning here has always struck me as peculiar - he concedes that he was wrong in 1988, but argues that everybody else should have made the same mistake that he did. To me, it would seem more natural to conclude that the other guys interpreted the balance of the evidence more accurately than Singer, since it was their conclusions that ended up being confirmed even by Singer's preferred choide of measurements.' John Quiggin: Junk science on ozone
Please note this point again 'he concedes that he was wrong in 1988, but argues that everybody else should have made the same mistake that he did...' He is a skeptic because he is wrong, and everybody else should be wrong too? That is rigorous scientific inquiry - assuming that we just ignore the accepted definition of both rigorous and inquiry.
As for weather - who cares about weather? What is it about some people who think that weather is the same as climate. On the other hand, having millions of square miles of ocean, which previously reflected solar radiation, start to function as collectors of that same radiation, will undoubtedly cause noticeable effects. I leave it to the imagination of others whether those effects will be contained.
Whether or not you are an anal loser is pretty much TMI, but you are a fuss bucket.
What about "New Orleans Style Shrimp" or "Kentucky Style Chicken." Kentuckian Style is not more correct, and actually sounds absurd. There really isn't a hard and fast rule about this to my knowledge.
And all the solutions to these problems involve perpetuating the disconnect between markets and reality by altering rules, asset values, measurements, and access in such a way that real values can't be effectively determined -- apparently motivated by fears of panics and popular backlash if the truth is uncovered. --AC
It's more than fears about panics and popular backlash, AC, although that's probably all the politicians are concerned with. I think it is becoming clear to some in power--more backstage than at the podiums--that the outcome of what you insist would be apocalyptic.
They're crossing fingers and toes that it's not inevitable.
But it probably is, and probably will be apocalyptic. As so many have pointed out, this is not the America of the Great Depression. This one won't just stun us, it will more likely lay waste to civilization. You could see world population drop by two-thirds in the next couple decades.
Liquidate mortgages, liquidate stocks, liquidate commodities, liquidate real estate.
Find out what stuff is worth.
Not much, because so little of it is actually productive assets. Houses, it can be argued, function to some extent as productive assets. But only up to a point. (I grew up in a small three-bedroom, one bath home that housed nine people!)
I'd guesstimate that currently most of what we call "assets" are actually worth, in productive terms, about a tenth of what they are valued at. (With the notable exception of GM, which with its factories, skilled labor force, and expertise now has a market cap less than Avon.)
Similarly, only about one out of ten jobs is really productive work. More people work for government than in manufacturing, mining, and agriculture put together, IIRC.
There are no perfect economies, to be sure. But one force has always kept economies from getting too distorted, and that is a currency tightly linked to the limited supply of gold/silver. We surrendered that PM standard under Johnson and Nixon because either it or our war-footing had to be abandoned.
Always appreciate your views, as they are in sync with my own.
if you want to see today's. It doesn't actually look quite as bad as it did last year this time, but there's about a month left of the melting season to go.
You can change the date if you want to look at different times of the year.
What's your point? The hidden assumption that the climate of the 1950's was the most salubrious ever? Have you spent even one minute of your life in the Arctic enjoying this vanishing ice? Why are you wishing perpetual severe winter on Eskimos?
A viable NW passage could have many benefits to commerce.
I just read a piece that quoted some former FHA head as saying that housing was a serious drag on the economy, the consumer cannot access the home atm, high gas prices, high food prices, bla bla bla. The stimate for GDP this morning? 2.5-3.0% GROWTH! Any economist out there want to take a stab at how in the world we are ever going to have a techinical recession with growth rates inthe 3% range? Strange indeed.
"The stimate for GDP this morning? 2.5-3.0% GROWTH! Any economist out there want to take a stab at how in the world we are ever going to have a techinical recession with growth rates inthe 3% range? Strange indeed."
Using a PCE deflator of 1.1%, there will never be a technical recession. Now, howz about a real recession based on reality and a real rate of price inflation?
What about "New Orleans Style Shrimp" or "Kentucky Style Chicken." Kentuckian Style is not more correct, and actually sounds absurd.
I should have been more clear and stated that for nations one must use the adjectival form. Since Pakistan is not likely to become the 51st state any time soon, the adjectival form (Pakistani) should be used. After all there is no France style kissing or Ireland style stew.
Free market economies are like machines. They don't seem so sometimes, but they are. Substitute in an incorrect part and a part somewhere else breaks...unintended consequences.
awgee said: "Using a PCE deflator of 1.1%, there will never be a technical recession. Now, howz about a real recession based on reality and a real rate of price inflation?"
I keep trying to tell the bears, "Okay, you don't believe the government numbers, let's look at something else, then." Like the ISM numbers, which aren't generated by the government...but also show that there was no recession and is no recession, either in manufacturing or non-manufacturing.
Volker,
A friend who lives on a pond put a plastic coyote on his lawn and a low plastic barrier. It keeps them away.
The Canada Goose is the only animal that can actually crap more than it eats.
You could see world population drop by two-thirds in the next couple decades.
phew, i thought i was pessimistic.
still, i'm not sure how one looks at this chart and comes to a conclusion that is not fairly awful. growth potential has already been compromised so severely by debt service costs that i'm not at all sure growing one's way out of the problem is truly plausible.
"Using a PCE deflator of 1.1%, there will never be a technical recession. Now, howz about a real recession based on reality and a real rate of price inflation?"
Exactly.
Clowns like Sebestian and the other "Rah, rah - USA!" types just don't get it. Incomes are flat to declining as job losses pile up, people cannot afford their debt loads, and housing prices are declining, which while good for people who want affordable housing, is utterly disasterous for all the people who have been living off their "wealth" in their housing ATM.
I really don't care what random, questionable government provided number "proves" we're not in a recession. Look around and start asking questions and it is clear we are in one. As long as the liars can claim "inflation is only 1.1%" there will never be a recession. Look at prices this year vs. last year - are they up more than a few percentage points? Obviously, they are, and thus the official GDP number is worthless... and that doesn't even get into various problems with how GDP is computed, which is another thread unto itself.
The reality is that we are in a recession, probably heading towards a depression.
The U.S. government does not officially announce recessions. It does not even define them. They are defined -- very vaguely -- by a private research organization, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The NBER announces retroactively when the U.S. economy entered a recession.
the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines it more broadly as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.
"...Denver with their record [] temps this month? "
Maybe you didn't realize it when you wrote that Dawg,, but you just typed out the very essence of what this climate change problem is about...
...setting records in the wrong directions... each global area (Karachi, Bejing, Denver) should each be within their own certain "range" of temperatures....but they're not. Just as you typed, Denver is setting records. (as are many other places)
Setting temperature records when we should NOT be....that is, quintessentially, "Climate Change"
I went to KSE's website and view the press release for Aug 27 08. It appears the price floor is fixed on the closing prices on Wednesday, not a daily reset floor price to yesterday's closing.
Since the Reagan era, financial matters became short sighted. No longer were corporations or the government interested in long term projections--it became what gets the biggest bonus or the most votes--today. Thus, bubbles are created, and empires are destroyed.
The catastrophe of global warming will not take place in my lifetime (probably), so, why worry?
Actually we have more information than that, barley.
Thing is the climate is always changing, due to all kinds of things, mostly having nothing to do with people. (I think that I read that a big climate change had to do with aerobic bateria filling the air with killer oxygen.) But of late, we have had enough power to actually make changes all by ourselves.
Some of the changes are good for some areas. For example if Russia gets warmer, I doubt that the Russians will be unhappy. But bands of desert will move. Areas where coral reefs flourish will move.
People do not adapt well to change. People who are advantaged by the changes will not want to let people who suffer from them in.
People will have to change what they do or how they make their livings. Some nice places will become uninhabitable.
People, to avoid these bad things should keep their numbers well under the maximum which a certain area, and also the total area will sustain, to avoid war and starvation.
Animals reproduce to fully fill every single niche they can. Nature is red in tooth and claw. If we want to think we are superior to the animals, or at least the OTHER animals, we should consciously limit our numbers.
Repulsive as the way the Chinese are doing it is, they, more than anybody, realize that they have to do it. Civil war in China, which in the past has involved (IIRC) hundred(s) of millions killed at a time when the population was lower than now, is far more repulsive than this.
At least the Chinese know they have a problem, and are trying to do something about it.
Idiots! GW is such hogwash. Biggest hoax ever. Don't spend one red cent trying to stop the climate from changing. That's what the climate does... change...
Oh - I should point out that I thought we would a decent system of powersats by 2010, instead of some idiotic anti-missile system being based in Eastern Europe.
But then, I am much too optimistic, it seems. Comes from growing up during the 1970s, when America still actually treated real world problems as possible to solve through understanding the physical reality behind them, and then using engineering to solve them.
Instead, America became the land of financial engineers, ones brilliant enough to realize that PR is much easier to manipulate than the world around us. Better to have loan warehouse facilities than real ones, where production is done at a keyboard using falsified data instead of in a factory using real materials.
"as opposed to real foaming at the mouth right wingers with spittle to boot?
evolution deniers and science combatants unite, right?"
No, global warming is definitely a concern. But I don't believe we're going to lose 2/3 of the population in the next decade. And there is no gold conspiracy either. An overpriced bar of gold is even less useful than an overpriced house. The zealots end up discrediting their own cause.
Bloomberg News reported from Karachi: "Police surrounded the exchange after hundreds of investors stoned the building and shouted anti-government slogans. Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan, which imposed and then removed a 1% daily limit on price declines this week, had attempted to halt a slide that wiped out $30 billion of market value in three months, threatening to undo a 14-fold rally since 2001."
I recommend following the link to see the picture of the Pakistani man running through smoke & fire in front of the building.
Operation Stocks Always Go Up has been declared a success:
KSE recovers 58.85 points as floor set on stock index
...Out of 263 companies, 133 closed in positive zone while 130 remained unchanged.
Hasnain Asghar Ali, Analyst at Aziz Fida Husein and Company said that the tempered barometer managed to stay green as the emergent measures allowed the KSE index to manage a stay in the positive territory with not a single company in the negative column. Although the measures led to a reduction in turnover, offers at previous closing stayed on the lower side, indicating that panic sellers have finally taken a sigh of relief as the sellers who came in mainly to erode values massively in these times of uncertainty for their personal interest, were made to go on a leave. Ahsan Mehanti, Senior Analyst at Shahzad Chamdia Securities in his comments over the positive index termed it due to investors expected positive results from meetings between SECP and Stock Exchange directors to stabilise the market.
Wow. And watch the trading volume go to zero...
Anything about delisting them if volume falls below some minimums? Maybe companies will start doing reverse splits (which the market won't reward with a price increase) just to get trading volume?
rookies!
Pakistan? Let mw see now, oh yes, that is the country ruled for years by one of GW Bush's best buddies:President Pervez Musharraf.
And Bush is the Pres who wants to bring democracy and freedom to the Middle East.
Any Republicans wondering why the Dems look so scary in the polls?
The funny thing is this will likely cause capital flight right into the US markets where we are merely much better at the same things.
This sounds like a clever idea to destroy their stock market. However, I like the idea of reverse splits to circumvent this, brilliant.
wheeee, wheeee, wheeee
othing more to add, perfect!
Anyone else like to fart in their hand and smell it?
My head hurts thinking about all the ways this is going to fail.
Isn't this true of all markets? When they go berserk on the way up that's OK. Major drop and trading halts. That in itself is cause for bubbles because it limits the downside if one is playing with just the index.
Good thing this nonsense is contained to the Pakistani markets.
The absurdity of this really illustrates what's going on across the global economy.
What does a market tell you about the value of a stock when a price floor has to be implemented to stop values from falling to far?
Basically it tells you that the market has nothing to do with reality.
Yet modern economies depend on markets that accurately value assets.
But now we see this disconnect around the world -- markets no longer have any relationship to the value of real world assets.
These financial organs vital to 1st world economies no longer function.
And all the solutions to these problems involve perpetuating the disconnect between markets and reality by altering rules, asset values, measurements, and access in such a way that real values can't be effectively determined -- apparently motivated by fears of panics and popular backlash if the truth is uncovered.
That path leads to doom as the financial system totally decouples from the real economy and becomes useless. The system disintegrates.
There's only one way to bring the system back to reality and maintain a 1st world economy:
Liquidate mortgages, liquidate stocks, liquidate commodities, liquidate real estate.
Find out what stuff is worth.
That's the only way markets can work.
In the glorious words of the great and wise Andrew W. Mellon:
"It will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up from less competent people.
Which, of course, is precisely what happened.
The US went on to experience decades of prosperity unprecedented in the history of the world.
This is off topic, but sometimes, I wonder if certain posters and I are living on the planet -
'New satellite measurements show that crucial sea ice in the Arctic Ocean has plummeted to its second lowest level on record.
The National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo., announced Wednesday that the extent of sea ice in the Arctic is down to 2.03 million square miles. The lowest point on record is 1.65 million square miles set last September. With about three weeks left in the melt season, the record may fall, scientists say.'
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Again, no modelling is involved - this is real time observational data. I agree with those that say the majority, if not basically, all climate models are not useful - because till now, even the most pessimistic models have not been able to predict what is happening in real time in the Arctic region. Including the impact of massive amounts of greenhouse gasses that are stored in deep freeze, so to speak - and it looks like we have pulled that freezer's plug.
A few more snowflakes in Antarctica isn't going to help.
Do not underestimate the psychological effect of this horrendous step on other markets, not only in Asia!
Sorry about being such an anal loser but shouldn't one use the adjectival form for the place name when combining with "Style". You wouldn't say "Love America Style" but instead would say "Love American Style".
Long story short, it should say "Plunge Protection Team, Pakistani Style."
So as a CEO of a company whose stock can never trade lower, what remarkable things can you do?
well, what about the options market?
anyway, there was the bloomberg story from a few months ago where the traders were out in the streets throwing stones and whatnot when the pakistan markets were tumbling.
there was the other bloomy story about the SEC changing the accounting rules...yeah, thats how we does it in the West!
Moin from Germany,
at least this intervention is obvious.....
Not unlike many other hidden & covert bailouts that are going on right now....
Like this one....
Holders of asset-backed securities can get money 39 percent cheaper at central-bank auctions than through investors. A Spanish mortgage-backed bond rated at the highest credit rating trades with a spread of about 2.8 percentage points to the euro interbank offered rate, or Euribor. The resulting rate of 7.76 percent compares with an average rate of 4.74 percent at yesterday's ECB auction for three-month money.
rent_to_own,
Ideology puts more blinders on otherwise intelligent people than anything else.
rent_to_own,
The problem is that this information does not appear to be correct. Other data sources show Arctic ice having made a nice recovery this summer. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center data shows 2008 ice nearly identical to 2002, 2005 and 2006. Maps of Arctic ice extent are readily available from several sources, including the University of Illinois, which keeps a daily archive for the last 30 years. A comparison of these maps (derived from NSIDC data) below shows that Arctic ice extent was 30 per cent greater on August 11, 2008 than it was on the August 12, 2007. (2008 is a leap year, so the dates are offset by one.)
Robert,
it was very thin ice if you read the fine print. Thin ice melts very easily again as it just did.
But the obvious doesn't matter.
Re: Signal to noise
I'm commenting as much as I can and it's not getting any better! I'm starting to think my model is flawed,...
anyone know how to get skrills into the pakistan markets?
okay, and with the sub topic, i'm goin long on arctic ice.
I thought I was the PPT.
Ohhhhh "thin ice." Like the ice on the roads around Denver with their record low temps this month? Sunspots in your eyes?
Paulson's Pakistani Team, coming to a market u know!
Actually, my previous post is on topic - just like the Karachi Stock Exchange, we could resolve all problems of climate change by simply saying it isn't happening. Better, we should just say it can't happen.
For example, sea ice in the Arctic is simply not permitted to drop any further. And notice the difference between the current record of 1.65 sq miles and the second lowest recording, currently 2..03 sq miles - depending on your view of percentages, that is a ca. 20% or 25% difference between the two worst recorded measurements. Though there is a simple explanation, also based on physical observation (various navies have been recording data in the Arctic since the Cold War, and especially since the 1960s, when ice thickness became relevant to nuclear submarine operations) - over the past 40 or so years, Arctic sea ice thickness has gone from something like 3 meters to 1 meter. In other words, the Arctic has been defrosting, and as any good housekeeper knows, regular defrosting makes the job go much quicker, as there is less to melt away in the frost place. Shame we don't have a second planet to use for comparison purposes, isn't it?
Obviously, those Arctic ice coverage numbers are bubble numbers, which means we will be reverting to mean any time now, right? Right? The mean determined, in part, by CO2 and other atmospheric components, right? (Enough volcanic activity, and we could cool this planet for a few years, as happened mid 1810-1820.) The components that have been rising, indisputably, since humanity has begun to burn geologically stored carbon on a scale that is geologically significant. And which seem to influence other stores of carbon, such as methane hydrates on ocean floors and in tundra permafrost formations, that we knew nothing about a generation ago.
The tide is rolling in, and we just need a couple of more determined Canutes, heads filled with the determination to ignore the waves coming up the shore.
Robert, you pick your spots and timing well. But do note that there is a difference between climate and weather.
In other words, the Arctic has been defrosting, and as any good housekeeper knows, regular defrosting makes the job go much quicker, as there is less to melt away in the frost place. Shame we don't have a second planet to use for comparison purposes, isn't it?
Ok, let's just start dumping large white plastic hollow balls into the ocean that float on the surface and reflect the sunlight the oceans would normally absorb.
Problem solved.
Just bring back snowball Earth except with big floating volleyballs.
Oh really? When was the last time you heard of a record high temperature chalked up to mere weather? Remember this is in context of you having just called a series of record lows mere weather.
PPT? Tonight that meant Paul Pumping Tracy.
I didn't know Pakistan created viagra for the stock market. Thankfully they're not offended that the sun goes down every evening...
Breaking News: Lehman To Be Acquired by Tooth Fairy
The market responded with enthusiasm to reports that the Tooth Fairy has agreed to acquire Lehman. The purchase price has not yet been determined and will be set by Dick Fuld wishing upon a star, clicking his heels three times, and being transported back to that magical place where Lehman still sells for over $70 per share.
In related news, Lehman has agreed to sell all of its level III capital, including CDOs, ABSs, pet rocks, baseball cards, slightly used condoms, and credit default swaps written by MBIA and Ambac. Lehmans level III capital will be acquired for 150% of its face value by Tinkerbell, who will carry it off to Neverland to be fed to a crocodile. Lehman is financing 90% of the acquisition at an interest rate that has not been announced; Tinkerbells up-front payment consists of a handful of pixie dust, three crickets, and a bullfrog. Analyst Dick Bove estimates that the bullfrog could eventually be transformed into three princes and a pumpkin coach. The deal gives Lehman no recourse to any of Tinkerbells assets other than the Level III capital. If Tinkerbell defaults, Lehmans successor entity will stick its hand down the crocodiles throat and attempt to get it to regurgitate. The firms historical value-at-risk analysis shows that sticking your hand down a crocodiles throat is completely safe.
Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson issued a statement: I am delighted that SWFs (Sovereign Wealth Fairies) continue to express confidence in the terrific values represented by American financial institutions. As I have been saying since August of 2007, this shows that the crisis is now over.
Meanwhile, the SEC has announced an investigation of mean, evil, bad short-seller David Einhorn. While out for a beer with a friend, Einhorn reportedly suggested that the Tooth Fairy does not exist and that wishing upon a star is not a wholly reliable price discovery mechanism. Christopher Cox, chairman of the SEC, said, Vicious rumors attacking the Tooth Fairy will not be tolerated. Our entire financial system and indeed the American way of life depend on the Tooth Fairy and wishing upon a star. How else could one value level III capital appropriately? The SEC is reportedly planning to set up re-education camps for short-sellers.
You know, this may seem a bit afield, but I actually knew S. Fred Singer, back when he was making the rigorous scientific case against ozone depletion. He remains a committed global warming skeptic too, using much of the same framework as with ozone depletion - though the checks he cashes seem to have grown in size over the years.
Let's look at his career -
'In 1960, Singer was one of several scientists who speculated that the Martian moon Phobos was artificial in origin. The claim was based on the erroneous conclusion that Phobos was hollow. Later observations demonstrated conclusively that Phobos was not hollow, rendering the artificial origin speculation moot'
( Fred Singer - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia )
Oops - well, that certainly gives him a good basis to understand how anyone can make wrong conclusions from simply assuming what one wants to assume without actually having reliable data.
And of course, anyone can make more than one mistake -
'In a September 24, 1993, sworn affidavit, Dr. Singer admitted to doing climate change research on behalf of oil companies, such as Exxon, Texaco, Arco, Shell and the American Gas Association. [10]
However, on February 12, 2001, Singer wrote a letter to The Washington Post "in which he denied receiving any oil company money in the previous 20 years when he had consulted for the oil industry.'
S. Fred Singer - SourceWatch
Must be one of those McCain moments - can happen to anyone beyond a certain age.
Oh, here is what I was looking for -
'1. In his 1989 National Review article, Singer asserted that there was evidence for an ozone hole in the antarctic back in the 1950's. His basis was a letter to EOS by Marcel Nicolet which contained a quote from G.M.B. Dobson concerning measurement in that region in 1956-57. Even the most cursory inspection of Dobson's original paper (google my name on sci.environment on 20 January 1993, under the subject heading "Myth of the 1956 Ozone Hole") demonstrates that Singer completely misunderstood it. .... (To be fair, Singer has since conceded the mistake, although very much in sotto voce as a note to the webbed version of the National Review article....)
John Quiggin: Junk science on ozone
Please note this point again 'he concedes that he was wrong in 1988, but argues that everybody else should have made the same mistake that he did...' He is a skeptic because he is wrong, and everybody else should be wrong too? That is rigorous scientific inquiry - assuming that we just ignore the accepted definition of both rigorous and inquiry.
As for weather - who cares about weather? What is it about some people who think that weather is the same as climate. On the other hand, having millions of square miles of ocean, which previously reflected solar radiation, start to function as collectors of that same radiation, will undoubtedly cause noticeable effects. I leave it to the imagination of others whether those effects will be contained.
Jose Medellin | 08.28.08 - 2:55 am |
Beautiful man, absolutely friggin' beautiful.
r_t_o, lovely wall o' text! bring some more to pakistan, maybe we can climb the up wave in equities together. no parachutes, no nuthi
Re: PakistaniPT
You know, if they just denominate in Zimbabwe currency, problem solved.
Hmm...the blue pill has been chosen.
Ignorance is bliss
re: kevin de bruxelles
Whether or not you are an anal loser is pretty much TMI, but you are a fuss bucket.
What about "New Orleans Style Shrimp" or "Kentucky Style Chicken." Kentuckian Style is not more correct, and actually sounds absurd. There really isn't a hard and fast rule about this to my knowledge.
What about "New Orleans Style Shrimp" or "Kentucky Style Chicken." Kentuckian Style is not more correct, and actually sounds absurd.
Hey, Norlinian and Kentuckian work for me.
But then they're both red states so I really don't care.
I figure McCain already has the hard core hillbilly redneck vote locked up.
And all the solutions to these problems involve perpetuating the disconnect between markets and reality by altering rules, asset values, measurements, and access in such a way that real values can't be effectively determined -- apparently motivated by fears of panics and popular backlash if the truth is uncovered. --AC
It's more than fears about panics and popular backlash, AC, although that's probably all the politicians are concerned with. I think it is becoming clear to some in power--more backstage than at the podiums--that the outcome of what you insist would be apocalyptic.
They're crossing fingers and toes that it's not inevitable.
But it probably is, and probably will be apocalyptic. As so many have pointed out, this is not the America of the Great Depression. This one won't just stun us, it will more likely lay waste to civilization. You could see world population drop by two-thirds in the next couple decades.
Liquidate mortgages, liquidate stocks, liquidate commodities, liquidate real estate.
Find out what stuff is worth.
Not much, because so little of it is actually productive assets. Houses, it can be argued, function to some extent as productive assets. But only up to a point. (I grew up in a small three-bedroom, one bath home that housed nine people!)
I'd guesstimate that currently most of what we call "assets" are actually worth, in productive terms, about a tenth of what they are valued at. (With the notable exception of GM, which with its factories, skilled labor force, and expertise now has a market cap less than Avon.)
Similarly, only about one out of ten jobs is really productive work. More people work for government than in manufacturing, mining, and agriculture put together, IIRC.
There are no perfect economies, to be sure. But one force has always kept economies from getting too distorted, and that is a currency tightly linked to the limited supply of gold/silver. We surrendered that PM standard under Johnson and Nixon because either it or our war-footing had to be abandoned.
Always appreciate your views, as they are in sync with my own.
If you want to see a comparison of the north sea ice cover with previous years, i wrote a java applet that does this a couple of years back.
Try:
Day/Year Time slice for polar images
if you want to see today's. It doesn't actually look quite as bad as it did last year this time, but there's about a month left of the melting season to go.
You can change the date if you want to look at different times of the year.
Pakistan index up .43% percent.
See?--it worked.
rent_to_own -
Pearls before swine.
rent_to_own writes: Sea ice is down
What's your point? The hidden assumption that the climate of the 1950's was the most salubrious ever? Have you spent even one minute of your life in the Arctic enjoying this vanishing ice? Why are you wishing perpetual severe winter on Eskimos?
A viable NW passage could have many benefits to commerce.
I hope kidbuck is kidding.
U.S., Europe, Japan Devised Plan to Prop Up Dollar, Nikkei Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aafNFhZiOg.w&refer=home
They should learn the right way to do it.
"This is funny, but doomed."
Kinda like Bush's hysteria over Georgia.
Oh, great; now I'll have to go to the red light district of Karachi to unload this stuff!
Hey, buddy, want to buy some stocks real cheap?
The US went on to experience decades of prosperity unprecedented in the history of the world..
I kinda think you forgot that bit about the Great Depression...or were you being ironic?
More background on the collapse of the Pakistan economy:
Pakistan's Stock-Market Meltdown
- TIME
I just read a piece that quoted some former FHA head as saying that housing was a serious drag on the economy, the consumer cannot access the home atm, high gas prices, high food prices, bla bla bla. The stimate for GDP this morning? 2.5-3.0% GROWTH! Any economist out there want to take a stab at how in the world we are ever going to have a techinical recession with growth rates inthe 3% range? Strange indeed.
if you should go skating......
YouTube - Pink Floyd - The Thin ice
"The stimate for GDP this morning? 2.5-3.0% GROWTH! Any economist out there want to take a stab at how in the world we are ever going to have a techinical recession with growth rates inthe 3% range? Strange indeed."
Using a PCE deflator of 1.1%, there will never be a technical recession. Now, howz about a real recession based on reality and a real rate of price inflation?
Interested Principal,
What about "New Orleans Style Shrimp" or "Kentucky Style Chicken." Kentuckian Style is not more correct, and actually sounds absurd.
I should have been more clear and stated that for nations one must use the adjectival form. Since Pakistan is not likely to become the 51st state any time soon, the adjectival form (Pakistani) should be used. After all there is no France style kissing or Ireland style stew.
Could someone remind me what was used as PCE deflator last quarter for GDP and its significance?
Free market economies are like machines. They don't seem so sometimes, but they are. Substitute in an incorrect part and a part somewhere else breaks...unintended consequences.
GDP up 3.3%. Awesome stuff! If you're not buying you're crying.
USA!
USA!
Arlington, Texas, Mall Shows Up Briefly in City Foreclosure Postings.
Arlington, Texas, Mall Shows Up Briefly in City Foreclosure Postings. | Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News | Find Articles at BNET
Also:
Sunrise Mall; Corpus Christi, Texas | Labelscar: The Retail History Blog
Anyone want to buy a mall?
Yeah well if you invested in the Pakistan market you were either ignorant, greedy or both.
kevin de bruxelles-
Canada Goose = Correct
Canadian Goose = Incorrect
mike,
Think that was from 2003. Although I doubt much has changed.
awgee said: "Using a PCE deflator of 1.1%, there will never be a technical recession. Now, howz about a real recession based on reality and a real rate of price inflation?"
I keep trying to tell the bears, "Okay, you don't believe the government numbers, let's look at something else, then." Like the ISM numbers, which aren't generated by the government...but also show that there was no recession and is no recession, either in manufacturing or non-manufacturing.
ISM - ISM Report - November 2009 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®
ISM - ISM Report - November 2009 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®
Sebastian
Couldn't a Canada Goose be Canadian as well?
kevin de bruxelles-
Canada Goose = Correct
Canadian Goose = Incorrect
well all I know for sure is they leave greasy messes all over my law
Sebastian,
(sarcasm off)
Thanks for posting those links. It adds another perspective which is critical.
Volker,
A friend who lives on a pond put a plastic coyote on his lawn and a low plastic barrier. It keeps them away.
The Canada Goose is the only animal that can actually crap more than it eats.
Is there a disconnect in the demand destruction in oil and the positive GDP numbers or has the demand destruction increased our GDP?
"The future is now, as Redskins coach Allen said" What a Macaca
Yup, the KSE move worked. Market summary for last night(Mountain time), post rule shows that the number of declining stocks was, taa daaaa..
0
-K
U.S. Q2 after-tax corporate profits weakest since Q3 '05
U.S. Q2 before-tax corporate profits down 2.4%
GDP numbers could be the high water mark
(Marketwatch.com)
anyone notice th rise in gold??
Anyone got any good Canadian goose recipes? You know, just in case we get low on squirrels...
You could see world population drop by two-thirds in the next couple decades.
phew, i thought i was pessimistic.
still, i'm not sure how one looks at this chart and comes to a conclusion that is not fairly awful. growth potential has already been compromised so severely by debt service costs that i'm not at all sure growing one's way out of the problem is truly plausible.
"Using a PCE deflator of 1.1%, there will never be a technical recession. Now, howz about a real recession based on reality and a real rate of price inflation?"
Exactly.
Clowns like Sebestian and the other "Rah, rah - USA!" types just don't get it. Incomes are flat to declining as job losses pile up, people cannot afford their debt loads, and housing prices are declining, which while good for people who want affordable housing, is utterly disasterous for all the people who have been living off their "wealth" in their housing ATM.
I really don't care what random, questionable government provided number "proves" we're not in a recession. Look around and start asking questions and it is clear we are in one. As long as the liars can claim "inflation is only 1.1%" there will never be a recession. Look at prices this year vs. last year - are they up more than a few percentage points? Obviously, they are, and thus the official GDP number is worthless... and that doesn't even get into various problems with how GDP is computed, which is another thread unto itself.
The reality is that we are in a recession, probably heading towards a depression.
Coming to a country we all know soon.
Recession is officially 2 quarters of negative growth right? (measured by who?)
Whats the official definition of a depression?
The U.S. government does not officially announce recessions. It does not even define them. They are defined -- very vaguely -- by a private research organization, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). The NBER announces retroactively when the U.S. economy entered a recession.
the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines it more broadly as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.
Recessio - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
hmmm, hope the minister of finance isn't related to the minister in charge of the nukes, seems like a rather limited bunch.
Rent to own
Good posts. Keep telling the truth.
Rob Dawg writes:
"...Denver with their record [] temps this month? "
Maybe you didn't realize it when you wrote that Dawg,, but you just typed out the very essence of what this climate change problem is about...
...setting records in the wrong directions... each global area (Karachi, Bejing, Denver) should each be within their own certain "range" of temperatures....but they're not. Just as you typed, Denver is setting records. (as are many other places)
Setting temperature records when we should NOT be....that is, quintessentially, "Climate Change"
DaddieMac re. Au
Better than the USD right now.
spam spam bacon spam writes:
"Setting temperature records when we should NOT be"
Our 80-100 year of record keeping has no relevance when the planet Earth is billions of years old. A visual reference: A pimple on an elephants ass.
I went to KSE's website and view the press release for Aug 27 08. It appears the price floor is fixed on the closing prices on Wednesday, not a daily reset floor price to yesterday's closing.
Since the Reagan era, financial matters became short sighted. No longer were corporations or the government interested in long term projections--it became what gets the biggest bonus or the most votes--today. Thus, bubbles are created, and empires are destroyed.
The catastrophe of global warming will not take place in my lifetime (probably), so, why worry?
So we mandated a floor on GDP; it can only go up?
lama wrote: "The Canada Goose is the only animal that can actually crap more than it eats."
Thus the term: Like crap through a goose!
BTW, isn't the goose a bird?
Actually we have more information than that, barley.
Thing is the climate is always changing, due to all kinds of things, mostly having nothing to do with people. (I think that I read that a big climate change had to do with aerobic bateria filling the air with killer oxygen.) But of late, we have had enough power to actually make changes all by ourselves.
Some of the changes are good for some areas. For example if Russia gets warmer, I doubt that the Russians will be unhappy. But bands of desert will move. Areas where coral reefs flourish will move.
People do not adapt well to change. People who are advantaged by the changes will not want to let people who suffer from them in.
People will have to change what they do or how they make their livings. Some nice places will become uninhabitable.
People, to avoid these bad things should keep their numbers well under the maximum which a certain area, and also the total area will sustain, to avoid war and starvation.
Animals reproduce to fully fill every single niche they can. Nature is red in tooth and claw. If we want to think we are superior to the animals, or at least the OTHER animals, we should consciously limit our numbers.
Repulsive as the way the Chinese are doing it is, they, more than anybody, realize that they have to do it. Civil war in China, which in the past has involved (IIRC) hundred(s) of millions killed at a time when the population was lower than now, is far more repulsive than this.
At least the Chinese know they have a problem, and are trying to do something about it.
Depression: When me, my neighbor, my town, my state and my government can't pay their bills.
Happening near you.
Rob Dawg writes:
The funny thing is this will likely cause capital flight right into the US markets
Capital flight? You would get your money out of the Pakistani market how?
Great way to run a market : set levels
for a floor, as though that will put any
real value in the securities if people
can't sell out.
Idiots! GW is such hogwash. Biggest hoax ever. Don't spend one red cent trying to stop the climate from changing. That's what the climate does... change...
i guess florida has nothing to worry about.. thanks for the expert analysis dashingdwl.
Consider this. How many of you know where Pakistan is located? Are aware that it does NOT border Iraq?
And how many are running for President?
But hey you can look it up on your PC
Oh - I should point out that I thought we would a decent system of powersats by 2010, instead of some idiotic anti-missile system being based in Eastern Europe.
But then, I am much too optimistic, it seems. Comes from growing up during the 1970s, when America still actually treated real world problems as possible to solve through understanding the physical reality behind them, and then using engineering to solve them.
Instead, America became the land of financial engineers, ones brilliant enough to realize that PR is much easier to manipulate than the world around us. Better to have loan warehouse facilities than real ones, where production is done at a keyboard using falsified data instead of in a factory using real materials.
what's your point ahab?
other than bloggers might be smarter than the candidates for president?
which i don't think is true.. this election.
Goldbugs and apocalyptic global warming alarmists are foaming at the mouth. They are probably a danger to themselves and others.
Bear,
The point is that the earth's climate changes over time.
Arguing that we both cause it and can prevent it is hubris of the highest order.
"global warming alarmists are foaming at the mouth"
as opposed to real foaming at the mouth right wingers with spittle to boot?
evolution deniers and science combatants unite, right?
Climate change made me kill Jesus!
"Arguing that we both cause it and can prevent it is hubris of the highest order."
you can believe what you want. millions of years of trapped carbon is being released in a century..
if you can't figure it out...
Bear writes:
"as opposed to real foaming at the mouth right wingers with spittle to boot?
evolution deniers and science combatants unite, right?"
No, global warming is definitely a concern. But I don't believe we're going to lose 2/3 of the population in the next decade. And there is no gold conspiracy either. An overpriced bar of gold is even less useful than an overpriced house. The zealots end up discrediting their own cause.
Mel writes:
"The catastrophe of global warming will not take place in my lifetime (probably), so, why worry?"
Spoken like a true YOYO. (I got mine, yer' on yer' own...)
"lose 2/3 of the population in the next decade"
who says that? have fun beating up that strawman!
This was probably the original cause of trading in the street or curb.
One of my favorite posts about investors in Pakistan is from Tom Petruno's money blog at the LA Times:
What to do about a bear market? In Pakistan, you stone it | Money & Company | Los Angeles Times
or
What to do about a bear market? In Pakistan, you stone it | Money & Company | Los Angeles Times
Bloomberg News reported from Karachi: "Police surrounded the exchange after hundreds of investors stoned the building and shouted anti-government slogans. Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan, which imposed and then removed a 1% daily limit on price declines this week, had attempted to halt a slide that wiped out $30 billion of market value in three months, threatening to undo a 14-fold rally since 2001."
I recommend following the link to see the picture of the Pakistani man running through smoke & fire in front of the building.
so, like, we aren't going to discuss economics anymore?
Operation Stocks Always Go Up has been declared a success:
KSE recovers 58.85 points as floor set on stock index
...Out of 263 companies, 133 closed in positive zone while 130 remained unchanged.
Hasnain Asghar Ali, Analyst at Aziz Fida Husein and Company said that the tempered barometer managed to stay green as the emergent measures allowed the KSE index to manage a stay in the positive territory with not a single company in the negative column. Although the measures led to a reduction in turnover, offers at previous closing stayed on the lower side, indicating that panic sellers have finally taken a sigh of relief as the sellers who came in mainly to erode values massively in these times of uncertainty for their personal interest, were made to go on a leave. Ahsan Mehanti, Senior Analyst at Shahzad Chamdia Securities in his comments over the positive index termed it due to investors expected positive results from meetings between SECP and Stock Exchange directors to stabilise the market.
Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan ];
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