CR,
When you run a marathon it is generally better to rest the week before the race. Training now will likely just make your legs tired. Oh, yes and I recommend lots of beer between then and now to carb load.
I promised to post when I sold the last bit of LEH puts. Out of the last one as of yesterday close. They have something brewing IMO....and I can't give them any chance to get back any of a 600% gain.
"Most interesting fact is that GDP grew by 3.3% in second quarter"
no, most interesting will be the econ. employment numbers Friday and all next week.
I suspect those moving the market up know that (and have a fairly good idea of what those numbers will be), hence the pump before...
This is a trader's market, and that is all it is.
We did a trans-Sierra just this last month out of Mineral King, my girlfriend and I, through Kern Canyon & out of Whitney portal. We summitted a slew of peaks and took a dip in the hot springs. Traveled with packs down to 22lb and 17lb. No tents, just bag covers and a tarp for rain (worked well the 2 nights it rained). All meals were dry carried - rice, bulgur, dates and indian lentils (dal). same thing every night for 7 days. We hiked in Tevas (with scored soles & ankle braces), since we had a lot of stream crossings and rockscrambling.
we saw only about half a dozen other hikers - until Whitney, after which it was a zoo.
Fannie and Freddie's rising relative borrowing costs have come with spreads on the mortgage-backed securities they invest in also climbing. The option-adjusted spread on fixed-rate home- loan bonds guaranteed by the companies or U.S. agency Ginnie Mae rose to 151 basis points yesterday, from 108 basis points on June 2, according to Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. data.
If their borrowing costs climb to ``some kind of distressed level, outside of corporate AAAs,'' Fannie and Freddie might be forced into sales of mortgage bonds, hurting prices and forcing up loan rates, FTN Financial Capital Markets mortgage-bond strategist Walt Schmidt said in an interview yesterday.
Among the largest buyers of GSE debt are foreigners recycling the dollars they collect as part of their trade surpluses. And the GSEs now finance virtually the entire U.S. mortgage market. If foreigners stop buying GSE bonds, the capital available to finance housing will be reduced significantly, and mortgage rates will spike. [Indeed, in this latest auction, Europeans/Asians bought 41% of Freddies debt, which is down from an average of 51% last year.] Anyone who thinks the fall in housing prices cant get much worse hasnt considered what will happen if mortgage rates go to 9-12%. More... people news old peoples breaking at oldpeoplesnews.com
LYHMD (bought between .88-1.20 sold between 7.10-9.55).
You had to have started buying last summer i don't even see that price. Pretty good. A friend bought new century and bear stearns (only a few thousand worth) so he made out like a bandit. He is the one that recommended RWT to me... Did you have Bear puts too?
There were a lot of threads where that series was being discussed!
LEH color: Yesterday, the action was in the options market where 250,000 puts (notional of nearly 1Billion USD) traded. The July 40-17.5 put spreads traded on 1million shares and that set off the frenzy. After that, April 45, 40, 35, 30, and 20 puts traded to the tune of 2million shares each. CDS widened and vols / skew screamed higher. The market for July variance was 110-130. that means the market is predicting the stock moves an avg of 7.6% (or roughly 3 bucks) everyday for the next 3 months
a reprint- from 3.28.08
the dicussion came about because someone thought the 20's were pretty pricey when LEH was at 40-45!
Nice trade MS, I got some of that also, but was gone a long time ago.
Elvis, no worries, I've backed way off this week. My last hard day was Sunday, although I went on an easy 9 mile hike on Monday.
arun, sounds like a fun hike. I've been through most of Sequoia, but I haven't hike over to Whitney from Mineral King. Whitney is always a zoo ... but at least they limit the day hikers now.
Ross, I'll be one hungry bear! I'll probably be a little tired for a day to two also. Oh well, the joy of adventure.
Mortgages have rallied decently over the last couple of days. Current coupon Fannie thirty year's have rallied about 15 bps from their wides (vs. 10's) in about 10 days. There does seem to be some relief trade in spread markets over the last week or so.
Started last summer but made additional buys as late as this spring on a very few opps to get it...wasn't there for long.
BSC?? Nahh didn't participate in that one...wish I did though. In the next few weeks I will be looking at some LEH for 2010 but not now since they've got some "moment" coming to drive up it's share price back over 20 methinks. IF they do without getting folded into someone else that will be the moment for those.
Gotta love the short crowd in SHLD.....If that sort of report can't sink it below 85.......
Nice to see that peak oil myth has been put to bed. Hurricane in the gulf and that crap is falling like a rock while natural gas the other white meat is getting crushed like a bug.
A question I came across. would be interested in what the answer is....anyone?
"is it true that when a home is foreclosed and resold it counts as 2 sales in the data? If so, home sales would be disastrous, not that they already aren't."
Wow, I got got a fixed 30 last August 6.5, good to know the banker wasn't actually lying about giving me a deal. I just assumed it was part of the sales pitch.
It was a zoo in the early 70's couldn't imagine what kind of a cluster it would be now.
indian lentils ?
so these cook OK in altitude?
(because I can tell you beans do not...)
I'd rather stay home than hike on an overcrowded trail--bumper-to-bumper hiking, I call it. Experienced it earlier this year on Cascade Pass in the Tetons. And it keeps getting harder to find anything remotely approaching remoteness, without a helicopter or a two-day slog into the wilderness.
High altitude cooking! The memories...using up half my store of propane the first night, trying to get rice to stop being crunchy at 9000 feet or so near the summit of Wheeler Peak in New Mexico...I was new to higher elevations at the time.
They are drilling for natural gas all over the appalachian coal bed. I've got a friend who owns 36 acres. A company wants to pay him 2k a month per acre just for the rights to drill. If they find gas and put in a well that payment rises to 20k a month per acre.
Get rich by owning a random lot of woods. I guess that's the new American dream or something.
By trading government securities, the New York Fed affects the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances to each other overnight. The Federal Open Market Committee establishes the target rate for trading in the federal funds market.
"is it true that when a home is foreclosed and resold it counts as 2 sales in the data? If so, home sales would be disastrous, not that they already aren't."
if you mean Case Shiller, the answer is no.
I looked it up on their website yesterday or the day before.
They only count "arms length's transactions", and they state specifically that they do NOT count a foreclosure where the house is "sold" back to the bank, but they then DO count the sale when the bank sells to a 3rd party.
Hey it's all over. The idea of a financial crisis was a hoax. We are growing, and the market is up and things are fine in real estate. Whoopee, we can begin again to spend and spend and spend. No barriers now.
Hey Lehman's in great shape. Didn't I read that someone found a vault filled to the brim with gold in the basement? I mean the idea that they don't have assets is just hoooey. LOL
Grizzly Adams:
9000 feet? that would be my "baseline" !
the bad "bean cooking" experience was at around 12000 feet, forget the propane, I don't think there would have been enough wood around
memories indeed ...
US, Europe, Japan Planned Dollar Rescue TOKYO (Reuters) - The United States, Europe and Japan planned joint intervention to rescue the dollar when it was plunging in March at the time U.S. investment bank Bear Stearns collapsed, the Nikkei business newspaper reported.
oh yes we were "green" too, mostly that trip was "improvised in a hurry" rather than prepared... but I could try and blame it on the fact that an Englishman was in charge of the food stocks
Since this thread is all over the place anyway, here is the latest on what the gubmint thinks might be happening re climate change. Scientific Assessment
you have to click through the linked words 'scientific assesmeent' on the first page. Lots of data for those who might be interested.
"Gross domestic income, or the money earned by the people, businesses and government agencies whose purchases go into calculating gross domestic product, rose 0.3 percent in the 12 months ended in June after adjusting for inflation, according to Bloomberg calculations based on today's Commerce Department growth report. GDP expanded 2.2 percent."
"Incomes last quarter grew 1.9 percent at an annual rate after adjusting for inflation, a little more than half the 3.3 percent gain posted by GDP, according to Bloomberg calculations. The figures showed incomes dropped in each of the prior two quarters"
``The GDI numbers raise the potential that GDP is overstating growth.''
"Corporate profits were down 7 percent in the year to June, the biggest drop since the last economic contraction in 2001, according to the Commerce Department. The government also said wages and salaries increased by $52.5 billion in the first three months of the year, $20.2 billion less than previously estimated. "
"The income numbers are more in line with other figures that indicate the economy struggled from April through June. The jobless rate was 5.5 percent in June, up from 5.1 percent at the end of the first quarter, and employers cut 165,000 workers from payrolls, according to the Labor Department. "
I'm looking at the labor market, and the GDP income numbers make more sense,'' said Ryding.It certainly did not feel like 3.3 percent growth.''
"The earnings data may more accurately predict the start of economic contractions, according to researchers at the Federal Reserve. "
Windowdog writes:
I'm actually an Eagle Scout, served in the Army, and I hate hiking with a passion, always have.
Yeah, I don't get it either.
As a hiker, I am grateful to you. I hope you will spread the hatred of hiking more widely. (I have noted that service in the military appears to have instilled hatred of hiking in many people...just one more reason to support our Armed Forces. Not that we needed one.)
I hate it when you meet someone on the trail. Thank God it doesn't happen up here very much, if ever, where I go hiking. You guys have too many people living in your country.
un autre Canadien avec popcorn writes:
I hate it when you meet someone on the trail. Thank God it doesn't happen up here very much, if ever, where I go hiking. You guys have too many people living in your country.
Up in Northwest Washington, people come down from BC to hike on U.S. trails.
you know it will Russ. i used to work for a company that stuffed the channel every quarter and revised every previous quarter because the product was always returned.
Trails are for sissies. No but seriously, there are some nice trails and some good backcountry in Wash. I've heard. Never hiked there. Best hike I've done so far was the Stein Valley here in BC a few years ago. Drop in over the Lizzie Lk. pass near Pemberton. Crazy bushwacking steeps for the first part, blizzard in July, week later come out the other end near Lytton. Hot weather, big fires, big trees, lots of animals, didn't meet another soul. Priceless.
The discount rates reflect that the bills sell for less than face value. For a $10,000 bill, the three-month price was $9,956.30, while a six-month bill sold for $9,902.68. That would equal an annualized rate of 1.741 percent for the three-month bills, and 1.971 percent for the six-month bills.
Separately, the Federal Reserve said Monday that the average yield for one-year Treasury bills, a popular index for making changes in adjustable rate mortgages, dropped to 2.12 percent last week from 2.18 percent the previous week.
I mean, I'm all for being outdoors but there's a reason we evolved to come out of the caves and domesticate animals. It's like my friends that love camping. My response is, generally, if I wanted to sleep on dirt I wouldn't vacuum and if I wanted to eat bad food I'd just go to my mother's house. I don't see what the point is in climbing up to 12000 feet to eat crunchy rice, I can do that at my parent's. If I'm up at 12000 feet, at least I want some freefall time!
I don't mind hiking, but I'd like a motel room at the end of the day(cheap will suffice) with a shower, and a good hot breakfast to follow the next morning. Luckily the hub agrees with not sleeping outside.
As a hiker, I am grateful to you. I hope you will spread the hatred of hiking more widely. (I have noted that service in the military appears to have instilled hatred of hiking in many people...just one more reason to support our Armed Forces. Not that we needed one.)
Grizzly Adams | 08.28.08 - 2:30 pm | #
My father spent 25 years in the military - five years active in the army in WWII then 20 years reserves & guard... He DESPISED hiking after all those forced marches. Loved wilderness but only wanted to get there via canoe or sailboat - otherwise pass.
Riddle me this, Batman! I'm getting quotes from various lenders and brokers, and one of the brokers is coming in a hair under the directs. 5.59 on a conforming 15 year. No YSP disclosure at this point, but unless the directs are padding their bids a hell of alot there isn't much room for one. Wassup?
dryfly writes:
"My father DESPISED hiking after all those forced marches."
that is funny you say that, a friend of mine calls my hiking trips exactly that, as in "I am not going on another of your death marches"... I thought the guy was just a luxury addict
I also spent two years as a paid assasin for Uncle Sam. As a result, I have never spent a night on the ground since 1969. Yeah, you try marching all night, putting up a pup tent on the side of hill, and trying to sleep on rocks. Then at daybreak you get to stand in line and eat food in the rain. Commume with nature my ass.
rice, bulgur & lentils (indian "dalia") were par-boiled, so very quick to cook at altitide. you buy this stuff from the indian groceries. learnt this trekking around the annapurna himal, very inexpensive, very light. spiced with miso, yeast flakes, & a bit of turmeric and garlic. we managed twice to find, in watershed areas, miners lettuce and wild blueberries (mostly dry on the bushes & very tart/tangy) for awesome salad.
Contrary to the Canadien, i enjoy meeting others in the backcountry. often, they are germans or australians, or icelanders (like we met on this trip) and we get to exchange notes and make changes to our own trips, or even hike together for a bit and share our meals. the germans have the most detailed topo maps with all sorts of details on spring locations and wild food sources and alternate ascents and estimated water levels etc.
aside from the beans we had plenty of dried oatmeal, which I personally prefered uncooked, along with tea with dried milk (at least that is very light)
On the way back we found several local restaurants that I keep recommending to everyone, but people question my "ratings" considering the week of taste buds "starvation"
Bring us back some squirrel, y'hear?
Interesting to see whether the downpayment requirements are drifting downwards too.
Most interesting fact is that GDP grew by 3.3% in second quarter.
U.S. Economy: Growth Faster Than Initially Estimated on Exports - Bloomberg.com
And the incestuous wall street pump monkeys are having an orgy today. Baghdad Bob is proud.
CR,
When you run a marathon it is generally better to rest the week before the race. Training now will likely just make your legs tired. Oh, yes and I recommend lots of beer between then and now to carb load.
OT:
I promised to post when I sold the last bit of LEH puts. Out of the last one as of yesterday close. They have something brewing IMO....and I can't give them any chance to get back any of a 600% gain.
Ciao
MS
ewbie -
"GDP is out, ticking higher to 3.3% rather than 2.7%
And if you believe that data, I also have a bridge for sale in Brooklyn."
The Big Picture
1330c spu strike....
boooyahahahaha
600% gain
"your tax dollars will be appreciated" H.P.
Are strip clubs counted in GDP???
"The naked truth: Strip-club business slow"
The naked truth: Strip-club business slow - The Denver Post
"Most interesting fact is that GDP grew by 3.3% in second quarter"
no, most interesting will be the econ. employment numbers Friday and all next week.
I suspect those moving the market up know that (and have a fairly good idea of what those numbers will be), hence the pump before...
This is a trader's market, and that is all it is.
Enjoy the hike CR - pix plz!!!
Have a lovely time.
This is a trader's market, and that is all it is.
Genevieve
Bestill my heart, Genevieve. You are correct.
Have a nice time CR. Don't eat too much squirrel.
Enjoy! Take bear spray, as bears appear to be agitated by this being an election year.
are you an xtreme hiker, CR?
We did a trans-Sierra just this last month out of Mineral King, my girlfriend and I, through Kern Canyon & out of Whitney portal. We summitted a slew of peaks and took a dip in the hot springs. Traveled with packs down to 22lb and 17lb. No tents, just bag covers and a tarp for rain (worked well the 2 nights it rained). All meals were dry carried - rice, bulgur, dates and indian lentils (dal). same thing every night for 7 days. We hiked in Tevas (with scored soles & ankle braces), since we had a lot of stream crossings and rockscrambling.
we saw only about half a dozen other hikers - until Whitney, after which it was a zoo.
here's to nature!
dm-
Only suckers pay taxes going forward....
I can make it look "happy" in reverse to suit my needs just like these insolvent banks.
They do it....so why not me. Very "big" year for "expenses"
and for you doubter's out there go look up LYHMD (bought between .88-1.20 sold between 7.10-9.55). Just so you don't get cute and all that.
Ciao
MS
"until Whitney, after which it was a zoo."
It was a zoo in the early 70's couldn't imagine what kind of a cluster it would be now.
If their borrowing costs climb to ``some kind of distressed level, outside of corporate AAAs,'' Fannie and Freddie might be forced into sales of mortgage bonds, hurting prices and forcing up loan rates, FTN Financial Capital Markets mortgage-bond strategist Walt Schmidt said in an interview yesterday.
"the incestuous wall street pump monkeys are having an orgy today."
401k inflows go in the last Friday of the month, remember the old saying: never give a sucker and even break.
LYHMD (bought between .88-1.20 sold between 7.10-9.55).
You had to have started buying last summer i don't even see that price. Pretty good. A friend bought new century and bear stearns (only a few thousand worth) so he made out like a bandit. He is the one that recommended RWT to me... Did you have Bear puts too?
OH yeah MS could you let us know when you sell your euro short too. thanks
Damn CR,
Coming back from your walk in the park will make you a real skinny bear. Hungry too, I bet.
There were a lot of threads where that series was being discussed!
LEH color: Yesterday, the action was in the options market where 250,000 puts (notional of nearly 1Billion USD) traded. The July 40-17.5 put spreads traded on 1million shares and that set off the frenzy. After that, April 45, 40, 35, 30, and 20 puts traded to the tune of 2million shares each. CDS widened and vols / skew screamed higher. The market for July variance was 110-130. that means the market is predicting the stock moves an avg of 7.6% (or roughly 3 bucks) everyday for the next 3 months
a reprint- from 3.28.08
the dicussion came about because someone thought the 20's were pretty pricey when LEH was at 40-45!
Nice trade MS, I got some of that also, but was gone a long time ago.
Nominal GDP @ 4.2%
Inflation @ 6.5%
Real GDP minus 2.3%
Book em Dano!
rally to 200 before lunch..
SHLD up almost 3.5 after 2Q profit drop of 62%
where do i sign up?
Arun:
indian lentils ?
so these cook OK in altitude?
(because I can tell you beans do not...)
"SHLD up almost 3.5 after 2Q profit drop of 62%"
Didn't you get the memo? The economy is booming! Those Sears results will surely reverse.
Newbie writes:
Most interesting fact is that GDP grew by 3.3% in second quarter.
Part of the reason the GDP number looked so good was because the GDP price index for the second quarter was marked at just 1.2."
The Big Picture
Elvis, no worries, I've backed way off this week. My last hard day was Sunday, although I went on an easy 9 mile hike on Monday.
arun, sounds like a fun hike. I've been through most of Sequoia, but I haven't hike over to Whitney from Mineral King. Whitney is always a zoo ... but at least they limit the day hikers now.
Ross, I'll be one hungry bear! I'll probably be a little tired for a day to two also. Oh well, the joy of adventure.
Best to all.
Mortgages have rallied decently over the last couple of days. Current coupon Fannie thirty year's have rallied about 15 bps from their wides (vs. 10's) in about 10 days. There does seem to be some relief trade in spread markets over the last week or so.
I'm feeling really confident that if we can ignore a few more problems, we may welcome back goldilocks.
DM-
Started last summer but made additional buys as late as this spring on a very few opps to get it...wasn't there for long.
BSC?? Nahh didn't participate in that one...wish I did though. In the next few weeks I will be looking at some LEH for 2010 but not now since they've got some "moment" coming to drive up it's share price back over 20 methinks. IF they do without getting folded into someone else that will be the moment for those.
Gotta love the short crowd in SHLD.....If that sort of report can't sink it below 85.......
But I hear it's all contained....
Ciao
MS
Nice to see that peak oil myth has been put to bed. Hurricane in the gulf and that crap is falling like a rock while natural gas the other white meat is getting crushed like a bug.
A question I came across. would be interested in what the answer is....anyone?
"is it true that when a home is foreclosed and resold it counts as 2 sales in the data? If so, home sales would be disastrous, not that they already aren't."
Mortgage rates going higher:
Sorry. Page not found.
Wow, I got got a fixed 30 last August 6.5, good to know the banker wasn't actually lying about giving me a deal. I just assumed it was part of the sales pitch.
"until Whitney, after which it was a zoo."
It was a zoo in the early 70's couldn't imagine what kind of a cluster it would be now.
indian lentils ?
so these cook OK in altitude?
(because I can tell you beans do not...)
I'd rather stay home than hike on an overcrowded trail--bumper-to-bumper hiking, I call it. Experienced it earlier this year on Cascade Pass in the Tetons. And it keeps getting harder to find anything remotely approaching remoteness, without a helicopter or a two-day slog into the wilderness.
High altitude cooking! The memories...using up half my store of propane the first night, trying to get rice to stop being crunchy at 9000 feet or so near the summit of Wheeler Peak in New Mexico...I was new to higher elevations at the time.
CR - Watch for the bears.
On second thought, nevermind - all the bears are in here.
They are drilling for natural gas all over the appalachian coal bed. I've got a friend who owns 36 acres. A company wants to pay him 2k a month per acre just for the rights to drill. If they find gas and put in a well that payment rises to 20k a month per acre.
Get rich by owning a random lot of woods. I guess that's the new American dream or something.
peak oil myth? come back in a couple of years when demand really is greater than supply..
By trading government securities, the New York Fed affects the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances to each other overnight. The Federal Open Market Committee establishes the target rate for trading in the federal funds market.
Note: The New York Fed discontinued publication of period-to-date and month-to-date average values as of August 21, 2006.
Federal Funds Rate Data - Federal Reserve Bank of New York
"until Whitney, after which it was a zoo."
since 1970, there are an additional 3 billion people on the planet...
some of them are not in the subset of couch potato perma-bloggers
since 1970, there are an additional 3 billion people on the planet...
That's a lot of assholes.
for next year....
maybe diapers should be the focus....
07/01/08 6,706,992,932
08/01/08 6,713,766,305
09/01/08 6,720,539,678
10/01/08 6,727,094,555
11/01/08 6,733,867,928
12/01/08 6,740,422,806
01/01/09 6,747,196,179
02/01/09 6,753,969,552
03/01/09 6,760,087,438
04/01/09 6,766,860,811
05/01/09 6,773,415,688
06/01/09 6,780,189,061
07/01/09 6,786,743,939
80 million more a-holes,
3 day weekend! That means there's more time for the FDIC to do complex banking undertaker exercises. Busy FDIC PR day Friday?
We need a weekly bank failure pool !
"is it true that when a home is foreclosed and resold it counts as 2 sales in the data? If so, home sales would be disastrous, not that they already aren't."
if you mean Case Shiller, the answer is no.
I looked it up on their website yesterday or the day before.
They only count "arms length's transactions", and they state specifically that they do NOT count a foreclosure where the house is "sold" back to the bank, but they then DO count the sale when the bank sells to a 3rd party.
Clean, dry socks are worth more than Pt after a month on the trail.
Have a safe trip.
Hurry back CR, PJ doesn't do things like you do, he's mean to us,... and his posts smell funny.
vix...
Hey it's all over. The idea of a financial crisis was a hoax. We are growing, and the market is up and things are fine in real estate. Whoopee, we can begin again to spend and spend and spend. No barriers now.
Lehman firing 1,500 workers, or about 6% of its workforce before it announces 3Q results.
Bullish!
Have a great time CR. Really looking forward to those predictions when you come back.
Hey Lehman's in great shape. Didn't I read that someone found a vault filled to the brim with gold in the basement? I mean the idea that they don't have assets is just hoooey. LOL
Grizzly Adams:
9000 feet? that would be my "baseline" !
the bad "bean cooking" experience was at around 12000 feet, forget the propane, I don't think there would have been enough wood around
memories indeed ...
Rally Monkey writes:
vix...
getting there
Anonymous wrote
Nice to see that peak oil myth has been put to bed.
Anonymous 12:54 pm
was this snark??
cause,actually it aint really peak oil
its plateau oil
and it aint a myth
ps the back side of the plateau will be way steeper than the front!
I tried cooking spegett close to Independence Pass Colo. once.
Boy was I green.
Windowdog. Two words for your friend.
Jed Clampet.
Did anyone catch this news today:
US, Europe, Japan Planned Dollar Rescue
TOKYO (Reuters) - The United States, Europe and Japan planned joint intervention to rescue the dollar when it was plunging in March at the time U.S. investment bank Bear Stearns collapsed, the Nikkei business newspaper reported.
Ross writes:
"Boy was I green".
oh yes we were "green" too, mostly that trip was "improvised in a hurry" rather than prepared... but I could try and blame it on the fact that an Englishman was in charge of the food stocks
enjoy your hike!
Mr. Beach referenced reuters story :
The United States, Europe and Japan planned joint intervention to rescue the dollar when it was plunging in March
coincidence?
gold was at its peak the week they made this plan and then gold dropped 75 $ an ounce like right away...
nothing to see here... move along
ps try and find a report on IMF gold sales since last march...hush hush
decoupling will not take place until intromission is complete
Since this thread is all over the place anyway, here is the latest on what the gubmint thinks might be happening re climate change. Scientific Assessment
you have to click through the linked words 'scientific assesmeent' on the first page. Lots of data for those who might be interested.
Incomes Flashing Clearer U.S. Recession Signal Over Last Year
Lagging Incomes Signal U.S. Economy Weaker Than GDP Suggests - Bloomberg.com
"Gross domestic income, or the money earned by the people, businesses and government agencies whose purchases go into calculating gross domestic product, rose 0.3 percent in the 12 months ended in June after adjusting for inflation, according to Bloomberg calculations based on today's Commerce Department growth report. GDP expanded 2.2 percent."
"Incomes last quarter grew 1.9 percent at an annual rate after adjusting for inflation, a little more than half the 3.3 percent gain posted by GDP, according to Bloomberg calculations. The figures showed incomes dropped in each of the prior two quarters"
``The GDI numbers raise the potential that GDP is overstating growth.''
"Corporate profits were down 7 percent in the year to June, the biggest drop since the last economic contraction in 2001, according to the Commerce Department. The government also said wages and salaries increased by $52.5 billion in the first three months of the year, $20.2 billion less than previously estimated. "
"The income numbers are more in line with other figures that indicate the economy struggled from April through June. The jobless rate was 5.5 percent in June, up from 5.1 percent at the end of the first quarter, and employers cut 165,000 workers from payrolls, according to the Labor Department. "
I'm looking at the labor market, and the GDP income numbers make more sense,'' said Ryding.It certainly did not feel like 3.3 percent growth.''
"The earnings data may more accurately predict the start of economic contractions, according to researchers at the Federal Reserve. "
I'm actually an Eagle Scout, served in the Army, and I hate hiking with a passion, always have.
Yeah, I don't get it either.
im surprised the bush admin didn't censor that report.
Windowdog writes:
I'm actually an Eagle Scout, served in the Army, and I hate hiking with a passion, always have.
Yeah, I don't get it either.
As a hiker, I am grateful to you. I hope you will spread the hatred of hiking more widely. (I have noted that service in the military appears to have instilled hatred of hiking in many people...just one more reason to support our Armed Forces. Not that we needed one.)
I hate it when you meet someone on the trail. Thank God it doesn't happen up here very much, if ever, where I go hiking. You guys have too many people living in your country.
un autre Canadien avec popcorn writes:
I hate it when you meet someone on the trail. Thank God it doesn't happen up here very much, if ever, where I go hiking. You guys have too many people living in your country.
Up in Northwest Washington, people come down from BC to hike on U.S. trails.
Most interesting fact is that GDP grew by 3.3% in second quarter.
And 18 months from now the 2Q2008 figure will be revised downward.
you know it will Russ. i used to work for a company that stuffed the channel every quarter and revised every previous quarter because the product was always returned.
I have a friend who lives in Appalachia, and actually owns the mineral rights to some/all of her land.
Coupla years ago, she was offered a pittance.
Said no.
Bear, if you look at the words in the title, they made it difficult to google.
Trails are for sissies. No but seriously, there are some nice trails and some good backcountry in Wash. I've heard. Never hiked there. Best hike I've done so far was the Stein Valley here in BC a few years ago. Drop in over the Lizzie Lk. pass near Pemberton. Crazy bushwacking steeps for the first part, blizzard in July, week later come out the other end near Lytton. Hot weather, big fires, big trees, lots of animals, didn't meet another soul. Priceless.
Back on topic:
The discount rates reflect that the bills sell for less than face value. For a $10,000 bill, the three-month price was $9,956.30, while a six-month bill sold for $9,902.68. That would equal an annualized rate of 1.741 percent for the three-month bills, and 1.971 percent for the six-month bills.
Separately, the Federal Reserve said Monday that the average yield for one-year Treasury bills, a popular index for making changes in adjustable rate mortgages, dropped to 2.12 percent last week from 2.18 percent the previous week.
Traffic way down here at CR, whats up?
3day weekend upcoming, burning man.
and I hate hiking with a passion, always have.
I mean, I'm all for being outdoors but there's a reason we evolved to come out of the caves and domesticate animals. It's like my friends that love camping. My response is, generally, if I wanted to sleep on dirt I wouldn't vacuum and if I wanted to eat bad food I'd just go to my mother's house. I don't see what the point is in climbing up to 12000 feet to eat crunchy rice, I can do that at my parent's. If I'm up at 12000 feet, at least I want some freefall time!
I don't mind hiking, but I'd like a motel room at the end of the day(cheap will suffice) with a shower, and a good hot breakfast to follow the next morning. Luckily the hub agrees with not sleeping outside.
As a hiker, I am grateful to you. I hope you will spread the hatred of hiking more widely. (I have noted that service in the military appears to have instilled hatred of hiking in many people...just one more reason to support our Armed Forces. Not that we needed one.)
Grizzly Adams | 08.28.08 - 2:30 pm | #
My father spent 25 years in the military - five years active in the army in WWII then 20 years reserves & guard... He DESPISED hiking after all those forced marches. Loved wilderness but only wanted to get there via canoe or sailboat - otherwise pass.
Riddle me this, Batman! I'm getting quotes from various lenders and brokers, and one of the brokers is coming in a hair under the directs. 5.59 on a conforming 15 year. No YSP disclosure at this point, but unless the directs are padding their bids a hell of alot there isn't much room for one. Wassup?
dryfly writes:
"My father DESPISED hiking after all those forced marches."
that is funny you say that, a friend of mine calls my hiking trips exactly that, as in "I am not going on another of your death marches"... I thought the guy was just a luxury addict
I also spent two years as a paid assasin for Uncle Sam. As a result, I have never spent a night on the ground since 1969. Yeah, you try marching all night, putting up a pup tent on the side of hill, and trying to sleep on rocks. Then at daybreak you get to stand in line and eat food in the rain. Commume with nature my ass.
Genevieve:
rice, bulgur & lentils (indian "dalia") were par-boiled, so very quick to cook at altitide. you buy this stuff from the indian groceries. learnt this trekking around the annapurna himal, very inexpensive, very light. spiced with miso, yeast flakes, & a bit of turmeric and garlic. we managed twice to find, in watershed areas, miners lettuce and wild blueberries (mostly dry on the bushes & very tart/tangy) for awesome salad.
Contrary to the Canadien, i enjoy meeting others in the backcountry. often, they are germans or australians, or icelanders (like we met on this trip) and we get to exchange notes and make changes to our own trips, or even hike together for a bit and share our meals. the germans have the most detailed topo maps with all sorts of details on spring locations and wild food sources and alternate ascents and estimated water levels etc.
arun
.
Thanks Arun,
I love Indian food
aside from the beans we had plenty of dried oatmeal, which I personally prefered uncooked, along with tea with dried milk (at least that is very light)
On the way back we found several local restaurants that I keep recommending to everyone, but people question my "ratings" considering the week of taste buds "starvation"
Annapurna sanctuary is still on my list of "next"