"Only 27 visitors? What is wrong with you people."
Imminent collapse doesn't seem to be on order for tomorrow. If it was, there'd be 400 people here like there was on the eve of what was widely presumed to be the Bear collapse, which many believed would precipitate the Great Deleveraging. IIRC, relatively few here were predicting that the bailout was coming the way it did.
Which means, if you believe in contrary indicators, all hell will break loose in the markets tomorrow (today)...
WOW- we HAVE NOT seen numbers like that in mortagage volume in the US.
This is an insane percentage decline in new UK mortgages yoy, whereas the US drop in loans has been much more modest (and I keep wondering why).
Are UK lenders smelling the coffee (er... tea) faster than US lenders even though their bust has lagged ours? Or is it the buyers that are shying away more?
Seems that the US lenders couldn't be much worse with Wachovia and WaMu JUST NOW shutting down their Neg Am products.
Just wait until funny fannie and fatty freddie go tits up, then you'll see a bit of cliff-diving for US mortgage originations. Or the government will step and and that will be the last straw that will send treasury yields and mortgages rates straight to the moon!!! Wooohooo!!!
I've been trying to find that info for the last week, wondering what the Fed could/would do. People kept talking about liquidity draining, but that's a south Texas sized sink hole...
kinda hope they're saving their ammo for a head shot. Remember you can only kill zombies with a head shot.
Yippee! Let UK prices drop by 60%. Maybe then people will be able to buy without sending their grandkids into debt. And maybe estate agents won't all be driving Maseratis by then.
Thanks, mp.... I LOVE studying liquidity traps.. I was a mere boy freshman when I first understood liquidity traps had something to do with 1929.
The epiphany opened my eyes to economics, and other dismal sciences.
It's just amazing watching this happen in real time. This reminds me to move a lot more money into my international bond funds tomorrow, too.
I'm in pretty heavy on the international bond funds too, but mostly to diversify out of cash and a largish lump of Ibonds I bought when they were coming out.
Do you really think that the international treasuries are going to stay safe for a year or so, or are you figuring to rotate out quickly, if/when deflation starts to hit?
The only meaningful way Bernanke can intervene at this point is to raise rates, and we all know what will happen to the US economy if he does that. If the G7 does it, it would probably be viewed as a meaningless act of mercy.
US House Prices Forecast Summary - Nominal US House Prices are forecast to fall by 30% from the Mid 2006 peak by the end of 2010, or a further 11% on the decline of 19% to date. US house prices will continue falling in real-terms even if a low in nominal house prices is made by mid 2010.
As per this analysis there is no sign of a BUY trigger occurring within the next 2 1/2 years.
July 1 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of America Corp. will buy Countrywide Financial Corp., the home lender battered by the collapse of the subprime mortgage market, for about $2.5 billion, 37 percent less than originally planned.
Yah know, this is all starting to sound like War Of The Worlds or some kinda disaster movie, maybe even a world war, with news reel footage of the battles. The carnage of the CEOs is at hand and woe to the might elf kings that doomed!
I think in the UK a first time buyer now needs a 10% deposit to buy which is more or less beyond most peoples abilities. Similar difficulties for other mortgages. I read that Northern Rock are pricing rates to ensure most people who can, will move to other lenders. Rates in the UK have gone up pretty rapidly in the last few months generally.
My feeling at the moment is that rates are going to go very much higher.
I returned to UK in 2006 to find house prices had doubled in five years and tripled in ten. Numerous "friends" told me to get a mortgage quick because prices were going to the moon. The first mortgage broker I contacted--he'd never met me or heard of me before--offered me £500,000 ($1,000,000) no questions asked. No interest in credit history or even if I was currently employed! And by God I almost took him up on it. But something didn't feel right, and I have always been cautious because my father was a bankrupt. And now look. I'm no longer being told by all and sundry that UK housing "never goes down," and estate agents are returning my calls (I'm not buying, I just love to mess them around, they're all twerps). For a while there I thought the laws of economics had been repealed, but I am delighted to report that they have not and are about to take revenge on all the greedy, arrogant, undeserving, complacent, ill-informed British. It's about blinkin' time, squire.
On topic of futures market, yes it's bad for those who tried to catch that Ginsu, but either this is a crash (~20%+ decline in market in 1 day) or this is the culmination of an unsustainable downtrend.
Yes I'm pissed I sold my double short Proshares last Friday; I figure the DOW is about 200-300 points from its lower trend channel that should offer serious support.
200-300 points from its lower trend channel that should offer serious support.
Not if Trichet can do anything about it in a few days.
Dollar is still too strong to have any adverse effects.
Gold would be a good buy today for gamblers.
From the Torygraph: "Unless they have got a substantial deposit of at least 10pc of the value of the property first time buyers cant get a mortgage."
Well, one good thing from this mess is that the definition of substantial deposit will be a bit north of 10%.
Love this blog - I'm an American married and residing in Euroland on spouse's Euro-pension. Can anyone here advise me what to do with cash saved in US banks? Keep rolling the CDs over is my plan (all within FDIC limits), in case I have to move back home in old age.
The median house price in the UK is about Usd 370,000, compared to 210k in the US, yet median household income in the UK is about 20% lower than in the US. Admittedly, London totally distorts any measure of the UK housing market, but the FSA has told UK banks to stress test their portfolios assuming a 40% decline in housing prices. The UK economy is about to have a very hard landing in my opinion.
It looks like the brits need an "FHA".
No DP, $1000 cash back at closing and their new slogan is "Buy HUD with FHA". I know it is hard to believe it but I didnt make it up guys. Its on their webbside. And to top it off it ends with: "It's a great time to Purchase a HUD Home with FHA financing." And you thought only the realtors were complete idiots. Surprise!
I remember reading someone predicting things would turn worse in the UK much more quickly because they have no equivalent of the FHA, Freddie or Fannie to pick up the slack.
Pretty amazing how just a month or two ago people were saying how different their market is, not at all like the U.S...
P_Rank, this is the question that tries Manhattan RE agents' souls... fewer and fewer foreigners are going to be ok with catching the U.S.'s falling knives if their own houses are in disarray
"In a soccer match of 90 minutes, we think we are in the 80th minute of decline of the dollar against most of the major currencies," Darst said on "Worldwide Exchange."
BB's failure to raise 25bp was an own goal, if Trichet slots in the PK on Thursday by raising 25 the rout will be on and Eur will blow thru USD 1.60.
UK is a mess; sterling has been crushed v EUR(why it still levitates v USD still amazes me) Manufacturing is contracting, CRE is a mess and Residential is in a world of hurt.
if Trichet slots in the PK on Thursday by raising 25 the rout will be on and Eur will blow thru USD 1.60.
I wonder why the analysts are calling for the dollar's decline to end. We are not even at 1.60 which, if i recall correctly was where we were at last time.
The only reason they think the dollar will increase in value is if they see an end to the mortgage mess. Most everyone else raised their rates already or are going to, how can their currency not appreciate against the USD. MSM is sprouting nonsense about the dollar.
45 minute until Hammer Time!
(the reverse of conjure clock. Hammer Time is the tip off to the biggest 2nd half recovery known to man!!!! as CR says, another day another record!)
Well, the woman in my carpool told us that this all in line with the prophecies of Ezekial. Russia and Iraq v. US an Israel with the gametime being very, very soon. She also mentioned something about the Chinese marching somewhere over dry land...
She also believes in the Rapture. I asked her if I see levitating out of the car and I grab her foot and hang on does that mean I get to go too? Or will god flick me off like a booger?
I know some of you find this amusing. Myself, I find people like that scare the crap out of me. I bet for every "born again" in the US
there an asault rifle under the bed just waiting for the day when god brings the hammer down.
The UK, Spain, Ireland. I remember reading a post here and doing research on it. Barclays and USB were very big into car loans and credit cards besides the usual mortgages. I was somewhat surprised at the numbers.
I wonder why the analysts are calling for the dollar's decline to end.
because the Euro and Pound will eventually fall in value as well.
it's not that the US dollar will appreciate, it's that other currencies will depreciate.
Pound is set to fall for sure.
Eurozone I also think will fall. Their economy is very divergent right now. Some locales showing price inflation, others price deflation. this will be a test, as Germany's Economy goes up against Spain and Italy's.
it's not that the US dollar will appreciate, it's that other currencies will depreciate.
That's the general perception. But somehow i think the uncooperative FED will prove otherwise.
I maintain that the banks are worse off than they look. Now am thinking unless some more bailouts are in store, the FED may even lower rates.
Bank of America's credit protection costs rose on Tuesday ahead of its acquisition of battered mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Corp , according to data from Phoenix Partners Group.
CIT Group Inc. said Tuesday it will sell its home lending business to Lone Star Funds for $1.5 billion in cash, plus $4.4 billion of assumed debt, in a move to exit the troubled mortgage arena and focus on its commercial finance operations.
Its good to see one of the CNBC Worldwide anchors front CNBC this morning - they usually talk straight - none of this "lets find a silver living" crap - if the Shanghai is down 3% then,its down a whopping 3.6% - none of this ".. but bear in mind that.." or ".. but it recovered after having been down as MUCH as 3.7%.."
I've emailed Squawk on the Street in the past telling them their title music should be the Monty Python version of "Always look on the bright side" - sadly, no response.
ECB has one simple mandate: maintain price stability.
(pronounced Trishay) just saw a modest increase in retail sales in Germany (MoM 1.3%, YoY .7%) and a drop in DE unemployment (7.9% to 7.8%)
In the present neighborhood, (EUR=$1.5794), ANY significant news even can push through $1.60 in minutes.
(EURUSD typically moves 100/150/200 pips in a 24 hour span, and CAN move 300/350 pips under more volatile market situations.)
The problem with "intervention scenarios" is that the FOREX is a 24hour 3 Trillion market. Even major players can't have lasting effects because of the sheer size. Sure, jinks up or jinks down, but Mr.Market rules the night. (Unbeknownst to most, I suspect, is that most of the FOREX actvity occurs on London time (our night.)
Bernanke had the opportunity to slow or reverse (marginally) the Dollar's slide by raising modestly last week. A 25bp bump could well have brought the EUR down to maybe $1.50, just on enthusiasm. Call it: sound monetary policy expectations.
IMO, he caved. Trichet isn't nearly so gutless.
Making a prediction is always risky. (SEE:Seb), but, as I probably have no weight here anyway, and am modestly involved in the FOREX, I'll suggest that ECB will raise 25bp on Thursday. (That raise alone would be enough to put $1.60 in the rearview mirror... just like $130 oil.)
Anonymous, I was sweating with you on Friday, knowing this won't be a race straight down to the bottom, but a few rallys. What was April,May, and part of June. I saw the 02 Jan support, but I know this time its different, so I'm still in, but buying gas and oil slowly.
Only 27 visitors? What is wrong with you people.
tyaresun, not much is happening. Heck, the Shanghai composite is only off 2% right now ...
Best Wishes.
"Only 27 visitors? What is wrong with you people."
Imminent collapse doesn't seem to be on order for tomorrow. If it was, there'd be 400 people here like there was on the eve of what was widely presumed to be the Bear collapse, which many believed would precipitate the Great Deleveraging. IIRC, relatively few here were predicting that the bailout was coming the way it did.
Which means, if you believe in contrary indicators, all hell will break loose in the markets tomorrow (today)...
I can already feel it in my bones, weeeeeeeeee!!!!
People are resting up for the Indymac implosion is my guess.
"People are resting up for the Indymac implosion is my guess."
You can't watch disaster and horror movies every night. Sometimes you have to take a break and watch baseball, or read a book.
Not me. I'm resting up for the Downey implosion.
WOW- we HAVE NOT seen numbers like that in mortagage volume in the US.
This is an insane percentage decline in new UK mortgages yoy, whereas the US drop in loans has been much more modest (and I keep wondering why).
Are UK lenders smelling the coffee (er... tea) faster than US lenders even though their bust has lagged ours? Or is it the buyers that are shying away more?
Seems that the US lenders couldn't be much worse with Wachovia and WaMu JUST NOW shutting down their Neg Am products.
Bollocks!
See? Scum mentioned Indymac, and already the visitors are increasing in number.
As long as you're talking about records, here's one to make a scary bedtime story: credit is contracting at the highest rate on record.
http://web-xp2a-pws.ntrs.com/content//media/attachment/data/econ_research/0806/document/dd063008.pdf
Contrary indicator is visitors... VIX still low, and they can't do anything till Friday... wait that's a holiday. So Thursday?
And we can't even have fireworks with our beer in California:^(
Ha,
Just wait until funny fannie and fatty freddie go tits up, then you'll see a bit of cliff-diving for US mortgage originations. Or the government will step and and that will be the last straw that will send treasury yields and mortgages rates straight to the moon!!! Wooohooo!!!
Thanks mp-
I've been trying to find that info for the last week, wondering what the Fed could/would do. People kept talking about liquidity draining, but that's a south Texas sized sink hole...
kinda hope they're saving their ammo for a head shot. Remember you can only kill zombies with a head shot.
Yippee! Let UK prices drop by 60%. Maybe then people will be able to buy without sending their grandkids into debt. And maybe estate agents won't all be driving Maseratis by then.
Joeblo, here are the credit numbers, just for you:
St. Louis Fed: Series: TOTBKCR, Bank Credit of All Commercial Banks
I hope you enjoy studying liquidity traps, because the US economy is well on its way to one.
TED spread dropped a few bips. WOOT! Party like it's 1999!!!!
On second thought...
Thanks, mp.... I LOVE studying liquidity traps.. I was a mere boy freshman when I first understood liquidity traps had something to do with 1929.
The epiphany opened my eyes to economics, and other dismal sciences.
It's just amazing watching this happen in real time. This reminds me to move a lot more money into my international bond funds tomorrow, too.
Now if only Trichet will do his job.
@SuperElite...
Thanks- yes of course it's FNM and FRE holding up the US mortgage originations plus the revised FHA program is going nuts.
Lovely subsidization... how many sheep to shear.
Yeesh.
Broad Says U.S. Economy in Worst Recession Since World War II
Broad Says Economy in Worst Slump Since World War II (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
More news coming into MSM now.
Yoss-
I'm in pretty heavy on the international bond funds too, but mostly to diversify out of cash and a largish lump of Ibonds I bought when they were coming out.
Do you really think that the international treasuries are going to stay safe for a year or so, or are you figuring to rotate out quickly, if/when deflation starts to hit?
Well, I'm certainly not saying the economy is in a liquidity trap, but it's dancing around the precipice.
There are several simmering economic debacles that could tip it over, also several pending exogenous items, any one of which could possibly do it.
Hmmm..Shanghai down 3% now. Looks like 2k would be capitulation target.
Anyone see intervention in the USD anytime soon?
Curious to listen to views.
"Hmmm..Shanghai down 3% now."
Now, aren't you glad you didn't listen to Jim Rogers?
mp writes:
Now, aren't you glad you didn't listen to Jim Rogers?
He's into commodities. And what stocks he holds would probably be for the long term, heard him say that in one of his talks..lol.
But yes now isn't a good time to go in.
"Anyone see intervention in the USD anytime soon?"
By whom?
mp writes:
By whom?
By anyone but am thinking G7.
Space aliens?
The only meaningful way Bernanke can intervene at this point is to raise rates, and we all know what will happen to the US economy if he does that. If the G7 does it, it would probably be viewed as a meaningless act of mercy.
Well, looks like no capitulation today. Elsewhere we have capitulation on a daily basis. Proves the resilience of the markets
I hope, for Bernanke's sake, that he's got a thick prayer rug, otherwise he's going to wear out his knees.
US House Prices Forecast 2008-2010
US House Prices Forecast 2008-2010 :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting Free Website
US House Prices Forecast Summary - Nominal US House Prices are forecast to fall by 30% from the Mid 2006 peak by the end of 2010, or a further 11% on the decline of 19% to date. US house prices will continue falling in real-terms even if a low in nominal house prices is made by mid 2010.
As per this analysis there is no sign of a BUY trigger occurring within the next 2 1/2 years.
I'm seeing asset price deflation on a daily basis now. Not only houses, but automobiles, machine tools, airplanes.
Interestingly, though, prices on toy haulers seem to be holding their own, but I expect them to fall... eventually.
It's all just a matter of time and patience.
I figure it's time to be proactive. Which one should I register?
blokewalkaway.com
mightbloodywellwalkaway.com
youwalkawaycheerio.co.uk
iambloodywellfacingforeclosure.co.uk
ellogeneralwalkaway.com
I like #4. It has an air of defiance.
Bank of America to Acquire Countrywide for 37% Less
July 1 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of America Corp. will buy Countrywide Financial Corp., the home lender battered by the collapse of the subprime mortgage market, for about $2.5 billion, 37 percent less than originally planned.
Yah know, this is all starting to sound like War Of The Worlds or some kinda disaster movie, maybe even a world war, with news reel footage of the battles. The carnage of the CEOs is at hand and woe to the might elf kings that doomed!
I am with mp, #4
although
pintofbeeriamoutofhere.co.uk
is still available.
We've sure seen a lot of records recently.
getting a bit broken doncha think?
From the Broad article:
``The problem is, people don't believe prices have bottomed out,'' he said.
Since when is it a "problem" when people are in touch with reality?
``You've got to induce people to buy houses'' with federal policies including tax incentives.
How about the only way to induce people to buy that will actually work - LOWER PRICES.
I think in the UK a first time buyer now needs a 10% deposit to buy which is more or less beyond most peoples abilities. Similar difficulties for other mortgages. I read that Northern Rock are pricing rates to ensure most people who can, will move to other lenders. Rates in the UK have gone up pretty rapidly in the last few months generally.
My feeling at the moment is that rates are going to go very much higher.
I returned to UK in 2006 to find house prices had doubled in five years and tripled in ten. Numerous "friends" told me to get a mortgage quick because prices were going to the moon. The first mortgage broker I contacted--he'd never met me or heard of me before--offered me £500,000 ($1,000,000) no questions asked. No interest in credit history or even if I was currently employed! And by God I almost took him up on it. But something didn't feel right, and I have always been cautious because my father was a bankrupt. And now look. I'm no longer being told by all and sundry that UK housing "never goes down," and estate agents are returning my calls (I'm not buying, I just love to mess them around, they're all twerps). For a while there I thought the laws of economics had been repealed, but I am delighted to report that they have not and are about to take revenge on all the greedy, arrogant, undeserving, complacent, ill-informed British. It's about blinkin' time, squire.
futures crumbling and only 18 on here. Maybe today is the day we take a big dive?
Europe comes crashing down....
Asia takes its usual 1-2% slide, no big deal. But Europe is getting savaged, down 3-4%.
Holy smokes! Dow pre-market down 113.
Looks like trouble for Suzie's cat.
USD weakness accelerating, but am not convinces there's capitulation yet.
Lets wait for the numbers at 10. I do feel we would close negative though.
May I suggest an old employee's favorite phrase...
ayeijustcantbebothered.com
On topic of futures market, yes it's bad for those who tried to catch that Ginsu, but either this is a crash (~20%+ decline in market in 1 day) or this is the culmination of an unsustainable downtrend.
Yes I'm pissed I sold my double short Proshares last Friday; I figure the DOW is about 200-300 points from its lower trend channel that should offer serious support.
Anonymouse writes:
200-300 points from its lower trend channel that should offer serious support.
Not if Trichet can do anything about it in a few days.
Dollar is still too strong to have any adverse effects.
Gold would be a good buy today for gamblers.
Housing inventory is declining and housing prices are rising in Sacramento, according to the Sac. Assc. of Realtors.
2nr half recovery begins!!!!1!
Short poundy!
BTW, not too shabbby:
$142.56
I prefer:
Short Sterly!
From the Torygraph: "Unless they have got a substantial deposit of at least 10pc of the value of the property first time buyers cant get a mortgage."
Well, one good thing from this mess is that the definition of substantial deposit will be a bit north of 10%.
Love this blog - I'm an American married and residing in Euroland on spouse's Euro-pension. Can anyone here advise me what to do with cash saved in US banks? Keep rolling the CDs over is my plan (all within FDIC limits), in case I have to move back home in old age.
Move it to Europe with you while you can.
even with the terrible exchange rate?
Maybe I should have added "small hometown banks in flyover country" - probably not holding subprime, etc. mortgages, but what do I know.
Thanks.
Short strokes!
No, wait. I've lost the plot...
Metonym writes:
Can anyone here advise me what to do with cash saved in US banks?
Move it out! Look at commodities and precious metals.
Uh-oh.. peter schiff is on CNBC talking about gold standard... time to buy dollars!
The median house price in the UK is about Usd 370,000, compared to 210k in the US, yet median household income in the UK is about 20% lower than in the US. Admittedly, London totally distorts any measure of the UK housing market, but the FSA has told UK banks to stress test their portfolios assuming a 40% decline in housing prices. The UK economy is about to have a very hard landing in my opinion.
Turbo writes:
The UK economy is about to have a very hard landing in my opinion.
Blame Beckham and the English football team. They sure missed out on the euro payday to stimulate the economy.
broken records maybe, but it's all the same song.
For the benefit of Mr. Kite...
George Soros thinks the UK is going to have a worst time than the US. Peter Schiff in barron's thinks the US is in trouble.
Some more headlines :-
Nearly Game Over for Dollar Decline: Morgan Stanley
Currencies: Game Nearly Over for Dollar Decline, Says Morgan Stanley - CNBC
MS says the decline is coming to an end. Bring on Trichet!
So what does this mean w.r.t. wealthy foreigners buying "discounted" American real estate?
Will the British be out of this game?
Will the Asians buy in Britain instead of U.S.?
It looks like the brits need an "FHA".
No DP, $1000 cash back at closing and their new slogan is "Buy HUD with FHA". I know it is hard to believe it but I didnt make it up guys. Its on their webbside. And to top it off it ends with: "It's a great time to Purchase a HUD Home with FHA financing." And you thought only the realtors were complete idiots. Surprise!
I remember reading someone predicting things would turn worse in the UK much more quickly because they have no equivalent of the FHA, Freddie or Fannie to pick up the slack.
Pretty amazing how just a month or two ago people were saying how different their market is, not at all like the U.S...
P_Rank, this is the question that tries Manhattan RE agents' souls... fewer and fewer foreigners are going to be ok with catching the U.S.'s falling knives if their own houses are in disarray
CR is starting to sound like a broken record.
Bada bing!
Hmm gold is spiking.. wonder why.
"In a soccer match of 90 minutes, we think we are in the 80th minute of decline of the dollar against most of the major currencies," Darst said on "Worldwide Exchange."
BB's failure to raise 25bp was an own goal, if Trichet slots in the PK on Thursday by raising 25 the rout will be on and Eur will blow thru USD 1.60.
UK is a mess; sterling has been crushed v EUR(why it still levitates v USD still amazes me) Manufacturing is contracting, CRE is a mess and Residential is in a world of hurt.
Tricket? Trishay? Help me out because all I do is read.
Alec writes:
if Trichet slots in the PK on Thursday by raising 25 the rout will be on and Eur will blow thru USD 1.60.
I wonder why the analysts are calling for the dollar's decline to end. We are not even at 1.60 which, if i recall correctly was where we were at last time.
The only reason they think the dollar will increase in value is if they see an end to the mortgage mess. Most everyone else raised their rates already or are going to, how can their currency not appreciate against the USD. MSM is sprouting nonsense about the dollar.
Oh, great GoogaMooga, can't you hear me talking to you.
The Knights Who Say "Ni!?"
45 minute until Hammer Time!
(the reverse of conjure clock. Hammer Time is the tip off to the biggest 2nd half recovery known to man!!!! as CR says, another day another record!)
Well, the woman in my carpool told us that this all in line with the prophecies of Ezekial. Russia and Iraq v. US an Israel with the gametime being very, very soon. She also mentioned something about the Chinese marching somewhere over dry land...
She also believes in the Rapture. I asked her if I see levitating out of the car and I grab her foot and hang on does that mean I get to go too? Or will god flick me off like a booger?
I know some of you find this amusing. Myself, I find people like that scare the crap out of me. I bet for every "born again" in the US
there an asault rifle under the bed just waiting for the day when god brings the hammer down.
The UK, Spain, Ireland. I remember reading a post here and doing research on it. Barclays and USB were very big into car loans and credit cards besides the usual mortgages. I was somewhat surprised at the numbers.
Todays prediction: Dow down 276 at closing.
I wonder why the analysts are calling for the dollar's decline to end.
because the Euro and Pound will eventually fall in value as well.
it's not that the US dollar will appreciate, it's that other currencies will depreciate.
Pound is set to fall for sure.
Eurozone I also think will fall. Their economy is very divergent right now. Some locales showing price inflation, others price deflation. this will be a test, as Germany's Economy goes up against Spain and Italy's.
"To Infinity....and Beyond!"
B. Lightyear
The UK mortgage market looks like this innocent bunny :-
YouTube - Holy Grail - Killer Bunny
Run away!!
Yearning To Learn writes:
it's not that the US dollar will appreciate, it's that other currencies will depreciate.
That's the general perception. But somehow i think the uncooperative FED will prove otherwise.
I maintain that the banks are worse off than they look. Now am thinking unless some more bailouts are in store, the FED may even lower rates.
Bank of America's credit protection costs rose on Tuesday ahead of its acquisition of battered mortgage lender Countrywide Financial Corp , according to data from Phoenix Partners Group.
Bank of America's credit protection costs rise
| Reuters
Ya think?
Looks like the IRS wants a look into your Swiss bank account!
Feds seek Swiss bank records – The CNN Wire - CNN.com Blogs
CIT Group Inc. said Tuesday it will sell its home lending business to Lone Star Funds for $1.5 billion in cash, plus $4.4 billion of assumed debt, in a move to exit the troubled mortgage arena and focus on its commercial finance operations.
Full story
OT -
Its good to see one of the CNBC Worldwide anchors front CNBC this morning - they usually talk straight - none of this "lets find a silver living" crap - if the Shanghai is down 3% then,its down a whopping 3.6% - none of this ".. but bear in mind that.." or ".. but it recovered after having been down as MUCH as 3.7%.."
I've emailed Squawk on the Street in the past telling them their title music should be the Monty Python version of "Always look on the bright side" - sadly, no response.
-K
OT:
Residential Loan Deliquencies rising sharply DLQTDLQT.
Graph that along with U.S. Unemployment figures, and you'll see just where we're headin'...
sk writes:
the Monty Python version of "Always look on the bright side" -
Always look on the bright side of life
Oops, forgot the unemployment graph USURTOT.
Is this some end of quarter deal with the Fed Funds overnight rate?
Federal Funds Data
Since ac doesn't appear to be here right now, I'll just point out that the yen appears to be moving again.
ECB has one simple mandate: maintain price stability.
(pronounced Trishay) just saw a modest increase in retail sales in Germany (MoM 1.3%, YoY .7%) and a drop in DE unemployment (7.9% to 7.8%)
In the present neighborhood, (EUR=$1.5794), ANY significant news even can push through $1.60 in minutes.
(EURUSD typically moves 100/150/200 pips in a 24 hour span, and CAN move 300/350 pips under more volatile market situations.)
The problem with "intervention scenarios" is that the FOREX is a 24hour 3 Trillion market. Even major players can't have lasting effects because of the sheer size. Sure, jinks up or jinks down, but Mr.Market rules the night. (Unbeknownst to most, I suspect, is that most of the FOREX actvity occurs on London time (our night.)
Bernanke had the opportunity to slow or reverse (marginally) the Dollar's slide by raising modestly last week. A 25bp bump could well have brought the EUR down to maybe $1.50, just on enthusiasm. Call it: sound monetary policy expectations.
IMO, he caved. Trichet isn't nearly so gutless.
Making a prediction is always risky. (SEE:Seb), but, as I probably have no weight here anyway, and am modestly involved in the FOREX, I'll suggest that ECB will raise 25bp on Thursday. (That raise alone would be enough to put $1.60 in the rearview mirror... just like $130 oil.)
Anonymous Bosch,
Agreed. Intervention will hold it at 1.60, but any ECB hike will blow thru that stop sign.
No hike it'll trade back down to 1.53-1.55
Anonymous Bosch writes:
Trichet isn't nearly so gutless.
I'll suggest that ECB will raise 25bp on Thursday.
I agree with you and am banking on him to do his duty. $1.58 is crucial now, see if that holds.
Anonymous, I was sweating with you on Friday, knowing this won't be a race straight down to the bottom, but a few rallys. What was April,May, and part of June. I saw the 02 Jan support, but I know this time its different, so I'm still in, but buying gas and oil slowly.