Manhattan Office Vacancy Rates Hit 2 Year High
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Tue, 07/01/2008 - 10:29am (62 comments)
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Sorry, OT: But this is priceless!
http://consumerist.com/tag/jpmorgan-chase/?i=5021117&t=jpmorgan-chase-accidentally-breaks-into-your-house-and-steals-everything-you-own>JPMorgan Chase Accidentally Breaks Into Your House And Steals Everything You Own
Anyone know what % of NYC financial employees expected to be laid off due to credit crisis/bear market? TIA
Gah...hope this fixes that link...
Sorry, OT: But this is priceless!
JPMorgan Chase Accidentally Breaks Into Your House And Steals Everything You Own
I'll reiterate that I believe shorting the commercial market via SRS is a pretty low risk move over the next year. I'm sure there will be ups and downs, of course.
Vornado is one of the largest holdings of IYR (around 4%). If NY and DC office goes down, they go down. Boston Properties as well. Actually its hard to find a company held by IYR that has a bright future if CRE tanks.
I'd be happy to hear facts that might make me change my mind. so far I can't find any.
During the last downturn, many companies started subleasing space - and that really hit the office market hard in Manhattan. From what I've heard that isn't happening yet this time
All in due time, all in due time.
come on seb... tell us how you loaded up at the lows today.
Dunno if this has been posted already. From WSJ:
The jump in oil and food prices has pushed some developing countries to the "tipping point," putting governments in the difficult position of balancing the interests of the poor and economic growth, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday.
"If food prices rise further and oil prices just stay the same, then some governments will be unable to feed people and at the same time to maintain the stability of their economy," Dominique Strauss-Kahn said at a news conference to discuss a new IMF report on the impact on developing countries of a doubling in commodity prices since 2006.
While advanced countries are also dealing with the rising price pressures, the challenges are much greater for developing countries, which had been making strides in recent years in improving economic stability and reducing poverty, he said.
"The picture is a picture of a world in crisis," said Mr. Strauss-Kahn, noting that global financial markets are still enmeshed in the turmoil that began in the U.S. subprime mortgage market. Policy responses are needed from governments as well as the international community, he said.
Rising Food, Oil Prices Pose Challenges for Developing World - WSJ.com
Lots of large, ground-floor retail space sits empty for months on end in midtown Manhattan. While firms move downtown or to outer boros where the bargains are, or, like chase, downsize.
Prices have not come down a lot, but they will. Things are in standoff mode.
is that new bofa building in midtown stilll being finished, or is it already occupied
Calling all knife catchers get'em while they're hot.
Democrats in the U.S. Congress are gearing up to pass a second election-year economic stimulus package, but unlike the $152 billion measure that passed in February, they are not counting on getting the support of President George W. Bush.
Democrats in Congress mull new economic stimulus
| Reuters
Short Bucky!
DOW is in positive territory, all the bad news are priced in!!
is that new bofa building in midtown stilll being finished, or is it already occupied
They're building several new bank buildings where I am.
It's kind of like a bank and hotel building binge has replaced the house building binge.
Seems like a funny time to be building banks.
Also a lot of existing banks seem to be expanding or upgrading their facilities.
If such legislation advances and it follows the formula of emergency measures enacted this year, the new stimulus would add to already steep deficits that worry fiscal conservatives.
LOL. What fiscal conservatives?
12th Percentile
I'm with you. The index comp looks like this
Simon Property Group Inc. 7.13%
ProLogis 5.18%
Vornado Realty Trust 4.21%
Public Storage Inc.
3.91%
Equity Residential 3.86%
Boston Properties Inc. 3.76%
General Growth Properties Inc. 3.02%
Kimco Realty Corp. 2.95%
Host Hotels & Resorts Inc. 2.85%
AvalonBay Communities Inc. 2.55%
Simon has some mall properties in my area that always seem to have higher tenant turnover than others.
Any more of this and even I might begin to believe in the PPT. As it is you gotta worry about a head fake going into the long weekend. 3 days is now a very long time to be stuck in USD denominated equities.
"the new stimulus would add to already steep deficits"
Right down the Japanese rabbit hole.
The bank construction will hurt BofA pretty bad; they provide the financing but only take up a few floors while the rest goes to developers, lawyers and whatnot connected to RE(literally vertically integrated product lines.)
The occupancy rates will be murder at first but the survivors will start moving in there(if they want financing) and out of old space.
CRE in Manhattan will be a rolling nightmare for a couple of years.
"the new stimulus would add to already steep deficits"
Right down the Japanese rabbit hole.
The real danger is that these deficits could cost the dollar it's reserve currency status.
If they scare the FCBs into a legitimate dollar bailout (hasn't happened yet).
Then you've got your depression signed, sealed, and delivered.
And there is that macklowe skyscraper deal (not sure where it is at this point but there was buzz that they were getting 20-30 pct off the 3 bldgs and that would really spook the mkt).
Also there is this - less foreign interest in the mkt:
Foreign Investors Pull Back on N.Y.C. Real Estate - DealBook Blog - NYTimes.com
Chrysler reports 36% (!) decline in sales . . .
yeowch
Ben P writes:
Chrysler reports 36% (!) decline in sales . . .
Is that better than expected?
/snark
(OT) Sebastian'sWorld said: "come on seb... tell us how you loaded up at the lows today."
Patience.
I'm not going to crumb the play by trading prematurely because you're anxious.
With a little over 600 new 52-week lows on the NYSE we're awfully close, though.
Sebastia
I've been watching the major US indexes the last few trading days and it sure seems odd that right about 2 PM the indexes start moving up regardless...shouldn't somebody be arbing this out?
GM... savior of the Dow. Puh-lease.
When you're this oversold, you can get some sharp, sharp rallies.
What I'm doing: covering, on the trading strategy of We Never Let 20 Sticks Get Away.
Aloha,
This is a battle between Cushman & Wakefield & Colliers ABR !
Re: The Colliers ABR report had a slightly different take from the CBRE report, finding the Midtown class A vacancy rate improving from 11.1 percent in October to 10.8 percent in November. Part of the reason for the improvement was a major block of space that was pulled from availability in the Grand Central submarket, among other factors, the report said.
The vacancy rate for Manhattan Class A space generally increased in June to its highest percentage since July 2006, according to the Colliers ABR report. By the end of June, there were 16,093,407 square feet of available Class A space in Manhattan, up from 12,558,158 in June of last year.
Vacancy rates for Midtown South and for Downtown were also up annually and monthly. In Midtown South, the all-important Class B rate (that's the dominant type of office space in that submarket) was up to 10.4 percent in June, from 7.1 percent in June 2007.
OT -- things like this strike me as plausible, given the swings in oil prices and the S&P 500, i.e., gamesmanship by the I-banks:
Peak Oil Debunked: 355. BANKS HOARD OIL IN STORAGE TANKS
I saw this refernced in a thread over at Market Ticker.
The Dow volume chart is getting pretty interesting and the VIX is climbing again(but not at August or November numbers yet).
OT -- yep, times are getting tough for the venture capital crowd:
'...In the second quarter of this year not a single company backed by venture capitalists has gone public. It is the first time that has happened since 1978...'
Welcome to the Season of the Bear | On the Public Offerings Front, It's All Quiet for the Quarter - NY Times
We will see tough times here in La Jolla as venture capital dries up. Venture capital funds lots of money-losing biotechs and IT companies, and that money flows to lawyers, accountants, PR firms, office space, private schools, car washes, Ferrari and Bugatti dealerships, etc.
OT
The U.S. state of Florida hopes to negotiate a settlement with the Bank of America (BAC.N: Quote, Profile, Research) for what the state called the deceptive lending practices of its newly acquired mortgage unit Countrywide Financial Corp., the state attorney general said on Tuesday.
Thanks for the link on the oil,jg...that looks to be the smoking gun I've been looking for.
Not surprising that VC's aren't getting any IPO's out...biotech/pharma haven't come up with any discoveries recently and IT is pretty much a mature industry in my view.
Perhaps auto sales substantially but I would not be at all surprised if beer sales are up.
Financials!! long jpm!!
boooyaaaahahahahahaha
"What fiscal conservatives?"
Barak Hussein Obama, the southside of Chicago community activist ? Remember - That resume highlight and his book are the sum total of his accomplishments.
Do I win a prize ?
U.S. construction spending tumbled in May, brought down once again by the sickly housing sector. Total spending fell by 0.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.085 trillion, the Commerce Department said
"Then you've got your depression signed, sealed, and delivered."
Bank on it.
Sebastian writes:
(OT) Sebastian'sWorld said: "come on seb... tell us how you loaded up at the lows today."
Patience.
I'm not going to crumb the play by trading prematurely because you're anxious.
Pullleeeeze. You were bullish 20% ago which needs a 25% increase to break even. Deal schemeel, we are talking credibility.
Chakib Kahlil, president of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), said today at the World Petroleum Congress in Madrid, "We need to be assured of what to expect for future demand...There is a lot of uncertainty when it comes to decision-making about investing in upstream and downstream." He also commented that the price of oil is "too high"; however, he noted that prices will probably continue to $170. Additionally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said oil supplies may not be able to keep up with the demand through the next 5 years because if Israel bombs Iran, it would shrink the Mideast supplies.
2: audi Oil Project Brings Skepticism to the Surface
KHURAIS OIL FIELD JOURNAL; Saudi Oil Project Brings Skepticism to the Surface - NY Times
We are sometimes criticized for not being more forthcoming about our oil, said Amin Nasser, senior vice president for production and exploration at Aramco, the national oil company, during a slide show presentation in a staff compound here. But our actions have been louder than our words, despite all the criticism and the cynics.
Trading a thin market is ballsy, but overall volume was better today than last week.
Reveral? Dead Cat Bounce
o ways.... this cat has nine 19 lives
were thru 17
boooyaaaaaa
Barak Hussein Obama, the southside of Chicago community activist ? Remember - That resume highlight and his book are the sum total of his accomplishments.
Do I win a prize ?
No prize for you because you forgot his other middle names: Barack Hussein Napoleon Pol Pot Obama.
Question: Do you think that Western governments should lower taxes on fuels to reduce the impact of the energy crisis on consumers?
Answer: Yes, taxes are the result of the policy business in 1973 to reduce dependence on oil. Today, the goal is reached. The proof is in gas, better fuel efficiency or the use of clean energies. Consumer countries get four times more profits than those of OPEC during periods like this one. In addition they require producers to raise without limit their production capacity, which requires investment in facilities whose operations will be reduced or stopped. It is irrational. That is why we must find a payment mechanism to facilitate the producers develop their production capacities.
interview M. Chakib Khelil au quotidien espagnol "EL MUNDO"
That was some mighty impressive knife-catching, right there. Whooie.
While balancing on a tight-rope, too.
Blindfolded. With a full glass of Koolaid perched on the bill of a baseball cap.
Fed provides one hell of a net, though.
Should be some impressive fireworks later this week.
ac said: "LOL. What fiscal conservatives?"
I heard there was one living in the deep woods of Northern Maine.
It's just a rumor though.
I heard there was one living in the deep woods of Northern Maine.
Sorry, the rumor's not true. I moved to Boston a few years ago.
Sheik Ahmed Showers writes:
Question: Do you think that Western governments should lower taxes on fuels to reduce the impact of the energy crisis on consumers?
mock turtle answers
no fuel taxes should not be lowered. actually all oil importing countries should come to an emergency agreement to raise taxes on oil 2 cents for every 1 cent increase in the price of oil thus placing a drag on the futures growth in the price of oil.
Drew said: "I moved to Boston a few years ago."
Into the maw of the beast, eh?
Rob Dawg said: "Pullleeeeze. You were bullish 20% ago which needs a 25% increase to break even. Deal schemeel, we are talking credibility."
Agreed. And since you're a fair-minded person, I await your post lambasting everyone who's been predicting the Phantom Recession for 3+ quarters.
(Soon to be 4+ quarters.)
Sebastia
Into the maw of the beast, eh?
No kidding...I miss my $350 a month rent!
Do I win a prize ?
The rest of us having to clean up after your bankrupt ideology should be prize enough.
600 fewer starbucks should help commercial real estate.
There once was an episode of the Simpsons where every store in the mall was a Starbucks. Probably a good sign a company has overexpanded when you are being ridiculed on the simpsons.
Sebastian writes:
"Agreed. And since you're a fair-minded person, I await your post lambasting everyone who's been predicting the Phantom Recession for 3+ quarters.:)"
if you use inflation adjusted numbers you will see we have been in a recession for several months.
barely | 07.01.08 - 3:53 pm writes:
Barak Hussein Obama, the southside of Chicago community activist ? Remember - That resume highlight and his book are the sum total of his accomplishments.
You know, I agree with a great many of your sentiments, but this partisan hacking you insist on rings a little hollow - just remember, the GOP's boy takes his cues from Phil Gramm - arguably the single individual most responsible for the current mess. UBS Warburg has paid him well for his contribution to their welfare.
In short - put a cork in it on the partisan warfare.
ac: The jump in oil and food prices has pushed some developing countries to the "tipping point," putting governments in the difficult position of balancing the interests of the poor and economic growth, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday.
I had posted awhile ago that this exact mechanism was my major concern for the destabilization leading to another world war. I would expect Pakistan to become much more troublesome after this decision:
Pakistan scales down fuel, food subsidies to reduce deficit: PM
AFP: Pakistan scales down fuel, food subsidies to reduce deficit: PM
Scott - I'll repeat Hillary's request - List of meaningful accomplishments, please ?
All this bad economic news can't be too
terrible, the Dow recovered from 100+
points down to a positive value. Anybody
really buying this or is it more crooked
shit by the Govt. to lead us on. Wasn't
enough getting many to buy at the tops only to lose later, they just work harder at keeping the lies alive. Have a
good trip down, all you buyers and holders!!
Obama's meaningful accomplishments?
Passing a interrogation videotape law over the (initial) opposition of the governor, both statehouses, and the police.
First Senator to propose a law to halt the mortgage fraud epidemic (2006).
First Senator to propose bird flu countermeasures.
Amended the ethics bill with the most substantial lobbyist reform since Watergate.
Provided a method for citizens to find out online about all government expenditures that aren't classified.
Got auditing for Katrina expenditures through the Senate (although the Republicans wrote it out in committee).
Co-wrote and passed legislation to get nuclear weapons and anti-air missles away from terrorists and the black market.
Most successful presidential nomination fundraiser ever.
Won 2 nomination contests (Senate and President) against essentially impossible odds.
I admit he wasn't shot down and captured by the enemy. Do you consider that a major limitation?
"I'll reiterate that I believe shorting the commercial market via SRS is a pretty low risk move over the next year. I'm sure there will be ups and downs, of course.
Vornado is one of the largest holdings of IYR (around 4%). If NY and DC office goes down, they go down. Boston Properties as well. Actually its hard to find a company held by IYR that has a bright future if CRE tanks.
I'd be happy to hear facts that might make me change my mind. so far I can't find any."
CRE is looking pale. A few fellas in my office cater to national CRE ownership and my bestest friend from college has been working with the Carr's for years. All reports re CRE are bad bad bad. Bad.
I'm short GGP. Overextended.
Sub-leasing isn't going to be an issue this time around, because nobody is going to be looking to rent space... The real issue here is that, outside of layoffs, a lot of the big banks are cutting costs under the radar by relocating operations and other non-front-office departments to cheaper areas of the country.
I have a friend who is losing her job later this summer because she refused to relocate with her department to Salt Lake City, along with about 75% of her department. So, even though they are not technically layoffs (they are officially "quitting"), the office space will go empty and the people will become unemployed - and without unemployment benefits, to boot.