"What are the chances demand destruction shows strong enough tomorrow that oil sells off by $10+, and the markets rise by 400 points"
Possible, at these levels. I would love it. Great entry point opportunity. 3-day weekends were popular with the FDIC for bank closings in the '80s as I recall. Looking for a black Monday.
The financial sector has finally decoupled from the indices. Maybe the idiotic refrain "We won't see recovery without a rally in financials" will be put to rest.
Loans are being called in by the local bank where I am for farmers with excellent credit which have been lifelong customers. A Lot of pissed off people here in Podunk.
Calculations by market analysts of the "option-adjusted spread" on mortgages suggest that the cost of these benefits conferred by fixed-rate mortgages can range from 0.5 percent to 1.2 percent, raising homeowners' annual after-tax mortgage payments by several thousand dollars. Indeed, recent research within the Federal Reserve suggests that many homeowners might have saved tens of thousands of dollars had they held adjustable-rate mortgages rather than fixed-rate mortgages during the past decade, though this would not have been the case, of course, had interest rates trended sharply upward.
If the Congressional bailout passes, and banks have to assume 15% of losses.
A house that was purchased for $900,000 with a Countrywide loan now has a market value of $500,000. Would the current occupant/mortgage holder have to agree to refinance the house for the bailout to take effect?
So basically, the bank loses $135,000, and Congress gives Countrywide $265,000 via FHA, and the current occupant/mortgage holder takes out a new loan for $500,000?
Or does Congress give countrywide $765,000 via FHA or whatever and now FHA has to sell the home for whatever they can get?
How does this work in reality?
I can't see any good way for it to work. What am I missing?
So now you've got to big against China for real necessities! Good thing it's only lunchtime here tg, or I might've aspirated my laphroaig reading that link. Unlike oil, we only have Scotland-- no alternative origins come close.
But $60 mil to $90 mil in 5 years sounds a bit exaggerated. My buddies and I are the only major scotch drinkers I know in China. But then again...
You must be a vodka drinker. No, nothing close. Especially not the remarkably poor knock offs you see in the Chinese market if you're not careful checking the print quality on the labels.
Best I can do is RMB 230 for 750 ml Glenfiddich at Carrefour (about $34), and I'm prepared to back up the truck having read that news.
Late 80's/early 90's in Taiwan, lots of people had one unopened fancy bottle of scotch displayed prominently in their front room.
It was like a status symbol - nobody drank it, they couldn't stand the taste.
If you were the guest of somebody you wanted to impress, you'd grab your bottle off the shelf and bring it to their home as a gift.
Then you'd wait for someone to gift you with a bottle again at your home, which would go straight back up for display til you gave it to the next person in line.
Either the Chinese have finally acquired a taste for scotch, or, there are just more of them playing the "trade the scotch bottle" game.
If it's the latter, the price will plummet once everyone in the mainland Chinese middle class has one bottle of scotch on the shelf in the living room.
Also we are approaching Peak Bourbon, Gin, Vodka, Rum, and, the new approaching tsunami, Peak Beer. Stop in for a Pick a Pay Loan to pay for the future.
The court, frustrated with the inability to resolve the issue and the repeated failure of the attorney and servicer to appear in court when ordered, directed the U.S. Marshals to bring the attorney from across the country so he could explain his actions to the court.
I know it's only June but it cannot get any better than this.
Waiting, as it happens I was just in Taipei yesterday, and the Bottle Totem is still powerful, but it's usually XO. I hope you are right about the aversion to uisge baugh, but locals often chug it with Coke. Crikey.
I remember peak tequila. Agave price was on the moon. Some friends went home and planted like crazy. One guy even got a permit to export the plants to the U.S. and plant them. Of course they lost their asses when the price collapsed, but the price of Tequila never went back down.
I expect the Scottish may be wise to keep supply tight.
when the actor w c fields ("ah yes my little chickadee" big black top hat,bulbous nose...played opposite mae west, "hey big big why dont ya come up and see me sometime"...
anyway, it is said that W C Fields, when he learned of the stock market crash in 1929, immediately called up his local friendly liquor distributor and had
A TRUCK LOAD OF GIN DELIVERED TO HIS HOME.
in the end, and probably along the way...it did him little good...a man who didnt know how to say "when"
Not really, waiting, mainlanders got other status symbols to flaunt to consider bottles. Being in Taipei after the pre-Olympian pomp of Beijing made me love the little place more than ever. There was a quaint charm about Taiwan that has not faded too much.
Mainlanders are more likely to kill a bottle or two at a club or kalaoke and think nothing of it.
indymacdaddy, we passed peak caviar long ago if you're talking about the real stuff. No, I do think a case of scotch belongs in everyone's bunker. Will be better than bullion to many.
mp, I agree on the single malts. But I think they can turn out a better blended product when cost is a consideration, and it looks like it soon will be for me about now.
Good thing Tanta won't be reading this OT stuff until I'm in bed....
When the Japanese struck Pearl Harbor, Fields brought a hand truck to a liquor store and bought 6 cases of gin. When a friend saw him returning, he asked why he bought 6 cases. Fields replied. "I think it's going to be a short war."
Thanks for that link, Kiwi. I will have to try a kiwi dram next time in Godzone-- best to have a diversified source, and nothing says diversification like the antipodes!
Met an interesting single malt from the Isle of Arran last week, "Robert Burns"...BIL is a private pilot, one of his buds gave it to him - goes well with an Avo!
I don't know about nationwide, but I know around here builders were being financed with zero equity in the homes they were building. Which explains how small builders were able to grow so fast, and these small banks are far more exposed than most would assume.
foist
Can you say, "We are only in the second inning?" I knew you could.
And yet the market rallies today because the bad news out of GM wasn't as bad as the bar Ford had set. Or was it the oscillator?
What are the chances demand destruction shows strong enough tomorrow that oil sells off by $10+, and the markets rise by 400 points?
Wow, even for a seasoned bubble watcher, that chart is amazing. The growth of defaults on condo and construction loans is nearly vertical!
"What are the chances demand destruction shows strong enough tomorrow that oil sells off by $10+, and the markets rise by 400 points"
Possible, at these levels. I would love it. Great entry point opportunity. 3-day weekends were popular with the FDIC for bank closings in the '80s as I recall. Looking for a black Monday.
The financial sector has finally decoupled from the indices. Maybe the idiotic refrain "We won't see recovery without a rally in financials" will be put to rest.
This is all:
"lost on the wings of the ages"
"What are the chances demand destruction shows strong enough tomorrow that oil sells off by $10+"
I don't foresee demand destruction on a July 4th weekend.
"The growth of defaults on condo and construction loans is nearly vertical!"
"We only need customers and renters to be able to catch up, just takes time to pave the lots and for the paint to dry. Give us another week please. "
Loans are being called in by the local bank where I am for farmers with excellent credit which have been lifelong customers. A Lot of pissed off people here in Podunk.
hoocoodanowed??
"The federal government is being too reactionary," says a bank executive whose construction loans are 47% delinquent.
Yeh, just give us a chance to work with Bob the local Builder. I drink beer with the guy and he's good for it.
I've been wondering how builders could carry vacant homes for so long.
we say cliff diving on the way down
the first graph looks like "scaling El Capitan"
NEWS SECTION "O" for OBVIOUS
Car sales down because nobody's buying them.
Peak scotch?
Scotland faces short whiskey supply - UPI.com
Alan Greenspan: ARMed and dangerous. - By Daniel Gross - Slate Magazine
Calculations by market analysts of the "option-adjusted spread" on mortgages suggest that the cost of these benefits conferred by fixed-rate mortgages can range from 0.5 percent to 1.2 percent, raising homeowners' annual after-tax mortgage payments by several thousand dollars. Indeed, recent research within the Federal Reserve suggests that many homeowners might have saved tens of thousands of dollars had they held adjustable-rate mortgages rather than fixed-rate mortgages during the past decade, though this would not have been the case, of course, had interest rates trended sharply upward.
Question:
If the Congressional bailout passes, and banks have to assume 15% of losses.
A house that was purchased for $900,000 with a Countrywide loan now has a market value of $500,000. Would the current occupant/mortgage holder have to agree to refinance the house for the bailout to take effect?
So basically, the bank loses $135,000, and Congress gives Countrywide $265,000 via FHA, and the current occupant/mortgage holder takes out a new loan for $500,000?
Or does Congress give countrywide $765,000 via FHA or whatever and now FHA has to sell the home for whatever they can get?
How does this work in reality?
I can't see any good way for it to work. What am I missing?
tg- "Peak Scotch?"
Damned Asians.
Lets get rid of this chicken shit home building loan defaults, so infrastructure and community projects can begin.
Peak scotch?
So now you've got to big against China for real necessities! Good thing it's only lunchtime here tg, or I might've aspirated my laphroaig reading that link. Unlike oil, we only have Scotland-- no alternative origins come close.
But $60 mil to $90 mil in 5 years sounds a bit exaggerated. My buddies and I are the only major scotch drinkers I know in China. But then again...
should'a been "bid". and yes, we have no scotch for lunch today...
Is Lefty's Liquors closed?
"The long awaited CRE slump is here, and the bank failures will surely follow."
The stock failures are arriving a little sooner:
Market Observation - Tim W. Wood 12.04.2009
Peak Scotch:
synthetic alternatives?
synthetic alternatives?
To hell with that.
synthetic alternatives?
You must be a vodka drinker. No, nothing close. Especially not the remarkably poor knock offs you see in the Chinese market if you're not careful checking the print quality on the labels.
Best I can do is RMB 230 for 750 ml Glenfiddich at Carrefour (about $34), and I'm prepared to back up the truck having read that news.
Two points here:
A) We are approaching Peak Scotch, so buy two in our party section
B) We never close, even if the lights inside are turned off, use the back door.
Late 80's/early 90's in Taiwan, lots of people had one unopened fancy bottle of scotch displayed prominently in their front room.
It was like a status symbol - nobody drank it, they couldn't stand the taste.
If you were the guest of somebody you wanted to impress, you'd grab your bottle off the shelf and bring it to their home as a gift.
Then you'd wait for someone to gift you with a bottle again at your home, which would go straight back up for display til you gave it to the next person in line.
Either the Chinese have finally acquired a taste for scotch, or, there are just more of them playing the "trade the scotch bottle" game.
If it's the latter, the price will plummet once everyone in the mainland Chinese middle class has one bottle of scotch on the shelf in the living room.
Also we are approaching Peak Bourbon, Gin, Vodka, Rum, and, the new approaching tsunami, Peak Beer. Stop in for a Pick a Pay Loan to pay for the future.
Peak Beer, my god. I didn't know.
Vader's favorite quote of the year.
TESTIMONY OF Debra iller
The court, frustrated with the inability to resolve the issue and the repeated failure of the attorney and servicer to appear in court when ordered, directed the U.S. Marshals to bring the attorney from across the country so he could explain his actions to the court.
I know it's only June but it cannot get any better than this.
Vader, your link is sick.
Peak scotch I could care less about, peak beer would be brutal.
my bad, the url is messed up.
Testimony of Debra Miller
mp
Thanks for noticing
Thought of hoarding scotch yesterday. Behind the curve again. How long does caviar keep?
Waiting, as it happens I was just in Taipei yesterday, and the Bottle Totem is still powerful, but it's usually XO. I hope you are right about the aversion to uisge baugh, but locals often chug it with Coke. Crikey.
I remember peak tequila. Agave price was on the moon. Some friends went home and planted like crazy. One guy even got a permit to export the plants to the U.S. and plant them. Of course they lost their asses when the price collapsed, but the price of Tequila never went back down.
I expect the Scottish may be wise to keep supply tight.
Kou Jie, so are they playing "pass the fancy foreign bottle" in China yet?
"Thought of hoarding scotch yesterday."
Scrooge McDuck and Conjure Bag approve.
from great depression days...
when the actor w c fields ("ah yes my little chickadee" big black top hat,bulbous nose...played opposite mae west, "hey big big why dont ya come up and see me sometime"...
anyway, it is said that W C Fields, when he learned of the stock market crash in 1929, immediately called up his local friendly liquor distributor and had
A TRUCK LOAD OF GIN DELIVERED TO HIS HOME.
in the end, and probably along the way...it did him little good...a man who didnt know how to say "when"
Not really, waiting, mainlanders got other status symbols to flaunt to consider bottles. Being in Taipei after the pre-Olympian pomp of Beijing made me love the little place more than ever. There was a quaint charm about Taiwan that has not faded too much.
Mainlanders are more likely to kill a bottle or two at a club or kalaoke and think nothing of it.
personally im partial to rye but scotch will do in a pinch
The Scots made a marvelous contribution to alcoholism when they invented single malts but, IMO, really screwed up when they started blending.
indymacdaddy, we passed peak caviar long ago if you're talking about the real stuff. No, I do think a case of scotch belongs in everyone's bunker. Will be better than bullion to many.
the blends are not the same as the single malts are they. ...
but if you are a scotch lover and its dewars or no scotch at all...
one could do much worse!
mp, I agree on the single malts. But I think they can turn out a better blended product when cost is a consideration, and it looks like it soon will be for me about now.
Good thing Tanta won't be reading this OT stuff until I'm in bed....
hoocoodanowed??
from wikipedia
When the Japanese struck Pearl Harbor, Fields brought a hand truck to a liquor store and bought 6 cases of gin. When a friend saw him returning, he asked why he bought 6 cases. Fields replied. "I think it's going to be a short war."
Kou Jie writes:
"I do think a case of scotch belongs in everyone's bunker."
My choice Lammerlaw
Lammerlaw : Whisky Magazine : Whiskies of the World listed by Brand
Well, with all this talk about scotch, it's time for Conjure and I to raise our glasses to George Smith.
Later y'all.
Conjure says, "Have a nice day."
My favorite single malt is Laphroiag: peety, smokey, hint of asphalt...
CR- Damn! I could have sworn I saw, "a SHORTABLE list of banks" the first time I read that.
On Topic: Peak Whiskey
Ahhh... now the Korean billboard offers for leveraged purchasing of Johnny Walker Blue make sense.
Why any responsible business would loan at 85% TLV something that could be drunk in an evening is still odd. It must be the damn Yen carry!
"Thought of hoarding scotch yesterday."
Jack Danial is the sip of the future!!!!!!!!
Thanks for that link, Kiwi. I will have to try a kiwi dram next time in Godzone-- best to have a diversified source, and nothing says diversification like the antipodes!
If you must hoard, make it Oban.
Moin from Germany,
it wouldn´t surprise me if we will similar "structures" very soon.....
Ghost Tower Bangkok Style
The video is worth watching.....
Wake up, you booze hounds!
Wake up, you booze hounds!
Hey, could you keep the noise and lights down? I still have a headache!
mock turtle - no need to use euphemisms. Fields called his bootlegger. Probably had the best one in NYC, too.
From one of his routines, "Who brings a pie to a golf course? A pint, yes! A pie, never!
Best OT thread EVER!
Met an interesting single malt from the Isle of Arran last week, "Robert Burns"...BIL is a private pilot, one of his buds gave it to him - goes well with an Avo!
"LONDON - Construction activity in Britain declined in June at the fastest rate in 11 years, a supply institute said Wednesday..."
I don't know about nationwide, but I know around here builders were being financed with zero equity in the homes they were building. Which explains how small builders were able to grow so fast, and these small banks are far more exposed than most would assume.
what part of the country is that nio-rio?