"This really is a spiral, isn't it!
On and on like a glacier... painfully slow but inevitable."
I prefer the metaphor of a ship taking on water and listing to port. The list may increase slowly for hours if the damage is not repaired or "contained." Until the ship suddenly capsizes in one smooth, inexorable motion.
Remember the moment in Titanic where the ship's architect informs them that the ship is a goner? Unlikely you'll ever see a prominent DC or Fed official make such a pronouncement.
I'd just a quick search on Hotels.com for rooms from 7/4-7/6. Seem to be plenty of rooms. Some in the mid $100's a night. That doesn't happen often in Vegas. Hard Rock is listing in the high $200 and up.
I'd really like to know what traffic is like there this weekend.
Misean, all the casinos are trying to fill rooms like mad. I have seen the Wynn and Palazzo go for around $150. Those rooms are 700sqft and built to get at least $300/night.
What numbskulls bought bonds with these kinds of options? They basically guarantee that if the company goes down, your investment won't make it out alive.
Breaking news:
Just in time for the real estate bubble to bust in Wisconsin, the WI Supreme Court has eliminated intentional misrepresentation as a caus of action for real estate transactions.
Thomas Andrews: The pumps will buy you time, but minutes only. From this moment on, no matter what we do, she will founder.
Ismay: But she can't sink!
Thomas Andrews: She is made of debt, sir. I assure you, she can. And she will. It is a mathematical certainty.
I'm a small time poker player (like 200-500 buy-in NL) and I got a free 2 night stay at the Wynn earlier this Spring. It wasn't crowded and I heard from other paying guests that they were paying discounted rates... like 50% off the $400 list rates.
"I'd just a quick search on Hotels.com for rooms from 7/4-7/6. Seem to be plenty of rooms. Some in the mid $100's a night. That doesn't happen often in Vegas. Hard Rock is listing in the high $200 and up."
I dunno, are holiday weekends really big weekends in Vegas? You don't usually get big conventions then.
Any industry tied to vacation/ tourism looks pretty vulnerable about now. Especially those catering to a lower or middle class demographic.
On the bright side, I'm much more likely to buy time at a discounted Hawaiian resort than I am to buy a discounted SUV. If discounted airfare is included, that is.
on the yahoo MGM board (I got that put and doubled my cash in 3 days, and closed it) one regular punter reported spooky empty rows of tables idle dealers standing to attention and a ghost town in the bellagio poker rooms..
Casinos now nudging the lv newspapers to start talking about discounts quietly available on rooms
Common... you're being too harsh on them. Our own government has a long and illustrious history of financing its debt with more debt, and that's working out great for America, California, Vallejo... oh wait, no, well, 2/3 ain't bad so far...
Seems to me that every entity with weak credit and a PIK deal at ultra-low 2003-2007 spreads should take the neg-am option.
Even if you don't need the cash for your business, why not borrow more money at 6 or 7% and double down by buying your own equity, buying equity from management, or buying equity in similar companies at distressed prices?
Its not like the private equity people have much skin in the game in these types of deals. Usually the first thing that happens after a deal is done is the PE investors and management are paid one or more gigantic "special dividends" that typically amount to more than the original amount invested.
great comments thanks, ministry, yeah they must have taken everything out of HET, Harrah's, Harrah's, my god casino's are cash flow central and they are paying with PIK provision, they should be the last to do this?? wow
"What numbskulls bought bonds with these kinds of options?"
good thought, i figure it was the same that bought those CDO's on 100% financed Cali houses,
PIK came around before 1989, peak of LBO markets, they are a sure sign that the bubble peak is near, remember that for 2028
Regarding Vegas, my wife and I aren't big-time gamblers. We live in FL and it's a long trek to the desert; we only go once every couple of years. Anyway, the Venetian sent us an offer letter a few days ago for 2-4 complimentary nights at the hotel, plus a $50 restaurant credit, plus a $50 match play coupon, plus a 2-for-1 spa admission. Oh and they'd throw in a one-category room upgrade. If we didn't already have other things going on this summer (and if the airfare wasn't so darn expensive), that would pretty much be an offer you can't refuse!
"More seriously, I'd be a touch less certain that he's always going to be wrong and you're always going to be right."
It's not a question of certainty. Anyone with an ounce of common sense and experience knows the future cannot be predicted with certainty.
It's a question of shame -- or the certifiable lack thereof.
When someone is wrong (and wrong consistently over a significant length of time) and: 1) doesn't admit it, and 2) goes on the attack against those who got it right -- well, that my friend, is the hallmark of a psyche that knows no shame.
Not that there's anything wrong with shamelessness. I don't want to offend anyone out there!
Wait, wait, no, I've got it all wrong. I'm the one who knows no shame. By using Seb's own words, I'm the mistaken one, I'm the one who's stuck in the vortex of a blog echo chamber, I'm the one who can't see the forest for the trees -- I'm sorry, I'm sorry, Oh forgive me for pointing out that Seb said:
The Economy Will Be Strong Come This Spring
Home Buying Will Leap Forward
Because even though he was wrong, someday he'll be right and we'll all be sorry.
Here, let me give it a try:
-- By Christmas the economy will be STRONG
-- By the end of the year new and existing home sales will by UP
Now, come December, I'll shout down anyone who challenges me on my predictions, regardless of the facts at the time.
Mike-in-FL:
You hit the nail on the head.
Gasoline prices are deterring Californians from going and airline prices are deterring those from Florida and elsewhere in the US from going. And most airlines have announced that they are cutting back on flights to destinations that are heavily frequented by leisure travellers, as they tend to pay less than business travellers. So LV is extremely nervous that they are going to be one of the cities with serious cutbacks in the number of flights in and out of the city.
And high rollers in Asia have plenty of options now - Macau and soon to be Singapore are taking a bigger slice. But I hear that Macau growth is now slowing rapidly.
Went to Vegas in January. Stayed at the Luxor for $100.00 a night. Not a bad deal. The room itself was nice. The rest of Vegas, however, was a completely overpriced ripoff. They try and nickel and dime you for EVERYTHING in Vegas. There is no cheap/free transportation along the main strip connecting all the Casinos. How is it possible they didn't have a free tram connecting everything?
Anyways, the Vegas that used to exist before the corporate bean counters ruined it allowed you to get comped drinks, hell sometimes even comped food merely for playing 25 cent video poker. Now, they require a minimum balance and a certain amount bet before you can get a free watered down drink. The bartenders are annoying as hell in that regard. I remember sitting down at a completely empty bar in the Luxor while waiting for my wife so that I could watch 5 minutes of the NFL playoffs. The bartender came up to me and said "you have to be either gambling or order a drink to sit here." I looked around at the completely empty bar and responded "Nah, thats alright, I will just stand next to the chair." Looks like Vegas will have to get over itself and stop charging people for breathing air before it returns to its former glory. I heard conventions are getting pissed that they jack up the room rates. If they start losing conventions, you can expect the hotels to go bankrupt soon thereafter.
People actually buy these bonds!? They have Ponzi written all over them. It never ceases to amaze me what a 5% premium over AAA debt will entice people to buy. Morons all.
I fell out of my chair laughing when I first heard about "covenant lite" PIK loans.I saw a place in oakland sell for 600 a sq ft,in an area I would not drive through in an armored car on sunday,and THAT was a better deal.
Dang, that's what my gubment does wit its debt! We have $10T outstanding, and grow $1.67B per day by issuing more debt. Anyone seen the dollar lately? The U.S. is bankrupt, and it's my fault, Clinton's fault, daddy's fault, Reagan's fault, Carter's fault, Ford's fault, and finally NIXON'S fault. That son of a bitch took us off the gold standard and let the debt machine out of the bag!!! Burn in hell asshole.
PonziPonziPonzi, we love you, you giant pot of money!
Wonderful. Read those bond contracts before you buy, folks!
Holy Mother Of God (HMOG)!
This really is a spiral, isn't it!
On and on like a glacier... painfully slow but inevitable.
It will of course be rated AAA harrahs is to big to fail.
I'm sure there's a sheik or two that wouldn't mind owning harrah's...
I would imagine these guys will double down and try agai
"This really is a spiral, isn't it!
On and on like a glacier... painfully slow but inevitable."
I prefer the metaphor of a ship taking on water and listing to port. The list may increase slowly for hours if the damage is not repaired or "contained." Until the ship suddenly capsizes in one smooth, inexorable motion.
Very eloquent Bob.
My analogy is perhaps less so.
I often compare our situation to the that mountain climber game that used to be on the Price is Right.
Please consult the link and see how many parallels you can draw between it and our overall economic "headwinds".
Cliff Hanger Wiki
Casey Serin tried to put together a casino deal.
Hard to avoid "headwinds" with so many heads so far up so many asses.
Private equity sure gutted the crap out of Harrahs. I wonder what HET would be at if it was not bought out at 90/share.
Remember the moment in Titanic where the ship's architect informs them that the ship is a goner? Unlikely you'll ever see a prominent DC or Fed official make such a pronouncement.
What a coincidence. My credit card company called me today demanding I pay at least the minimum amount due.
So, instead of writing a check, I wrote IOU Interest Due in the Amount of $35 on a piece of paper and mailed it in.
I'd just a quick search on Hotels.com for rooms from 7/4-7/6. Seem to be plenty of rooms. Some in the mid $100's a night. That doesn't happen often in Vegas. Hard Rock is listing in the high $200 and up.
I'd really like to know what traffic is like there this weekend.
Cheers,
Misean, all the casinos are trying to fill rooms like mad. I have seen the Wynn and Palazzo go for around $150. Those rooms are 700sqft and built to get at least $300/night.
Check out the low prices being offered on rooms these days
Las Vegas Strip Deals - SlickDeals.net Forums
Ponzi economy. Kevin Philips
YouTube - How to tell the truth about Bad Money part 2 of 2
Isn't that like using your HELOC to pay your mortgage?
I think we know how that works out.
Plenty of hotel properties in the various REIT's in IYR.
What numbskulls bought bonds with these kinds of options? They basically guarantee that if the company goes down, your investment won't make it out alive.
Breaking news:
Just in time for the real estate bubble to bust in Wisconsin, the WI Supreme Court has eliminated intentional misrepresentation as a caus of action for real estate transactions.
http://www.wicourts.gov/sc/opinion/DisplayDocument.pdf?content=pdf&seqNo=33271
Don't worry, the bonds have all kinds of protective covenants. Oh wait, no they don't. Ooops.
Bob Dobbs, right!
Thomas Andrews: The pumps will buy you time, but minutes only. From this moment on, no matter what we do, she will founder.
Ismay: But she can't sink!
Thomas Andrews: She is made of debt, sir. I assure you, she can. And she will. It is a mathematical certainty.
"What numbskulls bought bonds with these kinds of options?"
Probably some Cayman's entity called "Hannah's Entertainment." Or Chewco.
Sebastian then:
"Myself, I think next spring is going to see a resurgence of home-buying caused by a stronger economy and lower interest rates."
Sebastian
Sebastian | 08.30.07 - 11:01 am
Sebastian now (previous thread):
"You can't get reasoned, "actionable" information out of a situation like that . . . ."
Question: How wrong will Seb have to be before he just disappears?
I'm a small time poker player (like 200-500 buy-in NL) and I got a free 2 night stay at the Wynn earlier this Spring. It wasn't crowded and I heard from other paying guests that they were paying discounted rates... like 50% off the $400 list rates.
Nice hotel definitely.
"I'd just a quick search on Hotels.com for rooms from 7/4-7/6. Seem to be plenty of rooms. Some in the mid $100's a night. That doesn't happen often in Vegas. Hard Rock is listing in the high $200 and up."
I dunno, are holiday weekends really big weekends in Vegas? You don't usually get big conventions then.
Any industry tied to vacation/ tourism looks pretty vulnerable about now. Especially those catering to a lower or middle class demographic.
On the bright side, I'm much more likely to buy time at a discounted Hawaiian resort than I am to buy a discounted SUV. If discounted airfare is included, that is.
can i get the PIK Chocolate chips
Mt, you did'nt even try that hard, did ya!
Bob D: I dunno, are holiday weekends really big weekends in Vegas?
Huge. One a major holiday it seems like half of California shows up. Based on the current room rates, that isn't happening this weekend.
Question: Question: How wrong will Seb have to be before he just disappears?
Answer: How many years has Fleck had his ass handed to him? Did he ever disappear?
More seriously, I'd be a touch less certain that he's always going to be wrong and you're always going to be right.
on the yahoo MGM board (I got that put and doubled my cash in 3 days, and closed it) one regular punter reported spooky empty rows of tables idle dealers standing to attention and a ghost town in the bellagio poker rooms..
Casinos now nudging the lv newspapers to start talking about discounts quietly available on rooms
Common... you're being too harsh on them. Our own government has a long and illustrious history of financing its debt with more debt, and that's working out great for America, California, Vallejo... oh wait, no, well, 2/3 ain't bad so far...
"the WI Supreme Court has eliminated intentional misrepresentation as a caus of action for real estate transactions"
Did you read the decision? That's not the holding.
Seems to me that every entity with weak credit and a PIK deal at ultra-low 2003-2007 spreads should take the neg-am option.
Even if you don't need the cash for your business, why not borrow more money at 6 or 7% and double down by buying your own equity, buying equity from management, or buying equity in similar companies at distressed prices?
Its not like the private equity people have much skin in the game in these types of deals. Usually the first thing that happens after a deal is done is the PE investors and management are paid one or more gigantic "special dividends" that typically amount to more than the original amount invested.
So when did the casino close on the Titanic? None lived to tell, they went down with the ship.
great comments thanks, ministry, yeah they must have taken everything out of HET, Harrah's, Harrah's, my god casino's are cash flow central and they are paying with PIK provision, they should be the last to do this?? wow
"What numbskulls bought bonds with these kinds of options?"
good thought, i figure it was the same that bought those CDO's on 100% financed Cali houses,
PIK came around before 1989, peak of LBO markets, they are a sure sign that the bubble peak is near, remember that for 2028
Exchange-traded GM bonds now are yielding 15.5%.
NYSE:XGM - Google Finance Search
GM, if I am not mistaken, is by a large margin the largest non-government/non-bank debtor in the world.
Google shows $186 billion in total liabilities (not just bonds.)
Regarding Vegas, my wife and I aren't big-time gamblers. We live in FL and it's a long trek to the desert; we only go once every couple of years. Anyway, the Venetian sent us an offer letter a few days ago for 2-4 complimentary nights at the hotel, plus a $50 restaurant credit, plus a $50 match play coupon, plus a 2-for-1 spa admission. Oh and they'd throw in a one-category room upgrade. If we didn't already have other things going on this summer (and if the airfare wasn't so darn expensive), that would pretty much be an offer you can't refuse!
"More seriously, I'd be a touch less certain that he's always going to be wrong and you're always going to be right."
It's not a question of certainty. Anyone with an ounce of common sense and experience knows the future cannot be predicted with certainty.
It's a question of shame -- or the certifiable lack thereof.
When someone is wrong (and wrong consistently over a significant length of time) and: 1) doesn't admit it, and 2) goes on the attack against those who got it right -- well, that my friend, is the hallmark of a psyche that knows no shame.
Not that there's anything wrong with shamelessness. I don't want to offend anyone out there!
Wait, wait, no, I've got it all wrong. I'm the one who knows no shame. By using Seb's own words, I'm the mistaken one, I'm the one who's stuck in the vortex of a blog echo chamber, I'm the one who can't see the forest for the trees -- I'm sorry, I'm sorry, Oh forgive me for pointing out that Seb said:
Because even though he was wrong, someday he'll be right and we'll all be sorry.
Here, let me give it a try:
-- By Christmas the economy will be STRONG
-- By the end of the year new and existing home sales will by UP
Now, come December, I'll shout down anyone who challenges me on my predictions, regardless of the facts at the time.
Mike-in-FL:
You hit the nail on the head.
Gasoline prices are deterring Californians from going and airline prices are deterring those from Florida and elsewhere in the US from going. And most airlines have announced that they are cutting back on flights to destinations that are heavily frequented by leisure travellers, as they tend to pay less than business travellers. So LV is extremely nervous that they are going to be one of the cities with serious cutbacks in the number of flights in and out of the city.
And high rollers in Asia have plenty of options now - Macau and soon to be Singapore are taking a bigger slice. But I hear that Macau growth is now slowing rapidly.
Went to Vegas in January. Stayed at the Luxor for $100.00 a night. Not a bad deal. The room itself was nice. The rest of Vegas, however, was a completely overpriced ripoff. They try and nickel and dime you for EVERYTHING in Vegas. There is no cheap/free transportation along the main strip connecting all the Casinos. How is it possible they didn't have a free tram connecting everything?
Anyways, the Vegas that used to exist before the corporate bean counters ruined it allowed you to get comped drinks, hell sometimes even comped food merely for playing 25 cent video poker. Now, they require a minimum balance and a certain amount bet before you can get a free watered down drink. The bartenders are annoying as hell in that regard. I remember sitting down at a completely empty bar in the Luxor while waiting for my wife so that I could watch 5 minutes of the NFL playoffs. The bartender came up to me and said "you have to be either gambling or order a drink to sit here." I looked around at the completely empty bar and responded "Nah, thats alright, I will just stand next to the chair." Looks like Vegas will have to get over itself and stop charging people for breathing air before it returns to its former glory. I heard conventions are getting pissed that they jack up the room rates. If they start losing conventions, you can expect the hotels to go bankrupt soon thereafter.
great , then look for a new airline 'bimbo air' flying the tramp stamp crowd to macau.
People actually buy these bonds!? They have Ponzi written all over them. It never ceases to amaze me what a 5% premium over AAA debt will entice people to buy. Morons all.
I fell out of my chair laughing when I first heard about "covenant lite" PIK loans.I saw a place in oakland sell for 600 a sq ft,in an area I would not drive through in an armored car on sunday,and THAT was a better deal.
Dang, that's what my gubment does wit its debt! We have $10T outstanding, and grow $1.67B per day by issuing more debt. Anyone seen the dollar lately? The U.S. is bankrupt, and it's my fault, Clinton's fault, daddy's fault, Reagan's fault, Carter's fault, Ford's fault, and finally NIXON'S fault. That son of a bitch took us off the gold standard and let the debt machine out of the bag!!! Burn in hell asshole.