Ghost Towns in the Inland Empire
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Wed, 07/02/2008 - 2:10pm (204 comments)
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What I love best is that the construction continues! Talk about C&D loans waiting to fail! If ever there was a time to cut and run, this would be it. Where the hell are the bankers and why would they allow this nonsense to continue? Cramer was right, 'doze the whole place.
Yeah. It's pretty bad out there right now. I was just in Riverside this morning. The for lease signs are everywhere as well.
Cheers,
the entire development appeared to be vacant -- with the exception of crews working on new construction, it was a ghost town."
Were they really building? Or harvesting copper and lumber? I wonder what it feels like going to work building another empty building in a wasteland of empty buildings?
Spooky!
Re: The Weekly Chart shows the Dow has now violated the neck line of a large head-and-shoulders pattern that has developed over the last 18 months. This pattern actually predicts a target of about at least 10,000, which is quite a ways down.
There's a row of about 20 single story houses going in a few blocks away from me in western Riverside county.
the Dow has now violated the neck line of a large head-and-shoulders pattern
So we're at the bust line? Guess some investors are gonna cop a cheap feel.
"Corona, the median sales price fell nearly $200,000 from May 2007 to May 2008, dropping from $565,000 to $375,000."
People are paying $375K for Corona still! Friggin' Corona! Best be in a gated community with Blackwater providing security.
Knife catchers, I tells ya!
Cheers,
OK it's not the weekend yet, but here's a theme song for this thread:
YouTube -
Look at the continuing condo/apt development in downtown San Diego as well. Incredible. From my window, I can see four more towers going up right now. I can see three existing towers which are less than 80% sold. And there are signs/initial construction for a few more towers. Several, several more towers have already been approved but have not broken ground, and probably never will.
I got a job in San Bernardino in Spring 2003, looked around the area for a starter house but couldn't find anything under 350K that wasn't in a gang infested neighborhood or out in the middle of nowhere (e.g. Perris). Even at half price the entire area was poor value at the time. I got the hell out fast, the SoCal housing bubble saved me from myself
I often wonder if some entrepreneur will figure out a clever rebranding for developments like this. E.g. throw up some solar panels and wind turbines and market them to retiring boomers as a "green" retirement alternative.
"outlook remains gloomy," "the pace of new problems has slowed somewhat."
Yep. The engineer on the train just saw your car sitting on the tracks and hit the breaks. Things like that usually work out well.
Cheers,
CRE in this area will get destroyed! Any REIT's that concentrated in the IE??
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Peripheral Visionary said...
I think it is entirely possible that we will see a return to the ghost towns of yore. Probably not in San Diego or Los Angeles proper, but some of the more remote communities. Densely built cookie-cutter housing that is light years from nowhere, makes absolutely no sense.
What some people do not understand is that the record high vacancy rates in some of the hardest-hit communities are not going to take a long time coming down, they are not coming down, period. Banks renting bulldozers to plow homes under before we are done with all of this.
Way to go PV.
Bush Tours America to Survey Damage
Even less subtle than usual Onion fare.
Corona is starting to come down faster. Just north of Corona, (above Norco where they move the cows out to put up at least 20 developments) you can get a 4000 sq ft. house for $300,000 now (less than 3 yr. old house).
Down south along the 15 Murieta almost as low.
Crispy: No company I know of is a pure bet on IE real estate, but some companies with significant exposure are DSL, FED, and RWT. Good look finding any shares available at your broker to short these companies, but you can still buy puts/sell calls.
I have articles about both FED and RWT here:
Greg Weston -- Seeking Alpha
FirstFed is a entirely CA, and of course a lot of the boom was concentrated in the IE, central valley, eastern OC and SD counties. Sales volumes during the boom were simply lower in urban coastal areas in CA where prices are down 10-25% rather than 40-70%.
"Densely built cookie-cutter housing that is light years from nowhere, makes absolutely no sense."
The hope is always there that businesses will relocate to the Inland Empire from the coast, and Riverside County is promoting this.
Builders should start paying renters to watch their homes!
Builders should start paying renters to watch their homes!
Excuse me but Perris is not the "middle of nowhere", it is halfway to Temecula and sits in what used to be very nice farm country.
Reading the LA Times article, I must have skipped over the part that mentioned where these "ghost towns" were. And why would you want homeowners in the subdivision before you are done building it? They get in the way and slow down the workers.
By the way, that was a nice view of some mountain (Box Springs perhaps?) in the smoggy background.
If nobody ever lived in the houses, where would the ghosts come from? And, the huge oversupply of homes will only make CA more attractive for employers after housing prices collapse. Bad now, future 2012 not so bad.
IE is a really beautiful place to live and work as long as you don't have to commute into LA regularly. The problem is there is just no shortage of land in the desert, and little to stop prices from falling to the cost of building.
other jim,
"And why would you want homeowners in the subdivision before you are done building it?"
You're not serious...right?
Cheers,
Elvis,
"Bad now, future 2012 not so bad."
Not so. The heat really does a number on these things. They were built to be cooled.
Cheers,
"E.g. throw up some solar panels and wind turbines and market them to retiring boomers as a "green" retirement alternative."
Could be but that ain;t gonna stop them from being sold for less the 20% on the dollr from the peak first.
One commenter on the LAT thread noted, "This is the housing equivalent of Detroit cranking out huge SUV's that people no longer want."
I like the comparison... the common thread being the dependence of each on cheap energy.
Hey, Perris is getting commuter rail service to L.A. in 2011. At least then the ghosts will be able to take the train.
My sister bought in Corona back in 2003. They'd be underwater if they hadn't rolled their equity gains from 2002 into this "move-up" purchase.
The flatland stretching between Corona/Norco and Ontario --god what a wasteland.
Since that Inland Empire has such fertile soil, it won't take long for the displaced crops to reestablish themselves. Think of it. A town of bandos with all the grapes, almonds, oranges, etc...they can eat. Almost paradise except for the meth, violence, and odor factor.
sp's are up.75!!!!
"Misean writes:
Elvis,
"Bad now, future 2012 not so bad."
Not so. The heat really does a number on these things. They were built to be cooled."
So, a house in the middle of nowhere, near no economic base, that needs the AC running five or six months out of the year in a time of rising energy costs. Who's going to want it?
They should have built with hay bales. Or adobe-oid substances.
This is all speculative for LA commuters but the ones with an ounce of sense knew all along not to buy that far out! I can't believe $375K is still holding - I find that suspect. These communities will never have value. Like another said, built for cooling, think of the cost to cool all those vaulted ceilings!
Ghost Towns Need Ghost banks!!
Deutsche Bank dismissed fears of a profit warning that had weighed on its share price in recent days, declaring that the German bank should report a profitable quarter for the three months to the end of June. The news came as Peter Kurer, chairman of UBS, told a Swiss television channel that the bank would not need additional capital following its $15bn rights issue.
It's not ghost town, it's "the zomburbs".
they should plow the houses under and let the cows back.
Lots of very bearish economic statistics are coming out now that both June and Q2 are over.
Leveraged Loan Prices Fall as Banks Sell Assets, Defaults Climb - Bloomberg.com
Unfortunately in new construction these days they are probably not even putting in copper pipes. Nothing of value to strip out other than some wiring.
Gasoline prices aren't the only way that these homes will be devalued by high energy prices.
Those big inland-empire boxes will have high utility costs. Naturally, there isn't a single solar water heater on those roofs, even though they would be cashflow positive from day 1 when installed during construction and financed with the mortgage.
Actually in some of those developements the cows are still near enough to smell.
OT:
Blockbuster Withdraws Proposal To Acquire Circuit City
So, a house in the middle of nowhere, near no economic base, that needs the AC running five or six months out of the year in a time of rising energy costs. Who's going to want it? Bob Dobbs
C'mon, Bob, there are plenty of prisons in the area. There is your economic base. I imagine the idea of living next to prison guard families would be a compelling reason to move there. And, who needs AC when there is malt liquor?
Bob Dobbs,
"Or adobe-oid substances."
Yep. But didn't. Shame, all the waste that central banks cause. This is exactly what Austrians mean by mal-investment.
Cheers,
prisonguard.com
If you build shit, people will come?
"C'mon, Bob, there are plenty of prisons in the area. There is your economic base. I imagine the idea of living next to prison guard families would be a compelling reason to move there. And, who needs AC when there is malt liquor?"
Elvis, so near and yet so far: we make them into prisons! Prisons for the thousands of people who should go to jail for their part in mortgage and real estate fraud and general Wall Street scuzziness.
They should be all forced to live in empty housing developments in the outer reaches of Riverside County with the AC locked to 92 degrees until they are dead. Or wish they were.
I am optimistic about solar power. With current tax incentives, not just solar water heating, but rooftop solar panels, are more than competitive with utilities in desert areas with big homes.
"And why would you want homeowners in the subdivision before you are done building it?"
You're not serious...right?
Cheers,
Misean
Back in the day when I worked construction, we hated having homeowners from next door getting in the way, parking where I wanted to put the truck, complaining about noise and nails in the street, etc.
Of course, that was the 1980s, when any house was sold before it was finished and real estate only went up!
Oh yeah, I want to live near a prison guard.
The Stanford Prison Experiment: A Simulation Study of the Psychology of Imprisonment
Cheers,
Reminds me of a coworker. He used to live in downtown San Diego (a renter), would go down to the beach regularly, liked the outdoors. He got married and his wife wanted a house. Bad. This was near the height of the boom, 2004, 2005. San Diego median home prices were north of $500,000k, so they packed up and moved to Riverside. Urg.
It's been about a year since I've seen him, but he used to drive down from Riverside every weekend to go to the beach. He'd crash at a friend's house. His wife would stay put in Riverside.
REAL GHOST TOWN:
Out of about 300 homes on the resale market in the community rising out of 4,800 acres of former ranches and farms near Tracy in the Central Valley, roughly 260 are in some state of foreclosure, according to the real estate website trulia.com
Central Valley Business Times
87% in FC! WOW!
"Out of about 300 homes on the resale market in the community rising out of 4,800 acres of former ranches and farms near Tracy in the Central Valley, roughly 260 are in some state of foreclosure, according to the real estate website trulia.com"
Doze 'em. Replant the cantaloupes and pinto beans.
You really have to see for yourself. The Inland Empire and Antelope Valley are some weird form of purpose built urban nightmare. All the worst qualities of exurbia at cenurban densities. We have a coastal home and a mountain getaway. That means we drive through one or the other every time we want to go to the cabin usually at Friday commute times. 20 years ago the Antelope Valley was sky dark territory. Now and endless sea of red tile roofs and sodium streetlights. Expensive to heat in the winter and summer and bitchslap expensive to cool in the summer aka Mar-Oct.
Fill 'em with marine batteries and cover the roofs with photovoltaics. Assign a security guard to every megablock.
Thank you Misean,
I was looking for something to read in between bank failures: Journal of Experimental Social Psychology
Volume 44, Issue 4, July 2008, Pages 929-942
Losing sight of oneself in the above-average effect: When egocentrism, focalism, and group diffuseness collide.
Re: Thus, in response to the question such as “How friendly is Nancy compared to the rest of us?” the answer tends to be “More friendly.”
Doze 'em. Replant the cantaloupes and pinto beans.
Bob Dobbs
I'll do it and they only fee I'll take is the underlying ground. Of course, I'll dump all the trash on the vacant subdivision next door, but, since no one lives there, who will notice?
Here's a perfect example of an exurban "city." Right between Livermore and Tracy in the SJV, 80% of the residents commute to the Bay Area. 5 miles to the nearest grocery store. Oh, and 260 of the 300 houses listed for sale are in foreclosure:
Mountain House: Caught between the dream and the nightmare
The dream of Mountain House is creation of one of the first completely new cities in California in decades, with 43,000 residents, 15,000 homes and more than 20,000 jobs.
But for many of the first settlers, Mountain House has become a nightmare.
Out of about 300 homes on the resale market in the community rising out of 4,800 acres of former ranches and farms near Tracy in the Central Valley, roughly 260 are in some state of foreclosure, according to the real estate website trulia.com.
In one example, a 2,136 square foot three bedroom, two-bath home currently on the market in Mountain House is listed at $323,000. The same home sold in 2005 for $577,000, according to San Joaquin County records.
Homeowners say they have to drive about five miles to the nearest supermarket in Tracy. The only store open in the “town center” is a convenience store.
Bakersfield is in deep poop.
Cheers,
Shoot, lost the link:
Central Valley Business Times
"This is the housing equivalent of Detroit cranking out huge SUV's that people no longer want."
Absolutely. Between housing, autos and investment banks it is the repudiation of a couple of generations of American business school dogma and the students they turned out. The notion that social responsibility is some sort of optional add-on has been fatal. The US auto industry, for instance, argued against mandatory CAFE standards. When those were dropped, the automakers took that as a license to reshape the entire market around irresponsibility. They succeeded and may, as a result, have destroyed their entire industry. Investment banks - same story. The housing industry, including the mortgage industry - same story.
These are suicides we are watching.
Oh, Crispy. Always one step ahead.
other jim,
"Back in the day when I worked construction, we hated having homeowners from next door getting in the way, parking where I wanted to put the truck, complaining about noise and nails in the street, etc."
Yes but the developer wants them sold and occupied A.S.A.P. I can understand from a contractors point of view.
Cheers,
Max - LOL!!
OT:American Airlines Plans Nearly 7,000 Job Cuts
Big Job Cuts Announced At American - NY Times
Misean - this is near the BA.
I am optimistic about solar power. With current tax incentives, not just solar water heating, but rooftop solar panels, are more than competitive with utilities in desert areas with big homes.
1-Megawatt Solar PV on 5-acres in NC
It is possible that these homes are holograms that have been projected to induce parapsychology related hallucinations and that the buyers of these illusions are either retarded or work for banks.
Hey Crispy!
What's up with City-In-The-Hills? There's a poster child if ever there was one.
50 miles one way between Mountain House and Oakland. That's expensive, even in a Prius:
Google Maps: Oakland to Mountain House
When this video was over, I saw Bob Toll in the nude?
Natural Hallucinogen
YouTube - Natural Hallucinogen
crispy,
Ah...sorry. Followed Max's link realized my error. Still, Bakersfield is in deep poop. Was there in May. Not pretty really.
Cheers,
LOL!!
So what is the total cost of a 300 home development including land and land development/infrastructure costs? Sounds like a big waste of some pension funds' money. Don't worry, though, Aunt Trudie can always work until she is 93.
We still our heavy Kern River Crude is boooooming right now...
Rob - City in the hills is crumbling...several more defaults in the last 60 days...the entire area is a mess...I drove through the "finished" neighborhoods and its not pretty.
The biggest area is the Suncal (Lehman Brothers) development and Greg Norman Golf Course. The area is TOAST... i wonder if Lehman has marked that "investment" to market yet??
Heavy crude is great for asphalt. The IE can just build a bunch more roads to nowhere to spend themselves out of this financial storm.
tranches of like,
kudos on thread music
Kona Freud,
My eyes are burning. That should come with a warning label. Unfortunately it doesn't come with the buzz shrooms does.
Shame really.
Cheers,
Ah, Mountain House.. here's a quote from '05 that I suspect someone wished they hadn't made:
--
"The East Bay is unique, it can be its own economic micro-climate," said Christopher George, president of CMG Financial Services, a San Ramon-based firm that provides mortgages and other services.
"You have what are essentially new towns that have sprouted in the East Bay, like Brentwood," George said. "You've got Mountain House. The East Bay will not see nearly as severe a downturn in housing'"
But, but Crispy... their website is soooo purdy.
City in the Hills
City In The Hills:
What color are your dreams? Do you gaze rolling hills of Mediterranean gold hills or stroll the shores of a swan-dotted lake under the cypresses? In the hills above Bakersfield, a new dream of master-planned living is taking shape. It’s City in the Hills, an inspired collection of homes in an exquisite master-planned community that is like nothing else the region has ever seen. Here, find a landscape to thrill your senses—hundreds of heritage olive trees swaying over Italianate porticos and fountains, a grand amphitheater made for concerts under the stars, shaded stradas connecting quiet neighborhoods with lush parks, charming commercial districts with every convenience. It’s truly a place like no other. Discover City in the Hills. Travel the country of your dreams.
I wonder if those swans are black?
crispy,
"i wonder if Lehman has marked that "investment" to market yet??"
No way dude. the market is illiquid now. It'll turn around. Level 3'd for sure. It's a good bet.
Cheers,
Mountain House is an interesting story. It goes back to NIMBYism and the tech boom.
In the 1990's the bay area was booming, but it was nearly impossible to build a house in most of the Bay Area because local governments, in general did everything they could to stop housing construction. In the urban areas such as Berkeley and San Francisco, the rallying cry was preserving neighborhoods and the special quality of life that these communities had. In outer suburbs, the cry was save our hills! Don't let XXX become another Oakland (or Berkeley or other undesirable Bay Area city). Tracy was one of the few outlets for suburban growth. Around 2000, Tracy's citizens passed an ordinance that placed a moratorium on new projects (although growth continued for several years as already-approved projects were built). To get around this, developers worked with San Joaquin County (and early on Alameda county as well) to build a new town the size of Tracy (about 50K) to keep the good times rolling. They designed it as a model of new urbanism and were able to buy off the Sierra Club and other anti-sprawl organizations.
The housing went in first and is the only thing there. While I'm sure that some of the office and industrial space will be developed, it really is, for the time being a very strange place with houses cheek by jowl but no stores or other kinds of development. It probably would have been better for everyone to allow more towers in San Francisco and Berkeley, Townhouses in Santa Clara and hillside houses in the east bay, but that wasn't the policy that we collectively chose.
Rob Dawg,
I wonder if their servers are on a modem. That took a while to load.
Cheers,
City in the hills is KHOV - the stock chart looks like a black swan and a black hole for your investment $$$
HOV: Summary for HOVNANIAN ENT INC- Yahoo! Finance
LOL... the home descriptions on that "City in the Hills" website reminds me of that episode of the Golden Girls where the hairdresser promised them all unique hairdos that would make them look like individual goddesses... but they all walked out with the same old-lady perms.
""You have what are essentially new towns that have sprouted in the East Bay, like Brentwood," George said. "You've got Mountain House. The East Bay will not see nearly as severe a downturn in housing'"
I think they wanted to convince the Mountain House people that there'd be jobs in Pleasanton for all of them, relatively near by. Fat chance. Pleasanton is a corporate back-office center, and I suspect most of the new hires sitein Bangalore.
As for Brentwood -- geez, what a travesty. Thousands of new commuters trying to jam themselves down one modest state highway to the Diablo Valley.
I really think Lehman is going to eat the Suncal dvelopment - they are in defaults to the tune of hundreds of millions on this project. The club house is half finished and exposed to the elements. the course is full of weeds 4 feet tall...
Well, that was interesting,
Technical Contact:
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I guess they don't want anyone to know who they are. That's typical of spammers. I didn't know developers wanted to hide their tracks as well.
Cheers,
"reminds me of that episode of the Golden Girls" -- mal
Is it me or does anybody find that statement disturbing...No offense, mal, I reference Punky Brewster some times ("Two different shoes. Genius."
For the first time in my life, I drove through Bakersfield, Ca yesterdat. I know, the question would be why? While I know it is not technically Inland Empire, it is beyond how and why any non-farmer would want to live there. Middle of freaking uninhabitable savannah, with absolutely nothing going for it.
I had a chance to see some of the IE this past weekend, for the first time since I left college in Riverside in the late 80s. I've been hearing stories around the campfire about how overbuilt things were out there. But the huge amounts of crackerbox housing tracts built in Upland, Fontana, Rancho Cucamonga, etc. were a sight to behold. I just had to wonder as I was looking at the expanse of housing, how many of those places were occupied? How many in foreclosure? How much had the prices dropped? It was just amazing to see what the artifacts of the housing bubble really looked like.
uʍop-ǝpısdn ʎlsnoıɹǝs ǝq ʇsnɯ ǝɹɐ ǝɥʇ uı sɹǝddılɟ ʎuɐ
"Weeds grow at Greg Norman golf course
By GRETCHEN WENNER, Californian staff writer
Last Updated: Friday, Jun 27 2008 7:27 AM
If you were hoping to tee off at the Greg Norman-designed golf course at McAllister Ranch anytime soon, donÂ’t hold your breath.
Weeds, some taller than your wife, currently thrive in the fairways.
ThatÂ’s because the course is not getting clipped much these days.
“The golf course is being watered at a maintenance level but it is not being groomed for course play at this time,” said Joe Aguirre, spokesman for Irvine-based SunCal Companies, the developer behind the financially strapped 6,000-home future community 15 miles southwest of downtown Bakersfield.
The course, which cost at least $8.3 million to build, court documents show, has been the highly touted centerpiece of the now-stalled housing development.
The influx of weeds is a setback, local greens experts say."
404 - Page not found
They should give immunity to meth labs that buy them.
Cheers,
I find this Suncal development debacle interesting. How much is golf affected by the economy? Do people play less golf where money is tough to get and they have to work harder (ie no golf meetings)? Do people drop their country club memeberships first or last when money gets tight? Do gas prices cut into green fee budgets? The point is, are a bunch of golf course about to go belly up?
The best way to view Bakersfield is from the 28th floor of the Crisp & Cole Tower on the world class university grounds near the new multi-use urban conclave.
Rob Dawg,
"The best way to view Bakersfield is from the 28th floor of the Crisp & Cole Tower on the world class university grounds near the new multi-use urban conclave."
That's really rubbing lemon and salt in the wound. You should be ashamed.
Cheers,
golf is a waste of time and water. I hope some kids with motorbikes rip up some of these courses before they get too overgrown.
Oh, but, if you pay attention to many of the posters on Peter Viles' blog, these won't be ghost towns for long! As soon as prices come back down to an affordable level, why then wonderful families will move in, clean up the blight, and form thriving communities! Yeah, right.
That City in the hills place is incredible! "Where do you want to be ... its not far"
Oh reallly?
Re San Joaquin Valley -- Anybody have a take on new urbanism? If it a fad or the future. Personally, I don't want my neighbors 2 feet from me, but I might be in the minority. (I think it is creepy to hear other people in the throws of passion, especially when both are 200lbs plus.)
The IE could become a retirement wasteland for broke senior californians once prices are off 75%. Need a lot of razorwire to secure perimeters and ample weapons to fend off the gangs. Problem is seniors don't like to pay taxes for infrastructure they won't use. Close schools and use them for bingo parlors and dance halls.
CA is in a world of hurt.
Elvis,
I know of several mid-city (many cities in LA) condo/apt's with commercial on the first floor almost completely empty.
So not sure.
Cheers,
IE and Central Valley are toast...low prices and low crime that kept people here. Now FC's are everywhere and crime is up bigtime.
The best way to view Bakersfield is from the 28th floor of the Crisp & Cole Tower on the world class university grounds near the new multi-use urban conclave.
Rob Dawg | Homepage | 07.02.08 - 7:51 pm | #
As a follower of the Crisp & Cole debacle, that's pretty funny.
barely,
Not a bad idea.
Cheers,
Corn rose the most in three weeks on speculation that hot, dry weather will threaten U.S. crops that already have smaller root systems than normal after the worst flooding since 1993.
Corn Gains as Hot, Dry Weather May Threaten Midwestern Crops - Bloomberg.com
I am the great Cornholio!
Anonymous | 07.02.08 - 7:59 pm |
You can't rightfully claim that without a heheheheh, and your Megadeath tee-shirt pulled over your head.
Cheers,
Corn rose the most in three weeks on speculation that hot, dry weather will threaten U.S. crops
Last week it was the flooding.
This week it is the drought.
Next week, Goldman Sachs?
Honestly, is there any reason stucco boxes (on postage stamp lots) anywhere in the IE should even rate a six figure price?
I didn't have any cor
And what of our poster child Temecula?
From The Argus. “All hands on deck! The Tri-City area’s unique pirate store plans to abandon ship after nearly three years on the stormy retail seas. Owner Don Hatcher said SeaWolf Trading Co. will raise anchor by Aug. 31, when the store’s lease is up.”
“‘We did great the first year, but we’ve been in the swamp for the past year, ever since the foreclosures started,’ he said. ‘We started to immediately see sales start slumping. People come in the store and they’re like, ‘Why are you closing?’ I don’t know if people don’t see what’s happening around them.’”
LMFAO!!!!
“Rather than struggle against the tide, Hatcher said he decided not to sink more money into the niche business. ‘We knew going into this that any business is risky,’ he said. ‘We thought we’d try to create something fun in Fremont. A more traditional business would be able to weather the storm better.’”
“Hatcher also was a vendor at last month’s second Northern California Pirate Festival in Vallejo. He said plenty of people attended but seemed to spend less than at last year’s fest.”
“He plans to sell off the décor, including an elaborate treasure cave, as well as the discounted wares before the store is sent to Davy Jones’s locker. ‘At first it’s shocking, you know,’ he said. ‘At a certain point you just kind of accept it and make plans for the next step.’”
Fremont's pirate store to abandon ship - Inside Bay Area
Crispy,
The towns in the Central Valley have never been especially safe - too many poor migrant workers lying about when there isn't work (BTW, I'm not being racist, it was likely the same way when the migrants were from Oaklahoma). Meth made it worse, and the profusion of abandoned housing won't help, but it was never a safe place.
Note: I actually like the Central Valley and thinking of moving back there, but I'm realistic about it.
The bottom is in...the Pirate Stores are going out of business..
crispy,
I live right by the pirate store and it's friggin hilarious. It's everything you imagine a large store selling only pirate crap would be.
I knew there were going to be hard times ahead, but were will I get pirate supplies now?
LOL!!
Pirate store? WTF is that!? You mean "Arrr...where's the eye patches aisle?" are likely questions asked? In Bakersfield? Damned ocean is a $5000 drive away???
Cheers,
Spent a few summer weekends in Bakersfield with the ex-girlfriend. Glad they are both exes. Couldn't stand the smell of Bakersfield manure when it gets up to 100 for days on end. The highest and best use for the Inland Empire and Bakersfield might be to turn it into solar and wind farms at this point.
Misean - Bay area. ARRR
I think the Bakersfield Visitors and Convention Bureau will be at my house tonight leaving a horses head...ARRR
Misean,
It's in Union City, between Okaland and San Jose. Yeah, the eye patch kind of pirate. They sell costumes, flags, memorabilia, swords etc.
The article is written by somebody who really doesn't know the LA area. Ontario and Corona aren't inherently undesirable and are anything but remote. From Ontario in particular it's at least 30 minutes of driving to get anywhere that isn't part of LA sprawl. Corona is right next to Orange county. Hemet or Indio or Hesperia - that's where you find really remote development disasters.
The problem with these developments is that they are horribly matched to the residents' needs. These are middle/lower class communities and the developments are whole cities of McMansions - sometimes 6000 sq ft 8 bedroom monstrosities - with no services and no jobs. There's not nearly enough wealthy people in the communities to soak them up and no room on the freeways for commuters (Green River, one of the exits from the 91 freeway to the North Corona McMansion farms, backs up as far as 2 miles on the freeway, with catastrophic results on everybody trying to commute past it.)
They are creepily empty - that part is true, and very depressing (I went there a few months ago just to see the spectacle). But this is the milder face of the housing catastrophe, places where people could plausibly commute to jobs and support services, if the houses would just drop 50% in price and be subdivided into duplexes or triplexes. But there are many far more hopeless places than this.
Now we know where Crimson Permanent Assurance shopped.
Aye, a pirate's life for me!
Winston,
I'm within a couple miles to and couldn't figure out how they made money..
Interesting thing where I live in Fremont is that the Indian community is very large here, they are all programming, hosting their parents to take care of the kids and using the last bart station on the east bay line for transportation. 1 neighbor works for oracle, another for yahoo, another for cisco etc..
They are great neighbors, not one keg party since I lived here. Just dont expect them to say hi back to you..Very weary of us americans..
Mountain house used to be the best farms for the sweetest melons in California. I know grower out there who did well at farmers markets thru-out N.Cali..
Now the only melons there are rotting!
Opportunity is knocking! Turn those ghost towns into Pirate towns!
SF's Castro district shut down their Halloween bash, what better place for a halloween party than an abandoned subdivision! A party all year long! Fill the punch bowl with grain alcohol and meth.
Eye patches and britches for all!
Raise the Jolly Roger mates and pray for good wind!
Investment bankers and mortgage fraudsters welcome!
cd - Bakersfield is the new home for the Indian community also. They are quiet neighbors and their kids do good in school...
Arrr...I gotta pay more attention.
Rob Dawg...
LOL
For your viewing pleasure:
YouTube - The Crimson Permanent Assurance part 1
People come in the store and they’re like, ‘Why are you closing?’ I don’t know if people don’t see what’s happening around them.
I think that pretty much sums up the attitude of... oh, everybody out and about on the west side of LA. Everything is fine. We have reached a permanently high plateau! WooHoo! :-/
C&C,
I just wish they would share some of their curry dishes. If you could have a neighbor Indian folks would rank high. Coming from Newport Beach living next to them has been peaceful!
They hate dogs though! They cross the street when I'm walking a dog on a leash that would pet a cat if it could. It's kind of funny being there as it happens.
dont drink, dont smoke what do you do!
Adam Ant
I think it's have a lot of kids and eat a lot of curry..
Kids and Parents are hard workers..
Nikkei drops 117 at the opening.
ARRRRRRRR
JBR-Coastal Orange County patrons also.
I wish to thank everyone for their input about prisons, and prison life on this blog. How many of you actually wrote the responses in prison? Well you may be bunking with an IB in a few months, so enjoy this time.
In the Penal Colony
In the Penal Colony - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Asphalt!
You guys, this might be polictically incorrect to some, but vast chunks of L.A. are really just slums. So why not develop those areas, over time, to more upscale and safe neighbourhoods. Reclaim the inner cities. In fact, this is inevitable and some of this seems to be already happening just south of downtown L.A. I mean even in the anglo UK, the more slummy tend to be somewhere that is further from downtown and the traffic is arranged by trail.
Misean: if you're talking about "s.k.y. companies," the developer, they have an address in bakersfield and, if related, in middlesex, england as well.
They could be related to s.k.y. capital:
Sky Capital Reorganizes
| Reuters
There is a skycos.com website (under construction as well...bwahahaha)
Their cfo and registrant of the website is Mimi Mok, of Los Angeles (and Hong Kong?)
She is on the executive committee of the Lusk Center at USC and strangely enough does not have a photo there like everyone else.
Lusk Center for Real Estate
Mimi is also president of Sky Management LLC, listed variously as a developer.
Lusk Center for Real Estate
Blade Runne
Blade Runner - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The film depicts a dystopian Los Angeles in November 2019 in which genetically manufactured beings called replicants – visually indistinguishable from adult humans – are used for dangerous and degrading work in Earth's "off-world colonies".
A high level of paranoia is present throughout the film with the visual manifestation of corporate power, omnipresent police, probing lights, and in the power over the individual represented particularly by genetic programming of the replicants. Control over the environment is seen on a large scale, hand in hand with the seeming absence of any natural life, with artificial animals being created as a substitute for the extinct originals. This oppressive backdrop clarifies why people are migrating to off-world colonies
Re: "Pirate towns"
I'm in, where do I sign up? This is a mega employment opportunity to turn these old fantasies into new ones!
Asphalt,
Blade Runner....you're serious? It's a classic you know?
YouTube - BLADE RUNNER - I've seen things
Cheers,
Uncle B. Climbs Mt. P,
Not sure they're the same. The server for this is in Irvine, CA.
Cheers,
Three minutes in:
Venture Bros Season 3 Preview
Hrmmm? Server for what? I thought you could put servers anywhere. People have servers on offshore oil rigs that have been declared sovereign countries!
So why not develop those areas
keeping 80% of LA a warzone keeps rents high for the politically-connected landowners who own the income property of the remiaining 20%
/bitter LA renter 1986-1992
"People have servers on offshore oil rigs that have been declared sovereign countries!"
I know. And that's so DAMNED cool.
Cheers,
So why not develop those areas
You know, it's not the buildings that make a disadvantaged area a terrible place to be.
dont drink, dont smoke what do you do!
Adam Ant
I think it's have a lot of kids and eat a lot of curry..
I'd love to see the music video
Misean,
That was always the key moment in that film, when the robot ends up having more humanity than the humans that engineered him! That may me a metaphor for this ghost town?
Please exchange be for me in previous sentence. Ooops
Ghost towns and Pirate shops, Mountain Home and City in the Hills,...Hey we got the Experimental Prototype Community of Tomorrow!
Re: " Experimental Prototype Community of Tomorrow"
I'm thinking all it takes is some CDO's, covered bonds and a handful of senior PIK toggle bonds, then a few thousand advertisements, a few Fox news people talking about how great the food is, and a free give away package, including eye patch and bandana, treasure map and Uncle Ben Fun Money, with a chopper on one side and happy smile on the other side...
CR - Lehman Brothers story on Bakersfield in Fortune Mag
Inside the turmoil at Lehman - Jul. 2, 2008
"There's a row of about 20 single story houses going in a few blocks away from me in western Riverside county.
"
My wife just mentioned this will be over-55 housing.
NEW YORK (Fortune) -- To understand what went wrong at Lehman Brothers, leave the canyons of Wall Street and head to the flatlands of Bakersfield, 120 miles northeast of Los Angeles.
That's where you'll find McAllister Ranch, envisioned as a 6,000-home, multibillion-dollar recreational community built around a Greg Norman-designed golf course, boating and fishing waters and a beach club. Now McAllister is three-square miles of fenced-off, almost lunar landscape punctuated by a half-finished clubhouse and a golf course gone to weeds.
So far Lehman's bets on McAllister and other real estate plays in Southern California's Inland Empire have cost Lehman at least $350 million.
None of Lehman's investment bank peers have this kind of exposure to the burst real estate bubble. Then there's the exposure all of them have: problems with collateralized loan obligations, leveraged buyouts, and mortgage-related securities. But Lehman insisted it was only minimally
( I had a heads up this story was coming, I was contacted by the magazine last week)
I get a kick out of the CNBC peeps that blame the down market on short sellers. Stocks are supposed to go in 1 direction- UP! It's hilarious.
Want to get a look at markets that don't have downside support of shorts covering? To the best of my knowledge the Shanghai market prohibits selling shares short.
And to think that I did legal work on some of these projects!
(yes we got paid.)
but all these huge houses on tiny little lots in places like Norco and Upland that were, for a while, priced at $700K a pop ... [shakes head]
who's going to live in these?
"You guys, this might be polictically incorrect to some, but vast chunks of L.A. are really just slums. So why not develop those areas, over time, to more upscale and safe neighbourhoods. Reclaim the inner cities."
History repeats. This really has been done again and again in the US. The 1950s 'urban renewal' period was the latest... and not too successful.
Ever hear of Pruitt-Igoe?
There is a big development that started across from the gated community in which I used to live here in Tucson. I go past every day and see lots of earth moving equipment and trucks and stuff there, but few or no people. Sometimes there seems to be a bit of activity, but it doesn't result in anything. I marvel at the spectacle. It seems that lots of the equipment is just being parked there. Nothing much makes sense in the building industry these days.
Jim,
The Only thing making dollars and cents in the building industry today is long SRS!
I think a lot of the condo towers in Phoenix are only fractionally occupied. It is difficult to get realtors to tell you what is really going on, if anything. I suspect general paralysis in lots of big markets.
I also note from some celebrity house blogs that even actors and similar who used to flip houses for a tidy profit every two years or so are having some problems and have to reduce their prices as well. A welcome development I would say.
I presume California is already in recession going on depression, if not the rest of the nation....yet. The California economy is what percentage of the total? Should be enough to drag down the rest before long.
Francis writes:
...but all these huge houses on tiny little lots in places like Norco and Upland that were, for a while, priced at $700K a pop ... [shakes head]
who's going to live in these?
Francis
Silly. Those tweren't "livin' homes" those were "tradin' homes."
crispy,
"I had a heads up this story was coming, I was contacted by the magazine last week"
Nice job.
Cheers,
Welp, everything's down in Asia land.
Hoocoodanode!
Cheers,
"get a kick out of the CNBC peeps that blame the down market on short sellers."
Same line of crap dished out durring the dot.boom melt down. I'm getting a woody.
The Fortune article blaames sorty for the 70% decline in Lehman's price not the multibillion boo-boos they made. Even funnier they say even though Merrill has a high ratio and much higher numerical exposure they are alright because they can sell their Bloomberg and BlackRock holdings to cover.
One of those days you wish the doctor hadn't nixed drinking. Then again saved some poor Merlot from ruining my keyboard. Lead off batter Lehman striking out and Merrill on deck, top of the second.
Rob - From my contacts Lehman was all over Bakersfield/Southern Valley...they were going to gobble up everything in sight..I guess it kind of backfired on them
thanks Misea
Rob Dawg,
"Lead off batter Lehman striking out and Merrill on deck, top of the second."
Too bad this is the bull pen:
MLB No-Hitters
DATE \tPITCHER \tTEAM \tSCORE \tOPPONENT \tSCORE \tLEAGUE \tNOTES
5/19/2008\tJon Lester\tBOS\t7\tKAN\t0\tA\t
9/1/2007\tClay Buchholz\tBOS\t10\tBAL\t0\tA\t
6/12/2007\tJustin Verlander\tDET\t4\tMIL\t0\tA\t
4/18/2007\tMark Buehrle \tCHW\t6\tTEX\t0\tA\t
9/6/2006\tAnibal Sanchez\tFLA\t2\tARI\t0\tN
those pesky specuvestors are startin early this evening gunning for the july 4th 150 print...
seeing as manana is a half day, they've got there work cut out for them.
Tranches of Like, I second Anonymouse, that was great thread music! And I liked our gracious host's choice of "Tied to the Whipping Post" this morning as well. There are some really witty and quick thinkers on this board!
On another subject, Rob Dawg, did you get your jumbo CD out? I didn't catch whether you got it safely away earlier today.
On our descent lower to Argentina, we have just hit another plateau with a wicked snapback rally to burn the shorts once again.
Ho hum. Are we not used to this month's crisis?
Seb should be joining Banker soon.
R.Dawg, you should be getting ready for the new state of California. We should be selling it to the Chinese sometime in 2010;-}
Seriously, the Feds are going to go ballistic with deficit spending financed by savings bonds. Kinda like a war without real destruction. Obama is going to face a really large crisis during his first 100 days.
I can hardly wait.
If anyone thinks this crisis is over, they should go home and get into bed and wait for this to end.
Someday this war's gonna end...
crispy,
"I guess it kind of backfired on them"
Naw man. Hope NOW! It's all gonna come back.
Cheers,
Hey, Crispy made a blog post. Keep 'em coming, man.
" top of the second."
Thanks, Rob Dawg. Meredith Whitney could learn a thing or two from you.
Nice Crispy,
Read you at least twice a week.
Cheers,
It is me from Europe writes:
'You guys, this might be polictically incorrect to some, but vast chunks of L.A. are really just slums.'
Amen Brother...Amen.
I lived in Pasadena for a year. I'm happily watching LA and CA implode.
I say burn it all dow
Wake up CR,
a huge rise in foreclosures.
My, my, Nor Car. Such vitriol. I've been in Nor Car and I much prefer Nor Cal, thank you.
Welp, everything's down in Asia land.
Hoocoodanode!
Cheers,
Misean | 07.02.08 - 9:31 pm
Except oil!
What was with coal, dow coal index down 13.83% buyers strike ?
RE: Ghost Towns
I lived in or close to a couple as I was growing up in California.
Pinedale was going to be a community built around the Sugar Pine Lumber Co. It went BK in the 30s. My dad was the principle at the elementary school. I remember streets, sidewalks and fireplugs and no houses.
Grass Valley was a living ghost town of the gold boom. It was a nice place for a kid but not much was going on. Haines AK was another living ghost town. Lots of empty houses in town.
Then there were the empty developments in San Berdo that I went jackrabbit hunting in and the one in Atascadero Beach that my girl friend and I would make out in. Happy times.
My mom, dad and aunts and uncles got their economic asses handed to them in the thirtys but got lucky in WW2. They lost 10 years at an age when gaining back lost opportunities was hard. I hope those young people, of today, who are going to be in the same situation don't spend 10 years of dead time.
Sue writes:
On another subject, Rob Dawg, did you get your jumbo CD out? I didn't catch whether you got it safely away earlier today.
Top post on my blog; "Last One Out Is An FDIC Creditor" [click homepage below.]
Andy_in_NZ:
Coal prices plunge as traders take profits - Telegraph
What speculation??
OT - I second Frank Barbara's excellent wrap-up on the groups of banking shares and their relative strengths. Eyes Wide Shutting.
Weirdness from the City in the Hills:
Phillipe Laik and Mimi Mok --
404 - Page not found
This pair patented some sort of apparatus for improving contact management:
Method and apparatus for optimizing, managing and scheduling personal relationships - US Patent 6980870 Description
But who is the Dennis A. Harris fellow?
Argento
Looks like a buyers strike to me, oil next...
A development 15 miles from BAKERSFIELD??
I guess it's an exurb for all those officers at vandenburg AFB.
Lehman was also heavily into treasure coast (FL) developments that went pear shaped.
condo tower in Tempe has 15 of 300 in tower 1 "sold", tower 2 is now rental/timeshare, still need $50mm to finish, can't get financing.
If it wasn't occupied by March, it won't be for the forseeable future.
They'll need a RTC just for condos & aparthotels.
OT:
Blockbuster Withdraws Proposal To Acquire Circuit City
Not surprising. Don't need an HDTV for that new house in the suburbs if the new house is being foreclosed.
Blockbuster Withdraws Proposal To Acquire Circuit City
Not surprising. Don't need an HDTV for that new house in the suburbs if the new house is being foreclosed.
That, and it'll take $5 of gas just to get the movie. Netflix/Roku wins in the oil sweepstakes.
andy in NZ writes:
"Looks like a buyers strike to me, oil next..."
It's already started. Check out today's buyer's vacuum in top performing coal and oil service stocks
(MEE and SLB for ex.).
Looks like when Trichet talks, people listen.
The problem is there is just no shortage of land in the desert, and little to stop prices from falling to the cost of building.
I can't think of a building in town that I would buy for the cost of construction. I'd rather wait.
Greedy desert rat aka
Fair Economist | 07.02.08 - 8:13 pm |
Hey, no fair injecting real facts. This blog is too much fun as it is.
Yes, the finance wizard obviously flew in from New York to check on some developments and though they were in the Inland Empire. Oh, well.
Meanwhile, in the Hesperia portion of your triad, the housing tracts were strictly workingclass/middleclass and some are now available under $200k. Adjustments take time, but they do happen.
Uncle B.:
LMAO. Talk about a worthless vanity patent. The only reason that made it through the PTO at all is because anything involving technology but is otherwise unpatentable has been approved in the last few years. I'm sure you can get a patent on a method of wiping your ass if you program a computer to tell you when and in what direction.
I think that's about to change in the next year or two with some cases headed for the Federal Circuit and Supreme Court.
Misean | 07.02.08 - 8:19 pm | #
Great catch on pirates and investment banks. Haven't seen that in many years.
"Silly. Those tweren't "livin' homes" those were "tradin' homes." And now there's pressure for the gubment to buy 'em to keep prices up. This sounds like our agricultural policy. The question is, will they be plowed under, or given away as the housing equivalent of "government cheese"? I'm reminded of the Heinlein novel Door into Summer where the main character gets a job crushing cars that were made and then bought by the government expressly to keep people employed in the auto industry.
"Re San Joaquin Valley -- Anybody have a take on new urbanism? If it a fad or the future. Personally, I don't want my neighbors 2 feet from me, but I might be in the minority. (I think it is creepy to hear other people in the throws of passion, especially when both are 200lbs plus."
Having "enjoyed" enough "living in an anthill" years thanks to the Housing Bubble and its long-last ability to make housing unaffordable for the sane, I'd sooner live in the middle of Nowhere then go along with some New Urbanist "utopia" where everyone is condemned to live like rats in cages, I mean "attached housing products," for their whole lives.
"You know, it's not the buildings that make a disadvantaged area a terrible place to be."
Nope, it's the negros!
I think new urbanism could also be about better planning - more walkable. Mixed use development, apartments over street level businesses. blahblah. Nothing new about it IMO.
That being said, some of the new apartments and lofts roundabout here in Denver look miserable. WTF happened to patios, anyway? You could barely fit a small grill on it. Some of the schmancy downtown lofts just forsake the patio and have a door that opens to a rail. Just jump on out. Must be maximizing the square footage or something. No doubt these new building are made of cheap materials and thus you can hear all your neighbors through every wall.
Would it even be worth it to bulldoze these places down? Bulldozers eat up quite a bit of diesel.
Ahhh haa haa. $4.50/gallon gas. I laugh at all the SUVs and pick-up truck drivers now. Maybe Detroit will get its head out of its butt, and stop making gas guzzlers, and make some cooler, small cars. Is it any wonder why Detroit is becoming irrelevant?