I wonder if people being out of work has anything to do with this?
Credit-card debt is becoming even more prominent in the struggling state of the economy. The average amount per consumer rose to $6,900 in the last year, a 21 percent increase, according to Experian, a global information services company. The average number of past-due accounts also increased to exceed more than one per consumer.
And it's not just those with low salaries who are susceptible.
Released on 7/3/2008 9:00:00 AM For July, 2008
\tPrevious\tActual
RBC CASH Index\t22.5 \t14.6
July RBC CASH (Consumer Attitudes and Spending by Household) index dropped to 14.6, a new all-time low since its inception in 2002, compared to 22.5 in June. Soaring gas and food prices and a stock market that just endured its worst June performance since the Great Depression are draining consumers' wallets as well as their confidence. The survey found that, while consumer attitudes regarding the employment market show signs of stabilizing, Americans' confidence in future personal financial conditions, current conditions and investments continue to weaken.
The worlds equity markets lost US$3 trillion in June as the global equity market declines that began in mid-May picked up pace and gained negative momentum at the end of the month, says Standards and Poor.
Its senior index analyst Howard Silverblatt said Thursday that only three (all emerging) of the 52 markets were up in June - similar to the devastating month of January when 50 of the 52 markets lost ground.
Emerging markets posted declines of 10.07% in June, 1.64% in the second quarter and 12.5% year-to-date.
All of the developed markets fell in June, losing 8.18% for the month, 2.49% for the second quarter and 7.9% year-to-date.
Investors around the world know that stock prices tanked last month during a global sell-off. Now Standard & Poor's has figured out just how deep the market losses were: $5.2 trillion US.
Emerging markets lost 12.4 per cent of their value in January, while developed markets lost 7.8 per cent, the ratings agency said Friday.
The NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production and wholesale-retail sales."
So we're at least 3 for 5 now, right? If I were in the White House, I would be pulling out all the stimulus stops I could think of so the recession didn't start on my watch.
Inflation worries slammed global stock markets late in the second quarter, aborting a budding recovery. Collectively, world markets lost $840 billion, after June's $3 trillion loss wiped out gains from April and May, according to S&P senior index analyst Howard Silverblatt.
U.S. inflation pressures fell in June to more than a four-year low, driven by disinflationary moves in measures of jobs, loans, interest rates and commodity prices, a report said on Friday.
Global stocks close dismal half Global stocks close dismal half
| Funds
| Reuters
The worldwide credit crisis that burst onto investors' radar screens nearly a year ago wiped out some $3.3 trillion (650 billion pounds) in global stock market wealth in the first half of this year, and optimism for a second-half recovery is fading fast.
His problem is that his "product" doesn't have any feel for the market....just like hundreds of quant. boxes. Strategies like that is how we got into this whole problem.
NVDA got whollopped on two fronts. Extreme gamers (like me) have less to spend. And AMD's ATI just pushed out a card for $200 that is nearly as good as their $600 card.
I am having trouble finding this bitch, does anyone know where to obtain MSCI All-World Index??
Re: MSCI All-World Index has fallen 11.9 percent, equal to a $3.3 trillion haircut. While the global benchmark is down 17 percent from its record close last October, it is not yet in bear market territory, typically marked by a decline of 20 percent of more.
I am close here, but will need your help, and then would like to see performance since last july 4th please.
Mr E-mini f-bomb guy from earlier this year sez he made a million yesterday and quit trading. Since he's quite the permabull I think he's being funny again.
GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares tumble worldwide; ECB raises rates 404 Page not found
"Only now are people beginning to realise quite how dark this particular storm is looking, but it's been a long time coming."
The FTSEurofirst 300 index was down 0.7 percent, having hit a level not seen since July 2005. MSCI's main world equity index fell 0.5 percent to its lowest since Jan. 23.
The gloom was all-pervasive, with Tokyo stocks setting their longest losing streak in more than half a century.
On Wall Street, the Dow has sunk into a bear market -- a fall of 20 percent from peaks. On Thursday, U.S. stock futures were indicating a weaker open on main indexes later.
In the currency market, the euro benefited from expectations for more interest rate hikes from the ECB, while the dollar fell as low as $1.5902 per euro.
Hope Now, a group backed by the Bush administration to help stem the mortgage crisis, said Wednesday that about 169,000 borrowers received some form of loan workout in May, down from 177,000 a month earlier. The group said it is on pace to assist about 520,000 borrowers in the second quarter, the highest number in any quarter since the effort started last year.
Foreclosures, meanwhile, have continued to escalate. According to Hope Now's data, sales of foreclosed properties were running at nearly 82,000 per month in April and May, up from a pace of about 66,000 per month in the January-March period.
Nearly 3 million U.S. homeowners are likely to default on their mortgages this year and about half will lose their homes, said Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody's Economy.com. Hope Now is "helpful, but it's getting overwhelmed by the magnitude of the problem," he said.
Nationwide, 261,255 homes received at least one foreclosure-related filing in May, up 48 percent from the same month last year and up 7 percent from April, according to foreclosure listing service RealtyTrac Inc.
Will people applying for extended benefits change the unemployment figures? (It's my understanding that people no longer collecting benefits aren't counted in some of the formulas; will they get added back in if they start receiving benefits again?)
Margin Call of Cthulhu said: "So we're at least 3 for 5 now, right [in regards to NBER recession definition]? If I were in the White House, I would be pulling out all the stimulus stops I could think of so the recession didn't start on my watch."
Well, there are declines but they haven't been significant yet.
Real GDP is still positive. Year-over-year Q1 2008 was +2.5% over Q1 2007 and Q2 2008 is looking to be around +2%.
The NBER has observed that employment needs to fall by about -1% or more from its peak to qualify as recessionary, but as of today's non-farm payrolls number we're only -.32% off the Dec. 2007 peak. (We'll need another 800,000+ net job losses in addition to the 400,000+ we already have, just for some perspective.)
Industrial production would have to drop about -4% from its peak, and we're only at about -1.43% now.
No question that the economy is growing at a slower pace, but conditions are going to have to really accelerate to the downside or there's not going to be any recession, only real GDP growth in the 2%-2.5% range.
This recession might be different, and not have as much jobless claims and unemployment. I don't think there is any doubt we are in recession. what would the SP 500 be at with no energy sector.
Mark Zandi must have a neck like Linda Blair in The Exorcist since all he does is drive looking out the rear window. Do people actually pay for his "sage" advice?
It is my understanding that the reason they won't count those receiving the extension of benefits is that they won't fall off the rolls before the benefits are extended.
My benefits were exhausted last year, and I got all excited thinking I could draw again, but the benefits are apparently only for people who are currently receiving them.
The rest of us don't get anything else, and we still aren't counted in the stats any more.
I wonder if people being out of work has anything to do with this?
Credit-card debt is becoming even more prominent in the struggling state of the economy. The average amount per consumer rose to $6,900 in the last year, a 21 percent increase, according to Experian, a global information services company. The average number of past-due accounts also increased to exceed more than one per consumer.
And it's not just those with low salaries who are susceptible.
First in line at the unemployment office.
yeah but the markets like it because it delays a rate rise.
The question is, will they apply their new* (and improved IMHO) methodology retroactively? Do they have the data needed to do so?
*not counting extended benefits as new claims.
waiting for CR to post something on ECB rate hike. That promises to be a chewy discussion.
Woohoooo!
Second half recovery as promised.
And fewer people working means more debts to be paid off.
I should have a beer for breakfast. Alas I still have a job, and can't participate in these joyous events as the 62K newly unemployed can.
That just sucks.
Cheers,
RBC CASH Index
Released on 7/3/2008 9:00:00 AM For July, 2008
\tPrevious\tActual
RBC CASH Index\t22.5 \t14.6
July RBC CASH (Consumer Attitudes and Spending by Household) index dropped to 14.6, a new all-time low since its inception in 2002, compared to 22.5 in June. Soaring gas and food prices and a stock market that just endured its worst June performance since the Great Depression are draining consumers' wallets as well as their confidence. The survey found that, while consumer attitudes regarding the employment market show signs of stabilizing, Americans' confidence in future personal financial conditions, current conditions and investments continue to weaken.
Misean writes: "Alas I still have a job . . . "
There's still hope.
The worlds equity markets lost US$3 trillion in June as the global equity market declines that began in mid-May picked up pace and gained negative momentum at the end of the month, says Standards and Poor.
Its senior index analyst Howard Silverblatt said Thursday that only three (all emerging) of the 52 markets were up in June - similar to the devastating month of January when 50 of the 52 markets lost ground.
Emerging markets posted declines of 10.07% in June, 1.64% in the second quarter and 12.5% year-to-date.
All of the developed markets fell in June, losing 8.18% for the month, 2.49% for the second quarter and 7.9% year-to-date.
Now a quick ride to 500K?
From Feb 8, 2008
Anyone have a number on the write downs by banks and mortgage gurus since last summer??
Global stock markets lost $5.2 trillion US in January
CBC News - Money - Global stock markets lost $5.2 trillion US in January
Investors around the world know that stock prices tanked last month during a global sell-off. Now Standard & Poor's has figured out just how deep the market losses were: $5.2 trillion US.
Emerging markets lost 12.4 per cent of their value in January, while developed markets lost 7.8 per cent, the ratings agency said Friday.
woops posted on previous thread:
and as predicted the market responds postively jumping up 70 points...
and its a Friday too....
after 3 years i think i am actually starting to get this market response thingy down... now where did i put my doillars...oh yeah, GM, hold on..
the BLS has apparently changed their methodology
At BLS, we make only positive changes to employment numbers. The birth/death model is one of our favorites.
The NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production and wholesale-retail sales."
So we're at least 3 for 5 now, right? If I were in the White House, I would be pulling out all the stimulus stops I could think of so the recession didn't start on my watch.
On a global basis, we gotta be down a few trillion!
World markets rocked by inflation
Business & Technology | World markets rocked by inflation | Seattle Times Newspaper
Inflation worries slammed global stock markets late in the second quarter, aborting a budding recovery. Collectively, world markets lost $840 billion, after June's $3 trillion loss wiped out gains from April and May, according to S&P senior index analyst Howard Silverblatt.
OT:
Totally laughable post on The Big Picture today that blames Trichet's raising rates for the weak dollar and oil's....ahem......"issues".
As if the problem didn't start here with our wonderful group of officials.
Barry Ritholtz has lost it big time.
Ciao
MS
U.S. inflation pressures fell in June to more than a four-year low, driven by disinflationary moves in measures of jobs, loans, interest rates and commodity prices, a report said on Friday.
REFILE-US inflation pressures lowest since Jan 2004 -ECRI
| Reuters
Right down the Japanese currency debasement rat hole.
Global stock markets lost $5.2 trillion US in January
Taken up in the rapture of deflation it's now resting in peace in money heaven.
Amen.
Global stocks close dismal half
Global stocks close dismal half
| Funds
| Reuters
The worldwide credit crisis that burst onto investors' radar screens nearly a year ago wiped out some $3.3 trillion (650 billion pounds) in global stock market wealth in the first half of this year, and optimism for a second-half recovery is fading fast.
Barry Ritholtz has lost it big time.
MS,
And he bought this turd of a market. He'd probably ban me again if I posted "Sold to you!"
Well that futures market pump job did little.
Cheers,
His problem is that his "product" doesn't have any feel for the market....just like hundreds of quant. boxes. Strategies like that is how we got into this whole problem.
"Sold to you"
Understatement of the week...
Touche' Trichet
Ciao
MS
Anonymouse writes:
He'd probably ban me again if I posted "Sold to you!"
LOL.
yet another example of our wonderful financial analysis system at work:
Nvidia Raised To Outperform From Perform By Oppenheimer >NVDA
After it lost 28% and slashed guidance.
Methinks Oppen. has a large underwater position.
Ciao
MS
U.S. June ISM services index 48.2% vs 51.7 in May
MS,
NVDA got whollopped on two fronts. Extreme gamers (like me) have less to spend. And AMD's ATI just pushed out a card for $200 that is nearly as good as their $600 card.
I say buy....NOW!
Oh and buy IMB. They need some love.
Cheers,
Oh, great GoogaMooga, can't you hear me talking to you.
Well that futures market pump job did little.
Makes the open down-move look all the more prettier, like somebody cut the cable.
That ISM report seems to have cut the legs out from under the market.
TIMBERRRRR!
Ipodius,
So Trichet didn't bluff and hiked rate. What now? deflation or inflation?
TSX down another 200 points. I agree with the painflation scenario.
can't talk......buying AMB, MBIA, GM, F,C,LEH,HOG, and a few others that are going to save us all!!!!
Ciao
MS
I am having trouble finding this bitch, does anyone know where to obtain MSCI All-World Index??
Re: MSCI All-World Index has fallen 11.9 percent, equal to a $3.3 trillion haircut. While the global benchmark is down 17 percent from its record close last October, it is not yet in bear market territory, typically marked by a decline of 20 percent of more.
I am close here, but will need your help, and then would like to see performance since last july 4th please.
Bloomberg.com:
Personal Finance
ISM services employment 43.8% vs 48.7% in May
We are a service economy, no need to worry about reecssion.
Mr E-mini f-bomb guy from earlier this year sez he made a million yesterday and quit trading. Since he's quite the permabull I think he's being funny again.
Oh darn just when i think i had it figured out it started responding correctly...
in golf its a lag....
Oh and all those shares we told you to buy (Needham,Kaufman, JPM) at mostly 25 and above?????
Hold those now.....
Sell is still a four letter word to these pricks
Ciao
MS
MSCI Barra
The MSCI World is a stock market index of 'world' stocks.
It is maintained by Morgan Stanley Capital International.
The Employment & Training Admin. of the Dept of Labor puts out the UI claims data not BLS.
They are seperate divisions within the DOL.
DD
GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares tumble worldwide; ECB raises rates
404 Page not found
"Only now are people beginning to realise quite how dark this particular storm is looking, but it's been a long time coming."
The FTSEurofirst 300 index was down 0.7 percent, having hit a level not seen since July 2005. MSCI's main world equity index fell 0.5 percent to its lowest since Jan. 23.
The gloom was all-pervasive, with Tokyo stocks setting their longest losing streak in more than half a century.
On Wall Street, the Dow has sunk into a bear market -- a fall of 20 percent from peaks. On Thursday, U.S. stock futures were indicating a weaker open on main indexes later.
In the currency market, the euro benefited from expectations for more interest rate hikes from the ECB, while the dollar fell as low as $1.5902 per euro.
DD, of course. Fixed.
For some reason the BLS was on my mind this morning!
Best Wishes.
REbear, how's ISM work? Above 50 indicates expansion?
Always look on the bright side of life
So if 48.7% is a slight improvement on deemployment, then 43.8% is more even better?
Hope Now, a group backed by the Bush administration to help stem the mortgage crisis, said Wednesday that about 169,000 borrowers received some form of loan workout in May, down from 177,000 a month earlier. The group said it is on pace to assist about 520,000 borrowers in the second quarter, the highest number in any quarter since the effort started last year.
Foreclosures, meanwhile, have continued to escalate. According to Hope Now's data, sales of foreclosed properties were running at nearly 82,000 per month in April and May, up from a pace of about 66,000 per month in the January-March period.
Nearly 3 million U.S. homeowners are likely to default on their mortgages this year and about half will lose their homes, said Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody's Economy.com. Hope Now is "helpful, but it's getting overwhelmed by the magnitude of the problem," he said.
Nationwide, 261,255 homes received at least one foreclosure-related filing in May, up 48 percent from the same month last year and up 7 percent from April, according to foreclosure listing service RealtyTrac Inc.
Will people applying for extended benefits change the unemployment figures? (It's my understanding that people no longer collecting benefits aren't counted in some of the formulas; will they get added back in if they start receiving benefits again?)
Margin Call of Cthulhu said: "So we're at least 3 for 5 now, right [in regards to NBER recession definition]? If I were in the White House, I would be pulling out all the stimulus stops I could think of so the recession didn't start on my watch."
Well, there are declines but they haven't been significant yet.
Real GDP is still positive. Year-over-year Q1 2008 was +2.5% over Q1 2007 and Q2 2008 is looking to be around +2%.
The NBER has observed that employment needs to fall by about -1% or more from its peak to qualify as recessionary, but as of today's non-farm payrolls number we're only -.32% off the Dec. 2007 peak. (We'll need another 800,000+ net job losses in addition to the 400,000+ we already have, just for some perspective.)
Industrial production would have to drop about -4% from its peak, and we're only at about -1.43% now.
No question that the economy is growing at a slower pace, but conditions are going to have to really accelerate to the downside or there's not going to be any recession, only real GDP growth in the 2%-2.5% range.
Sebastia
Sebastian,
How's your equity/house portfolio doing? Need some spare change?
This recession might be different, and not have as much jobless claims and unemployment. I don't think there is any doubt we are in recession. what would the SP 500 be at with no energy sector.
Mark Zandi must have a neck like Linda Blair in The Exorcist since all he does is drive looking out the rear window. Do people actually pay for his "sage" advice?
CR,
Is there any oficial statement about the change in DOL's methodology?
Thanks
It is my understanding that the reason they won't count those receiving the extension of benefits is that they won't fall off the rolls before the benefits are extended.
My benefits were exhausted last year, and I got all excited thinking I could draw again, but the benefits are apparently only for people who are currently receiving them.
The rest of us don't get anything else, and we still aren't counted in the stats any more.
And then we have the jerk on CNBC yesterday saying "Claims aren't at 450,000 yet". Don't like the answer, just like bush, change the goals.