NEW YORK -
Deutsche Bank analyst Mike Mayo revised his second-quarter and 2008 estimates for Merrill Lynch & Co. Tuesday night, and now expects the investment bank to lose money because of larger-than-expected write-downs.
Mayo estimates Merrill Lynch will lose $1.91 per share in the second quarter, compared with a previous estimate for earnings of 87 cents per share. Mayo slashed his full-year estimate to a loss of $2.50 per share from projected profit of 25 cents per share.
Analysts have been slashing second-quarter estimates for Merrill Lynch in recent weeks. Analysts, on average, now expect Merrill Lynch to lose $1.50 per share, according to Thomson Financial. A month ago, the average estimate was for profit of 41 cents per share.
Tuesday morning Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Meredith Whitney also cut her estimates for Merrill Lynch. Like Mayo, Whitney expects Merrill Lynch to post losses in the second quarter and for the full year.
Merrill Lynch will likely take $5 billion in write-downs on various investment assets, Mayo wrote in a research note. Mayo said he expects Merrill Lynch to reduce the value of its collateralized debt obligations and both residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities.
Collateralized debt obligations are complex financial instruments that combine various slices of debt, and often include portions of mortgage-backed securities.
Merrill Lynch will also have to take write-downs tied to its exposure to bond insurers, Mayo wrote in the note.
Merrill Lynch, like other investment banks, has posted losses in recent quarters tied to the ongoing credit crisis and weakening values of certain investments like mortgage-backed securities.
As mortgages have increasingly defaulted over the past year, banks have been forced to slash the value of their holdings because investors have shied away from purchasing bonds backed by the troubled loans. Investors have also fled from other types of debt perceived as risky, sending the credit markets into a tailspin.
Mayo also cut his price target on the stock to $38 from $43, and maintained his "Hold" rating.
It just never ends, does it? I think the price "target" is in the wrong direction. It ought to be down toward $10 a share rather than up from here.
And telling people to "hold" the stock is a real gas.
I think it would be smart for everyone to step up to the confessional in July. There's no way to spin any of the news as good, so you may as well get the pain over with. Kind of like ripping off a band aid or jumping head first into a cold swimming pool.
ISM non-factory employment index at a slight new low, prices paid at a whopping new high. Methinks they are pretty directly related. Offset costs of one kind with cuts of another.
These are probably an indicator of service-level comsumer pull-back and totally price related. But you know what this week is smelling like? Fear. I love the smell of fear. It's when people do incredibly stupid things. And if people didn't do incredibly stupid things, there would be no recovery.
And speaking of incredidbly stupid things, Trichet raised today as widely expected. Look for him to have to reverse course before year end as the Euro-zone grinds to a halt and contracts really fast, which by the way, the exactly what shouldn't happen now when you're fighting deflation. We have a staring contest between he and Bernanke. I'm betting Trichet will be forced to blink first.
The biggest surge of mortgage defaults in seven decades coincides with an increase in blazes in foreclosed properties led by states with the most repossessed homes, according to fire safety officials in Nevada, Massachusetts and Ohio.
well, Trichet doesn't have a mandate to watch for economy. He only has to look at the price stability.
I'd bet that his mandate also includes something about employment cause, you know, it's really hard to have stable prices with massive unemployment. And that's where they are headed because the more he raises, the more oil does and the more the system slows down. If the Fed had balls they'd cut and watch him squeal. Because, frankly at this point, we could be about .5 lower to head off the deflationary pressures but the dollar would crater. Better the Fed let's the ECB do the damage that's needed here.
I've said this before, but the problem with Bush's malapropisms is that occasionally people take him at face value.
For instance, in that speech about the Ownership Society, he really mean to say Owership Society, wherein more people, (those who never had the capacity to owe very much,) got to owe more than they ever imagined.
Then there was that fly-in to the USS Lincoln. He told them he wanted a banner; "FUBAR Accomplished". Of course, everyone assumed he'd misspoken so they changed it to Mission...
"Trichet raised today as widely expected. Look for him to have to reverse course before year end as the Euro-zone grinds to a halt and contracts really fast, which by the way, the exactly what shouldn't happen now when you're fighting deflation."
He isn't, Ben is. Raising rates there only make inflation worse for them and deflation worse for the US. Ben need to raise and Trichet needs to cut. The Dollar as the worlds reserve currency has them both f#cked. Japan did the same damn thing as Ben which launched the price of necessities for highly indebted consumers into orbit and gutted the rest of the economy which led to rising unemployment and stagnant wages.
The effect of inflation to squeeze expenditures and thus reduce employment -- nasty. So much for "free trade" (actually China manipulated currency, etc, so it wasn't)....
Prices paid by non-manufacturing organizations for purchased materials and services increased in June for the 61st consecutive month. ISM's Non-Manufacturing Prices Index for June registered 84.5 percent, 7.5 percentage points higher than May's index of 77 percent. June's reading is the highest reading for the Prices Index since the Non-Manufacturing report began. In June, the percentage of respondents reporting higher prices is 72 percent, the percentage indicating no change in prices paid is 26 percent, and 2 percent of the respondents reported lower prices.
"An auto analyst with JPMorgan says General Motors Corp. is not in danger of an imminent bankruptcy, but will need to raise about $10 billion in cash to weather the downturn in U.S. auto sales."
"It looks like, this recession, women will also lose jobs ... because of the real estate crisis and the financial services crisis," Ms. Hartmann says. "Something like 142,000 women work in real estate compared to 42,000 men."
A recent Senate report found that the number of unemployed adult women increased by 20 percent from March 2007 to March 2008, compared with a 17 percent increase among adult men.
anon, the Fed does not need to raise and shouldn't in a strongly deflationary environment. we could be even lower, but we're constrained. the trick here is going to be in the timing. when can the fed raise without causing dislocation? and will Trichet's raise help us out by grinding the EU zone down and creating massive demand destruction for oil there too?
if i were a fed governor, i'd be playing the game of standing pat for a while and let others take action when the field position is unclear. sometimes standing still is an active movement. and great policy.
I can't think of ANYBODY who wants the Fed to cut>>
I can think of several I-banks that need to produce yield from somewhere. Widening spreads is the only way they will survive.
That being said they are not lending out that money they get from the Fed alphabet soup auctions....at some point they might. That's when the spreads will become important....but that's a long way off
Mullen featured in a recent Seymour Hersh piece in the New Yorker that said the White House had "significantly expanded" US special operations in Iran.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff, whose chairman is Admiral Mike Mullen, were 'pushing back very hard' against White House pressure to undertake a military strike against Iran, the person familiar with the Finding [presidential authorisation] told me.
yearning, absolutely not. there was an excellent article by evans-pritchard today that I totally agree with. The ECB needs to cut and the Fed needs to raise...but with exquisite care. this is NOT inflation. this is DEFLATION and it's big time...coupled with the mother of all credit squeezes. we need loose policy to deal with the credit issues, and then raises to stop inflation from exploding in any recovery phase.
remember it takes 12 to 18 months for central bank policy to take effect...what battle are we fighting here now? and in the future? you raise rates to shrink the money supply. my friend, the money supply IS shinking with no help from the Fed or the ECB, so exactly what is Trichet fighting? Oil prices? He raises and they rise. Inflation? There is no inflation, just price issues. Watch this unfold and then we'll discuss where I might be wrong. but from where i sit now, that is the analysis.
I think the dollar and Euro should be merged into one currency and that The Fed should join The ECB, then we should nuke China and take over the friggin world ...... moohahahahahahaha
I think too many people are "scared" of deflation.
i'm not so sure everyone would like the unintended consequences of speeding it up. would you take being personally without a source of income or any wealth expansion for say, oh about a year to make this happen drew? how about your entire family and friends?
Seymour Hersh deserves respect for his investigative reporting on our criminal government's aggression toward the world.
It needs to be noted that he, and many others, have been predicting an attack on Iran by the U.S. & Israel (w/ assist from Turkey) since 2005. An attack does not make any sense strategically from my perspective, but what do I know?
would you take being personally without a source of income or any wealth expansion for say, oh about a year to make this happen drew? how about your entire family and friends?
Wouldn't bother me in the least, and I think that there would be countless opportunities to move forward in a positive way. Our society needs a serious wake up call, and keeping the current system intact is nothing more than maintaining the status quo: keeping the same crooks in power, and ensuring that the wealthy elite continue business as usual.
The US:
. De-leveraging massive bad debts by banks
. Loose monetary policy by FED to save the banks and spur growth
. Effects are inflationary to the Rest of the World (ROW)
The ROW:
. Inflations are rampant
. Counter inflation by hiking rates
. Effects are slower growth
. Demands for commodities drop so will prices
Conclusion:
. Growth in US
. Slower growth in ROW
. The FED is forcing the ROW to slow economic growth by easy money policy
well drew i'm not. and i'm pretty sure that the VAST majority of americans are not either. so it's not an option for a government. but it might make good blog counterpoint.
i think sometimes poster here forget the Fed is acting for the aggregate good, no matter what status you have. and that's what democracy is about. so you'll have to sit back and watch this without your policy coming to effect. and thank god i must say because it would be massively destructive across asset classes. you say you don't care, but you would be squealing like mad if what you wished for happened. i'd rather not chance that.
The ROW:
. Inflations are rampant
. Counter inflation by hiking rates
. Effects are slower growth
. Demands for commodities drop so will prices
The problem with that is as they raise rates the dollar falls and commodity prices rise more. Also more money pours into those countries seeking higher interest rates.
Trichet is doing the right thing, keeping a mildly tight policy stance while providing liquidity to banks.
Birdbrain Bernanke did fine with the credit facilities and the rate cuts last fall, but is insane for his vastly accommodative policy, never should've lowered to 2%, should've raised 25bp his last crack. You can ameliorate some, but not all of the damage and there's only so many ponies to go around. The game was afoot last May, so it's not as if banks who had their shit together should be past the worst.
Credit destruction isn't normally a good thing, but in this case it is. The credit creation thru mass securitization was a toxic brew and lessons need to be learned in order to have a properly functioning economy going forward.
With credit destruction the way it is, 1996 equity levels are well within the realm of possibility.
If I'm reading the 10-minute downtrend line on the SPY, DIA, & QQQQ correctly, we've just bounced off it and should be heading back down to test the lows anytime now.
Yes, but don't you dare say there's a recession because the economy actually grew in the first quarter. And don't you dare say there's a bear market, because it's not down 20% from its high and don't you dare say inflation because the rate isn't at whatever percentage because we get to exclude food and energy costs.
alamb: "I thought we were a Republic, a rule of Law."
That was only to keep you in line. We really have a Machiavellian Corporate Republic. If you think the rule of law matters, you are the "sucker at the table."
What we need to know re Israel vs Iran is what Iran is doing with its military. If I were the Iranian leader and thought Israel were going to attack me, I'd have my air assets mobilized and exercising and doing a massive buildup of Hezbollah in Lebanon. You don't just let another country come in and bomb you and do nothing. The USA sure didn't...
"my friend, the money supply IS shinking with no help from the Fed or the ECB, so exactly what is Trichet fighting?"
m4 in the uk and m3 in the eu has been increasing at double digit rates for years. and yes it is a FACT that the rest of the planet defines money supply differently from the USA. (the rest of the planet also has different definitions for inflation, growth, winning wars, human rights, and quality of life.)
Currently Smoking Cannabis writes:
alamb: "I thought we were a Republic, a rule of Law."
That was only to keep you in line. We really have a Machiavellian Corporate Republic. If you think the rule of law matters, you are the "sucker at the table."
I don't really think we have a Republic anymore, how can we when most of the populous doesn't even know what one is.
I just threw that out there because I get tired of the Democracy crap.
Arson Surges Across U.S. for Foreclosed Homes Lost to Subprime
It's not a crime. It's just financial engineering. Since your bond insurer isn't going to cover your losses on the damn thing, simple logic demands you find a property insurer who will.
Speaker 73:.... My cousin, who is a Battalion Fire Chief in Phoenix, also says that empty home arson is WAY up.
Everyone knows why, but there's not much the Department can do about it.
Phoenix may be the first part of the country to slip into an authentic Depression... state revenues are down about 13 percent overall, but corporate revenues I believe are down around 50 percent, year on year.
Oil and other commodity prices reflect both fundamental and speculative components. The FED argues that by slowing demands in the periphery the fundamentals will drive the currently high commodity prices lower. Speculative layers will then peel off. US consumers without the burden of high oil and food prices will consume again. Voila. Will see if the ROW complies.
alec
1996 is possible if this is a major bear market, in which case p/e will go to 10 while earnings decline. You have to admit that 5k on the dow would be a buy point.
Puerto Rico and Colombia completed the top three happiest nations. The world's wealthiest nation, the United States, was found to be the world's 16th happiest country, behind Switzerland, Canada and Sweden. Zimbabwe was found to be the least happy, with Russia and Iraq also in the bottom 10.
Now let's see how well the US can hold that #16 spot
Ministry of Truth says:
"Man seeks women, there are lots of cash jobs for women who work in real estate that do not show up in the employment reports."
"Roubini has it 100% right. Weakening economy + rising unemployment + financial system crisis == Rate cut next meeting. Bet on it."
I am, it will get worse the more they cut as more money flies out of the US and into commodities and other currencies and countries seeking higher returns. That is the prescription for going right into the Japanese rabbit hole and a deflationary spiral.
OT-Israel
While I think the odds are low that Israel will attack Iran, the precedent has been set when they attacked Iraq in the early eighties and also last year when they bombed Syria's alleged nuclear facilities. So twice before they have destroyed another sovereign countries nuclear facilities. Also, Syria and Iraq did not publicly (at least not that I am aware of) say they wanted to wipe Israel off the map, but Iran hasgiving Israel added incentive. And of course add Bush and his, IMHO, frat boy/texas cowboy attitude (what me worry?) into the equation and it seems that while low, the odds are real.
--
Americas Sick Economic System Fat and Ugly Job Growth
There has been job growth in the three areas while overall jobs have been lost over the past six months. These are: Education, Sickness Care, and Government. All these areas are very badly organized and managed in America.
America has created a very bad economic system, assisted by the Fed and the USG, over the past 25 years or so and all the problems were covered up by debt-driven consumption. It is payback time! It is going to be very UGLY. No way out of it.
I've had it with "inflation" versus "deflation". Credit contraction brings higher prices and slower growth/production. 'Stagflation' is the expected result after too much easy money. Why this surprised economists in the 70's is absurd to me.
I so hate to interrupt on a busy day. And I think we should resist the urge to post these sorts of historical perspectives-- but here is proof that since the late sixties (pre-closure of gold window, looks to me like '68) there have been trenchant calls for more (and better) coordination between central banks...so maybe it's a propos, even though I think it unlikely and am betting against it.
I don't think for a second think you believe that. We're having a few bad years its still the best economic system in the world. Put another way, whats better? Japan maybe?
CR: This being a holiday weekend and likely to be slow new-wise I would be very interested if you would solicit anecdotes from various parts of the country.
Here's mine: Last week, from a convenience store clerk in a warehouse district of South Seattle.
"The guys used to come in at lunch and get cash back, cash back; not any more. We are selling just a much food but it's gone from ribs to corndogs."
Question: What were "the guys" buying with the cash they got that they aren't buying now?
Holiday weekends are a great time for news as most people are not paying attention. Wonder why it was in the middle of the night on December 23 the federal reserve was created.
"GM may bring the production version of the Chevrolet Beat to the U.S., people familiar with the plan said. The car, which would normally be reserved for markets such as Asia and Latin America, gets as much as 40 miles a gallon, a fuel efficiency topped in the U.S. only by hybrids."
Let me get this straight. GM has a fuel efficient car but would not sell it in America. Now you can't blame them because until now Americans wouldn't have bought it even if it were available - OK maybe those dumb Corolla and Civic types might have, but who needs them.
Let's here it for $4.00 gas. It may have finally made us think. Those who want to lower gas prices (or taxes) are barking up the wrong tree.
It's Kool aid toxicity. On the way to DJIA 10,000 the markets will float and bounce between parabolic drops, while the feds and the MSM pep you up all the way down.
TJ writes:
"Rate cut next meeting. Bet on it."
I wouldn't bet a farm on it.
I agree with TJ, there's really no impetus to cut. They may well skip a rise, but why cut when the last cuts have had no real effect on credit availability?
"Let me get this straight. GM has a fuel efficient car but would not sell it in America. Now you can't blame them because until now Americans wouldn't have bought it even if it were available - OK maybe those dumb Corolla and Civic types might have, but who needs them."
Somebody would have -- the working poor families, who've been buying more Hyundais than ever lately, in my experience.
The real point is that the American car companies never figured out how to make a compact car at a decent profit margin, so they went all-out for the high-margin dino-cars. There always has been a market for cheap economy cars, they just chose not to try to serve it.
GM hasn't got the small car margins figured out yet, but they've got the names, based on their stock price: The Small Cap SD (single digit). As the stock drops they'll introduce the 5D ($5) model, then the 1D, then the DL (de-listed).
News flash from Treasury: Remarks of Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson contain the statement "To address the perception that some institutions are too big to fail, we must improve the tools at our disposal for facilitating the orderly failure of a large complex financial institution.
It is clear that some institutions, if they fail, can have a systemic impact, so we must give regulators the authorities to limit that impact and facilitate an orderly failure."
I use NVidia experimental cards in resarch here at my University.
This news is welcome to me, but I bet on AMD/ATI a few months back after AMD got clobbered over the bug & delay in the Barcelona (we had a couple of early experimental cores, but couldn't duplicate the bug). Sadly, AMD is down too, and it looks like NVidia warned on earnings - so that may be as responsible for the sell-off as the benchmarks.
GM ability to sell small cars at a profit would have required union concessions...only achievable when the company is really in dire straits. The SUV's cost only marginally more to produce, but the manufacturers were able to sell at a much higher price due to the "cool" factor. I recall some reports showing that profit margins on pickups were like $15k per vehicle.
Bob_in_MA said: "I agree with TJ, there's really no impetus to cut. They may well skip a rise, but why cut when the last cuts have had no real effect on credit availability?"
I would agree that there's no purely rational impetus to cut, and I personally think the Fed should just sit still and let its previous easings work their way through the system.
But weak employment and a falling stock market will increase the emotional and political pressure on the Fed to ease further anyway, and I think that one of these days we're going to see yet another easing, maybe even another "emergency", intermeeting one.
And again, not that I agree it's necessary, just that this is consistent with the Fed's "better safe than sorry now even if we're going to have to pay for it later on" pattern.
Jaw just hit the floor...AP story says
"After almost 15 months of its longest, deadliest, and most unconventional deployment, the 1st Battalion, 64th Armor Regiment of the US Army is packing up to leave Iraq. When it goes home to Fort Stewart, Ga., this month, the unit will be among the last to return from the "surge," Washington's move to calm the sectarian bloodshed that had consumed Baghdad and much of Iraq. In many regards, the plan worked."
Funny... I thought that troop levels were still above 130,000 (pre-surge levels). And that the current relative peace depends on 1)a shaky truce with the Madhi Army and 2) frequent cash payoffs to local milita to stay in line.
But for a given value of "work," your statement is true.
"But weak employment and a falling stock market will increase the emotional and political pressure on the Fed to ease further anyway, and I think that one of these days we're going to see yet another easing, maybe even another "emergency", intermeeting one."
There will be an emergency alright as this whole piece of crap comes tumbling down right after they do that. I can hardly wait.
The Thought Police (thinkpol in Newspeak) are the secret police of the novel Nineteen Eighty-Four whose job it is to uncover and punish thoughtcrime. The Thought Police use psychology and omnipresent surveillance to find and eliminate members of society who are capable of the mere thought of challenging ruling authority.
Orwell's Thought Police and their pursuit of thoughtcrime were based on the methods used by the totalitarian states and competing ideologies of the 20th century. It also had much to do with Orwell's own "power of facing unpleasant facts," as he called it, and his willingness to criticize prevailing ideas which brought him into conflict with others and their "smelly little orthodoxies." Although Orwell described himself as a democratic socialist, many other socialists (especially those who supported the communist branch of socialism) thought that his criticism of the Soviet Union under Stalin damaged the socialist cause.
The term "Thought Police," by extension, has come to refer to real or perceived enforcement of ideological correctness in any modern or historical contexts
Let's here it for $4.00 gas. It may have finally made us think. Those who want to lower gas prices (or taxes) are barking up the wrong tree.
Paul | 07.03.08 - 12:53 pm | #
Yup and we'll be thinking more and harder about all of this going forward...
Andrew posted this link a few threads back... worth reposting, reading & considering...
Perhaps I am lacking in imagination, but I see lower living standards for Americans an unavoidable outcome. We're seeing it now, via rising food and energy costs with stagnant wages. If you were to describe what ails this economy in its most fundamental terms, we have gone on a borrowing binge to support an unsustainable level of consumption. Merely having consumption fall to a healthier level would precipitate a slowdown. And that's before we get to the problem of "and what do we do with the debt hangover?"
We are all just dancing around the blindingly obvious.
barely writes:
Sebastian - I am still waiting for you to accept or reject the "$50 to the tip jar on a 2008 recession" wager. Well?
barely | 07.03.08 - 1:21 pm | #
hey Seb didn't mock turtle also challenge you to a trip to the tip jar, and you refused, by insulting him saying you wouldn't take the wager cause you thought MT would re-neg on his commitment
then to prove you wrong he hit the tip jar anyway and posted the donation page on the thread.
see Sebastian, this is part of the reason your prognostications have no currency here. part of the reaso
As the price of oil continues to rise, some are turning to God and prayer for an answer to their financial troubles.
The Pray at the Pump Movement, founded by Rocky Twyman, has been holding prayer vigils at gas stations across the country. On Monday, Twyman decided to take his movement from Exxon and Shell stations straight to the steps of the Embassy of Saudi Arabia in Washington, D.C., hoping to encourage the oil-rich country to raise the amount of barrels they release each day from 200,000 to 1.2 million.
We are all just dancing around the blindingly obvious.
The funny thing is when BMW/Daimler tramp around the Southeast looking for sites, no one seems to notice that the Germans are offshoring to the US (yes, we're the primary consumer). Wonder what the sentiment will be when the Chinese and the Indians start off-shoring in the US...
They turn to God to solve their problems when they lose faith in themselves and each other.
Weak minds. The day may come when people actually accept responsibility for their own lives and start doing something. That would be refreshing to see.
We're on the same page, nades. Should be interesting to see, participate in what develops; Earth Abides or post-big-box, post-builtup-desert of a know-your-neighbor community(ies).
The latter would be the better of the choices I've mentioned, (not to say there aren't others).
Maybe where the influence of our craven politicians comes in is in steering the "will of the peopleTM" toward a higher than 16th place on the list.
C&C, I was wondering what, exactly, they were praying for - another big rebate, fair rationing, better CAFE standards, lower speed limits, rational car use by Americans, or, as good Protestants, the grace to bear adversity patiently.
But instead, from the article, looks like they are begging God to soften the heart of Pharoah and get him to let his oil go.
As Reformed Protestantism often reminded us: "God sometimes answers prayers negatively." I think that concept has been lost in the US, where you are taught that anything you really really really want will be yours.
It looks to me that we have 140,000+ hostages being held in the middle east and that they will be held there for quite some time.
Iraq is still a nation divided. The only thing keeping the peace at this point are American troops and the Mahdi army taking a time out. How many years do we have to stay? The country is mostly Shiite. The Iraqi government has warm relations with a fellow Shiite country, Iran. Do we expect Iraq to turn into some kind of western style democracy and we'll leave or will they end up being more like Iran?
It doesn't matter how long we stay there, the place is full of Shiites and will continue to be full of Shiites with some minorities thrown in. I don't see them changing their way of thinking, ever.
It looks to me like GW is just trying to kick this can down the road and make someone else responsible for his failure.
And the people bowed and prayed
To the neon God they made.
And the sign flashed out its warning,
In the words that it was forming.
And the signs said, the words of the prophets
Are written on the subway walls
And tenement halls.
And whisperd in the sounds of silence.
Speed Racer, it's called Faith Based Nation Building. Or sumfing.
Once again, when The Shrub said "we don't do nation building" nobody listened. Nation Mangling, on the other hand, his Vulcans appear to be pretty good at.
RE: lower living standards. Pray tell what constitutes "higher" living standards? I-phones? No mass transit and many single occupant vehicles? 1000 calorie burrito bombs? 4000 sf 'homes' with kids on one side, parents on the other, and lots of graniteel, but no yard?
Seems like we could stand a little bit of lowering. Not that we have a choice, of course.
They better start praying up North, because the heating oil contract has a fifty-cent premium to gas in the friggin' summer! Needless to say (but I will anyway) this is normally the time when heating oil stocks build. People gonna freeze to death.
"Me, too. Monday or Tuesday would be nice, I'm getting a little bored with waiting.:)"
Sebastian
Me too the dollar will fall like a stone, commodity prices will shoot higher, long term rates will rise as inflation expectations increase dragging mortage rates higher with them putting any thought of a recovery in housing which is what has to stabalize before there can be any tought of a recovery in the rest of the economy to bed.
To make matters worse, programs for the indigent have been slashed or eliminated because of the states' fiscal crises. That on top of people already falling behind on utilities at record levels.
Not that we have a choice, of course.
People better start getting use to these scenarios; it's only gonna get worse.
Perhaps I am lacking in imagination, but I see lower living standards for Americans an unavoidable outcome.
If this happens, be prepared for a wave of populist anger over income distribution unlike anything we've had yet. I say that without stating a view as to whether the anger would be either justified or productive. I'm just saying that it will happen.
Well, IMO all the surge was supposed to do was calm things down. That happened. Anbar province has been handed over to Iraqi control.
Now, we tell the Iraqis we're pulling the rest of our troops out by January and let the chips fall where they will. It's up to the Iraqis to solve their own problems now.
They better start praying up North, because the heating oil contract has a fifty-cent premium to gas in the friggin' summer! Needless to say (but I will anyway) this is normally the time when heating oil stocks build. People gonna freeze to death.
Hopefully Hugo Chavez will do the same thing he tried last year and offer free heating oil to some of the indigent in this country.
It doesn't matter how long we stay there, the place is full of Shiites and will continue to be full of Shiites with some minorities thrown in. I don't see them changing their way of thinking, ever.
Sigh. One of the numerous things that irritates me about my fellow Americans is a rather serious lack of understanding the world around them. Most of the world's Shi'a (plural of Shi'ite is Shi'a) are in Iran. Iranians (formerly known as Persians) are, as a group, significantly more liberal, tolerant, and cosmopolitan than their Arab neighbors. They have been for millennia. Among other things, check out the number of women in the Majlis.
If this happens, be prepared for a wave of populist anger over income distribution unlike anything we've had yet. I say that without stating a view as to whether the anger would be either justified or productive. I'm just saying that it will happen.
Keep It Simple, I'm Stupid | Homepage | 07.03.08 - 3:04 pm | #
Yup - fully 100% agree. That is why I wish there was better discourse & exposure to root causes & not scapegoating.
Our consumption binge was NOT caused by one solitary factor over a short period of time - it is the result of many & convergent forces over a long period of time. The resultant solutions will also need to be multi-factor AND expect them to take time.
I'm as 'populist' as any one - coming from a rural liberal Midwest background - but even I know that populism is great for motivating the masses & exposing corruption - it rarely offers actionable solutions. I see this period being little different. Hopefully somebody will have actionable solutions & the tactical savvy to execute. The current crop sure don't posses it.
"To make matters worse, programs for the indigent have been slashed or eliminated because of the states' fiscal crises. That on top of people already falling behind on utilities at record levels."
I've never been to Scandinavia, but I've always assumed that they went with social welfare in a big way because if somebody went without shelter or fuel, well, they died. And you knew they were going to die. No way of fooling yourself otherwise.
Here in the states, well, it's a big country. People die out of sight; you can pretend it's not happening, because it's not happening to you or your friends. Or you can find some way to blame it on the die-ee.
But when it does start happening to your friends, and you all thought it could never happen to upstanding Americans like yourself -- well, that's when the new New Deal comes around.
I'm very confused by the brilliant folks here, yet again. I listened to everyone say that if Trichet raised rates the Euro was going to be worth $ 2.00 (or was it $ 3.00, there are too many #s here). But the Euro went down, even though oil went up. My brain is now officially sore.
"I'm as 'populist' as any one - coming from a rural liberal Midwest background - but even I know that populism is great for motivating the masses & exposing corruption - it rarely offers actionable solutions."
There's no question that a "reform" movement could go in the wrong direction. A Peron or a Huey Long instead of an FDR.
But when it does start happening to your friends, and you all thought it could never happen to upstanding Americans like yourself -- well, that's when the new New Deal comes around.
Reminds me of the GRID (Gay Related Immuno Deficiency), which no one ever really cared about, until it affected white hemophiliacs; then it became AIDS.
And speaking of incredidbly stupid things, Trichet raised today as widely expected.
Aye. I don't quite blame him, though. The ECB mandate is stupidly clear on the subject, thanks to German phobias. All the financial moralists cheering him on, though...tsk.
There's no question that a "reform" movement could go in the wrong direction. A Peron or a Huey Long instead of an FDR.
It would be nice if the really rich would realize that, in a country where the vote means something, FDR is the upside of what's coming down the pike, and they didn't even like him the last time around.
These ISM-N survey results, in my view should be treated like the consumer confidence figures, which keep goin down even as consumption growth re-accelerates. That's why don't think we actually have a decline in activity at the firms surveyed, rather more of an optimism erosion fueled largely by negative headlines in the financial press.
Also, my point re the surge was that this wasn't some blogger saying it worked; it was an AP wire story.
You have a multivariate equation here. What I am saying is change more than 1 variable and you don't know what fixed the problem.
Say your car is running like crap. You change the spark plugs, adjust the timing, fuel pump and fuel filter.
Start the car, it runs great. What fixed the car? You might have been able to fix it for a lot less money/time if you just changed out the spark plugs.
There's no question that a "reform" movement could go in the wrong direction. A Peron or a Huey Long instead of an FDR.
Bob Dobbs | Homepage | 07.03.08 - 3:23 pm | #
But you won't get FDR unless the populists make it happen. Milk toast doesn't force change prairie fire forces change. It always has.
"Bloomberg reports that a bankruptcy judge ruled against former top employees of failed subprime lender New Century Financial in Irvine, and they must share their savings with other creditors as a judge prepares to sign a formal confirmation order on July 14.
The affected employees high-earning managers and sales leaders, but not top executives were the last to object to the bankruptcy settlement, saying $43 million in a deferred compensation fund was in trust for them alone, reports Bloomberg. U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Kevin Carey disagreed. He used the so-called cramdown process to confirm the plan, after all other creditor classes approved it."
"Sigh. One of the numerous things that irritates me about my fellow Americans is a rather serious lack of understanding the world around them. Most of the world's Shi'a (plural of Shi'ite is Shi'a) are in Iran. Iranians (formerly known as Persians) are, as a group, significantly more liberal, tolerant, and cosmopolitan than their Arab neighbors. They have been for millennia. Among other things, check out the number of women in the Majlis."
One of the numerous things that irritates me about my fellow Americans is a rather serious lack of comprehension.
You realy jumped the rails on that one. If you haven't noticed, the U.S. has had rather poor relations with Iran for nearly 30 years now. There has been talk of economic sanctions and military action against Iran lately. Iran and Iraq look like they have much more in common with each other than they do with us. The president of Iran was warmly welcomed in Iraq not too long ago. So, say we declare victory in Iraq and pull out only to deliver Iraq into a partnership with Iran. Was that the intended outcome of our invasion of Iraq?
Something to consider regarding 'The Surge' & 'success'...
The surge worked just like the Christmas Bombing 'worked' to get Le Duc Tho back to the negotiating table - the current 'lull in the action' should be sufficient to 'justify' our exit with grace - peace with honor or something.
That is if we have the smarts to make use of this opportunity. I trust both candidates will jump all over it even if Bush isn't swift enough to get it yet. Hopefully that window will still be open after Jan 2009.
Then after we leave accounts will get settled - just like in Nam.
"GM may bring the production version of the Chevrolet Beat to the U.S., people familiar with the plan said. The car, which would normally be reserved for markets such as Asia and Latin America, gets as much as 40 miles a gallon, a fuel efficiency topped in the U.S. only by hybrids."
In Europe, Chevrolet sells the Matiz (ex-Daewoo) that gets 54.5 mpg in mixed driving.
Does anyone else find it odd that the dollar rallied today ... on news that the ECB raised their rate by 0.25%? I understand that the rate increase was already discounted into affected markets ..., but a dollar rally? Huh?
"i think sometimes poster here forget the Fed is acting for the aggregate good, no matter what status you have. and that's what democracy is about."
The Fed is not acting for the aggregate good. The Fed is acting in the best interests of it's shareholders.
ame caller writes:
Bush The Decider is now The Inflationator and Dollar destructionist, maybe the corruptigist and possibly the collusionaryist.
name caller | 07.03.08 - 11:15 am | #
Clearly crimes against the American people. Suggestions for punishment if found guilty? I'd be OK with something ala Vlad the Impaler. Maybe on the Mall. Lawn decorationator.
Awh shit.
oh for the love of ...first!
oh for the love of ...first!
Not fast enough, young grasshopper.
shame is upon me.
NEW YORK -
Deutsche Bank analyst Mike Mayo revised his second-quarter and 2008 estimates for Merrill Lynch & Co. Tuesday night, and now expects the investment bank to lose money because of larger-than-expected write-downs.
Mayo estimates Merrill Lynch will lose $1.91 per share in the second quarter, compared with a previous estimate for earnings of 87 cents per share. Mayo slashed his full-year estimate to a loss of $2.50 per share from projected profit of 25 cents per share.
Analysts have been slashing second-quarter estimates for Merrill Lynch in recent weeks. Analysts, on average, now expect Merrill Lynch to lose $1.50 per share, according to Thomson Financial. A month ago, the average estimate was for profit of 41 cents per share.
Tuesday morning Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Meredith Whitney also cut her estimates for Merrill Lynch. Like Mayo, Whitney expects Merrill Lynch to post losses in the second quarter and for the full year.
Merrill Lynch will likely take $5 billion in write-downs on various investment assets, Mayo wrote in a research note. Mayo said he expects Merrill Lynch to reduce the value of its collateralized debt obligations and both residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities.
Collateralized debt obligations are complex financial instruments that combine various slices of debt, and often include portions of mortgage-backed securities.
Merrill Lynch will also have to take write-downs tied to its exposure to bond insurers, Mayo wrote in the note.
Merrill Lynch, like other investment banks, has posted losses in recent quarters tied to the ongoing credit crisis and weakening values of certain investments like mortgage-backed securities.
As mortgages have increasingly defaulted over the past year, banks have been forced to slash the value of their holdings because investors have shied away from purchasing bonds backed by the troubled loans. Investors have also fled from other types of debt perceived as risky, sending the credit markets into a tailspin.
Mayo also cut his price target on the stock to $38 from $43, and maintained his "Hold" rating.
It just never ends, does it? I think the price "target" is in the wrong direction. It ought to be down toward $10 a share rather than up from here.
And telling people to "hold" the stock is a real gas.
I think it would be smart for everyone to step up to the confessional in July. There's no way to spin any of the news as good, so you may as well get the pain over with. Kind of like ripping off a band aid or jumping head first into a cold swimming pool.
Dollar drops 41% during Bush term while Bush keeps saying I'm for strong US dollar.
Another Bushism 'Up is dow
ISM non-factory employment index at a slight new low, prices paid at a whopping new high. Methinks they are pretty directly related. Offset costs of one kind with cuts of another.
These are probably an indicator of service-level comsumer pull-back and totally price related. But you know what this week is smelling like? Fear. I love the smell of fear. It's when people do incredibly stupid things. And if people didn't do incredibly stupid things, there would be no recovery.
And speaking of incredidbly stupid things, Trichet raised today as widely expected. Look for him to have to reverse course before year end as the Euro-zone grinds to a halt and contracts really fast, which by the way, the exactly what shouldn't happen now when you're fighting deflation. We have a staring contest between he and Bernanke. I'm betting Trichet will be forced to blink first.
"There's no way to spin any of the news as good"
Yep, slash the estimates, then when they beat them, rally.................
No component rose except prices and imports. The look under the hood is a bit uglier than the headline.
well, Trichet doesn't have a mandate to watch for economy. He only has to look at the price stability.
Unfortunately, stocks, corp. bonds and CDOs are not included in the consumer basket when evaluating inflation.
I am waiting for a day when someone says they should be.
Arson Surges Across U.S. for Foreclosed Homes Lost to Subprime
Arson Surges for Foreclosed Homes Lost to Subprime (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
The biggest surge of mortgage defaults in seven decades coincides with an increase in blazes in foreclosed properties led by states with the most repossessed homes, according to fire safety officials in Nevada, Massachusetts and Ohio.
well, Trichet doesn't have a mandate to watch for economy. He only has to look at the price stability.
I'd bet that his mandate also includes something about employment cause, you know, it's really hard to have stable prices with massive unemployment. And that's where they are headed because the more he raises, the more oil does and the more the system slows down. If the Fed had balls they'd cut and watch him squeal. Because, frankly at this point, we could be about .5 lower to head off the deflationary pressures but the dollar would crater. Better the Fed let's the ECB do the damage that's needed here.
Another Bushism 'Up is down' --km4
I've said this before, but the problem with Bush's malapropisms is that occasionally people take him at face value.
For instance, in that speech about the Ownership Society, he really mean to say Owership Society, wherein more people, (those who never had the capacity to owe very much,) got to owe more than they ever imagined.
Then there was that fly-in to the USS Lincoln. He told them he wanted a banner; "FUBAR Accomplished". Of course, everyone assumed he'd misspoken so they changed it to Mission...
Independence day rally is here but seems to have weak legs..No volume
NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) at 48.2%
StreetInsider.com -
Commodities Up in Price
Aircraft Fuel (2); Airfares (4); Aluminum Based Products (2); Appliances; Appliance Parts; Asphalt; Asphalt Construction; Asphalt Products; Auto Fuel; Bacon; Baked Goods; Bananas; Bath Tissue; Beef (4); Biomedical Waste Disposal Containers; Bread (2); Bubble Wrap; Car Rentals (3); Carbon Pipe -- Seamless; Carpet; Caustic Soda; Cereal; Cheese (2); Chicken; Copier Paper (5); Copper (2); Corrugated Packaging (2); Dairy; Deliveries; Diesel Fuel (9); #1 Diesel Fuel (2); #2 Diesel Fuel (2); Food and Beverage (2); Food Products (2); Freight Charges; Freight Fuel Surcharges; Freight Services; Fuel (17); Fuel Products; Fuel Surcharges (2); Fuel Transportation; Gasoline (10); Gasoline Related (2); Hotels; Medical Supplies (2); Natural Gas; Office and Computer Supplies; Oil Based Products (2); Paper (8); Paper Products (4); Pipe Fittings (2); Plastics (2); Plastic Base Resins; Plastic Can Liners; Plastic Films; Poly Bags; Polyethylene Resins; Roof Felt; Shipping Costs (4); Shipping Surcharges; Soft Drinks; Stainless Steel Products (2); Steel (4); Steel Conduit; Steel Driven Items; Steel Pipe and Fittings; Steel Plate; Steel Products (2); Transportation Costs (2); Transportation Services; and #10 Window Envelopes.
But the market is up up up...I think this means the all bad news are behind us and we are going to be fine from now on.
"Trichet raised today as widely expected. Look for him to have to reverse course before year end as the Euro-zone grinds to a halt and contracts really fast, which by the way, the exactly what shouldn't happen now when you're fighting deflation."
He isn't, Ben is. Raising rates there only make inflation worse for them and deflation worse for the US. Ben need to raise and Trichet needs to cut. The Dollar as the worlds reserve currency has them both f#cked. Japan did the same damn thing as Ben which launched the price of necessities for highly indebted consumers into orbit and gutted the rest of the economy which led to rising unemployment and stagnant wages.
yes a PERFECT recipe for a 100 point gain on the DOW.....
Too obvious to see.....
Ciao
MS
The effect of inflation to squeeze expenditures and thus reduce employment -- nasty. So much for "free trade" (actually China manipulated currency, etc, so it wasn't)....
Calc,
Do you have any ISM Services index comparison charts?
How my times has the index fallen below 50%?
Some good news:
U.S. mortgage rates drop for first time in four weeks.
The good news just keeps on rolling out.
No jobs = lower inflation.
Great time to buy stocks and houses.
Cheers,
Prices paid by non-manufacturing organizations for purchased materials and services increased in June for the 61st consecutive month. ISM's Non-Manufacturing Prices Index for June registered 84.5 percent, 7.5 percentage points higher than May's index of 77 percent. June's reading is the highest reading for the Prices Index since the Non-Manufacturing report began. In June, the percentage of respondents reporting higher prices is 72 percent, the percentage indicating no change in prices paid is 26 percent, and 2 percent of the respondents reported lower prices.
Oh yeah. I mean like could there be a better time to buy a house?
Look at the dollar go. Someone will tell them what rate hikes by Trichet mean next week.
"Look at the dollar go. Someone will tell them what rate hikes by Trichet mean next week. :)"
Holiday weekend in the US, a lot of games by CB's will be played but nothing fundamentally will have changed. Short Bucky!
"An auto analyst with JPMorgan says General Motors Corp. is not in danger of an imminent bankruptcy, but will need to raise about $10 billion in cash to weather the downturn in U.S. auto sales."
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Bwahahahahahaa!
Oh yeah, just $10B...in cash. Where's that gonna come from.
New Fed facility right around the bend.
Cheers,
Troubled Economy Hits Women Especially Hard
Our Apologies - 21 News Now, More Local News for Youngstown, Ohio -
"It looks like, this recession, women will also lose jobs ... because of the real estate crisis and the financial services crisis," Ms. Hartmann says. "Something like 142,000 women work in real estate compared to 42,000 men."
A recent Senate report found that the number of unemployed adult women increased by 20 percent from March 2007 to March 2008, compared with a 17 percent increase among adult men.
anon, the Fed does not need to raise and shouldn't in a strongly deflationary environment. we could be even lower, but we're constrained. the trick here is going to be in the timing. when can the fed raise without causing dislocation? and will Trichet's raise help us out by grinding the EU zone down and creating massive demand destruction for oil there too?
if i were a fed governor, i'd be playing the game of standing pat for a while and let others take action when the field position is unclear. sometimes standing still is an active movement. and great policy.
Man seeks women, there are lots of cash jobs for women who work in real estate that do not show up in the employment reports.
If the Fed had balls they'd cut and watch him squeal.
We'd be squealing even more. If the Fed dropped rates you would see mass panic out of the dollar. it would be, how do you say... disorderly?
I can't think of ANYBODY who wants the Fed to cut. Even the biggest corporate welfare folk want a hold.
I also disagree with another point.
The ECB should not drop rates while the fed raises.
The ECB should raise AND the Fed should raise more than the ECB (narrowing the differential).
Central banks are meaningless and symbolic of this global systemic failure
The ECB should raise AND the Fed should raise more than the ECB (narrowing the differential).
Bingo!
I can think of several I-banks that need to produce yield from somewhere. Widening spreads is the only way they will survive.
That being said they are not lending out that money they get from the Fed alphabet soup auctions....at some point they might. That's when the spreads will become important....but that's a long way off
Ciao
MS
US admiral warns Israel against opening Iran 'third front
US admiral warns Israel against opening Iran 'third front' |
News |
guardian.co.uk
Mullen featured in a recent Seymour Hersh piece in the New Yorker that said the White House had "significantly expanded" US special operations in Iran.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff, whose chairman is Admiral Mike Mullen, were 'pushing back very hard' against White House pressure to undertake a military strike against Iran, the person familiar with the Finding [presidential authorisation] told me.
yearning, absolutely not. there was an excellent article by evans-pritchard today that I totally agree with. The ECB needs to cut and the Fed needs to raise...but with exquisite care. this is NOT inflation. this is DEFLATION and it's big time...coupled with the mother of all credit squeezes. we need loose policy to deal with the credit issues, and then raises to stop inflation from exploding in any recovery phase.
remember it takes 12 to 18 months for central bank policy to take effect...what battle are we fighting here now? and in the future? you raise rates to shrink the money supply. my friend, the money supply IS shinking with no help from the Fed or the ECB, so exactly what is Trichet fighting? Oil prices? He raises and they rise. Inflation? There is no inflation, just price issues. Watch this unfold and then we'll discuss where I might be wrong. but from where i sit now, that is the analysis.
I think the dollar and Euro should be merged into one currency and that The Fed should join The ECB, then we should nuke China and take over the friggin world ...... moohahahahahahaha
When will the marketers get busy with this great unwinding. We need a name!
The Greater Depression? The Great Unwind?
I'm just calling it "it." It that we cannot name.
this is NOT inflation. this is DEFLATION and it's big time...coupled with the mother of all credit squeezes
I think too many people are "scared" of deflation. If we can speed it up, we can then get back to expanding the money supply that much sooner!
I think too many people are "scared" of deflation.
i'm not so sure everyone would like the unintended consequences of speeding it up. would you take being personally without a source of income or any wealth expansion for say, oh about a year to make this happen drew? how about your entire family and friends?
When will the marketers get busy with this great unwinding. We need a name! The Greater Depression? The Great Unwind?
Let's call it "El Cliffo."
snark
Hey I have a great idea. I am thinking of borrowing money at low short term rates and lending it out higher long term rates. How could I lose?
/snark
Bush The Decider is now The Inflationator and Dollar destructionist, maybe the corruptigist and possibly the collusionaryist.
Vacuum Headed Retards,
Seymour Hersh deserves respect for his investigative reporting on our criminal government's aggression toward the world.
It needs to be noted that he, and many others, have been predicting an attack on Iran by the U.S. & Israel (w/ assist from Turkey) since 2005. An attack does not make any sense strategically from my perspective, but what do I know?
Yearning to Learn writes:
I can't think of ANYBODY who wants the Fed to cut.
Ben. It's in his DNA.
would you take being personally without a source of income or any wealth expansion for say, oh about a year to make this happen drew? how about your entire family and friends?
Wouldn't bother me in the least, and I think that there would be countless opportunities to move forward in a positive way. Our society needs a serious wake up call, and keeping the current system intact is nothing more than maintaining the status quo: keeping the same crooks in power, and ensuring that the wealthy elite continue business as usual.
10 envelopes?
Must be increased demand due to all those late payment notices they have to send out.
The US:
. De-leveraging massive bad debts by banks
. Loose monetary policy by FED to save the banks and spur growth
. Effects are inflationary to the Rest of the World (ROW)
The ROW:
. Inflations are rampant
. Counter inflation by hiking rates
. Effects are slower growth
. Demands for commodities drop so will prices
Conclusion:
. Growth in US
. Slower growth in ROW
. The FED is forcing the ROW to slow economic growth by easy money policy
An attack does not make any sense strategically from my perspective, but what do I know?
It would be a military success and a strategic failure. IMO, the odds of it happening (either by the US or Israel) are very low.
Wouldn't bother me in the least
well drew i'm not. and i'm pretty sure that the VAST majority of americans are not either. so it's not an option for a government. but it might make good blog counterpoint.
i think sometimes poster here forget the Fed is acting for the aggregate good, no matter what status you have. and that's what democracy is about. so you'll have to sit back and watch this without your policy coming to effect. and thank god i must say because it would be massively destructive across asset classes. you say you don't care, but you would be squealing like mad if what you wished for happened. i'd rather not chance that.
Short day pump job is warming up for the long weekend.
It makes perfect sense.
Cheers,
ipodius writes:
i think sometimes poster here forget the Fed is acting for the aggregate good
I.E. The Banks
The ROW:
. Inflations are rampant
. Counter inflation by hiking rates
. Effects are slower growth
. Demands for commodities drop so will prices
The problem with that is as they raise rates the dollar falls and commodity prices rise more. Also more money pours into those countries seeking higher interest rates.
ipodius,
"i think sometimes poster here forget the Fed is acting for the aggregate good,"
Bwahahahahaha!
The aggregate good of the banksters only.
Bwahahahahaa!
Damn, that really did make me laugh.
Cheers,
Trichet is doing the right thing, keeping a mildly tight policy stance while providing liquidity to banks.
Birdbrain Bernanke did fine with the credit facilities and the rate cuts last fall, but is insane for his vastly accommodative policy, never should've lowered to 2%, should've raised 25bp his last crack. You can ameliorate some, but not all of the damage and there's only so many ponies to go around. The game was afoot last May, so it's not as if banks who had their shit together should be past the worst.
Credit destruction isn't normally a good thing, but in this case it is. The credit creation thru mass securitization was a toxic brew and lessons need to be learned in order to have a properly functioning economy going forward.
With credit destruction the way it is, 1996 equity levels are well within the realm of possibility.
i think sometimes poster here forget the Fed is acting for the aggregate good
Wow! Maybe if I was a bankster!
How about "The Great Containment"?
If I'm reading the 10-minute downtrend line on the SPY, DIA, & QQQQ correctly, we've just bounced off it and should be heading back down to test the lows anytime now.
Ipodius writes:
i think sometimes poster here forget the Fed is acting for the aggregate good, no matter what status you have. and that's what democracy is about.
I thought we were a Republic, a rule of Law.
Yes, but don't you dare say there's a recession because the economy actually grew in the first quarter. And don't you dare say there's a bear market, because it's not down 20% from its high and don't you dare say inflation because the rate isn't at whatever percentage because we get to exclude food and energy costs.
alamb: "I thought we were a Republic, a rule of Law."
That was only to keep you in line. We really have a Machiavellian Corporate Republic. If you think the rule of law matters, you are the "sucker at the table."
Now bend over and pay homage to your overlords.
What we need to know re Israel vs Iran is what Iran is doing with its military. If I were the Iranian leader and thought Israel were going to attack me, I'd have my air assets mobilized and exercising and doing a massive buildup of Hezbollah in Lebanon. You don't just let another country come in and bomb you and do nothing. The USA sure didn't...
OT - anyone else watching in amazement as regional banks continue to melt down?
Wish I still had my ZION $35 puts.
"my friend, the money supply IS shinking with no help from the Fed or the ECB, so exactly what is Trichet fighting?"
m4 in the uk and m3 in the eu has been increasing at double digit rates for years. and yes it is a FACT that the rest of the planet defines money supply differently from the USA. (the rest of the planet also has different definitions for inflation, growth, winning wars, human rights, and quality of life.)
Currently Smoking Cannabis writes:
alamb: "I thought we were a Republic, a rule of Law."
That was only to keep you in line. We really have a Machiavellian Corporate Republic. If you think the rule of law matters, you are the "sucker at the table."
I don't really think we have a Republic anymore, how can we when most of the populous doesn't even know what one is.
I just threw that out there because I get tired of the Democracy crap.
Bush keeps saying I'm for strong US dollar.
Yeah and I bet he always told his parents that he never got drunk or took drugs. LOL. Lying is a long term habit with the guy.
The Eurozone has been experiencing significant wage inflation, as opposed to the US; which is why Trichet needs to keep rates up. See Baltic Economy Watch
, Eastern Europe Economy Watch, and Euro Watch.
You know, I wouldn't mind seeing some inflation in human rights, peace, quality of life, etc;
Money supply, not so much.
Arson Surges Across U.S. for Foreclosed Homes Lost to Subprime
It's not a crime. It's just financial engineering. Since your bond insurer isn't going to cover your losses on the damn thing, simple logic demands you find a property insurer who will.
Et tu, Trichet?
ECB raises its rate. Now, BB has cornered himself in a tight spot.
Central banks are NOT cooperating with each other.
Roubini has it 100% right. Weakening economy + rising unemployment + financial system crisis == Rate cut next meeting. Bet on it.
A shill a day keeps the bear away.
Buy the Dow -- And Other Mega Caps - washingtonpost.com
Speaker 73:.... My cousin, who is a Battalion Fire Chief in Phoenix, also says that empty home arson is WAY up.
Everyone knows why, but there's not much the Department can do about it.
Phoenix may be the first part of the country to slip into an authentic Depression... state revenues are down about 13 percent overall, but corporate revenues I believe are down around 50 percent, year on year.
Oil and other commodity prices reflect both fundamental and speculative components. The FED argues that by slowing demands in the periphery the fundamentals will drive the currently high commodity prices lower. Speculative layers will then peel off. US consumers without the burden of high oil and food prices will consume again. Voila. Will see if the ROW complies.
alec
1996 is possible if this is a major bear market, in which case p/e will go to 10 while earnings decline. You have to admit that 5k on the dow would be a buy point.
Last Anon was me. Like it matters.
Denmark 'world's happiest nation'
BBC NEWS | Special Reports | Denmark 'world's happiest nation'
Puerto Rico and Colombia completed the top three happiest nations. The world's wealthiest nation, the United States, was found to be the world's 16th happiest country, behind Switzerland, Canada and Sweden. Zimbabwe was found to be the least happy, with Russia and Iraq also in the bottom 10.
Now let's see how well the US can hold that #16 spot
Ministry of Truth says:
"Man seeks women, there are lots of cash jobs for women who work in real estate that do not show up in the employment reports."
And far more respectable.
It looks like the damned PPT has resorted to the last bastion of scoundrels. What a pathetic display of crass flag waving!
Denmark 'world's happiest nation'
"Personal freedom is more important than money, the authors say"
Then HOW is it possible that America ended up as #16 on this list!!!???
I mean we're free, right? Right?
/sarcasm
They just got the day wrong.
At this point any further rate cut is not stimulative, merely palliative and should be discontinued.
Bad banks had their chance, now their estates need to be meted out.
Anyone see the article in the post on Lehman Brothers? This is the reason why I want to start an ultrashort index fund for the entire US.
Allan Sloan and Roddy Boyd - How Lehman Brothers Veered Off Course - washingtonpost.com
"Roubini has it 100% right. Weakening economy + rising unemployment + financial system crisis == Rate cut next meeting. Bet on it."
I am, it will get worse the more they cut as more money flies out of the US and into commodities and other currencies and countries seeking higher returns. That is the prescription for going right into the Japanese rabbit hole and a deflationary spiral.
"New foreclosures almost quadrupled in Los Angeles and doubled in Miami in the second quarter . . ." [read more at Bloomberg]
Whoopsie, looks like the Q's just farted.
Ugh.. why did I choose such a revolting image. Apologies everyone!
barely,
I'll bet you a nickel you're wrong!
(We'll actually I dont know but I sure hope you are!)
It's an interesting world we live in when a 4.5% nominal interest rate is considered "tight".
ECB cut, dollar's up....
I think we should think about the posibility that they will be as hard hit by this as we have been.
Property values in Spain, England, Ireland have grown much faster than in the US.
alamb: You sound as disgusted as I feel. Good luck to you.
I stick by my earlier comments on the rate front. As long as the 10-year is sub 4%, crude is going to $150.
Ben is going to learn you can't jawbone your way out of this crisis.
shit i miss read. they raised.
still the dollar is up... odd...
I'm be suprised that anyone wants to hold any equities or dollars over this weekend. FDIC might be pretty busy!
OT-Israel
While I think the odds are low that Israel will attack Iran, the precedent has been set when they attacked Iraq in the early eighties and also last year when they bombed Syria's alleged nuclear facilities. So twice before they have destroyed another sovereign countries nuclear facilities. Also, Syria and Iraq did not publicly (at least not that I am aware of) say they wanted to wipe Israel off the map, but Iran hasgiving Israel added incentive. And of course add Bush and his, IMHO, frat boy/texas cowboy attitude (what me worry?) into the equation and it seems that while low, the odds are real.
--
Americas Sick Economic System Fat and Ugly Job Growth
There has been job growth in the three areas while overall jobs have been lost over the past six months. These are: Education, Sickness Care, and Government. All these areas are very badly organized and managed in America.
America has created a very bad economic system, assisted by the Fed and the USG, over the past 25 years or so and all the problems were covered up by debt-driven consumption. It is payback time! It is going to be very UGLY. No way out of it.
Jas
I've had it with "inflation" versus "deflation". Credit contraction brings higher prices and slower growth/production. 'Stagflation' is the expected result after too much easy money. Why this surprised economists in the 70's is absurd to me.
I so hate to interrupt on a busy day. And I think we should resist the urge to post these sorts of historical perspectives-- but here is proof that since the late sixties (pre-closure of gold window, looks to me like '68) there have been trenchant calls for more (and better) coordination between central banks...so maybe it's a propos, even though I think it unlikely and am betting against it.
YouTube -
and please don't flame in light of the UE claims...I've been there myself, and will be there again before whole thaing is over.
Jas thats not fair:
America has created a very bad economic system
I don't think for a second think you believe that. We're having a few bad years its still the best economic system in the world. Put another way, whats better? Japan maybe?
"Rate cut next meeting. Bet on it."
I wouldn't bet a farm on it.
The Phillips curve breaks down when the inflation expectation become "unanchored."
In addition, the further transatlantic rate differential will encourage capital flight, which feeds the credit crunch.
Paulson says US economy set to strengthen
Paulson says US economy set to strengthen
i think the vatican has the best economic system
[nades writes:
shit i miss read. they raised.
still the dollar is up... odd...]
The dollar is up because the ECB only raised 25bps. Could have been 50.
Could have been 50.
Should have been 50.
"Paulson says US economy set to strengthen"
How many time is it now that pick one dumb ass or is bald faced liar said that now?
Rust Belt, Oil Patch and now Sun Stroke for the Las Vegas, Phoenix, California Central Valley 21st Century Okies.
Los Angeles - Las Vegas - Phoenix: the Bermuda Triangle of real estate.
Welcome to the twilight zone.
CR: This being a holiday weekend and likely to be slow new-wise I would be very interested if you would solicit anecdotes from various parts of the country.
Here's mine: Last week, from a convenience store clerk in a warehouse district of South Seattle.
"The guys used to come in at lunch and get cash back, cash back; not any more. We are selling just a much food but it's gone from ribs to corndogs."
Question: What were "the guys" buying with the cash they got that they aren't buying now?
Holiday weekends are a great time for news as most people are not paying attention. Wonder why it was in the middle of the night on December 23 the federal reserve was created.
barely, thanks....
I really expected a massive selloff today. Where is the support coming from???
Gavshire Hathaway,
Cause everything is priced in, we've hit bottom, and we're going back up!
Problems are solved....
Any tech nerds know about NVidia today?
(a 30% drop seems a bit much for a warning)
Is ATI pouring it on? I thought NVDA was the leader...
Off Topic - General Motors.
From Bloomberg:
GM May Sell Mini-Cars to Fuel-Conscious U.S. Buyers (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
"GM may bring the production version of the Chevrolet Beat to the U.S., people familiar with the plan said. The car, which would normally be reserved for markets such as Asia and Latin America, gets as much as 40 miles a gallon, a fuel efficiency topped in the U.S. only by hybrids."
Let me get this straight. GM has a fuel efficient car but would not sell it in America. Now you can't blame them because until now Americans wouldn't have bought it even if it were available - OK maybe those dumb Corolla and Civic types might have, but who needs them.
Let's here it for $4.00 gas. It may have finally made us think. Those who want to lower gas prices (or taxes) are barking up the wrong tree.
It's Kool aid toxicity. On the way to DJIA 10,000 the markets will float and bounce between parabolic drops, while the feds and the MSM pep you up all the way down.
TJ writes:
"Rate cut next meeting. Bet on it."
I wouldn't bet a farm on it.
I agree with TJ, there's really no impetus to cut. They may well skip a rise, but why cut when the last cuts have had no real effect on credit availability?
ow that the half day pump is officially
accomplished.......
Have great weekend!!!!!
Ciao
MS
"Let me get this straight. GM has a fuel efficient car but would not sell it in America. Now you can't blame them because until now Americans wouldn't have bought it even if it were available - OK maybe those dumb Corolla and Civic types might have, but who needs them."
Somebody would have -- the working poor families, who've been buying more Hyundais than ever lately, in my experience.
The real point is that the American car companies never figured out how to make a compact car at a decent profit margin, so they went all-out for the high-margin dino-cars. There always has been a market for cheap economy cars, they just chose not to try to serve it.
Google is closing its offices in Denver and Dallas...
Bush, Paulsen and BB "the US economy is strong"
GM hasn't got the small car margins figured out yet, but they've got the names, based on their stock price: The Small Cap SD (single digit). As the stock drops they'll introduce the 5D ($5) model, then the 1D, then the DL (de-listed).
News flash from Treasury: Remarks of Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson contain the statement "To address the perception that some institutions are too big to fail, we must improve the tools at our disposal for facilitating the orderly failure of a large complex financial institution.
It is clear that some institutions, if they fail, can have a systemic impact, so we must give regulators the authorities to limit that impact and facilitate an orderly failure."
Prepping the public for some big failures?
"Prepping the public for some big failures?"
No probably a good screwing would be more like it.
The dollar is rallying, someone please tell that to crude.
Nades -
I'm a techie and yes, there is news that ATI is fighting back:
Bad confirmation string
I use NVidia experimental cards in resarch here at my University.
This news is welcome to me, but I bet on AMD/ATI a few months back after AMD got clobbered over the bug & delay in the Barcelona (we had a couple of early experimental cores, but couldn't duplicate the bug). Sadly, AMD is down too, and it looks like NVidia warned on earnings - so that may be as responsible for the sell-off as the benchmarks.
speaker 73
Ben is going to learn you can't jawbone your way out of this crisis.
No but someone can smack him with the whole ass....????
GM ability to sell small cars at a profit would have required union concessions...only achievable when the company is really in dire straits. The SUV's cost only marginally more to produce, but the manufacturers were able to sell at a much higher price due to the "cool" factor. I recall some reports showing that profit margins on pickups were like $15k per vehicle.
Whoa! Wrong link!!!
Radeon HD 4870: Better Than GTX 260! : Introduction - Review Tom's Hardware
Bob_in_MA said: "I agree with TJ, there's really no impetus to cut. They may well skip a rise, but why cut when the last cuts have had no real effect on credit availability?"
I would agree that there's no purely rational impetus to cut, and I personally think the Fed should just sit still and let its previous easings work their way through the system.
But weak employment and a falling stock market will increase the emotional and political pressure on the Fed to ease further anyway, and I think that one of these days we're going to see yet another easing, maybe even another "emergency", intermeeting one.
And again, not that I agree it's necessary, just that this is consistent with the Fed's "better safe than sorry now even if we're going to have to pay for it later on" pattern.
Sebastia
Sebastian - I am still waiting for you to accept or reject the "$50 to the tip jar on a 2008 recession" wager. Well?
And again, not that I agree it's necessary
hmmmm
RE: Vacant home arson...Phoenix...the Detroit of the 21st century!
Can't wait for Halloween this year:) Of course in AZ and SoCal you can torch entire neighborhoods when the wind is right...not like cold Midwest.
barely, I think that bet will depend if Sebastian can pay the $50 on his credit card.
Jaw just hit the floor...AP story says
"After almost 15 months of its longest, deadliest, and most unconventional deployment, the 1st Battalion, 64th Armor Regiment of the US Army is packing up to leave Iraq. When it goes home to Fort Stewart, Ga., this month, the unit will be among the last to return from the "surge," Washington's move to calm the sectarian bloodshed that had consumed Baghdad and much of Iraq. In many regards, the plan worked."
Amazing...MSM admits the surge worked.
You don't just let another country come in and bomb you and do nothing. The USA sure didn't...
FOG | Homepage | 07.03.08 - 11:39 am | #
Yeah, we went and destroyed a country that wasn't even involved...
Scott thanks...
"Amazing...MSM admits the surge worked."
Funny... I thought that troop levels were still above 130,000 (pre-surge levels). And that the current relative peace depends on 1)a shaky truce with the Madhi Army and 2) frequent cash payoffs to local milita to stay in line.
But for a given value of "work," your statement is true.
Millions of truck drivers [India] go on strike to protest higher taxes and rising fuel bills.
Trade their trucks for a Chevrolet Beat!
We're having a few bad years its still the best economic system in the world. Put another way, whats better?
I'll take Norway and Canada for the block, Peter.
JPMorgan to Cut 10% of Europe Investment Banking Jobs
@ 1:10 :
Re: " facilitate an orderly failure'
Also See: "To Facilitate the Orderly Functioning of Financial Markets"
August 10, 2007
Economist's View: "To Facilitate the Orderly Functioning of Financial Markets"
These guys really do a heck of a job in helping failures!
Ode to Tanat:
Grow old along with me!
The best is yet to be.
The last of life, for which the first was made.
- - - -Robert Browning "'Rabbi Ben Ezra
$50 can buy 50 ABK!
km4 wrote
Dollar drops 41% during Bush term while Bush keeps saying I'm for strong US dollar.
Another Bushism 'Up is down'
km4 | 07.03.08 - 10:29 am |
km4 you are guilty of thought crime
i will be reporting you to george orwell
war is peace
freedom is slavery
ignorance is strength
@ mock turtle
Big Brother is watching you.
- George Orwell
During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.
- George Orwell
"But weak employment and a falling stock market will increase the emotional and political pressure on the Fed to ease further anyway, and I think that one of these days we're going to see yet another easing, maybe even another "emergency", intermeeting one."
There will be an emergency alright as this whole piece of crap comes tumbling down right after they do that. I can hardly wait.
Thought Police
The Thought Police (thinkpol in Newspeak) are the secret police of the novel Nineteen Eighty-Four whose job it is to uncover and punish thoughtcrime. The Thought Police use psychology and omnipresent surveillance to find and eliminate members of society who are capable of the mere thought of challenging ruling authority.
Orwell's Thought Police and their pursuit of thoughtcrime were based on the methods used by the totalitarian states and competing ideologies of the 20th century. It also had much to do with Orwell's own "power of facing unpleasant facts," as he called it, and his willingness to criticize prevailing ideas which brought him into conflict with others and their "smelly little orthodoxies." Although Orwell described himself as a democratic socialist, many other socialists (especially those who supported the communist branch of socialism) thought that his criticism of the Soviet Union under Stalin damaged the socialist cause.
The term "Thought Police," by extension, has come to refer to real or perceived enforcement of ideological correctness in any modern or historical contexts
Anonymous said: "...There will be an emergency alright as this whole piece of crap comes tumbling down right after they do that. I can hardly wait."
Me, too. Monday or Tuesday would be nice, I'm getting a little bored with waiting.
Sebastia
We're having a few bad years its still the best economic system in the world. Put another way, whats better?
...and therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls; ...
Ahh the good ol days
With no money in my pocket...
YouTube -
Drew- "I mean we're free, right? Right?"
Conjure Bag says, "Sure. You're free to say anything you want, so long as you do what you're told."
Anonymous Bosch I don't subscribe to decoupling and I'm sure America will fall from #1 but I just think now is not the time... Give 20+ years....
In the interim I'm working on my Hindi
Let's here it for $4.00 gas. It may have finally made us think. Those who want to lower gas prices (or taxes) are barking up the wrong tree.
Paul | 07.03.08 - 12:53 pm | #
Yup and we'll be thinking more and harder about all of this going forward...
Andrew posted this link a few threads back... worth reposting, reading & considering...
Tim Duy Gets It Right
Money quote lifted from Yves Smith @ naked capitalism:
Perhaps I am lacking in imagination, but I see lower living standards for Americans an unavoidable outcome. We're seeing it now, via rising food and energy costs with stagnant wages. If you were to describe what ails this economy in its most fundamental terms, we have gone on a borrowing binge to support an unsustainable level of consumption. Merely having consumption fall to a healthier level would precipitate a slowdown. And that's before we get to the problem of "and what do we do with the debt hangover?"
We are all just dancing around the blindingly obvious.
barely writes:
Sebastian - I am still waiting for you to accept or reject the "$50 to the tip jar on a 2008 recession" wager. Well?
barely | 07.03.08 - 1:21 pm | #
hey Seb didn't mock turtle also challenge you to a trip to the tip jar, and you refused, by insulting him saying you wouldn't take the wager cause you thought MT would re-neg on his commitment
then to prove you wrong he hit the tip jar anyway and posted the donation page on the thread.
see Sebastian, this is part of the reason your prognostications have no currency here. part of the reaso
dryfly- "We are all just dancing around the blindingly obvious."
Amen to that.
Not all of are dancing around it. Those at the bottom are feeling it now...
People think it wont effect them like subprime loans wouldnt effect alt-a etc....
as Anonymous Bosch says above: we're all connected....
As the price of oil continues to rise, some are turning to God and prayer for an answer to their financial troubles.
The Pray at the Pump Movement, founded by Rocky Twyman, has been holding prayer vigils at gas stations across the country. On Monday, Twyman decided to take his movement from Exxon and Shell stations straight to the steps of the Embassy of Saudi Arabia in Washington, D.C., hoping to encourage the oil-rich country to raise the amount of barrels they release each day from 200,000 to 1.2 million.
The page cannot be found
O-K! Think they may be disappointed.
We are all just dancing around the blindingly obvious.
The funny thing is when BMW/Daimler tramp around the Southeast looking for sites, no one seems to notice that the Germans are offshoring to the US (yes, we're the primary consumer). Wonder what the sentiment will be when the Chinese and the Indians start off-shoring in the US...
some are turning to God and prayer for an answer to their financial troubles.
The Pray at the Pump Movement, founded by Rocky Twyman, has been holding prayer vigils at gas stations across the country
ARRRRR
Turning to "god" is what got us into this mess...see the 2000 & 2004 election results.
crispy&cole correct me if I'm wrong but the person who won in 00 & 04 was much more a kin to the devil....
They turn to God to solve their problems when they lose faith in themselves and each other.
Weak minds. The day may come when people actually accept responsibility for their own lives and start doing something. That would be refreshing to see.
LOL!!
Great, we have a new common and universal alter to worship at! Abe Lincoln would dig this shit!
Re: The Pray at the Pump Movement,
We're on the same page, nades. Should be interesting to see, participate in what develops; Earth Abides or post-big-box, post-builtup-desert of a know-your-neighbor community(ies).
The latter would be the better of the choices I've mentioned, (not to say there aren't others).
Maybe where the influence of our craven politicians comes in is in steering the "will of the peopleTM" toward a higher than 16th place on the list.
C&C, I was wondering what, exactly, they were praying for - another big rebate, fair rationing, better CAFE standards, lower speed limits, rational car use by Americans, or, as good Protestants, the grace to bear adversity patiently.
But instead, from the article, looks like they are begging God to soften the heart of Pharoah and get him to let his oil go.
As Reformed Protestantism often reminded us: "God sometimes answers prayers negatively." I think that concept has been lost in the US, where you are taught that anything you really really really want will be yours.
"Amazing...MSM admits the surge worked."
What is the definition of success in Iraq?
It looks to me that we have 140,000+ hostages being held in the middle east and that they will be held there for quite some time.
Iraq is still a nation divided. The only thing keeping the peace at this point are American troops and the Mahdi army taking a time out. How many years do we have to stay? The country is mostly Shiite. The Iraqi government has warm relations with a fellow Shiite country, Iran. Do we expect Iraq to turn into some kind of western style democracy and we'll leave or will they end up being more like Iran?
It doesn't matter how long we stay there, the place is full of Shiites and will continue to be full of Shiites with some minorities thrown in. I don't see them changing their way of thinking, ever.
It looks to me like GW is just trying to kick this can down the road and make someone else responsible for his failure.
And the people bowed and prayed
To the neon God they made.
And the sign flashed out its warning,
In the words that it was forming.
And the signs said, the words of the prophets
Are written on the subway walls
And tenement halls.
And whisperd in the sounds of silence.
Hey, does anyone know what time Indymac bank closes today?
Speed Racer, it's called Faith Based Nation Building. Or sumfing.
Once again, when The Shrub said "we don't do nation building" nobody listened. Nation Mangling, on the other hand, his Vulcans appear to be pretty good at.
Debt hangover?
Hair of the dog. It always works for me. Hair of the dog.
TJ,
So you're sayin' you want to borrow my hedge clippers or what?
RE: lower living standards. Pray tell what constitutes "higher" living standards? I-phones? No mass transit and many single occupant vehicles? 1000 calorie burrito bombs? 4000 sf 'homes' with kids on one side, parents on the other, and lots of graniteel, but no yard?
Seems like we could stand a little bit of lowering. Not that we have a choice, of course.
Re: Pray for cheaper gasoline
They better start praying up North, because the heating oil contract has a fifty-cent premium to gas in the friggin' summer! Needless to say (but I will anyway) this is normally the time when heating oil stocks build. People gonna freeze to death.
"Me, too. Monday or Tuesday would be nice, I'm getting a little bored with waiting.:)"
Sebastian
Me too the dollar will fall like a stone, commodity prices will shoot higher, long term rates will rise as inflation expectations increase dragging mortage rates higher with them putting any thought of a recovery in housing which is what has to stabalize before there can be any tought of a recovery in the rest of the economy to bed.
Track Economic Index Trends and Graph Financial Industry Rates
People gonna freeze to death.
To make matters worse, programs for the indigent have been slashed or eliminated because of the states' fiscal crises. That on top of people already falling behind on utilities at record levels.
Not that we have a choice, of course.
People better start getting use to these scenarios; it's only gonna get worse.
Thread dies, not with a bang but a whimper. Hoping to be 30th up ahead.
manu06 said: "Hey, does anyone know what time Indymac bank closes today?"
Santa Monica branch said the lobby closes at %:00.
5:00
Washington's move to calm the sectarian bloodshed that had consumed Baghdad and much of Iraq. In many regards, the plan worked."
Amazing...MSM admits the surge worked.
FOG | Homepage | 07.03.08 - 1:28 pm | #
Ummm, is it the surge or the hundreds of millions in cash being doled out to the warlords to stop fighting?
Perhaps I am lacking in imagination, but I see lower living standards for Americans an unavoidable outcome.
If this happens, be prepared for a wave of populist anger over income distribution unlike anything we've had yet. I say that without stating a view as to whether the anger would be either justified or productive. I'm just saying that it will happen.
"TJ, So you're sayin' you want to borrow my hedge clippers or what?"
That's jolly nice of you. Can I also borrow your credit card?
Well, IMO all the surge was supposed to do was calm things down. That happened. Anbar province has been handed over to Iraqi control.
Now, we tell the Iraqis we're pulling the rest of our troops out by January and let the chips fall where they will. It's up to the Iraqis to solve their own problems now.
Anonymouse writes:
Re: Pray for cheaper gasoline
They better start praying up North, because the heating oil contract has a fifty-cent premium to gas in the friggin' summer! Needless to say (but I will anyway) this is normally the time when heating oil stocks build. People gonna freeze to death.
Hopefully Hugo Chavez will do the same thing he tried last year and offer free heating oil to some of the indigent in this country.
Also, my point re the surge was that this wasn't some blogger saying it worked; it was an AP wire story.
It doesn't matter how long we stay there, the place is full of Shiites and will continue to be full of Shiites with some minorities thrown in. I don't see them changing their way of thinking, ever.
Sigh. One of the numerous things that irritates me about my fellow Americans is a rather serious lack of understanding the world around them. Most of the world's Shi'a (plural of Shi'ite is Shi'a) are in Iran. Iranians (formerly known as Persians) are, as a group, significantly more liberal, tolerant, and cosmopolitan than their Arab neighbors. They have been for millennia. Among other things, check out the number of women in the Majlis.
If this happens, be prepared for a wave of populist anger over income distribution unlike anything we've had yet. I say that without stating a view as to whether the anger would be either justified or productive. I'm just saying that it will happen.
Keep It Simple, I'm Stupid | Homepage | 07.03.08 - 3:04 pm | #
Yup - fully 100% agree. That is why I wish there was better discourse & exposure to root causes & not scapegoating.
Our consumption binge was NOT caused by one solitary factor over a short period of time - it is the result of many & convergent forces over a long period of time. The resultant solutions will also need to be multi-factor AND expect them to take time.
I'm as 'populist' as any one - coming from a rural liberal Midwest background - but even I know that populism is great for motivating the masses & exposing corruption - it rarely offers actionable solutions. I see this period being little different. Hopefully somebody will have actionable solutions & the tactical savvy to execute. The current crop sure don't posses it.
"To make matters worse, programs for the indigent have been slashed or eliminated because of the states' fiscal crises. That on top of people already falling behind on utilities at record levels."
I've never been to Scandinavia, but I've always assumed that they went with social welfare in a big way because if somebody went without shelter or fuel, well, they died. And you knew they were going to die. No way of fooling yourself otherwise.
Here in the states, well, it's a big country. People die out of sight; you can pretend it's not happening, because it's not happening to you or your friends. Or you can find some way to blame it on the die-ee.
But when it does start happening to your friends, and you all thought it could never happen to upstanding Americans like yourself -- well, that's when the new New Deal comes around.
I'm very confused by the brilliant folks here, yet again. I listened to everyone say that if Trichet raised rates the Euro was going to be worth $ 2.00 (or was it $ 3.00, there are too many #s here). But the Euro went down, even though oil went up. My brain is now officially sore.
PV=nRT
PV=nRT
PV=nRT
There now I feel better.
Yearning to Learn writes:
I also disagree with another point.
The ECB should not drop rates while the fed raises.
The ECB should raise AND the Fed should raise more than the ECB (narrowing the differential).
Amen to that.
If the Fed cuts again, just short the Dow on down to 7500 or so.
"I'm as 'populist' as any one - coming from a rural liberal Midwest background - but even I know that populism is great for motivating the masses & exposing corruption - it rarely offers actionable solutions."
There's no question that a "reform" movement could go in the wrong direction. A Peron or a Huey Long instead of an FDR.
But when it does start happening to your friends, and you all thought it could never happen to upstanding Americans like yourself -- well, that's when the new New Deal comes around.
Reminds me of the GRID (Gay Related Immuno Deficiency), which no one ever really cared about, until it affected white hemophiliacs; then it became AIDS.
ipod,
And speaking of incredidbly stupid things, Trichet raised today as widely expected.
Aye. I don't quite blame him, though. The ECB mandate is stupidly clear on the subject, thanks to German phobias. All the financial moralists cheering him on, though...tsk.
There's no question that a "reform" movement could go in the wrong direction. A Peron or a Huey Long instead of an FDR.
It would be nice if the really rich would realize that, in a country where the vote means something, FDR is the upside of what's coming down the pike, and they didn't even like him the last time around.
During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.
- George Orwell
Modern Version:
During times of universal deceit,
telling the truth becomes an
act of racism.
These ISM-N survey results, in my view should be treated like the consumer confidence figures, which keep goin down even as consumption growth re-accelerates. That's why don't think we actually have a decline in activity at the firms surveyed, rather more of an optimism erosion fueled largely by negative headlines in the financial press.
FOG writes:
Also, my point re the surge was that this wasn't some blogger saying it worked; it was an AP wire story.
You have a multivariate equation here. What I am saying is change more than 1 variable and you don't know what fixed the problem.
Say your car is running like crap. You change the spark plugs, adjust the timing, fuel pump and fuel filter.
Start the car, it runs great. What fixed the car? You might have been able to fix it for a lot less money/time if you just changed out the spark plugs.
Don't be silly.
The sky can't fa
There's no question that a "reform" movement could go in the wrong direction. A Peron or a Huey Long instead of an FDR.
Bob Dobbs | Homepage | 07.03.08 - 3:23 pm | #
But you won't get FDR unless the populists make it happen. Milk toast doesn't force change prairie fire forces change. It always has.
"Bloomberg reports that a bankruptcy judge ruled against former top employees of failed subprime lender New Century Financial in Irvine, and they must share their savings with other creditors as a judge prepares to sign a formal confirmation order on July 14.
The affected employees high-earning managers and sales leaders, but not top executives were the last to object to the bankruptcy settlement, saying $43 million in a deferred compensation fund was in trust for them alone, reports Bloomberg. U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Kevin Carey disagreed. He used the so-called cramdown process to confirm the plan, after all other creditor classes approved it."
Sounds about right...
"Sigh. One of the numerous things that irritates me about my fellow Americans is a rather serious lack of understanding the world around them. Most of the world's Shi'a (plural of Shi'ite is Shi'a) are in Iran. Iranians (formerly known as Persians) are, as a group, significantly more liberal, tolerant, and cosmopolitan than their Arab neighbors. They have been for millennia. Among other things, check out the number of women in the Majlis."
One of the numerous things that irritates me about my fellow Americans is a rather serious lack of comprehension.
You realy jumped the rails on that one. If you haven't noticed, the U.S. has had rather poor relations with Iran for nearly 30 years now. There has been talk of economic sanctions and military action against Iran lately. Iran and Iraq look like they have much more in common with each other than they do with us. The president of Iran was warmly welcomed in Iraq not too long ago. So, say we declare victory in Iraq and pull out only to deliver Iraq into a partnership with Iran. Was that the intended outcome of our invasion of Iraq?
Something to consider regarding 'The Surge' & 'success'...
The surge worked just like the Christmas Bombing 'worked' to get Le Duc Tho back to the negotiating table - the current 'lull in the action' should be sufficient to 'justify' our exit with grace - peace with honor or something.
That is if we have the smarts to make use of this opportunity. I trust both candidates will jump all over it even if Bush isn't swift enough to get it yet. Hopefully that window will still be open after Jan 2009.
Then after we leave accounts will get settled - just like in Nam.
dryfly...that is what I had in mind...eloquently put.
We may need some historical distance to know whether or not the surge "worked". We don't need to wait to see the results of Bush's splurge however.
From Bloomberg:
Bloomberg.com refer=home
"GM may bring the production version of the Chevrolet Beat to the U.S., people familiar with the plan said. The car, which would normally be reserved for markets such as Asia and Latin America, gets as much as 40 miles a gallon, a fuel efficiency topped in the U.S. only by hybrids."
In Europe, Chevrolet sells the Matiz (ex-Daewoo) that gets 54.5 mpg in mixed driving.
Does anyone else find it odd that the dollar rallied today ... on news that the ECB raised their rate by 0.25%? I understand that the rate increase was already discounted into affected markets ..., but a dollar rally? Huh?
"i think sometimes poster here forget the Fed is acting for the aggregate good, no matter what status you have. and that's what democracy is about."
The Fed is not acting for the aggregate good. The Fed is acting in the best interests of it's shareholders.
ame caller writes:
Bush The Decider is now The Inflationator and Dollar destructionist, maybe the corruptigist and possibly the collusionaryist.
name caller | 07.03.08 - 11:15 am | #
Clearly crimes against the American people. Suggestions for punishment if found guilty? I'd be OK with something ala Vlad the Impaler. Maybe on the Mall. Lawn decorationator.
We have anecdotal evidence that men on the financial edge have stopped buying things like clothes.