Holy it!

barely,

I value your contributions, but I think you're the only one who cares about the election. The collapse of our economy is so much more engaging!

CR: "...I don't know enough about the details to comment..."

So what; that does not stop the rest of us. Please, speculate!

Aw, TCA; just put some small amount of money in shorting SSO. No need to do such on margin.

The end is near: earnings disappointments for Q2, earnings warnings for Q3/Q4, implosion of a bank or two, declaration by NBER BCDC of 'Recession is on.' All happening this summer and fall.

This is going to be easy money, the market tanking and your short SSO bet reaping dividends.

Judging by what happened in Canada - back in the day...

In 1993, support for the Progressive Conservative Party collapsed, and the party's representation in the House of Commons dropped from an absolute majority of seats to only two seats. The 1993 results were the worst electoral disaster in Canadian history, and the Progressive Conservatives never fully recovered.

TCA, Unfortunately I don't think any of us has much choice about violating Buffett's rule. Death by a thousand cuts. SRS is the only short I'm really in now, though I wish I'd held my SKF until today, for sure. Are you near retirement age? Most friends who are shorting are on the younger side (30's, as I am).

"both Fannie and Freddie largely qualified for so-called “de-recognition” — that is, for off-balance sheet treatment"

One can only hope!!! If the truth be known........It's a Market in itself.

"all my retirement funds in Vanguard's Treasury Money Market Fund"

Long bonds could be the biggest bubble left. Even if they don't tank because of inflation I am certain that after all the flavors in the bailout-flavor-of-the-month have been meted out real returns from bonds will be horrendous.

TCA - i am with you. Am just holding inverse ETF shorts in TWM & SRS that were established a while back and haven't added to them even when they were really compelling about a month ago.

Also completely out of oil and gold stocks but have bought and added to physical gold and silver.

Systemic risk is really real at this point in time imho and i have no interest in "playing" anymore.

Once i take off the ETF shorts i probably will take all cash out of these stock markets for the forseeable future.

Good Luck!

We have Janet Yellen, not Mr. Schiff, Mr. Greenberg or Mr. Schiller, saying housing prices will continue to fall.

I would never put Peter Schiff in the same company as Robert Schiller.

welcome to the parking area TCA

mp,

"I guess it's time to call..."

Ghostbusters!

These walking corpses need to be rounded up and put in the containment field.

Cheers,

Sock it to me baby!!

@I just can't take the swings in these ETFs, nor the risk of losing it all in a counterparty default as jg has pointed out as a possibility.

I hear you. I've been short with only a very small percentage of nw, and I went in prepared to have my ass handed to me.

Mr. Yield Curve was not trying to demean Mr. Schiller only pointing out that a continued fall in home prices is now mainstream. Its the operating assumption of the Federal Reserve.

My point is the GSE financing models don't reflect a continuing decline of 15-20% in home prices next year and they certainly don't reflect the rise in energy costs a homeowner, particularly a new homeowner with no capital left, is going to be facing.

If the GSE's are letting people buy a house without a substantial cushion of income and equity they are probably going to see a lot of what would have been solid buyers defaulting in the coming situation.
Marginal ones almost surely will.

I wonder what Jumbo rates and even conforming 30s are going to do. Should do a lot to support house prices LOL!

I did my homework and both these clowns are zeros.

i just flashed on these unemployed mortgage workers and realtors as zombies ala 'night of the living dead'. They come after you if there's the slightest hint you're thinking about buying a house.

i wonder how long before the 'zombies' move along to other occupations?

Some other interesting news :-
Iraq Wants Timetable for Troop Exit
Iraq Wants Timetable for Troop Exit - TIME

It was the first time that Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has explicitly and publicly called for a withdrawal timetable — an idea opposed by President Bush.

Remember this one from earlier this year? Jim making on the confessional, kinda of
Video - CNBC.com

Chopper One - Jim Cramer isn't qualified in his own field. Just pure entertainment value. Like Bozo The Clown.

Actual conversation with a realtor last weekend:

REALTOR: There sure is a lot of inventory this summer!

ME: Yeah, plus it's harder to get a loan.

REALTOR: So if you qualify, it's a great time to buy! Good selection!

ME: Well, if inventory is up but demand is down, doesn't that mean prices are falling too?

REALTOR: Yes, but that makes it an even BETTER time to buy! Prices reduced!

ME: But if I buy now, I'll be sitting on negative equity in less than a year. Right?

(crickets chirping)

"I pulled every single cent out this year. I will be paying 52% to the Feds and CA for such."

That's a big hit, but I'd do it if I thought it was necessary. Unfortunately, I still work for the company and can't withdraw funds unless I quit :^(

Munis will be blowing up left and right soon, Alec. The Jefferson County default is just postponed, not averted.

TCA, I looked into ACT and gold. The problem is if you think that the Dems will outlaw the holding of gold (as FDR did in '33), you will be in a world of hurt.

The ACT option that I liked was their overseas bank account option, i.e., hold gold in Switzerland. The only trick is that your funds are still subject to U.S. law, as they are in the form of an IRA, with ACT as the 'custodian.' Hence, in the case of an 'IRA mandate,' ACT will direct your overseas bank to move your money into 'Depression Recovery Bonds.'

I want my funds outside of the hands of the Feds. I do not want to be forced to hold Treasuries.

Heh, I second what you said, Troy.

theyieldcurve,

Oh I agree Cramer is the "Crazy Guy" on CNBC, I almost forgot about that flip-flop. But, it is funny to see the court jester reveal his role and try to act like the doomsayer. It's also funny to note that most of the banks he mentions as safe, aren't lookin so safe anymore. But, hey that's par for the course

The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA), the American Securitization Forum (ASF) and the European Securitsation Forum (ESF) today announced that they have formed a global, joint working group that will create and publish actionable, industry-developed recommendations designed to help revitalize the securitization and structured credit markets, and bolster investor and broader public confidence in those markets.

SIFMA News

I'm confident that these ass wipes want to separate you from your money.

Exit,

"That WSJ article is a hoot, isn't it?"

Until you realize that such studies are paid with tax dollars. Becomes unfunny then...IMHO.

Cheers,

"Meanwhile, Hurricane Bertha strengthens to a Cat 3 storm in the Atlantic. Must have skipped "Ben" this time around. Oh - wait - that designation has already been taken."

I can see it now: Hurricane damage to foreclosed homes in the billions $$$.

There will be nobody to board up the windows in advance of storms.

"You're doing a heck of a job, Benny"

Exit,

"I pity the kid's toy that got in the way of your blades."

Actually. The family planted sapplings in the front yard. I ran over my sisters. She was quite upset about it.

Cheers,

We have a general condition, where the public has paranoia, due to the associated fact that we have psychotic bankers, financial engineers and members of SIFMA that should all be in jail cuddling up with each other for late night risk.

"Restrictions, administrative costs and red-tape will see the program reach only about $68 billion worth of the $300 billion worth of mortgages that it is authorized to handle, according to the CBO."

The rest will go for fraud, theft, campaign contributions, liquor, prostitutes, and stock buybacks to enrich insiders. Nothing to see here.

First! Yeah! Finally got it! It's mine. Numero Uno!

Retirement accounts have some strong support, though:

1. Old folks would hammer anyone foolish enough to try raiding their retirement accounts. Think about somebody who is 62.4 years old and has spent the last five years planning their retirement in loving detail. Announcing overnight that they will now have to keep working until 70 would send them around the bend. We're talking rifle on the clock tower levels of rage here.
2. De-incentivizing retirement accounts would trigger massive broad-based selling, both by panic and by rebalancing, and therefore be accompanied by a sudden, deep price decline. The resulting mark-to-market bloodbath would be equivalent to allowing dozens of Bear Stearns to collapse at the same time. This seems improbably.
3. Confiscation of retirement accounts AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN. Retirement accounts have a net controlling interest in many, many companies. Confiscation would give the feds voting control of a big swath of corporate America. Their lobbyists will NOT take that sitting down.

You were having tampons for dinner?

TCA , I understand your desire to stay out of shorting. As much as I believe in shorting, it is a stressfull way of making money and subject to third party risk. My hat is off to all the shorters.

I will probably try my hand soon as I just got some play money. In the mean time, I am into vanguard's money market and real cash. I took out a loan and am paying myself 6%. This way, I have a little safety with cash on hand, in my bank, and in a broker. At least this way, I am under the limits everywhere. Yes, I have to pay 6% to myself but I sure as heck will not earn 6% in a money market or bonds.

Volatility on Wall Street, as measured by the Chicago Board Options Exchange's volatility index, on Monday briefly hit its highest point since March, when worries about the financial markets peaked during the buyout of Bear Stearns Cos.

"It indicates that there was more fear entering the market than there had been in previous weeks," said Todd Salamone, director of trading and vice president of research at Schaeffer's Investment Research.

Fannie Mae fell $3.04, or 16.2 percent, to $15.74 and Freddie Mac fell $2.59, or 17.9 percent, to $11.91, after Lehman Brothers analysts said new accounting rules could require Fannie to raise $46 billion more capital and Freddie to raise $29 billion.

"[Maybe t]hese securities really ARE constructed in such a way that defaults would have little effect upon the GSEs."

If that were the case, these securities wouldn't inherit daddy's ratings and thus would be trading at dimes on the dollar like the other MBSs out there.

Or am I giving S&P/Fitch/Moody's too much credit?

sysin3, Translation: "It's irresponsible to point out the stuff we've tried to hide for so long."

Yep. Jamie Dimon, in his Charlie Rose interview, actually said it ought to be CRIMINAL to point out the truth, as in, truthsayers should be sent to JAIL.

He calls truthsayers "LIARS" and blames them for Bear Sterns blow up.

Pathetic and disgusting.

LOL @Maybe you should consider reinforcing your roof and never leaving your basement.