Just hitting the wires, May pending home sales fell 4.7%, compared to the expected decline of 2.8%. Separately, wholesale inventories rose 0.8%, which is slightly more than the consensus estimate that called for growth of 0.6%.
I live in Seattle, and let me tell you -- For sale signs are popping up all over the place. I've never seen so many properties for sale. So far we've seen minimal price drops, but I think people are finally figuring out what's happening. First we'll see a panic wave of people trying to sell ahead of the curve. Inventories rise, prices fall, and pretty soon we have a major problem...
Another person I know -- mid 20's, employed, wealthy family -- was just complaining that she wants to buy a 25k boat, but she can't get a loan. Have lenders figured it out? Brunswick must be screwed...
I was down by Alki last night and it was rediculous. Sale signs all over the place. They continued through West Seattle. I also drive through Mercer Island frequently and I've see a bunch -- somewhat surprising given that I'd expect most people there to buy and hold.
I live in Houston now. Culture shock. Real estate here has its own idiosyncracies (and foibles). I never discussed real estate with friends up there since it seems to be as verboten as religion and politics. Down here, well, I don't talk religion and politics.
john stark writes: "The overall decline in contract signings suggests we are not out of the woods by any means," said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, in a statement.
Is this the first time he's suggested that we are in the woods?
Mark this moment! A think ray of OMGWTF penetrates the canopy of Surrealty Forest. I think the beating that they were taking in the press for their Panglossian worldview has finally sunk in. It is one thing to be mocked in the blogosphere, but another thing entirely to be ridiculed in the MSM Papers On the Breakfast Table.
The data is a sample of the MLS and "60 large brokers". It says it is 50% of the EHS (existing home sales?) sample or 20% of all transactions. I suppose the total (100%) would include new homes and mutifamily up to four units?
In any case, I wonder if small brokers and non-MLS sales are falling more than the components included in the sample. It might be interesting to track whether the PHSI is losing some of its predictive power in a down market, similar to the MBA survey.
"The overall decline in contract signings suggests we are not out of the woods by any means," said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist.
Yun said that some pullback had been expected after April's surprise increase. The index jumped more than 7% in April as falling home prices sparked a bout of bargain shopping.
"The housing market had a nice bounce in April - too bad it doesn't appear to have carried through into May and June," said Mike Larson, real estate analyst at Weiss Research.
"Yun said that some pullback had been expected after April's surprise increase".
Well if he expected a pullback, then why did he say this last month: "A modest gain in the level of home sales is possible over the next couple months,"
why does a "very slight" recession feel so awful?
From a Yahoo Finance blurb:
Just hitting the wires, May pending home sales fell 4.7%, compared to the expected decline of 2.8%. Separately, wholesale inventories rose 0.8%, which is slightly more than the consensus estimate that called for growth of 0.6%.
What does that mean for months of supply?
They must have released this without Yun's knowledge or approval.
The real number is up 3.6%.
The spring that wasn't.
that is a month to month decline. ouch.
I live in Seattle, and let me tell you -- For sale signs are popping up all over the place. I've never seen so many properties for sale. So far we've seen minimal price drops, but I think people are finally figuring out what's happening. First we'll see a panic wave of people trying to sell ahead of the curve. Inventories rise, prices fall, and pretty soon we have a major problem...
Another person I know -- mid 20's, employed, wealthy family -- was just complaining that she wants to buy a 25k boat, but she can't get a loan. Have lenders figured it out? Brunswick must be screwed...
IMB -40%
What a kick in the teeth!
Anecdotally, this seems really low. There are a gazillion properties for sale in the 'burbs where I live. Seems to grow exponentially.
What a mess.
Where do you live Doofus?
Ah, can you smell that. It is summer selling season.
Brunswick must be screwed...
Down about 66% to ~$10 since June 07.
These numbers are very bullish given the current economic conditions.
So what happened to the Iraqi Minister of Information under Saddam?
Can the same happen to Yun?
OT
Michael Vick just declared bankruptcy. lol. Somehow I have no sympathy.
Gavshire ,
What part of Seattle? City limits? East Side? The boondocks (I lived in Sammamish)? Just curious.
I was down by Alki last night and it was rediculous. Sale signs all over the place. They continued through West Seattle. I also drive through Mercer Island frequently and I've see a bunch -- somewhat surprising given that I'd expect most people there to buy and hold.
How is it in your neck of the woods?
"The overall decline in contract signings suggests we are not out of the woods by any means," said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, in a statement.
Is this the first time he's suggested that we are in the woods?
why does a "very slight" recession feel so awful?
Not as awful as the "very slight" depression will feel.
she wants to buy a 25k boat, but she can't get a loan. Have lenders figured it out?
The main companies that used to finance all types of RVs stopped a couple months ago.
That's okay... a little cash'll buy any kind of boat on EBay before too long.
I live in Houston now. Culture shock. Real estate here has its own idiosyncracies (and foibles). I never discussed real estate with friends up there since it seems to be as verboten as religion and politics. Down here, well, I don't talk religion and politics.
So what will there be a better selling market for... houses, or gigantic RV's?
john stark writes:
"The overall decline in contract signings suggests we are not out of the woods by any means," said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, in a statement.
Is this the first time he's suggested that we are in the woods?
Mark this moment! A think ray of OMGWTF penetrates the canopy of Surrealty Forest. I think the beating that they were taking in the press for their Panglossian worldview has finally sunk in. It is one thing to be mocked in the blogosphere, but another thing entirely to be ridiculed in the MSM Papers On the Breakfast Table.
CR,
This PHSI might be a good candidate for more analysis and investigation. The details on PHSI calculation are here:
Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)
The data is a sample of the MLS and "60 large brokers". It says it is 50% of the EHS (existing home sales?) sample or 20% of all transactions. I suppose the total (100%) would include new homes and mutifamily up to four units?
In any case, I wonder if small brokers and non-MLS sales are falling more than the components included in the sample. It might be interesting to track whether the PHSI is losing some of its predictive power in a down market, similar to the MBA survey.
"First we'll see a panic wave of people trying to sell ahead of the curve."
Sorry, I'm not for sale.
"That's okay... a little cash'll buy any kind of boat on EBay before too long.
tj & the bear"
Uh, tj, her family is 'wealthy'. They have no cash.
"The overall decline in contract signings suggests we are not out of the woods by any means," said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist.
Yun said that some pullback had been expected after April's surprise increase. The index jumped more than 7% in April as falling home prices sparked a bout of bargain shopping.
"The housing market had a nice bounce in April - too bad it doesn't appear to have carried through into May and June," said Mike Larson, real estate analyst at Weiss Research.
too bad it doesn't appear to have carried through into May and June," said Mike Larson, real estate analyst at Weiss Research.
"....AND JUNE"
This month Yun said:
"Yun said that some pullback had been expected after April's surprise increase".
Well if he expected a pullback, then why did he say this last month: "A modest gain in the level of home sales is possible over the next couple months,"
This revisionist crap pisses me off in a big way.