Today is a great day to buy or sell commercial real estate!
Up this way in NCal non-bay area, every day brings more "for lease" and "available" signs. It's amazing. We are now on the verge of sign pollution, since apparently the air quality wasn't bad enough.
So many of your charts are wonderful. At the same time, this one seems to have a false baseline, making it look like a more than doubling of vacancy rate, when it is a move from roughly 7.2 to 8.2. Is there something special about the move over this particular range? Is it an historical tipping point?
Misean,
Well these strip malls probably have a bus stop right in front. You also have other real stores in the mall. I bet any Realtor can see that as a 'good thing' considering high oil prices.
Walking distance to public transportation and shopping. Almost sounds like NYC but without the traffic. Which is a good thing.
barely, it doesn't matter. We'll go through this disastrous mess for the next couple of years, right on the heels of the debacle of 2000-2001 and these same horses arse commentators will invite the same tired old hacks to their shows to give us the same worn out and useless "analysis". It's a giant sham and the truly sad thing is that most people havent figured it out. I stopped going to my gym because every day in the locker room it's CNBC idiot financial talk. When I complained, they looked at me as if I were some kind of martian. So I told them "buh-bye". People just eat this garbage up, without thinking.
"REBear writes: They should convert them to condos."
Good one.
It looks as if demand for leased office space out here in Chicagoland is going down the drain too...
"Demand for leased suburban office space has fallen to levels not seen since the last recession, industry observers say, and some building owners are holding on to their property because buyers are rare."
Just to pipe up in defense of CR's chart here: the chosen baseline allows the viewer to see the rather large acceleration of vacancies in the second quarter. A lower baseline would have masked that very important aspect of the story.
Biggest holding in IYR is Simon Property Group. This is what they claim to do:
Regional malls and community shopping centers. As of December 31, 2007, the company owned or held an interest in 320 income-producing properties in the United States, which consisted of 168 regional malls, 38 Premium Outlet centers, 67 community/lifestyle centers, 37 properties acquired in the Mills acquisition, and 10 other shopping centers or outlet centers in 41 states and Puerto Rico. The company also owns interests in 4 parcels of land held for future development in the United States;
HOUSTON, July 8 (Reuters) - Transocean Inc (RIG), the world's largest offshore drilling contractor, said on Tuesday one of its deepwater drill ships has been awarded a five-year contract worth a record $650,000 per day.
Astonishing, really, what one had to do to make fun of Starbucks. With McDonald's, the epitome of ubiquity in my youth, "across the street" would have sufficed for absurdist mockery.
Circuit City has hit an all time low of two bucks and change, and their possible acquisition by Blockbuster is dead. So, what is gonna happen to all those CC stores when they bust?
Couldn't every CC store become a kind of cheapo strip mall?
gc, nothing special except the vacancy rate has been around 7% for the last few years. I plotted the graph at zero, but it wasn't as easy to see the rapid increase in vacancies - I noted the non zero axis in the post.
Is the drop in oil and gold part of the unwind of the Australian dollar against the yen? Or, are the I-banks unwinding as they are getting spooked about funding from the Fed drying up?
first hand account here:
Last night (monday) I went to an outlet mall on the SW coast of Florida...one that I had not been to in about two years...and the experience was eye opening..EVERY store had huge banners pushing up to 75% off and buy one get one free....the traffic? there was none (granted it was a rainy night) what little traffic there was I would say about 80% were from Europe...a few shuttered stores here and there...the overall feeling was the mall had been reduced to a dollar store.....and the store employees ranged from the one girl who was reading a book at the register in one store ..to another store where there was an over excited kid repeating "buy one pair of shoes get another at half price"....it was all sorta creepy and sad
Procter & Gamble Co., the maker of Tide laundry detergent and Head & Shoulders shampoo, announced yesterday it will raise prices as much as 16 percent because of higher costs for plastic, energy and paper.
The increases are the Cincinnati-based company's steepest in at least 18 months. Procter & Gamble is betting customers will continue to buy its Gillette shaving cream and Ivory soap rather than switch to store brands with lower prices.
Retailers will pay P&G 2 percent to 16 percent more for fabric, home and hair care, bar soaps, and health and shaving products beginning in September, P&G spokesman Paul Fox said yesterday.
Simon owns at least two enclosed malls on the North Shore (North Shore Mall and Liberty Tree Mall, right next to one another basically). I think I've seen Simon malls in other parts of the country that I've lived, but I couldn't swear to their locations.
I'm not a mall rat by any means, but there does seem to have been a decrease in carts/kiosks lately. They're usually the first to go.
"The good news is that when businesses stop going bk en masse it will be affordable once again to rent space and start a small business."
That would be nice... a friend would like to lease a small space for a dance studio. Sadly, she's in west L.A., retail doesn't seem to have crapped out here yet. Seeing signs it's weakening, but people are still shopping like mad. I guess everyone is rich here...
"Up this way in NCal non-bay area, every day brings more "for lease" and "available" signs. It's amazing. We are now on the verge of sign pollution, since apparently the air quality wasn't bad enough."
Down in Santa Cruz, I am seeing small strip malls and multi-unit retail buildings coming on the market in historically large numbers. These things hardly ever come on the market, they're perpetual moneymakers around here. And for lease signs are not pervasive yet.
Regarding Simon Property Group, they own the upscale Houston Galleria among others. I don't trust my observations taken there as a reflection of the overall economic outlook of Simon in particular and mall owners in general since the recent oil situation distorts economic activity in the Houston area. I'm looking to others' casual empiricism to enlighten me.
It just isn't strip malls. Our county bought into the hype and built/had built huge hangers on the county airport. They are currently listed on Trade A Plane for 4/ft/yr. What they dont tell you is there are 10 or 12 empties. At 10k sq ft. I don't think there is that much currently leased...
Don't get me started on the "Planned" industrial park right beside the airport...
I get the sense that we are set for a near term bounce and with the massive short interest levels, largely on the backs of weak handed retail investors, I expect a serious squeeze.
My wife works in retail here in Austin (upscale clothing) and according to her, Houston is the only city in the country that has maintained sales growth in her sector- everywhere else is flat to down. We're doing o.k. here in Austin (flat).
Once again, the Texas economy is floating on a sea of black gold. I've noticed driving through West Texas that every rusty old stripper well you see is pumping flat out. How long can it last?
howdy neighbors - though supported by the energy sector, Houston has seen some slowing in RRE - nothing like other parts of the country, though...
Smaller economies in West Texas are booming - BIL in Midland has seen bubble grade home price appreciation - but the survivors out there are wise to ideas of boom and bust...course there are new folks out there as well
We have a bunch of small strip centers that just came on line around here. All of them look the same. And most of them have one tenant at one end or the other, ususally a deli or a nail place.
Pioneer species.
But the thing is, as a genre, they are all unconnected to anything other than the road.
There is also a HUGE simon mall here, gigundo (Mall of Georgia) and simon built lots of strip malls around it, like a retail campus. Once I went there to hit the Bank, and tried to drop off the Mail from the office in a post box. The nice lady at the concierge desk told me there were no post boxes on the property.
Currently listed on the MLS at 750k. Defaulted on but the foreclosure isn't even started. Comparable lots next to it sold for ~150k in just 96-97 time frame.
So the first bastard in 99 lost 53k plus fees. Somebody then made about 700k. Then another made 200k.
How big is the loss gonna be to the 1.3M lender ????
A lot of retailers try to hang on January to get one last holiday season before shutting down.
At least in the suburban midwest, when a big box store closes, about 75% of the time in will remain vacant for years, and will greatly decrease the rents and occupancy on the smaller parts of the strip mall it was anchoring.
In the remaining 25% of the time, it will be rented at cut rates as a flea market, book liquidator, or furniture liquidator.
There are lots of people out there with ideas for stores who can't get a loan, since they have no business track record. I once asked about getting loans for a business I was interested in starting, and was basically told without a two year history for the business I couldn't get a loan. So, if you don't already have money, or a track record, you can't easily start a business. Then the malls forced out all the existing small, local businesses by raising rent prices and turning space over to the chain stores.
So the malls filled with all these big chain stores, that are now cutting back their store numbers. And all the malls start to go vacant, since no small merchants can afford to be in them.
Well, gee, what business model failed here? We used to have a country where people could start small businesses and grow them. Now if you don't already have money, you can't get money, and if you don't already have a business, you can't start a business. And if you do manage to start, some big company comes along and buys you out, and we ended up with more and more big conglomerates who don't give a shit about individual customers or personal service, and inspire no customer loyalty.
We need to really change the way we do business in this country, stop catering even further to the already wealthy, and provide growth opportunities. This trend to ever bigger companies that then collapse under their own weight is what's killing us right now.
The confidence is astounding here in Silicon Valley. Jobs are still plentiful, and though there's a little less traffic, most of the malls are full. What kills me is the huge abundance of commercial real estate for lease. I drive by well over 1000k sqft on a short 101 drive to work.
The two "full building available" signs for those just built... and the 6 other 7-story buildings going in next door (yes @237) seem unreal. They were built for a boom time that seems past or far in the future.
Doesn't seem to have changed rental rates much yet...
"So the malls filled with all these big chain stores, that are now cutting back their store numbers. And all the malls start to go vacant, since no small merchants can afford to be in them."
I suspect that at least part of that has to do with how easy it's been for big retailers to raise big money on good terms for grand expansion schemes. Much easier than for the little guy.
Of course, that playing field may be in the process of being leveled.
Downtown we have a large newish building with ground floor retail that was originally built for four tenants. But a national chain showed up and took the whole thing for one store. I think, a few years down the line, the space will be reconverted for four -- or more -- small tenants.
I have resisted, but I just have to ask. You have expressed opinions about the severity of the recession and the like, but you have never gone beyond that level. Is it in fact the case that you really and truly cannot imagine a depression coming about in the next--oh, I don't know, you pick the time frame--5 to 10 years??? Obviously the mechanics and related events leading up to it would be different then the late twenties early thirties, but the fact that Bernanke is channeling America's Uncle Miltie is cold comfort in my book. I seem to see a glaring Achilles' heel in the Bernanke-Friedman strategy where keeping this thing from developing into depression is concerned. But I am somewhat surprised that there is not more opinion to this effect. I mean if you believe something like we just could not possibly have a depression, it is basically saying you see no possible combination of events that would get us there. It would be somewhat unfair to compare that to "what goes up can't come down," but what the two have in common would seem to be IMHO a failure to modestly exercise the imagination. I really think that's where we are going, for whatever that is worth.
Just drove by an "upscale" shopping center in my neck of the wood & noticed that there are a few store that went kaput. Even with a famous basket ball stars name attached to the restaurant it's gone under. Sad. The local mall isn't doing to much better. But the mall IS renting out their windows for advertisement $$. Sad sad sad.
furst or wurst?
There's an entire empty strip mall here (just about 8 units or so) that's been sitting around for a few months now. Maybe I'll go take some pictures.
The good news is they're building a bunch of new empty banks and hotels around it.
I think the term is "magnet vacancies" or something like that.
"I think the term is "magnet vacancies"
Thanks ac, now I'm wiping coffee off my monitor.
I can't swing a cat around here without hitting a "For Lease 1 gazillion sq ft" sign.
But as I'm deadly allergic to cats I don't very often.
Cheers,
They should convert them to condos.
Get those avgs up ? I know! Add SKF to the DOW30!
REBear,
Now I have to clean up my coffee.
Cheers,
Today is a great day to buy or sell commercial real estate!
Up this way in NCal non-bay area, every day brings more "for lease" and "available" signs. It's amazing. We are now on the verge of sign pollution, since apparently the air quality wasn't bad enough.
So many of your charts are wonderful. At the same time, this one seems to have a false baseline, making it look like a more than doubling of vacancy rate, when it is a move from roughly 7.2 to 8.2. Is there something special about the move over this particular range? Is it an historical tipping point?
These days, it takes just one anchor store to vacate and the entire mall goes to hell in a handbasket...
Ah, how the coffee business has fallen:
New Starbucks Opens In Rest Room Of Existing Starbucks
I think Larry Kudlow has advanced senility disorder.
barely,
How does one go about advancing that?
Cheers,
Misean,
Well these strip malls probably have a bus stop right in front. You also have other real stores in the mall. I bet any Realtor can see that as a 'good thing' considering high oil prices.
Walking distance to public transportation and shopping. Almost sounds like NYC but without the traffic. Which is a good thing.
barely, it doesn't matter. We'll go through this disastrous mess for the next couple of years, right on the heels of the debacle of 2000-2001 and these same horses arse commentators will invite the same tired old hacks to their shows to give us the same worn out and useless "analysis". It's a giant sham and the truly sad thing is that most people havent figured it out. I stopped going to my gym because every day in the locker room it's CNBC idiot financial talk. When I complained, they looked at me as if I were some kind of martian. So I told them "buh-bye". People just eat this garbage up, without thinking.
I think Larry Kudlow has advanced senility disorder.
He was rambling earlier about "it's not 1931." I didn't know if he meant that literally...
He meant it literally.
Of course with our advanced Fed we've defeated anything like a 1930s depression
IMB down 46% to 0.37
Simon property group is going to zero.
"REBear writes: They should convert them to condos."
Good one.
It looks as if demand for leased office space out here in Chicagoland is going down the drain too...
"Demand for leased suburban office space has fallen to levels not seen since the last recession, industry observers say, and some building owners are holding on to their property because buyers are rare."
"Suburban office space losing occupancy and value"
Topic Galleries -- chicagotribune.com
Just to pipe up in defense of CR's chart here: the chosen baseline allows the viewer to see the rather large acceleration of vacancies in the second quarter. A lower baseline would have masked that very important aspect of the story.
Expired
Of course with our advanced Fed we've defeated anything like a 1930s depression
Yes, we'll get the new and improved version.
Biggest holding in IYR is Simon Property Group. This is what they claim to do:
One of these days the SRS volume is going to start catching up to the SKF volume.
Bubble????
HOUSTON, July 8 (Reuters) - Transocean Inc (RIG), the world's largest offshore drilling contractor, said on Tuesday one of its deepwater drill ships has been awarded a five-year contract worth a record $650,000 per day.
dry hole driller
Ah, how the coffee business has fallen:
Astonishing, really, what one had to do to make fun of Starbucks. With McDonald's, the epitome of ubiquity in my youth, "across the street" would have sufficed for absurdist mockery.
Circuit City has hit an all time low of two bucks and change, and their possible acquisition by Blockbuster is dead. So, what is gonna happen to all those CC stores when they bust?
Couldn't every CC store become a kind of cheapo strip mall?
Lots of space supply is on the way.
WB shareholder class-action lawsuit:
Law Offices of Brodsky & Smith, LLC Announces Expanded Class Period in Class Action Lawsuit Against Wachovia Corp.
No immediate stock reaction. Bulls are still buying financials based on Bernanke's comments.
gc, nothing special except the vacancy rate has been around 7% for the last few years. I plotted the graph at zero, but it wasn't as easy to see the rapid increase in vacancies - I noted the non zero axis in the post.
ac, "magnet vacancies"! Wow, great one.
Best Wishes.
We'll see if this second pump holds. I doubt it.
Is the drop in oil and gold part of the unwind of the Australian dollar against the yen? Or, are the I-banks unwinding as they are getting spooked about funding from the Fed drying up?
first hand account here:
Last night (monday) I went to an outlet mall on the SW coast of Florida...one that I had not been to in about two years...and the experience was eye opening..EVERY store had huge banners pushing up to 75% off and buy one get one free....the traffic? there was none (granted it was a rainy night) what little traffic there was I would say about 80% were from Europe...a few shuttered stores here and there...the overall feeling was the mall had been reduced to a dollar store.....and the store employees ranged from the one girl who was reading a book at the register in one store ..to another store where there was an over excited kid repeating "buy one pair of shoes get another at half price"....it was all sorta creepy and sad
Procter & Gamble Co., the maker of Tide laundry detergent and Head & Shoulders shampoo, announced yesterday it will raise prices as much as 16 percent because of higher costs for plastic, energy and paper.
The increases are the Cincinnati-based company's steepest in at least 18 months. Procter & Gamble is betting customers will continue to buy its Gillette shaving cream and Ivory soap rather than switch to store brands with lower prices.
Retailers will pay P&G 2 percent to 16 percent more for fabric, home and hair care, bar soaps, and health and shaving products beginning in September, P&G spokesman Paul Fox said yesterday.
404 - Resource not found
barely writes:
I think Larry Kudlow has advanced senility disorder.
No. It's just a result of a cocaine blackout.
There's an empty Starbucks in process with a "now hiring" banner on 1A near Logan Airport. I'm hoping that it never opens.
The good news is that when businesses stop going bk en masse it will be affordable once again to rent space and start a small business.
Simon owns at least two enclosed malls on the North Shore (North Shore Mall and Liberty Tree Mall, right next to one another basically). I think I've seen Simon malls in other parts of the country that I've lived, but I couldn't swear to their locations.
I'm not a mall rat by any means, but there does seem to have been a decrease in carts/kiosks lately. They're usually the first to go.
"The good news is that when businesses stop going bk en masse it will be affordable once again to rent space and start a small business."
That would be nice... a friend would like to lease a small space for a dance studio. Sadly, she's in west L.A., retail doesn't seem to have crapped out here yet. Seeing signs it's weakening, but people are still shopping like mad. I guess everyone is rich here...
"Up this way in NCal non-bay area, every day brings more "for lease" and "available" signs. It's amazing. We are now on the verge of sign pollution, since apparently the air quality wasn't bad enough."
Down in Santa Cruz, I am seeing small strip malls and multi-unit retail buildings coming on the market in historically large numbers. These things hardly ever come on the market, they're perpetual moneymakers around here. And for lease signs are not pervasive yet.
But I suspect the owners know something.
Regarding Simon Property Group, they own the upscale Houston Galleria among others. I don't trust my observations taken there as a reflection of the overall economic outlook of Simon in particular and mall owners in general since the recent oil situation distorts economic activity in the Houston area. I'm looking to others' casual empiricism to enlighten me.
It just isn't strip malls. Our county bought into the hype and built/had built huge hangers on the county airport. They are currently listed on Trade A Plane for 4/ft/yr. What they dont tell you is there are 10 or 12 empties. At 10k sq ft. I don't think there is that much currently leased...
Don't get me started on the "Planned" industrial park right beside the airport...
Chris
It just isn't strip malls.
Down in my neck of the woods, there are a bunch of "dockominiums" for sale or rent.
A 1% jump in vacancy over a year is huge - no matter the plot baseline.
1 out of 100. That is big enough to visualize.
Of course, this is only strip malls - what % of retail real estate is included? Does the trend extrapolate to other forms of retail real estate?
Argento | 07.08.08 - 11:54 am |
They keep touting those as a "Great investments" on the local rock stations. I really need to get satellite.
Chris
Misean writes:
I can't swing a cat around here without hitting a "For Lease 1 gazillion sq ft" sign.
But as I'm deadly allergic to cats I don't very often.
Misean,
Please return Tanta's neighbor's cat
I get the sense that we are set for a near term bounce and with the massive short interest levels, largely on the backs of weak handed retail investors, I expect a serious squeeze.
My account is now net long.
zinger -
My wife works in retail here in Austin (upscale clothing) and according to her, Houston is the only city in the country that has maintained sales growth in her sector- everywhere else is flat to down. We're doing o.k. here in Austin (flat).
Once again, the Texas economy is floating on a sea of black gold. I've noticed driving through West Texas that every rusty old stripper well you see is pumping flat out. How long can it last?
zinger, Derek -
howdy neighbors - though supported by the energy sector, Houston has seen some slowing in RRE - nothing like other parts of the country, though...
Smaller economies in West Texas are booming - BIL in Midland has seen bubble grade home price appreciation - but the survivors out there are wise to ideas of boom and bust...course there are new folks out there as well
We have a bunch of small strip centers that just came on line around here. All of them look the same. And most of them have one tenant at one end or the other, ususally a deli or a nail place.
Pioneer species.
But the thing is, as a genre, they are all unconnected to anything other than the road.
There is also a HUGE simon mall here, gigundo (Mall of Georgia) and simon built lots of strip malls around it, like a retail campus. Once I went there to hit the Bank, and tried to drop off the Mail from the office in a post box. The nice lady at the concierge desk told me there were no post boxes on the property.
None.
I thought that was weird.
"there were no post boxes on the property."
Huh. Fedex or UPS must be investors.
"Magnet vacancies" is brilliant. It should be a candidate for that NY Times competition every year for best new phrase.
Lets play flip this lot.
2 /1999 1680/767 VACANT $403,500
7 /1999 1721/195 VACANT $350,000
5 /2001 1894/364 VACANT $0
1 /2006 2901/24 VACANT $1,100,000
10/2006 1/66 IMPROVED $1,300,000
Currently listed on the MLS at 750k. Defaulted on but the foreclosure isn't even started. Comparable lots next to it sold for ~150k in just 96-97 time frame.
So the first bastard in 99 lost 53k plus fees. Somebody then made about 700k. Then another made 200k.
How big is the loss gonna be to the 1.3M lender ????
Chris
"I expect a serious squeeze."
I love those...seriously.
Mega malls anchored by Walmart may be risky as well.
404 | MiamiHerald.com
A lot of retailers try to hang on January to get one last holiday season before shutting down.
At least in the suburban midwest, when a big box store closes, about 75% of the time in will remain vacant for years, and will greatly decrease the rents and occupancy on the smaller parts of the strip mall it was anchoring.
In the remaining 25% of the time, it will be rented at cut rates as a flea market, book liquidator, or furniture liquidator.
There are lots of people out there with ideas for stores who can't get a loan, since they have no business track record. I once asked about getting loans for a business I was interested in starting, and was basically told without a two year history for the business I couldn't get a loan. So, if you don't already have money, or a track record, you can't easily start a business. Then the malls forced out all the existing small, local businesses by raising rent prices and turning space over to the chain stores.
So the malls filled with all these big chain stores, that are now cutting back their store numbers. And all the malls start to go vacant, since no small merchants can afford to be in them.
Well, gee, what business model failed here? We used to have a country where people could start small businesses and grow them. Now if you don't already have money, you can't get money, and if you don't already have a business, you can't start a business. And if you do manage to start, some big company comes along and buys you out, and we ended up with more and more big conglomerates who don't give a shit about individual customers or personal service, and inspire no customer loyalty.
We need to really change the way we do business in this country, stop catering even further to the already wealthy, and provide growth opportunities. This trend to ever bigger companies that then collapse under their own weight is what's killing us right now.
Now if you don't already have money, you can't get money
Unless you want to go to college; the government will drop $50K/year without even caring if you get a major. Go figure...
The confidence is astounding here in Silicon Valley. Jobs are still plentiful, and though there's a little less traffic, most of the malls are full. What kills me is the huge abundance of commercial real estate for lease. I drive by well over 1000k sqft on a short 101 drive to work.
The two "full building available" signs for those just built... and the 6 other 7-story buildings going in next door (yes @237) seem unreal. They were built for a boom time that seems past or far in the future.
Doesn't seem to have changed rental rates much yet...
Some idiot in my neighborhood was just denied a permit for a strip mall. All I could think of was what bank would loan him the money?
How do they evaluate someone for a loan like that? I doubt he has any prospective tenants.
The town was doing him a favor and he has no idea.
"So the malls filled with all these big chain stores, that are now cutting back their store numbers. And all the malls start to go vacant, since no small merchants can afford to be in them."
I suspect that at least part of that has to do with how easy it's been for big retailers to raise big money on good terms for grand expansion schemes. Much easier than for the little guy.
Of course, that playing field may be in the process of being leveled.
Downtown we have a large newish building with ground floor retail that was originally built for four tenants. But a national chain showed up and took the whole thing for one store. I think, a few years down the line, the space will be reconverted for four -- or more -- small tenants.
Dear CR:
I have resisted, but I just have to ask. You have expressed opinions about the severity of the recession and the like, but you have never gone beyond that level. Is it in fact the case that you really and truly cannot imagine a depression coming about in the next--oh, I don't know, you pick the time frame--5 to 10 years??? Obviously the mechanics and related events leading up to it would be different then the late twenties early thirties, but the fact that Bernanke is channeling America's Uncle Miltie is cold comfort in my book. I seem to see a glaring Achilles' heel in the Bernanke-Friedman strategy where keeping this thing from developing into depression is concerned. But I am somewhat surprised that there is not more opinion to this effect. I mean if you believe something like we just could not possibly have a depression, it is basically saying you see no possible combination of events that would get us there. It would be somewhat unfair to compare that to "what goes up can't come down," but what the two have in common would seem to be IMHO a failure to modestly exercise the imagination. I really think that's where we are going, for whatever that is worth.
All the best.
Fewer strip malls? GASP! Where will I go to get my title loans???
Just drove by an "upscale" shopping center in my neck of the wood & noticed that there are a few store that went kaput. Even with a famous basket ball stars name attached to the restaurant it's gone under. Sad. The local mall isn't doing to much better. But the mall IS renting out their windows for advertisement $$. Sad sad sad.