OT (I'm new to this and mostly just lurk here. Please forgive my ignorance) What happened at about 3:30 to the stock market? It fell like a stone. I know dips are normal but in the few months I've been watching, today looked pretty strange to me.
Regarding that shill Corcoran, this is from Ben Jones's blog:
Listen to the latest from the NY guru:
The current housing downturn isnt over and is much much worse than past downturns, says Barbara Corcoran, who built The Corcoran Group into a multi-billion firm during the real estate busts of the mid-1970s, 1980s and early 1990s.
This downturn is grossly different than those past cycles because homeowners are much more willing to walk away from homes, says Corcoran, who sold her namesake firm in 2001 for a reported $66 million and is now an author and widely cited real estate guru.
There arent enough brave souls to stem the decline which Corcoran says will take prices down another 5%-to-10% nationally and end next Spring - in a best case scenario.
May 9, 2005:
Newsday interviewed this real estate celebrity, barefoot, wearing a cranberry colored blazer and slacks. Barbara Corcoran is even more of a symbol of the citys obsession with real estate now. Shes on Good Morning America and the Today show advising people how to buy and sell. By September she hopes to host a weekly real estate show on national television.
A newsletter from a group of Prudential downtown Manhattan brokers said recently, You heard it here first: The market is slowing down and pretty significantly too. One of those brokers says people are reducing really extreme asking prices for high-end apartments but that the markets still strong.
Corcoran concedes there are periods when housing markets drop. Over a 3 1/2 year period beginning in 1987, city prices dropped about 32 percent. She admits there are some people who risk getting hurt badly in this housing boom.Is it dangerous to be a flipper if you dont have an educated eye? Its ridiculous, she says.
Her advice? If youre a seller, underprice your property by 10 percent and youll set off a buying frenzy. If youre a buyer, overbid to get the property you want, and the rising tide of the real estate market will protect you.
April 29, 2005:
Is the US real estate sector in a bubble market? And if so, is it in danger of popping? While some areas will always tend to be more volatile, on a national scope, theres probably no housing bubble.
March 29, 2005:
I think its a much scarier world that we live in. When kids are scared, where do they run? They run home. People are staying home more..its really reassuring for people to know they own the walls around them. People have also become more distrustful. People dont trust the government, they dont trust Corporate America, they dont trust the stock market. They trust their house.
I think the bubble theory is nothing more than an intellectual expression of peoples typical worry that good times cant last forever. When your marriage is going well, you worry theres a problem on the horizon Other than my boyfriend and business partner marrying my secretary, it has been my hardest transition.
I think the first to comeback will be the stuff that is in short supply and has able buyers...people with cash. So the solid neighborhoods, the waterfront and good views, the good design and nice floorplans...they will come back before the mass marketed stuff. The acres of off-the-shelf multi peak front loaded garage with mini shrubs at each corner and faux stone elements will be on the shelf for a while.
The current housing downturn isnt over and is much much worse than past downturns, says Barbara Corcoran, who built The Corcoran Group into a multi-billion firm during the real estate busts of the mid-1970s, 1980s and early 1990s.
This downturn is grossly different than those past cycles because homeowners are much more willing to walk away from homes, says Corcoran, who sold her namesake firm in 2001 for a reported $66 million and is now an author and widely cited real estate guru.
There arent enough brave souls to stem the decline which Corcoran says will take prices down another 5%-to-10% nationally and end next Spring - in a best case scenario.
May 9, 2005:
Newsday interviewed this real estate celebrity, barefoot, wearing a cranberry colored blazer and slacks. Barbara Corcoran is even more of a symbol of the citys obsession with real estate now. Shes on Good Morning America and the Today show advising people how to buy and sell. By September she hopes to host a weekly real estate show on national television.
A newsletter from a group of Prudential downtown Manhattan brokers said recently, You heard it here first: The market is slowing down and pretty significantly too. One of those brokers says people are reducing really extreme asking prices for high-end apartments but that the markets still strong.
Corcoran concedes there are periods when housing markets drop. Over a 3 1/2 year period beginning in 1987, city prices dropped about 32 percent. She admits there are some people who risk getting hurt badly in this housing boom.Is it dangerous to be a flipper if you dont have an educated eye? Its ridiculous, she says.
Her advice? If youre a seller, underprice your property by 10 percent and youll set off a buying frenzy. If youre a buyer, overbid to get the property you want, and the rising tide of the real estate market will protect you.
April 29, 2005:
Is the US real estate sector in a bubble market? And if so, is it in danger of popping? While some areas will always tend to be more volatile, on a national scope, theres probably no housing bubble.
March 29, 2005:
I think its a much scarier world that we live in. When kids are scared, where do they run? They run home. People are staying home more..its really reassuring for people to know they own the walls around them. People have also become more distrustful. People dont trust the government, they dont trust Corporate America, they dont trust the stock market. They trust their house.
I think the bubble theory is nothing more than an intellectual expression of peoples typical worry that good times cant last forever. When your marriage is going well, you worry theres a problem on the horizon Other than my boyfriend and business partner marrying my secretary, it has been my hardest transition.
"If anything, the majority of homeowners can be blamed "for being naive," says Corcoran, who supports the idea of a government bailout of the housing market; yes, including the nationalization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, whose shares are tumbling again today.
If Fannie and Freddie are nationalized, what are the implications? It seems to me that the U.S. may be on the hook for several trillion dollars worth of bad debt. Wouldn't this cause our sovereign debt interest rates to blow sky high and the dollar to crumble?
Don't know about where you're at, but the Goodwill in my area (Charleston, SC) decided several years ago, it was better to own then rent, so they have a lot of CRE exposure.
Just as I suspected. The reason my house has declined so much in value is those no account neighbors of mine walking away, scot free, from their obligations... taking advantage of those nice hardworking people down at the bank.
I knew we should never have let those ne'er-do-wells into the neighborhood... if those lazy bums would just pay their bills...
Mr. Risk, just wanted to say thanks; I've been a regular reader for a couple years and have rarely posted. My wife and I have been bubble sitters for 3 years, but took the plunge this week on a special piece of raw land on the edge of town. I fully expect prices to decline an additional 25%, but couldn't bear the thought of someone else snatching up that particular land as the market recovers. I never thought I would be a knife-catcher, but here I am. On the plus side, contractors are lining up to bid. I think the first people to jump back in this market will be those who saved and really just want a home. But I don't know how many of us there are.
Please. Let us not have real estate agents turned authors steal phrases from real writers.
Anyone who read Thompson knew that the so-called "gonzo journalist" was about a lot more than sex, drugs and rock-and-roll -- although it is Thompson who gets credit for introducing all three of those precious commodities to the mainstream of American journalism. The gun-toting, mescaline-downing wildman that showed up in Doonesbury as "Uncle Duke" was merely the cartoon version of an often serious, and always important, political commentator who once said that his beat was the death of the American dream
Her beat is the "death of the middleclass". Or as someone once put it here, "demiddleclassification".
Now, who hid my mescaline, my SRS is up 10% and I want to party!
I'm so tired of people looking to the government (i.e., the taxpayer pockets) for help.
I think a big part of what got is into this mess is the belief that the Fed was there as a safety net to save us from our mistakes.
People need to remember that the economy is merely the aggregate output of all the individuals and businesses in this country, and what can the government know about specifically running those businesses in the best possible way?
OK, maybe they can help with basic needs and infrastructure like energy, but what can the government do to make sure Person X's shoe shop, for example, is successful?
The government is not an expert on making and selling shoes, yet to expect them (or the President) to be responsible for the overall economy is to expect them to run all the businesses and take care of all the personal finances of everybody in the country.
It's kind of an absurd proposition, yet implicitly people seem to be asking for this everyday when they say "Which presidential candidate would make the economy better?"
If I were president I'd say "It's your damn economy, not mine. You shouldn't be asking how I can make the economy better; you should be asking yourselves how you screwed it, and how not to do it again."
This will be on their personal property too. Those mid 90s changes by the IRS regarding taxes due for corporations are quite onerous on those "officers"- so keep that in mind if your ship is sinking, pay the IRS first and foremost, and devil take the hindmost.
The ship is taking on more water, and forward progress is stalled.
I can hardly wait until it becomes obvious that we have no real basis for our economy to support the standard of living of our populace.
But hey, as long as it doesn't implode overnight, and it seems like it is going to take quite a while, get some popcorn, quit 'cher bitchin about the folks losing everything, and enjoy.
Allen M - There story does not add up, either way, when Uncle Sam says pay me $5.4 million...you are right pay him first then screw everybody else... If I was a local contractor I would avoid working with these guys
``Until then, depending on what sector of the economy you're in, it will feel slow and may feel like a recession,'' Lewis, 61, said today in prepared remarks in Los Angeles.
Here are some things I definitely know about American versus British humour. We find British teeth funny. This was proven with the success of Austin Powers and reinforced when Lisa Simpsons orthodontist showed her The Big Book of British Teeth. Also we dont understand jokes about soccer. Or football as you call it. Not that Im an expert on any sports. What I know about them you could fit on a midgets shirt button. (Actually the politically correct term is little person. I have a friend thats a little person so I know that now. Well shes not really
a friend, she more like a shag buddy.)
I dont know what the British think is funny about Americans. Theyre probably too polite to tell me to my face. Heres something they might
find funny: George Bush says if one more person compares him to Hitler hes going to gas them. Did you find that funny? They wouldnt over here. How about this? Two Middle Eastern fathers are comparing pictures of their sons who are terrorists. One of the dads says, Ah, they blow up so fast. Do you find that funny?
I remember seeing Barbara blabbing about homes a couple of years ago. Seems she still is blabbing. But, of course, that is what most real estate agents do.
BB, it's fun watching the optimists slowly change their tunes ... but not fun thinking about the consequences.
I think it's debatable how deep this recession will be (Roubini says severe, I think less than severe, at least as far as unemployment) ... but I think it's becoming clear that the effects will linger for some time. That has been my forecast based on the nature of this downturn (not manufacturing led).
And in many ways a lingering recession is very painful. This means people that do lose their jobs might be unemployed for an extended period - and that will hurt.
I remember the double dip recession of the early '80s with many homeless people living in encampments with signs that read "Reaganville" (a take off on Hoovervilles from the Depression).
That recession lingered too ... and was very deep (with double digit unemployment). Hopefully this one won't be that bad.
Does anybody have a video of Ms. Corcoran when she was touting real estate on Fox Business News block on Saturday mornings a couple of years ago? It sounds like all she wants is massive government bailouts to prop up the ridiculous bubble prices.
Does anybody have a video of Ms. Corcoran when she was touting real estate on Fox Business News block on Saturday mornings a couple of years ago? It sounds like all she wants is massive government bailouts to prop up the ridiculous bubble prices.
Corcoran was on Fox News? There goes her credibility...
Defense Secretary Robert Gates on Wednesday reopened a bitter $35 billion aerial tanker contest after the selection process that picked Northrop Grumman Corp and EADS over Boeing Co was found to be flawed.
The contest will now be overseen by John Young, the Pentagon's chief weapons buyer, not the Air Force, and Gates hoped a decision could be reached by December since the current process had already "gone on far too long."
So the years spin by and now the boy is twenty
Though his dreams have lost some grandeur
Coming true There'll be new dreams, maybe better dreams and plenty
Before the last revolving year is through.
And the seasons they go round and round
And the painted ponies go up and down
Were captive on the carousel of time
We cant return, we can only look behind
From where we came
And go round and round and round
In the circle game-Joni Mitchell
Calculated Risk writes:
That recession lingered too ... and was very deep (with double digit unemployment). Hopefully this one won't be that bad.
A lot will depend on the policies being formulated now by the powers that be.
But as always, in adversity there is opportunity. So yes maybe deep down i am an optimist.
The real demons were the mortgage brokers,
realtors, lenders, underwriters,
appraisers, bond pushers, schools,
and non-regulators.
They knew what was happening.
Some home buyers could barely read,
even if they had a HS diploma.
... Now they must must learn the
three R's as post-grads.
_
Merrill Lynch has recorded more than $30 billion of writedowns since the third quarter of last year. The third largest U.S. broker-dealer is expected to have suffered in the second quarter as bond insurers lost their top ratings and the structured credit market weakened.
Merrill Lynch sold its investment management business to BlackRock in 2006 in exchange for shares in the asset manager, whose funds it distributes.
This shill was on Larry King a few weeks ago telling everyone that they should take out the equity in their homes and use it to buy another house in their neighborhood. Unfortunately, she didn't say what to do with it...
I've always said that the 40 year mortgage was the Canadian subprime. Canadian who couldn't afford a house merely chose to amortize over longer periods of time. I'd see borrowers not give a damn about the $100,000s extra they'd be paying for extra amort period. All they'd care about is whether they could make the new lower monthly payments.
Of course, realtors pushed for the higher amort periods so that more people could qualify for ridiculously overpriced homes. More buyers + meme that real estate only goes up = greater price appreciation and less affordability.
I love the fact that my government is kicking out the legs from under the housing industry now that Ontario is in a recession (you Americans aren't buying any of our cars don't you know). Even in my oil-shiekdom of Alberta, house prices are falling.
Suze Orman: Where to put your money now - CNN.com
This and Corcoran are idiots. They have steered and continue to steer simpletons into a train wreck. "Never try to time the market. Make timely contributions irrespective of market movement. Use mutual funds, blah, blah, blah."
Fat Cats love them--their providing nearly endless new money to a tanking system. Fools, greater fools, and blathering no-nothings.
Deflation in fixed assets, RE, equipment, autos, durables, luxuries. Inflation in food, energy, basic materials, essential services. BB needs to keep inflation rate higher than deflation; otherwise his marginally effective monetary policy is KAPUT!
There arent enough brave souls to stem the decline which Corcoran says will take prices down another 5%-to-10% nationally and end next Spring - in a best case scenario.
Oh, cry me a river!
We've become a disposable culture:
People buy large amounts of cheap junk made over seas; when it stops working, they chuck it.
People use other people and toss them out in the trash when they are no longer useful. Witness the divorce rate, the absurd number of layoffs (while executives continue to make 400x that of the average worker), and so on.
The only crime these days is being caught. "Everyone" is: cheating on their spouses, lying on their mortgage applications, etc.
Meanwhile, business continues to "walk away" from its duties. Say good-bye to your pension, your health care benefits, and eventually your job.
In a culture where selfish and nearly sociopathic behavior is considered "normal" if not "competitive," how can anyone be surprised by people walking away from their underwater loans?
I am actually glad they are doing it since it is perhaps the only chance the "little guy" has to screw the money-lenders who created this Ponzi scheme while bankrupting a nation in the process. It is amusing when greedy, stupid people end up screwing over greedy and arrogant people.
Fannie will now purchase 40 year fixed-rate mortgages and 40-year hybrid adjustable rate mortgages (ARMS) with initial fixed periods of three, five, seven, or ten years. Not included in the new purchase standards are biweekly mortgage products, loans secured by manufactured housing, loan to value ratios greater than 95%; and ARMS with initial fixed rate periods shorter than three years (including the popular 1-year ARM) or with any subsequent adjustment period greater or less than one year. Also on the no-fly list are negative amortization loans.
Now we face a time to decide if we are a
real nation, though one taken from tribes.
Formed in brutal revolution; held in civil war;
sustained with death and wounds in France,
Italy, Iwo, Pusan, Hue; deserted in Baghdad.
Or if we are a circus of self-servers, lacking
knowledge, ethics, community, and higher
purposes, who would neglect New Orleans,
children, and others now suffering.
Ooopps that was from 3 year ago....LOL! I love these old stories!!
http://www.thelongwaveanalyst.ca/winterwatch/WW_March22_05_print.htm
Fannie Mae has just reintroduced the 40 year mortgage to make housing more affordable. This according to Eric Englund is a desperate measure to keep expanding its own balance sheet in order to maintain its solvency. The company has a debt to equity ratio of 43-1, which is massive leverage. Fannie Mae retains a $900 billion mortgage portfolio and in addition guarantees $1.3 trillion in mortgage backed securities. Eric believes it is a matter of when, not if, the credit bubble bursts and mortgages go into default, Fannie Mae's equity position would be decimated. In the end the boom-bust cycle (as brought on by central banking) cannot be repealed. When the bust hits, Fannie Mae's extremely leveraged balance sheet will collapse like a house of cards - forty-year mortgages be damned. Ibid. 1.Fannie Mae Resurrects the Forty-Year Mortgage in an Attempt to Remain Solvent. Eric Englund. www. financialsense.com
The company, based in Port Washington, New York, listed debts and assets of $500 million to $1 billion in Chapter 11 documents filed today in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Manhattan. Sixty-three affiliates also filed.
The British think vomiting (or "getting sick") is very very funny; I suspect it is because it is socially embarrassing and they think being embarrassed socially is hilarious. It needs the context of a very proper, appearance obsessed, and rigid society. In Brideshead Revisited, Sebastian met the guy he fell in love with when he vomited into his rooms at Oxford through the window when drunk.
Pondering the Mess, and you wonder why the Muslims consider the USA the great satan? Because we are.
Some dumbshit on CNBC was proclaiming a bottom, because in all the last 5 or 6 bear markets, it was a bottom and buying opportunity.
Except he's a dumbass, because 73-74 had the markets down nearly 50%. And he's an even bigger dumbshit because the problems behind this bear market are much much bigger than any since the 30's. And this one is even worse than that one by a large amount. No PPT can stop this upcoming decline. No chance.
The Democratic-led Congress this afternoon voted to put an end to the NSA spying scandal, as the Senate approved a bill -- approved last week by the House -- to immunize lawbreaking telecoms, terminate all pending lawsuits against them, and vest whole new warrantless eavesdropping powers in the President. The vote in favor of the new FISA bill was 69-28. Barack Obama joined every Senate Republican (and every House Republican other than one) by voting in favor of it, while his now-vanquished primary rival, Sen. Hillary Clinton, voted against it.
Obama's vote in favor of cloture, in particular, cemented the complete betrayal of the commitment he made back in October when seeking the Democratic nomination. Back then, Obama's spokesman -- in response to demands for a clear statement of Obama's views on the spying controversy after he had previously given a vague and noncommittal statement -- issued this emphatic vow:
To be clear: Barack will support a filibuster of any bill that includes retroactive immunity for telecommunications companies.
Here it is baby, the smoking gun left behind with Greenspan prints!!!
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
International Finance Discussion Papers
Number 841
September 2005
House Prices and Monetary Policy: A Cross-Country Study
Alan G. Ahearne, et al...
Like other asset prices, house prices are influenced by interest rates, and in some
countries, the housing market is a key channel of monetary policy transmission. Indeed, house
prices appear to be associated with business-cycle movements in a number of real variables, such
as consumption and investment. Nevertheless, there is no consensus as to whether
accommodative policy has contributed to excess volatility in house or other asset prices, either recently or in previous episodes. Because house prices, monetary variables and macroeconomic aggregates also move in response to other shocks hitting the economy, the direction or extent of causality between these variables can be difficult to disentangle.
The VIX is being played by hedges and the dollah will go up, oil down, then as the recession wakes up more people, the current Congress, Senate & Bush/McCain Coup will find itself voted out of power.
meanwhile, it has been both suggested and alleged that Cindy McCain is currently preserved in oil and thought to be a vampire (for what it's worth).
Im with you Greg. Made me want to cry watching SRS just keep going down yesterday. But I told myself, if it goes down all fricking day, Im buying big one minute before the close. And today, I sold all of it plus the new shares one minute before the close. It was like watching this time lapse picture in reverse today. I just kept laughing to myself that it couldnt reverse all day, and kept watching it do just that.
Now...when to get back in? This was probably the scariest rollercoaster yet, but there was good reason to believe yesterday was a pumpty dumpty day, so I figured, why not try to take advantage of it.
Curious, I think a bunch of us broke the rules yesterday, because it was just a totally ridiculous burst of buying. No good reason, other than the laughable stories about covered bonds, and the Fed's continued "we're here to help" BS. It had the stink of dump on retail bagholders written all over it. Stick to your convictions. This market is headed well lower. Yes, there will be bursts of upward movement, but none will have the legs of the MidMarch rally. That was really unfun to sit through. But if you didnt bail, you came out way ahead.
Going long at the close or first thing in the morning was the only move to make. Short term, long term what the hell, this market has a long way to go down. Cover when you are throwing up. And, it allways feels like this.
then, do it again.
Corcoran was totally drunk on the punch two years agoon Fox News. She practically jumped out of her panty hose at Jim Rogers when he said it was a bubble that would eventually burst.
Nice to see that Babs has finally sobered up and is attending her AA meetings.
P.S. Around the same time Jim Rogers said that Fannie Mae was a $15 stock. Seems like he got it right on both counts.
They killed the American Dream back in the 90's when they first started blowing this bubble.
The American Dream was to OWN a home, as in, mortgage paid off.
Taking on a bloated mortgage that you have no chance of ever paying off never was the American Dream - though it may have been dreamy for the lenders for a while, til it blew up in their faces.
They took the American Dream and turned it into the American Nightmare.
Congress needs to get out of the way and give us our freaking DREAM back.
Let the market correct and get back in line with people's income.
Ha! You can call this number and leave a message with President Bush's office to VETO Congresses' latest attempt to prop the American Nightmare up, (the Housing Bailout Bill):
1-202-456-1111
A really nice lady answers the phone and takes your message. Quick and easy.
I want to see Barbara Corcoran and Suze Orman go at it in a cage match.
Each may arm herself with an Amex Centurion Card and a copy of Dow 36,000 (hardcover, naturally). D.R. Horton will design the cage so that it's a cross between a medieval dungeon and a Dairy Queen -- quite like its houses, come to think of it.
Until that happens, HC's American Dream ain't dead, baby -- not by a longshot!
Uhhh...the american dream was to work hard, save, and one day own a home.
It was never to sneak across the border at night, lie on a mortgage application, and buy a McMansion you couldnt afford in the hopes you could get profit from its appreciation over a short term.
OT (I'm new to this and mostly just lurk here. Please forgive my ignorance) What happened at about 3:30 to the stock market? It fell like a stone. I know dips are normal but in the few months I've been watching, today looked pretty strange to me.
Hey chart guys
We had a small rally yesterday and gave it all back and them some today.
I believe the S&P is now in Bear territory.
Look forward to discussion
more people need to jump off fences
...and bridges
this is it
Horsepucky! She thinks everyone bought a home to live in? What planet is she on?
Regarding that shill Corcoran, this is from Ben Jones's blog:
Listen to the latest from the NY guru:
The current housing downturn isnt over and is much much worse than past downturns, says Barbara Corcoran, who built The Corcoran Group into a multi-billion firm during the real estate busts of the mid-1970s, 1980s and early 1990s.
This downturn is grossly different than those past cycles because homeowners are much more willing to walk away from homes, says Corcoran, who sold her namesake firm in 2001 for a reported $66 million and is now an author and widely cited real estate guru.
There arent enough brave souls to stem the decline which Corcoran says will take prices down another 5%-to-10% nationally and end next Spring - in a best case scenario.
May 9, 2005:
Newsday interviewed this real estate celebrity, barefoot, wearing a cranberry colored blazer and slacks. Barbara Corcoran is even more of a symbol of the citys obsession with real estate now. Shes on Good Morning America and the Today show advising people how to buy and sell. By September she hopes to host a weekly real estate show on national television.
A newsletter from a group of Prudential downtown Manhattan brokers said recently, You heard it here first: The market is slowing down and pretty significantly too. One of those brokers says people are reducing really extreme asking prices for high-end apartments but that the markets still strong.
Corcoran concedes there are periods when housing markets drop. Over a 3 1/2 year period beginning in 1987, city prices dropped about 32 percent. She admits there are some people who risk getting hurt badly in this housing boom.Is it dangerous to be a flipper if you dont have an educated eye? Its ridiculous, she says.
Her advice? If youre a seller, underprice your property by 10 percent and youll set off a buying frenzy. If youre a buyer, overbid to get the property you want, and the rising tide of the real estate market will protect you.
April 29, 2005:
Is the US real estate sector in a bubble market? And if so, is it in danger of popping? While some areas will always tend to be more volatile, on a national scope, theres probably no housing bubble.
March 29, 2005:
I think its a much scarier world that we live in. When kids are scared, where do they run? They run home. People are staying home more..its really reassuring for people to know they own the walls around them. People have also become more distrustful. People dont trust the government, they dont trust Corporate America, they dont trust the stock market. They trust their house.
I think the bubble theory is nothing more than an intellectual expression of peoples typical worry that good times cant last forever. When your marriage is going well, you worry theres a problem on the horizon Other than my boyfriend and business partner marrying my secretary, it has been my hardest transition.
I'm so tired of people looking to the government (i.e., the taxpayer pockets) for help.
Please, please, let the market adjust!
I think the first to comeback will be the stuff that is in short supply and has able buyers...people with cash. So the solid neighborhoods, the waterfront and good views, the good design and nice floorplans...they will come back before the mass marketed stuff. The acres of off-the-shelf multi peak front loaded garage with mini shrubs at each corner and faux stone elements will be on the shelf for a while.
The starter chateaux? I am afraid they are toast.
safe_as_apartments, yeah, it's interesting to see the people that said there was "no bubble" in 2005 change their tune!
Best Wishes.
Listen to the latest from the NY guru:
The current housing downturn isnt over and is much much worse than past downturns, says Barbara Corcoran, who built The Corcoran Group into a multi-billion firm during the real estate busts of the mid-1970s, 1980s and early 1990s.
This downturn is grossly different than those past cycles because homeowners are much more willing to walk away from homes, says Corcoran, who sold her namesake firm in 2001 for a reported $66 million and is now an author and widely cited real estate guru.
There arent enough brave souls to stem the decline which Corcoran says will take prices down another 5%-to-10% nationally and end next Spring - in a best case scenario.
May 9, 2005:
Newsday interviewed this real estate celebrity, barefoot, wearing a cranberry colored blazer and slacks. Barbara Corcoran is even more of a symbol of the citys obsession with real estate now. Shes on Good Morning America and the Today show advising people how to buy and sell. By September she hopes to host a weekly real estate show on national television.
A newsletter from a group of Prudential downtown Manhattan brokers said recently, You heard it here first: The market is slowing down and pretty significantly too. One of those brokers says people are reducing really extreme asking prices for high-end apartments but that the markets still strong.
Corcoran concedes there are periods when housing markets drop. Over a 3 1/2 year period beginning in 1987, city prices dropped about 32 percent. She admits there are some people who risk getting hurt badly in this housing boom.Is it dangerous to be a flipper if you dont have an educated eye? Its ridiculous, she says.
Her advice? If youre a seller, underprice your property by 10 percent and youll set off a buying frenzy. If youre a buyer, overbid to get the property you want, and the rising tide of the real estate market will protect you.
April 29, 2005:
Is the US real estate sector in a bubble market? And if so, is it in danger of popping? While some areas will always tend to be more volatile, on a national scope, theres probably no housing bubble.
March 29, 2005:
I think its a much scarier world that we live in. When kids are scared, where do they run? They run home. People are staying home more..its really reassuring for people to know they own the walls around them. People have also become more distrustful. People dont trust the government, they dont trust Corporate America, they dont trust the stock market. They trust their house.
I think the bubble theory is nothing more than an intellectual expression of peoples typical worry that good times cant last forever. When your marriage is going well, you worry theres a problem on the horizon Other than my boyfriend and business partner marrying my secretary, it has been my hardest transition.
sorry this was posted....although its good to see this LIAR turn around
CR, just watch the ag/oil bubble blow in the next few years.
Demand destruction appears to be real and ongoing.
I can hardly wait for the tax increases to begin to weigh on the stock market, even the safe defense stocks will roll over after that hit.
Stagflation.
Someday this war's gonna end...
"If anything, the majority of homeowners can be blamed "for being naive," says Corcoran, who supports the idea of a government bailout of the housing market; yes, including the nationalization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, whose shares are tumbling again today.
Mens WH lowers guidance...da boys on WS must be buying their suits at Goodwill. Going long Goodwill!
I was at the gym two weeks ago and she as on CNN pumping this market...saying it was a good time to buy...
If Fannie and Freddie are nationalized, what are the implications? It seems to me that the U.S. may be on the hook for several trillion dollars worth of bad debt. Wouldn't this cause our sovereign debt interest rates to blow sky high and the dollar to crumble?
Why would this be a good thing for the country?
Going long Goodwill
Don't know about where you're at, but the Goodwill in my area (Charleston, SC) decided several years ago, it was better to own then rent, so they have a lot of CRE exposure.
Just as I suspected. The reason my house has declined so much in value is those no account neighbors of mine walking away, scot free, from their obligations... taking advantage of those nice hardworking people down at the bank.
I knew we should never have let those ne'er-do-wells into the neighborhood... if those lazy bums would just pay their bills...
Canada now creeping to the edge...........
Ottawa to tighten mortgage rules
Justice requires some rope and trees.
Without that, the scumbags won.
This fight ain't over, yet.
Builder stiffs IRS on $5 million:
404 - Page not found
Walkaways. Small declines. Washington is the problem.
Is she ignorant, or intentionally lying?
Pretty much the same question I ask of everyone on TV these days.
Gag!
Interesting Times:
Hope you didn't short your metals today.
Double whammy on equities as well as USD.
Mr. Risk, just wanted to say thanks; I've been a regular reader for a couple years and have rarely posted. My wife and I have been bubble sitters for 3 years, but took the plunge this week on a special piece of raw land on the edge of town. I fully expect prices to decline an additional 25%, but couldn't bear the thought of someone else snatching up that particular land as the market recovers. I never thought I would be a knife-catcher, but here I am. On the plus side, contractors are lining up to bid. I think the first people to jump back in this market will be those who saved and really just want a home. But I don't know how many of us there are.
Please. Let us not have real estate agents turned authors steal phrases from real writers.
Anyone who read Thompson knew that the so-called "gonzo journalist" was about a lot more than sex, drugs and rock-and-roll -- although it is Thompson who gets credit for introducing all three of those precious commodities to the mainstream of American journalism. The gun-toting, mescaline-downing wildman that showed up in Doonesbury as "Uncle Duke" was merely the cartoon version of an often serious, and always important, political commentator who once said that his beat was the death of the American dream
Her beat is the "death of the middleclass". Or as someone once put it here, "demiddleclassification".
Now, who hid my mescaline, my SRS is up 10% and I want to party!
I'm so tired of people looking to the government (i.e., the taxpayer pockets) for help.
I think a big part of what got is into this mess is the belief that the Fed was there as a safety net to save us from our mistakes.
People need to remember that the economy is merely the aggregate output of all the individuals and businesses in this country, and what can the government know about specifically running those businesses in the best possible way?
OK, maybe they can help with basic needs and infrastructure like energy, but what can the government do to make sure Person X's shoe shop, for example, is successful?
The government is not an expert on making and selling shoes, yet to expect them (or the President) to be responsible for the overall economy is to expect them to run all the businesses and take care of all the personal finances of everybody in the country.
It's kind of an absurd proposition, yet implicitly people seem to be asking for this everyday when they say "Which presidential candidate would make the economy better?"
If I were president I'd say "It's your damn economy, not mine. You shouldn't be asking how I can make the economy better; you should be asking yourselves how you screwed it, and how not to do it again."
That's why I'm not the president.
Crispy, nobody escapes the IRS.
This will be on their personal property too. Those mid 90s changes by the IRS regarding taxes due for corporations are quite onerous on those "officers"- so keep that in mind if your ship is sinking, pay the IRS first and foremost, and devil take the hindmost.
The ship is taking on more water, and forward progress is stalled.
I can hardly wait until it becomes obvious that we have no real basis for our economy to support the standard of living of our populace.
But hey, as long as it doesn't implode overnight, and it seems like it is going to take quite a while, get some popcorn, quit 'cher bitchin about the folks losing everything, and enjoy.
This is a once in a lifetime experience.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Allen M - There story does not add up, either way, when Uncle Sam says pay me $5.4 million...you are right pay him first then screw everybody else... If I was a local contractor I would avoid working with these guys
Bank of America's Lewis Expects Recovery in Mid-2009
Bank of America's Lewis Expects Recovery in Mid-2009 (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
``Until then, depending on what sector of the economy you're in, it will feel slow and may feel like a recession,'' Lewis, 61, said today in prepared remarks in Los Angeles.
Ah an optimist.
will take prices down another 5%-to-10% nationally and end next Spring - in a best case scenario
MORE EXPENSIVE = GOOD in Corcoran's world.
Let prices fall to levels that sensible lending can support.
People got underwater due to suicide lending. This was entirely foreseeable.
@2:45 Corcoran lies and implies sales are up, when seasonal May -> June trending dominates actual sales-action. Plus wasn't July down from June?
House Whisperer, Thanks for the nice comments! It sounds like you are buying for the right reason - with reasonable expectations for the near term.
Best Wishes!
LOL at ending, host:
"Let's hope for [higher housing prices]"
Uncle Billy, where are you?
Time Out London Asks New York Punk Stand-Up Comic Ed Hamell To Explain The Differences Between US and British Humour
Here are some things I definitely know about American versus British humour. We find British teeth funny. This was proven with the success of Austin Powers and reinforced when Lisa Simpsons orthodontist showed her The Big Book of British Teeth. Also we dont understand jokes about soccer. Or football as you call it. Not that Im an expert on any sports. What I know about them you could fit on a midgets shirt button. (Actually the politically correct term is little person. I have a friend thats a little person so I know that now. Well shes not really
a friend, she more like a shag buddy.)
I dont know what the British think is funny about Americans. Theyre probably too polite to tell me to my face. Heres something they might
find funny: George Bush says if one more person compares him to Hitler hes going to gas them. Did you find that funny? They wouldnt over here. How about this? Two Middle Eastern fathers are comparing pictures of their sons who are terrorists. One of the dads says, Ah, they blow up so fast. Do you find that funny?
I remember seeing Barbara blabbing about homes a couple of years ago. Seems she still is blabbing. But, of course, that is what most real estate agents do.
Very pretty cascade of colour here:
Invalid Ticker Symbol - Yahoo! Finance
"Bank of America's Lewis Expects Recovery in Mid-2009"
Bottom!
House Whisperer, Thanks for the nice comments! It sounds like you are buying for the right reason - with reasonable expectations for the near term.
And the ability to ride out a further decline.
BTW- the Chrysler building deal went through and it's now owned by Abu Dhabi.
Bear and REO fans :-
YouTube -
Enjoy.
Another slide:
Invalid Ticker Symbol - Yahoo! Finance
BB, it's fun watching the optimists slowly change their tunes ... but not fun thinking about the consequences.
I think it's debatable how deep this recession will be (Roubini says severe, I think less than severe, at least as far as unemployment) ... but I think it's becoming clear that the effects will linger for some time. That has been my forecast based on the nature of this downturn (not manufacturing led).
And in many ways a lingering recession is very painful. This means people that do lose their jobs might be unemployed for an extended period - and that will hurt.
I remember the double dip recession of the early '80s with many homeless people living in encampments with signs that read "Reaganville" (a take off on Hoovervilles from the Depression).
That recession lingered too ... and was very deep (with double digit unemployment). Hopefully this one won't be that bad.
best to all.
Does anybody have a video of Ms. Corcoran when she was touting real estate on Fox Business News block on Saturday mornings a couple of years ago? It sounds like all she wants is massive government bailouts to prop up the ridiculous bubble prices.
upgraded cowbell: YouTube - More Cowbell 2.0!
BTW I just noticed on WSJ that the S&P 500 is finally in bear market territory.
Does anybody have a video of Ms. Corcoran when she was touting real estate on Fox Business News block on Saturday mornings a couple of years ago? It sounds like all she wants is massive government bailouts to prop up the ridiculous bubble prices.
Corcoran was on Fox News? There goes her credibility...
Defense Secretary Robert Gates on Wednesday reopened a bitter $35 billion aerial tanker contest after the selection process that picked Northrop Grumman Corp and EADS over Boeing Co was found to be flawed.
The contest will now be overseen by John Young, the Pentagon's chief weapons buyer, not the Air Force, and Gates hoped a decision could be reached by December since the current process had already "gone on far too long."
Pentagon reopening contest to build aerial tankers
| Reuters
Campaign contributions and bribes now being accepted. The rot in this country is on the vine. Short Bucky!
Why doens't she suggest that sellers lower their selling price? We don't need any government bail out! She is still in denial!
Death of the American Dream?--
So the years spin by and now the boy is twenty
Though his dreams have lost some grandeur
Coming true
There'll be new dreams, maybe better dreams and plenty
Before the last revolving year is through.
And the seasons they go round and round
And the painted ponies go up and down
Were captive on the carousel of time
We cant return, we can only look behind
From where we came
And go round and round and round
In the circle game-Joni Mitchell
CR,
Authorities in LA have already closed down one Bushville, as reported by the BBC not the US MSM.
Most of the people living in tents and cars had lost their homes in the inland empire
Calculated Risk writes:
That recession lingered too ... and was very deep (with double digit unemployment). Hopefully this one won't be that bad.
A lot will depend on the policies being formulated now by the powers that be.
But as always, in adversity there is opportunity. So yes maybe deep down i am an optimist.
Something big is about to happen. Don't know what, don't know exactly when. But the CR indicator has had unusually high volume as of late.
Our bear den is getting crowded waiting for the POP!
In Portland, OR they call them "Dignity Villages".
ac writes:
BTW I just noticed on WSJ that the S&P 500 is finally in bear market territory.
Needs to finish another day at these levels.
The faster the crash comes the better. Don't like things to be long and drawn out.
The real demons were the mortgage brokers,
realtors, lenders, underwriters,
appraisers, bond pushers, schools,
and non-regulators.
They knew what was happening.
Some home buyers could barely read,
even if they had a HS diploma.
... Now they must must learn the
three R's as post-grads.
_
Am long for metals. Think the USD has a ways to go yet.
BB | 07.09.08 - 4:46 pm | #
I love metals and oil... but bubbles have to burst. That's why I temporarily switched to the bear gold ETF. Made a good 12% in 2 days before exiting.
You're right about the USD... it has nowhere to go but down. It seems to be takeing the Canadian dollar down with it.
Merrill, Blackrock Set Talks for Stake Sale
Merrill, Blackrock Set Talks for Stake Sale - CNBC
Merrill Lynch has recorded more than $30 billion of writedowns since the third quarter of last year. The third largest U.S. broker-dealer is expected to have suffered in the second quarter as bond insurers lost their top ratings and the structured credit market weakened.
Merrill Lynch sold its investment management business to BlackRock in 2006 in exchange for shares in the asset manager, whose funds it distributes.
This is just the beginning ...
While a vast majority believes we will inflate our way out of this, deflation is on the way.
M1 is actually falling these days and not even Bernanke's bailouts will stop it.
This shill was on Larry King a few weeks ago telling everyone that they should take out the equity in their homes and use it to buy another house in their neighborhood. Unfortunately, she didn't say what to do with it...
Why would this be a good thing for the country?
Well it might be a learning experience of sorts. Learning experiences are often painful.
Canadian watching with popcorn writes:
? id=643361
Canada now creeping to the edge...........
http://www.financialpost.com/sto....html
I've always said that the 40 year mortgage was the Canadian subprime. Canadian who couldn't afford a house merely chose to amortize over longer periods of time. I'd see borrowers not give a damn about the $100,000s extra they'd be paying for extra amort period. All they'd care about is whether they could make the new lower monthly payments.
Of course, realtors pushed for the higher amort periods so that more people could qualify for ridiculously overpriced homes. More buyers + meme that real estate only goes up = greater price appreciation and less affordability.
I love the fact that my government is kicking out the legs from under the housing industry now that Ontario is in a recession (you Americans aren't buying any of our cars don't you know). Even in my oil-shiekdom of Alberta, house prices are falling.
Hey America, do you want company on the way down?
Suze Orman: Where to put your money now - CNN.com
This and Corcoran are idiots. They have steered and continue to steer simpletons into a train wreck. "Never try to time the market. Make timely contributions irrespective of market movement. Use mutual funds, blah, blah, blah."
Fat Cats love them--their providing nearly endless new money to a tanking system. Fools, greater fools, and blathering no-nothings.
Deflation in fixed assets, RE, equipment, autos, durables, luxuries. Inflation in food, energy, basic materials, essential services. BB needs to keep inflation rate higher than deflation; otherwise his marginally effective monetary policy is KAPUT!
I love the fact that my government is kicking out the legs from under the housing industry ...
You know something, I have been waiting for this moment for 3 years now.
The fraudent practices of the Canadian banks is finally coming back to bite them in the ass.
Interesting Times writes:
I love metals and oil... but bubbles have to burst.
If oil doesn't get to 130 soon, am afraid it'll only go higher.
Problem is geopolitical risk is increasing even when demand destruction is occurring.
There arent enough brave souls to stem the decline which Corcoran says will take prices down another 5%-to-10% nationally and end next Spring - in a best case scenario.
Oh, cry me a river!
We've become a disposable culture:
In a culture where selfish and nearly sociopathic behavior is considered "normal" if not "competitive," how can anyone be surprised by people walking away from their underwater loans?
I am actually glad they are doing it since it is perhaps the only chance the "little guy" has to screw the money-lenders who created this Ponzi scheme while bankrupting a nation in the process. It is amusing when greedy, stupid people end up screwing over greedy and arrogant people.
BB - we will know the depression has started when bonds blow up.
Unfortunately, other things might be blowing up at the same time...
Fannie will now purchase 40 year fixed-rate mortgages and 40-year hybrid adjustable rate mortgages (ARMS) with initial fixed periods of three, five, seven, or ten years. Not included in the new purchase standards are biweekly mortgage products, loans secured by manufactured housing, loan to value ratios greater than 95%; and ARMS with initial fixed rate periods shorter than three years (including the popular 1-year ARM) or with any subsequent adjustment period greater or less than one year. Also on the no-fly list are negative amortization loans.
[read this listening to Kremer's Silencio]
Now we face a time to decide if we are a
real nation, though one taken from tribes.
Formed in brutal revolution; held in civil war;
sustained with death and wounds in France,
Italy, Iwo, Pusan, Hue; deserted in Baghdad.
Or if we are a circus of self-servers, lacking
knowledge, ethics, community, and higher
purposes, who would neglect New Orleans,
children, and others now suffering.
Ooopps that was from 3 year ago....LOL! I love these old stories!!
http://www.thelongwaveanalyst.ca/winterwatch/WW_March22_05_print.htm
Fannie Mae has just reintroduced the 40 year mortgage to make housing more affordable. This according to Eric Englund is a desperate measure to keep expanding its own balance sheet in order to maintain its solvency. The company has a debt to equity ratio of 43-1, which is massive leverage. Fannie Mae retains a $900 billion mortgage portfolio and in addition guarantees $1.3 trillion in mortgage backed securities. Eric believes it is a matter of when, not if, the credit bubble bursts and mortgages go into default, Fannie Mae's equity position would be decimated. In the end the boom-bust cycle (as brought on by central banking) cannot be repealed. When the bust hits, Fannie Mae's extremely leveraged balance sheet will collapse like a house of cards - forty-year mortgages be damned. Ibid. 1.Fannie Mae Resurrects the Forty-Year Mortgage in an Attempt to Remain Solvent. Eric Englund. www. financialsense.com
Steve & Barry's, Discount Retailer, Seeks Bankruptcy
Steve & Barry's, Discount Retailer, Seeks Bankruptcy (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
The company, based in Port Washington, New York, listed debts and assets of $500 million to $1 billion in Chapter 11 documents filed today in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Manhattan. Sixty-three affiliates also filed.
Houses are cheaper so the American Dream ends.
Yeah, that makes sense.
Iran Gen.: Our finger is always on the trigger
Iran Gen.: Our finger is always on the trigger - CNN.com
This sort of headlines from CNN seems a bit irresponsible.
Currently Choking On Bullshit
The British think vomiting (or "getting sick") is very very funny; I suspect it is because it is socially embarrassing and they think being embarrassed socially is hilarious. It needs the context of a very proper, appearance obsessed, and rigid society. In Brideshead Revisited, Sebastian met the guy he fell in love with when he vomited into his rooms at Oxford through the window when drunk.
Pondering the Mess, and you wonder why the Muslims consider the USA the great satan? Because we are.
Some dumbshit on CNBC was proclaiming a bottom, because in all the last 5 or 6 bear markets, it was a bottom and buying opportunity.
Except he's a dumbass, because 73-74 had the markets down nearly 50%. And he's an even bigger dumbshit because the problems behind this bear market are much much bigger than any since the 30's. And this one is even worse than that one by a large amount. No PPT can stop this upcoming decline. No chance.
The Democratic-led Congress this afternoon voted to put an end to the NSA spying scandal, as the Senate approved a bill -- approved last week by the House -- to immunize lawbreaking telecoms, terminate all pending lawsuits against them, and vest whole new warrantless eavesdropping powers in the President. The vote in favor of the new FISA bill was 69-28. Barack Obama joined every Senate Republican (and every House Republican other than one) by voting in favor of it, while his now-vanquished primary rival, Sen. Hillary Clinton, voted against it.
Obama's vote in favor of cloture, in particular, cemented the complete betrayal of the commitment he made back in October when seeking the Democratic nomination. Back then, Obama's spokesman -- in response to demands for a clear statement of Obama's views on the spying controversy after he had previously given a vague and noncommittal statement -- issued this emphatic vow:
To be clear: Barack will support a filibuster of any bill that includes retroactive immunity for telecommunications companies.
Here it is baby, the smoking gun left behind with Greenspan prints!!!
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
International Finance Discussion Papers
Number 841
September 2005
House Prices and Monetary Policy: A Cross-Country Study
Alan G. Ahearne, et al...
Like other asset prices, house prices are influenced by interest rates, and in some
countries, the housing market is a key channel of monetary policy transmission. Indeed, house
prices appear to be associated with business-cycle movements in a number of real variables, such
as consumption and investment. Nevertheless, there is no consensus as to whether
accommodative policy has contributed to excess volatility in house or other asset prices, either recently or in previous episodes. Because house prices, monetary variables and macroeconomic aggregates also move in response to other shocks hitting the economy, the direction or extent of causality between these variables can be difficult to disentangle.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2005/841/ifdp841.pdf
Hoenig: Fed Should Hike Rates 'As Soon As Possible'
Interest Rates and Fed: Hoenig Says Fed Should Hike Rates 'As Soon As Possible' - CNBC
More talk but will Ben listen, sometimes you need a Frenchman at the helm.
The lesson of the past two days is not to cover your financial/RE shorts on the rare day they go up.
Interesting Times writes:
I love the fact that my government is kicking out the legs from under the housing industry ...
You know something, I have been waiting for this moment for 3 years now.
The fraudent practices of the Canadian banks is finally coming back to bite them in the ass.
You, Canadian watching with popcorn, and I should strike out on our own and create calculatedrisk.ca
The VIX is being played by hedges and the dollah will go up, oil down, then as the recession wakes up more people, the current Congress, Senate & Bush/McCain Coup will find itself voted out of power.
meanwhile, it has been both suggested and alleged that Cindy McCain is currently preserved in oil and thought to be a vampire (for what it's worth).
Im with you Greg. Made me want to cry watching SRS just keep going down yesterday. But I told myself, if it goes down all fricking day, Im buying big one minute before the close. And today, I sold all of it plus the new shares one minute before the close. It was like watching this time lapse picture in reverse today. I just kept laughing to myself that it couldnt reverse all day, and kept watching it do just that.
Now...when to get back in? This was probably the scariest rollercoaster yet, but there was good reason to believe yesterday was a pumpty dumpty day, so I figured, why not try to take advantage of it.
Demand destruction is real.
I drove halfway around the outer loop of the DC beltway yesterday at 4:50 PM at full speed--it was creepy as hell.
The lesson of the past two days is not to cover your financial/RE shorts on the rare day they go up.
Yesterday I broke the rules and doubled down. I wasn't sure then (they say that's a good sign), but I'm glad today that I did it.
Dick Bove is on Bubblevision and he says "no problem, you sissies"
I sure feel better.
Curious, I think a bunch of us broke the rules yesterday, because it was just a totally ridiculous burst of buying. No good reason, other than the laughable stories about covered bonds, and the Fed's continued "we're here to help" BS. It had the stink of dump on retail bagholders written all over it. Stick to your convictions. This market is headed well lower. Yes, there will be bursts of upward movement, but none will have the legs of the MidMarch rally. That was really unfun to sit through. But if you didnt bail, you came out way ahead.
Macy's day sale is appropriate....Macy's has a 200% mark up from cost, so a 50% off sale is still knife catching.
KnotRP writes:
Macy's day sale is appropriate....Macy's has a 200% mark up from cost, so a 50% off sale is still knife catching.
IS Macy in real trouble?
Yahoo video sucks so bad it hurts.
Why does Microsoft want to buy them again?
Going long at the close or first thing in the morning was the only move to make. Short term, long term what the hell, this market has a long way to go down. Cover when you are throwing up. And, it allways feels like this.
then, do it again.
Gotta watch Cramer now.
jim, nicely put, but wasn't it Sebastian at Ryder's window? Never mind.
Actually, I see that's what you said - too many pronouns.
Corcoran was totally drunk on the punch two years agoon Fox News. She practically jumped out of her panty hose at Jim Rogers when he said it was a bubble that would eventually burst.
Nice to see that Babs has finally sobered up and is attending her AA meetings.
P.S. Around the same time Jim Rogers said that Fannie Mae was a $15 stock. Seems like he got it right on both counts.
I wouldn't trust jim rogers considering his pumping of the Chinese stock market.
Last time I checked it was down more than housing was this year.
PS
I am a bear
SN I dislike Jim Rogers
They killed the American Dream back in the 90's when they first started blowing this bubble.
The American Dream was to OWN a home, as in, mortgage paid off.
Taking on a bloated mortgage that you have no chance of ever paying off never was the American Dream - though it may have been dreamy for the lenders for a while, til it blew up in their faces.
They took the American Dream and turned it into the American Nightmare.
Congress needs to get out of the way and give us our freaking DREAM back.
Let the market correct and get back in line with people's income.
Ha! You can call this number and leave a message with President Bush's office to VETO Congresses' latest attempt to prop the American Nightmare up, (the Housing Bailout Bill):
1-202-456-1111
A really nice lady answers the phone and takes your message. Quick and easy.
I want to see Barbara Corcoran and Suze Orman go at it in a cage match.
Each may arm herself with an Amex Centurion Card and a copy of Dow 36,000 (hardcover, naturally). D.R. Horton will design the cage so that it's a cross between a medieval dungeon and a Dairy Queen -- quite like its houses, come to think of it.
Until that happens, HC's American Dream ain't dead, baby -- not by a longshot!
CCOB...Also we dont understand jokes about soccer. Or football as you call it.
ROFL, love that US perspective. The World calls it football, you guys call it soccer
From this side of the pond, vacant retail CRE is solidly reported up 26% since Jan 08. Here we go..
Uhhh...the american dream was to work hard, save, and one day own a home.
It was never to sneak across the border at night, lie on a mortgage application, and buy a McMansion you couldnt afford in the hopes you could get profit from its appreciation over a short term.
HC | 07.09.08 - 9:10 pm | #
you have some scary dreams, mister.
only 5 or 10 percent lower from here?
Not even close. I frankly expect 70% lower from here, at least in California. (My prediction: $92/sf average by May 2011).
Hint: Don't walk on sidewalks next to tall buildings.