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down 234...
hummmm
guess the plunge protection team cant get it up...i mean keep it up anymore!?
ps
not first
whos on first?
whats on second
i dunnos on third
OT:
Steele takes over WB:
Wachovia Names Treasury's Steel Chief, Posts Loss (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
Smells like the end to me...
"Steele takes over WB"
The revolving door between Washington and Wall Street this is the fleecing of the American public in action.
They're still planning new motels in my town. But since we're a beach resort town 30 miles from a huge metropolitan area, and people are cutting back on longer trips... might work out for them.
On our recent trip between northwest Washington state and the Grand Tetons, the proliferation of big motels at every small-town interstate interchange was striking. Lots of these were empty space just a year or two ago. Will these turn out to be a good investment if today's gas prices are the new normal?
Fourth of July at the Disneyland Resort - fireworks halted mid-show; attendance well below normal
Disneyland Park Update (Disneyland Resort Update) by MousePlanet Staff
The Fourth of July weekend brought smaller-than-usual crowds to the Disneyland Resort, though the dense cluster of visitors camping out on Main Street to get the best view of the fireworks made Disneyland feel more crowded than normal for a Friday. Cast members don't know whether to attribute the slack attendance to economic concerns, hot weather, or a perception that the park would be too crowded to visit, but attendance numbers were low even for a non-holiday summer weekend. Visitors at Disney's California Adventure said the park was relatively uncrowded, with waits for the popular new Toy Story Midway Mania attraction under 45 minutes for most of the day.
DiClemente also said that although Disney's theme parks appear to have been insulated from the broader economic downturn so far, attendance may soon begin to decline as the price of flights to Orlando - home of its Walt Disney World parks - continue to rise amid airline capacity cuts
"The revolving door between Washington and Wall Street this is the fleecing of the American public in action."
Just for review, although both parties are involved not just Shrub's:
Goldman's top alumni wield White House clout
InfoViewer: Goldman's top alumni wield White House clout...
Conjure Bag smells fear.
How about this one.....
Most Businesses are Steve and Berry's.
A little thread music...
YouTube -
I have several friends that own condos along the east coast of Fl. They said summer rentals were way off.
One said they had not gotten any so far. The also said they could not afford to keep them without the rentals.
Lending standards are tightening dramatically in hotel. We are back to 65% LTV - which is the historical standard. Full recourse and cross-collateralization are coming back as well.
Loan transaction volume in hotel is off 75% according to Susan Mellon at HVS...for Q1 2008 vs. Q1 2007.
Airline capacity cuts are going to be an issue for hotel, particularly in Upscale and Mid w/o F&B. See this PFK report.
PKF Study Finds U.S. Hotels Extremely Vulnerable To Sharp Declines In Airline Capacity / July 2008
At the same time we have a wave of hotels coming online, we have a wave of stuck condo owners hoping to rent. Yikes.
o no no
i'm building a hotel
never mind
it didnt happen
just kidding
or am i
on which part?
RRBAZ:
65% ltv i can handle
cross collateralization i can't
this is why, one deal, one bank, period.
never two deals with one bank.
Welcome to the new world order. Maybe we can count on Chinese and Dubaiian visitors to fill the hotels? This is what the Republicans have strived for, a complete collapse of the American Dream. Mission Accomplished!
dc1000:
Just make sure that you have a decent continental breakfast, government rates and shuttle service to the FDIC offices.
If we're lucky, you can have some to the Justice Dept too.
dc1000 - no doubt , single asset structures are preferred... my take is 6-9-12 months from now it will be harder and harder to get, as liquidity for hotel development/finance is going to be even more challenging. Today and tomorrow, the deals that get done will be in the best locations, with the best, proven operators, carrying the best flags (Marriott, Hilton etc)
Conjure recommends using these cheap hotels as public assistance housing.
Cynical Yes- "...a complete collapse of the American Dream."
That happened in 1976, but most were unaware of it as they didn't didn't get the memo. You evidently didn't get a copy either.
mp
is Conjure sure he wants to hold C for the long term?
If we can slide over to office buildings for a second, this just in:
"Maguire Will Take Loss on Buildings Sale
Maguire Properties Inc. has disclosed in a regulatory filing that it will lose as much as $53 million on two buildings that it agreed to sell this week."
When we travel we never rent hotel rooms if the stay is more than 5 days.
Especially in Europe.
I do a fair amount of business travel which means hotels. If it was not for the Europeans they would have been at 50% occupancy.
Funny, but the Germans queue very nicely for breakfast. The English are easy to spot. They are the short white people surounding the smoking areas. They are also somewhat difficult to tell apart from the homeless on the west coast.
rocket shot in SRS today impressive.
idoc- "is Conjure sure he wants to hold C for the long term?"
idoc, Conjure unloaded C two months ago when the rally fizzled. It was discussed here.
Conjure recommends using these cheap hotels as public assistance housing.
Motel 8 Section 8 ?
Cheap motels are homeless shelters in No. VA.
mp
my faith in Conjure has been restored.
idoc, the situation is always changing, and that's why we're here--to stay on top of it.
Ray, there's a private equity shop called Century Park Capital Partners that just invested a ton of money in another company called "Moss, Inc." which is a tent manufacturer (for exhibitions, etc. big tents). I wonder if the tent manufacturers are ramping up.
Conjure and I have been all cash ever since, and we'll remain that way until the situation shows signs of sorting itself out.
It is too volatile now.
mp
i'm just playing with you
Conjures knowledge base has always impressed me.
"the situation is always changing"
i think you mean "is always challenging".
now if i can only get you and ipodius to believe in oil and glod...
rocket shot in SRS today impressive.
it was just a bounce back to where it was yesterday AM.
But having gotten in it at the opening, yes, that was fun. I actually took a nap this AM cuz the suspense of which way it was going to move was killing me.
I know that where I reside - Whorelando, Florida - we saw the 3rd largest yoy increase in unemployment rate for any U.S. metro region May/07 to May/08, so I wouldn't be surprised if hotels are suffering and laying off Mexicans who don't work construction.
Troy
all yesterday i was adding in shorts until the end of day pump. thought i was going to die but was so pissed i shorted Leh right into the close.
couldn't sleep all nite and am breathing a sigh of relief now.
RRBAZ:
good thing we have one of the preeminent operators/flags/brands behind us. just a matter of building the F'er.
operator/management company in place prior to construction with them on the line.
even during the 'boom' i barely dug a shovel without a presale/prelease or some other commitment
thats not to say my national home builder isnt defaulting at times....
SS and Anonymous
Here is the pearl within the article:
Steel certainly has a great background,'' said Gary Townsend, a former bank analyst who is co-founder of Hill- Townsend Capital LLC, a Chevy Chase, Maryland-based investment firm.The downside is that he's never run a commercial bank.''
I was reading that vegas occ. rates were 80%; time to start sniffing around for casinos to short?
OT
In Pamplona for San Fermin and the odd thing is(besides having Chuck Berry play a gig) is the CRE implosion. Vacancy rates must be 15% in the town center. Barcelona was fine so was Zaragoza, going to San Sebastian next week.
Alec
MGM and LVS have been plummeting. WYNN is dropping as well but is still the most overvalued of all of them. they still have room to fall.
MGM is the most exposed to Vegas itself.
Hmmm what to do with all those vacant hotels and resorts...
Nuke 'em Nuke 'em Nuke 'em Nuke 'em Nuke 'em Nuke 'em Nuke 'em Nuke 'em Nuke 'em Nuke 'em Nuke 'em Nuke 'em
What to do with Orlando, Florida...
Nuke it Nuke it Nuke it Nuke it Nuke it Nuke it Nuke it Nuke it Nuke it Nuke it Nuke it Nuke it Nuke it Nuke it Nuke it Nuke it
I'm sorry, I'm drawing a blank here.
Good to hear dc1000! Sounds like your game is tight.
Are condo-hotels listed in the hotel category for these stats or are they part of residential?
Lots of expensive condo-hotels were built during the past few years. I don't think we'll see too many more in the near future. And whoever bought them were fools - the return on those is terrible unless there is massive appreciation.
``The downside is that he's never run a commercial bank.''
I figure he's there to create an exit strategy for the bank.
Stayed at a Hyatt Resort Spa on the Eastern Shore of MD for the 4th of July this year. Folks that worked there said that last year the places was full before the holiday kicked off. This year it filled on the day of the 4th. Restaurants/Spa/Salon/tour boats all had plenty of vacancies and taking walk ins right away. They said last year you could not eat w/o a reservation and the spa/salon & tour boats were all fully booked. So folks shaved off one day & cut out the extras and just hung out by the pool and ate at restaurants off the resort.
Congratulations to everyone who held short overnight in the face of yesterday's pump. If we crash tomorrow or Friday, you will be richly rewarded.
Here's an update on WCI:
WCI offers to trade old debt for new debt
My take is these guys are finished. $125 million in debt callable on Aug. 5, which they are proposing to swap for new debt at 16% interest.
Don't worry about Wynn, he's already got most of his wealth in $80 Million paintings (weird to think of paintings as "money" when their value is so subjective). As long as he keeps his arms at his sides he should be ok.
cs
seems so long ago last yr when John Najarian on Fast Money was pumping WCI.
Geez, are there really three of us here building hotels? LOL! Remember, gentlemen, there is always room for one more development: mine!
Flags? We don't need no stinking flags!
idoc - a WCI bankruptcy should be a real spectacle. Apparently Wachovia is one of their main creditors ...
No surprise for me...I was in Boise Idaho last month at a brand new hotel (guessing 150 - 200 rooms) and there were never more than 15 to 20 cars in the parking lot at any point (and before you ask, this was no where near the airport)
cs
the banks and underwriters have a vested interest in propping up the HB stocks which is why we haven't seen a BK yet. the first one to blow will cause a mini explosion across all indices. we are close.
Still very busy in the Carolinas. Lots to bid. It actually has picked up some in July: from busy back to semi-frenetic.
But we are all waiting to see how the other shoe drops.
So why isn't nightly rate dropping. Maybe it's just my travel pattern, but I am not seeing drastic dropping in hotel per night rates. And that include back channels like Priceline.
Back in 2003-4, dot com bust combined with new rooms started during the boom coming online means there were excess hotel room inventory at Silicon Valley. I was able to get hotel rooms during the weekdays for between $15-35/night. So instead of commuting from East Bay, I bid for week day nights for about a year and half until renting became the cheaper option.
I am not seeing hotel rate dropping that much maybe at $80-100 at low range. And New York City haven't drop so far.
Note: "The homebuilder said in a release that it would exchange all of its outstanding 4 percent contingent convertible senior subordinate notes due 2023 for new 16 percent senior secured notes due 2013."
ADR (rate) has held up across the board so far in 2008. The franchisors and operators got stung badly after 9/11 when they tried to induce demand and drive occupancy by lowering rate. It didn't work. So, learning the lesson... the plan is to hold the line on rate through this downturn, even while occ drops, thereby keeping revPAR (occ x adr) at a slightly positive or zero growth rate (obviously negative real). We'll see what happens. ADR has historically done well throughout inflationary cycles also. So we'll see which force is stronger. Either way, revPAR is going to be challenged because occupancy is sliding faster than the major forecasters (PKF, STR) had originally called for at the beginning of the year.
Just made August reservations for a beachfront hotel in Redondo Beach using Expedia...at 30% off the AAA/AARP rate.
OTOH... bought my first 1.5 qt "half-gallon" (down from 1.75 qts) of ice cream last night.
It's nice that luxuries such as hotels are cheaper, but when the necessities (ice cream) go up it really hurts.
Yikes
From WSJ:
The Bush administration has held talks about what to do in the event mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac falter, according to three people familiar with the matter, as the stock prices of both companies continue to fall sharply.
These discussions have been going on for months and are part of normal contingency planning that the Treasury Department and other financial regulators regularly undertake. The talks have become more serious recently given the financial woes of the shareholder-owned, government-chartered companies, whose stability is vital to the functioning of the nation's housing market, these people say.
Plenty of room at the Hotel California,
Such a lovely place...
The Bush administration has held talks about what to do in the event mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac falter, according to three people familiar with the matter, as the stock prices of both companies continue to fall sharply.
Bush: So, Ben, what do we do when Fannie and Froodie go under?
Ben: Buy them.
Bush: Buy them?
Ben: Buy them. Don't worry about the dollar.
Bush: Hank, get the Presidential wallet. I'll make the announcement from an aircraft carrier.
Off Topic
Congratulations on the McGriddle adds. I hope you're raking in the ad revenue.
My only wish is that Bush would have to stay, FDR-style, in office for the next 8 years to actually have to deal with all the policy disasters he's been creating. Believe it or not, Bush is going to be the age that FDR died, 63, next year.
Well, my SDS position wishes that too, I guess.
well looks like the dems have tons off egg on their face too for not impeaching the bush... they may deserve the win in Nov...
Norman...norman...
Thread music
YouTube - Psycho Theme
Cheers,
Just proves what I've been saying, it's crazy to try to time this market.
SRS pretty much recouped today what it lost yesterday. The same with TWM. So, you're a fool for setting stop losses or bailing out into fear.
I am now smelling an epic market decline within the next 30-60 days. Volatility is rising, which is a prerequisite. Pump n dums are getting spikier, which is another sign. Just grab those shorts and ultra shorts and hold onto your socks for a memorable ride down. It will happen soon. Then, it will be a great time to go to cash or even some longs.
adam smith,
"The Bush administration has held talks about what to do in the event mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac falter"
Shrub: First I heard of it.
BB: You should pay more attention.
Shrub: Shaddap you. OK, I'm a bit confused...
HP: Really (rolls eyes).
Shrub: I'm warning you. I can declare you an enemy combatant. Anyway I confused, what does this whole "falter" thing mean.
BB: You graduated from Yale Moe...erm...sir?
Shrub: Yeah.
HP: Falter means fail. Collapse. etc.
Shrub: Well this Fanny May girl does she?
BB: Huh?
Shrub: Put out you nitwit. I don't really care about this Freddy Mac fellow. Never liked the Irish much anyway.
HP: We need to go back to the beginning ben.
BB: (Presses face into hands)!
Cheers,
If Fannie puts out, does that make her a whore?
A whore in the White House. Now that will be a first.
OT Indymac
What do our friends at the NYT say about this?
Mortgage Lender Faces Rush to Withdraw
What I liked:
IndyMac is a casualty of the lax lending standards that symbolized the excesses of the subprime market. As home prices soared in recent years, IndyMac carved out a lucrative niche in so-called Alt-A mortgages. Such loans, made to people whose credit is just above subprime, usually do not require borrowers to provide proof of savings or incomes.
But when the housing bubble burst, many Alt-A borrowers were unable or unwilling to pay their mortgages.
OK, so I learn: It's really because of the excesses of those subprime lenders, to "just above subprime" folks, who probably live right down the street (if you know what I mean) from the "subprime" folks, and we know already how they were "unwilling to pay their mortgages". Probably told Indymac's borrowers about how to walk away while they were bowling.
Is that it?
Hotels are something I know about - usually stay between 100-150 nights a year.
Not now - working the internets way more due to $5 diesel and high room rates. My guess is I'll be down to less than 75 stays this year. But still, the combination of gas & higher rates will mean those 75 stays will cost as much or more than the 150 stays I used to do a few years ago... but I refuse to just throw the cash away.
Price signals work - did I ever tell you all about that?
And there is a glut of big mid-priced hotels out there... it seems to me the number of rooms available has doubled over the last 4-5 years. And they are nicer rooms - bigger, cleaner, better breakfasts... but I refuse to pay the rates they are asking.
I think there is going to be trouble in this sector - my gut says it will be LOTS worse than retail (but I don't consume 'retail' like I consume 'lodging' so can't really say).
"working the internets way more due to $5 diesel and high room rates"
How soon we forget. Remember the year after 9-11, when rooms were empty and rates were just a bit higher in a room than they were on the park bench across the street. Won't be long.
The last time I was in a hotel, a mirror fell off the ceiling and blew a hole in the water bed. I sleep in my truck now.
I worked in a hotel - Howard Johnson's - back in HS in the '70s. Manager could tell a shack-up as soon as they walked in the door and I got pretty good, too. Another clerk would actually sell at quarter rate for 6 hours use.
Even found that one of my Sunday School teachers was a customer.
We'd make the room over in four hours and sell it again. Had nights with 110% occupancy.
Great days, them.
homedad43
your daughter would be proud of you.
Tranches,
I'll see that vid and raise you
YouTube - The Stranglers - Duchess
"And it sounds like an empty house, standing still"
They're putting new hotels in our downtown, for what reason I haven't a clue. There are already a number of them. I expect the new ones will probably go bust eventually as we don't need all that hotel space. There's already a glut of restaurants chasing less and less business, with more on the way. They powers-that-be will put everything in our downtown area BUT retail. There's a crappy semi-enclosed mall there, but all of the quirky, interesting shops have been forced out by rental price hikes or by redevelopment destroying the buildings. They'll end up with block-long holes in the ground just like before.
We'd make the room over in four hours and sell it again. Had nights with 110% occupancy.
Great days, them.
homedad43 | Homepage | 07.09.08 - 10:33 pm | #
Its guys like you that make my stays on the road hell - some nights I have to take the ear plugs they hand out in the factory back to the hotel room just so I can get some sleep. Maybe you ought to have sold them too.
Maybe people should use their stimulus checks to spend a night in a hotel. And order room service.
"they may deserve the win in Nov"
Not to worry; with the help of Fox, Limbaugh, and their own political feckless ineptitude, the Democrats will repeat the 1988 come-from-ahead loss. McCain will have to deal with Bush's economic legacy.
The idea that somehow NYC would be immune from the forces of supply and demand in Real Estate has always been absolute nonsense. As a former New Yorker, I do understand the self centered nature of the NYC mindset that would lead to this conclusion.
I'm going long in lodging. FDIC employees have to stay somehwere when they swoop in to close banks.
Off-topic: This reminds me of when I traveled to Taiwan right after the Sars breakout. We got a fantastic deal to stay at the fancy Hilton, a place we would never have stayed at on our normal budget. It was freaking amazing. We got private tours of all the major temples because no other tourists were there and the hotel guides were just sitting around without any tourist groups to lead. The spa was free and fantastic, they had hot-tubs on the roof so we could see the whole city while we soaked. The bathroom was awesome. Definitely one of the highlights of the past ten years. Not that I would ever hope for another Sars outbreak, but we got a taste of the other side: it was delicious.