Still waiting for the bulk of '06 resets to hit just when unemployment actually begins to take off. Should be a nice perfect storm. Foreclose now or forever be priced in!
When people start talking in terms of decades.... wow. Welcome Bloomberg and Moody's. We've been here all along. From the article: "About $3.5 trillion in homeowner equity has been wiped out since the spring of 2006." Half way to my low estimate in only 27 months. Extrapolating exponential decay the remaining $3.5T of phantom wealth will take twice as long, 54 months, 4.5 years or Spring 2014.
LOL. Our overhyped economy backed down yesterday based in part on jitters over oil prices and Iran's missile launch... turns out the missile launch was Photoshopped...
July 10 (Bloomberg) -- UBS AG analysts cut their price target on Freddie Mac, the second-largest U.S. mortgage-finance company, to $10 from $28, citing growing credit losses and problems raising capital.
How bad can it get? According to the Census bureau Charlotte County,Fl has approx 96k housing units. Last year we had a shade over 2500 FC's. This year looks to be the same or slightly more. So lets say 5k in 2 years.
That is 5% of the housing stock...
There are empty homes sitting everywhere down here...
"UBS AG analysts cut their price target on Freddie Mac, the second-largest U.S. mortgage-finance company, to $10 from $28, citing growing credit losses and problems raising capital."
From the article: "About $3.5 trillion in homeowner equity has been wiped out since the spring of 2006." Half way to my low estimate in only 27 months. Extrapolating exponential decay the remaining $3.5T of phantom wealth will take twice as long, 54 months, 4.5 years or Spring 2014.
Ah, but how long will it take to come back?
Catching a falling knife is dangerous enough with stocks, but at least in that case the sharpest up-moves often come right off the bottom ... so there's some basis for it, however tenuous.
But in real estate? Come on. Is ANYONE out there naive enough to think that just because a property fell 30% in value in the last 12 months, there's a chance it will go up 30% in the next 12? Besides Ben Stein, I mean.
"Is ANYONE out there naive enough to think that just because a property fell 30% in value in the last 12 months, there's a chance it will go up 30% in the next 12?"
Sure, Phil Gramm. After all, the declines were all in our heads.
No wonder you guys are all screwed, look at all the old senile farts that are in charge. Don't they ever retire? They have a hard time just reading their speeches.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Thursday that U.S. mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are "adequately capitalized" in the face of a "challenging period."
I think the only reason the market hasn't dropped 200 points already is because of the Bernanke/Paulson puppet show. When it's over the masses will get restless.
You guys are next. Check out the inventory and overbuilds in Calgary and Edmonton. Also, inventory building rapidly in Vancouver (not to mention those recent condo tower receiverships!)
P.S. No more 40-yr amorts and 0 down loans in a few months (of course this is too little too late)
Hmmm...1.7 million foreclosures in '07. 281,100 FTC certified victims of ONE mortgage servicer (Fairbanks Capital Corp n/k/a Select Portfolio Servicing) in '04.
What if as much as 20% of '07's foreclosure action was actually based on manufactured - or more accurately fraudulent foreclosures?
Being from Ohio I was struck by the phrase" Cleveland is the foreclosure epic center"
As I read, looks like 1.5 million foreclosures with 2.5 million in the process.
This foreclosure/credit crisis has many sides that are all interconnected. What blew my doors off, is the fact that federally chartered savings bank( Countrywide CA; Washington Mutual WA; Am Trust OH) are not legally bound by federal consumer banking regulations, because there are none. These types of banks they operate with absolute impunity. They have no accountability to anyone. Their federal supervisor, the Office of Thrift Supervision has no authority to protect a borrower from unethical actions by a federally chartered savings bank. However by using the shield of secrecy (which is now labeled privacy); the OTS does protect the bank. The States have no authority over federal banks. This is verified by the fact that two States are now suing Countrywide, and if they win, new and bold case law would be established. I look for more State to join this lawsuit parade which will march on for years.
It does appear that nothing has changed since the last savings and loan crisis other than it is much worse. We see on the horizon where the Banks maybe violating TILA (truth in lending act) by freezing HELOCs. The list of unethical lending operations keeps growing like a ship without a rudder. Personally, I would agree with the many that say this foreclosure /credit crisis is only the very tip of the iceberg. If this current crisis was the Titanic, then the politicians would be on the lifeboats waving goodbye to the women and children who were left on the decks of the sinking USS Economy.
MLB
It's only the beginning.
.2% FC rate and it hasn't even gotten bad yet?
Hoo boy
Buy now, or be priced out forever.
However Moody's and the other "Shill" rating agencies won't be here in the next decade!
Still waiting for the bulk of '06 resets to hit just when unemployment actually begins to take off. Should be a nice perfect storm. Foreclose now or forever be priced in!
Foreclosure is the new black.
Black - it isn't just for funerals.
"well into the next decade"
And yet Phil Gramm says this is all in our heads.
Phil Gramm is right. It really is all in your heads!
How can you be priced out of something that keeps falling in value?
Rent now and buy a bundle later.
It's sarcasm, Bri.
A couple of years ago, "Buy now, or be priced out forever" was the RE/housing meme.
From CNN
Six months, 343,000 lost homes
Through the first half of 2008, the foreclosure rate shows little sign of letting up.
June swoon: Foreclosures and bank repossessions still up - Jul. 10, 2008
When people start talking in terms of decades.... wow. Welcome Bloomberg and Moody's. We've been here all along. From the article: "About $3.5 trillion in homeowner equity has been wiped out since the spring of 2006." Half way to my low estimate in only 27 months. Extrapolating exponential decay the remaining $3.5T of phantom wealth will take twice as long, 54 months, 4.5 years or Spring 2014.
LOL. Our overhyped economy backed down yesterday based in part on jitters over oil prices and Iran's missile launch... turns out the missile launch was Photoshopped...
In an Iranian Image, a Missile Too Many - The Lede Blog - NYTimes.com
lies, lies, lies, yeahhhh.
I wonder when somebody starts stealing blacktop from the ghost towns in the Inland Empire.
Tex Ritter Blood on the Saddle
YouTube -
Phil Gramm says we're "a nation of whiners".
Or is it whinners?
Big time Pump going on. Who could possibly be buying now?
UBS Cuts Freddie Mac Price Target to $10 as Credit Losses Grow
UBS Cuts Freddie Mac Price Target to $10 as Credit Losses Grow - Bloomberg.com
July 10 (Bloomberg) -- UBS AG analysts cut their price target on Freddie Mac, the second-largest U.S. mortgage-finance company, to $10 from $28, citing growing credit losses and problems raising capital.
"Hoo boy"
Alec | 07.10.08 - 9:31 am |
How bad can it get? According to the Census bureau Charlotte County,Fl has approx 96k housing units. Last year we had a shade over 2500 FC's. This year looks to be the same or slightly more. So lets say 5k in 2 years.
That is 5% of the housing stock...
There are empty homes sitting everywhere down here...
Chris
Petey Wheatstraw - I missed it. Sorry
HEHE I agree.
My obligatory "Realty Trash" comment.
Let's see, oil a little slack...missile launch 2.0.
That's better.
Should put us at $140 again.
"UBS AG analysts cut their price target on Freddie Mac, the second-largest U.S. mortgage-finance company, to $10 from $28, citing growing credit losses and problems raising capital."
Short UBS would be my recomendation.
From the article: "About $3.5 trillion in homeowner equity has been wiped out since the spring of 2006." Half way to my low estimate in only 27 months. Extrapolating exponential decay the remaining $3.5T of phantom wealth will take twice as long, 54 months, 4.5 years or Spring 2014.
Ah, but how long will it take to come back?
Catching a falling knife is dangerous enough with stocks, but at least in that case the sharpest up-moves often come right off the bottom ... so there's some basis for it, however tenuous.
But in real estate? Come on. Is ANYONE out there naive enough to think that just because a property fell 30% in value in the last 12 months, there's a chance it will go up 30% in the next 12? Besides Ben Stein, I mean.
Gramm calls slowdown "mental" - and America is a "Nation of Whiners"
Gramm calls slowdown 'mental' - Mike Allen - POLITICO.com
Too funny... The man that helped kill Glass Stegal and put a lot of these events in motion.
Ben seen circling 50th and 7th
"Is ANYONE out there naive enough to think that just because a property fell 30% in value in the last 12 months, there's a chance it will go up 30% in the next 12?"
Sure, Phil Gramm. After all, the declines were all in our heads.
The FED is angling for more power on capitol hill.
Lehman!@!@#^U%R&(&^)(^(&%#%#@%^_(*^)*^&$&%$@$@!
Just checked the chart and after a pop, the market is doing an Atlantic city diving show.
Wow.
BEN live on :-
Stock Market News, Business News, Financial, Earnings, World Market News and Information - CNBC.com
Click on the 'live' link.
In a few years we will be able to buy a house for a dollar. Or a Euro.
Let's find a town for all of us and call it Tantaville. Then sit back on the front porch and talk about the good ol' days.
Freddie is down 26% to around 7 bucks now and Fannie down 15% to around 13 bucks.
Lehman in freefall, won't make the weekend!
RUMOR!
capitulate biatches...
TNX and TYX in free fall.
You inflationists can run and hide.
Deflation is coming.
what is going on at LEH
omg...
check options series for July
to use kitesurf lingo.... Unhooked!
As goes housing, so goes the economy -right down the bowl.
Freddie just lost 30%... i smell bailout soon.
FRE down 29%. Next stop: zero.
DOW go to %&#@)$ hell! And ($#!$>{ PPT, may you rot your )^&&# sorry %^&%^(}]! Damn capitulation, ^$*# when are you coming?
Fuckers...
I'll jump in as well. FNM and FRE declines are impressive - I agree they're heading for federal intervention.
"Freddie just lost 30%... i smell bailout soon."
So we go from a bankrupt GSE to a bankrupt government running a printing press. There ain't no free luncho
CR, I love you, but this isn't a newsflash. Any juicy LEH rumours to report?
New thread! And it's important... they want more powers!!!
No wonder you guys are all screwed, look at all the old senile farts that are in charge. Don't they ever retire? They have a hard time just reading their speeches.
Bill Miller another strong pick on FNM (added 35m shares)...
Paulson's jawbone really moves the market.
just wait til they stop talking.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Thursday that U.S. mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are "adequately capitalized" in the face of a "challenging period."
Business finance news - currency market news - online UK currency markets - financial news - Interactive Investor
Run like hell!
While Paulson speaks, BB works the PPT. When BB speaks, Paulson runs it.
Amazing!
I think the only reason the market hasn't dropped 200 points already is because of the Bernanke/Paulson puppet show. When it's over the masses will get restless.
I agree Gav. And if it's not today, then tomorrow.
There must be panic. Over 300 visitors online.
Thank God Barney Frank is in charge of this meeting. Hide the kids!
Hey Canadian,
You guys are next. Check out the inventory and overbuilds in Calgary and Edmonton. Also, inventory building rapidly in Vancouver (not to mention those recent condo tower receiverships!)
P.S. No more 40-yr amorts and 0 down loans in a few months (of course this is too little too late)
Hmmm...1.7 million foreclosures in '07. 281,100 FTC certified victims of ONE mortgage servicer (Fairbanks Capital Corp n/k/a Select Portfolio Servicing) in '04.
What if as much as 20% of '07's foreclosure action was actually based on manufactured - or more accurately fraudulent foreclosures?
Being from Ohio I was struck by the phrase" Cleveland is the foreclosure epic center"
As I read, looks like 1.5 million foreclosures with 2.5 million in the process.
This foreclosure/credit crisis has many sides that are all interconnected. What blew my doors off, is the fact that federally chartered savings bank( Countrywide CA; Washington Mutual WA; Am Trust OH) are not legally bound by federal consumer banking regulations, because there are none. These types of banks they operate with absolute impunity. They have no accountability to anyone. Their federal supervisor, the Office of Thrift Supervision has no authority to protect a borrower from unethical actions by a federally chartered savings bank. However by using the shield of secrecy (which is now labeled privacy); the OTS does protect the bank. The States have no authority over federal banks. This is verified by the fact that two States are now suing Countrywide, and if they win, new and bold case law would be established. I look for more State to join this lawsuit parade which will march on for years.
It does appear that nothing has changed since the last savings and loan crisis other than it is much worse. We see on the horizon where the Banks maybe violating TILA (truth in lending act) by freezing HELOCs. The list of unethical lending operations keeps growing like a ship without a rudder. Personally, I would agree with the many that say this foreclosure /credit crisis is only the very tip of the iceberg. If this current crisis was the Titanic, then the politicians would be on the lifeboats waving goodbye to the women and children who were left on the decks of the sinking USS Economy.
MLB