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I'm reposting this from an earlier thread, I'd really like to see this preserved:
Oh lord it's a Bush/Bernanke split screen. Please someone take a screen shot, quick (CNBC). Would make a great textbook illustration for the future.
Can I use this thread for other pointless things. If so, "First".
I'm speechless.
Oops. Third.
Somebody's cranky...
Hey, how about that Dow, huh?
As per above, including the little box showing the indices falling as they speak.
What do people prefer more, "B-52" or "Helicopter" as the nickname for Bernanke?
You should write for Leno, Tanta. It's a gift. A gift.
wow, ee, our own thread.
i don't even use vix,vxo and i feel this small(IMB), even smaller as (IDMC)
next thread, i'm done
I didn't realize we weren't supposed to talk about the market in other threads. I apologize!
This is just a mental recession and as per the new CEO study, most CEOs are mental.
Heh, heres a thought: Tie CEO comp to job and real wealth creation and forget about "packages" and "parachutes" and "entitlements".
So lets ask a basic question: Name 1 Fortune 50 CEO that could survive the competitive business landscape of China or India!
DOW to 9600.
someone's just a little bitchy.....
As if these events are not related.
Get over it
Ciao
MS
Chris Dodd has two kids that are like 3 and 5...
creepy.
"So lets ask a basic question: Name 1 Fortune 50 CEO that could survive the competitive business landscape of China or India!"
DOW to 9600.
Barley | 07.15.08 - 10:42 am | #
Fred Smith.
Chris
I think today is a special day for the market and it deserves it's own thread. I weep for my shares of SKF. Alas, I did not know you long enough and you took a little piece of my heart with you.
@MS: Uncalled for. Show some respect for the hosts. CR & Tanta provide a great service.
Thankyouthankyouthankyou... I almost posted something in the comments begging for a little relief of my own. Can we readers form a little vigilante group and start abusing those who ignore your gentle suggestion?
Shame this is just going to be a grinding drop downwards over the coming months, would like to have seen a good old fashioned 20%+ in one-day wipeout crash.
Interday volatility of the Dow is of limited interest, really... its the intraday volatility of the S&P500 (or S&P100) that is of interest...
More coffee for the blog mistress!
The company I work for is about to be bought out (shareholders vote in about 2 weeks), close ASAP afterward. The purchasing company has financing through BAC, but it took them a while to finalize the arrangements. I are just a dumb enginerd, could BAC's troubles impact the purchae?
Dodd will want to pump liquidity into Pfizer!
Name 1 Fortune 50 CEO that could survive the competitive business landscape of China or India!
Indra Nooyi, CEO of PepsiCo, but she's Indian.
i was not going to go there EE,
but i felt it...
dow vol, like , omg ..lol
the entire financial system is tied to home prices.....IF you think people are not going to comment about daily movements that are specifically related to current goings on in the market you need to get your head examined.
In the past the system was not set up this way...it is now so any movement in the market is a true reflection of where home prices (and loan availability) are headed.
No ill-will meant but it's just a little too precious to think that these events are not related.
Ciao
MS
It is okay MS, we are all feeling a little snippy the last few weeks. Anyone who takes the time to think and plan their future is a little nervous and frustrated right now.
Ben is kicking it down the road, he is 'uncertain' and if things get worse he will try to provide 'stimulus'.
Inflation city if things get worse, otherwise do nothing but wait.
Why is LEH going up?
How about that Dow, eh?
SKF is my shoulda coulda woulda lesson
bernanke: "economy needs credit to keep growing."
wrong asshole, it needs savings and investment. too much credit is how we got here.
Did anybody just catch that Bernanke comment. When asked if the financial and banking system was stable and well capitalized, he confirmed that he thought they were capitalized, but dodged the question regarding stability. Instead of answering, he immediately began talking about how his concerns had shifted from solvency to the ability for banks to keep extending credit.
Sounds to me like he doesn't think the system is stable.
Can we readers form a little vigilante group and start abusing those who ignore your gentle suggestion?
this is our play room. she set it up for us. she is a gracious party host. from the living room, to the patio, to the outhouse.
Can someone go to a novelty store and buy a magic wand and mail it to President Houdini?
-GSD
Corus down a third. $2.22
Could be curtains for CORS this Friday. Another multi-billion hit for FDIC.
Gavshire Hathaway writes:
Sounds to me like he doesn't think the system is stable.
He's sly, passing the buck to paulson.
Question from a long-time lurker...
Earlier this year some underfunded pension funds mentioned that they were going to improve their returns by investing more aggressively, namely in the stock market. With the market being uncooperative, it seems like this would be fairly big news, but I have not heard anything about it.
Any thoughts, or is this all in my head?
BB:
"He's sly, passing the buck to paulson."
Naturally. Paulson is a much more practiced and convincing liar.
Yep, I fired up CR, saw the title of the post and knew this was the comedians' lair.
Okay, now I gotta back up and catch up from last night. see you in about half an hour.
So, have we pretty much seen the low of the Dow for the week? Is it all up-hill for now, correcting the over-sold conditions until the next crisis hits (taking us even lower)?
Or, are we approaching some sort of wash-out moment of recognition where the common investor finally realizes they need to get their cash out of the markets?
A crash on Friday?
Gavshire Hathaway writes:
Naturally. Paulson is a much more practiced and convincing liar.
Funny that only those that believe him seem to be in these meetings, betcha no one here believes a word they say.
But lo behold, the markets are recovering... for now.
O/T
I love this statement:
"No bank depositor has ever lost a penny of insured deposits"
FDIC Chairman Sheila C. Bair, July 2008
sounds like mission impossible:
YouTube - Mission: Impossible Opening Montage 1
Tanta just told the dog to find a corner and lie down.
I would just like to review what the moron management of Corus did to get them to get them to this sorry state.
They paid the highest 1-year CD rates on the Internet for more than two straight years, week after week, to attract billions of deposits.
They threw that money at hi-rise condo construction loan projects, many of them bunched together in South Florida. They gave hi-rise developers $100 million+ loans when no other bank would.
When they saw the handwriting for condos late last year, they proudly diversified into construction loans for offices and retail. Again, jumping on board near the top for the full ride down.
CLOWNS!
And the FDIC let them get away with it every step of the way.
580 online BEFORE lunchtime!!
"He's sly, passing the buck to paulson"
BB
I think this is more about posturing and moving adgendas forward...Paulsons seems to want "consolidation" in various areas.
This is quite ugly.
INO Equities Stocks Indexes - U.S $ INDEX (NYBOT:DX) Price Chart and Quote
Cheers,
AAAAAAAA!!!!!!!! That's all.
Here's me prediction, market recovers a bit and sells off heavily into the close.
all joking aside, i appreciate a thread a day where slightly OT topics are not considered....well...off topic.
by the way
4 major asian indices (sp indexes?) last night (our time) were down more than 3 percent and one of those down more than 4...taiwan!
i think the market rallies after bernanke shuts the f*** up; he doesn't do anyone any favors when he speaks.
Misean - Take a look at the 1 yr its more telling of the strong dollar policy
Ceci n'est pas une bail-out.
Maybe a bit off topic, but the ted spread is relatively low (compared to the last few months). If the ted spread is in fact an indicator of credit risk, why is it (relatively) low in light of perceived problems with financials?
Misean writes:
This is quite ugly. (dollar index)
hey Misean, but this isn't!
24 Hour Gold Chart - Last 3 Days
my glod!
When Bernanke speaks, the truth LIES
It is all about diversification. I mean as long as you take diversified short position and get out after your returns hit your planned mark (let's say 25-50%), it's all good.
I mean real asset diversification is always the best bet, unless it's obvious that hell got lose and the risk is just too high to keep money in anything but the safest assets: inflation adjusted treasuries, cash and...well diversified short position (the latest is speculation not investment, one has to remember that).
It's a good thing there is no recession...........
Misean,
Scaled like that its not cliffdiving, just sliding in the playground...
The worst of the writedowns are over, and the worst of the credit crunch is behind us.
Oh, wait, sorry that was two or three weeks ago. Never mind.
There are only 2 types of footballs, one rolls and one wobbles.
I hereby apologize for my past thread-derailing. I was a newbie daytrader with an ultrabear thesis at a time very conducive to that.
I cashed out now and realize firsthand how addictive daytrading is.
BTW- Crude is down 2, would prevent some cliff diving on the markets.
Cobradriver wrote:
"So lets ask a basic question: Name 1 Fortune 50 CEO that could survive the competitive business landscape of China or India!"
With or without BRIBES?
How do you say "bailout" in Chinese?
mock turtle writes:
Tanta just told the dog to find a corner and lie down.
I thought of it more like she set up a kid's table...
President Rene Magritte writes:
Ceci n'est pas une bail-out.
merde alors, ce nais pas vrais..bailout- certainment
Lee Iaccoca says it's not a bail-out.
Go to Bloomberg and watch Roubini's video now.
Could someone ... you know ... if you have a minute ?
Where's that bear market rally? lol
Gold selling off.. and dollar improving.
Looks like a pretty strong rally off the lows.
oil is down $6
I think it's time to invest in companies who manufacture anti-depressants and adult diapers.
The United States is like a character in an MTV reality show. Runs up the credit cards on bling bling, blasts her stereo all night and pisses off the neighbors, and when it hits the fan, expects everyone to chill the f*ck out while saving her arse.
Damn thread's going by so fast, can't keep up.
Barley (and YSLP),
"Misean - Take a look at the 1 yr its more telling of the strong dollar policy"
Yes I know. I was just looking at the value at present.
Yes Glod is looking good.
Cheers,
Bernanke speaking really gives me the hope and confidence I need.
After all just listen to his strong steady and confident voice when he answers the tough questions.
I hear him speak and I can taste the fear.......
I think there should be an open thread to track Tanta's mood, or at least the D/TM ratio (dow/tanta's mood).
I think it's time to invest in companies who manufacture anti-depressants and adult diapers.
Doofus | 07.15.08 - 11:12 am | #
Kimberly-clark looks like a great buy today. (KMB)
Brent Crude is down 8 bucks!!!
Oil is down $8.5
Where's the PPT? It'd be cool if they put Paulson in the upper right and Schumer in the lower left.
Did you guys see Mish's latest post that shows the banks with $6,500 billion in deposits and only $250 billion in liquid assets in which to pay those deposits? I guess you could throw in the FDIC's $50 billion or so also. So the U.S. has approximately $300 billion in which to pay out on bank runs and $6,500 billion deposits they could have to pay against. Lawdy, lawdy.
Hey, is the FDIC going to stash all those loans on Indymac's books or are they going to try and sell them? Would banks have to use the new marks generated by an Indymac sale or would those be "distress" sales that shouldn't count?
Oil below $140! Dow spiking up! PPT looks to be in action!
Nas is positive
This just in:
Operation Hope has been expanded and is being renamed Operation Nigga Rich.
Details to follow.
Phew.. another potential meltdown saved!
Gee... I wonder who is selling oil to buy financials?
I'm looking in your general direction GS....
MONSTER PUMP
wy is oil down $9?
where r u guys seeing OIL down big?
bloomy, ino, yhoo, nymex.com all show only down 1
Interesting Times writes:
I'm looking in your general direction GS....
They seem to be the most unaffected by this mess. Hmmmm. I still hold on to my prediction that a selloff will occur near the close.
You guys are silly.
Massive, massive, massive short covering this AM. Massive.
Believe me - seeing it first hand.
Commodities selling off on profit taking.
That was the trade en mass a little while ago.
Now back to your regularly scheduled program.
The PPT myth debunked again.
Silly, silly, silly....
BB - If my theory is right, GS has been playing this market like a fiddle... just like the Enron boys.
"wy is oil down $9?"
CNBC reported that banks are liquidating positions to raise capital. That is not exactly a good reason for oil to be dropping.
Wow, I'm not much of a believer in daily PPT action. But boy this reversal of the days trends...ACROSS the friggin' board, is, well, rather odd.
Cheers,
SILLY!??!?
YouTube - Jim Cramer: "Bear Stearns is Fine!" Tues, 3/11/08
airlines just caught a bid about 25 min ago on the oil trade
Intraday volatility on the Dow, the S&P 500, the number of times my mother tells me it's time to settle down and get married--all useless. Unless you're doing some genius quant arb strategy, in which case, I hope you weren't that guy who sold those vol swaps in FNM. (Of course, most of these things are valued close-to-close).
Great entertainment value, though. Honestly, when the Depression comes and we're all standing together in the bread line, I don't think we'll be that unhappy. It's the differences in wealth that make us crazy, right? Like when neighbor Joe bought Yahoo in '97 and in 2000 owned three boats and four cars--that's when people get unhappy. Or, at least, I do.
LOL @ this open thread. I love it!!
Interesting Times writes:
BB - If my theory is right, GS has been playing this market like a fiddle... just like the Enron boys.
All the more reason that people follow their calls. But this selloff won't last. Nothing fundamentally has changed, in fact Ben just said worse was yet to come.
WTF is this:
NEW YORK (Associated Press) - In a July 13 story about the growing problems in the financial sector, The Associated Press erroneously reported that analysts have cited banks including Washington Mutual Inc., National City Corp., and Fifth Third Bancorp. as being at risk for failure. Analysts actually described these banks as being in trouble because of their exposure to failed mortgages
Please....... How would GS be in any better position than anyone else? That's just outrageous. It's not like they have a mole on the Hill.
I'm glad Tanta set this up today. I feel a lot of off topic comments can be of huge value, especially on days like this.
my comment of no value: I find it interesting that BenB and GWB are on a split screen but that we only can hear BenB. GWB is visualized but not heard!
bloomberg showing "S&P500 Paper Loss"
what the hell is that all about? are they becoming cnbc
CNBC :Crude Oil Prices Fall Below $136 a Barrel on Bernanke, Bush Comments
The most bogus misleading comment all day that i see on MSM.
Ben is getting shit now!!!!
Of course these banks are selling comm. to in order to have the cash to prop up share price when they start reporting this week.
Look at PPI...up over 9% YOY....it's all a myth we're in a recession.....
Ciao
Yearning To Learn writes:
my comment of no value: I find it interesting that BenB and GWB are on a split screen but that we only can hear BenB. GWB is visualized but not heard!
One is for you to listen and be scared, the other is for you to see and be really scared. There is no upside here.
Yen is down to 104ish;
is oil getting whacked on afund blowup?
Wow, go Jim Bunning.
Give him shit!!!!
Bunning pounding Bernanke about socialism. Go boy!
GWB is visualized but not heard!
A perfect metaphor for how the rest of the world views that criminally inept ponce.
Canadian watching with popcorn writes:
Give him shit!!!!
Superb comments by the senator!!!
"Now the FED wants to be a systemic risk regulator but the FED is a systemic risk!"
FNM not rallying down 25%!!!
If there is a fund out there blowing up, we'll hear soon enough. Once the dog-and-pony show in DC closes up shop for the afternoon, that is.
Debt protection costs on Citigroup (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research) surged on Tuesday as investors continued to worry about further fallout from the mortgage and credit crisis on the financial sector.
The cost to protect Citigroup debt with credit default swaps for five years rose by 25 basis points to 180 basis points, or $180,000 to protect $10 million of debt, according to Phoenix Partners Group.
Any thoughts, or is this all in my head?
Red Plaid
I think you are referring to the PBGC's announcement that they were going to increase their equity allocations over time.
This change was suppose to be very gradual. But the PBGC already has enough equity exposure that this downturn will hurt them. They also are hurt by low interest rates, which increase the present value of their liabilities and reduce their funded ratio (assets divided by liabilities).
PBGC is screwed. I give them 2-3 years before they go broke. Like FDIC, they will have to raise premiums, of course. But they are raising premiums among a shrinking base of private DB plans, many of which are already strapped.
Many pensioners are doomed and don't know it.
PBGC does not cover all the public pensions that will bust.
How come HBC doesn't collapse? What makes them so special?
Dude, Bunning just went NUTZ on Ben!
So, with crude down 5.5% today, that means gas prices will likewise be 5.5% reduced tomorrow, right?
I mean, Mr. OilMan is always telling me how directly connected gas prices are to the oil market...he wouldn't be lying, would he?
durnk writes:
How come HBC doesn't collapse? What makes them so special?
Good question!
Someday this war's gonna end.....
watch 1219 spu's
, only close's matter!
scoop financials, bail ultrshorts
On the other hand.. Gold looks cheap now.
Maybe there should be a PPT thread as well?
tradingstats,
Bailout of SRS?
Anyone have a feel for sil pop today..
thinking of buy in...
SIL: Basic Chart for APEX SILVER MINES SC - Yahoo! Finance
Bunning hammers Bernanke:
By: Senator Jim Bunning
Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I know we have a lot of ground to cover today, but I want to say a few things on the topic of this hearing and of the next.
First, on monetary policy, I am deeply concerned about what the Fed has done in the last year and in the last decade. Chairman Greenspans easy money the late nineties and then following the tech bust inflated the housing bubble and created the mess we are in today. Chairman Bernankes easy money in the last year has undermined the dollar and sent oil to new record highs every few days, and almost doubling since the rate cuts started. Inflation is here and it is hurting average Americans.
Second, the Fed is asking for more power. But the Fed has proven they can not be trusted with the power they have. They get it wrong, do not use it, or stretch it further than it was ever supposed to go. As I said a moment ago, their monetary policy is a leading cause of the mess we are in. As regulators, it took them until yesterday to use power we gave them in 1994 to regulate all mortgage lenders. And they stretched their authority to buy 29 billion dollars of Bear Stearns assets so J.P. Morgan could buy Bear at a steep discount.
Now the Fed wants to be the systemic risk regulator. But the Fed is the systemic risk. Giving the Fed more power is like giving the neighborhood kid who broke your window playing baseball in the street a bigger bat and thinking that will fix the problem. I am not going to go along with that and will use all my powers as a Senator to stop any new powers going to the Fed. Instead, we should give them less to do so they can do it right, either by taking away their monetary policy responsibility or by requiring them to focus only on inflation.
Third and finally, since I expect we will try to get right to questions in the next hearing, let me say a few words about the G.S.E. bailout plan. When I picked up my newspaper yesterday, I thought I woke up in France. But no, it turns out socialism is alive and well in America. The Treasury Secretary is asking for a blank check to buy as much Fannie and Freddie debt or equity as he wants. The Feds purchase of Bear Stearns assets was amateur socialism compared to this.
And for this unprecedented intervention in the markets what assurances do we get that it will not happen again? None. We are in the process of passing a stronger regulator for the G.S.E.s, and that is important, but it allows them to continue in the current form. If they really do fail, should we let them go back to what they were doing before?
I will close with this question Mr. Chairman. Given what the Fed and Treasury did with Bear Stearns, and given what we are talking about here today, I have to wonder what the next government intervention in private enterprise will be. More importantly, where does it stop?
C&C - FNM YoY return is -88%. Not bad, huh?
Doofus writes:
So, with crude down 5.5% today, that means gas prices will likewise be 5.5% reduced tomorrow, right?
You know what "Futures" are. Something to do with the future, I am told.
I don't even bother watching the doofus' on TV (especially today) as it is just a dog and pony show to make it appear that they are "concerned" about the 'merican people.
think the TSA and you have an idea of what today is all about.
The perception of understanding and caring
Ciao
MS
ReturnFreeRisk:
Thanks for the statement.
Bernake's response: "Never!"
yes... thanks for posting that....saved me having to watch it live.
May be they should have shown the same concern on the way up.....
Nahh...they were too busy being bought by the same system
Ciao
MS
Open Thread! Sweet!
Who else is getting REALLY fired up for BURNING MAN?!?!?!?!?!
I'm assuming Tanta will be at the burn. Anyone else?
RFR, thx!
scorching hot !
csc, ahh burning man is going to be special this year....Lots of effigys..
PPT in early today, I dont think it will hold the day though.
Bunning was MAD, too. They tried to make a joke about it afterwards, and he did NOT smile. He was pinning some blame and fault directly on Bernanke.
Wall Street Extravaganza '08! I vote for another round of multi-million dollar bonuses for all the banksters!
SRS action today is fast and furious..
No one in Washington takes blame. For anything.
Is it surprising that the crowd laughed and Bernanke smirked Bunning's accusation away.
Ah the selloff continues...
DOW 10725.
Just got to luv these guys that keep speaking of confidence. There is nothing to see here....the banks are not over leveraged....all is fine just go charge some more and guy a SUV.
Mr. Beach writes:
Is it surprising that the crowd laughed and Bernanke smirked Bunning's accusation away.
Sad but true.
Here's my personal example of why banks are getting killed on foreclosures.
My mother in law has a number of investment properties - single family dwellings - here is Scottsdale, AZ. When she obtained mortgage loans on those properties, she put 30% down and obtained 70% ltv loans. Pretty damn secure, huh?
R.E. market crashes, those properties have lost most if not all of their values. And we are talking nice, high quality Scottsdale homes in the $500,000 +/- range.
Are lenders willing to work with her to help with payments? NO. They are barreling straight into foreclosure. No payment assistance whatsoever - they won't even discuss any alternative plans. They WANT to go to foreclosure - where they will take a 50% hit on each foreclosed property.
So which is smarter - take a $25,000 hit on a payment plan to rescue a property - or foreclose and take a $200,000+ hit??? The answer is easy for the lenders - take the $200,000 hit. Screw the investors.
And have more empty, foreclosed houses on the market. Driving down everybody else's property values.
Sure, I've left out a lot of the particulars here. But I wanted to demonstrate just how smart these banks are with their foreclosures - a $200,000 hit on an investor property is better than a $25,000 workout plan. And that's why banks are in trouble and needing taxpayer bailouts.
aack.
I tried to buy some USO but the drop stopped just short of my limit order.
darn. oh well, I'll wait until the next drop.
and yeah, Bunning was extremely upset.
I wish we could get a list of the fiscally conservative senators and representatives...
When will owning a house go from being the American dream to being something that is absolutely despised? In coming years, I can see the children of renters beating up the children of homeowners on the playground for being uncool.
Man, if I read someone talk about the PPT again I'm going to puke.
Short covering people!!! That's what's going on!!!
Wake up!!!
Typically smart comments on this board until I see PPT.
Since when do people get more than $100,000 (immediately) from the FDIC out of a failed bank, when neither the bank nor its assets have been sold?
I heard plenty of stories from the early 80s of people receiving exactly $100K and not a penny more when their S&L failed.
Also, are there laws on the books anywhere that put depositors senior to other creditors in the liquidation?
a $200,000 hit on an investor property is better than a $25,000 workout plan. And that's why banks are in trouble and needing taxpayer bailouts.
the problem is that a lot of these workouts are turning into foreclosures later... and the foreclosure recapture is less in the future.
all the models are broken. thus for them it is:
1. take a sure $200k loss
2. or take a $25k loss and the POSSIBILITY For further losses.
the banks are taking the sure thing.
HBC is well capitalized. Except a relatively 'small' mistake of buying US household(subprime), it's still a profitable bank with strong earnings from Asia. Two UK banks can be trusted at the moment: HBC and Standard chartered Bank(businesses in middle east, africa and Asia).
anonymous
don't believe in the PPT
read about the market crash of 1987 , and the NY fed president, Corrigan, and Fed Chair Greenspan, and then come back and tell me you don't believe in a market santa clause
Arson, Rape, Killings: A Most Unusual Mortgage Fraud Case - July 15, 2008 - The New York Sun
Arson, Rape, Killings: A Most Unusual Mortgage Fraud Case
By ROSS GOLDBERG, Special to the Sun | July 15, 2008
The founder of a Haitian death squad who has resided as a free man in New York for most of the last decade is a defendant in a mortgage fraud case that opened yesterday.
PPT has been weakened, but not destroyed--the government is getting into officially buying equities--pure fascism is so refreshing.
Mock -
I know all about the 87 crash and what happened - that was a 25% single day drop and of course there was government intervention in the same way there was after 9/11.
But to hear people on this board explain every rally with the PPT is absurd.
The government is moving the market up - its the shorts covering.
If we have a day like the 87 crash or an event like 9/11 you can rest assured that the government will step in to stablize markets - as they should in those situations.
by the way for those who are feckless towards gold.
remember 920 just 7 days ago
the PPI numbers released this morning 1.8% for one month
a 20$ drop in response to oil and short covering is no surprise
noise
gold will go down significantly in the not too distant future, but before that i bet it goes up...until the US economy slips past stagflation into depression.
What do people prefer more, "B-52" or "Helicopter" as the nickname for Bernanke?
We need something entirely new for him. He has outlived his previous nicknames. I can't think of a really good one, but Bernankipoo comes to mind since it is rather contemptuous. Or maybe even, to be nastier, Bernankipoop? I am sure someone else can do better.
Customers furious in Day 2 of fed takeover IndyMac
From the Associated Press
8:35 AM PDT, July 15, 2008
Police have been called in to tame an angry throng of IndyMac Bank customers trying to pull money out of the Encino branch on Day 2 of a federal bank takeover.
At least three police squad cars showed up early today as tensions got heated outside the San Fernando Valley branch of Pasadena-based IndyMac.
...
People stood in line outside the bank for hours on Monday to withdraw money from their accounts. When it was clear they wouldn't get in before closing, FDIC employees apparently took down names and told them to return today.
Other customers began lining up at 1:30 a.m. today and by dawn tensions escalated because people on the list were getting priority.
By 8 a.m., about 50 people on the list waited in one line and many more waitied in another line. Five people were allowed in at a time.
Customers became infuriated, and police told them to behave or face arrest.
Police stood by at some other branches around Southern California but there were no reports of problems.
anonymous
sounds like we agree more than disagree.
i see the PPT not as a market maker, but a shock absorber
i guess they are "letting" this market fall...as market forces dictate...but at a controlled rate.
Yep it's the Mexicans fault............
Also, are there laws on the books anywhere that put depositors senior to other creditors in the liquidation?
I'd like to know that as well. I'm thinking the FDIC was generous in this case because this is the first major bank that was seized. Now that people have some notice, my guess is future payouts won't be so generouse.
With only $45 billion or so left in the FDIC and $5,000 billion in insured deposits left, the FDIC might want to tigten up a bit on future payouts.
Can we please get a thread dedicated to the making of spicy pork sausages?
The apocalypse has arrived. I find myself cheering on Jim Bunning.
(I actually disagree with a lot of what he says, but I think what we really need right now is someone to lie down on the tracks and make us talk about where this train is headed.)
I vote for ac's coinage of "Bernankypanky"
curious, you seem to be betting that the housing market comes back which would make the PV $200K hit the worse economic outcome...have you ocnsidered that you are talking your book. Maybe the bank is being realistic.
"gold will go down significantly in the not too distant future, but before that i bet it goes up...until the US economy slips past stagflation into depression."
Gold's great advantage is its credibility in times of uncertainty. When things get certain again -- for better or for worse -- wealth knows where to go again, and leaves gold.
That said, I'm sure as heck not selling mine before Bush is out of the White House, at the earliest. That man has a black swan breeding pond in the Rose Garden -- metaphorically.
Does anyone have an info/expert opinion on some European insurance companies: AXA, AEG, Swiss Re, AZ? Most have top Best ratings (at least as of 6 months ago). To what degree are they exposed to toxic waste? They seem very very cheap.
. And that's why banks are in trouble and needing taxpayer bailouts.
better the banks getting taxpayer bailout $$$ than your wannabe-landlady queen MIL.
she gambled, she lost. Buying up SFH to rent out is one of the greater evils of unrestrained capitalism IMNSHO.
Bob Dobbs writes:
That man has a black swan breeding pond in the Rose Garden -- metaphorically.
LOL.Things can't get more uncertain than that.
or Poutine?
YouTube - Poutine, anyone??
Anonymous writes:
I vote for ac's coinage of "Bernankypanky"
Anonymous | 07.15.08 - 11:56 am | #
last night at 2 am is tried to add a little spice to AC's invention
i called it hankybernankepanky
(cant leave paulson out, right?
if AC will allow
Citi is green. wow.
Is anybody looking at the effect of coming bank failures on the retail lease market?
A popular trend the last 8 years or so was for small stores and restaurants around NYC to go out of business b/c they couldn't keep up with the rent. The second ave deli being one of the most popular examples along with CBGB. People often wondered who would come in and pay those rents if a popular and successful existing business couldn't make it. The answer was always a new branch for a bank.
If wamu falls, that is going to be a lot of retail space going back on the market. I also suspect there are going to be a lot of banks reducing the number of branches they have open to save money. It would seem there are going to be a lot of prime retail spaces right on the corner of major intersections with no tenants in the not too distant future.
it's a daytrader dream day or nightmare depending on timing...
Interesting Times writes:
Citi is green. wow.
It'll go red again before the day is up.
lol, my cable station's coverage was just interrupted by the Emergency Alert System sounding off. But, not to worry, "This is only a test."
How bout Bernankrupt for the new nickname?
SKF- high of 211>189
whoa....
mock turtle writes:
LOL I saw that comment!
but, I thought the task was to replace "helicopter"
"Troy writes:
. And that's why banks are in trouble and needing taxpayer bailouts.
better the banks getting taxpayer bailout $$$ than your wannabe-landlady queen MIL.
she gambled, she lost. Buying up SFH to rent out is one of the greater evils of unrestrained capitalism IMNSHO.
Troy | 07.15.08 - 12:01 pm | # "
With 30% equity in each property, why is that considered "gambling"? And why is it "better the banks getting taxpayer bailout $$$ than your wannabe-landlady queen MIL."? (That "queen" comment was totally uncalled for) I'm trying to understand why a $200,000 loss is preferable to a $25,000 loss.
All your USA are belong to us.
We're going through some painful times. A lot of people will lose their homes and nobody wants to see that. But we also need to face the music on what's happening with the debt bubble.
Ignoring this reality will only prolong what will be a nasty and brutish recession.
John F. Wasik | Homepage | 07.15.08 - 12:02 pm | #
If no one saw this on the last thread, Mr. Wasik showed up.
540 visitors on line...
PPT
where's the barf bag.
i remember many years ago, during a period of high inflation, probably late 70s, several local appliance stores providing double pricing...regular currency, or payment in silver coins.
if our country... IF... were to slip into a financial melt down i think it most likely that, day to day, people will spend or barter to a significant part, with silver coins.
hi-yo silver away..... @ 19.22 now
Nah. I'm just going to stick with "Helicopter Ben."
Has a ring to it.
What is more important, is how exactly to TYPE the sound the helicopters make as they drop cash to the multitudes below.
Should it be:
WHOMP! WHOMP! WHOMP! or
WHAP! WHAP! WHAP! or more like
THWHUMP! THWHUMP! THWHUMP!
I'm imagining the sound they make as they come in low and fast, and then back off and hover right overhead. You know that sound? Like in the beginning of MASH. How best to type that sound? Puzzler.
anonymous bosh
yeah
or
how bout
all your banks are belong to us!
re: HBC
They were up to their necks in exploiting the securitization money generator, so eventually they'll get hit just because that revenue stream goes away, even if they have managed to play pass the toxic loan product fast enough to not get left without a chair.
Jim Bunning is my hero!
Gold is following oil down, just like it did going up. Commodity bubble won't last.
LOL I saw that comment!
but, I thought the task was to replace "helicopter"
Anonymous | 07.15.08 - 12:08 pm | #
ok ok, instead of helicopeter or b 52
i go for "B1 Ben" (the stealth bomber)
(but i still like hankybernankepanky)
what about the whirling??
YouTube -
CNBC: BEN worried more about stability than inflation.
Dollar watch out!
Speed writes:
Gold is following oil down, just like it did going up. Commodity bubble won't last.
Gold doesn't track oil as much as the dollar.
Bucky's breathtaking rally (cough,cough) petered out before reaching its open.
gold also disconnected from oil around $100/barrel.
anon-forgot to congratulate ya on a great call on skf months ago...
Bob Dobbs:
That man has a black swan breeding pond in the Rose Garden -- metaphorically.
Thanks Bob. You kill me.
Let's see what Cox and Paulson does to the markets. This should be interesting.
speed
gold and oil are related but not tied at the hip.
its complex
gold has increased in value relative to nearly all major currencies.
but i could envision a scenario where gold rises in dollars and falls relative to BRIC currencies, or a petro currency that replaces dollars.
Oil and gold will be extremely bullish after this liquidation is finished. Someone needed the cash quick.
Written Bernankypankyhanky, it sounds like a euphemism for a cum towel. I think this is more appropriate.
After they f*ck us, this is how they clean us up.
Currently Smoking Cannabis:
Well at least the dollar is back to two-ply again, if we're lucky may make it three.
Monster day on the XLF - possibly a short term low (LOL no way would I hold financials over night).
Regardless of s.t. low or not, XLF will have possibly 450 million shares traded - unbelievable volume. That's volume that's saying the XLF could go down to $12 on its next round.
i cant touch that...
Ackman FNM re-cap plan...
i like it... he talks his book, but it can work.
mouse,
financials were way ugly... but thru this week into opex, i think there ok.
think calendar spreads
Seriously...if things get really good, we'll be able to blow our noses in reserve notes.
Dow only down 28! Thank God for the PPT!
Everyone chime in please: SKF hit a record high $211.75, well above my May target of $200. It's pulling back very fast and is currently at $187.56.
So where does SKF end today? I'm thinking $175-180.
i called it hankybernankepanky
Best so far. Definitely.
Oh, Okay. See, I'm at work and not following this (because I'm working). But I just saw that OIL took a huge dump so that explains everything.
Since this is the right thread, I sold SDS 2 $75.
I iz jenius?
how about this
imf gold sales are only half complete for this contract year
last report 250 tonnes left to go
all g8 nations are involved...as the imf itself does not hold the gold but directs the g8 to liquidate and then proceeds were suppose to flow to debt forgiveness and food medical programs for 3rd world.
now imagine if the fed loans brokers funds thru the PDCF and wink wink nod nod lets the primary dealers "know" when a gold dump is gonna blow
then the dealers take the right side of some contract or option...
and the money appears to back-stop the market and cause the shorts to cover, for a time....
and slow down, but not stop the fall in the indexes.
sell off after lunch?
Skf-198
SRS @ $116 yesterday, too.
My BAC was down 4-figures but is back to 3-figures down (I moved some of my SRS gains into BAC LEAPS)
Look all three members of the "Hope Now Alliance". "Ben Hank and Cox!"
Todays episode The Hope Now Alliance takes on Mr. Market Force and the Sinister Speculator!
Ben! Create money through your fingers. Use a Bond Blast and create a hailstorm of paper napkin IOU's
Hank! Use your Ruby quartz Rose colored glasses to spot and call "the Bottom"
Cox! Look the other way
One comment before I leave. With the VIX spiking above 30, a $TICK well north of 1400 two days in a row, and an overextended decline leads me to think that sometime this week (pehaps today, likely Thursday/Friday) we'll have an Intermediate Bottom in place. So keep that in mind for those who've been short (not day traders) throughout this decline.
Anonymouse,
The thing that strikes me is that a $10/bbl dump on the oil futures has got things more or less back to par for the day... we will see the close but it seems like that would have driven a 3% rally not too long ago...
Which is absurd as the price of oil is sooo inflationary at these levels that a $10 move has no real impact in and of itself. Of course, if it presages a major selloff...
I'm guessing this is a short covering rally, which will be followed by another drop.
BTW, Tanta is a dude.
Feel that too, troy.
no nibbling today... i was full force chomping... got lots under 19
dm writes:
SKF is my shoulda coulda woulda lesson
DM - you and everyone else. I am hanging on to my SRS and figure it may be a year before we see 140, who knows but I am being patient.
I made a little on SKF - but damn... I think me and everyone here was trying to trade SKF... and really, we should have been 'buy and hold'.. trying to time the market is indeed damn hard.
as for oil
dont forget the prez and congress finaly negotiated an agreement last month to stop filling the strategic oil reserve.
the actual end date to purchases and deliveries was, i seem to recall um
YESTERDAY!!!
people on this blog have been ringning their hands wondering how the speculators could rig prices without storage
there's your storage
and now it isn't
so with the brakes jammed on the world economy and the spor deliveries stopped
i guess (predict would be too pompous) oil to pause if not outright fall.
Jim Rodgers says-Short the rally....
Reminds me of last tuesday..look at SRS down candle last tues...
I vote Spanky
"bernankrupt"
Ciao
MS
DM - you and everyone else. I am hanging on to my SRS and figure it may be a year before we see 140, who knows but I am being patient.
Jim Rodgers says-Short the rally....
Reminds me of last tuesday..look at SRS down candle last tues...
I really like SRS. It is the only financial (sort of) short that hasn't performed. CRE and troubled retailers will take the REITS down and so will the trouble with Fannie/Freddie.
These politicians want to believe that this market is just dry-heaving. It's not. It's still puking up bad loans and will be for quite some time.
I'm trying to understand why a $200,000 loss is preferable to a $25,000 loss.
I've already told you:
they're taking the known $200k loss now, as opposed to a $25k loss with possibility of more later.
2 out of 5 loan workouts ended up in foreclosure anyway. since housing prices continue to fall, waiting on a foreclosure is giving money away.
so in your mind, the Phoneix/Scottsdale market will recover at some point. Thus your mother in law will be "right side up" again.
however, it's also possible that RE continues to fall another 20-30% in the Valley of the Sun. if so, your MIL may need to go hat in hand again for another "workout" or foreclose at that time.
that's why.
cox talking about false rumors. that sounds funny. what about when the false rumor helps raise the stock price. do we care about that at all?
tim, SRS is a crazy ride today..Tomm. might be similar to last week..
end of day today will be interesting to say the least. That 1200 bounce on spx was solid...Didn't like that 11 number...
I really like SRS. It is the only financial (sort of) short that hasn't performed.
I like it too but if it's going to zig-zag like this I'll be buying the dips and selling the peaks, TYVM.
can't trade SKF?????
Troy, Cd I agree I wouldn't hold more than a few hundred shares because of the volatility but it looks good where it is...Wish it would make a move.
Speaking of market timing...is DUG another SKF waiting in the wings?
UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to twice (200%) the inverse (opposite) of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas IndexSM.
Woops,
Cox going after nattering nabobs of negativism...
New regulation. PC for blogs. "One must say something positive before using, on the other hand" New uptick rule for commentary on the markets.
"Chris Cox has admitted he's quit beating his wife. His mistress, on the other hand."
dm Dug is a favorite of the bulls. It goes along with their premise that oil will fall and the market will make a Phoenix like rise to 18000
Broker is always telling me to short Oil through Dug and buy financials and houses...
DM, problem with oil is could swing 5 dollars tomorrow on geo-poli news..
But volume is trending up..Great play right before Georgie leaves....
Tim-Made a cple buy and sells on srs today..114-118 range..crazy movement today..
Interesting movement in SIL today..Soros owns this stock, beaten up because of bolivia politics and hedges..It could report a blow out qtr...
anyone going long on anything??
I'm long on shorts
Long gold.
Tim-This is solid long at 19-20 range..VLCM
Beach cities holding up well..Industry friends say thier sales is still strong.....
VDSI-in buy range also...
long Orville Redenbacker
Tim:
I have actually used DUG as well.
you can flip flop DUG then USO quite well.
oil seems to have a hard time getting past 145 and staying there or getting below 135 and staying there. So a person with cajones can buy DUG when oil is at 145... with the plan on selling when oil falls to about 135 or so, then getting into USO
oil is volatile... unlikely to go straight up or straight down...
of course, you could lose a lot of money on this. Or you can make 5-8% on each swing. (with DUG 10+%)
but there are a lot of guys like me who will jump into oil at 135... but start to hesitate at 145. (I missed out buying USO today... I had a limit order at 109.5 and it only got down to 110 and change).
Yippie
the dow is back positive
i knew the past was behind us!
happy days are here again!!
praise the prez
our maximum and supreme leader does it again.
his magnificent speech this morning has inspired the glorious homeland.
sig smile
or err
sick heil...whatever...meh
I just love my new little shitbox to sit in; thanks for the cage and all the fine frigg'n company!
Did anyone check the price of hog futures yet?
thanks for the suggestions Don't want to be too aggressively short here.
Maybe GM sold off its vast reserves of oil and gold to 'raise liquidity'.
Naw, maybe not.
More market interventions!
CNBC: SEC Chairman Cox Says New Limits Will Be Put on Short Sales of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Stock
Tim writes:
anyone going long on anything??
yeah
cash or near equivalent
looking for a bottom and then half in
after confirmation, all i
Thanks guys. I've been watching DIG and DUG...no, not the video game. Frankly, with the volatility of oil they scare the crap out of me.
dm:
I like USO better than DIG.
volatility can be your friend IF you use stops.
the danger with those is not volatility, it is the possibility that they will just plummet (or skyrocket).
Hmmm.. Paulson says he wants an unspecified amount.
Wow.. what will that do to the dollar me wonders?!
SEC Chairman Cox Says New Limits Will Be Put on Short Sales of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Stock
Ah, the free-market system prevails!
Speed writes:
Ah, the free-market system prevails!
There never has been a free market, in free markets, things are allowed to fail.
I'm bored, what's for lunch?
college dorm residents face "mystery meat" in the cafeteria, investors face "mystery assets" in their shares.
Possible result: food riot in the cafeteria, investor riot in the stock market, when the recipients of these items realize how rotten they are.
It looks like a panicking herd of Enrons is stampeding down the road, whipped along by the new accounting requirements to pull all those squishy, smelly off-balance-sheet deals back into their reporting, and mark them to market. No wonder financial shares are exceptionally twitchy these days.
Citigroup's $1.1 Trillion of Mysterious Assets Shadows Earnings - Bloomberg.com
Citigroup's $1.1 Trillion of Mysterious Assets Shadows Earnings
On the Hook
Seven of the biggest U.S. banks, including Citigroup, are on the hook for at least $300 billion of credit and liquidity guarantees for off-balance-sheet loans and bonds, according to a June 30 report from consulting firm RiskMetrics Group Inc. in Rockville, Maryland. Such guarantees were remote when pledged as an inducement to bond buyers. Now, the first year-over-year decline in housing prices since the Great Depression and rising home-loan, commercial-mortgage and credit-card delinquencies have begun to trigger them.
You will rapidly realize what a farce these off-balance- sheet things are,'' said Ladenburg Thalmann & Co. analyst Richard X. Bove.You could pick up a lot of loan losses with the stuff you're putting back on.''
It's impossible to predict what the losses might be from off-the-books assets or liabilities because disclosures are thin relative to what is required for balance-sheet assets, said Neri Bukspan, chief accountant for Standard & Poor's in New York.
``A lot of information tends to disappear or becomes second or third class,'' Bukspan said.
"cash or near equivalent
looking for a bottom and then half in
after confirmation, all in"
mock:
how will you know when bottom is in?
do you anticipate a bottom or dead cat bounce?
is anyone else here as violently angry as I am to see all the coddling of the investment banks today? two hours after that senator from the finance committee mentioned how powerful the FRE/FNM lobbyists are, we have an emergency order stopping short selling in the GSE's and the primary dealers. this makes me want to throw up.
and yes i'm also angry because I watched 5grand of profits this morning vanish to the downside from my SKF alone
back to SKF - I am not saying you can't trade SKF, but the thing has gone up 100% in about 3 months, how many people traded SKF for the last 3 months and made more than 100% (unleveraged)?
So with SRS won't you be better off to buy and hold for like 6-12 months?
BB writes:
Hmmm.. Paulson says he wants an unspecified amount.
He also said, "Just write the "1" on the check. I'll fill in the zeros when I get back to the office."
Homeland Security Head, Cadaver Chertoff, immediately issued a directive replacing the "1" with an "X" to keep the terrorists from winning.
Tim: you asked.
I am officially long USO now (in at $110.50.)
My plan is to sell it at around $117 or so. (maybe a little lower maybe a little higher, it depends on how things go).
===
awake: you didn't really "lose" $5k of profits. There was simply a short term spike in SKF price that of which you failed to take advantage.
FWIW: I too have SKF, and I too failed to take advantage of the brief spike to $211.
I recommend figuring out when you'd be happy to sell, and then put in an order for that. then if it spikes that high in the future, you lock in your gains.
This market is a big casino, lots of gambling going on. I dont like it, and now theres alot of fed intervention in it. Let fannie and freddie fail, lets get a big washout day. Instead we get a slow painful death.ENOUGH!
Another sucker's rally IMO (thanks for short reloads-prices were getting a bit low there)
BUT: SKF: shows buying on weakness, and SPY+XLF selling on strength (if you can call it that)
BTW XLF made an all times low today (since its 1999 beginning)
M-F writes
"how many people traded SKF for the last 3 months and made more than 100% (unleveraged)? "
.. I bet quite a few, it was a no brainer
Show of hands, how many think we're very close to an intermediate bottom?
Genevieve - did you?
No more short selling?
Are we at communist state?
SEC to Limit Short Sales of Fannie, Freddie, Brokers
SEC Extends Naked Short-Sale Order on Fannie, Freddie (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
I agree:
it would have been hard to trade SKF and make >100%.
I got in at 108 and change
in the last 3 months it's been sort of up up up... so hard to get in and out and make more than just staying in.
I too would be interested to see if anybody made more than 100% trading SKF as opposed to just buying and holding.
my original plan was to hold until 210, (but i didn't have an order in to sell). but I never dreamed it would get here this fast.
part of me tells me to just sell and take my gains... but part of me feels that my reasons for getting into SKF haven't changed all that much.
gotta mull it over.
When fannie and freddie situation is resolved then I will likely sell SKF. but again, not sure. I hate being wishy washy on this stuff... not the way to invest at all. shows lack of discipline.
This, by the way, is very different from DIG/DUG or GLD... where they have been volatile but staying in trading ranges so it is easier even for a newbie like me to just get in and out.
I can haz my market rally and fed bailout now?
i'm just bitter because if you look at fundamentals skf should go to 300. have you guys even considered whats going to happen to that ETF's price when bank stocks that are taken over by the FDIC go to zero?
The Aristocrats have decided that they cannot allow their possessions to decline in value, so they have enlisted the SEC's Mr. Cox to make special rules protecting their wealth. It's not a rule prohibiting short selling of all stocks, but I'll bet they'd like that, too.
Apparently, last year's demise of the short-selling "uptick rule" on stocks isn't going well for the Aristocrats.
TH-Th-Th-Th-Tha-That's all Folks!
Hank P.
Yearning thanks for the info. I was long SKF at 91 went all in and sold at 17#. didn't want to overplay the hand. Holding a few hundred SRS shares until (hopefully) 140 or so but could go higher. Don't listen to me though I got out of SKF a little early.
I'm now a long term shorter!
Seems like Uncle Ben's pep talk today was successful. DOW only down around 15.
The dow has been given a stay if only for another day.
As I stated <a href="http://www.haloscan.com/comments/calculatedrisk/5286513134048661430/?dt=1216162841#519449>here, I'm thinking an Intermediate Bottom could from this Thursday/Friday because of the significant Gann Cycle Turn occuring on the 18th.
But I wouldn't be long yet. For example, I still think the SPX should test 1175 before any I.B. forms.
When you're wrong and losing, you change the rules.
Short the USA to zero. BS eCONomy there.
Long the Defense industry?
Tim asks what, if anything, anyone is long on...
Let's see...
-Canned/non-perishable food
-Ammo
-Farming/gardening tools
-No debt
-Silver and gold coins
Did I miss anything?
That's volume that's saying the XLF could go down to $12 on its next round.
From your lips to God's ears.
My 75 Jan10 20 Puts would really enjoy that.
OCdan: water filtration.
I like the Berkey unit.
OCdan--for a list, read Niven's sci fi novel Lucifer's Hammer. Meteor hits end of the world story. Needles, bleach, jerky, fertilizer, seeds, cloth, thread, plastic bags, etc. Booze of all kinds for trade.
Not that I think it'll get that bad, but it'll get bad.
Tim:
your strategy is better. I don't have an exit strategy for my SKF. THat is naughty indeed. I'm working frantically on it right now.
I also have SRS. I'm way up on it, and am holding it for 1 year for the tax status, unless it really cliff dives. not many shares though.
it's better to go in and out early than to try to maximize.
i never worry if I get out early. never.
but then again, I only trade with my play money. it was only about 4-5% of my liquid assets... but because of what the market has done it shot up to 10-15% of assets. So I took a bunch of stuff off the table of late.
now playing with about 5-8% of my assets... so even a 10% loss in a day is 0.5% of my assets...
better than what I'm losing on inflation.
Damn the Fed for dropping interest rates so low.
M-F :
I do not come on BBs to boast about my earnings (point ?) (however I will say that I beat GS, that just pleases me a lot, even though it is likely not too hard)
But I have traded (short side) the SKF since the start of May as my indicators rolled over. I have traded only that, with a mixture of day trades and longer ones as I always do. Luckily I have had not a single loosing trade (obviously and again luckily).
Clearly we are entering more volatility.
I'm still long WTF ultrashorts. Should I sell when I get resistance or excitation in my stochastic bollinger?
Well folks, I was taking a look at the max pain for a lot of big stocks and I see a lot of $100 million blood baths. I think we can easily see a real big rally through friday if they can driveby oil.
Today was a good start, but let us see $10 down tomorrow and the hedge fund boys will walk it down fast ahead of the margined out folks.
Went long 10 dia 109s, 5 gs 165s.
Closed a bunch of financial puts.
Nothing like a short killing bounce when the shorts get complacent.
This market is a total casino.
Don't be stealing my tagline.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Can somebody explain whether this policy on short selling applies to normal investors such as myself, trading through a broker like Ameritrade? Or is this only for the big boys on wall street?
AllenM writes:
"This market is a total casino."
I do not think it is quite a casino, if you keep a VERY tight discipline. actually I have been surprised how "orderly" this selling phase has been.
Does this suggest the market was dominated by tech. traders?
Genevieve,
the market is dominated by black box traders.
A lot of the liquidity is robots trading black box strategies and market makers using black boxes to try and beat back the computers.
This brutal balancing act is why I just try and play 3-4 day trends, or long term macro trends. Too many fake jumps of volatility designed to move shares around based on fleecing retail and large traders.
Maybe after over 20 years of trading I have reached a very cynical state.
All I know is that I am a greedy fool, just like the rest of them.
But knowing gives you a bit of an edge.
If you trade be prepared to take big losses, as long as your gains are larger.
Also, if you have just had a big loss, stop.
Don't trade for a while. Sit on your long term positions and contemplate what went wrong.
That is how you survive.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Dollar has strengthened two ply and all.
Many thanks to paulson. Let's see if it can stay this way.
AllenM.... I have learned all that
You say:
"if you have just had a big loss, stop."
I say: you DO NOT take a very big loss (discipline? hello...). Rule #1: keep losses small. And IMO if over 30% of you trades have losses, even small ones, you are not ready to trade. (actually I like to keep that number under 10% that I understand appears "unmanageable by some - but I disagree)
Whatever your trading technique is, which is a personal (own psy) choice
The reason it's not a casino is that each trade is not a one tim event...like a roll of the dice , or a hand of BJ.
you have the opportunity to double down , tripple down, hold, or fold. When you fold, you don't lose(generally) 100% of your investment.
I trade options, so markets move fast enough that you will have large losses on any given position.
Guaranteed. Position size and risk maintenance are key in my world too.
I also sell some options.
Trust me, keeping losses small is a fine way to learn to play, but the reality is in a very volatile market sometimes doubling down is the right move. Which is psychologically hard to do for some folks.
You are absolutely correct that you have to understand your temperament and match your trading style to it.
I usually don't trade very much, but when the big volatility strikes, you have to take it for all it is worth. So I will pay when it comes time to do my Sched D in more ways than just writing the check.
As the old joke goes, there are old traders and bold traders, but there are few old bold traders.
BTW, in my retirement account I do much less trading, but the gains have averaged much less (although still respectable at over 12% p.a.).
My mutual fund retirement account only cooks along at 8 percent (with some limited macro switching and trading funds only on an annual basis, if that).
So, as part of a very diversified portfolio, some short term trading is definitely allowed. But it is hard to watch your trading account bounce around 10% in one day in value.
Someday this war's gonna end...
All your Magic Wands are belong to us!