So much for decoupling. I feel like a broken record here anymore. First I had to defend my call that Spain and Ireland would get killed. No housing bubble in Spain!!! What are you crazy? Look at those immigration demographics. (wutever)
Then the UK. Shitestorm just reaching shore. Kiss that economy buh-bye. Bollocks!
Then the EU in general, which is now teetering. Italy? Basket case. France? Oy vey. Maybe the Dutch will save the day.
Canada? You are, in trouble, not you are? Aye?
Australia. Oy, mate, we gots trouble, eh?
New Zealand? Paging Peter Jackson...
And the list keeps growing.
Sure, maybe China wont contract, but even slowing to 5% when the rest of the globe is contracting is a catastrophe.
Looks like most of the global growth is from commodity rich countries. That's going to work out real well when the consumers of said economies dont need so much anymore.
On the plus side, you can invest in the ultimate demand destroyer fund...dig-DUG.
Another reason Chinas GDP will slow is the reduction of gas subsidies by the government. Chinese drivers will be forced to pay more at the pump and this will decrease the consumption of other goods. The benefit will be seen in their pollution levels as people drive less.
Can we really trust any numbers coming out of china? Seriously. We tear apart anything from the US gov, but never seem to question the Chinese.... I call shenanigans.
Canada? I don't have any numbers but I doubt that a country with the population of California but about a third of the natural resources of the continent, including a trillion or two bbl equivalent of bitumen, will find itself in trouble this century.
Wealth is stuff and the knowledge of employing it towards human needs and wants.
Yeah, yeah...but if China's growth slows below what it needs to keep the employment engine running the implicit social contract is broken. And they're already having an admitted 90k major protests/year (means 200K ?). If growth slows to far this could be real trouble.
Walking around Colorado Blvd the other day I found a list of the same financial companies floating in the wind. Oddly enough, it was titled, "FOUO, sensitive: Banks we need to prop up to contain market expectations".
On the flip side buying those stocks is now going to be cash only, right?
No effing way is that order constitutional unless the government has hard evidence that naked short selling disparately affects those companies...
Unfortunately, the only classes that could challenge would be (1) someone convicted of naked short selling or (2) a financial institution that should be on that list goes BK.
Since I cant short Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. I guess they can't short my bank...oh hold on, is they, My Lord, a double standard based on Government sanctioned status...
We spell Aye eh....
Yep Canada is just starting:
House prices dropped, first time in 9 years.
Houses not selling, lot of for sale signs.
40 year mortgages with low down payment canned.
Ontario in recession.
Government says we will be ok.
TSE falling with oil.
Banks exposed to US cre.
High inflation, gasoline,natgas, food,(on news tonight natgas heating up 40%)
BB - the point is that some are now "guilded" and the rest are to fend for themselves...Like guarenteeing debt, this says to all that there are players who are above it all.
You can still short them just not nakedly so... so anyone shorting them now needs to not get naked. It doesn't get rid of shorting however... as a percentage of shorts how many are naked? I thought reading here someone else was saying it was on the level of 5-10%...
I'd suspect the Chinese authorities welcome a slowing in growth from its current levels. They have a problem with an overheated problem. We're the ones with the economy at stall speed. On another front, I found very interesting a report that participation in the Barclays rights offering by one of the Chinese overseas investment vehicles was nixed at the political level.
It's worth remembering that while East Asia was writhing in their debt crisis of ten years ago, we were launching the dot com boom, and barely noticed. Being coupled doesn't mean we're all in sync, and it doesn't mean that the marches to the beat of the American consumer. To be honest, nobody's quite sure what it means. Be enlightening to find out.
Chinese economic growth is similar or worse than Soviet growth. Pollution, corruption, mismanagement, and misallocation are the norms. Something like eighty-five percent of Chinese rivers and streams are polluted (undrinkable and toxic). Desertification is claming thousands of hectares. And we all know about the air quality i the major cities.
The Chinese accepted worthless UD dollars in order to poison their own children while Americans got fat on debt and Twinkies.
Can anyone comment on this? I stole it from the comments at Mish's.
I would like you all to consider a market manipulation scenario which is becoming increasingly credible when you consider the moves in equities and commodities over the past 2-3 days. Let us suppose that Paulson went to his buddies at Goldman Sachs and worked out a deal: "We will give you the regulatory framework you need to make a killing; in turn, you bail out the financials."
So here's how it works. "Naked short selling" will not be allowed starting monday - why not today? Because they need several days to get the mother of all pump-n-dumps in place.
To raise money, GS first dumps all its commodities longs. It dives into the targetted financials and begins accumulating massive numbers of shares.
Come monday, you can short the stocks if you like - but you have to borrow the share first. And where are you going to borrow the share if Goldman Sachs' hedge funds have a lions share of the float? With no possibility of short selling, and a huge number of shares tied up so that buyers are competing for a much smaller share pool, the financials' shares skyrocket, getting back the last years' losses in a couple of weeks. Then GS dumps its shares, for profits in the hundreds of billions, Fannie raises its capital, and the crisis has been averted without spending a single taxpayer dime - but at the cost of swindling millions of investors who don't have the inside knowledge of how this scam is being worked or what the timing is.
Canada? I don't have any numbers but I doubt that a country with the population of California but about a third of the natural resources of the continent, including a trillion or two bbl equivalent of bitumen, will find itself in trouble this century.
Wealth is stuff and the knowledge of employing it towards human needs and wants.
Canada has a lot of stuff to sell.
Troy | 07.16.08 - 11:49 pm | #
Sure but getting that stuff out of the ground means a lotta them would have to move from places like Toronto & Vancouver to Flynn Flon & Grande Prairie.
Realize something like 80% of Canadians reside w/in 100 miles of the US border... the resources not so much.
Capitalizing on resource industry means somebody actually has to go dig, cut & grow the stuff. The urban Canadians I've known aren't much more excited about that than folks from NYC or Chicago are about working a grain elevator in North Dakota or an iron mine in N Minnesota.
This will be fun to watch...
BTW - industry along the 401/403 are getting hammered worse than Detroit. Currency & a declining auto industry - double whammy.
Anyone else watching the Niall Ferguson WWII series on PBS? I've only seen bits and pieces, but he makes some interesting points re the rise of Asia and the retreat of the western powers as the defining characteristic of the war.
In my view, the thing to watch for in the next 20 years is a warming inSino-Japanese relations. The Japanese are in a demographic squeeze and increasingly rely on China for manufacture and trade. There is still a lot of friction due to WWII, but this will fade over time.
Imagine the impact on the world economy (not to mention geopolitics) of a strong Japanese-Chinese alliance. Could happen.
VANCOUVER (NEWS1130) - A new Statistics Canada study shows Vancouver has the dubious distinction of being Canada's leader in what criminologists call "incivility"...things like crime, litter, vandalism, graffiti and loud neighbours.
Sure but getting that stuff out of the ground means a lotta them would have to move from places like Toronto & Vancouver to Flynn Flon & Grande Prairie.
Typo alert: I misspelled 'Flin Flon' (correct spelling). Wouldn't want the thousand or so folks who live up there angry at us.
I actually have been there - went fishing well north of FF but stayed in town while passing through. It is a mining town build on almost solid rock. Homes literally on outcroppings... with deep mines underneath the city. Base metals mostly I believe - like nickel & zinc. We were up there in early June and the ice had just come off the lakes.
Thanks FED for the list. I am finally in position to have some fun. I suspect that the market will be supported in the short term but in the long term (ie think October), everything falls apart. Fun until then.
The market may be more than "supported" in the short term. Now that the traders have traction, there could be room to run as high as S&P 1350. I am as close to net long as I have been in a while. Beware.
FWIW, in the spirit of the "commenter confessional" from earlier today, I lost money last year. So remember, do what you will is the whole of the law.
"I've seen it rough before, but I don't ever think I've ever seen it this bad," said Mark Riley, who has worked as an auctioneer for three decades. "To most people, horses are a hobby or a plaything or a toy. When the economy gets tough, the plaything is the first thing to go.
OT but amazing and amusing and I'm surprised that CR hasn't picked this up seeing as its from his neck of the woods:
John Bovenzi, the FDIC official now running IndyMac, tells the Los Angeles Times today he is "deeply troubled by reports that there are financial institutions that are refusing to honor or are placing excessive holds on IndyMac Federal checks."
On latimes.com tonight: "Sheryl MacPhee, 46, said she liquidated a certificate of deposit at IndyMac's San Marino branch Tuesday morning after a two-hour wait. She then took the cashier's check to a Washington Mutual branch in South Pasadena to deposit.
"MacPhee said a WaMu manager told her that under a new corporate policy, the bank was not accepting IndyMac checks. If a customer insisted on depositing the check, it could be eight weeks or more before the full amount would be accessible, she said she was told."
"Canada has a lot of stuff to sell.
Troy | 07.16.08 - 11:49 pm | #
WTFCs - its all part of the US anyway"
Barley | 07.17.08 - 12:23 am | #
Barley's the kind of Yankee we like to send back home with a couple'a black eyes and an attitude adjustment after the fat prick starts yapping it up in the bar with his offensive we're "fill in the blank" than you are drivel.
And before you all start to try and educate me on who's a Yankee and who's not, you're all Yankees to us.
Remember back in last Oct or there about, there were a few hedgie that got into a massive jam on the yen carry and sent the market through the roof selling energy and covering banks/builders. I think today was more of the same. Unless you can explain to me why builders rallied on that housing data and sentiment.
All the kids are pooped and there jammies are soiled and CR told a crappy story and I ate to many chocolate covered peanuts and now I'm gonna barf and have nachtmares
To continue on that refusing to honor FDIC/IndyMac stories, when banks stop accepting each others checks, the jig is up.. I recall something like this is some prior banking crisis. People had to go over to using scrips ( e.g. an haircut scrip that you swapped for a side(1/2 slice?) of bacon scrip and so on, each issued on the full faith and backing of the barber and the butcher respectively.
I gotta admit, I went and checked that my stash of liquid US$ in the hours was still there and as ample as I thought it was.
"VANCOUVER (NEWS1130) - A new Statistics Canada study shows Vancouver has the dubious distinction of being Canada's leader in what criminologists call "incivility"...things like crime, litter, vandalism, graffiti and loud neighbours.
Barley | 07.17.08 - 12:30 am | #"
Basically, it's the only major Canadian city not covered in snow from much of the winter. It's hard to get in trouble when you're snowed in. Try using spray paint in Winnipeg in the dead of winter with a -50 F wind blowing off the prairies.
Currently Smoking: works for me. I hold the same opinion of GS as Mish, its seems - evil genius.
Dryfly: Flin Flon. Wow, that takes me back. I did a report on that town when I was in Elementary School. I still remember that it was named after Flintabbatey Flonatin, a fictional character.
Currently Smoking: You'll be interested to know that Flin Flon produces 400 kg of medicinal marijuana per year in a copper/zinc mine. So even after exhausting their existing resources, they know how to keep business going. Beer, pot, gypsum... what a country!
You people and your damn naked shorts. I'm going to have awful dreams tonight, visions of some of Our Elected Leaders (the ones under 5'10")lacking clothing. This was Not Nice.
This pretty much ensures they will not cut fuel subs... Outside of the extreme short term I believe oil will remain flat, $125 to $150 range for the next 12 months.
that would be . . . unfortunate . . .but since it's largely thanks to Wamu-style suicide lending that I've been forced to rent lo these past 4 years I think I'll do a little happy dance should that actually come to pass.
half of my trading account just settled . . . what to buy, what to buy . . .
I don't see a Chinese -Japanese alliance anymore than I see a British - German one. A lot of economic trade maybe. But both countries want to be the top dog and Japan is not going to give up that role without a fight.
Going into the middle of next century Asia will be a major hotspot of military tension. The US has bases all over the place in Asia, including South Korea and Japan. As well as long time ties in the Philippines.
In terms of China, I expect the country to implode politically at some point. Too many contradictions there that rely on a 10% GDP rate. Most Chinese are not the whiz kids we see in US universities, but rather, peasants who have been forced to move long distances for work in factories, or living under the yoke of the local strongman-party official.
Barley writes:
BB - the point is that some are now "guilded" and the rest are to fend for themselves...Like guarenteeing debt, this says to all that there are players who are above it all.
All those 19 are now GSEs (Government Sposored Enterprises). They have the implicit backing of the government and can operate on preferential terms.
are you kidding me writes:
This pretty much ensures they will not cut fuel subs
They already did, last month, allowing retail prices up about 15-18% IIRC.
Whether they continue to cut is in doubt with reports like this. Just be careful w/ Chinese stats. They haven't nearly the bureaucracy or institutional infrastructure to approach what we've got, and we know ours are cooked/wrong anyway. Bad Chinese numbers are usually a function of Beijing and local satraps at cross purposes and this goes back to imperial times.
Interesting, since late June there have been noises about slowing RMB appreciation, re-instating VAT rebates for key exports, and other export friendly measures. Wen Jiabao and other state council types toured export intensive regions in early July, listening to exporter beefs. Haven't seen anything like that for the past couple years. But buyers have diversified, factories are bailing, and exports are under extreme margin and volume pressure.
No Japan/China rivalry comments can be as glib as what's already been posted, but there is a lot of embedded synergy and business going on right now, despite the frictions.
But agree that at this point the US seems more likely to encounter turmoil first, and the ROW reacts.
What was it in early Bushdom? Something about "while you're trying to figure it out, we create history and the rest of you can sit back and observe?"
The financial situation is basically this IMO; big banks(maybe even Citi) are through the rough patch, regionals now have begun the walk across the coals and their shoes are soaked in kerosene.
A rising tide lifts all boats, use this mini rally as your spot to watch regionals GT0
Isn't it about time for China to begin to develop its internal market? The US economy, if memory serves, grew from the growth of our internal market, not from exports.
If world demand for China's production were a constant and not softening, as seems likely now, isn't there still a point at which it will have risen to meet or even exceed the demands of its export market?
People still seem to see China as a disunited conglomeration as it was before Mao. Mao unified China and gave it a real sense of self. He deserves credit for that. Mao did away with the "old China", it is a different country now.
fwiw, refusing an FDIC check sounds like a teller screwup, not wamu abandoning government deposits at a time when it desperately needs deposits.
Probably a dumb question, but does this impact SKF? Or is it set up in such a way to avoid these restrictions.
in the annual (i know -- who reads these? ) you'll find (page 244) that the entire assets of SKF consist of two agency repo agreements (BAC, UBS counterparties) securing a massive equity swap.
in other words, SKF and like proshares are a construction of derivatives, not shorted shares.
Isn't it about time for China to begin to develop its internal market?
There are a slew of producers for everything from ball bearings to blue jeans that are trying to court that domestic market.
Two major problems they face are a disjointed, though improving, distribution network, and getting paid in a reliable, timely fashion.
Many factories prefer to export since the goods simply are containerized and they immediately get paid by L/C.
Oh, one other problem. The typical local consumer is freaked if he cannot save more than last year, and less freaked about not having the latest gee gaw today.
I seem to recall a major earthquake in China. 80,000 dead. That GDP growth fell a whole 0.5% after that is not remarkable. That it didn't fall
a lot more is.
Could it possibly be the issuing bank that is causing problems?
I just thought back to earlier this summer when I had to write a decent sized check(low 5 figures) and it was my bank(Chase) that was taking their time letting it clear, even though I had 3x that amount in the account.
Could be just another way to prevent(or slow) a bank run.
Interesting point about the exception to naked short selling for option market makers. When these guys take the opposite site of a put buy, they short the stock for hedging. If they can't do that, it will really effect the option markets. If both shorting and buying puts dry up, this could case a very steep and unstable rally.
Might some of those folks in line have more than 100K in their accounts? It's hard to believe that there are some people who both have more than 100 K in one bank and have put it a bank with unusually high interest rates. But evidently it's true.
Concerning IndyMac checks. If I recall correctly, checks drawn on IndyMac after the FDIC took over are obviously good. Banks will want to be sure that the checks they cash from IndyMac are drawn on the bank after the FDIC seized control.
If I were concerned, I'd call the FDIC 800 number.
10% growth until the Economic Stimulus (for China) Act of 2008 is spent- oops, it's already spent. Imports at Long Beach are flat. The blank HELOC checks are no more. Equity is negative for anyone who bought or refinanced a house between 2004 and 2006. How low will home prices go? 2002 levels? 2000 levels? Obama and McCain court La Raza (the RACE!) and the NAACP while the middle class of our Nation rots to hell. Michael Savage is right- the USA is dropping to a 2nd world Nation while the UAE is now 1st world. Just keep patronizing the Wal-Marts and see where it gets your country. Sorry, I don't fall for Wal-Mart's patriotic propaganda with the US flag flying above all of their stores and the WWII veteran greeters. The business model of that company is single-handedly destroying the USA.
Cool. First.
So much for decoupling. I feel like a broken record here anymore. First I had to defend my call that Spain and Ireland would get killed. No housing bubble in Spain!!! What are you crazy? Look at those immigration demographics. (wutever)
Then the UK. Shitestorm just reaching shore. Kiss that economy buh-bye. Bollocks!
Then the EU in general, which is now teetering. Italy? Basket case. France? Oy vey. Maybe the Dutch will save the day.
Canada? You are, in trouble, not you are? Aye?
Australia. Oy, mate, we gots trouble, eh?
New Zealand? Paging Peter Jackson...
And the list keeps growing.
Sure, maybe China wont contract, but even slowing to 5% when the rest of the globe is contracting is a catastrophe.
Looks like most of the global growth is from commodity rich countries. That's going to work out real well when the consumers of said economies dont need so much anymore.
On the plus side, you can invest in the ultimate demand destroyer fund...dig-DUG.
Chinese worldwide political economics would be no suprise at all, if only you would give thought to Adam Smith's more noble work.
So now we're about to find out whether the oil run-up is due to speculation or global demand, or a bit of both.
Ya 10.1% - a virtual depression.
So how's this play tomorrow?
As of now, Asian markets up.
Oil will drop on China news...markets up again? Spike up on the financials?
Curious.
Another reason Chinas GDP will slow is the reduction of gas subsidies by the government. Chinese drivers will be forced to pay more at the pump and this will decrease the consumption of other goods. The benefit will be seen in their pollution levels as people drive less.
Can we really trust any numbers coming out of china? Seriously. We tear apart anything from the US gov, but never seem to question the Chinese.... I call shenanigans.
Canada? You are, in trouble, not you are? Aye?
Canada? I don't have any numbers but I doubt that a country with the population of California but about a third of the natural resources of the continent, including a trillion or two bbl equivalent of bitumen, will find itself in trouble this century.
Wealth is stuff and the knowledge of employing it towards human needs and wants.
Canada has a lot of stuff to sell.
Dude the Olympics are up! Moneymaker...
Oil will drop on China news...
Maybe you misunderstood. It was "GREW 10%," i.e., oil need has increased 10%.
Yeah, yeah...but if China's growth slows below what it needs to keep the employment engine running the implicit social contract is broken. And they're already having an admitted 90k major protests/year (means 200K ?). If growth slows to far this could be real trouble.
SEC Restricts Shorting 19 Financial Stocks
Mish's Global etc.
Securities covered by SEC short sale order
FACTBOX: Securities covered by SEC short sale order
| Reuters
Walking around Colorado Blvd the other day I found a list of the same financial companies floating in the wind. Oddly enough, it was titled, "FOUO, sensitive: Banks we need to prop up to contain market expectations".
On the flip side buying those stocks is now going to be cash only, right?
As long as the Chinese keep loaning us what we need to keep the TV on and the Hot Pockets steaming...
That's in no danger...right?
SW bank closing activity delayed until Friday, July 25 or later.
"arbitrary and capricious"
No effing way is that order constitutional unless the government has hard evidence that naked short selling disparately affects those companies...
Unfortunately, the only classes that could challenge would be (1) someone convicted of naked short selling or (2) a financial institution that should be on that list goes BK.
Nice catch FFDIC.
Probably a dumb question, but does this impact SKF? Or is it set up in such a way to avoid these restrictions.
FFDIC writes:
SEC Restricts Shorting 19 Financial Stocks
Sounds to me like a way to protect "family".
Since I cant short Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. I guess they can't short my bank...oh hold on, is they, My Lord, a double standard based on Government sanctioned status...
Okay then, I will sit back and eat cake.
The bubble has burst................ Run!
SW bank closing activity delayed until Friday, July 25 or later.
Wouldn't want to undermine the confidence of the banking system...
We spell Aye eh....
Yep Canada is just starting:
House prices dropped, first time in 9 years.
Houses not selling, lot of for sale signs.
40 year mortgages with low down payment canned.
Ontario in recession.
Government says we will be ok.
TSE falling with oil.
Banks exposed to US cre.
High inflation, gasoline,natgas, food,(on news tonight natgas heating up 40%)
Looks like Paulson agrees with me. About this being "it" and all.
Head between knees, everyone.
Barley writes:
SEC Restricts Shorting 19 Financial Stocks
Contrary to popular belief this does not shore up confidence.
The SEC is protecting us.*
*By "us" I mean them.
BB - the point is that some are now "guilded" and the rest are to fend for themselves...Like guarenteeing debt, this says to all that there are players who are above it all.
It will back fire, imho
You can still short them just not nakedly so... so anyone shorting them now needs to not get naked. It doesn't get rid of shorting however... as a percentage of shorts how many are naked? I thought reading here someone else was saying it was on the level of 5-10%...
I'd suspect the Chinese authorities welcome a slowing in growth from its current levels. They have a problem with an overheated problem. We're the ones with the economy at stall speed. On another front, I found very interesting a report that participation in the Barclays rights offering by one of the Chinese overseas investment vehicles was nixed at the political level.
It's worth remembering that while East Asia was writhing in their debt crisis of ten years ago, we were launching the dot com boom, and barely noticed. Being coupled doesn't mean we're all in sync, and it doesn't mean that the marches to the beat of the American consumer. To be honest, nobody's quite sure what it means. Be enlightening to find out.
Barley writes:
It will back fire, imho
Agreed. Dollar suffers even more, think it will be bad after this week.
This is a family blog, YLSP.
Chinese economic growth is similar or worse than Soviet growth. Pollution, corruption, mismanagement, and misallocation are the norms. Something like eighty-five percent of Chinese rivers and streams are polluted (undrinkable and toxic). Desertification is claming thousands of hectares. And we all know about the air quality i the major cities.
The Chinese accepted worthless UD dollars in order to poison their own children while Americans got fat on debt and Twinkies.
It's a wonderful world.
Burn, baby, burn.
linear algebra writes:
Be enlightening to find out.
My take, markets are coupled, real economy is seeing signs of behaving otherwise.
You can still short them just not nakedly so...
Completely understand, it just sets some above others. I personally do not like "guilded" players in an open and democratic market
If you are switching to cheap Vodka,run it through a Brita filter a few times before drinking it.Still not good,but it kills you more slowly...
According to Reuters,
here are the 19 stocks where no naked short selling is allowed from July 21 through July 29 (though they may extend it to 30 days):
Can anyone comment on this? I stole it from the comments at Mish's.
I would like you all to consider a market manipulation scenario which is becoming increasingly credible when you consider the moves in equities and commodities over the past 2-3 days. Let us suppose that Paulson went to his buddies at Goldman Sachs and worked out a deal: "We will give you the regulatory framework you need to make a killing; in turn, you bail out the financials."
So here's how it works. "Naked short selling" will not be allowed starting monday - why not today? Because they need several days to get the mother of all pump-n-dumps in place.
To raise money, GS first dumps all its commodities longs. It dives into the targetted financials and begins accumulating massive numbers of shares.
Come monday, you can short the stocks if you like - but you have to borrow the share first. And where are you going to borrow the share if Goldman Sachs' hedge funds have a lions share of the float? With no possibility of short selling, and a huge number of shares tied up so that buyers are competing for a much smaller share pool, the financials' shares skyrocket, getting back the last years' losses in a couple of weeks. Then GS dumps its shares, for profits in the hundreds of billions, Fannie raises its capital, and the crisis has been averted without spending a single taxpayer dime - but at the cost of swindling millions of investors who don't have the inside knowledge of how this scam is being worked or what the timing is.
Canada? I don't have any numbers but I doubt that a country with the population of California but about a third of the natural resources of the continent, including a trillion or two bbl equivalent of bitumen, will find itself in trouble this century.
Wealth is stuff and the knowledge of employing it towards human needs and wants.
Canada has a lot of stuff to sell.
Troy | 07.16.08 - 11:49 pm | #
Sure but getting that stuff out of the ground means a lotta them would have to move from places like Toronto & Vancouver to Flynn Flon & Grande Prairie.
Realize something like 80% of Canadians reside w/in 100 miles of the US border... the resources not so much.
Capitalizing on resource industry means somebody actually has to go dig, cut & grow the stuff. The urban Canadians I've known aren't much more excited about that than folks from NYC or Chicago are about working a grain elevator in North Dakota or an iron mine in N Minnesota.
This will be fun to watch...
BTW - industry along the 401/403 are getting hammered worse than Detroit. Currency & a declining auto industry - double whammy.
Canada has a lot of stuff to sell.
Troy | 07.16.08 - 11:49 pm | #
WTFCs - its all part of the US anyway
Anyone else watching the Niall Ferguson WWII series on PBS? I've only seen bits and pieces, but he makes some interesting points re the rise of Asia and the retreat of the western powers as the defining characteristic of the war.
In my view, the thing to watch for in the next 20 years is a warming inSino-Japanese relations. The Japanese are in a demographic squeeze and increasingly rely on China for manufacture and trade. There is still a lot of friction due to WWII, but this will fade over time.
Imagine the impact on the world economy (not to mention geopolitics) of a strong Japanese-Chinese alliance. Could happen.
If anyone was curious about which banks will fail next, the SEC has compiled a list of the top 19...
El Cliffo writes:
According to Reuters,
here are the 19 stocks where no naked short selling is allowed from July 21 through July 29 (though they may extend it to 30 days):
Naked shorts are already illegal, to imply that only 19 stocks will be protected just implies that :-
O/T
for Canadian readers
VANCOUVER (NEWS1130) - A new Statistics Canada study shows Vancouver has the dubious distinction of being Canada's leader in what criminologists call "incivility"...things like crime, litter, vandalism, graffiti and loud neighbours.
Speed writes:
If anyone was curious about which banks will fail next, the SEC has compiled a list of the top 19...
Someone should investigate them for rumor mongering.
Sure but getting that stuff out of the ground means a lotta them would have to move from places like Toronto & Vancouver to Flynn Flon & Grande Prairie.
Typo alert: I misspelled 'Flin Flon' (correct spelling). Wouldn't want the thousand or so folks who live up there angry at us.
I actually have been there - went fishing well north of FF but stayed in town while passing through. It is a mining town build on almost solid rock. Homes literally on outcroppings... with deep mines underneath the city. Base metals mostly I believe - like nickel & zinc. We were up there in early June and the ice had just come off the lakes.
Ice through to June.
China's still giving us deflation in wants: (on 7/13) Microsoft to Cut $50 on Xbox 360 Pro Price; followed by (7/16) E3: Sony cuts PS3 price by $100.
Your worthless dollars just bought more mind-numbing electronics.
Barley: I'd be incivilitous, too, if I had to live there.
BB:
"If anyone was curious about which banks will fail next, the SEC has compiled a list of the top 19..."
LOL!
WSJ
Street Gears Up for Short Changes
Street Gears Up for Short Changes - WSJ.com
" Under the new curbs, short sellers will need to make formal arrangements to borrow the shares before ."
I'm not too savvy with things like shorting but at first glance, my impression is that it makes sense. Can someone explain otherwise?
Does anybody else think that this is the "too big to fail" list???
Not that there is a lot of meat left on the bones of Wach, WaMu, and the like, but why are we allowed to naked short them?
"If anyone was curious about which banks will fail next, the SEC has compiled a list of the top 19..."
Peace keepers showed up and called a cease fire. The fighting will resume soon without an extention.
Poor WaMu. Not important enough to make the list. Wachovia out in the cold too. The runts who will be denied a teat.
The runts who will be denied a teat.
Now that's funny!
The Japanese are in a demographic squeeze and increasingly rely on China for manufacture and trade.
tranches, I agree entirely. Very symbiotic relationship going forward once the old guards pass and the grandchildren of the war are in power.
Nasty war that was tho. Almost made Barbarossa look like a Boy Scout jamboree.
If we can borrow their money can we also borrow some of China's growth? They don't want it anyway!
Realize something like 80% of Canadians reside w/in 100 miles of the US border... the resources not so much.
I agree of course but having a frontier free for the taking does provide significant economic boost.
hell, that's largely what the Clinton boom was, pioneering & monetizing a new frontier in telecommunications.
Thanks FED for the list. I am finally in position to have some fun. I suspect that the market will be supported in the short term but in the long term (ie think October), everything falls apart. Fun until then.
This is great for wal-mart, buy on the dip
Mooohawhahahahahahaa
I've just adjusted my Yuan, it was a little tight, sorry
Mooohawhahahahah..
We're barely over a hundred users. Must be The Bottom.
The market may be more than "supported" in the short term. Now that the traders have traction, there could be room to run as high as S&P 1350. I am as close to net long as I have been in a while. Beware.
FWIW, in the spirit of the "commenter confessional" from earlier today, I lost money last year. So remember, do what you will is the whole of the law.
Fascinating, C-S-C-.
Okay with me, just as long as they do not pump the S&P 500 above 1400 (my margin call point).
Whomever buys financials now deserves to be fleeced, IMO.
Ok, I'm sorry, how about this angle, horses and people that once thought they should retire and have horses and lots of toys:
Horse sales slow to a trot
The rising cost of equine ownership from high feed, fuel and hay prices is causing a bumpy ride for those who sell the animals
404 Error, No such article | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle
"I've seen it rough before, but I don't ever think I've ever seen it this bad," said Mark Riley, who has worked as an auctioneer for three decades. "To most people, horses are a hobby or a plaything or a toy. When the economy gets tough, the plaything is the first thing to go.
Is this on topic or what?
OT: Blowncue Scooter Index
The BSI is an index tracking the number of motorcycles and scooters in his apartment complex's parking lot.
The BSI has doubled to 4 in the past 60 days.
That is all.
OT but amazing and amusing and I'm surprised that CR hasn't picked this up seeing as its from his neck of the woods:
John Bovenzi, the FDIC official now running IndyMac, tells the Los Angeles Times today he is "deeply troubled by reports that there are financial institutions that are refusing to honor or are placing excessive holds on IndyMac Federal checks."
On latimes.com tonight: "Sheryl MacPhee, 46, said she liquidated a certificate of deposit at IndyMac's San Marino branch Tuesday morning after a two-hour wait. She then took the cashier's check to a Washington Mutual branch in South Pasadena to deposit.
"MacPhee said a WaMu manager told her that under a new corporate policy, the bank was not accepting IndyMac checks. If a customer insisted on depositing the check, it could be eight weeks or more before the full amount would be accessible, she said she was told."
WaMu wary of IndyMac cashier's checks | L.A. Land | Los Angeles Times
10 days holds I can understand for non-wired money but 8 weeks ? and refusing to accept it ?
This is the shit that happens in banana republics and 3rd World countries.
-K
Is she retarded? She takes cash from one failing bank to another...only near Hollywood....
O yeah and she is in a tony part of Pasadena, San Marino is EXPENSIVE !
-K
"She then took the cashier's check to a Washington Mutual branch"
From the frying pan into the fire.
"Canada has a lot of stuff to sell.
Troy | 07.16.08 - 11:49 pm | #
WTFCs - its all part of the US anyway"
Barley | 07.17.08 - 12:23 am | #
Barley's the kind of Yankee we like to send back home with a couple'a black eyes and an attitude adjustment after the fat prick starts yapping it up in the bar with his offensive we're "fill in the blank" than you are drivel.
And before you all start to try and educate me on who's a Yankee and who's not, you're all Yankees to us.
Remember back in last Oct or there about, there were a few hedgie that got into a massive jam on the yen carry and sent the market through the roof selling energy and covering banks/builders. I think today was more of the same. Unless you can explain to me why builders rallied on that housing data and sentiment.
64 Visitors Online
All the kids are pooped and there jammies are soiled and CR told a crappy story and I ate to many chocolate covered peanuts and now I'm gonna barf and have nachtmares
To continue on that refusing to honor FDIC/IndyMac stories, when banks stop accepting each others checks, the jig is up.. I recall something like this is some prior banking crisis. People had to go over to using scrips ( e.g. an haircut scrip that you swapped for a side(1/2 slice?) of bacon scrip and so on, each issued on the full faith and backing of the barber and the butcher respectively.
I gotta admit, I went and checked that my stash of liquid US$ in the hours was still there and as ample as I thought it was.
-K
"VANCOUVER (NEWS1130) - A new Statistics Canada study shows Vancouver has the dubious distinction of being Canada's leader in what criminologists call "incivility"...things like crime, litter, vandalism, graffiti and loud neighbours.
Barley | 07.17.08 - 12:30 am | #"
Basically, it's the only major Canadian city not covered in snow from much of the winter. It's hard to get in trouble when you're snowed in. Try using spray paint in Winnipeg in the dead of winter with a -50 F wind blowing off the prairies.
Currently Smoking: works for me. I hold the same opinion of GS as Mish, its seems - evil genius.
Dryfly: Flin Flon. Wow, that takes me back. I did a report on that town when I was in Elementary School. I still remember that it was named after Flintabbatey Flonatin, a fictional character.
Currently Smoking: You'll be interested to know that Flin Flon produces 400 kg of medicinal marijuana per year in a copper/zinc mine. So even after exhausting their existing resources, they know how to keep business going. Beer, pot, gypsum... what a country!
...while Californian growers put their grow operations in suburban tract homes. There must have been a creative migration north.
With commodities like those, Flin Flon will fare better in the coming Depression than Irvine will.
I heard that China has been building 20 cities per year. Will it only build 19 cities this year?
Per some posters at Brokers OUtpost -
Wamu will exit lending on Monday. Isn't this what Indy did before they shut down? All we need is a Chucky letter and Wamu is next.
You people and your damn naked shorts. I'm going to have awful dreams tonight, visions of some of Our Elected Leaders (the ones under 5'10")lacking clothing. This was Not Nice.
This pretty much ensures they will not cut fuel subs... Outside of the extreme short term I believe oil will remain flat, $125 to $150 range for the next 12 months.
Wamu will exit lending on Monday
that would be . . . unfortunate . . .but since it's largely thanks to Wamu-style suicide lending that I've been forced to rent lo these past 4 years I think I'll do a little happy dance should that actually come to pass.
half of my trading account just settled . . . what to buy, what to buy . . .
I don't see a Chinese -Japanese alliance anymore than I see a British - German one. A lot of economic trade maybe. But both countries want to be the top dog and Japan is not going to give up that role without a fight.
Going into the middle of next century Asia will be a major hotspot of military tension. The US has bases all over the place in Asia, including South Korea and Japan. As well as long time ties in the Philippines.
In terms of China, I expect the country to implode politically at some point. Too many contradictions there that rely on a 10% GDP rate. Most Chinese are not the whiz kids we see in US universities, but rather, peasants who have been forced to move long distances for work in factories, or living under the yoke of the local strongman-party official.
only 40 here... must be west coast only hour
Japan is not going to give up that role without a fight
The Japanese are going to be rather thin on the ground in 30-40 years.
'course, all bets are off if they can manufacturer those robot soldiers a la Terminator.
In terms of China, I expect the country to implode politically at some point.
I'd bet that the US implodes politically first.
bbay writes:
In terms of China, I expect the country to implode politically at some point.
Not very likely if we look at history.
Paulson Lobbies Congress to Get Fannie-Freddie Rescue Approved
Paulson Lobbies to Get Fannie-Freddie Rescue Approved (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Merrill to Sell Bloomberg Stake For $4.5 Billion
Merrill Reaches Deal to Sell Bloomberg Stake - CNBC
WARNING: STOCK TALK
things that mae you go hmmmm
END WARNING
Read this Bob Pisani column from Monday if you want a laugh.
I screencapped it so that the live quotes would highlight the insanity. Can a so-called analyst be more wrong???
Barley writes:
BB - the point is that some are now "guilded" and the rest are to fend for themselves...Like guarenteeing debt, this says to all that there are players who are above it all.
All those 19 are now GSEs (Government Sposored Enterprises). They have the implicit backing of the government and can operate on preferential terms.
are you kidding me writes:
This pretty much ensures they will not cut fuel subs
They already did, last month, allowing retail prices up about 15-18% IIRC.
Whether they continue to cut is in doubt with reports like this. Just be careful w/ Chinese stats. They haven't nearly the bureaucracy or institutional infrastructure to approach what we've got, and we know ours are cooked/wrong anyway. Bad Chinese numbers are usually a function of Beijing and local satraps at cross purposes and this goes back to imperial times.
Interesting, since late June there have been noises about slowing RMB appreciation, re-instating VAT rebates for key exports, and other export friendly measures. Wen Jiabao and other state council types toured export intensive regions in early July, listening to exporter beefs. Haven't seen anything like that for the past couple years. But buyers have diversified, factories are bailing, and exports are under extreme margin and volume pressure.
No Japan/China rivalry comments can be as glib as what's already been posted, but there is a lot of embedded synergy and business going on right now, despite the frictions.
But agree that at this point the US seems more likely to encounter turmoil first, and the ROW reacts.
What was it in early Bushdom? Something about "while you're trying to figure it out, we create history and the rest of you can sit back and observe?"
Hat tip to SK:
So what happens now that banks are refusing federal checks backed by the US Treasury?
http://tinyurl.com/6bwfb7
The financial situation is basically this IMO; big banks(maybe even Citi) are through the rough patch, regionals now have begun the walk across the coals and their shoes are soaked in kerosene.
A rising tide lifts all boats, use this mini rally as your spot to watch regionals GT0
What?
WaMu won't accept Federal checks?!
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAA!!!
Oh, the irony here on some many levels.
geez. do these lists look similar?
Primary Dealer List - Federal Reserve Bank of New York
here are the 19 stocks where no naked short selling is allowed from July 21 through July 29 (though they may extend it to 30 days):
Canada has a lot of stuff to sell.
And 80% of it gets sold to the US.
Canada has never escaped a US recession and this one won't be different.
Least impact will be on the Prairies where the economy is based on oil and food, two things that people need to buy in good times and bad.
I wonder to what extent infrastructure spending in China will offset reduced exports to the U.S. and Europe.
Isn't it about time for China to begin to develop its internal market? The US economy, if memory serves, grew from the growth of our internal market, not from exports.
If world demand for China's production were a constant and not softening, as seems likely now, isn't there still a point at which it will have risen to meet or even exceed the demands of its export market?
People still seem to see China as a disunited conglomeration as it was before Mao. Mao unified China and gave it a real sense of self. He deserves credit for that. Mao did away with the "old China", it is a different country now.
fwiw, refusing an FDIC check sounds like a teller screwup, not wamu abandoning government deposits at a time when it desperately needs deposits.
Probably a dumb question, but does this impact SKF? Or is it set up in such a way to avoid these restrictions.
in the annual (i know -- who reads these?
) you'll find (page 244) that the entire assets of SKF consist of two agency repo agreements (BAC, UBS counterparties) securing a massive equity swap.
in other words, SKF and like proshares are a construction of derivatives, not shorted shares.
Isn't it about time for China to begin to develop its internal market?
There are a slew of producers for everything from ball bearings to blue jeans that are trying to court that domestic market.
Two major problems they face are a disjointed, though improving, distribution network, and getting paid in a reliable, timely fashion.
Many factories prefer to export since the goods simply are containerized and they immediately get paid by L/C.
Oh, one other problem. The typical local consumer is freaked if he cannot save more than last year, and less freaked about not having the latest gee gaw today.
I seem to recall a major earthquake in China. 80,000 dead. That GDP growth fell a whole 0.5% after that is not remarkable. That it didn't fall
a lot more is.
Re: check refusal;
Could it possibly be the issuing bank that is causing problems?
I just thought back to earlier this summer when I had to write a decent sized check(low 5 figures) and it was my bank(Chase) that was taking their time letting it clear, even though I had 3x that amount in the account.
Could be just another way to prevent(or slow) a bank run.
Interesting point about the exception to naked short selling for option market makers. When these guys take the opposite site of a put buy, they short the stock for hedging. If they can't do that, it will really effect the option markets. If both shorting and buying puts dry up, this could case a very steep and unstable rally.
Not that there is a lot of meat left on the bones of Wach, WaMu, and the like, but why are we allowed to naked short them?
Lack of political connections.
Well, I guess those silly folks standing in line aren't the only ones with a lack of faith in the FDIC. Is there any other explanation for this?
Might some of those folks in line have more than 100K in their accounts? It's hard to believe that there are some people who both have more than 100 K in one bank and have put it a bank with unusually high interest rates. But evidently it's true.
What would be most interesting is to see how many depositors with less than 100k pulled out.
Maybe another round of stimulus checks will generate some more growth for China?
29 visitors. I'm calling a top!
Housing starts juiced by NYC - rush to get permits before new code takes effect - otherwise starts down:
http://www.census.gov/const/www/nrcjune2008notes.pdf
Concerning IndyMac checks. If I recall correctly, checks drawn on IndyMac after the FDIC took over are obviously good. Banks will want to be sure that the checks they cash from IndyMac are drawn on the bank after the FDIC seized control.
If I were concerned, I'd call the FDIC 800 number.
@Troy in the wee small hours -
I am aware that Bob Pisani is an idiot, but that column didn't prove it to me.
What are you referring to?
What are you referring to?
basically the last paragraphs where he contrasts the poor financials (that went up 30%+) and the tech (up 1-4%). Plus the recommendation for energy.
10% growth until the Economic Stimulus (for China) Act of 2008 is spent- oops, it's already spent. Imports at Long Beach are flat. The blank HELOC checks are no more. Equity is negative for anyone who bought or refinanced a house between 2004 and 2006. How low will home prices go? 2002 levels? 2000 levels? Obama and McCain court La Raza (the RACE!) and the NAACP while the middle class of our Nation rots to hell. Michael Savage is right- the USA is dropping to a 2nd world Nation while the UAE is now 1st world. Just keep patronizing the Wal-Marts and see where it gets your country. Sorry, I don't fall for Wal-Mart's patriotic propaganda with the US flag flying above all of their stores and the WWII veteran greeters. The business model of that company is single-handedly destroying the USA.