And as we wind on down the road
Our shadows taller than our soul.
There walks a lady we all know
Who shines white light and wants to show
How evrything still turns to gold.
And if you listen very hard
The tune will come to you at last.
When all are one and one is all
To be a rock and not to roll.
He could also say, "Since I said sorry, everything is forgiven, right? Are you going to buy me an ice cream now and make me feel better? I could really go for some rainbow sherbet."
And were sorry, and theres nothing else we can say."
Well, it would be nice if there was some elaboration on what their reps are hearing as to the reason why the defaults on Prime are spiking. Is it financial-stress related to rising prices, job-related losses, or the dreaded Walk-away?
Markel writes:
So, according to the recent consensus on this blog, anyone who doesn't pull all of their money out of Chase will now be labeled an "idiot," right?
Markel | 07.17.08 - 2:28 pm
My wife works at Chase, says they were getting a lot of questions about FDIC limits after IndyMac stories hit. Ordinary folks have no clue about the relative sizes of these institutions. Still, I think FDIC needs a LOT more in the trust fund, maybe they could borrow it from JPM Chase if it gets bad!
"It's a little ray of sunshine which it's ok to grab onto for now." (Dimon on the somewhat lower than expected HELOC writeoffs, which he credited to "seasonality")
It was an odd conference call. Analysts seemed desperate for some piece of good news to get excited about, but that's about as upbeat as Dimon ever got.
So, according to the recent consensus on this blog, anyone who doesn't pull all of their money out of Chase will now be labeled an "idiot," right?
um, no. The day JPM and/or BAC go is the day we start using New United Yuan notes or somesuch.
Even Cramer's call on BSC the day before it tanked -- "you're money is safe" was talking about investment accounts and not the stock price.
Now, if you're talking about playing the stock, JPM is paying out a 5% divie at this price, which sounds about right even if earnings will come under pressure for the foreseeable future.
Citibank, on the other hand, has a lot more toxic mortgage book and I'm not entirely sure they're going to skate away from their poor decisions 2005-2007.
Hell, I thought it meant never having to say you were terrible.
Tanta | Homepage | 07.17.08 - 2:48 pm | #
Well I guess its a good thing we don't write screen plays about future vice presidents & their squeezes who run for president & win noble prizes for not inventing the internet.
I would imagine he was talking about inflationary pressure to the extreme upside - not a good sign for mortgage rates, especially when we really, really, really want people to buy.
Probably the latter day version of William the Conqueror's 1066 book. He called it the "Doomsday Book".
"Mortgage Book" was probably brought about by some marketing jockey who doesn't like the modern meaning of "Doomsday", no matter how apt it may prove to be.
And yes, I should have put a /sarcasm tag on my original post.
Come on, people! Mortgage Book contains the name and addresses of people who'll be donating their houses to your bank in the near future. If it looks terrible, that means the lawns might be in bad shape and you may need to do some upkeep in the kitchen and bathrooms.
IMO, JPM is the safest bank you could put your money into. I think it's simple - JPM is the most powerful bank in the world and Jamie Dimon is the most powerful banker not chairing a central bank - though he does sit on the board of the FRB's most powerful regional bank, the New York Fed. This gives Jamie plenty of reason to be candid - if JPM fails, the whole world fails.
If you have to take your money out of JPM for fear of them going under, then you should immediately grab the guns, cans, friends... and run for the hills, or the Bankerdome!
The housing story of 2H08 and 2009 is going to be the spread of lower prices to the premium city neighborhoods.
I look at a few different high-priced neighborhoods in Chicago (i.e., one where your avg house sells >$1 mln). Inventory is really accumulating (in some places >2yrs in the $1.5m+ price range), nothing is getting sold, but sellers are still pricing at premia to recent comps and expecting prices well above pre-2007 transactions. People assume all this banking, GSE, and job disruption is taking place on another planet.
Sellers missing out on the spring/summer season, plus more terrible news flow, is really gonna soften up prices. The shock of lower comps will wake people up in a big way.
"Wachovia Inspected by States Over Auction-Rate Sales"
CNN says "raided"...which I find so much more exciting. Sort of like a raid on a brothel or maybe like the crackdown on Rick's in Casablanca. "Inspection" sounds pretty boring.
Lipstick? If we're all prime rib, can't we get at least a little BBQ sauce around here? I have ve been rather worried about mortgage pig, actually.....
I find it utterly retarded that The FBI is raiding Wachophonia, or looking at Indymac, or WM, or LEH, BAC, C, etc, after 3 to 5 years of serious (universally accepted) accounting fraud, which they turned a blind eye to. So what gives now, why the urge for accountability, when the internal and external audits and accounting went along with all this bullshit -- this collusion which rewarded corruption; why does The FBI think it needs to pretend that they have the next Martha Stewart in the paddy wagon -- what bullshit!
Bacon Dreamz, that book is sitting on the shelf in the home office (earlier edition though). It was required reading for one of my wife's actuarial exams
Could someone please tell me how to find "tangible capital equity" for a bank for the purposes of calculating the texas ratio? (non-perf. loans/loss reserves + tang. cap. eq)
Much thanks.
curious-er | 07.17.08 - 3:00 pm | #
"Mortgage Book contains the name and addresses of people who'll be donating their houses to your bank in the near future. "
So it is the "Doomsday Book"
i.e A list of people who matter (to the owner of the book).
Maybe being in the book is Doom for book owner and people in the book.
"So, according to the recent consensus on this blog, anyone who doesn't pull all of their money out of Chase will now be labeled an "idiot," right?"
...do not know about others, but I see Chase as "conservative" (IMO - not a banking pro). I expected Dimon to show "above average "transparency"... so what did you expect him to say?
m,
I just read your link. Interesting if true. I wonder if it is.
Elvis, if this is true, it won't make a difference about the manpower to evict homeowners. The gameplan is financial suicide for the banks so the government is FORCED to bail them out. They don't care about the homes, they are playing hardball; the hardest. (IF TRUE).
Well, that was one of the theories she'd heard (the suicide theory). I kind of doubt that. That would require way more collusion amongst the banks than i could imagine. I would be more inclined to think that there is some regulatory concern, like maybe the banks will be scrutinized for being even-handed.
"buying a house is much different than buying a house on fire"
... funny you remind me of that, I always felt that in recent years the only affordable houses in my neighborhood were those that had "fire damage"... may be that IS the "price target" in this crisis. How symbolic-ironic that would be.
I think if it were true, it would have made some headline somewhere in the past month. It doesn't make sense though, because it's in the banks' interest to keep people in the houses. Empty houses and nonperforming loans are a liability.
The thing about the Fabozzi books, (at least the early ones) is that he didn't write any of it. It was a brilliant move, really; he just compiled all the research we were doing on the street and put it into books, never paid the authors and makes a fortune.
The biggest money was on his conferences. Again, get the people on the street to speak (for free) and charge a fortune, not to mention walking off with the list of all in attendance.
doom,
You are right. It would just be a power play against the gov't. "You want us to play by the rules. Fine. We are going to play exactly by the rules. Watch what happens." Not confident that it happened, though.
Noticed this was supposed to have happened on June 14, over a month ago.
I'm pretty sure June was a typo and it should have been July. For one thing the article was current and referred to simply "Monday", which in context seemed to imply this past Monday. For another, June 14 wasn't a Monday, July was.
m wrote: "obviously, it's not a housing blog, which makes it more disturbing. any thoughts?"
I don't buy it. It's almost certainly just a warped retelling of Bair's announcement that IndyMac foreclosures would be halted.
It wouldn't take much to go from there to "OMG foreclosure workouts are being halted! OMG!"
A policy to not do workouts and only foreclose strikes me as being the kind of significant material information that would have to be announced publicly to shareholders.
Do we know anything about the debt consulting firm she allegedly works for? The first possibility that came to me is that banks, or one particular bank, are calling off talks with clients of this particular firm. Maybe they were recommending some debt workout techniques that weren't so savory?
Total speculation on my part and I don't want to insult some unidentified firm, but it seems more likely to me than a total, industry wide moratorium of any and all modification plans.
The thing is, i've been thinking all along that the problem with these workouts, for the banks, is that you don't have to write it down until there is an agreement.
If you believe, as i do, that they are actually insolvent, then workouts just send them to the dustbin.
As someone whose mortgage was acquired by Chase, I'm nearly insulted. More importantly, my mortgage is not underwater or in default. But then, I suppose, the eye is always drawn to the fat pig wearing lipstick. And she is, afterall, a fascinating horror to study.
I just defend foreclosures; I don't try to do workouts because that's in my opinion a waste of time. I have foreclosure defenses going on now where the person last made a payment a year and a half ago. I have a couple with real defenses (!).
I'm not that good. Something's going on. I have one where all my defenses were overcome months ago, and the Plaintiff's law firm didn't show up, so no judgment. They set it up for a month later, about a month ago, and then they cancelled it. They have not set it up again yet. Totally weird. Good thing is that the borrower finally found a hard equity lender who is willing to re-fi her at great expense, although it's not over until it's over.
Could it be this is some sort of end game? That the recognition of too much loss will cause the insolvency to be so blindingly apparent that the Emperor's nudity can't be ignored?
Whereas, foreclosures can drag on forever, if the Plaintiff's firms are so instructed.
I never thought workouts were feasible; I tell people not to bother, it's a waste of time, since they don't stop the foreclosing while you negotiate, so it doesn't affect me much.
Is this like the volcano belching for days and months before it really blows?
i smell something....
at any rate, i went all the way back to october on her posts and she has been unbelieveably careful not to post personal information. She's very fun to read and well-read. I got my best laugh of the day from her post on identity theft where she says:
"Which means that it behooves you and I to lie our butts off on any non-critical form or attempt to gather our information. You cant do much about the security at banks, the government, and places that really need your info (I do suggest ID theft insurance if you can get it; I have it through PrePaid Legal and its only $13 a month and very worth it). But for everything else, lying is both safer and justified. Ordering magazines? They dont need anything right but your address. Registering on a website? They dont need anything but a working email address; anything else they gather, theyre either intending to sell, or risk losing to ID thieves. And Social Security Numbers, or other hard-to-modify super-secret info? Nobody needs that except the few people legally entitled to it. I highly recommend, if youre American, using Richard Nixons SSN its easy to memorize and makes a great point.
yogi writes:
Could someone please tell me how to find "tangible capital equity" for a bank for the purposes of calculating the texas ratio? (non-perf. loans/loss reserves + tang. cap. eq)
Much thanks.
yogi | 07.17.08 - 3:33 pm |
I believe you can find it on an FDIC call report. Accuity is a database company that also aggregates that kind of stuff... but i think FDIC or one of the other regulators (OCC?) has it downloadable on their site. Just not totally sure.
The name Domesday comes from the Old English word dom, meaning accounting or reckoning. Thus domesday, or doomsday, is literally a day of reckoning, meaning that a lord takes account of what is owed by his subjects.
Re the banks stopping workouts, could it be related to the fact that according to bloomberg, they just figured out that some 43% of the loans reworked in first half of last year are ALREADY 90 days or more delinquent AGAIN?
1st?
You search the world for an honest man... and you find him at JP Morgan? Whoulda thunk?
and no credit for being 1st
Hey - but that's good enough for 3 figures higher on the Dow - go, go Gophers!
So, according to the recent consensus on this blog, anyone who doesn't pull all of their money out of Chase will now be labeled an "idiot," right?
Engrish, please!!!
And as we wind on down the road
Our shadows taller than our soul.
There walks a lady we all know
Who shines white light and wants to show
How evrything still turns to gold.
And if you listen very hard
The tune will come to you at last.
When all are one and one is all
To be a rock and not to roll.
And shes buying a stairway to heaven.
Wachovia going down.
breaking CNN
yours in Christ,
Isamu
Is anyone surprised to see WCI, BZH, LEN, et al hang in there and not go bankrupt? Seems like a domino should topple by year end, no?
He could also say, "Since I said sorry, everything is forgiven, right? Are you going to buy me an ice cream now and make me feel better? I could really go for some rainbow sherbet."
Gamma,
80% of the publics will go BK. It is already written.
or merge.
And were sorry, and theres nothing else we can say."
Well, it would be nice if there was some elaboration on what their reps are hearing as to the reason why the defaults on Prime are spiking. Is it financial-stress related to rising prices, job-related losses, or the dreaded Walk-away?
Throw money at it. Make it go away.
Prime [mortgage book] looks terrible,
Can anyone give me a layman's idea what "mortgage book" is?
(And what looks terrible)
Is it the secondary mortgage market? i hope so because if prime is preforming like garbage we're all in trouble....
wait we.....
...........
Does this mean we are all prime now?
isamu,
Wach is up 12.5% over here. Do you have a link?
.........
I think the mortgage book is about Armageddon, but I could be wrong.
Re: Wachovia comment.
This doesnt mean they are going under FDIC control
Business, financial, personal finance news - CNNMoney.com
Hi y'all,
The following urban legends seem to perpetuate a lot in this blog:
Is it financial-stress related to rising prices, job-related losses, or the dreaded Walk-away?
iceman | 07.17.08 - 2:37 pm | #
Their answer would be... Yes.
I think the mortgage book is about Armageddon, but I could be wrong.
Elvis | 07.17.08 - 2:44 pm | #
ha hahaaaa....
everything is on that sinking ship these days... or so it seems...
..........
Village,
When you are underwater, you swim away. Strike that urban legend of walking away.
Markel writes:
So, according to the recent consensus on this blog, anyone who doesn't pull all of their money out of Chase will now be labeled an "idiot," right?
Markel | 07.17.08 - 2:28 pm
My wife works at Chase, says they were getting a lot of questions about FDIC limits after IndyMac stories hit. Ordinary folks have no clue about the relative sizes of these institutions. Still, I think FDIC needs a LOT more in the trust fund, maybe they could borrow it from JPM Chase if it gets bad!
Does this mean we are all prime now?
No, it means we're all terrible prime now.
"It's a little ray of sunshine which it's ok to grab onto for now." (Dimon on the somewhat lower than expected HELOC writeoffs, which he credited to "seasonality")
It was an odd conference call. Analysts seemed desperate for some piece of good news to get excited about, but that's about as upbeat as Dimon ever got.
oops... forgot /sarcasm
sorry...
No, it means we're all terrible prime now.
Tanta | Homepage | 07.17.08 - 2:45 pm | #
But, but I thought being 'prime' meant never having to say you were sorry...
But, but I thought being 'prime' meant never having to say you were sorry...
Hell, I thought it meant never having to say you were terrible.
So, according to the recent consensus on this blog, anyone who doesn't pull all of their money out of Chase will now be labeled an "idiot," right?
um, no. The day JPM and/or BAC go is the day we start using New United Yuan notes or somesuch.
Even Cramer's call on BSC the day before it tanked -- "you're money is safe" was talking about investment accounts and not the stock price.
Now, if you're talking about playing the stock, JPM is paying out a 5% divie at this price, which sounds about right even if earnings will come under pressure for the foreseeable future.
Citibank, on the other hand, has a lot more toxic mortgage book and I'm not entirely sure they're going to skate away from their poor decisions 2005-2007.
Prime [mortgage book] looks terrible, he told analysts on the call.
That's bullish, right?
It was an odd conference call. Analysts seemed desperate for some piece of good news to get excited about
CNBC: JPM earnings down 50% but beat estimates. Stock up!
Incidentally, I know of a OB-GYN doctor here at Union City, CA who actually walked away from his bay area property...
JP
do you know what [mortgage book] is?
(i dont...
..............
Hell, I thought it meant never having to say you were terrible.
Tanta | Homepage | 07.17.08 - 2:48 pm | #
Well I guess its a good thing we don't write screen plays about future vice presidents & their squeezes who run for president & win noble prizes for not inventing the internet.
He didn't say prime WAS terrible, he said prime LOOKS terrible. Just give ol' prime a shave and a haircut and he'll be looking good again.
No?
I would imagine he was talking about inflationary pressure to the extreme upside - not a good sign for mortgage rates, especially when we really, really, really want people to buy.
With news like that, I think we can do away with the "Mr". This guy is just Dimon. Plain and simple.
So now he's a Dimon in the rough.
cough
Sorry.
do you know what [mortgage book] is?
Probably the latter day version of William the Conqueror's 1066 book. He called it the "Doomsday Book".
"Mortgage Book" was probably brought about by some marketing jockey who doesn't like the modern meaning of "Doomsday", no matter how apt it may prove to be.
And yes, I should have put a /sarcasm tag on my original post.
Just give ol' prime a shave and a haircut and he'll be looking good again.
You forgot the lipstick. The lipstick is VERY important.
Can anyone give me a layman's idea what "mortgage book" is?
this is the bible:
Amazon.com: The Handbook of Mortgage-Backed Securities (9780071460743): Frank Fabozzi: Books
"Prime looks terrible"
Do you think he meant Optimus or Rodimus?
"Incidentally, I know of a OB-GYN doctor here in Union City, CA who ctually walked away from his bay are property..."
And that is where Genius fails.
Come on, people!
Mortgage Book contains the name and addresses of people who'll be donating their houses to your bank in the near future. If it looks terrible, that means the lawns might be in bad shape and you may need to do some upkeep in the kitchen and bathrooms.
BD,
I've actually read that one
I've been crushing Frank's books lately.
..............
"Regulators raid Wachovia Securities"
Shredder sales just jumped 67%
_
Its kinda funny, I'm half way thru one by FF written in the early nineties.
He talks about how securtization "might" take off and what might happen in the MBS / CMO world.
Pretty accurate...
(Granted he didnt see this non-sense coming)
..................
I can picture the New Yorker cover: of Bucky, with Washington's back turned in disgust.
IMO, JPM is the safest bank you could put your money into. I think it's simple - JPM is the most powerful bank in the world and Jamie Dimon is the most powerful banker not chairing a central bank - though he does sit on the board of the FRB's most powerful regional bank, the New York Fed. This gives Jamie plenty of reason to be candid - if JPM fails, the whole world fails.
If you have to take your money out of JPM for fear of them going under, then you should immediately grab the guns, cans, friends... and run for the hills, or the Bankerdome!
The housing story of 2H08 and 2009 is going to be the spread of lower prices to the premium city neighborhoods.
I look at a few different high-priced neighborhoods in Chicago (i.e., one where your avg house sells >$1 mln). Inventory is really accumulating (in some places >2yrs in the $1.5m+ price range), nothing is getting sold, but sellers are still pricing at premia to recent comps and expecting prices well above pre-2007 transactions. People assume all this banking, GSE, and job disruption is taking place on another planet.
Sellers missing out on the spring/summer season, plus more terrible news flow, is really gonna soften up prices. The shock of lower comps will wake people up in a big way.
Can't the Mortgage Pig return to deliver these quotes himself?
I keep hearing commercials saying we are supposed to feed the pig.
The Bloomberg headline re Wachovia says:
"Wachovia Inspected by States Over Auction-Rate Sales"
CNN says "raided"...which I find so much more exciting. Sort of like a raid on a brothel or maybe like the crackdown on Rick's in Casablanca. "Inspection" sounds pretty boring.
Lipstick? If we're all prime rib, can't we get at least a little BBQ sauce around here? I have ve been rather worried about mortgage pig, actually.....
"The shock of lower comps will wake people up in a big way."
Trophy wives for sale! Get your trophy wives here!
The housing story of 2H08 and 2009 is going to be the spread of lower prices to the premium city neighborhoods.
Tell me about it. I live in Charleston, which is the equivalent of the Spanish coast for yuppie New Yorkers and Chicagoians. It's gonna blow soon...
Thanks Oprah!
Treasuries fire sale?
Treasuries fire sale?
Why own Treasuries, when the GSE's have an explicit implied guarantee?
At least he didn't just make that "plbbbb" sound, stick his tongue out and walk off.
I find it utterly retarded that The FBI is raiding Wachophonia, or looking at Indymac, or WM, or LEH, BAC, C, etc, after 3 to 5 years of serious (universally accepted) accounting fraud, which they turned a blind eye to. So what gives now, why the urge for accountability, when the internal and external audits and accounting went along with all this bullshit -- this collusion which rewarded corruption; why does The FBI think it needs to pretend that they have the next Martha Stewart in the paddy wagon -- what bullshit!
Since Mr. Dimon can't think of what more to say, here's a suggestion or two:
"As a result, there will be no bonus for management."
"I'll be taking no salary this year."
"The management team that brought us to this point will be replaced."
tanta, someone put a link on mish's blog that is very concerning. here's the link
Paradoxes!
obviously, it's not a housing blog, which makes it more disturbing. any thoughts?
thanks
m
Bacon Dreamz, that book is sitting on the shelf in the home office (earlier edition though). It was required reading for one of my wife's actuarial exams
Could someone please tell me how to find "tangible capital equity" for a bank for the purposes of calculating the texas ratio? (non-perf. loans/loss reserves + tang. cap. eq)
Much thanks.
m,
If foreclosures is the only option, I'd like to see them try to evict people. Won't have the manpower.
Wally-
JPM management is doing a signficantly better job than just about every other bank. They are the last group I'd be squawking at for pay cuts.
curious-er | 07.17.08 - 3:00 pm | #
"Mortgage Book contains the name and addresses of people who'll be donating their houses to your bank in the near future. "
So it is the "Doomsday Book"
i.e A list of people who matter (to the owner of the book).
Maybe being in the book is Doom for book owner and people in the book.
Looks like i picked the wrong week to stop smoking druj.
"signficantly better job than just about every other bank."
Faint praise.
oops I stand corrected, Fabozzi's handbook of fixed income securities is the one I meant
"So, according to the recent consensus on this blog, anyone who doesn't pull all of their money out of Chase will now be labeled an "idiot," right?"
...do not know about others, but I see Chase as "conservative" (IMO - not a banking pro). I expected Dimon to show "above average "transparency"... so what did you expect him to say?
Very untechnical analysis, but when Dimon told us that buying a house is much different than buying a house on fire, he had a smirk on his face.
m,
I just read your link. Interesting if true. I wonder if it is.
Elvis, if this is true, it won't make a difference about the manpower to evict homeowners. The gameplan is financial suicide for the banks so the government is FORCED to bail them out. They don't care about the homes, they are playing hardball; the hardest. (IF TRUE).
Has anyone else read or heard about this?
Well, that was one of the theories she'd heard (the suicide theory). I kind of doubt that. That would require way more collusion amongst the banks than i could imagine. I would be more inclined to think that there is some regulatory concern, like maybe the banks will be scrutinized for being even-handed.
"buying a house is much different than buying a house on fire"
... funny you remind me of that, I always felt that in recent years the only affordable houses in my neighborhood were those that had "fire damage"... may be that IS the "price target" in this crisis. How symbolic-ironic that would be.
I think if it were true, it would have made some headline somewhere in the past month. It doesn't make sense though, because it's in the banks' interest to keep people in the houses. Empty houses and nonperforming loans are a liability.
The thing about the Fabozzi books, (at least the early ones) is that he didn't write any of it. It was a brilliant move, really; he just compiled all the research we were doing on the street and put it into books, never paid the authors and makes a fortune.
The biggest money was on his conferences. Again, get the people on the street to speak (for free) and charge a fortune, not to mention walking off with the list of all in attendance.
Fabozzi beats all.
doom,
You are right. It would just be a power play against the gov't. "You want us to play by the rules. Fine. We are going to play exactly by the rules. Watch what happens." Not confident that it happened, though.
Throw money at it. Make it go away
That works for a while, but pretty soon they are back again wanting you to throw more money at them. Never satisfied.
Fabozzi is in the Fixed Income Society Hall of Fame. There is literally a Fixed Income Society Hall of Fame
Welcome to FIASI
re: Black Monday 2008
Noticed this was supposed to have happened on June 14, over a month ago. Think much more would have been heard since then if it was fact. Just my take
r
It looks like Angelo Mozilo is in the FIASA hall of fame as well.
2006 Hall of Fame
If selling all of your stockoptions while running the company into the ground doesn't get you banned what does?
Noticed this was supposed to have happened on June 14, over a month ago.
I'm pretty sure June was a typo and it should have been July. For one thing the article was current and referred to simply "Monday", which in context seemed to imply this past Monday. For another, June 14 wasn't a Monday, July was.
So does paying my mortgage even though I'm probably a little underwater make me a retro-hipster?
"Very untechnical analysis, but when Dimon told us that buying a house is much different than buying a house on fire, he had a smirk on his face."
He didn't catch the irony when he said those spreading rumors about Bear should go to jail for a long time:
There's a difference, Jamie Dimon, between yelling "fire" in a crowded theater and yelling "fire" in a crowded theater that's on fire.
...or yelling fire in a crowded jail cell.
...that's on fire.
Let me stand, baby, next to THAT fire...
Apparently having nothing to say sends your stock skyrocketing...
Good strategy, because they'll ignore bad news anyway.
RacerX writes:
It looks like Angelo Mozilo is in the FIASA hall of fame as well.
lol
Hmmm,
34.4 billion - jumbo's
2.5 billion - Alt-A
ok- they could survive this
95.1 billion - home equity
OUCH!!! we have a problem here.
m wrote: "obviously, it's not a housing blog, which makes it more disturbing. any thoughts?"
I don't buy it. It's almost certainly just a warped retelling of Bair's announcement that IndyMac foreclosures would be halted.
It wouldn't take much to go from there to "OMG foreclosure workouts are being halted! OMG!"
A policy to not do workouts and only foreclose strikes me as being the kind of significant material information that would have to be announced publicly to shareholders.
she just posted an update to the blog.
Paradoxes!
Still seems sketchy.
It sure does, but she is not inarticulate.
Do we know anything about the debt consulting firm she allegedly works for? The first possibility that came to me is that banks, or one particular bank, are calling off talks with clients of this particular firm. Maybe they were recommending some debt workout techniques that weren't so savory?
Total speculation on my part and I don't want to insult some unidentified firm, but it seems more likely to me than a total, industry wide moratorium of any and all modification plans.
The thing is, i've been thinking all along that the problem with these workouts, for the banks, is that you don't have to write it down until there is an agreement.
If you believe, as i do, that they are actually insolvent, then workouts just send them to the dustbin.
Foreclosures take time and would buy them time.
I'm going to do some other things, but on the left she lists some of her postings and one of them is
"Fun Stuff Time! [+6] Say Subprime one more time and I kick your teeth in. Seriously. [+12] "
That is an intelligent and articulate description of what happened.
(she also mentions here that she is purposely not mentioning her firm because they wouldn't agree with her.)
she sounds a bit 'new agey' which is not my taste, but she isn't dumb and she seems like she would make that distinction.
As someone whose mortgage was acquired by Chase, I'm nearly insulted. More importantly, my mortgage is not underwater or in default. But then, I suppose, the eye is always drawn to the fat pig wearing lipstick. And she is, afterall, a fascinating horror to study.
I just defend foreclosures; I don't try to do workouts because that's in my opinion a waste of time. I have foreclosure defenses going on now where the person last made a payment a year and a half ago. I have a couple with real defenses (!).
I'm not that good. Something's going on. I have one where all my defenses were overcome months ago, and the Plaintiff's law firm didn't show up, so no judgment. They set it up for a month later, about a month ago, and then they cancelled it. They have not set it up again yet. Totally weird. Good thing is that the borrower finally found a hard equity lender who is willing to re-fi her at great expense, although it's not over until it's over.
Could it be this is some sort of end game? That the recognition of too much loss will cause the insolvency to be so blindingly apparent that the Emperor's nudity can't be ignored?
Whereas, foreclosures can drag on forever, if the Plaintiff's firms are so instructed.
I never thought workouts were feasible; I tell people not to bother, it's a waste of time, since they don't stop the foreclosing while you negotiate, so it doesn't affect me much.
Is this like the volcano belching for days and months before it really blows?
i smell something....
at any rate, i went all the way back to october on her posts and she has been unbelieveably careful not to post personal information. She's very fun to read and well-read. I got my best laugh of the day from her post on identity theft where she says:
"Which means that it behooves you and I to lie our butts off on any non-critical form or attempt to gather our information. You cant do much about the security at banks, the government, and places that really need your info (I do suggest ID theft insurance if you can get it; I have it through PrePaid Legal and its only $13 a month and very worth it). But for everything else, lying is both safer and justified. Ordering magazines? They dont need anything right but your address. Registering on a website? They dont need anything but a working email address; anything else they gather, theyre either intending to sell, or risk losing to ID thieves. And Social Security Numbers, or other hard-to-modify super-secret info? Nobody needs that except the few people legally entitled to it. I highly recommend, if youre American, using Richard Nixons SSN its easy to memorize and makes a great point.
Its 567-68-0515."
You all DO know that it's called the "Domesday Book".... Don't you?
Now, if Erin Callan had said that...
yogi writes:
Could someone please tell me how to find "tangible capital equity" for a bank for the purposes of calculating the texas ratio? (non-perf. loans/loss reserves + tang. cap. eq)
Much thanks.
yogi | 07.17.08 - 3:33 pm |
I believe you can find it on an FDIC call report. Accuity is a database company that also aggregates that kind of stuff... but i think FDIC or one of the other regulators (OCC?) has it downloadable on their site. Just not totally sure.
Bob Mologna,
In fact ...
The name Domesday comes from the Old English word dom, meaning accounting or reckoning. Thus domesday, or doomsday, is literally a day of reckoning, meaning that a lord takes account of what is owed by his subjects.
Domesday Book - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Kinda like "duck tape"
Duct tape - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Re the banks stopping workouts, could it be related to the fact that according to bloomberg, they just figured out that some 43% of the loans reworked in first half of last year are ALREADY 90 days or more delinquent AGAIN?
2 of 5 subprime borrowers who got help defaulted again - Mortgage Insider : The Orange County Register
"I highly recommend, if youre American, using Richard Nixons SSN its easy to memorize and makes a great point.
Its 567-68-0515."
I wonder how many mortgages Richard Nixon has today.
"The future is very, very bright."--Jamie Dimon at FDIC forum, 7/8/08 AP story
Why would Dimon change his tune now?
Industry "best practices" say, "Nothing a new accountant can't solve."