Merrill Lynch is likely to take a new round of writedowns of between $3 billion and $5 billion, and post a possible loss, according to sources inside the firm.
How would you like to be the reporter who 'scooped' that anonymous source from 'inside' the firm?
1) intentional misinformation provided to burn leakers and/or manipulate markets?
or
2) stupid?
File that under the 'that will teach them to talk out of school' file.
Makes you wonder, when people talk about bailing out the speculators, is that risk really there anymore? I mean the main wall street banks are losing billions, is that enough of a beat down to deter bad acts in the future?
Probably not knowing human nature, but I kind of wonder what the sweet spot is between the "we must bail them out, for the children's sake!!!" folks and the "we don't need no water" crowd is.
AllenM,
Take a look at KFN. 15% divvy. Corporate debt version of AHR. KFN is still classified as a REIT but they are in process of shedding REIT status. Nearly all invested in corporate debt.
I think a "if the company loses in excess of one billion dollars on your watch, then you lose your pension" clause in an executive contract isn't too much to ask. But I guess that makes me a dirty commie.
I've been telling you how ridiculously overvalued most small-cap companies in the Russell 2000 are. Today's MER sale of its Bloomberg asset is illustration.
MER sold a 20% stake in Bloomberg back to the company for a reported $4.43 billion. This values Bloomberg at about $16-17 billion.
Bloomberg is considered a blue-chip gem of a small privately held company. Its growth has been spectacular. 12 years ago, MER sold a 10% stake in Bloomberg for about $200 million, which means valuation increased from roughly $2 billion to $16-17 billion in 12 years. That's not quite Google-esque, but close.
According to an article, Bloomberg is estimated to have operating profits of $1.5 billion a year.
Operating profits is earnings before interest and taxes. Bloomberg is known to have low debt, so figure they are earning at least $1 billion a year. That means Bloomberg probably has a P/E ratio (based on today's MER sale) of 15-20 X.
And that's exactly what you would expect to pay for a primo blue-chip small/mid cap company.
Except that all 2,000 companies in the Russell 2000, lumped together now have a TTM P/E of over 70. And soon, it will be over 80-90 due to falling earnings in Q2.
The R2000 has a valuation 4X Bloomberg! Talk about weird.
Why? Because the R2000 Index is being black-boxed for day-to-day speculative, leveraged gains, without any regard for what those companies are actually worth.
There are not more than 3-4 of those companies that are as strong or valuable, per dollar of earnings, as Bloomberg.
One of our top money managers went with Mother Merryl and his pension fund is in MM stock. Just can't tell you how sweet it will be to hear those words "would you like to super size that order Mr. B.". Yes, I would, thank you Ed.
dashingdwl,
I like Anthracite, I have owned it and sold it multiple times since 1999, it does a wonderful job of replicating fear in the markets, combined with a remarkably steady book of business.
They will most likely have to slash the common divvy when CRE blows chunks. They will most likely have to cry and moan about finding long term financing to pick up good deals.
But they seem to always have found ways to make even more money on a fairly small capital base. I further believe that since it has always been a "under the radar" operation, they have been a preferred investment for MER and blackrock insiders.
But hey, your mileage may vary. My wife sold her common at near $15 a share, which was a ludicris price, and just bought preferred for a very large discount.
A good Calculated Risk, as it were;-}
Gotta make up for that 5% hit from GOOG tonight. Ugh.
IBM
crispy&cole | 07.17.08 - 6:17 pm | #
____________________-
Citigroup reports tomorrow before the bell. Wonder if they'll beat lowered expectations or just puke AND cut the divvy. These firms are such black boxes, if they can't even manufacture a 'beat by a penny' you know they're in trouble.
I wonder is there a correlation between SEC and the rest issuing subpoena to market "makers" and expected write-downs from a large financial players? I mean FED should have the first hand information about their none performing loans.
Hope it is not the case because otherwise it would be just sickening = government agencies trying to influence the markets, etc.
Government is definitely trying to influence markets. Where have you been? Paulson wants to be able to buy stocks for christsakes. What's that about? Thats some crazy stuff. The US taxpayer to prop up the equity market!
"Merrill's loss would have been a lot deeper had it not been for a $91 million gain booked on the declining value of the bank's own debt. The move, while counterintuitive, is a legitimate quirk of mark-to-market accounting."
It's totally intuitive, it's just dumb. What is counterintuitive is why $91 million is a big gain when you just lost $5 billion.
Merrill has $61.7 bn cash and equivalents on its balance sheet, it has $36.5 bn in shareholder equity, but it has $34.4 bn in illiquid level 3 trades, both assets and liabilities that it cant get a pricetag on because no one wants these items. Its got $9 bn in toxic subprime collateralized debt obligations, those cut and paste jobs few can make any sense of, with another $4.6 bn in asset-backed securities propped up by corporate bonds and loans. Its got $44 bn in exposures to residential mortgages as well.
Re: A fair value measurement should include an adjustment for risk if market participants would include one in pricing the related asset or liability, even if the adjustment is difficult to determine. Therefore, a measurement (for example, a mark-to-model measurement) that does not include an adjustment for risk would not represent a fair value measurement if market participants would include one in pricing the related asset or liability.
Re: "Our core franchise continues to perform well despite the extremely challenging market environment," said Chief Executive John Thain.
The Wall Street investment bank has posted net losses of $18.65 billion in the past year and taken $43.4 billion in write-downs since the housing market
Bahawhahahahaaaahahahahaha ROTFLMAO..... HOw can he say that and not be sued????
What a total retard....how can shareholders continue with this charade?
Earlier this month, Fitch Ratings said Merrill is at imminent risk of a credit-rating downgrade not only because of the expected additional write-downs, but also because of the amount of debt due to mature in the next year. Fitch noted "diminished expectations that Merrill's fixed income, currency and commodities operations will attain a sustainable level of core profitability in the near-term."
so their net loss is 4.65 Billion
and with 9.75 Billion of the net from write-downs. truly mind blowing that this was for one quarter!
i guess in reading through both news reports and the press release these Merrill is bleeding and the sale of their stake in Bloomberg is just a band aid or...is it a torque and on which limb will gang green set in?
I've been telling you how ridiculously overvalued most small-cap companies in the Russell 2000 are.
You'll get no argument about this from me. And no IT low in the schlock market until RUT breaks its Q1 low -- and does so with gusto. Anything else just doesn't qualify as capitulation.
[GillianX writes:
Government is definitely trying to influence markets. Where have you been? Paulson wants to be able to buy stocks for christsakes. What's that about? Thats some crazy stuff. The US taxpayer to prop up the equity market!]
Where were you when they tried to privatize social security? Can you imagine it now if it had passed?
"Um... so... yeah. We'll we thought it was a great idea. The short sellers certainly made bank. As for your checks... well, see, the thing is, the market fell so... well, that means you guys don't get any more checks. You see, the thing is... well, you all allocated your private accounts into high performing financial stocks... and well, they aren't performing at the moment. Have faith fellow citizens! The market will correct itself! We are planning on buying $XXXXXXXXXXXXX worth of Y and Z that should in theory get you 5cents on the dollar, for now."
I understand that (for example) an SP500 index fund could be run in principle by buying the appropriate stocks in the appropriate amounts, charging fees, and selling shares.
I further understand how those shares could be sold short.
What I don't understand is how a "short SP500" fund could be run. If the fund manager shorts the shares and they go up enough, he gets margin calls, but how does he pass these along to the fund's investors?
"Billy Hill writes:
Sorry for an OT beginner question.
I understand that (for example) an SP500 index fund could be run in principle by buying the appropriate stocks in the appropriate amounts, charging fees, and selling shares.
I further understand how those shares could be sold short.
What I don't understand is how a "short SP500" fund could be run. If the fund manager shorts the shares and they go up enough, he gets margin calls, but how does he pass these along to the fund's investors?"
When the fund sells short, it will be left with cash (used as collateral).
If the stocks go up enough, the fund will get margin calls, and have to buy back shares (at a loss) using the cash on hand. The Net Asset Value of the fund would drop, and the value of the fund shares would drop.
The fund investors are shielded from their investments going below zero, so they won't get margin calls (unless they bought the fund on margin from their broker, in which their broker will contact them.)
If the stocks go up enough, the fund will get margin calls, and have to buy back shares (at a loss) using the cash on hand. The Net Asset Value of the fund would drop, and the value of the fund shares would drop.
Thanks for this explanation. I guess the fund must charge enough in fees to compensate the manager for this risk. I guess "double-short" funds must charge much higher fees for a much higher risk.
I come before you tonight, not in a state of inebriation, but a state of higher consciousness, a state one must dwell within to see the light of market capitalization.
Capitalization is a word, a term, a process and perhaps the root of The American Dream, thus just as well, a part of the current American Nightmare of subprime intoxication, toxicity and the interleaving and insidious nature of the cancerous beast that is destroying a generation of American wealth.
Capitalization is a tool to some, which can be used to evade taxes, shelter taxes, supercharge profits and evade accounting regulations. Capitalization is a form of liquidity that can be subdivided into fractional components that can become derivatives which can link a security to a rube or a shill, or to lemmings, or to retards that are greedy and in lust with the idea that they should have more than what they can't fucking steal.
Capitalization is a profound starting point in understanding the subprime bastardization which is robbing the future value of children whom are just being born -- born into the most corrupt time in American history -- a time where there are no heros, no saints, no good guys like George Bailey, that somehow got stuck in a living room taking charity from strangers in what amounted to socialist welfare.
Ok, I gotta go for a walk..... I may need to work on that last part, have a little chicken and rice.... another shot (this your fault Misean)...
Thanks for this explanation. I guess the fund must charge enough in fees to compensate the manager for this risk. I guess "double-short" funds must charge much higher fees for a much higher risk.
I don't think so. The fund managers themselves are not exposed to any risk: it is all done with Other People (i.e., fund investor)'s Money.
Before I go on that walk, and cook that dinner which will simmer as I gather my wits.
Capitalization is truly at the heart of The American Experience, the core pump that breathes oxygen and life into the blood and fabric which makes us a great (fucking) country!
I bring this point up, because the stock market is no longer a proxy of economic health, the bond markets, commodity mkts, the ICE, the multiple globalized casino-like entities that like parasites, like leeches, like a cancer, took over The American way of life.
We are now a society linked to derivative products that are as ingrained as commercials on TV shows, we are a society that has no clue why the blackbox called a TV works or why it has a cable, or why stock compensation is connected to a currency bet which is linked to the LIBOR. As a society, we have a reatrded mentality that is at odds with understanding the mechanics of supercomputer dice tosses by corporations that have billions of dollars to slosh around the world, in a tsunami of bullshit that splashes from Bermuda to Switzerland to China to London and repackaged in NY City -- we have no comprehension as a society as to what money is, we have no fucking clue as to what is intended by the theoretical conceptualization of what capitalization refers to -- and thus, when a company writes off a few billion, or a bank goes belly up because of capitalization inadequacy, or reserve shortfalls, or technical problems with QSPEs or mark-to-market reality -- what the fuck does that mean, other than our government is corrupt, and has allowed a bunch of crooks to control America!
America should be a free country, free from the evil filth that sit in every fucking chair in The Senate, Congress, DOJ, FTC, SEC, obviously White House... you name it -- it's corrupt -- and capitalization and monetization have nothing to do with building the future, because these bastards are stealing more money than exists!
If the stocks go up enough, the fund will get margin calls, and have to buy back shares (at a loss) using the cash on hand. The Net Asset Value of the fund would drop, and the value of the fund shares would drop.
As far as I know, the double short funds and their ilk don't actually purchase the actual shorts, wherein they would be exposed to margin calls. Instead, the index is created through the over-the-counter swap market. However, someone who is far more educated than I in this should probably pipe up and fill us in on the details as to how this little slight of hand would actually work.
after working at mer for 13 yrs in nyc, any loss of $50mm by a bond trading desk alone would incur firm-wide wrath and firings..thats $50mm...their writedown on cdo-related positions now amounts to $45bln? to think that they are still alive for business is simply preposterous. i just simply cant f'n believe the scope of these losses, which are clearly now criminal..people will goto jail. when does the wrath of district attorneys come into play? how was mer allowed to use 75% of last yr's income to pay bonuses?
I keep seeing this word in relation to ML: from insiders, "analysts", etc. When I read a dictionary, I see that my own understanding of it was basically correct, so how the hell does it make any sense in this context? I thought the journalists at least understood English.
OR... if ML is indeed a franchisee, is
Bernanke the franchisor? Of what,
precisely? Of course that's not really the case, but how telling if that's how ML see themselves!
I hope I never have the displeasure to meet you in person, but if I could just say one thing on this bolg, it has to do with the fact that you seem to be highly corrupt -- you seem to be opening up The American Purse to your friends on Wall Street and you seem to be totally oblivious to accounting and accountability and you seem to lack a fiduciary sense of accountability and you seem to be a fraud in every regard and willing to ignore your oath, and by that I mean the oath you took to serve American taxpayers as a collective aggregate whole -- versus being a paid for whore that works for cash from lobby groups that are in place to bypass the common good and the common trust of Americans, I look at you not just as a whore, but a traitor to America and you represent the filth in Washington that are connected to the parasites on wall street.
June 21, 2004
Chairman Greenspan sworn in for fifth term
Saturday evening Alan Greenspan took the oath of office as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System for a fifth four-year term commencing on June 20, 2004. The oath was administered by Vice President Dick Cheney at the Colorado home of former President Gerald Ford. Witnesses included President and Mrs. Ford and Chairman Greenspans wife, Andrea Mitchell.
hm, I don't understand what did Bernake beyond being there at the very wrong time .
I would prefer watching him rising the interest rates to curb the inflation, however due to tremendous pressure not to do so, I kind of understand his position.
p.s. His MicroEcon text book is very well written,
p.s.s. Fed can not stop recessions, the best it could do is not to screw up, so the recessions do not become "stagnations".
What did Bernake do. Lower interest rates about 7 times and then bailing out Bear and then opening discount windows for shit collateral and usurping power from Congress is just one area to start with. I guess if you connect him to Greenspan and the Fed pumping ARMS and subprime shit for 5 years, that was not good, maybe playing a key role in devaluing the dollar with the ongoing interest rate cuts and not having the balls to let wall street fail -- which it should -- because it's obvious that all the QSPE/derivative shit they linked to bullshit has zero value, and now instead of putting it into a garbage can, Bernanke has taxpayers holing onto it in trade for dollars, which if you don't understand, devalues and dilutes our currency, which makes us a weaker nation, etc, etc...
The reason I brought up capitalization, is because the vast majority of American workers that have 401K's or simple interest money market accounts rely on the premise of stocks having future value. People rely on corporations to reward them. American families depend on the mutual benefit of exchange in regard to saving money to make money -- even if, the investor has a fractional share through a mutual fund.
The problem in the market today, is that average workers are investing in corporations that have turned into global casinos with zero accountability and in many cases, zero assets.
These shell-like companies that are offshore derivative entities and conduits are held by mutual funds, that profit from the act of siphoning off cash flow from 401K rubes, who are fast asleep, safe in bed, dreaming about the future....
Tis a pity they have to work so hard and then depend on crooks!
Fed has two major priorities
1) Inflation watch
2) Stability of Financial System
the reason they didn't act strongly on inflation front yet, is because usually slow down reduces inflation, unfortunately this is not the case right now.
bailout of the B.S. was an attempt to stop the panic; and it wasn't that much of bailout as the takeover.
As of Greenspan and the period of low interest rates. Well how else could government encourage the Competitiveness of US firms when Chinese kept their currency artificially low and no one in Senate or Whitehouse did anything to level the field?
And YEAH, blaming someone else for our RE greed is a good solution; it wasn't me getting an equity loan and getting latest BMW, it was the BAD guys @ the bank that seduced me with their vicious marketing campain...
The only problem, with mentality like that no one will learn the lesson, which is - you ether live within your means or you are screwed!
Even if "you" were fooled by loan sharks, "you" have to take some responsibility. Ignoring the fact that one was too lazy to read the document before signing it will only lead to being duped over and over again in the future.
You mean JPM's result was just a mirage? Oh, first?
Yikes. Just dipped my toes into SKF this afternoon. Will be interesting.
I'm sure the CEO's $2 gazillion dollar golden parachute is intact, tho. Always are.
A Kerviel here, a Kerviel there, and prety soon......
MER FOUND THE KITCHEN SINK!
From CR's CNBC link...
Merrill Lynch is likely to take a new round of writedowns of between $3 billion and $5 billion, and post a possible loss, according to sources inside the firm.
How would you like to be the reporter who 'scooped' that anonymous source from 'inside' the firm?
1) intentional misinformation provided to burn leakers and/or manipulate markets?
or
2) stupid?
File that under the 'that will teach them to talk out of school' file.
and yet the stock has not lost it's closing price from yesterday.....
Roughly three times the forecast loss and it's still green from yesterday...
Gotta admit...they don't even try to hide the props now.
Ciao
MS
Damn... It's raining shoes.
$9.75 Billion is at least a nipple slip. Kinda sexy, but most likely a warm-up for something hotter.
Can someone please ring tomorrow's closing bell today?
dryfly,
Yeah, they're going after those evil short traders who start rumors.
Nevermind about the rumors like the Merrill insider, or all those about Warren Buffet saving a company with his money.
Nah... this ain't the kitchen sink. This is that little sink in the tiny bathroom next to the kitchen.
Mo' pain coming.
Wow, I'm so surprised!!! I thought Merrill was ashining star!!! Now where's my crack pipe.......
Anyone else notice EWZ -4%
Goes hand in hand with oil.....
Ciao
MS
Did XLF really have volume of 527 Million today???? I wonder what kind of volume it does tomorrow. Geez...
Um, well, I closed my COF puts on tuesday when it was $35.
I wonder if I can buy them again with it still over $40.
Nothing like wash rinse, repeat.
As for MER, the rats have been jumping the ship.
I think Blackrock will be glad to find a cheaper relationship for trading and whatnot.
Bought some AHR preferred today, I am a sucker for an 18% divvy.
Especially at the head of the line.
Common can wait.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Nothing like wash rinse, repeat. ++++
Postive Spin - "Merrill was very conservative in their write downs."
Negative Spin - Reality.
"I'm sure the CEO's $2 gazillion dollar golden parachute is intact, tho. Always are."
If anything the poor dears will get a little extra money. For all the stress, don't you know.
TED @1.39...
Makes you wonder, when people talk about bailing out the speculators, is that risk really there anymore? I mean the main wall street banks are losing billions, is that enough of a beat down to deter bad acts in the future?
Probably not knowing human nature, but I kind of wonder what the sweet spot is between the "we must bail them out, for the children's sake!!!" folks and the "we don't need no water" crowd is.
AllenM,
Take a look at KFN. 15% divvy. Corporate debt version of AHR. KFN is still classified as a REIT but they are in process of shedding REIT status. Nearly all invested in corporate debt.
I think a "if the company loses in excess of one billion dollars on your watch, then you lose your pension" clause in an executive contract isn't too much to ask. But I guess that makes me a dirty commie.
CR,
Can explain the 5 BILLION dollar discrepancy between the press release and the WSJ report in greater detail?
Am I missing something here? What gives?
Did their press release sort of, you know, leave out the elephant in the room?
I've been telling you how ridiculously overvalued most small-cap companies in the Russell 2000 are. Today's MER sale of its Bloomberg asset is illustration.
MER sold a 20% stake in Bloomberg back to the company for a reported $4.43 billion. This values Bloomberg at about $16-17 billion.
Bloomberg is considered a blue-chip gem of a small privately held company. Its growth has been spectacular. 12 years ago, MER sold a 10% stake in Bloomberg for about $200 million, which means valuation increased from roughly $2 billion to $16-17 billion in 12 years. That's not quite Google-esque, but close.
According to an article, Bloomberg is estimated to have operating profits of $1.5 billion a year.
Merrill Lynch woes stir Bloomberg speculation
| Reuters
Operating profits is earnings before interest and taxes. Bloomberg is known to have low debt, so figure they are earning at least $1 billion a year. That means Bloomberg probably has a P/E ratio (based on today's MER sale) of 15-20 X.
And that's exactly what you would expect to pay for a primo blue-chip small/mid cap company.
Except that all 2,000 companies in the Russell 2000, lumped together now have a TTM P/E of over 70. And soon, it will be over 80-90 due to falling earnings in Q2.
The R2000 has a valuation 4X Bloomberg! Talk about weird.
Why? Because the R2000 Index is being black-boxed for day-to-day speculative, leveraged gains, without any regard for what those companies are actually worth.
There are not more than 3-4 of those companies that are as strong or valuable, per dollar of earnings, as Bloomberg.
Does anyone think that DOW will finally crash tomorrow? Wishing for it may do. Just close your eyes, and believe...
Wait! I see visions of Bernankaput lowering rates even further by August! Oh well...
MER sold a 20% stake in Bloomberg back to the company for a reported $4.43 billion. This values Bloomberg at about $16-17 billion.
I'd love to see their free cash flow. Are they buying with cash?
rich -
ProShares ETFs - Short Russell2000 - RWM - Overview
Ever see GOOG's balance sheet ? Here's a number the auditor signed off on. This is during a period where even hard assets are getting huge haircuts...
Goodwill 4,791,399
One of our top money managers went with Mother Merryl and his pension fund is in MM stock. Just can't tell you how sweet it will be to hear those words "would you like to super size that order Mr. B.". Yes, I would, thank you Ed.
dashingdwl,
I like Anthracite, I have owned it and sold it multiple times since 1999, it does a wonderful job of replicating fear in the markets, combined with a remarkably steady book of business.
They will most likely have to slash the common divvy when CRE blows chunks. They will most likely have to cry and moan about finding long term financing to pick up good deals.
But they seem to always have found ways to make even more money on a fairly small capital base. I further believe that since it has always been a "under the radar" operation, they have been a preferred investment for MER and blackrock insiders.
But hey, your mileage may vary. My wife sold her common at near $15 a share, which was a ludicris price, and just bought preferred for a very large discount.
A good Calculated Risk, as it were;-}
Gotta make up for that 5% hit from GOOG tonight. Ugh.
Someday this war's gonna end...
wow. a negative $9.75 billion write up. that's fantastic.
I find the best colloquial American speech on this site. It's an education.
Summary (revised):
Missed:
GOOG
MER
AMD
COF
MSFT
Matched:
IBM
This was all priced in right? right? Bueller? Bueller?
Wow...
I've said it before and I'll say it again. I could lose $9.75B doing handstands. And I'd do it for half the salary and bonuses.
Sheesh...
Cheers,
Bloomberg TV on MER conf call:
"Thain pointed that out that they have a profitable business if you strip out all these losses..."
Excuse me?
crispy&cole writes:
Summary (revised):
Missed:
GOOG
MER
AMD
COF
MSFT
Matched:
IBM
crispy&cole | 07.17.08 - 6:17 pm | #
____________________-
Citigroup reports tomorrow before the bell. Wonder if they'll beat lowered expectations or just puke AND cut the divvy. These firms are such black boxes, if they can't even manufacture a 'beat by a penny' you know they're in trouble.
I wonder is there a correlation between SEC and the rest issuing subpoena to market "makers" and expected write-downs from a large financial players? I mean FED should have the first hand information about their none performing loans.
Hope it is not the case because otherwise it would be just sickening = government agencies trying to influence the markets, etc.
MER FOUND THE KITCHEN SINK
That's a big sink.
Seems there's a lotta kitchens in the house as well.
Government is definitely trying to influence markets. Where have you been? Paulson wants to be able to buy stocks for christsakes. What's that about? Thats some crazy stuff. The US taxpayer to prop up the equity market!
Well clearly Merrill is using this capital in a wise manner
Bonus Watch '08: Merrill Lynch - Dealbreaker - A Wall Street Tabloid - Business News Headlines and Financial Gossip
"Merrill's loss would have been a lot deeper had it not been for a $91 million gain booked on the declining value of the bank's own debt. The move, while counterintuitive, is a legitimate quirk of mark-to-market accounting."
It's totally intuitive, it's just dumb. What is counterintuitive is why $91 million is a big gain when you just lost $5 billion.
Merrill has $61.7 bn cash and equivalents on its balance sheet, it has $36.5 bn in shareholder equity, but it has $34.4 bn in illiquid level 3 trades, both assets and liabilities that it cant get a pricetag on because no one wants these items. Its got $9 bn in toxic subprime collateralized debt obligations, those cut and paste jobs few can make any sense of, with another $4.6 bn in asset-backed securities propped up by corporate bonds and loans. Its got $44 bn in exposures to residential mortgages as well.
Re: A fair value measurement should include an adjustment for risk if market participants would include one in pricing the related asset or liability, even if the adjustment is difficult to determine. Therefore, a measurement (for example, a mark-to-model measurement) that does not include an adjustment for risk would not represent a fair value measurement if market participants would include one in pricing the related asset or liability.
Re: "Our core franchise continues to perform well despite the extremely challenging market environment," said Chief Executive John Thain.
The Wall Street investment bank has posted net losses of $18.65 billion in the past year and taken $43.4 billion in write-downs since the housing market
Bahawhahahahaaaahahahahaha ROTFLMAO..... HOw can he say that and not be sued????
What a total retard....how can shareholders continue with this charade?
Earlier this month, Fitch Ratings said Merrill is at imminent risk of a credit-rating downgrade not only because of the expected additional write-downs, but also because of the amount of debt due to mature in the next year. Fitch noted "diminished expectations that Merrill's fixed income, currency and commodities operations will attain a sustainable level of core profitability in the near-term."
er....read the "net" loss wrong...
so their net loss is 4.65 Billion
and with 9.75 Billion of the net from write-downs. truly mind blowing that this was for one quarter!
i guess in reading through both news reports and the press release these Merrill is bleeding and the sale of their stake in Bloomberg is just a band aid or...is it a torque and on which limb will gang green set in?
I've been telling you how ridiculously overvalued most small-cap companies in the Russell 2000 are.
You'll get no argument about this from me. And no IT low in the schlock market until RUT breaks its Q1 low -- and does so with gusto. Anything else just doesn't qualify as capitulation.
and still the stock price is 2.75% above yesterday's close.....in AH trading
Manipulation abounds.
Ciao
MS
[GillianX writes:
Government is definitely trying to influence markets. Where have you been? Paulson wants to be able to buy stocks for christsakes. What's that about? Thats some crazy stuff. The US taxpayer to prop up the equity market!]
Where were you when they tried to privatize social security? Can you imagine it now if it had passed?
"Um... so... yeah. We'll we thought it was a great idea. The short sellers certainly made bank. As for your checks... well, see, the thing is, the market fell so... well, that means you guys don't get any more checks. You see, the thing is... well, you all allocated your private accounts into high performing financial stocks... and well, they aren't performing at the moment. Have faith fellow citizens! The market will correct itself! We are planning on buying $XXXXXXXXXXXXX worth of Y and Z that should in theory get you 5cents on the dollar, for now."
Geez,get a grip,$9.75 Billion? in 10 years that may be the minimum wage.
"in 10 years" a lot can happen in 10 days who is counting years!
""in 10 years" a lot can happen in 10 days who is counting years!"
that's true, I heard for Traders the time is not uniform, sometimes it slows down sometimes it speeds up depending on Volatility and other factors.
Well it was a nice rally. Now back to our regular programming.
Sorry for an OT beginner question.
I understand that (for example) an SP500 index fund could be run in principle by buying the appropriate stocks in the appropriate amounts, charging fees, and selling shares.
I further understand how those shares could be sold short.
What I don't understand is how a "short SP500" fund could be run. If the fund manager shorts the shares and they go up enough, he gets margin calls, but how does he pass these along to the fund's investors?
Pavel Chichikov writes:
I find the best colloquial American speech on this site. It's an education.
Pavel;
You mean like ")(&^&%^(%(" or perhaps "I can't believe that MER just (&)(&^(*)^&^^()***!"
The second one is my wife's favorite.
"Billy Hill writes:
Sorry for an OT beginner question.
I understand that (for example) an SP500 index fund could be run in principle by buying the appropriate stocks in the appropriate amounts, charging fees, and selling shares.
I further understand how those shares could be sold short.
What I don't understand is how a "short SP500" fund could be run. If the fund manager shorts the shares and they go up enough, he gets margin calls, but how does he pass these along to the fund's investors?"
When the fund sells short, it will be left with cash (used as collateral).
If the stocks go up enough, the fund will get margin calls, and have to buy back shares (at a loss) using the cash on hand. The Net Asset Value of the fund would drop, and the value of the fund shares would drop.
The fund investors are shielded from their investments going below zero, so they won't get margin calls (unless they bought the fund on margin from their broker, in which their broker will contact them.)
If the stocks go up enough, the fund will get margin calls, and have to buy back shares (at a loss) using the cash on hand. The Net Asset Value of the fund would drop, and the value of the fund shares would drop.
Thanks for this explanation. I guess the fund must charge enough in fees to compensate the manager for this risk. I guess "double-short" funds must charge much higher fees for a much higher risk.
Friends, enemies and those unsure,
I come before you tonight, not in a state of inebriation, but a state of higher consciousness, a state one must dwell within to see the light of market capitalization.
Capitalization is a word, a term, a process and perhaps the root of The American Dream, thus just as well, a part of the current American Nightmare of subprime intoxication, toxicity and the interleaving and insidious nature of the cancerous beast that is destroying a generation of American wealth.
Capitalization is a tool to some, which can be used to evade taxes, shelter taxes, supercharge profits and evade accounting regulations. Capitalization is a form of liquidity that can be subdivided into fractional components that can become derivatives which can link a security to a rube or a shill, or to lemmings, or to retards that are greedy and in lust with the idea that they should have more than what they can't fucking steal.
Capitalization is a profound starting point in understanding the subprime bastardization which is robbing the future value of children whom are just being born -- born into the most corrupt time in American history -- a time where there are no heros, no saints, no good guys like George Bailey, that somehow got stuck in a living room taking charity from strangers in what amounted to socialist welfare.
Ok, I gotta go for a walk..... I may need to work on that last part, have a little chicken and rice.... another shot (this your fault Misean)...
Thanks for this explanation. I guess the fund must charge enough in fees to compensate the manager for this risk. I guess "double-short" funds must charge much higher fees for a much higher risk.
I don't think so. The fund managers themselves are not exposed to any risk: it is all done with Other People (i.e., fund investor)'s Money.
Ok, wait,
Before I go on that walk, and cook that dinner which will simmer as I gather my wits.
Capitalization is truly at the heart of The American Experience, the core pump that breathes oxygen and life into the blood and fabric which makes us a great (fucking) country!
I bring this point up, because the stock market is no longer a proxy of economic health, the bond markets, commodity mkts, the ICE, the multiple globalized casino-like entities that like parasites, like leeches, like a cancer, took over The American way of life.
We are now a society linked to derivative products that are as ingrained as commercials on TV shows, we are a society that has no clue why the blackbox called a TV works or why it has a cable, or why stock compensation is connected to a currency bet which is linked to the LIBOR. As a society, we have a reatrded mentality that is at odds with understanding the mechanics of supercomputer dice tosses by corporations that have billions of dollars to slosh around the world, in a tsunami of bullshit that splashes from Bermuda to Switzerland to China to London and repackaged in NY City -- we have no comprehension as a society as to what money is, we have no fucking clue as to what is intended by the theoretical conceptualization of what capitalization refers to -- and thus, when a company writes off a few billion, or a bank goes belly up because of capitalization inadequacy, or reserve shortfalls, or technical problems with QSPEs or mark-to-market reality -- what the fuck does that mean, other than our government is corrupt, and has allowed a bunch of crooks to control America!
America should be a free country, free from the evil filth that sit in every fucking chair in The Senate, Congress, DOJ, FTC, SEC, obviously White House... you name it -- it's corrupt -- and capitalization and monetization have nothing to do with building the future, because these bastards are stealing more money than exists!
If the stocks go up enough, the fund will get margin calls, and have to buy back shares (at a loss) using the cash on hand. The Net Asset Value of the fund would drop, and the value of the fund shares would drop.
As far as I know, the double short funds and their ilk don't actually purchase the actual shorts, wherein they would be exposed to margin calls. Instead, the index is created through the over-the-counter swap market. However, someone who is far more educated than I in this should probably pipe up and fill us in on the details as to how this little slight of hand would actually work.
after working at mer for 13 yrs in nyc, any loss of $50mm by a bond trading desk alone would incur firm-wide wrath and firings..thats $50mm...their writedown on cdo-related positions now amounts to $45bln? to think that they are still alive for business is simply preposterous. i just simply cant f'n believe the scope of these losses, which are clearly now criminal..people will goto jail. when does the wrath of district attorneys come into play? how was mer allowed to use 75% of last yr's income to pay bonuses?
how was mer allowed to use 75% of last yr's income to pay bonuses?
smashingpumpkins | 07.17.08 - 9:58 pm | #
"Cuz the folks who paid the bonuses did the crime. 's gonna be a hell of a party.
What's with "franchise"?
I keep seeing this word in relation to ML: from insiders, "analysts", etc. When I read a dictionary, I see that my own understanding of it was basically correct, so how the hell does it make any sense in this context? I thought the journalists at least understood English.
OR... if ML is indeed a franchisee, is
Of course that's not really the case, but how telling if that's how ML see themselves!
Bernanke the franchisor? Of what,
precisely?
Or am I missing an idiom here?
-ag
Mr. Bernanke,
I hope I never have the displeasure to meet you in person, but if I could just say one thing on this bolg, it has to do with the fact that you seem to be highly corrupt -- you seem to be opening up The American Purse to your friends on Wall Street and you seem to be totally oblivious to accounting and accountability and you seem to lack a fiduciary sense of accountability and you seem to be a fraud in every regard and willing to ignore your oath, and by that I mean the oath you took to serve American taxpayers as a collective aggregate whole -- versus being a paid for whore that works for cash from lobby groups that are in place to bypass the common good and the common trust of Americans, I look at you not just as a whore, but a traitor to America and you represent the filth in Washington that are connected to the parasites on wall street.
Let's review, Ben: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11127887/
Ben Bernanke sworn in as 14th Fed chairman
Greenspan successor seen focusing first on the direction of interest rates
FRB: Press Release--Ben S. Bernanke sworn in as fourteenth Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System--February 01, 2006
Ok, what is the oath.....now I feel retarded:
June 21, 2004
Chairman Greenspan sworn in for fifth term
Saturday evening Alan Greenspan took the oath of office as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System for a fifth four-year term commencing on June 20, 2004. The oath was administered by Vice President Dick Cheney at the Colorado home of former President Gerald Ford. Witnesses included President and Mrs. Ford and Chairman Greenspans wife, Andrea Mitchell.
Anybody have the oath of office for bernanke?
hm, I don't understand what did Bernake beyond being there at the very wrong time
.
I would prefer watching him rising the interest rates to curb the inflation, however due to tremendous pressure not to do so, I kind of understand his position.
p.s. His MicroEcon text book is very well written,
p.s.s. Fed can not stop recessions, the best it could do is not to screw up, so the recessions do not become "stagnations".
correction: What did Bernake do.
Can you explain what this is ...
??
I think it's a tit's and ass thing
What did Bernake do. Lower interest rates about 7 times and then bailing out Bear and then opening discount windows for shit collateral and usurping power from Congress is just one area to start with. I guess if you connect him to Greenspan and the Fed pumping ARMS and subprime shit for 5 years, that was not good, maybe playing a key role in devaluing the dollar with the ongoing interest rate cuts and not having the balls to let wall street fail -- which it should -- because it's obvious that all the QSPE/derivative shit they linked to bullshit has zero value, and now instead of putting it into a garbage can, Bernanke has taxpayers holing onto it in trade for dollars, which if you don't understand, devalues and dilutes our currency, which makes us a weaker nation, etc, etc...
What's with "franchise"?
Or am I missing an idiom here?
Yes, we're now using the term sometimes to describe any single business. Confusing, but then, it's probably meant to be.
In closing,
The reason I brought up capitalization, is because the vast majority of American workers that have 401K's or simple interest money market accounts rely on the premise of stocks having future value. People rely on corporations to reward them. American families depend on the mutual benefit of exchange in regard to saving money to make money -- even if, the investor has a fractional share through a mutual fund.
The problem in the market today, is that average workers are investing in corporations that have turned into global casinos with zero accountability and in many cases, zero assets.
These shell-like companies that are offshore derivative entities and conduits are held by mutual funds, that profit from the act of siphoning off cash flow from 401K rubes, who are fast asleep, safe in bed, dreaming about the future....
Tis a pity they have to work so hard and then depend on crooks!
Ame
Fed has two major priorities
1) Inflation watch
2) Stability of Financial System
the reason they didn't act strongly on inflation front yet, is because usually slow down reduces inflation, unfortunately this is not the case right now.
bailout of the B.S. was an attempt to stop the panic; and it wasn't that much of bailout as the takeover.
As of Greenspan and the period of low interest rates. Well how else could government encourage the Competitiveness of US firms when Chinese kept their currency artificially low and no one in Senate or Whitehouse did anything to level the field?
And YEAH, blaming someone else for our RE greed is a good solution; it wasn't me getting an equity loan and getting latest BMW, it was the BAD guys @ the bank that seduced me with their vicious marketing campain...
The only problem, with mentality like that no one will learn the lesson, which is - you ether live within your means or you are screwed!
Even if "you" were fooled by loan sharks, "you" have to take some responsibility. Ignoring the fact that one was too lazy to read the document before signing it will only lead to being duped over and over again in the future.