"There is NO problem, and we are dealing with it"
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Fri, 07/18/2008 - 6:11pm (127 comments)
in
![Syndicate content](/misc/feed.png "Comments for \""There is NO problem, and we are dealing with it"\""){kind=small}
Shopping at Amazon?
Wait! If you click on the Amazon banner link at the top of the page first, HCN will get a percentage of anything you purchase for 24 hours!
Open predictions
Our local book authors
User login
Who's online
There are currently 7 members and 133 guests online.
Currently online
Recent Recommendations
that is so true that it's scary
and funny too
He needs to make the guy look like Bernake. . or Paulso
Secretary paulson understands our frustation
Milton Friedmans Afterlife
Milton Friedman’s Afterlife | Naomi Klein
Naomi Klein recounts in The Shock Doctrine, her compelling study of the dark heart of contemporary capitalism, the idea was to scoop up an entitled few as the storm approached and jet them off to five-star golf resorts, spas or Disneyland. Those who could not afford seats would presumably have to wait for nonexistent buses.
While such a scheme would have seemed outlandish just a decade ago, Ms. Klein shows that the Help Jet concept is in tune with an exploding business trend. The smart money these days is in catastrophe: Hurricanes, tsunamis, political upheavals and wars have become the new profit points in the age of disaster capitalism, which sees cataclysms as exciting market opportunities.
Its a movement rooted in the laissez-faire theories of the late economist Milton Friedman and his disciples at the University of Chicago. Friedman dreamed of depatterning societies, Ms. Klein reminds us, of returning them to a state of pure capitalism, cleansed of all interruptionsgovernment regulations, trade barriers and entrenched interests. The problem was that though Friedman claimed his ideology went hand in glove with spreading democracy, free people just didnt seem to vote for politicians who followed his advice.
Friedmans blueprint for pure capitalismknown as neoliberalismwas finally given its big chance in 1973 in Chile, when the democratically elected government of Salvador Allende was violently overthrown by Augusto Pinochet. From the outset, the brutal dictator relied on a group of Freidman-inspired academics known as the Chicago Boys to radically restructure the nations economy.
Lease the Mortgage Pig for guest appearances!
how about using some of the phrases created here and else where in your cartoons.
such as
we are all sub prime now
hel-oc
sub-crime etc
don't forget hoocoodanode....
It would be funnier if the joke weren't at my expense.
More chuckles for protonerds, nerds, and uber-nerds.
http://davies.lohudblogs.com/files/2008/07/0717davies.jpg
let's come up with a few magic phrases for hank! here is one from an ex boss of mine named Steve Bull "Well...so far thats a pretty definite maybe,but I am not entirely sure".
The problem was that though Friedman claimed his ideology went hand in glove with spreading democracy, free people just didnt seem to vote for politicians who followed his advice.
LOL. That is a serious constraint... I wonder if they took that bug into consideration when they modeled it back at good old UofC.
For a fun item, check out "The Onion" satire site for the article about "Recession plagued US demands another bubble to invest in" too funny.
I still think there is something about "systemic collapse" that sounds very good. Pure competition without the handouts and special treatment would truly favor the smartest/strongest. If that worries you, you are not in a good spot.
While were on the subject of funnies, The onion on bubbles:
Recession-Plagued Nation Demands New Bubble To Invest In | The Onion - America's Finest News Source
oh shit, I should read the haloscan before I post.
JJl it is never a level playing field,but how many people freezing or starving to death is acceptable to you,and how much social unrest? are plagues caused by lack of sanitation ok? These are serious questions.
meh,
Some 4rock blogging:
YouTube - Metal Church - Date with poverty
Cheers,
Speaking of "sub-crime", Roger mudd, CEO of Fannie Mae, actually slipped up during a CNBC interview a couple days ago and said "subcrime" instead of subprime.
He corrected himself of course. Maybe he reads here?
Misean,
I have serious rock blogging on my site if interested.
Tom Stone,
clinically plagues are caused by lack of sanitation. If you subscribe to fractal theory (small patterns repeat to large iterations) then you will know poor sanitation pertains to the banking system. If a big fat bailout/backstop exists (it does) then competition and real "survival" no longer applies. Thus, weakness becomes endemic and things will fail. We are late in the pretend things are normal stage. Be sure you can fish, firestart, and shoot straight!
Sorry, STU read the toons and did not give feedback. Spent 27 years in marketing and advertising and am a bit tired in giving feedback on creative. This is now a fault of mine.
Here is my feedback now - I know its tough to put yourself out there, and you deserve better: Loved #14. Overall, to be forward, they did not challenge me. I liked the premise is every single one but there seemed to be a hook missing. Is it possible your excellent illustration is forcing copy, or is the copy driving the pics. Play with the words, not the meaning.
BTW you have a neat way of capturing facials - no easily done, but you have a good feel. Sucking them in with this is the best start - kill them with copy.
It has always been my experience that copy jumps, not flows. Help me see another view and challenge my perspective.
Thanks for the work.
Sorry to add:
"but how many people freezing or starving to death is acceptable to you"
This is a common nonstarter. Honestly, I could give a crap how many. Cold? Start walking to Florida. Hungry? Learn plants and/or hunting. No reason for either.
Interesting post, Inculcated. The only addition I would have is that Chile, since that revolution, has been one of the most successful countries in the world at emerging out of poverty.
Friedman confused a lot of people; a staunch free market capitalist about everything except the federal reserve, of which he was, for all intents and purposes, a communist. (I think I'm paraphrasing Mises or Hayek, but I heard it so long ago I can't remember)
JJL,
point to it jjl, I'm lazy and just see posts.
Cheers,
Don't quit your day job, Stu!
oob goldberg,
"Friedman confused a lot of people; a staunch free market capitalist about everything except the federal reserve, of which he was, for all intents and purposes, a communist. (I think I'm paraphrasing Mises or Hayek, but I heard it so long ago I can't remember)"
Mises and Hayek though Friedman had lost his nut. Neither would consider him free market.
Cheers,
I hold Mises and Hayek in high regard, but I did hear that Mises could be awful obstinate. I think it was actually a documentary with Friedman speaking where he related a story about some conference in Switzerland in which they were all present, talking about some esoteric element of macroeconomic policy. Mises got so upset that he jumped out of his chair, yelled at the entire group "YOU'RE ALL A BUNCH OF COMMUNISTS", and stormed out of the room.
Periodic irrationality appears to be a prerequisite for economics.
Just hit my "homepage" button. I have Dragonforce, Metallica, and Ozzy up tonight, enjoy the rock!
or Economic Disconnect
It has always been my experience that copy jumps, not flows. Help me see another view and challenge my perspective
thiscartoon, via BR, is one of the funniest op eds I've ever seen.
Stu's were all kinda obvious, and my favorite, the "live fast & die young" one didn't even make the cut
I really found that posted animation funny. But seriously, given enough time, I'm sure Bush could get us all out of this problem. McCain definitely would. And please people, stop calling him "McSame", because he's actually "McDifferent".
As for "Obasame", well that's a different story.
Maybe I am not as sophisticated as most here --but I liked them. I actually laughed out loud at the one with the lender in the unemployment job.
Thanks for shraring Stu!!
oops --unemployment line!
Compassionate Conservative Bus,
Actually , you annoy me. How 'bout John InSane. K cowboy.
Left wing fascist pig. Why I have to put up with these guys.
Bah!
Cheers,
From Inculcated's Naomi Klein article: Although these traumas were often violent, they also involved such economy-wrecking techniques as debt bombs, whereby a new government would be saddled with the debt of the corrupt regime it replaced.
Uh, oh....
JJL,
Not seeing a home page button.
To cure the restless...here'sm a good tune
War pigs
YouTube -
Cheers,
Misean - remember, don't feed them... trolls that is... they might puke on your shoes.
exactly, exactly, exactly. Amazing cartoon, by far the best. What a ridiculous cycle we have:
and so on...
Another thing of note. Last night on the newshour they had FNM's Mudd on. He spoke so much like a politician that I had to force myself to remember that he is in the pricate sector...or is he...
dryfly,
"Misean - remember, don't feed them... trolls that is... they might puke on your shoes."
Copy that,
Cheers,
Please note that although the requirements for the short sale of securities of certain financial services companies recently have changed, customers of ETRADE Securities are not directly affected.
As always, ETRADE Securities will arrange for all stock loans needed by its customers who enter short sale orders.
ultra brutal death metal band
YouTube - ultra brutal death metal band
Right now on PBS, "Bill Moyers Journal" , the show is delving into Federal Reserve's resistance to doing anything about fraudulent lending, despite Ohio's pleas to do so since 2000.
Word's getting out. Hopefully, the public will get up in arms about the governments' efforts to prop up an obscene, fraudulent housing market.
Speaking of starving:
For Some Ohioans, Even Meat Is Out Of Reach
Struggling In Ohio As The Economy Tightens : NPR
All I gotta say is there is a lot of meat on them bones.
They are dealing with the problem all right.
First they fiddle the markets by killing naked shorts for a select few banks, next thing will be the oil markets. I really think they will.
Dick Morris has a short article on speculation, I think they are gonna change the US laws soon to cut it back. if so, maybe DUG goes up, don't know. Here is the link:
STOP OIL SPECULATION NOW! at DickMorris.com
Awesome. An anti Federal Reserve, anti lenders, anti Wall Street show. On Primetime!
Go Bill Moyers!!!
From the NPR article:
Nunez, 40, has never worked and has no high school degree. She says a car accident 17 years ago left her depressed and disabled, incapable of getting a job...
People tell Nunez her daughter could get more money in public assistance if she had a child.
I'm not sure what to think. Either way.
OT:
Anybody have a few extra bucks to spare???
Re: n organization in eastern Idaho that takes in horses from people who cant afford to feed them has had to turn some horses away for the same reason.
Phoenix Equine Rescue and Rehabilitation in Bonneville County cares for 27 horses but is struggling to feed them.
Even one horse is hard to take care of, Brandy Crosby, who runs the organization with two volunteers, told the Post Register.
She said the $100 a month it gets in donations isnt enough to cover the cost of the 100 tons of hay it needs annually. Hay cost $90 a ton last year but now costs $225 a ton.
Crosby said she has even been selling her blood to raise money to buy hay.
"First they fiddle the markets by killing naked shorts for a select few banks, next thing will be the oil markets."
They have been fiddling with the markets since Christ was a corporal only now in the US it is becoming blatant. Oil didn't fall like a rock right after Hanky Panky got that job by accident. The markets are a casino, the golden boys on the exemption list are the dealers, and the house has a stamping machine in the back punching out chips and will be more then happy to lend you some. The job of the casino is to take your money. That's it. They have to keep you playing or the whole thing comes down like a ton of crap right on top of them. Those are the rules, that is how the game works. WANNA PLAY? DON'T BET MORE THEN YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE.
Former Texas Sen. Phil Gramm resigned Friday from his role as GOP presidential candidate John McCain's campaign co-chairman, hoping to quiet the uproar that followed his comments that the United States had become a "nation of whiners" whose constant complaints about the U.S. economy show they are in a "mental recession."
Bawhahahahahhaaaahhhahahahahahahhahaaaaaaa!!!
sigh, instead of a placid forest walk we get a CONGRATULATIONS you WON!!! ad banner now.
I think this is time I make my leave from comments, I need to get my iPhone app out sometime this year.
Thanks all for the fun.
Since I'm so flush since bailing out on my house, post the address for the horses and I'll send them a check.
Naomi Klein. What a woman.
Countdown with Keith Olbermann | Naomi Klein
I shouldn't have called it "Milton's Folly."
"Friedman's F*ck Up." is better.
Blogs were not dreamt of in Uncle Milty's philosophy, however.
Uncle Billy,
This blows mw away, I'm still looking at it:
M.T. : Why did Bachelier introduce Brownian motion?B.B. : To price options. (The options considered by Bachelier were so-mewhat different from the ones we know today.) He uses the incrementsof Brownian motion to model absolute price changes, whereas today,one prefers to use them to model relative price changes (see Samuelson[113, 114, 115] 5 )
http://www.stochastik.uni-freiburg.de/bfsweb/LBachelier/bachelier_kap1.pdf
This is the coolest find of the year for me (maybe)
Brings back memories of Jason Giambi's apology two years ago when he wouldn't say what he was apologizing for. But that he was very sorry.
Didn't want to say the magic words for fear of providing his employer, the Yankees, an opportunity to void his contract.
Uncle B,
Your late; WTF is up, your always here?
only two people online?
hummm
and if one of em is me that means
uhhh
wow there's only one other person here.
it's awfull empty in this big room
hello, hello, hello, hello, (fading echo in the distance)
(uh huh i read all the last 3 threads)
out
Oh well,
I'm pondering efficient markets thesedays:
Re: His thesisis entitled Theory of Speculation and focuses on the applicationof probability to the stock market. First, one may fear that the author had exaggerated the applicability of probability as is oftendone. Fortunately, this is not the case. In his introduction and further in the paragraph entitled Probability in Stock ExchangeOperations, he strives to set limits within which one can legitimately apply this type of reasoning. He does not exaggerate the range of his results, and I do not think that he is deceived by his formulas .M.T. : Poincare does not seem convinced of the applicability of proba-bility to the stock market...
You are adding n oscillations together. The simplest version of this is coin tossing. One of Bacheliers proofs (he had a number of diffe-rent arguments) is a bit like that. On the other hand, what Rayleigh did not see at all, and what Bachelier saw, and Poincare understood and appreciated, was the exploitation of symmetries, the reflection principle, which leads to the law of the maximum. Its something that probably comes from Bertrand [27]. Poincare was undoubtedly the only one capable of quickly understanding the relevance of Bacheliers method to the operations of the Stock Exchange because, as of 1890, he had introduced in celestial mechanicsa method, called the chemins consequents, which involves trajectories.M.T. : Is the reflection principle attributable to Bertrand?B.B. : For coin tossing, yes. The purely combinatorial aspect of thereflection principle is due to Desire Andre, a student of Bertrand. DesireAndre was a mathematician, professor in a parisian lycee . He had writ-ten his thesis, but was never able to obtain a position at the University of Paris. He did some very fine work in combinatorics (1870-1880). The reflection principle in gambling losses can already be found in Bertrand [27], but especially in Emile Borel. But the continuous time version is not obvious.Evidently, Bachelier obtained it in a heuristic fashion, but this is nonetheless remarkable
I'm happy this is posted under the joke section...LOL
FDIC Issues New Deposit Rules for Big Banks
FDIC Issues New Deposit Rules for Big Banks - WSJ.com
The country's largest banks, particularly those more likely to fail, will have to make changes to the way they treat deposits, as federal banking regulators prepare for more trouble in the struggling banking industry.
...
Separately, the FDIC also proposed new rules for how it determines the value and nature of claims against a failed bank. The agency said it will consider whether to make automated sweep transactions at banks of all sizes ineligible for deposit insurance. These refer to transactions that move money back and forth among different accounts to capture higher yields.
Kasriel: Why Buy Treasuries When You Will Be Able to Buy Fed/Treasury-Guaranteed GSEs?
Safe Haven | Why Buy Treasuries When You Will Be Able to Buy Fed/Treasury-Guaranteed GSEs?
...
My bet also is that the Treasury will not have to actually lend a dime to Fannie or Freddie when the authority is granted. And I suspect that Fannie and Freddie will not feel the need to avail themselves of the Federal Reserve's discount window generosity. Why? Because, as mentioned above, an implicit guarantee of these GSEs' is now an explicit guarantee. Once fixed-income investors know this, they will have no credit-risk qualms about buying Fannie's and Freddie's paper.
That was painless, wasn't it? Or was it? Now that Fannie's and Freddie's paper is guaranteed by the Fed and is likely to be guaranteed by the Treasury shortly, if you were inclined to buy Treasury securities, why not buy a near-perfect substitute that is paying a slightly higher yield? In short, the yields on Treasury securities are likely to be higher than they otherwise would be as investors switch out of Treasuries into GSE paper. This means that the Treasury's debt service costs going forward also will be higher than they otherwise would be. And, this means that the current or future tax burden on U.S. taxpayers will be higher than it other wise would be. As I have said on more than one occasion, there is no such thing as a free bailout. Some entity will pay.
An idea that runs throughout this kind of research is that complexity lies somewhere between order and disorder, predictability and surprise. Nobody disputes that there are some characteristics of systems that make them more
complicated, said Dr. Erica Jen, vice president for academic affairs at the Santa Fe Institute. And those characteristics are neither highly ordered nor completely random. A string of numbers with all the same digits is very uninteresting, but a number like pi that has all this structure in it is very interesting. ...As Dr. Lloyd continues to hammer away at a definition, he likes to ask his colleagues what they mean by complexity. After puzzling over the matter, they usually answer with something like this: I cant define it for you, but I know it when I see it.
That, he said, remains the tried and true definition.
Treading a middle ground, David Resler, chief U.S. economist at Nomura Securities, sees the Fed remaining on hold with a 2% fed-funds target but rising bond yields. He sees the economy mired in a growth recession, housing and credit problems bottoming but inflation not worsening.
Ed Yardeni, the chief strategist at eponymously named Yardeni & Co., sees the current slowdown as prolonged, not short and shallow. The Fed is on "perma-pause" with the economy "plodding along, at best." Bond yields typically track nominal gross domestic product growth, which leaves them near current levels.
Ed Hyman, the head of ISI Group, looks for further Fed easing and lower bond yields. "No recession, no recovery" is his theme, though oil is close to pushing the economy into recession in 2009.
David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's chief U.S. economist, sees the economy facing a challenging year ahead with inflation moderating. The Fed will cut rates once the inflation "scare" passes next year, leading to moderate declines in bond yields.
Mel Blanc Space: What's up doc?
Well, I made the family Thomas Jefferson Chicken Fricassee, and then they decided they wanted to watch a dumb movie, so here I am.
Is that you posting all the Brownian stock market stuff? If you turn out to be the Unabomber, I'm really going to be pissed off.
Complexity... now that's some interesting reading.
worth a watch--Bill Moyers from PNW's post above
Mortgage Mess and Wiliam Greider
Bill Moyers Journal . Watch & Listen | PBS
Is chapter 3 of Feller's probability book still the best place to read about the coin-tossing stuff?
Billy:
Nope. Rosenkrantz and Guildenstern are dead.
Been there, done that.
Re Tom Stoppard: in Real Inspector Hound, the high-brow critic reels off a list of literary bigshots, ending with
"Dorothy L Sayers". I recognize all the names on the list except "Birkett"
(it's paired with "Beckett"). Anyone know who that guy is?
uh....
Not yet. ;0
Hound parodies reviewing as well as Agatha Christie's The Mousetrap and mocks the critic's game of identifying sources by having one of the reviewers cite nine of them, including Shakespeare, Pirandello, and farce and existential writers with whom Stoppard has been identified, such as Pinero, Beckett, Kafka and Sartre. St. Paul is thrown in for good measure with Dorothy L. Sayers (but not Agatha Christie) and the name Birkett, which goes nicely with Beckett, is an invitation to zealous scholars to chase his name in dictionaries of the theatre where he will not be found.
TERRY HODGSON, The Plays of Tom Stoppard
4 Visitors Online
I'm sure that is a record
O'Wait 2 Online
So is that a Stoppard reference in the opening minutes of Julian Fellowes's Gosford Park?
I wouldn't put it past him.
Nah, the record was claimed to be zero a few weeks back. But I can't see how that's possible.
CNN.com - Page not found
It's everyone elses fault that I'm a poor money manager, and clumsy. Plus I likes bubbles. RE speculation and frivolous litigation: somehow or other I will support myself (without working) in the style to which I've become accustomed.
here's wot the ozzies are thinking (sorry about the cut&paste but this is behind paywall)
But the most immediate problem for the world economy, in my view, is keeping up the flow of foreign investment into the US.
$US700 billion a year is needed to finance its current account deficit; as a result, for example, $US1.5 trillion of Fannie Maes and Freddie Macs debt is held by foreign investors, along with a record proportion of stocks on the NYSE.
Those foreign investors are all doing it very tough now as the currency falls and the debt and equity securities in which they invested fall as well, sometimes horrendously.
When Japans housing and share markets collapsed in 1990 the Bank of Japan was able to reduce interest rates to zero because the country did not rely on foreign capital.
If the US attempted to do this, foreign investment would dry up completely. Even with official rates at 2 per cent and the yield curve steepening, the major concern now about the US is whether foreign investors in particular the sovereign wealth funds in Asia and the oil-exporters will lose patience.
Last nights short-covering bounce in bank share prices, including Fannie and Freddie, was encouraging, as was the Merrill Lynch survey showing that fund managers are net overweight US equities, but its unlikely the US banks are out of the woods yet.
What has to be avoided at all costs is a run on America by global investors, and right now it is vulnerable to a collapse of confidence because of the combination of falling currency, low interest rates that may have to be cut further and a feeble, confused government in its last days.
A retreat by foreign investors from US and that other Anglo-Saxon deficit country the UK is an Armageddon scenario. The worlds financial system is located in London and New York; without capital they would fail and the system would freeze.
Friedmans blueprint for pure capitalismknown as neoliberalismwas finally given its big chance in 1973 in Chile, when the democratically elected government of Salvador Allende was violently overthrown by Augusto Pinochet. From the outset, the brutal dictator relied on a group of Freidman-inspired academics known as the Chicago Boys to radically restructure the nations economy
I would not blame Pinochet on Friedman, if that is what she is trying to do. I was at Chicago in 1959 and a bunch of Spanish economists arrived to find out what to do to jump start the Spanish economy. The main idea was to radically devalue the peseta to draw in tourists. It worked brilliantly. I went to Spain in the summer of 1960 and a room at the finest hotel in Madrid (the Ritz) cost $6. A room at a very good four star hotel cost $1.50. The economic resurgence of Spain was what made it possible after Franco's death to make a smooth transition to democracy.
Misean:
if you are around, how do you like Dragon's abilities so far?
I looked into it after your post, and I may buy it for my medical dictation. (it's $1600 for the medical version, but the job'll pay for it).
I'm a fast typer (maybe 100+ wpm) but it looks like it gets up to 140wpm which is still 40% faster than I can type, plus it's more accurate (or may be)
Thanks In Advance.
mock turtle,
"only two people online?"
Sorry man, but I got REALLY polluted last night and left my browser open. So it was just you.
Cheers,
The funniest thing I've seen on subprime:
iowahawk: Please Don't Destroy My American Dream
YTL,
well I'm still messing around with it. It's pretty good. I'm posting this using Dragon. I haven't developed its vocabulary yet. But it's pretty good. If I were you, I would try the basic version, which is only $99. That's what I'm using right now. They also have a legal version which is why I'm messing with this, and so far I've found that it really isn't necessary to pay the extra amount of money for legal version. However, given the vocabulary of the medical profession it might pay to have the medical version. I'm rather impressed. But I mean you can try it out for 99 bucks. I think you'd like it.
Cheers,
When the Chinese and Russians (happy owners of hundreds of billions $ of F&F's securities) are going to figure out what's about to happen, Paulson will have to ask congress for an explicit guarantee of F&F's MBS by the U.S. Air Force.
Angry Renter,
Thanks...that was too good.
Cheers,
TOKYO, July 19 (AP) - (Kyodo)The Japanese government has decided to submit to the Diet next year a bill to clarify cases in which lawsuits against foreign governments can be filed with Japanese courts, sources close to the matter said Saturday.
In principle, states are exempted from being treated as defendants by courts in foreign countries under international law. But recently it has become internationally common not to apply this principle to such disputes.
The bill is expected to be based on the convention, the sources said, adding that it will cover possible lawsuits against foreign governments, foreign independent administrative entities and foreign CENTRAL BANKS.
Japan to clarify possible cases of lawsuits against foreign gov'ts+
Thanks. I'll look into it. I think I'm going to get the program... just trying to decide between the $99 or the $199 or the $1600.
as with all things economic, it's dangerous for my company because they're paying for it... so I'm of the mind to just say "what the heck, give me the high priced one!"
but I'd also hate to get the cheap version, and then have to train it all day with words like
"intussusception" and "spondylolisthesis"
YTL,
Yeah, that's what I meant. Medical terminology could give you a friggin' headache with the basic version.
The other cool thing is, it always spells correctly and you can control your computer with it.
For instance, if I were to say "back" in this web page (I'm typing) it would invoke the back function of the web browser. I really only just started playing with it...but it has a lot of nifty shite.
I should think that the medical version for you is the way to go...
Cheers,
"RE writes:
Kasriel: Why Buy Treasuries When You Will Be Able to Buy Fed/Treasury-Guaranteed GSEs?
404 Not Found
10768.htm
... Now that Fannie's and Freddie's paper is guaranteed by the Fed and is likely to be guaranteed by the Treasury shortly, if you were inclined to buy Treasury securities, why not buy a near-perfect substitute that is paying a slightly higher yield? In short, the yields on Treasury securities are likely to be higher than they otherwise would be as investors switch out of Treasuries into GSE paper. This means that the Treasury's debt service costs going forward also will be higher than they otherwise would be. And, this means that the current or future tax burden on U.S. taxpayers will be higher than it other wise would be. ..."
Precisely. So how does an entity get so big and mismanaged and gets my guarantee?
Either national debt gets higher, taxes get higher or interest rates increase. We probably get all three. I am tired of paying for everyone else's SUV, McMansion in the burbs and their stupid wars. But then if I was not paying that would mean I have little or I live in another country.
For today's rock blogging, I would choose radiohead's 'house of cards': RA DIOHEA_D / HOU SE OF_C ARDS - Google Code
Angry Renter writes:
The funniest thing I've seen on subprime:
http://iowahawk.typepad.com/iowa...e-dont- des.html
Angry Renter | Homepage | 07.19.08 - 9:31 am | #
I lived near there 25 years ago - return from time to time for business - eastern Iowa is really pretty much like that, especially near Cedar Rapids/Iowa City (Coralville is a real town on the outskirts of Iowa City).
It is the oddest mix of blue collar ag-factory workers (a rough bunch - I supervised some), rural white trash and well educated university & aerospace professionals you could ever hope to meet. One can only imagine what 'sub-prime' did to that well ordered & stratified universe...
A virtual social bass-o-matic.
"When the Chinese and Russians (happy owners of hundreds of billions $ of F&F's securities) are going to figure out what's about to happen, Paulson will have to ask congress for an explicit guarantee of F&F's MBS by the U.S. Air Force."
They figured it out a long time ago. Russia experienced it first hand. There are easier ways to drop a country to it's knees without even having to fire a shot, let it spend itself into bankruptcy and destroy it's economy. That is the path we are on and they don't have to do a thing.
dryfly,
"A virtual social bass-o-matic."
Time to clean the coffee off the monitor again. ROFL.
Cheers,
Take a run over to the Steve Pearlstein call-in transcript in the WaPoo.
Yikes! He is downbeat. His advice is pull you money out of stocks and flee to safety in short term gov paper.
Stu,
These cold hard times call for more bite. I'd say most of the cartoons are too mild to do justice to the current outrages. Comedy is best when it's fearless and says things most people think but are afraid to say. Isn't that why we find Tanta so funny-there's a "holy shit, I can't believe she said that, but damn she is spot on" response.
Posted under funny 'cause its true...
Zimbabwe to Introduce 100 Billion Dollar Banknote, Reuters Says
By Janice Kew
July 19 (Bloomberg) -- Zimbabwe plans to introduce a 100 billion Zimbabwe dollar banknote, worth about $125 on July 21 as inflation soars, Reuters reported, citing the central bank.
The note will supplement 50 billion dollar bills, the newswire said, citing central bank Governor Gideon Gono. The bank may also raise the amount of cash people can withdraw daily from their bank accounts, Reuters said. The central bank has imposed a withdrawal limit of 100 billion dollars per day, Reuters said.
{snip}
10% or more of the total households in the US are considering bankruptcy per CNN this am..................
And on the BBC the possibility of the US defaulting on it's debt........
And how is your morning?
energy,
Yeah, but the Germans cut off their paper supply, local producers can't provide the quantity or quality necessary to keep the aging printing machines running. AND the French (I think) are about to revoke the software license for the software used in designing notes.
Cheers,
Stu: A bit of information you may be able to use if you're not already aware.
On the Cathedral Church of Saint Peter and Saint Paul - otherwise known as the National Cathedral in Washington DC, among the stained glass and stones from Soloman's Quarry in Jerusalem, you'll find a most unusual carving. On the outside corner is the head of Darth Vader. I've found very few who know this.
The head enforcer of the Empire's rule of the galaxy, who betrayed his son and serves the dark side of the force, is immortalized on our National Cathedral.
Perhaps it's my cynicism and tight tin hat, but I find this rather ironic these days.
When Darth Vader has a place in your national spiritual practice, the end must be near. What next? A statue of 50 Cent in the Rotunda?
BTW I have posted a picture of the Super Colander Tin Foil Hat
Sorry. Page not found.
Cheers,
Please don't short me,
I know not what I do,
Please don't short me,
I can't stop screwing you...
Super Colander Tin Foil Hat
Niiice. But despite the protextion, looks to me as if the wearer needs to summon extraordinary will to fight off the encroaching waves.
RE wrote above about how treasury and fed implicit support will draw bond investors to the GSEs and away from treasuries for, initially higher interest rates,,,seemingly painless bailout, but not, as RE explains..
"This means that the Treasury's debt service costs going forward also will be higher than they otherwise would be. And, this means that the current or future tax burden on U.S. taxpayers will be higher than it other wise would be. As I have said on more than one occasion, there is no such thing as a free bailout. Some entity will pay."
RE | Homepage | 07.19.08 - 2:20 am | #
thanks RE
i found your analysis to be smart and informative.
Misean
you mean i was in that big dark empty room all alone?
from now on i aint gonna vist CR unless my mommy is holding my hand...this is a scary place.
No new posts today? I hope this means CR is at the beach being charmed by Maria B over Mimosa's,and Tanta is getting a footrub from Fabio's smarter brother.
You mean Darth Vadar was actually carved up there on purpose? Not something that was a knight with a helmet that resembled Darth?
Hey, why not?
Darth recanted in the end, didn't he?
Why should our cultural icons not be displayed. Tho it would be odd to see the young Luke Skywalker and the youngish Han Solo up there.
That hat looks pretty effective. But it appears to use loads of aluminum. Have you seen the price of aluminum over the last five years?
I think the tin yarmulke covers the most sensitive area (or at least the area where I have the least amount of hair) and for a fraction of the cost.
Time for a wake and bake.
I find the contrast interesting between Bill Moyers piece on shattered families and neighborhoods caused by irresponsible mortgage practices and the satire on irresponsible borrowers.
One is real and devastating and the other just funny. It reminds me of something attributed to Genet(I think): the worst crime in life is making the concrete abstract.
I wanna post. . .I wanna post. . .pleeez?
Otherwise I have to go downstairs and do the dishes. . .
YTL
about 10 threads down i posted my plans to try to get in at the bottom.
you asked how i was going to call that.
i was waiting for you to post again to respond
three things
i'm studying the relationship between price earnings ratios and NAV (net assett valuation)
im getting much of this information from crestmont research
a great website if you like graphs and macro analysis!!!
also looking at 10 day moving average crossing over the 120 day moving average
third and finally looking at fundamentals as discussed on boards like this...the economy and general flow of the business cycle
i realize this is a fuzzy answer. I'm learning...here! but thats why i said i'm gonna go half in when i think we are near or at the bottom, and then wait for CONFIRMATION for the rest...ie be late to the party with the second half.
Grumble grumble, dishes it is.
Lawyerliz: It's so good it looks photoshopped. You should google him and take a peek.
As for using cultural icons, I find this one to be an odd contrast. But maybe we worship his courage to use the dark side.
Maybe Sally Strother could be the symbol of our national health campaign.
Lawyerliz
you were justified in your defense of self, (description of self) last night.
hopefully those that snarked your way were probably just funnin ya
by the way i knew you were a smart attractive woman who is around my age
from your writing...in shines thru
best
MT
Woohoo, it's the Hit on Shnap's Hot Grandma thread.
I AM THE 999,999th Visitor! Again.It felt SO special the first four or five times it happened,and now ,now, I realize it doesn't even get me a reserved seat on the short bus.Life is NOT FAIR.I'm going to go wash the dishes too,with my tears.
sdtfs
(
stu,
Same blaise crap I see on fine publications as parade and ladies home journal. No bite, no snark. No spice. No read. No laugh. No care.
Tom,
Calculated Risk surpassed 15 million visit this last week. You are special.
Darth Vader as a gargoyle?
Makes sense.
Oh, I wasn't hurt.
When you have to face ridiculous judges, then you can get hurt.
Why thanx Mock T.
And I did do the dishes. The hub is no doubt greatful he is married to such as I.
Darth Vadar as a gargoyle is a great idea. The Shrub as a gargoyle is an even greater idea. Well, he's a gargoyle already, but there needs an appropriate spot to inscribe his visiage. Suggestions?
Lawyerliz
good
yeah
sdtfs thought i was hitting on you
my wife of 30 years got a good laugh outta that
her comment..."you might get a first date talking smooth online...but after the first date that lawyer would see thru all your bs
yea, liz, i'm glad they brought that up. glad it didn't bother you. I traded some of those 17's you originated. Things were so different then. Nobody ever thought about something so novel as to REFINANCE them when rates came down. Years later we would look at the dribs and drabs of those high rate pools and try to imagine who was still paying those payments.
angry renter, that piece made me laugh so hard that tears were in my eyes. i LOVE the smallpox quarantine signs!
m
Inculcated,
Have you actually read Naomi Klein's work? She's an idiot of the highest order. Paleo-lefty.
BG: Can you provide some examples of how she is an "idiot of the highest order"?
"They figured it out a long time ago. Russia experienced it first hand. There are easier ways to drop a country to it's knees without even having to fire a shot, let it spend itself into bankruptcy and destroy it's economy. That is the path we are on and they don't have to do a thing."
Only if a country is catastrophically mis-managed, as the SU was. Russia is potentially the richest country in the world, but the CPSU and Gosplan ran it over the edge into the abyss. The system was so ill-designed in so many ways that they could do no other.
The SU would not have fallen otherwise, but then, it wouldn't have been the SU.
This one is funny.
I re-fied my 15% loan into an adjustible that had an interest rate that dropped nicely every year without me having to re-fi or do anything. when we sold, we only owed about 30 grand.
The S & L that my firm represented had stacks of paper work lined up on a shelf in about '83. What is that sez I?
Oh, said the VP. That pile is the 5.5%s, that the 6%s that the 7%s. . .
this at a time when we were closing at 15-17% and the rates paid on the savings accounts was well over the average income. Disintermediation, is it? They would occasionally swap paper, but basically kept it all. Tried to discount some loans to get rid of them, but then it was discovered that the borrower would have to pay taxes on the difference. Nobody thought to call Uncle Sugar to try to get the code amended as happened recently. So none of the discounting happened. And they had somebody willing to take the loan portfolio at a big discount, but the upper muckity mucks just didn't have the nerve to do this. Or, maybe there were no good choices. This S & L disappeared with all the rest, after the closing dept including me all lost our jobs. I found a new one in weeks. The S & L tried to open its own title company, which was also a miserable failure. One VP told me he didn't understand adjustible mtges. I guess that explains why they went in heavily to not merely adjustible, but neg am mtges which of course all went into foreclosure.
They did originate a GEM. Growing Equity Mtg, which went up a few ticks each year, all of the additional funds going toward principal. Those didn't go into foreclosure.
I guess this is a good reason not to live forever. By the time you experience virtually the same stupidity for the 6th time, you just don't want to experience it any more.
BG writes:
Have you actually read Naomi Klein's work? She's an idiot of the highest order. Paleo-lefty.
BG | 07.19.08 - 1:48 pm | #
BG have you ever read Charles Krauthammer's work? He's an idiot of the highest order. Paleo-neo-con
now-there, wasnt that fun...we both engaged in name calling and never risked saying anything perceptive or intelligent.
however, if you would like to cite one of her arguments and state why you think she's wrong, i might agree with you on that particular point, or indicate why i think you are in error...
but, hey, that's so william f buckley
( a great conservative, whom this liberal greatly respected.)
The shrub as a gargoyle.... haha!
That made me prematurely exhale and lose a good toke. Thanks, Liz.
I would appreciate if BG would explain why Klein is such an idiot. I've read her work and I respect her courage and value her contribution to the discussion.
If I am misguided, I would truly appreciate learning the truth.
Thanks in advance, BG.
CSC,
Klein's "Shock Doctrine" was utterly fact-free garbage. She wastes 400 pages on tendentious, not to say "tin-foil worthy", claims of vast conspiracies. She oversimplifies all discussions in order to push an agenda. Also, she's an anti-capitalist and therefore unsurprisingly of little intellectual worth