But I trust Amex (I'm a customer). This report casts doubt on all the other large credit card issuers who said NPA in credit cards increased but everything is fine (I'm looking at you Capital One, Citi, and JPM Morgan Chase).
WASHINGTON, July 21 (Reuters) - The White House on Monday said it hoped for progress on a sweeping housing rescue plan by the end of this week, but reiterated a veto threat over a provision that Congress looks likely to include in the bill.
[snip]
The Congressional Budget Office is trying to estimate how much it might cost to assist Fannie and Freddie. It has scheduled a news conference for Tuesday morning to discuss "the fiscal impact of the administration's request for new authority to provide financial support for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac."
"For the quarter ended June 29, SanDisk said it lost $68 million, or 30 cents a share, compared with earnings of $28 million, or 12 cents a share, for the same period last year. Excluding the impact of acquisition-related charges and stock-option expenses, the company said losses for the recent quarter would have totaled $22 million, or 10 cents a share."
Analysts were expecting +13 cents, so the miss was by 23 cents.
Aren't these credit card securities unloadable at the Fed window? That means people borrow money from American Express, which gets its money from Uncle Sam, who gets his money from...
Michael,
Even during global warming, people always need snowmobiles. In fact, I just saw a whole convoy of snowmobiles go down my street even though it is July and there is no snow. No surprise that Polaris beat.
This is gonna piss off Warren and Charlie and yah know they just hate that derivative crap that connects that $30 billion to goodwill hocus pocus @ Hathaway. Very bad boys!
Those families will at least have Polaris to go out and ride around.
AMEX is not doing all that well. What is the surprise? I am so sick and tired of these finance executives trying to paint the economy in such a dark light. Economy is just fine.
They all want to be bailed out, that's what's happening. I hope you guys get that and quit all this whining. BANKS WANT TO BE BAILED OUT!!!!!
The White House on Monday said it hoped for progress on a sweeping housing rescue plan by the end of this week, but reiterated a veto threat over a provision that Congress looks likely to include in the bill.
This kind of assistance can work in certain circumstances.
The idea is that when one organ in the economy is too sick to perform its function, for a time an additional burden can be put on the rest of the organs while the ailing part recovers.
The problem now is really you have a systemic disease that's spread through the entire corpus and there's no healthy organs to shift the burden to. Maybe there are a few parts of the economy that are still well, but generally those parts are smart enough to whisk their wealth away to foreign countries the second the congress tries to tap it.
So what can they really do?
Are they going to take money from ailing taxpayers to help the same taxpayers? How does that make things better?
Or are the simply going to continue to wreck the US balance sheet and the dollar driving up costs and interest rates?
How does that help?
What store of wealth and aid does the congress have here to tap?
What can they really do materially to help, or is this all just more "smoke and mirrors" to make it look like they're doing something beneficial when they're really not?
Maybe Bernanke knows this and this is why he refuses to make suggestions.
Need to see Brian Westbury's reactions to the missed earnings against lowered estimates and lowered guidance, since, you know, GDP is poised to take OFF!
A coworker in the cubicle over (in his late 40s) is talking about cashing out his 401K and putting it into stones - diamonds, I assume. It sounds like he's been giving it thought for some time, he's talking about the different grades, facets, colors, etc.
4 pm NOAA update has TS Dolly still pointed at Brownsville (Texas/Mexico border) landfall likely early Weds morning (expected to slow and strengthen over Gulf of Mexico waters).
Speaking of 401Ks, the quarterly statement came last week.
Ouch. My plan started in June 2006 and everything was basically back to there, except the MM with its piddling 3-4% returns (which were lower than 90-day t-bills for some strange reason for a while).
This is all fuc-ing good news; has anyone here, in truth, seen with their eyes, news which is bad, no! You see banks crashing and corruption, greed, decay, chaos, what does that really spell, that spells opportunity, opportunity to drink vodka and behave like wild dog in junk yard, taking advantage of small blips in the housing mkt, small declines in profits, small losses in currency valuation, decreased, yields, parabolic commodity explosions pushing oil to the roof. Are you people retarded, this is a great opportunity to put your cash yo use and use leverage of maybe 20,000 to 1, these are odds that you can maybe get in Monoco or Cayman, but, this is here, now, for real, in your faces, in your pockets and wallets, checkbooks and money mkts, this is the time to shove your pennies into the fire and burn your fingers, as if stealing a tube filled with uranium from Soviet Union; this is opportunity to place yourself upon the wheels of fate and go for a ride that may result in your ability to obtain larger home, with larger wife, bigger bottles of vodka and tresure everywhere. Do as I say, and live well and prosper!
Speaking of 401Ks, the quarterly statement came last week
I think that's what set off my coworker and his diamond run. Part of the discussion was about FNM / FRE and the hit to retirement plans.
Wow. We're, like, seeing a true collapse in faith. I never thought it would actually happen. Nobody else around me seemed to be paying attention until the past few weeks.
U.S. stock futures fell after Monday's closing bell, indicating Wall Street may open lower on Tuesday, after iPod maker Apple Inc (AAPL.O: Quote, Profile, Research), credit card company American Express (AXP.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and memory chip maker Sandisk (SNDK.O: Quote, Profile, Research) reported results that disappointed investors.
S&P 500 futures SPc1 fell 10.6 points and were below fair value, a mathematical formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract.
ITS OFFICIAL:
Wachovia Corp (NYSE:WB - News), the fourth-largest U.S. bank, on Monday said its main mortgage unit will stop offering home loans through brokers this week, joining a growing number of lenders to curb wholesale lending
News from Cape Cod- Tourism is booming. Scuttlebutt is the European vacations are out and local Cape Cod vacations are in. Eateries doing great and lobster shacks are actually selling out of lobsters half way through the day. I have never seen it like this.
I presume that at the right time, given the precedent of no naked short selling, the attempted rooting out of 'predatory' short selling, and the suing of analysts who make negative comments about banks, that we'll get some 'guidance' from the SEC to limit downward guidance from companies to Easter and Christmas weekends.
Otherwise, the poor PPT folks have to guard against untoward movements in futures every afternoon and evening.
The report issued Monday estimates $6.1 billion a year is required for basic improvements to Michigan's roads and bridges. That's about twice current spending and a significantly bigger increase than previously suggested by business groups and some lawmakers.
OT there, so sorry for interuption, many bows, sorry, sorry..
I think the US should collectively consider a lower standard of road repair. Too much money is spent on roads. Prisoners should be on chain gangs again and fix roads. Dirt roads for outlying areas. Road repair surcharges on vehicles over 6000lbs. Except, my road should remain well maintained.
"Of course after ten to twelve miles of strenous hiking boiled food in a bag actually tastes good."
Not as good as regular food. The problem with backpacking is that beer is heavy. My backpack always weighs so damn much. But, I find, if I can drink a beer every mile, the pack weight gets manageable.
Elvis,
I once brought some very nice brandy (Cardinal Mendoza) to the bottom of the Grand Canyon. After we drank that painkiller, the night's sleep was very deep indeed. The pack was much lighter for the ascent.
But hey, hiking food is survival food. But you only eat if you need to survive.
First I have another 30 pounds of spare tire to remove.
Middle age sucks, you try to get back into shape and it no longer is as easy as it was at 26. Booo hoo.
Every time my parabola detectors go off (like they are tonight in tech, gold and the U$D) there is a late announcement that Ben will be speaking at 10am for 3 or 4 hours in a previously unheard of but nevertheless regularly-scheduled fortnightly address to Congress.
Some day I expect to see him run over by Mr Market down 500 points on it's way to a Rule80B halt. Get ready to reflate that Whirly.
My confession for today is taking a 7% profit in one-session on TSO. Granted all of the refiners were up large today, however the "world is ending pile into hard-stuff" trade may not be off yet noting a repeat of Rita may be 48 hours away never mind that Iran is a storm brewing as well. Wonder if Blankfein was at the table Saturday noting G.S.'s call for $ 200 a barrel.
"The environment has weakened significantly since then"
Going to hear a lot of that and with the assholes in DC that are in charge of this country one can reasonably expect that everything they do trying to stop it will make it that much worse.
Are they going to take money from ailing taxpayers to help the same taxpayers? How does that make things better?
Or are the simply going to continue to wreck the US balance sheet and the dollar driving up costs and interest rates?
How does that help?
What store of wealth and aid does the congress have here to tap?
What can they really do materially to help, or is this all just more "smoke and mirrors" to make it look like they're doing something beneficial when they're really not?
Maybe Bernanke knows this and this is why he refuses to make suggestions."
ac | 07.21.08 - 4:59 pm | #
AC what about the Gold in Fort Knox, sort of like releasing crude from the SPR at $ 130+ a brrl.?
Wonder how much of Amex's issue is places refusing to take it? I know that of the stores I shop at, two have dropped Amex in the last couple of months. Apparently they charge more than either Visa or MC, and retailers are squeezed enough that they'd rather keep the extra 2%.
I think Amex's problems run quite a bit deeper than most realize. They have a substantial amount of credit risk. When I posted my initial analysis of them a couple of weeks ago, naming them as one of my best shorts (everyone thought they were untouchable, much like Goldman Sachs who is also significantly overvalued, more on that later) many people hemmed and hawed. A close look at their numbers show that they are a ticking time bomb.
I know many call me an uber bear, but I am not. I am just a realist, apparently unlike the 16 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters (see below):
" American Express said second-quarter net income came in at $653 million, or 56 cents a share, vs. $1.06 billion, or 88 cents a share, the same period a year earlier.
The latest results include $600 million that the company added to reserves to cover bad loans in the U.S., the company said. There was also one other $136 million charge and a tax benefit of $101 million.
American Express was expected to make 83 cents a share, according to the average estimate of 16 analysts in a Thomson Reuters survey."
Even the company itself appeared to fail to face reality, at least as it appears from their official stance:
"The second quarter results included a $600 million ($374 million after-tax) addition to U.S. lending credit reserves that reflects a deterioration of credit indicators beyond our prior expectation, and a $136 million ($85 million after-tax) charge to the fair market value of the Companys retained interest in securitized Cardmember loans."
Now, why is it that I was able to see this with a simple scan and a skeleton staff (a very smart and capable staff, but skeleton nonetheless) but all of those heavily funded research desks (okay, maybe not anymore, but still funded better than my operation) and the company itself (who failed to pare back in time) could not see it coming?
That long run-on is actually the basis for my investment thesis. The financial companies are quite overvalued (as an entire sector) and still have much, much farther to fall. They will be the catalysts for a global compression in the industrial, retail and manufacturing sectors - and China and Europe will probably beat the US to the bottom of the heap.
Again, I am not a bear, I am a realist with a spreadsheet!
I will post a detailed analysis an description on the overvaluation of Goldman some time tonight and will follow up with the same on Amex and probably HSBC.
Prisoners should be on chain gangs again and fix roads.
No chain gangs, but the county prisoners do road repairs around here. They fixed the road in front of my place a few months back. Even got a boss hogg type to keep em in line.
I just remember the Circus TV acting like VISA was the second coming ... = AKa the next Great Short ,,, Blackstone was the first coming and the top of the market and look @ that track record
reminds about NY Times article on flight of poor us, consumers. This poor lady (average joe, is she? ) is paying 20+K interest a year. Ironically enough, decent portion of those were due on her local "bling-bling" store account.
ah, that evil corporate america...
mmmm. Ex-purse maybe?
Sounds ugly. AMEX caters to a higher-rent crowd than Visa and MasterCard, too.
with Amex you have to pay at the end of the month, No?
Better use MC or Visa and wait for bailout First.
Team America! F*&$ Yea!
my comment makes no sense without the typo. CR, you are simply too good and too fast. Not that I'm complaining. Really.
ugly, ugly, ugly
But I trust Amex (I'm a customer). This report casts doubt on all the other large credit card issuers who said NPA in credit cards increased but everything is fine (I'm looking at you Capital One, Citi, and JPM Morgan Chase).
Texas Instruments just warned too. This is a funny comment:
"If demand strengthens as quickly as it slowed, we are well-positioned to meet it."
I suppose GM and Ford could say the same thing ... and all the homebuilders!
Best to all.
dk-
I've had that song playing in my head for the last 6 months.....
Ciao
MS
Yen carry trade about to be replaced by the dollar paper trade. USD getting hit hard now.
One word: Plastic.
It's like the comment that came out of the MER CC...
"without all those losses we would have been profitable".....
Ya think?
Ciao
MS
The environment has weakened significantly since then, particularly during the month of June.
Yeah but this is July. Didn't they get the memo? Everything has bottomed now.
I agree. Go back and read's C's statement on their Cards portfolio. There's something rotten in those numbers.
Amex is the only financial to lay it out straight...
"The environment has weakened significantly since then, particularly during the month of June".
Bad news. Time for them to learn how to do earnings the BOA and Citi way.
Apple beats but guides lower for next quarter.
"If demand strengthens as quickly as it slowed, we are well-positioned to meet it."
But what if it slows as quickly as it slowed?
May I suggest renaming the company into "Euro Express" (EXP) to improve its financial position.
That should be an interesting show tomorrow...
UPDATE 3-White House seeks movement on US housing bill
By Kevin Drawbaugh and Tabassum Zakaria
WASHINGTON, July 21 (Reuters) - The White House on Monday said it hoped for progress on a sweeping housing rescue plan by the end of this week, but reiterated a veto threat over a provision that Congress looks likely to include in the bill.
[snip]
The Congressional Budget Office is trying to estimate how much it might cost to assist Fannie and Freddie. It has scheduled a news conference for Tuesday morning to discuss "the fiscal impact of the administration's request for new authority to provide financial support for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac."
[snip]
"If demand strengthens as quickly as it slowed, we are well-positioned to meet it."
Maybe they should change their name to Texas Inventory.
Apple always beats and guides lower. That's a perpetual game with them.
Consumer spending slowed during the latter part of the quarter and credit indicators deteriorated beyond our expectations.
Does this mean the consumer bailout checks people are getting from the IRS aren't really helping?
ac,
That or the baseline was actually much worse...
"If demand strengthens as quickly as it slowed, we are well-positioned to meet it."
Well there is a silver lining!
I'd love to hear the possible scenarios that would lead to this.
The rebate checks are going to gas and not plastic...
I have one word for you: Polaris.
Polaris beat estimates. Things cannot be that bad when Polaris gets to have the best quarter in history.
Apart from the credit related parts of the economy, business is pretty good. I can tell from my experience and my family and friends.
And Sandisk misses.
"For the quarter ended June 29, SanDisk said it lost $68 million, or 30 cents a share, compared with earnings of $28 million, or 12 cents a share, for the same period last year. Excluding the impact of acquisition-related charges and stock-option expenses, the company said losses for the recent quarter would have totaled $22 million, or 10 cents a share."
Analysts were expecting +13 cents, so the miss was by 23 cents.
Does this mean the consumer bailout checks people are getting from the IRS aren't really helping?
ac,
Perhaps the opposite: bailout checks helped "too much" that people didn't use AMEX CC anymore?
Aren't these credit card securities unloadable at the Fed window? That means people borrow money from American Express, which gets its money from Uncle Sam, who gets his money from...
Ruh Roh.
Did Mr Chenault suggest that another stimulus might be a good idea since apparently the last one didn't last through June.
Running out of furniture to heat the house. Now what?
The rebate checks are going to gas and not plastic...
Well at 18%, $600 can cover 10 months of interest on a $4000 balance.
Nemo writes:
"If demand strengthens as quickly as it slowed, we are well-positioned to meet it."
But what if it slows as quickly as it slowed?
TI managers should ask their engineers to explain exponential decay to them.
Running out of furniture to heat the house. Now what?
Quick! Import more furniture from China!
Michael,
Even during global warming, people always need snowmobiles. In fact, I just saw a whole convoy of snowmobiles go down my street even though it is July and there is no snow. No surprise that Polaris beat.
Meeting lowered expectations -- a race to the bottom!
Experts have modeled what would happen to the US if the needed amount of capital is injected into the economy.
It doesn't look good.
YouTube - WASP Injection Knife vs. Watermelon
This is gonna piss off Warren and Charlie and yah know they just hate that derivative crap that connects that $30 billion to goodwill hocus pocus @ Hathaway. Very bad boys!
AAPL getting a bit of an after hours woodshedding...now if AMZN can just complete the trifecta after the close on Wednesday!
My friend who live in Orange county CA, said last month electric bill was $450 due to use of AC.
This winter will be ugly for many families in cold areas.
This winter will be ugly for many families in cold areas.
wawawa
Not with their new snowmobiles.
It is a lil peculiar that financials have most of their earnings "better than expected" while tech which was mostly positive among analysts "missed".
WAMU and YAHOO tomorrow should be very interesting indeed.
wawawa,
Those families will at least have Polaris to go out and ride around.
AMEX is not doing all that well. What is the surprise? I am so sick and tired of these finance executives trying to paint the economy in such a dark light. Economy is just fine.
They all want to be bailed out, that's what's happening. I hope you guys get that and quit all this whining. BANKS WANT TO BE BAILED OUT!!!!!
The White House on Monday said it hoped for progress on a sweeping housing rescue plan by the end of this week, but reiterated a veto threat over a provision that Congress looks likely to include in the bill.
This kind of assistance can work in certain circumstances.
The idea is that when one organ in the economy is too sick to perform its function, for a time an additional burden can be put on the rest of the organs while the ailing part recovers.
The problem now is really you have a systemic disease that's spread through the entire corpus and there's no healthy organs to shift the burden to. Maybe there are a few parts of the economy that are still well, but generally those parts are smart enough to whisk their wealth away to foreign countries the second the congress tries to tap it.
So what can they really do?
Are they going to take money from ailing taxpayers to help the same taxpayers? How does that make things better?
Or are the simply going to continue to wreck the US balance sheet and the dollar driving up costs and interest rates?
How does that help?
What store of wealth and aid does the congress have here to tap?
What can they really do materially to help, or is this all just more "smoke and mirrors" to make it look like they're doing something beneficial when they're really not?
Maybe Bernanke knows this and this is why he refuses to make suggestions.
Need to see Brian Westbury's reactions to the missed earnings against lowered estimates and lowered guidance, since, you know, GDP is poised to take OFF!
I remember when $1B in gross was good quarter for AAPL, not net. Then again the stock was ~$9 back then.
No on-air orgasm today for the money honey.
Does anyone know what was said in the Wachovia conference call?
Time to put the puts back on COF,
they definitely are not going to be saved by what's in my wallet.
The office posting is funny.
I call 'em "See Throughs"
I guess it will be a long wait for some really good news.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Enron: The Untold Story - From History's Hidden Engine
Socionomics Institute - History's Hidden Engine
A coworker in the cubicle over (in his late 40s) is talking about cashing out his 401K and putting it into stones - diamonds, I assume. It sounds like he's been giving it thought for some time, he's talking about the different grades, facets, colors, etc.
Wow.
I'm a bit surprised.
anon-
Isn't it refreshing that Andy Fastow is currently in jail for doing nothing more than what the entire financial industry is doing at present??
he's got to be stewing big time....I would be.
Ciao
MS
Maybe he just needs a new set of testicles.
A coworker in the cubicle over (in his late 40s) is talking about cashing out his 401K and putting it into stones - diamonds, I assume.
Can't you make this with a pressure cooker you get from Wal-Mart now?
I don't know if I'd put my wealth in anything "rare" they can crank out in a factory.
4 pm NOAA update has TS Dolly still pointed at Brownsville (Texas/Mexico border) landfall likely early Weds morning (expected to slow and strengthen over Gulf of Mexico waters).
If it hits the Rio Grande Valley expect some fruit and vegetable prices to go up.
UPDATE 3-White House seeks movement on US housing bill
By Kevin Drawbaugh and Tabassum Zakaria
As in bowel?
Speaking of 401Ks, the quarterly statement came last week.
Ouch. My plan started in June 2006 and everything was basically back to there, except the MM with its piddling 3-4% returns (which were lower than 90-day t-bills for some strange reason for a while).
This is all fuc-ing good news; has anyone here, in truth, seen with their eyes, news which is bad, no! You see banks crashing and corruption, greed, decay, chaos, what does that really spell, that spells opportunity, opportunity to drink vodka and behave like wild dog in junk yard, taking advantage of small blips in the housing mkt, small declines in profits, small losses in currency valuation, decreased, yields, parabolic commodity explosions pushing oil to the roof. Are you people retarded, this is a great opportunity to put your cash yo use and use leverage of maybe 20,000 to 1, these are odds that you can maybe get in Monoco or Cayman, but, this is here, now, for real, in your faces, in your pockets and wallets, checkbooks and money mkts, this is the time to shove your pennies into the fire and burn your fingers, as if stealing a tube filled with uranium from Soviet Union; this is opportunity to place yourself upon the wheels of fate and go for a ride that may result in your ability to obtain larger home, with larger wife, bigger bottles of vodka and tresure everywhere. Do as I say, and live well and prosper!
I'd rather have 3-4% returns that negative 30% returns.
I'd rather be rich than stupid.
Maybe he just needs a new set of testicles.
LOL!
Maybe he needs a double set?
Elvis, you've got the strong funny going today.
I'd rather be a sparrow than a snail.
Speaking of 401Ks, the quarterly statement came last week
I think that's what set off my coworker and his diamond run. Part of the discussion was about FNM / FRE and the hit to retirement plans.
Wow. We're, like, seeing a true collapse in faith. I never thought it would actually happen. Nobody else around me seemed to be paying attention until the past few weeks.
Stock is down 11% AH.
US STOCKS-Futures fall
US STOCKS-Futures fall after Apple, American Express disappoint
| Markets
| US Markets
| Reuters
U.S. stock futures fell after Monday's closing bell, indicating Wall Street may open lower on Tuesday, after iPod maker Apple Inc (AAPL.O: Quote, Profile, Research), credit card company American Express (AXP.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and memory chip maker Sandisk (SNDK.O: Quote, Profile, Research) reported results that disappointed investors.
S&P 500 futures SPc1 fell 10.6 points and were below fair value, a mathematical formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract.
Oh the humanity!
Any news on the Wachovia 1 pm news conference?
"Wow. We're, like, seeing a true collapse in faith." Jim Cramer
Miley Cyrus, like, is that you?
ITS OFFICIAL:
Wachovia Corp (NYSE:WB - News), the fourth-largest U.S. bank, on Monday said its main mortgage unit will stop offering home loans through brokers this week, joining a growing number of lenders to curb wholesale lending
Expired
ew from OFHEO: MORTGAGE MARKETS AND THE ENTERPRISES IN 2007
http://www.ofheo.gov/media/research/MME2007.pdf
News from Cape Cod- Tourism is booming. Scuttlebutt is the European vacations are out and local Cape Cod vacations are in. Eateries doing great and lobster shacks are actually selling out of lobsters half way through the day. I have never seen it like this.
I presume that at the right time, given the precedent of no naked short selling, the attempted rooting out of 'predatory' short selling, and the suing of analysts who make negative comments about banks, that we'll get some 'guidance' from the SEC to limit downward guidance from companies to Easter and Christmas weekends.
Otherwise, the poor PPT folks have to guard against untoward movements in futures every afternoon and evening.
We'll see if WAMU and YAHOO can't be spun in some way to keep this bear rally going.
State must double spending on roads
lansingstatejournal.com | Lansing | Lansing State Journal
The report issued Monday estimates $6.1 billion a year is required for basic improvements to Michigan's roads and bridges. That's about twice current spending and a significantly bigger increase than previously suggested by business groups and some lawmakers.
OT there, so sorry for interuption, many bows, sorry, sorry..
What time does the no short list come out for tech companies?
I think the US should collectively consider a lower standard of road repair. Too much money is spent on roads. Prisoners should be on chain gangs again and fix roads. Dirt roads for outlying areas. Road repair surcharges on vehicles over 6000lbs. Except, my road should remain well maintained.
Bacon, Look at the first 9 chapters under Housing and Mortgage Market Developments. Very bleak
House Prices Weaken Significantly
Alternative Measures Evidence Varying Rates of House Price Deceleration
Loan Delinquencies and Foreclosure Activity Rise
Home Sales Continue to Decline; Inventories Rise Further
Turmoil in the Secondary Market Erupts in July
Private-Label MBS Issuance Declines Sharply in Second Half
Federal Home Loan Bank Advances Rise Dramatically in the Third Quarter
Interest Rates Respond to Market Conditions and Federal Reserve System Actions
Economy Growth Slows
Mortgage Originations Fall
I dunno AC, after all they manufacture them one ounce glod coins in a factory, and the prices seem to be steadily rising for new and used.
But then, something else to worry about is the panic into stuff.
After all, I just got an email that the hiking food I ordered is on backorder due to excessive demand by the survivalist crowd.
Of course after ten to twelve miles of strenous hiking boiled food in a bag actually tastes good.
Someday this war's gonna end...
"Of course after ten to twelve miles of strenous hiking boiled food in a bag actually tastes good."
Not as good as regular food. The problem with backpacking is that beer is heavy. My backpack always weighs so damn much. But, I find, if I can drink a beer every mile, the pack weight gets manageable.
Elvis writes:
Prisoners should be on chain gangs again and fix roads.
Wouldn't that mean more layoffs?
Elvis,
I once brought some very nice brandy (Cardinal Mendoza) to the bottom of the Grand Canyon. After we drank that painkiller, the night's sleep was very deep indeed. The pack was much lighter for the ascent.
But hey, hiking food is survival food. But you only eat if you need to survive.
First I have another 30 pounds of spare tire to remove.
Middle age sucks, you try to get back into shape and it no longer is as easy as it was at 26. Booo hoo.
Bad news is getting to be nonstop.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Chenault's directness is refreshing.
I wonder why he does it.
Marc Faber in Bloomberg:
Faber Says Oil May Decline as Global Growth Weakens (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
Integrity?
Every time my parabola detectors go off (like they are tonight in tech, gold and the U$D) there is a late announcement that Ben will be speaking at 10am for 3 or 4 hours in a previously unheard of but nevertheless regularly-scheduled fortnightly address to Congress.
Some day I expect to see him run over by Mr Market down 500 points on it's way to a Rule80B halt. Get ready to reflate that Whirly.
My confession for today is taking a 7% profit in one-session on TSO. Granted all of the refiners were up large today, however the "world is ending pile into hard-stuff" trade may not be off yet noting a repeat of Rita may be 48 hours away never mind that Iran is a storm brewing as well. Wonder if Blankfein was at the table Saturday noting G.S.'s call for $ 200 a barrel.
Will wait 60-90 days for a re-entry.
"The environment has weakened significantly since then"
Going to hear a lot of that and with the assholes in DC that are in charge of this country one can reasonably expect that everything they do trying to stop it will make it that much worse.
"So what can they really do?
Are they going to take money from ailing taxpayers to help the same taxpayers? How does that make things better?
Or are the simply going to continue to wreck the US balance sheet and the dollar driving up costs and interest rates?
How does that help?
What store of wealth and aid does the congress have here to tap?
What can they really do materially to help, or is this all just more "smoke and mirrors" to make it look like they're doing something beneficial when they're really not?
Maybe Bernanke knows this and this is why he refuses to make suggestions."
ac | 07.21.08 - 4:59 pm | #
AC what about the Gold in Fort Knox, sort of like releasing crude from the SPR at $ 130+ a brrl.?
Consumer spending slowed during the latter part of the quarter and credit indicators deteriorated beyond our expectations.
My state (SC) just released its June revenue reports. Sales tax revenue down 14% YoY. This gonna be ugly.
Wonder how much of Amex's issue is places refusing to take it? I know that of the stores I shop at, two have dropped Amex in the last couple of months. Apparently they charge more than either Visa or MC, and retailers are squeezed enough that they'd rather keep the extra 2%.
what is considered AmEx "super-prime"? TIA.
I think Amex's problems run quite a bit deeper than most realize. They have a substantial amount of credit risk. When I posted my initial analysis of them a couple of weeks ago, naming them as one of my best shorts (everyone thought they were untouchable, much like Goldman Sachs who is also significantly overvalued, more on that later) many people hemmed and hawed. A close look at their numbers show that they are a ticking time bomb.
I know many call me an uber bear, but I am not. I am just a realist, apparently unlike the 16 analysts polled by Thomson Reuters (see below):
" American Express said second-quarter net income came in at $653 million, or 56 cents a share, vs. $1.06 billion, or 88 cents a share, the same period a year earlier.
The latest results include $600 million that the company added to reserves to cover bad loans in the U.S., the company said. There was also one other $136 million charge and a tax benefit of $101 million.
American Express was expected to make 83 cents a share, according to the average estimate of 16 analysts in a Thomson Reuters survey."
Even the company itself appeared to fail to face reality, at least as it appears from their official stance:
"The second quarter results included a $600 million ($374 million after-tax) addition to U.S. lending credit reserves that reflects a deterioration of credit indicators beyond our prior expectation, and a $136 million ($85 million after-tax) charge to the fair market value of the Companys retained interest in securitized Cardmember loans."
For those that are interested, I announced Amex's problems a few weeks ago here: Reggie Middleton says... | Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog
Reggie Middleton on Consumer Finance Shorts | Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog
Now, why is it that I was able to see this with a simple scan and a skeleton staff (a very smart and capable staff, but skeleton nonetheless) but all of those heavily funded research desks (okay, maybe not anymore, but still funded better than my operation) and the company itself (who failed to pare back in time) could not see it coming?
That long run-on is actually the basis for my investment thesis. The financial companies are quite overvalued (as an entire sector) and still have much, much farther to fall. They will be the catalysts for a global compression in the industrial, retail and manufacturing sectors - and China and Europe will probably beat the US to the bottom of the heap.
Again, I am not a bear, I am a realist with a spreadsheet!
I will post a detailed analysis an description on the overvaluation of Goldman some time tonight and will follow up with the same on Amex and probably HSBC.
reggie rooaarrrr
postin here at cr,
nice stuff!
Prisoners should be on chain gangs again and fix roads.
No chain gangs, but the county prisoners do road repairs around here. They fixed the road in front of my place a few months back. Even got a boss hogg type to keep em in line.
"Again, I am not a bear, I am a realist with a spreadsheet!"
What the powers that be fear most.
lunatic fringe writes:
Apple beats but guides lower for next quarter.
Apple usually does this.
Jack
super-prime "FICO scores above 750"
search AXP+super+prime
I just remember the Circus TV acting like VISA was the second coming ... = AKa the next Great Short ,,, Blackstone was the first coming and the top of the market and look @ that track record
reminds about NY Times article on flight of poor us, consumers. This poor lady (average joe, is she? ) is paying 20+K interest a year. Ironically enough, decent portion of those were due on her local "bling-bling" store account.
ah, that evil corporate america...