How can we possibly square results like these with the idea that Countrywide was accretive to earnings for BAC? Remember the recent research demonstrating people in the current situation were more likely to default on their mortgages than they were to default on their credit cards? Even JPM discussed deterioration in its prime portfolio.
This continues to feel like a carefully orchestrated event designed to increase confidence in the entities that are truly critical to healthy functioning of the system.
The real question is can the can be kicked down the road until after the election. The FED by printing dollars and the Treasury by doing everything they can to keep the party going a little longer is kicking the can down the road.
The day Obama takes office the Faux News, and the other assorted cheer leaders will be proclaiming an Obama recession. Write it down.
George Bush says all is well, and that is echoed by his lapdog McCain, whose wife is said to have been preserved in oil for nigh on a century at the least and it is also noted that some feel she may be a vampire.
"McCain, whose wife is said to have been preserved in oil for nigh on a century at the least and it is also noted that some feel she may be a vampire."
InSane would be a vampire now if that was true. She's just a zombie. Sheesh!
we now expect that our lending write-off rate in the third and fourth quarter will be higher than June levels.
Will this person give back the bonus they received from years back. This was a waste of an education. I can hardly wait until Friday.
jo6pac
The race to the bottom continues.
These are just mild tropical storms with light and fluffy clouds, they help ease the burden for those on the beaches, many of whom may intend to get nice even tans. I think this is a non-event, but perhaps the realtime event nature of infotainment allows one to track this storm as well as anyone with a few billion to burn.
crispy&cole writes:
Breaking - Per the Weather Channel Shell is pulling hundreds of employess off rigs in the gulf...$140bbl here we come
crispy&cole | Homepage | 07.21.08 - 9:51 pm | #
Looks like a nuthinburger - it will have trouble making Cat 1 before landfall.
Our skill in making intensity forecasts is poor, but it currently appears that Dolly only has enough time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane. A Category 2 hurricane now looks unlikely, and I put the chances of Dolly reaching major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher) at 2%.
This guy was screaming bloody murder when Katrina cut over Florida & headed into the Gulf - he was saying NOLA residents should get out then... days before it hit the city.
Dolly will cause damage in land due to flooding - might disrupt some of the factories I support in eastern Maq Zone. Doubt it does anything to oil though the crazies in the pit don't seem to need much to go even crazier.
crispy&cole writes:
I was just watching the weather channel and they said could be Cat2.
Every increase in category means gazillions more in ad revenue for WC... its as bad as watching CNBC - they just don't have as much cleavage yet (workin' on it I bet).
Just thinking about that "June Swoon".
Income tax refunds and rebate checks
used up, Helocs withdrawn. If its this bad for AMEX what must it be like for Capital One and their subprime credit cards.
"This continues to feel like a carefully orchestrated event designed to increase confidence in the entities that are truly critical to healthy functioning of the system."
You must be referring to those 19 insolvent bastards.
crispy&cole, OT: Dolly is getting better organized tonight, but I don't see much of a threat (weather is a sort of a hobby of mine). She has very little time to intensify ... If we see $140 oil, I doubt it will be because of Dolly.
U.S. Card Services billing only increased 2% year-over-year in June - less than inflation.
Costco has 2% back on AmeEx card purchases and 3% on gas. With the price of gas and down market purchase shifts to Costco I'd be willing to bet that 2% is negative with that one customer backed out. 3% back at $2 was $1.20 per fill up but at $4.40 it is $2.66 and thus sufficient to change buying behavior.
If Dolly delivers $140 oil, it won't last long. Iran has two weeks until Tropical Storm Condi combines with Tropical Depression Dick and heads for Tehran. That should goose it just a little.
Japanese shares ended the morning session higher on Tuesday amid easing credit worries but most investors took a cautious stance after the Tokyo bourse suspended futures and options trading due to a computer glitch.
The halt comes after the TSE, the world's second largest stock bourse, was forced to stop trade in TOPIX futures earlier in the year in the latest trouble it has had with computer systems.
The TSE has been upgrading its systems and regain the trust of investors after suffering a series of mishaps in the past few years, including three months of limited trading hours after a stock sell-off in 2006 swamped its systems.
"We are currently advising all clients to hold orders," Bob Carbonell, chief credit officer for Bernard Sands, a credit-checking firm, said Friday.
A Mervyns spokesman declined to comment.
Credit sources said the factoring arm of GMAC Commercial Finance has stopped approving orders of goods to the chain, which has 177 stores in seven Western states. An executive at GMAC declined comment. Page Not Found WWD.com
I really don't think I have to tell anyone this, but the only winners in this disaster scenario will be the big banks and corporations. Fascism and the expanded debtor classes here we come....
but the only winners in this disaster scenario will be the big banks and corporations. Fascism and the expanded debtor classes here we come
yup, I'm trying to figure out what to do with my ITM Jan-10 BAC calls. Sell now makes sense I guess, but I kinda like being part of the ruling class, yaknow?
OT
Being an ignorant lurker, I had to ask Google for the definition of SKF. (It keeps popping up in these comments.)
I rather like some of what Google offered for SKF:
smarter kids foundation
Sozialdienst Katholischer Frauen
sheep kidney fat
Seychelles Karate Federation
Slaski Klub Fantastyki
Samoan Kidney Foundation
Sell the Kids for Food
What is so interesting about the financial reports is the strength across each of the major's fixe dincome businesses. This strength comes across all the majors, which is a bit beffduling considering that issuance is down dramatically Y|Y. I;d be interested if anyone else thought it suspect when looking thorugh the results for C, JPM and BAC that each was able to deliver such results despite the declining volumes. It is impossible to know what is going on here, but the consistency raises questions
Crash talk on this blog is boring...lemme try Mish. Roubini got heated today cause the talk got 'off-topic' onto the War coming to Iran...we don't really pay for anything as taxpayers now cause the national debt is beyond being paid off. The taxpayers will pay for housing in the future...or maybe NOT!
It'll be 200+ DOWN or flat. Lots of activity before the open, and lots of itchy trigger (mouse button) fingers on the 30% move in XLF over the past several days...
The liquid asphalt makes up about half the cost, which has gone from $300 to $600 a ton in the last year, he said.
Its putting a big dent in the plans of municipalities, he said.
When they plan their project and actually get it to bid makes a huge difference, how many dollars youre going to spend, he said. Deciding when to contract, he said, is like deciding when to fill a gas tank; the price can be variable.
Refineries arent generating as much of the liquid used for asphalt mix because they are focusing on more profitable products, such as diesel fuel, is not entirely true.
Yes, refineries are making more profitable products, but asphalt is in short supply not because the refiners are greedy, but because Congress during the Clinton administration passed legislation mandating Ultra Low Sulfur Fuels (ULSF) for gasoline and diesel.
The process used to manufacture ULSF is commonly known as a coker.
Convergence is essential to hedging; the main economic reason that futures markets exist.
But critics say there is growing evidence that CBOT market prices have disconnected from supply-demand fundamentals, wreaking havoc with grain company and farmer finances, hedges and loans.
The critics say one of the factors for the changes has been the 'hot' money flooding into the CBOT from large funds, inflating grain prices beyond real cash demand.
OTS
Director John Reich Cites Keys to Restoring Consumer Confidence in a speech to the American Bankers Association (Good Luck With That) The page cannot be found
Re: does George W. Bush have a huge stick up his ass?
I wanted to go back to the allegation that his wife had been preserved in oil and the suggestion that she has been and remains a vampire.
This all got started when I saw the ol' girl on the cover of Newsweek, where she looked as if she had just been pulled from an oil-filled time capsule. Be that as it is, I think that if your gonna dress up the wannabe first lady as a hooker that represent America, then you may want to NOT suggest that some dumbass retarded 68 year old women looks as if she is a cross between a prom queen and an old hooker, i.e, if this is to be the first lady, how about some class and reality and act like a dignified senior, versus a porno quee!
I dont want no stinkin traders between the producer and the consumer. We've had a nice long stretch of 350/oz without a bunch of suits passing it between themselves for a while and driving it to a G.
Relax, that's why we have futures and derivatives, they just want the theoretical transfer -- that was what Enron was all about; remember -- they wanted to sell everything and be 100% in cash to trade fantasy valuations, kinda like what's going on now...
I dont want no stinkin traders between the producer and the consumer.
"We make the rules - the news, war, peace, famine, upheaval, the cost of a paper clip... you're not naive enough to think we're living in a democracy are you? It's the free market."
Gordon Gekko
Credit card companies will still send 'access' or 'convenience' checks out in which you can tap your entire credit line. More credit card defaults are coming and credit lines will be pulled in just the same way as HELOCs were tapped and drained by some borrowers and then lenders sent letters out withdrawing, reducing, or freezing HELOC lines based on falling 'home value' appraisals...
Lived in zip code 92067 from 1980 to 2002. We would judge the depth of the recessions ('80, '82, '90, '95, '01) by the length of the line of spendy used cars for sale parked on the road to the beach. The phone prefix was the indicator that prime driver/owners were trying to lighten up.
Did you see how Jim Goldman came on at the end of Fast Money today trying to defend Apple in its comments about Steve Jobs' health being a private matter, after all of the traders on the show said they feel it's a public matter.
What a little pipsqueak that guy is. He sounded like a pathetic little kid crying to his mother. Either Jobs must have Goldman on the payroll, or Goldman has a good chunk of his personal portfolio in Apple stock.
I can't wait to see what this moron has to say tomorrow to try to defend Apple. This guy's either gonna have a heart attack or be out of a job soon with all of the pain that's coming for Silicon Valley.
Every time my parabolic move detectors go off (like they are tonight in tech, gold and the U$D) seems there is a late announcement that Ben will be speaking at 10am for 3 or 4 hours in a previously unheard of but nevertheless regularly-scheduled fortnightly address to Congress.
Some day I hope to see him try it and be run over by Mr Market down 500 points on it's way to a Rule80B halt. I remember GrimSpin lowering rates during market hours one day with the DJIA down 500, so if Whirly tries it it won't be a first.
MarketWatch
11 reasons America's a new socialist economy
How free market ideology backfired, sabotaging capitalistic democracy
"Welcome to the conservative's worse nightmare: The law of unintended consequences. Why? Nobody wants to admit it, folks, but the conservatives' grand ideology is backfiring, actually turning the world's greatest capitalistic democracy into the world's newest socialist economy." 11 reasons America's a new socialist economy -
How free market ideology backfired, sabotaging capitalistic democracy
mock turtle, rest assured, the Helm family is here legally. It's a matter of citizen vs. permanent legal resident.
In fact, even the savings of illegals is covered by the FDIC. Which I have no problem with, since they pay taxes to help backstop the FDIC. Errmmm. Oh never mind.
"Capitulation to reality at Marketwatch? Did the conservatives' overreach lead us into socialism?
PAUL B. FARRELL"
Interesting article. Guy never heard of games theory. When you cut back on rules and enforcement in an environment, the buccaneers and looters will rise to the top, and everyone else will emulate them just to survive. System falls apart. It's more or less the Prisoner's Dilemma.
Farrell blames the failure of deregulation on corrupt individuals. But when an unregulated system hands the greatest rewards to corrupt behavior, corruption will rule the system. The Friedman / Reagan vision was a fantasy of enlightened plutocrats reigning without restraint to the ultimate benefit of all. Yeah, right.
Sales in Japanese supermarkets that have been in operation for at least a year fell 0.9 percent to 1.08 trillion yen ($10.1 billion) in June, the third straight monthly fall, due to weak spending on household items and clothing, the Japan Chain Stores Association said Tuesday.
The decline in June followed a 1.1 percent fall in May.
Supermarket store sales had been falling for 25 straight months until January this year, before recovering in February and March.
She went on to explain how glycolic acid, a derivative of sugar cane, has the smallest molecular size of all the alpha hydroxy acids. Its size enables it to most effectively rejuvenate the skin through deep penetration.
Free acid concentration is the most important factor. The higher the free acid concentration, the greater the improvement in your skins texture, color and tone. Without the appropriate labeling it is impossible for you to know if a product is of high quality or if it will provide maximum benefits to your skin.
An environmental benefit to using glycolic peels for exfoliation is the formula does not contain those little plastic beads found in so many other products. An article in the scientific journal Orion (May/June, 2007) alerted Lauren to the fact that the polyethylene (plastic) beads wash right down the drain and go on to harm marine life. The tiny particles of polyethylene that scrub the dirt from your face wash straight down the drain and into watersheds and, eventually, oceans.
July 16 (Reuters) - U.S. cash gasoline differentials were flat to slightly firmer as futures fell for a second day
Gasoline demand over the past four weeks fell by 2.1 percent from last year, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.
"Cargoes are landing with values at 5 cents under the screen and bids at 8 or 9 cents under," said one gasoline trader about imports of Eurograde which were seen diverted to Asia and the Middle East.
Values of RBOB cargoes are seen slightly higher than Eurograde but blending values are negative, traders said.
"The arb doesn't work either by a few pennies," said one RBOB blender, who said that U.S. production was ample.
In refinery news, trade sources said that several U.S. gasoline-making FCC units and reformers were seen down for work, which was also seen supportive for gasoline differentials.
Citgo was working on the FCC unit at its Corpus Christi, Tx refinery for about a week, trade sources.
asoline differentials are expected to show a modicum of seasonal strength as cargoes wane and refinery snags siphon barrels from bloated supplies in oil markets east of the Rockies, dealers said on Monday.
"It seems like the sellers have pulled back. There is not much resupply coming from Europe," said one gasoline trader with a major house about cargoes of Eurograde which are blended to make conventional gasoline. US Products Outlook-Gasoline gains on pinched arb
| Reuters
Dollar will fall, inflation will continue, yields will slide further, stocks will remain calm and overvalued while PPT places fingers into tech dikes, or is that dykes, and of course, asphalt will kick your ass, alomg with corn, wheat, pineapples and blueberries.
Gasoline inventories in the Midwest's Group Three dipped last week, which may continue to support values.
"Days of supply coverage (in Group Three) has dropped to just 18.5 days, the lowest level since mid-November," said one Midwest broker
he NYMEX August crude, RBOB gasoline and heating oil contracts finished the day in positive territory with Hurricane Dolly the main focus of many market participants. Tropical Storm Dolly has moved into the Gulf of Mexico and currently is projected to make landfall somewhere along the Mexican, Texas border on Wednesday, possibly as a hurricane.
Wow, mp mentions Barry Seal. There are some deep dark secrets from the eighties/early nineties that continue to haunt us. Not that everything was golden before that.
"If we had met five years ago, you wouldn't have found a more staunch defender of the newspaper industry than me ... I was winning awards, getting raises, lecturing college classes, appearing on TV shows, and judging journalism contests. So how could I possibly agree with people like Noam Chomsky and Ben Bagdikian, who were claiming the system didn't work, that it was steered by powerful special interests and corporations, and existed to protect the power elite? And then I wrote some stories that made me realize how sadly misplaced my bliss had been. The reason I'd enjoyed such smooth sailing for so long hadn't been, as I'd assumed, because I was careful and diligent and good at my job ... The truth was that, in all those years, I hadn't written anything important enough to suppress... \t
Welfare Reform
Most Favored Nation status w/ China
Big Oil Mergers
Repeal of Glass-Steagal
Telecommunications (Deregulation) Act of 1996
FDA "Modernization" which allowed Direct-to-Consumer Advertisement, among others.
Tranches.. Mock... in the Pacific Northwest? I'm in Portland ... we had a get together of the Portland Housing blog about three weeks ago. You should come next time.
often thought about what it would be like if many of the CR ers showed up with just their handles pinned to their lapels..no real id and just had a drink and talked housing and econ and stuff.
"dignified senior, versus a porno queen!"
She's as dignified as a Kennedy. Not surprising since the source of their wealth is the same: daddy's illegal booze trade.
I'm not knocking the legal booze trade, but there is no indication that this daddy's monopoly was acquired anymore legally than Joe's was. It's as noble a trade as crack jobber.
A published report Monday took an in-depth look at the case, in which the FDIC took over Illinois-based Superior Bank FSB back in 2001, and then operated the bank for months as it searched for a buyer. During that time, the FDIC-controlled bank funded more than 6,700 subprime loans worth $550 million, according to the Wall Street Journal. (
BD writes, "Farrell blames the failure of deregulation on corrupt individuals. But when an unregulated system hands the greatest rewards to corrupt behavior, corruption will rule the system."
This really is the crux of the problem. Too many good men playing by the rules and waiting for their reward in heaven, while the heathens run wild. Too many milk toasts confusing legal with moral. Morally it's been open season on the likes of OJ and Mozillo for years and not a single man who doesn't tolerate them.
"The SEC is trying to send a message -- I am again not quite sure what the message is," ... "I am just not sure that this was an issue at all for the equity prices of these companies"
"Such action would severely burden short selling activity, which the SEC itself repeatedly has acknowledged plays a vital role in the stability of securities markets," said James Chanos, a well known short seller, who chairs the coalition.
"One of the better things these companies could do is go bankrupt," said Chanos, whose mostly bearish hedge fund bet against Enron Corp. in 2001 prior to its bankruptcy.
Chanos pointed out that he has seen "a lot more stocks go to zero" than infinity.
Partners at proprietary-trading firm Bright Trading LLC, based in Chicago, spent extra time on the phone with their clearing broker, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., trying to obtain a total of 30,000 shares to borrow in four of the stocks for which the SEC is trying to crack down on improper short selling: Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
"All our traders thought it was worth it," said Bob Bright, a Bright Trading partner. A Goldman spokesman said the firm hasn't decided whether to charge an extra fee for the new requirements on borrowing shares.
As of next June, all U.S. citizens will have to present a passport or security-enhanced card, much like an electronic toll tag, to cross or risk being waved out of line for a rigorous security check.
More than half the 21 million cars crossing from Tijuana each year wait 90 minutes or more, with a fourth stuck for more than two hours, according to survey data collected before the January rule change and published this month by Tijuana's College of the Northern Frontier.
Credit card companies better start sharply reducing limits or cutting people off entirely because a lot of people are just starting to say fuck it and won't be paying back a cent.
"As of next June, all U.S. citizens will have to present a passport or security-enhanced card, much like an electronic toll tag, to cross or risk being waved out of line for a rigorous security check."
So no spring break fun for California college kids. Hey, that sounds trade-able ... go short penicillin!
The value of $217 billion of the so-called non-agency securities is falling as other financial firms write down their holdings, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight said in its annual mortgage market report. Privately issued securities backed by subprime mortgages made up 9.2 percent of the companies' combined portfolio, while Alt-A represented about 5.8 percent, Ofheo said.
In fact, even the savings of illegals is covered by the FDIC. Which I have no problem with, since they pay taxes to help backstop the FDIC. Errmmm. Oh never mind.
Actually, it does make sense, because the purpose of the FDIC is not to protect depositors... It is to protect the banking system by maintaining confidence.
Hordes of illegals swarming the banks would do a lot to undermine that purpose, I suspect.
During the second and third quarters of 2008, the Company completed three transactions to optimize the regulatory capital contribution of its long-term holdings of Coke common stock:
-- In June, the Company sold 10 million shares of Coke stock, which strengthened its estimated Tier 1 capital position by 20 basis points.
-- The Company received Federal Reserve approval, and in July completed a Tier 1 transaction involving 30 million shares of Coke stock generating 44 basis points in proforma June 30, 2008 additional Tier 1 capital.
-- Lastly, in July the Company contributed 3.6 million shares of Coke common stock to its charitable foundation which will reduce ongoing charitable contribution expense and increase Tier 1 capital by 4 basis points.
As a result of the Coke stock transactions completed in July, the Company's estimated Tier 1 capital position of 7.47% as of June 30, 2008 would have increased to an estimated 7.95% at June 30, 2008 on a proforma basis.
So a move that raises Tier I ratios by 68bp turns out to be a 48bp improvement?
Loss provisions up, default rates up and they haven't even gotten into CRE yet. Q3 reporting is gonna be a humdinger.
Weather Helm - illegals do pay taxes to support the FDIC fund - you all do. Because the banks pay FDIC based on deposits, and the rates and fees banks charge for accounts are a bit elevated to cover the payments to the fund. Non-citizens have just as good a claim on everyone else on FDIC deposit insurance.
Well, what rabbit can Paulson/Cox/Bernanke pull out of the hat today? Easy to add Wachovia and a few others to the endangered-by-short-seller-list. Investigations of bearers of bad news are boring, how about a few indictments for wire fraud or something? And there must be some unpopular country that would like to improve its reputation by sticking some depreciating dollars into a sovereign wealth bailout entity.
If they put their minds to it, I'm sure we can have another Dow +200.
Paulson just added "hedge funds" among the groups that will need to be part of the new "bankruptcy process" (in other words, they'll need to be added to the too big to fail list and need treasury/fed backstop)
He's adding hedge funds!
This has got to be the biggest joke going.
Are Americans really that dumb, that the Taxpayer is going to support this??? If congress/senate approves then I guess the answer is a big YES!
Paulson just added "hedge funds" among the groups that will need to be part of the new "bankruptcy process" (in other words, they'll need to be added to the too big to fail list and need treasury/fed backstop)
I make a point of not posting while I am at work but this is outrageous. Hedge funds! He should be arrested for even proposing this!
Paulson is stuttering badly. And i suspect he may have already crapped himself. Do I see fear in those eyes? Perhaps that is why he's repeating over and over that the banking system is "sound". Now if he could only learn that Jedi mind trick where you wave your hand.
Stupid question here: "Why would the CC companies care about oil prices?" Tchochkies from the Chicoms or oil from the Emirs so long as you're putting it on plastic, what does it matter to them?
Wunderground is fine, but I like to see winds above 15k to 30k to really get an idea of where they'll go. Usually you have to go to aviation sites, but now the NOAA has this for 15,000 ft
U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said on Tuesday financial markets will remain under stress until the U.S. housing market's slide ends and called the health of mortgage finance enterprises vital to the recovery of the U.S. economy.
Translation: Housing is still falling like a rock, the GSE's are insolvent, but we will do everything including letting them cook the books and slip the loses to the taxpayers to turn this around. Back to you Hank.
Pray tell: Just what is the new "bankruptcy process"?
(1) Institution finds itself unable to raise capital and/or under attack by those nasty, nasty shorts, runs to Washington, and offers to kiss Ben Bernanke's ring.
(2) Fed offers freshly minted Treasuries to institution in exchange for some manner of "dark-matter" debt with no calculable value.
(3) "Dark-matter" debt is eventually "marked to market", at a price much lower than the value of Treasuries offered in exchange, possibly zero. Taxpayer picks up the tab.
(4) Institution heads shrug, mumble "Hoocoodanode?", and head out to pick up another Gulfstream.
(5) Rinse and repeat.
"Looking forward, we must balance two very important priorities -- better regulation through a more effective updated regulatory structure on the one hand and market discipline to limit moral hazard on the other," Paulson said in remarks made available in Washington.
"Market discipline plays an enormous role in curtailing excessive risk-taking, a role that neither can nor should be completely executed by regulators."
Translation: We had a ton of regulations such as the one for naked short selling has been in place for years and applies to all stocks but my buddies on Wall Street were making to damn much money and the regulators were paid off to look the other way. I'm sure if they write that over again we'll get it right. Back to you Hank
Good chance of that, I think. Enough sentiment in favor of at least a short term rally. Cramer was yammering on last night about how we might test the recent lows but won't go lower.
is Paulson used to dividing all of the important numbers by 10? Subprime losses might be $1,000B/10 = $100B. Cost of GSE bailout to taxpayers $500B/10 = $50B
"If you had to do it over again, knowing what you know now, would you support the surge:"
"No, because keep in mind that question, you wouldn't ... but keep in mind that kind of hypothetical is very difficult to know hindsight is 20-20 ... later ... but I think that what I'm absolutely convinced of is that at that time we had to change the political debate because the view of the Bush administration at that time was one that I just disagreed with."
Wow! Now that's just amazing! What off-the-cuff eloquence! This guy is really sharp. Now we all know why Barack "our saviour" Obama would still vote against the surge ... the troop surge that worked.
What is working in Iraq is Petraeus's counter-insurgency tactics. He's had to refashion every aspect of military operations in the region, something not accomplished easily or quickly.
Credit the surge if you like. It's certainly much simpler and more easily understood.
The surge was never about "just numbers" as their authors stated back in 2006. It is ignorance to think it was about simply an increase and not a change in tactics. Our savior should have known it then, if not he should know it now.,
"Proponents of one prominent surge plan agree. Drawn up under the auspices of the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), the plan would put four additional Army brigades into Baghdad and two additional Marine regimental combat teams into Sunni-dominated Anbar Province, in an effort to curtail Iraqi violence.
"This is not just a debate about numbers. In the first instance, this is a debate about strategy," said one author of the plan, military historian Frederick Kagan, at a Dec. 14 AEI seminar outlining it. Mr. Kagan has also met with Mr. Bush about what might be achieved by bringing more US military might to Iraq.
It has never been the primary mission of the US military in Iraq to establish security to protect the population, argued Kagan. Since the toppling of Saddam Hussein, the military mission has been to train Iraqis and turn the problem over to them.
For the most part, US counterinsurgency efforts have focused on attacking adversaries. That should change, according to the AEI plan, to defense and economic support of Iraqi civilians.
"You do not focus on the enemy. You focus on the people," said another of the plan's co-authors, retired Army Gen. Jack Keane, at the AEI event.
The worst fighting is occurring in mixed Sunni-Shiite Baghdad neighborhoods, according to Kagan. That is where Sunni insurgents are struggling with Shiite militias in tit-for-tat sectarian warfare.
The AEI study identifies 23 such residential districts. With an additional 20,000 troops, the US military could surge into these neighborhoods, clear them of bad guys, and then leave units behind to keep them clear while moving on to the next target.
"You put a protect force in, that lives in the neighborhood.... They use empty houses. They use government buildings, schools that are not being used," said General Keane.
In Anbar, the extra marines would not be enough to allow the US to carry out this approach. Instead, they would focus on preventing insurgents flushed from Baghdad from using Anbar as a base.
This whole endeavor would be accompanied by a reconstruction effort that would provide Baghdad residents with better basic services, under the AEI plan. The extra troops would be generated by accelerating the deployment of units bound for Iraq, and by extending the tours of some units already there.
"This will not break the Army and the Marine Corps. I am not suggesting it is not hard," said Kagan.
Whether the US military would use extra troops in this manner is not publicly known. The AEI plan has reportedly been well-received by some White House officials.
But whether to surge isn't the real issue facing Bush, according to Mr. Cordesman of CSIS. It is whether he can counter the trend toward civil war in Iraq while implementing policies that promise longer-term success. "He cannot do this simply by sending more troops to Iraq, although that may be useful as part of a coherent strategy," said Cordesman in his commentary.
Such a strategy might include pressure on the Iraqi government to try harder on sectarian reconciliation, and fresh efforts to build the Iraqi army and police. Absent new political moves, a surge will seem like a pro-Shiite tilt by the US, argued Cordesman."
ot to mention, sometimes, simply, the thought of blowing one's self up, becomes entirely less appealing, when especially, martyrdom becomes so....common place.
I hesitate to walk into YOSP and burnside's debate, not the least because of extreeme off-topicness, but one difference is that somebdody decided to actually TRY and win, instead of staving off defeat another month and hoping that somehow victory would show up in the meantime.
third?
Nth?
More great news,
if you happen to be a rock looking forward to the second stone age.
That's gonna hoit.
Cheers,
Can Tanta please create a Super Prime character and add it to the Mortgage Pig series?
Higher than june levels, CSC, do you have a comment on the american consumer being higher than they were in June?
SKF will come back w/ vengeance
Where's that unemployment graph that CR put up a bit ago? I looked and looked but couldn't find it.
U.S. Card Services billing increased 2% year
wheeeeeww, thank goodness though , no recession.
such whiners!
<Fox News-programmed wingnut>
Bah! It's the liberal media talking down the economy again! This "recession" is just in everyone's heads!
If everyone would just shut up about it, there'd be no problem!
</Fox News-programmed wingnut>
"we now expect that our lending write-off rate in the third and fourth quarter will be higher than June levels."
Uhhh isn't Q4 when we could expect the Christmas savior Obama rally ?
Here I come to save the day!
Super Prime Card Members? Is that, like, Triple-A Card Members?
Mortgage Pig! Mortgage Pig!
Pink and happy in my head.
Mortgage Pig! Mortgage Pig!
The consumer is dead, dead dead!
Mortgage Pig! Mortgage Pig!
Credit was cash so they said.
Mortgage Pig! Mortgage Pig!
The consumer is dead, dead dead!
"SKF will come back w/ vengeance"
I played SKF today and closed it out protecting gains, thinking AXP or WB might pull a JPM. Maybe it won't be too late at the open.
How can we possibly square results like these with the idea that Countrywide was accretive to earnings for BAC? Remember the recent research demonstrating people in the current situation were more likely to default on their mortgages than they were to default on their credit cards? Even JPM discussed deterioration in its prime portfolio.
This continues to feel like a carefully orchestrated event designed to increase confidence in the entities that are truly critical to healthy functioning of the system.
The real question is can the can be kicked down the road until after the election. The FED by printing dollars and the Treasury by doing everything they can to keep the party going a little longer is kicking the can down the road.
The day Obama takes office the Faux News, and the other assorted cheer leaders will be proclaiming an Obama recession. Write it down.
The day Obama takes office the Faux News, and the other assorted cheer leaders will be proclaiming an Obama recession. Write it down.
They'll also pivot 180 on Iraq, declaring that we are losing the war and it's all Obama's fault because he's a big fat cut and run Defeatocrat.
I think this guy has wingnuts.
Now this is definitely inflationary.
Not!
Does this mean Amex Black Card members are hurting??
Breaking - Per the Weather Channel Shell is pulling hundreds of employess off rigs in the gulf...$140bbl here we come
George Bush says all is well, and that is echoed by his lapdog McCain, whose wife is said to have been preserved in oil for nigh on a century at the least and it is also noted that some feel she may be a vampire.
HedgeFundAnalyst writes:
Now this is definitely inflationary.
Not!
HedgeFundAnalyst | 07.21.08 - 9:41 pm | #
Only if gov't does nothing about it. Otherwise all the bad news just makes the bailouts easier to sell & the resultant inflation more likely.
No pain no gain...
OT: Really interesting policy roundtable on Fed and Treasury options.
The Institutional Risk Analyst: Fear and Leverage on Wall Street: A GSE Roundtable: Wallison, O'Driscoll and Rosner
You mean Amex is saying the US consumer economy that accounts for 70% of GDP is not sustainable and Households are Running on Empty?
What happened
Anonymous Bosch...Nth!!!
awesome
Rusty Daggers,
"McCain, whose wife is said to have been preserved in oil for nigh on a century at the least and it is also noted that some feel she may be a vampire."
InSane would be a vampire now if that was true. She's just a zombie. Sheesh!
Cheers,
we now expect that our lending write-off rate in the third and fourth quarter will be higher than June levels.
Will this person give back the bonus they received from years back. This was a waste of an education. I can hardly wait until Friday.
jo6pac
The race to the bottom continues.
Crispy dude,
These are just mild tropical storms with light and fluffy clouds, they help ease the burden for those on the beaches, many of whom may intend to get nice even tans. I think this is a non-event, but perhaps the realtime event nature of infotainment allows one to track this storm as well as anyone with a few billion to burn.
crispy&cole writes:
Breaking - Per the Weather Channel Shell is pulling hundreds of employess off rigs in the gulf...$140bbl here we come
crispy&cole | Homepage | 07.21.08 - 9:51 pm | #
Looks like a nuthinburger - it will have trouble making Cat 1 before landfall.
Dolly slowly organizing, having trouble with dry air
Money quote...
Our skill in making intensity forecasts is poor, but it currently appears that Dolly only has enough time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane. A Category 2 hurricane now looks unlikely, and I put the chances of Dolly reaching major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher) at 2%.
This guy was screaming bloody murder when Katrina cut over Florida & headed into the Gulf - he was saying NOLA residents should get out then... days before it hit the city.
Dolly will cause damage in land due to flooding - might disrupt some of the factories I support in eastern Maq Zone. Doubt it does anything to oil though the crazies in the pit don't seem to need much to go even crazier.
My greatest concern is nudist beaches in the region and the threat of isolation thin-clad pirates, who may be stranded.
C'mon, can we at least leave the wives out of it?
I was just watching the weather channel and they said could be Cat2.
I need to get a life - BTW!
NudistParksUSA.NET - Find Nudist Parks by Zip Code
Unable to locate zip code 77892 in the range of zip codes.
Problems Are Obvious To Everyone That Is Not Involved In Finance
Most of the CEO's of finance companies, mutual fund manager, hedge fund managers and analysts have been blinded by their involvement in the markets.
Every decision and analysis they make is biased because of it.
Hence, they're not able to see how overvalued most companies, especially financials, are.
Nor are they able to see how bad the economy is.
crispy&cole writes:
I was just watching the weather channel and they said could be Cat2.
Every increase in category means gazillions more in ad revenue for WC... its as bad as watching CNBC - they just don't have as much cleavage yet (workin' on it I bet).
Doggy Dog World,
No -- these women have a position and role to take o
Remind me again what investments I want for deflation. Should I get rid of my TIP fund?
"they just don't have as much cleavage yet"
GE purchased recently, I am sure they are doing interviews for new weather people right now
Forget sub-prime, prime, and even super-prime. The real question is . . . what's up with Optimus Prime?
My guess is that the price of gas is killing him.
"Nor are they able to see how bad the economy is"
Economy looks GREAT from the 19th hole or the 24th story corner office when lunch is catered in.
Just thinking about that "June Swoon".
Income tax refunds and rebate checks
used up, Helocs withdrawn. If its this bad for AMEX what must it be like for Capital One and their subprime credit cards.
"This continues to feel like a carefully orchestrated event designed to increase confidence in the entities that are truly critical to healthy functioning of the system."
You must be referring to those 19 insolvent bastards.
Most of the CEO's of finance companies, mutual fund manager, hedge fund managers and analysts have been blinded by their involvement in the markets.
snip
Nor are they able to see how bad the economy is.
Owner Earnings 10:05 pm
just a thought, how about, maybe, just maybe, some of them are not blind and can see it comming but dont know how to do anything else...
but ride the boat over the falls..
just a guess
crispy&cole, OT: Dolly is getting better organized tonight, but I don't see much of a threat (weather is a sort of a hobby of mine). She has very little time to intensify ... If we see $140 oil, I doubt it will be because of Dolly.
dryfly quoted Jeff Masters - he knows his stuff.
Best Wishes.
did ya ever notice how laughter is one letter different than slaughter.
Cheers,
dryfly quoted Jeff Masters - he knows his stuff.
Just to be clear - Jeff Master's knows his stuff... dryfly can almost manage spell checker & copy-n-paste...
I hope that damn herricane comes in around Brownsville. Once she spins counterclock and to the NE, we might get some rain where I hang out.
Dryfly said it bestest. Hi purb ole.
weather is a sort of a hobby of mine
CR you have a busy life
This is my weather guy, predicts weather by the moon. Very interesting, all about 18 year cycles..
https://www.predictweather.co.nz/#/home/
U.S. Card Services billing only increased 2% year-over-year in June - less than inflation.
Costco has 2% back on AmeEx card purchases and 3% on gas. With the price of gas and down market purchase shifts to Costco I'd be willing to bet that 2% is negative with that one customer backed out. 3% back at $2 was $1.20 per fill up but at $4.40 it is $2.66 and thus sufficient to change buying behavior.
Dolly is dad; RIP.
In her honor, here is a sexy lassie, or as you Yanks say, Fannie Mae Fudege Packer:
Hawker Hurricane - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
And you can't have manslaughter without laughter.
And with that, it's time for my eyelid inspection.
(Good Night All)
delete, delet, spellchecker pleze!
No hurricane named "Dolly" can be much of a threat.
I do think there's a lingering fear though -- we had two hellish hurricane seasons ('04 and '05), followed by two mild seasons... what will '08 bring?
Hopefully a mild one, as this would be a particularly bad time for hurricane disruptions.
Well the bank panic evaporated quickly. Will it come back again?
If Dolly delivers $140 oil, it won't last long. Iran has two weeks until Tropical Storm Condi combines with Tropical Depression Dick and heads for Tehran. That should goose it just a little.
An earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 6.1 jolted northern Japan on Monday at 1130 GMT (7:30 a.m. EDT), the Japan Meteorological Agency said.
New names for hurricanes:
FAQ : HURRICANES, TYPHOONS, AND TROPICAL CYCLONES
I always liked Hanna, what a fox!
Unfortunately I've been absorbing a lot of evil lately. I'll get back to you.
Cheers,
Japanese shares ended the morning session higher on Tuesday amid easing credit worries but most investors took a cautious stance after the Tokyo bourse suspended futures and options trading due to a computer glitch.
Neehow, hey?
Well the bank panic evaporated quickly. Will it come back again?
HAAAAAAAAAAAAAHhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
The halt comes after the TSE, the world's second largest stock bourse, was forced to stop trade in TOPIX futures earlier in the year in the latest trouble it has had with computer systems.
The TSE has been upgrading its systems and regain the trust of investors after suffering a series of mishaps in the past few years, including three months of limited trading hours after a stock sell-off in 2006 swamped its systems.
"Neehow, hey?"
wakarimasen.
Money quote from NOAA 7:00 pm advisory, updated in about five minutes time:
...DOLLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT JOGS WESTWARD...
"We are currently advising all clients to hold orders," Bob Carbonell, chief credit officer for Bernard Sands, a credit-checking firm, said Friday.
A Mervyns spokesman declined to comment.
Credit sources said the factoring arm of GMAC Commercial Finance has stopped approving orders of goods to the chain, which has 177 stores in seven Western states. An executive at GMAC declined comment.
Page Not Found WWD.com
I guess I should really pay my AMEX bill. These guys could use the cash.
If there is a Mindy, there should also be a Mork hurricane.
You woosie little girls. Always looking foreward to a catistrophe to bail you out...
Cat 2 herricane, 6.2 shaker in Nippon land. Where does it end? Dog poop was spied on Paulson's lawn.
Buy good stocks. When they go up, sell them. If they don't go up, don't buy them. Makes perfect sense to moi.
Coiled springs are like snakes. They will bite your ass and you never see them coming.
I really don't think I have to tell anyone this, but the only winners in this disaster scenario will be the big banks and corporations. Fascism and the expanded debtor classes here we come....
WaMu & WB in the AM. Will they compliment AXP and make it a trifecta?
WaMu is going to be a butter pill for the FDIC to swallow. WB is too big to fail, IMO.
Rode by Wamu today. They had a big banner outside, displaying a picture of a lawn chair & cool drink, with the tagline "Sit Bank and Relax" below it.
I couldn't help thinking they were preparing customers for some lines.
but the only winners in this disaster scenario will be the big banks and corporations. Fascism and the expanded debtor classes here we come
yup, I'm trying to figure out what to do with my ITM Jan-10 BAC calls. Sell now makes sense I guess, but I kinda like being part of the ruling class, yaknow?
"but the only winners in this disaster scenario will be the big banks and corporations. Fascism and the expanded debtor classes here we come...."
You forgot the underground economy who in thier right mind wants work thier ass off to have to pay for this mess? That'll be cash only please.
Is it just me, or does George W. Bush have a huge stick up his ass which needs to be promptly removed?
I know its off topic, but I thought I should immediately inform you all of my startling revelation.
Watch out char, they will get your ip, haul your ass off to gitmo and waterboard you, this is America after all.
sing along now:
I am, I am, I am super-prime...and I can do anything.
.
.
Well, we could all take our money out of mutual funds, 401(k), retirement plans, etc; and I suppose put them in low-overhead Vanguard accounts.
The financial industry is very incestious. I suppose as time goes on the genetic defects will be more and more apparent to more people.
Rob Dawg, I was just thinking the same thing. We get 2% back on gas, and we've made more of a point of putting it on the AmEx as gas has gone up.
So, assuming this is a general trend, this drop (after inflation) is worse than it looks.
OT
Being an ignorant lurker, I had to ask Google for the definition of SKF. (It keeps popping up in these comments.)
I rather like some of what Google offered for SKF:
smarter kids foundation
Sozialdienst Katholischer Frauen
sheep kidney fat
Seychelles Karate Federation
Slaski Klub Fantastyki
Samoan Kidney Foundation
Sell the Kids for Food
ice post
I'm pretty sure they're referring to the Samoan Kidney Foundation. That's what I always assumed anyway.
SKF double shot financials.
What is so interesting about the financial reports is the strength across each of the major's fixe dincome businesses. This strength comes across all the majors, which is a bit beffduling considering that issuance is down dramatically Y|Y. I;d be interested if anyone else thought it suspect when looking thorugh the results for C, JPM and BAC that each was able to deliver such results despite the declining volumes. It is impossible to know what is going on here, but the consistency raises questions
We're cannibals: we like to "nibble" on SKF.
Man moth and CSC, so it probably is sell the kids for food, then.
I guess they were running out of three-letter combinations, but how does ProShares UltraShort Financials get abbreviated as SKF?
Shorts beware - Paulson and Bernanke have a white tiger hiding behind a black curtain.
I knew I picked the wrong week to quit Thorazine.
Looks like we'll open about 100 dow
No asphalt report in awhile... were those coming from currently asphalting polaris cannibus? Or our dead-singer friend? Couldn't remember...
YLSP,
Dead singer?
Jes: There is another one called Financial UltraShort Crony Kickbacks. They're set to go through the roof.
Yankee: Can you link your previous post? Thanks.
Crash talk on this blog is boring...lemme try Mish. Roubini got heated today cause the talk got 'off-topic' onto the War coming to Iran...we don't really pay for anything as taxpayers now cause the national debt is beyond being paid off. The taxpayers will pay for housing in the future...or maybe NOT!
"Looks like we'll open about 100 down"
It'll be 200+ DOWN or flat. Lots of activity before the open, and lots of itchy trigger (mouse button) fingers on the 30% move in XLF over the past several days...
Ok, here:
Asphalt prices stretch paving budgets
newarkadvocate.com | Newark | The Newark Advocate
The liquid asphalt makes up about half the cost, which has gone from $300 to $600 a ton in the last year, he said.
Its putting a big dent in the plans of municipalities, he said.
When they plan their project and actually get it to bid makes a huge difference, how many dollars youre going to spend, he said. Deciding when to contract, he said, is like deciding when to fill a gas tank; the price can be variable.
What's driving the asphalt shortage
SPEAKOUT: What's driving the asphalt shortage : Speakout : The Rocky Mountain News
Refineries arent generating as much of the liquid used for asphalt mix because they are focusing on more profitable products, such as diesel fuel, is not entirely true.
Yes, refineries are making more profitable products, but asphalt is in short supply not because the refiners are greedy, but because Congress during the Clinton administration passed legislation mandating Ultra Low Sulfur Fuels (ULSF) for gasoline and diesel.
The process used to manufacture ULSF is commonly known as a coker.
Dead singer?
I don't think Elvis would bother with another screen name, he thinks he's funny,...and proud of it.
OT, hey folks dumb question: do you have to be a citizen to have proper FDIC insurance on your bank account?
Stock Futures on Bloomberg
Silly futures.
Now Moe,Doc, Kona, etc. on the other hand,...you can tell by the rapid fire pace of relevant and not so relevant comments.
"Buy good stocks. When they go up, sell them."
A MOMO trader, company can be cooking the books but what the hell the stocks going up.
Convergence is essential to hedging; the main economic reason that futures markets exist.
But critics say there is growing evidence that CBOT market prices have disconnected from supply-demand fundamentals, wreaking havoc with grain company and farmer finances, hedges and loans.
The critics say one of the factors for the changes has been the 'hot' money flooding into the CBOT from large funds, inflating grain prices beyond real cash demand.
CBOT told to improve service to farmers
They were cornholiod.
OTS
Director John Reich Cites Keys to Restoring Consumer Confidence in a speech to the American Bankers Association (Good Luck With That)
The page cannot be found
Another day, another night when equities do most of their moving while we sleep.
Gap on you crazy diamond.
Re: does George W. Bush have a huge stick up his ass?
I wanted to go back to the allegation that his wife had been preserved in oil and the suggestion that she has been and remains a vampire.
This all got started when I saw the ol' girl on the cover of Newsweek, where she looked as if she had just been pulled from an oil-filled time capsule. Be that as it is, I think that if your gonna dress up the wannabe first lady as a hooker that represent America, then you may want to NOT suggest that some dumbass retarded 68 year old women looks as if she is a cross between a prom queen and an old hooker, i.e, if this is to be the first lady, how about some class and reality and act like a dignified senior, versus a porno quee!
Yah, that feels good, yah!
Oh shit, wait a tic, that stick thing, that was Bush and then the rest is about McCain....... I'm sorry!
Weather Helm --
OT, hey folks dumb question: do you have to be a citizen to have proper FDIC insurance on your bank account?
No. See the FDIC FAQ, question 4.
Is there a cannibus ETF? I suppose POT would be a good symbol... wow, POT is expensive...
I dont want no stinkin traders between the producer and the consumer. We've had a nice long stretch of 350/oz without a bunch of suits passing it between themselves for a while and driving it to a G.
Nemo - thanks. I googled it but all the links were for FDIC-insured banks with "citizen" in the name.
Google should update its formerly published lists of most common search terms. I have a feeling FDIC is up there.
Currently,
Relax, that's why we have futures and derivatives, they just want the theoretical transfer -- that was what Enron was all about; remember -- they wanted to sell everything and be 100% in cash to trade fantasy valuations, kinda like what's going on now...
I dont want no stinkin traders between the producer and the consumer.
"We make the rules - the news, war, peace, famine, upheaval, the cost of a paper clip... you're not naive enough to think we're living in a democracy are you? It's the free market."
Gordon Gekko
Credit card companies will still send 'access' or 'convenience' checks out in which you can tap your entire credit line. More credit card defaults are coming and credit lines will be pulled in just the same way as HELOCs were tapped and drained by some borrowers and then lenders sent letters out withdrawing, reducing, or freezing HELOC lines based on falling 'home value' appraisals...
weather helm
nothing on the fdic web site indicates citizenship is an issue
however, just to be safe i wouldnt want to be here illegally...deportation could take place before you got your money
Nemo
outstanding
The Mafia, CIA and George Bush
by: Pete Brewton
"A reminder of Republican greed for the younger among us, or those with short memories..."
Fwd: Money-Laundering, Mafiosi and Bush et al: msg#00008 culture.discuss.cia-drugs
Nikkei caught in a time warp from last week. Don't they have bloomberg terminals to see the US futures DOWN ?
"is going to suck, all 12 months of the calendar year." Oh no, it's now 2008!
FFDIC- "The Mafia, CIA and George Bush"
FFDIC, I suppose you're aware that Dubya's favorite ride during his Texas governorship was once Barry Seal's jet.
Just another coincidence.
Don't worry, Yankee; the PPT will 'fix' things by the morning open, to keep the sheeple from gagging on their coffee with a nice opening break down.
Lived in zip code 92067 from 1980 to 2002. We would judge the depth of the recessions ('80, '82, '90, '95, '01) by the length of the line of spendy used cars for sale parked on the road to the beach. The phone prefix was the indicator that prime driver/owners were trying to lighten up.
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The global economy is at the point of maximum danger
The global economy is at the point of maximum danger - Telegraph
So in real terms, pot is much, much cheaper than 350/oz then?
Well, at least they still have Cindy McCain.
FFDIC
interesting article.
consistent with what "we" know about:
BCCI,
drug smuggling into USA by "dark" elements of our gov to finance weapons and operations in central america
well documented warnings to our gov about impending attack prior to 911
Kennedy assassinations...both
and the fixing of the 2000 election (secretary of state in florida dumps thousands of registered voters off the roles in primarily dem precincts
and the list goes on...scary stuff
i dont sleep well at night anymore in fear for my country.
Did you see how Jim Goldman came on at the end of Fast Money today trying to defend Apple in its comments about Steve Jobs' health being a private matter, after all of the traders on the show said they feel it's a public matter.
What a little pipsqueak that guy is. He sounded like a pathetic little kid crying to his mother. Either Jobs must have Goldman on the payroll, or Goldman has a good chunk of his personal portfolio in Apple stock.
I can't wait to see what this moron has to say tomorrow to try to defend Apple. This guy's either gonna have a heart attack or be out of a job soon with all of the pain that's coming for Silicon Valley.
Every time my parabolic move detectors go off (like they are tonight in tech, gold and the U$D) seems there is a late announcement that Ben will be speaking at 10am for 3 or 4 hours in a previously unheard of but nevertheless regularly-scheduled fortnightly address to Congress.
Some day I hope to see him try it and be run over by Mr Market down 500 points on it's way to a Rule80B halt. I remember GrimSpin lowering rates during market hours one day with the DJIA down 500, so if Whirly tries it it won't be a first.
"i dont sleep well at night anymore in fear for my country."
1 It's not your country and it hasn't been for about 50 years.
2 They just keep you around to do the housework.
Hey mock...you forgot about Halliburton's no-bid contracts during Clinton's time...oops Clinton's not repub, is he???
.
.
tool.
Capitulation to reality at Marketwatch? Did the conservatives' overreach lead us into socialism?
PAUL B. FARRELL
11 reasons America's a new socialist economy -
How free market ideology backfired, sabotaging capitalistic democracy
MarketWatch
11 reasons America's a new socialist economy
How free market ideology backfired, sabotaging capitalistic democracy
"Welcome to the conservative's worse nightmare: The law of unintended consequences. Why? Nobody wants to admit it, folks, but the conservatives' grand ideology is backfiring, actually turning the world's greatest capitalistic democracy into the world's newest socialist economy."
11 reasons America's a new socialist economy -
How free market ideology backfired, sabotaging capitalistic democracy
Check this out...
Countrywide Deals Exposed - News Markets - Portfolio.com
If this doesn't reek of indirect corruption at all levels....then I don't know what will...
Who will take all these people to task?....
I feel like this was all in Bogle's book that I just read this weekend (battle for soul of capitalism). Greedy pigs!
mock turtle, rest assured, the Helm family is here legally. It's a matter of citizen vs. permanent legal resident.
In fact, even the savings of illegals is covered by the FDIC. Which I have no problem with, since they pay taxes to help backstop the FDIC. Errmmm. Oh never mind.
"Capitulation to reality at Marketwatch? Did the conservatives' overreach lead us into socialism?
PAUL B. FARRELL"
Interesting article. Guy never heard of games theory. When you cut back on rules and enforcement in an environment, the buccaneers and looters will rise to the top, and everyone else will emulate them just to survive. System falls apart. It's more or less the Prisoner's Dilemma.
Farrell blames the failure of deregulation on corrupt individuals. But when an unregulated system hands the greatest rewards to corrupt behavior, corruption will rule the system. The Friedman / Reagan vision was a fantasy of enlightened plutocrats reigning without restraint to the ultimate benefit of all. Yeah, right.
Hmmm...
Sales in Japanese supermarkets that have been in operation for at least a year fell 0.9 percent to 1.08 trillion yen ($10.1 billion) in June, the third straight monthly fall, due to weak spending on household items and clothing, the Japan Chain Stores Association said Tuesday.
The decline in June followed a 1.1 percent fall in May.
Supermarket store sales had been falling for 25 straight months until January this year, before recovering in February and March.
Weather Helm
agreed!
Ok FFDIC
what is it
fright nite???
i read your other article by ambrose evans pritchard
even scarier than your prior linked article
and then the comments are from outerspace
i can see why the elite distrust and despise the unwashed masses
we are idiots!
She went on to explain how glycolic acid, a derivative of sugar cane, has the smallest molecular size of all the alpha hydroxy acids. Its size enables it to most effectively rejuvenate the skin through deep penetration.
Free acid concentration is the most important factor. The higher the free acid concentration, the greater the improvement in your skins texture, color and tone. Without the appropriate labeling it is impossible for you to know if a product is of high quality or if it will provide maximum benefits to your skin.
An environmental benefit to using glycolic peels for exfoliation is the formula does not contain those little plastic beads found in so many other products. An article in the scientific journal Orion (May/June, 2007) alerted Lauren to the fact that the polyethylene (plastic) beads wash right down the drain and go on to harm marine life. The tiny particles of polyethylene that scrub the dirt from your face wash straight down the drain and into watersheds and, eventually, oceans.
anoninCA writes:
Hey mock...you forgot about Halliburton's no-bid contracts during Clinton's time...oops Clinton's not repub, is he???
Clinton was a far better president than dubya, but then again so was mockey mouse.
i will never forgive clinton for signing the repeal of (part) Glass-Steagal.
however, clinton did sapply the brakes on deficit spending by slowing gov growth from 5% to 2 and increasing revenue.
sorry too much rye...cant spell
mocky should have been mickey
and sapply...well drop the s you know
yikes
The decline of more than 12 percent in crude oil prices last week shaved about 1 percent from prices at the pump as consumers paid less for gasoline and diesel fuel, the government"
Gasoline pump price dips as crude tumbles: government
| Reuters
July 16 (Reuters) - U.S. cash gasoline differentials were flat to slightly firmer as futures fell for a second day
Gasoline demand over the past four weeks fell by 2.1 percent from last year, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.
"Cargoes are landing with values at 5 cents under the screen and bids at 8 or 9 cents under," said one gasoline trader about imports of Eurograde which were seen diverted to Asia and the Middle East.
Values of RBOB cargoes are seen slightly higher than Eurograde but blending values are negative, traders said.
"The arb doesn't work either by a few pennies," said one RBOB blender, who said that U.S. production was ample.
In refinery news, trade sources said that several U.S. gasoline-making FCC units and reformers were seen down for work, which was also seen supportive for gasoline differentials.
Citgo was working on the FCC unit at its Corpus Christi, Tx refinery for about a week, trade sources.
For a list of refinery outages, click [REF/US]
asoline differentials are expected to show a modicum of seasonal strength as cargoes wane and refinery snags siphon barrels from bloated supplies in oil markets east of the Rockies, dealers said on Monday.
"It seems like the sellers have pulled back. There is not much resupply coming from Europe," said one gasoline trader with a major house about cargoes of Eurograde which are blended to make conventional gasoline.
US Products Outlook-Gasoline gains on pinched arb
| Reuters
Those fucking bastards!
Dollar will fall, inflation will continue, yields will slide further, stocks will remain calm and overvalued while PPT places fingers into tech dikes, or is that dykes, and of course, asphalt will kick your ass, alomg with corn, wheat, pineapples and blueberries.
"Days of supply coverage (in Group Three) has dropped to just 18.5 days, the lowest level since mid-November," said one Midwest broker
Did somebody say Super Prime?
It's a professor. It's a banker. No, it's Super Prime!
http://thumbsnap.com/v/uv39wV6z.jpg
he NYMEX August crude, RBOB gasoline and heating oil contracts finished the day in positive territory with Hurricane Dolly the main focus of many market participants. Tropical Storm Dolly has moved into the Gulf of Mexico and currently is projected to make landfall somewhere along the Mexican, Texas border on Wednesday, possibly as a hurricane.
Forgot about those images; go for the GIFs
o, try this?
ThumbSnap - Simple Image Hosting & Photo Sharing
Wow, mp mentions Barry Seal. There are some deep dark secrets from the eighties/early nineties that continue to haunt us. Not that everything was golden before that.
Gary Webb, RIP.
Ahhh crap sorry, the script used to hover the image here on halo... hmmm?
http://thumbsnap.com/v/qIHfRZYJ.gif
Why doesnt it work??
"If we had met five years ago, you wouldn't have found a more staunch defender of the newspaper industry than me ... I was winning awards, getting raises, lecturing college classes, appearing on TV shows, and judging journalism contests. So how could I possibly agree with people like Noam Chomsky and Ben Bagdikian, who were claiming the system didn't work, that it was steered by powerful special interests and corporations, and existed to protect the power elite? And then I wrote some stories that made me realize how sadly misplaced my bliss had been. The reason I'd enjoyed such smooth sailing for so long hadn't been, as I'd assumed, because I was careful and diligent and good at my job ... The truth was that, in all those years, I hadn't written anything important enough to suppress... \t
Gary Webb
perhaps our host has turned off that fun tool for GIF images?
12th Percentile: Can Tanta please create a Super Prime character and add it to the Mortgage Pig series?
I already did that back at the cut.
http://thumbsnap.com/v/8GwhSOYZ.jpg
But now I think we are very nearly out of bongwater!
Man, I should have bought a whole stash of POT and X a few months ago. I'd stay away from THC tho - drugs just don't work.
tranches of lunacy
its late for most in the 48 except west coasters
you posted earlier about the seahawks
i'm in western wa, you too?
But now I think we are very nearly out of bongwater!
dr strangemoney | 07.22.08 - 2:48 am | #
and cowbell too (gotta have more cowbell) but alas, with inflation we are already at neg interest rates, No?
yes rent_to_own, i too have argued that in many ways (not all) clinton WAS a true repub
bye
(all that glitters)
clinton WAS a true repub
Welfare Reform
Most Favored Nation status w/ China
Big Oil Mergers
Repeal of Glass-Steagal
Telecommunications (Deregulation) Act of 1996
FDA "Modernization" which allowed Direct-to-Consumer Advertisement, among others.
Mock... yeah, I'm in Seattle. You?
south of olympia
argento
yes clinton to right of center in terms of business and econ
but on many social, environmental and labor issues clinton was a little left of center
Tranches.. Mock... in the Pacific Northwest? I'm in Portland ... we had a get together of the Portland Housing blog about three weeks ago. You should come next time.
Yossarian
sounds like fun
often thought about what it would be like if many of the CR ers showed up with just their handles pinned to their lapels..no real id and just had a drink and talked housing and econ and stuff.
good night
gonna get up at 7 for the opening bell nyse
will check this thread for re
No wonder this gets so weird with PNW people; I'm there too?
"dignified senior, versus a porno queen!"
She's as dignified as a Kennedy. Not surprising since the source of their wealth is the same: daddy's illegal booze trade.
I'm not knocking the legal booze trade, but there is no indication that this daddy's monopoly was acquired anymore legally than Joe's was. It's as noble a trade as crack jobber.
The United States is dying. The minds of minions are closing into the comfort of denial. You can see on the boards if you seek.
It's likely that we're entering a period of cultural conformity which will be frightening in its ferocity towards dissenters.
I don't believe that I'll live long enough to see the United States become a positive culture again.
FDIC, Subprime Lender?
FDIC, Subprime Lender? : HousingWire || financial news for the mortgage market
A published report Monday took an in-depth look at the case, in which the FDIC took over Illinois-based Superior Bank FSB back in 2001, and then operated the bank for months as it searched for a buyer. During that time, the FDIC-controlled bank funded more than 6,700 subprime loans worth $550 million, according to the Wall Street Journal.
( 
BD writes, "Farrell blames the failure of deregulation on corrupt individuals. But when an unregulated system hands the greatest rewards to corrupt behavior, corruption will rule the system."
This really is the crux of the problem. Too many good men playing by the rules and waiting for their reward in heaven, while the heathens run wild. Too many milk toasts confusing legal with moral. Morally it's been open season on the likes of OJ and Mozillo for years and not a single man who doesn't tolerate them.
"The SEC is trying to send a message -- I am again not quite sure what the message is," ... "I am just not sure that this was an issue at all for the equity prices of these companies"
"Such action would severely burden short selling activity, which the SEC itself repeatedly has acknowledged plays a vital role in the stability of securities markets," said James Chanos, a well known short seller, who chairs the coalition.
"One of the better things these companies could do is go bankrupt," said Chanos, whose mostly bearish hedge fund bet against Enron Corp. in 2001 prior to its bankruptcy.
Chanos pointed out that he has seen "a lot more stocks go to zero" than infinity.
It all started with ZipperGate and then Bush SuperCharged corruption and collusion, then wham, you now can vote for Mccain and do it all again...
This is funny IMHO:
Firms See Few Snags With Short Limits
Firms See Few Snags With Short Limits - WSJ.com
Partners at proprietary-trading firm Bright Trading LLC, based in Chicago, spent extra time on the phone with their clearing broker, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., trying to obtain a total of 30,000 shares to borrow in four of the stocks for which the SEC is trying to crack down on improper short selling: Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
"All our traders thought it was worth it," said Bob Bright, a Bright Trading partner. A Goldman spokesman said the firm hasn't decided whether to charge an extra fee for the new requirements on borrowing shares.
:?:
Worse to come for epic lines at Tijuana crossing
Border guards are now requiring most crossers to show proof of citizenship
Worse may come for epic lines at Tijuana crossing - Security- msnbc.com
As of next June, all U.S. citizens will have to present a passport or security-enhanced card, much like an electronic toll tag, to cross or risk being waved out of line for a rigorous security check.
More than half the 21 million cars crossing from Tijuana each year wait 90 minutes or more, with a fourth stuck for more than two hours, according to survey data collected before the January rule change and published this month by Tijuana's College of the Northern Frontier.
Credit card companies better start sharply reducing limits or cutting people off entirely because a lot of people are just starting to say fuck it and won't be paying back a cent.
"As of next June, all U.S. citizens will have to present a passport or security-enhanced card, much like an electronic toll tag, to cross or risk being waved out of line for a rigorous security check."
So no spring break fun for California college kids. Hey, that sounds trade-able ... go short penicillin!
Good morning campers.
Don't know if this has been posted:
Fannie, Freddie May Record More Losses, Ofheo Says
Fannie, Freddie May Record More Losses, Ofheo Says (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
My favorite passage:
The value of $217 billion of the so-called non-agency securities is falling as other financial firms write down their holdings, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight said in its annual mortgage market report. Privately issued securities backed by subprime mortgages made up 9.2 percent of the companies' combined portfolio, while Alt-A represented about 5.8 percent, Ofheo said.
Weather Helm --
In fact, even the savings of illegals is covered by the FDIC. Which I have no problem with, since they pay taxes to help backstop the FDIC. Errmmm. Oh never mind.
Actually, it does make sense, because the purpose of the FDIC is not to protect depositors... It is to protect the banking system by maintaining confidence.
Hordes of illegals swarming the banks would do a lot to undermine that purpose, I suspect.
Suntrust unloads 44mm shares to beat the number.
During the second and third quarters of 2008, the Company completed three transactions to optimize the regulatory capital contribution of its long-term holdings of Coke common stock:
-- In June, the Company sold 10 million shares of Coke stock, which strengthened its estimated Tier 1 capital position by 20 basis points.
-- The Company received Federal Reserve approval, and in July completed a Tier 1 transaction involving 30 million shares of Coke stock generating 44 basis points in proforma June 30, 2008 additional Tier 1 capital.
-- Lastly, in July the Company contributed 3.6 million shares of Coke common stock to its charitable foundation which will reduce ongoing charitable contribution expense and increase Tier 1 capital by 4 basis points.
As a result of the Coke stock transactions completed in July, the Company's estimated Tier 1 capital position of 7.47% as of June 30, 2008 would have increased to an estimated 7.95% at June 30, 2008 on a proforma basis.
So a move that raises Tier I ratios by 68bp turns out to be a 48bp improvement?
Loss provisions up, default rates up and they haven't even gotten into CRE yet. Q3 reporting is gonna be a humdinger.
Great. Now the bankers are doing coke.
I'm having an 80s flashback.
JP --
Not doing; just dealing.
"How we supposed to unload all this Coke?"
Weather Helm - illegals do pay taxes to support the FDIC fund - you all do. Because the banks pay FDIC based on deposits, and the rates and fees banks charge for accounts are a bit elevated to cover the payments to the fund. Non-citizens have just as good a claim on everyone else on FDIC deposit insurance.
breaking on cnbc.com: Wachovia loses $1.27 vs estimates of .78 -cuts dividend
Nemo: LOL. I'm going to go snort me some caffeine, which is about all I can handle these days.
Update: Wachovia just slashed dividend...
Futures a slumpi
Are we sure AmEx said "Super Prime" and not "Super Fly"?
Bloomberg on wachovia:
Wachovia Has Record $8.9 Billion Loss, Cuts Dividend (Update4) - Bloomberg.com
some feel she may be a vampire.
But vampires suck out blood, not brains.
Is Wachovia changing their symbol to GT0?
For the weather freaks you can check out the NOAA graphical hurricane update
I used to have a really good upper level wind page(to see steering patterns for sorm systems) but it's gone dark; anybody know of a good one?
Enough is enough. Time for Wachovia to replace its CEO.
Hordes of illegals swarming the banks would do a lot to undermine that purpose, I suspect.
just use them as traps w/INS rounding them up as they wait in line...
P-yew! That Wachovia earnings report is gonna leave a stench. Somebody hit the street with a can of lysol, please.
Nemo, LOL - yes steel has had his 15 minutes
I see in the Bloomberg link above that Wachovia discontinued option ARMs last month. That's brilliant.
Well, what rabbit can Paulson/Cox/Bernanke pull out of the hat today? Easy to add Wachovia and a few others to the endangered-by-short-seller-list. Investigations of bearers of bad news are boring, how about a few indictments for wire fraud or something? And there must be some unpopular country that would like to improve its reputation by sticking some depreciating dollars into a sovereign wealth bailout entity.
If they put their minds to it, I'm sure we can have another Dow +200.
OH MY.
Paulson just added "hedge funds" among the groups that will need to be part of the new "bankruptcy process" (in other words, they'll need to be added to the too big to fail list and need treasury/fed backstop)
this is getting (got?) rediculous.
He's adding hedge funds!
This has got to be the biggest joke going.
Are Americans really that dumb, that the Taxpayer is going to support this??? If congress/senate approves then I guess the answer is a big YES!
Can we stuff Bernanke, Paulson and Cox back INTO a hat?
Paulson just added "hedge funds" among the groups that will need to be part of the new "bankruptcy process" (in other words, they'll need to be added to the too big to fail list and need treasury/fed backstop)
I make a point of not posting while I am at work but this is outrageous. Hedge funds! He should be arrested for even proposing this!
Paulson just added "hedge funds" among the groups that will need to be part of the new "bankruptcy process"
Pray tell: Just what is the new "bankruptcy process"?
S&P futures ticking up. Guess the Wachovia news was priced in. So this probably reflects a "bottom" in financials. ....Right....
Someone better wake CR.
And some day when they've learned
Cherokee Indian will return
Will return will retur
YTL,
Link?
Nemo, right, "And if you lose, don't ask no questions why!"
Paulson is stuttering badly. And i suspect he may have already crapped himself. Do I see fear in those eyes? Perhaps that is why he's repeating over and over that the banking system is "sound". Now if he could only learn that Jedi mind trick where you wave your hand.
Bear trap??
Alex: This is the best link for following Hurricanes:
Jeff Masters
The Weather Underground link to Dr Jeff Masters.
Stupid question here: "Why would the CC companies care about oil prices?" Tchochkies from the Chicoms or oil from the Emirs so long as you're putting it on plastic, what does it matter to them?
Wunderground is fine, but I like to see winds above 15k to 30k to really get an idea of where they'll go. Usually you have to go to aviation sites, but now the NOAA has this for 15,000 ft
UPDATE 1-US's Paulson: markets depend on housing recovery
| Reuters
Translation: Housing is still falling like a rock, the GSE's are insolvent, but we will do everything including letting them cook the books and slip the loses to the taxpayers to turn this around. Back to you Hank.
Pray tell: Just what is the new "bankruptcy process"?
(1) Institution finds itself unable to raise capital and/or under attack by those nasty, nasty shorts, runs to Washington, and offers to kiss Ben Bernanke's ring.
(2) Fed offers freshly minted Treasuries to institution in exchange for some manner of "dark-matter" debt with no calculable value.
(3) "Dark-matter" debt is eventually "marked to market", at a price much lower than the value of Treasuries offered in exchange, possibly zero. Taxpayer picks up the tab.
(4) Institution heads shrug, mumble "Hoocoodanode?", and head out to pick up another Gulfstream.
(5) Rinse and repeat.
Bear trap??
Looks like somebody's gearing up to try to blast the market higher.
Paulson is stuttering badly.
I don't think it's acceptable in a country to have leadership that can't speak the native language. Communication is an essential part of the job.
This seems to be a more and more common occurrence these days.
Hey ac, don't knock it.
I love somebody who has honest body language. It allows me to ignore whatever is coming out of their mouth.
"Looking forward, we must balance two very important priorities -- better regulation through a more effective updated regulatory structure on the one hand and market discipline to limit moral hazard on the other," Paulson said in remarks made available in Washington.
"Market discipline plays an enormous role in curtailing excessive risk-taking, a role that neither can nor should be completely executed by regulators."
Business finance news - currency market news - online UK currency markets - financial news - Interactive Investor
Translation: We had a ton of regulations such as the one for naked short selling has been in place for years and applies to all stocks but my buddies on Wall Street were making to damn much money and the regulators were paid off to look the other way. I'm sure if they write that over again we'll get it right. Back to you Hank
Bear trap??
Good chance of that, I think. Enough sentiment in favor of at least a short term rally. Cramer was yammering on last night about how we might test the recent lows but won't go lower.
DOW up 330 today
I'm surprised the world didn't explode when Paulson said that the FDIC guarantee is up to $10,000.
is Paulson used to dividing all of the important numbers by 10? Subprime losses might be $1,000B/10 = $100B. Cost of GSE bailout to taxpayers $500B/10 = $50B
dollar intevention on the menu today?
*interventio
"If you had to do it over again, knowing what you know now, would you support the surge:"
"No, because keep in mind that question, you wouldn't ... but keep in mind that kind of hypothetical is very difficult to know hindsight is 20-20 ... later ... but I think that what I'm absolutely convinced of is that at that time we had to change the political debate because the view of the Bush administration at that time was one that I just disagreed with."
Wow! Now that's just amazing! What off-the-cuff eloquence! This guy is really sharp. Now we all know why Barack "our saviour" Obama would still vote against the surge ... the troop surge that worked.
I should ignore that. I should.
What is working in Iraq is Petraeus's counter-insurgency tactics. He's had to refashion every aspect of military operations in the region, something not accomplished easily or quickly.
Credit the surge if you like. It's certainly much simpler and more easily understood.
Burnside:
I do not necesarily disagree...
The surge was never about "just numbers" as their authors stated back in 2006. It is ignorance to think it was about simply an increase and not a change in tactics. Our savior should have known it then, if not he should know it now.,
"Proponents of one prominent surge plan agree. Drawn up under the auspices of the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), the plan would put four additional Army brigades into Baghdad and two additional Marine regimental combat teams into Sunni-dominated Anbar Province, in an effort to curtail Iraqi violence.
"This is not just a debate about numbers. In the first instance, this is a debate about strategy," said one author of the plan, military historian Frederick Kagan, at a Dec. 14 AEI seminar outlining it. Mr. Kagan has also met with Mr. Bush about what might be achieved by bringing more US military might to Iraq.
It has never been the primary mission of the US military in Iraq to establish security to protect the population, argued Kagan. Since the toppling of Saddam Hussein, the military mission has been to train Iraqis and turn the problem over to them.
For the most part, US counterinsurgency efforts have focused on attacking adversaries. That should change, according to the AEI plan, to defense and economic support of Iraqi civilians.
"You do not focus on the enemy. You focus on the people," said another of the plan's co-authors, retired Army Gen. Jack Keane, at the AEI event.
The worst fighting is occurring in mixed Sunni-Shiite Baghdad neighborhoods, according to Kagan. That is where Sunni insurgents are struggling with Shiite militias in tit-for-tat sectarian warfare.
The AEI study identifies 23 such residential districts. With an additional 20,000 troops, the US military could surge into these neighborhoods, clear them of bad guys, and then leave units behind to keep them clear while moving on to the next target.
"You put a protect force in, that lives in the neighborhood.... They use empty houses. They use government buildings, schools that are not being used," said General Keane.
In Anbar, the extra marines would not be enough to allow the US to carry out this approach. Instead, they would focus on preventing insurgents flushed from Baghdad from using Anbar as a base.
This whole endeavor would be accompanied by a reconstruction effort that would provide Baghdad residents with better basic services, under the AEI plan. The extra troops would be generated by accelerating the deployment of units bound for Iraq, and by extending the tours of some units already there.
"This will not break the Army and the Marine Corps. I am not suggesting it is not hard," said Kagan.
Whether the US military would use extra troops in this manner is not publicly known. The AEI plan has reportedly been well-received by some White House officials.
But whether to surge isn't the real issue facing Bush, according to Mr. Cordesman of CSIS. It is whether he can counter the trend toward civil war in Iraq while implementing policies that promise longer-term success. "He cannot do this simply by sending more troops to Iraq, although that may be useful as part of a coherent strategy," said Cordesman in his commentary.
Such a strategy might include pressure on the Iraqi government to try harder on sectarian reconciliation, and fresh efforts to build the Iraqi army and police. Absent new political moves, a surge will seem like a pro-Shiite tilt by the US, argued Cordesman."
ot to mention, sometimes, simply, the thought of blowing one's self up, becomes entirely less appealing, when especially, martyrdom becomes so....common place.
I hesitate to walk into YOSP and burnside's debate, not the least because of extreeme off-topicness, but one difference is that somebdody decided to actually TRY and win, instead of staving off defeat another month and hoping that somehow victory would show up in the meantime.
Ye Olde,
American Enterprise reflect other people's findings and their own public relations. You're too bright not to look past them.
They're selling Cliff Notes - didn't write the book.
All well and good, but look at the chart for RTH and its constituents.
Seeing positive divergences in KSS, LTD.
It's okay though, b/c we are not in a recession, and US Govt numbers will soon prove it.