To put this in perspective. New York is blue on that map. Here is what the governor of NY said yesterday about the state's finances
In Albany yesterday, Paterson told reporters that state revenues "are falling ... at a frightening pace." State government derives 20 percent of its money from taxes on activities tied to financial services.
Recession? Don't be stupid. Recessions have been abolished, along with naked shorts and free enterprize. Just look how happy the stock market is with our new found socialism.
Good job! As a fiscal conservative and current dumbfounded republican (as there obviously none of us left in DC- fiscal conservatives not dumbfounded GOPr's ya'll), I thought the same thing wrt the electorial or county win map....
Mike in AZ writes:
Quite a jump in the number of states showing increasing activity! It went from 6 last month to 13 this month. Could we be turning a corner?
Turning a corner from what? I thought the whole point was that there has never been a problem with our strong economy. Banks are in good shape. Fannie and Freddie are alive and kicking.
With what he posted (and I totally agree with it) I would have upped my security detail a bit more.
I am surprised that we have nor heard any stories about any of the people who caused all this being attacked or increasing security. I suppose if we did then we'd really know it's over. Can't drive a gated car but you can live in a gated community.
Look at SBUX too...up 4.5% they must have some really good numbers come friday....not
I wonder if Texas being the strongest blue has anything to do with the guy in the White House?
Maybe. But it probably has more to do with being a hub of energy business and also the crazy cash being thrown around on natural gas drilling in the Barnett Shale.
If this manipulation doesn't stop, I'm going to start a revolution. Who's with me?
What you are seeing is a growing gap between what indexes are worth and what individual companies are worth. You can see that today in how Sandisk is just getting clobbered for its big earnings miss.
Most of the manipulation if focusing on propping up U.S. equity indexes. So, the stocks in the index are being valued 50-100% higher than comparable companies that aren't.
My theory is that this gap isn't sustainable in an efficient global market. There will be a lot of Sandisks over the next year. And as the earnings crash, the index manipulators will give it up and move to better valuations.
Sandisk now has a forward P/E of 8.
Anything with a forward P/E of 30+ is vulnerable in this market.
Map coincides with the fund-raising stats for my university. Donations are falling on the west coast, which is pink, but still comfortably up in the NE and in the Colorado-to-Illinois heartland, which are still in the blue.
the big question that Dixon does not tackle is whether this crisis is really just like all the others -- Long-Term Capital Management, the tech bust, the S&L crisis -- or whether there is something about it that is fundamentally different, fundamentally more serious. Why should this matter? Because if it's just a matter of making some adjustments, of twiddling the dial back on greed and pushing the fear lever up a bit, of installing tougher capital requirements or leverage ratios, then the system of regulation and oversight we now have is mostly sufficient. I would argue that this is the view from Treasury; and Treasury's sharp nudge of the Federal Reserve onto the stage as a super-regulator, for all its drama, does not suggest that there are fundamental underlying problems that need to be tackled. In fact, the Fed supplanting the Securities and Exchange Commission and some minor regulatory fiefdoms really resembles an attempt to realign supervision to the reality that it is really more about a single uber market and not a gaggle of varied markets or differentiated institutions. In a sense, it's fundamentally conservative. Let's clean it up and let the games begin again.
Now that may be right. If rumors can get amplified these days, so too can fears, particularly from the self-interested. But even on Wall Street these days -- particularly on Wall Street -- there is a murmur that perhaps something more deeply is wrong. The complicity in the crisis is both wide and deep, from mortgage borrowers to giant, global firms. The problem appears to be systemic.
energyecon writes:
Intervention in currency markets?
energyecon | 07.22.08 - 11:41 am
Of course there is intervention- everywhere. That is what keeps Wall Street prosperous in our new command economy. Long live the Union of Soviet Socialist America.
I agree. 25+ yrs of industrial production decline and increasingly financial engineered driven bullshit for the US economy ( especially last 8 yrs under Bush ) with massive market bubbles has created systemic damage.
awgee writes:
Just figured out why gold shot down and the dollar shot up: Paulson said a strong dollar is important to the US.
awgee | 07.22.08 - 12:05 pm | #
Yep folks, its as simple as that. Paulson says a strong dollar is important - ergo the dollar is saved.
I do believe that I am actually in a coma and all this craziness from wall st to housing to politics to media is all some crazy dreamand you guys are all in it. The last straw was Andrea Mitchell...
Pot meet Kettle... Maybe Al has rubbed off on her...too much cadmium or selinium in the diet...
"That is what keeps Wall Street prosperous in our new command economy"
Couldn't agree more about the state of the authorities' level of meddling. But, in the end, they can't save every single entity. They are now in ring-fence mode as evidenced by singling out 19 institutions. Many others will fall by the wayside.
Where were these assclown regulators in 2003 & 2004 ? Setting all these PoS operations up, to fail.
An index of economic indicators whose movements closely coincide with the overall cycle of economic activity. Along with lagging and leading indicators, this index highlights the speed and size of growth or shrinkage in an economy.
so... did people speak this apocalyptically as the tech boom was unwinding? In the 73-74 mess? It's hard to know, because the net was not so ubiquitous. Would be nice to be able to compare "word on the street," though. Anyone who lived through the priors, have an opinion?
"Anonymous writes:
Bucky is definitely worth more today than he/she/it/clod will be tomorrow.
Spend'em if you gotta 'em...and if you don't got 'em...spend even more."
That's just what the Fed wants you to believe, so you'll spend and boost our dying consumer economy. Too bad, it isn't a matter of spending savings, as the savers still won't spend. Only the debtors are spenders, and they are running on credit fumes.
So the Fed wants to put fear into those savers so they will start spending. But it won't work, cause they have seen too much asset value erosion on investments, and are reluctant to part with a declining capital base.
But it won't work, as the big D is coming, and I don't mean depression.
This morning my old dog walked across the lawn looking old and tired. She stopped, leaned back, and began to make her business. As her constitution slowly exited, I saw it dangle just for a second before dropping quickly to the ground. What was once her nourishment was now her dead waste. And I looked up in the sky and realized that God was talking to me. We are that stinky turd in that dangling milisecond.
12th Percentile - Here in Virginia we are bracing for massive budget shortfalls; our Governor is issuing similar warnings...I'm kind of pleasantly shocked that we're ever so slightly in the blue...
Nice catch! Anyone a graphics guru who could reinterpret the map using the color guide from the earlier map?
Sure, just turn everything the darkest red in the new map one shade lighter. The old map lumped everything under 0.5 together. The newest map breaks this up a little bit to show the worst states (< 1. in a new category. Perhaps there were no states in this category last time so there was no need to break them out, or perhaps they wanted more detail on the new graph. There's nothing deceptive here. There's just more detail in the new graph.
I take it when the unemployment rate in Montana jumps from 2.5% or so to 4.1% we call that a recession. Damn if only we could all have 2.5% unemployment all the time.
Firsterist?
Gads! The West Is Red as well as the East. Come the revolution?
Wow, how much redder can the graph get ?
Nope. Ben Stein and Larry Kudlow assure me that we are not in a recession.
As red as it want, the Fed and Treasury can just fudge the numbers more. Nothing to see here, move along.
CR if you keep talking recession the feds are going to show up and haul your butt to Gitmo.
OK loaded question (I know i am going to love the responses but hate myself): But whats a coincidence?
Funny how a depression will look the same on the map as would a Republican sweep of the electoral college.
To put this in perspective. New York is blue on that map. Here is what the governor of NY said yesterday about the state's finances
In Albany yesterday, Paterson told reporters that state revenues "are falling ... at a frightening pace." State government derives 20 percent of its money from taxes on activities tied to financial services.
coincidence is current indicator
Tecumseh,
There are no coincidences!
Recession? Don't be stupid. Recessions have been abolished, along with naked shorts and free enterprize. Just look how happy the stock market is with our new found socialism.
Hey we are going to get near a record numbe of posts from CR, OFHEO is out with record price drops today...
TJ,
Good job! As a fiscal conservative and current dumbfounded republican (as there obviously none of us left in DC- fiscal conservatives not dumbfounded GOPr's ya'll), I thought the same thing wrt the electorial or county win map....
I wonder if Texas being the strongest blue has anything to do with the guy in the White House?
brian23,
though slow, i kinda figured that one out on my own....
Its the erl bidness, Bubba...but that is fixin' to change...
I don't mean to nit pick but on the first graph definition of dark red is less than -1%, that would = red.
Definition should be Greater than -1%
and in other news, Wachovia is still up!!! over 8% now.
That last chart should be labeled NSFW.
Hey,
has anyone out there seen T Boone's paid for commercial about his upcoming energy plan announcement? I saw it last night before grapevine with Brit...
very interesting...
Quite a jump in the number of states showing increasing activity! It went from 6 last month to 13 this month. Could we be turning a corner?
If this manipulation doesn't stop, I'm going to start a revolution. Who's with me?
GH-
I'm in but right now I'm just stunned!
moving on up...+11% now.
Mike in AZ writes:
Quite a jump in the number of states showing increasing activity! It went from 6 last month to 13 this month. Could we be turning a corner?
Turning a corner from what? I thought the whole point was that there has never been a problem with our strong economy. Banks are in good shape. Fannie and Freddie are alive and kicking.
Gold down $21. ?
Mike in AZ,
Try reading CR's post again. The second graph is older, circa Dec. 2007. We're in a bloody contraction at the moment that's worsening month to month.
Anyone hear from Roubini lately??
With what he posted (and I totally agree with it) I would have upped my security detail a bit more.
I am surprised that we have nor heard any stories about any of the people who caused all this being attacked or increasing security. I suppose if we did then we'd really know it's over. Can't drive a gated car but you can live in a gated community.
Look at SBUX too...up 4.5% they must have some really good numbers come friday....not
Ciao
MS
Intervention in currency markets?
That's it...I'm cashing out, buying a whole bunch of toys, Maxing my credit cards,(lots of room) and enjoying the pollyanna world of the U.S.
I also bought a pair of rose colored glasses.
Pulling out all money of my bank...
priceless
August oil future contracts expire today..
Anonymouse,
In May, there were only 6 states showing an increase, in June there were 13...
If you look at the final graph, this increase would seem to indicate we are getting close to the end of this recession.
Maybe. But it probably has more to do with being a hub of energy business and also the crazy cash being thrown around on natural gas drilling in the Barnett Shale.
Bucky is definitely worth more today than he/she/it/clod will be tomorrow.
Spend'em if you gotta 'em...and if you don't got 'em...spend even more.
Mike in AZ: Are you a shill or just stupid?
stockmarket is showing some impressive strength. feels like a massive short-squeeze is coming up. will it take s&p above 1,300?
What you are seeing is a growing gap between what indexes are worth and what individual companies are worth. You can see that today in how Sandisk is just getting clobbered for its big earnings miss.
Most of the manipulation if focusing on propping up U.S. equity indexes. So, the stocks in the index are being valued 50-100% higher than comparable companies that aren't.
My theory is that this gap isn't sustainable in an efficient global market. There will be a lot of Sandisks over the next year. And as the earnings crash, the index manipulators will give it up and move to better valuations.
Sandisk now has a forward P/E of 8.
Anything with a forward P/E of 30+ is vulnerable in this market.
Where are the coincident indexes defined and explained? Shouldn't there be a link for the economic unwashed?
jstlokin writes:
I don't mean to nit pick but on the first graph definition of dark red is less than -1%, that would = red.
Definition should be Greater than -1%
Not to nit pick, but the graph labelling is correct. -2 is less than -1, and 0 is greater than -1. Capice?
Map coincides with the fund-raising stats for my university. Donations are falling on the west coast, which is pink, but still comfortably up in the NE and in the Colorado-to-Illinois heartland, which are still in the blue.
We don't do Texas.
the big question that Dixon does not tackle is whether this crisis is really just like all the others -- Long-Term Capital Management, the tech bust, the S&L crisis -- or whether there is something about it that is fundamentally different, fundamentally more serious. Why should this matter? Because if it's just a matter of making some adjustments, of twiddling the dial back on greed and pushing the fear lever up a bit, of installing tougher capital requirements or leverage ratios, then the system of regulation and oversight we now have is mostly sufficient. I would argue that this is the view from Treasury; and Treasury's sharp nudge of the Federal Reserve onto the stage as a super-regulator, for all its drama, does not suggest that there are fundamental underlying problems that need to be tackled. In fact, the Fed supplanting the Securities and Exchange Commission and some minor regulatory fiefdoms really resembles an attempt to realign supervision to the reality that it is really more about a single uber market and not a gaggle of varied markets or differentiated institutions. In a sense, it's fundamentally conservative. Let's clean it up and let the games begin again.
Now that may be right. If rumors can get amplified these days, so too can fears, particularly from the self-interested. But even on Wall Street these days -- particularly on Wall Street -- there is a murmur that perhaps something more deeply is wrong. The complicity in the crisis is both wide and deep, from mortgage borrowers to giant, global firms. The problem appears to be systemic.
The continuing crisis: How systemic is the problem? (Dealscape - Industries)
energyecon writes:
Intervention in currency markets?
energyecon | 07.22.08 - 11:41 am
Of course there is intervention- everywhere. That is what keeps Wall Street prosperous in our new command economy. Long live the Union of Soviet Socialist America.
OT but hurricane warning issued for brownsville
I agree. 25+ yrs of industrial production decline and increasingly financial engineered driven bullshit for the US economy ( especially last 8 yrs under Bush ) with massive market bubbles has created systemic damage.
what the hell is a coincident index????????
SSBN628 writes:
OT but hurricane warning issued for brownsville
I went to Brownsville once. Nothing there.
must not mean much.......DOW is green even after Wachovia lost $8.9B and WB is up 1.4. what a world we live in.
Straight from the horse's...mouth?!
CBO Director's blog
Letter on GSE Bailout cost estimate (pdf warning)
SSBN628.....we're you on SSBN 628?
I was one SSN 693
"Could we be turning a corner?"
In a way--we are going over the falls.
Straight from the horse's...mouth?!
Just don't forget that the forgot to multiply by 10.
Just figured out why gold shot down and the dollar shot up: Paulson said a strong dollar is important to the US.
...without a barrel.
The USA and its financial crooks are too big to fail so why not let the America middle class chumps bail them out again.
randy,
Yep, with pride man!
awgee writes:
Just figured out why gold shot down and the dollar shot up: Paulson said a strong dollar is important to the US.
awgee | 07.22.08 - 12:05 pm | #
Yep folks, its as simple as that. Paulson says a strong dollar is important - ergo the dollar is saved.
I do believe that I am actually in a coma and all this craziness from wall st to housing to politics to media is all some crazy dreamand you guys are all in it. The last straw was Andrea Mitchell...
Pot meet Kettle... Maybe Al has rubbed off on her...too much cadmium or selinium in the diet...
most likely a coma...
http://newsbusters.org/static/2008/07/2008-07-21MSNBCHB.wmv
"That is what keeps Wall Street prosperous in our new command economy"
Couldn't agree more about the state of the authorities' level of meddling. But, in the end, they can't save every single entity. They are now in ring-fence mode as evidenced by singling out 19 institutions. Many others will fall by the wayside.
Where were these assclown regulators in 2003 & 2004 ? Setting all these PoS operations up, to fail.
Am I the only one whose brain read "Philly Cheese Steak" when I looked at the post headline?
Must be lunchtime.
Coincident Index
From Reuters Financial Glossary
An index of economic indicators whose movements closely coincide with the overall cycle of economic activity. Along with lagging and leading indicators, this index highlights the speed and size of growth or shrinkage in an economy.
so... did people speak this apocalyptically as the tech boom was unwinding? In the 73-74 mess? It's hard to know, because the net was not so ubiquitous. Would be nice to be able to compare "word on the street," though. Anyone who lived through the priors, have an opinion?
Note that if they would have used the same color scale this time as in Dec 2007 (or vice versa), the graph would be MUCH REDDER.
In December the worst red was < -0.5%.
Now it's < - 1.0%
!!!!
"Anonymous writes:
Bucky is definitely worth more today than he/she/it/clod will be tomorrow.
Spend'em if you gotta 'em...and if you don't got 'em...spend even more."
That's just what the Fed wants you to believe, so you'll spend and boost our dying consumer economy. Too bad, it isn't a matter of spending savings, as the savers still won't spend. Only the debtors are spenders, and they are running on credit fumes.
So the Fed wants to put fear into those savers so they will start spending. But it won't work, cause they have seen too much asset value erosion on investments, and are reluctant to part with a declining capital base.
But it won't work, as the big D is coming, and I don't mean depression.
randy writes:
SSBN628....."we're you . . . "
Is this English?
This morning my old dog walked across the lawn looking old and tired. She stopped, leaned back, and began to make her business. As her constitution slowly exited, I saw it dangle just for a second before dropping quickly to the ground. What was once her nourishment was now her dead waste. And I looked up in the sky and realized that God was talking to me. We are that stinky turd in that dangling milisecond.
12th Percentile - Here in Virginia we are bracing for massive budget shortfalls; our Governor is issuing similar warnings...I'm kind of pleasantly shocked that we're ever so slightly in the blue...
And that tired old dog is your guvment and Wall Street shitting us out to dry out in the su
Wisdom Seeker,
Nice catch! Anyone a graphics guru who could reinterpret the map using the color guide from the earlier map?
Wisdom Seeker writes:
Note that if they would have used the same color scale this time as in Dec 2007 (or vice versa), the graph would be MUCH REDDER.
In December the worst red was < -0.5%.
Now it's < - 1.0%
!!!!
Wisdom Seeker | 07.22.08 - 12:22 pm | #
Jackson,
It appears that the rich, parasitic "tapeworms" would survive this ordeal then, doesn't it?
energyecon writes:
Wisdom Seeker,
Nice catch! Anyone a graphics guru who could reinterpret the map using the color guide from the earlier map?
Sure, just turn everything the darkest red in the new map one shade lighter. The old map lumped everything under 0.5 together. The newest map breaks this up a little bit to show the worst states (< 1.
in a new category. Perhaps there were no states in this category last time so there was no need to break them out, or perhaps they wanted more detail on the new graph. There's nothing deceptive here. There's just more detail in the new graph.
Phila Fed's excel sheet is not anywhere as pessimistic.
http://www.philadelphiafed.org/econ/indexes/coincident/coincident-historical.xls
Props to scav!
I take it when the unemployment rate in Montana jumps from 2.5% or so to 4.1% we call that a recession. Damn if only we could all have 2.5% unemployment all the time.