DataQuick: Record California Foreclosure Activity in Q2
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Tue, 07/22/2008 - 10:47am (135 comments)
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Maybe this is just double- and triple-counting the people who get foreclosure notices from multiple banks. You know, like loan approvals.
[I]t may be that some lenders are starting to prioritize workouts with homeowners instead of grinding things through the foreclosure process.
We'll there's nobody to sell the house to so that kind of make sense.
damn it I wanted a double
Don't worry. Paulson says the housing market will bottom in a couple of months.
Maybe this is just double- and triple-counting the people who get foreclosure notices from multiple banks. You know, like loan approvals.
If it's just one flipper getting foreclosures on 6 different properties really they should just be counted as one so the statistics aren't so skewed.
rampant spoilage
Sez it all.
No doubt the number is skewed upward by multiple filings on individual circumstances but so what? That's indicative that workouts aren't sticking.
I can't wait to see how many Countrywide defaults were postponed while the BAC takeover was being engineered. Actually, I can wait because I suspect the silent partner (the taxpayer) will be presented with the bill.
Oh Wow. That is just...unreal.
It seems like...well...they just can't possibly push that pig through the snake!
Absolutely unreal. So much for sticky RE prices and slow price discovery.
why can't they just count by adress.
This will eliminate double counting.
or are they already doing that? Anyhow
it is more than just terrible. It is indeed stunning.
You're gonna need a bigger boat...er, chart.
Whoocoodanode!?
Seems like the multiple count of NOD bias should have been consistent across years. If this is the case, then as Nemo points the absolute number of NODs may be overstated - but the relative increase is likely to be accurate - and that is the most astounding thing
Can I ask a dumb question?
Did the population increase in any comparable way with this type of data? I mean, we know there was a massive influx of Bush-backed illegal immigrants in the last 8 years, so ... hmmm; this is mind altering!
Historical populations
Demographics of California - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
1980\t23,667,902\t\t18.6%
1990\t29,760,021\t\t25.7%
2000\t33,871,648\t\t13.8%
The Bay Area's population, now about 7 million, is expected to grow by an additional 1.7 million in the next 25 years - the equivalent of adding a new San Francisco and San Jose. Parks lovers say the region is in a race to preserve its natural surroundings.
Golden Gate Bridge plates set to benefit Bay Area parks - San Jose Mercury News
So if 40% of the market is foreclosures, who is buying the other places? And why?
This chart reminds me of Californis home prices just a few years ago.
Whoocoodanode!
OT: Is barbie Prego in this video?
YouTube - Peter Green Fleetwood Mac "Rattlesnake Shake"
sdtfs writes:
So if 40% of the market is foreclosures, who is buying the other places? And why?
sdtfs | 07.22.08 - 3:17 pm | #
There will always be people who think
buying a home is a good idea. My
dumbass freinds and family members included.
I'd really like to see a map overlay of this latest information. My "starter house" neighborhood in Long Beach is coming out the sub-prime disaster and about half of those houses have been resold. The most distressed ones are still on the market. We haven't seen any new "For Sale - Bank Repo" signs in many months. Based on observation, I'd bet this round is hitting the higher-end and "nice" neighborhoods.
OT: Can anyone explain why the Russell 2000 is up so high today?
Nemo, there is a little double counting ... from DataQuick:
Although 121,341 default notices were filed last quarter, they involved 118,020 homes because some borrowers were in default on multiple loans (e.g. a primary mortgage and a line of credit).
It's pretty minor.
Best to all.
This just reflects what I see around me here in san diego. Almost all the sale signs around me are foreclosures. In my hood there are sellers that are still trying to get $500K for a 3br/2ba 6K lot about 10 blocks to ocean while on my street there is similar with pool/jacuzzi for $360K!! Make it go away! What is my house actually worth? Bank tells me less $100K!
Re: Can I ask a dumb question?
What I mean, is the ratio of home foreclosure REOs, etc, increasing at the same rate as the population increase..... I think that's what I mean, but this increased ratio is out of proportion, isn't it?
That chart can also be read as a graph of the number of whiners in California.
The Free Markets! will solve their problem.
WB UP 18% Today alone! How can I participate?
Think they'll be giving any back?
This move in WB is unbelievable. If you didn't believe in manipulation and collusion by the largest money managers on Wall Street, this effort should give you pause. I only wish I had more money with which to buy WB puts.
where are all of these people going to move to?
Tent cities?
Will tents be the next boom?
What is Coleman's ticker?
this financials bull run today is way beyond collusion and manipulation..
it's downright evil....
where is bond when you need him
GH-
It just hit it's recent high 16.29....buying Puts now.
But yes it is amazing isn't it...total crap IMO.
Ciao
MS
Anonymous writes:
Re: Can I ask a dumb question?
Rick Toscano of Nerd's eye view does
a pop adjusted version of the same chart. Just visit his site once a week.
voiceofsandiego.org
"Think they'll be giving any back?"
All of it just as soon as the insiders are threw cashing out.
"And so we have a pathetically obvious intervention in the markets today to help to curb the declines in shares and bolster the dollar as banks declare more losses and one of the few remaining bond insurers implodes.
What would the penalty be for dynamiting bridges used by the public evacuating the shore areas from the approach of an incoming tsunami?
The market intervention 'for the good of the public' is being used to further line the pockets of the Wall Street wiseguys. Its a dirty business."
jessescrossroadscafe blog
On June 23, the boards of the Fed banks in Kansas City and Dallas asked the Fed to raise the discount rate (also known as the primary credit rate) from 2.25% to 2.50%. The Fed board did not act on those requests.
Two days later, the larger Federal Open Market Committee voted to keep the federal funds target rate steady at 2%.
The regional bank directors who wanted rate hikes "favored reversing some of the monetary policy easing that had been implemented in recent months," arguing that downside risks to the economy "were outweighed by the upside risk of inflation," the truncated minutes said.
The regional banks are run by nine-member boards of volunteer bankers and citizens, who hire a president to oversee daily operations and to serve on the FOMC. The chairman of the Dallas Fed is James Hackett, chairman of Anadarko Petroleum . Herb Kelleher, chief executive officer of Southwest Airlines , also serves on the Dallas board.
The chairman of the Kansas City Fed is Lu Cordova, chief executive officer of Corlund Industries.
CR,
Great post. Thanks.
"an estimated 22 percent emerge from the foreclosure process by bringing their payments current.... A year ago it was 52 percent."
Definately a declining trend. At least it can't go below 0%.
Gee a coincidence that the options writer automatically raises his bid to MATCH my limit order?? That's a .10 RISE in BID price so that he doesn't have to fill my order.
This has been going on in most stocks for almost a year.
This is thievery at it's FINEST!!
Ciao
MS
Thanks for the link DH!
I enjoyed the play there as well!
SKF, how low will you go??
Lots of cover for Sheila to swoop in on Friday and pick off of a few of the those at the bottom on the growing list.
Stocks go up and down for longer than one would expect. I am now net long in financials and will hold off on puts until they start down again. I've lost too much money going against the market. It's best to be sure that the bounce has played out before going against a trend. When WB, Zion, RF etc are going up fast, the financials may keep going up for a while. Perhaps the increase in the RUT today is due to a pop in small banks(?)
pretty obvious where the oil money is going...
Ciao
MS
You'd think this would incentivise banks to focus scarce resources on selling whatever homes they already own before pilling on more foreclosures to have to maintain. If they can only sell n homes a month, better a non-paying lived in mortgage home where you don't owe $1000/day than an empty REO with extra squatter damage to repair until you finally need to fillin a gap for the queue for n...
California's mortgage bill
404 - Not Found - sacbee.com
I'd guess only lenders who are angling for a bailout are going to be prioritizing work outs, especially given the recent statistics indicating that most of those will also fail eventually. If you have people in homes they cannot afford, no amount of postponing the inevitable foreclosure is going to net the bank money. In fact, the bank should have a strong incentive to do the opposite (push through the foreclosure ASAP) in a declining market, to get as much resale value from the properties as possible.
I'd guess some lenders are swamped, others are angling for a bailout or have ulterior motives (like preventing realizing losses on level 3 assets), and a few are being run by the FDIC and are flushing taxpayer dollars down the drain chasing a personal crusade to keep house prices inflated. The fact that foreclosures are accelerating, even with all the underhanded and corrupt methods being employed to forestall and hide losses (or offload losses to taxpayers), says we're nowhere near the bottom.
"Anonymous writes:
pretty obvious where the oil money is going..."
what the Arabs can't win politically or militarily they'll win financially. Soon all the banks will be sovereign.
Why doesn't this worry Lou Dobbs?
I've tried to remain at least agnostic on the PPT/manipulation thing. But today we've had three weird bounces off the previous close... a pattern I see a lot lately. Market takes a sharp dive, to within 5 points of yesterday's close, and then rockets back up. I'm open to other explanations... but it really smells.
Sorry for the OT.
Yes the pondscum oil industry have to return the favor to the Bush/Cheney cabal for no bid Iraq oil contracts.
However, of the 90 million offshore acres the industry has leases to the oil industry is only drilling on just a fraction of areas it already has access and these cocksuckers have the audacity to press to open up more U.S. areas for drilling before Bush/Cheney run out the clock.
as in the comm. trades, not the controllers of the good.
MS, GS et al. are plowing those comm. profits into themselves...
Ciao
MS
Wah, wah, wah.
The market didn't go my way. I didn't get filled on my order or I don't like where my order filled. Everything is a conspiracy by market makers or bankers.
When options go my way then the market works and when they don't it's everyone else's fault but mine. Everybody else is mistaken - it is most definitely not me.
And people still believe the markets are not manipulated. It's really very simple...when you (insolvent banks) all need "up" there doesn't have to be much coordination now does there?
Especially with the oil trade coming off it's not rocker science as to where they are putting that profit. But I guess the "all clear" sign has been given...
Shameful really...
Ciao
MS
Keep talking DB.....
Ciao
MS
You are witnessing the greatest govt.-engineered manipulation of financial markets of all time.
It's been getting more and more orchestrated since March. It tells you they are deathly afraid of a market crash. But the bubble they are blowing, especially in speculative, leveraged, equities, will eventually produce one of the biggest crashes of all time.
If you want to see where unmanipulated markets are valued today, watch the FTSE. The U.S. market eventually will fall below the FTSE in overreaction and panic.
Re: I'm open to other explanations... but it really smells.
Take it down, buy back cheaper, go short, buy back cheap, run it up, sell, nice loop fueled by oil manipulation!
Order did'nt get filled because I refuse to be ripped off. If that's not "going my way" then I guess you've got a little more to learn.
I guess you like being ripped off or manipulated....
Ciao
MS
Apple is one of the few co's whose products and financial statements you can rely on these days. They're growing by leaps and bounds. They're down 4%, while Wachovia is up 25%. Go figure!
Bond market said "bear trap" this morning. It's usually pretty good about these kind of things I've noticed.
I really owe you guys a big vote of thanks. Your unrelenting gloom and negativity have finally worn everybody out to the point that the market no longer cares and goes up more the worse the news gets. My chasing the bear away in the woods last week didn't hurt either.
Warning to you all-I will be back in the woods again shortly.
"an estimated 22 percent emerge from the foreclosure process by bringing their payments current.... A year ago it was 52 percent."
Definately a declining trend. At least it can't go below 0%.
Are you sure about that?
Km4,
I know. The GOP really sucks right now. They should burn in hell, me included.
Money rushing out of commodities straight into banks to squeeze shorts and get extra juice out of the market. Yum. Short blood.
Lots of REO not yet listed on the MLS. In Santa Rosa for instance 446 properties are listed on the MLS with maybe 50% in escrow but 414 REO wanting to get on the MLS either due to paper work issues, rehab etc. The not on MLS REO's are also not counted on the inventory yet.
In other words, we can save Fannie and Freddie for the equivalent cost of two months in Iraq. Can you conceive of what else we could do if we had not spent the past 63 months there.
Stsimons-We should have at least stolen some antiquities like the British and French did.
Fellow Cali dudes...this will help!
July 22 (Bloomberg) -- Merrill Lynch & Co. economists clipped their forecasts for U.S. growth, making revisions that they described as ``adjusting to the new reality.''
``Just like consumers, who are insulating their windows and making fewer trips to the malls, we are adjusting our economic forecasts to the new high-oil-price reality, not to mention the latest round of trauma in the mortgage markets,'' New York-based economists Sheryl King and Drew Matus wrote in a report.
The chart of the day shows the quarterly change in U.S. gross domestic product in green, with the annualized figure in red. Merrill now expects the economy to contract by 0.5 percent in 2009, after previously forecasting growth of 0.5 percent.
Someone want to tell these guys it is not a "new reality." Myopia, delusion, or deception?
The Tulsa-based SemGroup shorted NYMEX crude oil futures to hedge against a decline in the value of the oil it purchased as part of its 500,000-barrel-per-day trading business, according to court documents, before surging crude prices forced it to recognize billions of dollars in losses on futures positions.
SemGroup was forced to recognize a $2.4 billion loss on July 16 after it transferred its NYMEX trading account to Barclays Plc (LSE:BARC.L - News). The firm had been recognizing this position as "loss contingencies," according to its bankruptcy filing in Delaware federal court
so much for mtm
The combination of high rates of NOD's going into foreclosure plus the large number of REO existing but not on the MLS yet added to the bottom of the barrel REO currently on the market that nobody wants equals high inventory ahead.
MS-
The last two firms I worked for - one was a market making firm that trades 3% of all the listed equity option volume in the US. The other firm was a hedge fund that trades about 2.3% of all listed equity option volume and cross the bid/ask spread all day long like a customer. So I've traded on both sides and I can guarantee you that you have ZERO clue what you're talking about when it comes to equity options.
I recommended a book to you in an effort to help. Obviously you couldn't care less, you'd rather just rant on here all day about your conspiracy theories.
Grade: F-
I'm with Barely on the explanation for strange bounces in the stocks. A lot of short term traders pile onto short squeezes. It takes quite a while to unwind short interest and this results in violent bounces during a bear market. Short term traders are going long, but I don't think that it's time yet to move retirement funds back into the market. Bottom feeders/value investors have gotten burned every few months for the past few years trying to find a bottom in the housing market.
since I know nothing according to you I guess my bank account growing by the week also "knows nothing"...
Please raise your hand if this is your day job??
Thanks for playing.
Asshole.
Ciao
MS
Although 121,341 default notices were filed last quarter, they involved 118,020 homes because some borrowers were in default on multiple loans (e.g. a primary mortgage and a line of credit).
CR, 3% of default notices from HELOCs seems a bit low. I thought the actual number of defaulted HELOCs would be close to the first mortgages, especially in CA. Is there any explanation for that metric?
Thanks,
You are witnessing the greatest govt.-engineered manipulation of financial markets of all time.
I don't think it's government engineered because mortgage bond yields have been soaring with these rallies. I just don't see them manipulating the markets in a way that makes bond yields go up 5-10 bps a day. It exacerbates the credit crisis, puts more stress on Fannie and Freddie, and increases govt borrowing costs.
If only 22% of them emerge from foreclosure that makes about 100k foreclosed homes on the market this past quarter. How many homes in total sold last quarter in CA? The ratio of inventory of foreclosure homes to any sales must be an incredibly high number (as the foreclosure inventory keeps building on itself in ever increasing huge numbers) let alone when you include all the inventory. Bummer, dudes.
Thank God for the Bell today!
I recommended a book to you in an effort to help. Obviously you couldn't care less, you'd rather just rant on here all day about your conspiracy theories.
Grade: F-
Gamma
You mind reiterating that recommendation?
I'll read it.
lama,
I was thinking the same thing. That seems way low.
"I don't think it's government engineered because mortgage bond yields have been soaring with these rallies."
IMO, they are far more worried about primary dealers than mortgage bond yields. One crisis can occur in an instant...the other will take years to play out.
CNBC currently has an article, titled "Home Prices Keep Falling, Prolonging Financial Crisis. Great! They should artificially prop home prices to save us all from this mess.
And what will probably be the biggest problem of them all, all the neg am option arms, start resetting in five, four, three, two.....
Paulson predicted we'd have 500,000 new jobs created in the second half of 2008.
Now he says the housing bottom is just months away.
As Karl Rove once said. when predicting Republican victory in the 2006 elections, "You have your math and I have my math"
I'm sticking with my math, thanks.
gamma-
You must have had such a HUGE success in your former job that you are now on a blog comment section handing out advice...keep in mind it's a FORMER job.
I'll take my profits from "knowing nothing" over yet another attempt at making yourself appear smarter than you are.
Books are theory my friend...just like your advice.
Ciao
MS
My understanding is that every Californian was using his/her home equity line of credit credit card just to everything including Slurpees, candy bars, plastic surgery, vacations, cars, and mortgage payments over the last 5 years. It seems highly likely that anyone defaulting right now has a second mortgage and a HELOC behind it.
lama asked: "Is there any explanation for that metric?"
I don't know how widespread it is, but in many cases the second lien holder just doesn't bother to foreclose. It costs money to foreclose, and if there's zero to be obtained - why bother?
How long until WaMu releases?
Lama,
HELOC's are normally in a 2nd lien position. Why bother filing a NOD when the value of the house completely wipes out the 2nd and eats into the 1st. HELOC's are letting the 1st foreclose. Whether they start trying to come after borrowers where there is recourse remains to be seen...
barely writes:
"Money rushing out of commodities straight into banks to squeeze shorts and get extra juice out of the market. Yum. Short blood."
more like a rush to a strong resistance level (XLF) in a spectacular "pump and dump" move. Good short traders covered 6 days ago what they cared to cover, plus were likely taking profits during the slide before that. you would have to be pretty naive to cover (XLF) now if you have not done it before.
The bottom of the day for crude seems had been reached before noon, and price has been up 1-2 since then.
As usual reasond for market moves has nothing to do with reality.
WaMu $6+ lost.
Makes me want to buy XLF.
Elvis: I think you are spot on. In my experience, conservative people ran HELOCs and improved the value of their home with windows, kitchens and whatnot. The carefree or stupid people went to Italy and bought toys. But I rarely heard of anyone sitting it out entirely.
Oops Terry beat me to it..
How long until WaMu releases?
Out now missed "profit" and revenue. better question is how long until insolvency?
An appropriate headline from MarketWatch:
U.S. stocks rally to higher close as financials shit gears
WaMu Reports Significant Build-Up of Reserves Contributing to Second Quarter Net Loss of $3.3 Billio
Check this title out on Marketwatch:
"U.S. stocks rally to higher close as financials shit gears"
U.S. stocks close sharply higher as financials shift gears - MarketWatch
Freudian slip?
It's the 2nd half recovery! Everybody panic!
It doesn't look that bad. '08 is probably going to be only 10-12 "lines" higher than '07.
Looks like the street expected -$1.05/share...
Have to agree with MS. I mean you'd have to be mentally challenged to not connect the market events to Fed rate cuts...
marketwatch writer's in a hurry to get a headline out before WM reported.....beat them by 2 minutes it seems.....however;-)
Ciao
MS
but Tim......I "know Nothing"
Ciao
MS
GH, That is hilarious. Perfect.
They changed it to "shift."
Tomorrow's headline:
WaMu's turnaround sparks a rally in financials.
or
WaMu's turnaround causes causes entire sector to shit
BILLIONAIRE BAG HOLDER
Assured Review by Moody's Isn't Justified, Ross Says
Billionaire investor Wilbur Ross said Assured Guaranty Ltd. doesn't need to raise additional capital and that he plans to talk with Moody's Investors Service about its review of the bond insurer's Aaa rating.
Ross, who committed to invest as much as $1 billion in Assured Guaranty in February and took a seat on its board, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television that he's speaking with investors to allay their concerns
What is the apples to apples comparison of WaMu Actuals to the -1.05/share EPS prediction? Is it really a loss of $6.58 per share?
I would really like to hear a mea culpa from the 2 dozen or so people who said this time yesterday that the market would be down big. I'm holding my breath, now turning blue...
Excluding one-time items, the lender said earnings per share would have been $3.34 in the second quarter.
per Marketwatch article
Aheadofthecurve
By the end of the week the market will be lower than we are today...
I wonder how much a filing for default would cost? Why not file it if the fee is low? Even without the house, there's a judgement against the borrower.
Ms would you buy more LEH puts?
Nice bounce in the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index. The VIX & VXO dropped like bricks. It must have caused the shorts run for their lives and to feel thankful that they got out with their skins. Poor shorties, I truly feel for them...
Was today an opportunity for the smart money to load up on shares at these incredible fire sale price levels? Probably not.
Was this an opportunity for someone to buy puts (with the VIX and company dropping like bricks)? Maybe, especially if they still have inventory to get rid of.
I don't know what's going to happen, but the short side seems like a pretty safe bet to me for now. If this "rally" fizzles badly this week, then I expect further downside. Let me explain: I'm looking at the weekly NYSE Composite with the 200 day SMA and EMA plotted. If we close the week below them, then sayonara!
So they had 1-time adjustments of $9.92 per share? Unreal! You mean if they didn't have a bunch of negative amortizing loans that were going south they could keep reporting a huge profit on the interest?
Check out the WM numbers at:
WaMu Reports
Tuesday July 22, 4:11 pm ET
Company Increases Capital Levels
Company Expects to Reduce Expenses by $1 billion
[snip]
Anyone catch Boston Properties (BXP) report yet?
slightly behind-I don't recall your prediction from yesterday. If you called within 5 points of today's close, then I bow to you. If not, then your prediction goes into the files. Don't call us, we'll call you.
Lama "Even without the house, there's a judgement against the borrower."
Exactly. Why pay all of the legal costs of filing a NOD, let the 1st do all the dirty work and you can sue after FC.
IMO, this is something that isn't talked about nearly enough - how many CA residents that HELOC'd the hell out of their house are going to be chased into bankruptcy over their 2nd's looking for payment...
"Covered bonds achieve higher ratings than regular notes by augmenting the issuer's pledge to pay with a group of assets such as mortgages that can be sold in a default. The extra security allows lenders to pay less interest."
If the financial rally continues it will tell me things may be turning in favor of the financials, and I'll guess it's that Ben and Hank have set the stage for the looting of the GSEs, and the gradual acquisition of the mortgage market by the banks, who also gain a liquidity window through the emergence of the covered bond market. It's a potentially big change, and I expect my grandchildren will learn about it when their history teacher compares the corruption of the Harding administration with that of Bush 2.
Just a quick responce to today's financial moves.
Aheadofthecurve,
20 day moving average was 1269. A Pierce of these levels usually siganls a short term reverse. I think we trade sharply lower tomorrow as oil "mysteriously" rebounds.
lazy smurf amused me with: "how many CA residents that HELOC'd the hell out of their house are going to be chased into bankruptcy over their 2nd's looking for payment..."
Only the lawyers will win in the end.
The condo that I rent is being foreclosed (St. Petersburg) by the first lien holder. Nary a peep from the purchase money HELOC second lien holder.
Aheadofthecurve
Oh yeah and Wamu will be down tomorrow
Tim: I'll check back tomorrow. My guess is that anyone who really KNEW what the market was going to do in advance would be on their yacht in the Mediterranean and wouldn't come on here to share their insights with the unwahsed like you and me. At least that's where I'd be...
So what's your prediction, AOTC? Can't really get down on those who offer them without one of your own...
Am I reading this right--Wamu's non-performing loan percentage is 40 basis points higher than their interest spread?
Not a sustainable business model, if you ask me....
Doggy-Sure I can. I didn't ask for their predictions. Most here offer them with enormous, generally unjustified confidence. Humility is called for.
Tim-
MS will buy more LEH puts and he will bitch when they don't go up in price as much as he thinks they should. He'll justify that he knows what he's doing because he'll have made some money, but yet he'll bitch that it's the market makers fault that he didn't make what he "should have".
After all it was the market maker who told him which month and strike to buy, what stock to buy it on, when to buy it, and hey - it's the market maker who rrrrrrrreally cares about his 10 lot order and is spending all day trying to figure out how to screw the guy with the 10 lot.
Hey MS - You might not be aware but people leave jobs alllll the time for because of compensation, the ability to telecommute, work environment and oh yeah, compensation. Comp is worth mentioning twice because it's what counts the most.
Thought I smelled a bear trap this morning.
Mister Schumacher (or "Skumacher" as David Hobbs likes to say):
You are being called out. It is time for a portfolio-off. Post your portfolio today, tomorrow, and for the next 180 days. I will post mine, and mine will be the guaranteed winner over the 180-day-timeframe.
Hell, I'll even give you advance knowledge of what every single one of my next 180 posts is:
"7/21: 100% VCTXX."
"7/22: 100% VCTXX."
"7/23: 100% VCTXX."
etc etc.
Personally, I'm hoping you go back to trying to race your motorbikes, since your presence in the paddock this past weekend did jack shit for the team.
Aheadofthecurve writes:
Doggy-Sure I can. I didn't ask for their predictions. Most here offer them with enormous, generally unjustified confidence.
I have no interest in "offering" predictions (especially the "offer" part). But any little comment on market action obviously includes opinion. Example: obviously we are getting close to significant resistance, GS is already close to 190 pivot area and the volume peak today in the last 25 min. was on no price advance = churning=dump, which does not mean it wont scramble higher.
Personally I am not too interested in catching the very top, I'll wait for signs of reversal on VIX and XLF at least.
(2 days ago I said I was playing a short term bounce of SKF from 130s higher, but I thought that 130 was not likely to hold in the end).
Let these guys have all the rope they want and hang themselves "solidly
Hey Genevieve,
Looks like you got a good bounce before SKF headed back down. Congrats.
where'd you finish Kimi???
thought so..
Gamma-
get over yourself.....I do this for MY job I work out of MY house paid for by MY job.
"compensation counts the most"
Yea forget about quality of life, happiness, ability to travel where you want when you want...you know silly things like that. I'll keep that in mind when I'm in Las Vegas next week spending some of that money that I "know nothing" about.
If I was doing lots of ten I'd be in your shoes with a "former job"....
Thanks for playing
Ciao
MS
i know someone who bought a couple of months ago using the seller's agent... i think they see in the news that things are bad, it's time to buy. then they just buy without doing their homework.
1270 trade around...
a week or so.
Jack, the realtor was right. "Buy now while there still are some people living in the neighborhood."
Yeah, Hi there CR, this is your agent. So, I've been thinking about your graphs. I think you need to add a little pop to the charts if you ever want to make it into USA Today. Let me know what you think about this one...
http://thumbsnap.com/v/Tn6t1MXX.jpg
thanks Man-moth. (if) we are entering very volatile sideway action it is back to very detailed trading plans and enhanced discipline... tough
In Fla, heloc holders get foreclosed out all the time and they DO NOTHING.
They do not get deficiency judgments, they do not sue the borrowers. They do nothing.
This must be about the 10th time I've posted this.
No Deficiency Judgments. No suits.
None, nada. Waste of time. Uncollectable. Etc, etc, etc.
And just who is going to finance these REOs, humh? No lender is lending to anybody with the slightest ding to their credit. If nobody emerges to finance the sales, then the price plunge will be incredible because all you will have left is a few cash buyers, and people wanting to buy so badly they will pay 10-12%.
Which is to say, hardly anybody.
Been talking a lot to a hard equity mtg broker. He's doing just fine.
There are virtually NO prime loans to anybody, no matter what their credit score, no matter how much down payment in Florida today.
We are all hard equity now. . .
I feel like I am sitting around waiting for the end of the world. If it's gonna end, it should end already and be done with it.
However, I have noticed that when one of my client's businesses goes irretrivably bad, it usually take a year and a half of agony until the business actually goes under. Since that started for the economy in about Aug or Sept of last year, the end will be a year and a half until the End, if my rule of thumb holds true.
That is to say, until the next administration gets sworn in.
smurf,
Can these receivables be assigned? With the types of garbage collections agencies go after, I could certainly see them going after a HELOC in default.
The LA Times has a list up of the zip codes hit hardest in Q2 2008.
SoCal home sales, prices and foreclosures -- latimes.com
As I suspected, mostly middle-higher end neighborhoods. Glendale, Rancho Palos Verdes, Malibu, Newport Coast, Laguna Beach.
Late to thread but On Topic...
Gernerally Oakland is being devestated by REO sales, concenrated in the lower-priced areas. Homes going for 35% of (not off) the previous high.
My neighborhood, however, (median home price ~$900k) has held up fairly well, with prices flat to down 10%.
Now...two homes nearby have Sale Pending signs after less than one week on the market, one of them, I'm told by the owner, had three offers "well above asking."
I can't 'splain it. Maybe someone else can.
Pico:
Seeing the same thing and it's baffling:
Some zips of Berkeley, Piedmont, Alameda are showing SOLD over the asking price?!? Really? Unless the ask price is really off to the low side - who the hell would overbid with all this inventory sloshing around??
To your point about 35% of (not off):
Yep - looking at a deal right now - $45k for a little shack... that previously sold for $260k 24 months ago. And I'm still not sure I want to mess with it for even this price.
And I still keep saying that there is a ton of Phantom Inventory out there waiting in the wings. There is stuff that just came up on the MLS this week, but the lender foreclosed April 2007. And let's not even get into all the stuff in default that the lenders aren't even filing NODs on. They'd rather have a non-performing rather than a non-performing AND liability (tax, HOA, fire, theft, vandalism, squatting, blight ordinances of the city, etc.)