o more negativity! ! ! Wink

..................

On a positive note I just called the Apple store and the line for iPhones is only 3.5 hours long....

Its a good thing that CR always labels his graphs as "probable recession" because there's no recession here!

.................

High-end L.A. market is starting to tumble. Losses of $5k-10k a WEEK.

We need an FHASupraSecure (FHA-SS) to insure loans up to $2.5 million. Problem solved!

I was looking at Scottsdale Sunday also, and went to craigslist to look at prices and the rental market is exploding for very high priced homes.

Also, always good to go over inventory and not double or triple count like NAR: NAR Inventory Methodology, or Lack Thereof - Housing Doom

L.A. High End starting to tumble? Where does your high end start? Century City now has comps in the $2,800 psf range.

Condo market in Santa Barbara is definitely coming down. SFR market still trying to fight the good fight. Still seeing 45yo tract homes in Goleta asking $550+/sq ft. Also starting to see some short sales and empty houses with brown lawns in a few neighborhoods.

So SKF is a basket of short financial stocks? Does a drop to zero indicate a stop loss at some pre-determined price for every stock in the basket?

Where does your high end start?

I think you need at least 4000 sq/ft no matter the cost

I would think that Craigslist is so predominant in the home rental market that rents could effectly be manipulated downwards by flooding it with fake postings. Does nayone else think this could be done to lower rents in a specific area?

I dunno, it's anecdotal, but I think the $20M+ range is holding up pretty well in L.A.

Weird, just like market for high end art. Hmmm.....

I think they need to put some corn in that crack.

Repost from earlier thread, appropriate here...

Generally Oakland is being devastated by REO sales, concentrated in the lower-priced areas. Homes going for 35% of (not off) the previous high.

My neighborhood, however, (median home price ~$900k) has held up fairly well, with prices flat to down 10%.

Now...two homes nearby have Sale Pending signs after less than one week on the market, one of them, I'm told by the owner, had three offers "well above asking."

I can't 'splain it. Maybe someone else can.

Maybe it IS different here.

ades, good point. I went to the local Apple store a couple days ago - and I had to ask if there was some sort of run on the store. It looked like a line for a hit movie!

Best Wishes.

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Anybody know or want to comment on the Las Vegas housing market.

Minister of Truth?

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SeattleSu

High end art, indeed, Warhol took away the title from Picasso, which is kinda sad, but there is a time quality and generational shift, I think Warhol's latest record is like..

"The sale’s highlight was Andy Warhol’s epic Green Car Crash (Green Burning Car I) which sold for $71.7 million."

Stuff that in yer homemade hookah!

So SKF is a basket of short financial stocks? Does a drop to zero indicate a stop loss at some pre-determined price for every stock in the basket

Steph, it's not actually literally short; it uses derivatives to attempt to deliver 2x the inverse performance of the financial sector. Its counterparties probably short dynamically to hedge their own risk and make money off fees. Its exposure in dollar terms will grow as the financials drop, and shrink as they rise.

I believe a drop to zero would imply an undefined price, which is kinda Zen to think about.

You know when the highend is smoking crack things are getting bad. Wonder if Ms. Houston is on the whack crack yet.

Danny,

Is that anecdotal, or do you have specific numbers/examples? Also, which neighborhoods/cities are you specifically referencing (i.e. Santa Monica, BH, Hollywood Hills, Manhattan Beach etc.)? Thanks

Gatsby:

Go to latimesblogs.latimes.com/laland and search through recent posts. They do a great job of tracking everything residential re related in L.A.

"The sale’s highlight was Andy Warhol’s epic Green Car Crash (Green Burning Car I) which sold for $71.7 million."

I was thinking that I would prefer a Laguna Beach estate for $70M, but there would be much less upkeep with a painting (unless Steve Wynn puts his arm through it... rofl)

I thought the high side crack was called cleavage.

If you build it they will come...and default all over it.

Every valley neighborhood has problems...Sheesh!

Cheers,

I wouldn't rent a house in Phoenix without doing a thorough credit check on the landlord

Bits,

Good one! LOL.

Cheers,

High end in Silicon Valley is not cracking, as of yet. But I notice that Santa Clara County ranks 2nd amongst Bay Area counties (trailing only Sonoma County) in the rate of increase of NODs for Q2.

For Trustees Deeds Recorded, nobody can touch us! The YoY change for Santa Clara county was 512%.

That's gotta catch up with the high end at some point, just like it is in now in Denver and Phoenix.

If a new specuvestor sold a $250K house for a $50K profit back in 2005, they naturally thought, "hey I coulda made double if I had bought a $500K place...or quadruple with a million dollar box". This is the bad wave, the 30-40% of houses sold in 2005 to "second home owners" that are starting to go bad. This is no joke.

But, anyways, Batman set a record at the box office, so we must've hit bottom, right?

Was talking to a mega apple nerd and he was saying they can't keep the iPhone in stock due to production issues, you have to get on a list just to get one in a couple of weeks, supposedly.

Apple fan boys never cease to amaze me. It's a cult I tells ya!

I mean I do have an Mac OSX server, but the fan boys...GAH!

Cheers,

SeattleSun, substitue Las Vegas everytime you see Phoenix in the linked article and you have your answer. Birds of a feather, those two towns.

So SKF is a basket of short financial stocks? Does a drop to zero indicate a stop loss at some pre-determined price for every stock in the basket

Steph, it's not actually literally short; it uses derivatives to attempt to deliver 2x the inverse performance of the financial sector. Its counterparties probably short dynamically to hedge their own risk and make money off fees. Its exposure in dollar terms will grow as the financials drop, and shrink as they rise.

I believe a drop to zero would imply an undefined price, which is kinda Zen to think about.

Thanks for the clarificaton. SKF looks tempting. Just cant understand the buying in financials this week with all te bad news. I live in L.A. and my neighborhood is still over valued by 50% to get back to historical norms of affordability. The banks problems are far from over...

Just cant understand the buying in financials this week with all te bad news.

Just my humble opinion, but I think we're trying to price in the Fed being able to monetize enough bad debts to keep the banks alive since the price of oil is retreating some from its apex. That, and they're difficult to short now thanks to the SEC. Laughing out loud

Fundamentally, you're absolutely right that business is ghastly, would be more ghastly without condoned accounting silliness, and will get more ghastly as house prices finish their mean reversion. However, the fundamentals only really matter if oil is stubbornly high.

Bush's 12-Step Economic Analysis

"Wall Street got drunk ---that's one of the reasons I asked you to turn off the TV cameras --- it got drunk and now it's got a hangover."

video here:

Talking Points Memo | Bush's 12-Step Economic Analysis

Good news all: The President has it all figured out.

YouTube -

"Wall Street got drunk and now it's got a hangover."

Sorry...that took me a long time to post. Wow. Good weed.

Im so confused. It appears I got that from here, got turned around, and attempted to share it here.

Goodnight.

CSC: Go hit the taco bell, pick up some doritos at 7-11, and take a nice bubble bath.

Boston seeing some major problems at the higher (above median listing price) end. Most towns have several years worth of inventory based on the last three months worth of sales.

Anecdotally, I'm hearing that the only buyers are ridiculously qualified renters with lotsa cash buying the lowest priced homes. Supposedly, they would have qualified for double during the boom.

In general, God help you if you are trying to sell a $650,000 or more house in metro Boston right now...

One of the two markets I've been looking in has just started to crack. I'm starting to see properties where buying is cheaper than renting in my tax bracket. In fact, I may put an offer in on one this weekend even though I know that we haven't hit bottom because I really like the location and places in this location don't come up often. Besides, I'll only be half as big a fool as the last guy to buy it.

Oh, yeah, I forgot to mention I'm looking in the southern exurbs of San Jose.

A few months ago we stopped by a few homes in Metro-West Boston. In one neighborhood there were very similar houses. One was selling through a realtor and the other FSBO. The realtor house was listed at $489k. The FSBO was recently marked down from $689 to $629. Is anyone else seeing this? That is, many FSBOs are just people who didn't like the price the realtor suggested, so they're trying to get that cash-rich person who will pay 2005 prices (a ghost)?

Winston,

Mind if I ask, what town/area in San Jose is this gem?

"High-end L.A. market is starting to tumble. Losses of $5k-10k a WEEK."

Come on Danny! Ya can't just post something like that without attribution/details, anecdotal or not. It's just plain mean! Smile

The new building next to mine on the Upper East Side currently has two tennants of a possible 40. The building has been complete for a couple of months now, and the developer has been marketing it heavily for the last year.

Six other (mostly much bigger) buildings are going up within a ten block radius, all of them even more high end than the one next to me. 2BRs starting from $1.5mm. Yikes, it's gonna get real ugly in NYC quite soon.

I was looking at luxury high rises in Phoenix last year and found realtors skittish about penetrating questions. I never could get a clear picture of how many units were unsold, or how many were actually up for sale, or others necessary info. I suspect lots of those buildings are sitting half occupied or less. In any case I gave up any idea of buying because of the lack of clear info.

OT: somewhat. Dan Radcliffe, boy wizard, spent about 5 million of his fortune on a very outre very modern apartment in NYC. It was said he intended to rent it out for $20,000 a month. I would be curious to know if it has been rented. (He later bought another apartment about as expensive, supposedly to live in when he comes in the fall to do Equus.) $240,000 per year on a capital cost of 5 million would be less than a 5% return. Is this normal for NYC?

Correction, I just checked and his outlay for the apartment was 4.3 million, not 5. So $240,000 per year in rent would be a rough return of about 5.5%.

Not many cracks at the really high end in La La land.

From Real Estalker blogsite:

Well children, now we know why ridiculously rich Hollywood widow Candy Spelling has been looking to unload some of her real estate holdings of late...she's downsizing. The lavish living ladee just forked over a record breaking $47,000,000 to buy the top two floors of a yet to be completed A.M. Stern designed building called The Century currently rising on Avenue of the Stars in Century City. For those not overly familiar with the lay of L.A. Land, Century City is a glittering and puny pocket of tall towers that sits south of Santa Monica Boulevard and between Bev Hills and Westwood Village.

Miz Spellings dee-luxe doo-plex will span about 16,000 square feet with 360 degree views from downtown Los Angeles to Catalina Island. Not surprisingly, the reported $2,848 per square foot price sets a record for a Los Angeles condominium.

The pampered and polished Mis Spelling has purchased her giant con-doe early enough in the construction process that she will be able to bring in her own architects and designers to finish her 41st and 42nd floor aerie. A few of the high-priced details of her new digs were reported in the Los Angeles Times and include a living room with two working fireplaces, a bizarrely large 4,000 square foot master bedroom, a massage room, exercise room, and conservatory that will feature a damn rose garden as well as an indoor swimming pool that will open to a terrace. Oh it's nice to be rich, ain't it children? Your Mama imagines that Miz Spelling's team of people will somehow manage to squeeze a gift wrapping room into the plan too because let's be honest, once you've become accustomed to having a gift wrapping room or two, you simply can not live without one.

We suppose this big buy means we'll start hearing whispers and rumors about the sixty something year old's 123-room mega mansion–dubbed The Manor–on S. Mapleton Drive going on the market. In fact Miz Spelling's attorney, a gentleman named Stephen Goldberg, is quoted saying that the woman with a penchant for all things glam often receives "feelers" and expressions of interest from potential buyers for her 11 bedroom and 16 bathroom behemoth including one filthy rich party who "promised nine figures and change plus a jet." Well good for her, because no matter how you slice it, decorate it, or keep it up, 56,000+ square feet is a lonely amount of space for just one person.

Short Courage:

Santa Cruz, so well south.

"Boston seeing some major problems at the higher (above median listing price) end. Most towns have several years worth of inventory based on the last three months worth of sales."

Id be curious to know where these houses are as related to jobs. In the DC market, high end (but long commute) Loudon County fell a long time ago. By contrast, high end (but close in) Arlington County still has less than 5 months of inventory!

Thus far I have heard the same thing in other cities, "high end" far away communities getting clobbered, but "high end" close in communities are holding up. It would be interesting if Boston is now breaking that mold.

Winston - do you have any sense of the mkt in Capitola? Been looking there on and off for years.

Thanks in advance.

The comment about Ms Spelling brought to mind a conversation I had with a guy who was intalling systems in a large house up here - 11000 sq ft. The owners were visiting the almost finished construction when the wife approached him saying: I lost! Help me find my husband!

gab,

I haven't looked much in Capitola. I did accidentally notice that some of the lower end properties that way have fallen to early bubble prices. What has fallen off a cliff is the low end properties in the Santa Cruz mountains. Fortunately for me, I like the mountains.

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