in addition to Prospec Byrs being under 50, the Nxt 6 mnths figure has cratered even more dramatically - if it stays that way Oct, the bubble pop is past nigh
Per CNBC right now, something called DLA reports that about 3/4 of those surveyed expect that the boom is over. (Since over 71% expect that the market will stay "flat," I have to assume that it is a vested interest speaking.)
I get it that Kat wrecked a lot of 'inventory' & displaced folks & businesses... but what I can't get is if the jobs are gone too (if only temporarily)... then why buy another house NOW!?!? Save the cash from the insurance and live on it for a while... at least until they know business is back strong enough to support revenue & payroll. I mean if I had been rolled up by Katy... I'd hunker down until I knew what was going on... run my biz from a laptop & cell phone, use remote offsite warehouses & such as much as possible... & live in a rental or even & hotel. Maybe even an RV... but absolutely NOT lock in to anything even semi-permanent until I had a better feel for what was coming.
But what the f*ck do I know... I just run a small business... for over 20 years.
Tanta, uh I mean, Dr. Luck ... The FED hiked today so I guess they missed their first prediction.
I don't expect a housing "burst". I think the most likely scenario is rising inventories, followed by a fall in the number of transactions and then price declines over several years. We are already seeing rising inventories and I expect to see a fall in transactions soon.
I just saw Jim Cramer say that housing peaked in January ... Anybody know what data series' support that conclusion?
Also, does the condo market precede, lag, or track the single family home market?
I just saw Jim Cramer say that housing peaked in January ... Anybody know what data series' support that conclusion?
The fact that Cramer said we should buy back in January
Cramer was pumping Toll Brothers a few months back, right before it started it >10% decline. I hope his new prediction is more accurate.
CR - good catch, good post
in addition to Prospec Byrs being under 50, the Nxt 6 mnths figure has cratered even more dramatically - if it stays that way Oct, the bubble pop is past nigh
SE RE catches fire.
USATODAY.com - Already hot Southeastern real estate market blazes
Per CNBC right now, something called DLA reports that about 3/4 of those surveyed expect that the boom is over. (Since over 71% expect that the market will stay "flat," I have to assume that it is a vested interest speaking.)
The Housing Market Index (from the link) pretty much topped out in January. (June is higher, but June looks like an anomaly.)
Could be Cramer looked at that, though I admit being more inclined to believe erg's suggestion.
SE RE catches fire.
Quite an article vader...
I get it that Kat wrecked a lot of 'inventory' & displaced folks & businesses... but what I can't get is if the jobs are gone too (if only temporarily)... then why buy another house NOW!?!? Save the cash from the insurance and live on it for a while... at least until they know business is back strong enough to support revenue & payroll. I mean if I had been rolled up by Katy... I'd hunker down until I knew what was going on... run my biz from a laptop & cell phone, use remote offsite warehouses & such as much as possible... & live in a rental or even & hotel. Maybe even an RV... but absolutely NOT lock in to anything even semi-permanent until I had a better feel for what was coming.
But what the f*ck do I know... I just run a small business... for over 20 years.
Some idjit sent me this today:
Low Interest Rate Likely Delay Housing Bubble
The headline is amusing. I'm also going to change my name to Dr. Luck.
Tanta, uh I mean, Dr. Luck ... The FED hiked today so I guess they missed their first prediction.
I don't expect a housing "burst". I think the most likely scenario is rising inventories, followed by a fall in the number of transactions and then price declines over several years. We are already seeing rising inventories and I expect to see a fall in transactions soon.
Best to All.