Freddie Mac: Mortgage Rates Rise Sharply
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Thu, 07/24/2008 - 7:26am (148 comments)
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Bam, bam.. . the shots keep coming.
No doubt the Treasury yields will bump up some to close the gap. Nationalizing housing finance is good for mortgage borrowers but bad for government budgets.
It'll be interesting to see what price-point is reached for affordable housing to the growing number of unemployed Americans...Can we just legislate 4000 square feet and a mule law to every American?
To the moon, Alice!
This really oughtta help home sales.
tj & the bear writes:
NEW POST!!!
tj & the bear | 07.24.08 - 11:51 am | #
LOL ! !
...........
I though Bush watched cartoons on Saturday. I don't think it is realistic to believe he will leave Sponge Bob to sign a bill.
It was suggested on a previous blogging link that someone from The FDIC has greasy hair, is that true and if so, do any of you have a link and an email a DNS # to go along with an email address, and the balls to come over and tell that to my ass?
YouTube - Hair - Song Hair
despite his opposition to the inclusion of nearly $4 billion in grants for local governments to buy and refurbish foreclosed properties.
mooooon riverrrrr
The Bair Witch Project...coming to a blog near you.
Bring back Louis McFadden!
McFadden's Attempts to Abolish the Federal Reserve System :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting Free Website
Those aren't the only rates rising. Here is a bit from the Boston Properties call yesterday.
Ms Bair writes: "... tell that to my ass?"
You got a hairy ass, too?
OT - I just mentioned this last thread, but I find it surprising, to say the least, that natural gas has declined 30% from its peak - it's off 7.5% today - and no one's talking about it. In the past few months the topic of oil/gas has come up on this blog regularly, and the decline in the latter's price (substantially more than the former) should change some economic forecasts (ex: for inflation stats) as well as opinions of whether energy + other commodities were in an unsustainable "bubble-like" rise. Thoughts?
And now the content I linked too about cap rates going up:
If you take a 6.5% rate, for example, and you throw in a 25-year constant on that, a 25-year amortization schedule on that, you come up with a constant of about 8.2%. Now, if you need coverage, and today coverage is probably at a minimum 1.25, and probably is more normally 1.4 times initially, and you add a 1.25 coverage onto that 8.2 constant, then the necessary yield to cover debt jumps to over 10%.
So, while you might still be interested on people maybe pricing the assets at 5% cap rates, it's going to require an awful lot of equity in today's market to make those transactions work.
I would not think the spread would tighten. I think the marekt already expects the bill to pass. Fannie and Freddie stock prices reflect this. I dont think this will make much of a difference. Maybe the 400K people they save will vote for them in the elections in November.
Great news about nat gas for those of us who heat with it in the northeast. Still no good news for the oil heaters.
anon on natgas...
don't forget , brian hunter is a free man, and is trading. natgas will never be the same as long as his screens are flickering.
Ex–Amaranth Trader Brian Hunter Denies That He Is the Root of All Evil -- Daily Intel
"So, while you might still be interested on people maybe pricing the assets at 5% cap rates, it's going to require an awful lot of equity in today's market to make those transactions work."
Translation -- No more 5% cap rates and the REITs who bought at these cap rates will take a beating. Beating.
Anonymouse,
Commodities are indeed overpriced IMO). So are stocks & bonds.
In short, our national wealth is overstated. It will continue to fall to reflect reality.
That's my view.
Personally, I'm just waiting for Freddie Mac and Fanny Mae to throw money about in order to restore confidence in The White House.
Speaking of Natty Gas/Oil....just a coincidence that the drop off in both will help out the already skyrocketing PPI......Not a chance..
Anyone else see McCain give "credit" to bush for the drop off in oil prices??
By rescinding the drilling ban.......too funny. Psych. Ops. at it's finest.
Ciao
MS
Personally, I'm just waiting for Freddie Mac and Fanny Mae to throw money about in order to restore confidence in The White House.
There's simply not enough money supply to accomplish that.
Anonymouse | Homepage | 07.24.08
I posted down below...
Now go look at BakerHughes site and check out how many rigs are drilling for gas in the US. Look out below...
Chris
MBIA, Ambac Sued by Los Angeles on `Unnecessary' Bond Insurance
July 24 (Bloomberg) -- MBIA Inc., Ambac Financial Group Inc. and four other bond insurers were sued by Los Angeles for allegedly conspiring to maintain a credit-rating system that led local governments to buy ``unnecessary'' policies on their bonds.
City Attorney Rocky Delgadillo filed the lawsuit yesterday in Los Angeles Superior Court. The second-most populous U.S. city after New York says it is seeking to recover damages it endured by paying ``millions'' for guarantees that turned worthless when the insurers lost their top credit ratings....
Translation -- No more 5% cap rates and the REITs who bought at these cap rates will take a beating. Beating.
Seems to just be a matter of time. Here is another bit of interest. I love how they are refusing to rent space because they can't get the rent they want. And they just bought last year at the peak and quickly raised rents (when you used a 5% cap rate, you have to do that). Sounds like some homeowners we know, right? And for good measure we get some WaMu thrown in there too.
After climbing for years, are office lease rates in downtown Seattle getting ready to turn south?
Some commercial real-estate professionals think so. Consider this:
More than 2 million square feet of new office space the equivalent of 1 ½ Columbia Centers will come on the market in greater downtown next year. Almost none of it is pre-leased.
On top of that, there's the possibility many say the likelihood that downtown bastions Washington Mutual and Safeco could vacate some of the 1 million-plus square feet they collectively occupy.
For lease rates to drop downtown, he said, big institutional investors who bought millions of square feet in the region last year would need to go along and they have shown no inclination to do so. Those new owners quickly raised rents, and in some cases have chosen to leave space vacant rather than lease it for less.
The Dems are doing their darndest to keep oil prices up:
Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and other liberal leaders on Capitol Hill are gripped by cold-sweat terror. If they permit a vote on offshore drilling, they know they will lose when Blue Dogs and oil-patch Democrats defect to the GOP position of increasing domestic energy production. So the last failsafe is to shut down Congress.
Majority Leader Reid has decided that deliberation is too taxing for "the world's greatest deliberative body." This week he cut off serious energy amendments to his antispeculation bill. Then Senate Appropriations baron Robert Byrd abruptly canceled a bill markup planned for today where Republicans intended to press the issue. Mr. Byrd's counterpart in the House, David Obey, is enforcing a similar lockdown. Speaker Pelosi says she won't allow even a debate before Congress's August recess begins in eight days.
She and Mr. Reid are cornered by substance. The upward pressure on oil prices is caused by rising world-wide consumption and limited growth in supplies. Yet at least 65% of America's undiscovered, recoverable oil, and 40% of its natural gas, is hostage to the Congressional drilling moratorium.
Democrats Against Drilling - WSJ.com
Chris/Cobradriver,
I hadn't noticed the rig count. How low do you think natural gas can go? Can we see $5/Tcf within a year?
Anonymous | 07.24.08 - 12:09 pm | #
Is sbarrkum
Never liked Anonymous, makes me think of Agatha Christies Poison Pen letters
It will be interesting to see if the spread between the 30 year fixed rate mortgage and the ten year treasury declines after passage of the housing bill.
Given that passage of the bill was a given yesterday don't you think the market has already priced it in and the increased mortgage rate instead is due to the poor fundamentals of a declining housing market
Why should there be a spreed at all when you knock off the horse shit they are really going to be the same thing 100% explicitly backed by the printing press, may as well shoot for parity.
"Dad, I really am having a great time on our vaction to New York City. The Statue of Liberty was great. Central Park was fun. Today, we're on Wall Street...what is that rhythmic pounding I hear?"
"Oh, son, that is the new sound of Wall Street. It is the sound of the investors taking a beating. It is chilling yet melodic. Personally, I like it..."
"Well, maybe you do, but I preferred the sound of Maria Bartiroma having a daily on-air orgasm when the market was rolling."
"That's my boy."
Hey MS where do you think Wamu will be in a week?
Well, we've already burned up 85% of the countries original endowment of oil, we might as well burn up the last 15% as fast as we can. No need to like, save for future generations or future wars ya know.
Anonymouse | Homepage | 07.24.08
Honestly...I don't have a clue. I quit following prices 4 years ago when I left the cold in Ohio. All I know was I went from spending almost 4k to heat an 80 year old home to nothing in Florida...One thing that could keep prices from completely collapsing is the demand for gas electric generation...
Chris
UBS Is Sued by New York's Cuomo for Misleading Auction-Rate Debt Investors
- Bloomberg.com
Maria Bartiroma having a daily on-air orgasm
I've read about this but never witnessed it. Are there any YouTube clips or CNBC archives? They must have to replace here chair often.
The sea was angry that day my friends, like an old man trying to send back soup in a deli......
"Those new owners quickly raised rents, and in some cases have chosen to leave space vacant rather than lease it for less."
So is their play, to hope rents go up next year or are they just angry and rally looking to get upside down and taken over by the lender as fast as possible.
NNNs in Class A buildings are expensive. When tenants aren't occupying, the carry costs are brutal and sometimes devastating.
Ministry of Truth
UBS down 4%. Anyone think we go down over 200 points today?
"FlipThisHouse.gov writes: "
Look, they are nationalizing Flip This House to save housing bubble TV shows from cancellation because such shows are necessary for an orderly economy, according to Bernanke, Bair, and Paulson.
Later on in the article they had this line
But the downturn also could get so severe that developers of some of the new downtown buildings could lose them to their lenders, he added. "There's going to be some pain.
Brought back some memories of DC 20 years ago. "Thank you for playing, we'll be taking our building back now"
The Tour de Farging France is headlining the NYT? Jaysus.
UBS down 4%. Anyone think we go down over 200 points today?
No way WAMU is rallying right now.
This whole rate inflation thingy is gonna pound down home prices further.
The WS Banking System bail out...I think we'll need a bigger boat.
Cheers,
"Great news about nat gas for those of us who heat with it in the northeast. Still no good news for the oil heaters."
12th Percentile | 07.24.08 - 12:00
12th,
I still have a bunch o relatives in NE Ohio. 1 installed Geothermal this time last year. One just had a system installed last month. I have 4 more waiting. The installer is booked for almost 3!!!!! years out.
People are shifting but it takes time...
Chris
man-moth, it's subliminal.
we all need to be riding bikes to save fuel.
aleister perdurabo,
"No way WAMU is rallying right now."
Nah! They were falling so fast they created a pressure wave. That'll disipate quicker than Tues-Wed am one.
Cheers,
"I still have a bunch o relatives in NE Ohio."
I didn't realize there was any reason to live in NE Ohio anymore. Who knew people are still there?
market is shitting gears...
WaaaMu is CTD (circling the drain)
We need more structured financial products to transfer these temporary paper losses into realistic profits. The only thing stopping derivative growth is the misunderstanding that risk and reward are not properly correlated to assume underlying fundamental (saving grace) arbitrage. If it were not for a few greasy hair'd pigs standing guard at the floodgates, we could all get out of the barn and save America from the evil filth-like snakes that are called taxpayers!! WTF do these F'rs want from us anyway -- more hair grease, perhaps sympathy or vodka, who cares what they want, we here @ SIFMA are proud to be a part of The American Dream & Subprime MeltDown -- we like it both up and down, so come on over and take a look see at just a few of the fine new structured products that some of our boys have just dream'd up for ya'll...
Check Out The Ongoing And Potential Searches For High-Yield, CDO And Distressed Debt Manag ...
♥✿ ☼♥
The end of the 30 yr fixed rate is close at hand, fixed for 3yr,5yr,7yr with adj rates will probably be the only affordable products, investors will not provide money to the mortgage market at low rates and high risk for 30 yr terms, this will make the borrowers take on more risk but it seems the only way to provide long term money for the mortgage market.
cobra
My brother lives in maine. Oil heat. They keep their house COLD on principle and even so he is expecting to pay $1000 a month for heat this winter. He can afford it. Sadly, many long time mainers in their old farmhouses on fixed incomes can not. I don't feel so bad for people losing homes they never put money down on and that they couldn't afford. But people not being able to live in the house they own free and clear sucks.
"and the increased mortgage rate instead is due to the poor fundamentals of a declining housing market"
THere you go again Tim being logical..
Hey look they actually got WM above 4....watch some big unload just above it and then back below.
Ciao
MS
FYI: Minimum wage rises to $6.55 an hour starting today. Up $0.70 from $5.85 or a 12% increase.
@we all need to be riding bikes to save fuel.
lol
"The end of the 30 yr fixed rate is close at hand..."
Not so sure about that one.
I don't feel so bad for people losing homes they never put money down on and that they couldn't afford. But people not being able to live in the house they own free and clear sucks.
That really does SUCK! Our incentive system is SOOOO screwed up. Trash the dollar to save speculators and fools at the expense of others. What a tradgedy.
In a week?? No se....It all depends on how much defense it gets. If I had to guess (not with any money) based on price action.....lower...much lower.
But according to "some" here...I "know nothing".....
Knowing "nothing" sure has been profitable..
Ciao
MS
NY sues UBS.
A local company here in Albany, NY got burned on this. They just also laid off 1/3 of their staff.
New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo filed a civil lawsuit on Thursday against UBS AG (VTX:UBSN.VX - News), accusing the Swiss bank of steering customers into auction-rate securities that this year became impossible to cash out of amid the credit crunch.
"FYI: Minimum wage rises to $6.55 an hour starting today. Up $0.70 from $5.85 or a 12% increase."
Or roughly a gallon and a half of gas a day. Poverty is poverty whether it it is $5.85 or $6.55 or $9.00.
William wake up, drilling is not the answer. McCain is clueless on energy and our economy.
Robert Kennedy Jr said it well:
"Well if the solution to this issue which he suggested is really on the demand side. Its not about drilling offshore, which even the president has said the White House energy advisory administration has said thats not even going to touch our problems. We wont get the first oil from offshore until 2020 and well have an insignificant impact on prices in this country. We dont even know whether its going to be sold in this country.
First of all, even if we drilled every bit of oil on all of our public lands in Alaska, its less than 3 percent of proven global reserves. Were using less than 25 percent of proven oil reserves in our country in our oil. So we cant drill our way out of the problem.
The issue is a demand issue. We need to change demand and we do that by changing to other sources of to wind, to solar, to geothermal, to tidal and conservation.
The fastest way for us to solve our energy problems in this country is immediate conservation. If we improve fuel economy standards in our automobiles by one mile per gallon, we generate twice the oil thats in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. If we raise fuel economy standards by 7.6 miles per gallon, we can yield more oil than we are currently importing from the Persian Gulf."
...
"What we need is really a long-term and drilling off the coast is not a long-term energy policy. What we need is an energy policy. Today, Larry, we are borrowing a billion dollars a day mainly from countries that dont like us to import oil from countries that dont like us."
...
"The other point I would make is what John Stossel is saying, a free market would be good. We dont have a free market in the energy industry. Everybody knows that. We give a trillion a year in subsidies, direct and indirect subsidies, to oil, and somewhere near a trillion dollars to coal. We also nuclear energy is also highly subsidized. If we had a real free market that does what a market is supposed to do, which is to reward good behavior and punish bad behavior and inefficiency, wind, solar, geothermal and tidal would easily triumph in the marketplace. You would see them immediately taking over the marketplace. The biggest impediment is these huge subsidies were pouring into incumbents."
Anyone hear any news on Downey financial?
This guy's the best if anyone's in the market for a wood stove. Hell of a nice guy, too.
Antique Stove Hospital
BTW the rise off the low "looks" like shorts covering.....We'll see soon enough....shorts booking profit or actual buying in defense.
Ciao
MS
Anyone hear any news on Downey financial?
I heard they still suck.
Still, no orders coming in for a thin-crust with "extra anchovies". Not just yet, anyway.
WaMu 177 million shares. Whee
I actually thought homes sales were up in June, but I guess that's just in comparison to May. But that with the rising interest rates may bring my dream home to my dream price faster that I thought.
However I am still wary about how the whole economy is going to be looking in a couple years. Prices may be dropping. Even if we can afford a nice house in a couple years, I expect we'll all be feeling the pain of bad economic times in one way or another.
Tim,
"market is shitting gears..."
That sounds quite painful.
Cheers,
The dynamics of NG distribution are totally different than oil. U.S. does not import nearly as much NG as oil, and the gas we do import (other than LNG) is from Canada and Mexico. There is ungodly amounts of new gas drilling and production coming online now in east Texas, Arkansas, and Colorado. Soon, finds in a vast field centered in Western PA and stretching from WV to upstate NY will begin to come on line. There's also huge infrastructure development in NG drilling and pipeline. We don't face a national NG shortage, and prices of NG are probably going to collapse. The problem is that you can't run cars on NG.
Dividends Are An illusion!
Stop the collective whining about your lower yields and your paper losses and the temporary and mild discomfort of dividend decreases associated with the double whammy of inflation impacts and the ugly greasy hair'd sister of dividend reductions. Oh my God, what would you do if we really had problems, like banks closing and homes not selling, and higher inflation that is not masked by false and misleading data -- be thankful that America still has the ability to hide the truth! If America didn't have Bush, Congress, The Senate and every branch on the same page with this collusion, and if they did have trouble hiding the reality of how bad things really are -- well then, maybe you could cry and crawl on your fat greasy bellies and then whine about your third-rate, third-world status and your probably need for some hand out from some person that may be in a position to take pity. I mean, WTF, you all had it so good while the magic show was on and now you want your fuc-ing money back... just stop the whining, it used to get attention for babies, maybe 80 years ago -- not now!
market is shitting gears...
LOL. The only thing MW has actually contributed to the language.
I have played neither basketball for years. That means 100% of my basketball talent has been not utilized.
I don't think the world misses it.
PS: How the (bleep) can you know what pct of UNDISCOVERED oil is... well how can you know anything about something that you by definition don't know anything about?
Jesus.
Paging PPT, cleanup on isle 4.
The problem is that you can't run cars on NG.
Not so. The NJDOT has been running some of its vehicles on natural gas for years. Burns clean.
I learned something a long time ago. Oil and natural gas prices don't make a whole lot of sense. Therefore, I avoid trying to figure them out, because I will only be setting myself up for a trap. rich, what you say makes perfectly logical sense, but, in order to be right, natural gas prices would have to make perfectly logical sense. They really don't.
This shouldn't be happening today. Weren't the banks all upgraded by somebody this morning, especially Citi?
Doesn't UPS run NG trucks?
And some busses in CA?
Doesn't UPS run NG trucks?
Yes.
The problem is that you can't run cars on NG.
You can't? Is this webpage
fake?
Yeah, but everybody knows the legs fall off this financial rally, and nobody wants to be the last to hop off the bus. Now that the shorts can't create a short covering rally, things could get a little explosive. How about no buyers at any price?
"The problem is that you can't run cars on NG."
rich | 07.24.08 - 12:41 pm | #
Not without mods to current vehicles. I could go into a long drawn out technical dicussion but I'll leave it as "I can".
Chris
ron, i like that thought.
it's a question i've posed to this board before, that i'm not smart enough to tackle.
If we now have (soon, with senate passage and gwsignage) an EXPLICIT guarantee, of a taxpayer backed floor, who could argue that a low income TAX-Payer should suffer a higher rate than a Hi-income TAX-Payer.
U.S. Congressman Warns Major Economic Disaster Imminent
"Time is short for making a course correction before this grand experiment in liberty goes into deep hibernation, the U.S. Congress was told earlier this month. On July 9, Texas Rep. Ron Paul warned the House Financial Services Committee that big events were about to occur."
U.S. Congressman Warns Major Economic Disaster Imminent | theTrumpet.com by the Philadelphia Church of God
TCA all modern diesel cars can be converted to Natural Gas
Taxis in Vegas mostly use Natty...
I'll let you know after next week if it has become more widespread there....
Ciao
MS
Oil prices have a limit. NG, coal to liquids, biofuels, etc.
Even if peak oil is upon us (which I'm sceptical of) other sources of energy for cars exist.
Oil at 15$ was cheap. Oil at $140???
Not for me.
Ya know, I'll volunteer to trade my 1300 sq foot house and low low mortgage for a 4000 sq footer and a government subsidized loan.
I ought to get something for my tax dollars. "It's YOUR money", as Dubya said.
Angry-
Curious to know why you are skeptical of Peak oil?
This latest rise has nothing to do with it but Hubbert's Curve is very compelling...
Ciao
MS
donna,
4000 square foot homes are overrated. You have to clean them.
4000 square feet to clean, heat and cool. And you end up using the same 1500 sf most of the time.
elvis,
plus heat and cool them..They are energy hogs..It wouldn't surprise me at all if their wasn't collusion between builders and energy companies.. Build them big, we'll buy your stocks, we win by charging more for energy....
Elvis,get a roomba and dress it in heels and a miniskirt,woohoo!
Oil at $140???
Not for me.
Do you get around in a push cart?
also factoring in that the Saudis increase reserve amounts almost equal to or in some cases beyond what they've pulled out of the ground-YOY. In any case someone is lying and I place my bets on that part of the equation...
Ciao
MS
"And you end up using the same 1500 sf most of the time."
The kitchen, the bedroom, and the living area/TV room. I suppose some people use their bathrooms, too, but I have a very private yard.
Right now there's still latency evident between price declines at the higher end and the lowerer end, where lower has been crushed and higher end yet to catch up. Think of the EXTRA pain an aspiational move-up buyer in the current market is going to experience.
Took the greatest part of the beating on the low end and then will take the greatest part of the beating again on the next place. OUCH.
"Oil prices have a limit. NG, coal to liquids, biofuels, etc.
Even if peak oil is upon us (which I'm sceptical of) other sources of energy for cars exist."
Angry Saver | 07.24.08 - 12:49 pm |
On blurb that caught my attention was the guys out west who used a GM bacteria to produce gas. Supposedly could use anything organic to do this. At 140-150 a barrel a lot of stuff that is impractical at 40 sure looks good.
I have a friend who is working R&D on some serious deepwater stuff. Interesting conversations with him...
Chris
My friend built a 5000sf home and put geothermal heat/cooling. It cost him 80K for the installation. Costs about $150 a month to heat and cool. How many people bought McMansions and were too cheap to spring for geothermal? What hubris.
The real irony will be when our former Realtors® are cleaning our 4000 square feet.
Dont forget to wipe down the exquisite granite countertops with genuine Moen fixtures throughout, "Courtney."
i think we will start seeing mopeds and as it is a scientic law of physics that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction...
Since China and India are making non union cars cheaply and by the millions, the bikes and mopeds are disappearing..
like my socks in the dryer, they have to go somewhere...
Welcome to the USA....
MS,
This is the 3rd time in 40 years I've heard the peak oil argument. The first two times were bogus. I just don't buy it. Commodity prices are soaring because people see the prices rising. Some of the price rise is justified, but not all imo.
I sell parabolas. Others buy them.
EBSHR,
Reminds me of that joke...
"What do mopeds and fat chicks have in common?"
You guys gotta think big, here...
4000 sq. ft. and a Roomba.
also, a chicken in every Emerilware pot, and a Ford Escape Hybrid in every 3-car garage.
Angry Saver - So you think oil is a renewable resource?
"We won't get the first oil from offshore until 2020" Are all the new Kennedys that stupid.
Asia Times
Fraud and the subprime bubble
by George Pugh
The Bank Lawyer's Blog writes:
We Will, We Will Wonk You!
"In today's edition (tomorrow's edition, if you haven't crossed the International Date Line) of the Asia Times Online, consultant George Pugh has a rather "wonky" article on Collateralized Debt Obligations backed by subprime mortgages, how fraud by originators of those loans caused the bubble that has now burst, and how rating agencies may have dropped the ball by not properly accounting for fraud in their models. He asserts that the creators of CDOs, on the other hand, reacted properly to the prospect of fraud once they comprehended the breadth of the problem, even building their own processes to by-pass the rating agencies' flawed processes."
Asia Times Online :: Asian news and current affairs
Bank Lawyer's Blog
"It cost him 80K for the installation. Costs about $150 a month to heat and cool."
aleister perdurabo | 07.24.08 -12:58
Good god! I think the MOST expensive system I have looked at was 20k. Most guys I talk with are in the 12-15k for an installed system. I have heard here in Florida it can cut your cooling bill by 70%. It is in the plans when I build my place. I would like to be able to cool my shop without going broke...
Chris
My TA toolkit tells me today's market decline has no staying power; whether it goes lower by a few percent more, it'll be right up to yesterday's highs. WM is not the same, because it actually has substantial (I believe all time high) daily volume downtown. Everything else, volume is dead.
educated by school house rock writes:
i think we will start seeing mopeds and as it is a scientic law of physics that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction...
Since China and India are making non union cars cheaply and by the millions, the bikes and mopeds are disappearing..
like my socks in the dryer, they have to go somewhere...
Maybe it's just me, but I'd LOVE to see the 405 freeway backed up with obese American yuppies on used Chinese motorbikes. Where the heck would you put the ribbon sticker?
Do you get around in a push cart?
No. But I do buy used cars. I also curtail driving to help offset increasing gas prices. I'm not alone. Demand will fall. Domestically and abroad.
confused writes:
ron, i like that thought.
it's a question i've posed to this board before, that i'm not smart enough to tackle.
If we now have (soon, with senate passage and gwsignage) an EXPLICIT guarantee, of a taxpayer backed floor, who could argue that a low income TAX-Payer should suffer a higher rate than a Hi-income TAX-Payer.
They make the 30yr so expensive that the only real option is adj mortgages.
The investor's don't say, hey you mr. borrower take some of this long term risk yourself and end the 30year outright but they price them in such a manner that the market has little choice. Also note that MBS bonds are in part priced based on rate of market turnover anyway so the slower the market turns over they get priced higher.
Bilbo,
Of course not. But alternatives to oil already exist. High oil prices will bring them to the forefront.
In WWII, Germany used Coal to liquids for fuel.
At the right price, so will the USA.
"The real irony will be when our former Realtors® are cleaning our 4000 square feet. "
The problem will be when you find that tribe of Realtors living in the west wing that you rarely visit.
anonymouse-I think it holds...
the jobless claims number plays on the market more than the home sales...
CFC... ill sit with you bonging on the median....
the Junkies asked this am on the radio, that if we have synthetic oil, why cant we refine it and make synthetic gasoline...
as a scientist, i thought that was a brilliant question...
cobradriver:
How much (guestimate) does a geothermal heating system cost?
I'd be interested...
For those who wondered where China would sell all its' useless junk if not for America:
If you think that lack of financing is the only thing holding China back from consuming, consuming, consuming like we Westerners do, then prepare for a shock.
Catherine Jiang writes on atimes.com: "Chinese consumers, until now recognized as among the world's most determined savers, are adding credit cards to their wallets in record numbers, with the number of such cards in circulation almost doubled in the first quarter from a year earlier."
Asia Times Online :: Asian news and current affairs
When they don't need us anymore, what's the incentive to fund us and put up with our shenanigans?
I'm all for alternatives, but I find it funny how many people think they know that we've reached peak oil or believe we never will. Seems to me that oil reservoirs do go empty and that remaining oil becomes more difficult to get, so I'm more inclined to think peak oil is possible and appreciate the scientists researching it. Drives me crazy when people just dismiss science when it doesn't fit their political views. If you see warning signs that a curve is ahead and to reduce your speed, I think it's a good idea to slow down.
CSC,
As the world turns so do the days of our lives...
look at the damage 350 MM americans could do with cash then prosperity then credit...now imagine the havok than 3 billion chinese will do...
YTL - From upthread:
"It cost him 80K for the installation. Costs about $150 a month to heat and cool."
aleister perdurabo | 07.24.08 -12:58
Good god! I think the MOST expensive system I have looked at was 20k. Most guys I talk with are in the 12-15k for an installed system. I have heard here in Florida it can cut your cooling bill by 70%.
OT-
New IRS statistics show 7,389 federal tax returns with $200,000 or more in adjusted gross income reported no federal income taxes in 2005. Thats a 161% jump from the 2,833 comparable returns filed in 2004.
Make Over $200,000 And Pay No Income Tax? | My Two Dollars
8765 housesholds make over $200K that means 84% of the top 5% are paying 0.
Income Statistics
interesting....
CSC
"courtney"
Too typical....and funny. If you really do smoke how do you get up in the morning?? I quit long ago when my day started at 5:30am...you know the market stuff. All the power to you if you can balance.....
ANgry-
Well at they say third time's a charm.
I'm afraid it's here to stay....games over the last year notwithstanding. They keep raising the threshold....$120 seems to be the floor for now.
BTW the MM on WM is trying to keep those trend lines intact....below them now....gotta move quickly!!!
Here is some geothermal information and discussion:
Inexpensive Home Building: The Myth of Geothermal Heating Efficiency?
Shnaps writes:
Anyone hear any news on Downey financial?
I heard they still suck
lol!
I think that sucking sound is them circling the drai
Angry Saver writes:
Of course not. But alternatives to oil already exist. High oil prices will bring them to the forefront.
Were on it..............
Financial Post Story
I'd be interested...
Yearning to Learn | 07.24.08 - 1:10
YTL,
Vertical is much more expensive. Gotta drill multiple wells. Lay down is cheap due to trenching the pipe.
The guys I asked here in Florida are in the 12-15k range for a lay down. Payback is roughly 8-10 years. I figure if I put a system in I can cool my house and my shop(will be 'bout 3k/ft) for the same as I currently pay. I can live with that.
My Uncle spent 20k but he had to install all the ductwork for the ac because the 80 year old farmhouse never had it...
Chris
P.S.- I will be putting R30 in the walls...
Before you think about making a bid for those McMansion foreclosures check out the kitchen for granite countertops and make sure and bring a Geiger counter.
What's Lurking in Your Countertop? - NY Times
If we had a real free market that does what a market is supposed to do, which is to reward good behavior and punish bad behavior and inefficiency, wind, solar, geothermal and tidal would easily triumph in the marketplace. You would see them immediately taking over the marketplace.
Sorry, not buying it. I live in Arizona and even here solar is not a replacement for internal combustion engines. Sure, you can heat your water in the summer, but you're still relying on the grid for power at night or in the winter. Add to that that you need a LOT of square footage for solar. We have a lot of barren desert out here so that's not a big issue, but back East? No way.
Wind power is a bigger joke. Besides the fact that wind farms are damn unsightly, kill birds by the dozens, are very inefficient, and can only be used in certain places, have you ever considered the repercussions of taking that mush energy out of the atmosphere? What will that do to the environment as a whole? For a thought experiment, consider Biosphere 2 here in Arizona. What they discovered is that trees need a lot of wind to maintain heathly growth otherwise they collapse under their own weight as they grow taller but not wider. Also, how about wind pollination? It could be adversely affected by harnassing the wind in large quantities. Greenies ignore all the adverse effects of their proposed solutions (e.g. more heavy metals, acid in the environment due to increased battery production by going electric) in their quest to eliminate fossil fuels. Sorry, but there's no free lunch. There are adverse consequences to every energy decision we make.
I always knew the latest rise in oil was complete crap when the solar stocks didn't move in tandem (as a sector-I know what FSLR did but that was a unique case) The whole sector just got left behind. Seems to me that if we were truly on a supply and demand inflection point those would have taken off as well.
FWIW.
Ciao
MS
If I don't take a rip or two, I'm like Jim Cramer on blow. Stoned out, you can tolerate me for at least 30 minutes.
school house rock: good point. Who said the next bubble has to be in the US? If they blow up a consumption bubble in Asia, I wonder what the impact would be on Americans.
TCA-
Couldn't agree more. Same situation here in SD. The bigger issue is storage capacity...not interested in selling back to the power Co.
It all smacks of the GM-Firestone-Standard Oil crap from the early 1900's......
Ciao
MS
Turn out the lights on WM.....
It's ovah...at least for now.
Ciao
MS
Cobradriver | 07.24.08 - 1:03 pm | #
I think the MOST expensive system I have looked at was 20k. Most guys I talk with are in the 12-15k for an installed system.
Chris,
Any websites for the systems you reviewed.
Thanks
sbarrkum
TCA-Disagree regarding the solar...Have a friend that spent a good sum in Sonoma and PG@E buys his excess, he runs 4 units night and day and without Pg&e knowing he installed a switch when PG&E to get off thier grid in case of big one or something even bigger...
TCA, well said. But, the point was whether are negative consequences to alternative energy solutions. But, the need for more investment and research in them. The only free lunch is for oil and coal in the form of subsidies.
sbarrkum | Homepage | 07.24.08 -
Supposedly these guys are the largest heat pump dudes in the US.
FHP Manufacturing - Water Source and Geo-Thermal Heat Pumps
I used thier dealer locater and talked with an installer here in Charlotte County...The couple of people I spoke with said they are pretty busy right now...
Chris
thanks chris and outsider!
I have to consider this... once I decide if we'll stay in MN.
csc, glad to hear that it's medical marijuana. it's good to know that your able to treat yourself.
Rising Construction Costs Roil Developers
Rising Construction Costs Roil Developers
Rising Construction Costs Roil Developers Developers are feeling the pinch from rising construction costs, which have risen 10% to 15% each year for the past three years. Developers report even larger spikes over the past few months in materials that are derived from petroleum. The cost of concrete and steel is also up substantially, said Art Pasquarella, chief operating officer at BPG Properties. We have seen substantial cost increases in all elements of construction components, he added.
... asphalt paving alone is up 40% over
The officials are expecting a sizable jump in asphalt prices - from $65 a ton to perhaps $75 - but with oil prices climbing and some communities already paying upwards of $80, they are keeping their fingers crossed that the figures will not be even higher.
"I'm not sure how the skyrocketing costs are going to impact the bid," said town engineer Glenn Clancy. "We could be unpleasantly surprised."
Highway department administrators everywhere are figuring ways to cope with higher costs at a time when there's less money to go around.
Asphalt in GJ: Cost is up, supply is down
Asphalt in GJ: Cost is up, supply is down | GJFreePress.com
Asphalt prices have doubled from $354 a ton in the past three or four months, said Jim Bryan, construction manager for United Companies, a local construction material supplier that does a third of its business in asphalt sales. Bryan said United expects to produce almost 200,000 tons of asphalt this year at its Grand Junction plant, although the fact that their supplier, a branch of SemGroup, filed for bankruptcy Tuesday makes it more uneasy.
Has Oil Broken Down
Has Oil Broken Down? - MarketBeat - WSJ
But one emerging story revolves around SemGroup, an oil marketing firm that filed for bankruptcy, disclosing heavy losses on short positions in crude oil that they were forced to reverse as the markets gains went from steady to accelerated to explosive.
It wouldnt be the first time that a long, ongoing bull-market rally in a commodity turned into a buying frenzy, fueled at first by speculators caught up in the mere expectation of higher prices, later by the same smelling someone on the wrong side of the trade trying to get out of their positions, such as what seems to have happened with SemGroup.
The comprehensive list of SemGroup LP's creditors - filed earlier this week in the company's bankruptcy case in Delaware - is 741 pages long, according to a copy found by the Tulsa World.
Each page includes dozens of companies owed money by the Tulsa-based energy firm, which reported it has lost at least $2.4 billion in hedging mistakes on the oil futures market.
Cobradriver | 07.24.08 - 1:27 pm | #
Chris,
Thanks,
For the uninitiated (like me) a site that explains the basics and optins
How it works
Methods/ Earth Loops
sbarrkum
Anonymous writes:
Taxis in Vegas mostly use Natty...
Is that Natty Ice or Natty Light? Cool!
"Dont forget to wipe down the exquisite granite countertops.."
Now known to be radon emitters, as per today's NY Times. Man, what happened to us in the past 6 years that American's bought all this stuff we actually knew nothing about?
csc @ 12:59
"and by the way Courtney, when you're finished with the cleaning, its time for the "happy ending"
You guys are talking like geothermal is something new. It's been around for years. Won't work in cold climates.