GMAC, Cerberus Pact With FDIC Sets $3 Billion Line (Update1)
By David Mildenberg
July 24 (Bloomberg) -- GMAC LLC, the auto and housing lender owned by General Motors Corp. and Cerberus Capital Management LP, must provide $3 billion of credit to its banking unit, according to an agreement with federal banking regulators.
The credit line is among conditions imposed in an agreement between GMAC and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. that was posted on the agency's Web site today. The New York-based company said last week that the FDIC granted a 10-year waiver that permits GMAC Bank to remain under current ownership.
with Nemo. with Nemo. You did say WITH Nemo and not ON. Because my current image of you is still the masked Economist and that bag over your head might have made it hard to see what you were eating. Then again, you could just have been lunching alone and only imagined you had company. That works as well.
I've been to a couple WFC banks in the past week in oc and they all have guards this week. Is that because of another bank robbery or are they expecting a run on their bank?
I mean, the pony tail and goatee... Those I should have expected. But the bullhorn and the body-length sign reading "GET YOUR MONEY OUT OF WAMU NOW!!!" were a surprise.
I could really use some good advice. I'm a young senior still working in a social service ministry with only about 20K saved. I'm considering buying a condo (in which I would live) in Temecula in hopes that the market would go up in 10 years or so when I retire and I would have a little more then 20k to retire on. I left the convent at 48 leaving with no retirement package and this is the only way I can see clear to make a little more for retirement. Any comments would be greatly appreciated.
OT, but in regard to Sonumabich's query about FDIC insurance and beneficiaries: you really should check out the fdic.gov/edie/ site - I just learned a lot there! I had assumed that the original owner (in our case a Trust) AND the beneficiaries each shared an equal amount of FDIC insurance. Turns out, if the owner names a beneficiary or the account is owned by a trust, basically the beneficiaries of the account and/or the Trust share all the insurance. In our case, my Mom has ~$250K in three accounts at one institution. Bank swore that Mom, my brother and I each had $100K insurance. Running the calculator at the site, it shows that my brother and I each have $100K insurance as beneficiaries, Mom has none, so we need to go move some money!
Jim,
WaMu is too big to fail, although it's so big that it will be hard to save.
If I were in the Crisis Control Room, I would recommend that we try to stonewall the run on the bank by lending Wamu $30 billion or so to pay off all comers. Not a permanent solution, but the cheapest way to buy time and slow the systemmic downward spiral.
The best way to lend Wamu $30 billion is probably through the Fed, via the facility that BB established in March, using junk mortgages as collateral. Since Wamu is an S&L rather than a bank, it might be necessary to bring in a few banks to serve as middlemen.
A few months ago this would have seemed over-the-top, but the whole system is sliding toward a very bad scenario.
Don't stop working. Put your money in high yield CDs for the short term. Wait until 2010 to start thinking of buying a house. Don't use a house as an investment, unless you're planning to rent it out. Whatever you do, don't buy real estate today - you'll be buying a rapidly depreciating asset (liability).
Crocs lowered its guidance from 42-47 cents to 3-7 cents because "retailers across the board were extremely cautious with their level of reorders, choosing to operate with leaner inventories versus a year ago," said the CEO.
Sounds about right. Tighter credit, more cautious banks, less asset-based (inventory) financing available at higher rates. Things like overpriced plastic shoes can go. Why fill up the warehouse with them?
But if this is right (and sounds right) Crocs isn't alone. What other companies that make marginally useless overpriced crap will be in the same boat soon?
rich "Crocs isn't alone. What other companies that make marginally useless overpriced crap will be in the same boat soon?"
I agree. The squeeze in now on. CROC has an issue where they occupy the middle of the road and getting hit by knockoffs. APPL might be vulnerable, but there must be others.
BTW - CMG took a 20% haircut today on consumer weakness. It's spreading to all the high flyers. RIMM?
Nemo, I ask you to unmask the Invisible Man, and post a photo of you and him, lunching happily.
What makes you think CR is a "he"?
Yearning to Learn --
No favoritism involved. When I read that he was in San Fran, I wrote to offer to buy him a beer. Lunch today was the only time he had available, so I played hooky from work to meet the Man behind the Blog.
MS: Back in the 80's he was rumored to be surfing with Pat Curren in Costa Rica frequently. Am I right in remembering another story that he had ripped off wall street somehow and he was running from the law?
Hey CR does Nemo really smell like 2 day old ceviche?
Bloomberg...(more fishy stuff)
Fed Discount Loans to Commercial Banks Rise to Record
"The Federal Reserve said lending to commercial banks rose to an average daily record while loans to securities firms showed a zero balance for a fourth week.
Loans to commercial banks through the Fed's traditional discount window increased by $2.47 billion to an average $16.4 billion a day in the week ended yesterday, while lending to Wall Street bond dealers fell to zero from an average $9 million, the Fed reported today." Fed Discount Loans to Commercial Banks Rise to Record (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
I vaguely recall that but can't remember the details. The last "known" place he was at, by my recollection, was in southwestern france or something..must have been after that. You know the french take anyone ;0)
"9) You have the right, if you are an uninsured depositor, to receive distributions from the receivership as the sale of assets permits.
"10) You have the right to sleep well, knowing that since the creation of the FDIC 75 years ago, no depositor has ever lost one penny of insured deposits."
11) If you are an uninsured depositor who can't sleep, you retain the right to jump.
MS: Hmmm... Tommy Curren had that whole Biarritz thing going on for a while too. He maried Marie who had the cute little accent: To-may weel be bringing his uh-der truster today.
"The overwhelming majority of banks in this country are safe and sound and the chances that your own bank could fail are remote, unless it's Washington Mutual or Wachovia.
it is interesting however how anonymous the internet is. CR really could be Warren Buffet. Or Abbey Joseph Cohen. Or the fry cook at the grill down the way.
My "proprietary contrary indicator" (j/k) gave another bullish signal; check what's the lead story on the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/>paper of record. Enough said. I'll post my longs/stops if hit tomorrow.
But if this is right (and sounds right) Crocs isn't alone. What other companies that make marginally useless overpriced crap will be in the same boat soon?
I bought some puts on DECK a few weeks ago. Frankly, I had never heard of them, but something caught my I and this is clearly one those high-end footwear companies with a ridiculous p/e.
I also bought puts on Urban Outfitters. They will, of course, be immune to any retail downturn. Again, I've never seen one of their stores, but the valuation for a company that sells expensive things that can be bought at Walmart is absurd. Plus, they are opening a store in this small city. I like shorting local.
Yankee Candle is not far away. What that's about I can't understand. The parking lot at their huge retail outlet seemed pretty full last weekend. Yes, people travel to a small town in rural Massachusetts so they can have the widest possible candle selection. Sure, gas is expensive, and I may lose my job, but we're talking really nice scented candles!!!
it is interesting however how anonymous the internet is
Not really. Using the super site meter we can tell you missed a spot shaving,...right about here,.........oh, you don't have the monitor raster scan set to SEE ALL?
what an intersting summer. "sell by may" would have been wise this year, but for different reasons than is typical.
I wonder how much use those Hampton's pads are getting these days? Can't even skip out early on a Friday or show up late on a Monday this summer.
I really have no idea what's going on with the markets. Horrible news after horrible news comes out and the market surges. then somewhat bad news comes out and it tanks.
it's why I subscribe to Burton Malkiel's "Random walk" theory. too hard to try to explain "why" things happen. usually they just do.
as for banking: long term there are a lot of negatives. A lot of old debt, and it's gonna take a longggg time to repair the balance sheet. the investment banks are worse. where are they going to get future revenue? will they go back to the workings of the 1990's? That's a whole lot smaller, and a whole lot less profitable...
Speed writes:
"I could really use some good advice."
Ah, yes. A Franciscan by any chance? I was briefly once upon a time.
Do not buy depreciating assets. My goal, however small, is to not lose money. Perhaps in a few years you can go the investment route. Rent. Condos are the worst choice. Investigate the balance sheet if you decide to go ahead. By Balance sheet I mean is the condo/hoa funded.
But when Jawdat N. Khoudary opens the first museum of archaeology in Gaza this summer it will be a form of Palestinian patriotism, showing how this increasingly poor and isolated coastal strip ruled by the Islamists of Hamas was once a thriving multicultural crossroad.
That is before it fell into the hands of Palestinians.
Uncle billy,
M Dora was or might be in Cabo.
I surfed with him at the rock (see Jpg)aptly named in 03 or 04, can't remember as I go there with a bunch of surf rats every year after the surf industry convention, he ment'd he had rented a house up above Zippers or old mans which is break right next to jpeg shot...He was actually giving lessons to people who booked thru Mike Doyle surf school there..
This was what he had to say a few days ago when asked about their $9B Q2 loss (yes - quarterly!!) and what we could expect to see in the future:
"We certainly diminished the universe of things that could plague us in the future," Wurtz said at the time. "But it would be foolish for me to sit here today and suggest that we won't have ... additional things that disappoint us."
Do the FDIC troops drive in the usual white Fed cars with govt license plates? I'm trying to locate webcam coverage of WAMU HQ to watch for any unusual activity.
Bob_in_Ma, my parents live next to the Yankee Candle founder. I share your puzzlement about the success of that venture. But he sure made a bundle when he sold it. He keeps buying out his neighbors so he can have more space. My parents are hoping....
(Damn airport delays, my flight just got pushed back 2 hours)
If CROX is finally getting "revalued", I would expect DECK to not be too far behind. It's a local company (that's a great employer), and I have family that works there. I really do enjoy getting UGG Boots and Teva sandals cheap, but I gotta think that those are the sort of things that are going to get wiped out as the consumer flounders.
I hope to Dog that URBN goes away. I've gone into the UO and its sister store, Anthropologie, and was flabbergasted at the prices people are willing to pay for trendy crap. I've believed for a long time that these places have survived only because of the consumer credit bubble. It will be interesting to see there they're at in 6 months.
Actually it could have been before 03 as I was went down there for 10 yrs straight..Then again maybe it was not the big md...just an imposter...Looked like his style when I was paddling back out and he took off on set wave...Of course lots of tequila mixed with mescal could have given me a slightly hallucigenic experience!
Funny. I might have had an experience as well. The father of a friend of mine was one of the original gidget, moondoggy malibu crew. They had a get together every year in Santa Monica and would get totally trashed. Friend took me by one year and there was one guy who looked a lot like him telling an insane story. Friend told me it was him, but can't be sure.
Uncle Billy Vs. Mt. Pelerin writes:
Nova, where do you live?
Uncle Billy Vs. Mt. Pelerin | Homepage | 07.24.08 - 7:16 pm | #
Washington DC. You won't see a CAP because they come out of Andrews and stay up high.
The FBI has a number of light prop types that fly out of Ft. Belvoir. Watch the Potomac. Military helos usually follow the Potomac and fly low. Then they pull up and head to the Pentagon. Senior officers usually travel in a flight of three. Probably a status thing.
At least twice a month I watch the President come in on Marine One. They always fly a decoy in fast, break it off right above the tree line, then the real one comes in right behind him.
Ten-year investment horizon is not that long. The prices may go down a few more years, stay low a few more years. Even when the prices start to recover, the pace may be crawling slow.
Or, the prices may keep falling for more than a decade as they did in Japan.
If you can afford it and you would like to live in it, go right ahead. But, as investment, I wouldn't bet my life savings if I were you.
First you had Joe walking away from his mortgage. Nah, that's not true, Joe just can't afford the payments.
Then you had Joe walking away from his credit cards and car loans. Nah, Joe can't afford the payments.
Now Joe is walking away from his bank. And he's taking his money with him.
The question is who has a credibility problem here? Is it Joe or the banks? I think what we are beginning to see is Joe realizing he is going to have to pay for the bailouts either way, and is initiating a bailout of his own. Screw the house and cards, cash is king. Self-fullfulling prophecy built on perception and loss of faith in a corrupt economic model.
I agree. The squeeze in now on. CROC has an issue where they occupy the middle of the road and getting hit by knockoffs. APPL might be vulnerable, but there must be others.
On further reflection, I think there may be more to CROX than just inventory issues. Back in the early 1990s, the whole fashion scene changed almost overnight. Everything went from glam and glitz to minimalist. Fashion got austere and it wrecked a lot of clothing, accessory and jewelry companies. Some never recovered.
Crocks might not seem like glam and glitz but really it is. It's a way of pouring money down a rathole to make a personal fashion statement.
I have friends in the jewelry industry and they are just getting killed. A few weeks ago, Whitehall, a highly respected chain of 373 stores, went BK.
There's no question some of their problem is the heavy inventory financing needs of jewelers and exposure to the credit crunch. But a bigger part of the problem is...the new era of austere fashions, in tune with the new era of austere everything else.
Paper bags are coming back. And pop beads. Tell your girlfriends.
Crocks might not seem like glam and glitz but really it is. It's a way of pouring money down a rathole to make a personal fashion statement.
Croc's will survive if they can downsize back to what they originally were - utility shoes for workers (specifically health care & similar) & hobbyists.
I plaster, paint & do gardening in them - really messy stuff - indestructible & affordable if bought at outlet malls ($15 or so). I've even trout fished in them (hiked in with regular hiking boots the & used the crocks as the 'shoe part' for my stocking foot hip waders - very light weight & reasonably sure footed).
Their fashion daze are gone - but utility will still remain if they downsize for a much smaller market. The stock will get creamed as a result - somebody should take them private then 'niche market' them.
dryfly,
Crocs are comfortable and comfort is a good thing. I won't own a pair, but the people who do swear by them. Give me flip flops. But, I'm open minded.
The Banks did it to themselves and Congress was surprised
Sec Treasury Paulson should by now be familiar with what regulatory agencies are in the Treasury Department and what his responsibilities are to these agencies.
Congress with their legislative powers and oversight of the financial Institutions should have an idea of what their responsibilities in administering their oversight.
These elected officials know all about the savings and loan crisis in the 80's, John McCain was part of the Keating five. Yet these money grabbing self serving God like egos sat there and watched this crisis unfold since at least 2002. Economist Roubini warned the Congress in 2002 of what was to come.
The Congress has stated it was the subprime, then it was the variable rate mortgages, it was the predatory lenders, it was the mortgage borrowers that did not understand what they signed.
These Congressional halfwits have to understand that THE BANKS DESIGNED THE PAPER WORK AND THE RULES. Congress since 1980 has not passed any federal consumer banking regulations. THE BANKS FOR 35 YEARS have operated with absolute impunity. The Banks are self regulating. The Banks answer to no one The Congress passes no legislation that would impair these wealthy and powerful banks in their quest for greed.
There are 4 million foreclosures slated by 2008 year end, 6 Million by 2009 year end.
Paulson and the Congress not only were surprised by what has happened, but they for 5 months on how to save Freddie and Fannie, the Banks, Wall street, Brokers,
Federal Reserve and any wealthy and powerful political friends.
WHO IS TRYING TO SAVE THE AMERICANS WHO LOST THEIR FINANCIAL SECURITY BECAUSE THE CONGRESS AND PEEWEE PAULSON WERE BLATANTLY NEGLECTING THEIR PUBLIC DUTY AND SWORN OATH OF OFFICE.
These wealthy and powerful are only concerned at this point about shoring up those institutions that they benefit from. Enough is enough. What happened to the MILLIONS of dollars that the FREDDIE and FANNIE Gods were taking home? Who stands for the loss?
All these people in our country that made money should be stripped of their assets so that the sale proceeds of those assets are repaid to the injured parties which are WE THE PEOPLE. This stealing has to stop.
The only change we need in this country is the way Congress does business.
MLB
Toast anyone?
So, did he have white and orange strips as he was seen in the movie?
Jam and butter?
YouTube - BRUCE COCKBURN - If I Had A Rocket Launcher
"Here comes the helicopter - 2nd one today"
You mean the one with the sub $5 stock.
Scottrade won't let you short below $5.
Market is already predicting failure.
Shiela should be monitoring stock prices.
Any bank stock heading to single digits represents potential failures.
Someday this war's gonna end...
More toast and Jam.
GMAC, Cerberus Pact With FDIC Sets $3 Billion Line (Update1)
By David Mildenberg
July 24 (Bloomberg) -- GMAC LLC, the auto and housing lender owned by General Motors Corp. and Cerberus Capital Management LP, must provide $3 billion of credit to its banking unit, according to an agreement with federal banking regulators.
The credit line is among conditions imposed in an agreement between GMAC and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. that was posted on the agency's Web site today. The New York-based company said last week that the FDIC granted a 10-year waiver that permits GMAC Bank to remain under current ownership.
CR-You going to stay there over the weekend? I'm making a quick trip up there tomorrow.
with Nemo. with Nemo. You did say WITH Nemo and not ON. Because my current image of you is still the masked Economist and that bag over your head might have made it hard to see what you were eating. Then again, you could just have been lunching alone and only imagined you had company. That works as well.
I always imagined "Calculated Risk" as a guy with a slide rule, and maybe a pocket protector.
But the reality was beyond anything I could possibly have imagined.
CROX down 45% after hours. Is this it for crocs?
So, now that you are back and calculating, will WM make it or go bust? (I'm betting on bust).
Ohhh, he meant "Nemo" and not "no man"!
I've been to a couple WFC banks in the past week in oc and they all have guards this week. Is that because of another bank robbery or are they expecting a run on their bank?
CR found Nemo!!! Sushi for lunch?
http://www.activemax.com/archives/nemo-sushi.jpg
I mean, the pony tail and goatee... Those I should have expected. But the bullhorn and the body-length sign reading "GET YOUR MONEY OUT OF WAMU NOW!!!" were a surprise.
These guy's are Cornholiod, They will be ASSimilated.
In other news.
Speculators aren't driving up oil prices, report finds
Speculators aren't driving up oil prices, report finds - The New York Times
U.S. accuses Dutch company of profiting by manipulating oil prices
U.S. accuses Dutch company of profiting by manipulating oil prices - The New York Times
I would bet on manipulation myself.
I could really use some good advice. I'm a young senior still working in a social service ministry with only about 20K saved. I'm considering buying a condo (in which I would live) in Temecula in hopes that the market would go up in 10 years or so when I retire and I would have a little more then 20k to retire on. I left the convent at 48 leaving with no retirement package and this is the only way I can see clear to make a little more for retirement. Any comments would be greatly appreciated.
OT, but in regard to Sonumabich's query about FDIC insurance and beneficiaries: you really should check out the fdic.gov/edie/ site - I just learned a lot there! I had assumed that the original owner (in our case a Trust) AND the beneficiaries each shared an equal amount of FDIC insurance. Turns out, if the owner names a beneficiary or the account is owned by a trust, basically the beneficiaries of the account and/or the Trust share all the insurance. In our case, my Mom has ~$250K in three accounts at one institution. Bank swore that Mom, my brother and I each had $100K insurance. Running the calculator at the site, it shows that my brother and I each have $100K insurance as beneficiaries, Mom has none, so we need to go move some money!
Any idea how a Wamu failure could affect money market funds?
IMO real estate and market conditions are extremely
unpredictable, especially in Riverside county, Calif.
But the reality was beyond anything I could possibly have imagined.
I'm thinking that someone's got a crush on CR!!!!
we all knew CR was just as sexy as could be. I mean, c'mon... he's bold and thoughtful...
I'm envisioning Clive Owens myself.
that aside: I didn't know we were playing favorites CR!
Did you meet Warren Buffett? I understand he's here alot.
Warren plays bridge online with CR when Bill is out philanthropizing.
Jim,
WaMu is too big to fail, although it's so big that it will be hard to save.
If I were in the Crisis Control Room, I would recommend that we try to stonewall the run on the bank by lending Wamu $30 billion or so to pay off all comers. Not a permanent solution, but the cheapest way to buy time and slow the systemmic downward spiral.
The best way to lend Wamu $30 billion is probably through the Fed, via the facility that BB established in March, using junk mortgages as collateral. Since Wamu is an S&L rather than a bank, it might be necessary to bring in a few banks to serve as middlemen.
A few months ago this would have seemed over-the-top, but the whole system is sliding toward a very bad scenario.
"I could really use some good advice."
Don't stop working. Put your money in high yield CDs for the short term. Wait until 2010 to start thinking of buying a house. Don't use a house as an investment, unless you're planning to rent it out. Whatever you do, don't buy real estate today - you'll be buying a rapidly depreciating asset (liability).
I was thinking CR looks more along the lines of Nick Nolte from that mugshot photo a few years back.
Here it is
TSG Mug Shot: Nick Nolte
Crocs lowered its guidance from 42-47 cents to 3-7 cents because "retailers across the board were extremely cautious with their level of reorders, choosing to operate with leaner inventories versus a year ago," said the CEO.
Sounds about right. Tighter credit, more cautious banks, less asset-based (inventory) financing available at higher rates. Things like overpriced plastic shoes can go. Why fill up the warehouse with them?
But if this is right (and sounds right) Crocs isn't alone. What other companies that make marginally useless overpriced crap will be in the same boat soon?
How about Apple?
Elvis has left the building!
Nemo, I ask you to unmask the Invisible Man, and post a photo of you and him, lunching happily.
And, if you have a photo of you two plus Catwoman/catty woman/T-, that would be even better.
CR the Rock Star
Bill the cat image by bmcmahon48 on Photobucket
It's actually a good time for bank executives to get fired. At least they can cash in their stock before it goes to zero.
Caveat - predicting the financial future is like trying to determine which way the road will turn by looking in the rear-view mirror.
"Nemo writes:
I always imagined "Calculated Risk" as a guy with a slide rule, and maybe a pocket protector.
But the reality was beyond anything I could possibly have imagined."
He's a 19 year old former subprime mortgage broker, right? Right? I knew it.
CR is Casey Serin. Or Mickey Dora, haven't figured it out yet.
FDIC - Press Release
FDIC: Press Releases - PR-62-2008 7/24/2008
"The banking system in this country remains on a solid footing through the guarantees provided by FDIC insurance."
This really is a call to panic.
Notice that the media contact is:
mailto:angray@fdic.gov
uncle billy-
One of my favorite quotes comes from Dora..
"The world is full of idiots...that's why I don't live there"....
Don't make them like him anymore...
Ciao
MS
rich "Crocs isn't alone. What other companies that make marginally useless overpriced crap will be in the same boat soon?"
I agree. The squeeze in now on. CROC has an issue where they occupy the middle of the road and getting hit by knockoffs. APPL might be vulnerable, but there must be others.
BTW - CMG took a 20% haircut today on consumer weakness. It's spreading to all the high flyers. RIMM?
CR doesn't have a face!
Calculated Risk | MySpace
CR You found NEMO!
jg --
Nemo, I ask you to unmask the Invisible Man, and post a photo of you and him, lunching happily.
What makes you think CR is a "he"?
Yearning to Learn --
No favoritism involved. When I read that he was in San Fran, I wrote to offer to buy him a beer. Lunch today was the only time he had available, so I played hooky from work to meet the Man behind the Blog.
(Er, "Man or Woman", I mean.)
"Hello. Seattle Dominos."
"This is Sheila Bair. We ordered our fu&ing pizzas two hours ago. Where the fu& are they?"
"Sorry Ms. Bair. The WAMU credit card you gave us didn't work, so we cannot complete your order."
"Great. Fu%^ing great."
That PR is priceless especially that it begins with
"in an OP-ed piece......"
Classic...I think they smell blood at this point.
thanks Barly...now to clean off the monitor
Ciao
MS
"FDIC - Press Release"
Active weekend ahead.
I get the feeling we're getting awfully close to a HOLYSHITBURGER situation. Straws are rapidly accumulating atop the camel's back.
MS: Back in the 80's he was rumored to be surfing with Pat Curren in Costa Rica frequently. Am I right in remembering another story that he had ripped off wall street somehow and he was running from the law?
Uncle Billy,
Who CR or Nemo?
Was 1280 as good as it gets?
Hey, I tried writing to "angry@fdic.gov" and it bounced back! What gives?
Was 1280 as good as it gets?
No. 1500 in the year 2000 was. We will never see that level in inflation adjusted terms again imo.
Hey CR does Nemo really smell like 2 day old ceviche?
Bloomberg...(more fishy stuff)
Fed Discount Loans to Commercial Banks Rise to Record
"The Federal Reserve said lending to commercial banks rose to an average daily record while loans to securities firms showed a zero balance for a fourth week.
Loans to commercial banks through the Fed's traditional discount window increased by $2.47 billion to an average $16.4 billion a day in the week ended yesterday, while lending to Wall Street bond dealers fell to zero from an average $9 million, the Fed reported today."
Fed Discount Loans to Commercial Banks Rise to Record (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Nemo,
It was angray@fdic.gov
I tried thisisbullshit@fdic.gov too, but that didn't work either.
uncle billy-
I vaguely recall that but can't remember the details. The last "known" place he was at, by my recollection, was in southwestern france or something..must have been after that. You know the french take anyone ;0)
Ciao
MS
"9) You have the right, if you are an uninsured depositor, to receive distributions from the receivership as the sale of assets permits.
"10) You have the right to sleep well, knowing that since the creation of the FDIC 75 years ago, no depositor has ever lost one penny of insured deposits."
11) If you are an uninsured depositor who can't sleep, you retain the right to jump.
MS: Hmmm... Tommy Curren had that whole Biarritz thing going on for a while too. He maried Marie who had the cute little accent: To-may weel be bringing his uh-der truster today.
I'll bet he smokes more hemp than csc now :
sdtfs, I'm leaving tomorrow morning. Sorry I missed you.
Why is there so much news when I'm out of town?
Best to all.
"The overwhelming majority of banks in this country are safe and sound and the chances that your own bank could fail are remote, unless it's Washington Mutual or Wachovia.
OK I'm ready; you can turn on the mic now."
I hope you didn't have hard time finding nemo.
Mickey Dora Night at the lA Press Club:
Author David Rensin Discusses Miki Dora - YouTube - Truveo Video Search
Nemo:
are you trying to insinuate that CR might be a hermaphrodite?
I still think you're his/her favorite.
I'm beginning to think I'm a carrier. I mention Nat City and Downey in a post about WaMu early this morning and look what happens.
Hopefully CR knows there's always a cold one waiting for him in Ventura County. And none of that Belgian Bud swill either.
it is interesting however how anonymous the internet is. CR really could be Warren Buffet. Or Abbey Joseph Cohen. Or the fry cook at the grill down the way.
amazing.
I'm waiting for the lunch report of CR with Jas Jain.
ON the menu:
Born and bred American Chicken
Cream of Dopes soup
Crooked Master Salad
???
My "proprietary contrary indicator" (j/k) gave another bullish signal; check what's the lead story on the <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/>paper of record. Enough said. I'll post my longs/stops if hit tomorrow.
But if this is right (and sounds right) Crocs isn't alone. What other companies that make marginally useless overpriced crap will be in the same boat soon?
I bought some puts on DECK a few weeks ago. Frankly, I had never heard of them, but something caught my I and this is clearly one those high-end footwear companies with a ridiculous p/e.
I also bought puts on Urban Outfitters. They will, of course, be immune to any retail downturn. Again, I've never seen one of their stores, but the valuation for a company that sells expensive things that can be bought at Walmart is absurd. Plus, they are opening a store in this small city. I like shorting local.
Yankee Candle is not far away. What that's about I can't understand. The parking lot at their huge retail outlet seemed pretty full last weekend. Yes, people travel to a small town in rural Massachusetts so they can have the widest possible candle selection. Sure, gas is expensive, and I may lose my job, but we're talking really nice scented candles!!!
it is interesting however how anonymous the internet is
Not really. Using the super site meter we can tell you missed a spot shaving,...right about here,.........oh, you don't have the monitor raster scan set to SEE ALL?
giacutter, I love it!
I think Jas left us because there is now too much competition from other wackos around here.
back to topic:
what an intersting summer. "sell by may" would have been wise this year, but for different reasons than is typical.
I wonder how much use those Hampton's pads are getting these days? Can't even skip out early on a Friday or show up late on a Monday this summer.
I really have no idea what's going on with the markets. Horrible news after horrible news comes out and the market surges. then somewhat bad news comes out and it tanks.
it's why I subscribe to Burton Malkiel's "Random walk" theory. too hard to try to explain "why" things happen. usually they just do.
as for banking: long term there are a lot of negatives. A lot of old debt, and it's gonna take a longggg time to repair the balance sheet. the investment banks are worse. where are they going to get future revenue? will they go back to the workings of the 1990's? That's a whole lot smaller, and a whole lot less profitable...
grim times ahead.
Hey CR, when you're hanging with your groupies, say hi to Sebastian.
Well, it looks like Comrades Paulson and Bernacke won´t be able to go to the dacha this weekend.
Speed writes:
"I could really use some good advice."
Ah, yes. A Franciscan by any chance? I was briefly once upon a time.
Do not buy depreciating assets. My goal, however small, is to not lose money. Perhaps in a few years you can go the investment route. Rent. Condos are the worst choice. Investigate the balance sheet if you decide to go ahead. By Balance sheet I mean is the condo/hoa funded.
Best investment advice I gave myself a few years ago:
Go long friendship.
Bob_in_MA, traveling with you OT...
When I look at the stock price graph of Urban Outfitters from its inception to today, I get a nice little flash-back to the DotCom bubble.
Those are some lofty heights for a retailer in today's world!
On the plus side, at least they don't have any debt.
I think Jas left us because there is now too much competition from other wackos around here.
I think too many people started agreeing with him. Scared him.
Way off topic but...
Something is up. F-18's are flying CAP above DC, and a lot more fixed wing are up an about.
Nova, where do you live?
Museum Offers Gray Gaza A View of Its Dazzling Past - NY Times
But when Jawdat N. Khoudary opens the first museum of archaeology in Gaza this summer it will be a form of Palestinian patriotism, showing how this increasingly poor and isolated coastal strip ruled by the Islamists of Hamas was once a thriving multicultural crossroad.
That is before it fell into the hands of Palestinians.
ShortCourage:
On the plus side, at least they don't have any debt.
Neither does Crocs.
Crocs
I have a poor sap of a friend that invested his life savings in Crocs. He did this before we became friends, but I couldn't talk him into selling
Nemo, don't get me wrong. URBN is my 2nd-largest Put holding. Their valuation is insane. I was just trying to be fair and balanced!
"Something is up. F-18's are flying CAP above DC, and a lot more fixed wing are up an about."
High profile visitors to DC? Where's the Dalai Lama's next venue?
Nova:
I live in Arlington, but have an incomplete view of the Capitol Area. I see traffic in and out of Reagan--it's normal looking.
I see no mil fix wing. Which direction should I look?
OT--If they need pizza in Seattle this weekend, I recommend Pegasus Pizza in West Seattle.
Well the Israeli chief of staff was in dc. don't know if he's still there.
"Something is up. F-18's are flying CAP above DC, and a lot more fixed wing are up an about."
Now they know where CR is, and that he's leaving tomorrow, Sheila has scrambled the FDIC Air Strike Force.
Uncle billy,
M Dora was or might be in Cabo.
I surfed with him at the rock (see Jpg)aptly named in 03 or 04, can't remember as I go there with a bunch of surf rats every year after the surf industry convention, he ment'd he had rented a house up above Zippers or old mans which is break right next to jpeg shot...He was actually giving lessons to people who booked thru Mike Doyle surf school there..
http://www.surfinside.com/Pic's%20Link/pictures/2007/Surfing-CABO/Holly-Buche-classics.jpg
WACHOVIA CFO WURTZ "LEAVES"
This was what he had to say a few days ago when asked about their $9B Q2 loss (yes - quarterly!!) and what we could expect to see in the future:
"We certainly diminished the universe of things that could plague us in the future," Wurtz said at the time. "But it would be foolish for me to sit here today and suggest that we won't have ... additional things that disappoint us."
(excerpted from the Charlotte Observer)
ew thread
Do the FDIC troops drive in the usual white Fed cars with govt license plates? I'm trying to locate webcam coverage of WAMU HQ to watch for any unusual activity.
cd: but his biographer said he died in 2002.
Intriguing.
link didn't come through.
Bob_in_Ma, my parents live next to the Yankee Candle founder. I share your puzzlement about the success of that venture. But he sure made a bundle when he sold it. He keeps buying out his neighbors so he can have more space. My parents are hoping....
(Damn airport delays, my flight just got pushed back 2 hours)
CR was lunch at Jack's Place,or a corndog at pier 39?
Hopefully people are still hanging out here...
If CROX is finally getting "revalued", I would expect DECK to not be too far behind. It's a local company (that's a great employer), and I have family that works there. I really do enjoy getting UGG Boots and Teva sandals cheap, but I gotta think that those are the sort of things that are going to get wiped out as the consumer flounders.
I hope to Dog that URBN goes away. I've gone into the UO and its sister store, Anthropologie, and was flabbergasted at the prices people are willing to pay for trendy crap. I've believed for a long time that these places have survived only because of the consumer credit bubble. It will be interesting to see there they're at in 6 months.
Uncle billy,
Actually it could have been before 03 as I was went down there for 10 yrs straight..Then again maybe it was not the big md...just an imposter...Looked like his style when I was paddling back out and he took off on set wave...Of course lots of tequila mixed with mescal could have given me a slightly hallucigenic experience!
Funny. I might have had an experience as well. The father of a friend of mine was one of the original gidget, moondoggy malibu crew. They had a get together every year in Santa Monica and would get totally trashed. Friend took me by one year and there was one guy who looked a lot like him telling an insane story. Friend told me it was him, but can't be sure.
Uncle Billy Vs. Mt. Pelerin writes:
Nova, where do you live?
Uncle Billy Vs. Mt. Pelerin | Homepage | 07.24.08 - 7:16 pm | #
Washington DC. You won't see a CAP because they come out of Andrews and stay up high.
The FBI has a number of light prop types that fly out of Ft. Belvoir. Watch the Potomac. Military helos usually follow the Potomac and fly low. Then they pull up and head to the Pentagon. Senior officers usually travel in a flight of three. Probably a status thing.
At least twice a month I watch the President come in on Marine One. They always fly a decoy in fast, break it off right above the tree line, then the real one comes in right behind him.
Nova: Interesting, but now they're really going to close down the blog
(frown)
ShortCourage,
"I think Jas left us because there is now too much competition from other wackos around here."
HEY! I resemble that remark. What I ever do to you anyway?
Cheers,
wanker
Uncle Billy Vs. Mt. Pelerin writes:
Nova: Interesting, but now they're really going to close down the blog
(frown)
Uncle Billy Vs. Mt. Pelerin | Homepage | 07.24.08 - 7:54 pm | #
Actually, I thought about that sadly enough. But then any half wit from a land where Cobras are bad things could spend a day in DC and figure it out.
That is before it fell into the hands of Palestinians.
A racist hit and run post. Wow, that takes courage.
I dunno... never overestimate your enemy. Still interesting though.
Nova,
Hope the USMC is tracking this blog...they need to change their flight patterns.
Uncle Billy and maybe Misean,
Try this:
Information Dissemination
Sounds tinfoil but it isn't.
Looks like a fairly level headed blog.
Good link:
LiveLeak.com - Weapon Failure
To: What would you do....
Ten-year investment horizon is not that long. The prices may go down a few more years, stay low a few more years. Even when the prices start to recover, the pace may be crawling slow.
Or, the prices may keep falling for more than a decade as they did in Japan.
If you can afford it and you would like to live in it, go right ahead. But, as investment, I wouldn't bet my life savings if I were you.
First you had Joe walking away from his mortgage. Nah, that's not true, Joe just can't afford the payments.
Then you had Joe walking away from his credit cards and car loans. Nah, Joe can't afford the payments.
Now Joe is walking away from his bank. And he's taking his money with him.
The question is who has a credibility problem here? Is it Joe or the banks? I think what we are beginning to see is Joe realizing he is going to have to pay for the bailouts either way, and is initiating a bailout of his own. Screw the house and cards, cash is king. Self-fullfulling prophecy built on perception and loss of faith in a corrupt economic model.
Great your meeting people.
On further reflection, I think there may be more to CROX than just inventory issues. Back in the early 1990s, the whole fashion scene changed almost overnight. Everything went from glam and glitz to minimalist. Fashion got austere and it wrecked a lot of clothing, accessory and jewelry companies. Some never recovered.
Crocks might not seem like glam and glitz but really it is. It's a way of pouring money down a rathole to make a personal fashion statement.
I have friends in the jewelry industry and they are just getting killed. A few weeks ago, Whitehall, a highly respected chain of 373 stores, went BK.
There's no question some of their problem is the heavy inventory financing needs of jewelers and exposure to the credit crunch. But a bigger part of the problem is...the new era of austere fashions, in tune with the new era of austere everything else.
Paper bags are coming back. And pop beads. Tell your girlfriends.
Crocks might not seem like glam and glitz but really it is. It's a way of pouring money down a rathole to make a personal fashion statement.
Croc's will survive if they can downsize back to what they originally were - utility shoes for workers (specifically health care & similar) & hobbyists.
I plaster, paint & do gardening in them - really messy stuff - indestructible & affordable if bought at outlet malls ($15 or so). I've even trout fished in them (hiked in with regular hiking boots the & used the crocks as the 'shoe part' for my stocking foot hip waders - very light weight & reasonably sure footed).
Their fashion daze are gone - but utility will still remain if they downsize for a much smaller market. The stock will get creamed as a result - somebody should take them private then 'niche market' them.
dryfly,
Crocs are comfortable and comfort is a good thing. I won't own a pair, but the people who do swear by them. Give me flip flops. But, I'm open minded.
Any apparel firm that is public either has massive margins or are a group who got lucky and are turning it into a pump n dump.
The Banks did it to themselves and Congress was surprised
Sec Treasury Paulson should by now be familiar with what regulatory agencies are in the Treasury Department and what his responsibilities are to these agencies.
Congress with their legislative powers and oversight of the financial Institutions should have an idea of what their responsibilities in administering their oversight.
These elected officials know all about the savings and loan crisis in the 80's, John McCain was part of the Keating five. Yet these money grabbing self serving God like egos sat there and watched this crisis unfold since at least 2002. Economist Roubini warned the Congress in 2002 of what was to come.
The Congress has stated it was the subprime, then it was the variable rate mortgages, it was the predatory lenders, it was the mortgage borrowers that did not understand what they signed.
These Congressional halfwits have to understand that THE BANKS DESIGNED THE PAPER WORK AND THE RULES. Congress since 1980 has not passed any federal consumer banking regulations. THE BANKS FOR 35 YEARS have operated with absolute impunity. The Banks are self regulating. The Banks answer to no one The Congress passes no legislation that would impair these wealthy and powerful banks in their quest for greed.
There are 4 million foreclosures slated by 2008 year end, 6 Million by 2009 year end.
Paulson and the Congress not only were surprised by what has happened, but they for 5 months on how to save Freddie and Fannie, the Banks, Wall street, Brokers,
Federal Reserve and any wealthy and powerful political friends.
WHO IS TRYING TO SAVE THE AMERICANS WHO LOST THEIR FINANCIAL SECURITY BECAUSE THE CONGRESS AND PEEWEE PAULSON WERE BLATANTLY NEGLECTING THEIR PUBLIC DUTY AND SWORN OATH OF OFFICE.
These wealthy and powerful are only concerned at this point about shoring up those institutions that they benefit from. Enough is enough. What happened to the MILLIONS of dollars that the FREDDIE and FANNIE Gods were taking home? Who stands for the loss?
All these people in our country that made money should be stripped of their assets so that the sale proceeds of those assets are repaid to the injured parties which are WE THE PEOPLE. This stealing has to stop.
The only change we need in this country is the way Congress does business.
MLB