Glimcher has been trying to sell Eastland mall in Charlotte for a couple of years now. This was a premier mall in the 1970s - it drew people from surrounding counties and the neighborhoods around it were the growth area of the day.
Latest news is they are walking away from it, and asking a trustee to dispose of the property. There just arent't any serious buyers. The neighborhoods nearby have turned into Section 8 rentals. Crime has become a problem at the mall with several shootings over the years.
The anchors to the mall have been slowly leaving. (Only Sears is still there, and it's essentially an "outlet" Sears with very little traffic.) What remains in the mall are shoe store and t-shirts places, and the food court.
It's a shame to see this happen to a mall that still seems to be in structually good shape. But it goes to show, how quickly an American neighborhood can age and become neglected.
Times they are a changing. My "town" is loosing 2 Starbucks, 1 Linen's and things and 1 Sharper Images and 2 Disney stores. The Sharper image is empty and will probably stay that way since there are other vacancies around it, The Compusa is open but will probably close soon and the space it occupies is huge. The starbucks operated small spaces so I am more optimistic about someone coming in and taking over the space. CR how bad do things have to get before we stop calling the CRE market merely "soft" and start using a more forceful adjective.
Is anyone expecting the CRE bust to be the driver of the next significant leg down in the economy, or is it just part of the confluence of events that's leading giving us recessionary growth for the foreseeable future?
is it just part of the confluence of events that's leading giving us recessionary growth for the foreseeable future?
this is going to hurt the upper class more. Everyone I met who drives an Aston Martin was a developer of strip malls or something to due with retail complexes.
Bankers and their lobbyists generally back the measure and say a tax credit for first-time buyers will create new borrowers, helping to trim an oversupply of available homes and slow the drop in home prices. The FHA program will let them cut the number of bad loans on their books and held by investors.
Oh... and GGP boasths Mervyn's as an anchor tenant in 10 of its malls. Who will step up and take their spot? Empty anchor stores are not a shining beacon of prosperity at malls.
Simon Property Group, the largest mall operator in the US reports tomorrow morning. If their results are weak, you can expect GGP's (2nd largest mall operator) results to be horrific.
This week will bring many more CRE posts from CR, and I for one look very much forward to them!
This is going to be another example of shutting the barn door after the horses have left...
The debt will stop preforming, rates will spike, refi's will not be available, (a lot of mortgages have been bullet loans) and defaults will rise more....
Dodd, a Connecticut Democrat, said he is ``terribly disappointed'' that Housing and Urban Development Secretary Steve Preston has said it would take as long as a year to implement regulations to provide help for almost 400,000 homeowners at risk of foreclosure.
You see, Congress passed it fast and sloppy. They want it implemented fast and sloppy.
Hey, maybe there's time to squeeze in the commercial bailout bill too before the election. We need those stores open to keep the consumer spending, and the conomy moving!
The mall is still a good place to go to look at hot chicks. If the stores put chairs in their windows rather than merchandise, they'd probably attract more customers.
I live a few mile from Colonie Center. Parking is scarce whenever I go there. I can't say how much people are spending, but it doesn't seem traffic is down.
By the way, any store that can't come up with a better name than "Linens 'n Things" deserved to go out of business years ago. "Things", what things?
ATC - Your anecdotes are beyond silly. You sound more like Sebastian every day. Store sales are falling despite the stimulus. Stores are failing, because they are heavily debt-laden, blindly levering up for that bullish sales growth that is in full reverse.
An unscientific report from Northeast Louisiana: The Pecanland Mall in Monroe, not on the main drag for sure, used to be packed shoulder to shoulder with people, people, people.
Now you have lots of room to walk and a growing number of holes that remain vacant. Starbucks is closing their store there. The anchors still up and running, but the grim fact is that they are struggling. Sears, Dillards, Belks and Penney's. Loaded with inventory and markdowns dominate.
Some of the replacements that are filling the holes are local folks selling comestibles and consumable crap. The operators have a lean and hungry look about them.
I travel throughout north Louisiana and southern Arkansas. I don't have much of a feel for what's happening except that small towns that have hung together are hanging tough so far.
Still, I see lots of evidence of new
cre construction, strip centers and stand alone three or four buildings in a block. The signs are up that announce financing by several local type banks. These same banks are also touting free checking, 5% interest on checking, above average returns on CD's, etc.
For me, the signs are there. For most folks, they haven't a clue. Everything's fine, it's a buying opportunity, etc.
"It's not a very happy time to be building a new shopping center, that's for sure,"
Then why are they still building them????
We have a Simon mall in my area that is reportedly 50% vacant. The other malls here have multiple vacancies and there are no kiosks left.
Today, my local newspaper reported that a developer is taking a local municipality to court because they won't give him a permit to build yet another shopping center. I think they're doing him a favor!
CRE is long lead time. Stuff being built today was fleshed out and financed 1-2 years ago. Lag a graph of residential and commercial about a year. Ominous.
A local retailer said that Mr Walendowski might now have difficulty getting his lawn mower repaired.
"Anything not factory recommended would void the warranty," said Dick Wagner, of Wagner's Garden Mart in Milwaukee.
A leading member of one of the most notorious clans of the Naples mafia has been arrested while shopping in Rome.
Local media name the man as Adriano Graziano, known as "The Teacher", who was detained without a fight as he left a designer clothes store
The anchors to the mall have been slowly leaving. (Only Sears is still there, and it's essentially an "outlet" Sears with very little traffic.)
What's supremely ironic is that Sears' share price is being held up solely on the value of its real estate. It went up last week while the market went down and has a higher p/e than Target or Walmart.
Several restaurants at a newer/high rent shoppong center near me have gone under. High gas prices equal fewer restaurant visits. When rent is so high, the lost volume kills the businesses in the margins. Without the rent, those shopping center will be in troulbe soon, too.
I wondered why Wilson leather didn't open its usual Christmas shop at the Merritt Island mall last year. I feel bad about this; I usually bought something each Christmas, either for myself or a gift. Didn't know they went under.
I will have to go spend some money at Dillard's!!! Some shoes perhaps. Every woman needs more shoes.
"The neighborhoods nearby have turned into Section 8 rentals. Crime has become a problem at the mall with several shootings over the years."
Originally intended as a means of getting selected individuals out of blight-ridden areas, Section 8 housing has unfortunately proven to be a death's blow to any neighborhood, no matter how healthy, as they're powerful generators of crime. Atlantic Monthly online recently carried an article on the links between the two.
Don't you think it would be easier for states to legalize gambling so CRE can be turned into gaming areas. It would be a boon for local government and take up a fair bit of space in strip malls.
WAIT!
Do not despair here in Sarasota Florida at the corner of I-75 and University they are building a HUGE high end mall...you know one that will have needless markup and the rest...
However if you drive up highway 41 and head towards the airport it is a ghost town...with hundreds of empty condo units...yet the upscale mall is going forward!
bizarre
S&P 500 P/E is now around 18.
At bear market bottoms it's likely to be 6 or 7.
Corporate profits are now at a record high -- twice as large a percentage of GDP as their mean level.
So a 50% fall of earnings by reversion to the mean (even with no overshoot to the downside), along with a slide in the P/E to, say, 9, equates to stock prices 75% down.
"Dillards, that's the place that hires off-duty cops to strangle African-American gentlemen"
Ye think... Walking off with merchandise without going through the formality of paying and then resisting apprehension might have something to do with it ?
The Camarillo Premium Outlet Mall is steel and girders in the process of adding 50 stores to the existing 120. Owned by Chelsea Premium Outlets, look at this map and be very afraid for them. Chelsea Premium Outlets - Our Centers
The daughter is 39, an architect in Boston, self supporting and graduated from U of Fla at Gainesville at 21 with no debt whatsoever. She did borrow money to attend MIT. I think it's paid off now. She paid off her very small house tore it down, and is now rebuilding. Not a good idea at this time, but again, her choice.
The son graduated from a Florida state school with near a 4.0 and owes less than $2000 for tuition. He too is self supporting. He wants a Masters in public health. We spring for college, but I think grad school is the kid's problem. Also both of them paid for a lot of their education; we made the daughter put half of her summer earnings away, and did the Fla tuition thing for the son; he wasn't ready for college and went in the army for 4 years and got more money for college and was turned thereby into a peacenik.
You got no money, and you, you got no home
Spinning wheel all alone
Talking about your troubles and you, you never learn
Ride a painted pony
let the spinning wheel tur
Love the part where you can plan your vaction around one of these crap outlets. HAhahaha. Time to go to plan B for these guys. Liz was being sarcastic but looks good to me...
Oh, Bosch, I am a shoe piker. Less than 50 pair, in fact less than 40, some of which are worn out and should be thrown away. Some of them are in Merritt Island, and some in Miami. And some, I suspect with one shoe in one place and the other in the other.
My real sin is books. Many many books. My hub and son are book maniacs too. I make no appologies for my book buying.
Some of those CRE towers were just finished and looked really nice.
I mean in terms of building quality they probably beat rest of S.Cali office RE space.
Wonder if it makes sense to relocated from over- crowded downtown LA or climate unfriendly 101 corridor.
I've always wondered about the outlet stores. Do they really have better deals? Gladys dragged me into one years ago and the prices seemed about the same if not higher for similar merchandise elsewhere.
Here in Westchester, CA (90045) the local Fox Hills Mall was recently bought by Westfield. It is mostly full. I go there for things like clothes (JCPenny = high class for me), cards, Radio Shack, food.
WHen my son was little, we used to go to the video games which he loves to play (now 2nd year medical student). Lot of tough looking guys there (probably gangs), but I kept quiet and they seemd to enjoy watching a little kid play the games. They closed the games down a few years later, probably to keep the gands out.
As they say, the years go quickly and the days go slowly.
Ours are stacked in front of the shelves, and in the closets and everywhere. And virtually all of our books were destroyed in hurricane andrew, so these are just the additions since 1992-3. When we moved to Fla in 72, we had 6000 pounds of possessions, of which 5000 lbs were books. . .
Morphological analysis was designed for multi-dimensional, non-quantifiable problems where causal modeling and simulation do not function well or at all
Don't forget the jewelry store closings and BKs. Jewelry stores are a mall mainstay. Recently, they include Whitehalls (373 stores, all kaput), Fortunoff (20 stores, Chapter 11), Alpha Omega (5 stores, Chapter 11), Friedman's and Crescent (455 stores, Chapter 11 and then liquidated), and Hendricks (6 stores, Chapter 11).
The retail jewelry business is dead on its ass, so there will be many more.
This is interesting, here's the "father of the american shopping mall," and the man on whose shoulders Simon stood to become master of the shopping universe.
RD - "I'm huntin' GGP who probably will run out of money before Simon"
Me too with a pretty aggressive position for me, but still sitting on an smaller SPG position, since they seem priced a little optimistically, and 20% off could happen in a week.
WTF about the martial arts studios and dance studios and build-a-bear studios, and hair fashion outlets, and cell phone stores, and, ...
Even with economy uncertain, entrepreneurs starting businesses ERROR: File Not Found
Nationwide, however, several studies have concluded that new business formation does not fluctuate significantly with the economic cycle.
"The new businesses are slightly fewer and smaller, but you don't see the huge, pronounced effects that you might expect," said Brian Headd, an economist with the U.S. Small Business Administration.
Perhaps more important than raw numbers, the mindset has changed.
"I think the key ingredient that's different from three years ago is that you have to be a great deal more careful to understand who you market to," said Ross Lagattuta, chairman of the local chapter of Service Corps of Retired Executives.
"You can't shotgun it like you used to in the boom times and not pay attention to the kind of people you are trying to attract as customers."
Operations in general must also be executed with greater precision and discipline.
"In better times when there were significant bottom-line opportunities, you could have a hiccup or two and still be competitive," Vierra said. "Now, you have to be adamant about the P&L (profit and loss) statement being as trim and tight as possible."
Didn't you assure us earlier this year that CRE was not as overbuilt as RRE? Well, your assessment of CRE is as bad as your estimate of the housing demand being 1.7M, annually. Oh, well, you are a smart guy and will learn over time.
I cant wait to see what you say when the recession turns out to be severe. I am sure that you will say no depression. Once in depression, you will say nothing like the Great depression. You will keep downplaying until evidence becomes obvious.
The big discount stores also are taking a bite from department stores.
Wal-Mart reported a 5.8 percent increase in sales in June from the previous year, its best June performance since 2002. At department stores, though, same-store sales or those at stores opened at least a year dropped 4.1 percent.
The shock waves from store closings are felt by employees, customers and by non-retailing companies of all kinds. Factory orders are cut, railroads and trucking companies lose cargoes, and newspapers and other media see advertising revenues shrink.
Even in strong economies, retailers close stores that don't meet expectations, Krugman said, but closings generally accelerate in weak economies like the current one.
That's just part of the natural flow of doing business that you do see some consolidation happen in the industry. We are seeing that now, he said.
Malls and shopping centers also lose business.
Vacancies at enclosed malls in 76 large U.S. markets have risen from 5.9 percent in the first quarter of 2008 to 6.3 percent in the second quarter, the highest level since early 2002, according to a survey by Reis Inc. that was reported in The Wall Street Journal.
Open-air retail centers with so-called big-box stores fared even worse, with vacancies climbing from 7.7 percent to 8.2 percent in the second quarter, the highest tally since 1995.
But Tavio Headley, an economist with ATA, said that while that is a positive sign, the main reason this year's numbers look good is because things were so dismal last year. It doesn't mean 2008 is especially robust.
"Things were so bad last year it doesn't take much to show a year-over-year improvement," he said.
"We believe the tonnage volumes will probably stay volatile as the weakness in the housing market continues, if not worsens, and energy prices continue to set new records."
Tom White, spokesman for the Association of American Railways in Washington, D.C., also said it is too early to draw conclusions from any improvements reported so far in the rail industry.
"It's really very much of a mixed bag, and it's very difficult to draw any conclusion at this point" he said.
In contrast to Union Pacific, Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. reported a 19 percent decline in net income in the past quarter compared with a year earlier largely because of environmental cleanups. Still, its profits were better than Wall Street analysts expected.
Both the trucking and rail industries are seeing decreased business from the slowdown in housing construction and increased business from manufacturing exports that result from the weaker dollar.
" Once in depression, you will say nothing like the Great depression. You will keep downplaying until evidence becomes obvious."
_ just a reminder, during the Great Depression the unemployment was over 20%, demand for capital consumer goods virtually diminished and financial system pretty much collapsed.
It's a very long shot to call our current economic environment anything close to the economic situation in early 30's.
The depression like that is possible however still very improbable.
However if the Chinese and rest of the world over-react and start putting the trade restrictions as happened during the 30's, we will walk one step closer to it, and they will be screwed to much higher degree.
DeBartolo, Jr. is interesting as well. Former owner of the SF '49ers. He was caught bribing a LA Governor for a casino license. His dad was into gambling too, but seemed to prefer horseracing.
I've always wondered about the outlet stores. Do they really have better deals?
We've hit those in Camarillo and others outside Barstow for some good deals, but you can count on one hand how many times we've been in them over the past decade.
Oh... and GGP boasths Mervyn's as an anchor tenant in 10 of its malls. Who will step up and take their spot? Empty anchor stores are not a shining beacon of prosperity at malls.
Maybe Apple could try being an anchor tenant. Imagine how many square feet of iPhones and iPods they could display.
"you can count on one hand how many times we've been in them over the past decade"
The past decade was quite good in terms of discressionary income and travel volumes. Driving vacations and long trips in general are, well, going the way of the dinosaur. I don't see J6P driving 70mi in his truck to see if there are deals that he can dump even more money into trinkets. Far flung outlet malls are the canary in a coal mine.
I disagree with CR that office property was not as overbuilt as retail and lodging since I prefer to includ the late 90's overbuilding as part of a "double-top" with the current buildup. I think all three types are doomed.
What is it with Italian Americans and malls? This Caruso fellow that did the Calabasas Commons, The Grove, and Americana -- he's got Frank Sinatra playing 24/7 on the loudspeakers at Americana, the new "european town with included piazza."
Americana is bizarre. It's in Glendale, first of all. It's got condos over retail, all priced in the $1m range. In Glendale. The units look completely empty.
From my experience with outlets, it's a way of selling off TQTOs (top quality throw outs). Factory seconds.
Incidentally, thrift stores in toney towns or neighborhoods, or near the better hospitals, have much better goods to choose from, and often cheaper than outlets.
Speaking of Sebastian, it's just peachy keen how you blogging types are so much more tolerant of divergent opinions than the folks over in the mainstream. All are welcome here, provided their perspective ranges somewhere between disaster and outright doom.
While Sebastian's prediction of no recession isn't looking great, it has yet to be formally disproven by the fact (remeber those pesky critters?). Meanwhile the doom crowd has yet to be proven right either. Looks like a draw so far.
Interesting, I hadn't thought about fuel costs potentially counter-balancing the price savings at outlet malls. I looked at outlets as I did Wal-Mart, expecting a mild pullback due to the downsizing of people's budgets, but the driving distance factor is something I had not considered...
WTF is this QSPE shit about with these folks?
The following is an excerpt from a 10-K/A SEC Filing, filed by RADIAN GROUP INC on 7/15/2008
The Company, as transferor, regularly securitized mortgage loans and securities
by transferring the loans or securities to entities ("Transferees") which
generally qualified under GAAP as "qualifying special purpose entities"
("QSPEs") as defined under Statement of Financial Accounting Standards ("SFAS")
No. 140, Accounting for Transfers and Servicing of Financial Assets and
Extinguishment of Liabilities-a replacement of FASB Statement No. 125 ("Off
Balance Sheet Securitizations"). The QSPEs issue investment grade and
non-investment grade securities. Generally, the investment grade securities were
sold to third party investors, and the Company retained the non-investment grade
securities. If a transaction meets the requirements for sale recognition under
GAAP, and the Transferee meets the requirements to be a QSPE, the assets
transferred to the QSPE are considered sold, and gain or loss is recognized. The
gain or loss is based on the price of the securities sold and the estimated fair
value of any securities and servicing rights retained over the cost basis of the
assets transferred net of transaction costs. If subsequently the Transferee
fails to continue to qualify as a QSPE, or the Company obtains the right to
purchase assets out of the Transferee, then the SPE would be evaluated for
consolidation under FIN 46R and the Company may have to include in its financial
statements such assets, or potentially, all the assets of such Transferee.
While Sebastian's prediction of no recession isn't looking great, it has yet to be formally disproven by the fact (remeber those pesky critters?). Meanwhile the doom crowd has yet to be proven right either. Looks like a draw so far.
Forget the Trillions of dollars that has been thrown at the housing market and yeah I'd call it a draw,
Upstate NY should be benefitting from the exchange rate. Plenty of people from Canada, along with people from down-state, come down to shop.
Meanwhile, the rich people in the fancy Tysons 2 Mall in VA are still shopping and getting $15 lunches at the food court...unbelievable.
In our biz we deal with retailers. Some of our customers are barely hanging on. However, some smaller, Midwestern customers are rollin. Most of their customers (farmers etc) are enjoying the higher prices for corn and other crops. Of course these retailers are carrying little debt and run tight ships. Novel concept that.
Tim- If you want to be a prognosticator, then you need to consider all possible inputs and outcomes. Government intervention was among the most obvious things that should have been in any model.
lama-There are some Canadian shoppers in Buffalo, though border delays and gas prices limit this quite a bit. Albany is almost 4 hours from Montreal. At the mall the article is discussing, Canadians are probably no more than 1% of the customers.
My point is that faulty data and gov't intervention can delay anything.
On your point spoke to a guy (former GS banker) who predicted all this in 2005 even the bailout of the GSE's (which they are not done bailing out BTW) his prediction, we are in the forth inning of a 4 year recession. 2007 was the "prolouge".
The USD will strengthen against most currencies, esp. the Euro, over the next two years and dumbfound most commenters here. It pays to be contrarian while keeping ones head in reality; the Eurozone is heading into recession, and the Euro is grossly overvalued vis-a-vis the dollar. Place your bets.
In my opinion the CRE bust should be considered as a downward leg of the economic correction,(or as a separate car of the train wreck) even though it will be hard to disentangle its effects on unemployment, bank failures, real estate prices, and the stock market.
Although CRE is smaller than RRE, the CRE bust will provide some spectacular bankruptcies and will probably directly cause some bank failures. Given the increasing fragility of the financial structure, the effects of another blow could be serious.
Disagree completely the dollar was in a down trend over 8 years once people realized that
A.The US will have to import more goods to operate
B. Larger structural fiscal deficits that will continue to grow.
C. The need for persistently low interest rates to achieve "trend" growth.
Housing just accelerated the selling of the dollar and discourage more buying
Sen. Christopher Dodd (D., Conn.) said he wants to meet Tuesday morning with the Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Steve Preston to discuss quick implementation of the bill.
he American Banker reported Friday, citing an unnamed HUD spokesperson, that final regulations for the foreclosure prevention program could be proposed early next year and finalized next summer.
That would be much later than the Oct. 1 date that Dodd and House Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank (D., Mass.) have cited for the program to begin.
Frank, in a statement released by his office Saturday, said lawmakers would work with the administration to get the program in place as rapidly as possible.
And I want to urge the (mortgage) servicers now that this is about to become law, to show some forbearance for troubled borrowers who may qualify for the program, Frank said. (Updated to include HUD and Frank comments.)
Andrew McCain, son of John McCain, has resigned from the Board of Silver State Bancorp, after being on it just 6 mos. "For personal reasons."
SSBX hasn't been doing terribly well as of late. While I know we all like to spend more time with our families, but is this a pre-emptive move to avoid the embarrassment of McCain's son serving on the Board of a failed bank?
12th-I like the redesign of the mall. I like the LL Bean store. It's one of the few stores where I actually find things I need or want. That doesn't mean that I would buy Feldman stock. They have a ton of accounting and management issues that date back years. By the way, when do you want the car I borrowed from you and sold back?
Tim-Why do people here always talk about the US fiscal deficit and ignore the fact that Europe and Japan have deficits that are as bad or worse on a per capita/per GDP basis?
The fastest inflation in 17 years and a fourth straight quarter of U.S. profit declines are turning debt sold by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into the favorites of the world's biggest bond investors.
Pacific Investment Management Co., T. Rowe Price Group Inc., RiverSource Institutional Advisors and U.S. Bancorp's FAF Advisors, which oversee more than $1 trillion, say the government's decision to stand behind the beleaguered U.S. housing finance companies and their yields compared with Treasuries make the bonds a buy. The Senate approved legislation on July 26 allowing the U.S. to inject capital into Fannie and Freddie. President George W. Bush plans to sign it into law.
File this under "WTF". Talk about looking a gift horse in the mouth. Some people are destined to be financially illiterate, careless, whatever as this story shows.
The short version - this family got an "extreme home makeover" back in 2005. As part of that, the family was given $100,000 on top of having their mortgage paid off.
Fast forward to 15 months ago when they took out a mortgage for $450,000 against the house - said mortgage is presently in default and a foreclosure is pending.
Thank you congresscritters - these are exactly the type of people who need saving - unfortunately they'll need rescue again and again and again.
The article and all its gory details - with video of the home can be found here. I'm sure Dodd will lose sleep over this deserving family if they get foreclosed before his bill gets implemented.
Tim-Why do people here always talk about the US fiscal deficit and ignore the fact that Europe and Japan have deficits that are as bad or worse on a per capita/per GDP basis?
My understanding is that their debt is repaid to its citizens with interest whereas we ship money off to other countries...
Anonymous,
Dodd is right to be concerned that HUD will take forever to implement the Housing Rescue bill. After a lifetime inside the Beltway I can say with confidence that HUD is among the slowest and most disorganized Departments in the US Government.
I just don't think the financials are really showing enough health,'' said Brian Rauscher, director of portfolio strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York.There's going to be some opportunities coming up, but I just don't think we're done with the downside yet.''
Bear Markets
All of the 23 developed nations in the MSCI World Index except for Canada have experienced bear-market plunges of 20 percent or more since September as credit losses surged and record commodity prices stoked inflation. Brazil this week became the 23rd out of 25 developing countries in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index to enter a bear market. Only Jordan and Morocco avoided such slumps.
.S. lost jobs in July for the seventh straight month, a sign the economy may weaken after tax rebates boosted growth in the second quarter, economists said before reports this week.
Payrolls probably shrank by 75,000, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey ahead of a Labor Department report on Aug. 1. The economy expanded at a 2.3 percent annual rate from April to June, more than twice the pace of the prior quarter, other figures may show.
Sustained job losses will take a toll on Americans already burdened by record gasoline costs, plunging home values, and shrinking access to credit. The weakening labor market reinforces concern consumer spending will falter once the cash from the tax rebates is used up.
With the tax rebates, we essentially put our troubles off for another day,'' said Maxwell Clarke, chief U.S. economist at IDEAGlobal Inc. in New York.The weakening employment market will definitely hurt the consumer's ability to spend.'
About my car. Call me when gas hits $1.50. As soon as we start drilling off of FLA that should be no problem. Maybe some more tax breaks for the oil companies, too. Until then, it burns oil, add a quart every 1,000 miles. Thanks.
That LL bean is pretty weak but still the best thing in that mall. Take my car up to Maine and check out the Mothership in Freehold. That is one of the few retail establishments I visit that doesn't put me in a foul mood.
I'm willing to bet that since Feldman is tanking that their projections for Colonie were probably a tad optimistic.
I may go long 100 shares just to do my part to help the community.
Ain't got no place to lay your head
Somebody came and took your bed
Don't worry, be happy
The land lord say your rent is late
He may have to litigate
Don't worry, be happy
Lood at me I am happy
Don't worry, be happy
Here I give you my phone number
When you worry call me
I make you happy
Don't worry, be happy
Ain't got no cash, ain't got no style
Ain't got not girl to make you smile
But don't worry be happy
Cause when you worry
Your face will frown
And that will bring everybody down
So don't worry, be happy (now).....
12th-I've been to LL Bean in Maine. Actually Campmor on Route 17 in NJ is much better than Bean. But I like having something nearby.
I'm all for drilling; right now, the fantasy that there are huge stores of oil off the coast is being used as an excuse not to develop alternatives. So the quicker we drill and don't find much, the quicker we can get down to real solutions.
A private report on Aug. 1 may show manufacturing cooled in July. The Institute for Supply Management's factory index slipped to 49.2 from 50.2 the prior month, according to the Bloomberg survey median. A reading of 50 is the dividing line between growth and contraction.
Other reports this week will probably provide more evidence housing remains in a slump. Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas probably fell in the 12 months ended May by the most on record, economists project a July 29 report from S&P/Case- Shiller will show.
The mall is still a good place to go to look at hot chicks. If the stores put chairs in their windows rather than merchandise, they'd probably attract more customers.
Glass floors on the second level would also help.
Perhaps I should start a consulting business?
Currently Smoking Cannabis
Why do people here always talk about the US fiscal deficit and ignore the fact that Europe and Japan have deficits that are as bad or worse on a per capita/per GDP basis?
ahead,
I have friends in Montreal who are always talking about some mall in upstate NY they visit (lots of outlets). I must have my malls mixed.
Thanks for the correction.
Laura Richardson's friends have the power not only to change history, but to keep her sailing along as Congress' most visible and unrepentant deadbeat. She did send out a flyer to her constituents telling them they should forgive though.
I wonder if Mr. York's dropping of his lawsuit had anything to do with the recent fundraiser held for Richardson. How much of this money went to squash the lawsuit and buy his silence. Pelosi commanded her to "get her house in order," and presto magico, so she did.
Would someone please check national property records to see what other properties she owns and is defaulting on? So far we've only been able to count three. When a reporter asked her about this, she declined to comment. Ah, delightful country where our reps are being financed by strip club owners.
If it turns out that she owns a mall, or has business relations with people that do, this has been on-topic.
12th-I've been to LL Bean in Maine. Actually Campmor on Route 17 in NJ is much better than Bean.
Yeah, but it is in NJ. When i run a cost benefit analysis there is usually one cost that outweighs any benefits. Does this require me to go to New Jersey?
Mike, at 5500 S.F. I think they probably have a better chance of getting on their feet again letting it foreclose and renting a SFO sized property. Can you imagine what it costs to maintain it and keep the lights/heat/water on, not to mention taxes?
"Tim-Why do people here always talk about the US fiscal deficit and ignore the fact that Europe and Japan have deficits that are as bad or worse on a per capita/per GDP basis?"
ATC Why do people ask about only fiscal deficits and ignore massive trade deficits and negative savings rates that also have destabilizing effects on governments & currency ?
Bohemia, N.Y.-based Infinity Funding Group has launched Ponte Capital, a fund that is lending money to developers who need financing in the period between a projects' final approval and construction. "Because of the economic situation, a lot of guys are sitting around on projects that should be going ...
Because of the economic situation, a lot of guys are sitting around on projects that should be going forward. We're stepping in to fill a gap."
Paul Tantillo, v.p. of Bohemia, N.Y.-based Infinity Funding Group, on the firm's new fund, which is lending money to developers who need financing in the period between a projects' final approval and construction.
Westfield. I'd love to see them out of business. I cannot stand their tactic of buy out shopping center, change the names to glorify themselves even though everyone in the community knows the mall by the name it has had for 20-odd years. There is branding and then there is branding that goes so far beyond ego that it's just plain obnoxious. It's the same type of ego that drives companies to want to put their name on a stadium and ruin it forever for the locals.
Increased volatility in the office and retail sectors have led to a two basis point increase in U.S. CMBS delinquencies, according to the latest Fitch Ratings loan delinquency index. While overall delinquencies increased only mildly for the fifth consecutive month, the retail and office sectors led the index with net increases of $70.5 million and $62.2 million, respectively.
Despite relatively stable performance to date, Fitch remains concerned about the retail sector.
"An increase in retail bankruptcies and a continued decline in consumer disposable income are evident, though they have yet to impact retail performance," said Susan Merrick, managing director of Fitch. "High energy and commodity prices, rising unemployment, housing market weakness, and lower credit availability continue to negatively impact retail sales and are expected to dampen retail sector growth going forward. Recent store closings, including continued bankruptcy filings of tenants such as specialty retailer Linens 'n Things and discount-apparel retailer Steve & Barry's, will impact retail performance."
Retail loan delinquencies increased 25.7% month-over-month, due to the addition of 15 newly delinquent loans located across 12 different states. Loans secured by retail properties represent 28.1% of the Fitch rated universe, and 13.2% of the overall loan delinquency index. Isolating the delinquent retail loans and comparing them to all retail loans in the Fitch-rated universe, the sector's delinquency index has ticked up slightly to 0.21%, from 0.17% in May.
Fitch notes that of the newly delinquent loans, approximately one-third came as a result of maturity default, with borrowers unable to refinance precisely at their maturity date. Approximately 11.1% of all loans delinquent in June were classified as non-performing matured. A majority of non-performing matured loans continue to pay in full or to extend their terms within 60 days of their maturity date.
The seasoned delinquency index, which omits transactions with less than one year of seasoning, rose by one basis point, ending the month at 0.47%. Five transactions totaling $20.5 billion became newly seasoned. Currently there are three delinquent loans totaling $19.5 million which correspond to the newly seasoned deals.
The action he's referring to, I think, is the fast-track nationalization of the GSE's.
That might even be something that helps, but that he's using the language of marketing/pr troubles me. Is he an economist or a salesman? Is there a difference.
Note also, that just as his blurb on RGE Monitor does not mention his affiliation with D.E. Shaw, the blurb at the bottom of this article does not mention his affiliation with RGE Monitor.
Citing a combination of poor liquidity, substantial debt service, extremely challenging real estate market conditions and other legal and financial issues, Lake at Las Vegas Joint Venture LLC, the master developer of the Lake Las Vegas Resort filed to reorganize under Chapter 11 of the Bankruptcy Code.
LLV Holdco LLC, a subsidiary of Las Vegas-based Atalon Group, assumed ownership and management control of the master-planned community in early January 2008 after the former ownership group defaulted on approximately $540 million in loans in 2007.
Frankly, I don't have a clue why the country needs anything beyond Costco, Sams Club & Walmart. May be a Saks / Nieman Marcus or Nordstrum for the upper crust. Everything else can be nicely done via ecommerce a la Amazon/ebay/Craigslist. Time to kill the wasteful "retail industry".
Did I read recently that China now has something like 100 sq ft. of mall for every citizen? I wish there was a more efficient connection between my brain and the internet.
About 200 to 300 people joined a melee that began inside a Raleigh mall and spilled outside the shopping center during the fight, authorities said Sunday.
Raleigh Police Department spokesman Jim Sughrue said the gang-related brawl began inside Triangle Town Center Mall on Saturday night about an hour before closing. Off-duty officers working at the mall requested assistance, and authorities from the Wake County Sheriff's Office and the N.C. Highway Patrol also responded.
Sughrue said a 15-year-old was stabbed during the incident. He was taken to the hospital with non-life threatening injuries. A police officer was also injured with a "significant" cut to his knee that he suffered during a chase. He was taken to the hospital for treatment and is expected to recover, Sughrue said.
Authorities said the fracas was "gang-related," though Sughrue declined to say why authorities reached that conclusion. Raleigh police have previously said examples of gang-related activity include actions that would establish a gang's territory, suppress another gang or get revenge.
Well, if we are going to save just a little we are going to have to spend less, and that means less retail space.
And by the way, people like to visit market places and look at stuff and each other, and have for at least as long as cities have existed--say 8000years.
"Why do people here always talk about the US fiscal deficit and ignore the fact that Europe and Japan have deficits that are as bad or worse on a per capita/per GDP basis?"
I heard an economist reply to that question with, "Because the US has always been the country with the strong economy and sound policies to be the sanctuary for the rest of the world's economy. If there were uncertainties in some other market, investors always had the US."
I have been looking at mall related violence and gangs, and these stories are too foul, and IMHO, shopping at a mall is very low on my list. I used to see people posting at Yahoo about all the violence around walmarts.... great world we live in. I like to thank Bush for the escalation, but this problem is seriously on the rise!
Have no fear, President Obama will be meeting tomorrow with Warren, Rubin, Jon Corzine, Labor Leaders, and a few other experienced old salts to tweak a little policy.
Don,
How much more help getting on their feet do they need? They were given $100,000 plus a fully paid for house. Don't care that it was 5,500 sq ft. They should have figured out whether or not they could afford the utilities/taxes with no mortgage payment hanging over them.
They took $450,000 out of the house 15 months ago and its in foreclosure. Where did the money go?
Most galling of all is this womans phucking sense of entitlement. She says, "Whats going to happen is instead of keep paying my mortgage, Im going to take my money and not pay my mortgage because Im being harassed, said Harper."
So at some point in time (15 months ago) some bank felt it was worth at least $450,000 -presumably they could have sold it for close to that - no phuck that - they could have sold it for half and made out like bandits - they owned the house free and clear after someone gave it to them and now she's going to take HER MONEY and stop paying the mortgage because the bank is harassing her?
I'm sorry - I don't want my tax dollars to help her in any way - yet that's what's going to happen - albeit indirectly.
Of course the US is phenomenally overbuilt. BUT be careful comparing the US to places like Sweden, France and the UK. Very different density and auto use patterns - so it's far cheaper to buy space here and people tend to buy in big lots. High price of oil may change this.
Ok, I'm offering a mao jacket and cap to the first person who can come up with an accurate estimate of total retail square footage in ROC. Or even total mall square footage.
By the way, any store that can't come up with a better name than "Linens 'n Things" deserved to go out of business years ago. "Things", what things?
Aheadofthecurve | 07.27.08 - 4:53 pm | #
My family refers to the place as 'More Stuff 2 Dust'.
Yeah, those two are the Southern CA properties she's defaulted on numerous times. The one that got foreclosed and magically unforclosed is in Sacramento. But what is she involved with outside of CA, residential or commercial, in her name or not. That's where it gets tough. On top of that, supposedly her friends can make official documents magically change as well. Like when she was running for election reports were heard that the registrar-recorders office "mistakenly" published ballots with only her name on them.
Tim-Why do people here always talk about the US fiscal deficit and ignore the fact that Europe and Japan have deficits that are as bad or worse on a per capita/per GDP basis?
Aheadofthecurve | 07.27.08 - 7:40 pm | #
Because they don't run current account deficits anywhere near as bad and that is the killer - Japan runs a huge surplus.
It isn't a problem for a country to run a huge gov't deficit IF it is funded by its own citizens (Europe & Japan mostly qualify)... that requires a positive national savings rate.
It is a huge problem if they fund their deficits by others outside their borders - that means we have to produce goods & trade to generate surpluses to offset the payments OR get become poorer.
Japan probably qualifies and I believe Germany does as well. On the other hand, Italy ran a deficit of 7 billion euros in May 2008 and France was close to 5 billion. US is somewhere around $ 60 billion/month. Given the differences in size, at current exchange rates, those are not that different. With oil prices where they are, it's difficult to see any of the G-8 countries, except possibly Canada, maintaining surpluses.
"... "Why do people here always talk about the US fiscal deficit and ignore the fact that Europe and Japan have deficits that are as bad or worse on a per capita/per GDP basis?" ...
Let me also add that no other country in the OECD comes even close to the U.S.' use of off balance sheet items that aren't included in the deficit.
When making comparisons you can never use the fiscal deficit figures but always rather the national debt.
BTW, you are completely off base with your figures.
France and Italy (with among the worst deficits in the Euro zone) have less than half the trade deficit/gdp ratio of the U.S. and a very significant part of their imports are from within the Euro zone, i.e. no currency conversion.
As of April, there were about 217 U.S. outlet centers totaling 57 million square feet of space, where about 305 outlet chains operate 11,546 stores, according to Value Retail News, published by the International Council of Shopping Centers.
Thirty-five more outlet centers totaling 11.8 million square feet are planned to be open by 2010.
With 601 stores, Jones Apparel Group Inc operated the most outlet stores. Phillips-Van Heusen Corp was second at 553 outlet stores.
California was home to 33 outlet centers, the most of any state, followed by Florida, 14; Texas, 13; and Georgia, 10.
Chelsea Premium Outlet Centers, which Simon bought in 2004, has been a great profit producer for its parent. In the first quarter, Chelsea's average sales per square foot rose 5.4 percent, compared with 0.8 percent at Simon's regional malls. The outlets' average rent was up 6 percent to $26.32 per square foot compared with 4.3 percent or $37.73 percent at the malls.
Tanger, the only publicly traded pure-play outlet center owner, saw its net operating income at centers it has owned for at least a year rise 5.7 percent in the first quarter of 2008, up from a 3 percent rise a year earlier.
With food and gasoline prices soaring, outlet centers and their retail tenants may feel a double punch from the economic downturn, as consumers cut back on spending for all but necessary items.
The privately held company has developed 8 million square feet in 21 outlet centers across the country. Sales per square foot for 2007 were $363.
"The Ellenton center is one of their hot ones," said Linda Humphers, editor of the International Council of Shopping Centers' Valu Retail News.
Upscale shoppers seek deals, too
Prime Retail, like several other outlet center developers, has focused on attracting a more upscale, higher-end tenant mix that appeals to shoppers, she said.
Neiman Marcus Last Call is slated to be the anchor of Prime Outlets at Ellenton's expansion, which will have space for about 30 stores.
Prime Outlets' success in the past, current and near future economic environment is not unusual in the outlet center world.
"Outlets are counter-cyclical," Humphers said. "When people cut back, it is not on quality and brands. It's what they spend on quality and brands."
From > June 2005:
Gordon predicts that the Piers sales per square foot will exceed $600 and could one day rival the Forum Shops legendary numbers among the highest in the country at $1,300 per square foot. (By comparison, the national average for regional malls is only about a quarter of that, at $341 per square foot.)
"I like the malls that are enclosed," Stamps said.
Macerich sales-per-square-foot numbers also tell the story of Westcor's indoor mall success.
Arthur Coppola, Macerich president and chief executive officer, said in an earnings conference call earlier this year that Westcor malls' overall sales average was "well over $540 a square foot" in 2007.
Sales per square foot at Westcor's top performing enclosed malls, are $611 at Arrowhead, $653 at Chandler and $736 at Scottsdale. Although sales at enclosed malls in lower income parts of the Valley are below $400 per square foot, Coppola said Macerich values those properties because they represent economic diversity.
"A good mall nationally does $400 per square foot," said Scott Nelson, a Westcor vice president for development.
"If you look at Chandler and Scottsdale, they are cranking on all cylinders. We don't believe the enclosed mall is broken by any means."
"The really good retailers know this is a short-term downturn. Long term, Phoenix is a huge growth area," she said.
Susan Valot: Levitz, Linens n Things, Shoe Pavilion Those are just a few of the store chains that have declared bankruptcy over the past few months. Mervyns reportedly may be next in line. And other chains, like Home Depot, JoAnns, Gap, and Old Navy, have opted to close stores in order to tighten their purse straps.
The International Council of Shopping Centers predicts 144,000 stores will close nationwide before the end of this year. Thats up 7 percent from last year. Its the largest year-to-year jump since the group started keeping records of such things 14 years ago. But the council points out the overall number is still fewer than the average number of closings between 1993 and 2001 a sign, it says, that the retail industry is better prepared to weather economic storms.
As of April, there were about 217 U.S. outlet centers totaling 57 million square feet of space, where about 305 outlet chains operate 11,546 stores, according to Value Retail News, published by the International Council of Shopping Centers.
The dollar recently fell as low as 107.35 yen against the yen. Earlier, it declined to intraday lows against the euro and U.K. pound. The euro rose to $1.5768, and the U.K. pound hit $1.9947.
Glimcher has been trying to sell Eastland mall in Charlotte for a couple of years now. This was a premier mall in the 1970s - it drew people from surrounding counties and the neighborhoods around it were the growth area of the day.
Latest news is they are walking away from it, and asking a trustee to dispose of the property. There just arent't any serious buyers. The neighborhoods nearby have turned into Section 8 rentals. Crime has become a problem at the mall with several shootings over the years.
The anchors to the mall have been slowly leaving. (Only Sears is still there, and it's essentially an "outlet" Sears with very little traffic.) What remains in the mall are shoe store and t-shirts places, and the food court.
It's a shame to see this happen to a mall that still seems to be in structually good shape. But it goes to show, how quickly an American neighborhood can age and become neglected.
GGP is at the top of the mall owner steamin' heap. They report next week. Should be an interesting conf call...
Times they are a changing. My "town" is loosing 2 Starbucks, 1 Linen's and things and 1 Sharper Images and 2 Disney stores. The Sharper image is empty and will probably stay that way since there are other vacancies around it, The Compusa is open but will probably close soon and the space it occupies is huge. The starbucks operated small spaces so I am more optimistic about someone coming in and taking over the space. CR how bad do things have to get before we stop calling the CRE market merely "soft" and start using a more forceful adjective.
GGP = King of the HEAP
Is anyone expecting the CRE bust to be the driver of the next significant leg down in the economy, or is it just part of the confluence of events that's leading giving us recessionary growth for the foreseeable future?
KKR Plans to Go Public, Valuing Firm at as Much as $15 Billion
KKR Plans to Go Public With Value Up to $15 Billion (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Like bringing a keg to an AA meeting...
is it just part of the confluence of events that's leading giving us recessionary growth for the foreseeable future?
this is going to hurt the upper class more. Everyone I met who drives an Aston Martin was a developer of strip malls or something to due with retail complexes.
I think The housing bubble never popped and The fed is doing all it can to pump it back up and keep the fun going.
Window shopping is the new shopping.
JPMorgan Chase, Lenders May Gain New Borrowers from Housing Law
JPMorgan Chase, Lenders May Gain New Borrowers from Housing Law - Bloomberg.com
Bankers and their lobbyists generally back the measure and say a tax credit for first-time buyers will create new borrowers, helping to trim an oversupply of available homes and slow the drop in home prices. The FHA program will let them cut the number of bad loans on their books and held by investors.
Oh... and GGP boasths Mervyn's as an anchor tenant in 10 of its malls. Who will step up and take their spot? Empty anchor stores are not a shining beacon of prosperity at malls.
Simon Property Group, the largest mall operator in the US reports tomorrow morning. If their results are weak, you can expect GGP's (2nd largest mall operator) results to be horrific.
This week will bring many more CRE posts from CR, and I for one look very much forward to them!
It must be real bad, what's the hurry right now..It's been happening or 18 months.hmmm..
U.S. Housing, Bank Regulators to Meet on Housing Bill (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
This is going to be another example of shutting the barn door after the horses have left...
The debt will stop preforming, rates will spike, refi's will not be available, (a lot of mortgages have been bullet loans) and defaults will rise more....
Remind anyone of any recent events?
..................
Dodd, a Connecticut Democrat, said he is ``terribly disappointed'' that Housing and Urban Development Secretary Steve Preston has said it would take as long as a year to implement regulations to provide help for almost 400,000 homeowners at risk of foreclosure.
You see, Congress passed it fast and sloppy. They want it implemented fast and sloppy.
Hey, maybe there's time to squeeze in the commercial bailout bill too before the election. We need those stores open to keep the consumer spending, and the conomy moving!
GGP has 200+ malls in the US, so the Mervyn's hit will adversely affect 5% of their mall properties.
Look for guidance from SPG (Mon), GGP, KIM, and EQR (all Wed) to be the most important data from the conference calls.
Erik, Bearish positions on Mall owners/operators ? Seems you have been doing some work.
The mall is still a good place to go to look at hot chicks. If the stores put chairs in their windows rather than merchandise, they'd probably attract more customers.
Glass floors on the second level would also help.
Perhaps I should start a consulting business?
I live a few mile from Colonie Center. Parking is scarce whenever I go there. I can't say how much people are spending, but it doesn't seem traffic is down.
By the way, any store that can't come up with a better name than "Linens 'n Things" deserved to go out of business years ago. "Things", what things?
SPG, AVB, CLI, EQR, BRE, GGP all have meat on them. It might be time to buy some Puts
As I suspected the congresscum provided no funding to FHA to do the extra work, and yet they have to do it at full speed.
These people are totally divorced from real life.
ATC - Your anecdotes are beyond silly. You sound more like Sebastian every day. Store sales are falling despite the stimulus. Stores are failing, because they are heavily debt-laden, blindly levering up for that bullish sales growth that is in full reverse.
Mozo Maz writes: "Hey, maybe there's time to squeeze in the commercial bailout bill too before the election."
Your prescient with this one. Sadly so. . .
Barely writes: "You sound more like Sebastian every day."
Barely, you're a mean person.
An unscientific report from Northeast Louisiana: The Pecanland Mall in Monroe, not on the main drag for sure, used to be packed shoulder to shoulder with people, people, people.
Now you have lots of room to walk and a growing number of holes that remain vacant. Starbucks is closing their store there. The anchors still up and running, but the grim fact is that they are struggling. Sears, Dillards, Belks and Penney's. Loaded with inventory and markdowns dominate.
Some of the replacements that are filling the holes are local folks selling comestibles and consumable crap. The operators have a lean and hungry look about them.
I travel throughout north Louisiana and southern Arkansas. I don't have much of a feel for what's happening except that small towns that have hung together are hanging tough so far.
Still, I see lots of evidence of new
cre construction, strip centers and stand alone three or four buildings in a block. The signs are up that announce financing by several local type banks. These same banks are also touting free checking, 5% interest on checking, above average returns on CD's, etc.
For me, the signs are there. For most folks, they haven't a clue. Everything's fine, it's a buying opportunity, etc.
Oh, well.
"It's not a very happy time to be building a new shopping center, that's for sure,"
Then why are they still building them????
We have a Simon mall in my area that is reportedly 50% vacant. The other malls here have multiple vacancies and there are no kiosks left.
Today, my local newspaper reported that a developer is taking a local municipality to court because they won't give him a permit to build yet another shopping center. I think they're doing him a favor!
it'll be a bad day Monday:
Sub-prime losses hit National Australia Bank - Telegraph
I intended to post this link as a bit of inspiration, but there are two things to keep in mind while listening:
a) That whole empire thing came at a great cost to the rest of the world
b) He sounds really depressed while delivering this pep talk.
YouTube
- Winston churchill "finest hour"
Lightly considered metaphor of the day:
If we think of the world economy as a megamall and the biggest anchor tenant goes dark, this does not bode well for the rest of the tenants.
deadmalls DOT com
Check this site often to see if your local mall has shown up.
Clickable map is here -
deadmalls DOT com: Feature
The guy who runs this site is going to need more server space ...
Bosch--your cat extrudes gold? My cats sure don't.
Sheesh! No, of course not. If they did, I'd be lolling about in Tahiti.
But in keeping with their desire for privacy, I (usually) keep their artistic talents under wraps and take the credit to keep peace around here.
[No rain yet, just thunder and high winds. It's the rain that shorts out our wires.]
Scratch that. Storm rolled through. Took us out for a bit (like until now) rather than days like usual.
hot chicks will always need more tattoos and the mall is the place to go!
Bombay Co. has shut down?!!! Where am I gonna get my useless bamboo stuff?!
Aha, the answer is simple.
Unpave a parking lot and put up a paradise.
CRE is long lead time. Stuff being built today was fleshed out and financed 1-2 years ago. Lag a graph of residential and commercial about a year. Ominous.
A local retailer said that Mr Walendowski might now have difficulty getting his lawn mower repaired.
"Anything not factory recommended would void the warranty," said Dick Wagner, of Wagner's Garden Mart in Milwaukee.
BBC NEWS | Americas | US man charged for shooting mower
Hot Chick Mall!
A leading member of one of the most notorious clans of the Naples mafia has been arrested while shopping in Rome.
Local media name the man as Adriano Graziano, known as "The Teacher", who was detained without a fight as he left a designer clothes store
The anchors to the mall have been slowly leaving. (Only Sears is still there, and it's essentially an "outlet" Sears with very little traffic.)
What's supremely ironic is that Sears' share price is being held up solely on the value of its real estate. It went up last week while the market went down and has a higher p/e than Target or Walmart.
Several restaurants at a newer/high rent shoppong center near me have gone under. High gas prices equal fewer restaurant visits. When rent is so high, the lost volume kills the businesses in the margins. Without the rent, those shopping center will be in troulbe soon, too.
I wondered why Wilson leather didn't open its usual Christmas shop at the Merritt Island mall last year. I feel bad about this; I usually bought something each Christmas, either for myself or a gift. Didn't know they went under.
I will have to go spend some money at Dillard's!!! Some shoes perhaps. Every woman needs more shoes.
Lawyerliz AKA the Emelda Marcos of Merritt Island.
My wife has been know to sizably swing the quarterly results of Steinmart.
"The neighborhoods nearby have turned into Section 8 rentals. Crime has become a problem at the mall with several shootings over the years."
Originally intended as a means of getting selected individuals out of blight-ridden areas, Section 8 housing has unfortunately proven to be a death's blow to any neighborhood, no matter how healthy, as they're powerful generators of crime. Atlantic Monthly online recently carried an article on the links between the two.
Dillards, that's the place that hires off-duty cops to strangle African-American gentlemen. That never goes out of style.
"A local retailer said that Mr Walendowski might now have difficulty getting his lawn mower repaired."
He can probably find someone to shoot that sucker for him if he's willing to caugh up the bail money.
barely-Are you seriously telling me that "Linens 'n Things" is a good name for a store? Come on now. Even you can do better than that.
Don't you think it would be easier for states to legalize gambling so CRE can be turned into gaming areas. It would be a boon for local government and take up a fair bit of space in strip malls.
WAIT!
Do not despair here in Sarasota Florida at the corner of I-75 and University they are building a HUGE high end mall...you know one that will have needless markup and the rest...
However if you drive up highway 41 and head towards the airport it is a ghost town...with hundreds of empty condo units...yet the upscale mall is going forward!
bizarre
yet the upscale mall is going forward!
HOLD the line men!!!!
S&P 500 P/E is now around 18.
At bear market bottoms it's likely to be 6 or 7.
Corporate profits are now at a record high -- twice as large a percentage of GDP as their mean level.
So a 50% fall of earnings by reversion to the mean (even with no overshoot to the downside), along with a slide in the P/E to, say, 9, equates to stock prices 75% down.
That'll leave a mark.
"Dillards, that's the place that hires off-duty cops to strangle African-American gentlemen"
Ye think... Walking off with merchandise without going through the formality of paying and then resisting apprehension might have something to do with it ?
``We wrote this legislation specifically to bypass the normal rulemaking process,'' Dodd, chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, said ...
YAY...
Funny. The hub calls my shoe pile the Imelda Marcos Memorial Shoe Pile.
Really, there are far greater sinners than I in the shoe dept.
The hub calls my shoe pile the Imelda Marcos Memorial Shoe Pile.
I ask you if the needs of your children have suffered because of it?
The Camarillo Premium Outlet Mall is steel and girders in the process of adding 50 stores to the existing 120. Owned by Chelsea Premium Outlets, look at this map and be very afraid for them. Chelsea Premium Outlets - Our Centers
Really, there are far greater sinners than I in the shoe dept.
More than 200 pairs? If not, step aside and let Mrs.B show how it's done.
)
The daughter is 39, an architect in Boston, self supporting and graduated from U of Fla at Gainesville at 21 with no debt whatsoever. She did borrow money to attend MIT. I think it's paid off now. She paid off her very small house tore it down, and is now rebuilding. Not a good idea at this time, but again, her choice.
The son graduated from a Florida state school with near a 4.0 and owes less than $2000 for tuition. He too is self supporting. He wants a Masters in public health. We spring for college, but I think grad school is the kid's problem. Also both of them paid for a lot of their education; we made the daughter put half of her summer earnings away, and did the Fla tuition thing for the son; he wasn't ready for college and went in the army for 4 years and got more money for college and was turned thereby into a peacenik.
Aheadofthecurve,
You've got some seriously delusional koolade drinkers in your neck of the woods.
You got no money, and you, you got no home
Spinning wheel all alone
Talking about your troubles and you, you never learn
Ride a painted pony
let the spinning wheel tur
Rob Dawg
Love the part where you can plan your vaction around one of these crap outlets. HAhahaha. Time to go to plan B for these guys. Liz was being sarcastic but looks good to me...
Oh, Bosch, I am a shoe piker. Less than 50 pair, in fact less than 40, some of which are worn out and should be thrown away. Some of them are in Merritt Island, and some in Miami. And some, I suspect with one shoe in one place and the other in the other.
My real sin is books. Many many books. My hub and son are book maniacs too. I make no appologies for my book buying.
I just drove around UCI (O.C.)
Some of those CRE towers were just finished and looked really nice.
I mean in terms of building quality they probably beat rest of S.Cali office RE space.
Wonder if it makes sense to relocated from over- crowded downtown LA or climate unfriendly 101 corridor.
Rob: The outlets are owned by Simon.
I've always wondered about the outlet stores. Do they really have better deals? Gladys dragged me into one years ago and the prices seemed about the same if not higher for similar merchandise elsewhere.
Aye, Rob Dawg,
Methinks that SPG is the white whale.
And I be Ahab, but that whale be good for naught but blubber after we catch and bring it up short.
The ships sails be black with smoke of the whales we have smote, but that white whale shall be the sweetest aroma cooking in the pots.
Aye, then truly, will the war be on it's way to that predestined conclusion.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Lawyerliz, just for you... scroll to the bottom of the page.
Books? Let's not even go there. We've been out of shelves for years, no matter how quickly I build more. Now they just get stacked.
Here in Westchester, CA (90045) the local Fox Hills Mall was recently bought by Westfield. It is mostly full. I go there for things like clothes (JCPenny = high class for me), cards, Radio Shack, food.
WHen my son was little, we used to go to the video games which he loves to play (now 2nd year medical student). Lot of tough looking guys there (probably gangs), but I kept quiet and they seemd to enjoy watching a little kid play the games. They closed the games down a few years later, probably to keep the gands out.
As they say, the years go quickly and the days go slowly.
Heheeheee.
Ours are stacked in front of the shelves, and in the closets and everywhere. And virtually all of our books were destroyed in hurricane andrew, so these are just the additions since 1992-3. When we moved to Fla in 72, we had 6000 pounds of possessions, of which 5000 lbs were books. . .
Obviously, this is a matter for Morphological analysis: Morphological analysis (problem-solving) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Morphological analysis was designed for multi-dimensional, non-quantifiable problems where causal modeling and simulation do not function well or at all
AllenM aka Joliet Jake writes:
Aye, Rob Dawg, Methinks that SPG is the white whale.
And I be Ahab,...
Que Queg would be Reggie Middleton. Personally rabbit or duck season I'm huntin' GGP who probably will run out of money before Simon.
Re: S&P 500 P/E is now around 18.
At bear market bottoms it's likely to be 6 or 7.
Actually ol boy, I want to see the P/E go up and the yield down, which is what is happening.
CR,
Don't forget the jewelry store closings and BKs. Jewelry stores are a mall mainstay. Recently, they include Whitehalls (373 stores, all kaput), Fortunoff (20 stores, Chapter 11), Alpha Omega (5 stores, Chapter 11), Friedman's and Crescent (455 stores, Chapter 11 and then liquidated), and Hendricks (6 stores, Chapter 11).
The retail jewelry business is dead on its ass, so there will be many more.
This is interesting, here's the "father of the american shopping mall," and the man on whose shoulders Simon stood to become master of the shopping universe.
Edward J. DeBartolo Sr - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.
RD - "I'm huntin' GGP who probably will run out of money before Simon"
Me too with a pretty aggressive position for me, but still sitting on an smaller SPG position, since they seem priced a little optimistically, and 20% off could happen in a week.
WTF about the martial arts studios and dance studios and build-a-bear studios, and hair fashion outlets, and cell phone stores, and, ...
Even with economy uncertain, entrepreneurs starting businesses
ERROR: File Not Found
Nationwide, however, several studies have concluded that new business formation does not fluctuate significantly with the economic cycle.
"The new businesses are slightly fewer and smaller, but you don't see the huge, pronounced effects that you might expect," said Brian Headd, an economist with the U.S. Small Business Administration.
Perhaps more important than raw numbers, the mindset has changed.
"I think the key ingredient that's different from three years ago is that you have to be a great deal more careful to understand who you market to," said Ross Lagattuta, chairman of the local chapter of Service Corps of Retired Executives.
"You can't shotgun it like you used to in the boom times and not pay attention to the kind of people you are trying to attract as customers."
Operations in general must also be executed with greater precision and discipline.
"In better times when there were significant bottom-line opportunities, you could have a hiccup or two and still be competitive," Vierra said. "Now, you have to be adamant about the P&L (profit and loss) statement being as trim and tight as possible."
--
CR,
Didn't you assure us earlier this year that CRE was not as overbuilt as RRE? Well, your assessment of CRE is as bad as your estimate of the housing demand being 1.7M, annually. Oh, well, you are a smart guy and will learn over time.
I cant wait to see what you say when the recession turns out to be severe. I am sure that you will say no depression. Once in depression, you will say nothing like the Great depression. You will keep downplaying until evidence becomes obvious.
Ja
Attention Mall Owners. "All your customers are belonging to we." signed, Costco.
These are tough times to be in retail, period
Kentucky.com 404
The big discount stores also are taking a bite from department stores.
Wal-Mart reported a 5.8 percent increase in sales in June from the previous year, its best June performance since 2002. At department stores, though, same-store sales or those at stores opened at least a year dropped 4.1 percent.
The shock waves from store closings are felt by employees, customers and by non-retailing companies of all kinds. Factory orders are cut, railroads and trucking companies lose cargoes, and newspapers and other media see advertising revenues shrink.
Even in strong economies, retailers close stores that don't meet expectations, Krugman said, but closings generally accelerate in weak economies like the current one.
That's just part of the natural flow of doing business that you do see some consolidation happen in the industry. We are seeing that now, he said.
Malls and shopping centers also lose business.
Vacancies at enclosed malls in 76 large U.S. markets have risen from 5.9 percent in the first quarter of 2008 to 6.3 percent in the second quarter, the highest level since early 2002, according to a survey by Reis Inc. that was reported in The Wall Street Journal.
Open-air retail centers with so-called big-box stores fared even worse, with vacancies climbing from 7.7 percent to 8.2 percent in the second quarter, the highest tally since 1995.
But Tavio Headley, an economist with ATA, said that while that is a positive sign, the main reason this year's numbers look good is because things were so dismal last year. It doesn't mean 2008 is especially robust.
"Things were so bad last year it doesn't take much to show a year-over-year improvement," he said.
"We believe the tonnage volumes will probably stay volatile as the weakness in the housing market continues, if not worsens, and energy prices continue to set new records."
Tom White, spokesman for the Association of American Railways in Washington, D.C., also said it is too early to draw conclusions from any improvements reported so far in the rail industry.
"It's really very much of a mixed bag, and it's very difficult to draw any conclusion at this point" he said.
In contrast to Union Pacific, Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. reported a 19 percent decline in net income in the past quarter compared with a year earlier largely because of environmental cleanups. Still, its profits were better than Wall Street analysts expected.
Both the trucking and rail industries are seeing decreased business from the slowdown in housing construction and increased business from manufacturing exports that result from the weaker dollar.
Trucks, trains now carrying more cargo
" Once in depression, you will say nothing like the Great depression. You will keep downplaying until evidence becomes obvious."
_ just a reminder, during the Great Depression the unemployment was over 20%, demand for capital consumer goods virtually diminished and financial system pretty much collapsed.
It's a very long shot to call our current economic environment anything close to the economic situation in early 30's.
The depression like that is possible however still very improbable.
However if the Chinese and rest of the world over-react and start putting the trade restrictions as happened during the 30's, we will walk one step closer to it, and they will be screwed to much higher degree.
DeBartolo, Jr. is interesting as well. Former owner of the SF '49ers. He was caught bribing a LA Governor for a casino license. His dad was into gambling too, but seemed to prefer horseracing.
Edward J. DeBartolo Jr - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.
I've always wondered about the outlet stores. Do they really have better deals?
We've hit those in Camarillo and others outside Barstow for some good deals, but you can count on one hand how many times we've been in them over the past decade.
Oh... and GGP boasths Mervyn's as an anchor tenant in 10 of its malls. Who will step up and take their spot? Empty anchor stores are not a shining beacon of prosperity at malls.
Maybe Apple could try being an anchor tenant. Imagine how many square feet of iPhones and iPods they could display.
"you can count on one hand how many times we've been in them over the past decade"
The past decade was quite good in terms of discressionary income and travel volumes. Driving vacations and long trips in general are, well, going the way of the dinosaur. I don't see J6P driving 70mi in his truck to see if there are deals that he can dump even more money into trinkets. Far flung outlet malls are the canary in a coal mine.
Barely,
I have positions in SRS.
I disagree with CR that office property was not as overbuilt as retail and lodging since I prefer to includ the late 90's overbuilding as part of a "double-top" with the current buildup. I think all three types are doomed.
What is it with Italian Americans and malls? This Caruso fellow that did the Calabasas Commons, The Grove, and Americana -- he's got Frank Sinatra playing 24/7 on the loudspeakers at Americana, the new "european town with included piazza."
Americana is bizarre. It's in Glendale, first of all. It's got condos over retail, all priced in the $1m range. In Glendale. The units look completely empty.
Megamike writes: "yet the upscale mall is going forward!"
So, does that mean I should buy Coldwater Creek stock?
Impulse buying at outlet malls 100 mi from the nearest population center. I don't think so.
From my experience with outlets, it's a way of selling off TQTOs (top quality throw outs). Factory seconds.
Incidentally, thrift stores in toney towns or neighborhoods, or near the better hospitals, have much better goods to choose from, and often cheaper than outlets.
Speaking of Sebastian, it's just peachy keen how you blogging types are so much more tolerant of divergent opinions than the folks over in the mainstream. All are welcome here, provided their perspective ranges somewhere between disaster and outright doom.
While Sebastian's prediction of no recession isn't looking great, it has yet to be formally disproven by the fact (remeber those pesky critters?). Meanwhile the doom crowd has yet to be proven right either. Looks like a draw so far.
"The wealthy are always wealthy,".... said Howard Carr, president of The Howard Group, a commercial real estate developer and broker in Colonie.
Yeah, and assclowns are always assclowns.
Interesting, I hadn't thought about fuel costs potentially counter-balancing the price savings at outlet malls. I looked at outlets as I did Wal-Mart, expecting a mild pullback due to the downsizing of people's budgets, but the driving distance factor is something I had not considered...
Hate crowds, hate junk from China, just a lot of hate
"Love the part where you can plan your vaction around one of these crap outlets..."
Tim | 07.27.08 - 5:48 pm | #
How's it hangin' at Mall of America these days?Reckon now is as good a time as any to ask those on this thread who may know.
WTF is this QSPE shit about with these folks?
The following is an excerpt from a 10-K/A SEC Filing, filed by RADIAN GROUP INC on 7/15/2008
The Company, as transferor, regularly securitized mortgage loans and securities
by transferring the loans or securities to entities ("Transferees") which
generally qualified under GAAP as "qualifying special purpose entities"
("QSPEs") as defined under Statement of Financial Accounting Standards ("SFAS")
No. 140, Accounting for Transfers and Servicing of Financial Assets and
Extinguishment of Liabilities-a replacement of FASB Statement No. 125 ("Off
Balance Sheet Securitizations"). The QSPEs issue investment grade and
non-investment grade securities. Generally, the investment grade securities were
sold to third party investors, and the Company retained the non-investment grade
securities. If a transaction meets the requirements for sale recognition under
GAAP, and the Transferee meets the requirements to be a QSPE, the assets
transferred to the QSPE are considered sold, and gain or loss is recognized. The
gain or loss is based on the price of the securities sold and the estimated fair
value of any securities and servicing rights retained over the cost basis of the
assets transferred net of transaction costs. If subsequently the Transferee
fails to continue to qualify as a QSPE, or the Company obtains the right to
purchase assets out of the Transferee, then the SPE would be evaluated for
consolidation under FIN 46R and the Company may have to include in its financial
statements such assets, or potentially, all the assets of such Transferee.
YouTube -
LawyerLiz, my wife will always admit to understanding Imelda while she, so far, successfully resists the primeval urge.
"I cant wait to see what you say when the recession turns out to be severe."
Now all that is needed is for Sebastian to show up and accuse CR of ignoring the positive data. I couldn't help but think of an anthem for CR's predicament.
YouTube - Stealers Wheel - Stuck In The Middle With You (1972)
Cheers,
While Sebastian's prediction of no recession isn't looking great, it has yet to be formally disproven by the fact (remeber those pesky critters?). Meanwhile the doom crowd has yet to be proven right either. Looks like a draw so far.
Forget the Trillions of dollars that has been thrown at the housing market and yeah I'd call it a draw,
Upstate NY should be benefitting from the exchange rate. Plenty of people from Canada, along with people from down-state, come down to shop.
Meanwhile, the rich people in the fancy Tysons 2 Mall in VA are still shopping and getting $15 lunches at the food court...unbelievable.
My anecdotal crap....
In our biz we deal with retailers. Some of our customers are barely hanging on. However, some smaller, Midwestern customers are rollin. Most of their customers (farmers etc) are enjoying the higher prices for corn and other crops. Of course these retailers are carrying little debt and run tight ships. Novel concept that.
Tim- If you want to be a prognosticator, then you need to consider all possible inputs and outcomes. Government intervention was among the most obvious things that should have been in any model.
lama-There are some Canadian shoppers in Buffalo, though border delays and gas prices limit this quite a bit. Albany is almost 4 hours from Montreal. At the mall the article is discussing, Canadians are probably no more than 1% of the customers.
lama: Most of those are probably just vp's at freddie mac.
My point is that faulty data and gov't intervention can delay anything.
On your point spoke to a guy (former GS banker) who predicted all this in 2005 even the bailout of the GSE's (which they are not done bailing out BTW) his prediction, we are in the forth inning of a 4 year recession. 2007 was the "prolouge".
The recession is in the purchasing power of the 2-ply Softness* USD.
The USD will strengthen against most currencies, esp. the Euro, over the next two years and dumbfound most commenters here. It pays to be contrarian while keeping ones head in reality; the Eurozone is heading into recession, and the Euro is grossly overvalued vis-a-vis the dollar. Place your bets.
Anonymouse-I agree. Euro is very overvalued. Perhaps once it adjusts, Lefty will stock some better quality champagne and cognac.
Here's more cheer from Prof. Roubini:
"...the wealthiest country in the world may no longer be able to afford to be so picky about who rides to its rescue and on what terms."
Investing: That Sinking Feeling - TIME
In my opinion the CRE bust should be considered as a downward leg of the economic correction,(or as a separate car of the train wreck) even though it will be hard to disentangle its effects on unemployment, bank failures, real estate prices, and the stock market.
Although CRE is smaller than RRE, the CRE bust will provide some spectacular bankruptcies and will probably directly cause some bank failures. Given the increasing fragility of the financial structure, the effects of another blow could be serious.
Anonymouse, Aheadofthecurve
Disagree completely the dollar was in a down trend over 8 years once people realized that
A.The US will have to import more goods to operate
B. Larger structural fiscal deficits that will continue to grow.
C. The need for persistently low interest rates to achieve "trend" growth.
Housing just accelerated the selling of the dollar and discourage more buying
hey AOTC, they are talking about our hood on CR!
Something interesting to note about the REIT mentioned in this article. Feldman Mall Properties
Delisted from the NYSE on July 2008
Current share price $0.30. 52 wk high - $11.50
AOTC says this article is bunk because the parking lot is full over there. Get in while you can!
Dodd Demands Meeting With Fed, Treasury Officials - Real Time Economics - WSJ
Sen. Christopher Dodd (D., Conn.) said he wants to meet Tuesday morning with the Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Steve Preston to discuss quick implementation of the bill.
he American Banker reported Friday, citing an unnamed HUD spokesperson, that final regulations for the foreclosure prevention program could be proposed early next year and finalized next summer.
That would be much later than the Oct. 1 date that Dodd and House Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank (D., Mass.) have cited for the program to begin.
Frank, in a statement released by his office Saturday, said lawmakers would work with the administration to get the program in place as rapidly as possible.
And I want to urge the (mortgage) servicers now that this is about to become law, to show some forbearance for troubled borrowers who may qualify for the program, Frank said. (Updated to include HUD and Frank comments.)
Sen. Christopher Dodd (D., Conn.), ah that's the guy, one of the Mr. Mozilo's friends....
lol
Uncle Billy, thanks for the link and the read. I've love to see Nouriel Roubini's investment porfolio!
Has anyone posted this, this weekend?
Silver State Bancorp Announces Director Resignation
| Reuters
Andrew McCain, son of John McCain, has resigned from the Board of Silver State Bancorp, after being on it just 6 mos. "For personal reasons."
SSBX hasn't been doing terribly well as of late. While I know we all like to spend more time with our families, but is this a pre-emptive move to avoid the embarrassment of McCain's son serving on the Board of a failed bank?
12th-I like the redesign of the mall. I like the LL Bean store. It's one of the few stores where I actually find things I need or want. That doesn't mean that I would buy Feldman stock. They have a ton of accounting and management issues that date back years. By the way, when do you want the car I borrowed from you and sold back?
Tim-Why do people here always talk about the US fiscal deficit and ignore the fact that Europe and Japan have deficits that are as bad or worse on a per capita/per GDP basis?
Rob Dawg writes:
Attention Mall Owners. "All your customers are belonging to we." signed, Costco.
HAHA...prepare all zigs!
A local mall (Lakewood, CA) is jamming in a Costco as fast as possible. Massive building project.
Seems like a smart move, yes?
Mortgage Debt Proving Least of Bad Bets as All Investing Sinks
Mortgage Debt Least of Bad Bets as Investing Sinks (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
The fastest inflation in 17 years and a fourth straight quarter of U.S. profit declines are turning debt sold by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into the favorites of the world's biggest bond investors.
Pacific Investment Management Co., T. Rowe Price Group Inc., RiverSource Institutional Advisors and U.S. Bancorp's FAF Advisors, which oversee more than $1 trillion, say the government's decision to stand behind the beleaguered U.S. housing finance companies and their yields compared with Treasuries make the bonds a buy. The Senate approved legislation on July 26 allowing the U.S. to inject capital into Fannie and Freddie. President George W. Bush plans to sign it into law.
File this under "WTF". Talk about looking a gift horse in the mouth. Some people are destined to be financially illiterate, careless, whatever as this story shows.
The short version - this family got an "extreme home makeover" back in 2005. As part of that, the family was given $100,000 on top of having their mortgage paid off.
Fast forward to 15 months ago when they took out a mortgage for $450,000 against the house - said mortgage is presently in default and a foreclosure is pending.
Thank you congresscritters - these are exactly the type of people who need saving - unfortunately they'll need rescue again and again and again.
The article and all its gory details - with video of the home can be found here
. I'm sure Dodd will lose sleep over this deserving family if they get foreclosed before his bill gets implemented.
Please pass the airsickness bag. Thanks.
Tim-Why do people here always talk about the US fiscal deficit and ignore the fact that Europe and Japan have deficits that are as bad or worse on a per capita/per GDP basis?
My understanding is that their debt is repaid to its citizens with interest whereas we ship money off to other countries...
Anonymous,
Dodd is right to be concerned that HUD will take forever to implement the Housing Rescue bill. After a lifetime inside the Beltway I can say with confidence that HUD is among the slowest and most disorganized Departments in the US Government.
I just don't think the financials are really showing enough health,'' said Brian Rauscher, director of portfolio strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. in New York.There's going to be some opportunities coming up, but I just don't think we're done with the downside yet.''
Bear Markets
All of the 23 developed nations in the MSCI World Index except for Canada have experienced bear-market plunges of 20 percent or more since September as credit losses surged and record commodity prices stoked inflation. Brazil this week became the 23rd out of 25 developing countries in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index to enter a bear market. Only Jordan and Morocco avoided such slumps.
.S. lost jobs in July for the seventh straight month, a sign the economy may weaken after tax rebates boosted growth in the second quarter, economists said before reports this week.
Payrolls probably shrank by 75,000, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey ahead of a Labor Department report on Aug. 1. The economy expanded at a 2.3 percent annual rate from April to June, more than twice the pace of the prior quarter, other figures may show.
Sustained job losses will take a toll on Americans already burdened by record gasoline costs, plunging home values, and shrinking access to credit. The weakening labor market reinforces concern consumer spending will falter once the cash from the tax rebates is used up.
With the tax rebates, we essentially put our troubles off for another day,'' said Maxwell Clarke, chief U.S. economist at IDEAGlobal Inc. in New York.The weakening employment market will definitely hurt the consumer's ability to spend.'
MiTurn: No Prob.
As for where he invests? That would be a nice point blank question for some enterprising reporter.
"All of the 23 developed nations in the MSCI World Index except for Canada . . "
They'll catch up. Don't worry.
AOTC
About my car. Call me when gas hits $1.50. As soon as we start drilling off of FLA that should be no problem. Maybe some more tax breaks for the oil companies, too. Until then, it burns oil, add a quart every 1,000 miles. Thanks.
That LL bean is pretty weak but still the best thing in that mall. Take my car up to Maine and check out the Mothership in Freehold. That is one of the few retail establishments I visit that doesn't put me in a foul mood.
I'm willing to bet that since Feldman is tanking that their projections for Colonie were probably a tad optimistic.
I may go long 100 shares just to do my part to help the community.
Ain't got no place to lay your head
Somebody came and took your bed
Don't worry, be happy
The land lord say your rent is late
He may have to litigate
Don't worry, be happy
Lood at me I am happy
Don't worry, be happy
Here I give you my phone number
When you worry call me
I make you happy
Don't worry, be happy
Ain't got no cash, ain't got no style
Ain't got not girl to make you smile
But don't worry be happy
Cause when you worry
Your face will frown
And that will bring everybody down
So don't worry, be happy (now).....
12th-I've been to LL Bean in Maine. Actually Campmor on Route 17 in NJ is much better than Bean. But I like having something nearby.
I'm all for drilling; right now, the fantasy that there are huge stores of oil off the coast is being used as an excuse not to develop alternatives. So the quicker we drill and don't find much, the quicker we can get down to real solutions.
When did the economy grow? How?
A private report on Aug. 1 may show manufacturing cooled in July. The Institute for Supply Management's factory index slipped to 49.2 from 50.2 the prior month, according to the Bloomberg survey median. A reading of 50 is the dividing line between growth and contraction.
Other reports this week will probably provide more evidence housing remains in a slump. Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas probably fell in the 12 months ended May by the most on record, economists project a July 29 report from S&P/Case- Shiller will show.
The mall is still a good place to go to look at hot chicks. If the stores put chairs in their windows rather than merchandise, they'd probably attract more customers.
Glass floors on the second level would also help.
Perhaps I should start a consulting business?
Currently Smoking Cannabis
glass floors, heh.
Why do people here always talk about the US fiscal deficit and ignore the fact that Europe and Japan have deficits that are as bad or worse on a per capita/per GDP basis?
Because the US also has an unsustainable CAD.
ahead,
I have friends in Montreal who are always talking about some mall in upstate NY they visit (lots of outlets). I must have my malls mixed.
Thanks for the correction.
Tanta posted on this and I provided an update yesterday:
Bank deal gives Laura Richardson back her Sacramento house | L.A. NOW | Los Angeles Times
Laura Richardson's friends have the power not only to change history, but to keep her sailing along as Congress' most visible and unrepentant deadbeat. She did send out a flyer to her constituents telling them they should forgive though.
I wonder if Mr. York's dropping of his lawsuit had anything to do with the recent fundraiser held for Richardson. How much of this money went to squash the lawsuit and buy his silence. Pelosi commanded her to "get her house in order," and presto magico, so she did.
Would someone please check national property records to see what other properties she owns and is defaulting on? So far we've only been able to count three. When a reporter asked her about this, she declined to comment. Ah, delightful country where our reps are being financed by strip club owners.
If it turns out that she owns a mall, or has business relations with people that do, this has been on-topic.
12th-I've been to LL Bean in Maine. Actually Campmor on Route 17 in NJ is much better than Bean.
Yeah, but it is in NJ. When i run a cost benefit analysis there is usually one cost that outweighs any benefits. Does this require me to go to New Jersey?
Campmor has a really good catalog. I only go to the store if I have other business down there, which fortunately is rare.
Mike, at 5500 S.F. I think they probably have a better chance of getting on their feet again letting it foreclose and renting a SFO sized property. Can you imagine what it costs to maintain it and keep the lights/heat/water on, not to mention taxes?
"Tim-Why do people here always talk about the US fiscal deficit and ignore the fact that Europe and Japan have deficits that are as bad or worse on a per capita/per GDP basis?"
ATC Why do people ask about only fiscal deficits and ignore massive trade deficits and negative savings rates that also have destabilizing effects on governments & currency ?
The mall is still a good place to go to look at hot chicks....
Glass floors on the second level would also help....
Then you have a bunch of obese Scots shopping menswear on the second floor and suddenly everyone downstairs is gouging their own eyes out.
How much retail floor space per capita exists in the U.S. versus other developed nations such as the U.K.?
I think its on the order of 3 times more.
With the home ATM closing down, isn't natural to expect the malls to start to see decreased traffic and sales volumes?
Bohemia, N.Y.-based Infinity Funding Group has launched Ponte Capital, a fund that is lending money to developers who need financing in the period between a projects' final approval and construction. "Because of the economic situation, a lot of guys are sitting around on projects that should be going ...
Because of the economic situation, a lot of guys are sitting around on projects that should be going forward. We're stepping in to fill a gap."
Paul Tantillo, v.p. of Bohemia, N.Y.-based Infinity Funding Group, on the firm's new fund, which is lending money to developers who need financing in the period between a projects' final approval and construction.
New Fund Targets Stalled Developments
Westfield. I'd love to see them out of business. I cannot stand their tactic of buy out shopping center, change the names to glorify themselves even though everyone in the community knows the mall by the name it has had for 20-odd years. There is branding and then there is branding that goes so far beyond ego that it's just plain obnoxious. It's the same type of ego that drives companies to want to put their name on a stadium and ruin it forever for the locals.
It's a very long shot to call our current economic environment anything close to the economic situation in early 30's.
No, it's like the late 20's, only worse.
The depression like that is possible however still very improbable.
Your opinion. Most would've said the same thing about housing before, too.
Retail and Office Delinquencies Shoot Up
Watch List (July 20-26): Maturity Defaults Driving Delinquencies - CoStar Group
Increased volatility in the office and retail sectors have led to a two basis point increase in U.S. CMBS delinquencies, according to the latest Fitch Ratings loan delinquency index. While overall delinquencies increased only mildly for the fifth consecutive month, the retail and office sectors led the index with net increases of $70.5 million and $62.2 million, respectively.
Despite relatively stable performance to date, Fitch remains concerned about the retail sector.
"An increase in retail bankruptcies and a continued decline in consumer disposable income are evident, though they have yet to impact retail performance," said Susan Merrick, managing director of Fitch. "High energy and commodity prices, rising unemployment, housing market weakness, and lower credit availability continue to negatively impact retail sales and are expected to dampen retail sector growth going forward. Recent store closings, including continued bankruptcy filings of tenants such as specialty retailer Linens 'n Things and discount-apparel retailer Steve & Barry's, will impact retail performance."
Retail loan delinquencies increased 25.7% month-over-month, due to the addition of 15 newly delinquent loans located across 12 different states. Loans secured by retail properties represent 28.1% of the Fitch rated universe, and 13.2% of the overall loan delinquency index. Isolating the delinquent retail loans and comparing them to all retail loans in the Fitch-rated universe, the sector's delinquency index has ticked up slightly to 0.21%, from 0.17% in May.
Regarding retail square footage, check the chart:
Clusterfuck Nation by Jim Kunstler : Peak Suburbia
Fitch notes that of the newly delinquent loans, approximately one-third came as a result of maturity default, with borrowers unable to refinance precisely at their maturity date. Approximately 11.1% of all loans delinquent in June were classified as non-performing matured. A majority of non-performing matured loans continue to pay in full or to extend their terms within 60 days of their maturity date.
The seasoned delinquency index, which omits transactions with less than one year of seasoning, rose by one basis point, ending the month at 0.47%. Five transactions totaling $20.5 billion became newly seasoned. Currently there are three delinquent loans totaling $19.5 million which correspond to the newly seasoned deals.
Here's Larry Summers again, this time with a "call to action." He actually ends the article "It is a time for decisive action."
FT.com / Columnists / Lawrence Summers - The way forward for Fannie and Freddie
The action he's referring to, I think, is the fast-track nationalization of the GSE's.
That might even be something that helps, but that he's using the language of marketing/pr troubles me. Is he an economist or a salesman? Is there a difference.
Note also, that just as his blurb on RGE Monitor does not mention his affiliation with D.E. Shaw, the blurb at the bottom of this article does not mention his affiliation with RGE Monitor.
Is larry Summers the drummer or guitarist in The Police?
Citing a combination of poor liquidity, substantial debt service, extremely challenging real estate market conditions and other legal and financial issues, Lake at Las Vegas Joint Venture LLC, the master developer of the Lake Las Vegas Resort filed to reorganize under Chapter 11 of the Bankruptcy Code.
LLV Holdco LLC, a subsidiary of Las Vegas-based Atalon Group, assumed ownership and management control of the master-planned community in early January 2008 after the former ownership group defaulted on approximately $540 million in loans in 2007.
Is he an economist or a salesman?
Salesman first, politician second, and economist last.
But then again, the only difference between salesmen and politicians is that one has to get elected.
Frankly, I don't have a clue why the country needs anything beyond Costco, Sams Club & Walmart. May be a Saks / Nieman Marcus or Nordstrum for the upper crust. Everything else can be nicely done via ecommerce a la Amazon/ebay/Craigslist. Time to kill the wasteful "retail industry".
"Regarding retail square footage, check the chart:"
TJ, but without all that retail, what does the general population do for work?
NYT Wayback Machine: China takes to malls in a big way:
- NY Times
Did I read recently that China now has something like 100 sq ft. of mall for every citizen? I wish there was a more efficient connection between my brain and the internet.
Police: 200 people involved in Raleigh mall melee
http://www.timesanddemocrat.com/articles/2008/07/27/ap-state-sc/d926c4583.txt
About 200 to 300 people joined a melee that began inside a Raleigh mall and spilled outside the shopping center during the fight, authorities said Sunday.
Raleigh Police Department spokesman Jim Sughrue said the gang-related brawl began inside Triangle Town Center Mall on Saturday night about an hour before closing. Off-duty officers working at the mall requested assistance, and authorities from the Wake County Sheriff's Office and the N.C. Highway Patrol also responded.
Sughrue said a 15-year-old was stabbed during the incident. He was taken to the hospital with non-life threatening injuries. A police officer was also injured with a "significant" cut to his knee that he suffered during a chase. He was taken to the hospital for treatment and is expected to recover, Sughrue said.
Authorities said the fracas was "gang-related," though Sughrue declined to say why authorities reached that conclusion. Raleigh police have previously said examples of gang-related activity include actions that would establish a gang's territory, suppress another gang or get revenge.
Raleigh is where Sebastian lives. I can't wait for his take on this.
"Neighbors Have Meeting, Decide to Go Outside to Enjoy Weather and Frolic"
Well, if we are going to save just a little we are going to have to spend less, and that means less retail space.
And by the way, people like to visit market places and look at stuff and each other, and have for at least as long as cities have existed--say 8000years.
"Why do people here always talk about the US fiscal deficit and ignore the fact that Europe and Japan have deficits that are as bad or worse on a per capita/per GDP basis?"
I heard an economist reply to that question with, "Because the US has always been the country with the strong economy and sound policies to be the sanctuary for the rest of the world's economy. If there were uncertainties in some other market, investors always had the US."
I have been looking at mall related violence and gangs, and these stories are too foul, and IMHO, shopping at a mall is very low on my list. I used to see people posting at Yahoo about all the violence around walmarts.... great world we live in. I like to thank Bush for the escalation, but this problem is seriously on the rise!
Regarding retail square footage, check the chart
How nice, the UK has 2.5 sf per capita. WalMart alone has something like 2 sf per capita in the US (~650 mil sf IIRC)
Have no fear, President Obama will be meeting tomorrow with Warren, Rubin, Jon Corzine, Labor Leaders, and a few other experienced old salts to tweak a little policy.
Don,
How much more help getting on their feet do they need? They were given $100,000 plus a fully paid for house. Don't care that it was 5,500 sq ft. They should have figured out whether or not they could afford the utilities/taxes with no mortgage payment hanging over them.
They took $450,000 out of the house 15 months ago and its in foreclosure. Where did the money go?
Most galling of all is this womans phucking sense of entitlement. She says, "Whats going to happen is instead of keep paying my mortgage, Im going to take my money and not pay my mortgage because Im being harassed, said Harper."
So at some point in time (15 months ago) some bank felt it was worth at least $450,000 -presumably they could have sold it for close to that - no phuck that - they could have sold it for half and made out like bandits - they owned the house free and clear after someone gave it to them and now she's going to take HER MONEY and stop paying the mortgage because the bank is harassing her?
I'm sorry - I don't want my tax dollars to help her in any way - yet that's what's going to happen - albeit indirectly.
Corn, Soybeans May Rise; Hot, Dry Weather Threatens U.S. Crops
Corn, Soybeans May Rise; Hot, Dry Weather Threatens U.S. Crops - Bloomberg.com
These guy's are all Cornholiod, they will be ASSimilated.
Regarding mall sq footage:
Of course the US is phenomenally overbuilt. BUT be careful comparing the US to places like Sweden, France and the UK. Very different density and auto use patterns - so it's far cheaper to buy space here and people tend to buy in big lots. High price of oil may change this.
Ok, I'm offering a mao jacket and cap to the first person who can come up with an accurate estimate of total retail square footage in ROC. Or even total mall square footage.
By the way, any store that can't come up with a better name than "Linens 'n Things" deserved to go out of business years ago. "Things", what things?
Aheadofthecurve | 07.27.08 - 4:53 pm | #
My family refers to the place as 'More Stuff 2 Dust'.
re: Laura Richardson in Los Angeles county
Richardson,Laura, 717 E Vernon St, Long Beach, CA 90806
Richardson,Laura A, 3623 S Parker St, San Pedro, CA 90731
There are also two others in LA with different middle names.
Exit,
Yeah, those two are the Southern CA properties she's defaulted on numerous times. The one that got foreclosed and magically unforclosed is in Sacramento. But what is she involved with outside of CA, residential or commercial, in her name or not. That's where it gets tough. On top of that, supposedly her friends can make official documents magically change as well. Like when she was running for election reports were heard that the registrar-recorders office "mistakenly" published ballots with only her name on them.
they called it Linens 'n Things because they couldn't call it Linens 'n Shit
Tim-Why do people here always talk about the US fiscal deficit and ignore the fact that Europe and Japan have deficits that are as bad or worse on a per capita/per GDP basis?
Aheadofthecurve | 07.27.08 - 7:40 pm | #
Because they don't run current account deficits anywhere near as bad and that is the killer - Japan runs a huge surplus.
It isn't a problem for a country to run a huge gov't deficit IF it is funded by its own citizens (Europe & Japan mostly qualify)... that requires a positive national savings rate.
It is a huge problem if they fund their deficits by others outside their borders - that means we have to produce goods & trade to generate surpluses to offset the payments OR get become poorer.
Japan probably qualifies and I believe Germany does as well. On the other hand, Italy ran a deficit of 7 billion euros in May 2008 and France was close to 5 billion. US is somewhere around $ 60 billion/month. Given the differences in size, at current exchange rates, those are not that different. With oil prices where they are, it's difficult to see any of the G-8 countries, except possibly Canada, maintaining surpluses.
"... "Why do people here always talk about the US fiscal deficit and ignore the fact that Europe and Japan have deficits that are as bad or worse on a per capita/per GDP basis?" ...
Let me also add that no other country in the OECD comes even close to the U.S.' use of off balance sheet items that aren't included in the deficit.
When making comparisons you can never use the fiscal deficit figures but always rather the national debt.
Sorry, I meant the "increase" in national debt.
AOTC,
BTW, you are completely off base with your figures.
France and Italy (with among the worst deficits in the Euro zone) have less than half the trade deficit/gdp ratio of the U.S. and a very significant part of their imports are from within the Euro zone, i.e. no currency conversion.
Newsflash - Italy runs deficit
Future newsflash - Italy may have a change of government in the next few months.
Ongoing newsflash - Italy is a somewhat chaotic land, often rocked by strikes, beset by endemic corruption. And the food remains wonderful.
As of April, there were about 217 U.S. outlet centers totaling 57 million square feet of space, where about 305 outlet chains operate 11,546 stores, according to Value Retail News, published by the International Council of Shopping Centers.
Thirty-five more outlet centers totaling 11.8 million square feet are planned to be open by 2010.
With 601 stores, Jones Apparel Group Inc operated the most outlet stores. Phillips-Van Heusen Corp was second at 553 outlet stores.
California was home to 33 outlet centers, the most of any state, followed by Florida, 14; Texas, 13; and Georgia, 10.
Chelsea Premium Outlet Centers, which Simon bought in 2004, has been a great profit producer for its parent. In the first quarter, Chelsea's average sales per square foot rose 5.4 percent, compared with 0.8 percent at Simon's regional malls. The outlets' average rent was up 6 percent to $26.32 per square foot compared with 4.3 percent or $37.73 percent at the malls.
Tanger, the only publicly traded pure-play outlet center owner, saw its net operating income at centers it has owned for at least a year rise 5.7 percent in the first quarter of 2008, up from a 3 percent rise a year earlier.
With food and gasoline prices soaring, outlet centers and their retail tenants may feel a double punch from the economic downturn, as consumers cut back on spending for all but necessary items.
"The Ellenton center is one of their hot ones," said Linda Humphers, editor of the International Council of Shopping Centers' Valu Retail News.
Upscale shoppers seek deals, too
Prime Retail, like several other outlet center developers, has focused on attracting a more upscale, higher-end tenant mix that appeals to shoppers, she said.
Neiman Marcus Last Call is slated to be the anchor of Prime Outlets at Ellenton's expansion, which will have space for about 30 stores.
Prime Outlets' success in the past, current and near future economic environment is not unusual in the outlet center world.
"Outlets are counter-cyclical," Humphers said. "When people cut back, it is not on quality and brands. It's what they spend on quality and brands."
From > June 2005:
Gordon predicts that the Piers sales per square foot will exceed $600 and could one day rival the Forum Shops legendary numbers among the highest in the country at $1,300 per square foot. (By comparison, the national average for regional malls is only about a quarter of that, at $341 per square foot.)
Westcor's indoor shopping properties thrive in sunny Arizona
Westcor's indoor shopping properties thrive in sunny Arizona
"I like the malls that are enclosed," Stamps said.
Macerich sales-per-square-foot numbers also tell the story of Westcor's indoor mall success.
Arthur Coppola, Macerich president and chief executive officer, said in an earnings conference call earlier this year that Westcor malls' overall sales average was "well over $540 a square foot" in 2007.
Sales per square foot at Westcor's top performing enclosed malls, are $611 at Arrowhead, $653 at Chandler and $736 at Scottsdale. Although sales at enclosed malls in lower income parts of the Valley are below $400 per square foot, Coppola said Macerich values those properties because they represent economic diversity.
"A good mall nationally does $400 per square foot," said Scott Nelson, a Westcor vice president for development.
"If you look at Chandler and Scottsdale, they are cranking on all cylinders. We don't believe the enclosed mall is broken by any means."
"The really good retailers know this is a short-term downturn. Long term, Phoenix is a huge growth area," she said.
Retail trade group predicts many store closures
http://www.publicradio.org/columns/kpcc/kpccnewsinbrief/2008/07/retail-trade-group-predicts-ma.html
Susan Valot: Levitz, Linens n Things, Shoe Pavilion Those are just a few of the store chains that have declared bankruptcy over the past few months. Mervyns reportedly may be next in line. And other chains, like Home Depot, JoAnns, Gap, and Old Navy, have opted to close stores in order to tighten their purse straps.
The International Council of Shopping Centers predicts 144,000 stores will close nationwide before the end of this year. Thats up 7 percent from last year. Its the largest year-to-year jump since the group started keeping records of such things 14 years ago. But the council points out the overall number is still fewer than the average number of closings between 1993 and 2001 a sign, it says, that the retail industry is better prepared to weather economic storms.
As of April, there were about 217 U.S. outlet centers totaling 57 million square feet of space, where about 305 outlet chains operate 11,546 stores, according to Value Retail News, published by the International Council of Shopping Centers.
The dollar recently fell as low as 107.35 yen against the yen. Earlier, it declined to intraday lows against the euro and U.K. pound. The euro rose to $1.5768, and the U.K. pound hit $1.9947.