I used to eat there. The food was good. The Nachos especially. Haven't been there in probably 10 years or so. Not the fault of the restaurant. There just aren't any near my work.
"No such thing as bad news... merrill's write down shows that we've reached the bottom!
Thats it we're going back up from here."
It seems that everything in the media ways that this is the endgame or close to the end of the writedowns. And it seems to me they have been saying that every time any financial institution comes up with bad news.
I don't see it as the endgame. And I can not understand how these banks are still solvent. I am feeling so stupid. What am I missing?
The stock market is treating the Merrill Lynch news as good for equities. I don't get it. What exactly would be bad news?
In the short-term news doesn't really matter unless it's a major unexpected shock, or an agreed upon signal for starting another short squeezing rally.
Dummy me, when I saw the headline that it was the "endgame" for Merrill Lynch with these writedowns, I thought it meant Merrill was at the end of its game, and would soon be another failed institution that is too big to fail. Of course, it instead meant clear sailing from here.
I wonder how much Merrill wrote down the value of its liabilities. As it approaches the real endgame, it's liabilities will/can be written down to fair value. Anybody want a Merrill Lynch bond just now?
July 29 (Bloomberg) -- Bennigan's and Steak-and-Ale restaurant chains, owned by Metromedia Restaurant Group, sought permission to liquidate in bankruptcy court protection.
There was a Bennigans here in Vernon CT that has been closed for about 2 years- actually the food was not all that bad- the company just expanded beyond its means.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Sen. Ted Stevens from Alaska, the longest serving U.S. Republican senator ever, was indicted on seven counts related to his holding of public office, a federal law enforcement official said on Tuesday.
Here's the formula. You run a restaurant chain. Costs are increasing by 1% per month. If you were smart, you would increase your prices by 1% per month.
But is that smart? Well, you're only half full. And every other restaurant in town is only half full.
But it's smart anyway. You can't give away loss-leader meals.
Only two years ago, you borrowed tens of million of dollars to build, buy and expand. The cost of that debt is 12% heading to 16%. You have to pay off your debt so you have to stay busy. You have no choice but to give meals away for less than they cost.
It's the leveraged chains that are in trouble. Debt-free restaurants can last a long time even in a recession.
This reflects huge margin compression for the refiners, no? I suspect we will see moderate improvement with the fall in oil prices, but with declining utilization and falling miles driven its hard to see how it will improve dramatically...
I love these spontaneous rallies in the dollar, take a gander at DX from 10am to noon...
I kinda thought we might have a little rally on the dollar from the 72. Seems to have worked out that way. A gambling man might have bought some FXE puts when the Euro hit 160.
Me being a paragon of morality on the other hand...
Good riddance.
Having worked at the South Coast Plaza Bennigan's as a teen, this is good news for humanity. In addition to horrible food safety, those bastards made us practice "the Four Windows," where we were threatened with termination if we didn't say things like, "Can I start you off with some delicious hot buffalo wings or maybe an order of our world famous crispy fried mozzarella?"
Toilet water in the water pitchers. Dates changed on aging raw chicken. And spies who monitored your adjectives. Oh thank God they are gone from this Earth.
Janet, if you're out there, you suck.
I know Florida has a bunch of Bennigan's. I've been to a few. They remind me of a TGI Friday's or a Red Robin's. Basically, beer, munchies, lunch and dinner, typically burgers.
Now Hooters, that's a joint that's gonna outlast the recession. I've been to the original in Clearwater, Florida. "Delightfully tacky, yet unrefined." Oh, and boobs, too.
The last time I was in Bennigans was over 20 years ago with an alcholic friend of mine. It was a Sunday, 3 or 4 for 1 drinks, I don't remember which. My alky friend kept ordering "Russian Qualudes". They tasted like chocolate milk. I think I drank 12 mixed with some other drinks. I became violently ill and puked gallons in the bushes in front of Bennigans. Haven't been back since.
"... Traditionally in America there is a social stigma attached to those who default on their debts, which should be a deterrent to walking away from your home.
But according to Susan Wachter, professor of real estate and finance at Wharton School of Business, in the depth of this crisis the social attitudes to such actions are changing.
"This is the kind of conversation that's going on at cocktail parties, at swimming pools," Professor Wachter says. "And suddenly this option which was truly unthinkable in the past becomes thinkable." ...
The Exchange facilitates crack spread trading in its futures markets by treating both legs of the trade as a single transaction. If a crack spread is a positive number then the price of the refined products is higher than that of crude oil. If the spread is a negative number, the products are priced at less than the cost of crude oil.
not 'no bid' ,just no margin...
i've been looking for a time to dive into the refiner's... vlo, specifically...
"But according to Susan Wachter, professor of real estate and finance at Wharton School of Business, in the depth of this crisis the social attitudes to such actions are changing" Yes. Crime is contagious. If walking away from debts works for billionaires and millionaires it should work for the rest of us. I'm in my early planning stages of my personal debt recovery/loss debt socializating recovery/loss Put America first Too big to fail trickle down the toilet of my debts.
Seems like Mr. Market is anticipating negative refining margins then...when I ran that chart out to max the crack spread was $12 back in early 2007.
Where does VLO get most of their crude? Wasn't one of the refiners just given some grim news by Mexico with respect to supply due to the worsening decline rate they are experiencing?
HK launches its first gold ETF
By Andrew Wood in Hong Kong
Published: July 24 2008 16:25 | Last updated: July 24 2008 16:25
Hong Kongs first exchange-traded fund to track the price of gold has been launched to take advantage of interest in the precious metal as its price remains close to record highs and investors in Asia look for ways to hedge against inflation.
Ni Hao, friends.
If a refiner expects crude prices to hold steady, or rise
somewhat, while products fall (a declining crack spread),
the refiner would sell the crack; that is, he would buy
crude futures and sell gasoline and heating oil futures.
in this case, a lot of crack was sold(chuckle, chuckle)
i'm looking for margins to improve, like you and other's have surmised over the weeks and months as crude went crazy, and for the refiners to now play catch-up.
"I am short glod as well. It's a late-stage cyclical, not a religion"
I was short until yesterday. Maybe I got out a little early. If we get a market swoon concurrent with servere dollar weakness, maybe on a huge miss Friday in jobs gold could gap higher.
WSJ - Obama to Meet With Bernanke
"As part of a week-long shift back to economic issues, Barack Obama will meet with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Tuesday, his campaign confirmed. The two are expected to discuss the current credit crisis and Sen. Obama's plans to enforce tougher oversight of financial institutions if elected president. The likely Democratic nominee is also scheduled to speak to Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson by phone Tuesday, campaign officials said." Obama, Bernanke Talk Economy - WSJ.com
Out shopping in Tucson this morning and I have to admit supermarket seemed very empty, streets with few cars.....I begin to think the signs of recession are here....
Where does VLO get most of their crude? Wasn't one of the refiners just given some grim news by Mexico with respect to supply due to the worsening decline rate they are experiencing?
Trade talks aimed at producing a deal that would add billions of dollars to the world economy collapsed in their ninth day as rich and poor nations refused to make market-opening concessions and accused each other of intransigence, according to a trade negotiator.
Japs need a weaker currency so they can sell us crap just like everyone else, the problem is we need the same thing. Interest rates are going up or dollar is going to have to fall or a combination to pay for the explosion that will hit Fannie and her fat little bro along with some of the other banks which the taxpayers will be forced to pay for no other options. This is noise posibably CB, Hedges and Momma Saun playing carry trade will get their asses burned again. S&P 1310 then short it again.
Japan CB is screwing their citizens for the benefit of large corporations just like the US is screwing theirs.
"RE writes:
Well, I am long gold. This is the doldrums season for gold. It will have its day again in a few months."
As I've said before, I'm long gold as long as the Bush Administration is still in power. He's 'way too capable of giving the world the middle finger just before he ducks out the door.
As for restaurants, the independents that I know personally are struggling with cost control but keeping their heads above water. They're much more agile than hierarchical corporate chains in their strategizing and decision-making.
And of course, they don't have the debt load. Which results in amusing scenes like the owner of the place on the floor of the scullery with his tool belt, peering into the guts of a dishwasher that should have been replaced years ago.
Alphonso Prince, manager of the Bennigan's at 1250 Torrence Ave. in Calumet City, said he was notified of the shutdown at 12:10 a.m. from his area director, who was crying on the telephone. He said there was no forewarning about the shutdown.
"I'm angry," Prince said. "I'm hurt; I'm devastated."
"No blast of e-mails, nothing to say, 'Sorry, we just can't do it anymore,'" Prince continued, "just a phone call from my area director who doesn't know anything, because she just found out. She'd been with the company for 21 years."
Here's the formula. You run a restaurant chain. Costs are increasing by 1% per month. If you were smart, you would increase your prices by 1% per month.
The US chains have focused on increasing table turns for the last decade and now its comming back to bite them.
The entire US dining experience has been built around getting your butt out of the table as fast as possible. Restaurants are built to be noisy and brightly lit to discourage intimate conversation. Rooms are kept too cold so women are uncomfortable after 30 minutes. Meals are jumbo sized to discourage staying for dessert.
And if that doesn't work the waitress shows up at the table after 30 minutes with the bill in hand asking if "You want anything else". For those that can tolerate lingering beyond 30 minutes clearing the table or "checking" on you every 5 minutes give the hint.
Not really a great strategy when the the restaurant is half full most nights.
Whats different about this new wave is the number of people who are simply walking away from their houses, said the Northern District of Californias Chief Bankruptcy Judge Randall Newsome, who has overseen bankruptcy filings for two decades. Its unlike anything Ive ever seen in my career.
"Trade talks aimed at producing a deal that would add billions of dollars to the world economy collapsed in their ninth day as rich and poor nations refused to make market-opening concessions and accused each other of intransigence, according to a trade negotiator."
Emerging market countries understand now that they must be self supporting food wise and cannot rely on oversuppy Western AG for needed food staples.
Merrill Lynch's (MER) renewed attempt Monday to unload beleaguered subprime securities at a steep discount could be the big splash into the pool that gets the party started for other banks in the same situation.
Here's the formula. You run a restaurant chain. Costs are increasing by 1% per month. If you were smart, you would increase your prices by 1% per month.
Better yet, just make the portions smaller and keep the price the same. Few people are going to notice.
Although the dreaded trend of daily bank failures has yet to materialize, bankruptcies and assorted death rattles of household-name retailers are becoming frequent and obvious.
Well, I guess we find out if that new construction is done right. Theoretically the wood frame houses recently built in Chino Hills (home to many McMansion farms) should be minimally affected by this.
awgee wrote, "It seems that everything in the media ways that this is the endgame or close to the end of the writedowns. And it seems to me they have been saying that every time any financial institution comes up with bad news."
It is peculiar, isn't it? Time and again, the same old spin.
2) Ask whomever answers, "Is your refrigerator running?"
3) If the answer is "yes," reply, "then you'd better go catch it." Respond with hearty laugh to all other reactions, including sobbing, obscenities and hang-ups.
jeez, if they'd cut their portion size in half, they could've improved public health and their bank situation.
Bad accounting everywhere!!
WSJ
On the Table: the Calories
Lurking in Restaurant Food
July 29, 2008; Page D1
"... even dietitians often underestimate how many calories dishes contain, and no wonder. Applebee's Fiesta Lime Chicken packs 1,290 calories. Pizzeria Uno's Individual Chicago Classic (serves one) has 2,310. Who could eat another bite after an appetizer like T.G.I. Friday's Jack Daniel's Sampler at 2,330? Bear in mind that to maintain their present weight, most men should consume from 2,000 to 2,500 calories a day; most women from 1,500 to 1,800, depending on activity level and size."
I guess this dietary stuff is what they call off-balance-sheet accounting? So reminiscent of this:
Earlier in January, the Mortgage Bankers Association had asked FASB if the industry could employ an older accounting rule known as FAS 5 in calculating loan impairments, rather than the current standard known as FAS 114. In short, assessing impairments under FAS 5 is relatively easier and only requires an evaluation of whether or not principal is likely to be paid back; FAS 114 requires fair value assessment of a loan, and calculation of both principal and interest cash flows.
FAS 5 can lead to substantially lower recorded impairment values, and helped fuel the S&L crisis of the late 1980s; FAS 114 was FASBs response...."
Actually, it is my understanding that only half 300 would probably close as they are owned by the corporations. The other half are owned by franchises which could stay open but who is going to provide their food to them. I suspect all the franchisers will wind down as well.
OT, but today I was in a Burlington Coat Factory. (I know...its not the poshest, but I've got little kids, they need coats, what can I say?) Anyway, they weren't running the A/C. Just fans. Its July, in Illinois. Its hot. Kids don't want to try on coats in July when its hot. Plus, the coats were cheap. Super cheap. Cheaper than I can ever remember. Weird.
Greasy Hair Shelia Bair testified today that it would be better for taxpayers and the deposit insurance fund (what' left of it) to merge Bennigan's with FDIC to grease those 900 failing banks. Bair had no comment on Mervyn's closure but it was obvious she shops there.
c&c if you happen to look back in, [strike]aren't[/strike] weren't there still two B'gans on Michigan Ave. downtown? In their heyday there was one opposit the Art Institute and another at I guess S. Water under the Doral.
I've been to Chi as recently as last month, but it didn't occur to me to pay attention to what actually was operating in those spots. (After all, they were just B'gans.) That really is a cold story about how they seem to have handled this with their employees, though.
Speaking of bankruptcies. Looks like one of the benefactors of not just an extreme makeover home, but an extra 250k gift plus the largest exteme makeover home to date at that time decided to do the equity ATM refi and lost all their money in you guessed it a construction business!!! Sad state of affairs when you are given something like this and you squander it.
I ate there a few weeks ago, near king of prussia PA. The beer taps were all screwed up, wrong beer on wrong taps, the food was overpriced, and cold, and the staff was inexperienced and rude. I thought it was odd for a chain restaurant but never gave it that much thought, except I vowed never to eat there again.
CHECK IT OUT.
Some banks now foreclosing, then letting foreclosed borrower stay in
house and buy it back with normal bank loan for hugely reduced price.
About as bitter good riddance as Currently Smokin'.
Steak and Ale provided me with the single worst professional dinner I have ever had in my life. Cold, wrong, awful and an hour late. Atl Convention Center location, what a misery. Thank god I knew the guy well, only check I've ever walked on and we felt no guilt.
i went into local mini mart yesterday to buy my usual newports from the pakistani guy who owns the joint. he seemed ornery and i asked him how bizz was lately? he immediately responded that business sucks and he said his usual customers are all broke. he has owned it for 17 yrs..the store is located in a prime location in nj, a 0.5 mile from affluent neighborhoods. he wasnt telling me this 3 months ago...i genuinely feel that june started this whole consumer lockup. the consumer is tapped out...this is a store people get cigs, condoms, and lottery tixx from..thats it..also, all the golf clubs around here are hurting bad..no one playing golf anymore...
I work for a company that manages and tracks gift cards, and I've been following retailers filing for bankruptcy on savvywallet.com. Ponderosa and Bonanza are still accepting Metromedia gift cards. I'm not sure about franchise owned Bennigans's. My advice? Go spend your gift cards, we simply do not know how long they will be accepting them. Don't forget The Sharper Image incident: $25m in unused gift cards.
deflation vs inflation: sure looks like deflation is now winning after inflation seemed to have won a few months ago. the deleveraging is so massive right now along with the economy in what is now in a freefall. but will it be a deflation like the 30's? no chance. our currency had a gold standard then unlike now. the us dollar traded like gold as there simply wasnt enough dollars to go around. and there was way too much inventory. now, all currencies of the world are fiat. it is simply impossible for dollars to become scarce this time around. there are too many of them which is why we have this problem in the first place. granted, there are only 800 bln us dollars in physical existence (matching the 800 bln treasuries the fed owns as collateral on these 800 bln physical dollars). so if the bank runs continue to gain pace, there will defntely be a short term scarcity for the physical us dollar. this is so when u consider that there are some 7trillion fdic insured us dollar deposits out there presently. after the race for the 800 bln physical dollars grows chaotic, the fed will HAVE to print shortly thereafter, like weimar..thats when milk goes to 10$ a gallon.
Hell, I'm going to miss ol' Ted Stevens and his pithy explanations of technology:
"Ten movies streaming across that, that Internet, and what happens to your own personal Internet? I just the other day got... an Internet was sent by my staff at 10 o'clock in the morning on Friday, I got it yesterday. Why? Because it got tangled up with all these things going on the Internet commercially.
They want to deliver vast amounts of information over the Internet. And again, the Internet is not something that you just dump something on. It's not a big truck. It's a series of tubes. And if you don't understand, those tubes can be filled and if they are filled, when you put your message in, it gets in line and it's going to be delayed by anyone that puts into that tube enormous amounts of material."
Episode 514: Butters' Very Own Episode - Bennigan's Jingle
For family fun and great food, too, come on down to... Bennigan's
Buffalo wings and partridge scones, plus cru found at... Bennigan's
So come and eat at... Bennigan's.
You'll love all our... shenanigans...
Here's the deal. People cannot afford to eat out, Bennigan's could not raise prices (if it could have it would have) nor could it lower them to attract business because its debt load was too high. Simply put, Bennigan's was overleveraged with enormous debt and no way to pay it back.
Bankruptcy is going to be the final resting place for many restaurants, small corporations, and even entire malls in the same predicament. Yes, this is deflation at work.
Expect to see more restaurants close without warning. Also, it's very important to remember that it was primarily service jobs that kept this economy running. The service sector is now at long last starting to crumble. Unemployment is poised to soar.
The location across from the Art Institute is closed.....don't know about the other, but if it was still there, closed, too. Only 4 franchises still open in area; 1 in Elgin. 3 in NW In.
The chain will close more than 300 Steak and Ale, Bennigan's and Tavern restaurants in one of the largest restaurant bankruptcy filings. According to the Journal, the restaurants are not likely to reopen, however, Ponderosa and Bonanza, two chains also operated by Metromedia, will not close.
The bankruptcy comes at a time when restaurant chains are suffering from high food prices and a drop in consumer spending. Many other chains are struggling, including the Village Inn, Bakers Square and Old Country Buffet, whose parent company filed for Chapter 11 earlier this year
Top 10%
Damn!!! No more Bennigans
Thinking of Bennigan's - Clips - South Park Studios
My cardiologist will be so happy.
Will Applebee's or TGI Friday's be next?
More empty space available. More bad debt. More consumer ripples.
Here comes that reinforcing death spiral....
.....................
The stock market is treating the Merrill Lynch news as good for equities. I don't get it. What exactly would be bad news?
Bennigan's, why is it always Ben Ben Ben Ben again? So sick of this guy.
awgee writes:
The stock market is treating the Merrill Lynch news as good for equities. I don't get it. What exactly would be bad news?
No such thing as bad news... merrill's write down shows that we've reached the bottom!
Thats it we're going back up from here....
................
I used to eat there. The food was good. The Nachos especially. Haven't been there in probably 10 years or so. Not the fault of the restaurant. There just aren't any near my work.
What to do with all the excess "flare" now?
What to do with all the excess "flare" now?
use them to signal for help.
protip: "flair"
yours in Christ,
isamu
"No such thing as bad news... merrill's write down shows that we've reached the bottom!
Thats it we're going back up from here."
It seems that everything in the media ways that this is the endgame or close to the end of the writedowns. And it seems to me they have been saying that every time any financial institution comes up with bad news.
I don't see it as the endgame. And I can not understand how these banks are still solvent. I am feeling so stupid. What am I missing?
I read they have over 800 stores and generate over $800 million in annual revenue.
Seems kind of low to me. Only $1 million per restaraunt. No wonder they went bankrupt.
awgee - someone still has to give me an answer to the following:
Where are the earnings going to come from in the next 5 years?
The stock market is treating the Merrill Lynch news as good for equities. I don't get it. What exactly would be bad news?
In the short-term news doesn't really matter unless it's a major unexpected shock, or an agreed upon signal for starting another short squeezing rally.
Dummy me, when I saw the headline that it was the "endgame" for Merrill Lynch with these writedowns, I thought it meant Merrill was at the end of its game, and would soon be another failed institution that is too big to fail. Of course, it instead meant clear sailing from here.
I wonder how much Merrill wrote down the value of its liabilities. As it approaches the real endgame, it's liabilities will/can be written down to fair value. Anybody want a Merrill Lynch bond just now?
310 stores in ten countries per the Bloomberg piece...
Bennigan's, Steak-and-Ale Chains Seek Bankruptcy (Update1)
By Erik Larson
July 29 (Bloomberg) -- Bennigan's and Steak-and-Ale restaurant chains, owned by Metromedia Restaurant Group, sought permission to liquidate in bankruptcy court protection.
[snip]
Does this mean more market share for the remaining steak houses? Outback should love that news.
I love these spontaneous rallies in the dollar, take a gander at DX from 10am to noon...
DX graph
But it's not even friday...
Don't forget more unemployment.
There was a Bennigans here in Vernon CT that has been closed for about 2 years- actually the food was not all that bad- the company just expanded beyond its means.
WAPO
The Man Behind the Byline Isn't Behind the Article. So, Who Is?
Jeffrey H. Birnbaum - The Man Behind the Byline Isn't Behind the Article. So, Who Is? - washingtonpost.com
Their food fucking sucked anyway. Now if we can only get Ruby Tuesday, cracker barrel TGIFridays to BK this will be a trend
HOLY SH1T! Most of the family still lives in Alaska - whoowee!
Sen. Stevens of Alaska faces criminal charges
11 minutes ago
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Sen. Ted Stevens from Alaska, the longest serving U.S. Republican senator ever, was indicted on seven counts related to his holding of public office, a federal law enforcement official said on Tuesday.
[snip]
Eecon,
your analysis/input on this matter greatly appreciated.
INO Futures and Commodities - Energy - RBOB CRACK SWAP Dec 2009 (NYMEX:RM.Z09) Price Chart and Quote
They won't be missed.
Here's the formula. You run a restaurant chain. Costs are increasing by 1% per month. If you were smart, you would increase your prices by 1% per month.
But is that smart? Well, you're only half full. And every other restaurant in town is only half full.
But it's smart anyway. You can't give away loss-leader meals.
Only two years ago, you borrowed tens of million of dollars to build, buy and expand. The cost of that debt is 12% heading to 16%. You have to pay off your debt so you have to stay busy. You have no choice but to give meals away for less than they cost.
It's the leveraged chains that are in trouble. Debt-free restaurants can last a long time even in a recession.
This reflects huge margin compression for the refiners, no? I suspect we will see moderate improvement with the fall in oil prices, but with declining utilization and falling miles driven its hard to see how it will improve dramatically...
TOTALLY AND COMPLETELY OT:
Anyone with an interest to protect in Alaska US Senate race should go donate to Mark Begich's campaign - just sayi
check oct,nov,dec contracts...
is huge and understatement! omg
I love these spontaneous rallies in the dollar, take a gander at DX from 10am to noon...
I kinda thought we might have a little rally on the dollar from the 72. Seems to have worked out that way. A gambling man might have bought some FXE puts when the Euro hit 160.
Me being a paragon of morality on the other hand...
Bennigan's. . . I've never heard of them. Where are they located? I tried accessing their website, but it isn't loading.
OE,
Are those flatlines on the Sep/Oct contracts, like 'no bid'?!
Good riddance.
Having worked at the South Coast Plaza Bennigan's as a teen, this is good news for humanity. In addition to horrible food safety, those bastards made us practice "the Four Windows," where we were threatened with termination if we didn't say things like, "Can I start you off with some delicious hot buffalo wings or maybe an order of our world famous crispy fried mozzarella?"
Toilet water in the water pitchers. Dates changed on aging raw chicken. And spies who monitored your adjectives. Oh thank God they are gone from this Earth.
Janet, if you're out there, you suck.
I know Florida has a bunch of Bennigan's. I've been to a few. They remind me of a TGI Friday's or a Red Robin's. Basically, beer, munchies, lunch and dinner, typically burgers.
Now Hooters, that's a joint that's gonna outlast the recession. I've been to the original in Clearwater, Florida. "Delightfully tacky, yet unrefined." Oh, and boobs, too.
Wow! They need to get into covered bonds!
The last time I was in Bennigans was over 20 years ago with an alcholic friend of mine. It was a Sunday, 3 or 4 for 1 drinks, I don't remember which. My alky friend kept ordering "Russian Qualudes". They tasted like chocolate milk. I think I drank 12 mixed with some other drinks. I became violently ill and puked gallons in the bushes in front of Bennigans. Haven't been back since.
Hey FFDIC-
Thanks for the linky regarding the latest in lobbying slime.
Currently Smoking Cannabis. Quit bogarting the joint while you type.
"Walking Away" covered by the BBC.
BBC NEWS | Business | America's house price time bomb
"... Traditionally in America there is a social stigma attached to those who default on their debts, which should be a deterrent to walking away from your home.
But according to Susan Wachter, professor of real estate and finance at Wharton School of Business, in the depth of this crisis the social attitudes to such actions are changing.
"This is the kind of conversation that's going on at cocktail parties, at swimming pools," Professor Wachter says. "And suddenly this option which was truly unthinkable in the past becomes thinkable." ...
todays theme music for the market...
Yesterday
YouTube - yesterday
This is too funny
RE - there are a lot of banks walking away from their obligations right now... so what's good for the goose?
I became violently ill and puked gallons in the bushes in front of Bennigans. Haven't been back since.
A couple of years back they installed a POS that only allows 2 drinks per place for risk management reasons.
Booze is where you make your money, and that was when they went to hell in a handbasket. Nothing like cutting off your nose to spite your face.
"This is the kind of conversation that's going on . . . at swimming pools"
That's kinda weird.
The Exchange facilitates crack spread trading in its futures markets by treating both legs of the trade as a single transaction. If a crack spread is a positive number then the price of the refined products is higher than that of crude oil. If the spread is a negative number, the products are priced at less than the cost of crude oil.
not 'no bid' ,just no margin...
i've been looking for a time to dive into the refiner's... vlo, specifically...
"But according to Susan Wachter, professor of real estate and finance at Wharton School of Business, in the depth of this crisis the social attitudes to such actions are changing" Yes. Crime is contagious. If walking away from debts works for billionaires and millionaires it should work for the rest of us. I'm in my early planning stages of my personal debt recovery/loss debt socializating recovery/loss Put America first Too big to fail trickle down the toilet of my debts.
Off Topic, but it looks like it's time to sell glod.
Five Things You Need to Know: Mr. T Gold Indicator Gives Sell Signal-Minyanville
I prefer this for the market music of the day:
YouTube -
I am short Glod.
Glod is dead.
Seems like Mr. Market is anticipating negative refining margins then...when I ran that chart out to max the crack spread was $12 back in early 2007.
Where does VLO get most of their crude? Wasn't one of the refiners just given some grim news by Mexico with respect to supply due to the worsening decline rate they are experiencing?
Glod the Impaler?
The HK glod ETF opens very soon. The Asians are on the way with their dolla bills. They love glod.
Starbucks Cuts 1,000 Jobs; Makes Executive Changes
Starbucks Cuts 1,000 Jobs, Makes Executive Changes (Correct) - Bloomberg.com
"....shut three-fourths of its 84 stores in Australia "
"...cutting almost 1,000 jobs and making additional executive changes."
FT.com / Commodities - HK launches its first gold ETF
Whoops. I snoozed.
HK launches its first gold ETF
By Andrew Wood in Hong Kong
Published: July 24 2008 16:25 | Last updated: July 24 2008 16:25
Hong Kongs first exchange-traded fund to track the price of gold has been launched to take advantage of interest in the precious metal as its price remains close to record highs and investors in Asia look for ways to hedge against inflation.
Ni Hao, friends.
Sen. Stevens of Alaska Indicted in Corruption Inquiry
SENATOR CHARGED IN SCHEME TO HIDE GIFTS OF OIL FIRM - NY Times
If a refiner expects crude prices to hold steady, or rise
somewhat, while products fall (a declining crack spread),
the refiner would sell the crack; that is, he would buy
crude futures and sell gasoline and heating oil futures.
in this case, a lot of crack was sold(chuckle, chuckle)
i'm looking for margins to improve, like you and other's have surmised over the weeks and months as crude went crazy, and for the refiners to now play catch-up.
i wanna buy the crack...
Stevens indicted for 7 felony counts of making false statements
CSC-that was refreshing outside of that bridge being very low and hitting my shorts square in the head..
Damn that hurts..time for a fatty...
Actually with the huge runup today I'm surprised how well skf is holding...
Here yah go, now have fun !!
YouTube - Chieftains & Friends
I am short glod as well. It's a late-stage cyclical, not a religion.
YouTube - Sinead O'Connor & the Chieftains- The Foggy Dew
Nothing here except healthy rotation. Homebuilders -> banks -> consumer retail -> restaurants. It is all contained to one sector at a time.
FWIW in the consumerspace this Dawg predicts PetCo nudging out PetSmart in the implosion contest.
The stock market is treating the Merrill Lynch news as good for equities. I don't get it. What exactly would be bad news?
shorts covering, taking profits, normal market moves.
Hmmm financials in a bear market, gold and oil well off their highs...
Doesn't sound inflationary anymore eh?
"I am short glod as well. It's a late-stage cyclical, not a religion"
I was short until yesterday. Maybe I got out a little early. If we get a market swoon concurrent with servere dollar weakness, maybe on a huge miss Friday in jobs gold could gap higher.
WSJ - Obama to Meet With Bernanke
"As part of a week-long shift back to economic issues, Barack Obama will meet with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Tuesday, his campaign confirmed. The two are expected to discuss the current credit crisis and Sen. Obama's plans to enforce tougher oversight of financial institutions if elected president. The likely Democratic nominee is also scheduled to speak to Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson by phone Tuesday, campaign officials said."
Obama, Bernanke Talk Economy - WSJ.com
Our future:
Brittle and gritty - and as revolting as they sound - these are "mud cakes". For years they have been consumed by impoverished pregnant women seeking calcium, a risky and medically unproven supplement, but now the cakes have become a staple for entire families.
Haiti: Mud cakes become staple diet as cost of food soars beyond a family's reach |
World news |
The Guardian
Well, I am long gold. This is the doldrums season for gold. It will have its day again in a few months.
PM Summer Doldrums
Merrilly making "all the right moves" says descendant of founder. Sure, like moving all those chairs on the deck of the Titanic.
Merrill CEO making right moves: Win Smith
| Global Industries
| Financial Services
| Reuters
CSC I see a untapped global market for the NBA in that picture...
Huh, wonder what the heck they're going to do with that monstorous faux tudor Steak and Ale building smack dab in the center of my town.
Ye Olde Nail Salon perhaps.
Scenes from the future.
YouTube - The Kinks - Dead End Street
Gold is down due to the latest bear market rally. Systemic problems in the US economy haven't changed
Looking for others to go: Starbucks, Denny's, Village Whatever, Whataburger, etc., etc. Good riddance of bad.....well...you know.
This is nonsense they can just go back to the capital market and...oh wait...
Out shopping in Tucson this morning and I have to admit supermarket seemed very empty, streets with few cars.....I begin to think the signs of recession are here....
Where does VLO get most of their crude? Wasn't one of the refiners just given some grim news by Mexico with respect to supply due to the worsening decline rate they are experiencing?
EIA has this information for you...
Company Level Imports
Wait until Target folds to Walmart...now that would be something...
Time to flush the $24 worth of gift cards I have left.
Wanted some of their potato soup next time I had to go to CT.
I didn't even realize Steak and Ale was still around.
WTO Talks in Geneva Collapse, Trade Negotiator Says
WTO Talks in Geneva Collapse, Trade Negotiator Says (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Trade talks aimed at producing a deal that would add billions of dollars to the world economy collapsed in their ninth day as rich and poor nations refused to make market-opening concessions and accused each other of intransigence, according to a trade negotiator.
...
Gold is down due to the latest bear market rally. Systemic problems in the US economy haven't changed
If glod is juiced up with leverage, then systemic problems could hammer it too.
"Well, I am long gold. This is the doldrums season for gold. It will have its day again in a few months.
"
My time frame is very, very short. My methods require me to hit many, many singles.
What are these "months" of which you speak?
I just wonder if this pump isn't becse some other news is imminent.. and bad at that..
C'mon Mer push! Push
Anyone know when the MER writeups are coming?
zack,
"I love these spontaneous rallies in the dollar,"
Japs need a weaker currency so they can sell us crap just like everyone else, the problem is we need the same thing. Interest rates are going up or dollar is going to have to fall or a combination to pay for the explosion that will hit Fannie and her fat little bro along with some of the other banks which the taxpayers will be forced to pay for no other options. This is noise posibably CB, Hedges and Momma Saun playing carry trade will get their asses burned again. S&P 1310 then short it again.
Japan CB is screwing their citizens for the benefit of large corporations just like the US is screwing theirs.
"RE writes:
Well, I am long gold. This is the doldrums season for gold. It will have its day again in a few months."
As I've said before, I'm long gold as long as the Bush Administration is still in power. He's 'way too capable of giving the world the middle finger just before he ducks out the door.
As for restaurants, the independents that I know personally are struggling with cost control but keeping their heads above water. They're much more agile than hierarchical corporate chains in their strategizing and decision-making.
And of course, they don't have the debt load. Which results in amusing scenes like the owner of the place on the floor of the scullery with his tool belt, peering into the guts of a dishwasher that should have been replaced years ago.
XLF Hit its 50 day MA came down then bounced off its 20 day MA today, anyone else think that it is just a technical bounce?
oops,
months are the time you take after hitting .800 plus in singles.
What are these "months" of which you speak?
Any serious gold investor has to be aware of gold's seasonality. Have a look at the first chart in the article I linked above.
PM Summer Doldrums
Alphonso Prince, manager of the Bennigan's at 1250 Torrence Ave. in Calumet City, said he was notified of the shutdown at 12:10 a.m. from his area director, who was crying on the telephone. He said there was no forewarning about the shutdown.
"I'm angry," Prince said. "I'm hurt; I'm devastated."
"No blast of e-mails, nothing to say, 'Sorry, we just can't do it anymore,'" Prince continued, "just a phone call from my area director who doesn't know anything, because she just found out. She'd been with the company for 21 years."
Bennigan's Restaurants Shut Down Nationwide - cbs2chicago.com
Here's the formula. You run a restaurant chain. Costs are increasing by 1% per month. If you were smart, you would increase your prices by 1% per month.
The US chains have focused on increasing table turns for the last decade and now its comming back to bite them.
The entire US dining experience has been built around getting your butt out of the table as fast as possible. Restaurants are built to be noisy and brightly lit to discourage intimate conversation. Rooms are kept too cold so women are uncomfortable after 30 minutes. Meals are jumbo sized to discourage staying for dessert.
And if that doesn't work the waitress shows up at the table after 30 minutes with the bill in hand asking if "You want anything else". For those that can tolerate lingering beyond 30 minutes clearing the table or "checking" on you every 5 minutes give the hint.
Not really a great strategy when the the restaurant is half full most nights.
Tanta,
Apparently there's anecdotal evidence on the ground for increased walkaways:
San Jose bankruptcies lead Bay Area - ContraCostaTimes.com
Whats different about this new wave is the number of people who are simply walking away from their houses, said the Northern District of Californias Chief Bankruptcy Judge Randall Newsome, who has overseen bankruptcy filings for two decades. Its unlike anything Ive ever seen in my career.
crispy&cole
When They were seating 2 people that Satuday night should have been a sign that Ben's was going to fall on hard times...
"Trade talks aimed at producing a deal that would add billions of dollars to the world economy collapsed in their ninth day as rich and poor nations refused to make market-opening concessions and accused each other of intransigence, according to a trade negotiator."
Emerging market countries understand now that they must be self supporting food wise and cannot rely on oversuppy Western AG for needed food staples.
What's wrong with Whataburger???
Heathens.
awgee wrote:
The stock market is treating the Merrill Lynch news as good for equities. I don't get it. What exactly would be bad news?
Bad news would be high savings, low debt, profits and no national debt...sarcasm off!
Merrill Lynch's (MER) renewed attempt Monday to unload beleaguered subprime securities at a steep discount could be the big splash into the pool that gets the party started for other banks in the same situation.
Let's get this party started!!!
Currently Smoking Cannabis wrote:
Good riddance. Janet, if you're out there, you suck.
How insensitive...can't we all just get along? BTW what is Janet's phone number?
Earthquake in Orange County CA. That was fun. Felt close, fun ride, but no damage.
Here's the formula. You run a restaurant chain. Costs are increasing by 1% per month. If you were smart, you would increase your prices by 1% per month.
Better yet, just make the portions smaller and keep the price the same. Few people are going to notice.
Fair Economist - yikes.
5.6 quake downtown LA
Although the dreaded trend of daily bank failures has yet to materialize, bankruptcies and assorted death rattles of household-name retailers are becoming frequent and obvious.
What, if anything, does this mean?
5.8 Chino hills. There will be some damage, hardly the end of the world. I thought it was a 5 right under me, which is no big deal.
404 Not Found
What, if anything, does this mean?
The writeups are coming...
Well, I guess we find out if that new construction is done right. Theoretically the wood frame houses recently built in Chino Hills (home to many McMansion farms) should be minimally affected by this.
Fair Economist - prices will only go up from here.
Clearly this is a sign that the bottom has arrived.
awgee wrote, "It seems that everything in the media ways that this is the endgame or close to the end of the writedowns. And it seems to me they have been saying that every time any financial institution comes up with bad news."
It is peculiar, isn't it? Time and again, the same old spin.
I just checked the earthquake map and it shows up nice and red.
Recent Earthquakes in California and Nevada - Index Map
Is it still too late to short Bennigans?
1) Call local Bennigan's.
2) Ask whomever answers, "Is your refrigerator running?"
3) If the answer is "yes," reply, "then you'd better go catch it." Respond with hearty laugh to all other reactions, including sobbing, obscenities and hang-ups.
jeez, if they'd cut their portion size in half, they could've improved public health and their bank situation.
Bad accounting everywhere!!
WSJ
On the Table: the Calories
Lurking in Restaurant Food
July 29, 2008; Page D1
"... even dietitians often underestimate how many calories dishes contain, and no wonder. Applebee's Fiesta Lime Chicken packs 1,290 calories. Pizzeria Uno's Individual Chicago Classic (serves one) has 2,310. Who could eat another bite after an appetizer like T.G.I. Friday's Jack Daniel's Sampler at 2,330? Bear in mind that to maintain their present weight, most men should consume from 2,000 to 2,500 calories a day; most women from 1,500 to 1,800, depending on activity level and size."
I guess this dietary stuff is what they call off-balance-sheet accounting? So reminiscent of this:
Revenge of the Nerds: QSPEs an Endangered Species : HousingWire || financial news for the mortgage market
"... FASB tips its hand
Earlier in January, the Mortgage Bankers Association had asked FASB if the industry could employ an older accounting rule known as FAS 5 in calculating loan impairments, rather than the current standard known as FAS 114. In short, assessing impairments under FAS 5 is relatively easier and only requires an evaluation of whether or not principal is likely to be paid back; FAS 114 requires fair value assessment of a loan, and calculation of both principal and interest cash flows.
FAS 5 can lead to substantially lower recorded impairment values, and helped fuel the S&L crisis of the late 1980s; FAS 114 was FASBs response...."
But at least historically the food itself is just not where the costs are, that's why portions got so big.
Although with inflation we've all individually seen at the supermarket, maybe it's not so true anymore.
Actually, it is my understanding that only half 300 would probably close as they are owned by the corporations. The other half are owned by franchises which could stay open but who is going to provide their food to them. I suspect all the franchisers will wind down as well.
OT, but today I was in a Burlington Coat Factory. (I know...its not the poshest, but I've got little kids, they need coats, what can I say?) Anyway, they weren't running the A/C. Just fans. Its July, in Illinois. Its hot. Kids don't want to try on coats in July when its hot. Plus, the coats were cheap. Super cheap. Cheaper than I can ever remember. Weird.
Greasy Hair Shelia Bair testified today that it would be better for taxpayers and the deposit insurance fund (what' left of it) to merge Bennigan's with FDIC to grease those 900 failing banks. Bair had no comment on Mervyn's closure but it was obvious she shops there.
c&c if you happen to look back in, [strike]aren't[/strike] weren't there still two B'gans on Michigan Ave. downtown? In their heyday there was one opposit the Art Institute and another at I guess S. Water under the Doral.
I've been to Chi as recently as last month, but it didn't occur to me to pay attention to what actually was operating in those spots. (After all, they were just B'gans.) That really is a cold story about how they seem to have handled this with their employees, though.
'Extreme Makeover' house faces foreclosure
Speaking of bankruptcies. Looks like one of the benefactors of not just an extreme makeover home, but an extra 250k gift plus the largest exteme makeover home to date at that time decided to do the equity ATM refi and lost all their money in you guessed it a construction business!!! Sad state of affairs when you are given something like this and you squander it.
I ate there a few weeks ago, near king of prussia PA. The beer taps were all screwed up, wrong beer on wrong taps, the food was overpriced, and cold, and the staff was inexperienced and rude. I thought it was odd for a chain restaurant but never gave it that much thought, except I vowed never to eat there again.
CHECK IT OUT.
Some banks now foreclosing, then letting foreclosed borrower stay in
house and buy it back with normal bank loan for hugely reduced price.
Has anyone else heard of this?
Lenders selling foreclosed property to those foreclosed upon [General] - MarketTicker Forums
About as bitter good riddance as Currently Smokin'.
Steak and Ale provided me with the single worst professional dinner I have ever had in my life. Cold, wrong, awful and an hour late. Atl Convention Center location, what a misery. Thank god I knew the guy well, only check I've ever walked on and we felt no guilt.
No regrets at the passing.
i went into local mini mart yesterday to buy my usual newports from the pakistani guy who owns the joint. he seemed ornery and i asked him how bizz was lately? he immediately responded that business sucks and he said his usual customers are all broke. he has owned it for 17 yrs..the store is located in a prime location in nj, a 0.5 mile from affluent neighborhoods. he wasnt telling me this 3 months ago...i genuinely feel that june started this whole consumer lockup. the consumer is tapped out...this is a store people get cigs, condoms, and lottery tixx from..thats it..also, all the golf clubs around here are hurting bad..no one playing golf anymore...
I work for a company that manages and tracks gift cards, and I've been following retailers filing for bankruptcy on savvywallet.com. Ponderosa and Bonanza are still accepting Metromedia gift cards. I'm not sure about franchise owned Bennigans's. My advice? Go spend your gift cards, we simply do not know how long they will be accepting them. Don't forget The Sharper Image incident: $25m in unused gift cards.
.
RE writes:
"Walking Away" covered by the BBC.
Once again, an article completely devoid of actual facts about more than a single voluntary walk away, though at least the article admits this:
"It is impossible to know for sure how many of the people who are now walking away from their homes could have gone on paying their mortgages."
If TGI McScratchy's goes under, then we'll know the bottom's in.
deflation vs inflation: sure looks like deflation is now winning after inflation seemed to have won a few months ago. the deleveraging is so massive right now along with the economy in what is now in a freefall. but will it be a deflation like the 30's? no chance. our currency had a gold standard then unlike now. the us dollar traded like gold as there simply wasnt enough dollars to go around. and there was way too much inventory. now, all currencies of the world are fiat. it is simply impossible for dollars to become scarce this time around. there are too many of them which is why we have this problem in the first place. granted, there are only 800 bln us dollars in physical existence (matching the 800 bln treasuries the fed owns as collateral on these 800 bln physical dollars). so if the bank runs continue to gain pace, there will defntely be a short term scarcity for the physical us dollar. this is so when u consider that there are some 7trillion fdic insured us dollar deposits out there presently. after the race for the 800 bln physical dollars grows chaotic, the fed will HAVE to print shortly thereafter, like weimar..thats when milk goes to 10$ a gallon.
Aleister, that old Kinks music video was done before there were such things as music videos. Great stuff.
Hell, I'm going to miss ol' Ted Stevens and his pithy explanations of technology:
"Ten movies streaming across that, that Internet, and what happens to your own personal Internet? I just the other day got... an Internet was sent by my staff at 10 o'clock in the morning on Friday, I got it yesterday. Why? Because it got tangled up with all these things going on the Internet commercially.
They want to deliver vast amounts of information over the Internet. And again, the Internet is not something that you just dump something on. It's not a big truck. It's a series of tubes. And if you don't understand, those tubes can be filled and if they are filled, when you put your message in, it gets in line and it's going to be delayed by anyone that puts into that tube enormous amounts of material."
Butters is crying:
Episode 514: Butters' Very Own Episode - Bennigan's Jingle
For family fun and great food, too, come on down to... Bennigan's
Buffalo wings and partridge scones, plus cru found at... Bennigan's
So come and eat at... Bennigan's.
You'll love all our... shenanigans...
Thinking of Bennigan's - Clips - South Park Studios
Here's the deal. People cannot afford to eat out, Bennigan's could not raise prices (if it could have it would have) nor could it lower them to attract business because its debt load was too high. Simply put, Bennigan's was overleveraged with enormous debt and no way to pay it back.
Bankruptcy is going to be the final resting place for many restaurants, small corporations, and even entire malls in the same predicament. Yes, this is deflation at work.
Expect to see more restaurants close without warning. Also, it's very important to remember that it was primarily service jobs that kept this economy running. The service sector is now at long last starting to crumble. Unemployment is poised to soar.
^^^^^From seeking alpha
Wow how surprising. Last 4 times I went to a Bennigans, it was terrible. Chili's is just so much better in every regard.
Will miss Bennigan's Death by Chocholate - a stand-alone meal.
does anyone think the smashing pumpkins were as good as i do?
Re: Bennigan's,
The location across from the Art Institute is closed.....don't know about the other, but if it was still there, closed, too. Only 4 franchises still open in area; 1 in Elgin. 3 in NW In.
old trader
The chain will close more than 300 Steak and Ale, Bennigan's and Tavern restaurants in one of the largest restaurant bankruptcy filings. According to the Journal, the restaurants are not likely to reopen, however, Ponderosa and Bonanza, two chains also operated by Metromedia, will not close.
The bankruptcy comes at a time when restaurant chains are suffering from high food prices and a drop in consumer spending. Many other chains are struggling, including the Village Inn, Bakers Square and Old Country Buffet, whose parent company filed for Chapter 11 earlier this year
Owned by Metromedia Restaurant Group. Would that be a private company of John Kluge?